MLB Grind Down: Friday, September 23rd

by Derek Farnsworth (Notorious) Last Updated 2016-09-24 01:24:03

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The RotoGrinders MLB Grind Down will give you an in-depth analysis into the upcoming MLB schedule. This article will break down the numbers for every single game and give you analysis on which trends you can exploit. While matchups are a major factor in daily fantasy baseball, there are plenty of other factors to consider such as injuries, weather, and salaries.

The analysis should point you in the right direction, but it is still up to you to decipher the information and make your own selections. No sport has more variance than baseball. The best choice is not always the right choice but following the trends will win you money over time.

Note: As always, if you want to try a new DFS site, be sure to click through a RotoGrinders link and use our DraftKings promo code and FanDuel promo code to receive the best perks in the industry.

Stackability Rating System:

GREEN – One of the top stacks of the day, viable in cash games and GPPs
YELLOW – A viable stack option in most formats, specifically GPPs
ORANGE – There are better stacks out there, but playable in large GPPs
RED – Not a recommended stack for cash games or GPPs

St. Louis at Chicago Cubs – 2:20 PM ET

Stats	wOBA	HR All.	HC%	K%	Stats	wOBA	HR All.	HC%	K%
St. Louis					Chicago Cubs
			Mike Leake					Jake Arrieta
			RIGHT					RIGHT
			Vegas Moneyline					Vegas Over/Under
			CHC -220					8.0
SP vs. Left (2016)	0.321	13	31.0%	17.2%	SP vs. Left (2016)	0.262	6	30.1%	24.9%
SP vs. Right (2016)	0.323	7	32.1%	15.9%	SP vs. Right (2016)	0.246	9	21.2%	22.5%

Pitcher Grind Down

Statistics	Starts	PitchPS	SIERA	ERA	K%	BB%	SS%	GB%	FB%	HC%
Mike Leake
					FanDuel			DraftKings
					Salary:		$7,000	Salary:		$5,400
					FPPG:		22.3	FPPG:		10.8
					Pitcher Rating:		50.8	Pitcher Rank:		19
L30 Days	4	88.8	3.89	3.09	18.0%	4.0%	7.9%	49.3%	25.3%	35.1%
2016	28	89.1	3.91	4.54	16.5%	3.8%	7.1%	53.3%	25.3%	31.6%
2015	30	91.8	4.19	3.70	15.3%	6.3%	6.3%	51.8%	26.6%	28.8%

Home (2015-16):—ERA: 4.58 — K%: 15.5% — wOBA Allowed: 0.320
Away (2015-16):—ERA: 3.69 — K%: 16.2% — wOBA Allowed: 0.299

Leake is a better pitcher in real life than he is in daily fantasy. In 28 starts this season, he has a 3.91 SIERA with a strikeout rate of only 16.5%. He typically doesn’t pitch deep into games and he doesn’t have enough upside to make him a viable fantasy play. He draws a difficult matchup against the Cubs, who are ranked eighth in team wOBA against right-handed pitching and third in runs scored per game. Arrieta is the preferred target in this game.

Statistics	Starts	PitchPS	SIERA	ERA	K%	BB%	SS%	GB%	FB%	HC%
Jake Arrieta
					FanDuel			DraftKings
					Salary:		$10,800	Salary:		$10,700
					FPPG:		38.1	FPPG:		20.8
					Pitcher Rating:		86.6	Pitcher Rank:		2
L30 Days	5	96.6	4.60	3.98	19.5%	11.4%	9.3%	54.2%	25.3%	23.8%
2016	29	100.8	4.00	2.96	23.7%	9.8%	10.1%	53.1%	28.2%	25.1%
2015	33	104.2	2.75	1.77	27.1%	5.5%	11.1%	56.2%	22.8%	22.1%

Home (2015-16):—ERA: 2.37 — K%: 27.4% — wOBA Allowed: 0.241
Away (2015-16):—ERA: 2.24 — K%: 23.8% — wOBA Allowed: 0.236

Arrieta hasn’t had the same dominance this season, but he still owns a 2.96 ERA (4.00 SIERA) with a strikeout rate of 23.7%. His swinging strike rate is down slightly, but the biggest difference this season has been his command. He has walked nearly twice as many batters this year. He draws a difficult matchup against the Cardinals, who are ranked fourth in team wOBA and second in team ISO against right-handed pitching this season. Even though he is ranked as the second overall pitcher, he is overpriced given his matchup and current form.

Batter Grind Down

St. Louis

The Cardinals have the lowest implied team total on the board today, but they have a knack of winning games this time of year. They need this game a lot more than the Cubs do, as they are currently battling with the Mets and Giants for the two wildcard spots in the National League. I won’t be targeting any of the Cardinals’ hitters in daily fantasy, but I have a feeling that this game will be closer than Vegas is projecting.

Cardinals Offense (2016)
Team wOBA vs. RHP — 0.331 (4 of 30)
Team wOBA L30 Days — 0.312 (17 of 30)
Team ISO vs. RHP — 0.194 (2 of 30)
Team K% vs. RHP — 21.1% (18 of 30)
Pitches Per PA vs. RHP — 3.84 (21 of 30)
Runs Per Game — 4.79 (5 of 30)
Projected Run Total — 3.31 (30 of 30)

Projected Lineup

#	Player	Bats	wOBA vs. RHP	ISO vs. RHP	HC% vs. RHP	wOBA L14	FD Position	FD Salary	DK Position	DK Salary
1	Matt Carpenter	LEFT	0.388	0.266	47.1%	0.311	2B	$3,500	2B/3B	$3,900
2	Aledmys Diaz	RIGHT	0.396	0.238	35.1%	0.304	SS	$3,300	SS	$4,400
3	Brandon Moss	LEFT	0.350	0.312	42.6%	0.175	1B	$3,200	1B/OF	$3,600
4	Stephen Piscotty	RIGHT	0.319	0.156	33.1%	0.256	OF	$3,100	OF	$3,000
5	Yadier Molina	RIGHT	0.329	0.112	32.7%	0.295	C	$2,500	C	$3,000
6	Jhonny Peralta	RIGHT	0.304	0.153	33.6%	0.225	SS	$2,800	3B	$2,700
7	Randal Grichuk	RIGHT	0.331	0.252	41.9%	0.343	OF	$3,500	OF	$4,200
8	Kolten Wong	LEFT	0.298	0.116	24.6%	0.241	2B	$2,700	2B	$2,600
9	Mike Leake	RIGHT	0.147	0.033	14.3%	0.000	P	$7,000	P	$5,400
	Team Averages	—	0.318	0.182	33.9%	0.239	—	—	—	—

Elite Plays – NONE

Secondary Plays – NONE

Stackability – RED

Chicago Cubs

The Cubs come into this game with the fourth highest implied team total in the slate. Their matchup against Mike Leake isn’t what I would call favorable though, as he is a ground ball pitcher that has held both left and right-handed hitters under a .325 wOBA this season. I’m not going to have a lot of exposure to this game and given the fact that it is only included in the all day slate, it’s an easy one to avoid altogether.

Cubs Offense (2016)
Team wOBA vs. RHP — 0.327 (8 of 30)
Team wOBA L30 Days — 0.316 (14 of 30)
Team ISO vs. RHP — 0.168 (13 of 30)
Team K% vs. RHP — 21.7% (22 of 30)
Pitches Per PA vs. RHP — 3.97 (3 of 30)
Runs Per Game — 4.97 (3 of 30)
Projected Run Total — 4.69 (4 of 30)

Projected Lineup

#	Player	Bats	wOBA vs. RHP	ISO vs. RHP	HC% vs. RHP	wOBA L14	FD Position	FD Salary	DK Position	DK Salary
1	Dexter Fowler	SWITCH	0.356	0.165	28.1%	0.478	OF	$4,000	OF	$5,400
2	Kris Bryant	RIGHT	0.388	0.253	41.2%	0.316	3B	$4,200	3B/OF	$5,000
3	Anthony Rizzo	LEFT	0.408	0.277	39.1%	0.357	1B	$4,500	1B	$5,500
4	Ben Zobrist	SWITCH	0.345	0.159	32.9%	0.293	2B	$3,000	2B	$4,300
5	Addison Russell	RIGHT	0.314	0.163	29.4%	0.338	SS	$2,400	SS	$4,000
6	Jason Heyward	LEFT	0.284	0.097	27.1%	0.348	OF	$2,900	OF	$3,500
7	Javier Baez	RIGHT	0.298	0.142	27.3%	0.313	SS	$3,000	2B/3B	$3,600
8	Miguel Montero	LEFT	0.314	0.161	30.1%	0.347	C	$2,500	C	$3,900
9	Jake Arrieta	RIGHT	0.283	0.189	36.4%	0.000	P	$10,800	P	$10,700
	Team Averages	—	0.332	0.178	32.4%	0.310	—	—	—	—

Elite Plays – NONE

Secondary Plays – Kris Bryant, Anthony Rizzo

Stackability – ORANGE

Arizona at Baltimore – 7:05 PM ET

Stats	wOBA	HR All.	HC%	K%	Stats	wOBA	HR All.	HC%	K%
Arizona					Baltimore
			Shelby Miller					Yovani Gallardo
			RIGHT					RIGHT
			Vegas Moneyline					Vegas Over/Under
			BAL -160					10.0
SP vs. Left (2016)	0.420	9	39.6%	12.9%	SP vs. Left (2016)	0.356	7	29.1%	19.9%
SP vs. Right (2016)	0.335	5	31.8%	17.6%	SP vs. Right (2016)	0.359	9	28.1%	13.0%

Pitcher Grind Down

Statistics	Starts	PitchPS	SIERA	ERA	K%	BB%	SS%	GB%	FB%	HC%
Shelby Miller
					FanDuel			DraftKings
					Salary:		$6,500	Salary:		$4,800
					FPPG:		14.4	FPPG:		5.3
					Pitcher Rating:		36.0	Pitcher Rank:		30
L30 Days	4	91.3	4.89	6.97	12.4%	4.1%	7.1%	41.3%	33.8%	38.8%
2016	18	87.2	5.15	6.90	14.9%	9.1%	7.1%	42.4%	34.6%	36.3%
2015	33	98.4	4.16	3.02	19.9%	8.5%	9.2%	47.7%	34.1%	26.7%

Home (2015-16):—ERA: 4.06 — K%: 20.6% — wOBA Allowed: 0.319
Away (2015-16):—ERA: 4.38 — K%: 15.4% — wOBA Allowed: 0.323

I like to think that I’m a nice person, so rather than saying Miller has been hot garbage on the mound this season, I’ll just say that he has been a letdown. In 18 starts, he has a 5.15 SIERA with a strikeout rate of only 14.9%. His ground ball rate is down this year, while his hard contact rate is up nearly 10%. He grades out as the worst pitching option in the slate, as he takes on a talented Orioles’ offense in Camden Yards.

Statistics	Starts	PitchPS	SIERA	ERA	K%	BB%	SS%	GB%	FB%	HC%
Yovani Gallardo
					FanDuel			DraftKings
					Salary:		$5,600	Salary:		$4,500
					FPPG:		18.4	FPPG:		7.8
					Pitcher Rating:		42.5	Pitcher Rank:		22
L30 Days	5	84.2	4.74	7.94	16.8%	8.4%	6.4%	45.0%	31.3%	26.3%
2016	21	90.8	5.34	5.77	16.1%	11.5%	6.5%	42.9%	37.4%	28.5%
2015	33	97.8	4.59	3.42	15.3%	8.6%	6.5%	49.3%	28.7%	25.5%

Home (2015-16):—ERA: 3.91 — K%: 15.3% — wOBA Allowed: 0.336
Away (2015-16):—ERA: 4.62 — K%: 15.9% — wOBA Allowed: 0.332

~~Speaking of hot garbage~~ Gallardo has also had his struggles on the mound this season, posting a 5.34 SIERA with a strikeout rate of only 16.1%. His command has been off and he hasn’t been able to induce as many ground balls this year. He may be favored tonight, but that says more about the Orioles’ offense than it does anything else. This game has one of the highest over/unders on the board. Gallardo can be avoided in all league formats.

Batter Grind Down

Arizona

The Diamondbacks are typically an offense that we like to target at home, but we have to love the spot tonight against Yovani Gallardo. On the season, he has allowed a .356+ wOBA to both left and right-handed hitters. The Diamondbacks also see a lateral ballpark shift playing in the hitter-friendly Camden Yards.

Diamondbacks Offense (2016)
Team wOBA vs. RHP — 0.313 (18 of 30)
Team wOBA L30 Days — 0.323 (11 of 30)
Team ISO vs. RHP — 0.160 (18 of 30)
Team K% vs. RHP — 22.4% (24 of 30)
Pitches Per PA vs. RHP — 3.85 (20 of 30)
Runs Per Game — 4.66 (10 of 30)
Projected Run Total — 4.65 (6 of 30)

Projected Lineup

#	Player	Bats	wOBA vs. RHP	ISO vs. RHP	HC% vs. RHP	wOBA L14	FD Position	FD Salary	DK Position	DK Salary
1	Jean Segura	RIGHT	0.375	0.169	29.5%	0.418	2B	$3,600	2B	$5,300
2	Chris Owings	RIGHT	0.300	0.129	30.9%	0.275	SS	$2,500	OF/SS	$4,500
3	Paul Goldschmidt	RIGHT	0.366	0.187	35.7%	0.399	1B	$3,900	1B	$5,600
4	Welington Castillo	RIGHT	0.305	0.133	35.2%	0.287	C	$3,000	C	$4,100
5	Jake Lamb	LEFT	0.370	0.285	42.5%	0.283	3B	$2,900	3B	$4,800
6	Yasmany Tomas	RIGHT	0.308	0.206	40.4%	0.411	OF	$2,700	OF	$4,600
7	Brandon Drury	RIGHT	0.337	0.169	31.9%	0.506	OF	$3,600	3B/OF	$4,800
8	Mitch Haniger	RIGHT	0.325	0.155	40.0%	0.356	OF	$2,400	OF	$4,000
9	Socrates Brito	LEFT	0.255	0.194	30.4%	0.230	OF	$2,200	OF	$3,300
	Team Averages	—	0.327	0.181	35.2%	0.352	—	—	—	—

Elite Plays – Jean Segura, Paul Goldschmidt, Jake Lamb

Secondary Plays – Chris Owings, Welington Castillo

Stackability – YELLOW / GREEN

Baltimore

The Orioles have the highest implied team total in the entire slate. They have mashed against right-handed pitching all season, ranking third in team wOBA and first in team ISO. They draw an excellent matchup against Shelby Miller, who has allowed a .420 wOBA to left-handed hitters and a .335 wOBA to right-handed hitters this season.

Orioles Offense (2016)
Team wOBA vs. RHP — 0.336 (3 of 30)
Team wOBA L30 Days — 0.312 (17 of 30)
Team ISO vs. RHP — 0.200 (1 of 30)
Team K% vs. RHP — 21.5% (21 of 30)
Pitches Per PA vs. RHP — 3.85 (18 of 30)
Runs Per Game — 4.64 (11 of 30)
Projected Run Total — 5.35 (1 of 30)

Projected Lineup

#	Player	Bats	wOBA vs. RHP	ISO vs. RHP	HC% vs. RHP	wOBA L14	FD Position	FD Salary	DK Position	DK Salary
1	Adam Jones	RIGHT	0.351	0.203	32.3%	0.325	OF	$3,600	OF	$4,900
2	Hyun-Soo Kim	LEFT	0.362	0.112	31.3%	0.266	OF	$2,700	OF	$3,600
3	Manny Machado	RIGHT	0.368	0.260	34.6%	0.264	3B	$3,800	3B/SS	$4,900
4	Chris Davis	LEFT	0.355	0.278	42.5%	0.262	1B	$3,600	1B	$4,600
5	Mark Trumbo	RIGHT	0.375	0.286	39.7%	0.223	OF	$3,600	OF	$4,900
6	Pedro Alvarez	LEFT	0.356	0.268	39.3%	0.316	3B	$3,500	1B	$4,800
7	Jonathan Schoop	RIGHT	0.337	0.200	28.8%	0.278	2B	$3,200	2B	$4,400
8	Matt Wieters	SWITCH	0.308	0.177	31.5%	0.258	C	$2,800	C	$4,500
9	J.J. Hardy	RIGHT	0.310	0.128	32.2%	0.430	SS	$2,100	SS	$4,100
	Team Averages	—	0.347	0.212	34.7%	0.291	—	—	—	—

Elite Plays – Manny Machado, Chris Davis, Mark Trumbo, Pedro Alvarez

Secondary Plays – Adam Jones, Hyun-Soo Kim, Jonathan Schoop

Stackability – GREEN

Washington at Pittsburgh – 7:05 PM ET

Stats	wOBA	HR All.	HC%	K%	Stats	wOBA	HR All.	HC%	K%
Washington					Pittsburgh
			Gio Gonzalez					Jameson Taillon
			LEFT					RIGHT
			Vegas Moneyline					Vegas Over/Under
			PIT -115					8.5
SP vs. Left (2016)	0.279	1	28.8%	20.1%	SP vs. Left (2016)	0.301	4	32.5%	17.5%
SP vs. Right (2016)	0.323	18	34.2%	23.1%	SP vs. Right (2016)	0.306	7	34.9%	22.2%

Pitcher Grind Down

Statistics	Starts	PitchPS	SIERA	ERA	K%	BB%	SS%	GB%	FB%	HC%
Gio Gonzalez
					FanDuel			DraftKings
					Salary:		$8,400	Salary:		$7,000
					FPPG:		29.1	FPPG:		14.8
					Pitcher Rating:		76.1	Pitcher Rank:		6
L30 Days	6	93.8	3.14	5.34	24.8%	4.5%	9.2%	50.0%	20.7%	25.0%
2016	30	97.5	3.93	4.48	22.5%	7.4%	9.4%	46.5%	30.5%	33.0%
2015	31	95.1	3.77	3.79	22.3%	9.1%	9.8%	53.8%	26.6%	28.7%

Home (2015-16):—ERA: 3.85 — K%: 23.8% — wOBA Allowed: 0.303
Away (2015-16):—ERA: 4.39 — K%: 21.1% — wOBA Allowed: 0.321

Gonzalez may have a high ERA over his last six starts, but his peripheral stats suggest that some improvement could be on the horizon. During that stretch, he posted a 3.14 SIERA with a strikeout rate of 24.8%. The big problem with rostering Gonzalez is that pit that you get in your stomach when lineups lock. I like to compare it to a late night run to Taco Bell. It just doesn’t sit right. As a small underdog on the road, I will be looking elsewhere at pitcher.

Statistics	Starts	PitchPS	SIERA	ERA	K%	BB%	SS%	GB%	FB%	HC%
Jameson Taillon
					FanDuel			DraftKings
					Salary:		$7,200	Salary:		$6,800
					FPPG:		27.8	FPPG:		14.9
					Pitcher Rating:		73.1	Pitcher Rank:		8
L30 Days	5	81.2	3.81	4.33	19.8%	4.5%	8.9%	51.3%	30.0%	34.2%
2016	16	85.8	3.58	3.39	19.8%	3.7%	8.3%	53.1%	25.6%	33.6%

Home (2015-16):—ERA: 2.78 — K%: 19.6% — wOBA Allowed: 0.276
Away (2015-16):—ERA: 4.26 — K%: 20.0% — wOBA Allowed: 0.339

Taillon has been an excellent source of value in his rookie season. In 16 starts, he has a 3.58 SIERA with a strikeout rate of 19.8% and a walk rate of 3.8%. The only knock on him has been his inability to pitch deep into games (85.8 pitches per start). He does get to pitch at home tonight, but he draws a fairly difficult matchup against the Nationals. On the season, Washington is ranked 16th or better in team wOBA, team ISO, and team K% against right-handed pitching.

Batter Grind Down

Washington

The Nationals come into tonight’s game with a mediocre run projection of 3.89. This isn’t exactly an ideal matchup, as they are facing a talented pitcher in Jameson Taillon and they have to face him on the road in a pitcher-friendly ballpark. Trea Turner, Daniel Murphy, and Bryce Harper are all viable one-off GPP plays, but the Nationals can be avoided in cash games.

Nationals Offense (2016)
Team wOBA vs. RHP — 0.318 (13 of 30)
Team wOBA L30 Days — 0.304 (24 of 30)
Team ISO vs. RHP — 0.163 (16 of 30)
Team K% vs. RHP — 19.8% (7 of 30)
Pitches Per PA vs. RHP — 3.89 (12 of 30)
Runs Per Game — 4.69 (9 of 30)
Projected Run Total — 4.16 (15 of 30)

Projected Lineup

#	Player	Bats	wOBA vs. RHP	ISO vs. RHP	HC% vs. RHP	wOBA L14	FD Position	FD Salary	DK Position	DK Salary
1	Trea Turner	RIGHT	0.413	0.276	33.7%	0.446	OF	$4,300	2B/OF	$5,400
2	Jayson Werth	RIGHT	0.297	0.140	32.9%	0.211	OF	$3,600	OF	$3,300
3	Daniel Murphy	LEFT	0.420	0.261	41.2%	0.422	2B	$3,800	2B	$5,200
4	Bryce Harper	LEFT	0.348	0.188	34.6%	0.216	OF	$3,700	OF	$4,700
5	Anthony Rendon	RIGHT	0.340	0.183	37.7%	0.258	3B	$3,300	3B	$3,500
6	Wilson Ramos	RIGHT	0.350	0.162	34.8%	0.311	C	$3,300	C	$3,700
7	Ryan Zimmerman	RIGHT	0.273	0.143	33.9%	0.230	1B	$3,200	1B	$3,000
8	Danny Espinosa	SWITCH	0.294	0.134	30.1%	0.187	SS	$2,900	SS	$2,600
9	Gio Gonzalez	LEFT	0.163	0.027	16.7%	0.000	P	$8,400	P	$7,000
	Team Averages	—	0.322	0.168	32.8%	0.253	—	—	—	—

Elite Plays – NONE

Secondary Plays – Trea Turner, Daniel Murphy, Bryce Harper

Stackability – ORANGE

Pittsburgh

The Pirates have flown under the radar against lefties this season. It may surprise some, but they are ranked fourth in team wOBA against southpaws. Their matchup against Gio Gonzalez isn’t elite by any means, but he has allowed a .323 wOBA and 18 home runs to right-handed hitters this season.

Pirates Offense (2016)
Team wOBA vs. LHP — 0.340 (4 of 30)
Team wOBA L30 Days — 0.337 (5 of 30)
Team ISO vs. LHP — 0.157 (19 of 30)
Team K% vs. LHP — 23.1% (24 of 30)
Pitches Per PA vs. LHP — 3.98 (2 of 30)
Runs Per Game — 4.58 (12 of 30)
Projected Run Total — 4.34 (11 of 30)

Projected Lineup

#	Player	Bats	wOBA vs. LHP	ISO vs. LHP	HC% vs. LHP	wOBA L14	FD Position	FD Salary	DK Position	DK Salary
1	Jordy Mercer	RIGHT	0.363	0.182	25.6%	0.254	SS	$2,200	SS	$3,700
2	Starling Marte	RIGHT	0.320	0.101	33.9%	0.000	OF	$3,000	OF	$4,800
3	Andrew McCutchen	RIGHT	0.311	0.175	35.4%	0.419	OF	$3,400	OF	$4,600
4	Jung-Ho Kang	RIGHT	0.349	0.206	39.5%	0.404	3B	$3,600	3B	$4,700
5	David Freese	RIGHT	0.402	0.216	48.3%	0.278	3B	$2,700	1B/3B	$3,600
6	Gregory Polanco	LEFT	0.338	0.232	31.8%	0.277	OF	$3,400	OF	$4,000
7	Sean Rodriguez	RIGHT	0.421	0.250	50.0%	0.517	OF	$3,500	2B/SS	$4,300
8	Francisco Cervelli	RIGHT	0.421	0.020	41.9%	0.329	C	$2,900	C	$3,200
9	Jameson Taillon	RIGHT	0.000	0.000	0.0%	0.293	P	$7,200	P	$6,800
	Team Averages	—	0.325	0.154	34.0%	0.308	—	—	—	—

Elite Plays – Jordy Mercer (FD)

Secondary Plays – Jordy Mercer (DK), Starling Marte, Andrew McCutchen, Jung-Ho Kang, David Freese

Stackability – YELLOW

NY Yankees at Toronto – 7:07 PM ET

Stats	wOBA	HR All.	HC%	K%	Stats	wOBA	HR All.	HC%	K%
NY Yankees					Toronto
			Bryan Mitchell					Francisco Liriano
			RIGHT					LEFT
			Vegas Moneyline					Vegas Over/Under
			TOR -170					9.0
SP vs. Left (2016)	0.380	0	29.4%	25.0%	SP vs. Left (2016)	0.335	5	35.1%	22.5%
SP vs. Right (2016)	0.399	1	39.3%	3.2%	SP vs. Right (2016)	0.349	21	34.6%	22.3%

Pitcher Grind Down

Statistics	Starts	PitchPS	SIERA	ERA	K%	BB%	SS%	GB%	FB%	HC%
Bryan Mitchell
					FanDuel			DraftKings
					Salary:		$5,300	Salary:		$4,300
					FPPG:		15.0	FPPG:		5.5
					Pitcher Rating:		42.3	Pitcher Rank:		23
L30 Days	3	67.0	4.92	3.75	12.7%	5.5%	8.0%	46.7%	35.6%	35.6%
2016	3	67.0	4.92	6.00	12.7%	5.5%	8.0%	46.7%	35.6%	35.6%
2015	2	78.0	3.97	6.37	20.3%	11.2%	8.7%	50.0%	21.9%	31.3%

Home (2015-16):—ERA: 5.87 — K%: 15.9% — wOBA Allowed: 0.357
Away (2015-16):—ERA: 6.75 — K%: 20.9% — wOBA Allowed: 0.380

Mitchell is making his fourth start of the season. He hasn’t had a lot of success at the major league level, posting a SIERA over 6.00 with a strikeout rate well under 20%. He draws a difficult matchup tonight against the Blue Jays and he has to face them on the road in the hitter-friendly Rogers Centre. This is a great spot to stack the Jays, as they have one of the highest implied team totals in the slate.

Statistics	Starts	PitchPS	SIERA	ERA	K%	BB%	SS%	GB%	FB%	HC%
Francisco Liriano
					FanDuel			DraftKings
					Salary:		$7,600	Salary:		$7,300
					FPPG:		23.8	FPPG:		11.5
					Pitcher Rating:		73.2	Pitcher Rank:		7
L30 Days	4	100.3	3.49	3.20	26.0%	8.7%	13.0%	56.7%	25.4%	29.9%
2016	27	95.9	4.50	5.08	22.3%	12.0%	11.2%	52.0%	29.6%	34.7%
2015	31	96.2	3.38	3.38	26.5%	9.1%	14.3%	51.2%	26.3%	24.3%

Home (2015-16):—ERA: 4.52 — K%: 25.4% — wOBA Allowed: 0.314
Away (2015-16):—ERA: 3.74 — K%: 23.7% — wOBA Allowed: 0.308

Liriano has quietly been in good form over the last month of play, posting a 3.49 SIERA with a strikeout rate of 26%. This recent success could be sustainable, as his command has been better during that stretch, as has his swinging strike rate. He has burned enough bridges in the past that I expect him to be low owned tonight. He is one of my favorite GPP plays on the board, as the Yankees are a bottom ten offense against left-handed pitching this season.

Batter Grind Down

NY Yankees

The Yankees have a below-average run projection tonight, even though they are playing in one of the best hitter’s parks in the American League. It sounds crazy, but that’s just another reason why we should consider Francisco Liriano. However, if you don’t trust him, he has allowed a .349 wOBA and 21 home runs to right-handed hitters this season.

Yankees Offense (2016)
Team wOBA vs. LHP — 0.306 (24 of 30)
Team wOBA L30 Days — 0.330 (8 of 30)
Team ISO vs. LHP — 0.140 (25 of 30)
Team K% vs. LHP — 18.4% (2 of 30)
Pitches Per PA vs. LHP — 3.80 (24 of 30)
Runs Per Game — 4.26 (20 of 30)
Projected Run Total — 4.09 (19 of 30)

Projected Lineup

#	Player	Bats	wOBA vs. LHP	ISO vs. LHP	HC% vs. LHP	wOBA L14	FD Position	FD Salary	DK Position	DK Salary
1	Brett Gardner	LEFT	0.291	0.089	23.6%	0.329	OF	$3,200	OF	$3,600
2	Jacoby Ellsbury	LEFT	0.256	0.080	25.2%	0.270	OF	$3,100	OF	$3,100
3	Gary Sanchez	RIGHT	0.340	0.390	46.2%	0.483	C	$4,400	C	$5,100
4	Billy Butler	RIGHT	0.329	0.142	28.7%	0.489	1B	$2,600	1B	$3,200
5	Mark Teixeira	SWITCH	0.307	0.117	32.1%	0.374	1B	$2,700	1B	$3,200
6	Didi Gregorius	LEFT	0.347	0.142	22.8%	0.274	SS	$2,900	SS	$3,100
7	Chase Headley	SWITCH	0.309	0.083	29.0%	0.306	3B	$2,800	3B	$2,900
8	Aaron Hicks	SWITCH	0.221	0.112	36.7%	0.314	OF	$2,400	OF	$2,700
9			1.241	1.000	100.0%	0.594	P	$6,000	0	$0
	Team Averages	—	0.405	0.239	38.3%	0.381	—	—	—	—

Elite Plays – NONE

Secondary Plays – Gary Sanchez, Billy Butler, Mark Teixeira

Stackability – ORANGE / YELLOW

Toronto

The Blue Jays are ranked inside the top ten in both team wOBA and team ISO against right-handed pitching this season. They draw one of the best matchups on the board tonight, as they host Bryan Mitchell and the Yankees. The sample size is small, but Mitchell has allowed a .360+ wOBA to both left and right-handed hitters in his career.

Blue Jays Offense (2016)
Team wOBA vs. RHP — 0.326 (9 of 30)
Team wOBA L30 Days — 0.326 (9 of 30)
Team ISO vs. RHP — 0.184 (6 of 30)
Team K% vs. RHP — 22.7% (25 of 30)
Pitches Per PA vs. RHP — 4.07 (1 of 30)
Runs Per Game — 4.75 (7 of 30)
Projected Run Total — 4.91 (2 of 30)

Projected Lineup

#	Player	Bats	wOBA vs. RHP	ISO vs. RHP	HC% vs. RHP	wOBA L14	FD Position	FD Salary	DK Position	DK Salary
1	Devon Travis	RIGHT	0.364	0.173	30.8%	0.366	2B	$3,700	2B	$4,200
2	Josh Donaldson	RIGHT	0.398	0.269	41.0%	0.318	3B	$4,300	3B	$5,200
3	Edwin Encarnacion	RIGHT	0.378	0.278	38.7%	0.372	1B	$4,100	1B	$4,800
4	Jose Bautista	RIGHT	0.353	0.206	40.5%	0.367	OF	$3,900	OF	$4,700
5	Russell Martin	RIGHT	0.330	0.188	31.7%	0.284	C	$3,000	C	$4,000
6	Troy Tulowitzki	RIGHT	0.323	0.202	34.6%	0.282	SS	$3,200	SS	$4,000
7	Michael Saunders	LEFT	0.339	0.213	38.8%	0.232	OF	$2,600	OF	$3,700
8	Justin Smoak	SWITCH	0.324	0.196	44.1%	0.295	1B	$2,500	1B	$3,900
9	Kevin Pillar	RIGHT	0.291	0.110	26.4%	0.294	OF	$2,800	OF	$3,600
	Team Averages	—	0.344	0.204	36.3%	0.312	—	—	—	—

Elite Plays – Devon Travis, Josh Donaldson, Edwin Encarnacion, Jose Bautista

Secondary Plays – Russell Martin, Troy Tulowitzki

Stackability – GREEN

Kansas City at Detroit – 7:08 PM ET

Stats	wOBA	HR All.	HC%	K%	Stats	wOBA	HR All.	HC%	K%
Kansas City					Detroit
			Danny Duffy					Michael Fulmer
			LEFT					RIGHT
			Vegas Moneyline					Vegas Over/Under
			DET -130					8.0
SP vs. Left (2016)	0.202	1	22.7%	34.9%	SP vs. Left (2016)	0.271	6	30.4%	17.4%
SP vs. Right (2016)	0.310	22	37.9%	25.0%	SP vs. Right (2016)	0.294	10	30.2%	22.8%

Pitcher Grind Down

Statistics	Starts	PitchPS	SIERA	ERA	K%	BB%	SS%	GB%	FB%	HC%
Danny Duffy
					FanDuel			DraftKings
					Salary:		$9,600	Salary:		$11,600
					FPPG:		25.4	FPPG:		14.0
					Pitcher Rating:		64.4	Pitcher Rank:		14
L30 Days	5	97.2	3.83	4.99	22.6%	5.3%	10.9%	41.7%	39.6%	35.4%
2016	24	104.7	3.39	3.18	26.6%	5.3%	13.2%	36.1%	43.9%	35.7%
2015	24	98.3	4.63	4.08	17.4%	9.0%	8.4%	38.8%	36.5%	29.5%

Home (2015-16):—ERA: 3.67 — K%: 19.8% — wOBA Allowed: 0.308
Away (2015-16):—ERA: 3.49 — K%: 25.1% — wOBA Allowed: 0.310

Duffy has a high ERA in his last five starts, but his peripheral stats during that stretch have been good. He is typically a pitcher that we like to target for upside, but unfortunately, he may be too risky to use in DFS tonight. His biggest issue this season has been right-handed hitters and the Tigers will likely have nine right-handed batters in their lineup. On the season, Detroit is ranked above the major league average in team wOBA, team ISO, and team K% against left-handed pitching.

Statistics	Starts	PitchPS	SIERA	ERA	K%	BB%	SS%	GB%	FB%	HC%
Michael Fulmer
					FanDuel			DraftKings
					Salary:		$8,400	Salary:		$8,000
					FPPG:		32.3	FPPG:		17.4
					Pitcher Rating:		63.7	Pitcher Rank:		15
L30 Days	5	95.4	4.99	6.28	13.5%	5.6%	7.3%	41.7%	40.6%	31.3%
2016	24	95.6	4.09	3.03	20.0%	6.5%	10.2%	48.6%	31.8%	30.3%

Home (2015-16):—ERA: 2.90 — K%: 19.2% — wOBA Allowed: 0.274
Away (2015-16):—ERA: 3.09 — K%: 20.4% — wOBA Allowed: 0.286

Fulmer has had a solid rookie season as a whole, but he comes into tonight’s game in bad form. In his last five starts, he has a 4.99 SIERA with a strikeout rate of only 13.5%. I’m often willing to overlook bad form when pitchers are still striking hitters out at a high rate, but his dip in strikeouts is concerning. I love the matchup against the Royals, but see Fulmer as more of a GPP play given his recent form.

Batter Grind Down

Kansas City

The Royals are ranked 28th in team wOBA and 30th in team ISO against right-handed pitching this season. They have been off of the collective fantasy radar for quite some time and that will continue tonight against Michael Fulmer. Even with his recent struggles, Fulmer has still held both left and right-handed hitters under a .295 wOBA this season.

Royals Offense (2016)
Team wOBA vs. RHP — 0.300 (28 of 30)
Team wOBA L30 Days — 0.306 (22 of 30)
Team ISO vs. RHP — 0.129 (30 of 30)
Team K% vs. RHP — 20.0% (9 of 30)
Pitches Per PA vs. RHP — 3.78 (28 of 30)
Runs Per Game — 4.14 (25 of 30)
Projected Run Total — 3.82 (24 of 30)

Projected Lineup

#	Player	Bats	wOBA vs. RHP	ISO vs. RHP	HC% vs. RHP	wOBA L14	FD Position	FD Salary	DK Position	DK Salary
1	Jarrod Dyson	LEFT	0.289	0.090	16.9%	0.297	OF	$2,900	OF	$3,700
2	Whit Merrifield	RIGHT	0.282	0.099	28.7%	0.325	2B	$2,900	2B/OF	$3,200
3	Eric Hosmer	LEFT	0.348	0.168	36.7%	0.269	1B	$3,300	1B	$3,300
4	Kendrys Morales	SWITCH	0.326	0.204	44.0%	0.375	1B	$3,500	1B/OF	$3,400
5	Salvador Perez	RIGHT	0.308	0.182	35.2%	0.207	C	$2,800	C	$3,100
6	Alex Gordon	LEFT	0.303	0.165	35.8%	0.255	OF	$3,000	OF	$3,300
7	Alcides Escobar	RIGHT	0.291	0.086	20.3%	0.329	SS	$2,400	SS	$3,300
8	Cheslor Cuthbert	RIGHT	0.298	0.128	29.8%	0.220	3B	$3,000	3B	$2,700
9	Paulo Orlando	RIGHT	0.288	0.063	29.9%	0.264	OF	$3,100	OF	$3,300
	Team Averages	—	0.304	0.132	30.8%	0.282	—	—	—	—

Elite Plays – NONE

Secondary Plays – NONE

Stackability – RED

Detroit

Thanks to a four-game winning streak of their own and a four-game losing streak of the Orioles, the Tigers now hold a half-game lead for the second wildcard spot in the American League. They have routinely let us down in favorable matchups this season, but maybe they can come through in a more difficult one. On the surface, their matchup against Danny Duffy doesn’t sound like an exploitable one, but he has allowed 22 home runs to right-handed hitters this season.

Tigers Offense (2016)
Team wOBA vs. LHP — 0.322 (13 of 30)
Team wOBA L30 Days — 0.334 (7 of 30)
Team ISO vs. LHP — 0.163 (14 of 30)
Team K% vs. LHP — 21.2% (13 of 30)
Pitches Per PA vs. LHP — 3.85 (18 of 30)
Runs Per Game — 4.57 (13 of 30)
Projected Run Total — 4.18 (14 of 30)

Projected Lineup

#	Player	Bats	wOBA vs. LHP	ISO vs. LHP	HC% vs. LHP	wOBA L14	FD Position	FD Salary	DK Position	DK Salary
1	Ian Kinsler	RIGHT	0.371	0.217	33.9%	0.287	2B	$3,700	2B	$3,800
2	Cameron Maybin	RIGHT	0.339	0.087	26.4%	0.367	OF	$3,400	OF	$4,100
3	Miguel Cabrera	RIGHT	0.392	0.224	41.8%	0.368	1B	$3,800	1B	$3,700
4	Victor Martinez	SWITCH	0.333	0.144	34.2%	0.288	C	$3,400	1B	$2,900
5	J.D. Martinez	RIGHT	0.377	0.219	45.6%	0.352	OF	$3,300	OF	$3,700
6	Justin Upton	RIGHT	0.307	0.185	37.5%	0.314	OF	$3,600	OF	$3,600
7	James McCann	RIGHT	0.365	0.274	48.1%	0.250	C	$2,900	C	$2,800
8	Jose Iglesias	RIGHT	0.301	0.138	29.5%	0.275	SS	$2,500	SS	$2,400
9	Andrew Romine	LEFT	0.252	0.026	18.2%	0.331	SS	$2,200	OF/SS	$2,400
	Team Averages	—	0.337	0.168	35.0%	0.315	—	—	—	—

MLB Grind Down: Friday, September 23rd

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Stackability Rating System:

St. Louis at Chicago Cubs – 2:20 PM ET

Pitcher Grind Down

Batter Grind Down

St. Louis

Projected Lineup

Elite Plays – NONE

Secondary Plays – NONE

Stackability – RED

Chicago Cubs

Projected Lineup

Elite Plays – NONE

Secondary Plays – Kris Bryant, Anthony Rizzo

Stackability – ORANGE

Arizona at Baltimore – 7:05 PM ET

Pitcher Grind Down

Batter Grind Down

Arizona

Projected Lineup

Elite Plays – Jean Segura, Paul Goldschmidt, Jake Lamb

Secondary Plays – Chris Owings, Welington Castillo

Stackability – YELLOW / GREEN

Baltimore

Projected Lineup

Elite Plays – Manny Machado, Chris Davis, Mark Trumbo, Pedro Alvarez

Secondary Plays – Adam Jones, Hyun-Soo Kim, Jonathan Schoop

Stackability – GREEN

Washington at Pittsburgh – 7:05 PM ET

Pitcher Grind Down

Batter Grind Down

Washington

Projected Lineup

Elite Plays – NONE

Secondary Plays – Trea Turner, Daniel Murphy, Bryce Harper

Stackability – ORANGE

Pittsburgh

Projected Lineup

Elite Plays – Jordy Mercer (FD)

Secondary Plays – Jordy Mercer (DK), Starling Marte, Andrew McCutchen, Jung-Ho Kang, David Freese

Stackability – YELLOW

NY Yankees at Toronto – 7:07 PM ET

Pitcher Grind Down

Batter Grind Down

NY Yankees

Projected Lineup

Elite Plays – NONE

Secondary Plays – Gary Sanchez, Billy Butler, Mark Teixeira

Stackability – ORANGE / YELLOW

Toronto

Projected Lineup

Elite Plays – Devon Travis, Josh Donaldson, Edwin Encarnacion, Jose Bautista

Secondary Plays – Russell Martin, Troy Tulowitzki

Stackability – GREEN

Kansas City at Detroit – 7:08 PM ET

Pitcher Grind Down

Batter Grind Down

Kansas City

Projected Lineup

Elite Plays – NONE

Secondary Plays – NONE

Stackability – RED

Detroit

Projected Lineup

Elite Plays – Miguel Cabrera

Secondary Plays – Ian Kinsler, Cameron Maybin, Victor Martinez, J.D. Martinez, James McCann

Stackability – YELLOW

Want to discuss strategy for today’s games? Head over to the RotoGrinders Forums

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