MLB Grind Down: Monday, April 16th

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The RotoGrinders MLB Grind Down will give you an in-depth analysis into the upcoming MLB schedule. This article will break down the numbers for every single game and give you analysis on which trends you can exploit. While matchups are a major factor in daily fantasy baseball, there are plenty of other factors to consider such as injuries, weather, and salaries.

The analysis should point you in the right direction, but it is still up to you to decipher the information and make your own selections. No sport has more variance than baseball. The best choice is not always the right choice but following the trends will win you money over time.

Note: As always, if you want to try a new DFS site, be sure to click through a RotoGrinders link and use our DraftKings promo code, FanDuel promo code, and FantasyDraft promo code to receive the best perks in the industry.


Stackability Rating System:

GREEN – A viable full stack in cash games and GPPs.
YELLOW – A viable mini-stack in cash games and full stack in GPPs.
ORANGE – A viable stack in large field GPPs.
RED – Not a recommended stack for cash games or GPPs.


Implied Run Totals


Ballpark Ratings


Miami at NY Yankees – 6:35 PM ET

Miami NY Yankees
Caleb Smith Luis Severino
LEFT RIGHT
Vegas Moneyline Vegas Over/Under
NYY -340 8.5
Stats wOBA xwOBA HC% BB% K% GB% Stats wOBA xwOBA HC% BB% K% GB%
SP vs. Left (2016-17) 0.351 0.361 25.0% 11.6% 23.3% 35.7% SP vs. Left (2016-17) 0.289 0.306 33.2% 7.7% 29.3% 46.7%
SP vs. Right (2016-17) 0.347 0.390 40.3% 14.4% 26.0% 24.2% SP vs. Right (2016-17) 0.242 0.253 24.6% 6.0% 29.1% 55.1%

Pitcher Grind Down

Caleb Smith
FanDuel DraftKings FantasyDraft
Salary: $5,900 Salary: Salary:
Salary Rank: 16 of 21 Salary Rank: Salary Rank:
Stats Starts SIERA ERA K% BB% GB% HC% SC%
2017 2 4.86 7.71 20.9% 11.6% 27.6% 32.8% 19.0%
2018 3 4.11 4.73 31.2% 16.4% 28.1% 40.6% 18.8%

Happy Monday everyone. It is a great time to be a sports fan. There are technically 12 games on the schedule tonight, but this one is not included in the main slate since it starts at 6:35 ET. I’m not sure why they would opt to start the game early, but it does shorten the main slate by one game. Smith gets a crack at revenge tonight, as he faces the team that traded him for Giancarlo Stanton. I don’t use narratives as often in baseball as I do in basketball, but I always find the whole revenge factor interesting. While I’m sure Smith would like some revenge, I doubt he gets it. He’s been in awful form to start the season and now has to face one of the best offenses in baseball. Vegas agrees with me here, as the Yankees are -340 today, which is one of the most lopsided lines I have seen in quite some time.

Quick Breakdown: Avoid Smith in all formats.

Luis Severino
FanDuel DraftKings FantasyDraft
Salary: $10,100 Salary: Salary:
Salary Rank: 1 of 21 Salary Rank: Salary Rank:
Stats Starts SIERA ERA K% BB% GB% HC% SC%
2017 31 3.25 2.98 29.4% 6.5% 50.6% 28.5% 19.4%
2018 3 3.13 3.50 27.4% 9.6% 58.7% 28.3% 21.7%

It’s a shame that this game isn’t featured in the main slate because I would love to get exposure to Severino. Even though he struggled against the Red Sox his last time out, he still boasts a 3.13 SIERA with a strikeout rate of 27% and a ground ball rate of 59%. He does everything well that we look for in a pitcher and he draws an elite matchup as a bonus. The projected lineup for Miami has an average xwOBA of .310 and a strikeout rate of 19% against right-handed pitching. Severino should have no issue pitching deep into this game and run support should come in bunches.

Quick Breakdown: Severino is my favorite pitcher on the board, but unfortunately, he’s only available in the all-day slate.

Batter Grind Down

Miami

The Marlins have been a full fade for most of the season and that trend will continue tonight against the Yankees. While they see a favorable ballpark shift playing in New York, that’s not enough to overcome their matchup against Luis Severino. Since the beginning of last season, he has elite ground ball and strikeout rates and has held both left and right-handed hitters under a .310 xwOBA.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

# Player Bats wOBA xwOBA ISO HC% BB% K% GB% FD Pos. FD Sal. DK Pos. DK Sal. FDRFT Pos. FDRFT Sal.
1 Derek Dietrich LEFT 0.317 0.322 0.178 33.9% 7.5% 20.8% 36.0% OF $2,800 N/A N/A
2 Miguel Rojas RIGHT 0.335 0.317 0.086 22.6% 8.1% 10.7% 52.6% SS $2,900 N/A N/A
3 Starlin Castro RIGHT 0.322 0.306 0.143 28.8% 3.9% 19.6% 52.1% 2B $3,000 N/A N/A
4 Justin Bour LEFT 0.378 0.402 0.252 40.4% 10.8% 20.0% 41.6% 1B $3,100 N/A N/A
5 Brian Anderson RIGHT 0.336 0.311 0.109 26.8% 14.4% 19.8% 57.7% 3B $2,900 N/A N/A
6 JB Shuck LEFT 0.623 0.441 0.286 28.6% 12.5% 0.0% 57.1% OF $2,000 N/A N/A
7 Lewis Brinson RIGHT 0.151 0.241 0.028 24.4% 7.5% 32.5% 62.2% OF $2,000 N/A N/A
8 Bryan Holaday RIGHT 0.226 0.270 0.068 14.6% 6.4% 6.4% 39.0% C $2,100 N/A N/A
9 Braxton Lee LEFT 0.198 0.192 0.000 0.0% 5.9% 41.2% 50.0% OF $2,000 N/A N/A

Elite Plays – None

Secondary Plays – None

Stackability – RED

NY Yankees

Why oh why can’t this game be on the main slate? A Yankees’ stack looks so attractive. They are playing at home, they have a massive implied run total, and they are facing a fly-ball pitcher that gives up a lot of hard contact. They are also facing a pitcher that they are already familiar with since Caleb Smith was on the Yankees last season. The sample size is still small, but Smith has allowed a .390 xwOBA and a 40% hard contact to right-handed hitters. Fire up Aaron Judge, Giancarlo Stanton, and Gary Sanchez as elite plays in all formats. You can also stack the Yankees a number of ways and I wouldn’t hesitate to include the likes of Aaron Hicks, Brett Gardner, Didi Gregorius, and Tyler Austin.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. LH Pitching)

# Player Bats wOBA xwOBA ISO HC% BB% K% GB% FD Pos. FD Sal. DK Pos. DK Sal. FDRFT Pos. FDRFT Sal.
1 Aaron Hicks SWITCH 0.384 0.357 0.198 30.0% 10.9% 18.0% 47.2% OF $3,400 N/A N/A
2 Aaron Judge RIGHT 0.417 0.451 0.279 47.9% 26.2% 30.4% 31.0% OF $5,100 N/A N/A
3 Giancarlo Stanton RIGHT 0.496 0.472 0.464 45.1% 16.6% 16.0% 44.2% OF $4,800 N/A N/A
4 Gary Sanchez RIGHT 0.380 0.395 0.300 38.2% 10.4% 23.1% 39.3% C $3,900 N/A N/A
5 Didi Gregorius LEFT 0.286 0.269 0.089 15.4% 4.1% 14.1% 35.6% SS $4,300 N/A N/A
6 Brett Gardner LEFT 0.273 0.311 0.076 20.0% 9.4% 16.6% 50.0% OF $3,600 N/A N/A
7 Tyler Austin RIGHT 0.416 0.451 0.269 35.0% 12.5% 25.0% 35.0% 1B $3,000 N/A N/A
8 Miguel Andujar RIGHT 0.239 0.217 0.000 9.1% 7.1% 14.3% 45.5% 3B $2,300 N/A N/A
9 Ronald Torreyes RIGHT 0.317 0.232 0.038 15.7% 4.8% 11.9% 65.7% 2B $2,400 N/A N/A

Elite Plays – Austin Hicks, Aaron Judge, Giancarlo Stanton, Gary Sanchez

Secondary Plays – Brett Gardner, Didi Gregorius, Tyler Austin

Stackability – GREEN


Colorado at Pittsburgh – 7:05 PM ET

Colorado Pittsburgh
German Marquez Steven Brault
RIGHT LEFT
Vegas Moneyline Vegas Over/Under
PIT -130 8.0
Stats wOBA xwOBA HC% BB% K% GB% Stats wOBA xwOBA HC% BB% K% GB%
SP vs. Left (2016-17) 0.320 0.313 31.2% 8.9% 17.9% 48.9% SP vs. Left (2016-17) 0.258 0.277 16.2% 9.6% 17.3% 47.2%
SP vs. Right (2016-17) 0.362 0.337 36.7% 6.6% 23.4% 41.7% SP vs. Right (2016-17) 0.358 0.369 42.4% 9.6% 14.4% 41.8%

Pitcher Grind Down

German Marquez
FanDuel DraftKings FantasyDraft
Salary: $5,900 Salary: $6,000 Salary: $11,700
Salary Rank: 16 of 21 Salary Rank: 15 of 21 Salary Rank: 16 of 21
Stats Starts SIERA ERA K% BB% GB% HC% SC%
2017 29 4.27 4.39 21.0% 7.0% 45.2% 34.5% 17.7%
2018 3 5.65 4.97 16.7% 16.7% 48.7% 25.6% 18.0%

Marquez is off to a shaky start this season, posting a 5.65 SIERA with a strikeout rate (17%) that matches his walk rate. When at his best, he is inducing ground balls and soft contact. While he does see a significantly big ballpark boost playing in Pittsburgh, he’s still listed as an underdog in a game that features a total of 8.0 runs. While the Pirates may not have a ton of power in their lineup, they draw a ton of walks and take a lot of pitches. They also have one of the lowest strikeout rates in baseball.

Quick Breakdown: Marquez is an easy fade against the low-strikeout offense of the Pirates.

Steven Brault
FanDuel DraftKings FantasyDraft
Salary: $5,600 Salary: $5,200 Salary: $10,100
Salary Rank: 19 of 21 Salary Rank: 17 of 21 Salary Rank: 17 of 21
Stats Starts SIERA ERA K% BB% GB% HC% SC%
2017 4 5.23 4.67 14.2% 8.6% 40.8% 33.3% 21.1%
2018 2 4.86 3.46 17.5% 12.3% 47.4% 46.2% 25.6%

Brault has yet to pitch more than five innings in any of his three appearances this season. Before we even dive into the numbers, that’s obviously not ideal. We want pitchers that can rack up strikeouts and/or pitch deep into games. While Brault is good at inducing soft soft, he has a low strikeout rate and a high walk rate. On the plus side, the Rockies strikeout as often as any team in baseball when facing a left-handed pitcher. Colorado’s projected lineup has an average strikeout rate of 27% against southpaws and they are going to be without Nolan Arenado. Brault has the advantage of pitching at home and in a good ballpark, which brings him into consideration as an SP2 in tournaments.

Quick Breakdown: This play is more about the matchup than it is about Brault, but he’s viable in tournaments at this cheap price point.

Batter Grind Down

Colorado

The Rockies aren’t the best offense when they are facing a left-handed pitcher or when they are playing away from Coors Field. Their matchup against Steven Brault doesn’t look terrible on paper, but I am going to rule out a full stack given the lack of depth in this lineup. Chris Iannetta, DJ LeMahieu, and Trevor Story are the top targets here, as Brault has allowed a .369 xwOBA and a 42% hard contact rate to right-handed hitters since the start of last season.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. LH Pitching)

# Player Bats wOBA xwOBA ISO HC% BB% K% GB% FD Pos. FD Sal. DK Pos. DK Sal. FDRFT Pos. FDRFT Sal.
1 Charlie Blackmon LEFT 0.406 0.362 0.233 34.4% 7.4% 16.8% 50.0% OF $4,300 OF $5,100 CF $9,800
2 Chris Iannetta RIGHT 0.410 0.349 0.247 31.4% 15.5% 23.3% 47.1% C $2,300 C $3,400 C $6,700
3 DJ LeMahieu RIGHT 0.424 0.407 0.222 37.4% 9.8% 10.3% 54.4% 2B $3,800 2B $4,300 2B $8,100
4 Trevor Story RIGHT 0.411 0.342 0.331 48.4% 11.8% 34.8% 28.4% SS $3,100 SS $4,100 SS $8,500
5 Ian Desmond RIGHT 0.307 0.260 0.140 26.4% 5.6% 23.2% 65.5% 1B $2,600 1B/OF $3,700 LF $7,600
6 Carlos Gonzalez LEFT 0.235 0.224 0.098 34.3% 3.8% 30.0% 58.1% OF $2,900 OF $3,600 RF $7,300
7 Pat Valaika RIGHT 0.322 0.288 0.255 30.4% 5.9% 26.5% 31.3% SS $2,000 SS $2,800 SS $5,800
8 Ryan McMahon LEFT 0.189 0.221 0.000 0.0% 27.3% 54.5% 100.0% 3B $2,000 1B/2B $2,800 1B $5,700
9 German Marquez RIGHT 0.211 0.127 0.100 0.0% 0.0% 25.0% 85.7% P $5,900 P $6,000 P $11,700

Elite Plays – Chris Iannetta (DK)

Secondary Plays – DJ LeMahieu, Trevor Story

Stackability – ORANGE

Pittsburgh

The Pirates draw a mediocre matchup against German Marquez. There isn’t anything that really stands out when we look at his splits. In 2017, he had an average strikeout rate, an average ground ball rate, and comparable splits to left and right-handed hitters. Meanwhile, the Pirates are an offense that is loaded with high-contact batters that are patient at the plate. In other words, there isn’t a lot that stands out from a matchup perspective. I’m fine with a Pirates’ hitter as the last piece of a lineup, but I’m not going out of my way to target this offense.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

# Player Bats wOBA xwOBA ISO HC% BB% K% GB% FD Pos. FD Sal. DK Pos. DK Sal. FDRFT Pos. FDRFT Sal.
1 Josh Harrison RIGHT 0.318 0.321 0.139 33.7% 5.0% 16.6% 35.2% 2B $3,400 2B $4,000 2B $7,500
2 Gregory Polanco LEFT 0.320 0.340 0.187 29.1% 8.0% 13.0% 40.1% OF $4,400 OF $4,700 RF $9,000
3 Starling Marte RIGHT 0.349 0.333 0.138 26.2% 7.2% 17.3% 47.4% OF $3,900 OF $4,300 CF $8,100
4 Josh Bell SWITCH 0.343 0.333 0.205 33.1% 11.1% 19.7% 51.8% 1B $3,600 1B $3,900 1B $7,700
5 Corey Dickerson LEFT 0.344 0.335 0.225 35.2% 5.9% 22.7% 38.1% OF $4,100 OF $3,900 LF $7,500
6 Francisco Cervelli RIGHT 0.326 0.342 0.130 33.7% 10.9% 19.2% 47.6% C $2,700 C $3,100 C $6,000
7 Colin Moran LEFT 0.369 0.429 0.167 37.8% 10.6% 10.6% 37.8% 3B $2,900 3B $3,600 3B $7,300
8 Jordy Mercer RIGHT 0.310 0.304 0.147 28.1% 9.5% 15.5% 47.1% SS $2,800 SS $3,100 SS $5,500
9 Steven Brault LEFT 0.230 0.215 0.077 7.7% 0.0% 0.0% 66.7% P $5,600 P $5,200 P $10,100

Elite Plays – None

Secondary Plays – Gregory Polanco, Starling Marte, Josh Bell, Corey Dickerson

Stackability – ORANGE / YELLOW


Kansas City at Toronto – 7:07 PM ET

Kansas City Toronto
Eric Skoglund Jaime Garcia
LEFT LEFT
Vegas Moneyline Vegas Over/Under
TOR -210 9.0
Stats wOBA xwOBA HC% BB% K% GB% Stats wOBA xwOBA HC% BB% K% GB%
SP vs. Left (2016-17) 0.363 0.321 33.3% 8.7% 13.0% 42.9% SP vs. Left (2016-17) 0.300 0.262 28.7% 3.9% 25.8% 57.7%
SP vs. Right (2016-17) 0.459 0.375 36.6% 12.6% 12.6% 35.2% SP vs. Right (2016-17) 0.332 0.346 32.1% 11.0% 17.9% 53.0%

Pitcher Grind Down

Eric Skoglund
FanDuel DraftKings FantasyDraft
Salary: $5,500 Salary: $4,900 Salary: $9,600
Salary Rank: 20 of 21 Salary Rank: 18 of 21 Salary Rank: 18 of 21
Stats Starts SIERA ERA K% BB% GB% HC% SC%
2017 5 5.83 9.50 15.1% 12.9% 36.4% 34.3% 13.4%
2018 1 6.71 9.64 4.0% 8.0% 36.8% 42.1% 15.8%

Skoglund was scheduled to pitch yesterday, but we had a surprise rainout in Kansas City. He’ll now take the mound against the Blue Jays in the hitter-friendly Rogers Centre. A quick glance at his pitching table above tells us all we need to know about Skoglund. Any pitcher with that many red boxes should not be on our radar. He owns a high SIERA, a low strikeout rate, and he’s a fly-ball pitcher that gives up a lot of hard contact.

Quick Breakdown: Skoglund is one of the easiest fades of the slate.

Jaime Garcia
FanDuel DraftKings FantasyDraft
Salary: $6,500 Salary: $7,100 Salary: $13,800
Salary Rank: 11 of 21 Salary Rank: 10 of 21 Salary Rank: 10 of 21
Stats Starts SIERA ERA K% BB% GB% HC% SC%
2017 27 4.54 4.41 19.2% 9.5% 54.8% 30.5% 20.7%
2018 2 3.49 3.18 26.7% 8.9% 40.7% 46.4% 14.3%

Garcia is the ultimate troll when it comes to DFS. He does this every single year. He’ll string together a few good starts, he’ll become the chalk in a great matchup, and they he’ll get rocked and everyone will be left wondering why on earth they used him in cash games. I’m not saying that the Garcia train is going to come to a halt tonight, but I don’t expect him to sustain a 3.49 SIERA and a 27% strikeout rate all season. Now, even though I hate the idea of a chalky Garcia, he does make a lot of sense here. He’s cheap across the industry and he’s facing a Royals’ offense that does not fare well against southpaws. Their projected lineup has an average xwOBA of .302 with a 23% strikeout rate against lefties.

Quick Breakdown: I’m sure I’ll end up with a lot of Garcia tonight, even though I’ve been warned (by myself).

Batter Grind Down

Kansas City

The Royals see a favorable ballpark shift playing in Toronto, but their offense is not equipped to left-handed pitching. They have a total of three batters in their projected lineup with an xwOBA over .305 against southpaws. While Jaime Garcia can struggle with his command at times, he typically has a high ground ball rate and an average strikeout rate. This is far from an ideal matchup and I’d much rather take my chances with Garcia rather than the Royals’ offense.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. LH Pitching)

# Player Bats wOBA xwOBA ISO HC% BB% K% GB% FD Pos. FD Sal. DK Pos. DK Sal. FDRFT Pos. FDRFT Sal.
1 Abraham Almonte SWITCH 0.239 0.251 0.061 19.4% 10.7% 25.0% 68.6% OF $2,000 OF $2,500 RF $4,900
2 Whit Merrifield RIGHT 0.338 0.338 0.180 34.2% 5.4% 15.4% 38.3% 2B $3,100 2B/OF $4,100 IF/OF $8,300
3 Mike Moustakas LEFT 0.316 0.304 0.184 30.3% 3.3% 16.6% 41.7% 3B $3,600 3B $4,400 3B $8,400
4 Cheslor Cuthbert RIGHT 0.275 0.253 0.108 21.7% 5.7% 27.1% 43.5% 1B $2,300 3B $3,000 3B $5,700
5 Jorge Soler RIGHT 0.266 0.348 0.167 48.5% 10.9% 29.1% 39.4% OF $2,200 OF $3,200 RF $6,800
6 Lucas Duda LEFT 0.260 0.279 0.193 34.8% 6.4% 36.8% 40.6% 1B $2,600 1B $3,600 1B $7,300
7 Paulo Orlando RIGHT 0.350 0.374 0.111 33.3% 0.0% 21.4% 33.3% OF $2,300 OF $2,800 RF $5,400
8 Alcides Escobar RIGHT 0.325 0.293 0.155 32.8% 5.2% 15.6% 40.3% SS $2,400 SS $2,900 SS $5,500
9 Drew Butera RIGHT 0.251 0.277 0.100 36.8% 8.9% 23.2% 21.1% C $2,200 C $2,600 C $4,500

Elite Plays – None

Secondary Plays – Whit Merrifield

Stackability – RED

Toronto

The only argument against the Blue Jays tonight is ownership. That’s literally the only argument I can come up with. They are playing at home in a hitter-friendly ballpark and they have arguably the best matchup of the slate. In his last six major league starts, Skoglund has allowed a .321 xwOBA to lefties and a .375 xwOBA to righties. During that same stretch, he has a low strikeout rate and a high hard contact rate. The Blue Jays are cheap across the industry and they have the highest implied run total of any team in the main slate. I know that anything can happen in baseball, but everything is lining up for Toronto’s offense. If you are stacking the Blue Jays in tournaments, make sure to differentiate your lineup somehow. You can include some of the lower batters in the order or target a low-owned pitcher.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. LH Pitching)

# Player Bats wOBA xwOBA ISO HC% BB% K% GB% FD Pos. FD Sal. DK Pos. DK Sal. FDRFT Pos. FDRFT Sal.
1 Steve Pearce RIGHT 0.332 0.341 0.265 36.4% 7.8% 22.4% 39.0% OF $2,700 OF $3,100 1B $5,600
2 Teoscar Hernandez RIGHT 0.293 0.329 0.296 33.3% 0.0% 46.4% 13.3% OF $2,700 OF $2,600 CF $5,000
3 Justin Smoak SWITCH 0.413 0.399 0.211 35.3% 12.2% 14.6% 37.8% 1B $3,800 1B $4,800 1B $8,400
4 Yangervis Solarte SWITCH 0.260 0.311 0.079 27.6% 9.4% 9.4% 46.5% 3B $3,200 2B/3B $3,600 2B $7,700
5 Russell Martin RIGHT 0.271 0.329 0.114 34.8% 14.0% 29.1% 35.6% C $2,200 C $3,200 C $6,300
6 Kevin Pillar RIGHT 0.384 0.334 0.221 30.5% 6.0% 14.5% 40.0% OF $2,700 OF $3,200 CF $6,400
7 Randal Grichuk RIGHT 0.272 0.350 0.182 38.5% 7.6% 26.9% 29.5% OF $2,100 OF $3,500 LF $6,700
8 Aledmys Diaz RIGHT 0.251 0.261 0.048 23.5% 8.7% 17.4% 38.0% SS $2,600 SS $3,100 SS $5,600
9 Devon Travis RIGHT 0.412 0.437 0.286 25.0% 10.3% 17.9% 39.3% 2B $2,200 2B $3,000 2B $5,900

Elite Plays – Steve Pearce, Teoscar Hernandez, Justin Smoak, Russell Martin

Secondary Plays – Yangervis Solarte, Kevin Pillar, Randal Grichuk, Devon Travis (bump to elite if he’s at the top of the lineup)

Stackability – GREEN


Texas at Tampa Bay – 7:10 PM ET

Texas Tampa Bay
Martin Perez Blake Snell
LEFT LEFT
Vegas Moneyline Vegas Over/Under
TB -170 8.0
Stats wOBA xwOBA HC% BB% K% GB% Stats wOBA xwOBA HC% BB% K% GB%
SP vs. Left (2016-17) 0.295 0.298 29.4% 4.9% 21.2% 54.2% SP vs. Left (2016-17) 0.216 0.258 26.3% 11.1% 25.6% 47.4%
SP vs. Right (2016-17) 0.372 0.383 36.0% 8.5% 12.0% 45.3% SP vs. Right (2016-17) 0.319 0.321 33.2% 11.4% 21.8% 42.9%

Pitcher Grind Down

Martin Perez
FanDuel DraftKings FantasyDraft
Salary: $5,700 Salary: $6,600 Salary: $13,200
Salary Rank: 18 of 21 Salary Rank: 12 of 21 Salary Rank: 12 of 21
Stats Starts SIERA ERA K% BB% GB% HC% SC%
2017 32 5.04 4.82 14.2% 7.8% 47.3% 33.3% 15.2%
2018 2 6.01 11.88 6.4% 8.5% 41.0% 59.0% 12.8%

Perez is yet another pitcher that we love to stack against. He used to crush stacks thanks to a high ground ball rate, but that number has been declining in each of the last three seasons. In fact, his ground ball rate this season is below the league average. It’s not sustainable, but look at his hard contact rate (59%). Even though the Rays are an offense that we’ve been picking on all season, we should steer clear of Perez. He doesn’t have enough strikeout upside to make up for the runs that he’s going to allow.

Quick Breakdown: Perez is an easy fade in all formats.

Blake Snell
FanDuel DraftKings FantasyDraft
Salary: $7,100 Salary: $7,800 Salary: $15,200
Salary Rank: 9 of 21 Salary Rank: 8 of 21 Salary Rank: 7 of 21
Stats Starts SIERA ERA K% BB% GB% HC% SC%
2017 24 4.72 4.04 21.8% 10.8% 43.9% 33.2% 18.8%
2018 3 4.44 3.60 27.4% 16.1% 40.0% 25.7% 22.9%

Snell is off to a nice start this season. In three starts, he has a 3.60 ERA (4.44 SIERA) with a strikeout rate of 27%. The key with Snell is always the walks. When he is finding the strike zone, he can pitch deep into games with great upside. When he’s walking batters left and right, it can get ugly in an instant. I can certainly see why he’s going to be popular tonight — he’s a large favorite at home and as a whole, the Rangers have a high strikeout rate against southpaws. The main concern here is that the Rangers have five batters with at least a 12% walk rate against right-handed pitching. I’m going to wait to see who is calling balls and strikes before making a final decision on Snell.

Quick Breakdown: Snell obviously has upside in this spot, but he makes an interesting fade if he gets a hitter-friendly umpire behind the plate.

Batter Grind Down

Texas

Even though I will likely have less exposure to Blake Snell than the field (again, waiting to see who the umpire behind the plate is), I don’t have much interest in the Rangers. They are playing in a pitcher-friendly ballpark and have a low implied run total on the road. The one hitter that may find his way into my lineups is Robinson Chirinos. He is cheap on DraftKings ($3,100) and owns a .370 xwOBA and a 13% walk rate against southpaws since the beginning of last season.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. LH Pitching)

# Player Bats wOBA xwOBA ISO HC% BB% K% GB% FD Pos. FD Sal. DK Pos. DK Sal. FDRFT Pos. FDRFT Sal.
1 Shin-soo Choo LEFT 0.341 0.354 0.072 25.9% 12.2% 17.1% 60.0% OF $2,800 OF $3,100 RF $6,000
2 Jurickson Profar SWITCH 0.267 0.291 0.091 33.3% 26.7% 13.3% 33.3% SS $2,400 2B/SS $2,600 3B $4,900
3 Nomar Mazara LEFT 0.289 0.277 0.102 27.2% 5.4% 23.0% 58.3% OF $2,300 OF $3,200 RF $6,600
4 Adrian Beltre RIGHT 0.441 0.386 0.241 43.7% 13.7% 10.5% 39.4% 3B $3,100 3B $3,100 3B $6,000
5 Joey Gallo LEFT 0.345 0.373 0.246 44.6% 12.4% 39.3% 21.9% 1B $3,200 1B $3,800 1B $7,600
6 Robinson Chirinos RIGHT 0.418 0.370 0.256 41.0% 12.6% 23.2% 32.8% C $2,100 C $3,100 C $5,600
7 Ryan Rua RIGHT 0.298 0.311 0.111 47.1% 8.8% 27.5% 48.0% OF $2,100 OF $2,600 IF/OF $5,100
8 Drew Robinson LEFT 0.392 0.354 0.200 26.7% 10.7% 35.7% 46.7% OF $2,000 OF $2,500 IF/OF $4,500
9 Isiah Kiner-Falefa RIGHT 2B $2,200 2B/3B $2,400 3B $4,800

Elite Plays – Robinson Chirinos (DK)

Secondary Plays – Adrian Beltre

Stackability – ORANGE

Tampa Bay

We have conflicting trends here. Martin Perez is one of the best pitchers to stack against, yet the Rays are one of the worst offenses to stack. They do not hit left-handed pitching well and they strikeout at a high rate. They also have little to no firepower, so we can’t rely on them for a bunch of extra-base hits. I’m not sure where I stand with the Rays. I certainly won’t be playing Perez, but I may end up using the Rays as one-offs instead of as a full stack. Give the edge to the righties in this lineup, as Perez has given up a .383 xwOBA to batters from the right side of the plate.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. LH Pitching)

# Player Bats wOBA xwOBA ISO HC% BB% K% GB% FD Pos. FD Sal. DK Pos. DK Sal. FDRFT Pos. FDRFT Sal.
1 Matt Duffy RIGHT 0.052 0.190 0.000 23.1% 0.0% 23.5% 61.5% 3B $2,800 3B $3,200 3B $6,800
2 Joey Wendle LEFT 0.585 0.220 0.333 33.3% 14.3% 42.9% 66.7% 2B $2,700 2B $2,600 2B $4,600
3 Carlos Gomez RIGHT 0.295 0.268 0.163 31.3% 4.2% 33.6% 34.8% OF $2,700 OF $3,700 CF $7,600
4 C.J. Cron RIGHT 0.326 0.343 0.255 41.2% 5.5% 31.2% 30.9% 1B $2,500 1B $3,500 1B $6,300
5 Wilson Ramos RIGHT 0.290 0.324 0.127 35.5% 5.1% 14.1% 54.8% C $2,000 C $2,800 C $5,600
6 Adeiny Hechavarria RIGHT 0.300 0.287 0.168 32.1% 4.9% 18.6% 44.0% SS $2,000 SS $2,700 SS $5,900
7 Mallex Smith LEFT 0.313 0.183 0.068 25.8% 2.1% 31.9% 47.8% OF $2,800 OF $2,900 CF $5,600
8 Daniel Robertson RIGHT 0.317 0.292 0.102 16.3% 7.4% 1.9% 68.1% 2B $2,400 2B/SS $2,900 2B $5,800
9 Rob Refsnyder RIGHT 0.215 0.309 0.000 7.7% 24.5% 18.4% 46.2% OF $2,000 OF $2,100 IF/OF $3,900

Elite Plays – C.J. Cron, Wilson Ramos (DK)

Secondary Plays – Matt Duffy, Carlos Gomez

Stackability – YELLOW


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About the Author

  • Derek Farnsworth (Notorious)

  • Derek Farnsworth, aka Notorious, is one of the most recognizable names and faces in all of DFS, thanks in large part to the great advice he gives on a daily basis in RotoGrinders.com’s Grind Down for NBA and MLB as well as the First Look column that gives a preview of the day’s games from a DFS perspective. Before joining the RotoGrinders team, Derek received a Masters Degree from the University of Utah. When he’s not busy providing content, he’s dominating the industry as evidenced by his consistent top rankings in multiple sports. Farnsworth provides expert analysis for RotoGrinders Incentives members on a daily basis during the NBA season with daily videos for the Court Report and has also been nominated for five different Fantasy Sports Writer’s Association (FSWA) awards..

    Notorious

    Interview after $100,000 Win

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Comments

  • Kidlou76

    Where’s the Cubs game?

  • bhdevault

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    @Kidlou76 said...

    Where’s the Cubs game?

    Hello sir,

    The Cubs game is postponed.

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