MLB Grind Down: Monday, April 16th

by Derek Farnsworth (Notorious) Last Updated 2018-04-17 01:41:00

Jump to Page 1 2 3

The RotoGrinders MLB Grind Down will give you an in-depth analysis into the upcoming MLB schedule. This article will break down the numbers for every single game and give you analysis on which trends you can exploit. While matchups are a major factor in daily fantasy baseball, there are plenty of other factors to consider such as injuries, weather, and salaries.

The analysis should point you in the right direction, but it is still up to you to decipher the information and make your own selections. No sport has more variance than baseball. The best choice is not always the right choice but following the trends will win you money over time.

Note: As always, if you want to try a new DFS site, be sure to click through a RotoGrinders link and use our DraftKings promo code, FanDuel promo code, and FantasyDraft promo code to receive the best perks in the industry.

Stackability Rating System:

GREEN – A viable full stack in cash games and GPPs.
YELLOW – A viable mini-stack in cash games and full stack in GPPs.
ORANGE – A viable stack in large field GPPs.
RED – Not a recommended stack for cash games or GPPs.

Implied Run Totals

Ballpark Ratings

Miami at NY Yankees – 6:35 PM ET

Stats	wOBA	xwOBA	HC%	BB%	K%	GB%	Stats	wOBA	xwOBA	HC%	BB%	K%	GB%
Miami								NY Yankees
			Caleb Smith							Luis Severino
			LEFT							RIGHT
			Vegas Moneyline							Vegas Over/Under
			NYY-340							8.5
SP vs. Left (2016-17)	0.351	0.361	25.0%	11.6%	23.3%	35.7%	SP vs. Left (2016-17)	0.289	0.306	33.2%	7.7%	29.3%	46.7%
SP vs. Right (2016-17)	0.347	0.390	40.3%	14.4%	26.0%	24.2%	SP vs. Right (2016-17)	0.242	0.253	24.6%	6.0%	29.1%	55.1%

Pitcher Grind Down

	Stats	Starts	SIERA	ERA	K%	BB%	GB%	HC%	SC%
Caleb Smith
	FanDuel			DraftKings			FantasyDraft
	Salary:		$5,900	Salary:			Salary:
	Salary Rank:		16 of 21	Salary Rank:			Salary Rank:
	2017	2	4.86	7.71	20.9%	11.6%	27.6%	32.8%	19.0%
	2018	3	4.11	4.73	31.2%	16.4%	28.1%	40.6%	18.8%

Happy Monday everyone. It is a great time to be a sports fan. There are technically 12 games on the schedule tonight, but this one is not included in the main slate since it starts at 6:35 ET. I’m not sure why they would opt to start the game early, but it does shorten the main slate by one game. Smith gets a crack at revenge tonight, as he faces the team that traded him for Giancarlo Stanton. I don’t use narratives as often in baseball as I do in basketball, but I always find the whole revenge factor interesting. While I’m sure Smith would like some revenge, I doubt he gets it. He’s been in awful form to start the season and now has to face one of the best offenses in baseball. Vegas agrees with me here, as the Yankees are -340 today, which is one of the most lopsided lines I have seen in quite some time.

Quick Breakdown: Avoid Smith in all formats.

	Stats	Starts	SIERA	ERA	K%	BB%	GB%	HC%	SC%
Luis Severino
	FanDuel			DraftKings			FantasyDraft
	Salary:		$10,100	Salary:			Salary:
	Salary Rank:		1 of 21	Salary Rank:			Salary Rank:
	2017	31	3.25	2.98	29.4%	6.5%	50.6%	28.5%	19.4%
	2018	3	3.13	3.50	27.4%	9.6%	58.7%	28.3%	21.7%

It’s a shame that this game isn’t featured in the main slate because I would love to get exposure to Severino. Even though he struggled against the Red Sox his last time out, he still boasts a 3.13 SIERA with a strikeout rate of 27% and a ground ball rate of 59%. He does everything well that we look for in a pitcher and he draws an elite matchup as a bonus. The projected lineup for Miami has an average xwOBA of .310 and a strikeout rate of 19% against right-handed pitching. Severino should have no issue pitching deep into this game and run support should come in bunches.

Quick Breakdown: Severino is my favorite pitcher on the board, but unfortunately, he’s only available in the all-day slate.

Batter Grind Down

Miami

The Marlins have been a full fade for most of the season and that trend will continue tonight against the Yankees. While they see a favorable ballpark shift playing in New York, that’s not enough to overcome their matchup against Luis Severino. Since the beginning of last season, he has elite ground ball and strikeout rates and has held both left and right-handed hitters under a .310 xwOBA.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

#	Player	Bats	wOBA	xwOBA	ISO	HC%	BB%	K%	GB%	FD Pos.	FD Sal.	FDRFT Pos.	FDRFT Sal.
1	Derek Dietrich	LEFT	0.317	0.322	0.178	33.9%	7.5%	20.8%	36.0%	OF	$2,800	N/A	N/A
2	Miguel Rojas	RIGHT	0.335	0.317	0.086	22.6%	8.1%	10.7%	52.6%	SS	$2,900	N/A	N/A
3	Starlin Castro	RIGHT	0.322	0.306	0.143	28.8%	3.9%	19.6%	52.1%	2B	$3,000	N/A	N/A
4	Justin Bour	LEFT	0.378	0.402	0.252	40.4%	10.8%	20.0%	41.6%	1B	$3,100	N/A	N/A
5	Brian Anderson	RIGHT	0.336	0.311	0.109	26.8%	14.4%	19.8%	57.7%	3B	$2,900	N/A	N/A
6	JB Shuck	LEFT	0.623	0.441	0.286	28.6%	12.5%	0.0%	57.1%	OF	$2,000	N/A	N/A
7	Lewis Brinson	RIGHT	0.151	0.241	0.028	24.4%	7.5%	32.5%	62.2%	OF	$2,000	N/A	N/A
8	Bryan Holaday	RIGHT	0.226	0.270	0.068	14.6%	6.4%	6.4%	39.0%	C	$2,100	N/A	N/A
9	Braxton Lee	LEFT	0.198	0.192	0.000	0.0%	5.9%	41.2%	50.0%	OF	$2,000	N/A	N/A

Elite Plays – None

Secondary Plays – None

Stackability – RED

NY Yankees

Why oh why can’t this game be on the main slate? A Yankees’ stack looks so attractive. They are playing at home, they have a massive implied run total, and they are facing a fly-ball pitcher that gives up a lot of hard contact. They are also facing a pitcher that they are already familiar with since Caleb Smith was on the Yankees last season. The sample size is still small, but Smith has allowed a .390 xwOBA and a 40% hard contact to right-handed hitters. Fire up Aaron Judge, Giancarlo Stanton, and Gary Sanchez as elite plays in all formats. You can also stack the Yankees a number of ways and I wouldn’t hesitate to include the likes of Aaron Hicks, Brett Gardner, Didi Gregorius, and Tyler Austin.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. LH Pitching)

#	Player	Bats	wOBA	xwOBA	ISO	HC%	BB%	K%	GB%	FD Pos.	FD Sal.	FDRFT Pos.	FDRFT Sal.
1	Aaron Hicks	SWITCH	0.384	0.357	0.198	30.0%	10.9%	18.0%	47.2%	OF	$3,400	N/A	N/A
2	Aaron Judge	RIGHT	0.417	0.451	0.279	47.9%	26.2%	30.4%	31.0%	OF	$5,100	N/A	N/A
3	Giancarlo Stanton	RIGHT	0.496	0.472	0.464	45.1%	16.6%	16.0%	44.2%	OF	$4,800	N/A	N/A
4	Gary Sanchez	RIGHT	0.380	0.395	0.300	38.2%	10.4%	23.1%	39.3%	C	$3,900	N/A	N/A
5	Didi Gregorius	LEFT	0.286	0.269	0.089	15.4%	4.1%	14.1%	35.6%	SS	$4,300	N/A	N/A
6	Brett Gardner	LEFT	0.273	0.311	0.076	20.0%	9.4%	16.6%	50.0%	OF	$3,600	N/A	N/A
7	Tyler Austin	RIGHT	0.416	0.451	0.269	35.0%	12.5%	25.0%	35.0%	1B	$3,000	N/A	N/A
8	Miguel Andujar	RIGHT	0.239	0.217	0.000	9.1%	7.1%	14.3%	45.5%	3B	$2,300	N/A	N/A
9	Ronald Torreyes	RIGHT	0.317	0.232	0.038	15.7%	4.8%	11.9%	65.7%	2B	$2,400	N/A	N/A

Elite Plays – Austin Hicks, Aaron Judge, Giancarlo Stanton, Gary Sanchez

Secondary Plays – Brett Gardner, Didi Gregorius, Tyler Austin

Stackability – GREEN

Colorado at Pittsburgh – 7:05 PM ET

Stats	wOBA	xwOBA	HC%	BB%	K%	GB%	Stats	wOBA	xwOBA	HC%	BB%	K%	GB%
Colorado								Pittsburgh
			German Marquez							Steven Brault
			RIGHT							LEFT
			Vegas Moneyline							Vegas Over/Under
			PIT-130							8.0
SP vs. Left (2016-17)	0.320	0.313	31.2%	8.9%	17.9%	48.9%	SP vs. Left (2016-17)	0.258	0.277	16.2%	9.6%	17.3%	47.2%
SP vs. Right (2016-17)	0.362	0.337	36.7%	6.6%	23.4%	41.7%	SP vs. Right (2016-17)	0.358	0.369	42.4%	9.6%	14.4%	41.8%

Pitcher Grind Down

	Stats	Starts	SIERA	ERA	K%	BB%	GB%	HC%	SC%
German Marquez
	FanDuel			DraftKings			FantasyDraft
	Salary:		$5,900	Salary:		$6,000	Salary:		$11,700
	Salary Rank:		16 of 21	Salary Rank:		15 of 21	Salary Rank:		16 of 21
	2017	29	4.27	4.39	21.0%	7.0%	45.2%	34.5%	17.7%
	2018	3	5.65	4.97	16.7%	16.7%	48.7%	25.6%	18.0%

Marquez is off to a shaky start this season, posting a 5.65 SIERA with a strikeout rate (17%) that matches his walk rate. When at his best, he is inducing ground balls and soft contact. While he does see a significantly big ballpark boost playing in Pittsburgh, he’s still listed as an underdog in a game that features a total of 8.0 runs. While the Pirates may not have a ton of power in their lineup, they draw a ton of walks and take a lot of pitches. They also have one of the lowest strikeout rates in baseball.

Quick Breakdown: Marquez is an easy fade against the low-strikeout offense of the Pirates.

	Stats	Starts	SIERA	ERA	K%	BB%	GB%	HC%	SC%
Steven Brault
	FanDuel			DraftKings			FantasyDraft
	Salary:		$5,600	Salary:		$5,200	Salary:		$10,100
	Salary Rank:		19 of 21	Salary Rank:		17 of 21	Salary Rank:		17 of 21
	2017	4	5.23	4.67	14.2%	8.6%	40.8%	33.3%	21.1%
	2018	2	4.86	3.46	17.5%	12.3%	47.4%	46.2%	25.6%

Brault has yet to pitch more than five innings in any of his three appearances this season. Before we even dive into the numbers, that’s obviously not ideal. We want pitchers that can rack up strikeouts and/or pitch deep into games. While Brault is good at inducing soft soft, he has a low strikeout rate and a high walk rate. On the plus side, the Rockies strikeout as often as any team in baseball when facing a left-handed pitcher. Colorado’s projected lineup has an average strikeout rate of 27% against southpaws and they are going to be without Nolan Arenado. Brault has the advantage of pitching at home and in a good ballpark, which brings him into consideration as an SP2 in tournaments.

Quick Breakdown: This play is more about the matchup than it is about Brault, but he’s viable in tournaments at this cheap price point.

Batter Grind Down

Colorado

The Rockies aren’t the best offense when they are facing a left-handed pitcher or when they are playing away from Coors Field. Their matchup against Steven Brault doesn’t look terrible on paper, but I am going to rule out a full stack given the lack of depth in this lineup. Chris Iannetta, DJ LeMahieu, and Trevor Story are the top targets here, as Brault has allowed a .369 xwOBA and a 42% hard contact rate to right-handed hitters since the start of last season.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. LH Pitching)

#	Player	Bats	wOBA	xwOBA	ISO	HC%	BB%	K%	GB%	FD Pos.	FD Sal.	DK Pos.	DK Sal.	FDRFT Pos.	FDRFT Sal.
1	Charlie Blackmon	LEFT	0.406	0.362	0.233	34.4%	7.4%	16.8%	50.0%	OF	$4,300	OF	$5,100	CF	$9,800
2	Chris Iannetta	RIGHT	0.410	0.349	0.247	31.4%	15.5%	23.3%	47.1%	C	$2,300	C	$3,400	C	$6,700
3	DJ LeMahieu	RIGHT	0.424	0.407	0.222	37.4%	9.8%	10.3%	54.4%	2B	$3,800	2B	$4,300	2B	$8,100
4	Trevor Story	RIGHT	0.411	0.342	0.331	48.4%	11.8%	34.8%	28.4%	SS	$3,100	SS	$4,100	SS	$8,500
5	Ian Desmond	RIGHT	0.307	0.260	0.140	26.4%	5.6%	23.2%	65.5%	1B	$2,600	1B/OF	$3,700	LF	$7,600
6	Carlos Gonzalez	LEFT	0.235	0.224	0.098	34.3%	3.8%	30.0%	58.1%	OF	$2,900	OF	$3,600	RF	$7,300
7	Pat Valaika	RIGHT	0.322	0.288	0.255	30.4%	5.9%	26.5%	31.3%	SS	$2,000	SS	$2,800	SS	$5,800
8	Ryan McMahon	LEFT	0.189	0.221	0.000	0.0%	27.3%	54.5%	100.0%	3B	$2,000	1B/2B	$2,800	1B	$5,700
9	German Marquez	RIGHT	0.211	0.127	0.100	0.0%	0.0%	25.0%	85.7%	P	$5,900	P	$6,000	P	$11,700

Elite Plays – Chris Iannetta (DK)

Secondary Plays – DJ LeMahieu, Trevor Story

Stackability – ORANGE

Pittsburgh

The Pirates draw a mediocre matchup against German Marquez. There isn’t anything that really stands out when we look at his splits. In 2017, he had an average strikeout rate, an average ground ball rate, and comparable splits to left and right-handed hitters. Meanwhile, the Pirates are an offense that is loaded with high-contact batters that are patient at the plate. In other words, there isn’t a lot that stands out from a matchup perspective. I’m fine with a Pirates’ hitter as the last piece of a lineup, but I’m not going out of my way to target this offense.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

#	Player	Bats	wOBA	xwOBA	ISO	HC%	BB%	K%	GB%	FD Pos.	FD Sal.	DK Pos.	DK Sal.	FDRFT Pos.	FDRFT Sal.
1	Josh Harrison	RIGHT	0.318	0.321	0.139	33.7%	5.0%	16.6%	35.2%	2B	$3,400	2B	$4,000	2B	$7,500
2	Gregory Polanco	LEFT	0.320	0.340	0.187	29.1%	8.0%	13.0%	40.1%	OF	$4,400	OF	$4,700	RF	$9,000
3	Starling Marte	RIGHT	0.349	0.333	0.138	26.2%	7.2%	17.3%	47.4%	OF	$3,900	OF	$4,300	CF	$8,100
4	Josh Bell	SWITCH	0.343	0.333	0.205	33.1%	11.1%	19.7%	51.8%	1B	$3,600	1B	$3,900	1B	$7,700
5	Corey Dickerson	LEFT	0.344	0.335	0.225	35.2%	5.9%	22.7%	38.1%	OF	$4,100	OF	$3,900	LF	$7,500
6	Francisco Cervelli	RIGHT	0.326	0.342	0.130	33.7%	10.9%	19.2%	47.6%	C	$2,700	C	$3,100	C	$6,000
7	Colin Moran	LEFT	0.369	0.429	0.167	37.8%	10.6%	10.6%	37.8%	3B	$2,900	3B	$3,600	3B	$7,300
8	Jordy Mercer	RIGHT	0.310	0.304	0.147	28.1%	9.5%	15.5%	47.1%	SS	$2,800	SS	$3,100	SS	$5,500
9	Steven Brault	LEFT	0.230	0.215	0.077	7.7%	0.0%	0.0%	66.7%	P	$5,600	P	$5,200	P	$10,100

Elite Plays – None

Secondary Plays – Gregory Polanco, Starling Marte, Josh Bell, Corey Dickerson

Stackability – ORANGE / YELLOW

Kansas City at Toronto – 7:07 PM ET

Stats	wOBA	xwOBA	HC%	BB%	K%	GB%	Stats	wOBA	xwOBA	HC%	BB%	K%	GB%
Kansas City								Toronto
			Eric Skoglund							Jaime Garcia
			LEFT							LEFT
			Vegas Moneyline							Vegas Over/Under
			TOR-210							9.0
SP vs. Left (2016-17)	0.363	0.321	33.3%	8.7%	13.0%	42.9%	SP vs. Left (2016-17)	0.300	0.262	28.7%	3.9%	25.8%	57.7%
SP vs. Right (2016-17)	0.459	0.375	36.6%	12.6%	12.6%	35.2%	SP vs. Right (2016-17)	0.332	0.346	32.1%	11.0%	17.9%	53.0%

Pitcher Grind Down

	Stats	Starts	SIERA	ERA	K%	BB%	GB%	HC%	SC%
Eric Skoglund
	FanDuel			DraftKings			FantasyDraft
	Salary:		$5,500	Salary:		$4,900	Salary:		$9,600
	Salary Rank:		20 of 21	Salary Rank:		18 of 21	Salary Rank:		18 of 21
	2017	5	5.83	9.50	15.1%	12.9%	36.4%	34.3%	13.4%
	2018	1	6.71	9.64	4.0%	8.0%	36.8%	42.1%	15.8%

Skoglund was scheduled to pitch yesterday, but we had a surprise rainout in Kansas City. He’ll now take the mound against the Blue Jays in the hitter-friendly Rogers Centre. A quick glance at his pitching table above tells us all we need to know about Skoglund. Any pitcher with that many red boxes should not be on our radar. He owns a high SIERA, a low strikeout rate, and he’s a fly-ball pitcher that gives up a lot of hard contact.

Quick Breakdown: Skoglund is one of the easiest fades of the slate.

	Stats	Starts	SIERA	ERA	K%	BB%	GB%	HC%	SC%
Jaime Garcia
	FanDuel			DraftKings			FantasyDraft
	Salary:		$6,500	Salary:		$7,100	Salary:		$13,800
	Salary Rank:		11 of 21	Salary Rank:		10 of 21	Salary Rank:		10 of 21
	2017	27	4.54	4.41	19.2%	9.5%	54.8%	30.5%	20.7%
	2018	2	3.49	3.18	26.7%	8.9%	40.7%	46.4%	14.3%

Garcia is the ultimate troll when it comes to DFS. He does this every single year. He’ll string together a few good starts, he’ll become the chalk in a great matchup, and they he’ll get rocked and everyone will be left wondering why on earth they used him in cash games. I’m not saying that the Garcia train is going to come to a halt tonight, but I don’t expect him to sustain a 3.49 SIERA and a 27% strikeout rate all season. Now, even though I hate the idea of a chalky Garcia, he does make a lot of sense here. He’s cheap across the industry and he’s facing a Royals’ offense that does not fare well against southpaws. Their projected lineup has an average xwOBA of .302 with a 23% strikeout rate against lefties.

Quick Breakdown: I’m sure I’ll end up with a lot of Garcia tonight, even though I’ve been warned (by myself).

Batter Grind Down

Kansas City

The Royals see a favorable ballpark shift playing in Toronto, but their offense is not equipped to left-handed pitching. They have a total of three batters in their projected lineup with an xwOBA over .305 against southpaws. While Jaime Garcia can struggle with his command at times, he typically has a high ground ball rate and an average strikeout rate. This is far from an ideal matchup and I’d much rather take my chances with Garcia rather than the Royals’ offense.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. LH Pitching)

#	Player	Bats	wOBA	xwOBA	ISO	HC%	BB%	K%	GB%	FD Pos.	FD Sal.	DK Pos.	DK Sal.	FDRFT Pos.	FDRFT Sal.
1	Abraham Almonte	SWITCH	0.239	0.251	0.061	19.4%	10.7%	25.0%	68.6%	OF	$2,000	OF	$2,500	RF	$4,900
2	Whit Merrifield	RIGHT	0.338	0.338	0.180	34.2%	5.4%	15.4%	38.3%	2B	$3,100	2B/OF	$4,100	IF/OF	$8,300
3	Mike Moustakas	LEFT	0.316	0.304	0.184	30.3%	3.3%	16.6%	41.7%	3B	$3,600	3B	$4,400	3B	$8,400
4	Cheslor Cuthbert	RIGHT	0.275	0.253	0.108	21.7%	5.7%	27.1%	43.5%	1B	$2,300	3B	$3,000	3B	$5,700
5	Jorge Soler	RIGHT	0.266	0.348	0.167	48.5%	10.9%	29.1%	39.4%	OF	$2,200	OF	$3,200	RF	$6,800
6	Lucas Duda	LEFT	0.260	0.279	0.193	34.8%	6.4%	36.8%	40.6%	1B	$2,600	1B	$3,600	1B	$7,300
7	Paulo Orlando	RIGHT	0.350	0.374	0.111	33.3%	0.0%	21.4%	33.3%	OF	$2,300	OF	$2,800	RF	$5,400
8	Alcides Escobar	RIGHT	0.325	0.293	0.155	32.8%	5.2%	15.6%	40.3%	SS	$2,400	SS	$2,900	SS	$5,500
9	Drew Butera	RIGHT	0.251	0.277	0.100	36.8%	8.9%	23.2%	21.1%	C	$2,200	C	$2,600	C	$4,500

Elite Plays – None

Secondary Plays – Whit Merrifield

Stackability – RED

Toronto

The only argument against the Blue Jays tonight is ownership. That’s literally the only argument I can come up with. They are playing at home in a hitter-friendly ballpark and they have arguably the best matchup of the slate. In his last six major league starts, Skoglund has allowed a .321 xwOBA to lefties and a .375 xwOBA to righties. During that same stretch, he has a low strikeout rate and a high hard contact rate. The Blue Jays are cheap across the industry and they have the highest implied run total of any team in the main slate. I know that anything can happen in baseball, but everything is lining up for Toronto’s offense. If you are stacking the Blue Jays in tournaments, make sure to differentiate your lineup somehow. You can include some of the lower batters in the order or target a low-owned pitcher.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. LH Pitching)

#	Player	Bats	wOBA	xwOBA	ISO	HC%	BB%	K%	GB%	FD Pos.	FD Sal.	DK Pos.	DK Sal.	FDRFT Pos.	FDRFT Sal.
1	Steve Pearce	RIGHT	0.332	0.341	0.265	36.4%	7.8%	22.4%	39.0%	OF	$2,700	OF	$3,100	1B	$5,600
2	Teoscar Hernandez	RIGHT	0.293	0.329	0.296	33.3%	0.0%	46.4%	13.3%	OF	$2,700	OF	$2,600	CF	$5,000
3	Justin Smoak	SWITCH	0.413	0.399	0.211	35.3%	12.2%	14.6%	37.8%	1B	$3,800	1B	$4,800	1B	$8,400
4	Yangervis Solarte	SWITCH	0.260	0.311	0.079	27.6%	9.4%	9.4%	46.5%	3B	$3,200	2B/3B	$3,600	2B	$7,700
5	Russell Martin	RIGHT	0.271	0.329	0.114	34.8%	14.0%	29.1%	35.6%	C	$2,200	C	$3,200	C	$6,300
6	Kevin Pillar	RIGHT	0.384	0.334	0.221	30.5%	6.0%	14.5%	40.0%	OF	$2,700	OF	$3,200	CF	$6,400
7	Randal Grichuk	RIGHT	0.272	0.350	0.182	38.5%	7.6%	26.9%	29.5%	OF	$2,100	OF	$3,500	LF	$6,700
8	Aledmys Diaz	RIGHT	0.251	0.261	0.048	23.5%	8.7%	17.4%	38.0%	SS	$2,600	SS	$3,100	SS	$5,600
9	Devon Travis	RIGHT	0.412	0.437	0.286	25.0%	10.3%	17.9%	39.3%	2B	$2,200	2B	$3,000	2B	$5,900

Elite Plays – Steve Pearce, Teoscar Hernandez, Justin Smoak, Russell Martin

Secondary Plays – Yangervis Solarte, Kevin Pillar, Randal Grichuk, Devon Travis (bump to elite if he’s at the top of the lineup)

Stackability – GREEN

Texas at Tampa Bay – 7:10 PM ET

Stats	wOBA	xwOBA	HC%	BB%	K%	GB%	Stats	wOBA	xwOBA	HC%	BB%	K%	GB%
Texas								Tampa Bay
			Martin Perez							Blake Snell
			LEFT							LEFT
			Vegas Moneyline							Vegas Over/Under
			TB -170							8.0
SP vs. Left (2016-17)	0.295	0.298	29.4%	4.9%	21.2%	54.2%	SP vs. Left (2016-17)	0.216	0.258	26.3%	11.1%	25.6%	47.4%
SP vs. Right (2016-17)	0.372	0.383	36.0%	8.5%	12.0%	45.3%	SP vs. Right (2016-17)	0.319	0.321	33.2%	11.4%	21.8%	42.9%

Pitcher Grind Down

	Stats	Starts	SIERA	ERA	K%	BB%	GB%	HC%	SC%
Martin Perez
	FanDuel			DraftKings			FantasyDraft
	Salary:		$5,700	Salary:		$6,600	Salary:		$13,200
	Salary Rank:		18 of 21	Salary Rank:		12 of 21	Salary Rank:		12 of 21
	2017	32	5.04	4.82	14.2%	7.8%	47.3%	33.3%	15.2%
	2018	2	6.01	11.88	6.4%	8.5%	41.0%	59.0%	12.8%

Perez is yet another pitcher that we love to stack against. He used to crush stacks thanks to a high ground ball rate, but that number has been declining in each of the last three seasons. In fact, his ground ball rate this season is below the league average. It’s not sustainable, but look at his hard contact rate (59%). Even though the Rays are an offense that we’ve been picking on all season, we should steer clear of Perez. He doesn’t have enough strikeout upside to make up for the runs that he’s going to allow.

Quick Breakdown: Perez is an easy fade in all formats.

	Stats	Starts	SIERA	ERA	K%	BB%	GB%	HC%	SC%
Blake Snell
	FanDuel			DraftKings			FantasyDraft
	Salary:		$7,100	Salary:		$7,800	Salary:		$15,200
	Salary Rank:		9 of 21	Salary Rank:		8 of 21	Salary Rank:		7 of 21
	2017	24	4.72	4.04	21.8%	10.8%	43.9%	33.2%	18.8%
	2018	3	4.44	3.60	27.4%	16.1%	40.0%	25.7%	22.9%

Snell is off to a nice start this season. In three starts, he has a 3.60 ERA (4.44 SIERA) with a strikeout rate of 27%. The key with Snell is always the walks. When he is finding the strike zone, he can pitch deep into games with great upside. When he’s walking batters left and right, it can get ugly in an instant. I can certainly see why he’s going to be popular tonight — he’s a large favorite at home and as a whole, the Rangers have a high strikeout rate against southpaws. The main concern here is that the Rangers have five batters with at least a 12% walk rate against right-handed pitching. I’m going to wait to see who is calling balls and strikes before making a final decision on Snell.

Quick Breakdown: Snell obviously has upside in this spot, but he makes an interesting fade if he gets a hitter-friendly umpire behind the plate.

Batter Grind Down

Texas

Even though I will likely have less exposure to Blake Snell than the field (again, waiting to see who the umpire behind the plate is), I don’t have much interest in the Rangers. They are playing in a pitcher-friendly ballpark and have a low implied run total on the road. The one hitter that may find his way into my lineups is Robinson Chirinos. He is cheap on DraftKings ($3,100) and owns a .370 xwOBA and a 13% walk rate against southpaws since the beginning of last season.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. LH Pitching)

#	Player	Bats	wOBA	xwOBA	ISO	HC%	BB%	K%	GB%	FD Pos.	FD Sal.	DK Pos.	DK Sal.	FDRFT Pos.	FDRFT Sal.
1	Shin-soo Choo	LEFT	0.341	0.354	0.072	25.9%	12.2%	17.1%	60.0%	OF	$2,800	OF	$3,100	RF	$6,000
2	Jurickson Profar	SWITCH	0.267	0.291	0.091	33.3%	26.7%	13.3%	33.3%	SS	$2,400	2B/SS	$2,600	3B	$4,900
3	Nomar Mazara	LEFT	0.289	0.277	0.102	27.2%	5.4%	23.0%	58.3%	OF	$2,300	OF	$3,200	RF	$6,600
4	Adrian Beltre	RIGHT	0.441	0.386	0.241	43.7%	13.7%	10.5%	39.4%	3B	$3,100	3B	$3,100	3B	$6,000
5	Joey Gallo	LEFT	0.345	0.373	0.246	44.6%	12.4%	39.3%	21.9%	1B	$3,200	1B	$3,800	1B	$7,600
6	Robinson Chirinos	RIGHT	0.418	0.370	0.256	41.0%	12.6%	23.2%	32.8%	C	$2,100	C	$3,100	C	$5,600
7	Ryan Rua	RIGHT	0.298	0.311	0.111	47.1%	8.8%	27.5%	48.0%	OF	$2,100	OF	$2,600	IF/OF	$5,100
8	Drew Robinson	LEFT	0.392	0.354	0.200	26.7%	10.7%	35.7%	46.7%	OF	$2,000	OF	$2,500	IF/OF	$4,500
9	Isiah Kiner-Falefa	RIGHT								2B	$2,200	2B/3B	$2,400	3B	$4,800

Elite Plays – Robinson Chirinos (DK)

Secondary Plays – Adrian Beltre

Stackability – ORANGE

Tampa Bay

We have conflicting trends here. Martin Perez is one of the best pitchers to stack against, yet the Rays are one of the worst offenses to stack. They do not hit left-handed pitching well and they strikeout at a high rate. They also have little to no firepower, so we can’t rely on them for a bunch of extra-base hits. I’m not sure where I stand with the Rays. I certainly won’t be playing Perez, but I may end up using the Rays as one-offs instead of as a full stack. Give the edge to the righties in this lineup, as Perez has given up a .383 xwOBA to batters from the right side of the plate.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. LH Pitching)

#	Player	Bats	wOBA	xwOBA	ISO	HC%	BB%	K%	GB%	FD Pos.	FD Sal.	DK Pos.	DK Sal.	FDRFT Pos.	FDRFT Sal.
1	Matt Duffy	RIGHT	0.052	0.190	0.000	23.1%	0.0%	23.5%	61.5%	3B	$2,800	3B	$3,200	3B	$6,800
2	Joey Wendle	LEFT	0.585	0.220	0.333	33.3%	14.3%	42.9%	66.7%	2B	$2,700	2B	$2,600	2B	$4,600
3	Carlos Gomez	RIGHT	0.295	0.268	0.163	31.3%	4.2%	33.6%	34.8%	OF	$2,700	OF	$3,700	CF	$7,600
4	C.J. Cron	RIGHT	0.326	0.343	0.255	41.2%	5.5%	31.2%	30.9%	1B	$2,500	1B	$3,500	1B	$6,300
5	Wilson Ramos	RIGHT	0.290	0.324	0.127	35.5%	5.1%	14.1%	54.8%	C	$2,000	C	$2,800	C	$5,600
6	Adeiny Hechavarria	RIGHT	0.300	0.287	0.168	32.1%	4.9%	18.6%	44.0%	SS	$2,000	SS	$2,700	SS	$5,900
7	Mallex Smith	LEFT	0.313	0.183	0.068	25.8%	2.1%	31.9%	47.8%	OF	$2,800	OF	$2,900	CF	$5,600
8	Daniel Robertson	RIGHT	0.317	0.292	0.102	16.3%	7.4%	1.9%	68.1%	2B	$2,400	2B/SS	$2,900	2B	$5,800
9	Rob Refsnyder	RIGHT	0.215	0.309	0.000	7.7%	24.5%	18.4%	46.2%	OF	$2,000	OF	$2,100	IF/OF	$3,900

MLB Grind Down: Monday, April 16th

Jump to Page 1 2 3

Stackability Rating System:

Implied Run Totals

Ballpark Ratings

Miami at NY Yankees – 6:35 PM ET

Pitcher Grind Down

Batter Grind Down

Miami

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

Elite Plays – None

Secondary Plays – None

Stackability – RED

NY Yankees

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. LH Pitching)

Elite Plays – Austin Hicks, Aaron Judge, Giancarlo Stanton, Gary Sanchez

Secondary Plays – Brett Gardner, Didi Gregorius, Tyler Austin

Stackability – GREEN

Colorado at Pittsburgh – 7:05 PM ET

Pitcher Grind Down

Batter Grind Down

Colorado

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. LH Pitching)

Elite Plays – Chris Iannetta (DK)

Secondary Plays – DJ LeMahieu, Trevor Story

Stackability – ORANGE

Pittsburgh

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

Elite Plays – None

Secondary Plays – Gregory Polanco, Starling Marte, Josh Bell, Corey Dickerson

Stackability – ORANGE / YELLOW

Kansas City at Toronto – 7:07 PM ET

Pitcher Grind Down

Batter Grind Down

Kansas City

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. LH Pitching)

Elite Plays – None

Secondary Plays – Whit Merrifield

Stackability – RED

Toronto

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. LH Pitching)

Elite Plays – Steve Pearce, Teoscar Hernandez, Justin Smoak, Russell Martin

Secondary Plays – Yangervis Solarte, Kevin Pillar, Randal Grichuk, Devon Travis (bump to elite if he’s at the top of the lineup)

Stackability – GREEN

Texas at Tampa Bay – 7:10 PM ET

Pitcher Grind Down

Batter Grind Down

Texas

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. LH Pitching)

Elite Plays – Robinson Chirinos (DK)

Secondary Plays – Adrian Beltre

Stackability – ORANGE

Tampa Bay

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. LH Pitching)

Elite Plays – C.J. Cron, Wilson Ramos (DK)

Secondary Plays – Matt Duffy, Carlos Gomez

Stackability – YELLOW

Jump to Page 1 2 3

About the Author