MLB Grind Down: Monday, July 23rd
Jump to Page 1 2 3
The RotoGrinders MLB Grind Down will give you an in-depth analysis into the upcoming MLB schedule. This article will break down the numbers for every single game and give you analysis on which trends you can exploit. While matchups are a major factor in daily fantasy baseball, there are plenty of other factors to consider such as injuries, weather, and salaries.
The analysis should point you in the right direction, but it is still up to you to decipher the information and make your own selections. No sport has more variance than baseball. The best choice is not always the right choice but following the trends will win you money over time.
Note: As always, if you want to try a new DFS site, be sure to click through a RotoGrinders link and use our DraftKings promo code, FanDuel promo code, and FantasyDraft promo code to receive the best perks in the industry.
Stackability Rating System:
GREEN – A viable full stack in cash games and GPPs.
YELLOW – A viable mini-stack in cash games and full stack in GPPs.
ORANGE – A viable stack in large field GPPs.
RED – Not a recommended stack for cash games or GPPs.
Implied Run Totals
Ballpark Ratings
Boston at Baltimore – 7:05 PM ET
| Boston | Baltimore | ||||||||||||||
 | Rick Porcello |  | Kevin Gausman | ||||||||||||
| RIGHT | RIGHT | ||||||||||||||
| Vegas Moneyline | Vegas Over/Under | ||||||||||||||
| BOS-155 | 9.0 | ||||||||||||||
| Stats | wOBA | xwOBA | HC% | aEV | K% | GB% | Stats | wOBA | xwOBA | HC% | aEV | K% | GB% | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SP vs. Left (2016-17) | 0.318 | 0.335 | 40.4% | 89.4 | 26.6% | 33.8% | SP vs. Left (2016-17) | 0.327 | 0.327 | 26.5% | 87.5 | 20.6% | 45.0% | ||
| SP vs. Right (2016-17) | 0.299 | 0.307 | 24.9% | 87.7 | 18.8% | 53.1% | SP vs. Right (2016-17) | 0.358 | 0.359 | 35.6% | 89.4 | 19.6% | 48.0% | ||
Pitcher Grind Down
| Rick Porcello | |||||||||||
 | FanDuel | DraftKings | FantasyDraft | ||||||||
| Salary: | $9,000 | Salary: | $9,900 | Salary: | $19,700 | ||||||
| Salary Rank: | 6 of 26 | Salary Rank: | 6 of 26 | Salary Rank: | 6 of 26 | ||||||
| Stats | Starts | SIERA | ERA | K% | BB% | GB% | HC% | SC% | aFV | SwS% | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2017 | 33 | 4.28 | 4.65 | 20.5% | 5.4% | 39.2% | 38.3% | 17.1% | 91.1 | 9.4% | |
| 2018 | 20 | 3.86 | 4.13 | 22.3% | 6.0% | 45.1% | 31.4% | 21.1% | 90.4 | 8.6% | |
| L14 | 1 | 8.01 | 36.00 | 11.8% | 23.5% | 36.4% | 36.4% | 9.1% | 91.0 | 6.3% | |
Porcello let me down in a big way the other night against the Blue Jays, allowing eight earned runs in only two innings of work. It was a bit surprising, as he’s typically not a pitcher that gets blown up very often. Overall, his numbers on the season are still respectable — 3.86 SIERA with a strikeout rate of 22% and a ground ball rate of 45%. The reason why I have interest tonight isn’t necessarily his skill, it’s his matchup against the Manny Machado-less Orioles. Baltimore’s projected lineup has a .288 xwOBA with eight righties. Porcello should be licking his chops, as he has held right-handed hitters to a .307 xwOBA on a 53% ground ball rate.
Quick Breakdown: This is a perfect matchup for Porcello and it’s a near certainty that he’s going to fly under the radar. He’s one of my favorite tournament targets.
| Kevin Gausman | |||||||||||
 | FanDuel | DraftKings | FantasyDraft | ||||||||
| Salary: | $6,300 | Salary: | $6,000 | Salary: | $12,200 | ||||||
| Salary Rank: | 17 of 26 | Salary Rank: | 17 of 26 | Salary Rank: | 17 of 26 | ||||||
| Stats | Starts | SIERA | ERA | K% | BB% | GB% | HC% | SC% | aFV | SwS% | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2017 | 34 | 4.41 | 4.68 | 21.9% | 8.7% | 42.7% | 32.3% | 18.2% | 95.0 | 10.9% | |
| 2018 | 19 | 4.00 | 4.33 | 20.0% | 5.6% | 46.7% | 31.7% | 19.1% | 93.7 | 11.5% | |
| L14 | 1 | 5.23 | 9.00 | 6.9% | 3.5% | 48.0% | 32.0% | 32.0% | 93.7 | 9.1% | |
Gausman will flash immense upside every now and then, but his numbers as a whole are very mediocre. In 19 starts this season, he owns a 4.00 SIERA with a strikeout rate of 20%. While he has good control, that doesn’t always lead to success against offenses like the Red Sox. Boston’s projected lineup has a .388 xwOBA with a 38% hard contact rate and a strikeout rate of only 19%. There is certainly more risk than upside with Gausman in this spot, even though he’s actually had some success against the Red Sox in the past.
Quick Breakdown: Avoid Gausman in all formats.
Batter Grind Down
Boston
The Red Sox haven’t had a ton of success against Kevin Gausman in the past, but that doesn’t mean that the trend will continue moving forward. Gausman is a reverse-splits pitcher (allowing a .359 xwOBA and a 36% hard contact rate to righties) and the Red Sox lineup is loaded with right-handed power. If you scroll up to the top of the page and look at the ballpark chart, you will see that Camden Yards is one of the best home run parks for hitters that bat from the right side. There are more positives than negatives when it comes to Boston in this matchup. Mookie Betts, J.D. Martinez, and Xander Bogaerts all bat from the right side and all boast a .390+ xwOBA against right-handed pitching.
Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)
| # | Player | Bats | xwOBA | aEV | ISO | HC% | BB% | K% | GB% | FD Pos. | FD Sal. | DK Pos. | DK Sal. | FDRFT Pos. | FDRFT Sal. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Mookie Betts | RIGHT | 0.469 | 92.8 | 0.282 | 45.3% | 12.1% | 12.5% | 32.3% | OF | $5,000 | OF | $6,200 | RF | $10,800 |
| 2 | Andrew Benintendi | LEFT | 0.421 | 89.4 | 0.224 | 31.4% | 13.5% | 14.7% | 35.8% | OF | $4,200 | OF | $5,600 | LF | $10,000 |
| 3 | J.D. Martinez | RIGHT | 0.465 | 93.8 | 0.349 | 48.8% | 10.4% | 21.5% | 45.4% | OF | $4,800 | OF | $5,800 | RF | $10,600 |
| 4 | Mitch Moreland | LEFT | 0.431 | 92.5 | 0.232 | 37.9% | 11.5% | 18.0% | 41.2% | 1B | $3,200 | 1B | $4,600 | 1B | $9,100 |
| 5 | Xander Bogaerts | RIGHT | 0.394 | 91.7 | 0.278 | 39.5% | 6.2% | 16.8% | 47.5% | SS | $3,900 | SS | $5,300 | SS | $9,800 |
| 6 | Brock Holt | LEFT | 0.326 | 86.9 | 0.104 | 28.5% | 8.1% | 15.0% | 55.4% | 2B | $2,500 | 2B/SS | $3,800 | 2B | $7,700 |
| 7 | Rafael Devers | LEFT | 0.333 | 91.9 | 0.201 | 38.0% | 7.7% | 24.6% | 43.2% | 3B | $3,000 | 3B | $4,200 | 3B | $8,300 |
| 8 | Sandy Leon | SWITCH | 0.277 | 86.2 | 0.133 | 34.6% | 3.3% | 29.2% | 43.4% | C | $2,400 | C | $3,300 | C | $6,300 |
| 9 | Jackie Bradley | LEFT | 0.378 | 92.7 | 0.165 | 41.6% | 9.6% | 22.0% | 39.4% | OF | $2,900 | OF | $4,100 | CF | $8,300 |
| Team Averages | 0.388 | 90.9 | 0.219 | 38.4% | 9.2% | 19.4% | 42.6% |
Elite Plays – Mookie Betts, J.D. Martinez, Xander Bogaerts (GPP)
Secondary Plays – Xander Bogaerts (Cash), Andrew Benintendi, Mitch Moreland
Stackability – YELLOW
Baltimore
This is hyperbole, but there’s a chance that I don’t roster another player from the Orioles the rest of the season. Their offense is atrocious and their pitching rotation isn’t any better. While they are playing at home in a hitter-friendly ballpark, Baltimore’s implied run total of 4.05 runs seems too high. Rick Porcello isn’t an elite pitcher by any means, but he has an average strikeout rate (22%), good control, and an ability to dominate against right-handed hitters (in 2018, he’s held them to a .307 xwOBA on a 53% ground ball rate). The Orioles get a big thanks, but no thanks from me tonight.
Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)
| # | Player | Bats | xwOBA | aEV | ISO | HC% | BB% | K% | GB% | FD Pos. | FD Sal. | DK Pos. | DK Sal. | FDRFT Pos. | FDRFT Sal. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Tim Beckham | RIGHT | 0.284 | 86.3 | 0.081 | 28.1% | 4.8% | 27.6% | 46.3% | SS | $2,600 | 3B | $3,300 | SS | $6,700 |
| 2 | Jonathan Schoop | RIGHT | 0.263 | 85.7 | 0.208 | 27.0% | 2.1% | 22.9% | 46.3% | 2B | $3,200 | 2B | $3,700 | 2B | $7,300 |
| 3 | Adam Jones | RIGHT | 0.324 | 88.2 | 0.176 | 31.4% | 3.4% | 18.2% | 41.5% | OF | $3,000 | OF | $3,800 | CF | $7,600 |
| 4 | Mark Trumbo | RIGHT | 0.364 | 93.4 | 0.205 | 42.2% | 7.3% | 25.1% | 38.3% | OF | $2,900 | 1B/OF | $3,700 | DH | $7,200 |
| 5 | Chris Davis | LEFT | 0.293 | 87.8 | 0.109 | 34.3% | 7.4% | 36.0% | 42.4% | 1B | $2,300 | 1B | $3,000 | IF/OF | $5,900 |
| 6 | Trey Mancini | RIGHT | 0.356 | 90.3 | 0.155 | 32.4% | 8.9% | 24.7% | 51.8% | OF | $2,600 | 1B/OF | $3,400 | IF/OF | $6,700 |
| 7 | Renato Nunez | RIGHT | 0.258 | 93.2 | 0.107 | 30.0% | 3.4% | 27.6% | 40.0% | 3B | $2,000 | 3B/OF | $3,600 | IF/OF | $7,700 |
| 8 | Joey Rickard | RIGHT | 0.283 | 86.9 | 0.133 | 29.2% | 7.6% | 18.2% | 43.8% | OF | $2,200 | OF | $2,700 | RF | $5,400 |
| 9 | Austin Wynns | RIGHT | 0.168 | 78.2 | 0.214 | 55.6% | 6.3% | 37.5% | 50.0% | C | $2,000 | C | $3,000 | C | $5,400 |
| Team Averages | 0.288 | 87.8 | 0.154 | 34.5% | 5.7% | 26.4% | 44.5% |
Elite Plays – None
Secondary Plays – None
Stackability – RED
LA Dodgers at Philadelphia – 7:05 PM ET
| LA Dodgers | Philadelphia | ||||||||||||||
 | Ross Stripling |  | Zach Eflin | ||||||||||||
| RIGHT | RIGHT | ||||||||||||||
| Vegas Moneyline | Vegas Over/Under | ||||||||||||||
| LAD-137 | 8.5 | ||||||||||||||
| Stats | wOBA | xwOBA | HC% | aEV | K% | GB% | Stats | wOBA | xwOBA | HC% | aEV | K% | GB% | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SP vs. Left (2016-17) | 0.260 | 0.235 | 25.0% | 83.9 | 31.1% | 51.6% | SP vs. Left (2016-17) | 0.316 | 0.331 | 25.9% | 88.3 | 24.4% | 31.3% | ||
| SP vs. Right (2016-17) | 0.298 | 0.265 | 34.6% | 87.8 | 25.0% | 46.6% | SP vs. Right (2016-17) | 0.254 | 0.261 | 26.1% | 85.0 | 23.7% | 41.7% | ||
Pitcher Grind Down
| Ross Stripling | |||||||||||
 | FanDuel | DraftKings | FantasyDraft | ||||||||
| Salary: | $9,600 | Salary: | $10,200 | Salary: | $19,900 | ||||||
| Salary Rank: | 4 of 26 | Salary Rank: | 5 of 26 | Salary Rank: | 5 of 26 | ||||||
| Stats | Starts | SIERA | ERA | K% | BB% | GB% | HC% | SC% | aFV | SwS% | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2017 | 2 | 3.37 | 3.75 | 24.3% | 6.3% | 49.3% | 27.0% | 20.4% | 92.9 | 11.7% | |
| 2018 | 14 | 2.87 | 2.08 | 28.1% | 3.7% | 49.0% | 29.9% | 19.9% | 91.7 | 11.0% | |
| L14 | 1 | 3.81 | 0.00 | 20.0% | 4.0% | 44.4% | 52.6% | 15.8% | 91.4 | 6.7% | |
Stripling has been nothing short of incredible this season, posting a 2.87 SIERA with a strikeout rate of 28% and a walk rate of 4%. His K%-BB% is 24%, which is one of the best in baseball. He keeps the ball on the ground and he limits hard contact. Pitching in Citizens Bank Park is never ideal, but it’s typically a bigger issue for fly-ball pitchers. If Stripling is striking batters out and inducing ground balls, the ballpark won’t really come into play. This is certainly an exploitable matchup, as the Phillies’ projected lineup owns a 26% strikeout rate against right-handed pitching.
Quick Breakdown: Stripling is one of the top tournament plays of the slate, but for cash games, it makes sense to pay up for deGrom.
| Zach Eflin | |||||||||||
 | FanDuel | DraftKings | FantasyDraft | ||||||||
| Salary: | $9,400 | Salary: | $9,300 | Salary: | $17,600 | ||||||
| Salary Rank: | 5 of 26 | Salary Rank: | 7 of 26 | Salary Rank: | 7 of 26 | ||||||
| Stats | Starts | SIERA | ERA | K% | BB% | GB% | HC% | SC% | aFV | SwS% | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2017 | 11 | 5.08 | 6.16 | 12.5% | 4.3% | 44.1% | 33.3% | 16.7% | 92.7 | 7.3% | |
| 2018 | 12 | 3.67 | 3.15 | 24.0% | 5.0% | 37.2% | 26.0% | 23.0% | 94.3 | 10.7% | |
| L14 | 1 | 3.83 | 5.40 | 20.0% | 0.0% | 37.5% | 31.3% | 18.8% | 94.5 | 9.5% | |
I expect the Dodgers to be a popular stack in tournaments tonight thanks to a matchup against Eflin in a home run-friendly ballpark. While there are certainly some appealing aspects here, I wouldn’t call a matchup against Eflin a favorable one. In 12 starts this season, he has a 3.67 SIERA with a 24% strikeout rate and a 23% soft contact rate. He’s been tough on right-handed hitters (holding them to a .261 xwOBA) and projects to have the platoon advantage tonight. While I’m not trying to make a case to play Eflin, I’m trying to make a case to limit exposure to the Dodgers’ offense.
Quick Breakdown: Eflin is not a pitcher on my radar, but unlike most, I don’t expect him to get shelled in this matchup.
Batter Grind Down
LA Dodgers
The Dodgers see a ballpark boost playing in Philadelphia and they have one of the most talented offenses in baseball (especially with Manny Machado in the mix). However, a matchup against Zach Eflin isn’t as good as it may seem. Not many have noticed that he’s actually pitched very well this season. He’s been especially tough on right-handed hitters. Even against lefties, he has held them to a 26% hard contact rate. That does come with a .331 xwOBA and a 31% ground ball rate, so there is some home run upside for the left-handed bats of Joc Pederson, Max Muncy, Yasmani Grandal, and Cody Bellinger.
Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)
| # | Player | Bats | xwOBA | aEV | ISO | HC% | BB% | K% | GB% | FD Pos. | FD Sal. | DK Pos. | DK Sal. | FDRFT Pos. | FDRFT Sal. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Joc Pederson | LEFT | 0.379 | 91.5 | 0.302 | 44.2% | 11.7% | 15.6% | 38.4% | OF | $3,000 | OF | $4,000 | CF | $7,400 |
| 2 | Manny Machado | RIGHT | 0.396 | 92.3 | 0.259 | 37.0% | 11.3% | 14.5% | 38.7% | SS | $4,200 | SS | $4,600 | 3B | $9,200 |
| 3 | Matt Kemp | RIGHT | 0.366 | 89.4 | 0.172 | 41.1% | 5.5% | 22.3% | 40.5% | OF | $3,400 | OF | $3,800 | LF | $7,400 |
| 4 | Max Muncy | LEFT | 0.429 | 91.7 | 0.328 | 45.5% | 18.5% | 25.0% | 35.8% | 3B | $3,700 | 1B/3B | $4,500 | IF/OF | $9,400 |
| 5 | Yasmani Grandal | SWITCH | 0.393 | 89.8 | 0.245 | 40.6% | 11.5% | 19.1% | 39.4% | C | $3,100 | C | $4,100 | C | $8,000 |
| 6 | Chris Taylor | RIGHT | 0.326 | 88.3 | 0.184 | 35.2% | 7.2% | 31.3% | 32.3% | OF | $3,400 | OF/SS | $4,000 | IF/OF | $7,600 |
| 7 | Cody Bellinger | LEFT | 0.346 | 90.4 | 0.245 | 38.2% | 10.2% | 22.6% | 41.2% | 1B | $3,500 | 1B/OF | $3,900 | 1B | $7,800 |
| 8 | Kike Hernandez | RIGHT | 0.343 | 87.3 | 0.279 | 31.7% | 11.3% | 20.7% | 31.3% | OF | $3,300 | OF/SS | $3,300 | IF/OF | $6,700 |
| 9 | Ross Stripling | RIGHT | 0.140 | 76.5 | 0.000 | 9.1% | 0.0% | 31.3% | 77.8% | P | $9,600 | P | $10,200 | P | $19,900 |
| Team Averages | 0.346 | 88.6 | 0.224 | 35.8% | 9.7% | 22.5% | 41.7% |
Elite Plays – Joc Pederson, Max Muncy (GPP)
Secondary Plays – Max Muncy (Cash), Yasmani Grandal, Cody Bellinger
Stackability – ORANGE / YELLOW
Philadelphia
The Phillies have one of the worst matchups of the slate. The sample size with Ross Stripling is big enough (14 starts this season) that we have no choice but to believe in his numbers. He’s not just a flash in the pan like many pitchers in baseball that have a few good outings, but can’t sustain it over the course of a full season. Stripling has an elite strikeout rate (28%) and he has held both left and right-handed hitters under a .265 xwOBA this season. The one positive is that Rhys Hoskins and Carlos Santana are underpriced on DraftKings. Unfortunately, that’s not enough of a reason to play them outside of large-field GPPs.
Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)
| # | Player | Bats | xwOBA | aEV | ISO | HC% | BB% | K% | GB% | FD Pos. | FD Sal. | DK Pos. | DK Sal. | FDRFT Pos. | FDRFT Sal. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Cesar Hernandez | SWITCH | 0.323 | 83.2 | 0.132 | 24.5% | 13.8% | 21.6% | 42.6% | 2B | $3,500 | 2B | $4,100 | 2B | $8,500 |
| 2 | Rhys Hoskins | RIGHT | 0.374 | 88.6 | 0.242 | 35.0% | 11.2% | 26.4% | 27.8% | OF | $3,800 | OF | $3,900 | IF/OF | $7,600 |
| 3 | Odubel Herrera | LEFT | 0.304 | 86.8 | 0.196 | 27.2% | 6.7% | 21.3% | 41.4% | OF | $3,600 | OF | $4,100 | IF/OF | $8,400 |
| 4 | Carlos Santana | SWITCH | 0.383 | 89.0 | 0.184 | 35.4% | 21.3% | 14.8% | 37.6% | 1B | $3,400 | 1B | $3,600 | 1B | $7,300 |
| 5 | Nick Williams | LEFT | 0.378 | 89.4 | 0.210 | 35.4% | 9.6% | 23.3% | 46.5% | OF | $2,700 | OF | $3,600 | RF | $7,600 |
| 6 | Maikel Franco | RIGHT | 0.326 | 88.8 | 0.182 | 24.2% | 5.8% | 14.3% | 54.5% | 3B | $3,000 | 3B | $3,600 | 3B | $7,300 |
| 7 | Scott Kingery | RIGHT | 0.308 | 85.5 | 0.107 | 25.0% | 5.0% | 22.5% | 39.5% | SS | $2,700 | SS | $3,400 | SS | $6,500 |
| 8 | Zach Eflin | RIGHT | 0.149 | 79.9 | 0.158 | 22.2% | 0.0% | 57.1% | 85.7% | P | $9,400 | P | $9,300 | P | $17,600 |
| 9 | Andrew Knapp | SWITCH | 0.338 | 88.0 | 0.161 | 37.5% | 11.0% | 32.3% | 33.8% | C | $2,500 | C | $3,500 | C | $6,600 |
| Team Averages | 0.320 | 86.6 | 0.175 | 29.6% | 9.4% | 26.0% | 45.5% |
Elite Plays – None
Secondary Plays – Rhys Hoskins (DK GPP), Carlos Santana (DK GPP)
Stackability – ORANGE
Minnesota at Toronto – 7:07 PM ET
| Minnesota | Toronto | ||||||||||||||
 | Adalberto Mejia |  | Luis Santos | ||||||||||||
| LEFT | RIGHT | ||||||||||||||
| Vegas Moneyline | Vegas Over/Under | ||||||||||||||
| TOR-118 | 9.5 | ||||||||||||||
| Stats | wOBA | xwOBA | HC% | aEV | K% | GB% | Stats | wOBA | xwOBA | HC% | aEV | K% | GB% | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SP vs. Left (2016-17) | 0.352 | 0.473 | 40.0% | 86.7 | 0.0% | 40.0% | SP vs. Left (2016-17) | 0.472 | 0.356 | 28.6% | 88.8 | 20.0% | 28.6% | ||
| SP vs. Right (2016-17) | 0.400 | 0.390 | 9.1% | 81.1 | 6.7% | 30.0% | SP vs. Right (2016-17) | 0.332 | 0.344 | 20.0% | 86.5 | 29.4% | 20.0% | ||
Pitcher Grind Down
| Adalberto Mejia | |||||||||||
 | FanDuel | DraftKings | FantasyDraft | ||||||||
| Salary: | $5,500 | Salary: | $5,600 | Salary: | $10,800 | ||||||
| Salary Rank: | 23 of 26 | Salary Rank: | 18 of 26 | Salary Rank: | 18 of 26 | ||||||
| Stats | Starts | SIERA | ERA | K% | BB% | GB% | HC% | SC% | aFV | SwS% | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2017 | 21 | 4.95 | 4.50 | 19.2% | 9.9% | 39.3% | 31.7% | 19.1% | 92.5 | 10.6% | |
| 2018 | 1 | 7.39 | 9.00 | 5.0% | 15.0% | 33.3% | 18.8% | 37.5% | 92.6 | 8.9% | |
We haven’t seen Mejia much this season. Tonight will mark his second start of the year. While his first stint in the majors wasn’t great, he’s the team’s fifth ranked prospect and he’s pitched well in the minors. In 11 Triple-A starts this season, he posted a 3.00 FIP with a strikeout rate of 24% and a walk rate of 8%. He’s certainly worth monitoring moving forward, as he may have some fantasy appeal in favorable matchups. He’s an easy fade tonight against the Blue Jays, whose projected lineup has a .332 xwOBA against left-handed pitching this season.
Quick Breakdown: As an underdog on the road in a game that features a total of 9.5 runs, Mejia can be avoided in all formats.
| Luis Santos | |||||||||||
 | FanDuel | DraftKings | FantasyDraft | ||||||||
| Salary: | $5,500 | Salary: | $4,600 | Salary: | $9,000 | ||||||
| Salary Rank: | 23 of 26 | Salary Rank: | 24 of 26 | Salary Rank: | 24 of 26 | ||||||
| Stats | Starts | SIERA | ERA | K% | BB% | GB% | HC% | SC% | aFV | SwS% | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2017 | 0 | 3.79 | 2.70 | 23.5% | 5.9% | 33.3% | 25.0% | 27.1% | 92.7 | 14.2% | |
| 2018 | 0 | 3.99 | 7.88 | 24.3% | 10.8% | 25.0% | 25.0% | 16.7% | 93.9 | 12.8% | |
| L14 | 0 | 2.59 | 3.00 | 27.3% | 0.0% | 37.5% | 25.0% | 0.0% | 93.5 | 15.4% | |
Santos will be making his first career start, but this is nothing more than a bullpen game for the Blue Jays. Santos hasn’t pitched more than two innings in any of his five relief appearances, so even if he pitches well tonight, he won’t be eligible for the win. This immediately takes him out of consideration in all formats, as he has a low floor and a low ceiling. For cash games, we like to use players with high floors. For tournaments, we like to use players with high ceilings. And in a perfect world, the player will have both.
Quick Breakdown: Avoid Santos in all formats.
Batter Grind Down
Minnesota
The Twins will face a number of different relievers tonight against the Blue Jays. While Luis Santos is technically getting the start, each hitter will likely face him a maximum of one time. These are situations that I tend to avoid in cash games, as there are too many unknowns to really feel good about any of the Twins’ hitters. For tournaments, there are a number of intriguing plays. Eddie Rosario, Brian Dozier, and Logan Morrison all provide upside and should be low-owned. The fact that the game is being played in Toronto gives a slight boost to the Twins’ offense as a whole.
Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)
| # | Player | Bats | xwOBA | aEV | ISO | HC% | BB% | K% | GB% | FD Pos. | FD Sal. | DK Pos. | DK Sal. | FDRFT Pos. | FDRFT Sal. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Joe Mauer | LEFT | 0.404 | 90.4 | 0.092 | 41.4% | 12.2% | 11.7% | 49.1% | 1B | $3,000 | 1B | $4,100 | 1B | $8,200 |
| 2 | Eddie Rosario | LEFT | 0.356 | 89.8 | 0.250 | 39.7% | 7.1% | 16.4% | 29.6% | OF | $3,800 | OF | $5,100 | LF | $9,800 |
| 3 | Brian Dozier | RIGHT | 0.306 | 86.6 | 0.206 | 38.2% | 9.0% | 20.1% | 37.9% | 2B | $3,800 | 2B | $4,500 | 2B | $9,300 |
| 4 | Eduardo Escobar | SWITCH | 0.355 | 86.4 | 0.285 | 40.0% | 6.7% | 23.2% | 27.6% | 3B | $3,400 | 3B/SS | $4,200 | 3B | $8,300 |
| 5 | Logan Morrison | LEFT | 0.374 | 89.5 | 0.186 | 40.0% | 10.5% | 19.7% | 28.1% | 1B | $3,000 | 1B | $3,800 | 1B | $7,400 |
| 6 | Jorge Polanco | SWITCH | 0.316 | 84.5 | 0.154 | 26.9% | 15.2% | 28.3% | 32.0% | SS | $3,200 | SS | $3,900 | SS | $7,600 |
| 7 | Max Kepler | LEFT | 0.326 | 89.9 | 0.162 | 38.4% | 12.0% | 13.9% | 39.4% | OF | $2,800 | OF | $3,900 | RF | $7,800 |
| 8 | Jake Cave | LEFT | 0.385 | 90.5 | 0.221 | 42.0% | 5.6% | 25.0% | 46.0% | OF | $2,600 | OF | $3,300 | CF | $6,700 |
| 9 | Mitch Garver | RIGHT | 0.342 | 89.4 | 0.169 | 39.5% | 9.7% | 24.6% | 40.0% | C | $2,300 | C | $3,500 | C | $6,500 |
| Team Averages | 0.352 | 88.6 | 0.192 | 38.5% | 9.8% | 20.3% | 36.6% |
Elite Plays – Eddie Rosario (GPP), Brian Dozier (GPP), Logan Morrison (GPP)
Secondary Plays – Eddie Rosario (Cash), Brian Dozier (Cash), Logan Morrison (Cash)
Stackability – YELLOW
Toronto
Adalberto Mejia has pitched fairly well in the minors, but how many times have we seen a pitcher that just can’t make it at the next level. I’m not saying that Mejia doesn’t have what it takes to become a major league starter, but from what we’ve seen thus far, I’d rather target hitters against him at this point. In his 22 career starts, he has allowed a .364 wOBA to lefties and a .351 wOBA to righties. The Blue Jays play in a hitter-friendly ballpark and have the eighth highest team wOBA at home. I love the value that Lourdes Gurriel, Yangervis Solarte, and Kendrys Morales provide at their respective positions. If you stack those three, you basically have your pick of the litter at pitcher. Teoscar Hernandez is also viable, as he owns a team-high .373 xwOBA against southpaws this season.
Projected Lineup (Splits vs. LH Pitching)
| # | Player | Bats | xwOBA | aEV | ISO | HC% | BB% | K% | GB% | FD Pos. | FD Sal. | DK Pos. | DK Sal. | FDRFT Pos. | FDRFT Sal. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Lourdes Gurriel | RIGHT | 0.346 | 87.9 | 0.029 | 29.6% | 2.9% | 20.0% | 55.6% | 2B | $2,500 | 2B/SS | $3,700 | 2B | $7,600 |
| 2 | Yangervis Solarte | SWITCH | 0.336 | 87.5 | 0.242 | 32.5% | 5.8% | 10.9% | 39.5% | 3B | $2,700 | 2B/3B | $3,400 | 3B | $6,400 |
| 3 | Teoscar Hernandez | RIGHT | 0.373 | 91.7 | 0.316 | 32.4% | 7.5% | 28.3% | 39.7% | OF | $3,400 | OF | $4,300 | LF | $8,400 |
| 4 | Justin Smoak | SWITCH | 0.313 | 87.8 | 0.167 | 25.9% | 10.5% | 22.6% | 48.1% | 1B | $3,700 | 1B | $4,600 | 1B | $9,100 |
| 5 | Kendrys Morales | SWITCH | 0.369 | 93.7 | 0.148 | 41.9% | 9.7% | 23.7% | 46.8% | 1B | $2,600 | 1B | $3,900 | 1B | $7,300 |
| 6 | Russell Martin | RIGHT | 0.338 | 91.3 | 0.019 | 31.6% | 16.9% | 23.1% | 55.3% | C | $2,300 | C | $3,200 | C | $6,700 |
| 7 | Randal Grichuk | RIGHT | 0.333 | 91.2 | 0.149 | 28.6% | 6.8% | 25.7% | 38.8% | OF | $3,000 | OF | $3,900 | RF | $7,400 |
| 8 | Dwight Smith | LEFT | 0.308 | 75.9 | 0.167 | 20.0% | 12.5% | 12.5% | 25.0% | OF | $2,200 | OF | $3,800 | LF | $7,500 |
| 9 | Aledmys Diaz | RIGHT | 0.270 | 87.6 | 0.066 | 29.2% | 6.1% | 19.7% | 41.7% | SS | $2,500 | SS | $3,600 | SS | $7,200 |
| Team Averages | 0.332 | 88.3 | 0.145 | 30.2% | 8.7% | 20.7% | 43.4% |
Elite Plays – Lourdes Gurriel, Yangervis Solarte, Teoscar Hernandez, Kendrys Morales
Secondary Plays – Justin Smoak, Russell Martin
Stackability – YELLOW / GREEN
Atlanta at Miami – 7:10 PM ET
| Atlanta | Miami | ||||||||||||||
 | Sean Newcomb |  | Jose Urena | ||||||||||||
| LEFT | RIGHT | ||||||||||||||
| Vegas Moneyline | Vegas Over/Under | ||||||||||||||
| ATL-104 | 8.0 | ||||||||||||||
| Stats | wOBA | xwOBA | HC% | aEV | K% | GB% | Stats | wOBA | xwOBA | HC% | aEV | K% | GB% | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SP vs. Left (2016-17) | 0.319 | 0.356 | 37.3% | 89.9 | 22.5% | 49.0% | SP vs. Left (2016-17) | 0.324 | 0.352 | 44.2% | 89.0 | 16.8% | 51.2% | ||
| SP vs. Right (2016-17) | 0.286 | 0.288 | 30.7% | 86.0 | 22.1% | 45.5% | SP vs. Right (2016-17) | 0.287 | 0.291 | 38.4% | 86.7 | 23.0% | 55.4% | ||
Pitcher Grind Down
| Sean Newcomb | |||||||||||
 | FanDuel | DraftKings | FantasyDraft | ||||||||
| Salary: | $7,100 | Salary: | $8,200 | Salary: | $16,100 | ||||||
| Salary Rank: | 12 of 26 | Salary Rank: | 8 of 26 | Salary Rank: | 9 of 26 | ||||||
| Stats | Starts | SIERA | ERA | K% | BB% | GB% | HC% | SC% | aFV | SwS% | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2017 | 19 | 4.71 | 4.32 | 23.7% | 12.5% | 43.8% | 27.0% | 17.5% | 93.7 | 11.2% | |
| 2018 | 19 | 4.61 | 3.51 | 22.2% | 11.9% | 46.2% | 31.8% | 23.2% | 92.8 | 9.9% | |
| L14 | 1 | 6.36 | 4.76 | 8.3% | 12.5% | 47.4% | 21.1% | 26.3% | 93.2 | 2.0% | |
Newcomb was a popular target of mine early in the season, but his production has tailed off over the last month or two. In 19 starts overall, he owns a 4.61 SIERA with a walk rate of 12%. There are parts of his skill set that are appealing (22% k-rate and a 23% soft contact rate), but there are plenty of red flags as well. While I wouldn’t trust him in a cash game setting, he is certainly worth a look in tournaments thanks to a matchup against the Marlins in this pitcher-friendly ballpark. Newcomb is a reverse-splits pitcher (holding righties to a .288 xwOBA) and he’s projected to face eight right-handed batters tonight.
Quick Breakdown: Newcomb is an excellent tournament play, but a little too volatile to trust in cash games.
| Jose Urena | |||||||||||
 | FanDuel | DraftKings | FantasyDraft | ||||||||
| Salary: | $6,800 | Salary: | $6,500 | Salary: | $12,700 | ||||||
| Salary Rank: | 13 of 26 | Salary Rank: | 16 of 26 | Salary Rank: | 16 of 26 | ||||||
| Stats | Starts | SIERA | ERA | K% | BB% | GB% | HC% | SC% | aFV | SwS% | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2017 | 28 | 5.19 | 3.82 | 15.6% | 8.8% | 43.1% | 31.8% | 18.4% | 95.5 | 8.2% | |
| 2018 | 19 | 3.93 | 4.39 | 19.9% | 6.3% | 53.1% | 41.5% | 15.2% | 95.7 | 8.8% | |
| L14 | 2 | 4.70 | 6.52 | 18.6% | 11.6% | 55.2% | 36.7% | 13.3% | 95.5 | 7.0% | |
Urena has improved this season, but is still a below-average major league pitcher. In 19 starts, he has a 3.93 SIERA with a strikeout rate of 20% and a hard contact rate of 42%. For him to be viable in DFS, he needs to be pitching in a good ballpark (Marlins Park certainly counts) and facing a right-handed heavy offense (he does not check this box tonight). The Braves are projected to have six lefties in their lineup tonight and two of them (Freddie Freeman and Nick Markakis) have mashed right-handed pitching this season.
Quick Breakdown: With so many options available tonight, Urena is one of the easiest ones to cross off our list.
Batter Grind Down
Atlanta
The Braves are playing in a pitcher-friendly ballpark, but have one of the simplest matchups to break down in this slate. As alluded to above, Jose Urena is much better against right-handed hitters (.291 xwOBA allowed) than he is against left-handed ones (.352 xwOBA allowed with a 44% hard contact rate). There are a number of offenses that I would target before the Braves tonight, but there are still some intriguing one-off targets in this lineup. Ozzie Albies, Freddie Freeman, and Nick Markakis are all viable low-owned GPP options.
Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)
| # | Player | Bats | xwOBA | aEV | ISO | HC% | BB% | K% | GB% | FD Pos. | FD Sal. | DK Pos. | DK Sal. | FDRFT Pos. | FDRFT Sal. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Ronald Acuna | RIGHT | 0.353 | 91.9 | 0.225 | 42.5% | 5.8% | 30.9% | 42.5% | OF | $3,200 | OF | $4,400 | LF | $8,600 |
| 2 | Ozzie Albies | SWITCH | 0.320 | 85.6 | 0.234 | 36.0% | 4.5% | 17.4% | 36.0% | 2B | $4,100 | 2B | $5,300 | 2B | $9,500 |
| 3 | Freddie Freeman | LEFT | 0.416 | 89.9 | 0.183 | 45.3% | 13.7% | 16.7% | 37.4% | 1B | $4,200 | 1B | $5,100 | 1B | $9,600 |
| 4 | Nick Markakis | LEFT | 0.401 | 91.3 | 0.147 | 42.4% | 10.5% | 8.7% | 42.4% | OF | $3,600 | OF | $4,500 | RF | $9,400 |
| 5 | Kurt Suzuki | RIGHT | 0.333 | 86.1 | 0.150 | 36.0% | 5.8% | 9.5% | 32.7% | C | $2,800 | C | $3,500 | C | $6,300 |
| 6 | Johan Camargo | SWITCH | 0.322 | 89.2 | 0.145 | 40.2% | 14.2% | 20.3% | 51.2% | 3B | $2,900 | 3B/SS | $3,600 | 3B | $7,600 |
| 7 | Ender Inciarte | LEFT | 0.286 | 82.9 | 0.120 | 25.9% | 8.2% | 12.5% | 47.6% | OF | $2,900 | OF | $4,000 | CF | $7,400 |
| 8 | Dansby Swanson | RIGHT | 0.288 | 87.6 | 0.136 | 32.1% | 7.2% | 23.0% | 43.1% | SS | $2,800 | SS | $3,600 | SS | $7,400 |
| 9 | Sean Newcomb | LEFT | 0.054 | 66.4 | 0.040 | 8.3% | 0.0% | 58.6% | 87.5% | P | $7,100 | P | $8,200 | P | $16,100 |
| Team Averages | 0.308 | 85.7 | 0.153 | 34.3% | 7.8% | 22.0% | 46.7% |
Elite Plays – None
Secondary Plays – Ozzie Albies, Freddie Freeman, Nick Markakis
Stackability – ORANGE / YELLOW
Miami
The Marlins have struggled against left-handed pitching all season. Their projected lineup for tonight’s game has a .297 xwOBA and a 24% strikeout rate against lefties and that’s not even the worst part. The lineup’s average ISO is 0.077, which is almost unbelievable. To make matters worse, Sean Newcomb is a reverse-splits pitcher that has held right-handed hitters to a .288 xwOBA and a 31% hard contact rate. The more I dive into the numbers, the more I like Newcomb as a tournament play tonight.
Projected Lineup (Splits vs. LH Pitching)
| # | Player | Bats | xwOBA | aEV | ISO | HC% | BB% | K% | GB% | FD Pos. | FD Sal. | DK Pos. | DK Sal. | FDRFT Pos. | FDRFT Sal. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Starlin Castro | RIGHT | 0.345 | 90.1 | 0.103 | 43.6% | 10.9% | 18.2% | 55.1% | 2B | $3,300 | 2B | $4,000 | 2B | $7,200 |
| 2 | Brian Anderson | RIGHT | 0.410 | 91.4 | 0.183 | 45.4% | 14.0% | 14.9% | 48.8% | OF | $3,300 | 3B/OF | $4,100 | IF/OF | $8,300 |
| 3 | J.T. Realmuto | RIGHT | 0.321 | 86.4 | 0.141 | 37.3% | 3.9% | 26.3% | 43.1% | C | $3,300 | C | $4,800 | C | $8,800 |
| 4 | Martin Prado | RIGHT | 0.349 | 87.8 | 0.037 | 34.6% | 12.9% | 3.2% | 42.3% | 3B | $2,300 | 3B | $3,600 | 3B | $7,500 |
| 5 | Justin Bour | LEFT | 0.300 | 85.3 | 0.056 | 30.8% | 15.6% | 23.4% | 56.4% | 1B | $3,000 | 1B | $3,700 | 1B | $7,500 |
| 6 | Garrett Cooper | RIGHT | 0.301 | 89.1 | 0.000 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 28.6% | 60.0% | OF | $2,200 | 1B/OF | $3,500 | 1B | $6,500 |
| 7 | Miguel Rojas | RIGHT | 0.307 | 84.8 | 0.095 | 25.3% | 8.5% | 10.6% | 29.7% | 3B | $2,300 | 3B/SS | $3,300 | SS | $6,600 |
| 8 | Cameron Maybin | RIGHT | 0.302 | 84.9 | 0.074 | 30.4% | 7.8% | 15.5% | 44.9% | OF | $2,800 | OF | $3,900 | CF | $7,700 |
| 9 | Jose Urena | RIGHT | 0.040 | 41.5 | 0.000 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 73.3% | 0.0% | P | $6,800 | P | $6,500 | P | $12,700 |
| Team Averages | 0.297 | 82.4 | 0.077 | 27.5% | 8.2% | 23.8% | 42.3% |
Elite Plays – None
Secondary Plays – None
Stackability – RED
NY Yankees at Tampa Bay – 7:10 PM ET
| NY Yankees | Tampa Bay | ||||||||||||||
 | Luis Severino |  | Hunter Wood | ||||||||||||
| RIGHT | RIGHT | ||||||||||||||
| Vegas Moneyline | Vegas Over/Under | ||||||||||||||
| NYY-220 | 7.5 | ||||||||||||||
| Stats | wOBA | xwOBA | HC% | aEV | K% | GB% | Stats | wOBA | xwOBA | HC% | aEV | K% | GB% | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SP vs. Left (2016-17) | 0.255 | 0.304 | 36.4% | 88.2 | 29.4% | 43.5% | SP vs. Left (2016-17) | 0.341 | 0.247 | 35.3% | 80.9 | 27.6% | 43.8% | ||
| SP vs. Right (2016-17) | 0.258 | 0.295 | 31.9% | 87.3 | 28.1% | 44.2% | SP vs. Right (2016-17) | 0.248 | 0.314 | 40.9% | 84.6 | 14.3% | 50.0% | ||
Pitcher Grind Down
| Luis Severino | |||||||||||
 | FanDuel | DraftKings | FantasyDraft | ||||||||
| Salary: | $11,400 | Salary: | $13,200 | Salary: | $25,600 | ||||||
| Salary Rank: | 2 of 26 | Salary Rank: | 1 of 26 | Salary Rank: | 1 of 26 | ||||||
| Stats | Starts | SIERA | ERA | K% | BB% | GB% | HC% | SC% | aFV | SwS% | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2017 | 31 | 3.25 | 2.98 | 29.4% | 6.5% | 50.6% | 28.5% | 19.4% | 97.6 | 13.0% | |
| 2018 | 20 | 3.22 | 2.31 | 28.7% | 6.4% | 43.9% | 33.8% | 21.1% | 97.7 | 12.2% | |
| L14 | 1 | 6.24 | 7.20 | 4.6% | 4.6% | 25.0% | 55.0% | 10.0% | 96.9 | 3.2% | |
Severino struggled in his first start after the All-Star break, but there is no cause for concern. He’s been one of the best pitchers in baseball in each of the last two seasons. He has an elite strikeout rate (29%), a low walk rate (6%), and can pitch deep into games. He should have no problem getting back on track tonight against the Rays, whose projected lineup has a .308 xwOBA, a .127 ISO, and a 21% strikeout rate against right-handed pitching. Severino is a massive favorite and actually sees a ballpark boost playing in the pitcher-friendly Tropicana Field. The only question is whether we want to play him over Jacob deGrom. If we take price and ownership out of the equation, I’m siding with deGrom at home against the Padres.
Quick Breakdown: Severino is an elite play in all formats, I just prefer deGrom over him in a better matchup.
| Hunter Wood | |||||||||||
 | FanDuel | DraftKings | FantasyDraft | ||||||||
| Salary: | $5,500 | Salary: | $4,000 | Salary: | $8,000 | ||||||
| Salary Rank: | 23 of 26 | Salary Rank: | 25 of 26 | Salary Rank: | 25 of 26 | ||||||
| Stats | Starts | SIERA | ERA | K% | BB% | GB% | HC% | SC% | aFV | SwS% | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2017 | 0 | 13.42 | 0.00 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 100.0% | 90.0 | 0.0% | |
| 2018 | 1 | 4.19 | 2.70 | 21.1% | 10.5% | 47.4% | 38.5% | 25.6% | 93.9 | 13.4% | |
| L14 | 1 | 3.79 | 2.57 | 29.0% | 12.9% | 29.4% | 33.3% | 38.9% | 95.1 | 17.9% | |
Wood will technically draw another start, but we have another Rays bullpen game on our hands. Wood will likely be held under 40 pitches, which immediately takes him out of consideration for both cash games and tournaments. The fact that he’s facing the Yankees is the final nail in the coffin, as their projected lineup has a .341 xwOBA and a .204 ISO against right-handed pitching.
Quick Breakdown: Avoid Wood in all formats.
Batter Grind Down
NY Yankees
The Yankees are playing in a pitcher-friendly ballpark and will face a number of different relievers tonight, but it’s not all bad news. This combination will help lower ownership in tournaments. In fact, I wouldn’t be surprised if all of the Yankees’ hitters came in at low ownership. While I won’t be employing a full stack, there are certainly viable plays here. Aaron Judge, Aaron Hicks, and Gary Sanchez all hit both left and right-handed pitching well, so we should like their chances regardless of which relievers they end up facing.
Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)
| # | Player | Bats | xwOBA | aEV | ISO | HC% | BB% | K% | GB% | FD Pos. | FD Sal. | DK Pos. | DK Sal. | FDRFT Pos. | FDRFT Sal. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Brett Gardner | LEFT | 0.309 | 87.2 | 0.166 | 29.6% | 12.0% | 14.4% | 51.0% | OF | $3,300 | OF | $4,700 | LF | $9,400 |
| 2 | Aaron Judge | RIGHT | 0.403 | 96.2 | 0.272 | 49.1% | 12.6% | 30.7% | 45.1% | OF | $4,400 | OF | $5,300 | RF | $9,500 |
| 3 | Didi Gregorius | LEFT | 0.349 | 88.6 | 0.253 | 39.1% | 8.7% | 11.9% | 34.8% | SS | $3,700 | SS | $4,900 | SS | $8,700 |
| 4 | Giancarlo Stanton | RIGHT | 0.306 | 91.8 | 0.184 | 33.9% | 7.9% | 33.2% | 52.8% | OF | $4,100 | OF | $5,000 | RF | $9,700 |
| 5 | Aaron Hicks | SWITCH | 0.350 | 88.6 | 0.189 | 38.5% | 13.7% | 19.2% | 45.1% | OF | $3,300 | OF | $4,200 | CF | $8,100 |
| 6 | Gary Sanchez | RIGHT | 0.337 | 89.7 | 0.215 | 36.2% | 9.4% | 25.6% | 43.8% | C | $3,200 | C | $4,200 | C | $8,400 |
| 7 | Greg Bird | LEFT | 0.327 | 88.9 | 0.267 | 39.5% | 8.5% | 27.7% | 37.0% | 1B | $3,300 | 1B | $4,200 | 1B | $8,500 |
| 8 | Miguel Andujar | RIGHT | 0.347 | 89.6 | 0.182 | 36.1% | 4.0% | 17.3% | 50.0% | 3B | $3,300 | 3B | $4,100 | 3B | $8,000 |
| 9 | Neil Walker | SWITCH | 0.343 | 88.1 | 0.106 | 36.9% | 10.4% | 22.0% | 40.0% | 2B | $2,400 | 1B/2B | $3,600 | 2B | $7,600 |
| Team Averages | 0.341 | 89.9 | 0.204 | 37.7% | 9.7% | 22.4% | 44.4% |
Elite Plays – Aaron Judge (GPP), Aaron Hicks (GPP), Gary Sanchez (GPP)
Secondary Plays – Didi Gregorius (GPP), Giancarlo Stanton (GPP)
Stackability – ORANGE / YELLOW
Tampa Bay
The Rays have no fantasy appeal in a matchup against Luis Severino. In addition to an elite strikeout rate, he has held both left and right-handed hitters under a .305 xwOBA this season. Tampa Bay has the lowest implied run total on the board, slightly below the Padres, who are facing Jacob deGrom in a pitcher-friendly ballpark.
Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)
| # | Player | Bats | xwOBA | aEV | ISO | HC% | BB% | K% | GB% | FD Pos. | FD Sal. | DK Pos. | DK Sal. | FDRFT Pos. | FDRFT Sal. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Kevin Kiermaier | LEFT | 0.250 | 85.8 | 0.081 | 33.8% | 8.9% | 28.6% | 53.0% | OF | $3,100 | OF | $3,700 | CF | $7,500 |
| 2 | Matt Duffy | RIGHT | 0.328 | 86.9 | 0.101 | 30.9% | 6.1% | 15.0% | 51.3% | 3B | $2,700 | 3B | $3,800 | 3B | $7,700 |
| 3 | Jake Bauers | LEFT | 0.370 | 90.7 | 0.243 | 44.3% | 15.0% | 22.0% | 38.0% | 1B | $3,000 | 1B/OF | $4,100 | 1B | $8,400 |
| 4 | C.J. Cron | RIGHT | 0.349 | 87.2 | 0.220 | 36.1% | 6.1% | 24.9% | 43.3% | 1B | $3,300 | 1B | $4,200 | 1B | $8,500 |
| 5 | Joey Wendle | LEFT | 0.308 | 89.7 | 0.121 | 35.7% | 5.5% | 20.6% | 47.4% | 2B | $2,900 | 2B | $3,900 | 2B | $7,400 |
| 6 | Daniel Robertson | RIGHT | 0.318 | 86.3 | 0.126 | 35.0% | 12.4% | 27.5% | 50.4% | 2B | $2,700 | 2B/SS | $3,500 | 2B | $6,600 |
| 7 | Mallex Smith | LEFT | 0.290 | 84.4 | 0.127 | 28.5% | 8.8% | 18.5% | 44.6% | OF | $2,500 | OF | $4,000 | CF | $7,700 |
| 8 | Adeiny Hechavarria | RIGHT | 0.300 | 85.7 | 0.093 | 36.2% | 4.3% | 17.3% | 38.4% | SS | $2,400 | SS | $3,000 | SS | $5,800 |
| 9 | Jesus Sucre | RIGHT | 0.257 | 83.7 | 0.027 | 25.0% | 4.9% | 12.2% | 37.9% | C | $2,100 | C | $2,500 | C | $4,700 |
| Team Averages | 0.308 | 86.7 | 0.127 | 33.9% | 8.0% | 20.7% | 44.9% |
Elite Plays – None
Secondary Plays – None
Stackability – RED
Note: Unless noted, all statistics in the Grind Down are from the 2018 season.