MLB Grind Down: Monday, June 27th

by Derek Farnsworth (Notorious) Last Updated 2016-06-28 03:51:49

The RotoGrinders MLB Grind Down will give you an in-depth analysis into the upcoming MLB schedule. This article will break down the numbers for every single game and give you analysis on which trends you can exploit. While matchups are a major factor in daily fantasy baseball, there are plenty of other factors to consider such as injuries, weather, and salaries.

The analysis should point you in the right direction, but it is still up to you to decipher the information and make your own selections. No sport has more variance than baseball. The best choice is not always the right choice but following the trends will win you money over time.

Note: As always, if you want to try a new DFS site, be sure to click through a RotoGrinders link and use our DraftKings promo code and FanDuel promo code to receive the best perks in the industry.

LA Dodgers at Pittsburgh – 12:35 PM ET

LA Dodgers					Pittsburgh
			Scott Kazmir					Francisco Liriano
			LEFT					LEFT
			Vegas Moneyline					Vegas Over/Under
			PIT -106					8.5
Stats	wOBA	HR All.	K%	BB%	Stats	wOBA	HR All.	K%	BB%
SP vs. Left	0.316	11	15.9%	6.0%	SP vs. Left	0.284	6	25.4%	9.4%
SP vs. Right	0.301	23	23.6%	8.9%	SP vs. Right	0.310	23	25.1%	10.8%

Pitcher Grind Down

Scott Kazmir
					FanDuel			DraftKings
					Salary:		$8,600	Salary:
					FPPG:		29.7	FPPG:
					Pitcher Rating:		63.9	Pitcher Rank:		12
Statistics	Starts	PitchPS	SIERA	ERA	K%	BB%	SS%	GB%	FB%	HH%
L30 Days	6	91.0	3.44	3.38	29.3%	9.0%	11.4%	39.2%	35.4%	24.7%
2016	15	95.6	3.98	4.52	24.1%	8.9%	10.4%	41.6%	37.2%	22.9%
2015	31	94.9	4.10	3.10	20.3%	7.7%	10.3%	42.9%	37.3%	25.7%

We only have one day game on the schedule, so if you are playing in the main slate – feel free to scroll down to the next game.

Kazmir will be on the mound for the Dodgers, as they take on the Pirates in PNC Park. Kazmir comes into the game in solid form, posting a 3.44 SIERA with a strikeout rate of 29.3% over the last month of play. While he has been a reverse splits pitcher over the last two seasons, the Pirates are going to be loaded up with right-handed hitters today. That always scares me for a left-handed pitcher that isn’t named Clayton Kershaw or Chris Sale. Kazmir is an easy fade here, as Vegas is expecting a fairly high scoring affair.

Francisco Liriano
					FanDuel			DraftKings
					Salary:		$8,500	Salary:
					FPPG:		25.9	FPPG:
					Pitcher Rating:		62.6	Pitcher Rank:		13
Statistics	Starts	PitchPS	SIERA	ERA	K%	BB%	SS%	GB%	FB%	HH%
L30 Days	6	96.2	5.41	5.97	19.7%	15.8%	9.5%	46.8%	31.9%	35.4%
2016	14	96.9	4.74	5.17	22.2%	13.6%	10.6%	50.2%	31.5%	35.5%
2015	31	96.2	3.38	3.38	26.5%	9.1%	14.3%	51.2%	26.3%	24.3%

If you were to take the name out and just compare his numbers over the last two seasons, you would think that you were looking at two completely different pitchers. In 14 starts this season, Liriano has a 4.74 SIERA with a strikeout rate of 22.2% and a walk rate of 13.6%. His command has been off all season and he isn’t getting into favorable counts, so hitters aren’t forced to chase pitches out of the strike zone. Liriano should continue to be avoided until he can prove that he is back to his 2015 form.

Batter Grind Down

LA Dodgers

The Dodgers are one of the worst offenses in baseball against left-handed pitching, but they draw a favorable matchup today against Francisco Liriano. If you are playing in the all-day slate, it never hurts to load up on hitters from the early game when you are playing on an early lock site. It can pay off to take players that you know are in a lineup, rather than taking a chance and trying to predict lineups. On the season, Liriano has allowed a .365 wOBA to right-handed hitters.

• Dodgers Offense (2016)
  Team wOBA vs. LHP — 0.288 (28 of 30)
  Team ISO vs. LHP — 0.146 (21 of 30)
  Team K% vs. LHP — 20.6% (11 of 30)
  Runs Per Game — 4.18 (18 of 30)
  Projected Run Total — 4.21 (12 of 22)

Projected Lineup

Elite Plays – Kike Hernandez, Justin Turner, Trayce Thompson

Secondary Plays – Yasiel Puig, Howie Kendrick, Scott Van Slyke, A.J. Ellis

Stackability – Cash & GPP

Pittsburgh

The Pirates have a mediocre run projection today, as they square off against Scott Kazmir. While Kazmir comes into this start in great form, he has always struggled with consistency throughout his career. There are a number of viable options in this Pirates’ lineup. Josh Harrison, Andrew McCutchen, Jung-Ho Kang, and David Freese all owns a .335+ wOBA against left-handed pitching.

• Pirates Offense (2016)
  Team wOBA vs. LHP — 0.331 (8 of 30)
  Team ISO vs. LHP — 0.164 (16 of 30)
  Team K% vs. LHP — 25.0% (29 of 30)
  Runs Per Game — 4.57 (12 of 30)
  Projected Run Total — 4.29 (10 of 22)

Projected Lineup

Elite Plays – Andrew McCutchen, Jung-Ho Kang

Secondary Plays – Josh Harrison, David Freese

Stackability – GPP

NY Mets at Washington – 7:05 PM ET

NY Mets					Washington
			Noah Syndergaard					Joe Ross
			RIGHT					RIGHT
			Vegas Moneyline					Vegas Over/Under
			NYM -110					7.0
Stats	wOBA	HR All.	K%	BB%	Stats	wOBA	HR All.	K%	BB%
SP vs. Left	0.295	12	26.1%	5.4%	SP vs. Left	0.350	7	16.5%	10.3%
SP vs. Right	0.245	12	31.2%	3.6%	SP vs. Right	0.220	8	25.5%	3.9%

Pitcher Grind Down

Noah Syndergaard
					FanDuel			DraftKings
					Salary:		$10,800	Salary:		$12,200
					FPPG:		42.4	FPPG:		24.0
					Pitcher Rating:		91.0	Pitcher Rank:		2
Statistics	Starts	PitchPS	SIERA	ERA	K%	BB%	SS%	GB%	FB%	HH%
L30 Days	5	93.0	2.72	2.35	27.4%	2.4%	15.3%	50.6%	27.7%	29.9%
2016	14	97.0	2.44	2.08	30.8%	3.4%	15.0%	54.2%	26.0%	27.4%
2015	24	99.2	2.95	3.24	27.5%	5.1%	12.2%	46.5%	33.6%	24.6%

Syndergaard didn’t have his best outing against the Royals in his last start, but he managed to pitch out of some trouble in some key spots and eventually ended up with the win. He has been dominant this season, posting a 2.44 SIERA with a strikeout rate of 30.8% and a walk rate of 3.4%. He checks into tonight’s game as the second best pitching option on the board. While he has just as much upside as Jake Arrieta, the latter has a much better chance of picking up a win. Syndergaard is obviously still in play in all league formats, as he takes on the Nationals tonight.

Joe Ross
					FanDuel			DraftKings
					Salary:		$8,100	Salary:		$9,500
					FPPG:		26.3	FPPG:		13.8
					Pitcher Rating:		74.6	Pitcher Rank:		4
Statistics	Starts	PitchPS	SIERA	ERA	K%	BB%	SS%	GB%	FB%	HH%
L30 Days	6	99.0	3.88	3.62	22.3%	6.8%	12.1%	42.2%	31.4%	32.7%
2016	14	94.7	4.14	3.11	20.4%	7.3%	11.0%	43.8%	31.3%	28.9%
2015	13	88.7	3.66	3.64	22.0%	6.7%	11.9%	49.8%	33.8%	30.2%

Ross doesn’t have any elite numbers, but he has a 4.14 SIERA with a strikeout rate of 20.4% on the season. He draws an excellent matchup tonight against the Mets, who have been one of the worst offenses in baseball over the last month of play. On the season, New York is now ranked 18th in team wOBA and 25th in team K% against right-handed pitching. The only issue with Ross is potential run support. There could be little to none of that with Noah Syndergaard pitching opposite him.

Batter Grind Down

NY Mets

The Mets have been an easy offense to avoid recently. When Kelly Johnson and Matt Reynolds are batting at the top of the order (yesterday), you know their offense is reeling. They come into tonight’s game with the fourth lowest team total on the board. They draw a fairly difficult matchup against Joe Ross. The one potential statistic that is in their favor is that Ross has allowed a .350 wOBA to left-handed hitters over the last two seasons.

• Mets Offense (2016)
  Team wOBA vs. RHP — 0.311 (18 of 30)
  Team ISO vs. RHP — 0.184 (6 of 30)
  Team K% vs. RHP — 23.3% (25 of 30)
  Runs Per Game — 3.66 (28 of 30)
  Projected Run Total — 3.56 (19 of 22)

Projected Lineup

Elite Plays – NONE

Secondary Plays – Curtis Granderson, Asdrubal Cabrera

Stackability – NONE

Washington

The Nationals draw one of the worst possible matchups in all of fantasy baseball. Over the last two seasons, Noah Syndergaard has struck out close to 30% of the batters that he faced and he has held both left and right-handed hitters under a .295 wOBA. Could Bryce Harper hit a solo shot against him? Sure, but I’m not banking on it. I’ll be looking elsewhere for batters tonight.

• Nationals Offense (2016)
  Team wOBA vs. RHP — 0.312 (16 of 30)
  Team ISO vs. RHP — 0.164 (15 of 30)
  Team K% vs. RHP — 20.4% (14 of 30)
  Runs Per Game — 4.53 (13 of 30)
  Projected Run Total — 3.44 (20 of 22)

Projected Lineup

Elite Plays – NONE

Secondary Plays – NONE

Stackability – NONE

Texas at NY Yankees – 7:05 PM ET

Texas					NY Yankees
			Chi Chi Gonzalez					Ivan Nova
			RIGHT					RIGHT
			Vegas Moneyline					Vegas Over/Under
			NYY -125					9.5
Stats	wOBA	HR All.	K%	BB%	Stats	wOBA	HR All.	K%	BB%
SP vs. Left	0.295	1	10.0%	10.8%	SP vs. Left	0.373	14	10.9%	7.8%
SP vs. Right	0.272	5	11.3%	12.0%	SP vs. Right	0.327	11	19.4%	5.7%

Pitcher Grind Down

Chi Chi Gonzalez
					FanDuel			DraftKings
					Salary:		$6,700	Salary:		$4,700
					FPPG:		18.0	FPPG:		0.0
					Pitcher Rating:		21.6	Pitcher Rank:		22
Statistics	Starts	PitchPS	SIERA	ERA	K%	BB%	SS%	GB%	FB%	HH%
2015	10	104.8	5.59	3.90	10.7%	11.4%	6.8%	48.6%	31.1%	28.4%

Gonzalez has one of the best names in all of baseball. Unfortunately, sites don’t reward fantasy points for having a great name. Gonzalez is making his 11th career start, but his first of the 2016 season. In 2015, he posted a 5.99 SIERA with a walk rate that was higher than his strikeout rate. He comes into tonight’s game as an underdog with the over/under set at 9.5 runs. Let’s take a wait and see approach with Chi Chi.

Ivan Nova
					FanDuel			DraftKings
					Salary:		$6,900	Salary:		$5,400
					FPPG:		18.3	FPPG:		8.2
					Pitcher Rating:		43.6	Pitcher Rank:		17
Statistics	Starts	PitchPS	SIERA	ERA	K%	BB%	SS%	GB%	FB%	HH%
L30 Days	6	92.7	4.27	6.88	18.4%	6.3%	9.0%	45.7%	33.6%	35.9%
2016	9	106.3	3.93	5.18	15.7%	4.6%	8.6%	55.5%	26.6%	32.9%
2015	17	89.9	4.58	5.07	15.3%	8.0%	7.8%	49.0%	31.7%	32.3%

Nova’s statistics suggest an improvement should be looming. His SIERA is nearly a run and a half lower than his ERA on the season. However, unless he starts striking hitters out at a higher rate, he will continue to be an easy fade in DFS. A 15.7% strikeout rate is going to make up for many mistakes. It doesn’t help that he draws a difficult matchup tonight against the Rangers, who are ranked at or above the league average in team wOBA, team ISO, and team K% against right-handed pitching this season.

Batter Grind Down

Texas

The Rangers are an offense that was built for Yankee Stadium. They have a number of left-handed hitters that should be able to take advantage of the short porch in right field. Even though Ivan Nova has induced an elite ground ball rate, he has still allowed a .373 wOBA and 14 home runs to left-handed hitters over the last two seasons. I love all of the lefties in this lineup, even Prince Fielder, who seems to finally be breaking out of his prolonged slump.

• Rangers Offense (2016)
  Team wOBA vs. RHP — 0.314 (15 of 30)
  Team ISO vs. RHP — 0.166 (14 of 30)
  Team K% vs. RHP — 18.7% (5 of 30)
  Runs Per Game — 4.77 (9 of 30)
  Projected Run Total — 4.60 (6 of 22)

Projected Lineup

Elite Plays – Shin-Soo Choo, Nomar Mazara, Prince Fielder (FD)

Secondary Plays – Ian Desmond, Adrian Beltre, Prince Fielder (DK), Rougned Odor

Stackability – Cash & GPP

NY Yankees

The Yankees are still ranked below the major league average in team wOBA and team ISO against right-handed pitching this season, but they come into tonight’s game with the third highest team total on the board. Chi Chi Gonzalez is a low strikeout pitcher (even in the minors) that is making his first major league start of the season. Look for the Yankees to jump on him early.

• Yankees Offense (2016)
  Team wOBA vs. RHP — 0.307 (21 of 30)
  Team ISO vs. RHP — 0.151 (18 of 30)
  Team K% vs. RHP — 18.9% (6 of 30)
  Runs Per Game — 4.17 (19 of 30)
  Projected Run Total — 4.90 (3 of 22)

Projected Lineup

Elite Plays – Brett Gardner, Alex Rodriguez, Brian McCann

Secondary Plays – Jacoby Ellsbury, Carlos Beltran

Stackability – Cash & GPP

Boston at Tampa Bay – 7:10 PM ET

Boston					Tampa Bay
			Eduardo Rodriguez					Blake Snell
			LEFT					LEFT
			Vegas Moneyline					Vegas Over/Under
			BOS -110					8.0
Stats	wOBA	HR All.	K%	BB%	Stats	wOBA	HR All.	K%	BB%
SP vs. Left	0.336	7	19.6%	4.9%	SP vs. Left	0.269	0	19.2%	11.5%
SP vs. Right	0.312	13	17.9%	8.3%	SP vs. Right	0.318	0	16.3%	9.3%

Pitcher Grind Down

Eduardo Rodriguez
					FanDuel			DraftKings
					Salary:		$6,800	Salary:		$6,600
					FPPG:		18.4	FPPG:		8.1
					Pitcher Rating:		50.1	Pitcher Rank:		16
Statistics	Starts	PitchPS	SIERA	ERA	K%	BB%	SS%	GB%	FB%	HH%
L30 Days	5	93.2	5.22	6.41	16.1%	9.3%	7.7%	33.0%	47.7%	34.1%
2016	5	93.2	5.21	6.41	16.1%	9.3%	7.7%	33.0%	47.7%	34.1%
2015	21	95.7	4.16	3.85	18.8%	7.1%	7.8%	43.0%	33.4%	31.4%

Rodriguez has not gotten off to the start that he was hoping for this season. In five stars, he has a 5.21 SIERA with a strikeout rate of 16.1%. He has been an extreme fly-ball pitcher that has allowed a hard hit contact rate of 34.1%. He draws a difficult matchup tonight against the Rays, who are quietly ranked second in team wOBA and third in team ISO against left-handed pitching this season.

Blake Snell
					FanDuel			DraftKings
					Salary:		$6,900	Salary:		$7,200
					FPPG:		23.0	FPPG:		11.8
					Pitcher Rating:		40.2	Pitcher Rank:		18
Statistics	Starts	PitchPS	SIERA	ERA	K%	BB%	SS%	GB%	FB%	HH%
L30 Days	2	98.0	5.59	2.70	12.0%	12.0%	5.6%	45.7%	20.0%	26.3%
2016	3	95.3	4.89	2.40	17.4%	10.1%	5.9%	40.4%	29.8%	30.0%

Snell is a highly touted pitching prospect that is making his third career major league start tonight. He had an impressive 33.3% strikeout rate in the minor leagues this season and he is coming off of a decent outing against the Indians. I want to be on Snell before the masses, but it’s hard to justify using him tonight against the Red Sox, who have the best offense in all of baseball. I may throw Snell in a tournament team or two, but I will be avoiding him in cash games.

Batter Grind Down

Boston

The Red Sox are small favorites tonight against the Rays, but they have the eighth lowest team total on the board. They draw a boom or bust type of matchup against Blake Snell, who is a top pitching prospect making his third career start. The right-handed hitters in this lineup are in play, but with so many great plays in the Coors Field game, I will only be using the Red Sox in GPPs.

• Red Sox Offense (2016)
  Team wOBA vs. LHP — 0.346 (3 of 30)
  Team ISO vs. LHP — 0.167 (12 of 30)
  Team K% vs. LHP — 19.6% (7 of 30)
  Runs Per Game — 5.61 (1 of 30)
  Projected Run Total — 4.06 (14 of 22)

Projected Lineup

Elite Plays – NONE

Secondary Plays – Mookie Betts, Dustin Pedroia, Xander Bogaerts, Hanley Ramirez

Stackability – NONE

Tampa Bay

The Rays have a surprisingly low team total given their matchup and the fact that they are one of the best offensive teams against left-handed pitching. On the season, Eduardo Rodriguez has allowed a .387 wOBA to right-handed hitters. The Rays are a sneaky offense to target in both cash games and GPPs and I expect their ownership to be down thanks to the game in Coors Field.

• Rays Offense (2016)
  Team wOBA vs. LHP — 0.349 (2 of 30)
  Team ISO vs. LHP — 0.199 (3 of 30)
  Team K% vs. LHP — 23.8% (24 of 30)
  Runs Per Game — 4.01 (26 of 30)
  Projected Run Total — 3.94 (15 of 22)

Projected Lineup

Elite Plays – Logan Forsythe

Secondary Plays – Brad Miller, Evan Longoria, Desmond Jennings

Stackability – GPP

Chicago Cubs at Cincinnati – 7:10 PM ET

Chicago Cubs					Cincinnati
			Jake Arrieta					Dan Straily
			RIGHT					RIGHT
			Vegas Moneyline					Vegas Over/Under
			CHC -225					8.0
Stats	wOBA	HR All.	K%	BB%	Stats	wOBA	HR All.	K%	BB%
SP vs. Left	0.220	4	29.5%	8.4%	SP vs. Left	0.299	6	15.3%	14.4%
SP vs. Right	0.232	9	25.5%	5.1%	SP vs. Right	0.286	5	26.3%	5.8%

Pitcher Grind Down

Jake Arrieta
					FanDuel			DraftKings
					Salary:		$11,900	Salary:		$13,700
					FPPG:		46.0	FPPG:		26.1
					Pitcher Rating:		94.7	Pitcher Rank:		1
Statistics	Starts	PitchPS	SIERA	ERA	K%	BB%	SS%	GB%	FB%	HH%
L30 Days	6	105.2	3.31	2.57	29.3%	10.0%	13.0%	59.1%	25.0%	19.1%
2016	15	103.2	3.36	1.74	27.7%	9.1%	11.3%	56.5%	25.1%	21.6%
2015	33	104.2	2.75	1.77	27.1%	5.5%	11.1%	56.2%	22.8%	22.1%

Arrieta may not be pitching at home, but he still comes into tonight’s game as the largest favorite on the the board. He is having another excellent season, posting a 3.36 SIERA with a strikeout rate of 27.7%. He is walking a few more batters this season, but that’s not a big issue when his walk rate is still under 10%. He draws a favorable matchup against the Reds, who are ranked 26th in team wOBA and 24th in team K% against right-handed pitching this season. Arrieta slightly edges out Noah Syndergaard as the top pitching option in tonight’s slate.

Dan Straily
					FanDuel			DraftKings
					Salary:		$6,700	Salary:		$6,300
					FPPG:		25.6	FPPG:		13.5
					Pitcher Rating:		40.2	Pitcher Rank:		19
Statistics	Starts	PitchPS	SIERA	ERA	K%	BB%	SS%	GB%	FB%	HH%
L30 Days	6	100.0	4.65	5.06	20.5%	9.3%	8.8%	27.5%	45.1%	29.8%
2016	13	109.9	4.65	3.83	20.6%	10.6%	9.9%	34.8%	42.3%	29.4%
2015	3	97.0	4.67	5.40	18.4%	10.5%	9.6%	41.5%	37.7%	28.3%

Straily has a respectable strikeout rate, but that’s about all he has going for him in terms of fantasy appeal. On the season, he has a 4.65 SIERA with a walk rate over 10%. He is a fly-ball pitcher that can get into some trouble at home in the home run-friendly Great American Ballpark. There is more risk than potential reward here, as the Cubs average the second most runs per game this season.

Batter Grind Down

Chicago Cubs

The Cubs see a nice ballpark boost in this series playing in the hitter-friendly Great American Ballpark. They draw a favorable matchup against Dan Straily, who is a below-average right-handed pitcher that gives up a lot of fly balls. With the fourth highest team total on the board, both left and right-handed hitters are in play against Straily.

• Cubs Offense (2016)
  Team wOBA vs. RHP — 0.332 (7 of 30)
  Team ISO vs. RHP — 0.171 (11 of 30)
  Team K% vs. RHP — 22.0% (18 of 30)
  Runs Per Game — 5.30 (2 of 30)
  Projected Run Total — 4.72 (4 of 22)

Projected Lineup

Elite Plays – Kris Bryant, Anthony Rizzo, Willson Contreras

Secondary Plays – Jason Heyward, Ben Zobrist, Chris Coghlan

Stackability – Cash & GPP

Cincinnati

The Reds have the lowest team total on the board tonight. In addition to an elite strikeout rate, Jake Arrieta has held both left and right-handed hitters under a .232 wOBA over the last two seasons. There is no reason to have any Reds’ hitters on your radar tonight, no matter how enticing Joey Votto price tag is. If you need a cheap first baseman, I’d rather pay a few hundred more to get Prince Fielder against Ivan Nova.

• Reds Offense (2016)
  Team wOBA vs. RHP — 0.297 (26 of 30)
  Team ISO vs. RHP — 0.169 (12 of 30)
  Team K% vs. RHP — 22.8% (24 of 30)
  Runs Per Game — 4.35 (15 of 30)
  Projected Run Total — 3.28 (22 of 22)

Projected Lineup

Elite Plays – NONE

Secondary Plays – NONE

Stackability – NONE

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