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MLB Grind Down: Monday, May 7th

by Derek Farnsworth (Notorious) Last Updated 2018-05-08 01:26:39

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The RotoGrinders MLB Grind Down will give you an in-depth analysis into the upcoming MLB schedule. This article will break down the numbers for every single game and give you analysis on which trends you can exploit. While matchups are a major factor in daily fantasy baseball, there are plenty of other factors to consider such as injuries, weather, and salaries.

The analysis should point you in the right direction, but it is still up to you to decipher the information and make your own selections. No sport has more variance than baseball. The best choice is not always the right choice but following the trends will win you money over time.

Note: As always, if you want to try a new DFS site, be sure to click through a RotoGrinders link and use our DraftKings promo code, FanDuel promo code, and FantasyDraft promo code to receive the best perks in the industry.

Stackability Rating System:

GREEN – A viable full stack in cash games and GPPs.
YELLOW – A viable mini-stack in cash games and full stack in GPPs.
ORANGE – A viable stack in large field GPPs.
RED – Not a recommended stack for cash games or GPPs.

Implied Run Totals

Ballpark Ratings

San Francisco at Philadelphia – 7:05 PM ET

San Francisco Philadelphia
sanfranciscomlb Jeff Samardzija philadelphiamlb Zach Eflin
RIGHT RIGHT
Vegas Moneyline Vegas Over/Under
PHI-107 9.0
Stats wOBA xwOBA HC% BB% K% GB% Stats wOBA xwOBA HC% BB% K% GB%
SP vs. Left (2016-17) 0.334 0.345 32.9% 5.8% 24.7% 35.4% SP vs. Left (2016-17) 0.387 0.385 36.6% 5.5% 13.9% 45.0%
SP vs. Right (2016-17) 0.286 0.268 27.9% 3.3% 22.8% 46.5% SP vs. Right (2016-17) 0.332 0.322 29.2% 2.2% 11.9% 42.6%

Pitcher Grind Down

Jeff Samardzija
jeff-samardzija-300x200 FanDuel DraftKings FantasyDraft
Salary: $6,900 Salary: $8,400 Salary: $16,400
Salary Rank: 7 of 13 Salary Rank: 5 of 13 Salary Rank: 5 of 13
Stats Starts SIERA ERA K% BB% GB% HC% SC%
2017 32 3.63 4.42 24.2% 3.8% 41.5% 30.1% 20.7%
2018 3 5.65 5.27 18.5% 15.4% 31.0% 34.9% 9.3%
L14 2 5.35 8.31 18.2% 13.6% 37.9% 33.3% 10.0%

Samardzija is off to a bad start this season, posting a 5.65 SIERA with a walk rate that is nearly as high as his strikeout rate. He’s one of the few pitchers in baseball with a higher hard contact rate than ground ball rate, which is never ideal. His fastball velocity is down and he isn’t generating as many swinging strikes as last season. He’s an easy fade on the road against the Phillies in the home run-friendly Citizens Bank Park.

Quick Breakdown: Avoid Samardzija in both cash games and tournaments.

Zach Eflin
zach-eflin-300x200 FanDuel DraftKings FantasyDraft
Salary: $6,600 Salary: $7,300 Salary: $14,500
Salary Rank: 8 of 13 Salary Rank: 8 of 13 Salary Rank: 8 of 13
Stats Starts SIERA ERA K% BB% GB% HC% SC%
2017 11 5.08 6.16 12.5% 4.3% 44.1% 33.3% 16.7%
2018 1 3.78 1.50 20.0% 0.0% 40.0% 31.3% 18.8%
L14 1 3.78 1.50 20.0% 0.0% 40.0% 31.3% 18.8%

Eflin wasn’t terrible in his first start of the season, which isn’t exactly a ringing endorsement. I like to trust larger samples and if we look at his 11 starts last season, we should want no part of him tonight. In 2017, Eflin finished with a 5.08 SIERA and a strikeout rate of only 13%. He draws a bad matchup against the Giants, who will end the year with one of the lowest strikeout rates of any team in baseball.

Quick Breakdown: In this ballpark, we want to avoid pitchers (especially these two).

Batter Grind Down

San Francisco

The Giants see a major ballpark upgrade playing in Philadelphia. They don’t really have the power needed to fully take advantage of the ballpark, but it’s a boost nonetheless. They draw an excellent matchup against Zach Eflin, who has allowed a .385 xwOBA and a 37% hard contact rate to left-handed hitters over the last two seasons. Brandon Belt is one of the top hitter targets on the board tonight, as he boasts a .425 xwOBA and a 43% hard contact rate against right-handed pitching.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

# Player Bats xwOBA L15 ISO HC% BB% K% GB% FD Pos. FD Sal. DK Pos. DK Sal. FDRFT Pos. FDRFT Sal.
1 Gregor Blanco LEFT 0.298 0.250 0.121 27.4% 12.5% 21.9% 43.3% OF $2,400 OF $2,700 LF $5,600
2 Andrew McCutchen RIGHT 0.348 0.482 0.154 35.2% 11.5% 18.2% 42.4% OF $3,700 OF $4,000 RF $7,300
3 Buster Posey RIGHT 0.353 0.381 0.111 31.2% 9.1% 11.7% 47.5% C $3,400 C $3,800 C $7,700
4 Brandon Belt LEFT 0.425 0.504 0.278 43.1% 16.7% 21.7% 23.9% 1B $3,800 1B $4,100 IF/OF $8,300
5 Evan Longoria RIGHT 0.314 0.344 0.165 35.4% 4.4% 16.2% 42.6% 3B $3,500 3B $4,300 3B $8,300
6 Brandon Crawford LEFT 0.316 0.330 0.144 34.6% 6.7% 21.8% 46.8% SS $2,800 SS $3,200 SS $6,600
7 Alen Hanson SWITCH 0.236 0.315 0.143 20.8% 4.6% 22.0% 48.1% 2B $3,100 2B/SS $3,300 2B $6,400
8 Austin Jackson RIGHT 0.300 0.250 0.109 36.8% 7.8% 25.7% 45.2% OF $2,300 OF $3,000 CF $5,400
9 Jeff Samardzija RIGHT 0.155 0.000 0.093 17.2% 0.0% 35.6% 55.6% P $6,900 P $8,400 P $16,400

Elite Plays – Gregor Blanco, Brandon Belt

Secondary Plays – Andrew McCutchen, Buster Posey (DK), Evan Longoria, Brandon Crawford

Stackability – YELLOW

Philadelphia

If the bad Jeff Samardzija shows up tonight, this could be a great time to stack the Phillies. Samardzija has always struggled against left-handed hitters and this season, he is struggling with his command and his ability to generate ground balls. To succeed in this ballpark, you need to have a high strikeout rate and/or a high ground ball rate and Samardzija doesn’t have either at the moment. The lefties (Cesar Hernandez, Odubel Herrera, and Carlos Santana) are the top targets here, but I wouldn’t rule out a full Phillies’ stack.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

# Player Bats xwOBA L15 ISO HC% BB% K% GB% FD Pos. FD Sal. DK Pos. DK Sal. FDRFT Pos. FDRFT Sal.
1 Cesar Hernandez SWITCH 0.315 0.369 0.115 22.8% 11.4% 21.9% 48.9% 2B $3,500 2B $4,100 2B $8,200
2 Rhys Hoskins RIGHT 0.400 0.338 0.298 42.7% 15.1% 25.9% 28.7% OF $4,000 OF $5,100 1B $10,100
3 Odubel Herrera LEFT 0.319 0.359 0.168 28.0% 6.8% 20.3% 41.7% OF $3,100 OF $3,700 IF/OF $7,500
4 Aaron Altherr RIGHT 0.328 0.413 0.217 35.8% 7.3% 28.3% 43.2% OF $2,500 OF $3,900 LF $7,500
5 Carlos Santana SWITCH 0.388 0.314 0.213 34.7% 13.9% 16.8% 34.2% 1B $2,900 1B $3,900 1B $7,600
6 Maikel Franco RIGHT 0.324 0.426 0.188 29.8% 6.3% 15.7% 45.0% 3B $3,300 3B $3,900 3B $7,300
7 Scott Kingery RIGHT 0.342 0.255 0.135 34.6% 6.1% 24.4% 30.9% SS $2,400 3B/SS $3,200 SS $6,600
8 Andrew Knapp SWITCH 0.308 0.252 0.101 37.3% 14.6% 29.7% 56.8% C $2,200 C $2,800 C $5,700
9 Zach Eflin RIGHT 0.177 0.000 0.000 37.5% 0.0% 55.6% 57.1% P $6,600 P $7,300 P $14,500

Elite Plays – Cesar Hernandez, Carlos Santana

Secondary Plays – Rhys Hoskins, Odubel Herrera, Aaron Altherr

Stackability – YELLOW / GREEN

NY Mets at Cincinnati – 7:10 PM ET

NY Mets Cincinnati
nymetsmlb P.J. Conlon cincinnatimlb Homer Bailey
LEFT RIGHT
Vegas Moneyline Vegas Over/Under
CIN-105 9.5
Stats wOBA xwOBA HC% BB% K% GB% Stats wOBA xwOBA HC% BB% K% GB%
SP vs. Left (2016-17) SP vs. Left (2016-17) 0.353 0.370 31.6% 11.3% 13.0% 41.6%
SP vs. Right (2016-17) SP vs. Right (2016-17) 0.370 0.391 37.1% 7.2% 17.1% 45.1%

Pitcher Grind Down

P.J. Conlon
patrick-conlon-300x200 FanDuel DraftKings FantasyDraft
Salary: Salary: $4,000 Salary: $8,000
Salary Rank: of 13 Salary Rank: 14 of 13 Salary Rank: 14 of 13
Stats Starts SIERA ERA K% BB% GB% HC% SC%

Conlon is making his major league debut tonight against the Reds. He doesn’t project to be anything more than a back of the rotation type of starter and that’s not even expected to happen for another year or two. In the minors, he has had a low strikeout rate with a mediocre FIP and a high fly-ball rate. None of this sounds appealing from a DFS standpoint, especially not in his first career start.

Quick Breakdown: Fly-ball pitchers with low strikeout rates don’t tend to fare well in this ballpark.

Homer Bailey
homer-bailey-300x200 FanDuel DraftKings FantasyDraft
Salary: $5,600 Salary: $4,600 Salary: $9,100
Salary Rank: 11 of 13 Salary Rank: 12 of 13 Salary Rank: 12 of 13
Stats Starts SIERA ERA K% BB% GB% HC% SC%
2017 18 5.19 6.43 16.0% 10.0% 44.6% 31.0% 16.5%
2018 7 5.19 4.81 13.1% 7.1% 40.6% 42.1% 17.3%
L14 2 6.30 8.10 4.4% 4.4% 34.2% 36.6% 22.0%

Bailey is off to a shaky start this season, posting a 5.19 SIERA with a strikeout rate of only 13%. His numbers over his last two starts are even worse. At this point of his career, Bailey is a low strikeout pitcher that gives up a lot of hard contact to both left and right-handed hitters. He’s an easy fade against the Mets, who have five batters in their projected lineup with at least a .350 xwOBA against right-handed pitching.

Quick Breakdown: Bailey should be avoided in all formats.

Batter Grind Down

NY Mets

The Mets see a major ballpark upgrade playing in the home run-friendly Great American Ballpark. As you can see from the graph at the top of the page, this is the best ballpark for home runs in the slate and that goes for both left and right-handed hitters. Add in a matchup against Homer Bailey and we have ourselves a recipe for a successful stack. Since the start of last season, Bailey has allowed a .370 xwOBA to lefties and a .391 xwOBA to righties. Michael Conforto is one of the top value plays of the slate, as he boasts a .384 xwOBA against right-handed pitching.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

# Player Bats xwOBA L15 ISO HC% BB% K% GB% FD Pos. FD Sal. DK Pos. DK Sal. FDRFT Pos. FDRFT Sal.
1 Brandon Nimmo LEFT 0.406 0.258 0.197 37.4% 16.1% 24.0% 39.0% OF $2,700 OF $3,400 LF $6,700
2 Asdrubal Cabrera SWITCH 0.353 0.412 0.189 37.3% 9.4% 16.7% 39.6% 2B $4,000 2B $4,300 SS $8,200
3 Jay Bruce LEFT 0.391 0.358 0.253 40.2% 10.2% 20.8% 33.0% OF $3,100 OF $3,800 RF $7,600
4 Michael Conforto LEFT 0.384 0.304 0.255 39.3% 15.6% 22.5% 37.7% OF $3,100 OF $3,400 LF $6,800
5 Todd Frazier RIGHT 0.356 0.361 0.177 32.2% 15.0% 21.8% 37.7% 3B $3,600 3B $4,000 3B $7,300
6 Adrian Gonzalez LEFT 0.344 0.287 0.141 37.2% 8.1% 16.1% 36.7% 1B $2,500 1B $3,500 1B $6,300
7 Tomas Nido RIGHT 0.254 0.223 0.056 36.4% 2.7% 37.8% 36.4% C $2,000 C $2,900 C $5,600
8 P.J. Conlon LEFT P $4,000 P $8,000
9 Amed Rosario RIGHT 0.249 0.327 0.094 25.2% 2.4% 28.8% 50.4% SS $2,300 SS $2,900 SS $5,900

Elite Plays – Brandon Nimmo, Asdrubal Cabrera, Michael Conforto

Secondary Plays – Jay Bruce, Todd Frazier, Adrian Gonzalez

Stackability – GREEN

Cincinnati

The Reds are the first major league team to get a crack at the rookie, P.J. Conlon. While it can take some time for batters to adjust against a pitcher that they’ve never seen before, I would much rather take my chances with the Reds over Conlon. There are three batters in this lineup that mash left-handed pitching — Joey Votto, Eugenio Suarez, and Adam Duvall. Even though I don’t like the full Reds’ stack as much as the full Mets’ stack, these three bats are all elite plays at their respective positions. Don’t let the lefty/lefty matchup scare you off of Votto.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. LH Pitching)

# Player Bats xwOBA L15 ISO HC% BB% K% GB% FD Pos. FD Sal. DK Pos. DK Sal. FDRFT Pos. FDRFT Sal.
1 Jose Peraza RIGHT 0.276 0.296 0.054 23.1% 4.0% 12.0% 55.6% SS $3,500 SS $4,300 SS $8,100
2 Alex Blandino RIGHT 0.287 0.317 0.000 50.0% 25.0% 25.0% 50.0% 3B $2,500 2B/3B $2,900 3B $5,400
3 Joey Votto LEFT 0.403 0.553 0.236 35.5% 17.1% 17.1% 44.7% 1B $4,200 1B $5,500 1B $10,600
4 Eugenio Suarez RIGHT 0.375 0.424 0.245 46.5% 16.1% 24.7% 41.6% 3B $3,900 3B $4,900 3B $9,000
5 Adam Duvall RIGHT 0.365 0.345 0.296 36.1% 9.7% 22.7% 39.3% OF $3,000 OF $4,000 IF/OF $7,400
6 Scott Schebler LEFT 0.330 0.339 0.200 39.2% 0.6% 20.0% 48.3% OF $2,900 OF $4,600 RF $8,400
7 Devin Mesoraco RIGHT 0.313 0.287 0.138 28.0% 9.5% 20.3% 44.0% C $2,100 C $3,100 C $5,900
8 Homer Bailey RIGHT 0.142 0.072 0.143 16.7% 0.0% 25.0% 80.0% P $5,600 P $4,600 P $9,100
9 Billy Hamilton SWITCH 0.223 0.291 0.087 15.4% 3.9% 26.0% 42.9% OF $2,700 OF $3,700 CF $7,300

Elite Plays – Joey Votto, Eugenio Suarez, Adam Duvall

Secondary Plays – Jose Peraza, Devin Mesoraco

Stackability – YELLOW / GREEN

Detroit at Texas – 8:05 PM ET

Detroit Texas
detroitmlb Michael Fulmer texasmlb Matt Moore
RIGHT LEFT
Vegas Moneyline Vegas Over/Under
TEX-104 9.5
Stats wOBA xwOBA HC% BB% K% GB% Stats wOBA xwOBA HC% BB% K% GB%
SP vs. Left (2016-17) 0.305 0.325 34.6% 5.6% 17.7% 45.1% SP vs. Left (2016-17) 0.436 0.432 36.1% 8.7% 17.0% 39.4%
SP vs. Right (2016-17) 0.270 0.308 25.5% 6.3% 16.6% 51.7% SP vs. Right (2016-17) 0.340 0.352 37.4% 8.5% 18.0% 37.0%

Pitcher Grind Down

Michael Fulmer
michael-fulmer-300x200 FanDuel DraftKings FantasyDraft
Salary: $8,300 Salary: $8,000 Salary: $15,400
Salary Rank: 3 of 13 Salary Rank: 6 of 13 Salary Rank: 7 of 13
Stats Starts SIERA ERA K% BB% GB% HC% SC%
2017 25 4.48 3.83 16.9% 5.9% 49.2% 30.0% 18.1%
2018 6 4.18 2.80 18.2% 6.1% 45.2% 29.4% 18.4%
L14 2 3.02 1.50 29.2% 6.3% 42.9% 20.0% 30.0%

Fulmer has found something in his last two starts, posing a 3.02 SIERA with a strikeout rate of 29%. He’s never been a high-strikeout pitcher, but he is generating more swings and misses this season. Tonight’s matchup against the Rangers is of the boom or bust variety. While they have plenty of firepower in their lineup, they also have one of the highest strikeout rates of any team in baseball. Their projected lineup has eight batters with at least a 20% strikeout rate against right-handed pitching.

Quick Breakdown: Fulmer has sneaky upside in this matchup and is worth a look in tournaments.

Matt Moore
matt-moore-300x200 FanDuel DraftKings FantasyDraft
Salary: $5,500 Salary: $4,800 Salary: $9,400
Salary Rank: 12 of 13 Salary Rank: 11 of 13 Salary Rank: 11 of 13
Stats Starts SIERA ERA K% BB% GB% HC% SC%
2017 31 4.86 5.52 18.7% 8.5% 37.7% 34.7% 15.9%
2018 6 5.54 7.67 12.6% 9.1% 36.7% 49.5% 12.8%
L14 2 6.44 11.70 5.8% 7.7% 36.4% 59.1% 9.1%

Moore is one of the easiest fades of the slate. In six starts this season, he owns a 5.54 SIERA with a strikeout rate of only 13%. He’s a fly-ball pitcher that has given up a massive hard contact ate of 50% this season. We should want no part of him, especially in this ballpark.

Quick Breakdown: Avoid Moore in both cash games and tournaments.

Batter Grind Down

Detroit

The Tigers have one of the best matchups on the board. While their offense has struggled on the road this season, they are playing in a hitter-friendly ballpark. In addition to the low strikeout rate and the high hard contact rate, Matt Moore has allowed a .432 xwOBA to lefties and a .340 xwOBA to righties over the last two seasons. Nick Castellanos is one of my favorite hitters on the board, assuming he suits up (missed yesterday’s game with an illness). Both catchers (John Hicks and James McCann) are also viable, as are Leonys Martin and Jeimer Candelario batting in the top two spots in the order.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. LH Pitching)

# Player Bats xwOBA L15 ISO HC% BB% K% GB% FD Pos. FD Sal. DK Pos. DK Sal. FDRFT Pos. FDRFT Sal.
1 Leonys Martin LEFT 0.290 0.449 0.146 23.1% 5.7% 17.0% 41.7% OF $3,000 OF $4,100 CF $8,400
2 Jeimer Candelario SWITCH 0.273 0.313 0.132 36.1% 6.9% 29.3% 50.0% 3B $3,700 3B $4,100 3B $8,000
3 Nick Castellanos RIGHT 0.418 0.438 0.306 45.9% 7.0% 15.7% 40.6% OF $3,800 OF $4,400 IF/OF $8,300
4 Victor Martinez SWITCH 0.274 0.323 0.062 29.9% 7.4% 13.1% 53.6% C $2,600 1B $3,200 1B $6,400
5 John Hicks RIGHT 0.383 0.451 0.227 42.9% 10.8% 32.4% 46.3% C $2,600 1B/C $3,500 C $6,800
6 James McCann RIGHT 0.460 0.358 0.279 40.2% 9.5% 14.6% 36.3% C $2,400 C $3,300 C $6,700
7 JaCoby Jones RIGHT 0.265 0.316 0.121 38.2% 6.2% 36.9% 50.0% OF $2,500 OF $3,400 IF/OF $6,500
8 Jose Iglesias RIGHT 0.288 0.291 0.083 27.5% 5.1% 8.5% 44.0% SS $2,100 SS $2,600 SS $4,900
9 Dixon Machado RIGHT 0.276 0.289 0.045 29.0% 5.3% 12.0% 50.8% 2B $2,300 2B $2,800 SS $5,800

Elite Plays – Nick Castellanos, John Hicks, James McCann

Secondary Plays – Leonys Martin, Jeimer Candelario, Victor Martinez

Stackability – YELLOW / GREEN

Texas

Michael Fulmer has never been a great pitcher to target hitters against. He has an above-average ground ball rate and he induces a lot of soft and medium contact. Over the last two seasons, he has held both left and right-handed hitters under a .325 xwOBA. I know this is a good ballpark and that the Rangers have a fairly high implied run total, but I’m not in love with the matchup. Shin-Soo Choo and Joey Gallo are viable in tournaments though, as they both boast a .380+ xwOBA against right-handed pitching.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

# Player Bats xwOBA L15 ISO HC% BB% K% GB% FD Pos. FD Sal. DK Pos. DK Sal. FDRFT Pos. FDRFT Sal.
1 Delino DeShields RIGHT 0.265 0.273 0.076 25.1% 8.9% 23.0% 47.2% OF $3,100 OF $3,800 CF $7,300
2 Shin-soo Choo LEFT 0.385 0.300 0.193 41.2% 12.0% 21.5% 46.5% OF $3,200 OF $3,800 RF $7,400
3 Jurickson Profar SWITCH 0.280 0.300 0.040 25.5% 11.6% 20.5% 43.8% SS $2,700 2B/SS $3,400 3B $6,500
4 Nomar Mazara LEFT 0.344 0.394 0.194 35.5% 9.5% 19.8% 44.5% OF $3,300 OF $4,300 RF $8,100
5 Joey Gallo LEFT 0.384 0.488 0.335 46.8% 13.3% 34.3% 29.9% OF $3,500 1B/OF $4,300 1B $8,200
6 Isiah Kiner-Falefa RIGHT 0.295 0.320 0.138 38.5% 2.9% 20.6% 46.0% 3B $2,500 2B/3B $3,100 3B $5,500
7 Ronald Guzman LEFT 0.206 0.179 0.148 30.3% 3.5% 36.8% 36.4% 1B $2,000 1B $3,000 1B $5,500
8 Robinson Chirinos RIGHT 0.328 0.283 0.252 38.0% 8.8% 30.4% 38.5% C $2,400 C $3,600 C $7,700
9 Drew Robinson LEFT 0.282 0.243 0.145 36.9% 11.2% 41.9% 43.9% 2B $2,000 2B/OF $2,800 IF/OF $5,500

Elite Plays – Shin-Soo Choo (GPP), Joey Gallo (GPP)

Secondary Plays – Shin-Soo Choo (Cash), Joey Gallo (Cash), Nomar Mazara

Stackability – ORANGE / YELLOW

Miami at Chicago Cubs – 8:05 PM ET

Miami Chicago Cubs
miamimlb Jarlin Garcia cubsmlb Kyle Hendricks
LEFT RIGHT
Vegas Moneyline Vegas Over/Under
CHC-240 7.5
Stats wOBA xwOBA HC% BB% K% GB% Stats wOBA xwOBA HC% BB% K% GB%
SP vs. Left (2016-17) 0.246 0.295 29.4% 7.4% 23.0% 44.9% SP vs. Left (2016-17) 0.317 0.321 32.4% 9.9% 23.1% 43.3%
SP vs. Right (2016-17) 0.281 0.361 31.0% 9.4% 15.9% 38.2% SP vs. Right (2016-17) 0.274 0.299 28.2% 4.1% 19.3% 55.9%

Pitcher Grind Down

Jarlin Garcia
jarlin-garcia-300x200 FanDuel DraftKings FantasyDraft
Salary: $7,100 Salary: $5,900 Salary: $11,800
Salary Rank: 6 of 13 Salary Rank: 10 of 13 Salary Rank: 10 of 13
Stats Starts SIERA ERA K% BB% GB% HC% SC%
2017 0 4.37 4.73 18.7% 7.6% 39.0% 27.2% 18.5%
2018 4 4.73 1.09 18.6% 10.5% 43.7% 36.4% 14.8%
L14 2 3.99 1.50 21.3% 4.3% 26.5% 51.4% 14.3%

Garcia is due for some serious regression. His SIERA is nearly four runs higher than his ERA. He has a below-average strikeout rate, a high walk rate, and he’s given up a lot of hard contact. Something tells me that he won’t be able to sustain a .151 BABIP and a left on base percentage of 95%. That regression could start tonight on the road against the Cubs, who have some serious right-handed power in their lineup.

Quick Breakdown: Avoid Garcia in all formats.

Kyle Hendricks
kyle-hendricks-300x200 FanDuel DraftKings FantasyDraft
Salary: $7,900 Salary: $9,600 Salary: $18,400
Salary Rank: 4 of 13 Salary Rank: 2 of 13 Salary Rank: 2 of 13
Stats Starts SIERA ERA K% BB% GB% HC% SC%
2017 24 4.08 3.03 21.6% 7.0% 50.1% 30.4% 22.5%
2018 6 3.98 3.19 19.2% 6.0% 51.8% 28.8% 27.0%
L14 2 3.57 1.84 19.2% 3.9% 60.0% 32.5% 20.0%

I’m not saying this to knock on Hendricks, but you know the pitching is weak when he’s the second best pitching option of the slate. We typically see more strikeout upside from the pitcher with the second highest projection on the board. With that said, Hendricks is certainly in a favorable spot tonight at home. The Marlins have been pesky at the plate this season, but are still one of the best matchups a pitcher can have. Their projected lineup has a .293 xwOBA and a 25% strikeout rate against right-handed pitching.

Quick Breakdown: Hendricks is the number two option behind Strasburg tonight. He’s viable in all formats.

Batter Grind Down

Miami

The Marlins have the lowest implied run total of the slate. They are projected to score fewer runs than the Padres, who have to face Stephen Strasburg. This is not an offense to load up on, especially in a matchup against Kyle Hendricks. While he doesn’t have an elite strikeout rate, he generates a lot of ground balls and has held both left and right-handed hitters under a .325 xwOBA over the last two seasons combined.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

# Player Bats xwOBA L15 ISO HC% BB% K% GB% FD Pos. FD Sal. DK Pos. DK Sal. FDRFT Pos. FDRFT Sal.
1 J.T. Realmuto RIGHT 0.338 0.407 0.170 34.1% 5.5% 17.9% 49.3% C $3,500 C $4,200 C $8,000
2 Martin Prado RIGHT 0.289 0.265 0.101 20.3% 4.2% 13.9% 46.6% 3B $2,300 2B/3B $3,000 3B $5,600
3 Starlin Castro RIGHT 0.302 0.349 0.141 30.8% 4.3% 19.6% 52.8% 2B $3,000 2B $3,300 2B $6,400
4 Justin Bour LEFT 0.401 0.366 0.256 40.1% 11.5% 20.2% 41.2% 1B $3,200 1B $3,400 1B $6,600
5 Brian Anderson RIGHT 0.294 0.311 0.093 27.1% 10.9% 25.3% 55.1% 3B $3,000 3B/OF $3,300 3B $6,600
6 Derek Dietrich LEFT 0.317 0.271 0.160 35.0% 6.6% 21.8% 38.3% OF $2,400 OF $3,000 IF/OF $5,600
7 Lewis Brinson RIGHT 0.264 0.276 0.115 32.3% 7.1% 38.1% 51.6% OF $2,400 OF $2,900 CF $5,700
8 Miguel Rojas RIGHT 0.303 0.341 0.087 24.2% 7.3% 11.2% 53.9% SS $2,200 SS $2,600 2B $4,500
9 Jarlin Garcia LEFT 0.129 0.231 0.000 0.0% 14.3% 57.1% 100.0% P $7,100 P $5,900 P $11,800

Elite Plays – None

Secondary Plays – None

Stackability – RED

Chicago Cubs

We don’t have a helping wind in Chicago today, but that’s for the best. Whenever the wind is blowing out in Wrigley, it concentrates ownership. As mentioned above, we can expect some serious regression for Jarlin Garcia, which makes the Cubs one of the most appealing stacks of the slate. If you look at Garcia’s expected wOBA, it’s 80 points higher than his actual wOBA. In other words, he has been extremely lucky against righties this season. The one-through-five stack is certainly viable here, as Anthony Rizzo is one of the few lefties that has power against left-handed pitching.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. LH Pitching)

# Player Bats xwOBA L15 ISO HC% BB% K% GB% FD Pos. FD Sal. DK Pos. DK Sal. FDRFT Pos. FDRFT Sal.
1 Albert Almora RIGHT 0.354 0.260 0.171 27.9% 10.2% 12.1% 45.4% OF $2,800 OF $3,400 CF $6,700
2 Javier Baez RIGHT 0.336 0.331 0.255 39.3% 6.5% 24.3% 45.2% 2B $4,100 2B $4,500 2B $9,100
3 Kris Bryant RIGHT 0.435 0.323 0.248 37.6% 17.6% 15.4% 34.4% 3B $4,200 3B $5,300 IF/OF $9,200
4 Anthony Rizzo LEFT 0.363 0.279 0.223 33.3% 9.0% 15.6% 41.0% 1B $4,100 1B $4,800 1B $9,300
5 Willson Contreras RIGHT 0.396 0.333 0.223 34.6% 15.6% 18.0% 51.4% C $2,700 C $4,100 IF/OF $8,000
6 Ben Zobrist SWITCH 0.308 0.309 0.106 31.9% 9.4% 12.8% 49.1% OF $2,700 2B/OF $3,800 IF/OF $7,500
7 Addison Russell RIGHT 0.339 0.237 0.161 30.7% 11.8% 22.1% 43.2% SS $3,000 SS $3,100 SS $5,600
8 Jason Heyward LEFT 0.275 0.360 0.084 24.3% 4.6% 22.4% 45.9% OF $2,600 OF $3,000 RF $5,800
9 Kyle Hendricks RIGHT 0.063 0.020 0.000 14.3% 0.0% 63.2% 57.1% P $7,900 P $9,600 P $18,400

Elite Plays – Albert Almora, Javier Baez, Kris Bryant, Willson Contreras (DK)

Secondary Plays – Willson Contreras (DK), Anthony Rizzo

Stackability – YELLOW / GREEN

Minnesota at St. Louis – 8:10 PM ET

Minnesota St. Louis
minnesotamlb Fernando Romero stlouismlb John Gant
RIGHT RIGHT
Vegas Moneyline Vegas Over/Under
STL-135 8.5
Stats wOBA xwOBA HC% BB% K% GB% Stats wOBA xwOBA HC% BB% K% GB%
SP vs. Left (2016-17) 0.146 0.205 16.7% 0.0% 36.4% 50.0% SP vs. Left (2016-17) 0.368 0.323 36.0% 16.2% 16.2% 48.0%
SP vs. Right (2016-17) 0.425 0.485 75.0% 25.0% 8.3% 62.5% SP vs. Right (2016-17) 0.299 0.277 21.6% 8.3% 12.5% 56.8%

Pitcher Grind Down

Fernando Romero
fernando-romero-300x200 FanDuel DraftKings FantasyDraft
Salary: $6,400 Salary: $7,700 Salary: $15,500
Salary Rank: 9 of 13 Salary Rank: 7 of 13 Salary Rank: 6 of 13
Stats Starts SIERA ERA K% BB% GB% HC% SC%
2018 1 4.32 0.00 21.7% 13.0% 57.1% 50.0% 21.4%
L14 1 4.36 0.00 21.7% 13.0% 57.1% 50.0% 21.4%

Romero is making his second career major league start. He pitched out of some jams in his first outing, which isn’t something we can expect a young pitcher to do on a regular basis. He has pitched fairly well in the minors, but control is a major issue, especially at this level. For now, I will be taking a wait and see approach. As an underdog on the road in a difficult matchup against the Cardinals, he’s an easy fade tonight.

Quick Breakdown: Keep an eye on Romero, but avoid him tonight.

John Gant
john-gant-300x200 FanDuel DraftKings FantasyDraft
Salary: $5,500 Salary: $4,200 Salary: $8,100
Salary Rank: 12 of 13 Salary Rank: 13 of 13 Salary Rank: 13 of 13
Stats Starts SIERA ERA K% BB% GB% HC% SC%
2017 2 5.57 4.67 14.5% 13.2% 53.7% 29.6% 25.9%
2018 0 4.36 0.00 11.1% 0.0% 50.0% 12.5% 62.5%
L14 0 4.36 0.00 11.1% 0.0% 50.0% 12.5% 62.5%

Gant is going to garner a lot of ownership tonight thanks to his price tag on DraftKings ($4,200). Stephen Strasburg is really the only ace on the slate and pairing him with Gant allows you to spend up on some of the bigger bats in this slate. While I don’t hate the strategy, I have no issue fading Gant. In five minor league starts this season, he owns a 5.38 SIERA with a strikeout rate of 18% and a walk rate of 9%. Those are bad numbers for the majors, let alone Triple-A ball. I like the price point and I like that he’s pitching at home, but he’s far from a sure thing.

Quick Breakdown: Gant makes sense as an SP2 in cash games given the price point, but he’s an easy fade in tournaments if he’s going to be highly owned.

Batter Grind Down

Minnesota

One way to gain leverage on the field is to target hitters against a pitcher that projects to be highly owned. If that offense has a big night, it will help you out in two ways — you’ll obviously rack up fantasy points from your hitters, while the field will be losing points from their pitcher. I certainly don’t mind a Twins’ stack in large-field tournaments. John Gant has not shown much in the minors or in the majors. We are dealing with a small sample size, but he has allowed a 36% hard contact rate to lefties and the Twins are projected to have at least five of them in their lineup tonight.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

# Player Bats xwOBA L15 ISO HC% BB% K% GB% FD Pos. FD Sal. DK Pos. DK Sal. FDRFT Pos. FDRFT Sal.
1 Joe Mauer LEFT 0.402 0.422 0.124 39.8% 13.1% 13.1% 48.8% 1B $3,300 1B $3,800 1B $7,300
2 Brian Dozier RIGHT 0.327 0.281 0.200 32.4% 10.1% 20.2% 37.4% 2B $3,800 2B $4,700 2B $8,500
3 Max Kepler LEFT 0.331 0.327 0.212 37.2% 9.6% 16.4% 41.6% OF $3,400 OF $3,700 RF $7,400
4 Eduardo Escobar SWITCH 0.340 0.401 0.239 34.7% 6.6% 20.4% 30.7% SS $4,100 3B/SS $4,500 SS $8,900
5 Eddie Rosario LEFT 0.355 0.358 0.271 34.4% 6.8% 17.3% 37.9% OF $3,900 OF $4,200 LF $8,500
6 Ehire Adrianza SWITCH 0.282 0.269 0.071 25.4% 9.9% 19.1% 42.0% 3B $2,300 SS $2,400 SS $4,800
7 Mitch Garver RIGHT 0.284 0.273 0.220 41.9% 10.7% 33.9% 45.2% C $2,200 C $3,200 C $6,400
8 Ryan LaMarre RIGHT 0.351 0.282 0.000 35.7% 15.4% 26.9% 57.1% OF $2,100 OF $2,600 CF $4,900
9 Fernando Romero RIGHT P $6,400 P $7,700 P $15,500

Elite Plays – None

Secondary Plays – Joe Mauer, Brian Dozier, Max Kepler, Eduardo Escobar, Eddie Rosario

Stackability – YELLOW

St. Louis

The Cardinals are facing a rookie right-hander that is only making his second career major league start. Fernando Romero isn’t a high-strikeout pitcher and he doesn’t have the best command. If the Cardinals are patient (they usually are), they should get some hittable pitches tonight at home. Matt Carpenter is one of the top point-per-dollar plays on the board. Over the last two seasons, he has a .391 xwOBA and a 44% hard contact rate against right-handed pitching.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

# Player Bats xwOBA L15 ISO HC% BB% K% GB% FD Pos. FD Sal. DK Pos. DK Sal. FDRFT Pos. FDRFT Sal.
1 Matt Carpenter LEFT 0.391 0.437 0.228 43.6% 17.7% 20.3% 24.8% 2B $3,400 2B/3B $3,600 3B $7,700
2 Dexter Fowler SWITCH 0.357 0.337 0.237 36.8% 13.2% 21.2% 36.9% OF $3,300 OF $3,900 CF $7,200
3 Jose Martinez RIGHT 0.403 0.435 0.148 36.6% 9.0% 17.3% 46.6% 1B $3,400 1B $3,400 IF/OF $6,800
4 Marcell Ozuna RIGHT 0.371 0.385 0.240 41.7% 7.9% 22.3% 45.9% OF $3,200 OF $3,500 LF $6,700
5 Paul DeJong RIGHT 0.352 0.398 0.235 36.6% 4.4% 28.0% 31.7% SS $3,300 SS $4,200 SS $8,400
6 Harrison Bader RIGHT 0.290 0.361 0.073 29.9% 8.3% 27.8% 45.5% OF $2,700 OF $3,700 LF $7,400
7 Kolten Wong LEFT 0.316 0.315 0.147 28.1% 9.4% 14.4% 46.8% 2B $2,500 2B $3,100 2B $5,500
8 Francisco Pena RIGHT 0.445 0.131 0.462 33.3% 0.0% 28.6% 33.3% C $2,000 C $2,800 C $5,600
9 John Gant RIGHT 0.096 0.068 0.000 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 100.0% P $5,500 P $4,200 P $8,100

Elite Plays – Matt Carpenter

Secondary Plays – Dexter Fowler, Jose Martinez, Marcell Ozuna, Paul DeJong

Stackability – YELLOW

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About the Author

Notorious
Derek Farnsworth (Notorious)

Derek Farnsworth (aka Notorious) is a lead RotoGrinders Expert and one of the most recognizable names and faces in all of DFS. Before joining the RotoGrinders team, Derek received a Master’s Degree from the University of Utah. When he’s not busy providing content, he’s dominating the DFS industry as evidenced by his consistent top rankings in several sports and multiple Live Final appearances. Noto provides expert NBA, NFL, MLB, and PGA analysis for RotoGrinders Premium members on a daily basis and has also been nominated for five different Fantasy Sports Writer’s Association (FSWA) awards. Follow Noto on X – @RG_Notorious