MLB Grind Down: Monday, September 18th
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The RotoGrinders MLB Grind Down will give you an in-depth analysis into the upcoming MLB schedule. This article will break down the numbers for every single game and give you analysis on which trends you can exploit. While matchups are a major factor in daily fantasy baseball, there are plenty of other factors to consider such as injuries, weather, and salaries.
The analysis should point you in the right direction, but it is still up to you to decipher the information and make your own selections. No sport has more variance than baseball. The best choice is not always the right choice but following the trends will win you money over time.
Note: As always, if you want to try a new DFS site, be sure to click through a RotoGrinders link and use our DraftKings promo code, FanDuel promo code, and FantasyDraft promo code to receive the best perks in the industry.
Stackability Rating System:
GREEN – A viable full stack in cash games and GPPs.
YELLOW – A viable mini-stack in cash games and full stack in GPPs.
ORANGE – A viable stack in large field GPPs.
RED – Not a recommended stack for cash games or GPPs.
Implied Run Totals
Boston at Baltimore – 7:05 PM ET
Boston | Baltimore | ||||||||||||||
Doug Fister | Dylan Bundy | ||||||||||||||
RIGHT | RIGHT | ||||||||||||||
Vegas Moneyline | Vegas Over/Under | ||||||||||||||
BAL-120 | 9.0 | ||||||||||||||
Stats | wOBA | xwOBA | HC% | BB% | K% | GB% | Stats | wOBA | xwOBA | HC% | BB% | K% | GB% | ||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
SP vs. Left (2016-17) | 0.360 | 0.341 | 38.3% | 11.9% | 19.2% | 49.1% | SP vs. Left (2016-17) | 0.325 | 0.337 | 39.2% | 8.1% | 17.1% | 30.8% | ||
SP vs. Right (2016-17) | 0.229 | 0.267 | 25.0% | 7.1% | 22.6% | 52.3% | SP vs. Right (2016-17) | 0.290 | 0.293 | 32.5% | 6.7% | 26.6% | 35.1% |
Pitcher Grind Down
Doug Fister | |||||||||
FanDuel | DraftKings | FantasyDraft | |||||||
Salary: | $7,800 | Salary: | $8,400 | Salary: | $16,400 | ||||
Salary Rank: | 5 of 14 | Salary Rank: | 5 of 14 | Salary Rank: | 5 of 14 | ||||
Stats | Starts | SIERA | ERA | K% | BB% | GB% | HC% | SC% | |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
2016 | 32 | 4.97 | 4.64 | 14.8% | 8.0% | 45.3% | 31.5% | 19.7% | |
2017 | 12 | 4.51 | 4.40 | 20.8% | 9.6% | 50.7% | 32.0% | 18.0% | |
L30 | 5 | 3.60 | 2.91 | 23.7% | 6.9% | 60.7% | 25.6% | 24.4% |
Fister has pitched well in his last five starts, posting a 3.60 SIERA with a strikeout rate of 24% and a walk rate of 7%. What stands out the most during that stretch is his 61% ground ball rate. The best time to target Fister is against a right-handed heavy offense, since he has held righties to a .267 xwOBA with a 52% ground ball rate this season. Tonight’s matchup against the Orioles should bode well for him, as Baltimore will likely roll out a lineup with seven or eight right-handed hitters.
Quick Breakdown: Fister isn’t a pitcher we should rely in cash games, but he has some appeal as a low-owned tournament play.
Dylan Bundy | |||||||||
FanDuel | DraftKings | FantasyDraft | |||||||
Salary: | $8,900 | Salary: | $9,100 | Salary: | $17,700 | ||||
Salary Rank: | 3 of 14 | Salary Rank: | 4 of 14 | Salary Rank: | 4 of 14 | ||||
Stats | Starts | SIERA | ERA | K% | BB% | GB% | HC% | SC% | |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
2016 | 14 | 4.23 | 4.02 | 21.9% | 8.9% | 35.9% | 28.0% | 23.6% | |
2017 | 27 | 4.42 | 4.03 | 22.1% | 7.4% | 32.9% | 35.9% | 17.8% | |
L30 | 4 | 3.19 | 3.24 | 32.4% | 6.9% | 36.7% | 36.1% | 18.0% |
Bundy has also been in excellent form over the last month of play, posting a 3.19 SIERA with a strikeout rate of 32% and a walk rate of 7%. His swinging strike rate has gone up drastically in his last six starts – 15%, 16%, 21%, 19%, 11%, 15%. The Red Sox have a low strikeout rate as a team, but Bundy’s stuff has been electric recently. Sometimes I’m willing to bet on risk over matchup, especially in tournaments.
Quick Breakdown: Bundy isn’t the safest cash game option, but he’s viable as a low owned play in tournaments.
Batter Grind Down
Boston
The Red Sox draw a fairly difficult matchup against Dylan Bundy, who has had his best stretch of the season in his last six starts. He’s generating a lot of swings and misses and he has good command. He has struggled a bit against left-handed hitters this year, allowing a .337 xwOBA with a 39% hard contact rate, but he has been tough on righties. Andrew Benintendi and Mitch Moreland are both viable one-off candidates, but the rest of the Red Sox hitters can be avoided.
Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)
# | Player | Bats | wOBA | xwOBA | ISO | HC% | BB% | K% | GB% | FD Pos. | FD Sal. | DK Pos. | DK Sal. | FDRFT Pos. | FDRFT Sal. |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
1 | Xander Bogaerts | RIGHT | 0.315 | 0.270 | 0.132 | 30.5% | 7.9% | 19.1% | 46.7% | SS | $3,400 | SS | $4,200 | SS | $8,100 |
2 | Dustin Pedroia | RIGHT | 0.330 | 0.313 | 0.098 | 25.6% | 9.1% | 10.7% | 47.9% | 2B | $3,600 | 2B | $4,400 | 2B | $8,700 |
3 | Andrew Benintendi | LEFT | 0.350 | 0.344 | 0.182 | 37.3% | 9.4% | 16.4% | 37.0% | OF | $4,300 | OF | $4,900 | LF | $9,600 |
4 | Mookie Betts | RIGHT | 0.326 | 0.331 | 0.185 | 35.2% | 9.6% | 11.5% | 39.5% | OF | $4,600 | OF | $5,200 | RF | $10,000 |
5 | Mitch Moreland | LEFT | 0.334 | 0.381 | 0.206 | 39.9% | 9.9% | 20.8% | 41.0% | 1B | $3,300 | 1B | $3,800 | 1B | $7,500 |
6 | Rafael Devers | LEFT | 0.294 | 0.287 | 0.180 | 32.7% | 7.6% | 22.2% | 50.5% | 3B | $3,400 | 3B | $3,600 | 3B | $7,200 |
7 | Brock Holt | LEFT | 0.221 | 0.240 | 0.041 | 22.5% | 12.4% | 23.9% | 56.3% | 3B | $2,000 | 2B/OF | $2,400 | 3B | $4,800 |
8 | Sandy Leon | SWITCH | 0.266 | 0.266 | 0.119 | 31.9% | 7.8% | 26.2% | 36.6% | C | $2,300 | C | $2,700 | C | $5,400 |
9 | Jackie Bradley Jr. | LEFT | 0.318 | 0.324 | 0.180 | 37.7% | 8.2% | 24.5% | 43.1% | OF | $3,400 | OF | $3,400 | CF | $6,600 |
Elite Plays – None
Secondary Plays – Andrew Benintendi, Mitch Moreland
Stackability – ORANGE
Baltimore
This is a really bad matchup for the Orioles. As mentioned above, Doug Fister has held right-handed hitters to a .267 xwOBA, a 25% hard contact rate, and a 52% ground ball rate. His strikeout rate against righties is at 23%, which is a lot higher than you would think for a pitcher that has historically had a low k-rate. Chris Davis is my favorite target here and his salary is discounted on both DraftKings ($3,000) and FantasyDraft ($6,000). The only right-handed batter on my radar here is Manny Machado, who has two home runs against Fister in only 12 career plate appearances.
Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)
# | Player | Bats | wOBA | xwOBA | ISO | HC% | BB% | K% | GB% | FD Pos. | FD Sal. | DK Pos. | DK Sal. | FDRFT Pos. | FDRFT Sal. |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
1 | Tim Beckham | RIGHT | 0.338 | 0.313 | 0.180 | 39.7% | 5.5% | 29.0% | 48.1% | SS | $3,300 | SS | $3,800 | SS | $7,600 |
2 | Manny Machado | RIGHT | 0.332 | 0.359 | 0.212 | 37.1% | 7.9% | 16.7% | 43.4% | 3B | $3,500 | 3B | $4,800 | 3B | $9,200 |
3 | Jonathan Schoop | RIGHT | 0.351 | 0.309 | 0.196 | 33.8% | 4.1% | 19.9% | 41.6% | 2B | $3,100 | 2B | $3,900 | 2B | $7,800 |
4 | Adam Jones | RIGHT | 0.339 | 0.310 | 0.193 | 30.6% | 3.3% | 17.7% | 44.3% | OF | $3,300 | OF | $3,800 | CF | $7,500 |
5 | Trey Mancini | RIGHT | 0.373 | 0.351 | 0.244 | 35.6% | 6.3% | 22.3% | 52.4% | OF | $3,400 | 1B/OF | $3,600 | IF/OF | $7,200 |
6 | Mark Trumbo | RIGHT | 0.288 | 0.299 | 0.161 | 30.5% | 7.5% | 24.9% | 42.7% | OF | $2,900 | OF | $3,500 | IF/OF | $6,800 |
7 | Chris Davis | LEFT | 0.322 | 0.331 | 0.247 | 44.1% | 12.1% | 36.1% | 37.3% | 1B | $3,200 | 1B | $3,000 | IF/OF | $6,000 |
8 | Welington Castillo | RIGHT | 0.325 | 0.329 | 0.206 | 37.0% | 5.6% | 25.8% | 42.2% | C | $2,900 | C | $3,300 | C | $6,600 |
9 | Seth Smith | LEFT | 0.332 | 0.346 | 0.172 | 35.8% | 9.9% | 20.9% | 44.4% | OF | $2,000 | OF | $2,600 | LF | $5,100 |
Elite Plays – None
Secondary Plays – Manny Machado, Chris Davis
Stackability – ORANGE
LA Dodgers at Philadelphia – 7:05 PM ET
LA Dodgers | Philadelphia | ||||||||||||||
Clayton Kershaw | Nick Pivetta | ||||||||||||||
LEFT | RIGHT | ||||||||||||||
Vegas Moneyline | Vegas Over/Under | ||||||||||||||
LAD-280 | 7.5 | ||||||||||||||
Stats | wOBA | xwOBA | HC% | BB% | K% | GB% | Stats | wOBA | xwOBA | HC% | BB% | K% | GB% | ||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
SP vs. Left (2016-17) | 0.315 | 0.284 | 29.6% | 4.0% | 25.6% | 45.9% | SP vs. Left (2016-17) | 0.322 | 0.300 | 29.6% | 10.5% | 24.2% | 43.1% | ||
SP vs. Right (2016-17) | 0.234 | 0.240 | 27.0% | 4.8% | 32.2% | 47.8% | SP vs. Right (2016-17) | 0.415 | 0.363 | 43.1% | 8.6% | 22.8% | 43.8% |
Pitcher Grind Down
Clayton Kershaw | |||||||||
FanDuel | DraftKings | FantasyDraft | |||||||
Salary: | $12,100 | Salary: | $13,700 | Salary: | $26,700 | ||||
Salary Rank: | 1 of 14 | Salary Rank: | 1 of 14 | Salary Rank: | 1 of 14 | ||||
Stats | Starts | SIERA | ERA | K% | BB% | GB% | HC% | SC% | |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
2016 | 21 | 2.41 | 1.69 | 31.6% | 2.0% | 49.4% | 28.4% | 20.3% | |
2017 | 24 | 2.97 | 2.12 | 30.9% | 4.6% | 47.4% | 27.6% | 24.5% | |
L30 | 3 | 3.26 | 2.87 | 29.4% | 5.9% | 47.7% | 22.7% | 25.0% |
Kershaw has struggled a bit since coming back from injury. He has posted an xFIP above 4.00 in each of his last two starts and his swinging strike rate in those outings was 12%, which is considerably lower than his season average (14%). If the Dodgers want to make it to the World Series, they need their ace to be at the top of his game. Kershaw’s recent form isn’t ideal, but it’s still better than 95% of pitchers in baseball. He is clearly the top pitching option tonight, as he takes on the Phillies, who are ranked 24th in team wOBA against left-handed pitching this season.
Quick Breakdown: You can make a case to fade Kershaw in tournaments, but he’s clearly the top play in the slate and should be locked into your cash game lineups.
Nick Pivetta | |||||||||
FanDuel | DraftKings | FantasyDraft | |||||||
Salary: | $5,500 | Salary: | $6,200 | Salary: | $12,400 | ||||
Salary Rank: | 13 of 14 | Salary Rank: | 9 of 14 | Salary Rank: | 9 of 14 | ||||
Stats | Starts | SIERA | ERA | K% | BB% | GB% | HC% | SC% | |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
2017 | 23 | 4.36 | 6.75 | 23.5% | 9.5% | 43.5% | 36.7% | 16.6% | |
L30 | 5 | 4.09 | 8.87 | 20.4% | 8.3% | 59.2% | 29.9% | 19.5% |
Pivetta has not pitched well in his first 23 major league starts, posting a 6.75 ERA. His peripheral statistics suggest some improvement (4.36 SIERA with a strikeout rate of 24%), but I want to see him string together a couple of quality starts before considering him as a play in DFS. He is the largest underdog in the slate and he draws a difficult matchup against the Dodgers. If you look at their projected lineup below, Los Angeles has eight batters with an xwOBA over .320 against right-handed pitching this season. To put that into context, the most recent Padres’ lineup had zero hitters that matched that description.
Quick Breakdown: As a large underdog against a potent offense, Pivetta is an easy fade in all formats.
Batter Grind Down
LA Dodgers
The Dodgers draw one of the best matchups in the slate. They are facing a rookie pitcher in a home run-friendly ballpark. On the season, Nick Pivetta has really struggled against right-handed hitters, allowing a .363 xwOBA and a 43% hard contact rate. He has been tougher on lefties, but we can still target the likes of Corey Seager and Cody Bellinger with confidence (they both have a .365+ xwOBA and a 44%+ hard contact rate against righties). The Dodgers are a viable stack in both cash games and tournaments.
Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)
# | Player | Bats | wOBA | xwOBA | ISO | HC% | BB% | K% | GB% | FD Pos. | FD Sal. | DK Pos. | DK Sal. | FDRFT Pos. | FDRFT Sal. |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
1 | Chris Taylor | RIGHT | 0.360 | 0.334 | 0.210 | 34.5% | 9.1% | 25.5% | 41.7% | OF | $3,200 | 2B/OF | $3,500 | 2B | $6,900 |
2 | Corey Seager | LEFT | 0.360 | 0.386 | 0.172 | 44.7% | 12.2% | 20.9% | 41.2% | SS | $3,100 | SS | $4,300 | SS | $8,400 |
3 | Justin Turner | RIGHT | 0.364 | 0.369 | 0.157 | 36.2% | 10.4% | 11.3% | 32.0% | 3B | $4,000 | 3B | $4,400 | 3B | $8,400 |
4 | Cody Bellinger | LEFT | 0.392 | 0.368 | 0.345 | 44.6% | 13.0% | 26.6% | 35.9% | 1B | $4,600 | 1B/OF | $5,100 | IF/OF | $10,000 |
5 | Yasiel Puig | RIGHT | 0.377 | 0.355 | 0.270 | 34.9% | 9.3% | 19.5% | 44.7% | OF | $3,500 | OF | $4,100 | RF | $8,100 |
6 | Curtis Granderson | LEFT | 0.333 | 0.332 | 0.241 | 33.8% | 15.4% | 23.3% | 30.9% | OF | $2,500 | OF | $3,400 | CF | $6,800 |
7 | Austin Barnes | RIGHT | 0.424 | 0.358 | 0.135 | 23.6% | 17.3% | 15.5% | 47.2% | C | $2,200 | C | $3,600 | C | $7,200 |
8 | Chase Utley | LEFT | 0.318 | 0.323 | 0.167 | 37.4% | 9.6% | 15.6% | 44.5% | 2B | $2,600 | 2B | $2,800 | 2B | $5,400 |
9 | Clayton Kershaw | LEFT | 0.244 | 0.251 | 0.029 | 11.5% | 10.3% | 23.1% | 63.6% | P | $12,100 | P | $13,700 | P | $26,700 |
Elite Plays – Chris Taylor, Corey Seager, Justin Turner, Cody Bellinger (GPP), Yasiel Puig
Secondary Plays – Cody Bellinger (Cash), Curtis Granderson, Austin Barnes
Stackability – GREEN
Philadelphia
The Phillies draw the worst matchup in the slate and it’s not even close. The next best pitcher after Clayton Kershaw is Patrick Corbin and the talent gap between these two southpaws is massive. In addition to the elite strikeout rate (30%), Kershaw has held both left and right-handed hitters under a .285 xwOBA and under a 30% hard contact rate this season. I’m as big of a Rhys Hoskins fan as there is and even I will be fading him tonight.
Projected Lineup (Splits vs. LH Pitching)
# | Player | Bats | wOBA | xwOBA | ISO | HC% | BB% | K% | GB% | FD Pos. | FD Sal. | DK Pos. | DK Sal. | FDRFT Pos. | FDRFT Sal. |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
1 | Odubel Herrera | LEFT | 0.374 | 0.332 | 0.206 | 34.6% | 3.5% | 22.4% | 52.4% | OF | $3,000 | OF | $3,700 | IF/OF | $7,200 |
2 | Freddy Galvis | SWITCH | 0.277 | 0.266 | 0.104 | 22.9% | 3.3% | 11.6% | 38.7% | SS | $2,200 | SS | $2,900 | SS | $5,700 |
3 | Aaron Altherr | RIGHT | 0.343 | 0.335 | 0.255 | 38.2% | 11.3% | 17.0% | 47.4% | OF | $2,000 | OF | $3,600 | LF | $7,200 |
4 | Rhys Hoskins | RIGHT | 0.505 | 0.523 | 0.643 | 50.0% | 27.5% | 15.0% | 22.7% | OF | $3,000 | 1B/OF | $4,500 | 1B | $8,700 |
5 | Nick Williams | LEFT | 0.352 | 0.286 | 0.164 | 23.4% | 4.1% | 27.4% | 57.4% | OF | $2,500 | OF | $3,400 | LF | $6,800 |
6 | Maikel Franco | RIGHT | 0.282 | 0.290 | 0.167 | 34.2% | 7.9% | 14.5% | 50.4% | 3B | $2,000 | 3B | $3,300 | 3B | $6,600 |
7 | Jorge Alfaro | RIGHT | 0.190 | 0.240 | 0.043 | 14.3% | 8.0% | 36.0% | 57.1% | C | $2,000 | C | $3,200 | C | $6,400 |
8 | J.P. Crawford | LEFT | 0.322 | 0.328 | 0.100 | 0.0% | 23.1% | 23.1% | 14.3% | SS | $2,000 | 3B/SS | $2,600 | SS | $5,200 |
9 | Nick Pivetta | RIGHT | 0.000 | 0.076 | 0.000 | 12.5% | 0.0% | 42.9% | 75.0% | P | $5,500 | P | $6,200 | P | $12,400 |
Elite Plays – None
Secondary Plays – None
Stackability – RED
Milwaukee at Pittsburgh – 7:05 PM ET
Milwaukee | Pittsburgh | ||||||||||||||
Brent Suter | Jameson Taillon | ||||||||||||||
LEFT | RIGHT | ||||||||||||||
Vegas Moneyline | Vegas Over/Under | ||||||||||||||
PIT-110 | 8.5 | ||||||||||||||
Stats | wOBA | xwOBA | HC% | BB% | K% | GB% | Stats | wOBA | xwOBA | HC% | BB% | K% | GB% | ||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
SP vs. Left (2016-17) | 0.256 | 0.302 | 33.3% | 9.0% | 17.9% | 45.8% | SP vs. Left (2016-17) | 0.377 | 0.345 | 28.9% | 10.8% | 14.7% | 52.0% | ||
SP vs. Right (2016-17) | 0.322 | 0.308 | 28.8% | 7.1% | 19.9% | 45.0% | SP vs. Right (2016-17) | 0.324 | 0.266 | 31.4% | 6.2% | 26.3% | 47.3% |
Pitcher Grind Down
Brent Suter | |||||||||
FanDuel | DraftKings | FantasyDraft | |||||||
Salary: | $6,200 | Salary: | $5,400 | Salary: | $10,800 | ||||
Salary Rank: | 10 of 14 | Salary Rank: | 12 of 14 | Salary Rank: | 11 of 14 | ||||
Stats | Starts | SIERA | ERA | K% | BB% | GB% | HC% | SC% | |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
2016 | 2 | 4.33 | 3.32 | 16.5% | 5.5% | 43.3% | 34.3% | 22.9% | |
2017 | 11 | 4.45 | 3.66 | 19.4% | 7.6% | 45.2% | 29.9% | 22.9% | |
L30 | 2 | 4.94 | 2.57 | 16.7% | 10.0% | 42.9% | 31.8% | 40.9% |
Suter only threw 50 pitches in his last start. While the Brewers will likely stretch him out a bit tonight, he’s still going to be a on pitch count. We have a pitcher with limited upside to begin with that is going to be on a pitch count and that is facing a Pirates’ offense that doesn’t strikeout often. This is not a great spot for Suter, even though we typically like to target pitchers in this ballpark.
Quick Breakdown: There are too many red flags for Suter to deserve consideration tonight.
Jameson Taillon | |||||||||
FanDuel | DraftKings | FantasyDraft | |||||||
Salary: | $6,500 | Salary: | $7,100 | Salary: | $14,100 | ||||
Salary Rank: | 9 of 14 | Salary Rank: | 7 of 14 | Salary Rank: | 7 of 14 | ||||
Stats | Starts | SIERA | ERA | K% | BB% | GB% | HC% | SC% | |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
2016 | 18 | 3.61 | 3.38 | 20.3% | 4.1% | 52.4% | 33.2% | 17.3% | |
2017 | 22 | 4.26 | 4.78 | 21.1% | 8.3% | 49.6% | 30.2% | 23.4% | |
L30 | 4 | 5.64 | 5.49 | 13.0% | 12.0% | 53.7% | 29.0% | 23.2% |
The Pirates skipped Taillon’s last start after he gave up six earned runs to the Cubs on 11 hits nearly two weeks ago. We can look at this in one of two ways. Either the rest will do him some good or he will have spent the entire time thinking about how putrid he was in his last start. The Brewers used to be an offense that we could pick on with right-handed pitchers, but that’s no longer the case. After a few acquisitions, Milwaukee has the ability to roll out five or six left-handed hitters.
Quick Breakdown: Taillon is cheap and pitching at home, but his recent form is concerning. He’s a deep GPP play at best tonight.
Batter Grind Down
Milwaukee
The Brewers see a negative ballpark shift playing in Pittsburgh, but they draw a decent matchup against Jameson Taillon, who has been in awful form recently. In his last four outings, Taillon has a 13% strikeout rate, a 12% walk rate, and a 5.64 SIERA. When the Brewers aren’t striking out, they actually have quite a bit of power in their lineup. Each of the first six hitters in their projected lineup has an xwOBA of at least .325 against right-handed pitching this season.
Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)
# | Player | Bats | wOBA | xwOBA | ISO | HC% | BB% | K% | GB% | FD Pos. | FD Sal. | DK Pos. | DK Sal. | FDRFT Pos. | FDRFT Sal. |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
1 | Eric Sogard | LEFT | 0.354 | 0.347 | 0.109 | 25.2% | 16.1% | 11.2% | 41.9% | 2B | $2,400 | 2B/SS | $3,400 | 2B | $6,600 |
2 | Neil Walker | SWITCH | 0.366 | 0.356 | 0.217 | 33.6% | 11.4% | 15.9% | 36.8% | 2B | $3,200 | 2B | $3,700 | 2B | $7,200 |
3 | Ryan Braun | RIGHT | 0.347 | 0.329 | 0.217 | 37.2% | 7.6% | 21.2% | 48.2% | OF | $3,700 | OF | $4,100 | LF | $8,000 |
4 | Travis Shaw | LEFT | 0.376 | 0.361 | 0.261 | 39.9% | 10.9% | 21.8% | 42.0% | 3B | $3,300 | 3B | $4,300 | 3B | $8,400 |
5 | Domingo Santana | RIGHT | 0.365 | 0.337 | 0.213 | 37.7% | 11.5% | 30.5% | 45.3% | OF | $3,300 | OF | $3,800 | RF | $7,500 |
6 | Eric Thames | LEFT | 0.390 | 0.352 | 0.301 | 42.4% | 14.6% | 27.9% | 37.7% | 1B | $3,800 | 1B/OF | $4,600 | 1B | $8,800 |
7 | Stephen Vogt | LEFT | 0.305 | 0.301 | 0.198 | 34.5% | 7.2% | 20.3% | 38.2% | C | $2,100 | C | $3,100 | C | $6,000 |
8 | Keon Broxton | RIGHT | 0.304 | 0.289 | 0.199 | 36.0% | 7.1% | 38.5% | 46.3% | OF | $2,200 | OF | $3,300 | CF | $6,600 |
9 | Brent Suter | LEFT | 0.335 | 0.173 | 0.000 | 12.5% | 0.0% | 25.0% | 100.0% | P | $6,200 | P | $5,400 | P | $10,800 |
Elite Plays – Neil Walker
Secondary Plays – Eric Sogard, Ryan Braun, Travis Shaw, Eric Thames
Stackability – YELLOW
Pittsburgh
The Pirates draw a mediocre matchup against Brent Suter, but they likely won’t have to face him for more than four or five innings. It’s hard to really break down a matchup when we don’t know who the Brewers are going to bring out of the bullpen if Suter is limited again. There aren’t any hitters that I’m going out of my way to target here, but Jordan Luplow and Andrew McCutchen both make sense as one-off targets. Luplow is a talented young hitter that is still cheap across the industry. McCutchen has always mashed left-handed pitching and is also priced affordably on DraftKings ($3,700) and FantasyDraft ($7,200).
Projected Lineup (Splits vs. LH Pitching)
# | Player | Bats | wOBA | xwOBA | ISO | HC% | BB% | K% | GB% | FD Pos. | FD Sal. | DK Pos. | DK Sal. | FDRFT Pos. | FDRFT Sal. |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
1 | Starling Marte | RIGHT | 0.163 | 0.250 | 0.029 | 26.4% | 5.4% | 21.6% | 49.0% | OF | $3,100 | OF | $3,500 | CF | $6,900 |
2 | Jordan Luplow | RIGHT | 0.239 | 0.229 | 0.211 | 25.0% | 5.0% | 35.0% | 33.3% | OF | $2,600 | OF | $3,100 | LF | $6,000 |
3 | Andrew McCutchen | RIGHT | 0.448 | 0.405 | 0.364 | 41.1% | 15.7% | 16.4% | 32.6% | OF | $3,600 | OF | $3,700 | RF | $7,200 |
4 | David Freese | RIGHT | 0.358 | 0.355 | 0.118 | 34.2% | 14.8% | 22.1% | 59.2% | 3B | $2,900 | 3B | $3,100 | 3B | $6,000 |
5 | Jose Osuna | RIGHT | 0.327 | 0.302 | 0.202 | 31.7% | 6.0% | 12.0% | 56.1% | OF | $2,000 | 1B/OF | $3,200 | IF/OF | $6,300 |
6 | Sean Rodriguez | RIGHT | 0.377 | 0.342 | 0.217 | 51.9% | 17.5% | 33.3% | 19.2% | OF | $2,000 | 3B/OF | $3,100 | 2B | $6,000 |
7 | Elias Diaz | RIGHT | 0.277 | 0.308 | 0.081 | 36.7% | 2.6% | 18.4% | 56.7% | C | $2,500 | C | $2,900 | C | $5,700 |
8 | Jordy Mercer | RIGHT | 0.308 | 0.317 | 0.164 | 41.2% | 9.2% | 15.4% | 49.0% | SS | $2,100 | SS | $3,400 | SS | $6,800 |
9 | Jameson Taillon | RIGHT | 0.195 | 0.218 | 0.000 | 12.5% | 0.0% | 20.0% | 66.7% | P | $6,500 | P | $7,100 | P | $14,100 |
Elite Plays – None
Secondary Plays – Jordan Luplow, Andrew McCutchen, Jose Osuna (FD)
Stackability – ORANGE / YELLOW
Minnesota at NY Yankees – 7:05 PM ET
Minnesota | NY Yankees | ||||||||||||||
Ervin Santana | Jaime Garcia | ||||||||||||||
RIGHT | LEFT | ||||||||||||||
Vegas Moneyline | Vegas Over/Under | ||||||||||||||
NYY-153 | 9.0 | ||||||||||||||
Stats | wOBA | xwOBA | HC% | BB% | K% | GB% | Stats | wOBA | xwOBA | HC% | BB% | K% | GB% | ||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
SP vs. Left (2016-17) | 0.278 | 0.283 | 28.7% | 5.7% | 15.9% | 41.0% | SP vs. Left (2016-17) | 0.292 | 0.239 | 25.8% | 3.6% | 25.4% | 58.5% | ||
SP vs. Right (2016-17) | 0.304 | 0.301 | 28.7% | 9.1% | 23.1% | 41.7% | SP vs. Right (2016-17) | 0.332 | 0.341 | 31.6% | 11.2% | 16.2% | 54.6% |
Pitcher Grind Down
Ervin Santana | |||||||||
FanDuel | DraftKings | FantasyDraft | |||||||
Salary: | $8,600 | Salary: | $10,500 | Salary: | $20,400 | ||||
Salary Rank: | 4 of 14 | Salary Rank: | 2 of 14 | Salary Rank: | 2 of 14 | ||||
Stats | Starts | SIERA | ERA | K% | BB% | GB% | HC% | SC% | |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
2016 | 30 | 4.29 | 3.38 | 19.9% | 7.1% | 42.6% | 29.3% | 19.0% | |
2017 | 30 | 4.59 | 3.35 | 19.9% | 7.6% | 41.4% | 28.7% | 22.5% | |
L30 | 5 | 4.10 | 3.45 | 21.6% | 4.8% | 42.2% | 23.3% | 28.9% |
This is an important series for both teams. They are currently the two leaders in the wildcard race in the American League, but the Twins only hold a two game lead over the Angels. Meanwhile, the Yankees are up four games over the Twins and still have an outside chance of catching the Red Sox for the AL East division title. I’ve been waiting for the regression to hit Santana for quite some time now. While his BABIP has come up a bit, .241 shouldn’t be sustainable over the long run. He’s not a bad pitcher, he’s just overpriced in DFS for what he brings to the table. He pitching on the road against the Yankees and he’s the second most expensive pitcher in the slate on both DraftKings and FantasyDraft.
Quick Breakdown: Santana is overpriced and in a bad matchup on the road. He can be avoided in all formats.
Jaime Garcia | |||||||||
FanDuel | DraftKings | FantasyDraft | |||||||
Salary: | $6,600 | Salary: | $6,600 | Salary: | $13,200 | ||||
Salary Rank: | 8 of 14 | Salary Rank: | 8 of 14 | Salary Rank: | 8 of 14 | ||||
Stats | Starts | SIERA | ERA | K% | BB% | GB% | HC% | SC% | |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
2016 | 30 | 3.93 | 4.67 | 20.2% | 7.7% | 56.7% | 31.1% | 18.6% | |
2017 | 25 | 4.64 | 4.35 | 18.2% | 9.6% | 55.4% | 30.4% | 21.3% | |
L30 | 3 | 4.72 | 2.63 | 16.9% | 10.8% | 59.6% | 31.9% | 17.0% |
Garcia hasn’t been great since coming to the Yankees, but he has the revenge narrative going for him tonight. The Twins traded for him, let him make one start, and then traded him to the Yankees. While I’m sure a few days isn’t enough time to actually get acquainted in Minnesota, it probably didn’t feel great being shipped out of town. If you are looking for a cheap pitcher and you don’t want to play Dan Straily against the Mets, Garcia is probably your best bet. The Twins don’t have a lot of power outside of Brian Dozier and Garcia is listed as a sizable favorite in this one.
Quick Breakdown: Garcia doesn’t have the highest ceiling in this matchup, but five or six innings with a shot at the win isn’t out of the question.
Batter Grind Down
Minnesota
The Twins draw a mediocre matchup against Jaime Garcia. While his numbers aren’t all that impressive, he does have an elite ground ball rate (55%). This allows him to induce a lot of soft and medium contact and typically avoid getting shelled. If you are targeting any Twins’ batters tonight, make sure they hit from the right side (Garcia has allowed a .341 xwOBA to righties) and have a high fly-ball rate.
Projected Lineup (Splits vs. LH Pitching)
# | Player | Bats | wOBA | xwOBA | ISO | HC% | BB% | K% | GB% | FD Pos. | FD Sal. | DK Pos. | DK Sal. | FDRFT Pos. | FDRFT Sal. |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
1 | Brian Dozier | RIGHT | 0.433 | 0.387 | 0.305 | 38.6% | 13.9% | 17.9% | 42.6% | 2B | $3,900 | 2B | $5,000 | 2B | $9,900 |
2 | Joe Mauer | LEFT | 0.345 | 0.320 | 0.080 | 21.4% | 7.9% | 12.6% | 57.1% | 1B | $3,500 | 1B | $4,000 | 1B | $7,600 |
3 | Jorge Polanco | SWITCH | 0.288 | 0.271 | 0.151 | 30.5% | 4.5% | 14.0% | 35.2% | SS | $3,300 | SS | $3,800 | SS | $7,600 |
4 | Eduardo Escobar | SWITCH | 0.314 | 0.345 | 0.153 | 27.7% | 8.5% | 17.0% | 33.9% | 3B | $3,200 | 3B/SS | $4,000 | SS | $7,800 |
5 | Byron Buxton | RIGHT | 0.366 | 0.313 | 0.157 | 30.2% | 12.0% | 23.3% | 37.2% | OF | $3,100 | OF | $4,600 | CF | $8,800 |
6 | Eddie Rosario | LEFT | 0.289 | 0.251 | 0.116 | 28.7% | 2.5% | 19.7% | 53.3% | OF | $4,100 | OF | $4,800 | LF | $9,300 |
7 | Kennys Vargas | SWITCH | 0.268 | 0.245 | 0.133 | 23.1% | 11.6% | 31.9% | 51.3% | 1B | $3,000 | 1B | $3,700 | 1B | $7,200 |
8 | Chris Gimenez | RIGHT | 0.303 | 0.327 | 0.167 | 38.0% | 11.9% | 27.4% | 35.4% | C | $2,400 | C | $3,100 | C | $6,000 |
9 | Robbie Grossman | SWITCH | 0.344 | 0.362 | 0.093 | 37.8% | 19.4% | 13.4% | 42.0% | OF | $2,800 | OF | $3,700 | LF | $7,200 |
Elite Plays – Brian Dozier (GPP)
Secondary Plays – Brian Dozier (Cash), Jorge Polanco, Eduardo Escobar, Byron Buxton
Stackability – ORANGE / YELLOW
NY Yankees
Ervin Santana isn’t a pitcher that I love to pick on. He has a league-average strikeout rate, a low hard contact rate (29%), and he has held both left and right-handed hitters under a .305 xwOBA this season. This doesn’t exactly look like an ideal pitcher to stack against. Santana rarely gets blown up and he seems to have the baseball gods on his side with such a low BABIP (.241) and such a high left on-base percentage (78%). I’m certainly fine using Brett Gardner, Gary Sanchez, Aaron Judge, and Didi Gregorius, but I won’t be stacking the Yankees in this slate.
Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)
# | Player | Bats | wOBA | xwOBA | ISO | HC% | BB% | K% | GB% | FD Pos. | FD Sal. | DK Pos. | DK Sal. | FDRFT Pos. | FDRFT Sal. |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
1 | Brett Gardner | LEFT | 0.354 | 0.329 | 0.190 | 32.1% | 11.1% | 18.6% | 40.9% | OF | $3,600 | OF | $4,500 | LF | $8,700 |
2 | Chase Headley | SWITCH | 0.349 | 0.325 | 0.135 | 32.3% | 12.4% | 23.4% | 42.8% | 1B | $4,000 | 1B/3B | $3,700 | 3B | $7,200 |
3 | Gary Sanchez | RIGHT | 0.372 | 0.372 | 0.254 | 36.0% | 6.9% | 23.5% | 43.8% | C | $3,700 | C | $4,900 | C | $9,600 |
4 | Aaron Judge | RIGHT | 0.419 | 0.424 | 0.320 | 43.8% | 16.6% | 31.8% | 36.0% | OF | $4,300 | OF | $5,400 | RF | $10,500 |
5 | Didi Gregorius | LEFT | 0.366 | 0.286 | 0.241 | 25.8% | 4.8% | 11.4% | 38.2% | SS | $3,600 | SS | $4,800 | SS | $9,300 |
6 | Starlin Castro | RIGHT | 0.329 | 0.295 | 0.164 | 29.3% | 3.1% | 20.5% | 49.2% | 2B | $2,800 | 2B | $3,400 | 2B | $6,600 |
7 | Jacoby Ellsbury | LEFT | 0.352 | 0.345 | 0.155 | 26.8% | 11.8% | 11.4% | 45.2% | OF | $3,800 | OF | $4,100 | CF | $8,000 |
8 | Todd Frazier | RIGHT | 0.328 | 0.346 | 0.184 | 30.6% | 14.4% | 22.3% | 37.1% | 3B | $3,900 | 3B | $4,000 | 3B | $7,600 |
9 | Greg Bird | LEFT | 0.236 | 0.294 | 0.128 | 34.9% | 11.1% | 28.7% | 30.6% | 1B | $2,700 | 1B | $3,300 | 1B | $6,400 |
Elite Plays – Gary Sanchez
Secondary Plays – Brett Gardner, Aaron Judge, Didi Gregorius
Stackability – YELLOW
NY Mets at Miami – 7:10 PM ET
NY Mets | Miami | ||||||||||||||
Matt Harvey | Dan Straily | ||||||||||||||
RIGHT | RIGHT | ||||||||||||||
Vegas Moneyline | Vegas Over/Under | ||||||||||||||
MIA-160 | 8.5 | ||||||||||||||
Stats | wOBA | xwOBA | HC% | BB% | K% | GB% | Stats | wOBA | xwOBA | HC% | BB% | K% | GB% | ||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
SP vs. Left (2016-17) | 0.394 | 0.405 | 36.0% | 12.6% | 14.9% | 34.7% | SP vs. Left (2016-17) | 0.310 | 0.283 | 28.5% | 7.9% | 21.8% | 33.5% | ||
SP vs. Right (2016-17) | 0.328 | 0.325 | 31.4% | 9.3% | 17.6% | 51.1% | SP vs. Right (2016-17) | 0.342 | 0.307 | 35.9% | 6.0% | 20.9% | 33.5% |
Pitcher Grind Down
Matt Harvey | |||||||||
FanDuel | DraftKings | FantasyDraft | |||||||
Salary: | $5,500 | Salary: | $5,100 | Salary: | $10,200 | ||||
Salary Rank: | 13 of 14 | Salary Rank: | 14 of 14 | Salary Rank: | 14 of 14 | ||||
Stats | Starts | SIERA | ERA | K% | BB% | GB% | HC% | SC% | |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
2016 | 17 | 4.31 | 4.86 | 18.9% | 6.2% | 40.8% | 30.3% | 24.3% | |
2017 | 16 | 5.35 | 6.14 | 16.4% | 10.9% | 43.4% | 33.6% | 24.4% | |
L30 | 3 | 5.90 | 12.19 | 10.5% | 8.8% | 33.3% | 27.3% | 20.5% |
Harvey might be the worst pitcher in the slate tonight. In 16 starts this season, he has a 5.35 SIERA, an 11% walk rate, and a strikeout rate of only 16%. He has struggled in his last three starts and now has to go on the road to face the Marlins. I obviously don’t set lines for a living, but if I did, I would have favored the Marlins a bit more than -160. Harvey is not a wagon that you want to hitch your horse to.
Quick Breakdown: I’m all about the Marlins in this one. I will be avoiding all things Mets.
Dan Straily | |||||||||
FanDuel | DraftKings | FantasyDraft | |||||||
Salary: | $6,900 | Salary: | $7,500 | Salary: | $14,800 | ||||
Salary Rank: | 7 of 14 | Salary Rank: | 6 of 14 | Salary Rank: | 6 of 14 | ||||
Stats | Starts | SIERA | ERA | K% | BB% | GB% | HC% | SC% | |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
2016 | 31 | 4.67 | 3.76 | 20.5% | 9.2% | 32.0% | 32.2% | 14.8% | |
2017 | 30 | 4.48 | 4.24 | 21.3% | 7.0% | 33.5% | 32.2% | 19.8% | |
L30 | 5 | 4.77 | 6.43 | 20.9% | 7.8% | 26.1% | 24.2% | 19.8% |
Straily hasn’t been in great form recently, but he is my second favorite pitcher in the slate. Yes, you heard that correctly. He’s obviously not the most reliable pitcher around, but he has a high fly-ball rate, which bodes well for this ballpark (tough to hit home runs here). He draws a favorable matchup against the Mets, who basically have no firepower in their lineup. If you look at their projected starters, only three batters have an xwOBA over .300 against right-handed pitching this season. Straily has decent strikeout upside, he is dirt cheap across the industry, and he’s a sizable home favorite.
Quick Breakdown: September baseball is strange. It’s shaping up to be a Dan Straily chalk night, but I’m on board.
Batter Grind Down
NY Mets
The best way to beat Dan Straily is with power. Unfortunately, the Mets’ lineup is short of that at this point in time. To make matters worse, this is one of the worst ballparks for home run production. I’m not interested in the Mets’ offense tonight. On the season, Straily has held both left and right-handed hitters under a .310 xwOBA.
Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)
# | Player | Bats | wOBA | xwOBA | ISO | HC% | BB% | K% | GB% | FD Pos. | FD Sal. | DK Pos. | DK Sal. | FDRFT Pos. | FDRFT Sal. |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
1 | Jose Reyes | SWITCH | 0.290 | 0.282 | 0.142 | 26.9% | 9.1% | 13.7% | 38.6% | SS | $4,000 | 3B/SS | $4,400 | SS | $8,700 |
2 | Brandon Nimmo | LEFT | 0.381 | 0.356 | 0.163 | 35.7% | 17.1% | 24.4% | 44.3% | OF | $3,000 | OF | $3,400 | LF | $6,800 |
3 | Asdrubal Cabrera | SWITCH | 0.321 | 0.332 | 0.182 | 37.3% | 9.5% | 16.5% | 41.1% | 3B | $3,700 | 2B/SS | $3,800 | SS | $7,600 |
4 | Dominic Smith | LEFT | 0.331 | 0.336 | 0.253 | 37.7% | 5.7% | 20.8% | 50.6% | 1B | $3,500 | 1B | $3,300 | 1B | $6,600 |
5 | Travis d’Arnaud | RIGHT | 0.266 | 0.299 | 0.158 | 33.7% | 4.3% | 14.8% | 40.0% | C | $2,800 | C | $3,300 | C | $6,400 |
6 | Amed Rosario | RIGHT | 0.273 | 0.230 | 0.121 | 23.9% | 1.9% | 31.1% | 47.8% | SS | $2,900 | SS | $3,400 | SS | $6,600 |
7 | Norichika Aoki | LEFT | 0.329 | 0.293 | 0.148 | 23.6% | 6.9% | 12.4% | 55.1% | OF | $2,900 | OF | $3,500 | LF | $6,900 |
8 | Juan Lagares | RIGHT | 0.298 | 0.257 | 0.131 | 29.8% | 5.1% | 20.5% | 52.8% | OF | $2,700 | OF | $2,900 | CF | $5,700 |
9 | Matt Harvey | RIGHT | 0.083 | 0.191 | 0.000 | 18.8% | 0.0% | 23.8% | 53.8% | P | $5,500 | P | $5,100 | P | $10,200 |
Elite Plays – None
Secondary Plays – None
Stackability – RED
Miami
Anytime Matt Harvey takes the mound, there should be a little voice inside your head that tells you to play the left-handed hitters against him. If you do not have that voice, don’t worry, we are having a one day special here on RotoGrinders. We are running a buy-one get-one free promotion. Two voices for the price of one. All kidding aside, we should be loading up on the lefties here, as Harvey has allowed a .405 xwOBA, a 36% hard contact rate, and a 13% walk rate to batters from the left side of the plate this season. A full Marlins’ stack is also viable, as Harvey isn’t particularly good against right-handed hitters either.
Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)
# | Player | Bats | wOBA | xwOBA | ISO | HC% | BB% | K% | GB% | FD Pos. | FD Sal. | DK Pos. | DK Sal. | FDRFT Pos. | FDRFT Sal. |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
1 | Dee Gordon | LEFT | 0.319 | 0.259 | 0.072 | 17.9% | 5.0% | 14.0% | 55.5% | 2B | $4,100 | 2B | $4,200 | 2B | $8,000 |
2 | Giancarlo Stanton | RIGHT | 0.391 | 0.382 | 0.326 | 37.7% | 10.6% | 25.9% | 43.6% | OF | $4,000 | OF | $5,300 | RF | $10,400 |
3 | Christian Yelich | LEFT | 0.359 | 0.365 | 0.169 | 37.5% | 12.4% | 19.9% | 54.5% | OF | $4,000 | OF | $4,300 | CF | $8,400 |
4 | Marcell Ozuna | RIGHT | 0.384 | 0.360 | 0.259 | 40.3% | 8.7% | 22.8% | 44.7% | OF | $3,400 | OF | $4,700 | LF | $9,300 |
5 | Justin Bour | LEFT | 0.370 | 0.393 | 0.233 | 43.2% | 11.2% | 20.7% | 40.2% | 1B | $3,500 | 1B | $4,400 | 1B | $8,700 |
6 | J.T. Realmuto | RIGHT | 0.316 | 0.320 | 0.161 | 32.4% | 4.9% | 18.4% | 49.8% | C | $3,200 | C | $4,200 | C | $8,000 |
7 | Derek Dietrich | LEFT | 0.306 | 0.312 | 0.185 | 33.7% | 7.1% | 21.0% | 35.4% | 3B | $3,100 | 3B | $3,800 | 3B | $7,600 |
8 | Mike Aviles | RIGHT | 0.287 | 0.243 | 0.114 | 13.9% | 9.8% | 17.6% | 48.6% | SS | $2,000 | 2B/OF | $2,300 | IF/OF | $4,500 |
9 | Dan Straily | RIGHT | 0.061 | 0.094 | 0.000 | 14.3% | 2.2% | 52.2% | 86.7% | P | $6,900 | P | $7,500 | P | $14,800 |