MLB Grind Down: Monday, September 18th

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The RotoGrinders MLB Grind Down will give you an in-depth analysis into the upcoming MLB schedule. This article will break down the numbers for every single game and give you analysis on which trends you can exploit. While matchups are a major factor in daily fantasy baseball, there are plenty of other factors to consider such as injuries, weather, and salaries.

The analysis should point you in the right direction, but it is still up to you to decipher the information and make your own selections. No sport has more variance than baseball. The best choice is not always the right choice but following the trends will win you money over time.

Note: As always, if you want to try a new DFS site, be sure to click through a RotoGrinders link and use our DraftKings promo code, FanDuel promo code, and FantasyDraft promo code to receive the best perks in the industry.


Stackability Rating System:

GREEN – A viable full stack in cash games and GPPs.
YELLOW – A viable mini-stack in cash games and full stack in GPPs.
ORANGE – A viable stack in large field GPPs.
RED – Not a recommended stack for cash games or GPPs.


Implied Run Totals

Boston at Baltimore – 7:05 PM ET

Boston Baltimore
Article Image Doug Fister Article Image Dylan Bundy
RIGHT RIGHT
Vegas Moneyline Vegas Over/Under
BAL-120 9.0
Stats wOBA xwOBA HC% BB% K% GB% Stats wOBA xwOBA HC% BB% K% GB%
SP vs. Left (2016-17) 0.360 0.341 38.3% 11.9% 19.2% 49.1% SP vs. Left (2016-17) 0.325 0.337 39.2% 8.1% 17.1% 30.8%
SP vs. Right (2016-17) 0.229 0.267 25.0% 7.1% 22.6% 52.3% SP vs. Right (2016-17) 0.290 0.293 32.5% 6.7% 26.6% 35.1%

Pitcher Grind Down

Doug Fister
Article Image FanDuel DraftKings FantasyDraft
Salary: $7,800 Salary: $8,400 Salary: $16,400
Salary Rank: 5 of 14 Salary Rank: 5 of 14 Salary Rank: 5 of 14
Stats Starts SIERA ERA K% BB% GB% HC% SC%
2016 32 4.97 4.64 14.8% 8.0% 45.3% 31.5% 19.7%
2017 12 4.51 4.40 20.8% 9.6% 50.7% 32.0% 18.0%
L30 5 3.60 2.91 23.7% 6.9% 60.7% 25.6% 24.4%

Fister has pitched well in his last five starts, posting a 3.60 SIERA with a strikeout rate of 24% and a walk rate of 7%. What stands out the most during that stretch is his 61% ground ball rate. The best time to target Fister is against a right-handed heavy offense, since he has held righties to a .267 xwOBA with a 52% ground ball rate this season. Tonight’s matchup against the Orioles should bode well for him, as Baltimore will likely roll out a lineup with seven or eight right-handed hitters.

Quick Breakdown: Fister isn’t a pitcher we should rely in cash games, but he has some appeal as a low-owned tournament play.

Dylan Bundy
Article Image FanDuel DraftKings FantasyDraft
Salary: $8,900 Salary: $9,100 Salary: $17,700
Salary Rank: 3 of 14 Salary Rank: 4 of 14 Salary Rank: 4 of 14
Stats Starts SIERA ERA K% BB% GB% HC% SC%
2016 14 4.23 4.02 21.9% 8.9% 35.9% 28.0% 23.6%
2017 27 4.42 4.03 22.1% 7.4% 32.9% 35.9% 17.8%
L30 4 3.19 3.24 32.4% 6.9% 36.7% 36.1% 18.0%

Bundy has also been in excellent form over the last month of play, posting a 3.19 SIERA with a strikeout rate of 32% and a walk rate of 7%. His swinging strike rate has gone up drastically in his last six starts – 15%, 16%, 21%, 19%, 11%, 15%. The Red Sox have a low strikeout rate as a team, but Bundy’s stuff has been electric recently. Sometimes I’m willing to bet on risk over matchup, especially in tournaments.

Quick Breakdown: Bundy isn’t the safest cash game option, but he’s viable as a low owned play in tournaments.

Batter Grind Down

Boston

The Red Sox draw a fairly difficult matchup against Dylan Bundy, who has had his best stretch of the season in his last six starts. He’s generating a lot of swings and misses and he has good command. He has struggled a bit against left-handed hitters this year, allowing a .337 xwOBA with a 39% hard contact rate, but he has been tough on righties. Andrew Benintendi and Mitch Moreland are both viable one-off candidates, but the rest of the Red Sox hitters can be avoided.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

# Player Bats wOBA xwOBA ISO HC% BB% K% GB% FD Pos. FD Sal. DK Pos. DK Sal. FDRFT Pos. FDRFT Sal.
1 Xander Bogaerts RIGHT 0.315 0.270 0.132 30.5% 7.9% 19.1% 46.7% SS $3,400 SS $4,200 SS $8,100
2 Dustin Pedroia RIGHT 0.330 0.313 0.098 25.6% 9.1% 10.7% 47.9% 2B $3,600 2B $4,400 2B $8,700
3 Andrew Benintendi LEFT 0.350 0.344 0.182 37.3% 9.4% 16.4% 37.0% OF $4,300 OF $4,900 LF $9,600
4 Mookie Betts RIGHT 0.326 0.331 0.185 35.2% 9.6% 11.5% 39.5% OF $4,600 OF $5,200 RF $10,000
5 Mitch Moreland LEFT 0.334 0.381 0.206 39.9% 9.9% 20.8% 41.0% 1B $3,300 1B $3,800 1B $7,500
6 Rafael Devers LEFT 0.294 0.287 0.180 32.7% 7.6% 22.2% 50.5% 3B $3,400 3B $3,600 3B $7,200
7 Brock Holt LEFT 0.221 0.240 0.041 22.5% 12.4% 23.9% 56.3% 3B $2,000 2B/OF $2,400 3B $4,800
8 Sandy Leon SWITCH 0.266 0.266 0.119 31.9% 7.8% 26.2% 36.6% C $2,300 C $2,700 C $5,400
9 Jackie Bradley Jr. LEFT 0.318 0.324 0.180 37.7% 8.2% 24.5% 43.1% OF $3,400 OF $3,400 CF $6,600

Elite Plays – None

Secondary Plays – Andrew Benintendi, Mitch Moreland

Stackability – ORANGE

Baltimore

This is a really bad matchup for the Orioles. As mentioned above, Doug Fister has held right-handed hitters to a .267 xwOBA, a 25% hard contact rate, and a 52% ground ball rate. His strikeout rate against righties is at 23%, which is a lot higher than you would think for a pitcher that has historically had a low k-rate. Chris Davis is my favorite target here and his salary is discounted on both DraftKings ($3,000) and FantasyDraft ($6,000). The only right-handed batter on my radar here is Manny Machado, who has two home runs against Fister in only 12 career plate appearances.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

# Player Bats wOBA xwOBA ISO HC% BB% K% GB% FD Pos. FD Sal. DK Pos. DK Sal. FDRFT Pos. FDRFT Sal.
1 Tim Beckham RIGHT 0.338 0.313 0.180 39.7% 5.5% 29.0% 48.1% SS $3,300 SS $3,800 SS $7,600
2 Manny Machado RIGHT 0.332 0.359 0.212 37.1% 7.9% 16.7% 43.4% 3B $3,500 3B $4,800 3B $9,200
3 Jonathan Schoop RIGHT 0.351 0.309 0.196 33.8% 4.1% 19.9% 41.6% 2B $3,100 2B $3,900 2B $7,800
4 Adam Jones RIGHT 0.339 0.310 0.193 30.6% 3.3% 17.7% 44.3% OF $3,300 OF $3,800 CF $7,500
5 Trey Mancini RIGHT 0.373 0.351 0.244 35.6% 6.3% 22.3% 52.4% OF $3,400 1B/OF $3,600 IF/OF $7,200
6 Mark Trumbo RIGHT 0.288 0.299 0.161 30.5% 7.5% 24.9% 42.7% OF $2,900 OF $3,500 IF/OF $6,800
7 Chris Davis LEFT 0.322 0.331 0.247 44.1% 12.1% 36.1% 37.3% 1B $3,200 1B $3,000 IF/OF $6,000
8 Welington Castillo RIGHT 0.325 0.329 0.206 37.0% 5.6% 25.8% 42.2% C $2,900 C $3,300 C $6,600
9 Seth Smith LEFT 0.332 0.346 0.172 35.8% 9.9% 20.9% 44.4% OF $2,000 OF $2,600 LF $5,100

Elite Plays – None

Secondary Plays – Manny Machado, Chris Davis

Stackability – ORANGE


LA Dodgers at Philadelphia – 7:05 PM ET

LA Dodgers Philadelphia
Article Image Clayton Kershaw Article Image Nick Pivetta
LEFT RIGHT
Vegas Moneyline Vegas Over/Under
LAD-280 7.5
Stats wOBA xwOBA HC% BB% K% GB% Stats wOBA xwOBA HC% BB% K% GB%
SP vs. Left (2016-17) 0.315 0.284 29.6% 4.0% 25.6% 45.9% SP vs. Left (2016-17) 0.322 0.300 29.6% 10.5% 24.2% 43.1%
SP vs. Right (2016-17) 0.234 0.240 27.0% 4.8% 32.2% 47.8% SP vs. Right (2016-17) 0.415 0.363 43.1% 8.6% 22.8% 43.8%

Pitcher Grind Down

Clayton Kershaw
Article Image FanDuel DraftKings FantasyDraft
Salary: $12,100 Salary: $13,700 Salary: $26,700
Salary Rank: 1 of 14 Salary Rank: 1 of 14 Salary Rank: 1 of 14
Stats Starts SIERA ERA K% BB% GB% HC% SC%
2016 21 2.41 1.69 31.6% 2.0% 49.4% 28.4% 20.3%
2017 24 2.97 2.12 30.9% 4.6% 47.4% 27.6% 24.5%
L30 3 3.26 2.87 29.4% 5.9% 47.7% 22.7% 25.0%

Kershaw has struggled a bit since coming back from injury. He has posted an xFIP above 4.00 in each of his last two starts and his swinging strike rate in those outings was 12%, which is considerably lower than his season average (14%). If the Dodgers want to make it to the World Series, they need their ace to be at the top of his game. Kershaw’s recent form isn’t ideal, but it’s still better than 95% of pitchers in baseball. He is clearly the top pitching option tonight, as he takes on the Phillies, who are ranked 24th in team wOBA against left-handed pitching this season.

Quick Breakdown: You can make a case to fade Kershaw in tournaments, but he’s clearly the top play in the slate and should be locked into your cash game lineups.

Nick Pivetta
Article Image FanDuel DraftKings FantasyDraft
Salary: $5,500 Salary: $6,200 Salary: $12,400
Salary Rank: 13 of 14 Salary Rank: 9 of 14 Salary Rank: 9 of 14
Stats Starts SIERA ERA K% BB% GB% HC% SC%
2017 23 4.36 6.75 23.5% 9.5% 43.5% 36.7% 16.6%
L30 5 4.09 8.87 20.4% 8.3% 59.2% 29.9% 19.5%

Pivetta has not pitched well in his first 23 major league starts, posting a 6.75 ERA. His peripheral statistics suggest some improvement (4.36 SIERA with a strikeout rate of 24%), but I want to see him string together a couple of quality starts before considering him as a play in DFS. He is the largest underdog in the slate and he draws a difficult matchup against the Dodgers. If you look at their projected lineup below, Los Angeles has eight batters with an xwOBA over .320 against right-handed pitching this season. To put that into context, the most recent Padres’ lineup had zero hitters that matched that description.

Quick Breakdown: As a large underdog against a potent offense, Pivetta is an easy fade in all formats.

Batter Grind Down

LA Dodgers

The Dodgers draw one of the best matchups in the slate. They are facing a rookie pitcher in a home run-friendly ballpark. On the season, Nick Pivetta has really struggled against right-handed hitters, allowing a .363 xwOBA and a 43% hard contact rate. He has been tougher on lefties, but we can still target the likes of Corey Seager and Cody Bellinger with confidence (they both have a .365+ xwOBA and a 44%+ hard contact rate against righties). The Dodgers are a viable stack in both cash games and tournaments.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

# Player Bats wOBA xwOBA ISO HC% BB% K% GB% FD Pos. FD Sal. DK Pos. DK Sal. FDRFT Pos. FDRFT Sal.
1 Chris Taylor RIGHT 0.360 0.334 0.210 34.5% 9.1% 25.5% 41.7% OF $3,200 2B/OF $3,500 2B $6,900
2 Corey Seager LEFT 0.360 0.386 0.172 44.7% 12.2% 20.9% 41.2% SS $3,100 SS $4,300 SS $8,400
3 Justin Turner RIGHT 0.364 0.369 0.157 36.2% 10.4% 11.3% 32.0% 3B $4,000 3B $4,400 3B $8,400
4 Cody Bellinger LEFT 0.392 0.368 0.345 44.6% 13.0% 26.6% 35.9% 1B $4,600 1B/OF $5,100 IF/OF $10,000
5 Yasiel Puig RIGHT 0.377 0.355 0.270 34.9% 9.3% 19.5% 44.7% OF $3,500 OF $4,100 RF $8,100
6 Curtis Granderson LEFT 0.333 0.332 0.241 33.8% 15.4% 23.3% 30.9% OF $2,500 OF $3,400 CF $6,800
7 Austin Barnes RIGHT 0.424 0.358 0.135 23.6% 17.3% 15.5% 47.2% C $2,200 C $3,600 C $7,200
8 Chase Utley LEFT 0.318 0.323 0.167 37.4% 9.6% 15.6% 44.5% 2B $2,600 2B $2,800 2B $5,400
9 Clayton Kershaw LEFT 0.244 0.251 0.029 11.5% 10.3% 23.1% 63.6% P $12,100 P $13,700 P $26,700

Elite Plays – Chris Taylor, Corey Seager, Justin Turner, Cody Bellinger (GPP), Yasiel Puig

Secondary Plays – Cody Bellinger (Cash), Curtis Granderson, Austin Barnes

Stackability – GREEN

Philadelphia

The Phillies draw the worst matchup in the slate and it’s not even close. The next best pitcher after Clayton Kershaw is Patrick Corbin and the talent gap between these two southpaws is massive. In addition to the elite strikeout rate (30%), Kershaw has held both left and right-handed hitters under a .285 xwOBA and under a 30% hard contact rate this season. I’m as big of a Rhys Hoskins fan as there is and even I will be fading him tonight.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. LH Pitching)

# Player Bats wOBA xwOBA ISO HC% BB% K% GB% FD Pos. FD Sal. DK Pos. DK Sal. FDRFT Pos. FDRFT Sal.
1 Odubel Herrera LEFT 0.374 0.332 0.206 34.6% 3.5% 22.4% 52.4% OF $3,000 OF $3,700 IF/OF $7,200
2 Freddy Galvis SWITCH 0.277 0.266 0.104 22.9% 3.3% 11.6% 38.7% SS $2,200 SS $2,900 SS $5,700
3 Aaron Altherr RIGHT 0.343 0.335 0.255 38.2% 11.3% 17.0% 47.4% OF $2,000 OF $3,600 LF $7,200
4 Rhys Hoskins RIGHT 0.505 0.523 0.643 50.0% 27.5% 15.0% 22.7% OF $3,000 1B/OF $4,500 1B $8,700
5 Nick Williams LEFT 0.352 0.286 0.164 23.4% 4.1% 27.4% 57.4% OF $2,500 OF $3,400 LF $6,800
6 Maikel Franco RIGHT 0.282 0.290 0.167 34.2% 7.9% 14.5% 50.4% 3B $2,000 3B $3,300 3B $6,600
7 Jorge Alfaro RIGHT 0.190 0.240 0.043 14.3% 8.0% 36.0% 57.1% C $2,000 C $3,200 C $6,400
8 J.P. Crawford LEFT 0.322 0.328 0.100 0.0% 23.1% 23.1% 14.3% SS $2,000 3B/SS $2,600 SS $5,200
9 Nick Pivetta RIGHT 0.000 0.076 0.000 12.5% 0.0% 42.9% 75.0% P $5,500 P $6,200 P $12,400

Elite Plays – None

Secondary Plays – None

Stackability – RED


Milwaukee at Pittsburgh – 7:05 PM ET

Milwaukee Pittsburgh
Article Image Brent Suter Article Image Jameson Taillon
LEFT RIGHT
Vegas Moneyline Vegas Over/Under
PIT-110 8.5
Stats wOBA xwOBA HC% BB% K% GB% Stats wOBA xwOBA HC% BB% K% GB%
SP vs. Left (2016-17) 0.256 0.302 33.3% 9.0% 17.9% 45.8% SP vs. Left (2016-17) 0.377 0.345 28.9% 10.8% 14.7% 52.0%
SP vs. Right (2016-17) 0.322 0.308 28.8% 7.1% 19.9% 45.0% SP vs. Right (2016-17) 0.324 0.266 31.4% 6.2% 26.3% 47.3%

Pitcher Grind Down

Brent Suter
Article Image FanDuel DraftKings FantasyDraft
Salary: $6,200 Salary: $5,400 Salary: $10,800
Salary Rank: 10 of 14 Salary Rank: 12 of 14 Salary Rank: 11 of 14
Stats Starts SIERA ERA K% BB% GB% HC% SC%
2016 2 4.33 3.32 16.5% 5.5% 43.3% 34.3% 22.9%
2017 11 4.45 3.66 19.4% 7.6% 45.2% 29.9% 22.9%
L30 2 4.94 2.57 16.7% 10.0% 42.9% 31.8% 40.9%

Suter only threw 50 pitches in his last start. While the Brewers will likely stretch him out a bit tonight, he’s still going to be a on pitch count. We have a pitcher with limited upside to begin with that is going to be on a pitch count and that is facing a Pirates’ offense that doesn’t strikeout often. This is not a great spot for Suter, even though we typically like to target pitchers in this ballpark.

Quick Breakdown: There are too many red flags for Suter to deserve consideration tonight.

Jameson Taillon
Article Image FanDuel DraftKings FantasyDraft
Salary: $6,500 Salary: $7,100 Salary: $14,100
Salary Rank: 9 of 14 Salary Rank: 7 of 14 Salary Rank: 7 of 14
Stats Starts SIERA ERA K% BB% GB% HC% SC%
2016 18 3.61 3.38 20.3% 4.1% 52.4% 33.2% 17.3%
2017 22 4.26 4.78 21.1% 8.3% 49.6% 30.2% 23.4%
L30 4 5.64 5.49 13.0% 12.0% 53.7% 29.0% 23.2%

The Pirates skipped Taillon’s last start after he gave up six earned runs to the Cubs on 11 hits nearly two weeks ago. We can look at this in one of two ways. Either the rest will do him some good or he will have spent the entire time thinking about how putrid he was in his last start. The Brewers used to be an offense that we could pick on with right-handed pitchers, but that’s no longer the case. After a few acquisitions, Milwaukee has the ability to roll out five or six left-handed hitters.

Quick Breakdown: Taillon is cheap and pitching at home, but his recent form is concerning. He’s a deep GPP play at best tonight.

Batter Grind Down

Milwaukee

The Brewers see a negative ballpark shift playing in Pittsburgh, but they draw a decent matchup against Jameson Taillon, who has been in awful form recently. In his last four outings, Taillon has a 13% strikeout rate, a 12% walk rate, and a 5.64 SIERA. When the Brewers aren’t striking out, they actually have quite a bit of power in their lineup. Each of the first six hitters in their projected lineup has an xwOBA of at least .325 against right-handed pitching this season.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

# Player Bats wOBA xwOBA ISO HC% BB% K% GB% FD Pos. FD Sal. DK Pos. DK Sal. FDRFT Pos. FDRFT Sal.
1 Eric Sogard LEFT 0.354 0.347 0.109 25.2% 16.1% 11.2% 41.9% 2B $2,400 2B/SS $3,400 2B $6,600
2 Neil Walker SWITCH 0.366 0.356 0.217 33.6% 11.4% 15.9% 36.8% 2B $3,200 2B $3,700 2B $7,200
3 Ryan Braun RIGHT 0.347 0.329 0.217 37.2% 7.6% 21.2% 48.2% OF $3,700 OF $4,100 LF $8,000
4 Travis Shaw LEFT 0.376 0.361 0.261 39.9% 10.9% 21.8% 42.0% 3B $3,300 3B $4,300 3B $8,400
5 Domingo Santana RIGHT 0.365 0.337 0.213 37.7% 11.5% 30.5% 45.3% OF $3,300 OF $3,800 RF $7,500
6 Eric Thames LEFT 0.390 0.352 0.301 42.4% 14.6% 27.9% 37.7% 1B $3,800 1B/OF $4,600 1B $8,800
7 Stephen Vogt LEFT 0.305 0.301 0.198 34.5% 7.2% 20.3% 38.2% C $2,100 C $3,100 C $6,000
8 Keon Broxton RIGHT 0.304 0.289 0.199 36.0% 7.1% 38.5% 46.3% OF $2,200 OF $3,300 CF $6,600
9 Brent Suter LEFT 0.335 0.173 0.000 12.5% 0.0% 25.0% 100.0% P $6,200 P $5,400 P $10,800

Elite Plays – Neil Walker

Secondary Plays – Eric Sogard, Ryan Braun, Travis Shaw, Eric Thames

Stackability – YELLOW

Pittsburgh

The Pirates draw a mediocre matchup against Brent Suter, but they likely won’t have to face him for more than four or five innings. It’s hard to really break down a matchup when we don’t know who the Brewers are going to bring out of the bullpen if Suter is limited again. There aren’t any hitters that I’m going out of my way to target here, but Jordan Luplow and Andrew McCutchen both make sense as one-off targets. Luplow is a talented young hitter that is still cheap across the industry. McCutchen has always mashed left-handed pitching and is also priced affordably on DraftKings ($3,700) and FantasyDraft ($7,200).

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. LH Pitching)

# Player Bats wOBA xwOBA ISO HC% BB% K% GB% FD Pos. FD Sal. DK Pos. DK Sal. FDRFT Pos. FDRFT Sal.
1 Starling Marte RIGHT 0.163 0.250 0.029 26.4% 5.4% 21.6% 49.0% OF $3,100 OF $3,500 CF $6,900
2 Jordan Luplow RIGHT 0.239 0.229 0.211 25.0% 5.0% 35.0% 33.3% OF $2,600 OF $3,100 LF $6,000
3 Andrew McCutchen RIGHT 0.448 0.405 0.364 41.1% 15.7% 16.4% 32.6% OF $3,600 OF $3,700 RF $7,200
4 David Freese RIGHT 0.358 0.355 0.118 34.2% 14.8% 22.1% 59.2% 3B $2,900 3B $3,100 3B $6,000
5 Jose Osuna RIGHT 0.327 0.302 0.202 31.7% 6.0% 12.0% 56.1% OF $2,000 1B/OF $3,200 IF/OF $6,300
6 Sean Rodriguez RIGHT 0.377 0.342 0.217 51.9% 17.5% 33.3% 19.2% OF $2,000 3B/OF $3,100 2B $6,000
7 Elias Diaz RIGHT 0.277 0.308 0.081 36.7% 2.6% 18.4% 56.7% C $2,500 C $2,900 C $5,700
8 Jordy Mercer RIGHT 0.308 0.317 0.164 41.2% 9.2% 15.4% 49.0% SS $2,100 SS $3,400 SS $6,800
9 Jameson Taillon RIGHT 0.195 0.218 0.000 12.5% 0.0% 20.0% 66.7% P $6,500 P $7,100 P $14,100

Elite Plays – None

Secondary Plays – Jordan Luplow, Andrew McCutchen, Jose Osuna (FD)

Stackability – ORANGE / YELLOW


Minnesota at NY Yankees – 7:05 PM ET

Minnesota NY Yankees
Article Image Ervin Santana Article Image Jaime Garcia
RIGHT LEFT
Vegas Moneyline Vegas Over/Under
NYY-153 9.0
Stats wOBA xwOBA HC% BB% K% GB% Stats wOBA xwOBA HC% BB% K% GB%
SP vs. Left (2016-17) 0.278 0.283 28.7% 5.7% 15.9% 41.0% SP vs. Left (2016-17) 0.292 0.239 25.8% 3.6% 25.4% 58.5%
SP vs. Right (2016-17) 0.304 0.301 28.7% 9.1% 23.1% 41.7% SP vs. Right (2016-17) 0.332 0.341 31.6% 11.2% 16.2% 54.6%

Pitcher Grind Down

Ervin Santana
Article Image FanDuel DraftKings FantasyDraft
Salary: $8,600 Salary: $10,500 Salary: $20,400
Salary Rank: 4 of 14 Salary Rank: 2 of 14 Salary Rank: 2 of 14
Stats Starts SIERA ERA K% BB% GB% HC% SC%
2016 30 4.29 3.38 19.9% 7.1% 42.6% 29.3% 19.0%
2017 30 4.59 3.35 19.9% 7.6% 41.4% 28.7% 22.5%
L30 5 4.10 3.45 21.6% 4.8% 42.2% 23.3% 28.9%

This is an important series for both teams. They are currently the two leaders in the wildcard race in the American League, but the Twins only hold a two game lead over the Angels. Meanwhile, the Yankees are up four games over the Twins and still have an outside chance of catching the Red Sox for the AL East division title. I’ve been waiting for the regression to hit Santana for quite some time now. While his BABIP has come up a bit, .241 shouldn’t be sustainable over the long run. He’s not a bad pitcher, he’s just overpriced in DFS for what he brings to the table. He pitching on the road against the Yankees and he’s the second most expensive pitcher in the slate on both DraftKings and FantasyDraft.

Quick Breakdown: Santana is overpriced and in a bad matchup on the road. He can be avoided in all formats.

Jaime Garcia
Article Image FanDuel DraftKings FantasyDraft
Salary: $6,600 Salary: $6,600 Salary: $13,200
Salary Rank: 8 of 14 Salary Rank: 8 of 14 Salary Rank: 8 of 14
Stats Starts SIERA ERA K% BB% GB% HC% SC%
2016 30 3.93 4.67 20.2% 7.7% 56.7% 31.1% 18.6%
2017 25 4.64 4.35 18.2% 9.6% 55.4% 30.4% 21.3%
L30 3 4.72 2.63 16.9% 10.8% 59.6% 31.9% 17.0%

Garcia hasn’t been great since coming to the Yankees, but he has the revenge narrative going for him tonight. The Twins traded for him, let him make one start, and then traded him to the Yankees. While I’m sure a few days isn’t enough time to actually get acquainted in Minnesota, it probably didn’t feel great being shipped out of town. If you are looking for a cheap pitcher and you don’t want to play Dan Straily against the Mets, Garcia is probably your best bet. The Twins don’t have a lot of power outside of Brian Dozier and Garcia is listed as a sizable favorite in this one.

Quick Breakdown: Garcia doesn’t have the highest ceiling in this matchup, but five or six innings with a shot at the win isn’t out of the question.

Batter Grind Down

Minnesota

The Twins draw a mediocre matchup against Jaime Garcia. While his numbers aren’t all that impressive, he does have an elite ground ball rate (55%). This allows him to induce a lot of soft and medium contact and typically avoid getting shelled. If you are targeting any Twins’ batters tonight, make sure they hit from the right side (Garcia has allowed a .341 xwOBA to righties) and have a high fly-ball rate.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. LH Pitching)

# Player Bats wOBA xwOBA ISO HC% BB% K% GB% FD Pos. FD Sal. DK Pos. DK Sal. FDRFT Pos. FDRFT Sal.
1 Brian Dozier RIGHT 0.433 0.387 0.305 38.6% 13.9% 17.9% 42.6% 2B $3,900 2B $5,000 2B $9,900
2 Joe Mauer LEFT 0.345 0.320 0.080 21.4% 7.9% 12.6% 57.1% 1B $3,500 1B $4,000 1B $7,600
3 Jorge Polanco SWITCH 0.288 0.271 0.151 30.5% 4.5% 14.0% 35.2% SS $3,300 SS $3,800 SS $7,600
4 Eduardo Escobar SWITCH 0.314 0.345 0.153 27.7% 8.5% 17.0% 33.9% 3B $3,200 3B/SS $4,000 SS $7,800
5 Byron Buxton RIGHT 0.366 0.313 0.157 30.2% 12.0% 23.3% 37.2% OF $3,100 OF $4,600 CF $8,800
6 Eddie Rosario LEFT 0.289 0.251 0.116 28.7% 2.5% 19.7% 53.3% OF $4,100 OF $4,800 LF $9,300
7 Kennys Vargas SWITCH 0.268 0.245 0.133 23.1% 11.6% 31.9% 51.3% 1B $3,000 1B $3,700 1B $7,200
8 Chris Gimenez RIGHT 0.303 0.327 0.167 38.0% 11.9% 27.4% 35.4% C $2,400 C $3,100 C $6,000
9 Robbie Grossman SWITCH 0.344 0.362 0.093 37.8% 19.4% 13.4% 42.0% OF $2,800 OF $3,700 LF $7,200

Elite Plays – Brian Dozier (GPP)

Secondary Plays – Brian Dozier (Cash), Jorge Polanco, Eduardo Escobar, Byron Buxton

Stackability – ORANGE / YELLOW

NY Yankees

Ervin Santana isn’t a pitcher that I love to pick on. He has a league-average strikeout rate, a low hard contact rate (29%), and he has held both left and right-handed hitters under a .305 xwOBA this season. This doesn’t exactly look like an ideal pitcher to stack against. Santana rarely gets blown up and he seems to have the baseball gods on his side with such a low BABIP (.241) and such a high left on-base percentage (78%). I’m certainly fine using Brett Gardner, Gary Sanchez, Aaron Judge, and Didi Gregorius, but I won’t be stacking the Yankees in this slate.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

# Player Bats wOBA xwOBA ISO HC% BB% K% GB% FD Pos. FD Sal. DK Pos. DK Sal. FDRFT Pos. FDRFT Sal.
1 Brett Gardner LEFT 0.354 0.329 0.190 32.1% 11.1% 18.6% 40.9% OF $3,600 OF $4,500 LF $8,700
2 Chase Headley SWITCH 0.349 0.325 0.135 32.3% 12.4% 23.4% 42.8% 1B $4,000 1B/3B $3,700 3B $7,200
3 Gary Sanchez RIGHT 0.372 0.372 0.254 36.0% 6.9% 23.5% 43.8% C $3,700 C $4,900 C $9,600
4 Aaron Judge RIGHT 0.419 0.424 0.320 43.8% 16.6% 31.8% 36.0% OF $4,300 OF $5,400 RF $10,500
5 Didi Gregorius LEFT 0.366 0.286 0.241 25.8% 4.8% 11.4% 38.2% SS $3,600 SS $4,800 SS $9,300
6 Starlin Castro RIGHT 0.329 0.295 0.164 29.3% 3.1% 20.5% 49.2% 2B $2,800 2B $3,400 2B $6,600
7 Jacoby Ellsbury LEFT 0.352 0.345 0.155 26.8% 11.8% 11.4% 45.2% OF $3,800 OF $4,100 CF $8,000
8 Todd Frazier RIGHT 0.328 0.346 0.184 30.6% 14.4% 22.3% 37.1% 3B $3,900 3B $4,000 3B $7,600
9 Greg Bird LEFT 0.236 0.294 0.128 34.9% 11.1% 28.7% 30.6% 1B $2,700 1B $3,300 1B $6,400

Elite Plays – Gary Sanchez

Secondary Plays – Brett Gardner, Aaron Judge, Didi Gregorius

Stackability – YELLOW


NY Mets at Miami – 7:10 PM ET

NY Mets Miami
Article Image Matt Harvey Article Image Dan Straily
RIGHT RIGHT
Vegas Moneyline Vegas Over/Under
MIA-160 8.5
Stats wOBA xwOBA HC% BB% K% GB% Stats wOBA xwOBA HC% BB% K% GB%
SP vs. Left (2016-17) 0.394 0.405 36.0% 12.6% 14.9% 34.7% SP vs. Left (2016-17) 0.310 0.283 28.5% 7.9% 21.8% 33.5%
SP vs. Right (2016-17) 0.328 0.325 31.4% 9.3% 17.6% 51.1% SP vs. Right (2016-17) 0.342 0.307 35.9% 6.0% 20.9% 33.5%

Pitcher Grind Down

Matt Harvey
Article Image FanDuel DraftKings FantasyDraft
Salary: $5,500 Salary: $5,100 Salary: $10,200
Salary Rank: 13 of 14 Salary Rank: 14 of 14 Salary Rank: 14 of 14
Stats Starts SIERA ERA K% BB% GB% HC% SC%
2016 17 4.31 4.86 18.9% 6.2% 40.8% 30.3% 24.3%
2017 16 5.35 6.14 16.4% 10.9% 43.4% 33.6% 24.4%
L30 3 5.90 12.19 10.5% 8.8% 33.3% 27.3% 20.5%

Harvey might be the worst pitcher in the slate tonight. In 16 starts this season, he has a 5.35 SIERA, an 11% walk rate, and a strikeout rate of only 16%. He has struggled in his last three starts and now has to go on the road to face the Marlins. I obviously don’t set lines for a living, but if I did, I would have favored the Marlins a bit more than -160. Harvey is not a wagon that you want to hitch your horse to.

Quick Breakdown: I’m all about the Marlins in this one. I will be avoiding all things Mets.

Dan Straily
Article Image FanDuel DraftKings FantasyDraft
Salary: $6,900 Salary: $7,500 Salary: $14,800
Salary Rank: 7 of 14 Salary Rank: 6 of 14 Salary Rank: 6 of 14
Stats Starts SIERA ERA K% BB% GB% HC% SC%
2016 31 4.67 3.76 20.5% 9.2% 32.0% 32.2% 14.8%
2017 30 4.48 4.24 21.3% 7.0% 33.5% 32.2% 19.8%
L30 5 4.77 6.43 20.9% 7.8% 26.1% 24.2% 19.8%

Straily hasn’t been in great form recently, but he is my second favorite pitcher in the slate. Yes, you heard that correctly. He’s obviously not the most reliable pitcher around, but he has a high fly-ball rate, which bodes well for this ballpark (tough to hit home runs here). He draws a favorable matchup against the Mets, who basically have no firepower in their lineup. If you look at their projected starters, only three batters have an xwOBA over .300 against right-handed pitching this season. Straily has decent strikeout upside, he is dirt cheap across the industry, and he’s a sizable home favorite.

Quick Breakdown: September baseball is strange. It’s shaping up to be a Dan Straily chalk night, but I’m on board.

Batter Grind Down

NY Mets

The best way to beat Dan Straily is with power. Unfortunately, the Mets’ lineup is short of that at this point in time. To make matters worse, this is one of the worst ballparks for home run production. I’m not interested in the Mets’ offense tonight. On the season, Straily has held both left and right-handed hitters under a .310 xwOBA.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

# Player Bats wOBA xwOBA ISO HC% BB% K% GB% FD Pos. FD Sal. DK Pos. DK Sal. FDRFT Pos. FDRFT Sal.
1 Jose Reyes SWITCH 0.290 0.282 0.142 26.9% 9.1% 13.7% 38.6% SS $4,000 3B/SS $4,400 SS $8,700
2 Brandon Nimmo LEFT 0.381 0.356 0.163 35.7% 17.1% 24.4% 44.3% OF $3,000 OF $3,400 LF $6,800
3 Asdrubal Cabrera SWITCH 0.321 0.332 0.182 37.3% 9.5% 16.5% 41.1% 3B $3,700 2B/SS $3,800 SS $7,600
4 Dominic Smith LEFT 0.331 0.336 0.253 37.7% 5.7% 20.8% 50.6% 1B $3,500 1B $3,300 1B $6,600
5 Travis d’Arnaud RIGHT 0.266 0.299 0.158 33.7% 4.3% 14.8% 40.0% C $2,800 C $3,300 C $6,400
6 Amed Rosario RIGHT 0.273 0.230 0.121 23.9% 1.9% 31.1% 47.8% SS $2,900 SS $3,400 SS $6,600
7 Norichika Aoki LEFT 0.329 0.293 0.148 23.6% 6.9% 12.4% 55.1% OF $2,900 OF $3,500 LF $6,900
8 Juan Lagares RIGHT 0.298 0.257 0.131 29.8% 5.1% 20.5% 52.8% OF $2,700 OF $2,900 CF $5,700
9 Matt Harvey RIGHT 0.083 0.191 0.000 18.8% 0.0% 23.8% 53.8% P $5,500 P $5,100 P $10,200

Elite Plays – None

Secondary Plays – None

Stackability – RED

Miami

Anytime Matt Harvey takes the mound, there should be a little voice inside your head that tells you to play the left-handed hitters against him. If you do not have that voice, don’t worry, we are having a one day special here on RotoGrinders. We are running a buy-one get-one free promotion. Two voices for the price of one. All kidding aside, we should be loading up on the lefties here, as Harvey has allowed a .405 xwOBA, a 36% hard contact rate, and a 13% walk rate to batters from the left side of the plate this season. A full Marlins’ stack is also viable, as Harvey isn’t particularly good against right-handed hitters either.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

# Player Bats wOBA xwOBA ISO HC% BB% K% GB% FD Pos. FD Sal. DK Pos. DK Sal. FDRFT Pos. FDRFT Sal.
1 Dee Gordon LEFT 0.319 0.259 0.072 17.9% 5.0% 14.0% 55.5% 2B $4,100 2B $4,200 2B $8,000
2 Giancarlo Stanton RIGHT 0.391 0.382 0.326 37.7% 10.6% 25.9% 43.6% OF $4,000 OF $5,300 RF $10,400
3 Christian Yelich LEFT 0.359 0.365 0.169 37.5% 12.4% 19.9% 54.5% OF $4,000 OF $4,300 CF $8,400
4 Marcell Ozuna RIGHT 0.384 0.360 0.259 40.3% 8.7% 22.8% 44.7% OF $3,400 OF $4,700 LF $9,300
5 Justin Bour LEFT 0.370 0.393 0.233 43.2% 11.2% 20.7% 40.2% 1B $3,500 1B $4,400 1B $8,700
6 J.T. Realmuto RIGHT 0.316 0.320 0.161 32.4% 4.9% 18.4% 49.8% C $3,200 C $4,200 C $8,000
7 Derek Dietrich LEFT 0.306 0.312 0.185 33.7% 7.1% 21.0% 35.4% 3B $3,100 3B $3,800 3B $7,600
8 Mike Aviles RIGHT 0.287 0.243 0.114 13.9% 9.8% 17.6% 48.6% SS $2,000 2B/OF $2,300 IF/OF $4,500
9 Dan Straily RIGHT 0.061 0.094 0.000 14.3% 2.2% 52.2% 86.7% P $6,900 P $7,500 P $14,800

Elite Plays – Dee Gordon, Giancarlo Stanton, Christian Yelich, Justin Bour

Secondary Plays – Marcell Ozuna, J.T. Realmuto, Derek Dietrich

Stackability – YELLOW / GREEN


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About the Author

Notorious
Derek Farnsworth (Notorious)

Derek Farnsworth (aka Notorious) is a lead RotoGrinders Expert and one of the most recognizable names and faces in all of DFS. Before joining the RotoGrinders team, Derek received a Master’s Degree from the University of Utah. When he’s not busy providing content, he’s dominating the DFS industry as evidenced by his consistent top rankings in several sports and multiple Live Final appearances. Noto provides expert NBA, NFL, MLB, and PGA analysis for RotoGrinders Premium members on a daily basis and has also been nominated for five different Fantasy Sports Writer’s Association (FSWA) awards. Follow Noto on Twitter – @RG_Notorious