MLB Grind Down: Saturday, April 30th

by Dave Potts (CheeseIsGood) Last Updated 2016-05-02 00:32:48

The RotoGrinders MLB Grind Down will give you an in-depth analysis into the upcoming MLB schedule. This article will break down the numbers for every single game and give you analysis on which trends you can exploit. While matchups are a major factor in daily fantasy baseball, there are plenty of other factors to consider such as injuries, weather, and salaries.

The analysis should point you in the right direction, but it is still up to you to decipher the information and make your own selections. No sport has more variance than baseball. The best choice is not always the right choice but following the trends will win you money over time.

Note: As always, if you want to try a new DFS site, be sure to click through a RotoGrinders link and use our DraftKings promo code and FanDuel promo code to receive the best perks in the industry.

Detroit at Minnesota – 2:10 PM

Stats	wOBA	HR All.	K%	BB%	Stats	wOBA	HR All.	K%	BB%
Detroit					Minnesota
			Jordan Zimmermann					Tyler Duffey
			RIGHT					RIGHT
			Vegas Moneyline					Vegas Over/Under
			DET -125					8.0
SP vs. Left	0.321	13	19.4%	6.7%	SP vs. Left	0.318	2	26.4%	8.5%
SP vs. Right	0.271	11	19.0%	2.9%	SP vs. Right	0.308	3	15.2%	8.3%

Pitcher Grind Down

				Salary:$9,400		Salary:$9,300
Jordan Zimmermann
				FanDuel:		DraftKings:
				FPPG:42.8		FPPG:21.8
				Pitcher Rating:68.9		Pitcher Rank:9
Statistics	Starts	SIERA	K%	BB%	GB%	HH%	O-K%
2016	4	4.44	15.2%	6.7%	50.0%	22.0%	22
2015	33	3.83	19.7%	4.7%	42.0%	29.5%	22

Zimmermann has been brilliant in his new home in Detroit, opening the season 4-0 with an 0.35 ERA. While that type of run prevention is great, it’s mostly a fluke at this point, as he has a low .268 BABIP and has yet to allow a home run. Those numbers will even out, and when they do, his low strikeout rate could get him into occasional trouble. He has historically been in the 18%-20% range with his strikeouts, and he currently sits at just 15.2%. It’s probably reasonable to assume his strikeouts come back up to his normal level as his good luck evens out on the other end. I am considering him to be the same pitcher he always was, a below average strikeout, good control pitcher who will be good more often than not. The Twins present a decent matchup for him, and he is not a terrible play, but he looks overpriced for his skill set on most sites, due to the excellent surface stats.

				Salary:$6,200		Salary:$7,000
Tyler Duffey
				FanDuel:		DraftKings:
				FPPG:12.0		FPPG:4.8
				Pitcher Rating:56.4		Pitcher Rank:18
Statistics	Starts	SIERA	K%	BB%	GB%	HH%	O-K%
2016	1	6.18	5.3%	10.5%	43.8%	25.0%	28
2015	10	3.83	21.9%	8.3%	49.7%	26.6%	13

Duffey has made one start this season, and it was not good, with one strikeout and two walks in four innings before being hit in the shoulder. He was pretty good in 10 starts in his rookie season with a 3.83 SIERA, 21.9% strikeout rate and 8.3% walk rate. This is not a lot of sample size to go on, and while his minor league numbers are solid, I don’t see any reason to risk using him against a loaded Tigers lineup.

Batter Grind Down

Detroit

Again taking into account that it is a very small sample size, Duffey has shown reverse splits in his limited time, with a much higher strikeout rate and ground ball rate against left-handed batters. That would bode well for this right-handed heavy Tigers lineup, but it is really too small of a sample to get overly excited about. I will be judging Detroit simply on their ability vs right-handed pitching, and assuming that Duffey will end up around average. The Tigers make for a viable GPP stack, and have several pieces you can consider in cash games.

Tigers Offense
Team wOBA vs. RHP — 0.317 (15 of 30)
Team ISO vs. RHP — 0.142 (22 of 30)
Runs Per Game — 4.77 (9 of 30)
Projected Run Total — 4.15 (10 of 30)

Projected Lineup

#	Player	Bats	wOBA vs. RHP	ISO vs. RHP	FD Position	FD Salary	DK Position	DK Salary
1	Ian Kinsler	RIGHT	0.333	0.130	2B	$4,000	2B	$4,600
2	J.D. Martinez	RIGHT	0.365	0.236	OF	$3,300	OF	$4,100
3	Miguel Cabrera	RIGHT	0.403	0.196	1B	$3,800	1B	$4,700
4	Victor Martinez	SWITCH	0.280	0.141	C	$3,000	1B	$3,600
5	Justin Upton	RIGHT	0.345	0.213	OF	$2,700	OF	$4,100
6	Nick Castellanos	RIGHT	0.293	0.144	3B	$3,000	3B	$3,200
7	Jarrod Saltalamacchia	SWITCH	0.334	0.241	C	$2,800	C	$3,700
8	Jose Iglesias	RIGHT	0.292	0.052	SS	$2,300	SS	$2,800
9	Anthony Gose	LEFT	0.305	0.116	OF	$2,500	OF	$3,300
	Team Averages	—	0.328	0.163	—	$3,044	—	$3,789

Elite Plays –

Miguel Cabrera – 2015 vs RHP – .408 wOBA, 161 wRC+
J.D. Martinez – 2015 vs RHP – .369 wOBA, 134 wRC+

Secondary Plays –

Ian Kinsler – 2015 vs RHP – .332 wOBA, 109 wRC+
Justin Upton -2015 vs RHP – .362 wOBA, 135 wRC+
Anthony Gose -2015 vs RHP – .314 wOBA, 97 wRC+
Jarrod Saltalamacchia – 2015 vs RHP – .301 wOBA, 85 wRC+
Victor Martinez – 2015 vs RHP – .264 wOBA, 62 wRC+
Nick Castellanos – 2015 vs RHP – .283 wOBA, 75 wRC+

Stackability – High

Minnesota

It’s hard to love the Twins bats today with the way Zimmermann has looked, but as I pointed out, his BABIP and HR/FB% are going to come back to earth at some point, and the Twins have plenty of power bats that could take advantage of his low strikeout rate. He has been a little worse against left-handed batters throughout his career, but the numbers are still solid. I wouldn’t recommend Twins in cash games, but there is tournament upside in this lineup.

Twins Offense
Team wOBA vs. RHP — 0.301 (26 of 30)
Team ISO vs. RHP — 0.152 (12 of 30)
Runs Per Game — 3.43 (26 of 30)
Projected Run Total — 3.85 (19 of 30)

Projected Lineup

#	Player	Bats	wOBA vs. RHP	ISO vs. RHP	FD Position	FD Salary	DK Position	DK Salary
1	Danny Santana	SWITCH	0.229	0.076	OF	$2,600	SS	$2,300
2	Brian Dozier	RIGHT	0.314	0.198	2B	$3,100	2B	$4,000
3	Joe Mauer	LEFT	0.322	0.116	1B	$3,400	1B	$3,500
4	Miguel Sano	RIGHT	0.380	0.236	OF	$3,500	3B/OF	$4,000
5	Byung Ho Park	RIGHT	0.394	0.358	1B	$3,200	1B	$3,700
6	Oswaldo Arcia	LEFT	0.316	0.200	OF	$2,700	OF	$3,300
7	Eduardo Nunez	RIGHT	0.375	0.116	SS	$2,900	3B/SS	$3,200
8	Eduardo Escobar	SWITCH	0.304	0.151	SS	$2,200	SS	$2,600
9	Kurt Suzuki	RIGHT	0.262	0.078	C	$2,100	C	$2,300
	Team Averages	—	0.322	0.170	—	$2,856	—	$3,211

Elite Plays –

Miguel Sano – .397 wOBA, 154 wRC+

Secondary Plays –

Eduardo Nunez – .351 wOBA, 123 wRC+
Brian Dozier – .321 wOBA, 102 wRC+
Byung-Ho Park
Joe Mauer – .309 wOBA, 93 wRC+
Oswaldo Arcia – .306 wOBA, 91 wRC+
Danny Santana – .213 wOBA, 27 wRC+

Stackability – Medium

Washington at St. Louis – 2:15 PM

Stats	wOBA	HR All.	K%	BB%	Stats	wOBA	HR All.	K%	BB%
Washington					St. Louis
			Joe Ross					Jaime Garcia
			RIGHT					LEFT
			Vegas Moneyline					Vegas Over/Under
			STL -125					7.0
SP vs. Left	0.345	4	15.6%	10.8%	SP vs. Left	0.265	2	22.8%	4.4%
SP vs. Right	0.190	3	26.3%	3.2%	SP vs. Right	0.250	4	19.9%	7.3%

Pitcher Grind Down

				Salary:$7,200		Salary:$8,100
Joe Ross
				FanDuel:		DraftKings:
				FPPG:25.3		FPPG:13.6
				Pitcher Rating:62.3		Pitcher Rank:16
Statistics	Starts	SIERA	K%	BB%	GB%	HH%	O-K%
2016	3	4.44	16.1%	8.1%	50.0%	13.0%	7
2015	13	3.66	22.0%	6.7%	49.8%	30.2%	11

Ross left his last start after two innings with a blister, but is expected to be back to normal today. His first two starts this season were excellent, allowing just one run in 15 innings with a 10/4 K/BB ratio. His strikeout rate was above average at 22% in his rookie season, which was similar to his minor league track record. He is a ground ball pitcher who has big success against right-handed batters, but has been very hittable against lefties. The Cardinals have a few lefties who could cause him trouble, but for the most part, this looks like a decent matchup for him. There are enough good pitchers today, that he comes in pretty far down the list, but is certainly not a bad choice where appropriately priced.

				Salary:$8,300		Salary:$9,100
Jaime Garcia
				FanDuel:		DraftKings:
				FPPG:36.8		FPPG:22.0
				Pitcher Rating:77.3		Pitcher Rank:6
Statistics	Starts	SIERA	K%	BB%	GB%	HH%	O-K%
2016	4	3.27	28.2%	10.7%	58.7%	23.8%	20
2015	20	3.39	19.0%	5.9%	61.2%	27.1%	14

Garcia has been a consistent pitcher when healthy throughout his career. He typically posts a slightly below average strikeout rate with excellent control and a high ground ball rate, 56.5% for his career. This season, he has one huge start, when he struck out 13 Brewers, that is skewing his overall stat line. Unless he shows that sort of dominance again, we should assume that game was the outlier, and consider him exactly the same as we always have. A very good real life pitcher, who should limit the damage against him and put up a solid, but unspectacular stat line. This game has a low total, and Garcia is favored, which certainly puts him in play, just be realistic with your expectations.

Batter Grind Down

Washington

The left-handed Garcia has allowed a higher wOBA to lefties throughout his career, though nothing in the peripherals suggest that he should. He has always had a higher strikeout rate and ground ball rate to lefties, but for some reason consistently allows a higher BABIP. It’s possible there’s something to that, but I lean towards thinking it’s more of a fluke, as he doesn’t tend to face many lefties, and the ones he does face are the opposing teams best hitters. Garcia is a tough pitcher to play against with his high ground ball rate and strong control. I would reserve Nationals bats for tournaments, and even then, use them very sparingly.

Nationals Offense
Team wOBA vs. LHP — 0.329 (3 of 30)
Team ISO vs. LHP — 0.156 (7 of 30)
Runs Per Game — 3.95 (16 of 30)
Projected Run Total — 3.35 (27 of 30)

Projected Lineup

#	Player	Bats	wOBA vs. LHP	ISO vs. LHP	FD Position	FD Salary	DK Position	DK Salary
1	Michael Taylor	RIGHT	0.282	0.150	OF	$2,400	OF	$3,100
2	Anthony Rendon	RIGHT	0.327	0.080	3B	$2,600	3B	$3,500
3	Bryce Harper	LEFT	0.433	0.265	OF	$5,500	OF	$5,000
4	Ryan Zimmerman	RIGHT	0.425	0.346	1B	$2,500	1B	$4,100
5	Daniel Murphy	LEFT	0.305	0.117	2B	$3,400	2B	$3,100
6	Jayson Werth	RIGHT	0.335	0.281	OF	$2,700	OF	$3,900
7	Wilson Ramos	RIGHT	0.269	0.138	C	$2,800	C	$3,000
8	Danny Espinosa	SWITCH	0.310	0.127	SS	$2,100	SS	$2,500
9	Joe Ross	RIGHT	0.483	0.000	P	$7,200	P	$8,100
	Team Averages	—	0.352	0.167	—	$3,000	—	$3,525

Elite Plays –

Secondary Plays –

Bryce Harper – 2015 vs LHP – .421 wOBA, 170 wRC+
Ryan Zimmerman – 2015 vs LHP – .439 wOB, 182 wRC+

Stackability – Low

St. Louis

For the Cardinals, it’s pretty simple – play the left-handers and sit the right-handers. Through his first 93 career innings, he has allowed a .345 wOBA to lefties and a .190 wOBA to righties. His strikeout rate is 15.6% to lefties and 26.3% to righties. Hard hit rate is 35.6% to lefties and 18.8% to righties. Do I need to go on?

Cardinals Offense
Team wOBA vs. RHP — 0.318 (3 of 30)
Team ISO vs. RHP — 0.148 (9 of 30)
Runs Per Game — 6.13 (2 of 30)
Projected Run Total — 3.65 (23 of 30)

Projected Lineup

#	Player	Bats	wOBA vs. RHP	ISO vs. RHP	FD Position	FD Salary	DK Position	DK Salary
1	Matt Carpenter	LEFT	0.392	0.252	3B	$4,000	3B	$4,100
2	Stephen Piscotty	RIGHT	0.357	0.192	OF	$3,500	OF	$4,000
3	Matt Holliday	RIGHT	0.366	0.176	OF	$3,100	1B/OF	$3,700
4	Brandon Moss	LEFT	0.315	0.217	1B	$2,900	1B/OF	$3,300
5	Yadier Molina	RIGHT	0.314	0.102	C	$3,100	C	$3,200
6	Matt Adams	LEFT	0.293	0.156	1B	$2,000	1B	$2,900
7	Jedd Gyorko	RIGHT	0.293	0.162	SS	$2,300	2B/SS	$2,900
8	Aledmys Diaz	RIGHT	0.549	0.340	SS	$3,300	SS	$3,600
9	Jaime Garcia	LEFT	0.124	0.000	P	$8,300	P	$9,100
	Team Averages	—	0.334	0.177	—	$3,025	—	$3,463

Elite Plays –

Matt Carpenter – 2015 vs RHP – .394 wOBA, 154 wRC+
Brandon Moss – 2015 vs RHP – .360 wOBA, 130 wRC+

Secondary Plays –

Jeremy Hazelbaker

Stackability – Low/Medium

Atlanta at Chicago Cubs – 2:20 PM

Stats	wOBA	HR All.	K%	BB%	Stats	wOBA	HR All.	K%	BB%
Atlanta					Chicago Cubs
			Julio Teheran					John Lackey
			RIGHT					RIGHT
			Vegas Moneyline					Vegas Over/Under
			CHC -230					7.0
SP vs. Left	0.388	22	14.9%	11.6%	SP vs. Left	0.329	12	14.5%	8.8%
SP vs. Right	0.257	10	25.3%	5.9%	SP vs. Right	0.274	12	25.0%	3.5%

Pitcher Grind Down

				Salary:$7,700		Salary:$7,800
Julio Teheran
				FanDuel:		DraftKings:
				FPPG:23.6		FPPG:12.4
				Pitcher Rating:42.6		Pitcher Rank:25
Statistics	Starts	SIERA	K%	BB%	GB%	HH%	O-K%
2016	5	4.36	19.5%	8.6%	41.6%	41.3%	14
2015	33	4.24	20.3%	8.7%	39.5%	31.4%	30

The weather makes this game very questionable to play. If it does, the wind blowing in is a boost to pitchers, but there is no merit to playing pitchers here with all the rain, even if they are able to start.

				Salary:$9,000		Salary:$9,600
John Lackey
				FanDuel:		DraftKings:
				FPPG:37.8		FPPG:19.1
				Pitcher Rating:80.5		Pitcher Rank:4
Statistics	Starts	SIERA	K%	BB%	GB%	HH%	O-K%
2016	4	3.19	26.5%	5.9%	38.2%	40.6%	18
2015	33	3.90	19.5%	5.9%	46.0%	30.1%	2

See above, can’t risk pitchers with this weather.

Batter Grind Down

Atlanta

Braves Offense
Team wOBA vs. RHP — 0.300 (27 of 30)
Team ISO vs. RHP — 0.109 (30 of 30)
Runs Per Game — 3.26 (30 of 30)
Projected Run Total — 2.75 (30 of 30)

Projected Lineup

#	Player	Bats	wOBA vs. RHP	ISO vs. RHP	FD Position	FD Salary	DK Position	DK Salary
1	Nick Markakis	LEFT	0.352	0.099	OF	$3,300	OF	$3,700
2	Daniel Castro	RIGHT	0.230	0.024	2B	$2,000	2B/3B	$2,200
3	Freddie Freeman	LEFT	0.372	0.217	1B	$3,000	1B	$3,900
4	Adonis Garcia	RIGHT	0.309	0.147	3B	$2,100	3B	$2,600
5	A.J. Pierzynski	LEFT	0.338	0.134	C	$2,100	C	$2,900
6	Kelly Johnson	LEFT	0.313	0.163	3B	$2,100	2B/OF	$2,700
7	Jace Peterson	LEFT	0.297	0.094	2B	$2,200	2B/OF	$2,800
8	Mallex Smith	LEFT	0.241	0.069	OF	$2,300	OF	$3,200
9	Julio Teheran	RIGHT	0.094	0.000	P	$7,700	P	$7,800
	Team Averages	—	0.283	0.105	—	$2,388	—	$3,000

Elite Plays –

Secondary Plays –

Stackability –

Chicago Cubs

Cubs Offense
Team wOBA vs. RHP — 0.316 (8 of 30)
Team ISO vs. RHP — 0.160 (7 of 30)
Runs Per Game — 6.18 (1 of 30)
Projected Run Total — 4.25 (8 of 30)

Projected Lineup

#	Player	Bats	wOBA vs. RHP	ISO vs. RHP	FD Position	FD Salary	DK Position	DK Salary
1	Dexter Fowler	SWITCH	0.340	0.183	OF	$4,100	OF	$4,900
2	Jason Heyward	LEFT	0.351	0.153	OF	$3,400	OF	$3,900
3	Ben Zobrist	SWITCH	0.325	0.153	2B	$3,200	2B	$3,700
4	Anthony Rizzo	LEFT	0.393	0.277	1B	$4,700	1B	$4,800
5	Jorge Soler	RIGHT	0.310	0.145	OF	$2,400	OF	$3,400
6	Javier Baez	RIGHT	0.265	0.103	SS	$2,400	3B/SS	$2,900
7	Addison Russell	RIGHT	0.327	0.153	SS	$3,100	SS	$3,000
8	David Ross	RIGHT	0.231	0.099	C	$2,400	C	$2,900
9	John Lackey	RIGHT	0.142	0.034	P	$9,000	P	$9,600
	Team Averages	—	0.298	0.144	—	$3,213	—	$3,688

Elite Plays –

Secondary Plays –

Stackability –

Houston at Oakland – 4:05 PM

Stats	K%	Stats	wOBA	HR All.	K%	BB%
Houston		Oakland
	Chris Devenski				Jesse Hahn
	RIGHT				RIGHT
	Vegas Moneyline				Vegas Over/Under
	OAK -110				8.0
SP vs. Left		SP vs. Left	0.322	3	15.6%	5.7%
SP vs. Right		SP vs. Right	0.228	2	16.0%	6.7%

Pitcher Grind Down

				Salary:$5,600		Salary:$5,000
Chris Devenski
				FanDuel:		DraftKings:
				FPPG:12.3		FPPG:7.6
				Pitcher Rating:45.0		Pitcher Rank:23
Statistics	Starts	SIERA	K%	BB%	GB%	HH%	O-K%
2016							9
2015							4

Devenski makes his first career start, after 14 innings in the bullpen, and no AAA experience. He has an impressive 12/1 K/BB ration out of the bullpen, but it’s hard to trust such a small sample size. He is not a top prospect, and not someone that I am very familiar with. His minor league numbers look OK, but not outstanding, I don’t see any reason to take a risk here, unless you really want to take a longshot GPP play if your site has him at minimum salary.

				Salary:$7,800		Salary:$7,500
Jesse Hahn
				FanDuel:		DraftKings:
				FPPG:27.9		FPPG:0.0
				Pitcher Rating:57.7		Pitcher Rank:17
Statistics	Starts	SIERA	K%	BB%	GB%	HH%	O-K%
2016							29
2015	16	4.01	15.8%	6.2%	52.6%	23.3%	29

It was a bit of a surprise when Hahn was sent down to the minors to open the season, but it didn’t take long for him to make it up. He looked decent in his 2014 rookie season in San Diego with a 3.73 SIERA, and with Oakland in 2015, his strikeout rate dropped to 15.8% and his SIERA rose to 4.01, but a 52.6% ground ball rate kept him viable. We know the deal with pitchers facing Houston, lots of risk, but more strikeouts available than with most other teams. Given that Hahn is not a high strikeout guy, and relies more on ground balls and soft contact, I don’t see much reason to take a chance on him today. He doesn’t have the kind of upside you need in tournaments, and isn’t safe enough for cash games.

Batter Grind Down

Houston

You know the deal with Houston. It hardly matters who they’re facing, and Jesse Hahn, while a decent pitcher, is not someone to be afraid of. Their bats have been mostly cold, but they can explode at any time. Left-handers have hit Hahn harder in his career, but the big righties are all in play for tournaments.

Astros Offense
Team wOBA vs. RHP — 0.324 (6 of 30)
Team ISO vs. RHP — 0.188 (2 of 30)
Runs Per Game — 3.91 (17 of 30)
Projected Run Total — 3.94 (17 of 30)

Projected Lineup

#	Player	Bats	wOBA vs. RHP	ISO vs. RHP	FD Position	FD Salary	DK Position	DK Salary
1	Jose Altuve	RIGHT	0.338	0.165	2B	$4,500	2B	$5,100
2	George Springer	RIGHT	0.335	0.159	OF	$3,700	OF	$4,600
3	Carlos Correa	RIGHT	0.358	0.204	SS	$4,100	SS	$4,900
4	Colby Rasmus	LEFT	0.348	0.263	OF	$3,600	OF	$4,200
5	Evan Gattis	RIGHT	0.322	0.225	C	$2,500	OF	$3,800
6	Carlos Gomez	RIGHT	0.302	0.143	OF	$2,600	OF	$3,900
7	Marwin Gonzalez	SWITCH	0.289	0.126	1B	$2,100	1B/3B	$2,800
8	Luis Valbuena	LEFT	0.336	0.212	3B	$2,100	3B	$3,300
9	Jason Castro	LEFT	0.304	0.184	C	$2,300	C	$3,000
	Team Averages	—	0.326	0.187	—	$3,056	—	$3,956

Elite Plays –

Colby Rasmus – 2015 vs RHP – .329 wOBA, 107 wRC+
Carlos Correa – 2015 vs RHP – .359 wOBA, 128 wRC+
George Springer – 2015 vs RHP – .336 wOBA, 113 wRC+
Jose Altuve – 2015 vs RHP – .319 wOBA, 101 wRC+

Secondary Plays –

Luis Valbuena – 2015 vs RHP – .348 wOBA, 121 wRC+

Stackability – High

Oakland

Rather than trying to guess how Devenski is going to handle his first start, I am going to just look at Oakland’s numbers overall against right-handed pitching, and not be afraid to use the guys like Reddick and Vogt who have a good history, and assume that the 14 bullpen innings from Devenski are mostly a fluke. Because of the uncertaintly, the A’s are not a safe cash game offense, though viable, but an intriguing GPP stack.

Athletics Offense
Team wOBA vs. RHP — 0.307 (22 of 30)
Team ISO vs. RHP — 0.146 (21 of 30)
Runs Per Game — 3.52 (25 of 30)
Projected Run Total — 4.06 (13 of 30)

Projected Lineup

#	Player	Bats	wOBA vs. RHP	ISO vs. RHP	FD Position	FD Salary	DK Position	DK Salary
1	Billy Burns	SWITCH	0.305	0.102	OF	$3,100	OF	$4,300
2	Jed Lowrie	SWITCH	0.285	0.123	2B	$2,800	2B	$3,200
3	Josh Reddick	LEFT	0.360	0.199	OF	$3,400	OF	$4,000
4	Khris Davis	RIGHT	0.357	0.250	OF	$3,000	OF	$3,600
5	Stephen Vogt	LEFT	0.349	0.206	C	$3,000	C	$3,500
6	Mark Canha	RIGHT	0.348	0.217	OF	$2,400	1B/OF	$3,800
7	Chris Coghlan	LEFT	0.348	0.217	3B	$2,400	2B/3B	$3,400
8	Yonder Alonso	LEFT	0.313	0.099	1B	$2,100	1B	$3,200
9	Marcus Semien	RIGHT	0.285	0.143	SS	$2,500	SS	$3,300
	Team Averages	—	0.328	0.173	—	$2,744	—	$3,589

Elite Plays –

Josh Reddick – 2015 vs RHP – .356 wOBA, 129 wRC+
Stephen Vogt – 2015 vs RHP – .353 wOBA, 128 wRC+
Chris Coghlan – 2015 vs RHP – .355 wOBA, 125 wRC+

Secondary Plays –

Khris Davis – 2015 vs RHP – .367 wOBA, 130 wRC+
Billy Burns – 2015 vs RHP – .308 wOBA, 96 wRC+
Jed Lowrie – 2015 vs RHP – .273 wOBA, 69 wRC+

Stackability – Medium

San Francisco at NY Mets – 4:05 PM

Stats	wOBA	HR All.	K%	BB%	Stats	wOBA	HR All.	K%	BB%
San Francisco					NY Mets
			Matt Cain					Jacob deGrom
			RIGHT					RIGHT
			Vegas Moneyline					Vegas Over/Under
			NYM -180					7.0
SP vs. Left	0.391	7	13.1%	7.4%	SP vs. Left	0.280	12	25.7%	4.3%
SP vs. Right	0.361	7	17.9%	7.9%	SP vs. Right	0.219	4	28.2%	5.3%

Pitcher Grind Down

				Salary:$5,900		Salary:$6,600
Matt Cain
				FanDuel:		DraftKings:
				FPPG:16.5		FPPG:7.1
				Pitcher Rating:36.6		Pitcher Rank:28
Statistics	Starts	SIERA	K%	BB%	GB%	HH%	O-K%
2016	4	4.71	16.8%	8.4%	34.8%	28.2%	22
2015	11	4.78	15.1%	7.4%	35.8%	36.4%	15

Cain has shown no signs that he is going to be able to turn his career back around. After a 15.1% strikeout rate and 4.78 SIERA in 2015, he sits at 16.8% K and a 4.68 SIERA in the early going. There is no case to be made for using Cain in any format.

				Salary:$9,900		Salary:$10,800
Jacob deGrom
				FanDuel:		DraftKings:
				FPPG:40.0		FPPG:20.2
				Pitcher Rating:88.2		Pitcher Rank:2
Statistics	Starts	SIERA	K%	BB%	GB%	HH%	O-K%
2016	2	3.22	19.6%	0.0%	48.6%	29.7%	1
2015	30	2.99	27.3%	5.1%	44.4%	26.3%	6

deGrom is an ace, and a heavy favorite in a home game with a low total. Sure the Giants are a tough opponent, but deGrom should be at or near the top of your list. He has only made two starts this season, so we can’t dig into the numbers too much, but he hasn’t walked a batter in his first 12 innings and has only allowed two runs. Through his first two major league seasons, he posted a 3.08 SIERA with a 26.3% strikeout rate and 6% walk rate. Very safe cash game play and comes with strikeout upside for tournaments.

Batter Grind Down

San Francisco

deGrom has allowed a .284 wOBA to left-handed bats and a .240 wOBA to righties in his career. There is really no reason to look towards Giants bats today against a top pitcher.

Giants Offense
Team wOBA vs. RHP — 0.321 (6 of 30)
Team ISO vs. RHP — 0.146 (17 of 30)
Runs Per Game — 4.96 (6 of 30)
Projected Run Total — 3.04 (29 of 30)

Projected Lineup

#	Player	Bats	wOBA vs. RHP	ISO vs. RHP	FD Position	FD Salary	DK Position	DK Salary
1	Denard Span	LEFT	0.382	0.153	OF	$3,500	OF	$3,600
2	Kelby Tomlinson	RIGHT	0.300	0.066	2B	$2,200	2B	$2,500
3	Matt Duffy	RIGHT	0.340	0.150	3B	$2,700	3B	$3,100
4	Brandon Belt	LEFT	0.363	0.196	1B	$3,600	1B	$3,600
5	Brandon Crawford	LEFT	0.345	0.218	SS	$2,800	SS	$3,000
6	Hunter Pence	RIGHT	0.371	0.209	OF	$3,500	OF	$3,900
7	Angel Pagan	SWITCH	0.273	0.082	OF	$2,700	OF	$3,000
8	Trevor Brown	RIGHT	0.368	0.217	C	$2,200	C	$2,700
9	Matt Cain	RIGHT	0.000	0.000	P	$5,900	P	$6,600
	Team Averages	—	0.305	0.143	—	$2,900	—	$3,175

Elite Plays –

Secondary Plays –

Stackability – Extremely Low

NY Mets

The Mets can be loaded up early and often against Cain. He allows a lot of hard contact and fly balls to both right and left-handed batters. In 2015, he allowed a .404 wOBA to lefties and a .357 wOBA to righties, and as I mentioned, he has shown no signs of improvement. All Mets are in play, and the big left-handed bats are especially strong high upside options.

Mets Offense
Team wOBA vs. RHP — 0.308 (18 of 30)
Team ISO vs. RHP — 0.152 (10 of 30)
Runs Per Game — 4.81 (8 of 30)
Projected Run Total — 3.96 (15 of 30)

Projected Lineup

#	Player	Bats	wOBA vs. RHP	ISO vs. RHP	FD Position	FD Salary	DK Position	DK Salary
1	Curtis Granderson	LEFT	0.382	0.226	OF	$3,700	OF	$4,500
2	Asdrubal Cabrera	SWITCH	0.327	0.164	SS	$2,700	SS	$3,300
3	Michael Conforto	LEFT	0.395	0.274	OF	$3,900	OF	$3,600
4	Yoenis Cespedes	RIGHT	0.387	0.272	OF	$4,400	OF	$4,800
5	Lucas Duda	LEFT	0.348	0.229	1B	$3,300	1B	$4,000
6	Neil Walker	SWITCH	0.340	0.192	2B	$3,800	2B	$4,000
7	Wilmer Flores	RIGHT	0.272	0.102	SS	$2,000	2B/SS	$3,000
8	Kevin Plawecki	RIGHT	0.261	0.057	C	$2,100	C	$2,500
9	Jacob deGrom	RIGHT	0.194	0.018	P	$9,900	P	$10,800
	Team Averages	—	0.323	0.170	—	$3,238	—	$3,713

Elite Plays –

Yoenis Cespedes – 2015 vs RHP – .383 wOBA, 146 wRC+
Curtis Granderson – 2015 vs RHP – .384 wOBA, 151 wRC+
Michael Conforto – 2015 vs RHP – .371 wOBA, 142 wRC+
Lucas Duda – 2015 vs RHP – .354 wOBA, 130 wRC+
Neil Walker – 2015 vs RHP – .340 wOBA, 119 wRC+
David Wright – 2015 vs RHP – .334 wOBA, 116 wRC+

MLB Grind Down: Saturday, April 30th

Detroit at Minnesota – 2:10 PM

Pitcher Grind Down

Batter Grind Down

Detroit

Projected Lineup

Elite Plays –

Secondary Plays –

Stackability – High

Minnesota

Projected Lineup

Elite Plays –

Secondary Plays –

Stackability – Medium

Washington at St. Louis – 2:15 PM

Pitcher Grind Down

Batter Grind Down

Washington

Projected Lineup

Elite Plays –

Secondary Plays –

Stackability – Low

St. Louis

Projected Lineup

Elite Plays –

Secondary Plays –

Stackability – Low/Medium

Atlanta at Chicago Cubs – 2:20 PM

Pitcher Grind Down

Batter Grind Down

Atlanta

Projected Lineup

Elite Plays –

Secondary Plays –

Stackability –

Chicago Cubs

Projected Lineup

Elite Plays –

Secondary Plays –

Stackability –

Houston at Oakland – 4:05 PM

Pitcher Grind Down

Batter Grind Down

Houston

Projected Lineup

Elite Plays –

Secondary Plays –

Stackability – High

Oakland

Projected Lineup

Elite Plays –

Secondary Plays –

Stackability – Medium

San Francisco at NY Mets – 4:05 PM

Pitcher Grind Down

Batter Grind Down

San Francisco

Projected Lineup

Elite Plays –

Secondary Plays –

Stackability – Extremely Low

NY Mets

Projected Lineup

Elite Plays –

Secondary Plays –

Stackability – High, Very High, Super High. Stack ‘em up!

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