MLB Grind Down: Saturday, July 16th

by Ryan138 Last Updated 2016-07-17 03:26:33

The RotoGrinders MLB Grind Down will give you an in-depth analysis into the upcoming MLB schedule. This article will break down the numbers for every single game and give you analysis on which trends you can exploit. While matchups are a major factor in daily fantasy baseball, there are plenty of other factors to consider such as injuries, weather, and salaries.

The analysis should point you in the right direction, but it is still up to you to decipher the information and make your own selections. No sport has more variance than baseball. The best choice is not always the right choice but following the trends will win you money over time.

Note: As always, if you want to try a new DFS site, be sure to click through a RotoGrinders link and use our DraftKings promo code and FanDuel promo code to receive the best perks in the industry.

Texas at Chicago Cubs – 2:20 PM ET

Stats	wOBA	HR All.	K%	BB%	Stats	wOBA	HR All.	K%	BB%
Texas					Chicago Cubs
			Yu Darvish					Jason Hammel
			RIGHT					RIGHT
			Vegas Moneyline					Vegas Over/Under
			CHC -140					8.0
SP vs. Left	0.302	0	25.0%	11.1%	SP vs. Left	0.325	15	22.3%	9.0%
SP vs. Right	0.215	1	35.7%	7.1%	SP vs. Right	0.287	22	23.1%	4.2%

Pitcher Grind Down

Statistics	Starts	PitchPS	SIERA	ERA	K%	BB%	SS%	GB%	FB%	HH%
Yu Darvish
					FanDuel			DraftKings
					Salary:		$9,100	Salary:
					FPPG:		37.7	FPPG:
					Pitcher Rating:		69.6	Pitcher Rank:		8
2016	3	81.7	3.45	2.87	29.7%	9.4%	11.8%	46.2%	30.8%	35.9%

Darvish gets the start for the Rangers, as he is activated off the disabled list he was on for the last month with a shoulder injury. He has only made three starts this year and did not pitch more than six innings in any of them. He will be treated with kid gloves this afternoon and likely will not be allowed to exceed 90 pitches. He may pitch well, but he is not worth the risk this afternoon against a Cubs squad that is ranked in second in runs per game and are -140 favorites.

Statistics	Starts	PitchPS	SIERA	ERA	K%	BB%	SS%	GB%	FB%	HH%
Jason Hammel
					FanDuel			DraftKings
					Salary:		$8,400	Salary:
					FPPG:		23.8	FPPG:
					Pitcher Rating:		72.9	Pitcher Rank:		5
L30 Days	5	86.4	4.47	6.18	16.1%	5.1%	8.1%	46.6%	34.1%	31.1%
2016	17	87.4	4.36	3.46	20.1%	7.6%	9.8%	44.3%	36.5%	29.4%
2015	31	88.7	3.45	3.74	24.2%	5.6%	10.9%	38.3%	37.2%	32.9%

Hammel has struggled in his last two starts prior to the break, as he got lit up for ten earned in one start and had to leave early with cramps in the other. Hopefully the break was good for him, as he had a great first half and comes into this game with a 3.46 ERA (4.36 SIERA) to go along with a decent 20.1% strikeout rate. Regression is most likely in order as his ERA sits close to a full run higher than his SIERA, but today he is a decent favorite against the Rangers who are ranked 13th in both wOBA and ISO against right-handed pitching. He makes a decent start today, but I do think there are slightly better plays at his price range.

Batter Grind Down

The Rangers have the third-lowest total of all 30 teams playing today at just 3.77 runs against Hammel. With that said, Hammel has struggled against left-handed bats and has allowed a .369 wOBA to them on the year. I wouldn’t go all in, but using some of the cheaper lefties is not a horrible idea.

Texas

Rangers Offense (2016)
Team wOBA vs. RHP — 0.320 (13 of 30)
Team ISO vs. RHP — 0.167 (13 of 30)
Team K% vs. RHP — 19.4% (8 of 30)
Runs Per Game — 4.92 (7 of 30)
Projected Run Total — 3.77 (28 of 30)

Projected Lineup

#	Player	Bats	wOBA vs. RHP	ISO vs. RHP	wOBA L14	FD Position	FD Salary	DK Position	DK Salary
1	Shin-Soo Choo	LEFT	0.383	0.205	0.383	OF	$3,300
2	Ian Desmond	RIGHT	0.314	0.163	0.388	OF	$3,700
3	Rougned Odor	LEFT	0.329	0.217	0.358	2B	$3,100
4	Adrian Beltre	RIGHT	0.309	0.137	0.339	3B	$3,200
5	Prince Fielder	LEFT	0.357	0.155	0.329	1B	$2,200
6	Nomar Mazara	LEFT	0.353	0.174	0.274	OF	$2,800
7	Elvis Andrus	RIGHT	0.285	0.087	0.387	SS	$2,900
8	Robinson Chirinos	RIGHT	0.313	0.209	0.317	C	$2,500
9	Yu Darvish	RIGHT				P	$9,100
	Team Averages	—	0.330	0.168	0.347	—	—	—	—

Elite Plays – None

Secondary Plays – Prince Fielder, Rougned Odor, Shin-Soo Choo

Stackability – RED

Chicago Cubs

The Cubs have a middle-of-the-road total at 4.23 runs, which is the 17th-highest of the entire day. Darvish has kept righties at bay in his career but has ben attackable from the left side of the plate as he has allowed a career wOBA of .303 to lefties.

Cubs Offense (2016)
Team wOBA vs. RHP — 0.331 (8 of 30)
Team ISO vs. RHP — 0.174 (11 of 30)
Team K% vs. RHP — 22.9% (25 of 30)
Runs Per Game — 5.23 (2 of 30)
Projected Run Total — 4.23 (17 of 30)

Projected Lineup

#	Player	Bats	wOBA vs. RHP	ISO vs. RHP	wOBA L14	FD Position	FD Salary	DK Position	DK Salary
1	Ben Zobrist	SWITCH	0.344	0.179	0.327	2B	$3,700
2	Kris Bryant	RIGHT	0.382	0.231	0.572	3B	$4,200
3	Anthony Rizzo	LEFT	0.406	0.276	0.487	1B	$4,300
4	Willson Contreras	RIGHT	0.417	0.296	0.357	C	$2,700
5	Jason Heyward	LEFT	0.337	0.139	0.329	OF	$2,500
6	Addison Russell	RIGHT	0.324	0.152	0.329	SS	$3,000
7	Javier Baez	RIGHT	0.275	0.132	0.397	SS	$2,600
8	Miguel Montero	LEFT	0.319	0.158	0.345	C	$2,500
9	Jason Hammel	RIGHT	0.188	0.034	0.146	P	$8,400
	Team Averages	—	0.332	0.177	0.365	—	—	—	—

Elite Plays – Anthony Rizzo

Secondary Plays – Ben Zobrist, Kris Bryant

Stackability – ORANGE

Boston at NY Yankees – 4:05 PM ET

Stats	wOBA	HR All.	K%	BB%	Stats	wOBA	HR All.	K%	BB%
Boston					NY Yankees
			Eduardo Rodriguez					CC Sabathia
			LEFT					LEFT
			Vegas Moneyline					Vegas Over/Under
			NYY -130					9.5
SP vs. Left	0.354	7	19.1%	4.8%	SP vs. Left	0.262	4	27.2%	6.9%
SP vs. Right	0.322	15	17.8%	8.2%	SP vs. Right	0.345	30	17.0%	7.7%

Pitcher Grind Down

Statistics	Starts	PitchPS	SIERA	ERA	K%	BB%	SS%	GB%	FB%	HH%
Eduardo Rodriguez
					FanDuel			DraftKings
					Salary:		$6,300	Salary:		$4,600
					FPPG:		13.2	FPPG:		4.2
					Pitcher Rating:		38.5	Pitcher Rank:		28
L30 Days	4	88.3	4.81	10.70	20.0%	10.0%	9.4%	30.2%	41.3%	39.7%
2016	6	90.2	5.36	8.59	15.3%	8.8%	8.0%	30.8%	47.1%	35.6%
2015	21	95.7	4.16	3.85	18.8%	7.1%	7.8%	43.0%	33.4%	31.4%

Rodriguez gets the nod today for the Red Sox, who are hoping he can bounce back from a miserable start of the season today. He has an ERA of 8.59 (5.36 SIERA) and a very low 15.3% strikeout rate after his first six starts. The Red Sox believe Rodriguez has fixed a pitch-tipping and are hopeful he looks like the pitcher who ended a seven-start rookie season with a 3.06 ERA. It will be interesting to watch, but there is no need to take a risk on him today.

Statistics	Starts	PitchPS	SIERA	ERA	K%	BB%	SS%	GB%	FB%	HH%
CC Sabathia
					FanDuel			DraftKings
					Salary:		$6,700	Salary:		$6,900
					FPPG:		28.7	FPPG:		14.3
					Pitcher Rating:		49.9	Pitcher Rank:		23
L30 Days	5	98.6	4.48	6.83	16.7%	7.3%	12.8%	53.6%	29.9%	26.5%
2016	15	95.1	4.61	3.77	18.8%	8.9%	10.3%	47.7%	35.1%	24.4%
2015	29	93.2	4.08	4.73	18.9%	6.9%	9.1%	45.9%	32.4%	29.1%

The wheels fell off for Sabathia at the end of the first half. In his last four starts, he gave up at least five earned runs in each of them while giving up four home runs. Some second-half regression should be in order as his SIERA (4.61) sits close to a full run higher than his ERA (3.77). The matchup today is what makes Sabathia an easy fade, as the Red Sox are ranked third in wOBA against lefties and have the highest runs per game in the majors.

Batter Grind Down

Boston

For the last few years, Sabathia was getting crushed by right-handed bats every start. He has really improved that statistic but is not allowing lefties to hit well off of him (.333 wOBA). This Red Sox offense can be used in all formats, as they have a projected team total of 4.57, which is the seventh-highest of the day.

Red Sox Offense (2016)
Team wOBA vs. LHP — 0.349 (3 of 30)
Team ISO vs. LHP — 0.164 (15 of 30)
Team K% vs. LHP — 18.0% (4 of 30)
Runs Per Game — 5.63 (1 of 30)
Projected Run Total — 4.57 (7 of 30)

Projected Lineup

#	Player	Bats	wOBA vs. LHP	ISO vs. LHP	wOBA L14	FD Position	FD Salary	DK Position	DK Salary
1	Mookie Betts	RIGHT	0.343	0.193	0.422	OF	$3,600	OF	$5,400
2	Dustin Pedroia	RIGHT	0.343	0.146	0.324	2B	$3,400	2B	$4,200
3	Xander Bogaerts	RIGHT	0.396	0.125	0.301	SS	$3,800	SS	$5,200
4	David Ortiz	LEFT	0.311	0.194	0.441	1B	$4,700	1B	$4,900
5	Hanley Ramirez	RIGHT	0.352	0.222	0.522	1B	$3,200	1B	$4,900
6	Jackie Bradley	LEFT	0.358	0.172	0.316	OF	$3,600	OF	$3,800
7	Aaron Hill	RIGHT	0.291	0.089	0.334	3B	$2,800	2B/3B	$3,300
8	Brock Holt	LEFT	0.348	0.089	0.466	OF	$2,800	OF	$3,400
9	Sandy Leon	SWITCH	0.261	0.071	0.479	C	$3,000	C	$2,700
	Team Averages	—	0.334	0.145	0.401	—	—	—	—

Elite Plays – Mookie Betts, Xander Bogaerts, Dustin Pedroia, David Ortiz

Secondary Plays – Hanley Ramirez, Aaron Hill

Stackability – GREEN

NY Yankees

Vegas does not exactly think that Rodriguez will return from the break with everything “figured out.” The Yankees have the highest total of the entire day at 4.93 runs projected, and they get a great matchup against Rodriguez, who has allowed a .376+ wOBA from both sides of the plate. Loading up on Yankees has shot people in the foot a few times this year, but they are in a great spot today.

Yankees Offense (2016)
Team wOBA vs. LHP — 0.305 (26 of 30)
Team ISO vs. LHP — 0.133 (27 of 30)
Team K% vs. LHP — 18.0% (4 of 30)
Runs Per Game — 4.22 (20 of 30)
Projected Run Total — 4.93 (1 of 30)

Projected Lineup

#	Player	Bats	wOBA vs. LHP	ISO vs. LHP	wOBA L14	FD Position	FD Salary	DK Position	DK Salary
1	Brett Gardner	LEFT	0.306	0.090	0.270	OF	$3,400	OF	$3,100
2	Jacoby Ellsbury	LEFT	0.295	0.088	0.352	OF	$3,900	OF	$3,700
3	Carlos Beltran	SWITCH	0.360	0.237	0.380	OF	$3,800	OF	$5,000
4	Alex Rodriguez	RIGHT	0.375	0.255	0.208	3B	$3,300	1B/3B	$4,500
5	Mark Teixeira	SWITCH	0.318	0.142	0.309	1B	$2,700	1B	$3,200
6	Starlin Castro	RIGHT	0.297	0.102	0.305	2B	$2,700	2B	$3,300
7	Chase Headley	SWITCH	0.312	0.114	0.382	3B	$2,700	3B	$3,300
8	Rob Refsnyder	RIGHT	0.313	0.098	0.292	1B	$2,500	1B/OF	$3,300
9	Austin Romine	RIGHT	0.308	0.172	0.347	C	$2,300	C	$2,700
	Team Averages	—	0.320	0.144	0.316	—	—	—	—

Elite Plays – Jacoby Ellsbury, Alex Rodriguez, Carlos Beltran, Mark Teixeira

Secondary Plays – Brett Gardner, Brian McCann, Starlin Castro

Stackability – GREEN

Toronto at Oakland – 4:05 PM ET

Stats	wOBA	HR All.	K%	BB%	Stats	wOBA	HR All.	K%	BB%
Toronto					Oakland
			R.A. Dickey					Sonny Gray
			RIGHT					RIGHT
			Vegas Moneyline					Vegas Over/Under
			TOR -115					8.5
SP vs. Left	0.314	22	13.8%	8.8%	SP vs. Left	0.276	11	20.8%	7.6%
SP vs. Right	0.317	23	16.4%	6.1%	SP vs. Right	0.300	18	18.3%	7.5%

Pitcher Grind Down

Statistics	Starts	PitchPS	SIERA	ERA	K%	BB%	SS%	GB%	FB%	HH%
R.A. Dickey
					FanDuel			DraftKings
					Salary:		$7,600	Salary:		$8,300
					FPPG:		26.5	FPPG:		13.1
					Pitcher Rating:		45.9	Pitcher Rank:		24
L30 Days	6	96.5	4.43	3.49	19.1%	7.0%	11.7%	43.1%	38.8%	36.2%
2016	19	97.6	4.76	3.93	17.0%	8.2%	9.8%	44.8%	34.3%	30.9%
2015	33	98.9	4.76	3.91	14.3%	6.9%	9.1%	41.9%	37.2%	23.9%

Dickey is not exactly someone we need to cover too much as you know what you are getting with him. A below-average SIERA (4.76) and a below-average strikeout rate (17%) gives us someone we do not what to target too often, especially against an Athletics offense that strikes out at a very low rate (18.1%).

Statistics	Starts	PitchPS	SIERA	ERA	K%	BB%	SS%	GB%	FB%	HH%
Sonny Gray
					FanDuel			DraftKings
					Salary:		$7,700	Salary:		$5,400
					FPPG:		23.0	FPPG:		10.9
					Pitcher Rating:		57.9	Pitcher Rank:		17
L30 Days	5	100.6	4.13	4.80	17.1%	6.2%	6.8%	55.7%	25.8%	33.7%
2016	16	93.6	4.41	5.16	18.0%	8.5%	7.8%	54.2%	27.4%	33.0%
2015	31	99.3	3.80	2.73	20.3%	7.1%	9.7%	52.7%	30.7%	25.1%

Gray comes into this game with a 5.16 ERA (4.41 SIERA), as he struggled in a number of starts over the first half of the season. His low 18% strikeout rate and the matchup today against the Blue Jays (ranked sixth and third in wOBA and ISO against right-handed pitching, respectively) makes him a tough play in all formats. If you want to use him for tournament settings hoping he bounces back in the second half, DraftKings has him at a very low price today.

Batter Grind Down

Toronto

Gray has allowed a .311 wOBA to lefties and a .371 wOBA to righties on the year. This puts a number of Toronto bats in play today, as they are small favorites and have a decent 4.34 total.

Blue Jays Offense (2016)
Team wOBA vs. RHP — 0.334 (6 of 30)
Team ISO vs. RHP — 0.195 (3 of 30)
Team K% vs. RHP — 22.3% (20 of 30)
Runs Per Game — 4.91 (8 of 30)
Projected Run Total — 4.34 (13 of 30)

Projected Lineup

#	Player	Bats	wOBA vs. RHP	ISO vs. RHP	wOBA L14	FD Position	FD Salary	DK Position	DK Salary
1	Ezequiel Carrera	LEFT	0.300	0.104	0.315	OF	$3,000	OF	$3,500
2	Josh Donaldson	RIGHT	0.399	0.274	0.523	3B	$5,200	3B	$5,600
3	Edwin Encarnacion	RIGHT	0.387	0.279	0.448	1B	$4,500	1B	$4,300
4	Michael Saunders	LEFT	0.359	0.204	0.356	OF	$3,600	OF	$4,700
5	Russell Martin	RIGHT	0.308	0.175	0.349	C	$2,900	C	$3,500
6	Troy Tulowitzki	RIGHT	0.328	0.180	0.381	SS	$3,200	SS	$4,800
7	Justin Smoak	SWITCH	0.328	0.223	0.255	1B	$2,800	1B	$3,800
8	Kevin Pillar	RIGHT	0.307	0.133	0.333	OF	$2,400	OF	$3,300
9	Devon Travis	RIGHT	0.365	0.199	0.319	2B	$3,000	2B	$3,900
	Team Averages	—	0.342	0.197	0.364	—	—	—	—

Elite Plays – Josh Donaldson, Michael Saunders

Secondary Plays – Ezequiel Carrera, Edwin Encarnacion

Stackability – YELLOW

Oakland

The Athletics offense really got to Stroman last night with a number of home runs. They should have a chance to replicate that success against Dickey tonight, who has allowed 20 in just 19 starts.

Athletics Offense (2016)
Team wOBA vs. RHP — 0.297 (27 of 30)
Team ISO vs. RHP — 0.138 (26 of 30)
Team K% vs. RHP — 18.1% (4 of 30)
Runs Per Game — 4.11 (24 of 30)
Projected Run Total — 4.16 (19 of 30)

Projected Lineup

#	Player	Bats	wOBA vs. RHP	ISO vs. RHP	wOBA L14	FD Position	FD Salary	DK Position	DK Salary
1	Coco Crisp	SWITCH	0.279	0.136	0.327	OF	$3,200	OF	$3,600
2	Jed Lowrie	SWITCH	0.294	0.111	0.283	2B	$2,400	2B	$2,600
3	Josh Reddick	LEFT	0.364	0.186	0.261	OF	$3,000	OF	$3,300
4	Khris Davis	RIGHT	0.346	0.246	0.289	OF	$2,900	OF	$3,300
5	Danny Valencia	RIGHT	0.356	0.218	0.258	3B	$3,200	3B	$3,400
6	Stephen Vogt	LEFT	0.345	0.193	0.376	C	$2,900	C	$3,600
7	Marcus Semien	RIGHT	0.292	0.156	0.370	SS	$2,900	SS	$3,400
8	Yonder Alonso	LEFT	0.318	0.105	0.379	1B	$2,500	1B	$2,900
9	Jake Smolinski	RIGHT	0.216	0.095	0.353	OF	$2,200	OF	$3,300
	Team Averages	—	0.312	0.161	0.322	—	—	—	—

Elite Plays – Josh Reddick, Stephen Vogt

Secondary Plays – Jed Lowrie, Coco Crisp, Danny Valencia

Stackability – YELLOW

Houston at Seattle – 4:10 PM ET

Stats	wOBA	HR All.	K%	BB%	Stats	wOBA	HR All.	K%	BB%
Houston					Seattle
			Lance McCullers					Hisashi Iwakuma
			RIGHT					RIGHT
			Vegas Moneyline					Vegas Over/Under
			HOU -115					8.0
SP vs. Left	0.284	4	30.5%	8.2%	SP vs. Left	0.330	15	18.8%	4.4%
SP vs. Right	0.322	8	21.5%	11.7%	SP vs. Right	0.296	21	20.1%	5.2%

Pitcher Grind Down

Statistics	Starts	PitchPS	SIERA	ERA	K%	BB%	SS%	GB%	FB%	HH%
Lance McCullers
					FanDuel			DraftKings
					Salary:		$8,800	Salary:		$9,800
					FPPG:		36.3	FPPG:		18.4
					Pitcher Rating:		80.5	Pitcher Rank:		2
L30 Days	4	93.5	3.76	2.70	27.7%	10.9%	13.6%	50.8%	24.6%	25.8%
2016	10	96.9	3.98	3.79	28.2%	13.3%	12.7%	55.8%	21.8%	26.9%
2015	22	95.9	3.57	3.22	24.8%	8.3%	9.8%	46.5%	31.8%	28.9%

McCullers has been solid in his first 10 starts this year, and he comes into this start with a 3.98 SIERA to go along with an elite 28.2% strikeout rate. He gets a tough matchup today against the Mariners, who rank fifth and seventh in wOBA and ISO against right-handed pitching. The early slate does not have many options for pitching, making McCullers a top play for the early slate.

Statistics	Starts	PitchPS	SIERA	ERA	K%	BB%	SS%	GB%	FB%	HH%
Hisashi Iwakuma
					FanDuel			DraftKings
					Salary:		$8,700	Salary:		$8,500
					FPPG:		29.9	FPPG:		14.3
					Pitcher Rating:		61.5	Pitcher Rank:		15
L30 Days	5	91.4	4.92	4.65	14.7%	5.9%	5.3%	38.7%	40.6%	38.0%
2016	18	92.8	4.54	4.25	17.3%	5.6%	8.1%	39.3%	39.3%	32.3%
2015	20	93.4	3.36	3.54	21.5%	4.1%	10.6%	50.4%	31.1%	26.9%

Iwakuma had an average first half of the year, as he sports a 4.25 ERA (4.54 SIERA) to go along with a below average 17.3% strikeout rate. His matchup today is pretty boom or bust, as the Astros strike out at a high rate (24%) but are ranked tenth in both ISO and wOBA against righties. Iwakuma is in play today, but I like his counterpart in this matchup a bit better.

Batter Grind Down

Houston

The Astros have the tenth-lowest projected run total of the day at 4.09 runs. Iwaukuma has struggled against lefties this year, allowing a wOBA of .364 to them on the season, compared to the .315 wOBA he’s allowed to righties.

Astros Offense (2016)
Team wOBA vs. RHP — 0.324 (10 of 30)
Team ISO vs. RHP — 0.175 (10 of 30)
Team K% vs. RHP — 24.0% (27 of 30)
Runs Per Game — 4.51 (15 of 30)
Projected Run Total — 4.09 (21 of 30)

Projected Lineup

#	Player	Bats	wOBA vs. RHP	ISO vs. RHP	wOBA L14	FD Position	FD Salary	DK Position	DK Salary
1	George Springer	RIGHT	0.342	0.175	0.399	OF	$3,800	OF	$4,000
2	Marwin Gonzalez	SWITCH	0.296	0.128	0.249	1B	$2,900	1B/3B	$2,800
3	Jose Altuve	RIGHT	0.350	0.161	0.314	2B	$3,700	2B	$5,100
4	Carlos Correa	RIGHT	0.366	0.224	0.333	SS	$3,900	SS	$4,400
5	Luis Valbuena	LEFT	0.354	0.230	0.434	3B	$3,100	3B	$4,300
6	Colby Rasmus	LEFT	0.329	0.211	0.278	OF	$2,900	OF	$4,300
7	Carlos Gomez	RIGHT	0.300	0.142	0.263	OF	$2,700	OF	$2,500
8	A.J. Reed	LEFT	0.306	0.222	0.265	1B	$2,300	1B	$3,300
9	Jason Castro	LEFT	0.329	0.202	0.233	C	$2,400	C	$3,000
	Team Averages	—	0.330	0.188	0.308	—	—	—	—

Elite Plays – Luis Valbuena

Secondary Plays – Jose Altuve, Carlos Correa, Marwin Gonzalez

Stackability – RED

Seattle

McCullers comes into this game allowing a .335 wOBA to lefties and .331 wOBA to righties on the year. Seattle does hit right-handed pitching well, but have a tough matchup against McCullers today, which is why they have the fifth-lowest total (3.91) of the entire day. Use their bats with caution.

Mariners Offense (2016)
Team wOBA vs. RHP — 0.338 (5 of 30)
Team ISO vs. RHP — 0.186 (7 of 30)
Team K% vs. RHP — 19.6% (9 of 30)
Runs Per Game — 4.89 (9 of 30)
Projected Run Total — 3.91 (26 of 30)

Projected Lineup

#	Player	Bats	wOBA vs. RHP	ISO vs. RHP	wOBA L14	FD Position	FD Salary	DK Position	DK Salary
1	Leonys Martin	LEFT	0.284	0.132	0.203	OF	$3,000	OF	$2,900
2	Seth Smith	LEFT	0.353	0.196	0.470	OF	$3,200	OF	$3,700
3	Robinson Cano	LEFT	0.379	0.221	0.453	2B	$3,400	2B	$5,300
4	Nelson Cruz	RIGHT	0.365	0.228	0.403	OF	$3,000	OF	$4,000
5	Kyle Seager	LEFT	0.362	0.215	0.537	3B	$3,400	3B	$4,700
6	Dae-ho Lee	RIGHT	0.362	0.222	0.379	1B	$2,200	1B	$3,200
7	Adam Lind	LEFT	0.348	0.211	0.256	1B	$3,000	1B	$3,000
8	Chris Iannetta	RIGHT	0.256	0.131	0.170	C	$2,000	C	$2,000
9	Ketel Marte	SWITCH	0.316	0.087	0.245	SS	$2,000	SS	$2,600
	Team Averages	—	0.336	0.183	0.346	—	—	—	—

Elite Plays – None

Secondary Plays – Robinson Cano, Nelson Cruz

Stackability – RED

Baltimore at Tampa Bay – 6:10 PM ET

Stats	wOBA	HR All.	K%	BB%	Stats	wOBA	HR All.	K%	BB%
Baltimore					Tampa Bay
			Chris Tillman					Matt Moore
			RIGHT					LEFT
			Vegas Moneyline					Vegas Over/Under
			BAL -125					8.5
SP vs. Left	0.318	11	18.5%	10.4%	SP vs. Left	0.311	7	17.3%	6.4%
SP vs. Right	0.326	23	17.6%	7.3%	SP vs. Right	0.349	20	19.9%	7.9%

Pitcher Grind Down

Statistics	Starts	PitchPS	SIERA	ERA	K%	BB%	SS%	GB%	FB%	HH%
Chris Tillman
					FanDuel			DraftKings
					Salary:		$8,700	Salary:		$10,600
					FPPG:		34.2	FPPG:		17.3
					Pitcher Rating:		50.0	Pitcher Rank:		22
L30 Days	6	105.3	5.27	4.29	15.1%	9.2%	6.5%	34.8%	38.4%	31.6%
2016	19	99.2	4.47	3.41	21.1%	9.3%	9.1%	40.8%	37.3%	31.3%
2015	31	94.9	4.69	4.99	16.2%	8.6%	7.1%	43.5%	35.4%	26.9%

Tillman has pitched well in the first half of the season for the Orioles. He sports a 3.41 ERA and a decent 21.1% strikeout rate. His SIERA (4.47) shows a bit of regression in the second half, but today he gets a decent matchup against the Rays, who are ranked 26th in wOBA and eighth in ISO against right-handed pitching. He also gets to pitch in Tropicana, which is a pitcher’s park, making him a decent option today. The problem is he is priced a bit too high today in comparison to the other pitchers in play in the day slate.

Statistics	Starts	PitchPS	SIERA	ERA	K%	BB%	SS%	GB%	FB%	HH%
Matt Moore
					FanDuel			DraftKings
					Salary:		$7,700	Salary:		$8,100
					FPPG:		28.7	FPPG:		14.5
					Pitcher Rating:		55.4	Pitcher Rank:		19
L30 Days	6	109.8	4.40	2.52	20.9%	6.8%	10.9%	33.0%	50.5%	26.1%
2016	18	101.8	4.31	4.46	20.7%	7.1%	10.4%	37.8%	43.1%	32.7%
2015	12	88.0	4.67	5.43	16.6%	8.3%	9.9%	39.2%	38.7%	31.7%

Moore had an up-and-down first half of the season. This resulted in a 4.46 ERA (4.31 SIERA) and an average 20.7% strikeout rate. The problem today is the matchup against the Orioles, who rank fifth overall in runs per game and have some lefty-mashing bats in their lineup. Moore can be used as a GPP play today, but I would rather pay up a bit more for McCullers.

Batter Grind Down

Baltimore

Righties are where to attack Moore, as he has allowed a wOBA of .336 to them on the season. This Orioles are slight favorites in this game, and have a projected team total of 4.40, which is the tenth highest of the day.

Orioles Offense (2016)
Team wOBA vs. LHP — 0.316 (19 of 30)
Team ISO vs. LHP — 0.175 (9 of 30)
Team K% vs. LHP — 22.3% (18 of 30)
Runs Per Game — 5.08 (5 of 30)
Projected Run Total — 4.40 (10 of 30)

Projected Lineup

#	Player	Bats	wOBA vs. LHP	ISO vs. LHP	wOBA L14	FD Position	FD Salary	DK Position	DK Salary
1	Adam Jones	RIGHT	0.300	0.161	0.330	OF	$3,600	OF	$3,100
2	Jonathan Schoop	RIGHT	0.283	0.131	0.420	2B	$3,300	2B	$3,600
3	Manny Machado	RIGHT	0.356	0.194	0.287	3B	$3,800	3B/SS	$4,400
4	Chris Davis	LEFT	0.345	0.215	0.334	1B	$4,000	1B	$3,700
5	Mark Trumbo	RIGHT	0.352	0.270	0.476	OF	$3,800	OF	$4,600
6	Matt Wieters	SWITCH	0.282	0.122	0.166	C	$2,600	C	$2,400
7	J.J. Hardy	RIGHT	0.240	0.073	0.334	SS	$2,400	SS	$2,600
8	Nolan Reimold	RIGHT	0.326	0.140	0.375	OF	$2,000	OF	$2,300
9	Joey Rickard	RIGHT	0.372	0.188	0.292	OF	$2,900	OF	$3,300
	Team Averages	—	0.317	0.166	0.335	—	—	—	—

Elite Plays – Adam Jones, Manny Machado, Mark Trumbo

Secondary Plays – Jonathan Schoop

Stackability – YELLOW

Tampa Bay

If you are going to play Rays today against Tillman, make them lefties, as he has allowed a wOBA of .334 to them while holding righties to a .283 wOBA. The Rays have a low projected team total of 4.10, so keep expectations for their offense low.

Rays Offense (2016)
Team wOBA vs. RHP — 0.301 (26 of 30)
Team ISO vs. RHP — 0.177 (8 of 30)
Team K% vs. RHP — 24.9% (29 of 30)
Runs Per Game — 3.91 (27 of 30)
Projected Run Total — 4.10 (20 of 30)

Projected Lineup

#	Player	Bats	wOBA vs. RHP	ISO vs. RHP	wOBA L14	FD Position	FD Salary	DK Position	DK Salary
1	Logan Forsythe	RIGHT	0.324	0.118	0.338	2B	$3,900	2B	$3,400
2	Brad Miller	LEFT	0.336	0.204	0.310	SS	$3,700	SS	$3,500
3	Evan Longoria	RIGHT	0.324	0.183	0.396	3B	$3,900	3B	$3,200
4	Logan Morrison	LEFT	0.315	0.181	0.263	1B	$2,900	1B	$2,900
5	Brandon Guyer	RIGHT	0.287	0.116	0.273	OF	$2,800	OF	$2,800
6	Steven Souza	RIGHT	0.314	0.173	0.250	OF	$2,800	OF	$2,800
7	Corey Dickerson	LEFT	0.354	0.270	0.410	OF	$2,800	OF	$2,900
8	Kevin Kiermaier	LEFT	0.324	0.184		OF	$2,200	OF	$3,200
9	Curt Casali	RIGHT	0.287	0.229	0.205	C	$2,300	C	$2,000
	Team Averages	—	0.318	0.184	0.306	—	—	—	—

MLB Grind Down: Saturday, July 16th

Texas at Chicago Cubs – 2:20 PM ET

Pitcher Grind Down

Batter Grind Down

Texas

Projected Lineup

Elite Plays – None

Secondary Plays – Prince Fielder, Rougned Odor, Shin-Soo Choo

Stackability – RED

Chicago Cubs

Projected Lineup

Elite Plays – Anthony Rizzo

Secondary Plays – Ben Zobrist, Kris Bryant

Stackability – ORANGE

Boston at NY Yankees – 4:05 PM ET

Pitcher Grind Down

Batter Grind Down

Boston

Projected Lineup

Elite Plays – Mookie Betts, Xander Bogaerts, Dustin Pedroia, David Ortiz

Secondary Plays – Hanley Ramirez, Aaron Hill

Stackability – GREEN

NY Yankees

Projected Lineup

Elite Plays – Jacoby Ellsbury, Alex Rodriguez, Carlos Beltran, Mark Teixeira

Secondary Plays – Brett Gardner, Brian McCann, Starlin Castro

Stackability – GREEN

Toronto at Oakland – 4:05 PM ET

Pitcher Grind Down

Batter Grind Down

Toronto

Projected Lineup

Elite Plays – Josh Donaldson, Michael Saunders

Secondary Plays – Ezequiel Carrera, Edwin Encarnacion

Stackability – YELLOW

Oakland

Projected Lineup

Elite Plays – Josh Reddick, Stephen Vogt

Secondary Plays – Jed Lowrie, Coco Crisp, Danny Valencia

Stackability – YELLOW

Houston at Seattle – 4:10 PM ET

Pitcher Grind Down

Batter Grind Down

Houston

Projected Lineup

Elite Plays – Luis Valbuena

Secondary Plays – Jose Altuve, Carlos Correa, Marwin Gonzalez

Stackability – RED

Seattle

Projected Lineup

Elite Plays – None

Secondary Plays – Robinson Cano, Nelson Cruz

Stackability – RED

Baltimore at Tampa Bay – 6:10 PM ET

Pitcher Grind Down

Batter Grind Down

Baltimore

Projected Lineup

Elite Plays – Adam Jones, Manny Machado, Mark Trumbo

Secondary Plays – Jonathan Schoop

Stackability – YELLOW

Tampa Bay

Projected Lineup

Elite Plays – Brad Miller

Secondary Plays – Logan Morrison

Stackability – RED

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