MLB Grind Down: Saturday, July 28th

by Taylor Smith (tcsmith031) Last Updated 2018-07-28 17:31:35

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The RotoGrinders MLB Grind Down will give you an in-depth analysis into the upcoming MLB schedule. This article will break down the numbers for every single game and give you analysis on which trends you can exploit. While matchups are a major factor in daily fantasy baseball, there are plenty of other factors to consider such as injuries, weather, and salaries.

The analysis should point you in the right direction, but it is still up to you to decipher the information and make your own selections. No sport has more variance than baseball. The best choice is not always the right choice but following the trends will win you money over time.

Note: As always, if you want to try a new DFS site, be sure to click through a RotoGrinders link and use our DraftKings promo code, FanDuel promo code, and FantasyDraft promo code to receive the best perks in the industry.

Stackability Rating System:

GREEN – A viable full stack in cash games and GPPs.
YELLOW – A viable mini-stack in cash games and full stack in GPPs.
ORANGE – A viable stack in large field GPPs.
RED – Not a recommended stack for cash games or GPPs.

Implied Run Totals

Ballpark Ratings

Kansas City at NY Yankees – 1:05 PM ET

Stats	wOBA	xwOBA	HC%	BB%	K%	GB%	Stats	wOBA	xwOBA	HC%	BB%	K%	GB%
Kansas City								NY Yankees
			Brad Keller							Luis Severino
			RIGHT							RIGHT
			Vegas Moneyline							Vegas Over/Under
			NYY-420							8.5
SP vs. Left (2016-17)	0.294	0.339	29.3%	15.0%	15.8%	57.0%	SP vs. Left (2016-17)	0.270	0.308	37.3%	7.9%	29.7%	42.6%
SP vs. Right (2016-17)	0.273	0.310	33.8%	6.4%	14.5%	57.4%	SP vs. Right (2016-17)	0.266	0.299	32.2%	4.7%	28.1%	43.9%

Pitcher Grind Down

	Stats	Starts	SIERA	ERA	K%	BB%	GB%	HC%	SC%	aFV	SwS%
Brad Keller
	FanDuel				DraftKings				FantasyDraft
	Salary:			$5,700	Salary:			$4,600	Salary:
	Salary Rank:			24 of 30	Salary Rank:			25 of 30	Salary Rank:

	2018	9	4.63	3.20	15.1%	9.9%	57.2%	32.1%	17.9%	94.2	8.0%
	L14	2	4.56	7.45	20.0%	13.3%	62.1%	36.7%	10.0%	93.5	8.3%

Brad Keller is a low-strikeout, high-ground ball guy taking on the Yankees in New York today. While he’s gotten decent results this season, it’s hard to get excited about a guy with a 15% strikeout rate. The Yankees lineup isn’t as fearsome without Aaron Judge in it, but there are still a number of quality bats in there. The Yankees have one of the highest implied team totals on the board, so you probably want nothing to do with Keller in this spot.

Quick Breakdown: Keller is an easy fade.

	Stats	Starts	SIERA	ERA	K%	BB%	GB%	HC%	SC%	aFV	SwS%
Luis Severino
	FanDuel				DraftKings				FantasyDraft
	Salary:			$11,000	Salary:			$12,200	Salary:
	Salary Rank:			3 of 30	Salary Rank:			3 of 30	Salary Rank:
	2017	31	3.25	2.98	29.4%	6.5%	50.6%	28.5%	19.4%	97.6	13.0%
	2018	21	3.19	2.63	28.8%	6.1%	43.4%	34.3%	20.2%	97.7	12.5%
	L14	1	2.58	10.80	30.8%	0.0%	33.3%	44.4%	5.6%	97.5	17.7%

Luis Severino has been knocked around in his last few starts, but he has still been stellar on the year as a whole. The All-Star boasts a strong 28.8% strikeout rate along with low walks and a 34.3% hard-hit rate. His 3.19 SIERA suggests his 2.63 ERA is a bit flukey, but the Royals offense he’ll be facing today isn’t all that scary. The KC lineup is laden with right-handed bats and Sev has been death on RHBs historically. Despite the Royals not having a ton of strikeouts in the lineup, I still think Severino is an elite play today.

Quick Breakdown: Severino is a strong play against a weak Royals lineup.

Batter Grind Down

Kansas City

Severino has been a bit more vulnerable against lefties in his career, and we know Yankee Stadium is great for lefty power. Lucas Duda is a deep GPP flier given the short porch in right. The Royals also traded their best hitter (Mike Moustakas) last night, so this lineup is looking worse by the day. KC isn’t a team worth targeting.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

#	Player	Bats	xwOBA	ISO	HC%	BB%	K%	GB%	FD Pos.	FD Sal.	DK Pos.	DK Sal.	FDRFT Pos.	FDRFT Sal.
1	Whit Merrifield	RIGHT	0.331	0.091	38.0%	9.8%	17.9%	37.4%	2B	$3,800	2B/OF	$4,000	N/A	N/A
2	Rosell Herrera	SWITCH	0.242	0.088	38.6%	4.7%	28.2%	56.1%	OF	$2,300	OF	$2,900	N/A	N/A
3	Salvador Perez	RIGHT	0.368	0.197	47.2%	2.4%	18.7%	33.7%	C	$3,100	C	$4,000	N/A	N/A
4	Lucas Duda	LEFT	0.374	0.183	43.6%	8.3%	25.4%	27.3%	1B	$2,600	1B	$3,600	N/A	N/A
5	Jorge Bonifacio	RIGHT	0.286	0.161	36.8%	9.5%	28.6%	24.3%	OF	$2,600	OF	$3,400	N/A	N/A
6	Hunter Dozier	RIGHT	0.266	0.143	47.2%	4.3%	31.7%	44.9%	1B	$2,300	1B	$2,800	N/A	N/A
7	Alex Gordon	LEFT	0.372	0.131	38.7%	7.2%	21.2%	48.5%	OF	$2,200	OF	$2,800	N/A	N/A
8	Brian Goodwin	LEFT	0.325	0.162	36.4%	10.4%	32.5%	50.0%	OF	$2,200	OF	$3,300	N/A	N/A
9	Adalberto Mondesi	RIGHT	0.359	0.169	45.5%	1.7%	25.0%	50.0%	SS	$2,800	2B/SS	$3,800	N/A	N/A
	Team Averages		0.325	0.147	41.3%	6.5%	25.5%	41.4%

Elite Plays – None

Secondary Plays – Lucas Duda (GPP)

Stackability – RED

NY Yankees

Brad Keller is a right-hander that doesn’t miss many bats. He’s kept the ball on the ground at a clip of nearly 60% in the majors this season, but he still doesn’t project to fare well here today. The NY stack doesn’t look as good without Aaron Judge, but Giancarlo Stanton and Didi Gregorius profile decently well against Keller. Gleyber Torres is an elite option if he draws a decent lineup spot, with the rest of the Yankees checking in as secondary plays. Aaron Hicks, Brett Gardner, Greg Bird and Miguel Andujar are solid stacking options.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

#	Player	Bats	xwOBA	ISO	HC%	BB%	K%	GB%	FD Pos.	FD Sal.	DK Pos.	DK Sal.	FDRFT Pos.	FDRFT Sal.
1	Brett Gardner	LEFT	0.302	0.157	28.6%	11.7%	14.7%	51.6%	OF	$3,200	OF	$4,700	N/A	N/A
2	Giancarlo Stanton	RIGHT	0.307	0.180	34.6%	7.8%	32.8%	51.3%	OF	$4,200	OF	$5,000	N/A	N/A
3	Didi Gregorius	LEFT	0.348	0.255	38.9%	8.3%	13.0%	34.3%	SS	$3,800	SS	$5,300	N/A	N/A
4	Aaron Hicks	SWITCH	0.352	0.182	38.5%	14.0%	19.3%	44.9%	OF	$3,300	OF	$4,400	N/A	N/A
5	Gleyber Torres	RIGHT	0.380	0.231	38.3%	6.3%	26.7%	30.7%	2B	$3,600	2B	$4,300	N/A	N/A
6	Greg Bird	LEFT	0.325	0.250	42.4%	8.3%	26.4%	36.3%	1B	$3,100	1B	$4,300	N/A	N/A
7	Miguel Andujar	RIGHT	0.347	0.177	37.6%	3.8%	17.2%	50.2%	3B	$3,400	3B	$4,300	N/A	N/A
8	Neil Walker	SWITCH	0.344	0.099	36.2%	10.8%	22.1%	39.1%	2B	$2,600	1B/2B	$3,900	N/A	N/A
9	Austin Romine	RIGHT	0.343	0.223	35.1%	10.2%	21.3%	42.5%	C	$2,500	C	$3,500	N/A	N/A
	Team Averages		0.339	0.195	36.7%	9.0%	21.5%	42.3%

Elite Plays – Giancarlo Stanton, Didi Gregorius, Gleyber Torres

Secondary Plays – Aaron Hicks, Greg Bird, Miguel Andujar, Brett Gardner

Stackability – GREEN

Chicago Cubs at St. Louis – 4:05 PM ET

Stats	wOBA	xwOBA	HC%	BB%	K%	GB%	Stats	wOBA	xwOBA	HC%	BB%	K%	GB%
Chicago Cubs								St. Louis
			Jose Quintana							Miles Mikolas
			LEFT							RIGHT
			Vegas Moneyline							Vegas Over/Under
			STL-108							8.5
SP vs. Left (2016-17)	0.294	0.301	30.3%	8.0%	26.0%	49.2%	SP vs. Left (2016-17)	0.298	0.321	37.6%	4.0%	16.2%	45.1%
SP vs. Right (2016-17)	0.330	0.347	39.6%	11.8%	19.2%	41.2%	SP vs. Right (2016-17)	0.220	0.265	26.7%	4.9%	19.6%	57.5%

Pitcher Grind Down

	Stats	Starts	SIERA	ERA	K%	BB%	GB%	HC%	SC%	aFV	SwS%
Jose Quintana
	FanDuel				DraftKings				FantasyDraft
	Salary:			$7,800	Salary:			$8,200	Salary:
	Salary Rank:			10 of 30	Salary Rank:			7 of 30	Salary Rank:
	2017	32	3.80	4.15	26.2%	7.7%	44.8%	32.6%	18.2%	92.1	8.5%
	2018	19	4.69	3.87	20.7%	10.9%	42.8%	37.6%	16.3%	91.4	7.9%
	L14	1	5.34	2.57	20.0%	13.3%	27.8%	25.0%	15.0%	91.0	5.8%

Jose Quintana has seen a pretty dramatic dip in his performance. The lefty has a meh strikeout rate of just 20.7% along with a high walk rate bordering on 11%. His 4.69 SIERA is a career-worst mark and he’s allowing 37.6% hard hits. He has looked pretty good over his last few starts, so maybe he’s figured something out. That said, Quintana has a wide platoon split and he’ll be facing a righty-heavy Cardinals lineup this afternoon. There are spots in which to target Quintana, but I’m not a fan of this one for him.

Quick Breakdown: Quintana has enough upside to play in GPPs, but I’d rather play a few Cardinal bats against him.

	Stats	Starts	SIERA	ERA	K%	BB%	GB%	HC%	SC%	aFV	SwS%
Miles Mikolas
	FanDuel				DraftKings				FantasyDraft
	Salary:			$8,000	Salary:			$8,000	Salary:
	Salary Rank:			9 of 30	Salary Rank:			9 of 30	Salary Rank:

	2018	20	3.99	2.82	17.7%	4.4%	50.4%	32.9%	19.7%	94.0	8.7%
	L14	2	4.38	5.00	19.5%	9.8%	50.0%	32.1%	7.1%	93.5	10.1%

Mikolas has been respectable for the Cardinals this season, but he’s not a guy that will ever carry a ton of upside for DFS purposes. Rather than racking up the Ks, the Lizard King is a guy that relies on generating soft-hit ground ball outs. His ground ball rate over 50% and low walk rate are nice attributes, but a matchup with the Cubs isn’t ideal. Mikolas has been worse against lefties this season, and the Cubs have some scary left-handed bats. I think he’s fine enough considering he’s unlikely to get shelled, but he’s never a guy to get overly excited about.

Quick Breakdown: Mikolas is the preferred pitcher in this game, but that’s not exactly a ringing endorsement.

Batter Grind Down

Chicago Cubs

Mikolas has held righties to a .220 wOBA this season. Considering Busch Stadium isn’t a very hitter-friendly setting in the first place, I’m fine with ignoring the Cubs right-handed bats today, especially since their best RHB, Kris Bryant, just hit the DL. Mikolas can be had by lefties, however, so Anthony Rizzo looks like an excellent play. Ian Happ, Kyle Schwarber and Jason Heyward are secondary options among the Chicago lefties here. Stacking against Mikolas isn’t necessary, so I prefer the Cubs lefties as one-offs.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

#	Player	Bats	xwOBA	ISO	HC%	BB%	K%	GB%	FD Pos.	FD Sal.	DK Pos.	DK Sal.	FDRFT Pos.	FDRFT Sal.
1	Anthony Rizzo	LEFT	0.396	0.195	35.2%	12.0%	10.0%	37.8%	1B	$4,000	1B	$4,800	N/A	N/A
2	Albert Almora	RIGHT	0.268	0.105	29.8%	5.3%	19.6%	50.0%	OF	$2,600	OF	$3,700	N/A	N/A
3	Jason Heyward	LEFT	0.357	0.160	32.9%	9.0%	10.2%	42.5%	OF	$2,900	OF	$4,100	N/A	N/A
4	Javier Baez	RIGHT	0.337	0.255	38.2%	3.1%	28.1%	43.9%	2B	$3,700	2B/SS	$4,700	N/A	N/A
5	Willson Contreras	RIGHT	0.314	0.153	31.0%	7.8%	19.6%	50.0%	C	$2,900	C	$4,100	N/A	N/A
6	Kyle Schwarber	LEFT	0.384	0.288	43.4%	16.1%	25.6%	41.7%	OF	$3,300	OF	$4,300	N/A	N/A
7	Ian Happ	SWITCH	0.370	0.219	43.7%	18.7%	34.2%	35.0%	OF	$2,700	OF	$4,200	N/A	N/A
8	Addison Russell	RIGHT	0.296	0.097	32.8%	8.7%	22.6%	41.0%	SS	$2,900	SS	$3,400	N/A	N/A
9	Jose Quintana	LEFT	0.070	0.000	18.8%	0.0%	40.7%	90.9%	P	$7,800	P	$8,200	N/A	N/A
	Team Averages		0.310	0.164	34.0%	9.0%	23.4%	48.1%

Elite Plays – Anthony Rizzo

Secondary Plays – Jason Heyward, Ian Happ, Kyle Schwarber

Stackability – ORANGE

St. Louis

Quintana has yielded a .330 wOBA with 11 home runs to righties this season, so the RHBs on the St. Louis side are desirable enough. Marcell Ozuna hasn’t had the same power upside this season, but you have to imagine the dongs will be there at some point. Jose Martinez, Tommy Pham and Yadier Molina are also hitters with fine track records against southpaws. I don’t really want to target lefties against Quintana, but you can play Matt Carpenter in tournaments where I imagine he’ll be somewhat low-owned. I think a stack of Cards (get it?) is viable given Quintana’s tendency to get blown up on occasion.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. LH Pitching)

#	Player	Bats	xwOBA	ISO	HC%	BB%	K%	GB%	FD Pos.	FD Sal.	DK Pos.	DK Sal.	FDRFT Pos.	FDRFT Sal.
1	Matt Carpenter	LEFT	0.430	0.369	55.7%	16.8%	22.8%	37.3%	3B	$4,000	1B/3B	$5,200	N/A	N/A
2	Yadier Molina	RIGHT	0.430	0.158	39.6%	7.8%	14.1%	20.8%	C	$3,000	C	$4,000	N/A	N/A
3	Paul DeJong	RIGHT	0.298	0.170	29.4%	12.3%	26.3%	35.3%	SS	$3,300	SS	$4,000	N/A	N/A
4	Jose Martinez	RIGHT	0.335	0.088	33.3%	11.7%	14.3%	40.4%	1B	$2,800	1B	$3,900	N/A	N/A
5	Marcell Ozuna	RIGHT	0.328	0.119	41.8%	6.5%	19.6%	53.7%	OF	$2,800	OF	$3,400	N/A	N/A
6	Tommy Pham	RIGHT	0.436	0.107	46.6%	13.6%	19.3%	53.4%	OF	$3,000	OF	$4,600	N/A	N/A
7	Dexter Fowler	SWITCH	0.324	0.151	43.2%	11.3%	27.4%	48.6%	OF	$3,000	OF	$3,800	N/A	N/A
8	Yairo Munoz	RIGHT	0.308	0.255	32.4%	11.9%	25.4%	45.9%	SS	$2,600	SS	$4,200	N/A	N/A
9	Miles Mikolas	RIGHT	0.151	0.000	20.0%	0.0%	58.3%	0.0%	P	$8,000	P	$8,000	N/A	N/A
	Team Averages		0.338	0.157	38.0%	10.2%	25.3%	37.3%

Elite Plays – Marcell Ozuna, Yadier Molina, Jose Martinez, Tommy Pham

Secondary Plays – Jedd Gyorko, Matt Carpenter

Stackability – YELLOW

Cleveland at Detroit – 6:10 PM ET

Stats	wOBA	xwOBA	HC%	BB%	K%	GB%	Stats	wOBA	xwOBA	HC%	BB%	K%	GB%
Cleveland								Detroit
			Mike Clevinger							Blaine Hardy
			RIGHT							LEFT
			Vegas Moneyline							Vegas Over/Under
			CLE-167							9.0
SP vs. Left (2016-17)	0.310	0.340	36.2%	10.9%	20.3%	41.3%	SP vs. Left (2016-17)	0.260	0.316	31.5%	3.0%	13.4%	47.2%
SP vs. Right (2016-17)	0.285	0.275	34.4%	5.9%	27.0%	40.9%	SP vs. Right (2016-17)	0.331	0.296	38.4%	7.0%	20.4%	42.6%

Pitcher Grind Down

	Stats	Starts	SIERA	ERA	K%	BB%	GB%	HC%	SC%	aFV	SwS%
Mike Clevinger
	FanDuel				DraftKings				FantasyDraft
	Salary:			$9,400	Salary:			$10,300	Salary:
	Salary Rank:			5 of 30	Salary Rank:			5 of 30	Salary Rank:
	2017	21	4.24	3.11	27.3%	12.0%	39.5%	34.2%	18.6%	92.5	12.5%
	2018	20	4.04	3.43	23.8%	8.4%	41.1%	35.3%	17.0%	93.3	11.4%
	L14	2	3.76	4.26	28.3%	9.4%	33.3%	36.4%	24.2%	93.7	9.6%

Mike Clevinger is the top option on the 3-game early slate. This is more than I ever want to pay for him, but it’s hard to argue. Clevinger carries solid strikeout upside (23.8% Ks this season) and he’s slashed his walk rate from where it was in years past. He does allow a decent amount of hard contact, but the Tigers lineup on the other side today is a weak one. Detroit can be pesky at times, but it’s hard to get too picky on a 3-game slate. I think the play is to roster Clevinger here and move on.

Quick Breakdown: Clevinger is the best pitching option on the limited early slate.

	Stats	Starts	SIERA	ERA	K%	BB%	GB%	HC%	SC%	aFV	SwS%
Blaine Hardy
	FanDuel				DraftKings				FantasyDraft
	Salary:			$5,500	Salary:			$5,200	Salary:
	Salary Rank:			27 of 30	Salary Rank:			23 of 30	Salary Rank:
	2017	0	4.66	5.94	18.0%	8.3%	33.0%	36.5%	20.0%	89.9	10.0%
	2018	9	4.30	3.77	18.4%	5.9%	44.0%	36.3%	19.6%	87.9	8.2%
	L14	1	1.75	8.31	21.1%	0.0%	73.3%	46.7%	20.0%	88.7	9.2%

While Mike Clevinger is the best option on the early slate, Blaine Hardy is the worst. He enters Saturday with a middling K-rate of 18.4% while allowing a hard contact rate north of 36%. His 4.30 SIERA is quite a bit worse than his 3.77 ERA, and today he’ll be facing a loaded Indians lineup in his hitter-friendly home park. The potential risk outweighs the potential reward that comes with trying to roster Hardy today, so I’d stay away.

Quick Breakdown: Fade Hardy against the Tribe.

Batter Grind Down

Cleveland

Blaine Hardy has only allowed 6 home runs in his 19 appearances, but he’s a lefty that doesn’t miss many bats and the Indians have been one of the hottest offenses in baseball for weeks now. Hardy has been quite effective against left-handed bats, but the Tribe have more than enough righties in the lineup capable of making his afternoon a nightmare. Jose Ramirez, Francisco Lindor and Edwin Encarnacion are each elite plays, either individually or as a part of a stack. Yan Gomes is a catcher with power, while Rajai Davis is in play if he gets a favorable lineup spot. Brandon Guyer is a value option. Michael Brantley is also a good enough hitter to play lefty-on-lefty. Ignore the lefties (except Brantley), stack the righties against Hardy.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. LH Pitching)

#	Player	Bats	xwOBA	ISO	HC%	BB%	K%	GB%	FD Pos.	FD Sal.	DK Pos.	DK Sal.	FDRFT Pos.	FDRFT Sal.
1	Francisco Lindor	SWITCH	0.416	0.223	42.9%	9.5%	11.9%	45.4%	SS	$4,600	SS	$5,400	N/A	N/A
2	Michael Brantley	LEFT	0.320	0.115	25.3%	4.9%	8.8%	54.0%	OF	$3,400	OF	$4,200	N/A	N/A
3	Jose Ramirez	SWITCH	0.380	0.241	41.2%	6.0%	9.5%	40.6%	3B	$5,000	3B	$5,800	N/A	N/A
4	Edwin Encarnacion	RIGHT	0.378	0.133	45.2%	15.3%	21.4%	27.4%	1B	$4,100	1B	$4,500	N/A	N/A
5	Brandon Guyer	RIGHT	0.389	0.257	36.8%	11.9%	15.5%	38.6%	OF	$3,100	OF	$3,500	N/A	N/A
6	Melky Cabrera	SWITCH	0.249	0.118	46.2%	5.6%	22.2%	61.5%	OF	$2,100	OF	$3,800	N/A	N/A
7	Jason Kipnis	LEFT	0.325	0.181	34.4%	11.6%	21.1%	30.2%	2B	$3,100	2B	$3,700	N/A	N/A
8	Yan Gomes	RIGHT	0.416	0.268	53.1%	9.9%	27.2%	26.5%	C	$2,300	C	$3,700	N/A	N/A
9	Rajai Davis	RIGHT	0.275	0.000	32.3%	6.2%	17.3%	46.8%	OF	$2,100	OF	$3,300	N/A	N/A
	Team Averages		0.350	0.171	39.7%	9.0%	17.2%	41.2%

Elite Plays – Edwin Encarnacion, Jose Ramirez, Francisco Lindor, Michael Brantley

Secondary Plays – Yan Gomes, Rajai Davis, Brandon Guyer

Stackability – GREEN

Detroit

I’m never a fan of the Tigers offense in general, but this is a decent spot to hedge on what figures to be a pretty chalky Mike Clevinger. Clev does have a vulnerability to lefties, so perhaps the 3-man lefty stack of Niko Goodrum, Leonys Martin and Jeimer Candelario makes some sense in GPPs. Victor Martinez is also cheap, but he’s also pretty bad at this stage of his career. I think you can fade Detroit bats in cash, but a few of their lefties are viable as tournament fliers.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

#	Player	Bats	xwOBA	ISO	HC%	BB%	K%	GB%	FD Pos.	FD Sal.	DK Pos.	DK Sal.	FDRFT Pos.	FDRFT Sal.
1	Leonys Martin	LEFT	0.398	0.164	41.9%	10.5%	21.5%	38.7%	OF	$2,800	OF	$3,600	N/A	N/A
2	Jeimer Candelario	SWITCH	0.301	0.202	34.6%	11.9%	24.6%	38.2%	3B	$3,200	3B	$3,700	N/A	N/A
3	Nick Castellanos	RIGHT	0.382	0.192	49.1%	5.9%	23.4%	34.2%	OF	$3,000	OF	$3,800	N/A	N/A
4	Niko Goodrum	SWITCH	0.329	0.220	35.5%	8.9%	32.2%	40.3%	2B	$2,800	2B/OF	$3,400	N/A	N/A
5	Victor Martinez	SWITCH	0.341	0.070	41.4%	7.2%	9.2%	39.9%	C	$2,600	1B	$2,900	N/A	N/A
6	Jim Adduci	LEFT	0.202	0.133	23.8%	6.3%	28.1%	52.4%	OF	$2,000	1B	$3,100	N/A	N/A
7	John Hicks	RIGHT	0.288	0.154	41.1%	6.2%	30.3%	43.0%	1B	$2,400	1B/C	$3,200	N/A	N/A
8	Jose Iglesias	RIGHT	0.267	0.097	24.2%	3.5%	10.9%	46.8%	SS	$2,600	SS	$3,200	N/A	N/A
9	Victor Reyes	RIGHT	0.236	0.047	30.3%	1.2%	22.1%	52.3%	OF	$2,100	OF	$2,900	N/A	N/A
	Team Averages		0.305	0.142	35.8%	6.8%	22.5%	42.9%

Elite Plays – Leonys Martin

Secondary Plays – Jeimer Candelario, Niko Goodrum, Victor Martinez

Stackability – ORANGE

Philadelphia at Cincinnati – 6:40 PM ET

Stats	wOBA	xwOBA	HC%	BB%	K%	GB%	Stats	wOBA	xwOBA	HC%	BB%	K%	GB%
Philadelphia								Cincinnati
			Vince Velasquez							Matt Harvey
			RIGHT							RIGHT
			Vegas Moneyline							Vegas Over/Under
			PHI-110							9.0
SP vs. Left (2016-17)	0.325	0.301	32.1%	10.0%	26.1%	37.1%	SP vs. Left (2016-17)	0.364	0.380	43.4%	6.4%	16.7%	37.6%
SP vs. Right (2016-17)	0.273	0.275	30.3%	7.5%	29.6%	39.2%	SP vs. Right (2016-17)	0.316	0.333	35.9%	5.4%	18.1%	48.0%

Pitcher Grind Down

	Stats	Starts	SIERA	ERA	K%	BB%	GB%	HC%	SC%	aFV	SwS%
Vince Velasquez
	FanDuel				DraftKings				FantasyDraft
	Salary:			$8,700	Salary:			$7,800	Salary:
	Salary Rank:			7 of 30	Salary Rank:			10 of 30	Salary Rank:
	2017	15	4.73	5.13	21.6%	10.8%	42.5%	38.1%	15.2%	93.9	9.1%
	2018	19	3.66	4.05	27.8%	8.7%	38.1%	31.2%	17.3%	94.0	11.8%
	L14	1	3.39	0.00	27.6%	6.9%	41.2%	16.7%	16.7%	93.9	13.1%

Vince Velasquez has taken a big step forward this season, as evidenced by his strikeout rate just under 28%. He has also cut his walks this year while bringing the hard contact against him down to a more manageable level. The right-hander always carries massive upside, and Great American Ballpark is one of the better parks in the league for strikeouts. The problem here is that Velasquez is a fly ball pitcher, and GAB also happens to be one of the best parks in the league for home runs. He has allowed 13 home runs on the year, 10 of which have come from left-handed hitters. The Reds have some lefty power capable of taking advantage. I love the upside here in tournaments, and I also think you can go here in cash games if you’re somewhat risk tolerant.

Quick Breakdown: There is plenty of risk in the matchup, but Velasquez is an appealing option thanks to his upside.

	Stats	Starts	SIERA	ERA	K%	BB%	GB%	HC%	SC%	aFV	SwS%
Matt Harvey
	FanDuel				DraftKings				FantasyDraft
	Salary:			$6,000	Salary:			$5,300	Salary:
	Salary Rank:			22 of 30	Salary Rank:			22 of 30	Salary Rank:
	2017	18	5.44	6.70	15.6%	10.9%	43.0%	32.5%	24.1%	93.8	7.5%
	2018	17	4.46	5.21	17.4%	5.9%	42.8%	39.6%	16.2%	93.8	8.3%
	L14	2	4.32	9.35	17.5%	5.0%	48.3%	51.6%	16.1%	94.5	7.8%

Matt Harvey got blown to smithereens last time out, which brought back plenty of memories. While he has generally been better since moving to Cincinnati, his overall numbers still leave much to be desired. Harvey has a 17.4% strikeout rate along with a 4.45 SIERA and a gross 39.6% hard-hit rate. The Phillies are one of the highest-strikeout teams in the majors this season against right-handed pitching, but it sure looks like Harvey no longer has the skills necessary to actually generate many whiffs. The price tag on Harvey is fair, but again, there is hefty risk in playing any pitcher in this park, let alone one as hittable as Harvey. If you must use a pitcher in this game I’d find the extra funds to just get up to Velasquez.

Quick Breakdown: Harvey is an easy fade.

Batter Grind Down

Philadelphia

Matt Harvey is a low-strikeout right-hander pitching in one of the best home run parks in baseball today. He has also yielded a .364 wOBA and 10 homers on the year to lefties, and the Phillies have plenty of those. Odubel Herrera, Cesar Hernandez, Nick Williams and Carlos Santana each grade out as excellent options here. Rhys Hoskins has also been on quite the heater lately, and Harvey doesn’t exactly become a dominant force against righties. Maikel Franco is also a playable option if you’re looking for a third baseman with some home run upside. You can just about always stack against Harvey.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

#	Player	Bats	xwOBA	ISO	HC%	BB%	K%	GB%	FD Pos.	FD Sal.	DK Pos.	DK Sal.	FDRFT Pos.	FDRFT Sal.
1	Cesar Hernandez	SWITCH	0.317	0.127	24.3%	13.3%	22.4%	43.3%	2B	$3,200	2B	$4,600	N/A	N/A
2	Asdrubal Cabrera	SWITCH	0.365	0.250	43.6%	8.1%	20.4%	40.3%	2B	$3,300	2B	$4,600	SS	$9,300
3	Rhys Hoskins	RIGHT	0.380	0.279	35.8%	11.6%	26.0%	27.4%	OF	$4,300	OF	$5,500	N/A	N/A
4	Odubel Herrera	LEFT	0.306	0.197	26.8%	7.0%	21.2%	40.3%	OF	$3,700	OF	$4,700	N/A	N/A
5	Carlos Santana	SWITCH	0.373	0.187	34.5%	20.4%	14.9%	39.4%	1B	$3,900	1B	$4,400	N/A	N/A
6	Maikel Franco	RIGHT	0.331	0.227	26.0%	5.4%	14.2%	53.1%	3B	$3,300	3B	$4,100	N/A	N/A
7	Nick Williams	LEFT	0.386	0.224	35.0%	9.0%	22.6%	44.6%	OF	$3,000	OF	$4,500	N/A	N/A
8	Jorge Alfaro	RIGHT	0.279	0.149	31.8%	4.1%	37.9%	53.3%	C	$2,900	C	$3,600	N/A	N/A
9	Vince Velasquez	RIGHT	0.193	0.000	16.7%	0.0%	28.0%	86.7%	P	$8,700	P	$7,800	N/A	N/A
	Team Averages		0.326	0.182	30.5%	8.8%	23.1%	47.6%

Elite Plays – Nick Williams, Odubel Herrera, Cesar Hernandez, Carlos Santana, Rhys Hoskins

Secondary Plays – Maikel Franco

Stackability – GREEN / YELLOW

Cincinnati

As mentioned previously, Velasquez has struggled a bit against left-handed hitters. The Reds aren’t a great team in general, but they do have a solid offense. The lefty stack of Joey Votto, Scooter Gennett and Tucker Barnhart is viable in GPPs here. Eugenio Suarez has also been on a rampage, and he’s just a good hitter in general, so feel free to fire him up as a part of your stack despite not having the platoon edge against Velasquez. I wouldn’t go crazy on the Reds but I do like them as a tournament option.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

#	Player	Bats	xwOBA	ISO	HC%	BB%	K%	GB%	FD Pos.	FD Sal.	DK Pos.	DK Sal.	FDRFT Pos.	FDRFT Sal.
1	Jose Peraza	RIGHT	0.306	0.105	32.0%	6.0%	12.1%	36.6%	SS	$3,100	SS	$4,300	N/A	N/A
2	Scooter Gennett	LEFT	0.360	0.190	39.6%	8.2%	17.0%	37.7%	2B	$3,500	2B	$4,900	N/A	N/A
3	Joey Votto	LEFT	0.458	0.168	38.8%	18.9%	12.8%	33.3%	1B	$4,000	1B	$4,700	N/A	N/A
4	Eugenio Suarez	RIGHT	0.381	0.255	51.1%	9.2%	23.1%	35.6%	3B	$4,100	3B	$5,100	N/A	N/A
5	Tucker Barnhart	SWITCH	0.332	0.110	39.9%	9.7%	16.9%	41.1%	C	$2,700	C	$3,800	N/A	N/A
6	Adam Duvall	RIGHT	0.341	0.191	33.3%	6.9%	27.8%	33.3%	OF	$3,000	OF	$3,900	N/A	N/A
7	Phillip Ervin	RIGHT	0.312	0.020	30.6%	7.1%	25.0%	36.1%	OF	$2,400	OF	$4,000	N/A	N/A
8	Matt Harvey	RIGHT	0.178	0.000	19.1%	6.3%	28.1%	58.8%	P	$6,000	P	$5,300	N/A	N/A
9	Billy Hamilton	SWITCH	0.245	0.069	20.1%	10.4%	24.2%	46.0%	OF	$2,400	OF	$3,500	N/A	N/A
	Team Averages		0.324	0.123	33.8%	9.2%	20.8%	39.8%

Elite Plays – Joey Votto, Scooter Gennett

Secondary Plays – Tucker Barnhart, Eugenio Suarez

Stackability – ORANGE

NY Mets at Pittsburgh – 7:05 PM ET

Stats	wOBA	xwOBA	HC%	BB%	K%	GB%	Stats	wOBA	xwOBA	HC%	BB%	K%	GB%
NY Mets								Pittsburgh
			Jacob deGrom							Trevor Williams
			RIGHT							RIGHT
			Vegas Moneyline							Vegas Over/Under
			NYM-130							7.5
SP vs. Left (2016-17)	0.266	0.268	26.7%	6.1%	30.3%	42.9%	SP vs. Left (2016-17)	0.300	0.348	29.7%	8.6%	10.9%	41.8%
SP vs. Right (2016-17)	0.217	0.255	31.6%	6.4%	31.4%	48.7%	SP vs. Right (2016-17)	0.307	0.346	34.0%	8.2%	21.9%	39.9%

Pitcher Grind Down

	Stats	Starts	SIERA	ERA	K%	BB%	GB%	HC%	SC%	aFV	SwS%
Jacob deGrom
	FanDuel				DraftKings				FantasyDraft
	Salary:			$11,800	Salary:			$12,900	Salary:		$24,800
	Salary Rank:			2 of 30	Salary Rank:			2 of 30	Salary Rank:		2 of 30
	2017	31	3.44	3.53	28.9%	7.1%	45.3%	31.9%	21.3%	95.2	13.3%
	2018	20	2.97	1.71	30.8%	6.2%	45.7%	29.1%	24.7%	95.5	15.2%
	L14	1	3.01	2.25	32.3%	6.5%	31.6%	21.1%	47.4%	96.6	12.4%

Jacob deGrom has been arguably the best pitcher in the NL this season. He has an elite 30.8% strikeout rate, he’s not walking anybody and he has conceded a hard contact rate under 30%. His soft contact rate of 24.7% is also the third-best in baseball behind only Chris Sale and Zack Wheeler. While his SIERA is over a full run higher than his 1.71 ERA, both numbers are still quite strong. DeGrom will be facing a Pirates lineup without a lot of strikeouts in it tonight, but that’s really the only strike against him. PNC Park is favorable for pitchers, so deGrom is once again one of the best plays on the slate.

Quick Breakdown: DeGrom is right there with Justin Verlander as one of the top options on the board.

	Stats	Starts	SIERA	ERA	K%	BB%	GB%	HC%	SC%	aFV	SwS%
Trevor Williams
	FanDuel				DraftKings				FantasyDraft
	Salary:			$6,600	Salary:			$7,400	Salary:		$14,900
	Salary Rank:			18 of 30	Salary Rank:			14 of 30	Salary Rank:		7 of 30
	2017	25	4.63	4.07	18.2%	8.1%	48.0%	28.9%	21.8%	92.1	8.4%
	2018	20	4.94	4.11	16.4%	8.4%	40.9%	31.7%	21.3%	90.4	7.3%
	L14	1	6.48	0.00	4.2%	8.3%	47.6%	38.1%	14.3%	89.7	3.6%

Trevor Williams will get to face a weakened Mets lineup without the recently-traded Asdrubal Cabrera tonight, but there isn’t much to like about his skill set from a DFS perspective. The right-hander has a mediocre strikeout rate of 16.4% along with a 4.94 SIERA. He also doesn’t come with the longest leash. He hasn’t thrown more than 84 pitches in a start since June 18. If you’re going to roster a guy with low strikeout potential, you at least want him to be pitching deep into games. The matchup and ballpark are both to his advantage, but there are better options to consider for your SP2.

Quick Breakdown: I have pretty much zero interest in Trevor Williams.

Batter Grind Down

NY Mets

The loss of Asdrubal Cabrera and Yoenis Cespedes obviously weakens this lineup considerably, but Trevor Williams is a hittable right-hander. I don’t think stacking the Mets is something worth considering outside of a large field GPP flier, but some of their bats do grade out as decent enough individual options. Michael Conforto and Brandon Nimmo are the top plays. Rookie Jeff McNeil disappointed in his big league debut last night, but he was a good hitter in the minors and he’ll carry the platoon advantage against Williams. I like him as a source of salary relief. Wilmer Flores is also cheap if you’re in the market for an affordable corner infielder.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

#	Player	Bats	xwOBA	ISO	HC%	BB%	K%	GB%	FD Pos.	FD Sal.	DK Pos.	DK Sal.	FDRFT Pos.	FDRFT Sal.
1	Amed Rosario	RIGHT	0.284	0.123	27.3%	5.3%	19.5%	48.9%	SS	$3,000	SS	$3,600	SS	$7,500
2	Brandon Nimmo	LEFT	0.370	0.249	36.6%	13.3%	27.5%	35.4%	OF	$3,300	OF	$4,900	LF	$8,700
3	Wilmer Flores	RIGHT	0.321	0.227	35.7%	8.2%	8.8%	36.4%	1B	$2,900	1B/3B	$3,700	3B	$7,200
4	Michael Conforto	LEFT	0.349	0.154	35.4%	17.0%	20.8%	38.5%	OF	$3,200	OF	$4,500	LF	$8,900
5	Jose Bautista	RIGHT	0.346	0.179	43.2%	15.1%	29.5%	30.9%	OF	$2,900	3B/OF	$4,200	IF/OF	$8,300
6	Jeff McNeil	LEFT	0.484	0.000	0.0%	33.3%	0.0%	50.0%	2B	$2,200	3B	$3,200	2B	$6,500
7	Devin Mesoraco	RIGHT	0.324	0.182	33.6%	6.2%	18.6%	31.1%	C	$2,600	C	$3,400	C	$6,400
8	Jose Reyes	SWITCH	0.242	0.054	18.9%	9.0%	17.2%	50.6%	3B	$2,100	3B/SS	$3,700	SS	$7,500
9	Jacob deGrom	RIGHT	0.158	0.000	0.0%	4.0%	32.0%	38.5%	P	$11,800	P	$12,900	P	$24,800
	Team Averages		0.320	0.130	25.6%	12.4%	19.3%	40.0%

Elite Plays – Michael Conforto, Brandon Nimmo

Secondary Plays – Jeff McNeil, Wilmer Flores

Stackability – ORANGE

Pittsburgh

The Pirates have one of the lowest implied team totals on the board tonight against Jacob deGrom. He’s been impeccable so far this season, so I don’t see the need to be loading up on bats against him. Fading the Pirates completely is probably in your best interests.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

#	Player	Bats	xwOBA	ISO	HC%	BB%	K%	GB%	FD Pos.	FD Sal.	DK Pos.	DK Sal.	FDRFT Pos.	FDRFT Sal.
1	Jordan Luplow	RIGHT	0.377	0.333	35.7%	6.3%	6.3%	53.8%	OF	$2,200	OF	$3,200	LF	$6,700
2	Starling Marte	RIGHT	0.340	0.206	32.1%	5.5%	19.0%	45.5%	OF	$3,500	OF	$4,400	CF	$8,400
3	Gregory Polanco	LEFT	0.382	0.279	37.3%	12.8%	22.1%	34.1%	OF	$3,600	OF	$4,000	RF	$7,300
4	Colin Moran	LEFT	0.362	0.147	33.2%	8.0%	16.1%	41.7%	3B	$2,100	3B	$3,000	3B	$5,800
5	Josh Bell	SWITCH	0.342	0.139	31.4%	10.6%	16.6%	50.0%	1B	$2,700	1B	$3,600	1B	$7,300
6	Francisco Cervelli	RIGHT	0.400	0.229	36.4%	13.6%	19.9%	35.6%	C	$2,600	C	$3,000	C	$5,500
7	Josh Harrison	RIGHT	0.274	0.099	28.0%	3.8%	16.8%	37.3%	2B	$2,700	2B	$3,000	2B	$5,500
8	Jordy Mercer	RIGHT	0.315	0.138	28.2%	7.2%	23.4%	39.4%	SS	$2,200	SS	$2,900	SS	$5,500
9	Trevor Williams	RIGHT	0.169	0.000	0.0%	3.8%	30.8%	60.0%	P	$6,600	P	$7,400	P	$14,900
	Team Averages		0.329	0.174	29.1%	8.0%	19.0%	44.2%

Elite Plays – None

Secondary Plays – None

Stackability – RED

Note: Unless noted, all statistics in the Grind Down are from the 2018 season.

MLB Grind Down: Saturday, July 28th

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Stackability Rating System:

Implied Run Totals

Ballpark Ratings

Kansas City at NY Yankees – 1:05 PM ET

Pitcher Grind Down

Batter Grind Down

Kansas City

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

NY Yankees

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

Chicago Cubs at St. Louis – 4:05 PM ET

Pitcher Grind Down

Batter Grind Down

Chicago Cubs

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

St. Louis

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. LH Pitching)

Cleveland at Detroit – 6:10 PM ET

Pitcher Grind Down

Batter Grind Down

Cleveland

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. LH Pitching)

Detroit

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

Philadelphia at Cincinnati – 6:40 PM ET

Pitcher Grind Down

Batter Grind Down

Philadelphia

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

Cincinnati

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

NY Mets at Pittsburgh – 7:05 PM ET

Pitcher Grind Down

Batter Grind Down

NY Mets

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

Pittsburgh

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

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