MLB Grind Down: Saturday, June 11th

by Derek Farnsworth (Notorious) Last Updated 2016-06-12 13:40:54

The RotoGrinders MLB Grind Down will give you an in-depth analysis into the upcoming MLB schedule. This article will break down the numbers for every single game and give you analysis on which trends you can exploit. While matchups are a major factor in daily fantasy baseball, there are plenty of other factors to consider such as injuries, weather, and salaries.

The analysis should point you in the right direction, but it is still up to you to decipher the information and make your own selections. No sport has more variance than baseball. The best choice is not always the right choice but following the trends will win you money over time.

Note: As always, if you want to try a new DFS site, be sure to click through a RotoGrinders link and use our DraftKings promo code and FanDuel promo code to receive the best perks in the industry.

Philadelphia at Washington – 12:05 PM ET

Stats	wOBA	HR All.	K%	BB%	Stats	wOBA	HR All.	K%	BB%
Philadelphia					Washington
			Aaron Nola					Tanner Roark
			RIGHT					RIGHT
			Vegas Moneyline					Vegas Over/Under
			WAS -160					7.5
SP vs. Left	0.300	8	18.5%	7.4%	SP vs. Left	0.331	11	15.8%	9.0%
SP vs. Right	0.260	10	28.6%	3.9%	SP vs. Right	0.301	11	19.0%	4.9%

Pitcher Grind Down

Statistics	Starts	PitchPS	SIERA	ERA	K%	BB%	SS%	GB%	FB%	HH%
Aaron Nola
					FanDuel			DraftKings
					Salary:		$9,400	Salary:
					FPPG:		40.0	FPPG:
					Pitcher Rating:		70.8	Pitcher Rank:		13
L14 Days	2	99.5	3.03	1.50	29.4%	5.9%	10.6%	40.6%	34.4%	33.3%
2016	12	95.8	2.88	2.65	27.2%	4.8%	10.5%	53.9%	25.7%	24.2%
2015	13	85.9	3.66	3.59	21.4%	6.0%	8.6%	47.6%	32.4%	28.8%

This game is included in the all-day slate on FanDuel, but not on DraftKings, which is why you won’t see salaries for DK. Nola has flashed some nice upside this season, posting a 2.88 SIERA with a strikeout rate of 27.2%. He doesn’t walk many batters and he induces a high ground ball rate. The problem is that he is a large underdog on the road. I’ll label him as a deep GPP play for today’s game.

Statistics	Starts	PitchPS	SIERA	ERA	K%	BB%	SS%	GB%	FB%	HH%
Tanner Roark
					FanDuel			DraftKings
					Salary:		$7,900	Salary:
					FPPG:		32.0	FPPG:
					Pitcher Rating:		78.3	Pitcher Rank:		5
L14 Days	2	79.5	4.20	6.30	16.7%	7.1%	9.4%	53.3%	23.3%	15.6%
2016	12	101.1	3.92	3.21	21.2%	8.8%	8.5%	54.2%	22.4%	20.5%
2015	12	150.0	4.16	4.38	15.0%	5.6%	7.1%	47.8%	30.6%	26.3%

Roark has turned into a viable option in daily fantasy. In 12 starts this season, he has a 3.92 SIERA with a strikeout rate of 21.2%. A lot of his strikeouts came in one start, but it’s nice to see him generating more swings and misses. He draws one of the top matchups on the board today, as the Phillies are ranked 28th in team wOBA and 18th in team K% against right-handed pitching.

Batter Grind Down

Philadelphia

The Phillies got off to a quick start last night against Stephen Strasburg, but he eventually settled down and the Nationals won the game easily. They come into today’s game with the second lowest team total on the board. If you are really looking to target a Phillies’ hitter, Tanner Roark has allowed a .331 wOBA to left-handed hitters over the last two seasons.

Phillies Offense (2016)
Team wOBA vs. RHP — 0.288 (28 of 30)
Team ISO vs. RHP — 0.144 (21 of 30)
Team K% vs. RHP — 21.7% (18 of 30)
Runs Per Game — 3.20 (29 of 30)
Projected Run Total — 3.40 (29 of 30)

Projected Lineup

#	Player	Bats	wOBA vs. RHP	ISO vs. RHP	wOBA L14	FD Position	FD Salary	DK Position	DK Salary
1	Odubel Herrera	LEFT	0.357	0.133	0.306	OF	$3,300
2	Cesar Hernandez	SWITCH	0.291	0.084	0.316	2B	$2,700
3	Maikel Franco	RIGHT	0.336	0.190	0.256	3B	$2,900
4	Tommy Joseph	RIGHT	0.346	0.318	0.406	1B	$2,400
5	Cameron Rupp	RIGHT	0.287	0.140	0.331	C	$2,400
6	Freddy Galvis	SWITCH	0.291	0.125	0.247	SS	$2,600
7	Cody Asche	LEFT	0.303	0.162	0.229	OF	$2,200
8	Tyler Goeddel	RIGHT	0.300	0.173	0.282	OF	$2,000
9	Aaron Nola	RIGHT	0.112	0.027	0.000	P	$9,400
	Team Averages	—	0.291	0.150	0.264	—	—	—	—

Elite Plays – NONE

Secondary Plays – Odubel Herrera

Stackability – NONE

Washington

The Nationals draw a difficult matchup against young Aaron Nola, who is quickly becoming a star before our eyes. In addition to an elite strikeout rate, Nola has held both left and right-handed hitters under a .300 wOBA. While I don’t mind Bryce Harper or Daniel Murphy, they are both a bit overpriced given the matchup.

Nationals Offense (2016)
Team wOBA vs. RHP — 0.313 (14 of 30)
Team ISO vs. RHP — 0.168 (13 of 30)
Team K% vs. RHP — 20.5% (14 of 30)
Runs Per Game — 4.56 (11 of 30)
Projected Run Total — 4.10 (16 of 30)

Projected Lineup

#	Player	Bats	wOBA vs. RHP	ISO vs. RHP	wOBA L14	FD Position	FD Salary	DK Position	DK Salary
1	Ben Revere	LEFT	0.300	0.073	0.210	OF	$2,900
2	Jayson Werth	RIGHT	0.281	0.135	0.365	OF	$3,600
3	Bryce Harper	LEFT	0.455	0.333	0.349	OF	$4,000
4	Daniel Murphy	LEFT	0.377	0.217	0.406	2B	$4,300
5	Wilson Ramos	RIGHT	0.300	0.143	0.469	C	$3,600
6	Ryan Zimmerman	RIGHT	0.308	0.182	0.427	1B	$3,400
7	Anthony Rendon	RIGHT	0.311	0.125	0.437	3B	$3,300
8	Danny Espinosa	SWITCH	0.298	0.171	0.397	SS	$2,900
9	Tanner Roark	RIGHT	0.105	0.053	0.000	P	$7,900
	Team Averages	—	0.304	0.159	0.340	—	—	—	—

Elite Plays – NONE

Secondary Plays – Bryce Harper, Daniel Murphy

Stackability – NONE

Baltimore at Toronto – 1:07 PM ET

Stats	wOBA	HR All.	K%	BB%	Stats	wOBA	HR All.	K%	BB%
Baltimore					Toronto
			Mike Wright					J.A. Happ
			RIGHT					LEFT
			Vegas Moneyline					Vegas Over/Under
			TOR -144					9.5
SP vs. Left	0.404	8	13.9%	6.9%	SP vs. Left	0.282	2	23.8%	6.6%
SP vs. Right	0.335	10	15.6%	9.1%	SP vs. Right	0.311	23	18.1%	6.8%

Pitcher Grind Down

Statistics	Starts	PitchPS	SIERA	ERA	K%	BB%	SS%	GB%	FB%	HH%
Mike Wright
					FanDuel			DraftKings
					Salary:		$6,300	Salary:		$5,700
					FPPG:		20.7	FPPG:		9.5
					Pitcher Rating:		32.0	Pitcher Rank:		28
L14 Days	3	88.7	4.75	5.65	15.9%	6.4%	5.3%	36.7%	42.9%	38.8%
2016	10	97.0	4.64	5.14	16.6%	7.5%	6.3%	42.6%	35.2%	29.1%
2015	9	87.2	5.28	6.04	12.8%	8.8%	7.3%	37.7%	42.9%	29.7%

Wright has been an easy pitcher to pick on this season. He currently sports a 4.64 SIERA with a strikeout rate of only 16.6%. He draws one of the toughest matchups in all of baseball, as he has to face the Blue Jays in Toronto. The Rogers Centre one of the best hitter’s parks in all of baseball. With the exception of Marco Estrada, there are few fly-ball pitchers that succeed here.

Statistics	Starts	PitchPS	SIERA	ERA	K%	BB%	SS%	GB%	FB%	HH%
J.A. Happ
					FanDuel			DraftKings
					Salary:		$7,700	Salary:		$6,800
					FPPG:		29.4	FPPG:		14.5
					Pitcher Rating:		65.0	Pitcher Rank:		16
L14 Days	3	94.7	4.90	4.00	15.1%	9.6%	6.3%	50.9%	30.9%	41.8%
2016	12	92.7	4.75	3.57	15.7%	7.9%	8.4%	44.7%	34.1%	32.2%
2015	31	91.6	3.82	3.61	21.1%	6.3%	8.1%	41.6%	34.1%	31.2%

Before his last few starts, I mentioned that Happ would likely experience some regression. Some of his batted ball statistics weren’t sustainable and we have started to see teams have more success against him. Overall, his season hasn’t been great. He owns a 3.57 SIERA with a strikeout rate of only 15.7%. He may be a favorite at home, but the Orioles have a lot of power in their lineup.

Batter Grind Down

Baltimore

The Orioles don’t have the highest team total on the board, but they draw a favorable matchup against J.A. Happ in a hitter-friendly ballpark. Over the last two seasons, Happ has allowed a .311 wOBA and 23 home runs to batters from the right side of the plate. He has been tough on lefties though, so this could be a good time to hop off the Chris Davis train.

Orioles Offense (2016)
Team wOBA vs. LHP — 0.297 (27 of 30)
Team ISO vs. LHP — 0.159 (16 of 30)
Team K% vs. LHP — 21.6% (16 of 30)
Runs Per Game — 4.74 (8 of 30)
Projected Run Total — 4.49 (12 of 30)

Projected Lineup

#	Player	Bats	wOBA vs. LHP	ISO vs. LHP	wOBA L14	FD Position	FD Salary	DK Position	DK Salary
1	Adam Jones	RIGHT	0.285	0.148	0.350	OF	$3,500	OF	$4,000
2	Joey Rickard	RIGHT	0.336	0.173	0.166	OF	$2,300	OF	$2,800
3	Manny Machado	RIGHT	0.342	0.178	0.370	SS	$3,700	3B/SS	$4,000
4	Mark Trumbo	RIGHT	0.361	0.281	0.504	OF	$4,000	OF	$5,000
5	Chris Davis	LEFT	0.331	0.190	0.277	1B	$3,500	1B	$3,500
6	Matt Wieters	SWITCH	0.293	0.147	0.280	C	$2,800	C	$3,000
7	Nolan Reimold	RIGHT	0.343	0.147	0.445	OF	$2,600	OF	$2,800
8	Jonathan Schoop	RIGHT	0.258	0.097	0.247	2B	$3,100	2B	$2,400
9	Paul Janish	RIGHT	0.205	0.069	0.295			SS	$2,000
	Team Averages	—	0.306	0.159	0.326	—	—	—	—

Elite Plays – Mark Trumbo

Secondary Plays – Adam Jones, Manny Machado, Matt Wieters

Stackability – GPP

Toronto

The Blue Jays have the highest run projection of any team outside of Coors Field. They draw an excellent matchup against Mike Wright and they get to face him at home. The sample size is relatively small (19 starts), but Wright has allowed a .404 wOBA to left-handed hitters and a .335 wOBA to right-handed hitters over the last two seasons.

Blue Jays Offense (2016)
Team wOBA vs. RHP — 0.313 (14 of 30)
Team ISO vs. RHP — 0.174 (10 of 30)
Team K% vs. RHP — 22.8% (20 of 30)
Runs Per Game — 4.18 (19 of 30)
Projected Run Total — 5.01 (3 of 30)

Projected Lineup

#	Player	Bats	wOBA vs. RHP	ISO vs. RHP	wOBA L14	FD Position	FD Salary	DK Position	DK Salary
1	Jose Bautista	RIGHT	0.385	0.285	0.303	OF	$4,500	OF	$4,300
2	Josh Donaldson	RIGHT	0.383	0.259	0.436	3B	$4,200	3B	$4,800
3	Edwin Encarnacion	RIGHT	0.371	0.261	0.338	1B	$3,700	1B	$4,200
4	Michael Saunders	LEFT	0.338	0.157	0.308	OF	$3,300	OF	$3,900
5	Justin Smoak	SWITCH	0.339	0.223	0.332	1B	$3,000	1B	$3,300
6	Russell Martin	RIGHT	0.300	0.176	0.326	C	$2,700	C	$3,200
7	Kevin Pillar	RIGHT	0.304	0.129	0.312	OF	$2,900	OF	$3,600
8	Devon Travis	RIGHT	0.343	0.160	0.217	2B	$2,800	2B	$3,500
9	Darwin Barney	RIGHT	0.364	0.160	0.373	SS	$2,300	2B/SS	$2,600
	Team Averages	—	0.347	0.201	0.327	—	—	—	—

Elite Plays – Jose Bautista (if he plays), Josh Donaldson, Edwin Encarnacion, Michael Saunders

Secondary Plays – Ezequiel Carrera (if he plays), Justin Smoak, Russell Martin

Stackability – Cash & GPP

Boston at Minnesota – 2:10 PM ET

Stats	wOBA	HR All.	K%	BB%	Stats	wOBA	HR All.	K%	BB%
Boston					Minnesota
			Eduardo Rodriguez					Kyle Gibson
			LEFT					RIGHT
			Vegas Moneyline					Vegas Over/Under
			MIN -125					9.5
SP vs. Left	0.333	7	19.7%	3.8%	SP vs. Left	0.317	9	16.1%	9.2%
SP vs. Right	0.303	10	17.2%	8.0%	SP vs. Right	0.302	11	17.8%	7.5%

Pitcher Grind Down

Statistics	Starts	PitchPS	SIERA	ERA	K%	BB%	SS%	GB%	FB%	HH%
Eduardo Rodriguez
					FanDuel			DraftKings
					Salary:		$7,200	Salary:		$7,100
					FPPG:		17.5	FPPG:		7.2
					Pitcher Rating:		51.4	Pitcher Rank:		20
L14 Days	2	94.0	6.57	5.40	6.4%	6.4%	5.3%	31.7%	56.1%	29.3%
2016	2	94.0	6.55	5.40	6.4%	6.4%	5.3%	31.7%	56.1%	29.3%
2015	21	95.7	4.16	3.85	18.8%	7.1%	7.8%	43.0%	33.4%	31.4%

Rodriguez has not fared well in his first two starts of the season and judging by the Vegas line, the oddsmakers aren’t expecting him to pitch well today. He is listed as a small underdog on the road in a game that features a high over/under of 9.5. Even though the Twins have struggled against southpaws this season, Rodriguez needs to flash some form before we consider him in DFS.

Statistics	Starts	PitchPS	SIERA	ERA	K%	BB%	SS%	GB%	FB%	HH%
Kyle Gibson
					FanDuel			DraftKings
					Salary:		$5,800	Salary:		$5,200
					FPPG:		13.3	FPPG:		4.4
					Pitcher Rating:		48.3	Pitcher Rank:		21
2016	4	95.3	5.45	6.10	10.9%	11.9%	9.5%	59.2%	26.3%	23.7%
2015	32	101.1	4.12	3.84	17.7%	7.9%	9.8%	53.4%	26.8%	27.7%

Gibson has also struggled to find good form this season, posting a 5.45 SIERA with a low strikeout rate of 10.9% in his first four starts. He draws arguably the worst matchup on the board (outside of the pitchers in Coors Field). The Red Sox lead the majors in runs scored per game and in team wOBA against right-handed pitching this season.

Batter Grind Down

Boston

The Red Sox draw a favorable matchup against Kyle Gibson, who has really struggled in his first four starts this season. The only downside in this matchup is that Gibson does induce a high ground ball rate. With the eighth highest team total on the board, we should consider this a good matchup to exploit.

Red Sox Offense (2016)
Team wOBA vs. RHP — 0.357 (1 of 30)
Team ISO vs. RHP — 0.192 (3 of 30)
Team K% vs. RHP — 18.4% (3 of 30)
Runs Per Game — 5.80 (1 of 30)
Projected Run Total — 4.60 (9 of 30)

Projected Lineup

#	Player	Bats	wOBA vs. RHP	ISO vs. RHP	wOBA L14	FD Position	FD Salary	DK Position	DK Salary
1	Mookie Betts	RIGHT	0.362	0.210	0.479	OF	$4,600	OF	$5,500
2	Dustin Pedroia	RIGHT	0.358	0.155	0.397	2B	$3,800	2B	$4,500
3	Xander Bogaerts	RIGHT	0.335	0.111	0.330	SS	$3,500	SS	$4,600
4	David Ortiz	LEFT	0.435	0.349	0.553	1B	$4,000	1B	$5,400
5	Hanley Ramirez	RIGHT	0.307	0.135	0.196	1B	$3,000	1B	$3,500
6	Jackie Bradley	LEFT	0.370	0.264	0.281	OF	$3,300	OF	$4,100
7	Travis Shaw	LEFT	0.346	0.193	0.223	3B	$2,700	1B/3B	$3,600
8	Chris Young	RIGHT	0.440	0.000	0.588	P	$5,500	P	$5,600
9	Christian Vazquez	RIGHT	0.234	0.091	0.236	C	$2,000	C	$2,800
	Team Averages	—	0.354	0.168	0.365	—	—	—	—

Elite Plays – Mookie Betts, David Ortiz

Secondary Plays – Dustin Pedroia, Xander Bogaerts, Travis Shaw

Stackability – GPP

Minnesota

The Twins are starting to show some signs of life offensively. In theory, they should be much better against left-handed pitching with all of the right-handed batters that they have in their lineup. Over the last two seasons, Eduardo Rodriguez has allowed a .333 wOBA to lefties and a .303 wOBA to righties.

Twins Offense (2016)
Team wOBA vs. LHP — 0.305 (20 of 30)
Team ISO vs. LHP — 0.164 (12 of 30)
Team K% vs. LHP — 24.2% (24 of 30)
Runs Per Game — 3.83 (26 of 30)
Projected Run Total — 4.90 (6 of 30)

Projected Lineup

#	Player	Bats	wOBA vs. LHP	ISO vs. LHP	wOBA L14	FD Position	FD Salary	DK Position	DK Salary
1	Eduardo Nunez	RIGHT	0.350	0.288	0.436	SS	$3,500	3B/SS	$4,100
2	Robbie Grossman	SWITCH	0.359	0.196	0.438	OF	$3,200	OF	$3,400
3	Joe Mauer	LEFT	0.309	0.126	0.405	1B	$3,500	1B	$3,700
4	Trevor Plouffe	RIGHT	0.338	0.182	0.304	3B	$2,700	3B	$3,400
5	Brian Dozier	RIGHT	0.344	0.216	0.382	2B	$3,600	2B	$4,000
6	Byung-Ho Park	RIGHT	0.356	0.289	0.333	1B	$3,100	1B	$3,600
7	Max Kepler	LEFT	0.141	0.053	0.191	OF	$2,000	OF	$3,000
8	Kurt Suzuki	RIGHT	0.266	0.065	0.280	C	$2,200	C	$2,500
9	Byron Buxton	RIGHT	0.156	0.076	0.341	OF	$2,600	OF	$2,300
	Team Averages	—	0.291	0.166	0.346	—	—	—	—

Elite Plays – Eduardo Nunez

Secondary Plays – Robbie Grossman, Trevor Plouffe, Brian Dozier, Byung-Ho Park

Stackability – GPP

Stats	wOBA	HR All.	K%	BB%	Stats	wOBA	HR All.	K%	BB%
Kansas City					Chicago White Sox
			Danny Duffy					Jose Quintana
			LEFT					LEFT
			Vegas Moneyline					Vegas Over/Under
			CWS -140					8.0
SP vs. Left	0.253	0	27.7%	5.2%	SP vs. Left	0.265	5	21.9%	3.8%
SP vs. Right	0.339	21	17.8%	8.6%	SP vs. Right	0.313	13	21.0%	5.7%

Pitcher Grind Down

Statistics	Starts	PitchPS	SIERA	ERA	K%	BB%	SS%	GB%	FB%	HH%
Danny Duffy
					FanDuel			DraftKings
					Salary:		$7,100	Salary:		$5,800
					FPPG:		11.4	FPPG:		6.5
					Pitcher Rating:			Pitcher Rank:
L14 Days	3	77.0	2.90	5.09	28.6%	0.0%	14.3%	30.4%	56.5%	37.5%
2016	5	77.0	2.92	3.35	28.3%	4.1%	16.6%	34.2%	46.8%	29.0%
2015	24	98.3	4.63	4.08	17.4%	9.0%	8.4%	38.8%	36.5%	29.5%

Chris Young was originally scheduled to pitch today, but it looks like Danny Duffy will draw the start instead. He has pitched well so far this season, posting a 2.92 SIERA with a strikeout rate of 28.3%. The biggest issue with Duffy has been his inability to pitch deep into games. He is coming off of a season-high 80 pitches in his last start, but the limited upside makes him more of an SP2 on multi-pitcher sites like DraftKings.

Statistics	Starts	PitchPS	SIERA	ERA	K%	BB%	SS%	GB%	FB%	HH%
Jose Quintana
					FanDuel			DraftKings
					Salary:		$9,000	Salary:		$10,200
					FPPG:		36.4	FPPG:		19.8
					Pitcher Rating:		80.5	Pitcher Rank:		4
L14 Days	2	109.0	4.53	4.63	21.2%	9.6%	7.3%	29.4%	44.1%	30.6%
2016	12	102.3	3.68	2.58	23.2%	5.6%	8.5%	39.4%	36.2%	32.4%
2015	32	105.4	3.62	3.36	20.5%	5.1%	9.2%	47.1%	29.7%	27.7%

Quintana hasn’t been great in his last two starts, but is otherwise having another great season. Overall, he owns a 3.68 SIERA with a strikeout rate of 23.2%. He draws a decent matchup against the Royals, who aren’t the automatic fade for pitchers like they were a season ago. Quintana is a large favorite at home, although his strikeout upside is somewhat limited in this matchup.

Batter Grind Down

Kansas City

The Royals’ offense has been sputtering all season. They average the fourth fewest runs of any team in baseball and they come into today’s game with the ninth lowest run projection. They draw a tough matchup against Jose Quintana, who has held both left and right-handed hitters under a .315 wOBA over the last two seasons.

Royals Offense (2016)
Team wOBA vs. LHP — 0.304 (22 of 30)
Team ISO vs. LHP — 0.121 (28 of 30)
Team K% vs. LHP — 18.0% (3 of 30)
Runs Per Game — 3.80 (27 of 30)
Projected Run Total — 3.87 (22 of 30)

Projected Lineup

#	Player	Bats	wOBA vs. LHP	ISO vs. LHP	wOBA L14	FD Position	FD Salary	DK Position	DK Salary
1	Alcides Escobar	RIGHT	0.269	0.058	0.179	SS	$2,500	SS	$2,500
2	Whit Merrifield	RIGHT	0.342	0.133	0.308	OF	$3,100	2B/OF	$3,500
3	Eric Hosmer	LEFT	0.314	0.132	0.467	1B	$3,400	1B	$3,500
4	Lorenzo Cain	RIGHT	0.418	0.241	0.317	OF	$3,200	OF	$4,100
5	Kendrys Morales	SWITCH	0.339	0.118	0.353	1B	$2,800	1B	$2,700
6	Salvador Perez	RIGHT	0.248	0.129	0.210	C	$2,400	C	$2,800
7	Paulo Orlando	RIGHT	0.316	0.136	0.224	OF	$2,400	OF	$2,500
8	Cheslor Cuthbert	RIGHT	0.213	0.049	0.312	3B	$2,000	3B	$2,400
9	Christian Colon	RIGHT	0.289	0.022		2B	$2,000	2B/3B	$2,400
	Team Averages	—	0.305	0.113	0.296	—	—	—	—

Elite Plays – NONE

Secondary Plays – Lorenzo Cain

Stackability – NONE

Chicago White Sox

The White Sox draw a mediocre matchup today against Danny Duffy, who has actually put together some very nice outings this season. Typically, we like when a team gets into their opponent’s bullpen early, but that’s not the case with the Royals. You can give the right-handed batters in this lineup a look, but don’t go overboard with the White Sox today.

White Sox Offense (2016)
Team wOBA vs. LHP — 0.321 (12 of 30)
Team ISO vs. LHP — 0.145 (19 of 30)
Team K% vs. LHP — 21.7% (18 of 30)
Runs Per Game — 4.03 (21 of 30)
Projected Run Total — 4.23 (12 of 16)

Projected Lineup

#	Player	Bats	wOBA vs. RHP	ISO vs. RHP	wOBA L14	FD Position	FD Salary	DK Position	DK Salary
1	Adam Eaton	LEFT	0.352	0.165	0.278	OF	$3,300	OF	$4,200
2	Jose Abreu	RIGHT	0.363	0.215	0.274	1B	$3,300	1B	$3,900
3	Melky Cabrera	SWITCH	0.322	0.123	0.272	OF	$3,200	OF	$3,500
4	Todd Frazier	RIGHT	0.334	0.225	0.332	3B	$3,500	3B	$4,400
5	J.B. Shuck	LEFT	0.282	0.069	0.211	OF	$2,000	OF	$3,000
6	Brett Lawrie	RIGHT	0.290	0.134	0.195	2B	$2,600	2B	$3,000
7	Dioner Navarro	SWITCH	0.265	0.100	0.200	C	$2,200	C	$2,700
8	Avisail Garcia	RIGHT	0.293	0.116	0.272	OF	$2,500	OF	$3,400
9			1.019	1.500	1.248	Position	Salary	0	$0
	Team Averages	—	0.391	0.294	0.365	—	—	—	—

Elite Plays – NONE

Secondary Plays – Jose Abreu, Todd Frazier, Brett Lawrie

Stackability – GPP

Chicago Cubs at Atlanta – 4:10 PM ET

Stats	wOBA	HR All.	K%	BB%	Stats	wOBA	HR All.	K%	BB%
Chicago Cubs					Atlanta
			Jake Arrieta					Matt Wisler
			RIGHT					RIGHT
			Vegas Moneyline					Vegas Over/Under
			CHC -300					7.0
SP vs. Left	0.218	4	29.4%	7.5%	SP vs. Left	0.367	15	12.2%	10.9%
SP vs. Right	0.232	9	25.6%	5.2%	SP vs. Right	0.284	10	20.3%	4.5%

Pitcher Grind Down

Statistics	Starts	PitchPS	SIERA	ERA	K%	BB%	SS%	GB%	FB%	HH%
Jake Arrieta
					FanDuel			DraftKings
					Salary:		$12,300	Salary:		$13,500
					FPPG:		46.8	FPPG:		26.7
					Pitcher Rating:		94.6	Pitcher Rank:		1
L14 Days	2	107.5	2.24	2.25	40.0%	10.0%	15.8%	64.0%	12.0%	24.0%
2016	12	102.1	3.14	1.80	28.0%	8.4%	11.4%	57.4%	22.6%	21.9%
2015	33	104.2	2.75	1.77	27.1%	5.5%	11.1%	56.2%	22.8%	22.1%

Arrieta grades out as the top pitching option available today, even though he is pitching on the road. He has been terrific this season, posting a 3.14 SIERA with a strikeout rate of 28% and a walk rate of 8.4%. He draws one of the top matchups available, as the Braves are ranked dead last in both team wOBA and team ISO against right-handed pitching this season. It’s hard to envision a bad outing for Arrieta here.

Statistics	Starts	PitchPS	SIERA	ERA	K%	BB%	SS%	GB%	FB%	HH%
Matt Wisler
					FanDuel			DraftKings
					Salary:		$6,100	Salary:		$6,100
					FPPG:		25.3	FPPG:		13.5
					Pitcher Rating:		39.9	Pitcher Rank:		24
L14 Days	3	92.0	4.58	7.41	18.7%	9.3%	7.6%	44.4%	33.3%	40.7%
2016	11	96.7	4.52	3.98	17.9%	6.8%	7.7%	37.2%	43.6%	38.6%
2015	19	93.3	4.98	4.71	15.1%	8.4%	8.1%	33.6%	43.2%	28.2%

Wisler has an electric fastball, but he hasn’t been able to turn that into much success at the major league level. In his first 11 starts this season, he has a 4.52 SIERA with a strikeout rate of 17.9%. While he may be pitching at home, this is not the matchup to target him in. On the season, the Cubs are ranked seventh in team wOBA against right-handed pitching.

Batter Grind Down

Chicago Cubs

It’s always hard to predict what is going to happen when good offenses have a favorable matchup, but are playing in a hitter-friendly ballpark. The Cubs disappointed a bit last night, but draw another favorable matchup today. Over the last two seasons, Matt Wisler has allowed a .367 wOBA and 15 home runs to left-handed hitters.

Cubs Offense (2016)
Team wOBA vs. RHP — 0.333 (7 of 30)
Team ISO vs. RHP — 0.167 (14 of 30)
Team K% vs. RHP — 21.8% (19 of 30)
Runs Per Game — 5.40 (3 of 30)
Projected Run Total — 4.65 (7 of 30)

Projected Lineup

#	Player	Bats	wOBA vs. RHP	ISO vs. RHP	wOBA L14	FD Position	FD Salary	DK Position	DK Salary
1	Dexter Fowler	SWITCH	0.341	0.178	0.329	OF	$3,900	OF	$4,100
2	Jason Heyward	LEFT	0.335	0.143	0.338	OF	$3,200	OF	$3,800
3	Kris Bryant	RIGHT	0.382	0.219	0.397	3B	$4,100	3B/OF	$4,700
4	Anthony Rizzo	LEFT	0.391	0.264	0.459	1B	$4,100	1B	$4,800
5	Ben Zobrist	SWITCH	0.352	0.172	0.338	2B	$3,400	2B	$4,200
6	Miguel Montero	LEFT	0.321	0.152	0.265	C	$2,400	C	$3,000
7	Addison Russell	RIGHT	0.320	0.143	0.188	SS	$2,700	SS	$2,800
8	Tommy La Stella	LEFT	0.359	0.187	0.251	2B	$2,000	2B/3B	$3,000
9	Jake Arrieta	RIGHT	0.186	0.122	0.416	P	$12,300	P	$13,500
	Team Averages	—	0.332	0.176	0.331	—	—	—	—

Elite Plays – Anthony Rizzo

Secondary Plays – Dexter Fowler, Jason Heyward, Ben Zobrist, Miguel Montero

Stackability – GPP

Atlanta

It’s never a good sign when a team is ranked dead last in four of the five statistics listed below. There is no reason that any Braves’ hitters should be on your radar today. Jake Arrieta boasts an elite strikeout rate and he dominates hitters from both sides of the plate.

Braves Offense (2016)
Team wOBA vs. RHP — 0.275 (30 of 30)
Team ISO vs. RHP — 0.092 (30 of 30)
Team K% vs. RHP — 19.9% (13 of 30)
Runs Per Game — 3.10 (30 of 30)
Projected Run Total — 2.35 (30 of 30)

Projected Lineup

#	Player	Bats	wOBA vs. RHP	ISO vs. RHP	wOBA L14	FD Position	FD Salary	DK Position	DK Salary
1	Ender Inciarte	LEFT	0.343	0.117	0.273	OF	$2,800	OF	$2,800
2	Chase d’Arnaud	RIGHT	0.351	0.067	0.313	2B	$2,800	2B/3B	$2,700
3	Freddie Freeman	LEFT	0.367	0.214	0.306	1B	$3,000	1B	$3,000
4	Nick Markakis	LEFT	0.340	0.096	0.296	OF	$2,500	OF	$2,800
5	Adonis Garcia	RIGHT	0.284	0.126	0.148	3B	$2,100	3B	$2,000
6	A.J. Pierzynski	LEFT	0.319	0.126	0.147	C	$2,000	C	$2,300
7	Daniel Castro	RIGHT	0.199	0.016	0.116	2B	$2,100	3B/SS	$2,000
8	Matt Wisler	RIGHT	0.140	0.000	0.000	P	$6,100	P	$6,100
9	Mallex Smith	LEFT	0.374	0.224	0.316	OF	$2,200	OF	$2,700
	Team Averages	—	0.302	0.110	0.213	—	—	—	—

MLB Grind Down: Saturday, June 11th

Philadelphia at Washington – 12:05 PM ET

Pitcher Grind Down

Batter Grind Down

Philadelphia

Projected Lineup

Elite Plays – NONE

Secondary Plays – Odubel Herrera

Stackability – NONE

Washington

Projected Lineup

Elite Plays – NONE

Secondary Plays – Bryce Harper, Daniel Murphy

Stackability – NONE

Baltimore at Toronto – 1:07 PM ET

Pitcher Grind Down

Batter Grind Down

Baltimore

Projected Lineup

Elite Plays – Mark Trumbo

Secondary Plays – Adam Jones, Manny Machado, Matt Wieters

Stackability – GPP

Toronto

Projected Lineup

Elite Plays – Jose Bautista (if he plays), Josh Donaldson, Edwin Encarnacion, Michael Saunders

Secondary Plays – Ezequiel Carrera (if he plays), Justin Smoak, Russell Martin

Stackability – Cash & GPP

Boston at Minnesota – 2:10 PM ET

Pitcher Grind Down

Batter Grind Down

Boston

Projected Lineup

Elite Plays – Mookie Betts, David Ortiz

Secondary Plays – Dustin Pedroia, Xander Bogaerts, Travis Shaw

Stackability – GPP

Minnesota

Projected Lineup

Elite Plays – Eduardo Nunez

Secondary Plays – Robbie Grossman, Trevor Plouffe, Brian Dozier, Byung-Ho Park

Stackability – GPP

Pitcher Grind Down

Batter Grind Down

Kansas City

Projected Lineup

Elite Plays – NONE

Secondary Plays – Lorenzo Cain

Stackability – NONE

Chicago White Sox

Projected Lineup

Elite Plays – NONE

Secondary Plays – Jose Abreu, Todd Frazier, Brett Lawrie

Stackability – GPP

Chicago Cubs at Atlanta – 4:10 PM ET

Pitcher Grind Down

Batter Grind Down

Chicago Cubs

Projected Lineup

Elite Plays – Anthony Rizzo

Secondary Plays – Dexter Fowler, Jason Heyward, Ben Zobrist, Miguel Montero

Stackability – GPP

Atlanta

Projected Lineup

Elite Plays – NONE

Secondary Plays – NONE

Stackability – NONE

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