MLB Grind Down: Saturday, September 24th - Page Two
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Washington at Pittsburgh – 7:05 PM ET
Washington | Pittsburgh | ||||||||
Joe Ross | Ivan Nova | ||||||||
RIGHT | RIGHT | ||||||||
Vegas Moneyline | Vegas Over/Under | ||||||||
PIT -140 | 8.0 | ||||||||
Stats | wOBA | HR All. | HC% | K% | Stats | wOBA | HR All. | HC% | K% |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
SP vs. Left (2016) | 0.358 | 3 | 34.3% | 16.8% | SP vs. Left (2016) | 0.361 | 10 | 37.7% | 13.8% |
SP vs. Right (2016) | 0.255 | 5 | 26.0% | 23.5% | SP vs. Right (2016) | 0.308 | 13 | 32.6% | 22.6% |
Pitcher Grind Down
Joe Ross | ||||||||||
FanDuel | DraftKings | |||||||||
Salary: | $8,000 | Salary: | $7,700 | |||||||
FPPG: | 25.9 | FPPG: | 13.1 | |||||||
Pitcher Rating: | 66.6 | Pitcher Rank: | 11 | |||||||
Statistics | Starts | PitchPS | SIERA | ERA | K% | BB% | SS% | GB% | FB% | HC% |
---|
2016 | 17 | 91.5 | 4.08 | 3.48 | 20.2% | 6.3% | 11.0% | 43.6% | 29.9% | 30.0% |
2015 | 13 | 88.7 | 3.66 | 3.64 | 22.0% | 6.7% | 11.9% | 49.8% | 33.8% | 30.2% |
Home (2015-16):—ERA: 3.36 — K%: 19.6% — wOBA Allowed: 0.279
Away (2015-16):—ERA: 3.74 — K%: 22.4% — wOBA Allowed: 0.306
Ross does sport some decent numbers this season, as he has put up a 4.07 SIERA on the season to go along with a 20.2 percent strikeout rate. He made his first start last week since early July and pitched just three innings. The 51 pitch count is the concern here, as he might be on a short leash, with around five innings looking like a reasonable projection. This limits his upside enough to make him a tough play.
Ivan Nova | ||||||||||
FanDuel | DraftKings | |||||||||
Salary: | $7,200 | Salary: | $8,600 | |||||||
FPPG: | 25.0 | FPPG: | 12.5 | |||||||
Pitcher Rating: | 73.2 | Pitcher Rank: | 6 | |||||||
Statistics | Starts | PitchPS | SIERA | ERA | K% | BB% | SS% | GB% | FB% | HC% |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
L30 Days | 5 | 85.8 | 2.94 | 1.50 | 23.1% | 2.2% | 11.0% | 59.6% | 24.5% | 25.3% |
2016 | 24 | 91.0 | 3.79 | 4.19 | 18.7% | 4.4% | 9.4% | 53.2% | 28.2% | 35.0% |
2015 | 17 | 89.9 | 4.58 | 5.07 | 15.3% | 8.0% | 7.8% | 49.0% | 31.7% | 32.3% |
Home (2015-16):—ERA: 4.07 — K%: 16.2% — wOBA Allowed: 0.318
Away (2015-16):—ERA: 5.03 — K%: 18.6% — wOBA Allowed: 0.357
Nova has been great over the last month, as he has put up a 2.94 SIERA (1.50 ERA) during those five starts. His strikeout rate has improved vastly as well, as he has put up a 23.1 percent strikeout rate during that span, as well. He gets an average matchup against the Nationals, which is improved with Murphy continuing to be out of the lineup. He makes a decent SP2 and is not the worst FD option at his lowered price.
Batter Grind Down
Washington
The main worry for Nova today should be Harper, as Nova has allowed a .361 wOBA to left handed bats on the year. The rest of the Nationals are avoidable today, as they have the sixth-lowest projected run total (3.77) on the day.
- Nationals Offense (2016)
Team wOBA vs. RHP — 0.318 (13 of 30)
Team wOBA L30 Days — 0.304 (24 of 30)
Team ISO vs. RHP — 0.163 (16 of 30)
Team K% vs. RHP — 19.8% (7 of 30)
Pitches Per PA vs. RHP — 3.89 (12 of 30)
Runs Per Game — 4.69 (9 of 30)
Projected Run Total — 3.77 (25 of 30)
Projected Lineup
# | Player | Bats | wOBA vs. RHP | ISO vs. RHP | HC% vs. RHP | wOBA L14 | FD Position | FD Salary | DK Position | DK Salary |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
1 | Trea Turner | RIGHT | 0.413 | 0.276 | 33.7% | 0.446 | OF | $4,300 | 2B/OF | $5,300 |
2 | Jayson Werth | RIGHT | 0.297 | 0.140 | 32.9% | 0.211 | OF | $3,600 | OF | $3,000 |
3 | Bryce Harper | LEFT | 0.348 | 0.188 | 34.6% | 0.216 | OF | $3,400 | OF | $4,500 |
4 | Anthony Rendon | RIGHT | 0.340 | 0.183 | 37.7% | 0.258 | 3B | $3,300 | 3B | $3,300 |
5 | Wilson Ramos | RIGHT | 0.350 | 0.162 | 34.8% | 0.311 | C | $3,300 | C | $3,400 |
6 | Stephen Drew | LEFT | 0.366 | 0.277 | 38.4% | 0.341 | SS | $2,200 | 2B/SS | $2,900 |
7 | Ryan Zimmerman | RIGHT | 0.273 | 0.143 | 33.9% | 0.230 | 1B | $2,700 | 1B | $2,800 |
8 | Danny Espinosa | SWITCH | 0.294 | 0.134 | 30.1% | 0.187 | SS | $2,900 | SS | $2,400 |
9 | Joe Ross | RIGHT | 0.198 | 0.042 | 25.0% | 0.878 | P | $8,000 | P | $7,700 |
Team Averages | — | 0.320 | 0.172 | 33.5% | 0.342 | — | — | — | — |
Elite Plays – Bryce Harper
Secondary Plays – Trea Turner
Stackability – RED
Pittsburgh
If you are going to attack Ross, do it from the left side of the plate. Ross has kept righties at bay, allowing a .255 wOBA, while he has allowed a .358 wOBA to lefties on the year. This puts Adam Frazier and Gregory Polanco in play as one-off bats.
- Pirates Offense (2016)
Team wOBA vs. RHP — 0.316 (15 of 30)
Team wOBA L30 Days — 0.337 (5 of 30)
Team ISO vs. RHP — 0.144 (25 of 30)
Team K% vs. RHP — 20.5% (14 of 30)
Pitches Per PA vs. RHP — 3.96 (4 of 30)
Runs Per Game — 4.58 (12 of 30)
Projected Run Total — 4.23 (17 of 30)
Projected Lineup
# | Player | Bats | wOBA vs. RHP | ISO vs. RHP | HC% vs. RHP | wOBA L14 | FD Position | FD Salary | DK Position | DK Salary |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
1 | Adam Frazier | LEFT | 0.357 | 0.158 | 33.3% | 0.350 | SS | $2,000 | 2B/OF | $3,100 |
2 | Starling Marte | RIGHT | 0.357 | 0.156 | 35.1% | 0.000 | OF | $2,900 | OF | $5,200 |
3 | Andrew McCutchen | RIGHT | 0.334 | 0.179 | 36.8% | 0.419 | OF | $3,400 | OF | $4,700 |
4 | Gregory Polanco | LEFT | 0.336 | 0.209 | 36.9% | 0.277 | OF | $3,200 | OF | $4,700 |
5 | Jung-Ho Kang | RIGHT | 0.376 | 0.274 | 40.3% | 0.404 | 3B | $3,600 | 3B | $4,800 |
6 | Sean Rodriguez | RIGHT | 0.352 | 0.267 | 42.2% | 0.517 | OF | $3,300 | 2B/SS | $3,900 |
7 | David Freese | RIGHT | 0.312 | 0.118 | 33.0% | 0.278 | 3B | $2,600 | 1B/3B | $2,800 |
8 | Francisco Cervelli | RIGHT | 0.294 | 0.050 | 23.8% | 0.329 | C | $2,800 | C | $3,000 |
9 | Ivan Nova | RIGHT | 0.125 | 0.000 | 0.0% | 0.146 | P | $7,200 | P | $8,600 |
Team Averages | — | 0.316 | 0.157 | 31.3% | 0.302 | — | — | — | — |
Elite Plays – Gregory Polanco
Secondary Plays – Adam Frazier
Stackability – RED
Kansas City at Detroit – 7:08 PM ET
Kansas City | Detroit | ||||||||
Yordano Ventura | Daniel Norris | ||||||||
RIGHT | LEFT | ||||||||
Vegas Moneyline | Vegas Over/Under | ||||||||
DET -130 | 9.0 | ||||||||
Stats | wOBA | HR All. | HC% | K% | Stats | wOBA | HR All. | HC% | K% |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
SP vs. Left (2016) | 0.324 | 14 | 31.9% | 16.5% | SP vs. Left (2016) | 0.339 | 2 | 29.7% | 31.3% |
SP vs. Right (2016) | 0.323 | 9 | 29.4% | 17.4% | SP vs. Right (2016) | 0.334 | 6 | 31.9% | 19.9% |
Pitcher Grind Down
Yordano Ventura | ||||||||||
FanDuel | DraftKings | |||||||||
Salary: | $8,500 | Salary: | $6,500 | |||||||
FPPG: | 26.5 | FPPG: | 12.8 | |||||||
Pitcher Rating: | 42.9 | Pitcher Rank: | 26 | |||||||
Statistics | Starts | PitchPS | SIERA | ERA | K% | BB% | SS% | GB% | FB% | HC% |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
L30 Days | 5 | 99.6 | 5.33 | 4.23 | 13.1% | 11.5% | 8.2% | 53.6% | 24.7% | 20.6% |
2016 | 30 | 95.4 | 4.79 | 4.35 | 17.0% | 9.5% | 8.8% | 50.0% | 31.3% | 30.6% |
2015 | 28 | 94.7 | 3.69 | 4.08 | 22.5% | 8.4% | 10.4% | 52.2% | 27.2% | 29.8% |
Home (2015-16):—ERA: 4.08 — K%: 21.1% — wOBA Allowed: 0.306
Away (2015-16):—ERA: 4.34 — K%: 18.3% — wOBA Allowed: 0.324
Ventura is an average major league starter as evidenced by his 4.79 SIERA (4.35 ERA). His strikeout rate has dropped significantly this year to just 17 percent. With that said, he has pitched amazingly against the Tigers this year (30.2 innings, 6 earned runs, 25 strikeouts). If you want to take a tournament chance on him, you can at DK, as he is cheap and coming off his best performance of the year, but there is still a good amount of risk against a tough Tigers offense.
Daniel Norris | ||||||||||
FanDuel | DraftKings | |||||||||
Salary: | $7,000 | Salary: | $7,900 | |||||||
FPPG: | 25.8 | FPPG: | 13.3 | |||||||
Pitcher Rating: | 64.9 | Pitcher Rank: | 14 | |||||||
Statistics | Starts | PitchPS | SIERA | ERA | K% | BB% | SS% | GB% | FB% | HC% |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
L30 Days | 5 | 97.0 | 3.61 | 4.08 | 25.6% | 6.6% | 11.8% | 42.7% | 37.8% | 31.7% |
2016 | 11 | 88.7 | 4.00 | 3.63 | 22.8% | 7.2% | 9.6% | 38.9% | 37.7% | 31.4% |
2015 | 13 | 79.6 | 4.45 | 3.75 | 17.9% | 7.6% | 9.2% | 39.3% | 43.2% | 28.7% |
Home (2015-16):—ERA: 4.72 — K%: 20.9% — wOBA Allowed: 0.358
Away (2015-16):—ERA: 2.99 — K%: 19.9% — wOBA Allowed: 0.299
Norris has been solid in his last few starts and is high-upside target if he can keep it up. Over the last three starts, he has 24 strikeouts and now sports a 3.61 SIERA over his last five starts to go along with a solid 25.6 percent strikeout rate. He is in play for his price at both starts and has enough upside to be played in all formats.
Batter Grind Down
Kansas City
The Royals are always a tough offense to target in any format, as they do not have a ton of power in their lineup. Today, they have the 13th-highest projected run total at 4.32.
- Royals Offense (2016)
Team wOBA vs. LHP — 0.326 (9 of 30)
Team wOBA L30 Days — 0.306 (22 of 30)
Team ISO vs. LHP — 0.163 (14 of 30)
Team K% vs. LHP — 20.1% (8 of 30)
Pitches Per PA vs. LHP — 3.79 (28 of 30)
Runs Per Game — 4.14 (25 of 30)
Projected Run Total — 4.32 (13 of 30)
Projected Lineup
# | Player | Bats | wOBA vs. LHP | ISO vs. LHP | HC% vs. LHP | wOBA L14 | FD Position | FD Salary | DK Position | DK Salary |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
1 | Billy Burns | SWITCH | 0.299 | 0.095 | 11.9% | 0.373 | OF | $2,200 | OF | $2,600 |
2 | Whit Merrifield | RIGHT | 0.379 | 0.125 | 48.2% | 0.325 | 2B | $2,900 | 2B/OF | $3,600 |
3 | Eric Hosmer | LEFT | 0.291 | 0.157 | 30.5% | 0.269 | 1B | $3,300 | 1B | $3,000 |
4 | Kendrys Morales | SWITCH | 0.368 | 0.215 | 37.0% | 0.375 | 1B | $3,100 | 1B/OF | $3,800 |
5 | Paulo Orlando | RIGHT | 0.352 | 0.189 | 24.8% | 0.264 | OF | $3,000 | OF | $2,900 |
6 | Alex Gordon | LEFT | 0.303 | 0.152 | 38.2% | 0.255 | OF | $2,700 | OF | $2,500 |
7 | Alcides Escobar | RIGHT | 0.261 | 0.102 | 26.8% | 0.329 | SS | $2,600 | SS | $2,700 |
8 | Christian Colon | RIGHT | 0.289 | 0.106 | 28.6% | 0.313 | 2B | $2,400 | 2B/3B | $2,300 |
9 | Drew Butera | RIGHT | 0.208 | 0.080 | 17.7% | 0.176 | C | $2,300 | C | $2,500 |
Team Averages | — | 0.306 | 0.136 | 29.3% | 0.298 | — | — | — | — |
Elite Plays – Eric Hosmer
Secondary Plays – Whit Merrifield
Stackability – RED
Detroit
Ventura has allowed a .324 and .323 wOBA to lefties and righties respectively. The Tigers do have the fifth-highest team total of the entire day at 4.68 runs, putting them in play in all formats.
- Tigers Offense (2016)
Team wOBA vs. RHP — 0.328 (7 of 30)
Team wOBA L30 Days — 0.334 (7 of 30)
Team ISO vs. RHP — 0.170 (11 of 30)
Team K% vs. RHP — 21.1% (18 of 30)
Pitches Per PA vs. RHP — 3.87 (14 of 30)
Runs Per Game — 4.57 (13 of 30)
Projected Run Total — 4.68 (5 of 30)
Projected Lineup
# | Player | Bats | wOBA vs. RHP | ISO vs. RHP | HC% vs. RHP | wOBA L14 | FD Position | FD Salary | DK Position | DK Salary |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
1 | Ian Kinsler | RIGHT | 0.335 | 0.183 | 34.3% | 0.287 | 2B | $3,800 | 2B | $4,200 |
2 | Cameron Maybin | RIGHT | 0.354 | 0.098 | 22.6% | 0.367 | OF | $3,400 | OF | $4,000 |
3 | Miguel Cabrera | RIGHT | 0.391 | 0.247 | 40.4% | 0.368 | 1B | $3,900 | 1B | $5,300 |
4 | Victor Martinez | SWITCH | 0.348 | 0.192 | 40.9% | 0.288 | C | $3,400 | 1B | $3,400 |
5 | J.D. Martinez | RIGHT | 0.403 | 0.246 | 39.2% | 0.352 | OF | $3,400 | OF | $3,800 |
6 | Justin Upton | RIGHT | 0.311 | 0.198 | 38.0% | 0.314 | OF | $3,200 | OF | $3,800 |
7 | Erick Aybar | SWITCH | 0.281 | 0.087 | 22.9% | 0.318 | SS | $2,600 | SS | $3,100 |
8 | James McCann | RIGHT | 0.224 | 0.069 | 26.6% | 0.250 | C | $2,900 | C | $3,200 |
9 | Andrew Romine | LEFT | 0.293 | 0.094 | 23.3% | 0.331 | SS | $2,100 | OF/SS | $2,900 |
Team Averages | — | 0.327 | 0.157 | 32.0% | 0.319 | — | — | — | — |
Elite Plays – Miguel Cabrera, Victor Martinez
Secondary Plays – Ian Kinsler, Cameron Maybin, Justin Upton
Stackability – YELLOW
Atlanta at Miami – 7:10 PM ET
Atlanta | Miami | ||||||||
Aaron Blair | Wei-Yin Chen | ||||||||
RIGHT | LEFT | ||||||||
Vegas Moneyline | Vegas Over/Under | ||||||||
MIA -143 | 8.5 | ||||||||
Stats | wOBA | HR All. | HC% | K% | Stats | wOBA | HR All. | HC% | K% |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
SP vs. Left (2016) | 0.419 | 6 | 32.4% | 10.2% | SP vs. Left (2016) | 0.320 | 1 | 33.9% | 18.4% |
SP vs. Right (2016) | 0.350 | 6 | 27.3% | 15.7% | SP vs. Right (2016) | 0.339 | 20 | 35.5% | 19.2% |
Pitcher Grind Down
Aaron Blair | ||||||||||
FanDuel | DraftKings | |||||||||
Salary: | $4,300 | Salary: | $4,900 | |||||||
FPPG: | 11.2 | FPPG: | 3.4 | |||||||
Pitcher Rating: | 35.3 | Pitcher Rank: | 28 | |||||||
Statistics | Starts | PitchPS | SIERA | ERA | K% | BB% | SS% | GB% | FB% | HC% |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
L30 Days | 1 | 67.0 | 4.36 | 11.25 | 15.0% | 0.0% | 9.0% | 31.3% | 37.5% | 43.8% |
2016 | 13 | 80.7 | 5.69 | 7.71 | 12.8% | 10.7% | 9.2% | 39.4% | 38.0% | 30.0% |
Home (2015-16):—ERA: 8.18 — K%: 10.8% — wOBA Allowed: 0.383
Away (2015-16):—ERA: 7.16 — K%: 15.3% — wOBA Allowed: 0.389
Looking at Blair’s chart above shows a lot of red, which is always a bit concerning. The most concerning is that 7.71 ERA (5.69 SIERA) over his 13 starts this season. His strikeout rate doesn’t allow for any mistakes at an extremely low rate of 12.8 percent. He is an easy avoid in all formats today.
Wei-Yin Chen | ||||||||||
FanDuel | DraftKings | |||||||||
Salary: | $8,000 | Salary: | $5,500 | |||||||
FPPG: | 24.4 | FPPG: | 12.2 | |||||||
Pitcher Rating: | 67.3 | Pitcher Rank: | 10 | |||||||
Statistics | Starts | PitchPS | SIERA | ERA | K% | BB% | SS% | GB% | FB% | HC% |
---|
2016 | 20 | 88.8 | 4.19 | 5.04 | 19.1% | 4.8% | 9.2% | 39.9% | 38.8% | 35.3% |
2015 | 31 | 97.1 | 3.97 | 3.34 | 19.3% | 5.2% | 8.6% | 40.5% | 39.4% | 28.3% |
Home (2015-16):—ERA: 4.15 — K%: 19.2% — wOBA Allowed: 0.330
Away (2015-16):—ERA: 3.75 — K%: 19.2% — wOBA Allowed: 0.327
Chen has not been great this year, as he is just an average pitcher. He comes in with a 4.19 SIERA (5.04 ERA) after 20 starts and a below average 19.1 percent strikeout rate. The Braves matchup is not what is used to be, as they have the third-highest wOBA over the last thirty days. There are better cheap options than Chen tonight.
Batter Grind Down
Atlanta
Chen has allowed righties a .339 wOBA on the year, which is tough for the Braves, as they are lefty-heavy in the top five bats. While I do not love their bats, they do have potential tonight for value.
- Braves Offense (2016)
Team wOBA vs. LHP — 0.292 (28 of 30)
Team wOBA L30 Days — 0.344 (3 of 30)
Team ISO vs. LHP — 0.105 (30 of 30)
Team K% vs. LHP — 20.9% (12 of 30)
Pitches Per PA vs. LHP — 3.79 (26 of 30)
Runs Per Game — 3.97 (28 of 30)
Projected Run Total — 4.00 (23 of 30)
Projected Lineup
# | Player | Bats | wOBA vs. LHP | ISO vs. LHP | HC% vs. LHP | wOBA L14 | FD Position | FD Salary | DK Position | DK Salary |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
1 | Ender Inciarte | LEFT | 0.328 | 0.063 | 15.7% | 0.327 | OF | $3,500 | OF | $4,300 |
2 | Adonis Garcia | RIGHT | 0.342 | 0.109 | 29.6% | 0.310 | 3B | $2,900 | 3B | $3,600 |
3 | Freddie Freeman | LEFT | 0.373 | 0.202 | 44.1% | 0.469 | 1B | $4,200 | 1B | $5,000 |
4 | Matt Kemp | RIGHT | 0.381 | 0.279 | 31.3% | 0.443 | OF | $3,800 | OF | $4,700 |
5 | Nick Markakis | LEFT | 0.279 | 0.070 | 33.3% | 0.415 | OF | $2,800 | OF | $3,800 |
6 | Anthony Recker | RIGHT | 0.377 | 0.143 | 64.3% | 0.381 | C | $2,500 | C | $2,800 |
7 | Dansby Swanson | RIGHT | 0.358 | 0.333 | 33.3% | 0.364 | SS | $3,100 | SS | $3,000 |
8 | Gordon Beckham | RIGHT | 0.311 | 0.153 | 29.8% | 0.148 | 2B | $2,400 | 2B/3B | $3,200 |
9 | Aaron Blair | RIGHT | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.0% | 0.000 | P | $4,300 | P | $4,900 |
Team Averages | — | 0.305 | 0.150 | 31.3% | 0.317 | — | — | — | — |
Elite Plays – Adonis Garcia
Secondary Plays – Freddie Freeman, Matt Kemp
Stackability – RED
Miami
Blair can be attacked from both sides of the plate, as he has allowed a .419 wOBA to lefties and .351 wOBA to righties on the year. This puts the Marlins offense in play in all formats against a bad pitcher as they have the 10th-highest projected run total at 4.50.
- Marlins Offense (2016)
Team wOBA vs. RHP — 0.310 (22 of 30)
Team wOBA L30 Days — 0.275 (29 of 30)
Team ISO vs. RHP — 0.131 (29 of 30)
Team K% vs. RHP — 19.1% (5 of 30)
Pitches Per PA vs. RHP — 3.80 (26 of 30)
Runs Per Game — 4.07 (27 of 30)
Projected Run Total — 4.50 (10 of 30)
Projected Lineup
# | Player | Bats | wOBA vs. RHP | ISO vs. RHP | HC% vs. RHP | wOBA L14 | FD Position | FD Salary | DK Position | DK Salary |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
1 | Dee Gordon | LEFT | 0.269 | 0.062 | 18.7% | 0.255 | 2B | $2,700 | 2B | $4,400 |
2 | Marcell Ozuna | RIGHT | 0.318 | 0.163 | 33.6% | 0.287 | OF | $3,300 | OF | $4,000 |
3 | Martin Prado | RIGHT | 0.304 | 0.098 | 25.8% | 0.305 | 3B | $3,100 | 3B | $3,800 |
4 | Christian Yelich | LEFT | 0.389 | 0.221 | 42.8% | 0.332 | OF | $3,400 | OF | $5,100 |
5 | Giancarlo Stanton | RIGHT | 0.342 | 0.250 | 39.2% | 0.485 | OF | $3,800 | OF | $4,800 |
6 | Justin Bour | LEFT | 0.350 | 0.239 | 37.8% | 0.175 | 1B | $2,700 | 1B | $3,300 |
7 | J.T. Realmuto | RIGHT | 0.351 | 0.119 | 30.6% | 0.294 | C | $2,800 | C | $4,300 |
8 | Adeiny Hechavarria | RIGHT | 0.257 | 0.068 | 30.7% | 0.154 | SS | $2,000 | SS | $2,300 |
9 | Wei-Yin Chen | LEFT | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.0% | 0.000 | P | $8,000 | P | $5,500 |
Team Averages | — | 0.287 | 0.136 | 28.8% | 0.254 | — | — | — | — |
Elite Plays – Christian Yelich, Giancarlo Stanton
Secondary Plays – Martin Prado, Dee Gordon, Marcell Ozuna
Stackability – YELLOW
Cincinnati at Milwaukee – 7:10 PM ET
Cincinnati | Milwaukee | ||||||||
Dan Straily | Taylor Jungmann | ||||||||
RIGHT | RIGHT | ||||||||
Vegas Moneyline | Vegas Over/Under | ||||||||
MIL -105 | 9.0 | ||||||||
Stats | wOBA | HR All. | HC% | K% | Stats | wOBA | HR All. | HC% | K% |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
SP vs. Left (2016) | 0.296 | 10 | 29.1% | 18.4% | SP vs. Left (2016) | 0.383 | 0 | 24.3% | 8.2% |
SP vs. Right (2016) | 0.314 | 18 | 35.9% | 22.0% | SP vs. Right (2016) | 0.439 | 3 | 55.0% | 18.6% |
Pitcher Grind Down
Dan Straily | ||||||||||
FanDuel | DraftKings | |||||||||
Salary: | $7,400 | Salary: | $9,200 | |||||||
FPPG: | 28.6 | FPPG: | 14.7 | |||||||
Pitcher Rating: | 53.3 | Pitcher Rank: | 18 | |||||||
Statistics | Starts | PitchPS | SIERA | ERA | K% | BB% | SS% | GB% | FB% | HC% |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
L30 Days | 5 | 88.0 | 4.87 | 4.28 | 22.5% | 11.7% | 11.4% | 26.3% | 53.9% | 32.9% |
2016 | 29 | 99.2 | 4.71 | 3.83 | 20.3% | 9.3% | 10.3% | 31.3% | 48.1% | 32.8% |
2015 | 3 | 97.0 | 4.67 | 5.40 | 18.4% | 10.5% | 9.6% | 41.5% | 37.7% | 28.3% |
Home (2015-16):—ERA: 2.86 — K%: 19.8% — wOBA Allowed: 0.283
Away (2015-16):—ERA: 5.13 — K%: 20.4% — wOBA Allowed: 0.332
Straily has not been terrible, but has not been great over this last five starts. His SIERA (4.87) sits a bit higher than his 4.28 ERA, but on a plus side he does have a 22.5 percent strikeout rate during that span. He gets a solid matchup against a strikeout-happy (25.6 percent K rate) Brewers squad that he just dominated a couple starts ago. He is a deep tournament play at FD, but a little pricey at DK.
Taylor Jungmann | ||||||||||
FanDuel | DraftKings | |||||||||
Salary: | $5,800 | Salary: | $6,600 | |||||||
FPPG: | 7.1 | FPPG: | 1.9 | |||||||
Pitcher Rating: | 66.0 | Pitcher Rank: | 12 | |||||||
Statistics | Starts | PitchPS | SIERA | ERA | K% | BB% | SS% | GB% | FB% | HC% |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
L30 Days | 0 | 0.0 | 2.61 | 0.00 | 33.3% | 0.0% | 10.0% | 0.0% | 50.0% | 0.0% |
2016 | 5 | 88.4 | 5.61 | 8.34 | 13.9% | 12.0% | 6.1% | 45.3% | 34.7% | 40.3% |
2015 | 21 | 97.4 | 4.11 | 3.77 | 21.4% | 9.4% | 8.4% | 46.3% | 33.1% | 28.3% |
Home (2015-16):—ERA: 2.43 — K%: 21.1% — wOBA Allowed: 0.284
Away (2015-16):—ERA: 6.15 — K%: 19.3% — wOBA Allowed: 0.361
Jungmann has made two relief appearances over the last week after spending the majority of the season in the minors after being terrible to start the season (8.34 ERA). There is no reason to take a chance on him today in any format, as he could be on a pitch count, and he has shown nothing to gain our trust this season.
Batter Grind Down
Cincinnati
If I am going to attack an offense today in this game, I will have more exposure to this Reds team. They have the 12th-highest projected run total at 4.47 and get a great matchup against Jungmann, who allowed a .383+ wOBA from both sides of the plate in his five starts and seven appearances this year. They are in play in all formats tonight.
- Reds Offense (2016)
Team wOBA vs. RHP — 0.313 (18 of 30)
Team wOBA L30 Days — 0.312 (17 of 30)
Team ISO vs. RHP — 0.154 (21 of 30)
Team K% vs. RHP — 20.7% (16 of 30)
Pitches Per PA vs. RHP — 3.78 (27 of 30)
Runs Per Game — 4.36 (17 of 30)
Projected Run Total — 4.47 (12 of 30)
Projected Lineup
# | Player | Bats | wOBA vs. RHP | ISO vs. RHP | HC% vs. RHP | wOBA L14 | FD Position | FD Salary | DK Position | DK Salary |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
1 | Jose Peraza | RIGHT | 0.324 | 0.064 | 20.7% | 0.258 | SS | $3,200 | OF/SS | $3,600 |
2 | Scott Schebler | LEFT | 0.323 | 0.164 | 35.1% | 0.337 | OF | $2,900 | OF | $3,500 |
3 | Joey Votto | LEFT | 0.422 | 0.244 | 42.5% | 0.431 | 1B | $4,100 | 1B | $5,300 |
4 | Adam Duvall | RIGHT | 0.335 | 0.268 | 39.2% | 0.254 | OF | $2,400 | OF | $3,900 |
5 | Brandon Phillips | RIGHT | 0.328 | 0.132 | 28.7% | 0.385 | 2B | $3,100 | 2B | $3,900 |
6 | Eugenio Suarez | RIGHT | 0.295 | 0.143 | 34.9% | 0.255 | 3B | $2,800 | 3B | $3,400 |
7 | Steve Selsky | RIGHT | 0.184 | 0.048 | 18.2% | 0.317 | OF | $2,500 | OF | $2,800 |
8 | Tucker Barnhart | SWITCH | 0.317 | 0.140 | 31.7% | 0.223 | C | $2,200 | C | $2,800 |
9 | Dan Straily | RIGHT | 0.044 | 0.000 | 11.8% | 0.176 | P | $7,400 | P | $9,200 |
Team Averages | — | 0.286 | 0.134 | 29.2% | 0.293 | — | — | — | — |
Elite Plays – Joey Votto, Adam Duvall, Jose Peraza
Secondary Plays – Scott Schebler, Brandon Phillips, Eugenio Suarez
Stackability – GREEN
Milwaukee
Straily has allowed a .315 wOBA to righties while keeping lefties to a .296 wOBA. The Brewers do sport a very high 4.53 run total, which is eighth-highest of the day. The offense is in play today, but I do like Straily a bit more than Vegas.
- Brewers Offense (2016)
Team wOBA vs. RHP — 0.310 (22 of 30)
Team wOBA L30 Days — 0.316 (14 of 30)
Team ISO vs. RHP — 0.160 (18 of 30)
Team K% vs. RHP — 25.6% (30 of 30)
Pitches Per PA vs. RHP — 3.99 (2 of 30)
Runs Per Game — 4.16 (24 of 30)
Projected Run Total — 4.53 (8 of 30)
Projected Lineup
# | Player | Bats | wOBA vs. RHP | ISO vs. RHP | HC% vs. RHP | wOBA L14 | FD Position | FD Salary | DK Position | DK Salary |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
1 | Jonathan Villar | SWITCH | 0.337 | 0.146 | 34.4% | 0.213 | 3B | $3,900 | 3B/SS | $3,900 |
2 | Scooter Gennett | LEFT | 0.321 | 0.156 | 30.3% | 0.468 | 2B | $3,500 | 2B | $4,100 |
3 | Ryan Braun | RIGHT | 0.374 | 0.238 | 33.8% | 0.398 | OF | $4,100 | OF | $4,500 |
4 | Chris Carter | RIGHT | 0.327 | 0.244 | 40.7% | 0.269 | 1B | $3,800 | 1B | $3,700 |
5 | Domingo Santana | RIGHT | 0.316 | 0.165 | 37.5% | 0.429 | OF | $3,200 | OF | $3,400 |
6 | Hernan Perez | RIGHT | 0.303 | 0.132 | 29.6% | 0.258 | OF | $2,800 | 3B/OF | $3,400 |
7 | Orlando Arcia | RIGHT | 0.231 | 0.128 | 22.6% | 0.245 | SS | $3,200 | SS | $2,900 |
8 | Martin Maldonado | RIGHT | 0.299 | 0.180 | 33.3% | 0.356 | C | $2,500 | C | $2,600 |
9 | Taylor Jungmann | RIGHT | 0.176 | 0.000 | 0.0% | P | $5,800 | P | $6,600 | |
Team Averages | — | 0.298 | 0.154 | 29.1% | 0.330 | — | — | — | — |
Elite Plays – Jonathan Villar, Ryan Braun
Secondary Plays – Chris Carter, Scooter Gennett
Stackability – YELLOW
Chicago White Sox at Cleveland – 7:10 PM ET
Chicago White Sox | Cleveland | ||||||||
Jose Quintana | Cody Anderson | ||||||||
LEFT | RIGHT | ||||||||
Vegas Moneyline | Vegas Over/Under | ||||||||
CLE -110 | 8.5 | ||||||||
Stats | wOBA | HR All. | HC% | K% | Stats | wOBA | HR All. | HC% | K% |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
SP vs. Left (2016) | 0.270 | 3 | 32.8% | 21.9% | SP vs. Left (2016) | 0.389 | 7 | 30.8% | 16.9% |
SP vs. Right (2016) | 0.303 | 18 | 33.4% | 21.8% | SP vs. Right (2016) | 0.370 | 5 | 31.8% | 21.9% |
Pitcher Grind Down
Jose Quintana | ||||||||||
FanDuel | DraftKings | |||||||||
Salary: | $8,800 | Salary: | $8,800 | |||||||
FPPG: | 34.5 | FPPG: | 18.4 | |||||||
Pitcher Rating: | 65.1 | Pitcher Rank: | 13 | |||||||
Statistics | Starts | PitchPS | SIERA | ERA | K% | BB% | SS% | GB% | FB% | HC% |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
L30 Days | 5 | 101.2 | 3.23 | 3.93 | 25.7% | 3.7% | 7.5% | 43.2% | 31.6% | 36.8% |
2016 | 30 | 102.5 | 3.96 | 3.26 | 21.8% | 5.7% | 7.7% | 40.5% | 39.1% | 33.3% |
2015 | 32 | 105.4 | 3.62 | 3.36 | 20.5% | 5.1% | 9.2% | 47.1% | 29.7% | 27.7% |
Home (2015-16):—ERA: 3.18 — K%: 21.8% — wOBA Allowed: 0.287
Away (2015-16):—ERA: 3.43 — K%: 20.6% — wOBA Allowed: 0.320
Quintana had one of his poorer starts on the year last time out against the Royals. With that said, on the year he has been very consistent, putting up a 3.96 SIERA and 21.8 percent strikeout rate. He gets a tough matchup against the Indians, who have been playing some great baseball and are ranked 12th in team wOBA against lefties. While I do like Quintana, the matchup makes him tough to play tonight.
Cody Anderson | ||||||||||
FanDuel | DraftKings | |||||||||
Salary: | $5,100 | Salary: | $4,000 | |||||||
FPPG: | 13.2 | FPPG: | 5.9 | |||||||
Pitcher Rating: | 57.7 | Pitcher Rank: | 16 | |||||||
Statistics | Starts | PitchPS | SIERA | ERA | K% | BB% | SS% | GB% | FB% | HC% |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
L30 Days | 0 | 0.0 | 3.22 | 0.00 | 28.6% | 10.7% | 15.3% | 52.9% | 23.5% | 23.5% |
2016 | 8 | 116.4 | 4.03 | 6.24 | 19.2% | 5.1% | 11.9% | 40.8% | 33.5% | 31.3% |
2015 | 15 | 86.3 | 4.89 | 3.05 | 12.1% | 6.6% | 7.8% | 45.9% | 33.6% | 27.4% |
Home (2015-16):—ERA: 5.30 — K%: 14.3% — wOBA Allowed: 0.352
Away (2015-16):—ERA: 3.32 — K%: 15.7% — wOBA Allowed: 0.292
Anderson takes the ball for the Indians today and has not made a start since late May. This means the White Sox will see him for likely 2-3 innings before the rest of the bullpen gets put in play. That makes Anderson an easy fade tonight.
Batter Grind Down
Chicago White Sox
The Sox are going to see a bit of Anderson and then the rest of the Cleveland bullpen tonight. The Sox have a 4.19 team total (12th-lowest), which is not stack-worthy, but they may be a decent source of value high up in the order.
- White Sox Offense (2016)
Team wOBA vs. RHP — 0.309 (24 of 30)
Team wOBA L30 Days — 0.335 (6 of 30)
Team ISO vs. RHP — 0.147 (24 of 30)
Team K% vs. RHP — 20.6% (15 of 30)
Pitches Per PA vs. RHP — 3.85 (17 of 30)
Runs Per Game — 4.19 (23 of 30)
Projected Run Total — 4.19 (19 of 30)
Projected Lineup
# | Player | Bats | wOBA vs. RHP | ISO vs. RHP | HC% vs. RHP | wOBA L14 | FD Position | FD Salary | DK Position | DK Salary |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
1 | Leury Garcia | SWITCH | 0.277 | 0.000 | 20.0% | 0.263 | OF | $3,200 | ||
2 | Tim Anderson | RIGHT | 0.286 | 0.120 | 29.8% | 0.229 | SS | $2,900 | SS | $4,100 |
3 | Melky Cabrera | SWITCH | 0.332 | 0.144 | 28.5% | 0.326 | OF | $3,000 | OF | $4,400 |
4 | Jose Abreu | RIGHT | 0.357 | 0.167 | 31.5% | 0.377 | 1B | $3,500 | 1B | $5,300 |
5 | Justin Morneau | LEFT | 0.318 | 0.172 | 28.7% | 0.280 | 1B | $2,500 | 1B | $3,900 |
6 | Todd Frazier | RIGHT | 0.317 | 0.223 | 30.9% | 0.376 | 3B | $3,200 | 3B | $4,700 |
7 | Avisail Garcia | RIGHT | 0.303 | 0.134 | 32.9% | 0.324 | OF | $3,300 | OF | $3,800 |
8 | Omar Narvaez | LEFT | 0.278 | 0.043 | 12.9% | 0.127 | C | $2,300 | C | $3,200 |
9 | Carlos Sanchez | SWITCH | 0.263 | 0.159 | 24.2% | 0.331 | 2B | $2,800 | 2B | $3,400 |
Team Averages | — | 0.303 | 0.129 | 26.6% | 0.293 | — | — | — | — |
Elite Plays – Jose Abreu, Melky Cabrera
Secondary Plays – Tim Anderson, Todd Frazier
Stackability – ORANGE
Cleveland
Quintana has held lefties in check this year while allowing just a .307 wOBA to righties on the year. The Indians are small favorites with a team total of 4.31 today. The guy who is on fire right now is Carlos Santana who is 12 for his last 22 with seven extra-base hits.
- Indians Offense (2016)
Team wOBA vs. LHP — 0.324 (12 of 30)
Team wOBA L30 Days — 0.318 (13 of 30)
Team ISO vs. LHP — 0.151 (21 of 30)
Team K% vs. LHP — 20.4% (10 of 30)
Pitches Per PA vs. LHP — 3.90 (14 of 30)
Runs Per Game — 4.87 (4 of 30)
Projected Run Total — 4.31 (14 of 30)
Projected Lineup
# | Player | Bats | wOBA vs. LHP | ISO vs. LHP | HC% vs. LHP | wOBA L14 | FD Position | FD Salary | DK Position | DK Salary |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
1 | Rajai Davis | RIGHT | 0.302 | 0.149 | 27.3% | 0.214 | OF | $2,900 | OF | $4,300 |
2 | Jason Kipnis | LEFT | 0.345 | 0.180 | 28.9% | 0.308 | 2B | $3,800 | 2B | $4,100 |
3 | Francisco Lindor | SWITCH | 0.309 | 0.112 | 28.7% | 0.184 | SS | $3,400 | SS | $3,500 |
4 | Mike Napoli | RIGHT | 0.360 | 0.203 | 44.9% | 0.308 | 1B | $3,400 | 1B | $3,900 |
5 | Carlos Santana | SWITCH | 0.318 | 0.120 | 28.6% | 0.448 | 1B | $3,900 | 1B | $4,500 |
6 | Jose Ramirez | SWITCH | 0.359 | 0.155 | 31.3% | 0.403 | P | $4,000 | 3B/OF | $4,200 |
7 | Brandon Guyer | RIGHT | 0.436 | 0.224 | 31.7% | 0.419 | OF | $2,600 | OF | $3,900 |
8 | Coco Crisp | SWITCH | 0.278 | 0.144 | 23.8% | 0.231 | OF | $2,500 | OF | $3,400 |
9 | Roberto Perez | RIGHT | 0.270 | 0.114 | 21.2% | 0.277 | C | $2,500 | C | $2,500 |
Team Averages | — | 0.331 | 0.156 | 29.6% | 0.310 | — | — | — | — |