MLB Grind Down: Saturday, September 24th

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The RotoGrinders MLB Grind Down will give you an in-depth analysis into the upcoming MLB schedule. This article will break down the numbers for every single game and give you analysis on which trends you can exploit. While matchups are a major factor in daily fantasy baseball, there are plenty of other factors to consider such as injuries, weather, and salaries.

The analysis should point you in the right direction, but it is still up to you to decipher the information and make your own selections. No sport has more variance than baseball. The best choice is not always the right choice but following the trends will win you money over time.

Note: As always, if you want to try a new DFS site, be sure to click through a RotoGrinders link and use our DraftKings promo code and FanDuel promo code to receive the best perks in the industry.


Stackability Rating System:

GREEN – One of the top stacks of the day, viable in cash games and GPPs
YELLOW – A viable stack option in most formats, specifically GPPs
ORANGE – There are better stacks out there, but playable in large GPPs
RED – Not a recommended stack for cash games or GPPs


St. Louis at Chicago Cubs – 4:00 AM ET

St. Louis Chicago Cubs
Article Image Alex Reyes Article Image Jason Hammel
RIGHT RIGHT
Vegas Moneyline Vegas Over/Under
CHC -142 8.5
Stats wOBA HR All. HC% K% Stats wOBA HR All. HC% K%
SP vs. Left (2016) 0.264 0 15.8% 19.3% SP vs. Left (2016) 0.346 11 32.8% 20.4%
SP vs. Right (2016) 0.208 1 31.8% 34.9% SP vs. Right (2016) 0.281 13 32.1% 21.4%

Pitcher Grind Down

Alex Reyes
Article Image FanDuel DraftKings
Salary: $5,500 Salary: $7,700
FPPG: 24.9 FPPG: 14.0
Pitcher Rating: 61.9 Pitcher Rank: 15
Statistics Starts PitchPS SIERA ERA K% BB% SS% GB% FB% HC%
L30 Days 2 198.0 4.30 1.64 28.0% 15.1% 12.4% 42.0% 48.0% 26.4%
2016 3 193.0 3.90 1.03 28.6% 12.9% 12.3% 44.3% 44.3% 24.4%

Home (2015-16):ERA: 0.73 — K%: 24.5% — wOBA Allowed: 0.228
Away (2015-16):ERA: 1.19 — K%: 31.0% — wOBA Allowed: 0.232

Reyes has now fully taken over a starting rotation spot, as Garcia has continued to struggle. On the season, he has a solid 1.03 ERA to go along with an elite 28.6% strikeout rate. His SIERA sits almost three full runs higher at 3.90, which shows a bit of regression may be in order, and that could happen today against a Cubs squad that is ranked eighth in wOBA and third in runs per game. There are better daytime options, but he Reyes very cheap at FD today.

Jason Hammel
Article Image FanDuel DraftKings
Salary: $8,500 Salary: $8,800
FPPG: 26.6 FPPG: 13.6
Pitcher Rating: 68.9 Pitcher Rank: 8
Statistics Starts PitchPS SIERA ERA K% BB% SS% GB% FB% HC%
L30 Days 5 86.6 4.53 8.61 19.8% 7.8% 11.8% 32.5% 42.5% 46.3%
2016 29 88.6 4.25 3.56 21.0% 7.7% 10.2% 42.7% 37.9% 32.4%
2015 31 88.7 3.45 3.74 24.2% 5.6% 10.9% 38.3% 37.2% 32.9%

Home (2015-16):ERA: 2.93 — K%: 22.1% — wOBA Allowed: 0.285
Away (2015-16):ERA: 4.39 — K%: 23.2% — wOBA Allowed: 0.329

Hammel bounced back from two subpar starts to go seven strong with just two earned runs in his last start. He will look to continue that form against a solid Cards lineup that has hit him for 10 earned runs over 24.2 innings. This Cardinals offense has been solid all year, as they are ranked fourth in wOBA and second in ISO against right-handed pitching. With that said, Vegas has him as a decent favorite, and he is in play if you do not want to pay the premium for Darvish in the early slate.

Batter Grind Down

St. Louis

If you want to attack Hammel, do it from the left side of the plate, where he has allowed a .346 wOBA to lefties. The Cardinals have a low projected run total, and I won’t have too much exposure, except for one off lefties.

Projected Lineup

# Player Bats wOBA vs. RHP ISO vs. RHP HC% vs. RHP wOBA L14 FD Position FD Salary DK Position DK Salary
1 Matt Carpenter LEFT 0.388 0.266 47.1% 0.311 2B $3,500 2B/3B $4,100
2 Aledmys Diaz RIGHT 0.396 0.238 35.1% 0.304 SS $3,300 SS $4,700
3 Stephen Piscotty RIGHT 0.319 0.156 33.1% 0.256 OF $3,100 OF $3,600
4 Matt Adams LEFT 0.326 0.214 37.6% 0.373 1B $2,700 1B $3,600
5 Yadier Molina RIGHT 0.329 0.112 32.7% 0.295 C $2,800 C $3,100
6 Randal Grichuk RIGHT 0.331 0.252 41.9% 0.343 OF $3,500 OF $4,400
7 Jhonny Peralta RIGHT 0.304 0.153 33.6% 0.225 SS $2,800 3B $2,800
8 Kolten Wong LEFT 0.298 0.116 24.6% 0.241 2B $2,700 2B $2,700
9 Alex Reyes RIGHT 0.098 0.000 0.0% 0.000 P $5,500 P $7,700
Team Averages 0.310 0.167 31.7% 0.261

Elite Plays – Matt Carpenter

Secondary Plays – Matt Adams, Kolten Wong

Stackability – RED

Chicago Cubs

The Cubs are decent favorites today and come in with a projected run total of 4.50, which is the 11th-highest of the entire slate. They are a decent offense to attack in the early slate.

Projected Lineup

# Player Bats wOBA vs. RHP ISO vs. RHP HC% vs. RHP wOBA L14 FD Position FD Salary DK Position DK Salary
1 Dexter Fowler SWITCH 0.356 0.165 28.1% 0.478 OF $4,000 OF $5,100
2 Kris Bryant RIGHT 0.388 0.253 41.2% 0.316 3B $4,200 3B/OF $4,800
3 Anthony Rizzo LEFT 0.408 0.277 39.1% 0.357 1B $4,500 1B $5,200
4 Ben Zobrist SWITCH 0.345 0.159 32.9% 0.293 2B $3,000 2B $4,000
5 Addison Russell RIGHT 0.314 0.163 29.4% 0.338 SS $2,400 SS $3,700
6 Jason Heyward LEFT 0.284 0.097 27.1% 0.348 OF $2,900 OF $3,200
7 Chris Coghlan LEFT 0.262 0.135 29.8% 0.466 OF $3,000 2B/OF $2,800
8 Miguel Montero LEFT 0.314 0.161 30.1% 0.347 C $2,500 C $3,500
9 Jason Hammel RIGHT 0.224 0.060 18.2% 0.219 P $8,500 P $8,800
Team Averages 0.322 0.163 30.7% 0.351

Elite Plays – Anthony Rizzo, Kris Bryant

Secondary Plays – Dexter Fowler, Ben Zobrist

Stackability – ORANGE

NY Yankees at Toronto – 1:07 PM ET

NY Yankees Toronto
Article Image CC Sabathia Article Image Marcus Stroman
LEFT RIGHT
Vegas Moneyline Vegas Over/Under
TOR -188 9.0
Stats wOBA HR All. HC% K% Stats wOBA HR All. HC% K%
SP vs. Left (2016) 0.307 4 22.2% 23.8% SP vs. Left (2016) 0.323 11 33.8% 19.5%
SP vs. Right (2016) 0.320 17 26.3% 18.9% SP vs. Right (2016) 0.310 10 29.3% 20.0%

Pitcher Grind Down

CC Sabathia
Article Image FanDuel DraftKings
Salary: $7,100 Salary: $7,400
FPPG: 28.1 FPPG: 14.1
Pitcher Rating: 49.2 Pitcher Rank: 23
Statistics Starts PitchPS SIERA ERA K% BB% SS% GB% FB% HC%
L30 Days 5 96.0 3.55 2.40 22.9% 5.1% 10.8% 54.2% 33.7% 25.0%
2016 28 96.9 4.36 4.19 19.8% 8.4% 9.9% 49.2% 33.6% 25.5%
2015 29 93.2 4.08 4.73 18.9% 6.9% 9.1% 45.9% 32.4% 29.1%

Home (2015-16):ERA: 5.14 — K%: 19.9% — wOBA Allowed: 0.336
Away (2015-16):ERA: 3.88 — K%: 18.9% — wOBA Allowed: 0.326

Sabathia has not been terrible this year, as he sports a 4.35 SIERA and 19.8 percent strikeout rate. Still, the matchup today is one that can easily pick him apart, as he takes on a Blue Jays squad in Rogers Centre. Due to the park and the team, Sabathia is an easy fade today.

Marcus Stroman
Article Image FanDuel DraftKings
Salary: $7,600 Salary: $8,500
FPPG: 28.9 FPPG: 14.6
Pitcher Rating: 71.7 Pitcher Rank: 7
Statistics Starts PitchPS SIERA ERA K% BB% SS% GB% FB% HC%
L30 Days 5 96.6 3.19 4.15 22.7% 7.0% 11.6% 64.0% 15.7% 30.0%
2016 30 96.9 3.54 4.50 19.7% 6.1% 9.4% 60.4% 20.1% 31.6%
2015 4 93.3 3.28 1.67 17.5% 5.8% 7.2% 64.1% 17.9% 21.8%

Home (2015-16):ERA: 4.33 — K%: 18.1% — wOBA Allowed: 0.307
Away (2015-16):ERA: 3.98 — K%: 20.7% — wOBA Allowed: 0.310

Stroman has been a solid mid-priced pitcher this year for fantasy purposes. He never gets priced too high because his strikeout rate is just 19.7 percent, but he does have a 3.54 SIERA in 30 starts this year. He gets a matchup against the Yankees today, who are an average offense on the season, but do have the eighth-highest team wOBA in the last 30 days. Stroman is in play as an SP2 and could be used on FD as he should be in line for the win today.

Batter Grind Down

NY Yankees

Stroman has allowed a .323 wOBA to left-handed batters, which could bode well for a few of the Yankee bats depending on who they throw out there. I will not have too much exposure though, as Vegas has the Yankees projected to score the seventh-fewest runs of any team on the day.

Projected Lineup

# Player Bats wOBA vs. RHP ISO vs. RHP HC% vs. RHP wOBA L14 FD Position FD Salary DK Position DK Salary
1 Brett Gardner LEFT 0.325 0.108 26.6% 0.329 OF $3,200 OF $4,000
2 Jacoby Ellsbury LEFT 0.330 0.133 27.5% 0.270 OF $3,000 OF $3,500
3 Gary Sanchez RIGHT 0.519 0.416 42.3% 0.483 C $4,300 C $5,000
4 Brian McCann LEFT 0.334 0.182 37.2% 0.408 C $3,100 C $3,800
5 Mark Teixeira SWITCH 0.269 0.159 31.9% 0.374 1B $2,600 1B $3,100
6 Didi Gregorius LEFT 0.311 0.181 25.8% 0.274 SS $2,900 SS $3,300
7 Chase Headley SWITCH 0.319 0.163 32.7% 0.306 3B $2,700 3B $3,200
8 Mason Williams LEFT 0.399 0.000 33.3% 0.362 OF $2,400
9 Ronald Torreyes RIGHT 0.335 0.152 22.5% 0.168 3B $2,400 3B/SS $2,400
Team Averages 0.349 0.166 31.1% 0.330

Elite Plays – Brett Gardner, Jacoby Ellsbury

Secondary Plays – Gary Sanchez

Stackability – RED

Toronto

Toronto is a huge favorite today against Sabathia, who has allowed a .307+ wOBA from both sides of the plate this year. The Jays have a projected run total of 5.01, which is the highest of the entire 30 teams on the schedule today. Stack ‘em up against Sabathia with confidence today.

Projected Lineup

# Player Bats wOBA vs. LHP ISO vs. LHP HC% vs. LHP wOBA L14 FD Position FD Salary DK Position DK Salary
1 Devon Travis RIGHT 0.260 0.078 25.7% 0.366 2B $3,700 2B $3,800
2 Jose Bautista RIGHT 0.318 0.212 41.4% 0.367 OF $3,900 OF $4,100
3 Edwin Encarnacion RIGHT 0.377 0.287 38.8% 0.372 1B $4,100 1B $5,100
4 Russell Martin RIGHT 0.311 0.155 47.8% 0.284 C $3,000 C $3,900
5 Troy Tulowitzki RIGHT 0.335 0.167 33.3% 0.282 SS $3,200 SS $3,400
6 Melvin Upton RIGHT 0.377 0.279 29.9% 0.198 OF $3,400 OF $3,800
7 Kevin Pillar RIGHT 0.310 0.128 33.9% 0.294 OF $2,800 OF $3,300
8 Ezequiel Carrera LEFT 0.397 0.138 25.9% 0.376 OF $2,300 OF $3,100
9 Darwin Barney RIGHT 0.343 0.115 31.3% 0.277 2B $2,100 2B/3B $2,700
Team Averages 0.336 0.173 34.2% 0.313

Elite Plays – Edwin Encarnacion, Josh Donaldson, Devon Travis, Russell Martin

Secondary Plays – Troy Tulowitzki, Melvin Upton, Kevin Pillar

Stackability – GREEN

Texas at Oakland – 4:05 PM ET

Texas Oakland
Article Image Yu Darvish Article Image Raul Alcantara
RIGHT RIGHT
Vegas Moneyline Vegas Over/Under
TEX -200 8.0
Stats wOBA HR All. HC% K% Stats wOBA HR All. HC% K%
SP vs. Left (2016) 0.282 4 33.3% 28.9% SP vs. Left (2016) 0.310 1 46.4% 6.3%
SP vs. Right (2016) 0.305 8 26.8% 31.2% SP vs. Right (2016) 0.443 2 40.9% 16.1%

Pitcher Grind Down

Yu Darvish
Article Image FanDuel DraftKings
Salary: $10,700 Salary: $10,400
FPPG: 36.3 FPPG: 20.0
Pitcher Rating: 86.6 Pitcher Rank: 4
Statistics Starts PitchPS SIERA ERA K% BB% SS% GB% FB% HC%
L30 Days 5 94.2 4.07 6.04 27.1% 11.6% 9.8% 44.2% 41.6% 26.0%
2016 15 92.2 3.28 3.81 30.2% 7.9% 11.9% 40.4% 39.6% 29.8%

Home (2015-16):ERA: 4.59 — K%: 27.4% — wOBA Allowed: 0.313
Away (2015-16):ERA: 2.72 — K%: 34.2% — wOBA Allowed: 0.269

Darvish comes in with a 3.21 SIERA and elite 30.2% strikeout rate. He is in a fantastic spot today against the Athletics, who ranked 27th in wOBA and 23rd in ISO. He also should get plenty of run support as he gets to face Alcantara on the mound against him and is a -200 favorite. He gets a great ballpark boost, and his strikeout rate should outweigh the fact that the A’s strike out at a low 18.9 percent rate. He is the best option of the early slate.

Raul Alcantara
Article Image FanDuel DraftKings
Salary: $5,600 Salary: $4,300
FPPG: 16.3 FPPG: 6.2
Pitcher Rating: 24.1 Pitcher Rank: 30
Statistics Starts PitchPS SIERA ERA K% BB% SS% GB% FB% HC%
L30 Days 3 83.3 5.23 5.65 11.1% 3.2% 5.2% 36.0% 46.0% 46.0%
2016 3 83.3 5.22 5.65 11.1% 3.2% 5.2% 36.0% 46.0% 44.0%

Home (2015-16):ERA: 7.27 — K%: 9.8% — wOBA Allowed: 0.443
Away (2015-16):ERA: 3.18 — K%: 13.6% — wOBA Allowed: 0.251

Alcantara is someone who is never really an option for DFS. He has a 5.21 SIERA with a low strikeout rate of 11.1 percent after his first three starts. Today, he has a very difficult matchup against the Rangers, who are a top-10 offense on the year and have been rolling lately, as they have the fourth-highest team wOBA in the last 30 days. Avoid Alcantara today.

Batter Grind Down

Texas

In a short sample size, Alcantara has given up a very high .443 wOBA to righties and .310 to lefties. This puts the majority of the Texas lineup in play today, as they have a 4.58 projected total (seventh-highest). It’s worth noting, though, that Texas clinched the AL West last night, so odds are we’ll see lots of reserves in the lineup today.

Projected Lineup

# Player Bats wOBA vs. RHP ISO vs. RHP HC% vs. RHP wOBA L14 FD Position FD Salary DK Position DK Salary
1 Carlos Gomez RIGHT 0.291 0.158 30.3% 0.390 OF $3,500 OF $3,400
2 Ian Desmond RIGHT 0.332 0.169 30.3% 0.302 OF $3,900 OF $3,600
3 Carlos Beltran SWITCH 0.342 0.207 34.5% 0.339 OF $3,800 OF $3,700
4 Adrian Beltre RIGHT 0.351 0.197 33.2% 0.452 3B $3,000 3B $4,100
5 Rougned Odor LEFT 0.347 0.247 33.8% 0.263 2B $3,700 2B $4,300
6 Jonathan Lucroy RIGHT 0.371 0.193 32.4% 0.278 C $3,300 C $4,400
7 Mitch Moreland LEFT 0.313 0.198 35.8% 0.188 1B $3,100 1B $2,900
8 Nomar Mazara LEFT 0.351 0.195 30.2% 0.381 OF $3,500 OF $4,100
9 Elvis Andrus RIGHT 0.327 0.123 25.9% 0.426 SS $2,800 SS $3,900
Team Averages 0.336 0.187 31.8% 0.335

Elite Plays – Carlos Gomez, Adrian Beltre

Secondary Plays – Ian Desmond, Carlos Beltran, Rougned Odor

Stackability – YELLOW

Oakland

There is no need to spend any salary dollars on the Athletics bats today. They are huge underdogs, are facing Darvish, and have the fourth-lowest team total of the entire day.

Projected Lineup

# Player Bats wOBA vs. RHP ISO vs. RHP HC% vs. RHP wOBA L14 FD Position FD Salary DK Position DK Salary
1 Joey Wendle LEFT 0.289 0.057 30.4% 0.303 2B $2,400 2B $2,400
2 Stephen Vogt LEFT 0.316 0.157 27.0% 0.302 C $3,000 C $3,200
3 Ryon Healy RIGHT 0.353 0.195 28.0% 0.439 3B $3,500 3B $3,500
4 Danny Valencia RIGHT 0.324 0.145 31.6% 0.311 3B $2,900 3B/OF $3,300
5 Yonder Alonso LEFT 0.307 0.119 34.7% 0.347 1B $2,500 1B $2,800
6 Marcus Semien RIGHT 0.301 0.180 27.4% 0.281 SS $3,000 SS $3,200
7 Bruce Maxwell LEFT 0.349 0.137 43.2% 0.438 C $2,800 C $2,400
8 Brett Eibner RIGHT 0.262 0.163 21.2% 0.318 OF $2,000 OF $3,000
9 Jake Smolinski RIGHT 0.256 0.069 28.6% 0.170 OF $2,400 OF $2,300
Team Averages 0.306 0.136 30.2% 0.323

Elite Plays – None

Secondary Plays – None

Stackability – RED

Boston at Tampa Bay – 6:10 PM ET

Boston Tampa Bay
Article Image Rick Porcello Article Image Matt Andriese
RIGHT RIGHT
Vegas Moneyline Vegas Over/Under
BOS -140 8.0
Stats wOBA HR All. HC% K% Stats wOBA HR All. HC% K%
SP vs. Left (2016) 0.253 8 32.9% 21.6% SP vs. Left (2016) 0.298 7 33.9% 19.0%
SP vs. Right (2016) 0.291 14 28.7% 20.1% SP vs. Right (2016) 0.314 8 33.2% 21.6%

Pitcher Grind Down

Rick Porcello
Article Image FanDuel DraftKings
Salary: $9,800 Salary: $12,600
FPPG: 38.4 FPPG: 20.6
Pitcher Rating: 78.9 Pitcher Rank: 5
Statistics Starts PitchPS SIERA ERA K% BB% SS% GB% FB% HC%
L30 Days 6 109.5 3.44 2.47 23.0% 1.8% 9.4% 42.3% 40.7% 30.1%
2016 31 102.9 3.78 3.08 20.9% 3.5% 8.0% 44.4% 37.2% 30.9%
2015 28 98.0 3.73 4.92 20.2% 5.2% 8.5% 45.7% 32.5% 32.8%

Home (2015-16):ERA: 3.49 — K%: 21.2% — wOBA Allowed: 0.295
Away (2015-16):ERA: 4.28 — K%: 20.0% — wOBA Allowed: 0.311

Porcello has been extremely consistent over the course of his last 10 games and for the majority of the second have of the season. He rocks a 3.44 SIERA and 23 percent strikeout rate over the last month of play and he has been great against this Rays squad, as he has a 2.86 ERA after 34.2 innings with 37 strikeouts. His price is tough to play at DK, but is fully in play at FanDuel today.

Matt Andriese
Article Image FanDuel DraftKings
Salary: $5,800 Salary: $5,800
FPPG: 21.0 FPPG: 10.9
Pitcher Rating: 53.9 Pitcher Rank: 17
Statistics Starts PitchPS SIERA ERA K% BB% SS% GB% FB% HC%
L30 Days 6 87.3 3.93 7.34 20.1% 3.6% 9.4% 41.5% 38.7% 29.3%
2016 17 106.9 3.90 4.41 20.4% 4.8% 10.3% 43.8% 36.8% 33.5%
2015 8 136.0 4.02 4.11 17.4% 6.4% 8.6% 48.1% 34.8% 32.9%

Home (2015-16):ERA: 4.03 — K%: 20.1% — wOBA Allowed: 0.296
Away (2015-16):ERA: 4.65 — K%: 18.2% — wOBA Allowed: 0.327

Andriese has a 3.90 SIERA on the year with a decent 20.4 percent strikeout rate. While those are good numbers, he has to face the Red Sox today, who are arguably the best offense in baseball, and against whom he has a 7.11 ERA against on the year. He is an easy fade this afternoon.

Batter Grind Down

Boston

The Red Sox get a major downgrade in parks today and Vegas adapts accordingly. They are decent favorites today, but they just have a middle-of-the-road projected run total of 4.23 (16th-highest). The big bats are always in play against a non-elite pitcher, but there are better offenses late.

Projected Lineup

# Player Bats wOBA vs. RHP ISO vs. RHP HC% vs. RHP wOBA L14 FD Position FD Salary DK Position DK Salary
1 Dustin Pedroia RIGHT 0.359 0.129 33.2% 0.293 2B $3,200 2B $3,400
2 Xander Bogaerts RIGHT 0.339 0.147 29.1% 0.329 SS $3,900 SS $4,300
3 Mookie Betts RIGHT 0.388 0.216 33.6% 0.370 OF $4,100 OF $5,400
4 David Ortiz LEFT 0.448 0.365 46.9% 0.442 1B $3,900 1B $5,500
5 Hanley Ramirez RIGHT 0.345 0.189 37.6% 0.547 1B $4,100 1B $4,900
6 Travis Shaw LEFT 0.331 0.184 36.3% 0.212 3B $3,200 1B/3B $3,300
7 Jackie Bradley Jr. LEFT 0.387 0.269 39.5% 0.386 OF $3,600 OF $4,400
8 Sandy Leon SWITCH 0.338 0.152 34.7% 0.197 C $2,900 C $3,100
9 Andrew Benintendi LEFT 0.433 0.274 35.3% 0.428 OF $3,100 OF $2,700
Team Averages 0.374 0.214 36.2% 0.356

Elite Plays – David Ortiz, Mookie Betts

Secondary Plays – Dustin Pedroia, Xander Bogaerts

Stackability – ORANGE

Tampa Bay

The Rays are another early offense that we can mostly avoid. They have a projected run total of 3.77, which is the fifth-lowest of the day. They have struggled against Porcello this year, and that should continue today.

Projected Lineup

# Player Bats wOBA vs. RHP ISO vs. RHP HC% vs. RHP wOBA L14 FD Position FD Salary DK Position DK Salary
1 Logan Forsythe RIGHT 0.345 0.180 36.1% 0.311 2B $3,000 2B $2,900
2 Kevin Kiermaier LEFT 0.319 0.167 30.4% 0.369 OF $3,500 OF $3,200
3 Evan Longoria RIGHT 0.366 0.268 37.8% 0.364 3B $3,400 3B $3,600
4 Brad Miller LEFT 0.346 0.270 36.1% 0.326 SS $3,600 1B/SS $3,500
5 Corey Dickerson LEFT 0.329 0.263 30.4% 0.453 OF $3,100 OF $3,300
6 Curt Casali RIGHT 0.223 0.128 31.8% 0.000 C $2,200 C $2,000
7 Alexei Ramirez RIGHT 0.240 0.089 22.4% 0.294 SS $2,300 SS $2,000
8 Richie Shaffer RIGHT 0.270 0.217 33.3% 0.212 1B $2,100 1B/3B $2,100
9 Mikie Mahtook RIGHT 0.200 0.053 28.9% 0.157 OF $2,000 OF $2,000
Team Averages 0.293 0.182 31.9% 0.276

Elite Plays – None

Secondary Plays – None

Stackability – RED

Arizona at Baltimore – 7:05 PM ET

Arizona Baltimore
Article Image Robbie Ray Article Image Wade Miley
LEFT LEFT
Vegas Moneyline Vegas Over/Under
BAL -137 9.5
Stats wOBA HR All. HC% K% Stats wOBA HR All. HC% K%
SP vs. Left (2016) 0.293 3 35.1% 31.9% SP vs. Left (2016) 0.303 3 37.8% 20.0%
SP vs. Right (2016) 0.336 18 37.3% 27.6% SP vs. Right (2016) 0.364 21 30.9% 17.4%

Pitcher Grind Down

Robbie Ray
Article Image FanDuel DraftKings
Salary: $8,200 Salary: $8,300
FPPG: 32.3 FPPG: 16.9
Pitcher Rating: 68.3 Pitcher Rank: 9
Statistics Starts PitchPS SIERA ERA K% BB% SS% GB% FB% HC%
L30 Days 5 98.6 3.09 4.94 35.0% 10.3% 14.4% 46.9% 42.2% 35.9%
2016 30 100.4 3.46 4.66 28.7% 8.6% 11.8% 46.0% 32.4% 36.8%
2015 23 98.1 4.05 3.52 21.8% 9.0% 9.0% 43.3% 34.6% 35.0%

Home (2015-16):ERA: 5.16 — K%: 24.7% — wOBA Allowed: 0.352
Away (2015-16):ERA: 3.29 — K%: 26.7% — wOBA Allowed: 0.293

Ray has struggled over his last two games, but on the season he has a 3.46 SIERA. The upside is usually there for him as well, as he has an elite 28.7 percent strikeout rate. He gets a tough matchup in theory, but it’s one that the DFS world is starting to see can be exploitable, as the Orioles are not as dominant as they should be against lefties. With that said, Ray is an underdog in a high-total game, which means there’s risk attached. He should be used as a deep tournament play only.

Wade Miley
Article Image FanDuel DraftKings
Salary: $6,100 Salary: $5,000
FPPG: 22.0 FPPG: 10.2
Pitcher Rating: 52.9 Pitcher Rank: 19
Statistics Starts PitchPS SIERA ERA K% BB% SS% GB% FB% HC%
L30 Days 5 79.0 3.71 9.45 25.3% 8.4% 8.9% 45.0% 23.3% 37.7%
2016 28 89.5 4.42 5.65 18.0% 7.4% 8.7% 47.6% 30.6% 32.3%
2015 32 99.8 4.24 4.46 17.7% 7.7% 8.3% 48.8% 30.5% 24.7%

Home (2015-16):ERA: 4.83 — K%: 20.2% — wOBA Allowed: 0.321
Away (2015-16):ERA: 5.11 — K%: 15.9% — wOBA Allowed: 0.347

Miley is an easy avoid tonight against a Diamondbacks team that is ranked first in wOBA and ISO against left-handed pitching. Miley has been terrible over this last five starts, as he has put up a 9.45 ERA during that span. This is not a matchup to even think about using him. Avoid in all formats.

Batter Grind Down

Arizona

Miley has really struggled against right-handed bats, as he has allowed a .364 wOBA to righties on the year. This bodes well for the Diamondback bats, who have the ninth-highest projected run total on the day. There is a ton of green and blue on the list below, making them a great offense in all formats.

Projected Lineup

# Player Bats wOBA vs. LHP ISO vs. LHP HC% vs. LHP wOBA L14 FD Position FD Salary DK Position DK Salary
1 Jean Segura RIGHT 0.327 0.163 27.3% 0.418 2B $3,600 2B $5,400
2 Chris Owings RIGHT 0.359 0.194 28.4% 0.275 SS $2,500 OF/SS $4,000
3 Paul Goldschmidt RIGHT 0.447 0.233 43.5% 0.399 1B $3,400 1B $5,700
4 Brandon Drury RIGHT 0.313 0.180 34.7% 0.506 OF $3,600 3B/OF $4,600
5 Welington Castillo RIGHT 0.372 0.255 51.8% 0.287 C $3,000 C $4,200
6 Yasmany Tomas RIGHT 0.456 0.320 46.2% 0.411 OF $2,700 OF $4,500
7 Mitch Haniger RIGHT 0.282 0.211 50.0% 0.356 OF $2,400 OF $4,600
8 Kyle Jensen RIGHT 0.735 0.800 44.4% 0.473 OF $2,600 OF $3,000
9 Phil Gosselin RIGHT 0.293 0.063 24.3% 0.256 2B $2,000 2B/3B $3,600
Team Averages 0.398 0.269 39.0% 0.376

Elite Plays – Paul Goldschmidt, Jean Segura, Wellington Castillo

Secondary Plays – Brandon Drury, Chris Owings, Yasmany Tomas

Stackability – YELLOW

Baltimore

Ray has allowed a .336 wOBA to righties on the year, which puts some big bats in play for the Orioles, such as Adam Jones and Manny Machado. This game has a huge total, and the Orioles have the second-highest of the entire day. They are stack-worthy in all formats.

Projected Lineup

# Player Bats wOBA vs. LHP ISO vs. LHP HC% vs. LHP wOBA L14 FD Position FD Salary DK Position DK Salary
1 Adam Jones RIGHT 0.253 0.102 31.4% 0.325 OF $3,500 OF $3,600
2 Chris Davis LEFT 0.318 0.197 33.0% 0.262 1B $3,400 1B $3,500
3 Manny Machado RIGHT 0.390 0.211 37.5% 0.264 3B $3,800 3B/SS $3,900
4 Mark Trumbo RIGHT 0.270 0.226 36.8% 0.223 OF $3,400 OF $3,700
5 Trey Mancini RIGHT 1.006 1.500 50.0% 0.503 1B $2,600 1B $2,500
6 Jonathan Schoop RIGHT 0.282 0.159 21.8% 0.278 2B $3,000 2B $2,900
7 J.J. Hardy RIGHT 0.325 0.188 44.7% 0.430 SS $2,100 SS $3,200
8 Drew Stubbs RIGHT 0.282 0.065 32.1% 0.143 OF $2,400 OF $2,900
9 Caleb Joseph RIGHT 0.101 0.000 15.4% 0.207 C $2,100 C $2,100
Team Averages 0.359 0.294 33.6% 0.293

Elite Plays – Adam Jones, Manny Machado, Mark Trumbo

Secondary Plays – Jonathan Schoop, Chris Davis, J.J. Hardy

Stackability –


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About the Author

Ryan138
Ryan138

Ryan (Ryan138) is from Chicago and has been playing fantasy sports for over 10 years. He has been playing daily fantasy sports for over 2 years since he was introduced to Daily Joust in late 2010. In the last year, Ryan has risen into the Top 100 of the RotoGrinders leaderboards by playing at DraftDay, DraftKings and FanDuel in all the major sports.