MLB Grind Down: Sunday, October 1st

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The RotoGrinders MLB Grind Down will give you an in-depth analysis into the upcoming MLB schedule. This article will break down the numbers for every single game and give you analysis on which trends you can exploit. While matchups are a major factor in daily fantasy baseball, there are plenty of other factors to consider such as injuries, weather, and salaries.

The analysis should point you in the right direction, but it is still up to you to decipher the information and make your own selections. No sport has more variance than baseball. The best choice is not always the right choice but following the trends will win you money over time.

Note: As always, if you want to try a new DFS site, be sure to click through a RotoGrinders link and use our DraftKings promo code, FanDuel promo code, and FantasyDraft promo code to receive the best perks in the industry.


Stackability Rating System:

GREEN – A viable full stack in cash games and GPPs.
YELLOW – A viable mini-stack in cash games and full stack in GPPs.
ORANGE – A viable stack in large field GPPs.
RED – Not a recommended stack for cash games or GPPs.


Houston at Boston – 3:05 PM ET

Houston Boston
Article Image Collin McHugh Article Image Hector Velazquez
RIGHT RIGHT
Vegas Moneyline Vegas Over/Under
TBD
Stats wOBA xwOBA HC% BB% K% GB% Stats wOBA xwOBA HC% BB% K% GB%
SP vs. Left (2016-17) 0.350 0.347 26.8% 8.0% 17.7% 31.3% SP vs. Left (2016-17) 0.373 0.394 31.6% 7.4% 22.2% 36.8%
SP vs. Right (2016-17) 0.308 0.307 33.7% 7.5% 25.4% 33.7% SP vs. Right (2016-17) 0.284 0.287 28.2% 4.1% 16.3% 51.3%

Pitcher Grind Down

Collin McHugh
Article Image FanDuel DraftKings FantasyDraft
Salary: $7,800 Salary: $7,700 Salary:
Salary Rank: 7 of 29 Salary Rank: 7 of 29 Salary Rank: of 29
Stats Starts SIERA ERA K% BB% GB% HC% SC%
2016 33 4.02 4.34 22.2% 6.8% 41.3% 30.2% 20.0%
2017 11 4.47 3.45 21.9% 7.7% 32.5% 30.4% 10.1%
L30 4 5.08 3.06 18.1% 8.4% 34.5% 37.3% 15.3%

This section is important today.

Welcome to the final day of the 2017 regular season. In a strange twist of events, not a single game today has any relevance toward the postseason. The final day of the season is usually a crapshoot, and it’s going to be even worse this year. I would honestly suggest that you don’t play any daily fantasy baseball today. Even if this is the only sport you play and you aren’t interested in football, this is a tough sell. Wait for the playoff games, as the DFS contests for that will be more exciting.

Teams that are in the playoffs will use this as a glorified exhibition. You saw some teams remove players early yesterday, and you will see the same today. The safest players to target are the ones from eliminated teams. Because of all the uncertainty surrounding lineups for today, this article is going to be brief. Again, i would suggest that you sit the day out, as there are going to be a lot of things on this slate that we can’t predict no matter how hard we try.

McHugh has had a solid season for the Astros, but there is no way I am taking a starting pitcher on any playoff-bound team today. it’s not happening.

Quick Breakdown: McHugh likely won’t pitch deep into this game and can be avoided in all formats.

Hector Velazquez
Article Image FanDuel DraftKings FantasyDraft
Salary: $5,500 Salary: $4,100 Salary:
Salary Rank: 23 of 29 Salary Rank: 30 of 29 Salary Rank: of 29
Stats Starts SIERA ERA K% BB% GB% HC% SC%
2017 2 4.13 3.66 18.4% 5.3% 46.6% 29.3% 12.1%
L30 0 1.88 0.00 28.6% 0.0% 60.0% 0.0% 20.0%

Velasquez came up from the Mexican League and has been pitching well for the Red Sox, but he has a below average strikeout rate and doesn’t profile as a pitcher who will go deep into this game. He has been pitching out of the bullpen and hasn’t thrown more than an inning in a game since July.

Quick Breakdown: Velasquez likely won’t be long for this game regardless of how he is pitching. Pass.

Batter Grind Down

Houston

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

# Player Bats wOBA xwOBA ISO HC% BB% K% GB% FD Pos. FD Sal. DK Pos. DK Sal. FDRFT Pos. FDRFT Sal.
1 George Springer RIGHT 0.366 0.359 0.240 37.2% 8.5% 19.4% 50.2% OF $3,700 OF $5,100 N/A N/A
2 Alex Bregman RIGHT 0.329 0.329 0.168 33.8% 8.2% 16.1% 40.4% 3B $4,400 3B/SS $4,100 N/A N/A
3 Jose Altuve RIGHT 0.408 0.360 0.204 29.3% 8.8% 12.9% 46.0% 2B $4,300 2B $5,200 N/A N/A
4 Carlos Correa RIGHT 0.371 0.377 0.232 38.2% 10.6% 21.0% 47.0% SS $4,000 SS $5,300 N/A N/A
5 Evan Gattis RIGHT 0.342 0.326 0.196 32.8% 5.8% 15.7% 35.1% C $2,800 C $3,700 N/A N/A
6 Marwin Gonzalez SWITCH 0.395 0.334 0.230 35.0% 9.1% 20.2% 44.0% OF $3,500 OF/SS $4,800 N/A N/A
7 Yuli Gurriel RIGHT 0.361 0.335 0.205 33.3% 3.1% 9.7% 45.1% 1B $3,500 1B $3,700 N/A N/A
8 Cameron Maybin RIGHT 0.303 0.295 0.164 24.5% 13.1% 21.3% 57.8% OF $2,800 OF $3,600 N/A N/A
9 Brian McCann LEFT 0.312 0.325 0.177 33.5% 9.5% 15.8% 39.1% C $3,200 C $3,400 N/A N/A

You can ignore that projected lineup above. You will see the reserves for Houston today. Keep an eye on the lineup here.

Elite Plays – TBA – If the reserves start, I like them as values.

Secondary Plays – TBA – depends on lineup.

Stackability – YELLOW

Boston

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

# Player Bats wOBA xwOBA ISO HC% BB% K% GB% FD Pos. FD Sal. DK Pos. DK Sal. FDRFT Pos. FDRFT Sal.
1 Xander Bogaerts RIGHT 0.316 0.279 0.133 31.7% 8.3% 18.5% 48.5% SS $3,800 SS $4,600 N/A N/A
2 Dustin Pedroia RIGHT 0.322 0.311 0.094 25.1% 8.9% 10.5% 49.7% 2B $2,900 2B $3,400 N/A N/A
3 Andrew Benintendi LEFT 0.349 0.345 0.182 37.1% 10.1% 16.7% 36.9% OF $3,600 OF $4,700 N/A N/A
4 Mookie Betts RIGHT 0.326 0.332 0.188 36.3% 9.4% 11.9% 39.3% OF $4,400 OF $5,200 N/A N/A
5 Mitch Moreland LEFT 0.327 0.375 0.208 39.3% 9.5% 20.3% 41.3% 1B $3,200 1B $3,800 N/A N/A
6 Hanley Ramirez RIGHT 0.330 0.356 0.184 35.0% 8.1% 20.5% 41.2% 1B $2,600 1B $4,000 N/A N/A
7 Rafael Devers LEFT 0.314 0.289 0.197 35.8% 6.5% 22.0% 49.6% 3B $3,300 3B $4,000 N/A N/A
8 Sandy Leon SWITCH 0.269 0.266 0.120 31.2% 7.9% 25.7% 35.0% C $2,400 C $2,800 N/A N/A
9 Rajai Davis RIGHT 0.272 0.258 0.110 24.2% 7.0% 24.0% 46.5% OF $2,400 OF $3,600 N/A N/A

You will see the reserves for Boston today, and McHugh isn’t a guy we want to pick on for as long as he is in there.

Elite Plays – None

Secondary Plays – None

Stackability – RED


NY Mets at Philadelphia – 3:05 PM ET

NY Mets Philadelphia
Article Image Noah Syndergaard Article Image Nick Pivetta
RIGHT RIGHT
Vegas Moneyline Vegas Over/Under
PHI-119 9.0
Stats wOBA xwOBA HC% BB% K% GB% Stats wOBA xwOBA HC% BB% K% GB%
SP vs. Left (2016-17) 0.221 0.273 37.1% 3.4% 35.6% 40.0% SP vs. Left (2016-17) 0.308 0.294 29.2% 10.2% 25.1% 43.4%
SP vs. Right (2016-17) 0.289 0.244 23.4% 0.0% 19.0% 69.6% SP vs. Right (2016-17) 0.414 0.363 42.1% 8.4% 22.4% 44.3%

Pitcher Grind Down

Noah Syndergaard
Article Image FanDuel DraftKings FantasyDraft
Salary: $6,000 Salary: $7,500 Salary:
Salary Rank: 21 of 29 Salary Rank: 9 of 29 Salary Rank: of 29
Stats Starts SIERA ERA K% BB% GB% HC% SC%
2016 30 2.95 2.60 29.3% 5.8% 51.2% 28.1% 21.0%
2017 6 2.69 3.18 27.4% 1.7% 56.8% 29.3% 15.9%
L30 1 5.26 0.00 0.0% 0.0% 33.3% 100.0% 0.0%

This is an end of season tune up (which I really don’t understand). Syndergaard only threw one inning in his last start and won’t go too much longer than that today.

Quick Breakdown: He won’t be long for this game, so avoid Syndergaard in all formats.

Nick Pivetta
Article Image FanDuel DraftKings FantasyDraft
Salary: $6,700 Salary: $6,900 Salary:
Salary Rank: 10 of 29 Salary Rank: 13 of 29 Salary Rank: of 29
Stats Starts SIERA ERA K% BB% GB% HC% SC%
2017 25 4.29 6.26 23.7% 9.3% 43.9% 35.9% 15.8%
L30 5 3.57 5.14 23.1% 6.0% 56.8% 28.9% 13.3%

Thanks to the nature of today’s slate, I don’t mind Nick Pivetta today. He is not nearly as bad as his ERA would indicate, as his SIERA is a full two runs better than his 6.26 ERA. He also has a healthy 24% strikeout rate and gets to face a poor Mets lineup.

Quick Breakdown: There isn’t a lot of goodness to be had on this slate, so give Pivetta a look at pitcher.

Batter Grind Down

NY Mets

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

# Player Bats wOBA xwOBA ISO HC% BB% K% GB% FD Pos. FD Sal. DK Pos. DK Sal. FDRFT Pos. FDRFT Sal.
1 Norichika Aoki LEFT 0.327 0.296 0.133 26.1% 7.1% 11.9% 54.7% OF $2,900 OF $3,400 N/A N/A
2 Jose Reyes SWITCH 0.296 0.291 0.142 26.2% 8.9% 13.6% 37.0% SS $4,100 3B/SS $4,200 N/A N/A
3 Asdrubal Cabrera SWITCH 0.312 0.331 0.171 37.1% 10.1% 16.4% 41.0% 3B $3,100 2B/SS $3,600 N/A N/A
4 Travis d’Arnaud RIGHT 0.288 0.304 0.194 33.3% 4.7% 14.9% 38.8% C $2,800 C $3,500 N/A N/A
5 Brandon Nimmo LEFT 0.387 0.361 0.192 36.1% 16.2% 26.6% 44.2% OF $3,100 OF $3,700 N/A N/A
6 Amed Rosario RIGHT 0.277 0.226 0.128 23.5% 1.7% 29.8% 49.4% SS $2,800 SS $2,900 N/A N/A
7 Dominic Smith LEFT 0.291 0.317 0.217 36.8% 4.4% 25.0% 49.5% 1B $2,900 1B $3,000 N/A N/A
8 Juan Lagares RIGHT 0.298 0.263 0.119 31.1% 5.0% 20.6% 52.8% OF $2,800 OF $3,200 N/A N/A
9 Noah Syndergaard RIGHT 0.383 0.000 75.0% 30.0% 30.0% 50.0% P $6,000 P $7,500 N/A N/A

Part of the reason why I like Pivetta is that he is a reverse splits pitcher, so the Mets’ lefties don’t necessarily match up all the great against him. If you go anywhere with bats, RHBs are the preferred plays, as they have posted a .415 wOBA against Pivetta this year.

Elite Plays – Travis D’Arnaud

Secondary Plays – Jose Reyes, Asdrubal Cabrera

Stackability – YELLOW / ORANGE

Philadelphia

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

# Player Bats wOBA xwOBA ISO HC% BB% K% GB% FD Pos. FD Sal. DK Pos. DK Sal. FDRFT Pos. FDRFT Sal.
1 Cesar Hernandez SWITCH 0.339 0.303 0.101 20.8% 10.4% 20.4% 49.8% 2B $3,500 2B $3,400 N/A N/A
2 Freddy Galvis SWITCH 0.303 0.291 0.141 27.9% 7.7% 19.1% 35.5% SS $2,700 SS $2,900 N/A N/A
3 Nick Williams LEFT 0.345 0.326 0.202 39.0% 5.9% 28.2% 48.1% OF $3,200 OF $3,000 WR $6,000
4 Rhys Hoskins RIGHT 0.437 0.383 0.364 46.6% 14.2% 22.0% 29.5% 1B $3,800 1B/OF $3,600 N/A N/A
5 Aaron Altherr RIGHT 0.374 0.327 0.244 37.1% 6.5% 29.1% 41.2% OF $3,300 OF $3,600 N/A N/A
6 Odubel Herrera LEFT 0.326 0.303 0.169 27.8% 6.7% 21.9% 41.2% OF $3,100 OF $3,300 N/A N/A
7 Maikel Franco RIGHT 0.293 0.306 0.165 29.5% 6.5% 15.2% 43.8% 3B $2,900 3B $2,600 N/A N/A
8 Jorge Alfaro RIGHT 0.409 0.319 0.209 21.3% 0.0% 28.2% 55.3% C $3,200 C $2,700 N/A N/A
9 Nick Pivetta RIGHT 0.101 0.125 0.000 11.8% 0.0% 41.4% 53.8% P $6,700 P $6,900 N/A N/A

With this being a bullpen game for the Mets, you could choose a hitter or two here, even though Syndergaard is not a guy we often pick on. He is only expected to throw 25 pitches today.

Elite Plays – Rhys Hoskins

Secondary Plays – Cesar Hernandez

Stackability – YELLOW


Oakland at Texas – 3:05 PM ET

Oakland Texas
Article Image Daniel Mengden Article Image Cole Hamels
RIGHT LEFT
Vegas Moneyline Vegas Over/Under
TEX-140 10.0
Stats wOBA xwOBA HC% BB% K% GB% Stats wOBA xwOBA HC% BB% K% GB%
SP vs. Left (2016-17) 0.350 0.344 25.0% 2.8% 19.4% 33.9% SP vs. Left (2016-17) 0.215 0.284 28.9% 4.7% 16.5% 60.8%
SP vs. Right (2016-17) 0.241 0.363 27.1% 8.3% 9.7% 41.4% SP vs. Right (2016-17) 0.321 0.336 37.5% 9.8% 16.7% 44.6%

Pitcher Grind Down

Daniel Mengden
Article Image FanDuel DraftKings FantasyDraft
Salary: $7,400 Salary: $8,500 Salary:
Salary Rank: 8 of 29 Salary Rank: 4 of 29 Salary Rank: of 29
Stats Starts SIERA ERA K% BB% GB% HC% SC%
2016 14 4.50 6.50 21.4% 9.9% 39.5% 29.5% 18.8%
2017 6 5.06 3.75 14.6% 5.6% 37.7% 26.1% 16.5%
L30 4 4.56 1.93 17.3% 4.8% 42.5% 24.7% 16.1%

Mengden is a below average pitcher with a 5.05 SIERA and a 14.6% strikeout rate this season. He has to face the Rangers in one of the most hitter-friendly parks in the league.

Quick Breakdown: No thanks.

Cole Hamels
Article Image FanDuel DraftKings FantasyDraft
Salary: $8,000 Salary: $7,900 Salary:
Salary Rank: 6 of 29 Salary Rank: 6 of 29 Salary Rank: of 29
Stats Starts SIERA ERA K% BB% GB% HC% SC%
2016 32 3.99 3.32 23.6% 9.1% 49.6% 32.0% 20.4%
2017 23 4.95 4.10 16.7% 8.7% 48.3% 35.6% 14.0%
L30 6 4.72 5.09 21.6% 10.5% 41.6% 36.3% 13.7%

Thanks to the nature of the slate today, I expect Hamels to be somewhat popular. Don’t fall for the name brand trap. Hamels has a 4.94 SIERA and a 16.7% strikeout rate for the season. In other words, he isn’t much better than Mengden on the other side of this game. He gave up six runs in 4 1/3 innings the last time he faced Oakland, too.

Quick Breakdown: Hamels can safely be avoided in all formats. Don’t fall for the trap!

Batter Grind Down

Oakland

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. LH Pitching)

# Player Bats wOBA xwOBA ISO HC% BB% K% GB% FD Pos. FD Sal. DK Pos. DK Sal. FDRFT Pos. FDRFT Sal.
1 Marcus Semien RIGHT 0.314 0.305 0.159 40.6% 11.1% 24.2% 38.1% SS $3,600 SS $3,800 N/A N/A
2 Matt Chapman RIGHT 0.327 0.341 0.213 38.3% 10.6% 34.1% 25.5% 3B $2,700 3B $3,700 N/A N/A
3 Jed Lowrie SWITCH 0.323 0.356 0.136 29.3% 12.5% 18.8% 39.4% 2B $3,900 2B $4,000 N/A N/A
4 Khris Davis RIGHT 0.315 0.386 0.224 50.7% 15.6% 29.8% 41.6% OF $4,200 OF $4,600 N/A N/A
5 Ryon Healy RIGHT 0.370 0.327 0.215 31.7% 4.4% 21.3% 39.6% 1B $3,000 1B/3B $3,600 N/A N/A
6 Renato Nunez RIGHT 0.125 0.000 0.0% 0.0% 42.9% 25.0% OF $2,300 3B $2,200 N/A N/A
7 Josh Phegley RIGHT 0.263 0.292 0.143 28.3% 4.5% 16.4% 30.2% C $2,000 C $2,100 N/A N/A
8 Mark Canha RIGHT 0.249 0.213 0.136 24.4% 2.9% 30.0% 28.9% OF $2,200 OF $2,700 N/A N/A
9 Jake Smolinski RIGHT 0.438 0.000 20.0% 0.0% 16.7% 60.0% OF $2,000 OF $2,500 N/A N/A

This will be a fine game for offense, and we have limited pinch hit risk with both teams eliminated from the playoffs. RHBs have hammered Hamels (say that ten times fast) this year, and Oakland will roll a RH-heavy lineup out there.

Elite Plays – Khris Davis, Matt Chapman, Marcus Semien

Secondary Plays – Ryon Healy, Jed Lowrie, Reynato Nunez

Stackability – YELLOW / GREEN

Texas

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

# Player Bats wOBA xwOBA ISO HC% BB% K% GB% FD Pos. FD Sal. DK Pos. DK Sal. FDRFT Pos. FDRFT Sal.
1 Delino DeShields RIGHT 0.313 0.253 0.074 23.4% 9.1% 22.8% 50.6% OF $2,900 OF $3,600 N/A N/A
2 Shin-soo Choo LEFT 0.333 0.366 0.183 40.1% 11.1% 22.7% 45.4% OF $3,200 OF $4,000 N/A N/A
3 Elvis Andrus RIGHT 0.341 0.301 0.164 29.2% 5.4% 14.9% 49.9% SS $3,400 SS $3,900 N/A N/A
4 Nomar Mazara LEFT 0.334 0.336 0.198 35.0% 10.2% 19.7% 42.2% OF $2,900 OF $4,400 N/A N/A
5 Joey Gallo LEFT 0.357 0.367 0.337 45.9% 14.1% 36.0% 28.9% 1B $2,600 1B/3B $3,500 N/A N/A
6 Rougned Odor LEFT 0.297 0.305 0.226 38.8% 5.7% 25.0% 38.2% 2B $2,100 2B $3,900 N/A N/A
7 Mike Napoli RIGHT 0.301 0.312 0.223 35.2% 9.9% 32.6% 35.1% 1B $2,700 1B $3,000 N/A N/A
8 Robinson Chirinos RIGHT 0.334 0.319 0.234 33.8% 10.1% 26.9% 43.5% C $2,500 C $2,700 N/A N/A
9 Drew Robinson LEFT 0.307 0.302 0.222 31.9% 12.0% 37.0% 46.8% 2B $2,400 2B/OF $2,400 N/A N/A

Texas is facing a bad RHP at home and will not be going to the playoffs, making them one of the safest offenses to target on today’s slate.

Elite Plays – Nomar Mazara, Joey Gallo, Elvis Andrus

Secondary Plays – Shin-Soo Choo, Robinson Chirinos, Rougned Odor

Stackability – GREEN


Pittsburgh at Washington – 3:05 PM ET

Pittsburgh Washington
Article Image Steven Brault Article Image Gio Gonzalez
LEFT LEFT
Vegas Moneyline Vegas Over/Under
WAS-160 8.5
Stats wOBA xwOBA HC% BB% K% GB% Stats wOBA xwOBA HC% BB% K% GB%
SP vs. Left (2016-17) 0.261 0.266 14.3% 8.3% 11.1% 48.1% SP vs. Left (2016-17) 0.231 0.263 23.4% 7.8% 22.8% 51.3%
SP vs. Right (2016-17) 0.324 0.335 36.8% 6.4% 13.6% 39.5% SP vs. Right (2016-17) 0.290 0.297 31.3% 9.9% 23.2% 44.2%

Pitcher Grind Down

Steven Brault
Article Image FanDuel DraftKings FantasyDraft
Salary: $6,300 Salary: $5,700 Salary:
Salary Rank: 16 of 29 Salary Rank: 22 of 29 Salary Rank: of 29
Stats Starts SIERA ERA K% BB% GB% HC% SC%
2016 7 4.86 4.86 17.5% 10.2% 45.1% 25.4% 17.8%
2017 3 5.15 3.86 13.0% 6.9% 41.6% 31.3% 21.7%
L30 3 5.08 4.05 13.1% 4.8% 40.3% 29.9% 25.4%

His surface ERA isn’t that bad, but Brault owns a SIERA over 5.00 and a 13% strikeout rate. That won’t get the job done no matter the opponent.

Quick Breakdown: Brault can safely be avoided in all formats.

Gio Gonzalez
Article Image FanDuel DraftKings FantasyDraft
Salary: $9,000 Salary: $10,500 Salary:
Salary Rank: 2 of 29 Salary Rank: 2 of 29 Salary Rank: of 29
Stats Starts SIERA ERA K% BB% GB% HC% SC%
2016 32 3.96 4.57 22.4% 7.7% 47.6% 32.7% 18.1%
2017 31 4.36 2.75 23.1% 9.5% 45.8% 29.5% 21.1%
L30 5 3.96 4.82 28.3% 10.8% 47.9% 37.0% 19.2%

Don’t overpay for Gonzalez today. In the last game of the regular season, I suspect that even Dusty Baker will be careful with his pitcher today. There’s no reason to go here.

Quick Breakdown: Gonzalez carries too much risk for my liking in a meaningless regular season finale.

Batter Grind Down

Pittsburgh

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. LH Pitching)

# Player Bats wOBA xwOBA ISO HC% BB% K% GB% FD Pos. FD Sal. DK Pos. DK Sal. FDRFT Pos. FDRFT Sal.
1 Chris Bostick RIGHT 0.139 0.000 50.0% 20.0% 40.0% 50.0% 2B $2,300 OF $2,400 N/A N/A
2 Starling Marte RIGHT 0.163 0.250 0.029 26.4% 5.4% 21.6% 49.0% OF $4,200 OF $3,800 N/A N/A
3 Andrew McCutchen RIGHT 0.454 0.406 0.358 41.2% 15.5% 16.2% 33.0% OF $3,600 OF $4,000 N/A N/A
4 David Freese RIGHT 0.357 0.351 0.114 34.2% 14.4% 21.6% 58.2% 3B $2,800 3B $2,800 N/A N/A
5 Jose Osuna RIGHT 0.318 0.294 0.196 31.0% 5.8% 12.6% 57.1% OF $2,000 1B/OF $3,300 N/A N/A
6 Gregory Polanco LEFT 0.261 0.241 0.078 18.8% 5.2% 21.9% 50.7% OF $2,500 OF $2,600 N/A N/A
7 Sean Rodriguez RIGHT 0.346 0.315 0.196 50.0% 16.1% 37.1% 22.2% 2B $2,100 3B/OF $2,700 N/A N/A
8 Elias Diaz RIGHT 0.295 0.313 0.116 34.3% 2.3% 18.2% 54.3% C $2,200 C $2,900 N/A N/A
9 Steven Brault LEFT 0.000 0.000 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 100.0% P $6,300 P $5,700 N/A N/A

I don’t mind targeting some right-handed hitters here. Gonzalez isn’t unhittable, and we might see the bullpen early. Andrew McCutchen has long been strong against lefties and has been playing better of late, so he is my favorite target.

Elite Plays – Andrew McCutchen

Secondary Plays – Starling Marte, Jose Osuna, David Freese

Stackability – YELLOW

Washington

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. LH Pitching)

# Player Bats wOBA xwOBA ISO HC% BB% K% GB% FD Pos. FD Sal. DK Pos. DK Sal. FDRFT Pos. FDRFT Sal.
1 Trea Turner RIGHT 0.264 0.262 0.066 25.3% 7.1% 16.2% 51.4% SS $4,200 SS $5,200 N/A N/A
2 Bryce Harper LEFT 0.340 0.283 0.137 30.5% 6.3% 28.6% 48.8% OF $3,800 OF $5,000 N/A N/A
3 Anthony Rendon RIGHT 0.456 0.420 0.327 38.6% 17.2% 10.7% 29.5% 3B $3,900 3B $4,600 N/A N/A
4 Daniel Murphy LEFT 0.352 0.337 0.195 39.2% 6.0% 19.5% 35.1% 2B $3,800 2B $4,700 N/A N/A
5 Ryan Zimmerman RIGHT 0.415 0.395 0.304 42.5% 8.6% 15.7% 45.3% 1B $3,400 1B $4,200 N/A N/A
6 Jayson Werth RIGHT 0.306 0.334 0.140 26.5% 17.3% 17.3% 29.4% OF $2,700 OF $3,500 N/A N/A
7 Matt Wieters SWITCH 0.288 0.250 0.145 17.0% 7.2% 28.9% 47.2% C $2,400 C $3,000 N/A N/A
8 Michael Taylor RIGHT 0.350 0.324 0.191 33.3% 5.3% 27.7% 47.6% OF $3,000 OF $3,900 N/A N/A
9 Gio Gonzalez LEFT 0.063 0.094 0.000 33.3% 0.0% 35.7% 37.5% P $9,000 P $10,500 N/A N/A

This situation is similar to what we see with Houston. If the starters are in the lineup to begin the game, I will avoid the whole unit as they are likely to be pinch hit for. If the reserves start the game, I like the RHBs as a potential cheap stack.

Elite Plays – TBA – If the reserves start, I like them as values.

Secondary Plays – TBA – depends on lineup.

Stackability – YELLOW


San Diego at San Francisco – 3:05 PM ET

San Diego San Francisco
Article Image Luis Perdomo Article Image Johnny Cueto
RIGHT RIGHT
Vegas Moneyline Vegas Over/Under
SF -135 8.0
Stats wOBA xwOBA HC% BB% K% GB% Stats wOBA xwOBA HC% BB% K% GB%
SP vs. Left (2016-17) 0.351 0.360 32.7% 10.1% 12.5% 57.9% SP vs. Left (2016-17) 0.343 0.369 39.0% 8.5% 21.3% 38.6%
SP vs. Right (2016-17) 0.334 0.302 31.1% 8.6% 20.3% 66.1% SP vs. Right (2016-17) 0.336 0.328 31.2% 8.5% 21.8% 41.1%

Pitcher Grind Down

Luis Perdomo
Article Image FanDuel DraftKings FantasyDraft
Salary: $6,600 Salary: $5,800 Salary:
Salary Rank: 13 of 29 Salary Rank: 21 of 29 Salary Rank: of 29
Stats Starts SIERA ERA K% BB% GB% HC% SC%
2016 20 4.04 5.71 15.9% 7.0% 59.0% 34.0% 16.7%
2017 28 4.48 4.65 16.6% 9.3% 62.0% 31.9% 18.3%
L30 5 5.21 3.81 15.1% 11.9% 59.1% 31.9% 23.1%

Perdomo is a relatively safe pitching option today, as he gets a lot of ground balls and is facing an awful Giants offense. However, he has been scuffling of late and now has a 4.47 SIERA on the year. He also has a below average strikeout rate.

Quick Breakdown: Given his recent struggles, Perdomo is a tough sell even against a bad lineup. He is in play as a SP #2 choice on multi-pitcher sites, but that’s about it.

Johnny Cueto
Article Image FanDuel DraftKings FantasyDraft
Salary: $8,400 Salary: $9,300 Salary:
Salary Rank: 4 of 29 Salary Rank: 3 of 29 Salary Rank: of 29
Stats Starts SIERA ERA K% BB% GB% HC% SC%
2016 32 3.59 2.79 22.5% 5.1% 50.2% 27.2% 19.4%
2017 24 4.47 4.43 21.5% 8.5% 39.8% 35.4% 16.2%
L30 5 4.13 3.71 26.5% 10.3% 42.6% 38.6% 14.3%

I haven’t played Cueto in about five months, but today would be a day that you could consider him. Even though his numbers aren’t great this year, he is still a reasonably talented pitcher with an average strikeout rate… and he’s facing the Padres. On today’s slate, that makes him one of the top options.

Quick Breakdown: Given the nature of today’s slate, you can consider Cueto as a pitching option in all formats.

Batter Grind Down

San Diego

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

# Player Bats wOBA xwOBA ISO HC% BB% K% GB% FD Pos. FD Sal. DK Pos. DK Sal. FDRFT Pos. FDRFT Sal.
1 Manuel Margot RIGHT 0.300 0.293 0.132 25.7% 5.7% 21.0% 39.3% OF $2,800 OF $3,300 N/A N/A
2 Carlos Asuaje LEFT 0.324 0.283 0.109 30.7% 8.8% 23.7% 37.3% 2B $2,200 2B $2,700 N/A N/A
3 Wil Myers RIGHT 0.332 0.308 0.222 37.8% 9.4% 27.5% 37.4% 1B $3,600 1B $3,600 N/A N/A
4 Yangervis Solarte SWITCH 0.336 0.307 0.196 32.8% 7.5% 12.5% 39.8% SS $2,700 2B/SS $3,300 N/A N/A
5 Cory Spangenberg LEFT 0.346 0.304 0.171 31.0% 7.8% 21.6% 45.9% 3B $2,500 3B/OF $3,000 N/A N/A
6 Hunter Renfroe RIGHT 0.267 0.264 0.187 33.2% 4.1% 33.3% 41.8% OF $2,800 OF $3,200 N/A N/A
7 Travis Jankowski LEFT 0.222 0.219 0.019 32.4% 11.5% 32.8% 63.3% OF $2,000 OF $2,400 N/A N/A
8 Austin Hedges RIGHT 0.286 0.258 0.208 32.6% 5.5% 29.6% 36.1% C $2,300 C $2,400 N/A N/A
9 Luis Perdomo RIGHT 0.152 0.154 0.156 13.0% 2.7% 35.1% 52.6% P $6,600 P $5,800 N/A N/A

Remember the mantra. #NeverPadres

Elite Plays – None

Secondary Plays – None

Stackability – RED

San Francisco

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

# Player Bats wOBA xwOBA ISO HC% BB% K% GB% FD Pos. FD Sal. DK Pos. DK Sal. FDRFT Pos. FDRFT Sal.
1 Hunter Pence RIGHT 0.291 0.279 0.120 27.7% 6.2% 21.9% 61.7% OF $3,700 OF $3,700 N/A N/A
2 Joe Panik LEFT 0.333 0.316 0.168 25.8% 8.3% 8.5% 41.0% 2B $3,100 2B $3,500 N/A N/A
3 Denard Span LEFT 0.342 0.329 0.186 27.4% 7.0% 12.3% 42.5% OF $3,200 OF $3,600 N/A N/A
4 Buster Posey RIGHT 0.337 0.346 0.107 29.6% 9.3% 11.9% 46.4% C $3,100 1B/C $3,700 N/A N/A
5 Brandon Crawford LEFT 0.305 0.316 0.159 33.6% 7.4% 21.3% 49.0% SS $2,800 SS $3,700 N/A N/A
6 Pablo Sandoval SWITCH 0.293 0.328 0.158 36.0% 6.8% 20.3% 47.3% 3B $2,900 3B $3,300 N/A N/A
7 Jarrett Parker LEFT 0.303 0.298 0.185 26.4% 6.5% 28.1% 49.5% OF $2,900 OF $3,100 N/A N/A
8 Nick Hundley RIGHT 0.248 0.287 0.140 32.8% 3.1% 28.2% 42.1% C $2,200 C $2,900 N/A N/A
9 Johnny Cueto RIGHT 0.087 0.136 0.000 14.3% 3.2% 29.0% 75.0% P $8,400 P $9,300 N/A N/A

There isn’t a lot of upside in this offense. If you go anywhere, target a lefty or two. Perdomo’s ground ball rate slides by about 10% against LHBs.

Elite Plays – Denard Span

Secondary Plays – Joe Panik, Jarrett Parker

Stackability – ORANGE


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About the Author

stlcardinals84
Justin Van Zuiden (stlcardinals84)

Justin Van Zuiden (aka stlcardinals84) is a longtime RotoGrinders contributor and show host. He’s appeared in numerous Live Finals, has logged countless 6-figure wins in a host of different sports (including 5 in PGA), and is a former DFS Writer of the Year Nominee by the Fantasy Sports Writers Association. You can find Justin’s ‘Covering The Bases’ series on weekends during the MLB season. He is also a main contributor of sports betting picks at our sister site, ScoresAndOdds, and is a co-host on the RotoGrinders Game Night show on SiriusXM. Follow Justin on Twitter – @stlcardinals84