MLB Grind Down: Sunday, October 1st
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The RotoGrinders MLB Grind Down will give you an in-depth analysis into the upcoming MLB schedule. This article will break down the numbers for every single game and give you analysis on which trends you can exploit. While matchups are a major factor in daily fantasy baseball, there are plenty of other factors to consider such as injuries, weather, and salaries.
The analysis should point you in the right direction, but it is still up to you to decipher the information and make your own selections. No sport has more variance than baseball. The best choice is not always the right choice but following the trends will win you money over time.
Note: As always, if you want to try a new DFS site, be sure to click through a RotoGrinders link and use our DraftKings promo code, FanDuel promo code, and FantasyDraft promo code to receive the best perks in the industry.
Stackability Rating System:
GREEN – A viable full stack in cash games and GPPs.
YELLOW – A viable mini-stack in cash games and full stack in GPPs.
ORANGE – A viable stack in large field GPPs.
RED – Not a recommended stack for cash games or GPPs.
Houston at Boston – 3:05 PM ET
Houston | Boston | ||||||||||||||
Collin McHugh | Hector Velazquez | ||||||||||||||
RIGHT | RIGHT | ||||||||||||||
Vegas Moneyline | Vegas Over/Under | ||||||||||||||
TBD | |||||||||||||||
Stats | wOBA | xwOBA | HC% | BB% | K% | GB% | Stats | wOBA | xwOBA | HC% | BB% | K% | GB% | ||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
SP vs. Left (2016-17) | 0.350 | 0.347 | 26.8% | 8.0% | 17.7% | 31.3% | SP vs. Left (2016-17) | 0.373 | 0.394 | 31.6% | 7.4% | 22.2% | 36.8% | ||
SP vs. Right (2016-17) | 0.308 | 0.307 | 33.7% | 7.5% | 25.4% | 33.7% | SP vs. Right (2016-17) | 0.284 | 0.287 | 28.2% | 4.1% | 16.3% | 51.3% |
Pitcher Grind Down
Collin McHugh | |||||||||
FanDuel | DraftKings | FantasyDraft | |||||||
Salary: | $7,800 | Salary: | $7,700 | Salary: | |||||
Salary Rank: | 7 of 29 | Salary Rank: | 7 of 29 | Salary Rank: | of 29 | ||||
Stats | Starts | SIERA | ERA | K% | BB% | GB% | HC% | SC% | |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
2016 | 33 | 4.02 | 4.34 | 22.2% | 6.8% | 41.3% | 30.2% | 20.0% | |
2017 | 11 | 4.47 | 3.45 | 21.9% | 7.7% | 32.5% | 30.4% | 10.1% | |
L30 | 4 | 5.08 | 3.06 | 18.1% | 8.4% | 34.5% | 37.3% | 15.3% |
This section is important today.
Welcome to the final day of the 2017 regular season. In a strange twist of events, not a single game today has any relevance toward the postseason. The final day of the season is usually a crapshoot, and it’s going to be even worse this year. I would honestly suggest that you don’t play any daily fantasy baseball today. Even if this is the only sport you play and you aren’t interested in football, this is a tough sell. Wait for the playoff games, as the DFS contests for that will be more exciting.
Teams that are in the playoffs will use this as a glorified exhibition. You saw some teams remove players early yesterday, and you will see the same today. The safest players to target are the ones from eliminated teams. Because of all the uncertainty surrounding lineups for today, this article is going to be brief. Again, i would suggest that you sit the day out, as there are going to be a lot of things on this slate that we can’t predict no matter how hard we try.
McHugh has had a solid season for the Astros, but there is no way I am taking a starting pitcher on any playoff-bound team today. it’s not happening.
Quick Breakdown: McHugh likely won’t pitch deep into this game and can be avoided in all formats.
Hector Velazquez | |||||||||
FanDuel | DraftKings | FantasyDraft | |||||||
Salary: | $5,500 | Salary: | $4,100 | Salary: | |||||
Salary Rank: | 23 of 29 | Salary Rank: | 30 of 29 | Salary Rank: | of 29 | ||||
Stats | Starts | SIERA | ERA | K% | BB% | GB% | HC% | SC% | |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
2017 | 2 | 4.13 | 3.66 | 18.4% | 5.3% | 46.6% | 29.3% | 12.1% | |
L30 | 0 | 1.88 | 0.00 | 28.6% | 0.0% | 60.0% | 0.0% | 20.0% |
Velasquez came up from the Mexican League and has been pitching well for the Red Sox, but he has a below average strikeout rate and doesn’t profile as a pitcher who will go deep into this game. He has been pitching out of the bullpen and hasn’t thrown more than an inning in a game since July.
Quick Breakdown: Velasquez likely won’t be long for this game regardless of how he is pitching. Pass.
Batter Grind Down
Houston
Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)
# | Player | Bats | wOBA | xwOBA | ISO | HC% | BB% | K% | GB% | FD Pos. | FD Sal. | DK Pos. | DK Sal. | FDRFT Pos. | FDRFT Sal. |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
1 | George Springer | RIGHT | 0.366 | 0.359 | 0.240 | 37.2% | 8.5% | 19.4% | 50.2% | OF | $3,700 | OF | $5,100 | N/A | N/A |
2 | Alex Bregman | RIGHT | 0.329 | 0.329 | 0.168 | 33.8% | 8.2% | 16.1% | 40.4% | 3B | $4,400 | 3B/SS | $4,100 | N/A | N/A |
3 | Jose Altuve | RIGHT | 0.408 | 0.360 | 0.204 | 29.3% | 8.8% | 12.9% | 46.0% | 2B | $4,300 | 2B | $5,200 | N/A | N/A |
4 | Carlos Correa | RIGHT | 0.371 | 0.377 | 0.232 | 38.2% | 10.6% | 21.0% | 47.0% | SS | $4,000 | SS | $5,300 | N/A | N/A |
5 | Evan Gattis | RIGHT | 0.342 | 0.326 | 0.196 | 32.8% | 5.8% | 15.7% | 35.1% | C | $2,800 | C | $3,700 | N/A | N/A |
6 | Marwin Gonzalez | SWITCH | 0.395 | 0.334 | 0.230 | 35.0% | 9.1% | 20.2% | 44.0% | OF | $3,500 | OF/SS | $4,800 | N/A | N/A |
7 | Yuli Gurriel | RIGHT | 0.361 | 0.335 | 0.205 | 33.3% | 3.1% | 9.7% | 45.1% | 1B | $3,500 | 1B | $3,700 | N/A | N/A |
8 | Cameron Maybin | RIGHT | 0.303 | 0.295 | 0.164 | 24.5% | 13.1% | 21.3% | 57.8% | OF | $2,800 | OF | $3,600 | N/A | N/A |
9 | Brian McCann | LEFT | 0.312 | 0.325 | 0.177 | 33.5% | 9.5% | 15.8% | 39.1% | C | $3,200 | C | $3,400 | N/A | N/A |
You can ignore that projected lineup above. You will see the reserves for Houston today. Keep an eye on the lineup here.
Elite Plays – TBA – If the reserves start, I like them as values.
Secondary Plays – TBA – depends on lineup.
Stackability – YELLOW
Boston
Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)
# | Player | Bats | wOBA | xwOBA | ISO | HC% | BB% | K% | GB% | FD Pos. | FD Sal. | DK Pos. | DK Sal. | FDRFT Pos. | FDRFT Sal. |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
1 | Xander Bogaerts | RIGHT | 0.316 | 0.279 | 0.133 | 31.7% | 8.3% | 18.5% | 48.5% | SS | $3,800 | SS | $4,600 | N/A | N/A |
2 | Dustin Pedroia | RIGHT | 0.322 | 0.311 | 0.094 | 25.1% | 8.9% | 10.5% | 49.7% | 2B | $2,900 | 2B | $3,400 | N/A | N/A |
3 | Andrew Benintendi | LEFT | 0.349 | 0.345 | 0.182 | 37.1% | 10.1% | 16.7% | 36.9% | OF | $3,600 | OF | $4,700 | N/A | N/A |
4 | Mookie Betts | RIGHT | 0.326 | 0.332 | 0.188 | 36.3% | 9.4% | 11.9% | 39.3% | OF | $4,400 | OF | $5,200 | N/A | N/A |
5 | Mitch Moreland | LEFT | 0.327 | 0.375 | 0.208 | 39.3% | 9.5% | 20.3% | 41.3% | 1B | $3,200 | 1B | $3,800 | N/A | N/A |
6 | Hanley Ramirez | RIGHT | 0.330 | 0.356 | 0.184 | 35.0% | 8.1% | 20.5% | 41.2% | 1B | $2,600 | 1B | $4,000 | N/A | N/A |
7 | Rafael Devers | LEFT | 0.314 | 0.289 | 0.197 | 35.8% | 6.5% | 22.0% | 49.6% | 3B | $3,300 | 3B | $4,000 | N/A | N/A |
8 | Sandy Leon | SWITCH | 0.269 | 0.266 | 0.120 | 31.2% | 7.9% | 25.7% | 35.0% | C | $2,400 | C | $2,800 | N/A | N/A |
9 | Rajai Davis | RIGHT | 0.272 | 0.258 | 0.110 | 24.2% | 7.0% | 24.0% | 46.5% | OF | $2,400 | OF | $3,600 | N/A | N/A |
You will see the reserves for Boston today, and McHugh isn’t a guy we want to pick on for as long as he is in there.
Elite Plays – None
Secondary Plays – None
Stackability – RED
NY Mets at Philadelphia – 3:05 PM ET
NY Mets | Philadelphia | ||||||||||||||
Noah Syndergaard | Nick Pivetta | ||||||||||||||
RIGHT | RIGHT | ||||||||||||||
Vegas Moneyline | Vegas Over/Under | ||||||||||||||
PHI-119 | 9.0 | ||||||||||||||
Stats | wOBA | xwOBA | HC% | BB% | K% | GB% | Stats | wOBA | xwOBA | HC% | BB% | K% | GB% | ||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
SP vs. Left (2016-17) | 0.221 | 0.273 | 37.1% | 3.4% | 35.6% | 40.0% | SP vs. Left (2016-17) | 0.308 | 0.294 | 29.2% | 10.2% | 25.1% | 43.4% | ||
SP vs. Right (2016-17) | 0.289 | 0.244 | 23.4% | 0.0% | 19.0% | 69.6% | SP vs. Right (2016-17) | 0.414 | 0.363 | 42.1% | 8.4% | 22.4% | 44.3% |
Pitcher Grind Down
Noah Syndergaard | |||||||||
FanDuel | DraftKings | FantasyDraft | |||||||
Salary: | $6,000 | Salary: | $7,500 | Salary: | |||||
Salary Rank: | 21 of 29 | Salary Rank: | 9 of 29 | Salary Rank: | of 29 | ||||
Stats | Starts | SIERA | ERA | K% | BB% | GB% | HC% | SC% | |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
2016 | 30 | 2.95 | 2.60 | 29.3% | 5.8% | 51.2% | 28.1% | 21.0% | |
2017 | 6 | 2.69 | 3.18 | 27.4% | 1.7% | 56.8% | 29.3% | 15.9% | |
L30 | 1 | 5.26 | 0.00 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 33.3% | 100.0% | 0.0% |
This is an end of season tune up (which I really don’t understand). Syndergaard only threw one inning in his last start and won’t go too much longer than that today.
Quick Breakdown: He won’t be long for this game, so avoid Syndergaard in all formats.
Nick Pivetta | |||||||||
FanDuel | DraftKings | FantasyDraft | |||||||
Salary: | $6,700 | Salary: | $6,900 | Salary: | |||||
Salary Rank: | 10 of 29 | Salary Rank: | 13 of 29 | Salary Rank: | of 29 | ||||
Stats | Starts | SIERA | ERA | K% | BB% | GB% | HC% | SC% | |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
2017 | 25 | 4.29 | 6.26 | 23.7% | 9.3% | 43.9% | 35.9% | 15.8% | |
L30 | 5 | 3.57 | 5.14 | 23.1% | 6.0% | 56.8% | 28.9% | 13.3% |
Thanks to the nature of today’s slate, I don’t mind Nick Pivetta today. He is not nearly as bad as his ERA would indicate, as his SIERA is a full two runs better than his 6.26 ERA. He also has a healthy 24% strikeout rate and gets to face a poor Mets lineup.
Quick Breakdown: There isn’t a lot of goodness to be had on this slate, so give Pivetta a look at pitcher.
Batter Grind Down
NY Mets
Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)
# | Player | Bats | wOBA | xwOBA | ISO | HC% | BB% | K% | GB% | FD Pos. | FD Sal. | DK Pos. | DK Sal. | FDRFT Pos. | FDRFT Sal. |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
1 | Norichika Aoki | LEFT | 0.327 | 0.296 | 0.133 | 26.1% | 7.1% | 11.9% | 54.7% | OF | $2,900 | OF | $3,400 | N/A | N/A |
2 | Jose Reyes | SWITCH | 0.296 | 0.291 | 0.142 | 26.2% | 8.9% | 13.6% | 37.0% | SS | $4,100 | 3B/SS | $4,200 | N/A | N/A |
3 | Asdrubal Cabrera | SWITCH | 0.312 | 0.331 | 0.171 | 37.1% | 10.1% | 16.4% | 41.0% | 3B | $3,100 | 2B/SS | $3,600 | N/A | N/A |
4 | Travis d’Arnaud | RIGHT | 0.288 | 0.304 | 0.194 | 33.3% | 4.7% | 14.9% | 38.8% | C | $2,800 | C | $3,500 | N/A | N/A |
5 | Brandon Nimmo | LEFT | 0.387 | 0.361 | 0.192 | 36.1% | 16.2% | 26.6% | 44.2% | OF | $3,100 | OF | $3,700 | N/A | N/A |
6 | Amed Rosario | RIGHT | 0.277 | 0.226 | 0.128 | 23.5% | 1.7% | 29.8% | 49.4% | SS | $2,800 | SS | $2,900 | N/A | N/A |
7 | Dominic Smith | LEFT | 0.291 | 0.317 | 0.217 | 36.8% | 4.4% | 25.0% | 49.5% | 1B | $2,900 | 1B | $3,000 | N/A | N/A |
8 | Juan Lagares | RIGHT | 0.298 | 0.263 | 0.119 | 31.1% | 5.0% | 20.6% | 52.8% | OF | $2,800 | OF | $3,200 | N/A | N/A |
9 | Noah Syndergaard | RIGHT | 0.383 | 0.000 | 75.0% | 30.0% | 30.0% | 50.0% | P | $6,000 | P | $7,500 | N/A | N/A |
Part of the reason why I like Pivetta is that he is a reverse splits pitcher, so the Mets’ lefties don’t necessarily match up all the great against him. If you go anywhere with bats, RHBs are the preferred plays, as they have posted a .415 wOBA against Pivetta this year.
Elite Plays – Travis D’Arnaud
Secondary Plays – Jose Reyes, Asdrubal Cabrera
Stackability – YELLOW / ORANGE
Philadelphia
Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)
# | Player | Bats | wOBA | xwOBA | ISO | HC% | BB% | K% | GB% | FD Pos. | FD Sal. | DK Pos. | DK Sal. | FDRFT Pos. | FDRFT Sal. |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
1 | Cesar Hernandez | SWITCH | 0.339 | 0.303 | 0.101 | 20.8% | 10.4% | 20.4% | 49.8% | 2B | $3,500 | 2B | $3,400 | N/A | N/A |
2 | Freddy Galvis | SWITCH | 0.303 | 0.291 | 0.141 | 27.9% | 7.7% | 19.1% | 35.5% | SS | $2,700 | SS | $2,900 | N/A | N/A |
3 | Nick Williams | LEFT | 0.345 | 0.326 | 0.202 | 39.0% | 5.9% | 28.2% | 48.1% | OF | $3,200 | OF | $3,000 | WR | $6,000 |
4 | Rhys Hoskins | RIGHT | 0.437 | 0.383 | 0.364 | 46.6% | 14.2% | 22.0% | 29.5% | 1B | $3,800 | 1B/OF | $3,600 | N/A | N/A |
5 | Aaron Altherr | RIGHT | 0.374 | 0.327 | 0.244 | 37.1% | 6.5% | 29.1% | 41.2% | OF | $3,300 | OF | $3,600 | N/A | N/A |
6 | Odubel Herrera | LEFT | 0.326 | 0.303 | 0.169 | 27.8% | 6.7% | 21.9% | 41.2% | OF | $3,100 | OF | $3,300 | N/A | N/A |
7 | Maikel Franco | RIGHT | 0.293 | 0.306 | 0.165 | 29.5% | 6.5% | 15.2% | 43.8% | 3B | $2,900 | 3B | $2,600 | N/A | N/A |
8 | Jorge Alfaro | RIGHT | 0.409 | 0.319 | 0.209 | 21.3% | 0.0% | 28.2% | 55.3% | C | $3,200 | C | $2,700 | N/A | N/A |
9 | Nick Pivetta | RIGHT | 0.101 | 0.125 | 0.000 | 11.8% | 0.0% | 41.4% | 53.8% | P | $6,700 | P | $6,900 | N/A | N/A |
With this being a bullpen game for the Mets, you could choose a hitter or two here, even though Syndergaard is not a guy we often pick on. He is only expected to throw 25 pitches today.
Elite Plays – Rhys Hoskins
Secondary Plays – Cesar Hernandez
Stackability – YELLOW
Oakland at Texas – 3:05 PM ET
Oakland | Texas | ||||||||||||||
Daniel Mengden | Cole Hamels | ||||||||||||||
RIGHT | LEFT | ||||||||||||||
Vegas Moneyline | Vegas Over/Under | ||||||||||||||
TEX-140 | 10.0 | ||||||||||||||
Stats | wOBA | xwOBA | HC% | BB% | K% | GB% | Stats | wOBA | xwOBA | HC% | BB% | K% | GB% | ||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
SP vs. Left (2016-17) | 0.350 | 0.344 | 25.0% | 2.8% | 19.4% | 33.9% | SP vs. Left (2016-17) | 0.215 | 0.284 | 28.9% | 4.7% | 16.5% | 60.8% | ||
SP vs. Right (2016-17) | 0.241 | 0.363 | 27.1% | 8.3% | 9.7% | 41.4% | SP vs. Right (2016-17) | 0.321 | 0.336 | 37.5% | 9.8% | 16.7% | 44.6% |
Pitcher Grind Down
Daniel Mengden | |||||||||
FanDuel | DraftKings | FantasyDraft | |||||||
Salary: | $7,400 | Salary: | $8,500 | Salary: | |||||
Salary Rank: | 8 of 29 | Salary Rank: | 4 of 29 | Salary Rank: | of 29 | ||||
Stats | Starts | SIERA | ERA | K% | BB% | GB% | HC% | SC% | |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
2016 | 14 | 4.50 | 6.50 | 21.4% | 9.9% | 39.5% | 29.5% | 18.8% | |
2017 | 6 | 5.06 | 3.75 | 14.6% | 5.6% | 37.7% | 26.1% | 16.5% | |
L30 | 4 | 4.56 | 1.93 | 17.3% | 4.8% | 42.5% | 24.7% | 16.1% |
Mengden is a below average pitcher with a 5.05 SIERA and a 14.6% strikeout rate this season. He has to face the Rangers in one of the most hitter-friendly parks in the league.
Quick Breakdown: No thanks.
Cole Hamels | |||||||||
FanDuel | DraftKings | FantasyDraft | |||||||
Salary: | $8,000 | Salary: | $7,900 | Salary: | |||||
Salary Rank: | 6 of 29 | Salary Rank: | 6 of 29 | Salary Rank: | of 29 | ||||
Stats | Starts | SIERA | ERA | K% | BB% | GB% | HC% | SC% | |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
2016 | 32 | 3.99 | 3.32 | 23.6% | 9.1% | 49.6% | 32.0% | 20.4% | |
2017 | 23 | 4.95 | 4.10 | 16.7% | 8.7% | 48.3% | 35.6% | 14.0% | |
L30 | 6 | 4.72 | 5.09 | 21.6% | 10.5% | 41.6% | 36.3% | 13.7% |
Thanks to the nature of the slate today, I expect Hamels to be somewhat popular. Don’t fall for the name brand trap. Hamels has a 4.94 SIERA and a 16.7% strikeout rate for the season. In other words, he isn’t much better than Mengden on the other side of this game. He gave up six runs in 4 1/3 innings the last time he faced Oakland, too.
Quick Breakdown: Hamels can safely be avoided in all formats. Don’t fall for the trap!
Batter Grind Down
Oakland
Projected Lineup (Splits vs. LH Pitching)
# | Player | Bats | wOBA | xwOBA | ISO | HC% | BB% | K% | GB% | FD Pos. | FD Sal. | DK Pos. | DK Sal. | FDRFT Pos. | FDRFT Sal. |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
1 | Marcus Semien | RIGHT | 0.314 | 0.305 | 0.159 | 40.6% | 11.1% | 24.2% | 38.1% | SS | $3,600 | SS | $3,800 | N/A | N/A |
2 | Matt Chapman | RIGHT | 0.327 | 0.341 | 0.213 | 38.3% | 10.6% | 34.1% | 25.5% | 3B | $2,700 | 3B | $3,700 | N/A | N/A |
3 | Jed Lowrie | SWITCH | 0.323 | 0.356 | 0.136 | 29.3% | 12.5% | 18.8% | 39.4% | 2B | $3,900 | 2B | $4,000 | N/A | N/A |
4 | Khris Davis | RIGHT | 0.315 | 0.386 | 0.224 | 50.7% | 15.6% | 29.8% | 41.6% | OF | $4,200 | OF | $4,600 | N/A | N/A |
5 | Ryon Healy | RIGHT | 0.370 | 0.327 | 0.215 | 31.7% | 4.4% | 21.3% | 39.6% | 1B | $3,000 | 1B/3B | $3,600 | N/A | N/A |
6 | Renato Nunez | RIGHT | 0.125 | 0.000 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 42.9% | 25.0% | OF | $2,300 | 3B | $2,200 | N/A | N/A | |
7 | Josh Phegley | RIGHT | 0.263 | 0.292 | 0.143 | 28.3% | 4.5% | 16.4% | 30.2% | C | $2,000 | C | $2,100 | N/A | N/A |
8 | Mark Canha | RIGHT | 0.249 | 0.213 | 0.136 | 24.4% | 2.9% | 30.0% | 28.9% | OF | $2,200 | OF | $2,700 | N/A | N/A |
9 | Jake Smolinski | RIGHT | 0.438 | 0.000 | 20.0% | 0.0% | 16.7% | 60.0% | OF | $2,000 | OF | $2,500 | N/A | N/A |
This will be a fine game for offense, and we have limited pinch hit risk with both teams eliminated from the playoffs. RHBs have hammered Hamels (say that ten times fast) this year, and Oakland will roll a RH-heavy lineup out there.
Elite Plays – Khris Davis, Matt Chapman, Marcus Semien
Secondary Plays – Ryon Healy, Jed Lowrie, Reynato Nunez
Stackability – YELLOW / GREEN
Texas
Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)
# | Player | Bats | wOBA | xwOBA | ISO | HC% | BB% | K% | GB% | FD Pos. | FD Sal. | DK Pos. | DK Sal. | FDRFT Pos. | FDRFT Sal. |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
1 | Delino DeShields | RIGHT | 0.313 | 0.253 | 0.074 | 23.4% | 9.1% | 22.8% | 50.6% | OF | $2,900 | OF | $3,600 | N/A | N/A |
2 | Shin-soo Choo | LEFT | 0.333 | 0.366 | 0.183 | 40.1% | 11.1% | 22.7% | 45.4% | OF | $3,200 | OF | $4,000 | N/A | N/A |
3 | Elvis Andrus | RIGHT | 0.341 | 0.301 | 0.164 | 29.2% | 5.4% | 14.9% | 49.9% | SS | $3,400 | SS | $3,900 | N/A | N/A |
4 | Nomar Mazara | LEFT | 0.334 | 0.336 | 0.198 | 35.0% | 10.2% | 19.7% | 42.2% | OF | $2,900 | OF | $4,400 | N/A | N/A |
5 | Joey Gallo | LEFT | 0.357 | 0.367 | 0.337 | 45.9% | 14.1% | 36.0% | 28.9% | 1B | $2,600 | 1B/3B | $3,500 | N/A | N/A |
6 | Rougned Odor | LEFT | 0.297 | 0.305 | 0.226 | 38.8% | 5.7% | 25.0% | 38.2% | 2B | $2,100 | 2B | $3,900 | N/A | N/A |
7 | Mike Napoli | RIGHT | 0.301 | 0.312 | 0.223 | 35.2% | 9.9% | 32.6% | 35.1% | 1B | $2,700 | 1B | $3,000 | N/A | N/A |
8 | Robinson Chirinos | RIGHT | 0.334 | 0.319 | 0.234 | 33.8% | 10.1% | 26.9% | 43.5% | C | $2,500 | C | $2,700 | N/A | N/A |
9 | Drew Robinson | LEFT | 0.307 | 0.302 | 0.222 | 31.9% | 12.0% | 37.0% | 46.8% | 2B | $2,400 | 2B/OF | $2,400 | N/A | N/A |
Texas is facing a bad RHP at home and will not be going to the playoffs, making them one of the safest offenses to target on today’s slate.
Elite Plays – Nomar Mazara, Joey Gallo, Elvis Andrus
Secondary Plays – Shin-Soo Choo, Robinson Chirinos, Rougned Odor
Stackability – GREEN
Pittsburgh at Washington – 3:05 PM ET
Pittsburgh | Washington | ||||||||||||||
Steven Brault | Gio Gonzalez | ||||||||||||||
LEFT | LEFT | ||||||||||||||
Vegas Moneyline | Vegas Over/Under | ||||||||||||||
WAS-160 | 8.5 | ||||||||||||||
Stats | wOBA | xwOBA | HC% | BB% | K% | GB% | Stats | wOBA | xwOBA | HC% | BB% | K% | GB% | ||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
SP vs. Left (2016-17) | 0.261 | 0.266 | 14.3% | 8.3% | 11.1% | 48.1% | SP vs. Left (2016-17) | 0.231 | 0.263 | 23.4% | 7.8% | 22.8% | 51.3% | ||
SP vs. Right (2016-17) | 0.324 | 0.335 | 36.8% | 6.4% | 13.6% | 39.5% | SP vs. Right (2016-17) | 0.290 | 0.297 | 31.3% | 9.9% | 23.2% | 44.2% |
Pitcher Grind Down
Steven Brault | |||||||||
FanDuel | DraftKings | FantasyDraft | |||||||
Salary: | $6,300 | Salary: | $5,700 | Salary: | |||||
Salary Rank: | 16 of 29 | Salary Rank: | 22 of 29 | Salary Rank: | of 29 | ||||
Stats | Starts | SIERA | ERA | K% | BB% | GB% | HC% | SC% | |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
2016 | 7 | 4.86 | 4.86 | 17.5% | 10.2% | 45.1% | 25.4% | 17.8% | |
2017 | 3 | 5.15 | 3.86 | 13.0% | 6.9% | 41.6% | 31.3% | 21.7% | |
L30 | 3 | 5.08 | 4.05 | 13.1% | 4.8% | 40.3% | 29.9% | 25.4% |
His surface ERA isn’t that bad, but Brault owns a SIERA over 5.00 and a 13% strikeout rate. That won’t get the job done no matter the opponent.
Quick Breakdown: Brault can safely be avoided in all formats.
Gio Gonzalez | |||||||||
FanDuel | DraftKings | FantasyDraft | |||||||
Salary: | $9,000 | Salary: | $10,500 | Salary: | |||||
Salary Rank: | 2 of 29 | Salary Rank: | 2 of 29 | Salary Rank: | of 29 | ||||
Stats | Starts | SIERA | ERA | K% | BB% | GB% | HC% | SC% | |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
2016 | 32 | 3.96 | 4.57 | 22.4% | 7.7% | 47.6% | 32.7% | 18.1% | |
2017 | 31 | 4.36 | 2.75 | 23.1% | 9.5% | 45.8% | 29.5% | 21.1% | |
L30 | 5 | 3.96 | 4.82 | 28.3% | 10.8% | 47.9% | 37.0% | 19.2% |
Don’t overpay for Gonzalez today. In the last game of the regular season, I suspect that even Dusty Baker will be careful with his pitcher today. There’s no reason to go here.
Quick Breakdown: Gonzalez carries too much risk for my liking in a meaningless regular season finale.
Batter Grind Down
Pittsburgh
Projected Lineup (Splits vs. LH Pitching)
# | Player | Bats | wOBA | xwOBA | ISO | HC% | BB% | K% | GB% | FD Pos. | FD Sal. | DK Pos. | DK Sal. | FDRFT Pos. | FDRFT Sal. |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
1 | Chris Bostick | RIGHT | 0.139 | 0.000 | 50.0% | 20.0% | 40.0% | 50.0% | 2B | $2,300 | OF | $2,400 | N/A | N/A | |
2 | Starling Marte | RIGHT | 0.163 | 0.250 | 0.029 | 26.4% | 5.4% | 21.6% | 49.0% | OF | $4,200 | OF | $3,800 | N/A | N/A |
3 | Andrew McCutchen | RIGHT | 0.454 | 0.406 | 0.358 | 41.2% | 15.5% | 16.2% | 33.0% | OF | $3,600 | OF | $4,000 | N/A | N/A |
4 | David Freese | RIGHT | 0.357 | 0.351 | 0.114 | 34.2% | 14.4% | 21.6% | 58.2% | 3B | $2,800 | 3B | $2,800 | N/A | N/A |
5 | Jose Osuna | RIGHT | 0.318 | 0.294 | 0.196 | 31.0% | 5.8% | 12.6% | 57.1% | OF | $2,000 | 1B/OF | $3,300 | N/A | N/A |
6 | Gregory Polanco | LEFT | 0.261 | 0.241 | 0.078 | 18.8% | 5.2% | 21.9% | 50.7% | OF | $2,500 | OF | $2,600 | N/A | N/A |
7 | Sean Rodriguez | RIGHT | 0.346 | 0.315 | 0.196 | 50.0% | 16.1% | 37.1% | 22.2% | 2B | $2,100 | 3B/OF | $2,700 | N/A | N/A |
8 | Elias Diaz | RIGHT | 0.295 | 0.313 | 0.116 | 34.3% | 2.3% | 18.2% | 54.3% | C | $2,200 | C | $2,900 | N/A | N/A |
9 | Steven Brault | LEFT | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 100.0% | P | $6,300 | P | $5,700 | N/A | N/A |
I don’t mind targeting some right-handed hitters here. Gonzalez isn’t unhittable, and we might see the bullpen early. Andrew McCutchen has long been strong against lefties and has been playing better of late, so he is my favorite target.
Elite Plays – Andrew McCutchen
Secondary Plays – Starling Marte, Jose Osuna, David Freese
Stackability – YELLOW
Washington
Projected Lineup (Splits vs. LH Pitching)
# | Player | Bats | wOBA | xwOBA | ISO | HC% | BB% | K% | GB% | FD Pos. | FD Sal. | DK Pos. | DK Sal. | FDRFT Pos. | FDRFT Sal. |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
1 | Trea Turner | RIGHT | 0.264 | 0.262 | 0.066 | 25.3% | 7.1% | 16.2% | 51.4% | SS | $4,200 | SS | $5,200 | N/A | N/A |
2 | Bryce Harper | LEFT | 0.340 | 0.283 | 0.137 | 30.5% | 6.3% | 28.6% | 48.8% | OF | $3,800 | OF | $5,000 | N/A | N/A |
3 | Anthony Rendon | RIGHT | 0.456 | 0.420 | 0.327 | 38.6% | 17.2% | 10.7% | 29.5% | 3B | $3,900 | 3B | $4,600 | N/A | N/A |
4 | Daniel Murphy | LEFT | 0.352 | 0.337 | 0.195 | 39.2% | 6.0% | 19.5% | 35.1% | 2B | $3,800 | 2B | $4,700 | N/A | N/A |
5 | Ryan Zimmerman | RIGHT | 0.415 | 0.395 | 0.304 | 42.5% | 8.6% | 15.7% | 45.3% | 1B | $3,400 | 1B | $4,200 | N/A | N/A |
6 | Jayson Werth | RIGHT | 0.306 | 0.334 | 0.140 | 26.5% | 17.3% | 17.3% | 29.4% | OF | $2,700 | OF | $3,500 | N/A | N/A |
7 | Matt Wieters | SWITCH | 0.288 | 0.250 | 0.145 | 17.0% | 7.2% | 28.9% | 47.2% | C | $2,400 | C | $3,000 | N/A | N/A |
8 | Michael Taylor | RIGHT | 0.350 | 0.324 | 0.191 | 33.3% | 5.3% | 27.7% | 47.6% | OF | $3,000 | OF | $3,900 | N/A | N/A |
9 | Gio Gonzalez | LEFT | 0.063 | 0.094 | 0.000 | 33.3% | 0.0% | 35.7% | 37.5% | P | $9,000 | P | $10,500 | N/A | N/A |
This situation is similar to what we see with Houston. If the starters are in the lineup to begin the game, I will avoid the whole unit as they are likely to be pinch hit for. If the reserves start the game, I like the RHBs as a potential cheap stack.
Elite Plays – TBA – If the reserves start, I like them as values.
Secondary Plays – TBA – depends on lineup.
Stackability – YELLOW
San Diego at San Francisco – 3:05 PM ET
San Diego | San Francisco | ||||||||||||||
Luis Perdomo | Johnny Cueto | ||||||||||||||
RIGHT | RIGHT | ||||||||||||||
Vegas Moneyline | Vegas Over/Under | ||||||||||||||
SF -135 | 8.0 | ||||||||||||||
Stats | wOBA | xwOBA | HC% | BB% | K% | GB% | Stats | wOBA | xwOBA | HC% | BB% | K% | GB% | ||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
SP vs. Left (2016-17) | 0.351 | 0.360 | 32.7% | 10.1% | 12.5% | 57.9% | SP vs. Left (2016-17) | 0.343 | 0.369 | 39.0% | 8.5% | 21.3% | 38.6% | ||
SP vs. Right (2016-17) | 0.334 | 0.302 | 31.1% | 8.6% | 20.3% | 66.1% | SP vs. Right (2016-17) | 0.336 | 0.328 | 31.2% | 8.5% | 21.8% | 41.1% |
Pitcher Grind Down
Luis Perdomo | |||||||||
FanDuel | DraftKings | FantasyDraft | |||||||
Salary: | $6,600 | Salary: | $5,800 | Salary: | |||||
Salary Rank: | 13 of 29 | Salary Rank: | 21 of 29 | Salary Rank: | of 29 | ||||
Stats | Starts | SIERA | ERA | K% | BB% | GB% | HC% | SC% | |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
2016 | 20 | 4.04 | 5.71 | 15.9% | 7.0% | 59.0% | 34.0% | 16.7% | |
2017 | 28 | 4.48 | 4.65 | 16.6% | 9.3% | 62.0% | 31.9% | 18.3% | |
L30 | 5 | 5.21 | 3.81 | 15.1% | 11.9% | 59.1% | 31.9% | 23.1% |
Perdomo is a relatively safe pitching option today, as he gets a lot of ground balls and is facing an awful Giants offense. However, he has been scuffling of late and now has a 4.47 SIERA on the year. He also has a below average strikeout rate.
Quick Breakdown: Given his recent struggles, Perdomo is a tough sell even against a bad lineup. He is in play as a SP #2 choice on multi-pitcher sites, but that’s about it.
Johnny Cueto | |||||||||
FanDuel | DraftKings | FantasyDraft | |||||||
Salary: | $8,400 | Salary: | $9,300 | Salary: | |||||
Salary Rank: | 4 of 29 | Salary Rank: | 3 of 29 | Salary Rank: | of 29 | ||||
Stats | Starts | SIERA | ERA | K% | BB% | GB% | HC% | SC% | |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
2016 | 32 | 3.59 | 2.79 | 22.5% | 5.1% | 50.2% | 27.2% | 19.4% | |
2017 | 24 | 4.47 | 4.43 | 21.5% | 8.5% | 39.8% | 35.4% | 16.2% | |
L30 | 5 | 4.13 | 3.71 | 26.5% | 10.3% | 42.6% | 38.6% | 14.3% |
I haven’t played Cueto in about five months, but today would be a day that you could consider him. Even though his numbers aren’t great this year, he is still a reasonably talented pitcher with an average strikeout rate… and he’s facing the Padres. On today’s slate, that makes him one of the top options.
Quick Breakdown: Given the nature of today’s slate, you can consider Cueto as a pitching option in all formats.
Batter Grind Down
San Diego
Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)
# | Player | Bats | wOBA | xwOBA | ISO | HC% | BB% | K% | GB% | FD Pos. | FD Sal. | DK Pos. | DK Sal. | FDRFT Pos. | FDRFT Sal. |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
1 | Manuel Margot | RIGHT | 0.300 | 0.293 | 0.132 | 25.7% | 5.7% | 21.0% | 39.3% | OF | $2,800 | OF | $3,300 | N/A | N/A |
2 | Carlos Asuaje | LEFT | 0.324 | 0.283 | 0.109 | 30.7% | 8.8% | 23.7% | 37.3% | 2B | $2,200 | 2B | $2,700 | N/A | N/A |
3 | Wil Myers | RIGHT | 0.332 | 0.308 | 0.222 | 37.8% | 9.4% | 27.5% | 37.4% | 1B | $3,600 | 1B | $3,600 | N/A | N/A |
4 | Yangervis Solarte | SWITCH | 0.336 | 0.307 | 0.196 | 32.8% | 7.5% | 12.5% | 39.8% | SS | $2,700 | 2B/SS | $3,300 | N/A | N/A |
5 | Cory Spangenberg | LEFT | 0.346 | 0.304 | 0.171 | 31.0% | 7.8% | 21.6% | 45.9% | 3B | $2,500 | 3B/OF | $3,000 | N/A | N/A |
6 | Hunter Renfroe | RIGHT | 0.267 | 0.264 | 0.187 | 33.2% | 4.1% | 33.3% | 41.8% | OF | $2,800 | OF | $3,200 | N/A | N/A |
7 | Travis Jankowski | LEFT | 0.222 | 0.219 | 0.019 | 32.4% | 11.5% | 32.8% | 63.3% | OF | $2,000 | OF | $2,400 | N/A | N/A |
8 | Austin Hedges | RIGHT | 0.286 | 0.258 | 0.208 | 32.6% | 5.5% | 29.6% | 36.1% | C | $2,300 | C | $2,400 | N/A | N/A |
9 | Luis Perdomo | RIGHT | 0.152 | 0.154 | 0.156 | 13.0% | 2.7% | 35.1% | 52.6% | P | $6,600 | P | $5,800 | N/A | N/A |
Remember the mantra. #NeverPadres
Elite Plays – None
Secondary Plays – None
Stackability – RED
San Francisco
Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)
# | Player | Bats | wOBA | xwOBA | ISO | HC% | BB% | K% | GB% | FD Pos. | FD Sal. | DK Pos. | DK Sal. | FDRFT Pos. | FDRFT Sal. |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
1 | Hunter Pence | RIGHT | 0.291 | 0.279 | 0.120 | 27.7% | 6.2% | 21.9% | 61.7% | OF | $3,700 | OF | $3,700 | N/A | N/A |
2 | Joe Panik | LEFT | 0.333 | 0.316 | 0.168 | 25.8% | 8.3% | 8.5% | 41.0% | 2B | $3,100 | 2B | $3,500 | N/A | N/A |
3 | Denard Span | LEFT | 0.342 | 0.329 | 0.186 | 27.4% | 7.0% | 12.3% | 42.5% | OF | $3,200 | OF | $3,600 | N/A | N/A |
4 | Buster Posey | RIGHT | 0.337 | 0.346 | 0.107 | 29.6% | 9.3% | 11.9% | 46.4% | C | $3,100 | 1B/C | $3,700 | N/A | N/A |
5 | Brandon Crawford | LEFT | 0.305 | 0.316 | 0.159 | 33.6% | 7.4% | 21.3% | 49.0% | SS | $2,800 | SS | $3,700 | N/A | N/A |
6 | Pablo Sandoval | SWITCH | 0.293 | 0.328 | 0.158 | 36.0% | 6.8% | 20.3% | 47.3% | 3B | $2,900 | 3B | $3,300 | N/A | N/A |
7 | Jarrett Parker | LEFT | 0.303 | 0.298 | 0.185 | 26.4% | 6.5% | 28.1% | 49.5% | OF | $2,900 | OF | $3,100 | N/A | N/A |
8 | Nick Hundley | RIGHT | 0.248 | 0.287 | 0.140 | 32.8% | 3.1% | 28.2% | 42.1% | C | $2,200 | C | $2,900 | N/A | N/A |
9 | Johnny Cueto | RIGHT | 0.087 | 0.136 | 0.000 | 14.3% | 3.2% | 29.0% | 75.0% | P | $8,400 | P | $9,300 | N/A | N/A |
There isn’t a lot of upside in this offense. If you go anywhere, target a lefty or two. Perdomo’s ground ball rate slides by about 10% against LHBs.