MLB Grind Down: Thursday, April 13th
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The RotoGrinders MLB Grind Down will give you an in-depth analysis into the upcoming MLB schedule. This article will break down the numbers for every single game and give you analysis on which trends you can exploit. While matchups are a major factor in daily fantasy baseball, there are plenty of other factors to consider such as injuries, weather, and salaries.
The analysis should point you in the right direction, but it is still up to you to decipher the information and make your own selections. No sport has more variance than baseball. The best choice is not always the right choice but following the trends will win you money over time.
Note: As always, if you want to try a new DFS site, be sure to click through a RotoGrinders link and use our DraftKings promo code and FanDuel promo code to receive the best perks in the industry.
Stackability Rating System:
GREEN – A viable full stack in cash games and GPPs.
YELLOW – A viable mini-stack in cash games and full stack in GPPs.
ORANGE – A viable stack in large field GPPs.
RED – Not a recommended stack for cash games or GPPs.
Minnesota at Detroit – 1:10 PM ET
| Minnesota | Detroit | ||||||||||
 | Phil Hughes |  | Jordan Zimmermann | ||||||||
| RIGHT | RIGHT | ||||||||||
| Vegas Moneyline | Vegas Over/Under | ||||||||||
| DET-142 | 8.5 | ||||||||||
| Stats | wOBA | HC% | BB% | K% | GB% | Stats | wOBA | HC% | BB% | K% | GB% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SP vs. Left (2016-17) | 0.405 | 35.1% | 9.4% | 13.5% | 38.4% | SP vs. Left (2016-17) | 0.301 | 32.8% | 5.3% | 15.4% | 44.9% |
| SP vs. Right (2016-17) | 0.321 | 39.2% | 2.2% | 12.9% | 32.1% | SP vs. Right (2016-17) | 0.369 | 24.7% | 6.1% | 13.8% | 40.6% |
Pitcher Grind Down
| Phil Hughes | |||||||||
 | FanDuel | DraftKings | FantasyDraft | ||||||
| Salary: | $6,100 | Salary: | $6,100 | Salary: | $12,000 | ||||
| Salary Rank: | 21 of 22 | Salary Rank: | 17 of 22 | Salary Rank: | 16 of 22 | ||||
| Stats | Starts | SIERA | ERA | K% | BB% | GB% | FB% | HC% | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2016-17 | 12 | 5.03 | 5.54 | 13.1% | 4.6% | 34.1% | 42.8% | 37.9% | |
Hughes may have fared well in his first start of the season, but he was facing a bad offense (White Sox) and he only struck out three batters. We have to trust the larger sample size here, as he has a SIERA above 5.00 with a strikeout rate of only 13.1% in his last 12 starts. Hughes is a fly-ball pitcher that gives up a lot of hard contact and a lot of home runs. He is an easy fade on the road against the Tigers.
Quick Breakdown: Easy fade.
| Jordan Zimmermann | |||||||||
 | FanDuel | DraftKings | FantasyDraft | ||||||
| Salary: | $8,100 | Salary: | $7,300 | Salary: | $14,400 | ||||
| Salary Rank: | 3 of 22 | Salary Rank: | 9 of 22 | Salary Rank: | 9 of 22 | ||||
| Stats | Starts | SIERA | ERA | K% | BB% | GB% | FB% | HC% | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2016-17 | 19 | 4.80 | 4.69 | 14.6% | 5.7% | 42.7% | 39.1% | 28.6% | |
Zimmermann has not fared well since coming to the American League. He left a perfect situation with the Nationals and his numbers have certainly paid the price. Since the start of last season, he has a 4.80 SIERA with a strikeout rate of only 14.6%. He has manage to keep his hard contact rate low, but that doesn’t really matter when he has one of the lowest strikeout rates of any pitcher in baseball. The Twins aren’t a bad matchup by any means, but Zimmermann doesn’t have enough strikeout upside to warrant consideration.
Quick Breakdown: The offenses in this game are in a better spot than the pitchers.
Batter Grind Down
Minnesota
If you look strictly at the wOBA allowed by Jordan Zimmermann in the last two seasons, you would think that he has reverse splits. However, during that stretch, he gave up a much higher hard contact rate to left-handed hitters. With such a low strikeout rate, it is safe to target batters from both sides of the plate against Zimmermann. Brian Dozier, Max Kepler, and Miguel Sano all have a 33%+ hard contact rate against right-handed pitching.
Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)
| # | Player | Bats | wOBA | ISO | HC% | BB% | K% | GB% | FD Pos. | FD Sal. | DK Pos. | DK Sal. | FDRFT Pos. | FDRFT Sal. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Brian Dozier | RIGHT | 0.362 | 0.257 | 33.0% | 8.8% | 19.6% | 38.4% | 2B | $3,600 | 2B | $4,400 | 2B | $8,400 |
| 2 | Max Kepler | LEFT | 0.336 | 0.213 | 34.2% | 10.3% | 19.1% | 45.7% | OF | $2,700 | OF | $3,700 | RF | $7,200 |
| 3 | Miguel Sano | RIGHT | 0.331 | 0.218 | 40.1% | 10.4% | 36.6% | 33.3% | 3B | $3,400 | 3B/OF | $4,000 | IF/OF | $7,800 |
| 4 | Joe Mauer | LEFT | 0.340 | 0.134 | 31.7% | 15.2% | 15.4% | 48.6% | 1B | $2,800 | 1B | $3,600 | 1B | $7,200 |
| 5 | Jorge Polanco | SWITCH | 0.315 | 0.120 | 21.4% | 7.4% | 13.4% | 34.0% | SS | $2,500 | 2B/3B | $3,300 | SS | $6,400 |
| 6 | Jason Castro | LEFT | 0.333 | 0.202 | 36.9% | 13.5% | 31.9% | 43.1% | C | $3,000 | C | $2,700 | C | $5,400 |
| 7 | Byron Buxton | RIGHT | 0.292 | 0.192 | 24.1% | 5.4% | 37.7% | 37.2% | OF | $2,300 | OF | $3,400 | CF | $6,800 |
| 8 | Eddie Rosario | LEFT | 0.315 | 0.187 | 34.5% | 3.6% | 25.0% | 44.7% | OF | $2,600 | OF | $3,400 | LF | $6,800 |
| 9 | Eduardo Escobar | SWITCH | 0.284 | 0.101 | 26.0% | 5.7% | 17.0% | 38.1% | SS | $2,700 | SS | $2,600 | SS | $5,100 |
Elite Plays – Brian Dozier
Secondary Plays – Max Kepler, Miguel Sano, Jason Castro
Stackability – YELLOW
Detroit
After the Rockies and Blue Jays combined for zero runs yesterday, I’m a bit hesitant to play big favorites at home. However, we have to deal with the volatility of baseball; no matter the matchup, anything can happen in a single game. The Tigers find themselves in a great matchup against Phil Hughes, who is a fly-ball pitcher that has struggled with both left and right-handed hitters. Miguel Cabrera has been in a slump to start the season, but this matchup could help. In his career, Cabrera is 19 for 44 with six home runs against Hughes.
Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)
| # | Player | Bats | wOBA | ISO | HC% | BB% | K% | GB% | FD Pos. | FD Sal. | DK Pos. | DK Sal. | FDRFT Pos. | FDRFT Sal. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Ian Kinsler | RIGHT | 0.349 | 0.188 | 34.0% | 6.3% | 16.7% | 34.0% | 2B | $3,400 | 2B | $4,300 | 2B | $8,400 |
| 2 | Nick Castellanos | RIGHT | 0.378 | 0.217 | 36.8% | 7.2% | 23.7% | 31.6% | 3B | $2,900 | 3B | $3,800 | 3B | $7,500 |
| 3 | Miguel Cabrera | RIGHT | 0.396 | 0.253 | 40.6% | 9.9% | 16.7% | 41.2% | 1B | $3,800 | 1B | $4,900 | 1B | $9,600 |
| 4 | Victor Martinez | SWITCH | 0.347 | 0.192 | 40.2% | 8.3% | 15.1% | 36.4% | C | $2,600 | 1B | $3,700 | 1B | $7,200 |
| 5 | Justin Upton | RIGHT | 0.333 | 0.223 | 38.0% | 8.4% | 28.1% | 39.7% | OF | $3,000 | OF | $4,200 | LF | $8,100 |
| 6 | Tyler Collins | LEFT | 0.346 | 0.198 | 31.0% | 7.8% | 25.8% | 34.5% | OF | $2,200 | OF | $2,800 | CF | $5,400 |
| 7 | Alex Avila | LEFT | 0.326 | 0.167 | 35.4% | 17.5% | 37.7% | 48.8% | C | $2,300 | C | $3,000 | C | $6,000 |
| 8 | Andrew Romine | LEFT | 0.279 | 0.104 | 24.3% | 6.6% | 22.5% | 48.5% | SS | $2,000 | 3B/SS | $2,300 | SS | $4,500 |
| 9 | Jose Iglesias | RIGHT | 0.266 | 0.055 | 13.9% | 5.1% | 10.7% | 56.6% | SS | $2,100 | 3B/SS | $2,700 | SS | $5,200 |
Elite Plays – Ian Kinsler, Nick Castellanos, Miguel Cabrera
Secondary Plays – Victor Martinez, Justin Upton, Tyler Collins
Stackability – GREEN
Pittsburgh at Boston – 2:05 PM ET
| Pittsburgh | Boston | ||||||||||
 | Chad Kuhl |  | Eduardo Rodriguez | ||||||||
| RIGHT | LEFT | ||||||||||
| Vegas Moneyline | Vegas Over/Under | ||||||||||
| BOS-142 | 9.5 | ||||||||||
| Stats | wOBA | HC% | BB% | K% | GB% | Stats | wOBA | HC% | BB% | K% | GB% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SP vs. Left (2016-17) | 0.364 | 35.7% | 8.6% | 15.9% | 40.4% | SP vs. Left (2016-17) | 0.318 | 19.7% | 9.3% | 25.8% | 41.0% |
| SP vs. Right (2016-17) | 0.302 | 30.4% | 7.4% | 19.4% | 47.2% | SP vs. Right (2016-17) | 0.321 | 30.8% | 8.9% | 21.0% | 29.2% |
Pitcher Grind Down
| Chad Kuhl | |||||||||
 | FanDuel | DraftKings | FantasyDraft | ||||||
| Salary: | $6,900 | Salary: | $5,500 | Salary: | $10,800 | ||||
| Salary Rank: | 15 of 22 | Salary Rank: | 21 of 22 | Salary Rank: | 19 of 22 | ||||
| Stats | Starts | SIERA | ERA | K% | BB% | GB% | FB% | HC% | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2016-17 | 15 | 4.62 | 4.16 | 17.8% | 8.0% | 44.0% | 36.2% | 33.3% | |
This is a make-up game for the one that was rained out in the first week of the season. Kuhl would have preferred to face a different opponent in a different ballpark, but will take the mound against the Red Sox in Fenway Park. Kuhl is a low strikeout rate pitcher that gives up a lot of hard contact to left-handed hitters. He also sees a negative ballpark shift and doesn’t get to face the opposing pitcher like he normally does in the National League. As a large underdogs on the road, Kuhl is an easy fade.
Quick Breakdown: There are better options for cash games and tournaments.
| Eduardo Rodriguez | |||||||||
 | FanDuel | DraftKings | FantasyDraft | ||||||
| Salary: | $7,600 | Salary: | $6,600 | Salary: | $13,200 | ||||
| Salary Rank: | 8 of 22 | Salary Rank: | 13 of 22 | Salary Rank: | 12 of 22 | ||||
| Stats | Starts | SIERA | ERA | K% | BB% | GB% | FB% | HC% | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2016-17 | 21 | 4.44 | 4.82 | 22.0% | 9.0% | 31.4% | 45.8% | 28.8% | |
Rodriguez may not have a low SIERA or a low walk rate, but he has an above-average strikeout rate and a hard contact rate of 28.8%. Those are numbers that we can work with, especially against a team that doesn’t fare well against left-handed pitching. Rodriguez has some blow-up potential, but the strikeout upside is there and he comes into the game as a sizable favorite at home. It sounds strange, but Rodriguez is my second favorite pitcher in the early-only slate.
Batter Grind Down
Pittsburgh
Eduardo Rodriguez may be a fly-ball pitcher, but he doesn’t give up a lot of hard contact. Even against right-handed hitters, he has only allowed a .321 wOBA with a hard contact rate of 31%. I’m not head over heels about the Pirates’ offense here, but they do see a massive ballpark upgrade. Jordy Mercer, Andrew McCutchen, David Freese, and Francisco Cervelli all have good numbers against lefties in their careers.
Projected Lineup (Splits vs. LH Pitching)
| # | Player | Bats | wOBA | ISO | HC% | BB% | K% | GB% | FD Pos. | FD Sal. | DK Pos. | DK Sal. | FDRFT Pos. | FDRFT Sal. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Jordy Mercer | RIGHT | 0.348 | 0.171 | 26.4% | 13.0% | 12.2% | 40.0% | SS | $2,100 | SS | $3,500 | SS | $6,900 |
| 2 | Starling Marte | RIGHT | 0.310 | 0.098 | 33.3% | 4.0% | 30.3% | 50.0% | OF | $3,800 | OF | $4,900 | CF | $9,600 |
| 3 | Andrew McCutchen | RIGHT | 0.307 | 0.179 | 35.6% | 12.5% | 19.5% | 37.9% | OF | $3,500 | OF | $4,800 | RF | $9,300 |
| 4 | Gregory Polanco | LEFT | 0.319 | 0.212 | 31.9% | 8.7% | 28.7% | 45.8% | OF | $3,200 | OF | $4,800 | LF | $9,200 |
| 5 | David Freese | RIGHT | 0.410 | 0.202 | 46.2% | 13.0% | 26.9% | 58.5% | 3B | $2,500 | 1B/3B | $3,500 | 3B | $6,800 |
| 6 | Francisco Cervelli | RIGHT | 0.377 | 0.018 | 41.3% | 13.6% | 15.2% | 57.8% | C | $2,600 | C | $3,700 | C | $7,200 |
| 7 | Josh Bell | SWITCH | 0.223 | 0.000 | 15.8% | 12.0% | 12.0% | 47.4% | 1B | $2,400 | OF | $3,600 | IF/OF | $7,200 |
| 8 | Adam Frazier | LEFT | 0.370 | 0.000 | 21.7% | 3.6% | 14.3% | 60.9% | SS | $2,200 | 2B/OF | $3,500 | IF/OF | $6,900 |
| 9 | 2.015 | 3.000 | 100.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | P | $6,800 | P | $8,800 | SS | $5,400 |
Elite Plays – None
Secondary Plays – Jordy Mercer, Andrew McCutchen, David Freese, Francisco Cervelli
Stackability – ORANGE
Boston
The Red Sox tried to claw their way back last night against the Orioles, but it’s hard to overcome a nine-run deficit. They’ll look to bounce back against Chad Kuhl, who is a low strikeout pitcher that may be outside of his comfort zone in an American League ballpark. Kuhl is significantly worse against lefties than he is against righties, allowing a .364 wOBA and a 36% hard contact rate. Andrew Benintendi and Mitch Moreland are the core targets here and you can finish the stack with a few right-handed hitters.
Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)
| # | Player | Bats | wOBA | ISO | HC% | BB% | K% | GB% | FD Pos. | FD Sal. | DK Pos. | DK Sal. | FDRFT Pos. | FDRFT Sal. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Dustin Pedroia | RIGHT | 0.356 | 0.132 | 33.4% | 7.5% | 10.1% | 51.4% | 2B | $3,200 | 2B | $4,500 | 2B | $8,800 |
| 2 | Andrew Benintendi | LEFT | 0.404 | 0.247 | 36.0% | 9.0% | 14.0% | 34.7% | OF | $3,200 | OF | $4,200 | LF | $8,000 |
| 3 | Mookie Betts | RIGHT | 0.389 | 0.207 | 33.1% | 7.1% | 11.1% | 42.2% | OF | $4,200 | OF | $5,500 | RF | $10,800 |
| 4 | Hanley Ramirez | RIGHT | 0.341 | 0.182 | 37.0% | 9.5% | 19.6% | 50.4% | 1B | $3,400 | 1B/OF | $4,700 | IF/OF | $9,300 |
| 5 | Mitch Moreland | LEFT | 0.298 | 0.183 | 37.2% | 7.2% | 23.2% | 40.0% | 1B | $2,700 | 1B | $3,500 | 1B | $6,800 |
| 6 | Xander Bogaerts | RIGHT | 0.338 | 0.144 | 29.5% | 6.9% | 17.2% | 46.4% | SS | $3,300 | 3B/SS | $4,800 | SS | $9,200 |
| 7 | Pablo Sandoval | SWITCH | 0.246 | 0.211 | 45.5% | 5.0% | 40.0% | 27.3% | 3B | $2,500 | 3B | $3,900 | 3B | $7,800 |
| 8 | Chris Young | RIGHT | 0.330 | 0.194 | 39.6% | 9.0% | 21.3% | 31.1% | P | $5,500 | P | $4,300 | P | $8,400 |
| 9 | Christian Vazquez | RIGHT | 0.245 | 0.072 | 30.2% | 3.4% | 21.8% | 62.9% | C | $2,500 | C | $2,900 | C | $5,700 |
Elite Plays – Hanley Ramirez (FD), Andrew Benintendi, Mitch Moreland
Secondary Plays – Hanley Ramirez (DK), Dustin Pedroia, Mookie Betts, Xander Bogaerts
Stackability – GREEN
LA Dodgers at Chicago Cubs – 2:20 PM ET
| LA Dodgers | Chicago Cubs | ||||||||||
 | Hyun-Jin Ryu |  | Brett Anderson | ||||||||
| LEFT | LEFT | ||||||||||
| Vegas Moneyline | Vegas Over/Under | ||||||||||
| CHC-135 | 8.5 | ||||||||||
| Stats | wOBA | HC% | BB% | K% | GB% | Stats | wOBA | HC% | BB% | K% | GB% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SP vs. Left (2016-17) | 0.378 | 30.0% | 7.7% | 15.4% | 55.6% | SP vs. Left (2016-17) | 0.504 | 28.6% | 4.4% | 4.4% | 57.1% |
| SP vs. Right (2016-17) | 0.429 | 43.5% | 6.3% | 21.9% | 40.9% | SP vs. Right (2016-17) | 0.404 | 38.0% | 6.5% | 12.9% | 46.9% |
Pitcher Grind Down
| Hyun-Jin Ryu | |||||||||
 | FanDuel | DraftKings | FantasyDraft | ||||||
| Salary: | $6,800 | Salary: | $9,000 | Salary: | $17,600 | ||||
| Salary Rank: | 18 of 22 | Salary Rank: | 4 of 22 | Salary Rank: | 4 of 22 | ||||
| Stats | Starts | SIERA | ERA | K% | BB% | GB% | FB% | HC% | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2016-17 | 2 | 3.92 | 7.71 | 20.0% | 6.7% | 45.2% | 29.0% | 39.4% | |
Ryu defied the odds by pitching well in Coors Field in the first start of the season. That used to be an amazing feat, although rookie pitchers have been accomplishing that task in the last couple of games. He is a pitcher to keep our eye on moving forward, but he only threw 77 pitches against the Rockies. To further complicate matters, he has to face the Cubs on the road in Wrigley Field. We should take a wait and see approach with Ryu.
Quick Breakdown: The risk seems greater than the reward.
| Brett Anderson | |||||||||
 | FanDuel | DraftKings | FantasyDraft | ||||||
| Salary: | $6,900 | Salary: | $7,000 | Salary: | $13,800 | ||||
| Salary Rank: | 15 of 22 | Salary Rank: | 10 of 22 | Salary Rank: | 11 of 22 | ||||
| Stats | Starts | SIERA | ERA | K% | BB% | GB% | FB% | HC% | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2016-17 | 4 | 4.60 | 8.47 | 10.6% | 5.9% | 50.0% | 20.0% | 35.2% | |
Anderson will be making his second start with the Cubs and he gets to face his former team in the Dodgers. He has struggled to stay healthy throughout his career, but has shown decent strikeout upside at time. The Dodgers are a lot better against righties than they are against lefties, but they brought in a few right-handed hitters in the offseason to help with that. This game has a fairly high run total and I’m a little concerned about Anderson’s ability to pitch deep into this game.
Quick Breakdown: Viable GPP play, especially as an SP2.
Batter Grind Down
LA Dodgers
The Dodgers were one of the worst offenses in baseball against southpaws last season and decided to bring in Logan Forsythe and Franklin Gutierrez to help. Our natural inclination is to target the right-handed hitters from this lineup, but Brett Anderson has had reverse splits in his career, allowing a .329 wOBA to left-handed hitters. Corey Seager is an elite tournament play, while the righties in this lineup are best suited as secondary options.
Projected Lineup (Splits vs. LH Pitching)
| # | Player | Bats | wOBA | ISO | HC% | BB% | K% | GB% | FD Pos. | FD Sal. | DK Pos. | DK Sal. | FDRFT Pos. | FDRFT Sal. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Logan Forsythe | RIGHT | 0.331 | 0.180 | 39.8% | 6.8% | 22.6% | 41.9% | 2B | $3,300 | 2B | $3,900 | 2B | $7,600 |
| 2 | Corey Seager | LEFT | 0.306 | 0.162 | 39.3% | 6.8% | 24.8% | 47.0% | SS | $3,800 | SS | $4,600 | SS | $9,000 |
| 3 | Justin Turner | RIGHT | 0.292 | 0.133 | 37.6% | 11.1% | 16.4% | 38.9% | 3B | $4,100 | 3B | $3,800 | 3B | $7,600 |
| 4 | Franklin Gutierrez | RIGHT | 0.374 | 0.227 | 52.3% | 12.0% | 28.4% | 50.0% | OF | $2,800 | OF | $3,600 | RF | $7,200 |
| 5 | Yasiel Puig | RIGHT | 0.321 | 0.200 | 30.3% | 6.5% | 20.3% | 45.5% | OF | $3,200 | OF | $4,000 | RF | $7,800 |
| 6 | Adrian Gonzalez | LEFT | 0.272 | 0.064 | 23.6% | 5.3% | 16.0% | 52.1% | 1B | $3,200 | 1B | $4,000 | 1B | $7,800 |
| 7 | Yasmani Grandal | SWITCH | 0.337 | 0.188 | 32.8% | 17.9% | 20.8% | 54.0% | C | $3,400 | C | $3,800 | C | $7,500 |
| 8 | Joc Pederson | LEFT | 0.222 | 0.088 | 26.7% | 13.6% | 30.9% | 50.0% | OF | $3,000 | OF | $3,900 | CF | $7,800 |
| 9 | Hyun-Jin Ryu | LEFT | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 33.3% | 100.0% | P | $6,800 | P | $9,000 | P | $17,600 |
Elite Plays – Corey Seager
Secondary Plays – Logan Forsythe, Franklin Gutierrez, Yasiel Puig, Yasmani Grandal
Stackability – YELLOW
Chicago Cubs
In his career, Hyun-Jin Ryu has been a ground ball pitcher with a strikeout rate of around 20%. That doesn’t exactly bode well for the Cubs, but we’ve seen their offense show up in worse matchups this season. They have one of the higher implied run totals in the early slate and have seven hitters in their projected lineup with at least a .350 wOBA against left-handed pitching. A Cubs’ stack is certainly viable here.
Projected Lineup (Splits vs. LH Pitching)
| # | Player | Bats | wOBA | ISO | HC% | BB% | K% | GB% | FD Pos. | FD Sal. | DK Pos. | DK Sal. | FDRFT Pos. | FDRFT Sal. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Kyle Schwarber | LEFT | 0.478 | 0.571 | 40.0% | 0.0% | 28.6% | 0.0% | OF | $3,500 | C/OF | $4,500 | IF/OF | $8,800 |
| 2 | Kris Bryant | RIGHT | 0.445 | 0.329 | 40.0% | 13.0% | 19.3% | 30.4% | 3B | $4,300 | 3B/OF | $5,100 | IF/OF | $9,900 |
| 3 | Anthony Rizzo | LEFT | 0.363 | 0.199 | 24.7% | 9.0% | 12.8% | 42.9% | 1B | $4,000 | 1B | $5,300 | 1B | $10,400 |
| 4 | Ben Zobrist | SWITCH | 0.370 | 0.152 | 30.8% | 12.7% | 17.9% | 56.0% | 2B | $3,000 | 2B/OF | $4,200 | IF/OF | $8,100 |
| 5 | Addison Russell | RIGHT | 0.352 | 0.246 | 30.8% | 12.7% | 22.9% | 34.0% | SS | $2,700 | 2B/SS | $3,700 | SS | $7,200 |
| 6 | Willson Contreras | RIGHT | 0.374 | 0.192 | 28.6% | 4.8% | 18.1% | 54.0% | C | $3,100 | C/OF | $3,900 | IF/OF | $7,600 |
| 7 | Jason Heyward | LEFT | 0.265 | 0.078 | 23.9% | 11.1% | 18.5% | 49.1% | OF | $2,800 | OF | $3,400 | RF | $6,600 |
| 8 | Javier Baez | RIGHT | 0.355 | 0.159 | 31.7% | 7.9% | 18.6% | 41.2% | 2B | $2,600 | 2B/3B | $3,800 | 3B | $7,600 |
| 9 | Brett Anderson | LEFT | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 100.0% | 0.0% | P | $6,900 | P | $7,000 | P | $13,800 |
Elite Plays – Kris Bryant, Ben Zobrist, Addison Russell
Secondary Plays – Kyle Schwarber, Anthony Rizzo, Willson Contreras
Stackability – YELLOW / GREEN
Texas at LA Angels – 3:37 PM ET
| Texas | LA Angels | ||||||||||
 | Yu Darvish |  | Ricky Nolasco | ||||||||
| RIGHT | RIGHT | ||||||||||
| Vegas Moneyline | Vegas Over/Under | ||||||||||
| TEX-122 | 7.5 | ||||||||||
| Stats | wOBA | HC% | BB% | K% | GB% | Stats | wOBA | HC% | BB% | K% | GB% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SP vs. Left (2016-17) | 0.270 | 34.6% | 10.3% | 30.0% | 45.9% | SP vs. Left (2016-17) | 0.308 | 34.0% | 6.4% | 13.8% | 38.1% |
| SP vs. Right (2016-17) | 0.286 | 30.5% | 6.6% | 30.3% | 35.8% | SP vs. Right (2016-17) | 0.328 | 34.4% | 4.7% | 20.5% | 45.7% |
Pitcher Grind Down
| Yu Darvish | |||||||||
 | FanDuel | DraftKings | FantasyDraft | ||||||
| Salary: | $10,400 | Salary: | $11,500 | Salary: | $22,400 | ||||
| Salary Rank: | 2 of 22 | Salary Rank: | 2 of 22 | Salary Rank: | 2 of 22 | ||||
| Stats | Starts | SIERA | ERA | K% | BB% | GB% | FB% | HC% | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2016-17 | 19 | 3.29 | 3.43 | 30.2% | 8.4% | 40.5% | 38.7% | 32.4% | |
Darvish hasn’t had his best stuff so far this season, but he’s faced two low strikeout offenses in the A’s and the Indians. He draws a similar matchup against the Angels, who have one of the lowest strikeout rates of any team in the majors. When Darvish is locked in, it really doesn’t matter who he is facing, but his command has been off in his first two starts (eight walks). Even with the subpar form, he is easily the top pitching option in this early slate and can be targeted in both cash games and tournaments.
Quick Breakdown: This isn’t a perfect spot for Darvish, but he’s the best pitching option in the slate.
| Ricky Nolasco | |||||||||
 | FanDuel | DraftKings | FantasyDraft | ||||||
| Salary: | $7,300 | Salary: | $7,800 | Salary: | $15,200 | ||||
| Salary Rank: | 12 of 22 | Salary Rank: | 7 of 22 | Salary Rank: | 7 of 22 | ||||
| Stats | Starts | SIERA | ERA | K% | BB% | GB% | FB% | HC% | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2016-17 | 34 | 4.42 | 4.39 | 17.5% | 5.4% | 42.2% | 38.8% | 34.2% | |
Nolasco is playing in a pitcher-friendly ballpark, but he doesn’t fit the mold of the type of pitcher we are looking to target in DFS. He has a below-average strikeout rate, a high fly-ball rate, and he gives up hard contact to both left and right-handed hitters. The Rangers have some high strikeout batters in their lineup, but that’s not enough of a reason to target Nolasco.
Quick Breakdown: Avoid in all formats.
Batter Grind Down
Texas
The Rangers see a negative ballpark shift playing in Los Angeles, but draw a favorable matchup against Ricky Nolasco. In the last two seasons, he has allowed a 34% hard contact rate to both left and right-handed hitters. The three through six batters in the Rangers’ lineup all have an ISO at least .185 against right-handed pitching. A mini-stack is certainly viable here, even in this ballpark.
Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)
| # | Player | Bats | wOBA | ISO | HC% | BB% | K% | GB% | FD Pos. | FD Sal. | DK Pos. | DK Sal. | FDRFT Pos. | FDRFT Sal. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Carlos Gomez | RIGHT | 0.307 | 0.179 | 30.5% | 8.7% | 28.6% | 41.5% | OF | $2,900 | OF | $3,700 | CF | $7,200 |
| 2 | Shin-soo Choo | LEFT | 0.293 | 0.101 | 41.1% | 12.1% | 23.7% | 45.7% | OF | $3,100 | OF | $3,900 | RF | $7,800 |
| 3 | Nomar Mazara | LEFT | 0.349 | 0.195 | 31.3% | 7.0% | 18.3% | 46.1% | OF | $3,300 | OF | $3,500 | RF | $6,800 |
| 4 | Mike Napoli | RIGHT | 0.335 | 0.241 | 35.4% | 10.9% | 30.2% | 36.2% | 1B | $3,000 | 1B | $3,800 | 1B | $7,500 |
| 5 | Rougned Odor | LEFT | 0.351 | 0.260 | 35.2% | 2.5% | 21.9% | 39.4% | 2B | $3,500 | 2B | $4,000 | 2B | $7,600 |
| 6 | Jonathan Lucroy | RIGHT | 0.363 | 0.188 | 33.3% | 7.5% | 16.5% | 39.9% | C | $3,200 | C | $4,000 | C | $7,800 |
| 7 | Joey Gallo | LEFT | 0.218 | 0.158 | 33.3% | 15.6% | 57.8% | 16.7% | 3B | $2,600 | 3B/OF | $3,400 | IF/OF | $6,600 |
| 8 | Ryan Rua | RIGHT | 0.290 | 0.125 | 31.9% | 7.5% | 31.4% | 52.7% | OF | $2,000 | 1B/OF | $2,700 | IF/OF | $5,200 |
| 9 | Elvis Andrus | RIGHT | 0.339 | 0.145 | 27.1% | 8.1% | 11.8% | 46.6% | SS | $3,100 | SS | $3,600 | SS | $7,200 |
Elite Plays – Nomar Mazara, Rougned Odor
Secondary Plays – Carlos Gomez, Mike Napoli, Jonathan Lucroy
Stackability – YELLOW
LA Angels
Yu Darvish is an elite strikeout pitcher that can dominate an opposing lineup at any time. The easy answer is to fade the Angels completely, but Kole Calhoun and Mike Trout are both intriguing leverage plays off of Darvish in tournaments. Between the two of them, they have six combined home runs against Darvish.
Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)
| # | Player | Bats | wOBA | ISO | HC% | BB% | K% | GB% | FD Pos. | FD Sal. | DK Pos. | DK Sal. | FDRFT Pos. | FDRFT Sal. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Yunel Escobar | RIGHT | 0.324 | 0.075 | 28.1% | 6.2% | 11.8% | 57.8% | 3B | $3,200 | 3B | $3,000 | 3B | $6,000 |
| 2 | Kole Calhoun | LEFT | 0.339 | 0.166 | 35.8% | 9.9% | 17.4% | 38.8% | OF | $3,000 | OF | $3,700 | RF | $7,200 |
| 3 | Mike Trout | RIGHT | 0.418 | 0.244 | 39.5% | 16.7% | 21.1% | 40.4% | OF | $5,100 | OF | $5,300 | CF | $10,200 |
| 4 | Albert Pujols | RIGHT | 0.320 | 0.168 | 34.8% | 8.3% | 11.9% | 44.0% | 1B | $3,000 | 1B | $4,000 | 1B | $7,800 |
| 5 | Andrelton Simmons | RIGHT | 0.298 | 0.075 | 24.3% | 5.5% | 8.6% | 54.3% | SS | $2,500 | SS | $2,900 | SS | $5,700 |
| 6 | C.J. Cron | RIGHT | 0.348 | 0.193 | 32.5% | 5.3% | 17.4% | 40.7% | 1B | $2,600 | 1B | $3,500 | 1B | $6,800 |
| 7 | Ben Revere | LEFT | 0.246 | 0.081 | 22.5% | 4.8% | 8.6% | 56.5% | OF | $2,000 | OF | $3,000 | CF | $6,000 |
| 8 | Danny Espinosa | SWITCH | 0.295 | 0.144 | 31.0% | 10.0% | 28.5% | 39.1% | 2B | $2,900 | 2B | $2,900 | SS | $5,600 |
| 9 | Carlos Perez | RIGHT | 0.246 | 0.122 | 24.6% | 3.8% | 17.6% | 42.1% | C | $2,100 | C | $2,300 | C | $4,400 |
Elite Plays – None
Secondary Plays – Kole Calhoun, Mike Trout
Stackability – RED
Chicago White Sox at Cleveland – 6:10 PM ET
| Chicago White Sox | Cleveland | ||||||||||
 | Miguel Gonzalez |  | Josh Tomlin | ||||||||
| RIGHT | RIGHT | ||||||||||
| Vegas Moneyline | Vegas Over/Under | ||||||||||
| CLE-200 | 8.5 | ||||||||||
| Stats | wOBA | HC% | BB% | K% | GB% | Stats | wOBA | HC% | BB% | K% | GB% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SP vs. Left (2016-17) | 0.299 | 29.0% | 8.3% | 16.6% | 41.9% | SP vs. Left (2016-17) | 0.290 | 36.9% | 2.3% | 15.9% | 47.6% |
| SP vs. Right (2016-17) | 0.305 | 28.0% | 3.9% | 17.5% | 39.8% | SP vs. Right (2016-17) | 0.356 | 32.1% | 3.2% | 17.1% | 42.1% |
Pitcher Grind Down
| Miguel Gonzalez | |||||||||
 | FanDuel | DraftKings | FantasyDraft | ||||||
| Salary: | $6,900 | Salary: | $5,800 | Salary: | |||||
| Salary Rank: | 15 of 22 | Salary Rank: | 18 of 22 | Salary Rank: | of 22 | ||||
| Stats | Starts | SIERA | ERA | K% | BB% | GB% | FB% | HC% | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2016-17 | 24 | 4.56 | 3.70 | 17.0% | 6.2% | 40.9% | 38.0% | 28.5% | |
Gonzalez will pop every now and then, but is a pitcher that we rarely look to in DFS. He has a low strikeout rate, he plays on a bad White Sox team, and his peripheral stats look a low worse than his ERA. He is the largest underdog in the slate and has to face a potent Indians’ offense on the road.
Quick Breakdown: Avoid in all formats.
| Josh Tomlin | |||||||||
 | FanDuel | DraftKings | FantasyDraft | ||||||
| Salary: | $7,700 | Salary: | $6,200 | Salary: | |||||
| Salary Rank: | 7 of 22 | Salary Rank: | 15 of 22 | Salary Rank: | of 22 | ||||
| Stats | Starts | SIERA | ERA | K% | BB% | GB% | FB% | HC% | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2016 | 29 | 4.24 | 4.40 | 16.3% | 2.8% | 43.8% | 35.2% | 33.9% | |
There are two ways we can look at this matchup. We can expect Josh Tomlin to improve against a bad White Sox offense, or we can expect the White Sox to step it up in an exploitable matchup against Josh Tomlin. I generally don’t like to target low strikeout pitchers just because they have a favorable matchup, but I might have to make an exception here. Chicago has one of the worst offenses in the American League and Tomlin is a massive favorite at home. Even if he gives up a couple of runs, strikes out five batters, and picks up the win, that should be good enough in this slate.
Quick Breakdown: Playable in all formats, preferably as an SP2.
Batter Grind Down
Chicago White Sox
A case can certainly be made for the White Sox today, especially in tournaments. Josh Tomlin has a below-average strikeout rate and allows a hard contact of at least 32% to both left and right-handed hitters. Melky Cabrera, Jose Abreu, and Todd Frazier are all intriguing one-off targets in tournaments.
Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)
| # | Player | Bats | wOBA | ISO | HC% | BB% | K% | GB% | FD Pos. | FD Sal. | DK Pos. | DK Sal. | FDRFT Pos. | FDRFT Sal. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Tyler Saladino | RIGHT | 0.303 | 0.131 | 22.8% | 4.5% | 19.8% | 49.7% | SS | $3,000 | 3B/SS | $4,200 | ||
| 2 | Tim Anderson | RIGHT | 0.303 | 0.148 | 30.6% | 3.1% | 27.4% | 51.3% | SS | $2,500 | SS | $4,500 | ||
| 3 | Melky Cabrera | SWITCH | 0.340 | 0.157 | 29.1% | 7.7% | 9.8% | 43.5% | OF | $2,700 | OF | $4,800 | ||
| 4 | Jose Abreu | RIGHT | 0.347 | 0.157 | 31.0% | 6.0% | 17.6% | 46.1% | 1B | $2,900 | 1B | $5,100 | ||
| 5 | Todd Frazier | RIGHT | 0.318 | 0.224 | 31.2% | 9.3% | 23.0% | 37.3% | 3B | $3,500 | 1B/3B | $5,400 | ||
| 6 | Cody Asche | LEFT | 0.264 | 0.132 | 34.1% | 7.0% | 25.6% | 37.4% | OF | $2,100 | 3B/OF | $3,900 | ||
| 7 | Avisail Garcia | RIGHT | 0.312 | 0.141 | 31.1% | 6.8% | 26.0% | 54.5% | OF | $3,100 | OF | $4,100 | ||
| 8 | Geovany Soto | RIGHT | 0.347 | 0.259 | 45.5% | 9.1% | 24.2% | 33.3% | C | $2,500 | C | $3,600 | ||
| 9 | Jacob May | SWITCH | 0.080 | 0.000 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 44.4% | 75.0% | OF | $2,000 | OF | $3,800 |
Elite Plays – None
Secondary Plays – Melky Cabrera, Jose Abreu, Todd Frazier
Stackability – RED
Cleveland
This game isn’t included in the early slate on FanDuel, but it is included in the early slate on DraftKings. The Indians have a huge implied run total against Miguel Gonzalez, who is expected to experience some regression this season. In his career, Gonzalez has allowed a .317+ wOBA to both left and right-handed hitters.
Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)
| # | Player | Bats | wOBA | ISO | HC% | BB% | K% | GB% | FD Pos. | FD Sal. | DK Pos. | DK Sal. | FDRFT Pos. | FDRFT Sal. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Carlos Santana | SWITCH | 0.387 | 0.283 | 39.7% | 15.7% | 16.1% | 38.3% | 1B | $3,700 | 1B | $4,800 | ||
| 2 | Francisco Lindor | SWITCH | 0.354 | 0.152 | 27.3% | 9.4% | 12.1% | 49.1% | SS | $4,000 | SS | $4,700 | ||
| 3 | Michael Brantley | LEFT | 0.208 | 0.000 | 31.6% | 8.2% | 14.3% | 55.3% | OF | $3,200 | OF | $5,000 | ||
| 4 | Edwin Encarnacion | RIGHT | 0.368 | 0.265 | 37.9% | 10.4% | 19.8% | 38.6% | 1B | $3,500 | 1B | $5,000 | ||
| 5 | Jose Ramirez | SWITCH | 0.349 | 0.149 | 25.9% | 7.1% | 8.9% | 39.8% | 3B | $3,400 | 3B/OF | $4,400 | ||
| 6 | Yandy Diaz | RIGHT | 0.287 | 0.083 | 77.8% | 7.7% | 23.1% | 66.7% | 3B | $2,100 | 3B | $3,000 | ||
| 7 | Tyler Naquin | LEFT | 0.377 | 0.219 | 40.1% | 9.2% | 31.4% | 43.6% | OF | $2,300 | OF | $3,900 | ||
| 8 | Yan Gomes | RIGHT | 0.185 | 0.146 | 31.0% | 3.5% | 25.4% | 38.0% | C | $2,100 | C | $3,500 | ||
| 9 | Abraham Almonte | SWITCH | 0.284 | 0.109 | 32.3% | 7.0% | 20.9% | 45.7% | OF | $2,300 | OF | $3,700 |