MLB Grind Down: Thursday, April 28th

by Derek Farnsworth (Notorious) Last Updated 2016-04-29 01:44:08

The RotoGrinders MLB Grind Down will give you an in-depth analysis into the upcoming MLB schedule. This article will break down the numbers for every single game and give you analysis on which trends you can exploit. While matchups are a major factor in daily fantasy baseball, there are plenty of other factors to consider such as injuries, weather, and salaries.

The analysis should point you in the right direction, but it is still up to you to decipher the information and make your own selections. No sport has more variance than baseball. The best choice is not always the right choice but following the trends will win you money over time.

Note: As always, if you want to try a new DFS site, be sure to click through a RotoGrinders link and use our DraftKings promo code and FanDuel promo code to receive the best perks in the industry.

Oakland at Detroit – 1:08 PM

Oakland					Detroit
			Chris Bassitt					Anibal Sanchez
			RIGHT					RIGHT
			Vegas Moneyline					Vegas Over/Under
			DET -135					8.5
Stats	wOBA	HR All.	K%	BB%	Stats	wOBA	HR All.	K%	BB%
SP vs. Left	0.287	4	16.1%	10.6%	SP vs. Left	0.307	12	22.7%	9.6%
SP vs. Right	0.342	5	19.3%	6.1%	SP vs. Right	0.376	21	18.8%	5.8%

Pitcher Grind Down

Chris Bassitt
				FanDuel:		DraftKings:
				Salary:$6,500		Salary:$6,600
				FPPG:22.8		FPPG:11.3
				Pitcher Rating:41.7		Pitcher Rank:13
Statistics	Starts	SIERA	K%	BB%	GB%	HH%	O-K%
2016	4	4.74	16.4%	10.0%	51.3%	30.9%	28
2015	13	4.39	17.7%	8.3%	44.5%	23.6%	13

It’s been more of the same for Bassitt in 2016. In his first four starts this season, he has a 4.74 SIERA with a strikeout rate of only 16.4%. His walk rate is up (10%) and so is his hard hit contact rate (30.9%). While the Tigers’ offense has been ice cold over the last couple of weeks, they are still a very capable offense (as evidenced by last night’s nine run outing). Bassitt is a sizable underdog on the road that doesn’t stand out as a great play in either slate (early-only or all-day).

Anibal Sanchez
				FanDuel:		DraftKings:
				Salary:$6,900		Salary:$8,100
				FPPG:21.8		FPPG:8.4
				Pitcher Rating:62.7		Pitcher Rank:6
Statistics	Starts	SIERA	K%	BB%	GB%	HH%	O-K%
2016	4	4.57	19.8%	10.5%	38.6%	35.6%	9
2015	25	4.03	20.9%	7.4%	40.0%	27.1%	4

After a somewhat disappointing 2015 season, Sanchez has struggled out of the gates here in 2016. In his first four starts, he has a 4.57 SIERA with a walk rate over 10% and a hard hit contact rate over 35%. The Athletics are not a team that we target for strikeout upside, as they have been ranked inside the top ten in strikeout rate against right-handed pitching in each of the last two seasons. He may be the third best pitching option in the early-only slate, but I much prefer targeting Jake Arrieta against the Brewers.

Batter Grind Down

Oakland

• Athletics Offense
  Team wOBA vs. RHP — 0.307 (22 of 30)
  Team ISO vs. RHP — 0.146 (21 of 30)
  Runs Per Game — 3.55 (25 of 30)
  Projected Run Total — 4.04 (11 of 16)

The A’s may not have a high team total, but their matchup isn’t one that we need to avoid. Anibal Sanchez has not been the same pitcher in the last couple of seasons, allowing a .307 wOBA to left-handed hitters and a .376 wOBA to right-handed hitters over the last two seasons. He has also allowed 29 home runs during that stretch.

Projected Lineup

Elite Plays – Stephen Vogt, Jed Lowrie

Secondary Plays – Chris Coghlan, Josh Reddick, Khris Davis

Stackability – GPP

Detroit

• Tigers Offense
  Team wOBA vs. RHP — 0.317 (15 of 30)
  Team ISO vs. RHP — 0.142 (22 of 30)
  Runs Per Game — 4.45 (10 of 30)
  Projected Run Total — 4.46 (6 of 16)

The Tigers have the sixth highest total of the 16 teams in action today. They draw a favorable matchup against Chris Bassitt at home in the somewhat hitter-friendly Comerica Park. Over the last two seasons, Bassitt has been a reverse-splits pitcher, allowed a .342 wOBA to batters from the right side of the plate.

Projected Lineup

Elite Plays – Miguel Cabrera

Secondary Plays – Ian Kinsler, Victor Martinez, J.D. Martinez, Jarrod Saltalamacchia

Stackability – GPP

Milwaukee at Chicago Cubs – 2:20 PM

Milwaukee					Chicago Cubs
			Taylor Jungmann					Jake Arrieta
			RIGHT					RIGHT
			Vegas Moneyline					Vegas Over/Under
			CHC -360					6.5
Stats	wOBA	HR All.	K%	BB%	Stats	wOBA	HR All.	K%	BB%
SP vs. Left	0.325	3	18.6%	11.3%	SP vs. Left	0.213	4	29.0%	6.7%
SP vs. Right	0.327	10	21.8%	8.5%	SP vs. Right	0.230	8	25.0%	4.5%

Pitcher Grind Down

Taylor Jungmann
				FanDuel:		DraftKings:
				Salary:$6,700		Salary:$6,900
				FPPG:9.0		FPPG:2.3
				Pitcher Rating:41.8		Pitcher Rank:12
Statistics	Starts	SIERA	K%	BB%	GB%	HH%	O-K%
2016	4	5.25	13.8%	12.5%	55.4%	43.1%	14
2015	21	4.11	21.4%	9.4%	46.3%	28.3%	30

These two pitchers were originally slated to square off against one another last night, but the game was rained out so they will both take the mound today. Jungmann is still looking to find his footing at the major league level. He pitched pretty well in 2015, but has a 5.23 SIERA in his first four starts this season. A matchup against the Cubs in Chicago isn’t going to help his cause, as they currently average the second most runs of any team in baseball. He is by far the largest underdog on the board and should be avoided in all league formats.

Jake Arrieta
				FanDuel:		DraftKings:
				Salary:$12,900		Salary:$13,600
				FPPG:52.5		FPPG:32.3
				Pitcher Rating:99.2		Pitcher Rank:1
Statistics	Starts	SIERA	K%	BB%	GB%	HH%	O-K%
2016	4	3.10	24.1%	5.6%	56.0%	21.1%	27
2015	33	2.75	27.1%	5.5%	56.2%	22.1%	23

Arrieta is coming off of another no-hitter and now he gets to face the Brewers at home with the wind blowing in from right-center field. I didn’t think it was possible, but the Brewers are projected to score less than two runs tonight. Arrieta is by far the best pitcher in the early-only and the all-day slates. Even though we have to pay a premium for him, it may very well be worth it given the lack of pitching options on the board. The only problem is that it’s tough to fit a lot of hitters from Coors Field if you roster Arrieta.

Batter Grind Down

Milwaukee

• Brewers Offense
  Team wOBA vs. RHP — 0.307 (20 of 30)
  Team ISO vs. RHP — 0.140 (24 of 30)
  Runs Per Game — 3.95 (17 of 30)
  Projected Run Total — 1.76 (16 of 16)

The Brewers have the lowest team total on the board at only 1.76 runs. They do not hit right-handed pitching well and they run into the buzz saw that is Jake Arrieta. Over the last two seasons, Arrieta has held both left and right-handed hitters under a .230 wOBA while striking out over 25% of the batters that he faced.

Projected Lineup

Elite Plays – NONE

Secondary Plays – NONE

Stackability – NONE

Chicago Cubs

• Cubs Offense
  Team wOBA vs. RHP — 0.316 (8 of 30)
  Team ISO vs. RHP — 0.160 (7 of 30)
  Runs Per Game — 6.15 (2 of 30)
  Projected Run Total — 4.74 (4 of 16)

The wind may be blowing in hard from right-center field (13 MPH), but the Cubs still have the fourth highest team total on the board. Their offense has been firing on all cylinders, averaging 6.15 runs per game this season. They draw a favorable matchup against Taylor Jungmann, who has allowed a .325+ wOBA to both left and right-handed hitters over the last two seasons.

Projected Lineup

Elite Plays – Dexter Fowler, Jason Heyward, Kris Bryant, Anthony Rizzo, Ben Zobrist

Secondary Plays – Tommy La Stella, Addison Russell

Stackability – Cash & GPP

Pittsburgh at Colorado – 3:10 PM

Pittsburgh					Colorado
			Juan Nicasio					Tyler Chatwood
			RIGHT					RIGHT
			Vegas Moneyline					Vegas Over/Under
			COL -105					11.0
Stats	wOBA	HR All.	K%	BB%	Stats	wOBA	HR All.	K%	BB%
SP vs. Left	0.402	2	22.3%	18.2%	SP vs. Left	0.243	0	13.7%	2.0%
SP vs. Right	0.270	2	26.3%	9.4%	SP vs. Right	0.397	3	18.4%	6.1%

Pitcher Grind Down

Juan Nicasio
				FanDuel:		DraftKings:
				Salary:$6,800		Salary:$4,500
				FPPG:29.3		FPPG:14.7
				Pitcher Rating:39.1		Pitcher Rank:14
Statistics	Starts	SIERA	K%	BB%	GB%	HH%	O-K%
2016	4	4.30	24.7%	12.9%	41.5%	20.8%	5
2015	1	3.77	25.0%	12.3%	43.3%	23.5%	19

Nicasio has always had electric stuff, he has just never been able to put it all together at the major league level. Part of the problem was that he spent some time in Colorado, where very few pitchers ever succeed. I like his outlook for this season, but not for today’s game, as he has to head back to Coors Field to take on the Rockies. As always, I will continue to avoid pitchers in Coors Field.

Tyler Chatwood
				FanDuel:		DraftKings:
				Salary:$4,900		Salary:$5,400
				FPPG:28.8		FPPG:14.0
				Pitcher Rating:35.9		Pitcher Rank:16
Statistics	Starts	SIERA	K%	BB%	GB%	HH%	O-K%
2016	4	3.76	16.0%	4.0%	53.2%	27.9%	3
2015							17

Chatwood produces a high ground ball rate (53%) which is what a pitcher in Coors Field needs to do to be successful. Unfortunately, he doesn’t have a high enough strikeout rate to warrant consideration. This game is expected to be a shootout and both pitchers can be avoided in all league formats.

Batter Grind Down

Pittsburgh

• Pirates Offense
  Team wOBA vs. RHP — 0.316 (8 of 30)
  Team ISO vs. RHP — 0.140 (26 of 30)
  Runs Per Game — 5.41 (3 of 30)
  Projected Run Total — 5.47 (2 of 16)

The Pirates have the second highest team total on the board today. In the first three games of this series, the Pirates have scored 24 runs. They have now won eight straight games in Coors Field, looking for their ninth today. With this game being played in Coors, we are less concerned about splits. Hitters from both sides of the plate are in play against Tyler Chatwood.

Projected Lineup

Elite Plays – John Jaso, Andrew McCutchen, David Freese, Starling Marte, Francisco Cervelli, Gregory Polanco

Secondary Plays – Josh Harrison

Stackability – Cash & GPP

Colorado

• Rockies Offense
  Team wOBA vs. RHP — 0.331 (2 of 30)
  Team ISO vs. RHP — 0.186 (1 of 30)
  Runs Per Game — 5.33 (4 of 30)
  Projected Run Total — 5.53 (1 of 16)

The Rockies can’t seem to beat the Pirates at home, but they come into today’s game as very small favorites. They have the highest team total on the board, as they take on a former Rockies’ pitcher in Juan Nicasio. Hitters from both side of the plate are in play here, but we have to give the edge to the lefties in the lineup. Nicasio has allowed a .402 wOBA to left-handed hitters over the last two seasons.

Projected Lineup

Elite Plays – Trevor Story, Carlos Gonzalez, Nolan Arenado, Gerardo Parra

Secondary Plays – DJ LeMahieu, Ben Paulsen

Stackability – Cash & GPP

Philadelphia at Washington – 4:05 PM

Philadelphia					Washington
			Aaron Nola					Tanner Roark
			RIGHT					RIGHT
			Vegas Moneyline					Vegas Over/Under
			WAS -160					7.5
Stats	wOBA	HR All.	K%	BB%	Stats	wOBA	HR All.	K%	BB%
SP vs. Left	0.330	5	16.1%	7.1%	SP vs. Left	0.339	9	15.3%	8.2%
SP vs. Right	0.274	9	28.1%	4.7%	SP vs. Right	0.315	9	17.6%	4.8%

Pitcher Grind Down

Aaron Nola
				FanDuel:		DraftKings:
				Salary:$7,200		Salary:$8,600
				FPPG:35.3		FPPG:20.2
				Pitcher Rating:76.1		Pitcher Rank:5
Statistics	Starts	SIERA	K%	BB%	GB%	HH%	O-K%
2016	4	2.79	29.1%	4.9%	43.9%	19.1%	16
2015	13	3.66	21.4%	6.0%	47.6%	28.8%	28

Nola has been terrific in his first four starts of the season, posting a 2.79 SIERA with a strikeout rate of 29.1%. He has only allowed a hard hit contact rate of 19.1% and he has been dominant against right-handed hitters. That could come in handy today against the Nationals, who really only have two quality left-handed hitters in their lineup. Nola is a huge underdog in this matchup, but he has nice strikeout upside and makes for a sneaky GPP play.

Tanner Roark
				FanDuel:		DraftKings:
				Salary:$8,200		Salary:$7,800
				FPPG:36.8		FPPG:18.9
				Pitcher Rating:62.8		Pitcher Rank:6
Statistics	Starts	SIERA	K%	BB%	GB%	HH%	O-K%
2016	4	3.96	23.1%	10.6%	50.0%	20.6%	19
2015	12	4.16	15.0%	5.6%	47.8%	26.3%	21

Roark is coming off of a career game. He struck out 15 batters in seven shutout innings against the Twins. To say that start was uncharacteristic is a bit of an understatement. In 12 starts last season (and quite a lot of work out of the bullpen), Roark only struck out 15% of the batters that he faced. His last start was more of an exception rather than the rule. His price has come up on both sites, but he is playable if you want to load up on the Coors Field game in the early-only slate. He is a large favorite against the Phillies and he is pitching at home.

Batter Grind Down

Philadelphia

• Phillies Offense
  Team wOBA vs. RHP — 0.297 (27 of 30)
  Team ISO vs. RHP — 0.137 (27 of 30)
  Runs Per Game — 3.29 (29 of 30)
  Projected Run Total — 3.40 (13 of 16)

The Phillies have the fourth lowest team total on the board overall and the second lowest of the eight teams playing in the early-only slate. They draw a fairly difficult matchup against Tanner Roark in the pitcher-friendly Nationals Park. If you need some value, you could look to the left-handed hitters in this since. Over the last two seasons, Roark has allowed a .339 wOBA to batters from the left side of the plate.

Projected Lineup

Elite Plays – NONE

Secondary Plays – Odubel Herrera, Cesar Hernandez, Maikel Franco, Ryan Howard

Stackability – NONE

Washington

• Nationals Offense
  Team wOBA vs. RHP — 0.310 (19 of 30)
  Team ISO vs. RHP — 0.150 (17 of 30)
  Runs Per Game — 4.10 (15 of 30)
  Projected Run Total — 4.10 (9 of 16)

The Nationals have a mediocre team total of 4.10 runs, as they square off against the talented young right-hander, Aaron Nola. As I mentioned earlier, Nola has bene dominate against right-handed hitters, holding them to a .274 wOBA. It has been a different story against lefties though, as he has allowed a .330 wOBA while striking out only 16.1% of the left-handed hitters that he has faced.

Projected Lineup

Elite Plays – Bryce Harper

Secondary Plays – Daniel Murphy

Stackability – NONE

Chicago White Sox at Baltimore – 7:05 PM

Chicago White Sox					Baltimore
			John Danks					Tyler Wilson
			LEFT					RIGHT
			Vegas Moneyline					Vegas Over/Under
			BAL -130					8.5
Stats	wOBA	HR All.	K%	BB%	Stats	wOBA	HR All.	K%	BB%
SP vs. Left	0.314	9	15.5%	5.2%	SP vs. Left	0.306	0	3.9%	7.7%
SP vs. Right	0.356	18	16.3%	8.5%	SP vs. Right	0.322	2	15.3%	5.1%

Pitcher Grind Down

John Danks
				FanDuel:		DraftKings:
				Salary:$6,300		Salary:$5,500
				FPPG:17.3		FPPG:7.4
				Pitcher Rating:42.0		Pitcher Rank:11
Statistics	Starts	SIERA	K%	BB%	GB%	HH%	O-K%
2016	3	5.52	15.8%	11.8%	30.9%	32.7%	13
2015	30	4.63	16.2%	7.3%	38.2%	28.6%	26

Danks is not, has not, and will not be on my radar as a viable pitching option in daily fantasy baseball. That may sound harsh, but it’s the truth. He has a below-average strikeout rate, he walks more than most pitchers, he gives up a lot of hard contact, and he can’t seem to get right-handed hitters out. Danks is an extreme fly-ball pitcher that will likely struggle against a right-handed heavy lineup of the Orioles. The fact that he has to face them on the road in Camden Yards only makes it worse.

Tyler Wilson
				FanDuel:		DraftKings:
				Salary:$5,500		Salary:$4,800
				FPPG:14.3		FPPG:7.2
				Pitcher Rating:58.0		Pitcher Rank:9
Statistics	Starts	SIERA	K%	BB%	GB%	HH%	O-K%
2016	1	4.36	11.3%	3.8%	44.4%	20.0%	4
2015	5	5.08	8.7%	7.4%	52.0%	31.5%	16

Wilson is making his second start of the season and his seventh start in the last two years. He hasn’t been particularly effective at the major league level, sporting a strikeout rate around 10%. He may be a favorite tonight, but he is a risky fantasy option. With such a low strikeout rate, it would take near a perfect outing for him to pay off his salary. He also draws a tough matchup against the White Sox, who are ranked fourth in strikeout against right-handed pitching this season.

Batter Grind Down

Chicago White Sox

• White Sox Offense
  Team wOBA vs. RHP — 0.305 (22 of 30)
  Team ISO vs. RHP — 0.137 (28 of 30)
  Runs Per Game — 3.73 (21 of 30)
  Projected Run Total — 4.07 (10 of 16)

The White Sox may not have the most potent offense, but they draw a favorable matchup against Tyler Wilson in the hitter-friendly Camden Yards. The sample size is small, but Wilson has allowed a .306 wOBA to left-handed hitters and a .322 wOBA to right-handed hitters in his last six starts. With the White Sox, it comes down to value. Target their hitters on sites where you can find them for cheap.

The White Sox

Projected Lineup

Elite Plays – Adam Eaton, Jose Abreu (FD)

Secondary Plays – Todd Frazier, Melky Cabrera

Stackability – NONE

Baltimore

• Orioles Offense
  Team wOBA vs. LHP — 0.289 (28 of 30)
  Team ISO vs. LHP — 0.132 (16 of 30)
  Runs Per Game — 4.25 (14 of 30)
  Projected Run Total — 4.43 (7 of 16)

The Orioles may not have the highest total in the evening slate, but they are still my favorite offense to target. John Danks is an extreme fly-ball pitcher that struggles against right-handed hitters. Over the last two seasons, Danks has allowed a .356 wOBA and 18 home runs to hitters from the right side of the plate. That bodes well for the Orioles, who hit a ton of home runs and have eight right-handed bats in their lineup. Are you ready for the crazy statistic of the day? In 33 at bats against Danks, Adam Jones has one hit and eight strikeouts.

Projected Lineup

Elite Plays – Joey Rickard, Manny Machado, Mark Trumbo, Matt Wieters, J.J. Hardy

Secondary Plays – Chris Davis, Adam Jones, Jonathan Schoop

Stackability – Cash & GPP

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