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MLB Grind Down: Thursday, August 24th

by Derek Farnsworth (Notorious) Last Updated 2017-08-25 02:42:56

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The RotoGrinders MLB Grind Down will give you an in-depth analysis into the upcoming MLB schedule. This article will break down the numbers for every single game and give you analysis on which trends you can exploit. While matchups are a major factor in daily fantasy baseball, there are plenty of other factors to consider such as injuries, weather, and salaries.

The analysis should point you in the right direction, but it is still up to you to decipher the information and make your own selections. No sport has more variance than baseball. The best choice is not always the right choice but following the trends will win you money over time.

Note: As always, if you want to try a new DFS site, be sure to click through a RotoGrinders link and use our DraftKings promo code, FanDuel promo code, and FantasyDraft promo code to receive the best perks in the industry.

Stackability Rating System:

GREEN – A viable full stack in cash games and GPPs.
YELLOW – A viable mini-stack in cash games and full stack in GPPs.
ORANGE – A viable stack in large field GPPs.
RED – Not a recommended stack for cash games or GPPs.

Arizona at NY Mets – 12:10 PM ET

Arizona NY Mets
Article Image Robbie Ray Article Image Rafael Montero
LEFT RIGHT
Vegas Moneyline Vegas Over/Under
ARI-130 8.5
Stats wOBA xwOBA HC% BB% K% GB% Stats wOBA xwOBA HC% BB% K% GB%
SP vs. Left (2016-17) 0.286 0.268 41.5% 6.1% 34.2% 49.4% SP vs. Left (2016-17) 0.364 0.328 25.4% 12.3% 19.1% 43.6%
SP vs. Right (2016-17) 0.325 0.327 37.8% 11.3% 27.7% 41.5% SP vs. Right (2016-17) 0.382 0.337 27.5% 12.6% 24.4% 46.3%

Pitcher Grind Down

Robbie Ray
Article Image FanDuel DraftKings FantasyDraft
Salary: $9,200 Salary: $12,500 Salary: $24,400
Salary Rank: 5 of 30 Salary Rank: 2 of 30 Salary Rank: 2 of 30
Stats Starts SIERA ERA K% BB% GB% HC% SC%
2016 32 3.59 4.90 28.1% 9.2% 45.7% 36.6% 16.0%
2017 20 3.89 3.11 30.6% 11.8% 38.9% 42.0% 17.8%
L30 2 4.72 5.40 20.0% 10.0% 42.9% 52.4% 9.5%

We have quite the mix of early slates on tap today. FanDuel is offering a four-game slate, DraftKings is offering a five-game slate, and FantasyDraft is offering a six-game slate. Oh, the choices. Rather than trying to break down the strategy for each site, I will treat all of the early games as the same slate in the Grind Down and depending on the site(s) you are playing on, you can adjust from there.

Ray is making his first start in nearly a month, after that scary line drive to the side of his head. It’s really good to see him back on the mound, but it’s hard to know if he’s going to be timid in his first start back from a concussion. He’s having a tremendous season overall and he draws an exploitable matchup against the Mets in Citi Field. The good news is that he did make a rehab start in the minors, striking out 11 batters. Given the lack of options in the early slate, I will be firing up Ray in both cash games and tournaments.

Quick Breakdown: Even though this is his first start back, Ray is an elite play in the early slate.

Rafael Montero
Article Image FanDuel DraftKings FantasyDraft
Salary: $6,400 Salary: $6,200 Salary: $12,300
Salary Rank: 24 of 30 Salary Rank: 25 of 30 Salary Rank: 19 of 30
Stats Starts SIERA ERA K% BB% GB% HC% SC%
2016 3 5.40 8.05 21.5% 17.2% 35.7% 31.6% 17.5%
2017 11 4.57 5.47 22.1% 11.2% 47.3% 25.2% 18.8%
L30 6 4.57 5.29 22.0% 10.6% 48.9% 24.7% 22.6%

Montero has a decent strikeout rate (22%), but he carries more risk than most pitchers. He has a high walk rate and his SIERA on the season is sitting at 4.57. He’s certainly not the worst pitching option in the slate, but he’s a boom or bust pitcher that is facing a boom or bust offense. The Diamondbacks have plenty of firepower in their lineup, but they also strikeout at a high rate and struggle away from home. On multi-pitcher sites, it’s not the worst idea to target both of the pitchers from this game and hope for a pitching duel.

Quick Breakdown: Montero is cheap enough that you can look at him as an SP2, but he’s not a core play in the early slate.

Batter Grind Down

Arizona

The Diamondbacks couldn’t string together hits last night, but I get the feeling that it’s close to breaking out. They draw a decent matchup today against Rafael Montero, who has allowed a .328+ xwOBA to both left and right-handed hitters in the last two seasons. Arizona has plenty of firepower in their lineup and we know that Montero can struggle with his command at times. I expect the Diamondbacks to have plenty of baserunners once again, they just need some timely hits to score runs.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

# Player Bats wOBA xwOBA ISO HC% BB% K% GB% FD Pos. FD Sal. DK Pos. DK Sal. FDRFT Pos. FDRFT Sal.
1 David Peralta LEFT 0.365 0.319 0.180 35.6% 7.1% 14.7% 53.0% OF $3,400 OF $3,800 RF $7,600
2 A.J. Pollock RIGHT 0.328 0.311 0.153 38.9% 6.8% 20.8% 44.6% OF $3,200 OF $4,500 CF $8,700
3 Jake Lamb LEFT 0.404 0.381 0.285 37.0% 14.2% 21.5% 39.4% 3B $3,700 3B $4,800 3B $9,300
4 Paul Goldschmidt RIGHT 0.430 0.399 0.291 43.3% 14.4% 23.1% 45.7% 1B $4,200 1B $5,300 1B $10,200
5 J.D. Martinez RIGHT 0.357 0.375 0.281 41.9% 11.5% 26.4% 42.5% OF $4,100 OF $5,200 RF $10,200
6 Daniel Descalso LEFT 0.335 0.322 0.171 41.2% 11.8% 22.7% 37.3% 2B $2,300 2B/OF $3,000 2B $6,000
7 Chris Herrmann LEFT 0.273 0.310 0.174 38.2% 13.3% 27.7% 48.0% C $2,000 C/OF $2,500 IF/OF $4,800
8 Ketel Marte SWITCH 0.328 0.317 0.169 24.6% 8.6% 20.4% 36.5% SS $2,500 SS $2,900 SS $5,600
9 Robbie Ray LEFT 0.249 0.213 0.065 21.7% 5.4% 32.4% 66.7% P $9,200 P $12,500 P $24,400

Elite Plays – David Peralta, Jake Lamb

Secondary Plays – A.J. Pollock, Paul Goldschmidt, J.D. Martinez, Chris Herrmann

Stackability – YELLOW

NY Mets

There is a small concern that Robbie Ray could be a little timid in his first start back, but he showed no ill effects in his rehab start. With an elite strikeout rate, it’s hard to be too excited about the Mets’ hitters in this ballpark. With that said, Ray has struggled a bit against right-handed batters, allowing a .327 xwOBA and a 38% hard contact rate since the beginning of last season. Yoenis Cespedes and Travis d’Arnaud both hit from the right side and both own a .230+ ISO against left-handed pitching this season. They are both intriguing leverage plays off of the chalky Ray.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. LH Pitching)

# Player Bats wOBA xwOBA ISO HC% BB% K% GB% FD Pos. FD Sal. DK Pos. DK Sal. FDRFT Pos. FDRFT Sal.
1 Juan Lagares RIGHT 0.323 0.293 0.154 36.4% 4.5% 18.2% 37.5% OF $2,000 OF $2,500 CF $4,800
2 Asdrubal Cabrera SWITCH 0.358 0.314 0.083 36.6% 5.0% 13.9% 51.9% 3B $2,400 2B/SS $3,000 SS $6,000
3 Yoenis Cespedes RIGHT 0.321 0.338 0.268 44.4% 8.8% 22.5% 27.8% OF $3,900 OF $3,900 LF $7,600
4 Wilmer Flores RIGHT 0.341 0.295 0.258 40.5% 2.0% 17.3% 35.4% 2B $2,900 1B/3B $3,300 3B $6,600
5 Michael Conforto LEFT 0.328 0.336 0.247 42.9% 7.8% 35.9% 35.7% OF $4,000 OF $3,900 LF $7,800
6 Travis d’Arnaud RIGHT 0.374 0.324 0.234 34.7% 11.1% 20.8% 53.1% C $2,300 C $2,700 C $5,400
7 Amed Rosario RIGHT 0.378 0.326 0.231 22.2% 7.1% 28.6% 44.4% SS $2,600 SS $3,000 SS $6,000
8 Dominic Smith LEFT 0.000 0.312 0.000 50.0% 0.0% 33.3% 100.0% 1B $2,500 1B $2,500 1B $4,800
9 Rafael Montero RIGHT 0.000 0.017 0.000 0.0% 0.0% 33.3% 50.0% P $6,400 P $6,200 P $12,300

Elite Plays – None

Secondary Plays – Yoenis Cespedes, Travis d’Arnaud

Stackability – ORANGE

Miami at Philadelphia – 1:05 PM ET

Miami Philadelphia
Article Image Vance Worley Article Image Jake Thompson
RIGHT RIGHT
Vegas Moneyline Vegas Over/Under
MIA-112 10.0
Stats wOBA xwOBA HC% BB% K% GB% Stats wOBA xwOBA HC% BB% K% GB%
SP vs. Left (2016-17) 0.339 0.317 34.4% 10.6% 16.0% 47.9% SP vs. Left (2016-17) 0.375 0.370 33.9% 14.4% 11.1% 50.9%
SP vs. Right (2016-17) 0.325 0.322 32.9% 6.8% 14.7% 51.3% SP vs. Right (2016-17) 0.375 0.376 37.2% 8.4% 16.2% 40.7%

Pitcher Grind Down

Vance Worley
Article Image FanDuel DraftKings FantasyDraft
Salary: $5,500 Salary: $6,400 Salary: $12,800
Salary Rank: 29 of 30 Salary Rank: 22 of 30 Salary Rank: 15 of 30
Stats Starts SIERA ERA K% BB% GB% HC% SC%
2016 4 4.79 3.53 15.3% 9.6% 48.1% 31.6% 15.2%
2017 9 4.64 4.82 15.2% 7.4% 51.9% 36.6% 15.9%
L30 5 5.03 2.96 9.9% 8.1% 59.8% 26.1% 19.3%

We have two bad pitchers on the mound today in Philadelphia and Vegas is clearly expecting a shootout (total is set at 10.0 runs). Worley has been hittable all season. In nine starts, he owns a 4.64 SIERA with a strikeout rate of 15% and a hard contact rate of 37%. He does have a high ground ball rate (which is needed in this ballpark), but he doesn’t have the strikeout upside that we are looking for in a pitcher. This is a rare opportunity to target the Phillies’ offense.

Quick Breakdown: Worley has more downside than upside, even in a matchup against the Phillies.

Jake Thompson
Article Image FanDuel DraftKings FantasyDraft
Salary: $6,300 Salary: $5,500 Salary: $10,800
Salary Rank: 24 of 30 Salary Rank: 29 of 30 Salary Rank: 23 of 30
Stats Starts SIERA ERA K% BB% GB% HC% SC%
2016 10 5.68 5.70 13.5% 11.8% 46.4% 34.1% 14.5%
2017 2 5.45 4.20 14.3% 10.0% 44.2% 40.4% 15.4%
L30 2 4.87 1.80 15.6% 6.7% 50.0% 41.2% 11.8%

Thompson has made 12 starts over the last two seasons. During that stretch, he has a SIERA over 5.50 with a strikeout rate under 14% and a hard contact rate over 34%. It’s safe to say that he hasn’t been able to figure out the major leagues. He isn’t particularly effective against batters from either side of the plate and he has to pitch in one of the most home run-friendly ballparks in baseball (Citizens Bank Park).

Quick Breakdown: If you like scoring fantasy points, Thompson shouldn’t be on your radar.

Batter Grind Down

Miami

The Marlins see a favorable ballpark bump playing in Philadelphia and they arguably draw the best matchup in the slate. The sample size is still small (12 starts), but Jake Thompson has allowed a .370+ xwOBA and a 34%+ hard contact rate to both left and right-handed hitters. Thompson also has a low strikeout rate and a high walk rate. This is a great spot to load up on the Marlins and to load up on the hitters from this game. The one through five stack is firmly in play in tournaments and I don’t mind using a few Marlins’ hitters in cash games as well.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

# Player Bats wOBA xwOBA ISO HC% BB% K% GB% FD Pos. FD Sal. DK Pos. DK Sal. FDRFT Pos. FDRFT Sal.
1 Dee Gordon LEFT 0.310 0.260 0.072 18.6% 5.0% 13.5% 55.6% 2B $3,300 2B $4,200 2B $8,000
2 Giancarlo Stanton RIGHT 0.412 0.403 0.345 38.6% 11.0% 25.1% 41.8% OF $5,300 OF $5,800 RF $11,200
3 Christian Yelich LEFT 0.340 0.357 0.146 38.2% 12.9% 20.4% 56.0% OF $3,400 OF $4,700 CF $9,300
4 Marcell Ozuna RIGHT 0.392 0.372 0.264 42.1% 9.0% 21.7% 44.6% OF $4,000 OF $4,900 LF $9,600
5 J.T. Realmuto RIGHT 0.326 0.330 0.155 31.8% 5.7% 17.5% 50.8% C $3,000 C $4,000 C $7,800
6 Derek Dietrich LEFT 0.304 0.309 0.166 34.8% 7.7% 19.2% 33.8% 3B $3,200 3B $3,600 3B $7,200
7 Tomas Telis SWITCH 0.337 0.320 0.139 39.4% 2.6% 7.9% 48.5% 1B $2,200 1B $3,000 C $6,000
8 Miguel Rojas RIGHT 0.291 0.309 0.027 18.0% 8.1% 9.8% 48.0% SS $2,400 SS $2,600 2B $5,200
9 Vance Worley RIGHT 0.319 0.216 0.000 8.3% 0.0% 25.0% 57.1% P $5,500 P $6,400 P $12,800

Elite Plays – Dee Gordon, Giancarlo Stanton, Christian Yelich, Marcell Ozuna, J.T. Realmuto

Secondary Plays – Derek Dietrich, Tomas Telis

Stackability – GREEN

Philadelphia

If you’ve played fantasy baseball for more than a couple of days, then you know that baseball games don’t always play out like we expect them to. Anything can obviously happen in a single game, but this one has a great chance of being a shootout. We have two bad pitchers squaring off in a good hitter’s park. Since the start of last season, Vance Worley has allowed a .317+ xwOBA and a 33%+ hard contact rate to both left and right-handed hitters. My two favorite targets here are the two rookies, Nick Williams and Rhys Hoskins.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

# Player Bats wOBA xwOBA ISO HC% BB% K% GB% FD Pos. FD Sal. DK Pos. DK Sal. FDRFT Pos. FDRFT Sal.
1 Cesar Hernandez SWITCH 0.345 0.305 0.109 21.4% 10.0% 20.4% 50.3% 2B $3,100 2B $3,600 2B $7,200
2 Freddy Galvis SWITCH 0.318 0.293 0.167 29.0% 7.8% 19.7% 37.3% SS $3,100 SS $3,500 SS $6,900
3 Nick Williams LEFT 0.348 0.331 0.207 41.2% 6.3% 25.8% 50.6% OF $3,100 OF $3,400 LF $6,800
4 Rhys Hoskins RIGHT 0.304 0.316 0.158 40.0% 13.6% 18.2% 20.0% OF $3,300 1B $4,000 1B $7,600
5 Tommy Joseph RIGHT 0.304 0.307 0.156 37.7% 5.8% 22.1% 43.6% 1B $2,400 1B $3,200 1B $6,400
6 Hyun-Soo Kim LEFT 0.255 0.332 0.054 27.1% 10.1% 18.3% 45.7% OF $2,100 OF $3,000 IF/OF $6,000
7 Maikel Franco RIGHT 0.279 0.299 0.156 28.5% 6.1% 15.6% 45.9% 3B $2,500 3B $3,000 3B $6,000
8 Jorge Alfaro RIGHT 0.335 0.290 0.158 16.7% 0.0% 36.8% 41.7% C $2,100 C $2,900 C $5,700
9 Jake Thompson RIGHT 0.000 0.202 0.000 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 100.0% P $6,300 P $5,500 P $10,800

Elite Plays – Nick Williams, Rhys Hoskins

Secondary Plays – Cesar Hernandez, Freddy Galvis, Tommy Joseph

Stackability – YELLOW

NY Yankees at Detroit – 1:10 PM ET

NY Yankees Detroit
Article Image Jaime Garcia Article Image Michael Fulmer
LEFT RIGHT
Vegas Moneyline Vegas Over/Under
DET-107 9.0
Stats wOBA xwOBA HC% BB% K% GB% Stats wOBA xwOBA HC% BB% K% GB%
SP vs. Left (2016-17) 0.297 0.278 25.8% 4.4% 23.7% 51.1% SP vs. Left (2016-17) 0.285 0.320 32.7% 6.8% 18.2% 46.3%
SP vs. Right (2016-17) 0.337 0.321 32.0% 9.5% 18.3% 57.1% SP vs. Right (2016-17) 0.277 0.284 27.7% 5.5% 19.7% 51.8%

Pitcher Grind Down

Jaime Garcia
Article Image FanDuel DraftKings FantasyDraft
Salary: $7,200 Salary: $6,800 Salary: $13,500
Salary Rank: 13 of 30 Salary Rank: 20 of 30 Salary Rank: 14 of 30
Stats Starts SIERA ERA K% BB% GB% HC% SC%
2016 30 3.93 4.67 20.2% 7.7% 56.7% 31.1% 18.6%
2017 22 4.62 4.52 18.3% 9.4% 54.9% 30.2% 21.7%
L30 5 4.76 5.22 18.8% 10.9% 55.6% 38.9% 14.4%

For some strange reason, Garcia was traded to the Yankees and half of the DFS community immediately expected him to be a better pitcher. If anything, I thought the trade hurt his fantasy appeal, as he now has to pitch in a tough ballpark and a tough division. The one positive with Garcia is always is his ability to generate ground balls at a high rate. Unfortunately, that advantage may be negated in a matchup against the Tigers, who have one of the highest fly ball rates as a team against left-handed pitching this season.

Quick Breakdown: I’ll let everyone else drink the Jaime Kool-Aid.

Michael Fulmer
Article Image FanDuel DraftKings FantasyDraft
Salary: $8,600 Salary: $8,100 Salary: $15,600
Salary Rank: 8 of 30 Salary Rank: 11 of 30 Salary Rank: 11 of 30
Stats Starts SIERA ERA K% BB% GB% HC% SC%
2016 26 4.03 3.06 20.4% 6.5% 49.1% 30.4% 19.2%
2017 23 4.40 3.60 17.4% 5.8% 49.0% 29.9% 17.4%
L30 4 4.55 4.85 17.3% 7.3% 46.2% 38.3% 16.1%

Fulmer didn’t pitch great in his first start back from injury, but bounced back with a very nice outing against the Dodgers. We’ve seen his strikeout decline this season, but he still has a high ground ball rate and he still induces a lot of soft and medium contact. The elephant in the room today is his matchup against the Yankees, who have scored 23 runs in the first two games in this series. I do prefer Fulmer over Garcia in this game, but I’m not planning on using either in the early slate.

Quick Breakdown: Fulmer draws one of the worst matchups in the slate. He’s a secondary option at best.

Batter Grind Down

NY Yankees

If we look strictly as Michael Fulmer splits, there isn’t a lot to love for the Yankees in this matchup. He has been tough on right-handed hitters, holding them to a .284 xwOBA on a 52% ground ball rate in the last two seasons. His numbers against lefties are slightly more appealing, as he’s allowed a .320 xwOBA with a 33% hard contact rate. Often times, there is more to baseball than the numbers though, and Fulmer comes into this start in relatively bad form. Gary Sanchez and Aaron Judge are two of the best hitters at their respective positions, but both make interesting fades in a short slate where they should both be popular. My favorite targets here are those that can hit from the left side – Brett Gardner, Aaron Hicks, and Didi Gregorius.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

# Player Bats wOBA xwOBA ISO HC% BB% K% GB% FD Pos. FD Sal. DK Pos. DK Sal. FDRFT Pos. FDRFT Sal.
1 Brett Gardner LEFT 0.353 0.339 0.201 33.2% 12.0% 19.0% 40.9% OF $3,500 OF $4,400 LF $8,400
2 Aaron Hicks SWITCH 0.377 0.340 0.222 29.5% 16.4% 16.4% 42.9% OF $3,300 OF $4,300 CF $8,400
3 Aaron Judge RIGHT 0.426 0.421 0.323 45.1% 15.4% 32.3% 36.3% OF $4,100 OF $5,200 RF $10,200
4 Didi Gregorius LEFT 0.378 0.291 0.234 26.3% 4.3% 12.7% 40.5% SS $3,200 SS $4,200 SS $8,100
5 Gary Sanchez RIGHT 0.368 0.369 0.241 35.9% 7.6% 23.8% 44.3% C $3,800 C $5,100 C $10,000
6 Chase Headley SWITCH 0.352 0.329 0.136 31.0% 12.5% 24.3% 44.3% 1B $3,000 1B/3B $3,600 3B $7,200
7 Todd Frazier RIGHT 0.324 0.344 0.186 29.1% 13.2% 22.1% 38.5% 3B $3,600 3B $3,700 3B $7,200
8 Jacoby Ellsbury LEFT 0.333 0.328 0.148 26.8% 9.9% 14.1% 45.7% OF $3,100 OF $3,600 CF $7,200
9 Ronald Torreyes RIGHT 0.289 0.245 0.090 19.4% 2.3% 13.5% 48.9% 2B $2,400 2B/SS $2,400 2B $4,800

Elite Plays – Brett Gardner, Didi Gregorius

Secondary Plays – Aaron Hicks, Aaron Judge, Gary Sanchez, Chase Headley

Stackability – YELLOW

Detroit

Jaime Garcia has a 55% ground ball rate this season and he has a 57% ground ball rate when facing right-handed hitters over the last two seasons combined. That’s never ideal, but the Tigers are an offense that is full of fly-ball hitters. The one through five batters in this lineup (as well as James McCann) all have above-average fly-ball rates against southpaws this season. Ian Kinsler and McCann are extreme fly-ball hitters, which should bode well for their matchup against Garcia. I’m still down on the Tigers’ offense as a whole, but will be taking some shots on them in the early slate. I expect Detroit to be low owned today, which is usually when they show up.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. LH Pitching)

# Player Bats wOBA xwOBA ISO HC% BB% K% GB% FD Pos. FD Sal. DK Pos. DK Sal. FDRFT Pos. FDRFT Sal.
1 Ian Kinsler RIGHT 0.373 0.383 0.261 44.4% 11.5% 10.6% 24.7% 2B $3,600 2B $4,100 2B $8,100
2 Mikie Mahtook RIGHT 0.349 0.349 0.221 45.8% 3.7% 19.3% 39.8% OF $2,800 OF $3,500 CF $6,900
3 Justin Upton RIGHT 0.463 0.391 0.347 46.6% 10.2% 20.4% 42.5% OF $3,900 OF $5,000 LF $9,900
4 Miguel Cabrera RIGHT 0.372 0.414 0.110 45.0% 16.3% 22.4% 38.3% 1B $3,200 1B $3,500 1B $6,900
5 Nick Castellanos RIGHT 0.374 0.397 0.327 45.1% 6.6% 18.2% 40.7% 3B $3,300 3B $4,100 3B $8,100
6 Victor Martinez SWITCH 0.292 0.284 0.067 29.9% 7.3% 12.5% 54.5% C $2,600 1B $3,300 1B $6,400
7 James McCann RIGHT 0.430 0.436 0.289 41.8% 8.7% 17.4% 31.3% C $2,500 C $2,600 C $5,200
8 Andrew Romine LEFT 0.282 0.258 0.104 47.2% 5.8% 25.0% 60.0% OF $2,500 2B/OF $2,500 IF/OF $4,800
9 Jose Iglesias RIGHT 0.257 0.268 0.065 21.6% 3.7% 4.9% 47.9% SS $2,200 SS $2,800 SS $5,600

Elite Plays – Ian Kinsler, Miguel Cabrera, James McCann

Secondary Plays – Mikie Mahtook, Justin Upton, Nick Castellanos

Stackability – YELLOW / GREEN

Toronto at Tampa Bay – 1:10 PM ET

Toronto Tampa Bay
Article Image Tom Koehler Article Image Alex Cobb
RIGHT RIGHT
Vegas Moneyline Vegas Over/Under
TB -163 9.0
Stats wOBA xwOBA HC% BB% K% GB% Stats wOBA xwOBA HC% BB% K% GB%
SP vs. Left (2016-17) 0.363 0.364 31.6% 13.5% 19.0% 37.2% SP vs. Left (2016-17) 0.340 0.338 35.7% 8.9% 16.8% 41.2%
SP vs. Right (2016-17) 0.328 0.324 28.7% 7.9% 17.9% 45.2% SP vs. Right (2016-17) 0.309 0.324 36.9% 4.2% 15.0% 50.5%

Pitcher Grind Down

Tom Koehler
Article Image FanDuel DraftKings FantasyDraft
Salary: $5,500 Salary: $5,900 Salary: $11,700
Salary Rank: 29 of 30 Salary Rank: 27 of 30 Salary Rank: 21 of 30
Stats Starts SIERA ERA K% BB% GB% HC% SC%
2016 33 4.85 4.33 19.0% 10.7% 42.2% 28.6% 21.0%
2017 12 5.40 7.92 17.0% 11.2% 38.1% 34.8% 16.0%
L30 1 6.36 7.94 7.1% 7.1% 36.4% 34.8% 34.8%

Koehler will be making his first start as a member of the Blue Jays, who are basically out of playoff contention at this point of the season. Koehler is really having a tough season, posting a 5.40 SIERA with a strikeout rate of 17%, a walk rate of 11%, and a hard contact rate of 35%. A move to the American League East isn’t going to help his cause. Luckily, he gets to pitch in a pitcher-friendly ballpark today. The issue here is obviously the upside. The best way to attack the Rays is with a high strikeout pitcher, but Koehler doesn’t really have that in his repertoire.

Quick Breakdown: Until we see a noticeable improvement from Koehler, he should continue to be avoided in DFS.

Alex Cobb
Article Image FanDuel DraftKings FantasyDraft
Salary: $7,600 Salary: $8,800 Salary: $17,200
Salary Rank: 11 of 30 Salary Rank: 8 of 30 Salary Rank: 8 of 30
Stats Starts SIERA ERA K% BB% GB% HC% SC%
2016 5 4.50 8.59 15.4% 6.7% 52.5% 29.6% 17.3%
2017 23 4.72 3.80 15.8% 6.1% 45.7% 37.6% 14.3%
L30 4 4.20 4.88 16.8% 4.2% 48.0% 44.0% 13.3%

Cobb is having a down season in 2017 and basically hasn’t looked the same since having Tommy John surgery. In 23 starts this year, he has a 4.72 SIERA with a strikeout rate of 16% and a hard contact rate of 38%. He has missed the last three weeks with a toe injury, but says that he is good to go for today’s start against the Blue Jays. Cobb has pitched well against Toronto in his career, but the recent form, the low strikeout upside, and the fact that this is his first game back from injury are all good reasons to fade him today. However, he’s a sizable favorite at home and we only have so many options in the early slate.

Quick Breakdown: There are red flags, but Cobb still deserves consideration as an SP2.

Batter Grind Down

Toronto

The Blue Jays aren’t playing in the best hitter’s park around, but they draw an exploitable matchup against Alex Cobb, who has allowed a .324+ xwOBA and a 36%+ hard contact rate to both left and right-handed hitters. Cobb does have a high ground ball rate against righties, but most of the hitters in this Blue Jays’ lineup have high fly-ball rates, so that’s not a big concern. The Blue Jays all come down to value. I’m not going out of my way to target them in this slate, but Nori Aoki (if batting leadoff), Jose Bautista, and Kendrys Morales are all dirt cheap.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

# Player Bats wOBA xwOBA ISO HC% BB% K% GB% FD Pos. FD Sal. DK Pos. DK Sal. FDRFT Pos. FDRFT Sal.
1 Norichika Aoki LEFT 0.297 0.276 0.112 20.8% 6.7% 13.8% 56.9% OF $2,500 OF $3,500 LF $6,800
2 Josh Donaldson RIGHT 0.389 0.379 0.249 33.7% 15.9% 23.1% 41.0% 3B $3,900 3B $4,600 3B $8,800
3 Justin Smoak SWITCH 0.371 0.395 0.280 41.7% 9.9% 22.7% 33.7% 1B $3,200 1B $4,500 1B $8,800
4 Jose Bautista RIGHT 0.321 0.330 0.190 34.4% 13.1% 22.6% 34.7% OF $3,500 OF $3,700 RF $7,200
5 Kendrys Morales SWITCH 0.292 0.355 0.188 35.5% 7.8% 21.7% 47.6% 1B $2,400 1B $2,700 1B $5,400
6 Steve Pearce RIGHT 0.347 0.317 0.174 31.5% 9.5% 18.5% 41.3% OF $3,100 OF $3,500 1B $6,900
7 Miguel Montero LEFT 0.292 0.278 0.139 29.8% 10.1% 20.9% 43.6% C $2,400 C $2,900 C $5,700
8 Kevin Pillar RIGHT 0.276 0.296 0.129 26.1% 5.4% 15.5% 46.3% OF $2,700 OF $3,400 CF $6,800
9 Ryan Goins LEFT 0.262 0.269 0.124 27.3% 7.3% 18.2% 46.5% SS $2,400 2B/SS $2,400 2B $4,800

Elite Plays – Kendrys Morales

Secondary Plays – Nori Aoki, Josh Donaldson, Jose Bautista

Stackability – ORANGE / YELLOW

Tampa Bay

Of the two offenses in this game, I’m more likely to load up on the Rays than I am the Blue Jays. I always give them a boost when facing a low strikeout pitcher because when they put the ball in play, they tend to rack up extra-base hits. Over the last two seasons, Tom Koehler has allowed a .364 xwOBA, a 32% hard contact rate, and a 14% walk rate to left-handed hitters. Kevin Kiermaier, Lucas Duda, Logan Morrison, and Corey Dickerson all bat from the left side and all have decent power numbers against right-handed pitching this season.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

# Player Bats wOBA xwOBA ISO HC% BB% K% GB% FD Pos. FD Sal. DK Pos. DK Sal. FDRFT Pos. FDRFT Sal.
1 Kevin Kiermaier LEFT 0.346 0.275 0.178 32.5% 9.1% 20.6% 47.9% OF $3,100 OF $4,100 CF $8,100
2 Lucas Duda LEFT 0.375 0.383 0.288 44.1% 14.1% 24.2% 27.4% 1B $3,500 1B $3,600 1B $7,200
3 Evan Longoria RIGHT 0.332 0.318 0.176 31.4% 5.6% 14.1% 43.1% 3B $2,700 3B $3,600 3B $7,200
4 Logan Morrison LEFT 0.364 0.373 0.281 39.6% 13.8% 24.0% 32.4% 1B $2,800 1B $3,600 1B $7,200
5 Steve Souza RIGHT 0.381 0.370 0.293 38.8% 12.7% 29.3% 39.2% OF $3,500 OF $3,700 RF $7,200
6 Corey Dickerson LEFT 0.340 0.316 0.221 36.3% 6.2% 23.1% 39.2% OF $3,000 OF $3,500 LF $6,900
7 Wilson Ramos RIGHT 0.253 0.310 0.149 34.3% 5.3% 22.1% 43.3% C $2,700 C $3,300 C $6,400
8 Brad Miller LEFT 0.288 0.317 0.106 34.1% 19.8% 27.0% 53.2% 2B $2,500 2B $2,400 2B $4,800
9 Adeiny Hechavarria RIGHT 0.239 0.262 0.060 28.6% 2.9% 20.2% 49.6% SS $2,500 SS $2,900 SS $5,600

Elite Plays – Kevin Kiermaier, Lucas Duda, Logan Morrison

Secondary Plays – Evan Longoria, Steve Souza, Corey Dickerson

Stackability – YELLOW

Colorado at Kansas City – 2:15 PM ET

Colorado Kansas City
Article Image German Marquez Article Image Jake Junis
RIGHT RIGHT
Vegas Moneyline Vegas Over/Under
KC -110 9.0
Stats wOBA xwOBA HC% BB% K% GB% Stats wOBA xwOBA HC% BB% K% GB%
SP vs. Left (2016-17) 0.320 0.308 31.3% 8.3% 19.1% 46.9% SP vs. Left (2016-17) 0.331 0.336 38.0% 6.6% 17.0% 46.8%
SP vs. Right (2016-17) 0.344 0.329 38.3% 6.2% 22.9% 41.3% SP vs. Right (2016-17) 0.348 0.355 39.5% 8.0% 19.2% 28.2%

Pitcher Grind Down

German Marquez
Article Image FanDuel DraftKings FantasyDraft
Salary: $7,200 Salary: $7,600 Salary: $15,000
Salary Rank: 13 of 30 Salary Rank: 19 of 30 Salary Rank: 13 of 30
Stats Starts SIERA ERA K% BB% GB% HC% SC%
2016 3 3.97 5.23 15.3% 6.1% 54.9% 29.7% 13.5%
2017 21 4.24 4.24 22.1% 7.4% 42.0% 35.8% 15.9%
L30 6 3.82 4.00 25.0% 6.8% 40.8% 33.3% 19.2%

Marquez comes into today’s start in good form, posting a 3.82 SIERA with a strikeout rate of 25%. He isn’t necessarily a fly-ball pitcher, but he has a below-average ground ball rate on the season. If we know anything about Kauffman Stadium, it’s that it helps fly-ball pitchers because it’s one of the toughest ballparks to hit home runs in. I’m typically not a big fan of targeting pitchers against the low-strikeout Royals, but we have limited options here in the early slate.

Quick Breakdown: Marquez is viable as an SP2 in the early slate, although I slightly prefer the man pitching opposite him.

Jake Junis
Article Image FanDuel DraftKings FantasyDraft
Salary: $6,600 Salary: $6,600 Salary: $13,200
Salary Rank: 16 of 30 Salary Rank: 21 of 30 Salary Rank: 15 of 30
Stats Starts SIERA ERA K% BB% GB% HC% SC%
2017 8 4.80 4.99 18.2% 7.4% 37.0% 38.8% 15.2%
L30 2 4.07 3.63 20.3% 1.5% 31.4% 27.5% 15.7%

Junis is a talented young rookie that is only making his ninth career major league start. His results thus far don’t jump off the page at us, but he’s shown good command, which is always nice to see from a young pitcher. In 12 Triple-A outings this year, he owns a 3.13 FIP with a strikeout rate of 30% and a walk rate of only 5%. Clearly, he has upside. I’m more than willing to take a flier on him today against the Rockies, who have struggled against right-handed pitching on the road this season.

Quick Breakdown: Junis has a wide range of potential outcomes, but he’s still my favorite SP2 in the early slate.

Batter Grind Down

Colorado

In short slates, we have to take stands in certain matchups. One of the stands that I’m taking is against the Rockies’ offense. Jake Junis has a ton of promise and he’s pitching at home, which is always a boost for a young pitcher. Meanwhile, the Rockies are playing on the road in a bad hitter’s park. Charlie Blackmon and Nolan Arenado remain viable one-off targets, but I plan to have more Junis shares than Rockies’ shares in this early slate.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

# Player Bats wOBA xwOBA ISO HC% BB% K% GB% FD Pos. FD Sal. DK Pos. DK Sal. FDRFT Pos. FDRFT Sal.
1 Charlie Blackmon LEFT 0.423 0.367 0.301 39.5% 9.4% 20.7% 36.3% OF $4,200 OF $5,600 CF $10,800
2 DJ LeMahieu RIGHT 0.312 0.321 0.060 27.6% 7.7% 13.6% 57.2% 2B $3,000 2B $3,900 2B $7,600
3 Nolan Arenado RIGHT 0.356 0.331 0.234 36.2% 8.1% 17.9% 37.0% 3B $4,300 3B $5,400 3B $10,500
4 Gerardo Parra LEFT 0.379 0.322 0.206 41.2% 4.5% 14.5% 47.1% OF $3,300 OF $4,300 LF $8,400
5 Mark Reynolds RIGHT 0.386 0.334 0.248 35.2% 10.2% 27.4% 41.8% 1B $3,100 1B $4,200 1B $8,100
6 Carlos Gonzalez LEFT 0.299 0.296 0.132 27.9% 10.6% 20.0% 45.8% OF $2,700 OF $3,700 RF $7,200
7 Jonathan Lucroy RIGHT 0.302 0.311 0.096 22.5% 7.4% 11.0% 52.3% C $2,400 C $3,500 C $6,900
8 Raimel Tapia LEFT 0.336 0.258 0.130 21.3% 6.0% 18.0% 41.1% OF $2,100 OF $3,200 LF $6,400
9 Trevor Story RIGHT 0.267 0.249 0.137 32.5% 8.7% 36.1% 36.0% SS $2,400 SS $3,600 SS $7,200

Elite Plays – None

Secondary Plays – Charlie Blackmon, Nolan Arenado

Stackability – ORANGE

Kansas City

The Royals are back to being a scrappy offense that doesn’t strikeout, but they still lack upside in their lineup. Today’s matchup against German Marquez is mediocre at best. In terms of splits, give an edge to those that can hit from the right side of the plate. Since the start of last season, Marquez has had significant reverse-splits, allowing a .329 xwOBA and a 38% hard contact rate to right-handed hitters.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

# Player Bats wOBA xwOBA ISO HC% BB% K% GB% FD Pos. FD Sal. DK Pos. DK Sal. FDRFT Pos. FDRFT Sal.
1 Whit Merrifield RIGHT 0.312 0.297 0.160 28.9% 3.7% 13.8% 36.0% 2B $3,500 2B $3,900 IF/OF $7,800
2 Lorenzo Cain RIGHT 0.353 0.330 0.133 31.6% 8.2% 17.6% 44.4% OF $3,600 OF $3,900 CF $7,800
3 Melky Cabrera SWITCH 0.332 0.345 0.129 30.1% 6.6% 11.6% 51.0% OF $3,200 OF $3,700 LF $7,200
4 Eric Hosmer LEFT 0.390 0.383 0.204 33.9% 11.0% 15.5% 50.8% 1B $3,700 1B $4,300 1B $8,400
5 Salvador Perez RIGHT 0.352 0.345 0.243 38.5% 3.3% 19.3% 31.2% C $3,100 C $3,400 C $6,800
6 Mike Moustakas LEFT 0.385 0.367 0.310 36.3% 6.1% 15.5% 30.0% 3B $3,800 3B $4,000 3B $7,800
7 Brandon Moss LEFT 0.282 0.311 0.218 34.5% 9.8% 33.5% 31.7% OF $2,200 OF $3,100 IF/OF $6,000
8 Alcides Escobar RIGHT 0.241 0.247 0.079 26.2% 1.9% 18.9% 43.1% SS $2,600 SS $3,300 SS $6,400
9 Alex Gordon LEFT 0.250 0.284 0.104 32.7% 7.5% 24.1% 40.3% OF $2,000 OF $2,500 LF $4,800

Elite Plays – Salvador Perez

Secondary Plays – Whit Merrifield, Eric Hosmer, Mike Moustakas

Stackability – ORANGE / YELLOW

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About the Author

Notorious
Derek Farnsworth (Notorious)

Derek Farnsworth (aka Notorious) is a lead RotoGrinders Expert and one of the most recognizable names and faces in all of DFS. Before joining the RotoGrinders team, Derek received a Master’s Degree from the University of Utah. When he’s not busy providing content, he’s dominating the DFS industry as evidenced by his consistent top rankings in several sports and multiple Live Final appearances. Noto provides expert NBA, NFL, MLB, and PGA analysis for RotoGrinders Premium members on a daily basis and has also been nominated for five different Fantasy Sports Writer’s Association (FSWA) awards. Follow Noto on Twitter – @RG_Notorious