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MLB Grind Down: Thursday, May 17th

by Derek Farnsworth (Notorious) Last Updated 2018-05-17 19:48:43

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The RotoGrinders MLB Grind Down will give you an in-depth analysis into the upcoming MLB schedule. This article will break down the numbers for every single game and give you analysis on which trends you can exploit. While matchups are a major factor in daily fantasy baseball, there are plenty of other factors to consider such as injuries, weather, and salaries.

The analysis should point you in the right direction, but it is still up to you to decipher the information and make your own selections. No sport has more variance than baseball. The best choice is not always the right choice but following the trends will win you money over time.

Note: As always, if you want to try a new DFS site, be sure to click through a RotoGrinders link and use our DraftKings promo code, FanDuel promo code, and FantasyDraft promo code to receive the best perks in the industry.

Stackability Rating System:

GREEN – A viable full stack in cash games and GPPs.
YELLOW – A viable mini-stack in cash games and full stack in GPPs.
ORANGE – A viable stack in large field GPPs.
RED – Not a recommended stack for cash games or GPPs.

Implied Run Totals

Ballpark Ratings

San Diego at Pittsburgh – 7:05 PM ET

San Diego Pittsburgh
sandiegomlb Eric Lauer pittsburghmlb Chad Kuhl
LEFT RIGHT
Vegas Moneyline Vegas Over/Under
PIT-135 8.0
Stats wOBA xwOBA HC% BB% K% GB% Stats wOBA xwOBA HC% BB% K% GB%
SP vs. Left (2016-17) 0.281 0.304 25.0% 6.3% 18.8% 54.5% SP vs. Left (2016-17) 0.407 0.444 39.7% 9.3% 20.9% 30.4%
SP vs. Right (2016-17) 0.483 0.429 51.0% 10.3% 17.7% 29.2% SP vs. Right (2016-17) 0.305 0.361 33.8% 7.6% 22.6% 39.7%

Pitcher Grind Down

Eric Lauer
eric-lauer-300x200 FanDuel DraftKings FantasyDraft
Salary: $6,100 Salary: $4,800 Salary: $9,400
Salary Rank: 19 of 20 Salary Rank: 18 of 20 Salary Rank: 18 of 20
Stats Starts SIERA ERA K% BB% GB% HC% SC%
2018 4 4.89 8.27 17.9% 9.5% 33.9% 45.9% 8.2%
L14 2 5.11 6.48 12.2% 4.9% 33.3% 50.0% 11.8%

Lauer pitched well in the minors, but there are growing pains when making the next step. In his first four major league starts, he owns a 4.89 SIERA with a below-average strikeout rate. When you are a fly-ball pitcher that gives up hard contact, you tend to struggle if you don’t have a high strikeout rate. The Pirates have struggled against southpaws this season, but are sizable favorites in a game that features a total of eight runs.

Quick Breakdown: Lauer doesn’t provide enough strikeout upside to warrant consideration.

Chad Kuhl
chad-kuhl-300x200 FanDuel DraftKings FantasyDraft
Salary: $7,700 Salary: $8,200 Salary: $16,100
Salary Rank: 9 of 20 Salary Rank: 4 of 20 Salary Rank: 4 of 20
Stats Starts SIERA ERA K% BB% GB% HC% SC%
2017 31 4.79 4.35 20.9% 10.6% 41.9% 36.1% 17.2%
2018 8 4.24 4.17 21.9% 8.3% 35.7% 36.4% 13.6%
L14 2 4.06 2.08 28.0% 12.0% 33.3% 40.0% 0.0%

Kuhl has shown a little more strikeout upside this season. In eight starts, he owns a 4.24 SIERA with a strikeout rate of 22%. While he’s a fly-ball pitcher with a high strikeout rate, this is is a pitcher-friendly ballpark and he’s facing one of the worst offenses in baseball. The projected lineup for the Padres has a .271 xwOBA with a strikeout rate of 30%. Kuhl isn’t the sexy play in this slate and he’s likely going to garner a lot of ownership, but rightly so. He’s affordable, he’s pitching at home, and he has the best matchup on the board.

Quick Breakdown: Kuhl is an elite play in all formats.

Batter Grind Down

San Diego

The Padres have two hitters with an xwOBA over .325 against right-handed pitching this season. I’d rather play a chalky Chad Kuhl in this ballpark than take a chance on a hitter from the Padres. Franchy Cordero is the one batter that deserves consideration here, as he owns a .413 xwOBA and a .223 ISO against righties this season.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

# Player Bats xwOBA L15 ISO HC% BB% K% GB% FD Pos. FD Sal. DK Pos. DK Sal. FDRFT Pos. FDRFT Sal.
1 Travis Jankowski LEFT 0.324 0.316 0.179 20.0% 15.2% 8.7% 65.7% OF $2,800 OF $3,900 CF $7,200
2 Eric Hosmer LEFT 0.349 0.384 0.214 31.6% 12.7% 22.9% 55.3% 1B $3,700 1B $3,800 1B $7,500
3 Jose Pirela RIGHT 0.257 0.281 0.064 36.0% 6.7% 26.7% 65.2% 2B $2,400 2B/OF $3,100 IF/OF $5,700
4 Franchy Cordero LEFT 0.413 0.294 0.227 54.2% 13.8% 31.0% 45.8% OF $3,200 OF $3,700 CF $7,700
5 Raffy Lopez LEFT 0.320 0.287 0.261 35.7% 14.8% 33.3% 28.6% C $2,400 C $3,000 C $5,700
6 Christian Villanueva RIGHT 0.255 0.176 0.088 24.5% 7.7% 29.7% 34.0% 3B $3,100 3B $3,400 3B $6,800
7 Freddy Galvis SWITCH 0.247 0.253 0.040 41.0% 11.1% 21.4% 52.0% SS $2,400 SS $2,700 SS $5,600
8 Manuel Margot RIGHT 0.261 0.214 0.093 31.9% 4.3% 20.2% 50.0% OF $2,300 OF $3,300 CF $6,700
9 Eric Lauer LEFT 0.016 0.050 0.000 0.0% 0.0% 75.0% 100.0% P $6,100 P $4,800 P $9,400

Elite Plays – None

Secondary Plays – Franchy Coredero

Stackability – RED

Pittsburgh

The Pirates have struggled against southpaws all season, but draw a favorable matchup against Eric Lauer. We are still dealing with a small sample size (four starts), but Lauer has allowed a .429 xwOBA and a 51% hard contact rate to right-handed hitters. The combination of this ballpark and the fact that the Pirates have a few too many lefties limits the appeal of a full stack, but Sean Rodriguez, Josh Bell, and Francisco Cervelli are all viable plays at their respective positions.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. LH Pitching)

# Player Bats xwOBA L15 ISO HC% BB% K% GB% FD Pos. FD Sal. DK Pos. DK Sal. FDRFT Pos. FDRFT Sal.
1 Adam Frazier LEFT 0.223 0.296 0.000 0.0% 8.3% 33.3% 57.1% OF $2,500 2B $3,200 IF/OF $6,300
2 Gregory Polanco LEFT 0.340 0.369 0.222 16.7% 12.1% 27.3% 22.2% OF $3,700 OF $4,500 RF $9,200
3 Sean Rodriguez RIGHT 0.469 0.349 0.421 41.7% 17.4% 30.4% 16.7% 2B $2,500 2B/OF $2,800 2B $5,900
4 Josh Bell SWITCH 0.315 0.374 0.179 23.8% 17.1% 22.9% 42.9% 1B $3,300 1B $4,000 1B $7,200
5 Corey Dickerson LEFT 0.310 0.341 0.083 26.3% 7.7% 19.2% 21.1% OF $3,700 OF $4,100 LF $8,500
6 Francisco Cervelli RIGHT 0.371 0.518 0.375 20.0% 15.8% 31.6% 20.0% C $3,100 C $3,900 C $7,400
7 Colin Moran LEFT 0.356 0.453 0.000 20.0% 25.0% 12.5% 80.0% 3B $2,800 3B $3,700 3B $7,500
8 Jordy Mercer RIGHT 0.330 0.341 0.069 26.9% 6.1% 12.1% 38.5% SS $2,500 SS $3,100 SS $5,700
9 Chad Kuhl RIGHT 0.152 0.048 0.000 0.0% 0.0% 16.7% 66.7% P $7,700 P $8,200 P $16,100

Elite Plays – Francisco Cervelli (DK)

Secondary Plays – Francisco Cervelli (FD), Sean Rodriguez, Josh Bell

Stackability – YELLOW

Oakland at Toronto – 7:07 PM ET

Oakland Toronto
oaklandmlb Andrew Triggs torontomlb Aaron Sanchez
RIGHT RIGHT
Vegas Moneyline Vegas Over/Under
TOR-122 9.5
Stats wOBA xwOBA HC% BB% K% GB% Stats wOBA xwOBA HC% BB% K% GB%
SP vs. Left (2016-17) 0.339 0.399 43.1% 11.0% 25.6% 42.0% SP vs. Left (2016-17) 0.395 0.363 31.5% 15.8% 10.9% 53.4%
SP vs. Right (2016-17) 0.314 0.340 37.3% 7.9% 23.6% 51.7% SP vs. Right (2016-17) 0.276 0.388 34.3% 8.6% 20.0% 55.7%

Pitcher Grind Down

Andrew Triggs
andrew-triggs-300x200 FanDuel DraftKings FantasyDraft
Salary: $7,800 Salary: $6,800 Salary: $13,800
Salary Rank: 8 of 20 Salary Rank: 13 of 20 Salary Rank: 12 of 20
Stats Starts SIERA ERA K% BB% GB% HC% SC%
2017 12 4.54 4.27 17.7% 6.7% 49.8% 26.7% 15.2%
2018 8 3.99 5.31 24.6% 9.4% 47.2% 40.0% 16.4%
L14 2 3.11 5.56 32.6% 8.7% 40.7% 48.2% 3.7%

Triggs has shown some strikeout upside this season. In eight starts, he has a SIERA under four with a strikeout rate of 25%. If you take the name away and look strictly at the numbers, he would likely garner more ownership on a regular basis. Triggs two biggest weaknesses are allowing hard contact and his inability to hold runners. He has allowed a 1.73 stolen bases per nine innings over the last two seasons, which is easily the highest mark of the slate.

Quick Breakdown: Triggs is a fade on the road against the Blue Jays.

Aaron Sanchez
aaron-sanchez-300x200 FanDuel DraftKings FantasyDraft
Salary: $6,700 Salary: $5,700 Salary: $11,300
Salary Rank: 16 of 20 Salary Rank: 16 of 20 Salary Rank: 16 of 20
Stats Starts SIERA ERA K% BB% GB% HC% SC%
2017 8 5.62 4.25 14.4% 12.0% 47.5% 29.5% 21.3%
2018 8 5.19 4.08 15.5% 12.1% 54.5% 32.9% 20.3%
L14 2 5.80 4.15 15.9% 15.9% 50.0% 40.0% 23.3%

Sanchez has struggled to find form ever since suffering a few different injuries. In eight starts this season, he owns a 5.19 SIERA with a low strikeout rate and a high walk rate. His biggest strength at this point is his ground ball rate, which is negated in a matchup against the A’s. As you can see from the projected lineup below, the A’s offense is loaded with fly ball hitters.

Quick Breakdown: Sanchez is an easy fade in my eyes. I would much rather play Kuhl or Weaver at similar price points.

Batter Grind Down

Oakland

I can’t think of a better time to stack the A’s. They are underdogs on the road, which will keep ownership down. If we ignore the betting markets and look strictly at the stats, this is a tremendous matchup for Oakland. They are facing a ground ball pitcher (A’s have a high fly ball rate) in a hitter-friendly ballpark. This lineup is loaded with left and right-handed power and we know they are capable of hitting multiple home runs. I am fully endorsing an A’s stack tonight.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

# Player Bats xwOBA L15 ISO HC% BB% K% GB% FD Pos. FD Sal. DK Pos. DK Sal. FDRFT Pos. FDRFT Sal.
1 Marcus Semien RIGHT 0.298 0.276 0.081 28.4% 6.8% 21.8% 47.4% SS $3,100 SS $3,500 SS $6,400
2 Matt Joyce LEFT 0.365 0.348 0.204 36.0% 18.1% 22.8% 33.3% OF $2,600 OF $3,000 RF $5,700
3 Jed Lowrie SWITCH 0.385 0.354 0.273 38.6% 11.2% 18.4% 37.5% 2B $3,500 2B $4,100 2B $8,300
4 Khris Davis RIGHT 0.433 0.400 0.295 50.6% 8.1% 23.5% 36.3% OF $3,500 OF $3,900 LF $7,200
5 Matt Olson LEFT 0.384 0.386 0.221 51.6% 11.8% 33.6% 32.8% 1B $2,900 1B $3,600 IF/OF $7,500
6 Matt Chapman RIGHT 0.369 0.301 0.205 38.8% 11.7% 25.0% 39.2% 3B $3,000 3B $3,600 3B $7,400
7 Mark Canha RIGHT 0.318 0.338 0.127 38.6% 10.0% 27.1% 36.4% OF $2,800 OF $3,300 IF/OF $6,700
8 Stephen Piscotty RIGHT 0.371 0.434 0.153 41.8% 6.4% 21.3% 47.8% OF $2,400 OF $3,200 RF $6,500
9 Jonathan Lucroy RIGHT 0.331 0.331 0.107 40.9% 6.0% 12.0% 40.0% C $2,300 C $3,200 C $6,400

Elite Plays – Matt Joyce, Jed Lowrie, Matt Olson

Secondary Plays – Marcus Semien, Khris Davis, Matt Chapman

Stackability – GREEN

Toronto

The Blue Jays are almost always viable at home, especially against a pitcher that gives up a lot of home runs and stolen bases. I prefer the A’s over the Blue Jays, but that doesn’t mean that I won’t have exposure to both offenses. On the season, Andrew Triggs has allowed a .399 xwOBA to lefties and a .340 xwOBA to righties. The one through six hitters are all solid options in tonight’s nine-game slate, but I’m most interested in Curtis Granderson, Justin Smoak, and Teoscar Hernandez.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

# Player Bats xwOBA L15 ISO HC% BB% K% GB% FD Pos. FD Sal. DK Pos. DK Sal. FDRFT Pos. FDRFT Sal.
1 Curtis Granderson LEFT 0.359 0.353 0.213 39.6% 18.8% 31.7% 33.3% OF $2,500 OF $3,700 CF $7,300
2 Josh Donaldson RIGHT 0.314 0.264 0.246 32.6% 13.2% 26.3% 45.7% 3B $4,000 3B $4,200 3B $8,200
3 Justin Smoak SWITCH 0.388 0.339 0.213 38.1% 15.7% 25.0% 33.3% 1B $3,400 1B $3,600 1B $7,400
4 Teoscar Hernandez RIGHT 0.457 0.366 0.321 46.9% 4.6% 20.7% 34.4% OF $3,200 OF $3,800 CF $7,700
5 Yangervis Solarte SWITCH 0.358 0.322 0.206 31.3% 8.8% 17.7% 39.8% 3B $3,200 2B/3B $3,400 2B $6,300
6 Kevin Pillar RIGHT 0.392 0.335 0.204 34.8% 6.5% 17.9% 38.0% OF $2,900 OF $3,700 CF $7,200
7 Russell Martin RIGHT 0.315 0.309 0.243 34.0% 11.8% 24.7% 52.8% C $2,500 C $3,400 C $6,900
8 Kendrys Morales SWITCH 0.291 0.351 0.113 30.4% 11.4% 22.9% 52.2% 1B $2,300 1B $2,900 1B $5,600
9 Richard Urena SWITCH 0.183 0.152 0.000 25.0% 0.0% 50.0% 50.0% SS $2,000 SS $2,800 SS $5,500

Elite Plays – Curtis Granderson, Justin Smoak, Teoscar Hernandez

Secondary Plays – Josh Donaldson, Yangervis Solarte, Kevin Pillar

Stackability – YELLOW / GREEN

Baltimore at Boston – 7:10 PM ET

Baltimore Boston
baltimoremlb Kevin Gausman bostonmlb David Price
RIGHT LEFT
Vegas Moneyline Vegas Over/Under
BOS-160 9.5
Stats wOBA xwOBA HC% BB% K% GB% Stats wOBA xwOBA HC% BB% K% GB%
SP vs. Left (2016-17) 0.324 0.327 29.4% 10.4% 18.8% 39.4% SP vs. Left (2016-17) 0.274 0.332 20.0% 3.3% 10.0% 44.0%
SP vs. Right (2016-17) 0.291 0.325 37.1% 1.7% 20.7% 49.4% SP vs. Right (2016-17) 0.342 0.357 37.4% 11.8% 23.0% 42.4%

Pitcher Grind Down

Kevin Gausman
kevin-gausman-300x200 FanDuel DraftKings FantasyDraft
Salary: $8,600 Salary: $7,900 Salary: $14,900
Salary Rank: 3 of 20 Salary Rank: 6 of 20 Salary Rank: 7 of 20
Stats Starts SIERA ERA K% BB% GB% HC% SC%
2017 34 4.41 4.68 21.9% 8.7% 42.7% 32.3% 18.2%
2018 8 4.07 3.18 19.8% 5.7% 45.2% 33.8% 17.8%
L14 2 3.71 1.10 19.1% 3.2% 54.2% 32.7% 20.4%

Gausman has a low ERA this season, but he’s been a bit lucky in terms of his BABIP (.275) and left on-base percentage (87%). Something tells me his luck might run out in a matchup against the Red Sox in Fenway. For what it’s worth, he does have a great track record against Boston, holding their current roster to a .286 wOBA with 43 strikeouts in 206 plate appearances.

Quick Breakdown: Just because Gausman has pitched well against Boston in the past, it doesn’t mean he’ll do it again.

David Price
david-price-300x200 FanDuel DraftKings FantasyDraft
Salary: $7,400 Salary: $8,400 Salary: $16,400
Salary Rank: 13 of 20 Salary Rank: 3 of 20 Salary Rank: 3 of 20
Stats Starts SIERA ERA K% BB% GB% HC% SC%
2017 11 4.05 3.38 24.0% 7.6% 39.9% 32.9% 20.7%
2018 8 4.59 4.89 20.9% 10.4% 42.7% 33.9% 22.6%
L14 2 4.48 9.00 22.7% 11.4% 39.3% 28.6% 25.0%

Price is no longer an elite pitcher. In eight starts this season, he owns a 4.59 SIERA with a strikeout rate of 21% and a walk rate of 10%. The Orioles have some strikeouts in their lineup, but they also have plenty of right-handed power. I’m expecting a high-scoring game between these two rivals and will be avoiding both of the starters.

Quick Breakdown: Price hasn’t flashed enough form to warrant consideration, especially in a matchup against the Orioles in this ballpark.

Batter Grind Down

Baltimore

The Orioles are playing in one of the best ballparks in baseball for offensive production and are facing a southpaw that has struggled with right-handed hitters. On the season, David Price has allowed a .357 xwOBA and a 37% hard contact rate to righties. An Orioles’ stack is viable and as always, road teams get a small boost since they are guaranteed ninth-inning at-bats. Trey Mancini, Manny Machado, Jonathan Schoop, and Mark Trumbo all bat from the right side and all have good numbers against lefties.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. LH Pitching)

# Player Bats xwOBA L15 ISO HC% BB% K% GB% FD Pos. FD Sal. DK Pos. DK Sal. FDRFT Pos. FDRFT Sal.
1 Trey Mancini RIGHT 0.342 0.431 0.267 28.6% 10.0% 20.0% 62.9% OF $3,500 1B/OF $4,300 IF/OF $8,600
2 Adam Jones RIGHT 0.290 0.342 0.023 33.3% 2.2% 17.8% 47.2% OF $3,200 OF $3,700 CF $7,500
3 Manny Machado RIGHT 0.442 0.391 0.306 37.1% 14.0% 4.7% 31.4% SS $4,900 SS $5,600 3B $10,800
4 Jonathan Schoop RIGHT 0.365 0.319 0.000 33.3% 8.3% 12.5% 33.3% 2B $3,700 2B $4,300 2B $8,500
5 Mark Trumbo RIGHT 0.331 0.384 0.071 27.3% 0.0% 21.4% 36.4% OF $3,300 1B $3,900 DH $7,200
6 Chris Davis LEFT 0.303 0.315 0.290 46.7% 8.6% 45.7% 33.3% 1B $2,500 1B $3,400 IF/OF $6,800
7 Danny Valencia RIGHT 0.423 0.434 0.286 31.0% 14.6% 14.6% 41.4% 3B $2,900 3B $3,800 3B $7,300
8 Craig Gentry RIGHT 0.218 0.254 0.080 27.8% 10.7% 25.0% 58.8% OF $2,200 OF $2,500 LF $4,600
9 Chance Sisco LEFT 0.541 0.288 0.600 50.0% 0.0% 60.0% 0.0% C $2,100 C $3,400 C $6,300

Elite Plays – Trey Mancini, Manny Machado, Jonathan Schoop, Mark Trumbo

Secondary Plays – Adam Jones, Danny Valencia

Stackability – YELLOW / GREEN

Boston

The Red Sox lineup has struggled with Kevin Gausman with the exception of two hitters — Mookie Betts and J.D. Martinez. Betts is 12-for-29 with three home runs and Martinez is 4-for-7. I don’t like to rely too heavily on BvP, but when they match the rest of the statistics, we might as well. Gausman has historically been a reverse-splits pitcher and he has allowed a 37% hard contact rate to right-handed hitters. While the Red Sox aren’t my favorite stack of the slate, they are viable if you are building multiple tournament lineups.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

# Player Bats xwOBA L15 ISO HC% BB% K% GB% FD Pos. FD Sal. DK Pos. DK Sal. FDRFT Pos. FDRFT Sal.
1 Mookie Betts RIGHT 0.511 0.483 0.318 48.4% 10.2% 14.2% 31.2% OF $5,300 OF $5,800 RF $10,900
2 Andrew Benintendi LEFT 0.358 0.304 0.200 27.6% 11.6% 12.3% 36.2% OF $4,500 OF $4,800 LF $9,200
3 Hanley Ramirez RIGHT 0.369 0.314 0.167 34.4% 7.8% 18.0% 46.2% 1B $4,100 1B $4,100 1B $8,200
4 J.D. Martinez RIGHT 0.477 0.479 0.352 55.0% 9.4% 23.9% 42.9% OF $4,900 OF $5,200 RF $9,900
5 Xander Bogaerts RIGHT 0.401 0.330 0.274 44.9% 2.2% 18.0% 46.4% SS $3,700 SS $4,300 SS $8,000
6 Mitch Moreland LEFT 0.488 0.445 0.319 36.7% 12.0% 15.7% 40.0% 1B $3,400 1B $4,600 1B $9,200
7 Eduardo Nunez RIGHT 0.246 0.283 0.157 23.9% 2.7% 18.8% 47.7% 2B $2,800 2B/SS $3,400 3B $6,800
8 Rafael Devers LEFT 0.342 0.323 0.167 47.1% 6.9% 28.2% 46.4% 3B $3,500 3B $3,900 3B $7,800
9 Christian Vazquez RIGHT 0.254 0.214 0.024 21.1% 3.3% 15.4% 44.3% C $2,000 C $2,800 C $5,400

Elite Plays – Mookie Betts, J.D. Martinez, Xander Bogaerts

Secondary Plays – Andrew Benintendi, Hanley Ramirez, Mitch Moreland

Stackability – YELLOW / GREEN

Philadelphia at St. Louis – 7:15 PM ET

Philadelphia St. Louis
philadelphiamlb Vince Velasquez stlouismlb Luke Weaver
RIGHT RIGHT
Vegas Moneyline Vegas Over/Under
STL-138 8.5
Stats wOBA xwOBA HC% BB% K% GB% Stats wOBA xwOBA HC% BB% K% GB%
SP vs. Left (2016-17) 0.417 0.333 29.0% 5.9% 25.7% 32.4% SP vs. Left (2016-17) 0.332 0.333 24.6% 10.7% 16.7% 40.0%
SP vs. Right (2016-17) 0.229 0.233 18.2% 10.4% 31.2% 33.3% SP vs. Right (2016-17) 0.259 0.295 27.9% 7.7% 24.2% 45.8%

Pitcher Grind Down

Vince Velasquez
vincent-velasquez-300x200 FanDuel DraftKings FantasyDraft
Salary: $8,300 Salary: $7,300 Salary: $14,800
Salary Rank: 6 of 20 Salary Rank: 10 of 20 Salary Rank: 9 of 20
Stats Starts SIERA ERA K% BB% GB% HC% SC%
2017 15 4.73 5.13 21.6% 10.8% 42.5% 38.1% 15.2%
2018 8 3.55 5.05 28.1% 7.9% 32.7% 24.8% 16.8%
L14 2 3.23 3.27 35.6% 11.1% 27.3% 26.1% 21.7%

Despite two capable offenses, this is a good game to target when it comes to pitching. Velasquez may have an ERA over five, but his peripheral stats suggest some positive regression. In eight starts, he owns a 3.55 SIERA with a strikeout rate of 28%. He has done a great job of limiting hard contact and he has been dominant against right-handed hitters. The Cardinals have no choice but to roll out a right-handed heavy lineup and both of their lefties (Matt Carpenter and Dexter Fowler) have been in major slumps to start the season.

Quick Breakdown: Velasquez is an excellent tournament play that should garner very little ownership.

Luke Weaver
luke-weaver-300x200 FanDuel DraftKings FantasyDraft
Salary: $6,200 Salary: $8,000 Salary: $15,300
Salary Rank: 18 of 20 Salary Rank: 5 of 20 Salary Rank: 6 of 20
Stats Starts SIERA ERA K% BB% GB% HC% SC%
2017 10 3.29 3.88 28.6% 6.8% 49.4% 25.9% 19.1%
2018 8 4.45 4.91 20.6% 9.1% 42.9% 26.2% 23.0%
L14 2 4.63 4.00 15.0% 5.0% 41.9% 21.9% 37.5%

Weaver looks broken on paper, but he is still generating a lot of ground balls and a lot of soft contact. The main difference this season has been a lack of strikeouts. There hasn’t been a big difference in his velocity, pitch selection, or swinging strike rate, so I’m not overly concerned just yet. He draws a strikeout-friendly matchup against the Phillies, whose projected lineup has a 26% k-rate against right-handed pitching. I’m a glass half-full kind of guy, so I see this as an opportunity to play Weaver at a discounted price point.

Quick Breakdown: Weaver is an elite play in all formats.

Batter Grind Down

Philadelphia

As mentioned above, this is better game to target for the pitchers than it is for the hitters. Luke Weaver had a high strikeout rate a season ago and is still generating a high ground ball rate and a lot of soft contact. While he has struggled a bit against left-handed hitters this season, this isn’t a great ballpark for offensive production. Outside of a Carlos Santana one-off, the Phillies can be avoided in both cash games and tournaments.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

# Player Bats xwOBA L15 ISO HC% BB% K% GB% FD Pos. FD Sal. DK Pos. DK Sal. FDRFT Pos. FDRFT Sal.
1 Cesar Hernandez SWITCH 0.333 0.367 0.177 30.4% 13.6% 26.5% 44.7% 2B $3,800 2B $4,000 2B $7,500
2 Rhys Hoskins RIGHT 0.408 0.364 0.228 37.9% 14.8% 30.3% 25.8% OF $4,000 OF $4,600 IF/OF $9,200
3 Odubel Herrera LEFT 0.388 0.474 0.182 26.2% 10.6% 14.2% 44.0% OF $3,900 OF $4,700 IF/OF $9,400
4 Carlos Santana SWITCH 0.395 0.422 0.252 34.8% 15.2% 13.6% 36.4% 1B $4,000 1B $4,700 1B $9,400
5 Nick Williams LEFT 0.351 0.506 0.138 26.1% 10.8% 25.7% 50.0% OF $2,400 OF $2,800 LF $5,600
6 Maikel Franco RIGHT 0.370 0.405 0.217 24.7% 6.1% 16.2% 51.9% 3B $3,500 3B $4,300 3B $8,200
7 Scott Kingery RIGHT 0.326 0.244 0.119 30.7% 6.5% 24.7% 33.9% SS $2,300 3B/SS $3,300 SS $7,000
8 Jorge Alfaro RIGHT 0.285 0.313 0.136 38.2% 4.3% 45.7% 58.8% C $2,200 C $3,200 C $6,800
9 Vince Velasquez RIGHT 0.139 0.260 0.000 20.0% 0.0% 37.5% 100.0% P $8,300 P $7,300 P $14,800

Elite Plays – None

Secondary Plays – Carlos Santana (GPP)

Stackability – ORANGE

St. Louis

The Cardinals aren’t equipped for a matchup against Vince Velasquez. He has held right-handed hitters to a .233 xwOBA with a 31% strikeout rate this season. The Cardinals only have two lefties in their projected lineup and both of them are off to slow starts this season (bad luck certainly hasn’t helped). I’d rather take a shot on Velasquez, but Matt Carpenter and Dexter Fowler are both viable one-off targets in tournaments.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

# Player Bats xwOBA L15 ISO HC% BB% K% GB% FD Pos. FD Sal. DK Pos. DK Sal. FDRFT Pos. FDRFT Sal.
1 Tommy Pham RIGHT 0.400 0.439 0.242 44.8% 15.2% 25.0% 43.3% OF $3,700 OF $5,000 CF $10,200
2 Paul DeJong RIGHT 0.377 0.394 0.207 42.3% 7.8% 29.5% 28.2% SS $3,300 SS $4,000 SS $7,700
3 Jose Martinez RIGHT 0.441 0.402 0.165 38.2% 9.2% 11.5% 52.9% 1B $3,200 1B $3,400 IF/OF $6,600
4 Marcell Ozuna RIGHT 0.339 0.334 0.081 50.6% 3.9% 25.0% 46.2% OF $2,900 OF $3,600 LF $7,300
5 Jedd Gyorko RIGHT 0.321 0.360 0.103 34.6% 13.0% 28.3% 38.5% SS $2,600 3B $4,000 3B $7,500
6 Dexter Fowler SWITCH 0.306 0.264 0.176 31.3% 12.6% 16.8% 36.1% OF $2,800 OF $3,500 CF $6,700
7 Matt Carpenter LEFT 0.379 0.272 0.167 42.2% 14.7% 29.3% 25.4% 3B $2,900 2B/3B $3,500 3B $6,600
8 Carson Kelly RIGHT 0.412 0.278 0.000 55.6% 0.0% 0.0% 55.6% C $2,100 C $2,600 C $5,100
9 Luke Weaver RIGHT 0.133 0.190 0.000 0.0% 0.0% 54.5% 75.0% P $6,200 P $8,000 P $15,300

Elite Plays – None

Secondary Plays – Matt Carpenter, Dexter Fowler

Stackability – ORANGE

Chicago Cubs at Atlanta – 7:35 PM ET

Chicago Cubs Atlanta
cubsmlb Jon Lester atlantamlb Max Fried
LEFT LEFT
Vegas Moneyline Vegas Over/Under
ATL-102 8.5
Stats wOBA xwOBA HC% BB% K% GB% Stats wOBA xwOBA HC% BB% K% GB%
SP vs. Left (2016-17) 0.257 0.307 23.1% 5.6% 19.4% 45.8% SP vs. Left (2016-17) 0.607 0.281 66.7% 22.2% 44.4% 0.0%
SP vs. Right (2016-17) 0.324 0.383 36.9% 11.8% 19.1% 35.6% SP vs. Right (2016-17) 0.281 0.365 46.2% 5.9% 17.7% 41.7%

Pitcher Grind Down

Jon Lester
jon-lester-300x200 FanDuel DraftKings FantasyDraft
Salary: $8,400 Salary: $7,700 Salary: $15,800
Salary Rank: 5 of 20 Salary Rank: 7 of 20 Salary Rank: 5 of 20
Stats Starts SIERA ERA K% BB% GB% HC% SC%
2017 32 4.07 4.33 23.6% 7.9% 46.2% 28.1% 21.4%
2018 8 4.86 2.66 19.2% 10.6% 37.6% 34.1% 15.5%
L14 2 5.58 2.45 19.6% 15.2% 27.6% 43.3% 3.3%

Lester is one of the biggest pitching names of the slate, but his peripheral statistics suggest some serious regression. In eight starts, he owns a 4.86 SIERA with a strikeout rate of 19% and a walk rate of 11%. He’s one of the worst at holding runners and the Braves aren’t afraid to be aggressive on the base paths. DFS players are getting smarter and smarter every year, but I really hope this is a spot where Lester carries some ownership.

Quick Breakdown: Lester is an easy fade in all formats.

Max Fried
max-fried-300x200 FanDuel DraftKings FantasyDraft
Salary: $5,500 Salary: $4,000 Salary: $8,000
Salary Rank: 20 of 20 Salary Rank: 18 of 20 Salary Rank: 18 of 20
Stats Starts SIERA ERA K% BB% GB% HC% SC%
2017 4 4.13 3.81 18.2% 9.9% 65.1% 28.9% 20.5%
2018 0 3.75 6.00 26.9% 11.5% 33.3% 50.0% 6.3%
L14 0 2.63 3.00 33.3% 8.3% 42.9% 28.6% 14.3%

Mike Soroka was scratched from his start, so Fried will get the nod instead. He has yet to throw more than 47 pitches in any single outing this season, so this will likely end up being a bullpen start. Even if Fried wasn’t on a pitch count, he’d still be an easy fade against the Cubs.

Quick Breakdown: Avoid Fried in all formats.

Batter Grind Down

Chicago Cubs

The Cubs draw an exploitable matchup against Max Fried, who has allowed a .365 xwOBA and a 46% hard contact rate to right-handed hitters this season. While this isn’t the best ballpark for right-handed power, Kris Bryant is one of the best hitters in baseball against southpaws. Willson Contreras and Javier Baez also have good power numbers against lefties and I wouldn’t rule out Anthony Rizzo, as he’ll likely see a plate appearance or two against a righty.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. LH Pitching)

# Player Bats xwOBA L15 ISO HC% BB% K% GB% FD Pos. FD Sal. DK Pos. DK Sal. FDRFT Pos. FDRFT Sal.
1 Ben Zobrist SWITCH 0.396 0.336 0.061 41.4% 8.3% 11.1% 32.1% OF $2,700 2B/OF $3,500 IF/OF $6,600
2 Kris Bryant RIGHT 0.517 0.457 0.553 54.8% 7.3% 17.1% 16.1% 3B $4,900 3B $5,300 IF/OF $9,700
3 Anthony Rizzo LEFT 0.269 0.354 0.167 30.8% 5.0% 25.0% 24.0% 1B $4,300 1B $4,800 1B $9,100
4 Willson Contreras RIGHT 0.403 0.390 0.200 34.5% 14.6% 14.6% 44.8% C $3,500 C $4,400 IF/OF $8,600
5 Javier Baez RIGHT 0.380 0.372 0.244 36.4% 6.8% 18.2% 58.1% 2B $4,300 2B $4,600 2B $9,000
6 Kyle Schwarber LEFT 0.387 0.322 0.048 46.2% 19.2% 30.8% 53.8% OF $3,900 OF $4,100 IF/OF $8,400
7 Albert Almora RIGHT 0.324 0.310 0.216 25.7% 9.8% 4.9% 44.1% OF $3,100 OF $3,600 CF $7,300
8 Addison Russell RIGHT 0.304 0.267 0.189 30.0% 9.8% 17.1% 36.7% SS $3,300 SS $3,500 SS $6,800
9 Jon Lester LEFT 0.025 0.504 0.000 0.0% 0.0% 57.1% 0.0% P $8,400 P $7,700 P $15,800

Elite Plays – Kris Bryant, Willson Contreras, Javier Baez

Secondary Plays – Anthony Rizzo

Stackability – ORANGE / YELLOW

Atlanta

The Braves’ stack didn’t pay dividends last night, but I’ll be going right back to the well tonight. On the season, Jon Lester has allowed a .383 xwOBA and a 37% hard contact rate to right-handed hitters. The Braves’ offense has been red-hot at the plate and this is also one of the best stolen base matchups on the board. While I don’t love the idea of a full stack, the right-handed bats of Ozzie Albies, Ronald Acuna, and Tyler Flowers are all elite plays at their respective positions.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. LH Pitching)

# Player Bats xwOBA L15 ISO HC% BB% K% GB% FD Pos. FD Sal. DK Pos. DK Sal. FDRFT Pos. FDRFT Sal.
1 Ozzie Albies SWITCH 0.407 0.347 0.440 42.2% 1.9% 11.5% 35.6% 2B $4,700 2B $5,400 2B $10,900
2 Ronald Acuna RIGHT 0.375 0.333 0.241 38.1% 6.3% 25.0% 47.6% OF $4,100 OF $4,200 LF $8,200
3 Freddie Freeman LEFT 0.464 0.460 0.288 50.0% 14.3% 17.5% 38.1% 1B $4,700 1B $5,400 1B $11,000
4 Nick Markakis LEFT 0.359 0.398 0.183 36.0% 7.7% 15.4% 42.0% OF $3,800 OF $4,500 RF $9,400
5 Tyler Flowers RIGHT 0.489 0.417 0.333 57.1% 30.8% 15.4% 57.1% C $2,300 C $2,800 C $5,700
6 Ender Inciarte LEFT 0.264 0.284 0.023 29.4% 8.5% 19.1% 45.5% OF $3,600 OF $4,500 CF $8,900
7 Jose Bautista RIGHT 0.342 0.272 0.375 35.7% 20.0% 10.0% 14.3% 3B $2,900 3B/OF $3,700 IF/OF $7,500
8 Charlie Culberson RIGHT 0.278 0.311 0.130 31.6% 4.2% 16.7% 55.6% 3B $2,100 3B/SS $2,800 SS $5,700
9 Mike Soroka RIGHT 0.329 0.262 0.000 66.7% 0.0% 0.0% 66.7% P $7,600 P $6,700 P $12,900

Elite Plays – Ozzie Albies, Ronald Acuna, Tyler Flowers

Secondary Plays – Freddie Freeman, Nick Markakis

Stackability – YELLOW

Note: Unless noted, all statistics in the Grind Down are from the 2018 season.

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About the Author

Notorious
Derek Farnsworth (Notorious)

Derek Farnsworth (aka Notorious) is a lead RotoGrinders Expert and one of the most recognizable names and faces in all of DFS. Before joining the RotoGrinders team, Derek received a Master’s Degree from the University of Utah. When he’s not busy providing content, he’s dominating the DFS industry as evidenced by his consistent top rankings in several sports and multiple Live Final appearances. Noto provides expert NBA, NFL, MLB, and PGA analysis for RotoGrinders Premium members on a daily basis and has also been nominated for five different Fantasy Sports Writer’s Association (FSWA) awards. Follow Noto on X – @RG_Notorious