MLB Grind Down: Tuesday, August 14th

by Derek Farnsworth (Notorious) Last Updated 2018-08-14 19:28:07

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The RotoGrinders MLB Grind Down will give you an in-depth analysis into the upcoming MLB schedule. This article will break down the numbers for every single game and give you analysis on which trends you can exploit. While matchups are a major factor in daily fantasy baseball, there are plenty of other factors to consider such as injuries, weather, and salaries.

The analysis should point you in the right direction, but it is still up to you to decipher the information and make your own selections. No sport has more variance than baseball. The best choice is not always the right choice but following the trends will win you money over time.

Note: As always, if you want to try a new DFS site, be sure to click through a RotoGrinders link and use our DraftKings promo code, FanDuel promo code, and FantasyDraft promo code to receive the best perks in the industry.

Stackability Rating System:

GREEN – A viable full stack in cash games and GPPs.
YELLOW – A viable mini-stack in cash games and full stack in GPPs.
ORANGE – A viable stack in large field GPPs.
RED – Not a recommended stack for cash games or GPPs.

Implied Run Totals

Ballpark Ratings

Boston at Philadelphia – 7:05 PM ET

Stats	wOBA	xwOBA	HC%	HR/9	K%	GB%	Stats	wOBA	xwOBA	HC%	HR/9	K%	GB%
Boston								Philadelphia
			Rick Porcello							Nick Pivetta
			RIGHT							RIGHT
			Vegas Moneyline							Vegas Over/Under
			BOS-117							9.0
SP vs. Left (2016-17)	0.304	0.348	42.0%	1.38	26.6%	35.0%	SP vs. Left (2016-17)	0.363	0.346	36.0%	1.39	26.6%	40.1%
SP vs. Right (2016-17)	0.299	0.307	27.4%	0.91	19.8%	52.2%	SP vs. Right (2016-17)	0.280	0.266	31.2%	1.19	31.3%	50.0%

Pitcher Grind Down

	Stats	Starts	SIERA	ERA	K%	BB%	GB%	HC%	SC%	aFV	SwS%
Rick Porcello
	FanDuel				DraftKings				FantasyDraft
	Salary:			$9,000	Salary:			$9,200	Salary:		$18,000
	Salary Rank:			5 of 28	Salary Rank:			6 of 28	Salary Rank:		6 of 28
	2017	33	4.28	4.65	20.5%	5.4%	39.2%	38.3%	17.1%	91.1	9.4%
	2018	24	3.80	4.17	22.8%	5.9%	45.0%	33.6%	20.4%	90.3	8.4%
	L14	2	3.29	5.54	28.0%	6.0%	43.8%	53.1%	12.5%	90.5	7.9%

There are 14 games on the schedule tonight, so plenty of good tournaments across the DFS industry. We start with the Red Sox and Phillies, who are squaring off in a home run-friendly ballpark. Porcello isn’t as bad as many make him out to be and he is consistently under-owned when it comes to DFS. In 24 starts this season, he owns a 3.80 SIERA with a strikeout rate of 23%. Even though I don’t love the ballpark, he has a mediocre ground ball rate and is facing a Phillies’ offense that strikes out at a high clip against right-handed pitching. Porcello isn’t a core play by any means, but he’s viable if you are making a few different tournament lineups.

Quick Breakdown: Porcello is viable as an SP2 in tournaments.

	Stats	Starts	SIERA	ERA	K%	BB%	GB%	HC%	SC%	aFV	SwS%
Nick Pivetta
	FanDuel				DraftKings				FantasyDraft
	Salary:			$8,000	Salary:			$7,600	Salary:		$14,900
	Salary Rank:			10 of 28	Salary Rank:			12 of 28	Salary Rank:		12 of 28
	2017	26	4.32	6.02	24.0%	9.8%	43.8%	35.5%	15.9%	94.4	8.7%
	2018	23	3.21	4.51	29.1%	6.5%	45.3%	33.4%	16.9%	94.8	12.0%
	L14	2	2.60	1.50	30.2%	2.3%	51.7%	34.5%	24.1%	95.2	10.8%

I’ve never been great at predicting ownership (which is why I love looking at our ownership projections each day), but it feels like Pivetta will be more popular than Porcello tonight. I know that the peripheral statistics are eye-popping and that he’s been in great form recently, but I have a rule to never target pitchers against the Red Sox. Their projected lineup has an average xwOBA of .351 with a .235 ISO against right-handed pitching this season. The fact that Boston is projected to play five lefties tonight doesn’t help, as Pivetta has allowed a .346 xwOBA to left-handed hitters this season.

Quick Breakdown: I’m a huge Pivetta fan, but will be looking elsewhere tonight.

Batter Grind Down

Boston

The Red Sox go from one hitter-friendly ballpark in Boston to another one in Philadelphia, but they do lose the use of the DH in this series. Their matchup against Nick Pivetta is pretty simple when it comes to DFS — he’s been tough on right-handed hitters (.266 xwOBA with a 50% ground ball rate), but has been susceptible to lefties (.346 xwOBA with a 36% hard contact rate). I have a hard time justifying the price points for Mookie Betts, J.D. Martinez, and Xander Bogaerts, which basically takes a full stack out of the equation. Andrew Benintendi, Mitch Moreland, and Rafael Devers are all viable one-offs, as they bat from the left side and have good power numbers against right-handed pitching.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

#	Player	Bats	xwOBA	ISO	HC%	BB%	K%	GB%	FD Pos.	FD Sal.	DK Pos.	DK Sal.	FDRFT Pos.	FDRFT Sal.
1	Mookie Betts	RIGHT	0.464	0.287	45.5%	11.2%	13.5%	33.5%	OF	$5,200	OF	$6,000	RF	$11,100
2	Andrew Benintendi	LEFT	0.410	0.209	30.8%	13.4%	13.6%	37.3%	OF	$4,200	OF	$5,500	LF	$10,300
3	Mitch Moreland	LEFT	0.413	0.231	36.0%	10.4%	20.4%	41.6%	1B	$3,200	1B	$4,100	1B	$8,100
4	J.D. Martinez	RIGHT	0.466	0.374	46.5%	10.2%	22.0%	44.5%	OF	$5,100	OF	$5,600	RF	$10,300
5	Xander Bogaerts	RIGHT	0.385	0.256	38.5%	7.3%	17.2%	47.7%	SS	$3,800	SS	$4,500	SS	$8,900
6	Rafael Devers	LEFT	0.330	0.207	36.8%	7.8%	23.9%	44.4%	3B	$3,200	3B	$3,700	3B	$7,300
7	Brock Holt	LEFT	0.331	0.104	29.0%	8.8%	14.9%	51.5%	2B	$2,400	2B/SS	$3,400	2B	$6,600
8	Sandy Leon	SWITCH	0.267	0.112	28.6%	3.7%	25.8%	43.0%	C	$2,200	C	$2,800	C	$5,800
9	Rick Porcello	RIGHT	0.090	0.333	100.0%	0.0%	66.7%	0.0%	P	$9,000	P	$9,200	P	$18,000
	Team Averages		0.351	0.235	43.5%	8.1%	24.2%	38.2%

Elite Plays – Andrew Benintendi, Mitch Moreland

Secondary Plays – Rafael Devers, Mookie Betts (GPP)

Stackability – ORANGE / YELLOW

Philadelphia

Rick Porcello is one of those pitchers that I rarely target in DFS, but a pitcher that I rarely target hitters against. In a slate this size, we aren’t forced to take stands in every single matchup. It doesn’t hurt to watch this one from the sidelines. With that said, if you want to play a Phillies’ hitter or two, give an edge to the ones that bat from the left side of the plate. On the season, Porcello has allowed a .348 xwOBA and a 42% hard contact rate to lefties, which brings Nick Williams, Carlos Santana, and Asdrubal Cabrera into play for tournaments.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

#	Player	Bats	xwOBA	ISO	HC%	BB%	K%	GB%	FD Pos.	FD Sal.	DK Pos.	DK Sal.	FDRFT Pos.	FDRFT Sal.
1	Cesar Hernandez	SWITCH	0.325	0.125	23.6%	14.8%	22.0%	42.5%	2B	$3,400	2B	$4,000	2B	$7,400
2	Rhys Hoskins	RIGHT	0.383	0.269	38.0%	11.8%	25.2%	29.0%	OF	$4,000	OF	$4,100	IF/OF	$8,000
3	Nick Williams	LEFT	0.381	0.224	35.3%	8.3%	22.8%	42.8%	OF	$2,800	OF	$4,000	RF	$7,700
4	Carlos Santana	SWITCH	0.367	0.176	34.5%	19.6%	15.8%	39.7%	1B	$3,500	1B	$3,700	1B	$7,200
5	Asdrubal Cabrera	SWITCH	0.371	0.246	45.1%	7.8%	21.6%	39.9%	SS	$3,200	2B/SS	$4,100	SS	$8,400
6	Odubel Herrera	LEFT	0.301	0.193	26.2%	7.4%	20.4%	39.5%	OF	$3,200	OF	$3,900	IF/OF	$7,300
7	Maikel Franco	RIGHT	0.324	0.213	25.9%	4.9%	14.3%	52.2%	3B	$3,500	3B	$3,600	3B	$7,600
8	Jorge Alfaro	RIGHT	0.280	0.129	35.3%	4.4%	38.9%	52.5%	C	$2,500	C	$3,000	C	$5,900
9	Nick Pivetta	RIGHT	0.184	0.042	15.4%	7.1%	46.4%	72.7%	P	$8,000	P	$7,600	P	$14,900
	Team Averages		0.324	0.180	31.0%	9.6%	25.3%	45.6%

Elite Plays – Nick Williams (FD)

Secondary Plays – Nick Williams (DK), Carlos Santana (DK), Asdrubal Cabrera

Stackability – ORANGE / YELLOW

NY Mets at Baltimore – 7:05 PM ET

Stats	wOBA	xwOBA	HC%	HR/9	K%	GB%	Stats	wOBA	xwOBA	HC%	HR/9	K%	GB%
NY Mets								Baltimore
			Jason Vargas							Andrew Cashner
			LEFT							RIGHT
			Vegas Moneyline							Vegas Over/Under
			BAL-110							9.5
SP vs. Left (2016-17)	0.402	0.402	32.6%	2.13	14.8%	32.6%	SP vs. Left (2016-17)	0.354	0.377	33.8%	1.57	19.4%	39.3%
SP vs. Right (2016-17)	0.423	0.364	38.1%	2.34	20.5%	35.1%	SP vs. Right (2016-17)	0.351	0.355	29.3%	0.93	13.5%	45.5%

Pitcher Grind Down

	Stats	Starts	SIERA	ERA	K%	BB%	GB%	HC%	SC%	aFV	SwS%
Jason Vargas
	FanDuel				DraftKings				FantasyDraft
	Salary:			$5,600	Salary:			$5,200	Salary:		$10,100
	Salary Rank:			26 of 28	Salary Rank:			25 of 28	Salary Rank:		24 of 28
	2017	32	4.86	4.16	17.7%	7.7%	40.3%	32.7%	17.9%	85.6	9.9%
	2018	12	4.74	8.75	18.9%	8.8%	34.4%	36.7%	14.3%	86.8	10.8%
	L14	2	3.91	11.81	28.6%	10.7%	23.5%	29.4%	11.8%	85.8	16.8%

We have two bad offenses that are squaring off against two bad pitchers in a hitter-friendly ballpark. I tend to side with the hitters in these situations, as we typically get them on the cheap in favorable matchups. Vargas has been one of the most hittable pitchers in baseball this season, posting an ERA of 8.75 (4.74 SIERA) with a high walk rate and a high hard contact rate. The Orioles are an offense that we’ve been able to stream pitchers against this season, but this could finally be a spot to load up on their hitters.

Quick Breakdown: Avoid Vargas in all formats.

	Stats	Starts	SIERA	ERA	K%	BB%	GB%	HC%	SC%	aFV	SwS%
Andrew Cashner
	FanDuel				DraftKings				FantasyDraft
	Salary:			$6,300	Salary:			$6,000	Salary:		$12,100
	Salary Rank:			20 of 28	Salary Rank:			21 of 28	Salary Rank:		21 of 28
	2017	28	5.52	3.40	12.2%	9.1%	48.6%	28.4%	18.5%	93.4	6.1%
	2018	22	5.01	4.83	16.6%	9.6%	42.3%	31.6%	19.3%	92.6	6.9%
	L14	2	5.99	11.42	7.0%	9.3%	48.6%	28.6%	20.0%	92.2	7.5%

Cashner has not fared well this season, posting a 5.01 SIERA with a strikeout rate of only 17% in his 22 starts. His ground ball rate is down, which has held to a higher hard contact rate and ultimately, a higher earned run average. The Mets don’t have many big names in their lineup, but if we look strictly at the numbers, this is actually a fairly difficult matchup. New York’s projected lineup for tonight’s game has an average xwOBA of .330 with a hard contact rate of 37% against right-handed pitching.

Quick Breakdown: Avoid Cashner in all formats.

Batter Grind Down

NY Mets

The Mets have a lot working in their favor tonight. Their offense has quietly been productive over the last couple of weeks, they are playing in a hitter-friendly ballpark, they get to use the DH in this series, and they have one of the best matchups of the slate. In addition to having a low strikeout rate, Andrew Cashner has allowed a .377 xwOBA to lefties and a .355 xwOBA to righties. Amed Rosario provides nice value batting leadoff, while Brandon Nimmo, Michael Conforto, Jeff McNeil, and Todd Frazier all own an xwOBA of at least .345 against right-handed pitching this season.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

#	Player	Bats	xwOBA	ISO	HC%	BB%	K%	GB%	FD Pos.	FD Sal.	DK Pos.	DK Sal.	FDRFT Pos.	FDRFT Sal.
1	Amed Rosario	RIGHT	0.280	0.109	28.1%	5.4%	19.1%	51.1%	SS	$2,900	SS	$3,600	SS	$7,600
2	Brandon Nimmo	LEFT	0.366	0.243	36.5%	13.6%	26.6%	36.7%	OF	$3,300	OF	$5,400	LF	$10,500
3	Michael Conforto	LEFT	0.356	0.155	38.9%	17.0%	22.2%	37.3%	OF	$3,500	OF	$4,500	LF	$9,000
4	Wilmer Flores	RIGHT	0.327	0.212	37.9%	7.4%	9.7%	34.5%	1B	$3,100	1B	$4,000	3B	$7,400
5	Jeff McNeil	LEFT	0.348	0.174	33.3%	7.3%	10.9%	33.3%	2B	$2,800	2B	$3,800	2B	$7,700
6	Todd Frazier	RIGHT	0.351	0.168	45.6%	10.0%	21.5%	37.4%	3B	$2,600	3B	$4,100	3B	$8,200
7	Austin Jackson	RIGHT	0.289	0.150	34.4%	8.2%	36.4%	42.6%	OF	$2,600	OF	$4,100	CF	$8,000
8	Jose Bautista	RIGHT	0.347	0.141	41.0%	14.6%	30.8%	35.0%	OF	$2,500	3B/OF	$3,800	IF/OF	$7,700
9	Kevin Plawecki	RIGHT	0.309	0.153	38.3%	9.2%	23.8%	49.4%	C	$2,300	C	$3,600	C	$7,500
	Team Averages		0.330	0.167	37.1%	10.3%	22.3%	39.7%

Elite Plays – Amed Rosario, Michael Conforto, Jeff McNeil

Secondary Plays – Brandon Nimmo, Wilmer Flores, Todd Frazier

Stackability – YELLOW / GREEN

Baltimore

The Orioles have been downright awful at the plate this season, both against left and right-handed pitching. While we typically like to stream pitchers against them, I actually have quite a bit of interest in the Orioles as a stack in tournaments. They draw a tremendous matchup against Jason Vargas, who has allowed a .402 xwOBA to lefties and a .364 xwOBA to righties this season. He’s a fly-ball pitcher and this ballpark favors right-handed power. The sites did a nice job of pricing up the Orioles, so they likely won’t become a chalky stack.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. LH Pitching)

#	Player	Bats	xwOBA	ISO	HC%	BB%	K%	GB%	FD Pos.	FD Sal.	DK Pos.	DK Sal.	FDRFT Pos.	FDRFT Sal.
1	Jonathan Villar	SWITCH	0.361	0.258	50.0%	5.7%	28.6%	54.3%	2B	$2,700	2B	$3,900	2B	$7,500
2	Tim Beckham	RIGHT	0.300	0.159	34.9%	11.3%	28.2%	40.5%	SS	$3,300	3B/SS	$3,900	SS	$7,700
3	Adam Jones	RIGHT	0.310	0.079	29.6%	2.3%	9.9%	39.8%	OF	$3,200	OF	$4,000	CF	$7,600
4	Mark Trumbo	RIGHT	0.340	0.200	35.3%	6.2%	22.7%	51.5%	OF	$3,300	OF	$4,600	DH	$9,000
5	Trey Mancini	RIGHT	0.289	0.102	23.7%	7.2%	24.5%	67.7%	OF	$3,000	1B/OF	$3,900	IF/OF	$7,700
6	Chris Davis	LEFT	0.267	0.156	37.9%	8.3%	37.0%	39.7%	1B	$2,100	1B	$3,100	IF/OF	$5,500
7	Renato Nunez	RIGHT	0.280	0.083	25.0%	7.3%	31.7%	29.2%	3B	$2,400	3B	$3,700	IF/OF	$7,700
8	Caleb Joseph	RIGHT	0.262	0.070	18.5%	4.0%	22.7%	37.0%	C	$2,400	C	$2,900	C	$5,600
9	Cedric Mullins	LEFT	0.343	0.000	0.0%	25.0%	50.0%	0.0%	OF	$2,500	OF	$4,300	CF	$8,300
	Team Averages		0.306	0.123	28.3%	8.6%	28.4%	40.0%

Elite Plays – Jonathan Villar, Tim Beckham, Mark Trumbo

Secondary Plays – Adam Jones, Trey Mancini, Caleb Joseph (DK)

Stackability – YELLOW / GREEN

Tampa Bay at NY Yankees – 7:05 PM ET

Stats	wOBA	xwOBA	HC%	HR/9	K%	GB%	Stats	wOBA	xwOBA	HC%	HR/9	K%	GB%
Tampa Bay								NY Yankees
			Hunter Wood							J.A. Happ
			RIGHT							LEFT
			Vegas Moneyline							Vegas Over/Under
			NYY-220							9.0
SP vs. Left (2016-17)	0.277	0.227	28.0%	0.77	34.7%	54.2%	SP vs. Left (2016-17)	0.239	0.296	30.0%	0.68	26.9%	54.4%
SP vs. Right (2016-17)	0.396	0.328	34.1%	1.32	20.6%	44.2%	SP vs. Right (2016-17)	0.308	0.312	30.8%	1.54	27.1%	40.8%

Pitcher Grind Down

	Stats	Starts	SIERA	ERA	K%	BB%	GB%	HC%	SC%	aFV	SwS%
Hunter Wood
	FanDuel				DraftKings				FantasyDraft
	Salary:			$5,500	Salary:			$4,300	Salary:		$8,500
	Salary Rank:			27 of 28	Salary Rank:			28 of 28	Salary Rank:		28 of 28
	2017	0	13.42	0.00	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	100.0%	90.0	0.0%
	2018	6	3.79	3.91	26.8%	11.6%	47.8%	31.9%	21.7%	94.2	15.6%
	L14	3	3.69	5.40	31.0%	13.8%	53.3%	31.3%	25.0%	94.5	20.2%

Wood will get the nod tonight, but like most of the Rays’ “starters,” he’s only going to pitch an inning or two. The usual beat writer that I follow on Twitter that gives us updates on the long reliever that is going to be following the starter is not with the team right now. I haven’t been able to find another beat writer with the answer to our question. Based strictly on how the rotation has gone the last couple of weeks, it looks like Jalen Beeks should be in line for the bulk of the work, but my guess is as good as yours.

Quick Breakdown: Avoid all Rays’ pitchers tonight against the Yankees.

	Stats	Starts	SIERA	ERA	K%	BB%	GB%	HC%	SC%	aFV	SwS%
J.A. Happ
	FanDuel				DraftKings				FantasyDraft
	Salary:			$8,800	Salary:			$9,500	Salary:		$18,900
	Salary Rank:			6 of 28	Salary Rank:			5 of 28	Salary Rank:		5 of 28
	2017	25	4.11	3.53	22.7%	7.4%	46.9%	26.7%	20.3%	91.8	9.5%
	2018	22	3.53	4.07	27.0%	7.1%	43.5%	30.7%	21.4%	91.9	10.6%
	L14	1	2.50	4.50	36.0%	4.0%	25.0%	61.5%	38.5%	91.5	16.0%

Happ is one of the top pitching options of this slate. He has nearly as much upside as the four arms priced above $10,000 on DraftKings, yet he’s cheaper and is actually a larger favorite than most pitchers that are taking the mound tonight. In his 22 starts this season, he owns a 3.53 SIERA with a strikeout rate of 27%. He draws an exploitable matchup tonight against the Rays, whose projected lineup has a .289 xwOBA with a .116 ISO and a 29% strikeout rate against left-handed pitching. I can’t find anything bad to say about Happ tonight, which puts him ahead of most pitchers available in this slate.

Quick Breakdown: Happ is an elite play in all formats.

Batter Grind Down

Tampa Bay

The Rays don’t have much of an offense at this point of the season, especially when facing a left-handed pitcher. Even though they see a favorable ballpark shift playing in New York, they are an easy fade against J.A. Happ, who has had one of his best seasons as a professional. In addition to having a 27% strikeout rate, he has held both left and right-handed hitters under a .315 xwOBA and under a 31% hard contact rate.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. LH Pitching)

#	Player	Bats	xwOBA	ISO	HC%	BB%	K%	GB%	FD Pos.	FD Sal.	DK Pos.	DK Sal.	FDRFT Pos.	FDRFT Sal.
1	Mallex Smith	LEFT	0.315	0.074	27.3%	7.9%	20.6%	53.8%	OF	$2,800	OF	$3,900	CF	$7,300
2	Matt Duffy	RIGHT	0.320	0.071	34.2%	8.3%	18.3%	60.8%	3B	$2,900	3B	$3,400	3B	$6,600
3	Jake Bauers	LEFT	0.272	0.216	40.0%	12.1%	27.6%	51.4%	1B	$2,800	1B/OF	$3,800	1B	$7,700
4	C.J. Cron	RIGHT	0.343	0.204	41.7%	8.2%	30.3%	41.7%	1B	$2,700	1B	$3,700	1B	$7,200
5	Carlos Gomez	RIGHT	0.326	0.159	31.3%	4.9%	23.5%	28.1%	OF	$2,300	OF	$3,500	CF	$6,700
6	Kevin Kiermaier	LEFT	0.222	0.175	19.4%	9.5%	33.3%	51.4%	OF	$2,300	OF	$3,000	CF	$5,600
7	Willy Adames	RIGHT	0.266	0.111	35.0%	5.1%	43.6%	40.0%	SS	$2,700	2B/SS	$3,800	SS	$7,500
8	Brandon Lowe	LEFT	0.251	0.000	0.0%	25.0%	50.0%	100.0%	2B	$2,200	2B/OF	$2,900	2B	$5,900
9	Jesus Sucre	RIGHT	0.289	0.030	43.3%	8.1%	10.8%	50.0%	C	$2,100	C	$2,700	C	$5,900
	Team Averages		0.289	0.116	30.2%	9.9%	28.7%	53.0%

Elite Plays – None

Secondary Plays – None

Stackability – RED

NY Yankees

I really hope we find out who is pitching behind Hunter Wood tonight. I am going to like the Yankees regardless, but if Jalen Beeks is the long reliever, I will absolutely love the Yankees’ stack tonight. He’s a hittable lefty that has an ERA north of nine this season. If we don’t find out who the long reliever is going to be, the best way to approach the Yankees is to target the hitters that fare well against both left and right-handed pitching. That list includes Giancarlo Stanton, Aaron Hicks, Miguel Andujar, and Gleyber Torres.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

#	Player	Bats	xwOBA	ISO	HC%	BB%	K%	GB%	FD Pos.	FD Sal.	DK Pos.	DK Sal.	FDRFT Pos.	FDRFT Sal.
1	Brett Gardner	LEFT	0.296	0.142	26.9%	11.3%	15.1%	51.4%	OF	$3,200	OF	$4,200	LF	$8,400
2	Giancarlo Stanton	RIGHT	0.328	0.216	36.4%	7.8%	30.7%	49.4%	OF	$4,500	OF	$5,600	RF	$10,500
3	Didi Gregorius	LEFT	0.346	0.227	37.6%	9.2%	12.4%	34.8%	SS	$3,900	SS	$4,800	SS	$9,100
4	Aaron Hicks	SWITCH	0.377	0.203	38.8%	15.6%	19.0%	43.2%	OF	$3,900	OF	$4,800	CF	$8,700
5	Miguel Andujar	RIGHT	0.352	0.205	36.9%	4.0%	17.5%	48.3%	3B	$3,400	3B	$4,800	3B	$9,200
6	Greg Bird	LEFT	0.325	0.198	42.5%	8.2%	24.7%	31.5%	1B	$2,800	1B	$3,600	1B	$7,700
7	Gleyber Torres	RIGHT	0.366	0.236	37.0%	8.1%	25.1%	31.7%	2B	$3,700	2B	$4,400	2B	$8,300
8	Neil Walker	SWITCH	0.353	0.116	38.8%	9.7%	22.1%	37.3%	2B	$2,500	1B/2B	$3,600	2B	$7,300
9	Austin Romine	RIGHT	0.339	0.203	39.2%	8.0%	21.0%	46.3%	C	$2,400	C	$3,600	C	$7,300
	Team Averages		0.342	0.194	37.1%	9.1%	20.8%	41.5%

Elite Plays – Giancarlo Stanton, Aaron Hicks, Miguel Andujar, Gleyber Torres

Secondary Plays – Brett Gardner, Didi Gregorius, Greg Bird

Stackability – GREEN

Chicago White Sox at Detroit – 7:10 PM ET

Stats	wOBA	xwOBA	HC%	HR/9	K%	GB%	Stats	wOBA	xwOBA	HC%	HR/9	K%	GB%
Chicago White Sox								Detroit
			Lucas Giolito							Blaine Hardy
			RIGHT							LEFT
			Vegas Moneyline							Vegas Over/Under
			DET-130							9.0
SP vs. Left (2016-17)	0.373	0.416	33.5%	1.47	11.6%	36.3%	SP vs. Left (2016-17)	0.308	0.352	34.4%	1.37	11.4%	42.9%
SP vs. Right (2016-17)	0.331	0.340	29.5%	1.54	18.2%	47.1%	SP vs. Right (2016-17)	0.299	0.290	35.8%	0.99	20.0%	42.6%

Pitcher Grind Down

	Stats	Starts	SIERA	ERA	K%	BB%	GB%	HC%	SC%	aFV	SwS%
Lucas Giolito
	FanDuel				DraftKings				FantasyDraft
	Salary:			$6,200	Salary:			$5,500	Salary:		$11,300
	Salary Rank:			21 of 28	Salary Rank:			22 of 28	Salary Rank:		22 of 28
	2017	7	4.49	2.38	19.0%	6.7%	45.0%	35.4%	19.2%	92.1	10.1%
	2018	23	5.71	6.23	14.9%	12.6%	41.5%	31.6%	15.9%	92.2	8.0%
	L14	2	4.07	6.00	26.0%	12.0%	55.2%	34.5%	10.3%	93.2	8.9%

Giolito is like the rest of the arms in this White Sox starting rotation, he’s a hittable pitcher that I would rather stack against than trust in any format when it comes to DFS. In 23 starts this season, he has a 5.71 SIERA with nearly as many walks as strikeouts. In case you didn’t know, I’ll let you in on a little secret — that’s not good. At all. Even though a matchup against the Tigers is enticing, this sets up similar to last night’s game. I had that pegged as a sneaky shootout and the two teams combined to score 14 runs.

Quick Breakdown: Avoid Giolito in all formats.

	Stats	Starts	SIERA	ERA	K%	BB%	GB%	HC%	SC%	aFV	SwS%
Blaine Hardy
	FanDuel				DraftKings				FantasyDraft
	Salary:			$5,900	Salary:			$6,800	Salary:		$13,500
	Salary Rank:			24 of 28	Salary Rank:			16 of 28	Salary Rank:		16 of 28
	2017	0	4.66	5.94	18.0%	8.3%	33.0%	36.5%	20.0%	89.9	10.0%
	2018	12	4.46	3.63	17.8%	6.3%	42.7%	35.4%	17.9%	87.8	8.6%
	L14	2	4.26	3.75	19.6%	6.5%	47.1%	29.4%	5.9%	87.6	12.0%

Hardy is the more appealing pitcher of the two in this game. He doesn’t have great numbers, but a 4.46 SIERA and a strikeout rate of 18% look elite compared to the numbers of Lucas Giolito. Hardy is pitching at home and he draws a favorable matchup against the White Sox, whose projected lineup has a .310 xwOBA with a strikeout rate of 26% against left-handed pitching. A case can certainly be made for Hardy, but I see this as another potential shootout. I would rather play a bad offense against a bad pitcher rather than the other way around.

Quick Breakdown: Hardy is viable in tournaments, but I will be looking elsewhere.

Batter Grind Down

Chicago White Sox

Even though Blaine Hardy is a reverse-splits pitcher (allowing a .352 xwOBA to lefties this season), my interest is still in the right-handed hitters in this White Sox lineup. Tim Anderson has shown some upside against lefties, especially when batting leadoff and he’s only $2,600 on FanDuel. Avisail Garcia, Jose Abreu, and Matt Davidson all boast a .375+ xwOBA and a .265+ ISO against southpaws this season, so there is plenty of power in the top half of this lineup. I have all three marked as elite tournament plays at their respective positions.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. LH Pitching)

#	Player	Bats	xwOBA	ISO	HC%	BB%	K%	GB%	FD Pos.	FD Sal.	DK Pos.	DK Sal.	FDRFT Pos.	FDRFT Sal.
1	Tim Anderson	RIGHT	0.319	0.179	34.8%	4.8%	21.6%	41.3%	SS	$2,600	SS	$4,000	SS	$7,200
2	Avisail Garcia	RIGHT	0.402	0.302	55.0%	3.6%	23.6%	60.0%	OF	$2,600	OF	$4,000	RF	$7,400
3	Jose Abreu	RIGHT	0.378	0.269	43.5%	7.6%	24.8%	47.8%	1B	$3,400	1B	$4,300	1B	$8,200
4	Matt Davidson	RIGHT	0.377	0.270	47.9%	14.8%	29.5%	47.9%	1B	$2,600	1B/3B	$4,200	3B	$8,300
5	Yoan Moncada	SWITCH	0.228	0.094	34.9%	10.7%	34.7%	53.0%	2B	$3,000	2B	$3,700	2B	$7,600
6	Ryan LaMarre	RIGHT	0.275	0.048	40.0%	4.4%	28.9%	44.8%	OF	$2,000	OF	$2,800	CF	$5,500
7	Yolmer Sanchez	SWITCH	0.260	0.041	23.2%	6.6%	27.4%	59.7%	3B	$2,600	3B	$3,400	2B	$6,700
8	Adam Engel	RIGHT	0.231	0.093	22.4%	3.3%	23.1%	40.3%	OF	$2,300	OF	$3,200	CF	$6,500
9	Omar Narvaez	LEFT	0.321	0.094	20.0%	19.0%	19.0%	47.8%	C	$2,100	C	$3,200	C	$6,400
	Team Averages		0.310	0.154	35.7%	8.3%	25.8%	49.2%

Elite Plays – Avisail Garcia (GPP), Jose Abreu (GPP), Matt Davidson (GPP)

Secondary Plays – Avisail Garcia (Cash), Jose Abreu (Cash), Matt Davidson (Cash), Tim Anderson

Stackability – YELLOW

Detroit

I really want to stack the Tigers tonight against Lucas Giolito, but it’s hard to find four or five hitters in this lineup that are roster-able. Nick Castellanos has been red-hot at the plate and is still priced under $3,000 on FanDuel. He’s an elite play in all formats over there and an elite tournament play on DraftKings ($4,500). Jeimer Candelario, Jose Iglesias, and Niko Goodrum are also viable tonight and see a boost in this matchup, thanks to Giolito’s inability to hold runners.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

#	Player	Bats	xwOBA	ISO	HC%	BB%	K%	GB%	FD Pos.	FD Sal.	DK Pos.	DK Sal.	FDRFT Pos.	FDRFT Sal.
1	Jeimer Candelario	SWITCH	0.287	0.173	33.9%	10.9%	25.2%	38.5%	3B	$2,900	3B	$4,100	3B	$8,000
2	Jose Iglesias	RIGHT	0.269	0.106	25.9%	3.6%	11.1%	46.0%	SS	$2,400	SS	$3,600	SS	$7,600
3	Nick Castellanos	RIGHT	0.365	0.178	47.6%	5.5%	24.6%	34.1%	OF	$2,900	OF	$4,500	IF/OF	$9,200
4	Niko Goodrum	SWITCH	0.324	0.231	38.4%	8.5%	29.6%	39.6%	2B	$2,500	2B/OF	$4,300	1B	$8,600
5	Victor Martinez	SWITCH	0.335	0.073	39.2%	7.3%	9.4%	39.2%	C	$2,200	1B	$3,100	1B	$5,800
6	Jim Adduci	LEFT	0.277	0.175	36.6%	3.4%	27.1%	46.3%	OF	$2,200	1B	$3,600	LF	$7,300
7	Mike Gerber	LEFT	0.277	0.045	18.8%	11.5%	26.9%	31.3%	OF	$2,000	OF	$3,900	RF	$7,200
8	James McCann	RIGHT	0.270	0.083	35.6%	6.0%	23.0%	39.9%	C	$2,200	C	$2,700	C	$5,600
9	Victor Reyes	RIGHT	0.252	0.037	36.1%	1.8%	20.7%	50.6%	OF	$2,200	OF	$3,200	LF	$6,400
	Team Averages		0.295	0.122	34.7%	6.5%	22.0%	40.6%

Elite Plays – Nick Castellanos

Secondary Plays – Jeimer Candelario, Jose Iglesias, Niko Goodrum

Stackability – YELLOW

Cleveland at Cincinnati – 7:10 PM ET

Stats	wOBA	xwOBA	HC%	HR/9	K%	GB%	Stats	wOBA	xwOBA	HC%	HR/9	K%	GB%
Cleveland								Cincinnati
			Corey Kluber							Sal Romano
			RIGHT							RIGHT
			Vegas Moneyline							Vegas Over/Under
			CLE-210							8.5
SP vs. Left (2016-17)	0.256	0.282	36.1%	1.40	26.8%	43.1%	SP vs. Left (2016-17)	0.376	0.394	42.2%	1.67	14.3%	40.2%
SP vs. Right (2016-17)	0.263	0.303	35.4%	0.97	22.8%	46.2%	SP vs. Right (2016-17)	0.295	0.315	30.4%	1.46	18.1%	48.8%

Pitcher Grind Down

	Stats	Starts	SIERA	ERA	K%	BB%	GB%	HC%	SC%	aFV	SwS%
Corey Kluber
	FanDuel				DraftKings				FantasyDraft
	Salary:			$11,000	Salary:			$11,500	Salary:		$22,100
	Salary Rank:			2 of 28	Salary Rank:			3 of 28	Salary Rank:		3 of 28
	2017	29	2.68	2.25	34.1%	4.6%	44.5%	28.9%	24.4%	92.6	15.6%
	2018	24	3.32	2.74	24.7%	3.2%	44.8%	35.7%	16.2%	92.1	10.8%
	L14	2	3.23	2.25	23.7%	1.7%	46.5%	34.9%	16.3%	91.7	6.5%

Kluber is having a very similar season to Clayton Kershaw. He has been very good, but has taken a step back from the elite level that is currently being occupied by the likes of Chris Sale and Max Scherzer. Kluber’s strikeout rate is down 9% this season and his hard contact rate is up 7%. This has led to a higher SIERA, although a 3.32 is still excellent. It’s strange to say, but of the four elite arms on the mound (Kluber, Verlander, Ray, and Paxton), Kluber is my third favorite. He’s pitching on the road in a home run-friendly ballpark and has to face a high-contact offense of the Reds.

Quick Breakdown: I don’t have an argument against Kluber tonight, I just prefer Verlander and Paxton at the top.

	Stats	Starts	SIERA	ERA	K%	BB%	GB%	HC%	SC%	aFV	SwS%
Sal Romano
	FanDuel				DraftKings				FantasyDraft
	Salary:			$6,000	Salary:			$5,000	Salary:		$9,900
	Salary Rank:			23 of 28	Salary Rank:			26 of 28	Salary Rank:		25 of 28
	2017	16	4.72	4.45	19.0%	9.6%	50.4%	32.6%	21.5%	95.3	8.7%
	2018	22	4.85	4.94	16.3%	8.4%	44.6%	36.1%	18.8%	94.2	7.8%
	L14	2	4.70	3.97	16.7%	6.3%	40.0%	30.6%	5.6%	94.1	8.0%

Romano is not a pitcher that needs to be on our radar tonight. He’s had a down year overall, posting a 4.85 SIERA with a strikeout rate of only 16%. He is pitching in a home run-friendly ballpark and he draws one of the worst matchups of the slate. Even without Edwin Encarnacion (no DH for Cleveland in this series), the Indians’ projected lineup boasts an average xwOBA of .319 with a hard contact rate of 36% against right-handed pitching.

Quick Breakdown: Avoid Romano in all formats.

Batter Grind Down

Cleveland

The Indians’ stack worked wonders last night. I’m still kicking myself for using their hitters as one-offs rather than as a full stack. I was worried about how expensive the stack was and ended up siding with the Diamondbacks and Braves, who both underperformed a bit in their respective matchups. We can go right back to the well with the Indians tonight, as they take on Sal Romano, who has allowed a .394 xwOBA and a 42% hard contact rate to left-handed hitters. The one-through-four stack is mightily appealing, as each batter boasts an xwOBA of at least .385 against right-handed pitching this season.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

#	Player	Bats	xwOBA	ISO	HC%	BB%	K%	GB%	FD Pos.	FD Sal.	DK Pos.	DK Sal.	FDRFT Pos.	FDRFT Sal.
1	Francisco Lindor	SWITCH	0.407	0.289	42.8%	9.7%	16.9%	33.8%	SS	$4,700	SS	$5,900	SS	$11,100
2	Michael Brantley	LEFT	0.407	0.194	44.4%	8.4%	7.8%	43.2%	OF	$3,900	OF	$5,300	LF	$10,000
3	Jose Ramirez	SWITCH	0.426	0.370	39.2%	18.6%	11.4%	28.8%	3B	$5,000	3B	$5,900	IF/OF	$11,000
4	Yonder Alonso	LEFT	0.387	0.212	39.4%	9.3%	19.9%	38.2%	1B	$3,300	1B	$4,300	1B	$8,200
5	Melky Cabrera	SWITCH	0.330	0.121	36.1%	5.9%	11.8%	44.6%	OF	$2,600	OF	$3,900	LF	$7,700
6	Jason Kipnis	LEFT	0.347	0.134	37.7%	10.1%	18.0%	35.2%	2B	$3,100	2B	$4,100	2B	$8,500
7	Yan Gomes	RIGHT	0.297	0.153	41.5%	4.4%	28.8%	34.7%	C	$2,500	C	$3,700	C	$7,500
8	Greg Allen	SWITCH	0.270	0.083	40.2%	4.9%	19.6%	45.5%	OF	$2,500	OF	$3,800	CF	$7,700
9	Corey Kluber	RIGHT	0.000	0.000	0.0%	0.0%	100.0%	0.0%	P	$11,000	P	$11,500	P	$22,100
	Team Averages		0.319	0.173	35.7%	7.9%	26.0%	33.8%

Elite Plays – Francisco Lindor, Michael Brantley, Jose Ramirez, Yonder Alonso

Secondary Plays – Melky Cabrera, Jason Kipnis, Yan Gomes (DK)

Stackability – GREEN

Cincinnati

As I mentioned earlier, in these large slates, we shouldn’t feel obligated to take sides in every single matchup. We are allowed to watch from the sidelines. I don’t plan to have any exposure to Corey Kluber tonight, but that doesn’t mean that I have to play any of the Reds’ hitters. While they are playing at home, this is still a very poor matchup. Kluber has held both left and right-handed hitters under a .305 xwOBA this season.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

#	Player	Bats	xwOBA	ISO	HC%	BB%	K%	GB%	FD Pos.	FD Sal.	DK Pos.	DK Sal.	FDRFT Pos.	FDRFT Sal.
1	Jose Peraza	RIGHT	0.299	0.114	31.7%	5.7%	12.0%	36.6%	SS	$2,500	SS	$3,700	SS	$7,600
2	Joey Votto	LEFT	0.452	0.155	38.7%	19.3%	13.4%	33.8%	1B	$3,400	1B	$4,000	1B	$7,600
3	Scooter Gennett	LEFT	0.344	0.176	38.3%	7.6%	18.2%	39.8%	2B	$2,800	2B	$3,900	2B	$7,500
4	Eugenio Suarez	RIGHT	0.378	0.246	48.9%	8.3%	22.2%	36.5%	3B	$3,200	3B	$4,400	3B	$8,500
5	Mason Williams	LEFT	0.290	0.093	41.7%	2.2%	19.6%	56.3%	OF	$2,100	OF	$2,900	CF	$5,700
6	Tucker Barnhart	SWITCH	0.335	0.109	39.7%	10.0%	16.1%	41.7%	C	$2,100	C	$2,900	C	$5,600
7	Preston Tucker	LEFT	0.293	0.175	41.4%	5.4%	26.2%	47.7%	OF	$2,000	OF	$3,300	LF	$6,800
8	Sal Romano	RIGHT	0.112	0.045	20.0%	0.0%	60.0%	83.3%	P	$6,000	P	$5,000	P	$9,900
9	Billy Hamilton	SWITCH	0.250	0.063	19.4%	9.3%	23.6%	44.3%	OF	$2,200	OF	$3,400	CF	$6,700
	Team Averages		0.306	0.131	35.5%	7.5%	23.5%	46.7%

Elite Plays – None

Secondary Plays – None

Stackability – RED

Note: Unless noted, all statistics in the Grind Down are from the 2018 season.

MLB Grind Down: Tuesday, August 14th

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Stackability Rating System:

Implied Run Totals

Ballpark Ratings

Boston at Philadelphia – 7:05 PM ET

Pitcher Grind Down

Batter Grind Down

Boston

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

Philadelphia

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

NY Mets at Baltimore – 7:05 PM ET

Pitcher Grind Down

Batter Grind Down

NY Mets

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

Baltimore

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. LH Pitching)

Tampa Bay at NY Yankees – 7:05 PM ET

Pitcher Grind Down

Batter Grind Down

Tampa Bay

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. LH Pitching)

NY Yankees

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

Chicago White Sox at Detroit – 7:10 PM ET

Pitcher Grind Down

Batter Grind Down

Chicago White Sox

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. LH Pitching)

Detroit

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

Cleveland at Cincinnati – 7:10 PM ET

Pitcher Grind Down

Batter Grind Down

Cleveland

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

Cincinnati

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

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