MLB Grind Down: Tuesday, August 21st

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The RotoGrinders MLB Grind Down will give you an in-depth analysis into the upcoming MLB schedule. This article will break down the numbers for every single game and give you analysis on which trends you can exploit. While matchups are a major factor in daily fantasy baseball, there are plenty of other factors to consider such as injuries, weather, and salaries.

The analysis should point you in the right direction, but it is still up to you to decipher the information and make your own selections. No sport has more variance than baseball. The best choice is not always the right choice but following the trends will win you money over time.

Note: As always, if you want to try a new DFS site, be sure to click through a RotoGrinders link and use our DraftKings promo code, FanDuel promo code, and FantasyDraft promo code to receive the best perks in the industry.


Stackability Rating System:

GREEN – A viable full stack in cash games and GPPs.
YELLOW – A viable mini-stack in cash games and full stack in GPPs.
ORANGE – A viable stack in large field GPPs.
RED – Not a recommended stack for cash games or GPPs.


LA Dodgers at Pittsburgh – 7:05 PM ET

LA Dodgers Pittsburgh
Article Image Brock Stewart Article Image Jameson Taillon
RIGHT RIGHT
Vegas Moneyline Vegas Over/Under
PIT-105 9.0
Stats wOBA xwOBA HC% BB% K% GB% Stats wOBA xwOBA HC% BB% K% GB%
SP vs. Left (2016-17) 0.306 0.269 30.9% 7.4% 21.1% 32.8% SP vs. Left (2016-17) 0.340 0.320 30.6% 7.5% 16.7% 52.5%
SP vs. Right (2016-17) 0.333 0.298 26.7% 10.1% 16.8% 46.4% SP vs. Right (2016-17) 0.309 0.271 33.2% 4.3% 26.0% 48.6%

Pitcher Grind Down

Brock Stewart
Article Image FanDuel DraftKings FantasyDraft
Salary: $5,500 Salary: $5,300 Salary: $10,500
Salary Rank: 28 of 30 Salary Rank: 27 of 30 Salary Rank: 27 of 30
Stats Starts SIERA ERA K% BB% GB% HC% SC%
2016 5 4.62 5.79 19.8% 9.5% 42.0% 33.7% 23.6%
2017 2 4.76 1.64 17.1% 8.0% 38.1% 21.5% 26.2%
L30 2 6.07 4.00 11.6% 9.3% 31.3% 23.5% 29.4%

We have a double-header today in Philadelphia, but neither game is included in the main slate. We’ll focus on the other 14 games and we’ll start with the hottest team in baseball right now. The Dodgers are currently sitting on 88 wins, which is 12 more than any other team in baseball (Astros have 76). Tonight’s game against the Pirates is basically set as a pick ‘em with an over/under of 9.0 runs. Stewart has yet to throw more than 66 pitches in any outing this season and will likely be on a pitch count again tonight. He has shown some strikeout potential in the minors, but we have yet to see it at the major league level. It certainly doesn’t help that the Pirates have the second lowest strikeout rate against right-handed pitching this season.

Quick Breakdown: In a full slate with plenty of options, Stewart is an easy fade in a road start against the Pirates.

Jameson Taillon
Article Image FanDuel DraftKings FantasyDraft
Salary: $7,400 Salary: $7,200 Salary: $14,400
Salary Rank: 10 of 30 Salary Rank: 14 of 30 Salary Rank: 14 of 30
Stats Starts SIERA ERA K% BB% GB% HC% SC%
2016 18 3.61 3.38 20.3% 4.1% 52.4% 33.2% 17.3%
2017 18 3.97 4.64 22.8% 7.5% 48.6% 30.5% 23.4%
L30 5 4.17 9.38 22.0% 6.8% 39.5% 32.5% 21.7%

Last night was a great example of why we don’t take pitchers against the Dodgers and why it can be hard to trust Gerrit Cole. After sailing through the first six innings, the Dodgers put up a quick five runs on Cole in the seventh, which ended his night and his shot at being a top performer in DFS. Taillon has a lot of tools that we look for in a pitcher – an above-average strikeout rate (23%), a high ground ball rate (49%), and an ability to induce soft and medium contact, but we don’t need to force anyone into our lineups in a 14-game slate. He’s a tough sell against the Dodgers, who are ranked fourth in team wOBA against right-handed pitching this season.

Quick Breakdown: Taillon is a boom or bust tournament flier in this slate, but there are better options available.

Batter Grind Down

LA Dodgers

The Dodgers aren’t playing in the best of parks and they don’t draw a particularly favorable matchup. However, they still have a relatively high implied run total, which goes to show how much respect Vegas has for their offense. From a fantasy perspective, I see the Dodgers as secondary plays at best. They have plenty of talent in their lineup, but they are all priced up and they are facing a ground ball pitcher in Jameson Taillon, who has held both left and right-handed hitters under a .320 xwOBA since the start of last season.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

# Player Bats wOBA xwOBA ISO HC% BB% K% GB% FD Pos. FD Sal. DK Pos. DK Sal. FDRFT Pos. FDRFT Sal.
1 Chris Taylor RIGHT 0.397 0.350 0.248 36.8% 9.9% 26.2% 40.4% OF $3,900 2B/OF $4,900 2B $9,600
2 Corey Seager LEFT 0.371 0.395 0.191 47.6% 14.0% 21.3% 41.5% SS $3,700 SS $4,700 SS $9,300
3 Justin Turner RIGHT 0.369 0.382 0.146 34.9% 10.9% 10.1% 29.9% 3B $3,700 3B $4,700 3B $9,300
4 Curtis Granderson LEFT 0.354 0.348 0.270 34.8% 14.7% 22.1% 29.0% OF $3,400 OF $4,900 CF $9,600
5 Yasmani Grandal SWITCH 0.343 0.296 0.234 36.7% 6.7% 26.3% 40.5% C $3,100 C $4,000 C $7,600
6 Yasiel Puig RIGHT 0.369 0.354 0.257 36.1% 9.6% 19.9% 46.3% OF $2,700 OF $3,600 RF $7,200
7 Adrian Gonzalez LEFT 0.283 0.307 0.104 33.9% 6.7% 16.0% 34.8% 1B $2,400 1B $3,400 1B $6,600
8 Logan Forsythe RIGHT 0.266 0.293 0.041 29.8% 14.1% 26.7% 47.9% 2B $3,000 2B/3B $3,500 2B $6,800
9 Brock Stewart RIGHT 0.000 0.236 0.000 0.0% 0.0% 33.3% 0.0% P $5,500 P $5,300 P $10,500

Elite Plays – None

Secondary Plays – Corey Seager, Curtis Granderson, Yasmani Grandal

Stackability – ORANGE

Pittsburgh

Even though Brock Stewart is still an unknown quantity at the major league level, he’s not a pitcher that we want to go out of our way to target. He has been dominant in the minors this season and the Pirates’ offense leaves much to be desired. If you look at the projected starter table below, you will see that the Pirates don’t have a single hitter with an elite xwOBA (the box would be blue) against right-handed pitching this season. As you will soon see, there are some truly great matchups that we can exploit tonight, so we don’t need to waste too many roster spots in this game.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

# Player Bats wOBA xwOBA ISO HC% BB% K% GB% FD Pos. FD Sal. DK Pos. DK Sal. FDRFT Pos. FDRFT Sal.
1 Starling Marte RIGHT 0.347 0.337 0.115 27.4% 6.2% 17.2% 49.5% OF $3,800 OF $4,900 CF $9,600
2 Josh Harrison RIGHT 0.326 0.319 0.147 31.9% 4.7% 16.1% 35.5% 2B $3,200 2B/3B $4,400 2B $8,400
3 Andrew McCutchen RIGHT 0.339 0.346 0.160 32.5% 10.9% 18.1% 42.8% OF $3,400 OF $4,600 RF $8,800
4 Josh Bell SWITCH 0.352 0.340 0.227 33.5% 11.2% 19.2% 49.6% 1B $3,900 1B $4,500 IF/OF $8,700
5 David Freese RIGHT 0.318 0.344 0.108 31.9% 11.8% 21.3% 55.5% 3B $2,900 3B $3,900 3B $7,600
6 Adam Frazier LEFT 0.325 0.334 0.128 31.9% 8.0% 11.1% 46.8% OF $3,300 2B/OF $3,500 IF/OF $6,800
7 Jordy Mercer RIGHT 0.315 0.308 0.148 28.1% 9.6% 14.8% 46.7% SS $2,200 SS $2,900 SS $5,600
8 Chris Stewart RIGHT 0.238 0.258 0.037 30.9% 4.5% 17.0% 34.8% C $2,000 C $2,000 C $4,000
9 Jameson Taillon RIGHT 0.046 0.117 0.000 0.0% 0.0% 38.1% 88.9% P $7,400 P $7,200 P $14,400

Elite Plays – None

Secondary Plays – Andrew McCutchen

Stackability – ORANGE


Oakland at Baltimore – 7:05 PM ET

Oakland Baltimore
Article Image Paul Blackburn Article Image Ubaldo Jimenez
RIGHT RIGHT
Vegas Moneyline Vegas Over/Under
BAL-163 11.0
Stats wOBA xwOBA HC% BB% K% GB% Stats wOBA xwOBA HC% BB% K% GB%
SP vs. Left (2016-17) 0.262 0.340 25.6% 9.9% 9.0% 55.6% SP vs. Left (2016-17) 0.389 0.335 32.2% 11.2% 22.1% 42.4%
SP vs. Right (2016-17) 0.351 0.312 25.3% 4.4% 10.6% 54.3% SP vs. Right (2016-17) 0.324 0.329 33.6% 10.1% 18.6% 50.2%

Pitcher Grind Down

Paul Blackburn
Article Image FanDuel DraftKings FantasyDraft
Salary: $5,600 Salary: $5,200 Salary: $10,200
Salary Rank: 25 of 30 Salary Rank: 28 of 30 Salary Rank: 28 of 30
Stats Starts SIERA ERA K% BB% GB% HC% SC%
2017 9 5.23 3.46 9.8% 7.1% 54.9% 25.4% 17.8%
L30 6 5.09 4.37 9.6% 6.9% 55.4% 25.4% 17.2%

Every time I hear the name Blackburn, I think of the Pirates of the Caribbean movies. I’m not even sure if there is a character in those movies with the name of Blackburn (haven’t seen the movies in years), but that’s what comes to mind. This Blackburn has had a rough time navigating the major leagues seas, posting a 5.23 SIERA with a strikeout rate under 10% this season. He does a nice job of inducing ground balls, but as we often mention in this article, a high ground ball rate with a low strikeout rate will usually lead to a lot of hits. There isn’t nearly enough upside for Blackburn tonight against the Orioles.

Quick Breakdown: As a large underdog on the road, Blackburn has little to no fantasy appeal.

Ubaldo Jimenez
Article Image FanDuel DraftKings FantasyDraft
Salary: $6,900 Salary: $7,700 Salary: $15,300
Salary Rank: 15 of 30 Salary Rank: 11 of 30 Salary Rank: 10 of 30
Stats Starts SIERA ERA K% BB% GB% HC% SC%
2016 25 4.75 5.44 19.6% 11.3% 49.0% 30.9% 19.2%
2017 20 4.62 6.47 20.7% 9.7% 44.6% 35.5% 18.7%
L30 6 3.70 5.08 26.2% 6.7% 43.9% 37.8% 24.5%

In his last start against the A’s, Jimenez struck out 11 batters in just over five innings of work. I actually recommended him in that start because I loved the ballpark. You can make mistakes in Oakland and get away with them more often than you can in Camden Yards. The strikeout upside is still present for Jimenez in this spot, as the A’s have the fourth highest k-rate of any team in baseball against right-handed pitching. The run support should also be there with Paul Blackburn pitching opposite him. The question is whether or not Ubaldo is worth the price tag. For my money, he seems a bit overpriced given his volatility.

Quick Breakdown: Like many pitchers in this slate, you can make a case for Jimenez as a GPP dart, but he’s not a core target.

Batter Grind Down

Oakland

The A’s see a favorable ballpark shift playing in Baltimore and they draw a favorable matchup against Ubaldo Jimenez. Since the start of last season, Jimenez has allowed a .329+ xwOBA and a 32%+ hard contact rate to both left and right-handed hitters. He has also allowed a stolen base every six innings, which is the highest mark in the slate. What happens in this matchup is going to come down to contact. If the A’s can make good contact, they should have no issues scoring runs. If they continue to strikeout at a 25% clip, they could end up stranding their runners yet again.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

# Player Bats wOBA xwOBA ISO HC% BB% K% GB% FD Pos. FD Sal. DK Pos. DK Sal. FDRFT Pos. FDRFT Sal.
1 Boog Powell LEFT 0.260 0.247 0.022 23.5% 11.5% 23.1% 59.4% OF $2,300 OF $2,800 CF $5,600
2 Jed Lowrie SWITCH 0.346 0.368 0.180 37.2% 9.6% 15.1% 27.2% 2B $3,000 2B $3,800 2B $7,500
3 Matt Joyce LEFT 0.342 0.362 0.234 32.3% 13.4% 20.4% 33.2% OF $3,500 OF $4,100 RF $8,000
4 Khris Davis RIGHT 0.365 0.380 0.301 40.5% 10.1% 31.4% 39.2% OF $3,700 OF $4,400 LF $8,400
5 Ryon Healy RIGHT 0.291 0.304 0.172 36.5% 3.6% 25.7% 44.9% 1B $3,000 1B/3B $3,600 3B $7,200
6 Matt Olson LEFT 0.378 0.348 0.333 42.9% 10.7% 32.0% 46.3% 1B $2,400 1B/OF $3,700 LF $7,200
7 Matt Chapman RIGHT 0.364 0.289 0.324 39.4% 9.8% 31.1% 32.4% 3B $2,800 3B $3,200 3B $6,400
8 Chad Pinder RIGHT 0.341 0.338 0.258 36.7% 4.2% 30.1% 42.2% OF $2,200 2B/SS $3,000 2B $6,000
9 Bruce Maxwell LEFT 0.292 0.301 0.078 35.6% 13.9% 22.6% 46.0% C $2,000 C $2,200 C $4,200

Elite Plays – Matt Joyce

Secondary Plays – Boog Powell, Jed Lowrie, Khris Davis, Matt Olson

Stackability – YELLOW

Baltimore

The Orioles have far and away the highest implied run total in the slate. They were extremely chalky last night, but that had a lot to do with the number of games on the schedule. I still expect them to be popular tonight, but as long as the ownership isn’t too outrageous, I will be firing a few Orioles’ stacks in tournaments. They are playing at home in a good ballpark and they are facing a rookie pitcher that has a strikeout rate below 10%. When the O’s aren’t striking out, they tend to hit the ball hard. This is one of my favorite stacks in the slate and a few of their hitters are viable in cash games as well.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

# Player Bats wOBA xwOBA ISO HC% BB% K% GB% FD Pos. FD Sal. DK Pos. DK Sal. FDRFT Pos. FDRFT Sal.
1 Tim Beckham RIGHT 0.353 0.320 0.197 43.4% 5.3% 29.7% 47.2% SS $3,500 SS $4,700 SS $9,300
2 Manny Machado RIGHT 0.332 0.360 0.217 37.2% 7.9% 16.5% 42.2% 3B $4,000 3B $5,500 3B $10,800
3 Jonathan Schoop RIGHT 0.360 0.311 0.211 32.0% 4.5% 20.3% 41.5% 2B $3,500 2B $4,700 2B $9,300
4 Adam Jones RIGHT 0.333 0.309 0.188 31.1% 3.5% 17.5% 45.1% OF $3,000 OF $4,400 CF $8,400
5 Trey Mancini RIGHT 0.384 0.349 0.268 34.7% 6.6% 23.4% 53.1% OF $3,000 1B/OF $3,600 IF/OF $7,200
6 Chris Davis LEFT 0.325 0.333 0.243 43.5% 12.7% 34.9% 33.1% 1B $3,400 1B $4,200 IF/OF $8,100
7 Mark Trumbo RIGHT 0.301 0.315 0.173 31.2% 8.1% 23.7% 42.6% OF $3,400 OF $4,100 IF/OF $8,000
8 Welington Castillo RIGHT 0.327 0.322 0.195 35.5% 6.4% 25.6% 42.0% C $2,700 C $3,500 C $6,900
9 Seth Smith LEFT 0.348 0.359 0.192 37.4% 9.7% 20.0% 41.9% OF $2,600 OF $3,700 LF $7,200

Elite Plays – Tim Beckham, Manny Machado

Secondary Plays – Jonathan Schoop, Adam Jones, Trey Mancini, Chris Davis

Stackability – GREEN


Arizona at NY Mets – 7:10 PM ET

Arizona NY Mets
Article Image Patrick Corbin Article Image Tommy Milone
LEFT LEFT
Vegas Moneyline Vegas Over/Under
ARI-157 9.0
Stats wOBA xwOBA HC% BB% K% GB% Stats wOBA xwOBA HC% BB% K% GB%
SP vs. Left (2016-17) 0.310 0.303 35.1% 7.8% 30.4% 53.3% SP vs. Left (2016-17) 0.317 0.317 39.2% 5.1% 19.2% 32.9%
SP vs. Right (2016-17) 0.359 0.341 35.7% 8.0% 17.2% 51.3% SP vs. Right (2016-17) 0.391 0.378 32.3% 7.1% 15.9% 45.0%

Pitcher Grind Down

Patrick Corbin
Article Image FanDuel DraftKings FantasyDraft
Salary: $8,700 Salary: $9,400 Salary: $18,000
Salary Rank: 4 of 30 Salary Rank: 4 of 30 Salary Rank: 4 of 30
Stats Starts SIERA ERA K% BB% GB% HC% SC%
2016 24 4.38 5.15 18.7% 9.4% 53.8% 38.5% 15.2%
2017 25 4.00 4.25 21.8% 6.4% 49.3% 32.4% 18.4%
L30 5 3.86 3.56 24.4% 6.7% 43.8% 30.4% 19.6%

I was excited to see Corbin listed as a probable starter tonight until I saw his salaries across the industry. His recent stretch of form has led to an inflated price point. Over his last five starts, he has a 3.86 SIERA with a strikeout rate of 24% and a walk rate of 7%. He has really cut down on his hard contact allowed this season and he draws an exploitable matchup against the Mets, who have a completely different offense than they did earlier in the season. The likes of Juan Lagares, Amed Rosario, and Dominic Smith aren’t nearly as intimidating as Jay Bruce and Curtis Granderson.

Quick Breakdown: Corbin has some tournament appeal at low ownership, but there are better values when it comes to point-per-dollar.

Tommy Milone
Article Image FanDuel DraftKings FantasyDraft
Salary: $6,100 Salary: $5,600 Salary: $11,200
Salary Rank: 20 of 30 Salary Rank: 23 of 30 Salary Rank: 23 of 30
Stats Starts SIERA ERA K% BB% GB% HC% SC%
2016 12 4.61 5.71 15.8% 7.1% 45.7% 35.6% 18.8%
2017 6 4.52 7.91 18.2% 5.8% 36.2% 29.9% 23.1%

Milone is making his seventh start of the season and his 19th in the last two years. He has not fared well during that stretch, posting a SIERA over 4.50 with a strikeout rate of only 16%. He has really struggled against right-handed hitters throughout his career and the Diamondbacks just so happen to have two of the best righties in baseball in Paul Goldschmidt and J.D. Martinez.

Quick Breakdown: There is more downside than upside for Milone in this spot, which is why he is listed as a large underdog.

Batter Grind Down

Arizona

As mentioned above, the best way to attack Tommy Milone is with right-handed hitters. Since the start of last season, he has allowed a .378 xwOBA and a 32% hard contact rate to righties. It’s worth noting that his numbers against lefties aren’t great either, as he has allowed a .317 xwOBA and a 39% hard contact rate. The Diamondbacks are a sneaky offense to stack tonight because they have home run upside and they should come at low ownership in this ballpark.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. LH Pitching)

# Player Bats wOBA xwOBA ISO HC% BB% K% GB% FD Pos. FD Sal. DK Pos. DK Sal. FDRFT Pos. FDRFT Sal.
1 David Peralta LEFT 0.318 0.307 0.131 26.1% 5.4% 16.1% 56.5% OF $3,600 OF $4,500 RF $8,800
2 A.J. Pollock RIGHT 0.325 0.302 0.213 30.2% 4.0% 8.1% 49.4% OF $3,200 OF $4,100 CF $8,100
3 Paul Goldschmidt RIGHT 0.401 0.429 0.232 53.2% 17.7% 17.7% 46.8% 1B $4,100 1B $5,300 1B $10,200
4 J.D. Martinez RIGHT 0.563 0.494 0.518 54.8% 16.4% 20.9% 26.2% OF $3,900 OF $4,800 RF $9,300
5 Jake Lamb LEFT 0.259 0.248 0.194 28.6% 10.6% 37.2% 58.9% 3B $3,700 3B $4,500 3B $8,700
6 Brandon Drury RIGHT 0.281 0.285 0.140 25.0% 2.1% 30.2% 50.0% 2B $2,500 2B $3,600 IF/OF $7,200
7 Chris Iannetta RIGHT 0.393 0.312 0.271 22.2% 9.3% 22.2% 47.2% C $2,400 C $3,200 C $6,400
8 Ketel Marte SWITCH 0.409 0.429 0.241 33.3% 14.7% 14.7% 58.3% SS $2,700 SS $3,200 SS $6,300
9 Patrick Corbin LEFT 0.000 0.029 0.000 0.0% 0.0% 75.0% 100.0% P $8,700 P $9,400 P $18,000

Elite Plays – A.J. Pollock, Paul Goldschmidt, J.D. Martinez

Secondary Plays – David Peralta, Chris Iannetta, Ketel Marte

Stackability – YELLOW

NY Mets

The Mets are a team that I am bearish on moving forward. I plan to have as little exposure to them as possible because they have nothing to play for and are one of the few teams that failed to live up to expectations this season. Tonight’s matchup against Patrick Corbin isn’t a great one, as he comes into the game in great form over the last month of play. Corbin has struggled with right-handed hitters in his career, but Asdrubal Cabrera, Yoenis Cespedes, and Wilmer Flores are all secondary options at their respective positions.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. LH Pitching)

# Player Bats wOBA xwOBA ISO HC% BB% K% GB% FD Pos. FD Sal. DK Pos. DK Sal. FDRFT Pos. FDRFT Sal.
1 Juan Lagares RIGHT 0.323 0.293 0.154 36.4% 4.5% 18.2% 37.5% OF $2,000 OF $2,700 CF $5,400
2 Asdrubal Cabrera SWITCH 0.358 0.314 0.083 36.6% 5.0% 13.9% 51.9% 3B $2,500 2B/SS $2,900 SS $5,600
3 Yoenis Cespedes RIGHT 0.321 0.338 0.268 44.4% 8.8% 22.5% 27.8% OF $3,600 OF $4,300 LF $8,400
4 Wilmer Flores RIGHT 0.341 0.295 0.258 40.5% 2.0% 17.3% 35.4% 2B $3,200 1B/3B $3,600 3B $7,200
5 Michael Conforto LEFT 0.328 0.336 0.247 42.9% 7.8% 35.9% 35.7% OF $3,800 OF $4,300 LF $8,400
6 Travis d’Arnaud RIGHT 0.374 0.324 0.234 34.7% 11.1% 20.8% 53.1% C $2,300 C $2,800 C $5,400
7 Amed Rosario RIGHT 0.378 0.326 0.231 22.2% 7.1% 28.6% 44.4% SS $2,200 SS $2,700 SS $5,400
8 Dominic Smith LEFT 0.000 0.312 0.000 50.0% 0.0% 33.3% 100.0% 1B $2,400 1B $2,800 1B $5,400
9 Tommy Milone LEFT P $6,100 P $5,600 P $11,200

Elite Plays – None

Secondary Plays – Asdrubal Cabrera, Yoenis Cespedes, Wilmer Flores

Stackability – ORANGE


Boston at Cleveland – 7:10 PM ET

Boston Cleveland
Article Image Doug Fister Article Image Carlos Carrasco
RIGHT RIGHT
Vegas Moneyline Vegas Over/Under
CLE-190 8.5
Stats wOBA xwOBA HC% BB% K% GB% Stats wOBA xwOBA HC% BB% K% GB%
SP vs. Left (2016-17) 0.400 0.371 38.4% 9.8% 14.1% 39.8% SP vs. Left (2016-17) 0.325 0.315 37.6% 7.7% 25.1% 43.1%
SP vs. Right (2016-17) 0.272 0.291 25.2% 7.4% 17.4% 51.4% SP vs. Right (2016-17) 0.281 0.278 31.5% 5.0% 27.5% 49.2%

Pitcher Grind Down

Doug Fister
Article Image FanDuel DraftKings FantasyDraft
Salary: $6,200 Salary: $5,900 Salary: $11,700
Salary Rank: 19 of 30 Salary Rank: 21 of 30 Salary Rank: 21 of 30
Stats Starts SIERA ERA K% BB% GB% HC% SC%
2016 32 4.97 4.64 14.8% 8.0% 45.3% 31.5% 19.7%
2017 7 5.05 5.56 18.9% 11.4% 44.0% 36.2% 13.8%
L30 3 4.22 4.91 21.1% 8.4% 51.5% 38.8% 11.9%

Fister is one of the least talented pitchers in the slate and he draws one of the worst matchups. That’s an awfully tough combination to overcome. Since the start of last season, Fister has a SIERA close to 5.00 with a strikeout rate of 16%. He allows a lot of hard contact and he isn’t particularly good with his command. He should be avoided in a road start against the Indians, who are ranked eighth in team wOBA and seventh in strikeout rate against right-handed pitching this season.

Quick Breakdown: Fister is one of the many pitchers that we can easily cross off our list of potential targets tonight.

Carlos Carrasco
Article Image FanDuel DraftKings FantasyDraft
Salary: $9,300 Salary: $11,700 Salary: $22,800
Salary Rank: 2 of 30 Salary Rank: 2 of 30 Salary Rank: 2 of 30
Stats Starts SIERA ERA K% BB% GB% HC% SC%
2016 25 3.44 3.32 25.0% 5.7% 48.5% 36.4% 16.0%
2017 24 3.51 3.76 27.9% 6.8% 44.1% 31.9% 17.3%
L30 5 3.57 4.39 27.7% 7.1% 44.9% 35.2% 19.7%

Carrasco is one of the more intriguing plays in the slate. While he has as much talent as any other pitcher taking the mound, he doesn’t have great splits at home and he is facing a low-strikeout Red Sox offense. When we have these big slates, I want to feel very confident in my starting pitcher selections and I just don’t have that feeling with Carrasco tonight. I’m not saying that he is a bad play by any means, but dollar for dollar, there are at least a handful of pitchers that I would rather target tonight. The Red Sox like to drive up pitch counts and they have the fourth lowest strikeout rate against right-handed pitching this season.

Quick Breakdown: The matchup, the high salary, and bad splits at home are enough to scare me away from Carrasco tonight.

Batter Grind Down

Boston

Watching a game from the sidelines is never a bad approach in these large slates, especially when you don’t feel great about the starting pitcher or the offense that he is facing. Carlos Carrasco is a bit too expensive for my liking, but I won’t be targeting any Red Sox hitters either. Since the start of last season, Carrasco has held both left and right-handed hitters under a .315 xwOBA. He also has an elite strikeout rate and is listed a large favorite tonight.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

# Player Bats wOBA xwOBA ISO HC% BB% K% GB% FD Pos. FD Sal. DK Pos. DK Sal. FDRFT Pos. FDRFT Sal.
1 Eduardo Nunez RIGHT 0.349 0.271 0.133 25.7% 2.8% 10.7% 54.1% 2B $3,200 3B/OF $3,900 3B $7,600
2 Mookie Betts RIGHT 0.333 0.325 0.190 35.5% 9.2% 11.5% 40.1% OF $3,900 OF $4,400 RF $8,700
3 Andrew Benintendi LEFT 0.353 0.347 0.189 38.2% 10.3% 16.0% 37.2% OF $3,700 OF $4,000 LF $7,600
4 Hanley Ramirez RIGHT 0.328 0.358 0.169 34.6% 8.7% 18.7% 41.6% 1B $3,000 1B $3,600 1B $7,200
5 Rafael Devers LEFT 0.460 0.380 0.389 41.9% 11.5% 18.0% 48.8% 3B $3,500 3B $4,200 3B $8,100
6 Xander Bogaerts RIGHT 0.318 0.266 0.136 31.1% 7.0% 18.8% 47.9% SS $3,100 SS $3,700 SS $7,200
7 Mitch Moreland LEFT 0.329 0.379 0.190 41.6% 10.7% 22.7% 39.3% 1B $3,000 1B $3,500 1B $6,800
8 Christian Vazquez RIGHT 0.307 0.268 0.087 27.2% 5.3% 18.2% 48.1% C $2,500 C $3,000 C $6,000
9 Jackie Bradley Jr. LEFT 0.302 0.326 0.160 37.6% 9.3% 24.3% 40.7% OF $3,300 OF $3,600 CF $7,200

Elite Plays – None

Secondary Plays – None

Stackability – RED

Cleveland

There is a decent chance that the Indians get overlooked tonight and I really hope that’s the case. When looking at implied run totals, theirs is currently the eighth highest on the board. It’s low enough that most people won’t think twice about a Cleveland stack, even though their matchup against Doug Fister is an exploitable one. Since the start of last season, Fister has allowed a .371 xwOBA and a 38% hard contact rate to left-handed hitters. The Indians have a plethora of lefties to throw at Fister tonight, including five of their first six batters in the lineup.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

# Player Bats wOBA xwOBA ISO HC% BB% K% GB% FD Pos. FD Sal. DK Pos. DK Sal. FDRFT Pos. FDRFT Sal.
1 Francisco Lindor SWITCH 0.301 0.314 0.184 31.4% 7.3% 14.1% 39.5% SS $3,700 SS $4,600 SS $8,800
2 Jason Kipnis LEFT 0.307 0.311 0.199 31.8% 7.2% 20.2% 30.0% 2B $3,300 2B $4,400 2B $8,400
3 Jose Ramirez SWITCH 0.385 0.347 0.242 33.0% 8.1% 11.2% 38.9% 3B $3,100 2B/3B $4,800 IF/OF $9,300
4 Edwin Encarnacion RIGHT 0.364 0.382 0.258 37.6% 13.1% 20.7% 35.0% 1B $3,900 1B $5,100 1B $10,000
5 Jay Bruce LEFT 0.382 0.380 0.286 43.2% 9.8% 21.6% 32.9% OF $4,000 OF $4,800 RF $9,200
6 Carlos Santana SWITCH 0.356 0.381 0.210 37.6% 14.0% 19.6% 32.9% 1B $3,600 1B $5,000 1B $9,900
7 Austin Jackson RIGHT 0.331 0.303 0.109 41.1% 8.7% 21.2% 47.2% OF $3,100 OF $3,600 CF $7,200
8 Bradley Zimmer LEFT 0.313 0.310 0.176 36.2% 9.7% 30.4% 43.9% OF $2,300 OF $3,800 CF $7,500
9 Yan Gomes RIGHT 0.277 0.281 0.103 26.2% 9.1% 26.3% 40.3% C $2,300 C $3,200 C $6,400

Elite Plays – Francisco Lindor, Jose Ramirez (FD)

Secondary Plays – Jason Kipnis, Jose Ramirez (DK), Edwin Encarnacion, Jay Bruce, Carlos Santana

Stackability – YELLOW / GREEN


Chicago Cubs at Cincinnati – 7:10 PM ET

Chicago Cubs Cincinnati
Article Image John Lackey Article Image Homer Bailey
RIGHT RIGHT
Vegas Moneyline Vegas Over/Under
CHC-150 10.5
Stats wOBA xwOBA HC% BB% K% GB% Stats wOBA xwOBA HC% BB% K% GB%
SP vs. Left (2016-17) 0.339 0.350 33.5% 9.4% 18.8% 43.9% SP vs. Left (2016-17) 0.397 0.378 36.6% 11.5% 16.7% 43.8%
SP vs. Right (2016-17) 0.281 0.302 34.2% 5.6% 25.4% 40.0% SP vs. Right (2016-17) 0.409 0.364 25.0% 8.5% 19.5% 44.4%

Pitcher Grind Down

John Lackey
Article Image FanDuel DraftKings FantasyDraft
Salary: $7,400 Salary: $8,300 Salary: $16,000
Salary Rank: 10 of 30 Salary Rank: 8 of 30 Salary Rank: 8 of 30
Stats Starts SIERA ERA K% BB% GB% HC% SC%
2016 29 3.83 3.35 24.1% 7.1% 41.0% 34.4% 16.2%
2017 23 4.50 4.67 20.2% 7.6% 42.7% 33.3% 15.3%
L30 5 4.33 3.29 23.3% 9.2% 42.1% 19.7% 15.8%

Lackey has shown some decent form in his last five starts, but his numbers on the season have taken a dip. Father time finally seems to be catching up to him. In 23 starts, he owns a 4.50 SIERA with a strikeout rate of 20%. Those numbers aren’t terrible, but he’s a pitcher that has always given up a lot of medium and hard contact. Now that his strikeout rate is down, it has led to more extra-base hits and more runs against him. I’m not a fan of targeting pitchers in the Great American Ballpark and I won’t be making an exception for Lackey.

Quick Breakdown: The risk outweighs the upside for Lackey tonight against the Reds.

Homer Bailey
Article Image FanDuel DraftKings FantasyDraft
Salary: $5,700 Salary: $6,200 Salary: $12,300
Salary Rank: 24 of 30 Salary Rank: 18 of 30 Salary Rank: 18 of 30
Stats Starts SIERA ERA K% BB% GB% HC% SC%
2016 6 3.55 6.65 24.3% 6.3% 45.2% 30.7% 16.0%
2017 11 5.43 8.44 15.6% 11.4% 43.7% 30.3% 16.5%
L30 6 5.63 7.31 15.6% 12.3% 41.5% 30.3% 18.4%

Bailey isn’t as bad as his 8.44 ERA suggests, but he’s certainly not good. He still owns a 5.43 SIERA with a walk rate (11%) that is nearly as high as his strikeout rate (16%). He comes into tonight’s game as a large underdog with the total set at 10.5 runs. Chicago is going to be a popular stack tonight and for good reason. Not only has Bailey allowed a lot of home runs this season, but he’s also struggled to hold runners.

Quick Breakdown: Stay far, far, far away from Bailey tonight.

Batter Grind Down

Chicago Cubs

The Cubs should be licking their chops for tonight’s matchup against Homer Bailey, who has allowed a .364+ xwOBA to both left and right-handed hitters in the last two seasons. This is a truly elite matchup and the Cubs see a massive ballpark bump playing in Cincinnati, which is one of the most home run-friendly ballparks in baseball. This is one of those games that could get ugly in a hurry, which would help the Cubs’ stack even more considering how bad this Reds’ bullpen is.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

# Player Bats wOBA xwOBA ISO HC% BB% K% GB% FD Pos. FD Sal. DK Pos. DK Sal. FDRFT Pos. FDRFT Sal.
1 Jon Jay LEFT 0.336 0.314 0.109 26.5% 9.5% 20.3% 48.0% OF $2,600 OF $3,400 CF $6,600
2 Kyle Schwarber LEFT 0.333 0.361 0.257 37.7% 11.9% 29.4% 39.4% OF $3,500 OF $4,100 IF/OF $8,000
3 Kris Bryant RIGHT 0.391 0.337 0.248 30.5% 11.4% 19.9% 36.9% 3B $4,300 3B $5,000 IF/OF $9,900
4 Anthony Rizzo LEFT 0.372 0.392 0.234 33.7% 13.5% 12.5% 38.0% 1B $4,500 1B $5,200 1B $10,200
5 Ben Zobrist SWITCH 0.312 0.332 0.139 34.9% 11.0% 14.1% 52.8% OF $3,100 2B/OF $4,000 IF/OF $7,600
6 Alex Avila LEFT 0.390 0.435 0.241 54.2% 16.1% 30.7% 35.9% C $2,800 1B/C $3,700 C $7,200
7 Ian Happ SWITCH 0.367 0.361 0.310 34.1% 10.8% 28.6% 41.6% 2B $3,200 2B/OF $4,500 IF/OF $8,700
8 Javier Baez RIGHT 0.308 0.289 0.202 31.8% 5.2% 29.9% 47.9% SS $3,400 2B/SS $4,100 2B $8,000
9 John Lackey RIGHT 0.143 0.158 0.030 13.6% 0.0% 37.1% 75.0% P $7,400 P $8,300 P $16,000

Elite Plays – Jon Jay, Kyle Schwarber, Kris Bryant, Anthony Rizzo

Secondary Plays – Ben Zobrist, Alex Avila, Ian Happ

Stackability – GREEN

Cincinnati

The Cubs are going to get all of the attention in this game, even though the Reds draw a nice matchup as well. John Lackey gives up a lot of medium and hard contact, which might not bode well in this small ballpark. Since the start of last season, Lackey has allowed a .350 xwOBA and a 34% hard contact rate to left-handed hitters. In addition to mashing right-handed pitching all season, Joey Votto already has two home runs against Lackey in his career. He will look to make it three tonight. Zack Cozart also has two home runs off of Lackey in only 20 at-bats.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

# Player Bats wOBA xwOBA ISO HC% BB% K% GB% FD Pos. FD Sal. DK Pos. DK Sal. FDRFT Pos. FDRFT Sal.
1 Billy Hamilton SWITCH 0.297 0.261 0.090 16.6% 8.7% 20.2% 45.7% OF $3,300 OF $4,000 CF $7,800
2 Zack Cozart RIGHT 0.389 0.322 0.242 29.5% 13.0% 16.2% 39.5% SS $3,400 SS $4,300 SS $8,400
3 Joey Votto LEFT 0.435 0.432 0.271 38.5% 18.7% 11.3% 37.4% 1B $4,400 1B $5,000 1B $9,600
4 Adam Duvall RIGHT 0.334 0.296 0.250 33.6% 5.3% 26.4% 30.8% OF $4,000 OF $4,400 IF/OF $8,400
5 Scooter Gennett LEFT 0.390 0.338 0.266 38.5% 6.7% 21.6% 41.7% 2B $2,900 2B/OF $3,900 2B $7,600
6 Eugenio Suarez RIGHT 0.354 0.343 0.200 30.8% 13.1% 22.3% 41.5% 3B $3,700 3B $4,200 3B $8,000
7 Scott Schebler LEFT 0.333 0.369 0.256 39.7% 9.8% 22.3% 42.9% OF $2,700 OF $3,600 RF $7,200
8 Tucker Barnhart SWITCH 0.317 0.331 0.123 34.4% 8.9% 15.2% 43.9% C $2,400 C $2,700 C $5,200
9 Homer Bailey RIGHT 0.080 0.074 0.000 0.0% 0.0% 31.3% 100.0% P $5,700 P $6,200 P $12,300

Elite Plays – Joey Votto

Secondary Plays – Billy Hamilton, Zack Cozart, Scooter Gennett, Scott Schebler

Stackability – YELLOW


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About the Author

Notorious
Derek Farnsworth (Notorious)

Derek Farnsworth (aka Notorious) is a lead RotoGrinders Expert and one of the most recognizable names and faces in all of DFS. Before joining the RotoGrinders team, Derek received a Master’s Degree from the University of Utah. When he’s not busy providing content, he’s dominating the DFS industry as evidenced by his consistent top rankings in several sports and multiple Live Final appearances. Noto provides expert NBA, NFL, MLB, and PGA analysis for RotoGrinders Premium members on a daily basis and has also been nominated for five different Fantasy Sports Writer’s Association (FSWA) awards. Follow Noto on Twitter – @RG_Notorious