MLB Grind Down: Tuesday, August 21st
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The RotoGrinders MLB Grind Down will give you an in-depth analysis into the upcoming MLB schedule. This article will break down the numbers for every single game and give you analysis on which trends you can exploit. While matchups are a major factor in daily fantasy baseball, there are plenty of other factors to consider such as injuries, weather, and salaries.
The analysis should point you in the right direction, but it is still up to you to decipher the information and make your own selections. No sport has more variance than baseball. The best choice is not always the right choice but following the trends will win you money over time.
Note: As always, if you want to try a new DFS site, be sure to click through a RotoGrinders link and use our DraftKings promo code, FanDuel promo code, and FantasyDraft promo code to receive the best perks in the industry.
Stackability Rating System:
GREEN – A viable full stack in cash games and GPPs.
YELLOW – A viable mini-stack in cash games and full stack in GPPs.
ORANGE – A viable stack in large field GPPs.
RED – Not a recommended stack for cash games or GPPs.
LA Dodgers at Pittsburgh – 7:05 PM ET
LA Dodgers | Pittsburgh | ||||||||||||||
Brock Stewart | Jameson Taillon | ||||||||||||||
RIGHT | RIGHT | ||||||||||||||
Vegas Moneyline | Vegas Over/Under | ||||||||||||||
PIT-105 | 9.0 | ||||||||||||||
Stats | wOBA | xwOBA | HC% | BB% | K% | GB% | Stats | wOBA | xwOBA | HC% | BB% | K% | GB% | ||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
SP vs. Left (2016-17) | 0.306 | 0.269 | 30.9% | 7.4% | 21.1% | 32.8% | SP vs. Left (2016-17) | 0.340 | 0.320 | 30.6% | 7.5% | 16.7% | 52.5% | ||
SP vs. Right (2016-17) | 0.333 | 0.298 | 26.7% | 10.1% | 16.8% | 46.4% | SP vs. Right (2016-17) | 0.309 | 0.271 | 33.2% | 4.3% | 26.0% | 48.6% |
Pitcher Grind Down
Brock Stewart | |||||||||
FanDuel | DraftKings | FantasyDraft | |||||||
Salary: | $5,500 | Salary: | $5,300 | Salary: | $10,500 | ||||
Salary Rank: | 28 of 30 | Salary Rank: | 27 of 30 | Salary Rank: | 27 of 30 | ||||
Stats | Starts | SIERA | ERA | K% | BB% | GB% | HC% | SC% | |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
2016 | 5 | 4.62 | 5.79 | 19.8% | 9.5% | 42.0% | 33.7% | 23.6% | |
2017 | 2 | 4.76 | 1.64 | 17.1% | 8.0% | 38.1% | 21.5% | 26.2% | |
L30 | 2 | 6.07 | 4.00 | 11.6% | 9.3% | 31.3% | 23.5% | 29.4% |
We have a double-header today in Philadelphia, but neither game is included in the main slate. We’ll focus on the other 14 games and we’ll start with the hottest team in baseball right now. The Dodgers are currently sitting on 88 wins, which is 12 more than any other team in baseball (Astros have 76). Tonight’s game against the Pirates is basically set as a pick ‘em with an over/under of 9.0 runs. Stewart has yet to throw more than 66 pitches in any outing this season and will likely be on a pitch count again tonight. He has shown some strikeout potential in the minors, but we have yet to see it at the major league level. It certainly doesn’t help that the Pirates have the second lowest strikeout rate against right-handed pitching this season.
Quick Breakdown: In a full slate with plenty of options, Stewart is an easy fade in a road start against the Pirates.
Jameson Taillon | |||||||||
FanDuel | DraftKings | FantasyDraft | |||||||
Salary: | $7,400 | Salary: | $7,200 | Salary: | $14,400 | ||||
Salary Rank: | 10 of 30 | Salary Rank: | 14 of 30 | Salary Rank: | 14 of 30 | ||||
Stats | Starts | SIERA | ERA | K% | BB% | GB% | HC% | SC% | |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
2016 | 18 | 3.61 | 3.38 | 20.3% | 4.1% | 52.4% | 33.2% | 17.3% | |
2017 | 18 | 3.97 | 4.64 | 22.8% | 7.5% | 48.6% | 30.5% | 23.4% | |
L30 | 5 | 4.17 | 9.38 | 22.0% | 6.8% | 39.5% | 32.5% | 21.7% |
Last night was a great example of why we don’t take pitchers against the Dodgers and why it can be hard to trust Gerrit Cole. After sailing through the first six innings, the Dodgers put up a quick five runs on Cole in the seventh, which ended his night and his shot at being a top performer in DFS. Taillon has a lot of tools that we look for in a pitcher – an above-average strikeout rate (23%), a high ground ball rate (49%), and an ability to induce soft and medium contact, but we don’t need to force anyone into our lineups in a 14-game slate. He’s a tough sell against the Dodgers, who are ranked fourth in team wOBA against right-handed pitching this season.
Quick Breakdown: Taillon is a boom or bust tournament flier in this slate, but there are better options available.
Batter Grind Down
LA Dodgers
The Dodgers aren’t playing in the best of parks and they don’t draw a particularly favorable matchup. However, they still have a relatively high implied run total, which goes to show how much respect Vegas has for their offense. From a fantasy perspective, I see the Dodgers as secondary plays at best. They have plenty of talent in their lineup, but they are all priced up and they are facing a ground ball pitcher in Jameson Taillon, who has held both left and right-handed hitters under a .320 xwOBA since the start of last season.
Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)
# | Player | Bats | wOBA | xwOBA | ISO | HC% | BB% | K% | GB% | FD Pos. | FD Sal. | DK Pos. | DK Sal. | FDRFT Pos. | FDRFT Sal. |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
1 | Chris Taylor | RIGHT | 0.397 | 0.350 | 0.248 | 36.8% | 9.9% | 26.2% | 40.4% | OF | $3,900 | 2B/OF | $4,900 | 2B | $9,600 |
2 | Corey Seager | LEFT | 0.371 | 0.395 | 0.191 | 47.6% | 14.0% | 21.3% | 41.5% | SS | $3,700 | SS | $4,700 | SS | $9,300 |
3 | Justin Turner | RIGHT | 0.369 | 0.382 | 0.146 | 34.9% | 10.9% | 10.1% | 29.9% | 3B | $3,700 | 3B | $4,700 | 3B | $9,300 |
4 | Curtis Granderson | LEFT | 0.354 | 0.348 | 0.270 | 34.8% | 14.7% | 22.1% | 29.0% | OF | $3,400 | OF | $4,900 | CF | $9,600 |
5 | Yasmani Grandal | SWITCH | 0.343 | 0.296 | 0.234 | 36.7% | 6.7% | 26.3% | 40.5% | C | $3,100 | C | $4,000 | C | $7,600 |
6 | Yasiel Puig | RIGHT | 0.369 | 0.354 | 0.257 | 36.1% | 9.6% | 19.9% | 46.3% | OF | $2,700 | OF | $3,600 | RF | $7,200 |
7 | Adrian Gonzalez | LEFT | 0.283 | 0.307 | 0.104 | 33.9% | 6.7% | 16.0% | 34.8% | 1B | $2,400 | 1B | $3,400 | 1B | $6,600 |
8 | Logan Forsythe | RIGHT | 0.266 | 0.293 | 0.041 | 29.8% | 14.1% | 26.7% | 47.9% | 2B | $3,000 | 2B/3B | $3,500 | 2B | $6,800 |
9 | Brock Stewart | RIGHT | 0.000 | 0.236 | 0.000 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 33.3% | 0.0% | P | $5,500 | P | $5,300 | P | $10,500 |
Elite Plays – None
Secondary Plays – Corey Seager, Curtis Granderson, Yasmani Grandal
Stackability – ORANGE
Pittsburgh
Even though Brock Stewart is still an unknown quantity at the major league level, he’s not a pitcher that we want to go out of our way to target. He has been dominant in the minors this season and the Pirates’ offense leaves much to be desired. If you look at the projected starter table below, you will see that the Pirates don’t have a single hitter with an elite xwOBA (the box would be blue) against right-handed pitching this season. As you will soon see, there are some truly great matchups that we can exploit tonight, so we don’t need to waste too many roster spots in this game.
Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)
# | Player | Bats | wOBA | xwOBA | ISO | HC% | BB% | K% | GB% | FD Pos. | FD Sal. | DK Pos. | DK Sal. | FDRFT Pos. | FDRFT Sal. |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
1 | Starling Marte | RIGHT | 0.347 | 0.337 | 0.115 | 27.4% | 6.2% | 17.2% | 49.5% | OF | $3,800 | OF | $4,900 | CF | $9,600 |
2 | Josh Harrison | RIGHT | 0.326 | 0.319 | 0.147 | 31.9% | 4.7% | 16.1% | 35.5% | 2B | $3,200 | 2B/3B | $4,400 | 2B | $8,400 |
3 | Andrew McCutchen | RIGHT | 0.339 | 0.346 | 0.160 | 32.5% | 10.9% | 18.1% | 42.8% | OF | $3,400 | OF | $4,600 | RF | $8,800 |
4 | Josh Bell | SWITCH | 0.352 | 0.340 | 0.227 | 33.5% | 11.2% | 19.2% | 49.6% | 1B | $3,900 | 1B | $4,500 | IF/OF | $8,700 |
5 | David Freese | RIGHT | 0.318 | 0.344 | 0.108 | 31.9% | 11.8% | 21.3% | 55.5% | 3B | $2,900 | 3B | $3,900 | 3B | $7,600 |
6 | Adam Frazier | LEFT | 0.325 | 0.334 | 0.128 | 31.9% | 8.0% | 11.1% | 46.8% | OF | $3,300 | 2B/OF | $3,500 | IF/OF | $6,800 |
7 | Jordy Mercer | RIGHT | 0.315 | 0.308 | 0.148 | 28.1% | 9.6% | 14.8% | 46.7% | SS | $2,200 | SS | $2,900 | SS | $5,600 |
8 | Chris Stewart | RIGHT | 0.238 | 0.258 | 0.037 | 30.9% | 4.5% | 17.0% | 34.8% | C | $2,000 | C | $2,000 | C | $4,000 |
9 | Jameson Taillon | RIGHT | 0.046 | 0.117 | 0.000 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 38.1% | 88.9% | P | $7,400 | P | $7,200 | P | $14,400 |
Elite Plays – None
Secondary Plays – Andrew McCutchen
Stackability – ORANGE
Oakland at Baltimore – 7:05 PM ET
Oakland | Baltimore | ||||||||||||||
Paul Blackburn | Ubaldo Jimenez | ||||||||||||||
RIGHT | RIGHT | ||||||||||||||
Vegas Moneyline | Vegas Over/Under | ||||||||||||||
BAL-163 | 11.0 | ||||||||||||||
Stats | wOBA | xwOBA | HC% | BB% | K% | GB% | Stats | wOBA | xwOBA | HC% | BB% | K% | GB% | ||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
SP vs. Left (2016-17) | 0.262 | 0.340 | 25.6% | 9.9% | 9.0% | 55.6% | SP vs. Left (2016-17) | 0.389 | 0.335 | 32.2% | 11.2% | 22.1% | 42.4% | ||
SP vs. Right (2016-17) | 0.351 | 0.312 | 25.3% | 4.4% | 10.6% | 54.3% | SP vs. Right (2016-17) | 0.324 | 0.329 | 33.6% | 10.1% | 18.6% | 50.2% |
Pitcher Grind Down
Paul Blackburn | |||||||||
FanDuel | DraftKings | FantasyDraft | |||||||
Salary: | $5,600 | Salary: | $5,200 | Salary: | $10,200 | ||||
Salary Rank: | 25 of 30 | Salary Rank: | 28 of 30 | Salary Rank: | 28 of 30 | ||||
Stats | Starts | SIERA | ERA | K% | BB% | GB% | HC% | SC% | |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
2017 | 9 | 5.23 | 3.46 | 9.8% | 7.1% | 54.9% | 25.4% | 17.8% | |
L30 | 6 | 5.09 | 4.37 | 9.6% | 6.9% | 55.4% | 25.4% | 17.2% |
Every time I hear the name Blackburn, I think of the Pirates of the Caribbean movies. I’m not even sure if there is a character in those movies with the name of Blackburn (haven’t seen the movies in years), but that’s what comes to mind. This Blackburn has had a rough time navigating the major leagues seas, posting a 5.23 SIERA with a strikeout rate under 10% this season. He does a nice job of inducing ground balls, but as we often mention in this article, a high ground ball rate with a low strikeout rate will usually lead to a lot of hits. There isn’t nearly enough upside for Blackburn tonight against the Orioles.
Quick Breakdown: As a large underdog on the road, Blackburn has little to no fantasy appeal.
Ubaldo Jimenez | |||||||||
FanDuel | DraftKings | FantasyDraft | |||||||
Salary: | $6,900 | Salary: | $7,700 | Salary: | $15,300 | ||||
Salary Rank: | 15 of 30 | Salary Rank: | 11 of 30 | Salary Rank: | 10 of 30 | ||||
Stats | Starts | SIERA | ERA | K% | BB% | GB% | HC% | SC% | |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
2016 | 25 | 4.75 | 5.44 | 19.6% | 11.3% | 49.0% | 30.9% | 19.2% | |
2017 | 20 | 4.62 | 6.47 | 20.7% | 9.7% | 44.6% | 35.5% | 18.7% | |
L30 | 6 | 3.70 | 5.08 | 26.2% | 6.7% | 43.9% | 37.8% | 24.5% |
In his last start against the A’s, Jimenez struck out 11 batters in just over five innings of work. I actually recommended him in that start because I loved the ballpark. You can make mistakes in Oakland and get away with them more often than you can in Camden Yards. The strikeout upside is still present for Jimenez in this spot, as the A’s have the fourth highest k-rate of any team in baseball against right-handed pitching. The run support should also be there with Paul Blackburn pitching opposite him. The question is whether or not Ubaldo is worth the price tag. For my money, he seems a bit overpriced given his volatility.
Quick Breakdown: Like many pitchers in this slate, you can make a case for Jimenez as a GPP dart, but he’s not a core target.
Batter Grind Down
Oakland
The A’s see a favorable ballpark shift playing in Baltimore and they draw a favorable matchup against Ubaldo Jimenez. Since the start of last season, Jimenez has allowed a .329+ xwOBA and a 32%+ hard contact rate to both left and right-handed hitters. He has also allowed a stolen base every six innings, which is the highest mark in the slate. What happens in this matchup is going to come down to contact. If the A’s can make good contact, they should have no issues scoring runs. If they continue to strikeout at a 25% clip, they could end up stranding their runners yet again.
Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)
# | Player | Bats | wOBA | xwOBA | ISO | HC% | BB% | K% | GB% | FD Pos. | FD Sal. | DK Pos. | DK Sal. | FDRFT Pos. | FDRFT Sal. |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
1 | Boog Powell | LEFT | 0.260 | 0.247 | 0.022 | 23.5% | 11.5% | 23.1% | 59.4% | OF | $2,300 | OF | $2,800 | CF | $5,600 |
2 | Jed Lowrie | SWITCH | 0.346 | 0.368 | 0.180 | 37.2% | 9.6% | 15.1% | 27.2% | 2B | $3,000 | 2B | $3,800 | 2B | $7,500 |
3 | Matt Joyce | LEFT | 0.342 | 0.362 | 0.234 | 32.3% | 13.4% | 20.4% | 33.2% | OF | $3,500 | OF | $4,100 | RF | $8,000 |
4 | Khris Davis | RIGHT | 0.365 | 0.380 | 0.301 | 40.5% | 10.1% | 31.4% | 39.2% | OF | $3,700 | OF | $4,400 | LF | $8,400 |
5 | Ryon Healy | RIGHT | 0.291 | 0.304 | 0.172 | 36.5% | 3.6% | 25.7% | 44.9% | 1B | $3,000 | 1B/3B | $3,600 | 3B | $7,200 |
6 | Matt Olson | LEFT | 0.378 | 0.348 | 0.333 | 42.9% | 10.7% | 32.0% | 46.3% | 1B | $2,400 | 1B/OF | $3,700 | LF | $7,200 |
7 | Matt Chapman | RIGHT | 0.364 | 0.289 | 0.324 | 39.4% | 9.8% | 31.1% | 32.4% | 3B | $2,800 | 3B | $3,200 | 3B | $6,400 |
8 | Chad Pinder | RIGHT | 0.341 | 0.338 | 0.258 | 36.7% | 4.2% | 30.1% | 42.2% | OF | $2,200 | 2B/SS | $3,000 | 2B | $6,000 |
9 | Bruce Maxwell | LEFT | 0.292 | 0.301 | 0.078 | 35.6% | 13.9% | 22.6% | 46.0% | C | $2,000 | C | $2,200 | C | $4,200 |
Elite Plays – Matt Joyce
Secondary Plays – Boog Powell, Jed Lowrie, Khris Davis, Matt Olson
Stackability – YELLOW
Baltimore
The Orioles have far and away the highest implied run total in the slate. They were extremely chalky last night, but that had a lot to do with the number of games on the schedule. I still expect them to be popular tonight, but as long as the ownership isn’t too outrageous, I will be firing a few Orioles’ stacks in tournaments. They are playing at home in a good ballpark and they are facing a rookie pitcher that has a strikeout rate below 10%. When the O’s aren’t striking out, they tend to hit the ball hard. This is one of my favorite stacks in the slate and a few of their hitters are viable in cash games as well.
Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)
# | Player | Bats | wOBA | xwOBA | ISO | HC% | BB% | K% | GB% | FD Pos. | FD Sal. | DK Pos. | DK Sal. | FDRFT Pos. | FDRFT Sal. |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
1 | Tim Beckham | RIGHT | 0.353 | 0.320 | 0.197 | 43.4% | 5.3% | 29.7% | 47.2% | SS | $3,500 | SS | $4,700 | SS | $9,300 |
2 | Manny Machado | RIGHT | 0.332 | 0.360 | 0.217 | 37.2% | 7.9% | 16.5% | 42.2% | 3B | $4,000 | 3B | $5,500 | 3B | $10,800 |
3 | Jonathan Schoop | RIGHT | 0.360 | 0.311 | 0.211 | 32.0% | 4.5% | 20.3% | 41.5% | 2B | $3,500 | 2B | $4,700 | 2B | $9,300 |
4 | Adam Jones | RIGHT | 0.333 | 0.309 | 0.188 | 31.1% | 3.5% | 17.5% | 45.1% | OF | $3,000 | OF | $4,400 | CF | $8,400 |
5 | Trey Mancini | RIGHT | 0.384 | 0.349 | 0.268 | 34.7% | 6.6% | 23.4% | 53.1% | OF | $3,000 | 1B/OF | $3,600 | IF/OF | $7,200 |
6 | Chris Davis | LEFT | 0.325 | 0.333 | 0.243 | 43.5% | 12.7% | 34.9% | 33.1% | 1B | $3,400 | 1B | $4,200 | IF/OF | $8,100 |
7 | Mark Trumbo | RIGHT | 0.301 | 0.315 | 0.173 | 31.2% | 8.1% | 23.7% | 42.6% | OF | $3,400 | OF | $4,100 | IF/OF | $8,000 |
8 | Welington Castillo | RIGHT | 0.327 | 0.322 | 0.195 | 35.5% | 6.4% | 25.6% | 42.0% | C | $2,700 | C | $3,500 | C | $6,900 |
9 | Seth Smith | LEFT | 0.348 | 0.359 | 0.192 | 37.4% | 9.7% | 20.0% | 41.9% | OF | $2,600 | OF | $3,700 | LF | $7,200 |
Elite Plays – Tim Beckham, Manny Machado
Secondary Plays – Jonathan Schoop, Adam Jones, Trey Mancini, Chris Davis
Stackability – GREEN
Arizona at NY Mets – 7:10 PM ET
Arizona | NY Mets | ||||||||||||||
Patrick Corbin | Tommy Milone | ||||||||||||||
LEFT | LEFT | ||||||||||||||
Vegas Moneyline | Vegas Over/Under | ||||||||||||||
ARI-157 | 9.0 | ||||||||||||||
Stats | wOBA | xwOBA | HC% | BB% | K% | GB% | Stats | wOBA | xwOBA | HC% | BB% | K% | GB% | ||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
SP vs. Left (2016-17) | 0.310 | 0.303 | 35.1% | 7.8% | 30.4% | 53.3% | SP vs. Left (2016-17) | 0.317 | 0.317 | 39.2% | 5.1% | 19.2% | 32.9% | ||
SP vs. Right (2016-17) | 0.359 | 0.341 | 35.7% | 8.0% | 17.2% | 51.3% | SP vs. Right (2016-17) | 0.391 | 0.378 | 32.3% | 7.1% | 15.9% | 45.0% |
Pitcher Grind Down
Patrick Corbin | |||||||||
FanDuel | DraftKings | FantasyDraft | |||||||
Salary: | $8,700 | Salary: | $9,400 | Salary: | $18,000 | ||||
Salary Rank: | 4 of 30 | Salary Rank: | 4 of 30 | Salary Rank: | 4 of 30 | ||||
Stats | Starts | SIERA | ERA | K% | BB% | GB% | HC% | SC% | |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
2016 | 24 | 4.38 | 5.15 | 18.7% | 9.4% | 53.8% | 38.5% | 15.2% | |
2017 | 25 | 4.00 | 4.25 | 21.8% | 6.4% | 49.3% | 32.4% | 18.4% | |
L30 | 5 | 3.86 | 3.56 | 24.4% | 6.7% | 43.8% | 30.4% | 19.6% |
I was excited to see Corbin listed as a probable starter tonight until I saw his salaries across the industry. His recent stretch of form has led to an inflated price point. Over his last five starts, he has a 3.86 SIERA with a strikeout rate of 24% and a walk rate of 7%. He has really cut down on his hard contact allowed this season and he draws an exploitable matchup against the Mets, who have a completely different offense than they did earlier in the season. The likes of Juan Lagares, Amed Rosario, and Dominic Smith aren’t nearly as intimidating as Jay Bruce and Curtis Granderson.
Quick Breakdown: Corbin has some tournament appeal at low ownership, but there are better values when it comes to point-per-dollar.
Tommy Milone | |||||||||
FanDuel | DraftKings | FantasyDraft | |||||||
Salary: | $6,100 | Salary: | $5,600 | Salary: | $11,200 | ||||
Salary Rank: | 20 of 30 | Salary Rank: | 23 of 30 | Salary Rank: | 23 of 30 | ||||
Stats | Starts | SIERA | ERA | K% | BB% | GB% | HC% | SC% | |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
2016 | 12 | 4.61 | 5.71 | 15.8% | 7.1% | 45.7% | 35.6% | 18.8% | |
2017 | 6 | 4.52 | 7.91 | 18.2% | 5.8% | 36.2% | 29.9% | 23.1% | |
Milone is making his seventh start of the season and his 19th in the last two years. He has not fared well during that stretch, posting a SIERA over 4.50 with a strikeout rate of only 16%. He has really struggled against right-handed hitters throughout his career and the Diamondbacks just so happen to have two of the best righties in baseball in Paul Goldschmidt and J.D. Martinez.
Quick Breakdown: There is more downside than upside for Milone in this spot, which is why he is listed as a large underdog.
Batter Grind Down
Arizona
As mentioned above, the best way to attack Tommy Milone is with right-handed hitters. Since the start of last season, he has allowed a .378 xwOBA and a 32% hard contact rate to righties. It’s worth noting that his numbers against lefties aren’t great either, as he has allowed a .317 xwOBA and a 39% hard contact rate. The Diamondbacks are a sneaky offense to stack tonight because they have home run upside and they should come at low ownership in this ballpark.
Projected Lineup (Splits vs. LH Pitching)
# | Player | Bats | wOBA | xwOBA | ISO | HC% | BB% | K% | GB% | FD Pos. | FD Sal. | DK Pos. | DK Sal. | FDRFT Pos. | FDRFT Sal. |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
1 | David Peralta | LEFT | 0.318 | 0.307 | 0.131 | 26.1% | 5.4% | 16.1% | 56.5% | OF | $3,600 | OF | $4,500 | RF | $8,800 |
2 | A.J. Pollock | RIGHT | 0.325 | 0.302 | 0.213 | 30.2% | 4.0% | 8.1% | 49.4% | OF | $3,200 | OF | $4,100 | CF | $8,100 |
3 | Paul Goldschmidt | RIGHT | 0.401 | 0.429 | 0.232 | 53.2% | 17.7% | 17.7% | 46.8% | 1B | $4,100 | 1B | $5,300 | 1B | $10,200 |
4 | J.D. Martinez | RIGHT | 0.563 | 0.494 | 0.518 | 54.8% | 16.4% | 20.9% | 26.2% | OF | $3,900 | OF | $4,800 | RF | $9,300 |
5 | Jake Lamb | LEFT | 0.259 | 0.248 | 0.194 | 28.6% | 10.6% | 37.2% | 58.9% | 3B | $3,700 | 3B | $4,500 | 3B | $8,700 |
6 | Brandon Drury | RIGHT | 0.281 | 0.285 | 0.140 | 25.0% | 2.1% | 30.2% | 50.0% | 2B | $2,500 | 2B | $3,600 | IF/OF | $7,200 |
7 | Chris Iannetta | RIGHT | 0.393 | 0.312 | 0.271 | 22.2% | 9.3% | 22.2% | 47.2% | C | $2,400 | C | $3,200 | C | $6,400 |
8 | Ketel Marte | SWITCH | 0.409 | 0.429 | 0.241 | 33.3% | 14.7% | 14.7% | 58.3% | SS | $2,700 | SS | $3,200 | SS | $6,300 |
9 | Patrick Corbin | LEFT | 0.000 | 0.029 | 0.000 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 75.0% | 100.0% | P | $8,700 | P | $9,400 | P | $18,000 |
Elite Plays – A.J. Pollock, Paul Goldschmidt, J.D. Martinez
Secondary Plays – David Peralta, Chris Iannetta, Ketel Marte
Stackability – YELLOW
NY Mets
The Mets are a team that I am bearish on moving forward. I plan to have as little exposure to them as possible because they have nothing to play for and are one of the few teams that failed to live up to expectations this season. Tonight’s matchup against Patrick Corbin isn’t a great one, as he comes into the game in great form over the last month of play. Corbin has struggled with right-handed hitters in his career, but Asdrubal Cabrera, Yoenis Cespedes, and Wilmer Flores are all secondary options at their respective positions.
Projected Lineup (Splits vs. LH Pitching)
# | Player | Bats | wOBA | xwOBA | ISO | HC% | BB% | K% | GB% | FD Pos. | FD Sal. | DK Pos. | DK Sal. | FDRFT Pos. | FDRFT Sal. |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
1 | Juan Lagares | RIGHT | 0.323 | 0.293 | 0.154 | 36.4% | 4.5% | 18.2% | 37.5% | OF | $2,000 | OF | $2,700 | CF | $5,400 |
2 | Asdrubal Cabrera | SWITCH | 0.358 | 0.314 | 0.083 | 36.6% | 5.0% | 13.9% | 51.9% | 3B | $2,500 | 2B/SS | $2,900 | SS | $5,600 |
3 | Yoenis Cespedes | RIGHT | 0.321 | 0.338 | 0.268 | 44.4% | 8.8% | 22.5% | 27.8% | OF | $3,600 | OF | $4,300 | LF | $8,400 |
4 | Wilmer Flores | RIGHT | 0.341 | 0.295 | 0.258 | 40.5% | 2.0% | 17.3% | 35.4% | 2B | $3,200 | 1B/3B | $3,600 | 3B | $7,200 |
5 | Michael Conforto | LEFT | 0.328 | 0.336 | 0.247 | 42.9% | 7.8% | 35.9% | 35.7% | OF | $3,800 | OF | $4,300 | LF | $8,400 |
6 | Travis d’Arnaud | RIGHT | 0.374 | 0.324 | 0.234 | 34.7% | 11.1% | 20.8% | 53.1% | C | $2,300 | C | $2,800 | C | $5,400 |
7 | Amed Rosario | RIGHT | 0.378 | 0.326 | 0.231 | 22.2% | 7.1% | 28.6% | 44.4% | SS | $2,200 | SS | $2,700 | SS | $5,400 |
8 | Dominic Smith | LEFT | 0.000 | 0.312 | 0.000 | 50.0% | 0.0% | 33.3% | 100.0% | 1B | $2,400 | 1B | $2,800 | 1B | $5,400 |
9 | Tommy Milone | LEFT | P | $6,100 | P | $5,600 | P | $11,200 |
Elite Plays – None
Secondary Plays – Asdrubal Cabrera, Yoenis Cespedes, Wilmer Flores
Stackability – ORANGE
Boston at Cleveland – 7:10 PM ET
Boston | Cleveland | ||||||||||||||
Doug Fister | Carlos Carrasco | ||||||||||||||
RIGHT | RIGHT | ||||||||||||||
Vegas Moneyline | Vegas Over/Under | ||||||||||||||
CLE-190 | 8.5 | ||||||||||||||
Stats | wOBA | xwOBA | HC% | BB% | K% | GB% | Stats | wOBA | xwOBA | HC% | BB% | K% | GB% | ||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
SP vs. Left (2016-17) | 0.400 | 0.371 | 38.4% | 9.8% | 14.1% | 39.8% | SP vs. Left (2016-17) | 0.325 | 0.315 | 37.6% | 7.7% | 25.1% | 43.1% | ||
SP vs. Right (2016-17) | 0.272 | 0.291 | 25.2% | 7.4% | 17.4% | 51.4% | SP vs. Right (2016-17) | 0.281 | 0.278 | 31.5% | 5.0% | 27.5% | 49.2% |
Pitcher Grind Down
Doug Fister | |||||||||
FanDuel | DraftKings | FantasyDraft | |||||||
Salary: | $6,200 | Salary: | $5,900 | Salary: | $11,700 | ||||
Salary Rank: | 19 of 30 | Salary Rank: | 21 of 30 | Salary Rank: | 21 of 30 | ||||
Stats | Starts | SIERA | ERA | K% | BB% | GB% | HC% | SC% | |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
2016 | 32 | 4.97 | 4.64 | 14.8% | 8.0% | 45.3% | 31.5% | 19.7% | |
2017 | 7 | 5.05 | 5.56 | 18.9% | 11.4% | 44.0% | 36.2% | 13.8% | |
L30 | 3 | 4.22 | 4.91 | 21.1% | 8.4% | 51.5% | 38.8% | 11.9% |
Fister is one of the least talented pitchers in the slate and he draws one of the worst matchups. That’s an awfully tough combination to overcome. Since the start of last season, Fister has a SIERA close to 5.00 with a strikeout rate of 16%. He allows a lot of hard contact and he isn’t particularly good with his command. He should be avoided in a road start against the Indians, who are ranked eighth in team wOBA and seventh in strikeout rate against right-handed pitching this season.
Quick Breakdown: Fister is one of the many pitchers that we can easily cross off our list of potential targets tonight.
Carlos Carrasco | |||||||||
FanDuel | DraftKings | FantasyDraft | |||||||
Salary: | $9,300 | Salary: | $11,700 | Salary: | $22,800 | ||||
Salary Rank: | 2 of 30 | Salary Rank: | 2 of 30 | Salary Rank: | 2 of 30 | ||||
Stats | Starts | SIERA | ERA | K% | BB% | GB% | HC% | SC% | |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
2016 | 25 | 3.44 | 3.32 | 25.0% | 5.7% | 48.5% | 36.4% | 16.0% | |
2017 | 24 | 3.51 | 3.76 | 27.9% | 6.8% | 44.1% | 31.9% | 17.3% | |
L30 | 5 | 3.57 | 4.39 | 27.7% | 7.1% | 44.9% | 35.2% | 19.7% |
Carrasco is one of the more intriguing plays in the slate. While he has as much talent as any other pitcher taking the mound, he doesn’t have great splits at home and he is facing a low-strikeout Red Sox offense. When we have these big slates, I want to feel very confident in my starting pitcher selections and I just don’t have that feeling with Carrasco tonight. I’m not saying that he is a bad play by any means, but dollar for dollar, there are at least a handful of pitchers that I would rather target tonight. The Red Sox like to drive up pitch counts and they have the fourth lowest strikeout rate against right-handed pitching this season.
Quick Breakdown: The matchup, the high salary, and bad splits at home are enough to scare me away from Carrasco tonight.
Batter Grind Down
Boston
Watching a game from the sidelines is never a bad approach in these large slates, especially when you don’t feel great about the starting pitcher or the offense that he is facing. Carlos Carrasco is a bit too expensive for my liking, but I won’t be targeting any Red Sox hitters either. Since the start of last season, Carrasco has held both left and right-handed hitters under a .315 xwOBA. He also has an elite strikeout rate and is listed a large favorite tonight.
Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)
# | Player | Bats | wOBA | xwOBA | ISO | HC% | BB% | K% | GB% | FD Pos. | FD Sal. | DK Pos. | DK Sal. | FDRFT Pos. | FDRFT Sal. |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
1 | Eduardo Nunez | RIGHT | 0.349 | 0.271 | 0.133 | 25.7% | 2.8% | 10.7% | 54.1% | 2B | $3,200 | 3B/OF | $3,900 | 3B | $7,600 |
2 | Mookie Betts | RIGHT | 0.333 | 0.325 | 0.190 | 35.5% | 9.2% | 11.5% | 40.1% | OF | $3,900 | OF | $4,400 | RF | $8,700 |
3 | Andrew Benintendi | LEFT | 0.353 | 0.347 | 0.189 | 38.2% | 10.3% | 16.0% | 37.2% | OF | $3,700 | OF | $4,000 | LF | $7,600 |
4 | Hanley Ramirez | RIGHT | 0.328 | 0.358 | 0.169 | 34.6% | 8.7% | 18.7% | 41.6% | 1B | $3,000 | 1B | $3,600 | 1B | $7,200 |
5 | Rafael Devers | LEFT | 0.460 | 0.380 | 0.389 | 41.9% | 11.5% | 18.0% | 48.8% | 3B | $3,500 | 3B | $4,200 | 3B | $8,100 |
6 | Xander Bogaerts | RIGHT | 0.318 | 0.266 | 0.136 | 31.1% | 7.0% | 18.8% | 47.9% | SS | $3,100 | SS | $3,700 | SS | $7,200 |
7 | Mitch Moreland | LEFT | 0.329 | 0.379 | 0.190 | 41.6% | 10.7% | 22.7% | 39.3% | 1B | $3,000 | 1B | $3,500 | 1B | $6,800 |
8 | Christian Vazquez | RIGHT | 0.307 | 0.268 | 0.087 | 27.2% | 5.3% | 18.2% | 48.1% | C | $2,500 | C | $3,000 | C | $6,000 |
9 | Jackie Bradley Jr. | LEFT | 0.302 | 0.326 | 0.160 | 37.6% | 9.3% | 24.3% | 40.7% | OF | $3,300 | OF | $3,600 | CF | $7,200 |
Elite Plays – None
Secondary Plays – None
Stackability – RED
Cleveland
There is a decent chance that the Indians get overlooked tonight and I really hope that’s the case. When looking at implied run totals, theirs is currently the eighth highest on the board. It’s low enough that most people won’t think twice about a Cleveland stack, even though their matchup against Doug Fister is an exploitable one. Since the start of last season, Fister has allowed a .371 xwOBA and a 38% hard contact rate to left-handed hitters. The Indians have a plethora of lefties to throw at Fister tonight, including five of their first six batters in the lineup.
Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)
# | Player | Bats | wOBA | xwOBA | ISO | HC% | BB% | K% | GB% | FD Pos. | FD Sal. | DK Pos. | DK Sal. | FDRFT Pos. | FDRFT Sal. |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
1 | Francisco Lindor | SWITCH | 0.301 | 0.314 | 0.184 | 31.4% | 7.3% | 14.1% | 39.5% | SS | $3,700 | SS | $4,600 | SS | $8,800 |
2 | Jason Kipnis | LEFT | 0.307 | 0.311 | 0.199 | 31.8% | 7.2% | 20.2% | 30.0% | 2B | $3,300 | 2B | $4,400 | 2B | $8,400 |
3 | Jose Ramirez | SWITCH | 0.385 | 0.347 | 0.242 | 33.0% | 8.1% | 11.2% | 38.9% | 3B | $3,100 | 2B/3B | $4,800 | IF/OF | $9,300 |
4 | Edwin Encarnacion | RIGHT | 0.364 | 0.382 | 0.258 | 37.6% | 13.1% | 20.7% | 35.0% | 1B | $3,900 | 1B | $5,100 | 1B | $10,000 |
5 | Jay Bruce | LEFT | 0.382 | 0.380 | 0.286 | 43.2% | 9.8% | 21.6% | 32.9% | OF | $4,000 | OF | $4,800 | RF | $9,200 |
6 | Carlos Santana | SWITCH | 0.356 | 0.381 | 0.210 | 37.6% | 14.0% | 19.6% | 32.9% | 1B | $3,600 | 1B | $5,000 | 1B | $9,900 |
7 | Austin Jackson | RIGHT | 0.331 | 0.303 | 0.109 | 41.1% | 8.7% | 21.2% | 47.2% | OF | $3,100 | OF | $3,600 | CF | $7,200 |
8 | Bradley Zimmer | LEFT | 0.313 | 0.310 | 0.176 | 36.2% | 9.7% | 30.4% | 43.9% | OF | $2,300 | OF | $3,800 | CF | $7,500 |
9 | Yan Gomes | RIGHT | 0.277 | 0.281 | 0.103 | 26.2% | 9.1% | 26.3% | 40.3% | C | $2,300 | C | $3,200 | C | $6,400 |
Elite Plays – Francisco Lindor, Jose Ramirez (FD)
Secondary Plays – Jason Kipnis, Jose Ramirez (DK), Edwin Encarnacion, Jay Bruce, Carlos Santana
Stackability – YELLOW / GREEN
Chicago Cubs at Cincinnati – 7:10 PM ET
Chicago Cubs | Cincinnati | ||||||||||||||
John Lackey | Homer Bailey | ||||||||||||||
RIGHT | RIGHT | ||||||||||||||
Vegas Moneyline | Vegas Over/Under | ||||||||||||||
CHC-150 | 10.5 | ||||||||||||||
Stats | wOBA | xwOBA | HC% | BB% | K% | GB% | Stats | wOBA | xwOBA | HC% | BB% | K% | GB% | ||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
SP vs. Left (2016-17) | 0.339 | 0.350 | 33.5% | 9.4% | 18.8% | 43.9% | SP vs. Left (2016-17) | 0.397 | 0.378 | 36.6% | 11.5% | 16.7% | 43.8% | ||
SP vs. Right (2016-17) | 0.281 | 0.302 | 34.2% | 5.6% | 25.4% | 40.0% | SP vs. Right (2016-17) | 0.409 | 0.364 | 25.0% | 8.5% | 19.5% | 44.4% |
Pitcher Grind Down
John Lackey | |||||||||
FanDuel | DraftKings | FantasyDraft | |||||||
Salary: | $7,400 | Salary: | $8,300 | Salary: | $16,000 | ||||
Salary Rank: | 10 of 30 | Salary Rank: | 8 of 30 | Salary Rank: | 8 of 30 | ||||
Stats | Starts | SIERA | ERA | K% | BB% | GB% | HC% | SC% | |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
2016 | 29 | 3.83 | 3.35 | 24.1% | 7.1% | 41.0% | 34.4% | 16.2% | |
2017 | 23 | 4.50 | 4.67 | 20.2% | 7.6% | 42.7% | 33.3% | 15.3% | |
L30 | 5 | 4.33 | 3.29 | 23.3% | 9.2% | 42.1% | 19.7% | 15.8% |
Lackey has shown some decent form in his last five starts, but his numbers on the season have taken a dip. Father time finally seems to be catching up to him. In 23 starts, he owns a 4.50 SIERA with a strikeout rate of 20%. Those numbers aren’t terrible, but he’s a pitcher that has always given up a lot of medium and hard contact. Now that his strikeout rate is down, it has led to more extra-base hits and more runs against him. I’m not a fan of targeting pitchers in the Great American Ballpark and I won’t be making an exception for Lackey.
Quick Breakdown: The risk outweighs the upside for Lackey tonight against the Reds.
Homer Bailey | |||||||||
FanDuel | DraftKings | FantasyDraft | |||||||
Salary: | $5,700 | Salary: | $6,200 | Salary: | $12,300 | ||||
Salary Rank: | 24 of 30 | Salary Rank: | 18 of 30 | Salary Rank: | 18 of 30 | ||||
Stats | Starts | SIERA | ERA | K% | BB% | GB% | HC% | SC% | |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
2016 | 6 | 3.55 | 6.65 | 24.3% | 6.3% | 45.2% | 30.7% | 16.0% | |
2017 | 11 | 5.43 | 8.44 | 15.6% | 11.4% | 43.7% | 30.3% | 16.5% | |
L30 | 6 | 5.63 | 7.31 | 15.6% | 12.3% | 41.5% | 30.3% | 18.4% |
Bailey isn’t as bad as his 8.44 ERA suggests, but he’s certainly not good. He still owns a 5.43 SIERA with a walk rate (11%) that is nearly as high as his strikeout rate (16%). He comes into tonight’s game as a large underdog with the total set at 10.5 runs. Chicago is going to be a popular stack tonight and for good reason. Not only has Bailey allowed a lot of home runs this season, but he’s also struggled to hold runners.
Quick Breakdown: Stay far, far, far away from Bailey tonight.
Batter Grind Down
Chicago Cubs
The Cubs should be licking their chops for tonight’s matchup against Homer Bailey, who has allowed a .364+ xwOBA to both left and right-handed hitters in the last two seasons. This is a truly elite matchup and the Cubs see a massive ballpark bump playing in Cincinnati, which is one of the most home run-friendly ballparks in baseball. This is one of those games that could get ugly in a hurry, which would help the Cubs’ stack even more considering how bad this Reds’ bullpen is.
Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)
# | Player | Bats | wOBA | xwOBA | ISO | HC% | BB% | K% | GB% | FD Pos. | FD Sal. | DK Pos. | DK Sal. | FDRFT Pos. | FDRFT Sal. |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
1 | Jon Jay | LEFT | 0.336 | 0.314 | 0.109 | 26.5% | 9.5% | 20.3% | 48.0% | OF | $2,600 | OF | $3,400 | CF | $6,600 |
2 | Kyle Schwarber | LEFT | 0.333 | 0.361 | 0.257 | 37.7% | 11.9% | 29.4% | 39.4% | OF | $3,500 | OF | $4,100 | IF/OF | $8,000 |
3 | Kris Bryant | RIGHT | 0.391 | 0.337 | 0.248 | 30.5% | 11.4% | 19.9% | 36.9% | 3B | $4,300 | 3B | $5,000 | IF/OF | $9,900 |
4 | Anthony Rizzo | LEFT | 0.372 | 0.392 | 0.234 | 33.7% | 13.5% | 12.5% | 38.0% | 1B | $4,500 | 1B | $5,200 | 1B | $10,200 |
5 | Ben Zobrist | SWITCH | 0.312 | 0.332 | 0.139 | 34.9% | 11.0% | 14.1% | 52.8% | OF | $3,100 | 2B/OF | $4,000 | IF/OF | $7,600 |
6 | Alex Avila | LEFT | 0.390 | 0.435 | 0.241 | 54.2% | 16.1% | 30.7% | 35.9% | C | $2,800 | 1B/C | $3,700 | C | $7,200 |
7 | Ian Happ | SWITCH | 0.367 | 0.361 | 0.310 | 34.1% | 10.8% | 28.6% | 41.6% | 2B | $3,200 | 2B/OF | $4,500 | IF/OF | $8,700 |
8 | Javier Baez | RIGHT | 0.308 | 0.289 | 0.202 | 31.8% | 5.2% | 29.9% | 47.9% | SS | $3,400 | 2B/SS | $4,100 | 2B | $8,000 |
9 | John Lackey | RIGHT | 0.143 | 0.158 | 0.030 | 13.6% | 0.0% | 37.1% | 75.0% | P | $7,400 | P | $8,300 | P | $16,000 |
Elite Plays – Jon Jay, Kyle Schwarber, Kris Bryant, Anthony Rizzo
Secondary Plays – Ben Zobrist, Alex Avila, Ian Happ
Stackability – GREEN
Cincinnati
The Cubs are going to get all of the attention in this game, even though the Reds draw a nice matchup as well. John Lackey gives up a lot of medium and hard contact, which might not bode well in this small ballpark. Since the start of last season, Lackey has allowed a .350 xwOBA and a 34% hard contact rate to left-handed hitters. In addition to mashing right-handed pitching all season, Joey Votto already has two home runs against Lackey in his career. He will look to make it three tonight. Zack Cozart also has two home runs off of Lackey in only 20 at-bats.
Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)
# | Player | Bats | wOBA | xwOBA | ISO | HC% | BB% | K% | GB% | FD Pos. | FD Sal. | DK Pos. | DK Sal. | FDRFT Pos. | FDRFT Sal. |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
1 | Billy Hamilton | SWITCH | 0.297 | 0.261 | 0.090 | 16.6% | 8.7% | 20.2% | 45.7% | OF | $3,300 | OF | $4,000 | CF | $7,800 |
2 | Zack Cozart | RIGHT | 0.389 | 0.322 | 0.242 | 29.5% | 13.0% | 16.2% | 39.5% | SS | $3,400 | SS | $4,300 | SS | $8,400 |
3 | Joey Votto | LEFT | 0.435 | 0.432 | 0.271 | 38.5% | 18.7% | 11.3% | 37.4% | 1B | $4,400 | 1B | $5,000 | 1B | $9,600 |
4 | Adam Duvall | RIGHT | 0.334 | 0.296 | 0.250 | 33.6% | 5.3% | 26.4% | 30.8% | OF | $4,000 | OF | $4,400 | IF/OF | $8,400 |
5 | Scooter Gennett | LEFT | 0.390 | 0.338 | 0.266 | 38.5% | 6.7% | 21.6% | 41.7% | 2B | $2,900 | 2B/OF | $3,900 | 2B | $7,600 |
6 | Eugenio Suarez | RIGHT | 0.354 | 0.343 | 0.200 | 30.8% | 13.1% | 22.3% | 41.5% | 3B | $3,700 | 3B | $4,200 | 3B | $8,000 |
7 | Scott Schebler | LEFT | 0.333 | 0.369 | 0.256 | 39.7% | 9.8% | 22.3% | 42.9% | OF | $2,700 | OF | $3,600 | RF | $7,200 |
8 | Tucker Barnhart | SWITCH | 0.317 | 0.331 | 0.123 | 34.4% | 8.9% | 15.2% | 43.9% | C | $2,400 | C | $2,700 | C | $5,200 |
9 | Homer Bailey | RIGHT | 0.080 | 0.074 | 0.000 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 31.3% | 100.0% | P | $5,700 | P | $6,200 | P | $12,300 |