MLB Grind Down: Tuesday, May 3rd - Page Two

by Derek Farnsworth (Notorious) Last Updated 2016-05-04 05:27:33

Atlanta at NY Mets – 7:10 PM

Stats	wOBA	HR All.	K%	BB%	Stats	wOBA	HR All.	K%	BB%
Atlanta					NY Mets
			Matt Wisler					Matt Harvey
			RIGHT					RIGHT
			Vegas Moneyline					Vegas Over/Under
			NYM -225					7.0
SP vs. Left	0.408	13	10.7%	11.8%	SP vs. Left	0.302	16	24.6%	7.2%
SP vs. Right	0.270	7	20.4%	4.4%	SP vs. Right	0.249	4	22.9%	3.2%

Pitcher Grind Down

Statistics	Starts	SIERA	K%	BB%	GB%	HH%	O-K%
Matt Wisler
				FanDuel		DraftKings
				Salary:	$5,700	Salary:	$6,600
				FPPG:	19.4	FPPG:	10.7
				Pitcher Rating:	37.2	Pitcher Rank:	28
2016	4	4.28	18.1%	6.7%	43.4%	36.4%	22
2015	19	4.98	15.1%	8.4%	33.6%	28.2%	15

Wisler has allowed at least three earned runs in three of his first four starts this season, posting a 4.28 SIERA with a strikeout rate of 18.1%. The biggest issue with the Braves’ starting rotation is potential run support. Even when they pitch well, there is no guarantee of a win with that paltry offense behind them. Tonight Wisler takes on a talented Mets’ offense that averages the eighth most runs per game this season. As such a large underdog on the road, Wisler can be avoided in all league formats.

Statistics	Starts	SIERA	K%	BB%	GB%	HH%	O-K%
Matt Harvey
				FanDuel		DraftKings
				Salary:	$9,500	Salary:	$10,300
				FPPG:	25.4	FPPG:	11.5
				Pitcher Rating:	88.9	Pitcher Rank:	2
2016	5	4.32	16.9%	7.3%	43.8%	25.8%	14
2015	29	3.23	24.9%	4.9%	46.0%	26.7%	2

The question that everyone wants an answer to is what’s wrong with Harvey? Or, is there anything wrong with Harvey? He has struggled with his command a bit this season (7.3% walk rate), but he has a similar velocity. His swinging strike rate is below 10%, but I’m not too concerned about that, as his career average is 11.9%. I’m leading the Harvey is going to be just fine train and even though he allowed two runs in his last start, he looked sharp. I’m a big fan of the Dark Knight against the Braves, who are ranked 28th in team wOBA and 30th in team ISO against right-handed pitching over the last two seasons. He also gets to face them at home where he has a career 27.3% strikeout rate.

Atlanta

Braves Offense
Team wOBA vs. RHP — 0.300 (28 of 30)
Team ISO vs. RHP — 0.109 (30 of 30)
Runs Per Game — 3.29 (28 of 30)
Projected Run Total — 2.78 (30 of 30)

The Braves are one of the worst offenses in baseball. It comes as no surprise that they have the lowest team total on the board. They draw a difficult matchup against Matt Harvey, who has held both left and right-handed hitters under a .305 wOBA. I always like taking a flier on Freddie Freeman in GPPs when he is facing an elite right-handed pitcher, but the rest of the Braves can be avoided.

Projected Lineup

#	Player	Bats	wOBA vs. RHP	ISO vs. RHP	wOBA L14	FD Position	FD Salary	DK Position	DK Salary
1	Nick Markakis	LEFT	0.355	0.100	0.316	OF	$3,300	OF	$3,400
2	Daniel Castro	RIGHT	0.222	0.022	0.230	2B	$2,100	2B/SS	$2,000
3	Freddie Freeman	LEFT	0.371	0.213	0.368	1B	$3,100	1B	$3,700
4	Adonis Garcia	RIGHT	0.300	0.140	0.259	3B	$2,100	3B	$2,400
5	A.J. Pierzynski	LEFT	0.334	0.133	0.269	C	$2,100	C	$2,700
6	Erick Aybar	SWITCH	0.277	0.073	0.195	SS	$2,100	SS	$2,600
7	Jace Peterson	LEFT	0.297	0.093	0.183	2B	$2,100	2B/OF	$2,600
8	Matt Wisler	RIGHT	0.196	0.000	0.000	P	$5,700	P	$6,600
9	Mallex Smith	LEFT	0.329	0.111	0.373	OF	$2,500	OF	$3,000
	Team Averages	—	0.298	0.098	0.244	—	—	—	—

Elite Plays – NONE

Secondary Plays – Freddie Freeman (GPP)

Stackability – NONE

NY Mets

Mets Offense
Team wOBA vs. RHP — 0.308 (17 of 30)
Team ISO vs. RHP — 0.152 (10 of 30)
Runs Per Game — 4.70 (8 of 30)
Projected Run Total — 4.22 (9 of 30)

The Mets’ offense is firing on all cylinders right now. If you look at the table below, five of the eight batters in their lineup have a .400+ wOBA over the last 14 days of play. They come into tonight’s game with the ninth highest team total on the board. This is a matchup that suits their lineup well, as Matt Wisler has allowed a .408 wOBA and 13 home runs to left-handed hitters in his last 23 starts. One interesting note: Michael Conforto leads the majors in hard hit % against right-handed pitching.

Projected Lineup

#	Player	Bats	wOBA vs. RHP	ISO vs. RHP	wOBA L14	FD Position	FD Salary	DK Position	DK Salary
1	Curtis Granderson	LEFT	0.382	0.224	0.451	OF	$3,400	OF	$4,500
2	David Wright	RIGHT	0.329	0.124	0.337	3B	$3,000	3B	$4,000
3	Michael Conforto	LEFT	0.408	0.287	0.455	OF	$4,100	OF	$3,700
4	Yoenis Cespedes	RIGHT	0.386	0.273	0.492	OF	$4,400	OF	$4,600
5	Lucas Duda	LEFT	0.351	0.227	0.404	1B	$3,200	1B	$4,000
6	Neil Walker	SWITCH	0.343	0.191	0.514	2B	$4,000	2B	$4,000
7	Asdrubal Cabrera	SWITCH	0.327	0.164	0.349	SS	$2,800	SS	$3,300
8	Kevin Plawecki	RIGHT	0.260	0.056	0.197	C	$2,100	C	$2,500
9	Matt Harvey	RIGHT	0.093	0.043	0.000	P	$9,500	P	$10,300
	Team Averages	—	0.320	0.177	0.355	—	—	—	—

Elite Plays – Curtis Granderson, Michael Conforto, Lucas Duda

Secondary Plays – David Wright, Yoenis Cespedes, Neil Walker, Asdrubal Cabrera

Stackability – Cash & GPP

LA Dodgers at Tampa Bay – 7:10 PM

Stats	wOBA	HR All.	K%	BB%	Stats	wOBA	HR All.	K%	BB%
LA Dodgers					Tampa Bay
			Scott Kazmir					Matt Moore
			LEFT					LEFT
			Vegas Moneyline					Vegas Over/Under
			TB -130					7.5
SP vs. Left	0.325	8	14.5%	4.0%	SP vs. Left	0.338	5	13.9%	6.1%
SP vs. Right	0.296	17	22.1%	8.8%	SP vs. Right	0.330	8	22.3%	7.9%

Pitcher Grind Down

Statistics	Starts	SIERA	K%	BB%	GB%	HH%	O-K%
Scott Kazmir
				FanDuel		DraftKings
				Salary:	$8,000	Salary:	$8,800
				FPPG:	20.4	FPPG:	9.6
				Pitcher Rating:	54.8	Pitcher Rank:	19
2016	5	4.02	19.1%	6.4%	44.3%	20.0%	11
2015	31	4.10	20.3%	7.7%	42.9%	25.7%	22

Kazmir is coming off of a season-high six strikeouts in his last start. In 2016, he has a 4.02 SIERA with a strikeout rate of 19.1%. While the Dodgers do provide nice run support for their starters, I’m not too high on Kazmir tonight. He comes into this game as a small underdog and the Rays are sneaky-good against left-handed pitching – ranking fourth in team wOBA and third in team ISO over the last two seasons.

Statistics	Starts	SIERA	K%	BB%	GB%	HH%	O-K%
Matt Moore
				FanDuel		DraftKings
				Salary:	$7,600	Salary:	$8,600
				FPPG:	34.8	FPPG:	19.8
				Pitcher Rating:	61.8	Pitcher Rank:	16
2016	5	3.04	27.1%	5.4%	41.2%	34.1%	2
2015	12	4.67	16.6%	8.3%	39.2%	31.7%	12

Every time I see his salary, I say give me more Moore. His 2015 statistics are pulling down his price in the FanDuel and DraftKings pricing algorithms. We have to remember that he was coming off of Tommy John surgery and that he was a dominant lefty before the surgery. He appears to be regaining that form now, posting a 3.04 SIERA with a strikeout rate of 27.1% in his first five starts of the season. I never like to target pitchers against the Dodgers, but I could make an exception tonight, especially in tournaments.

Batter Grind Down

LA Dodgers

Dodgers Offense
Team wOBA vs. LHP — 0.328 (7 of 30)
Team ISO vs. LHP — 0.154 (10 of 30)
Runs Per Game — 4.08 (16 of 30)
Projected Run Total — 3.57 (27 of 30)

The Dodgers come into tonight’s game with the fourth lowest team total on the board. They may hit left-handed pitching well as a team, but Matt Moore has really pitched well this season. You could take a look at Kike Hernandez or Yasiel Puig in tournaments, but they are really the only Dodgers’ bats that stand out in this matchup.

Projected Lineup

#	Player	Bats	wOBA vs. LHP	ISO vs. LHP	wOBA L14	FD Position	FD Salary	DK Position	DK Salary
1	Kike Hernandez	RIGHT	0.516	0.337	0.191	OF	$2,100	OF	$2,900
2	Yasiel Puig	RIGHT	0.355	0.232	0.165	OF	$2,800	OF	$3,900
3	Adrian Gonzalez	LEFT	0.341	0.141	0.321	1B	$2,800	1B	$3,500
4	Yasmani Grandal	SWITCH	0.365	0.119	0.360	C	$3,000	C	$2,900
5	Justin Turner	RIGHT	0.315	0.138	0.267	3B	$2,400	3B	$2,800
6	Corey Seager	LEFT	0.350	0.191	0.302	SS	$3,700	SS	$3,400
7	Howie Kendrick	RIGHT	0.293	0.084	0.111	2B	$2,000	2B/OF	$3,200
8	Trayce Thompson	RIGHT	0.399	0.278	0.305	OF	$2,200	OF	$2,700
9	Joc Pederson	LEFT	0.287	0.172	0.391	OF	$2,600	OF	$3,000
	Team Averages	—	0.358	0.188	0.268	—	—	—	—

Elite Plays – NONE

Secondary Plays – Kike Hernandez (GPP), Yasiel Puig (GPP)

Stackability – NONE

Tampa Bay

Rays Offense
Team wOBA vs. LHP — 0.327 (4 of 30)
Team ISO vs. LHP — 0.174 (3 of 30)
Runs Per Game — 3.21 (30 of 30)
Projected Run Total — 3.93 (17 of 30)

The Rays are one of the best offenses in baseball against left-handed pitching. We don’t talk about them being the best in many offensive categories, but they do mash southpaws. They draw a mediocre matchup tonight against Scott Kazmir at home. Logan Forsythe, Brandon Guyer, and Evan Longoria all have a .370+ wOBA against left-handed pitching over the last two seasons.

Projected Lineup

#	Player	Bats	wOBA vs. LHP	ISO vs. LHP	wOBA L14	FD Position	FD Salary	DK Position	DK Salary
1	Logan Forsythe	RIGHT	0.425	0.314	0.542	2B	$3,800	2B	$4,300
2	Brandon Guyer	RIGHT	0.372	0.180	0.320	OF	$2,300	OF	$3,100
3	Evan Longoria	RIGHT	0.396	0.234	0.311	3B	$3,100	3B	$4,200
4	Steve Pearce	RIGHT	0.279	0.143	0.410	OF	$2,300	1B	$2,900
5	Desmond Jennings	RIGHT	0.267	0.059	0.160	OF	$2,300	OF	$2,900
6	Steve Souza	RIGHT	0.334	0.190	0.313	OF	$2,900	OF	$3,600
7	Tim Beckham	RIGHT	0.300	0.203	0.218	SS	$2,100	2B/SS	$2,800
8	Kevin Kiermaier	LEFT	0.276	0.109	0.411	OF	$2,800	OF	$2,800
9	Curt Casali	RIGHT	0.302	0.245	0.201	C	$2,100	C	$2,700
	Team Averages	—	0.328	0.186	0.321	—	—	—	—

Elite Plays – NONE

Secondary Plays – Logan Forsythe, Brandon Guyer, Evan Longoria

Stackability – NONE

San Francisco at Cincinnati – 7:10 PM

Stats	wOBA	HR All.	K%	BB%	Stats	wOBA	HR All.	K%	BB%
San Francisco					Cincinnati
			Jeff Samardzija					Jon Moscot
			RIGHT					RIGHT
			Vegas Moneyline					Vegas Over/Under
			SF -160					8.5
SP vs. Left	0.357	22	17.4%	6.3%	SP vs. Left	0.359	4	10.8%	15.4%
SP vs. Right	0.294	10	18.8%	5.0%	SP vs. Right	0.299	2	8.6%	6.9%

Pitcher Grind Down

Statistics	Starts	SIERA	K%	BB%	GB%	HH%	O-K%
Jeff Samardzija
				FanDuel		DraftKings
				Salary:	$8,700	Salary:	$8,200
				FPPG:	34.0	FPPG:	17.0
				Pitcher Rating:	62.8	Pitcher Rank:	15
2016	5	3.97	19.4%	7.5%	48.0%	21.4%	18
2015	32	4.18	17.9%	5.4%	39.0%	27.0%	13

I was hoping that a move to the Giants would help Samardzija become a more consistent pitcher. So far, that hasn’t been the case. After his best start of the season against the Marlins, he came out and gave up five runs to the Padres against the lowly Padres at home. At this point, it’s hard to trust Samardijza in anything other than a tournament. He draws a nice matchup tonight against the Reds, but I am looking elsewhere in cash games.

Statistics	Starts	SIERA	K%	BB%	GB%	HH%	O-K%
Jon Moscot
				FanDuel		DraftKings
				Salary:	$5,700	Salary:	$4,800
				FPPG:	14.7	FPPG:	6.5
				Pitcher Rating:	15.8	Pitcher Rank:	30
2016	3	6.25	8.2%	12.3%	36.5%	28.6%	1
2015	3	5.51	12.0%	10.0%	41.0%	18.0%	6

Moscot has not pitched well in his first six major league starts. He has a SIERA close to 6.00 with a walk rate that is higher than his strikeout rate. He is a large underdog at home against the Giants and he has to face them in the hitter-friendly Great American Ballpark. I have Moscot ranked as the worst pitching option on the board tonight.

Batter Grind Down

San Francisco

Giants Offense
Team wOBA vs. RHP — 0.321 (6 of 30)
Team ISO vs. RHP — 0.146 (17 of 30)
Runs Per Game — 5.00 (6 of 30)
Projected Run Total — 4.60 (4 of 30)

The Giants are one of the top offenses to target tonight. They have the fourth highest team total on the board, as they square off against Jon Moscot in a hitter-friendly ballpark. The sample size is small, but Moscot has allowed a .359 wOBA to right-handed hitters. He has also struggled with his command, which could result in a number of free bases for the Giants’ hitters. Don’t be afraid to load up on Giants in both cash games and tournaments.

Projected Lineup

#	Player	Bats	wOBA vs. RHP	ISO vs. RHP	wOBA L14	FD Position	FD Salary	DK Position	DK Salary
1	Denard Span	LEFT	0.377	0.148	0.357	OF	$3,300	OF	$4,600
2	Matt Duffy	RIGHT	0.339	0.147	0.376	3B	$2,900	3B	$4,300
3	Buster Posey	RIGHT	0.362	0.148	0.370	C	$3,600	C	$4,700
4	Brandon Belt	LEFT	0.362	0.193	0.365	1B	$3,700	1B	$4,800
5	Hunter Pence	RIGHT	0.376	0.216	0.452	OF	$3,700	OF	$5,100
6	Brandon Crawford	LEFT	0.342	0.215	0.255	SS	$2,800	SS	$4,100
7	Gregor Blanco	LEFT	0.341	0.127	0.578	OF	$2,200	OF	$3,600
8	Kelby Tomlinson	RIGHT	0.296	0.063	0.197	2B	$2,300	2B	$3,300
9	Jeff Samardzija	RIGHT	0.286	0.133	0.433	P	$8,700	P	$8,200
	Team Averages	—	0.342	0.154	0.376	—	—	—	—

Elite Plays – Denard Span, Buster Posey, Brandon Belt

Secondary Plays – Matt Duffy, Hunter Pence, Brandon Crawford

Stackability – Cash & GPP

Cincinnati

Reds Offense
Team wOBA vs. RHP — 0.306 (25 of 30)
Team ISO vs. RHP — 0.144 (23 of 30)
Runs Per Game — 3.72 (21 of 30)
Projected Run Total — 3.90 (18 of 30)

It’s always difficult to predict which Jeff Samardzija is going to show up. He can either be really good or really bad and oftentimes, there isn’t anything in between. The Reds have the 18th highest team total on the board tonight. While I don’t hate the matchup, I see them more as tournament plays tonight. Joey Votto would be the one player that I don’t mind using in cash games. He has a .408 wOBA against right-handed pitching over the last two seasons.

Projected Lineup

#	Player	Bats	wOBA vs. RHP	ISO vs. RHP	wOBA L14	FD Position	FD Salary	DK Position	DK Salary
1	Zack Cozart	RIGHT	0.325	0.188	0.308	SS	$3,300	SS	$3,000
2	Eugenio Suarez	RIGHT	0.312	0.155	0.256	3B	$3,000	3B	$3,900
3	Joey Votto	LEFT	0.408	0.219	0.276	1B	$3,400	1B	$4,000
4	Brandon Phillips	RIGHT	0.315	0.107	0.278	2B	$2,300	2B	$3,400
5	Jay Bruce	LEFT	0.323	0.235	0.300	OF	$3,600	OF	$3,800
6	Tucker Barnhart	SWITCH	0.310	0.091	0.343	C	$2,300	C	$2,300
7	Scott Schebler	LEFT	0.306	0.224	0.260	OF	$2,200	OF	$2,800
8	Jon Moscot	RIGHT	0.126	0.000	0.000	P	$5,700	P	$4,800
9	Billy Hamilton	SWITCH	0.241	0.041	0.245	OF	$2,500	OF	$3,500
	Team Averages	—	0.296	0.140	0.252	—	—	—	—

Elite Plays – NONE

Secondary Plays – Joey Votto, Jay Bruce

Stackability – NONE

Boston at Chicago White Sox – 8:10 PM

Stats	wOBA	HR All.	K%	BB%	Stats	wOBA	HR All.	K%	BB%
Boston					Chicago White Sox
			Steven Wright					Jose Quintana
			RIGHT					LEFT
			Vegas Moneyline					Vegas Over/Under
			CWS -140					8.0
SP vs. Left	0.297	4	17.7%	10.8%	SP vs. Left	0.269	5	22.3%	4.5%
SP vs. Right	0.302	9	18.7%	7.7%	SP vs. Right	0.317	11	21.0%	5.5%

Pitcher Grind Down

Statistics	Starts	SIERA	K%	BB%	GB%	HH%	O-K%
Steven Wright
				FanDuel		DraftKings
				Salary:	$8,500	Salary:	$7,100
				FPPG:	41.5	FPPG:	22.4
				Pitcher Rating:	55.4	Pitcher Rank:	19
2016	4	4.07	22.5%	9.9%	42.3%	30.6%	4
2015	9	4.60	16.8%	8.7%	43.2%	33.9%	16

The Red Sox knuckleballer takes the mound tonight against the White Sox. In four starts this season, Wright has a 4.07 SIERA with a strikeout rate of 22.5%. He is producing a very nice swinging strike rate of 11.8% and he has thrown at least 116 pitches in three of his four starts. We always like pitchers that can go deep into games. His price is a little too expensive on FanDuel, but he is certainly worth a look in GPPs on DraftKings. The White Sox are ranked 27th in team ISO against right-handed pitching over the last two seasons.

Statistics	Starts	SIERA	K%	BB%	GB%	HH%	O-K%
Jose Quintana
				FanDuel		DraftKings
				Salary:	$8,600	Salary:	$8,100
				FPPG:	41.8	FPPG:	22.9
				Pitcher Rating:	81.6	Pitcher Rank:	3
2016	5	3.26	26.5%	6.6%	38.3%	34.6%	25
2015	32	3.62	20.5%	5.1%	47.1%	27.7%	8

Quintana grades out as a top five pitching option tonight. While I am a big Quintana fan, that says more about the lack of pitching options in this slate more than anything else. I’m always hesitant to use pitchers against the Red Sox, as they have one of the best offenses in the American League. Quintana comes into this game in good form though, posting a 3.26 SIERA with a strikeout rate of 26.5% in his first five starts of the season. The price point is tempting, but it feels like a good night to pay up for pitching with Jake Arrieta or Matt Harvey.

Batter Grind Down

Boston

Red Sox Offense
Team wOBA vs. LHP — 0.327 (7 of 30)
Team ISO vs. LHP — 0.148 (14 of 30)
Runs Per Game — 5.36 (4 of 30)
Projected Run Total — 3.77 (23 of 30)

The Red Sox are ranked seventh in team wOBA against left-handed pitching over the last two seasons, but they come into tonight’s game with the eighth lowest team total on the board. They draw a difficult matchup against Jose Quintana, who has held both both left and right-handed hitters under a .320 wOBA. The Red Sox are secondary plays at best tonight.

Projected Lineup

#	Player	Bats	wOBA vs. LHP	ISO vs. LHP	wOBA L14	FD Position	FD Salary	DK Position	DK Salary
1	Mookie Betts	RIGHT	0.356	0.186	0.347	OF	$4,200	OF	$4,500
2	Dustin Pedroia	RIGHT	0.341	0.182	0.411	2B	$3,700	2B	$4,000
3	Xander Bogaerts	RIGHT	0.383	0.104	0.410	SS	$4,200	SS	$3,900
4	David Ortiz	LEFT	0.303	0.188	0.405	1B	$4,000	1B	$3,600
5	Hanley Ramirez	RIGHT	0.284	0.190	0.277	1B	$3,300	1B	$3,600
6	Travis Shaw	LEFT	0.366	0.253	0.388	3B	$3,400	3B	$3,500
7	Chris Young	RIGHT	0.411	0.252	0.356	OF	$2,000	OF	$2,800
8	Ryan Hanigan	RIGHT	0.372	0.083	0.265	C	$2,200	C	$2,600
9	Jackie Bradley	LEFT	0.382	0.214	0.402	OF	$3,200	OF	$2,900
	Team Averages	—	0.355	0.184	0.362	—	—	—	—

Elite Plays – NONE

Secondary Plays – Mookie Betts, Dustin Pedroia

Stackability – NONE

Chicago White Sox

White Sox Offense
Team wOBA vs. RHP — 0.305 (21 of 30)
Team ISO vs. RHP — 0.137 (27 of 30)
Runs Per Game — 3.92 (19 of 30)
Projected Run Total — 4.23 (8 of 30)

The White Sox may not hit right-handed pitching well as a team, but they have the eighth highest team total on the board tonight. They are facing a knuckleball pitcher in Steven Wright, who has actually pitched pretty well this season. I’m not as high on this matchup as Vegas is, but you can certainly look to a few of the White Sox hitters in tournaments.

Projected Lineup

#	Player	Bats	wOBA vs. RHP	ISO vs. RHP	wOBA L14	FD Position	FD Salary	DK Position	DK Salary
1	Adam Eaton	LEFT	0.358	0.163	0.295	OF	$3,400	OF	$4,200
2	Jimmy Rollins	SWITCH	0.262	0.125	0.320	SS	$2,800	SS	$3,400
3	Jose Abreu	RIGHT	0.371	0.222	0.285	1B	$3,600	1B	$4,100
4	Todd Frazier	RIGHT	0.333	0.218	0.404	3B	$4,100	3B	$4,100
5	Melky Cabrera	SWITCH	0.327	0.127	0.362	OF	$3,200	OF	$3,200
6	Brett Lawrie	RIGHT	0.300	0.146	0.418	2B	$3,300	2B	$3,700
7	Jerry Sands	RIGHT	0.263	0.118	0.393	OF	$2,300	1B/OF	$2,900
8	Dioner Navarro	SWITCH	0.273	0.109	0.337	C	$2,700	C	$2,700
9	Austin Jackson	RIGHT	0.289	0.103	0.315	OF	$2,600	OF	$3,100
	Team Averages	—	0.308	0.148	0.348	—	—	—	—

Elite Plays – NONE

Secondary Plays – Adam Eaton, Jose Abreu, Todd Frazier

Stackability – NONE

LA Angels at Milwaukee – 8:10 PM

Stats	wOBA	HR All.	K%	BB%	Stats	wOBA	HR All.	K%	BB%
LA Angels					Milwaukee
			Nick Tropeano					Junior Guerra
			RIGHT					RIGHT
			Vegas Moneyline					Vegas Over/Under
			LAA -117					9.0
SP vs. Left	0.343	2	25.2%	10.8%	SP vs. Left	0.440	0	25.0%	0.0%
SP vs. Right	0.278	1	19.8%	4.3%	SP vs. Right	0.430	1	14.3%	7.1%

Pitcher Grind Down

Statistics	Starts	SIERA	K%	BB%	GB%	HH%	O-K%
Nick Tropeano
				FanDuel		DraftKings
				Salary:	$6,400	Salary:	$5,600
				FPPG:	30.3	FPPG:	15.6
				Pitcher Rating:	60.3	Pitcher Rank:	17
2016	4	4.64	21.3%	10.6%	25.8%	35.9%	27
2015	7	3.58	23.6%	6.2%	38.5%	24.8%	23

Tropeano has shown some nice strikeout potential, posting a strikeout rate over 22% in his last 11 major league starts. He does have some command issues though, and he is an extreme fly-ball pitcher. I always hesitate to use extreme fly-ball pitchers in hitter-friendly ballparks like Miller Park. Tropeano may be a small favorite tonight, but the total for the game is set at 9.0 runs. At his price, he could be worth a look as a deep GPP play, but I will likely be avoiding him in all league formats.

Statistics	Starts	SIERA	K%	BB%	GB%	HH%	O-K%
Junior Guerra
				FanDuel		DraftKings
				Salary:	$5,400	Salary:	$4,400
				FPPG:	4.0	FPPG:	0.0
				Pitcher Rating:	63.4	Pitcher Rank:	14
2016							2
2015	0	3.28	16.7%	5.6%	57.1%	21.4%	10

Guerra will be called up to make his first major league start. He did make three appearances out of the bullpen last season, but this will be his first actual start. In four Triple-A starts this season, he has a 4.63 ERA with a strikeout rate of 24.5%. He is awfully cheap across the industry, but we don’t know what to expect from the young right-hander. I am going to take a wait and see approach before targeting him in any format.

Batter Grind Down

LA Angels

Angels Offense
Team wOBA vs. RHP — 0.309 (21 of 30)
Team ISO vs. RHP — 0.155 (13 of 30)
Runs Per Game — 3.56 (23 of 30)
Projected Run Total — 4.60 (3 of 30)

The Angels are small favorites in a game that is expected to be high scoring. They have the third highest team total on the board tonight, as they square off against the inexperienced Junior Guerra. Hitters from both sides of the plate are in play here and don’t be afraid to stack the Angels in tournaments.

Projected Lineup

#	Player	Bats	wOBA vs. RHP	ISO vs. RHP	wOBA L14	FD Position	FD Salary	DK Position	DK Salary
1	Yunel Escobar	RIGHT	0.339	0.103	0.307	3B	$3,100	3B	$4,200
2	Rafael Ortega	LEFT	0.273	0.000	0.310	OF	$2,100	OF	$3,700
3	Mike Trout	RIGHT	0.406	0.291	0.448	OF	$4,800	OF	$5,400
4	Albert Pujols	RIGHT	0.332	0.228	0.283	1B	$3,300	1B	$4,900
5	Kole Calhoun	LEFT	0.326	0.172	0.313	OF	$3,200	OF	$4,900
6	Andrelton Simmons	RIGHT	0.297	0.081	0.273	SS	$2,300	SS	$3,600
7	Geovany Soto	RIGHT	0.306	0.174	0.471	C	$2,600	C	$3,200
8	Nick Tropeano	RIGHT				P	$6,400	P	$5,600
9	Johnny Giavotella	LEFT	0.296	0.108	0.287	2B	$2,100	2B	$3,600
	Team Averages	—	0.322	0.145	0.337	—	—	—	—

Elite Plays – Mike Trout, Kole Calhoun

Secondary Plays – Yunel Escobar, Rafael Ortega, Albert Pujols

Stackability – GPP

Milwaukee

Brewers Offense
Team wOBA vs. RHP — 0.307 (19 of 30)
Team ISO vs. RHP — 0.140 (23 of 30)
Runs Per Game — 4.29 (12 of 30)
Projected Run Total — 4.40 (5 of 30)

The Brewers may be small underdogs tonight, but they still have the fifth highest team total on the board. They draw a favorable matchup against Nick Tropeano, who is an extreme fly-ball pitcher. The left-handed hitters have the edge in this matchup, as Tropeano has allowed a .343 wOBA to hitters from that side of the plate. Ryan Braun has been red-hot at the plate, posting a .495 wOBA over the last two weeks.

Projected Lineup

#	Player	Bats	wOBA vs. RHP	ISO vs. RHP	wOBA L14	FD Position	FD Salary	DK Position	DK Salary
1	Domingo Santana	RIGHT	0.300	0.160	0.343	OF	$2,900	OF	$3,600
2	Jonathan Villar	SWITCH	0.328	0.087	0.307	SS	$3,000	SS	$4,000
3	Ryan Braun	RIGHT	0.365	0.209	0.495	OF	$4,400	OF	$4,800
4	Jonathan Lucroy	RIGHT	0.334	0.135	0.379	C	$3,000	C	$3,900
5	Chris Carter	RIGHT	0.334	0.272	0.430	1B	$3,300	1B	$4,200
6	Kirk Nieuwenhuis	LEFT	0.299	0.179	0.318	OF	$2,400	OF	$3,700
7	Aaron Hill	RIGHT	0.276	0.124	0.250	3B	$2,300	3B	$3,100
8	Yadiel Rivera	RIGHT	0.172	0.067	0.097	SS	$2,000	2B/SS	$2,500
9	Junior Guerra	RIGHT				P	$5,400	P	$4,400
	Team Averages	—	0.301	0.154	0.327	—	—	—	—

MLB Grind Down: Tuesday, May 3rd - Page Two

Atlanta at NY Mets – 7:10 PM

Pitcher Grind Down

Atlanta

Projected Lineup

Elite Plays – NONE

Secondary Plays – Freddie Freeman (GPP)

Stackability – NONE

NY Mets

Projected Lineup

Elite Plays – Curtis Granderson, Michael Conforto, Lucas Duda

Secondary Plays – David Wright, Yoenis Cespedes, Neil Walker, Asdrubal Cabrera

Stackability – Cash & GPP

LA Dodgers at Tampa Bay – 7:10 PM

Pitcher Grind Down

Batter Grind Down

LA Dodgers

Projected Lineup

Elite Plays – NONE

Secondary Plays – Kike Hernandez (GPP), Yasiel Puig (GPP)

Stackability – NONE

Tampa Bay

Projected Lineup

Elite Plays – NONE

Secondary Plays – Logan Forsythe, Brandon Guyer, Evan Longoria

Stackability – NONE

San Francisco at Cincinnati – 7:10 PM

Pitcher Grind Down

Batter Grind Down

San Francisco

Projected Lineup

Elite Plays – Denard Span, Buster Posey, Brandon Belt

Secondary Plays – Matt Duffy, Hunter Pence, Brandon Crawford

Stackability – Cash & GPP

Cincinnati

Projected Lineup

Elite Plays – NONE

Secondary Plays – Joey Votto, Jay Bruce

Stackability – NONE

Boston at Chicago White Sox – 8:10 PM

Pitcher Grind Down

Batter Grind Down

Boston

Projected Lineup

Elite Plays – NONE

Secondary Plays – Mookie Betts, Dustin Pedroia

Stackability – NONE

Chicago White Sox

Projected Lineup

Elite Plays – NONE

Secondary Plays – Adam Eaton, Jose Abreu, Todd Frazier

Stackability – NONE

LA Angels at Milwaukee – 8:10 PM

Pitcher Grind Down

Batter Grind Down

LA Angels

Projected Lineup

Elite Plays – Mike Trout, Kole Calhoun

Secondary Plays – Yunel Escobar, Rafael Ortega, Albert Pujols

Stackability – GPP

Milwaukee

Projected Lineup

Elite Plays – Jonathan Villar, Ryan Braun

Secondary Plays – Jonathan Lucroy, Chris Carter

Stackability – GPP

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