MLB Grind Down: Wednesday, April 18th

by Derek Farnsworth (Notorious) Last Updated 2018-04-19 03:49:28

Jump to Page 1 2 3

The RotoGrinders MLB Grind Down will give you an in-depth analysis into the upcoming MLB schedule. This article will break down the numbers for every single game and give you analysis on which trends you can exploit. While matchups are a major factor in daily fantasy baseball, there are plenty of other factors to consider such as injuries, weather, and salaries.

The analysis should point you in the right direction, but it is still up to you to decipher the information and make your own selections. No sport has more variance than baseball. The best choice is not always the right choice but following the trends will win you money over time.

Note: As always, if you want to try a new DFS site, be sure to click through a RotoGrinders link and use our DraftKings promo code, FanDuel promo code, and FantasyDraft promo code to receive the best perks in the industry.

Stackability Rating System:

GREEN – A viable full stack in cash games and GPPs.
YELLOW – A viable mini-stack in cash games and full stack in GPPs.
ORANGE – A viable stack in large field GPPs.
RED – Not a recommended stack for cash games or GPPs.

Implied Run Totals

Ballpark Ratings

Colorado at Pittsburgh – 12:35 PM ET

Stats	wOBA	xwOBA	HC%	BB%	K%	GB%	Stats	wOBA	xwOBA	HC%	BB%	K%	GB%
Colorado								Pittsburgh
			Kyle Freeland							Chad Kuhl
			LEFT							RIGHT
			Vegas Moneyline							Vegas Over/Under
			PIT-118							8.0
SP vs. Left (2016-17)	0.331	0.294	33.0%	6.9%	27.8%	34.6%	SP vs. Left (2016-17)	0.381	0.351	38.7%	11.8%	22.0%	35.9%
SP vs. Right (2016-17)	0.346	0.329	31.2%	9.9%	12.7%	58.3%	SP vs. Right (2016-17)	0.309	0.326	32.5%	8.5%	19.3%	46.5%

Pitcher Grind Down

	Stats	Starts	SIERA	ERA	K%	BB%	GB%	HC%	SC%
Kyle Freeland
	FanDuel			DraftKings			FantasyDraft
	Salary:		$6,000	Salary:			Salary:
	Salary Rank:		25 of 28	Salary Rank:			Salary Rank:
	2017	28	4.93	4.10	15.6%	9.2%	53.9%	32.0%	24.3%
	2018	3	4.16	4.50	21.7%	10.1%	50.0%	27.7%	23.4%

Happy Wednesday everyone. We have seven early games on the schedule today. This game is featured in the early-only slate on FanDuel, but not on DraftKings or FantasyDraft. Freeland is a left-handed pitcher that relies on a high ground ball rate to limit the damage against him. He doesn’t have the best command or the best stuff, which makes him an easy fade in daily fantasy baseball. Even though the Pirates lack power, they don’t offer the strikeout upside needed for Freeland to become a viable play in any format.

Quick Breakdown: Easy avoid.

	Stats	Starts	SIERA	ERA	K%	BB%	GB%	HC%	SC%
Chad Kuhl
	FanDuel			DraftKings			FantasyDraft
	Salary:		$7,100	Salary:			Salary:
	Salary Rank:		19 of 28	Salary Rank:		of 28	Salary Rank:
	2017	31	4.79	4.35	20.9%	10.6%	41.9%	36.1%	17.2%
	2018	3	3.99	5.74	17.8%	5.5%	39.6%	29.1%	21.8%

Kuhl doesn’t have many green or blue boxes in his pitching table above. He has an average strikeout rate and a high walk rate. Throughout his career, he has struggled with left-handed hitters, but he does do a decent job against righties. Unfortunately, he’ll likely face at least four lefties in the Rockies’ lineup today. While this is a pitcher’s park, neither starter is appealing in the early-only slate on FanDuel.

Quick Breakdown: Easy avoid.

Batter Grind Down

Colorado

The Rockies have played well so far in this series. I’ve mentioned their offensive struggles on the road and they come out and score runs in Pittsburgh. As mentioned above, Chad Kuhl is significantly worse against left-handed hitters, allowing a .351 xwOBA and a 39% hard contact rate over the last two seasons. Charlie Blackmon is an excellent one-off target, as he boasts a .381 xwOBA against right-handed pitching.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

#	Player	Bats	wOBA	xwOBA	ISO	HC%	BB%	K%	GB%	FD Pos.	FD Sal.	FDRFT Pos.	FDRFT Sal.
1	DJ LeMahieu	RIGHT	0.320	0.328	0.075	28.5%	8.4%	14.5%	55.8%	2B	$4,100	N/A	N/A
2	Gerardo Parra	LEFT	0.324	0.319	0.152	36.6%	5.4%	14.5%	47.8%	OF	$2,400	N/A	N/A
3	Charlie Blackmon	LEFT	0.422	0.381	0.301	41.3%	10.2%	19.8%	35.0%	OF	$5,000	N/A	N/A
4	Carlos Gonzalez	LEFT	0.359	0.332	0.199	31.2%	12.0%	20.1%	44.0%	OF	$3,100	N/A	N/A
5	Ian Desmond	RIGHT	0.292	0.249	0.100	27.8%	5.9%	24.7%	62.6%	1B	$3,000	N/A	N/A
6	Trevor Story	RIGHT	0.283	0.278	0.171	36.6%	7.7%	34.2%	34.5%	SS	$3,300	N/A	N/A
7	Ryan McMahon	LEFT	0.211	0.236	0.029	17.4%	12.8%	28.2%	78.3%	3B	$2,000	N/A	N/A
8	Chris Iannetta	RIGHT	0.348	0.336	0.237	38.5%	10.5%	29.6%	33.6%	C	$2,600	N/A	N/A
9	Kyle Freeland	LEFT	0.242	0.158	0.108	23.8%	2.5%	45.0%	72.2%	P	$6,000	N/A	N/A

Elite Plays – Charlie Blackmon

Secondary Plays – Gerardo Parra, Carlos Gonzalez

Stackability – ORANGE

Pittsburgh

The Pirates draw a mediocre matchup against Kyle Freeland. While nothing stands out when you look at his numbers, he keeps the ball on the ground and is good at limiting hard contact. While this isn’t a great spot overall, Freeland has allowed a .329 xwOBA to righties since the beginning of last season. Josh Bell and David Freese should be hitting in the middle of the order and both own a .360+ xwOBA against southpaws.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. LH Pitching)

#	Player	Bats	wOBA	xwOBA	ISO	HC%	BB%	K%	GB%	FD Pos.	FD Sal.	FDRFT Pos.	FDRFT Sal.
1	Jordy Mercer	RIGHT	0.291	0.311	0.145	38.5%	8.9%	15.8%	48.1%	SS	$2,500	N/A	N/A
2	Gregory Polanco	LEFT	0.271	0.252	0.108	18.7%	6.4%	24.5%	46.7%	OF	$4,400	N/A	N/A
3	Starling Marte	RIGHT	0.217	0.275	0.069	28.4%	6.4%	21.3%	53.8%	OF	$4,300	N/A	N/A
4	Josh Bell	SWITCH	0.322	0.364	0.193	31.6%	9.5%	15.8%	49.6%	1B	$3,500	N/A	N/A
5	David Freese	RIGHT	0.356	0.362	0.106	32.2%	15.4%	19.9%	58.6%	3B	$2,300	N/A	N/A
6	Corey Dickerson	LEFT	0.354	0.283	0.170	29.5%	4.0%	25.1%	47.5%	OF	$4,000	N/A	N/A
7	Elias Diaz	RIGHT	0.331	0.327	0.160	31.0%	2.0%	15.7%	52.4%	C	$2,300	N/A	N/A
8	Sean Rodriguez	RIGHT	0.347	0.326	0.228	48.4%	14.7%	38.2%	23.3%	2B	$2,400	N/A	N/A
9	Chad Kuhl	RIGHT	0.146	0.202	0.000	11.1%	0.0%	35.7%	66.7%	P	$7,100	N/A	N/A

Elite Plays – None

Secondary Plays – Josh Bell, David Freese

Stackability – ORANGE

Baltimore at Detroit – 1:10 PM ET

Stats	wOBA	xwOBA	HC%	BB%	K%	GB%	Stats	wOBA	xwOBA	HC%	BB%	K%	GB%
Baltimore								Detroit
			Kevin Gausman							Matt Boyd
			RIGHT							LEFT
			Vegas Moneyline							Vegas Over/Under
			BAL-105							9.0
SP vs. Left (2016-17)	0.358	0.344	30.3%	11.9%	20.7%	39.8%	SP vs. Left (2016-17)	0.280	0.298	25.3%	8.0%	17.0%	44.6%
SP vs. Right (2016-17)	0.344	0.346	34.4%	6.3%	22.8%	44.2%	SP vs. Right (2016-17)	0.351	0.337	36.6%	8.3%	17.8%	35.7%

Pitcher Grind Down

	Stats	Starts	SIERA	ERA	K%	BB%	GB%	HC%	SC%
Kevin Gausman
	FanDuel			DraftKings			FantasyDraft
	Salary:		$7,300	Salary:		$6,400	Salary:		$12,900
	Salary Rank:		17 of 28	Salary Rank:		17 of 28	Salary Rank:		16 of 28
	2017	34	4.41	4.68	21.9%	8.7%	42.7%	32.3%	18.2%
	2018	3	4.05	6.60	21.4%	8.6%	38.3%	37.5%	18.8%

Gausman pitched well in his last start, striking out seven batters against the Blue Jays. He still gave up three runs, but managed to pick up the win and a quality start. He draws a boom or bust matchup against the Tigers. While we generally like to target righties against Detroit, Gausman is a reverse-splits pitcher. Since the beginning of last season, he has allowed a .346 xwOBA and a 34% hard contact rate to righties. There is strikeout potential here, but plenty of risk as well.

Quick Breakdown: Viable in tournaments, but not a core play.

	Stats	Starts	SIERA	ERA	K%	BB%	GB%	HC%	SC%
Matt Boyd
	FanDuel			DraftKings			FantasyDraft
	Salary:		$6,000	Salary:		$6,000	Salary:		$11,900
	Salary Rank:		25 of 28	Salary Rank:		21 of 28	Salary Rank:		22 of 28
	2017	25	4.94	5.27	18.2%	8.8%	38.1%	34.6%	21.0%
	2018	2	5.68	1.38	10.6%	2.1%	27.5%	35.0%	30.0%

Boyd may own an ERA under 2.00 this season, but don’t be fooled. We are dealing with a small sample and he doesn’t have the peripheral numbers to back it up. He’s a subpar left-handed pitcher that gives up a lot of fly balls and a lot of hard contact. The Orioles strikeout at a high rate against southpaws, but have plenty of firepower in their lineup. With this game set as a pick ‘em with a total of nine runs, both pitchers are pretty easy fades.

Quick Breakdown: Easy avoid.

Batter Grind Down

Baltimore

The Orioles are an intriguing stack in the early slate. Matt Boyd has a below-average strikeout rate, a high walk rate, and he’s a fly-ball pitcher that gives up a lot of hard contact. That all sounds great to me. As does the fact that he has allowed a .337 xwOBA and a 37% hard contact rate to right-handed hitters over the last two seasons. The O’s stack is viable in tournaments, while we can look to Manny Machado and Danny Valencia in cash games.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. LH Pitching)

#	Player	Bats	wOBA	xwOBA	ISO	HC%	BB%	K%	GB%	FD Pos.	FD Sal.	DK Pos.	DK Sal.	FDRFT Pos.	FDRFT Sal.
1	Trey Mancini	RIGHT	0.316	0.317	0.116	32.8%	4.9%	24.6%	53.9%	OF	$3,100	1B/OF	$3,700	IF/OF	$7,200
2	Craig Gentry	RIGHT	0.310	0.309	0.164	30.6%	6.8%	26.0%	50.0%	OF	$2,300	OF	$2,200	LF	$4,000
3	Manny Machado	RIGHT	0.359	0.396	0.276	44.4%	6.5%	15.2%	37.3%	SS	$4,500	SS	$5,000	3B	$10,000
4	Adam Jones	RIGHT	0.322	0.328	0.144	31.3%	6.8%	17.6%	43.1%	OF	$3,000	OF	$4,100	CF	$8,500
5	Danny Valencia	RIGHT	0.344	0.365	0.194	39.5%	13.9%	20.5%	45.9%	3B	$2,200	3B	$2,800	1B	$5,400
6	Chris Davis	LEFT	0.277	0.316	0.131	33.3%	9.7%	40.6%	34.5%	1B	$2,300	1B	$3,100	IF/OF	$5,500
7	Tim Beckham	RIGHT	0.339	0.336	0.185	38.8%	8.4%	28.7%	49.0%	2B	$2,600	3B	$3,100	SS	$5,600
8	Anthony Santander	SWITCH	0.210	0.170	0.053	22.2%	9.5%	47.6%	44.4%	OF	$2,000	OF	$2,900	LF	$5,700
9	Caleb Joseph	RIGHT	0.329	0.375	0.216	39.6%	5.1%	26.6%	37.7%	C	$2,000	C	$2,600	C	$4,700

Elite Plays – Manny Machado, Danny Valencia

Secondary Plays – Trey Mancini, Craig Gentry, Adam Jones, Tim Beckham

Stackability – YELLOW / GREEN

Detroit

Kevin Gausman brings strikeout upside to the table, but he’s also capable of getting shelled. Throughout his career, he has given up some huge outings to his opponents. The Tigers aren’t an offense to target in a cash game setting, but they certainly have appeal in tournaments, whether you want to stack them or target them individually. Miguel Cabrera, Nick Castellanos, and Victor Martinez all own a .375+ xwOBA against right-handed pitching.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

#	Player	Bats	wOBA	xwOBA	ISO	HC%	BB%	K%	GB%	FD Pos.	FD Sal.	DK Pos.	DK Sal.	FDRFT Pos.	FDRFT Sal.
1	Leonys Martin	LEFT	0.254	0.290	0.096	25.0%	7.5%	23.9%	35.9%	OF	$2,800	OF	$3,300	CF	$6,500
2	Jeimer Candelario	SWITCH	0.327	0.312	0.156	25.7%	10.2%	20.5%	46.0%	3B	$2,600	3B	$3,400	3B	$6,600
3	Miguel Cabrera	RIGHT	0.292	0.375	0.143	42.0%	8.9%	20.0%	42.6%	1B	$3,200	1B	$4,100	1B	$8,300
4	Nick Castellanos	RIGHT	0.328	0.375	0.186	43.8%	6.3%	22.8%	35.8%	OF	$3,200	OF	$4,500	IF/OF	$9,400
5	Victor Martinez	SWITCH	0.313	0.376	0.130	43.6%	8.9%	14.2%	38.0%	C	$2,300	1B	$3,400	1B	$6,800
6	John Hicks	RIGHT	0.328	0.325	0.149	33.7%	6.7%	24.6%	49.4%	C	$2,000	1B/C	$2,700	C	$5,900
7	JaCoby Jones	RIGHT	0.215	0.245	0.060	31.3%	7.0%	38.3%	53.0%	OF	$2,000	OF	$2,900	IF/OF	$5,900
8	Jose Iglesias	RIGHT	0.274	0.258	0.114	27.2%	4.2%	15.0%	52.7%	SS	$2,000	SS	$2,800	SS	$5,500
9	Dixon Machado	RIGHT	0.301	0.294	0.100	34.9%	4.7%	18.3%	53.9%	2B	$2,300	2B	$3,200	SS	$6,500

Elite Plays – Nick Castellanos (GPP)

Secondary Plays – Nick Castellanos (Cash), Miguel Cabrera, Victor Martinez, John Hicks

Stackability – YELLOW

Texas at Tampa Bay – 1:10 PM ET

Stats	wOBA	xwOBA	HC%	BB%	K%	GB%	Stats	wOBA	xwOBA	HC%	BB%	K%	GB%
Texas								Tampa Bay
			Cole Hamels							Jake Faria
			LEFT							RIGHT
			Vegas Moneyline							Vegas Over/Under
			TB -113							7.5
SP vs. Left (2016-17)	0.225	0.296	27.9%	4.4%	17.5%	59.6%	SP vs. Left (2016-17)	0.279	0.341	27.2%	19.5%	18.8%	46.7%
SP vs. Right (2016-17)	0.334	0.347	38.4%	10.1%	19.3%	44.1%	SP vs. Right (2016-17)	0.317	0.323	35.6%	4.6%	24.7%	31.5%

Pitcher Grind Down

	Stats	Starts	SIERA	ERA	K%	BB%	GB%	HC%	SC%
Cole Hamels
	FanDuel			DraftKings			FantasyDraft
	Salary:		$7,900	Salary:		$10,300	Salary:		$19,500
	Salary Rank:		12 of 28	Salary Rank:		4 of 28	Salary Rank:		5 of 28
	2017	24	4.90	4.20	17.1%	8.6%	47.5%	35.7%	13.7%
	2018	4	3.34	4.50	30.6%	11.2%	45.6%	38.6%	21.1%

Hamels has proved me wrong in his first four starts of the season. After disappointing seasons in 2016 and 2017, I was not expecting much from Hamels. Now, it’s only been four starts and I still think he’s on the wrong side of father time. His velocity is down quite a bit this season and he may not be able to sustain a 14% swinging strike rate. The good news is that he draws his best matchup to date. The Rays projected lineup has a .287 xwOBA and a 21% strikeout rate against left-handed pitching.

Quick Breakdown: Even in this matchup, I have a hard time playing Hamels in anything other than a tournament.

	Stats	Starts	SIERA	ERA	K%	BB%	GB%	HC%	SC%
Jake Faria
	FanDuel			DraftKings			FantasyDraft
	Salary:		$5,500	Salary:		$6,200	Salary:		$12,100
	Salary Rank:		28 of 28	Salary Rank:		20 of 28	Salary Rank:		20 of 28
	2017	14	4.26	3.43	23.5%	8.7%	38.3%	31.2%	19.8%
	2018	3	6.27	8.18	16.4%	18.2%	25.7%	42.9%	17.1%

Faria is listed as a small favorite against the Rangers, which basically tells you how the betting markets feel about Hamels. It’s not meant to be a knock on Faria, but he has not fared well in his first three starts of the season. He owns a 6.27 SIERA with a strikeout rate of only 16%. After a solid rookie season in 2017, I expect Faria to right the ship eventually, but I won’t be hopping aboard until the waves calm down.

Quick Breakdown: Avoid in all formats.

Batter Grind Down

Texas

The Rangers made quick work of Yonny Chirinos last night. It was a great example of why we should never trust small sample sizes. It’s not that Chirinos won’t pitch well moving forward, but perhaps we gave him a little too much credit after only three major league appearances. The Rangers draw a decent matchup today, as they square off against the struggling Jake Faria. In terms of splits, Faria has allowed a .341 xwOBA to lefties and a .323 xwOBA to righties.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

#	Player	Bats	wOBA	xwOBA	ISO	HC%	BB%	K%	GB%	FD Pos.	FD Sal.	DK Pos.	DK Sal.	FDRFT Pos.	FDRFT Sal.
1	Shin-soo Choo	LEFT	0.335	0.378	0.193	40.4%	11.5%	22.2%	46.6%	OF	$2,700	OF	$3,300	RF	$6,700
2	Jurickson Profar	SWITCH	0.276	0.307	0.038	25.8%	14.7%	18.9%	36.7%	SS	$2,200	2B/SS	$2,900	3B	$5,900
3	Nomar Mazara	LEFT	0.327	0.334	0.179	35.2%	9.5%	20.2%	42.8%	OF	$2,700	OF	$3,400	RF	$6,700
4	Adrian Beltre	RIGHT	0.363	0.356	0.201	34.4%	9.0%	14.6%	44.1%	3B	$3,100	3B	$3,300	3B	$6,800
5	Joey Gallo	LEFT	0.362	0.377	0.344	45.9%	13.2%	34.9%	29.2%	1B	$3,400	1B	$4,000	1B	$7,600
6	Ronald Guzman	LEFT	0.508	0.314	0.375	40.0%	11.1%	33.3%	20.0%	1B	$2,400	1B	$2,900	1B	$5,800
7	Robinson Chirinos	RIGHT	0.327	0.323	0.225	35.1%	9.5%	29.0%	41.8%	C	$2,500	C	$3,100	C	$5,600
8	Isiah Kiner-Falefa	RIGHT	0.332	0.156	0.333	20.0%	0.0%	44.4%	40.0%	2B	$2,000	2B/3B	$2,500	3B	$4,900
9	Carlos Tocci	RIGHT	0.000	0.032	0.000	0.0%	0.0%	66.7%	100.0%	OF	$2,000	OF	$2,200	CF	$4,000

Elite Plays – Shin-Soo Choo, Joey Gallo

Secondary Plays – Nomar Mazara, Adrian Beltre

Stackability – YELLOW

Tampa Bay

The Rays were great against Martin Perez, they struggled against Matt Moore, and now they face another lefty in Cole Hamels. While he has pitched well so far this season, he has still allowed a .347 xwOBA and a 38% hard contact rate to right-handed hitters. The same two batters are on my radar again today — C.J. Cron and Wilson Ramos. They are the only batters in this lineup with an xwOBA over .310 against southpaws.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. LH Pitching)

#	Player	Bats	wOBA	xwOBA	ISO	HC%	BB%	K%	GB%	FD Pos.	FD Sal.	DK Pos.	DK Sal.	FDRFT Pos.	FDRFT Sal.
1	Daniel Robertson	RIGHT	0.317	0.292	0.102	16.3%	7.4%	1.9%	68.1%	3B	$2,700	OF	$2,700	LF	$5,900
2	Adeiny Hechavarria	RIGHT	0.300	0.287	0.168	32.1%	4.9%	18.6%	44.0%	SS	$2,300	SS	$2,800	SS	$5,800
3	Carlos Gomez	RIGHT	0.295	0.268	0.163	31.3%	4.2%	33.6%	34.8%	OF	$2,900	OF	$3,800	CF	$7,600
4	C.J. Cron	RIGHT	0.326	0.343	0.255	41.2%	5.5%	31.2%	30.9%	1B	$3,300	1B	$3,400	1B	$6,900
5	Wilson Ramos	RIGHT	0.290	0.324	0.127	35.5%	5.1%	14.1%	54.8%	C	$2,400	C	$2,800	C	$5,600
6	Brandon Snyder	RIGHT								3B	$2,000			N/A	N/A
7	Rob Refsnyder	RIGHT	0.215	0.309	0.000	7.7%	24.5%	18.4%	46.2%	OF	$2,100	OF	$2,100	IF/OF	$4,200
8	Johnny Field	RIGHT								OF	$2,200	OF	$2,600	CF	$4,500
9	Mallex Smith	LEFT	0.313	0.183	0.068	25.8%	2.1%	31.9%	47.8%	OF	$3,200	OF	$3,000	CF	$5,700

Elite Plays – C.J. Cron, Wilson Ramos (DK)

Secondary Plays – Wilson Ramos (FD)

Stackability – ORANGE / YELLOW

Cincinnati at Milwaukee – 1:40 PM ET

Stats	wOBA	xwOBA	HC%	BB%	K%	GB%	Stats	wOBA	xwOBA	HC%	BB%	K%	GB%
Cincinnati								Milwaukee
			Tyler Mahle							Zach Davies
			RIGHT							RIGHT
			Vegas Moneyline							Vegas Over/Under
			MIL-150							8.5
SP vs. Left (2016-17)	0.413	0.416	41.0%	15.5%	15.5%	39.5%	SP vs. Left (2016-17)	0.333	0.350	31.3%	8.9%	17.8%	44.5%
SP vs. Right (2016-17)	0.308	0.341	25.7%	4.9%	18.6%	47.9%	SP vs. Right (2016-17)	0.327	0.340	29.3%	4.7%	14.3%	53.2%

Pitcher Grind Down

	Stats	Starts	SIERA	ERA	K%	BB%	GB%	HC%	SC%
Tyler Mahle
	FanDuel			DraftKings			FantasyDraft
	Salary:		$6,600	Salary:		$6,300	Salary:		$12,600
	Salary Rank:		21 of 28	Salary Rank:		19 of 28	Salary Rank:		19 of 28
	2017	4	5.53	2.70	15.2%	12.0%	52.5%	23.8%	22.2%
	2018	3	3.72	5.63	20.6%	4.4%	36.0%	40.0%	14.0%

Mahle will take the mound today for the Reds. After three starts this season, he owns a 3.72 SIERA with a strikeout rate of 21%. Those numbers are certainly acceptable, but not when accompanied by a 40% hard contact rate. This is not the best ballpark for fly-ball pitchers and the Brewers aren’t exactly the best matchup. Each of the first five hitters in their projected lineup has an xwOBA over .325 against right-handed pitching.

Quick Breakdown: Easy avoid.

	Stats	Starts	SIERA	ERA	K%	BB%	GB%	HC%	SC%
Zach Davies
	FanDuel			DraftKings			FantasyDraft
	Salary:		$7,700	Salary:		$6,700	Salary:		$12,700
	Salary Rank:		14 of 28	Salary Rank:		16 of 28	Salary Rank:		18 of 28
	2017	33	4.72	3.90	15.2%	6.7%	50.2%	28.8%	19.9%
	2018	3	3.41	6.75	26.1%	7.3%	34.1%	51.1%	13.3%

Davies has shown some strikeout upside (26%) so far this season. In case you were wondering, he has a strikeout rate of 26%, not 26% of strikeout upside. If we pull up his pitching profile, it doesn’t look like there has been a change in velocity or in his pitch selection, so I’ll need to see more from him. He’s actually in a decent spot today against the Reds, who have six projected starters with a strikeout rate of at least 20% against right-handed pitching.

Quick Breakdown: At the very least, Davies deserves consideration in tournaments.

Batter Grind Down

Cincinnati

The Reds continue to struggle offensively, especially on the road. Outside of Joey Votto, this is not an intimidating lineup. Billy Hamilton always offers stolen base upside, but that requires him to actually reach base. Their matchup against Zach Davies isn’t terrible, but not one that really stands out. Since the beginning of last season, he has held both left and right-handed hitters under a 32% hard contact rate.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

#	Player	Bats	wOBA	xwOBA	ISO	HC%	BB%	K%	GB%	FD Pos.	FD Sal.	DK Pos.	DK Sal.	FDRFT Pos.	FDRFT Sal.
1	Billy Hamilton	SWITCH	0.293	0.257	0.086	15.2%	9.3%	20.7%	48.3%	OF	$3,500	OF	$3,200	CF	$6,500
2	Jose Peraza	RIGHT	0.270	0.285	0.071	19.8%	3.1%	14.6%	43.6%	SS	$2,900	SS	$3,100	SS	$5,800
3	Joey Votto	LEFT	0.420	0.433	0.234	36.0%	18.0%	9.8%	37.0%	1B	$3,700	1B	$4,700	1B	$9,200
4	Scooter Gennett	LEFT	0.381	0.347	0.238	36.9%	6.0%	20.4%	39.4%	2B	$3,300	2B	$3,500	2B	$6,500
5	Adam Duvall	RIGHT	0.297	0.285	0.202	30.6%	5.5%	28.0%	32.3%	OF	$3,000	OF	$4,000	IF/OF	$7,600
6	Tucker Barnhart	SWITCH	0.333	0.340	0.148	34.2%	10.3%	15.8%	41.1%	C	$2,600	C	$3,500	C	$6,300
7	Alex Blandino	RIGHT	0.081	0.208	0.000	42.9%	0.0%	36.4%	42.9%	3B	$2,000	3B	$3,000	3B	$5,600
8	Phillip Ervin	RIGHT	0.282	0.278	0.156	19.2%	8.3%	25.0%	32.6%	OF	$2,300	OF	$2,500	CF	$4,700
9	Tyler Mahle	RIGHT	0.208	0.172	0.000	11.1%	0.0%	23.1%	87.5%	P	$6,600	P	$6,300	P	$12,600

Elite Plays – Joey Votto

Secondary Plays – Billy Hamilton, Jesse Winker, Scooter Gennett

Stackability – ORANGE / YELLOW

Milwaukee

The Brewers draw a favorable matchup against Tyler Mahle, who is still unproven at the major league level. The sample size is small (seven starts), but Mahle has allowed a .416 xwOBA to lefties and a .341 xwOBA to righties. The Brewers are playing at home in a good ballpark and have one of the highest implied run totals of the early slate. A stack is certainly viable in tournaments and we can look to Lorenzo Cain and Travis Shaw in cash games.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

#	Player	Bats	wOBA	xwOBA	ISO	HC%	BB%	K%	GB%	FD Pos.	FD Sal.	DK Pos.	DK Sal.	FDRFT Pos.	FDRFT Sal.
1	Lorenzo Cain	RIGHT	0.340	0.333	0.122	29.2%	7.9%	16.5%	46.5%	OF	$3,000	OF	$4,300	CF	$8,400
2	Eric Thames	LEFT	0.390	0.365	0.300	43.4%	14.6%	27.7%	37.0%	1B	$3,400	1B	$4,400	1B	$8,200
3	Ryan Braun	RIGHT	0.330	0.328	0.197	35.0%	7.1%	21.7%	50.6%	OF	$3,000	1B/OF	$4,500	LF	$9,200
4	Travis Shaw	LEFT	0.378	0.364	0.251	39.0%	10.6%	21.6%	41.8%	3B	$3,400	3B	$3,600	3B	$7,500
5	Domingo Santana	RIGHT	0.370	0.349	0.210	37.0%	11.2%	29.8%	46.5%	OF	$2,700	OF	$3,900	RF	$7,700
6	Jonathan Villar	SWITCH	0.301	0.271	0.131	35.3%	5.8%	29.7%	57.5%	2B	$3,000	2B	$3,400	2B	$6,300
7	Orlando Arcia	RIGHT	0.316	0.288	0.150	30.7%	5.8%	18.2%	51.6%	SS	$2,300	SS	$3,000	SS	$5,800
8	Jett Bandy	RIGHT	0.261	0.289	0.127	34.9%	7.4%	28.0%	38.5%	C	$2,000	C	$2,900	C	$5,600
9	Zach Davies	RIGHT	0.171	0.178	0.044	14.0%	7.8%	25.0%	62.1%	P	$7,700	P	$6,700	P	$12,700

MLB Grind Down: Wednesday, April 18th

Jump to Page 1 2 3

Stackability Rating System:

Implied Run Totals

Ballpark Ratings

Colorado at Pittsburgh – 12:35 PM ET

Pitcher Grind Down

Batter Grind Down

Colorado

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

Elite Plays – Charlie Blackmon

Secondary Plays – Gerardo Parra, Carlos Gonzalez

Stackability – ORANGE

Pittsburgh

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. LH Pitching)

Elite Plays – None

Secondary Plays – Josh Bell, David Freese

Stackability – ORANGE

Baltimore at Detroit – 1:10 PM ET

Pitcher Grind Down

Batter Grind Down

Baltimore

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. LH Pitching)

Elite Plays – Manny Machado, Danny Valencia

Secondary Plays – Trey Mancini, Craig Gentry, Adam Jones, Tim Beckham

Stackability – YELLOW / GREEN

Detroit

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

Elite Plays – Nick Castellanos (GPP)

Secondary Plays – Nick Castellanos (Cash), Miguel Cabrera, Victor Martinez, John Hicks

Stackability – YELLOW

Texas at Tampa Bay – 1:10 PM ET

Pitcher Grind Down

Batter Grind Down

Texas

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

Elite Plays – Shin-Soo Choo, Joey Gallo

Secondary Plays – Nomar Mazara, Adrian Beltre

Stackability – YELLOW

Tampa Bay

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. LH Pitching)

Elite Plays – C.J. Cron, Wilson Ramos (DK)

Secondary Plays – Wilson Ramos (FD)

Stackability – ORANGE / YELLOW

Cincinnati at Milwaukee – 1:40 PM ET

Pitcher Grind Down

Batter Grind Down

Cincinnati

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

Elite Plays – Joey Votto

Secondary Plays – Billy Hamilton, Jesse Winker, Scooter Gennett

Stackability – ORANGE / YELLOW

Milwaukee

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

Elite Plays – Travis Shaw, Eric Thames (GPP)

Secondary Plays – Eric Thames (Cash), Domingo Santana

Stackability – YELLOW / GREEN

Jump to Page 1 2 3

About the Author