MLB Grind Down: Wednesday, August 29th

by Taylor Smith (tcsmith031) Last Updated 2018-08-29 17:13:27

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The RotoGrinders MLB Grind Down will give you an in-depth analysis into the upcoming MLB schedule. This article will break down the numbers for every single game and give you analysis on which trends you can exploit. While matchups are a major factor in daily fantasy baseball, there are plenty of other factors to consider such as injuries, weather, and salaries.

The analysis should point you in the right direction, but it is still up to you to decipher the information and make your own selections. No sport has more variance than baseball. The best choice is not always the right choice but following the trends will win you money over time.

Note: As always, if you want to try a new DFS site, be sure to click through a RotoGrinders link and use our DraftKings promo code, FanDuel promo code, and FantasyDraft promo code to receive the best perks in the industry.

Stackability Rating System:

GREEN – A viable full stack in cash games and GPPs.
YELLOW – A viable mini-stack in cash games and full stack in GPPs.
ORANGE – A viable stack in large field GPPs.
RED – Not a recommended stack for cash games or GPPs.

Implied Run Totals

Ballpark Ratings

Oakland at Houston – 2:10 PM ET

Oakland								Houston
			Trevor Cahill							Dallas Keuchel
			RIGHT							LEFT
			Vegas Moneyline							Vegas Over/Under
			HOU-170							8.5
Stats	wOBA	xwOBA	HC%	HR/9	K%	GB%	Stats	wOBA	xwOBA	HC%	HR/9	K%	GB%
SP vs. Left (2016-17)	0.284	0.302	41.9%	0.41	25.6%	50.5%	SP vs. Left (2016-17)	0.296	0.269	25.3%	0.80	23.6%	60.6%
SP vs. Right (2016-17)	0.272	0.329	40.8%	0.76	22.1%	57.0%	SP vs. Right (2016-17)	0.298	0.319	30.3%	0.87	16.2%	51.5%

Pitcher Grind Down

Trevor Cahill
	FanDuel				DraftKings				FantasyDraft
	Salary:			$7,600	Salary:			$8,200	Salary:		$16,000
	Salary Rank:			12 of 28	Salary Rank:			9 of 28	Salary Rank:		7 of 28
	Stats	Starts	SIERA	ERA	K%	BB%	GB%	HC%	SC%	aFV	SwS%
	2017	14	4.43	4.93	22.8%	11.8%	55.6%	28.9%	22.4%	90.9	11.0%
	2018	16	3.64	3.44	23.8%	7.4%	54.0%	41.3%	12.2%	91.7	12.6%
	L14	2	3.96	3.75	19.6%	6.5%	54.5%	35.3%	23.5%	91.9	8.0%

So far this season, Trevor Cahill has either dominated or gotten knocked around a little bit. He comes into today’s start with a respectable 23.8% strikeout rate alongside a 3.64 SIERA. The 54% ground ball rate is also nice to see. Cahill has often struggled with command in his career, and this season he’s giving up hard hits at a clip north of 41%. He held the Astros to just 1 hit in 7 innings in his last start against them 11 days ago, but the Houston lineup has gotten healthier since then. His strikeouts and ground ball skills have me interested in Cahill for GPPs, but the short afternoon slate actually does have a couple of more favorable options for cash games. 

Quick Breakdown: I’d reserve Cahill for tournaments in a tough matchup with the Astros. 

Dallas Keuchel
	FanDuel				DraftKings				FantasyDraft
	Salary:			$9,400	Salary:			$9,000	Salary:		$17,700
	Salary Rank:			2 of 28	Salary Rank:			5 of 28	Salary Rank:		4 of 28
	Stats	Starts	SIERA	ERA	K%	BB%	GB%	HC%	SC%	aFV	SwS%
	2017	23	3.61	2.90	21.4%	8.1%	66.8%	24.7%	25.4%	88.7	10.9%
	2018	27	4.04	3.54	17.7%	6.1%	53.2%	29.4%	23.2%	89.2	8.7%
	L14	2	4.39	4.97	18.5%	5.6%	31.7%	48.8%	17.1%	89.7	9.9%

Keuchel was knocked around in the same game in Oakland Cahill dominated a couple of weeks ago. On the season, though, the former Cy Young winner has pitched pretty well. His low 17.7% K-rate isn’t the most appealing from a fantasy perspective, but Keuchel typically comes with a long leash and his high-ground ball (53.2%) low-hard contact (29.4%) rates keep him from getting blown up very often. The A’s lineup on the other side comes with plenty of thunder, but they have whiffed at a 22.4% rate on the season. The problem here is that Keuchel is fairly expensive and the matchup is lacking. I think he’s fine today, but paying up likely won’t be necessary.

Quick Breakdown: I prefer Keuchel to Cahill, but neither is a must-play.

Batter Grind Down

Oakland

Targeting Dallas Keuchel isn’t often a profitable strategy. That said, the Wednesday afternoon slate is limited so I suppose you can take a shot with some Oakland one-offs. Matt Chapman isn’t that cheap, but he’s a legit superstar that will hold the platoon edge over Keuchel. Marcus Semien also comes with a fair price tag, and he’s viable if he draws a favorable spot in the order. Khris Davis is Khris Davis, so you know what to expect there. He’s either going to strike out 4 times or hit 2 dongs. Ramon Laureano and Chad Pinder make for acceptable punts. The A’s are a team you can always stack in GPPs given the power upside, but I’d prefer to pick my spots here in cash.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. LH Pitching)

Elite Plays – Matt Chapman

Secondary Plays – Khris Davis, Marcus Semien, Ramon Laureano, Chad PInder, Stephen Piscotty

Stackability – ORANGE

Houston

I tend to buy into Trevor Cahill’s talent, but the Astros have a stacked offense and Cahill looks like a guy with fairly neutral splits. Some of Houston’s hitters are also underpriced, so all-in-all this looks like a solid spot for them on a short slate. Play Jose Altuve, George Springer, Alex Bregman and Carlos Correa if you can afford them. If you need some cheaper guys, Marwin Gonzalez, Evan Gattis, Josh Reddick and Martin Maldonado are in play. Paying down for pitching while playing a few Astro hitters looks like a solid play on the early slate. Cahill is good, but it’s hard not to like some Astros hitters on the other side.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

Elite Plays – Alex Bregman, Jose Altuve, George Springer, Carlos Correa

Secondary Plays – Josh Reddick, Marwin Gonzalez, Martin Maldonado, Tyler White

Stackability – YELLOW

Detroit at Kansas City – 2:15 PM ET

Detroit								Kansas City
			Michael Fulmer							Danny Duffy
			RIGHT							LEFT
			Vegas Moneyline							Vegas Over/Under
			KC -110							8.5
Stats	wOBA	xwOBA	HC%	HR/9	K%	GB%	Stats	wOBA	xwOBA	HC%	HR/9	K%	GB%
SP vs. Left (2016-17)	0.324	0.348	37.5%	1.42	18.4%	42.6%	SP vs. Left (2016-17)	0.281	0.343	37.5%	0.62	21.7%	35.3%
SP vs. Right (2016-17)	0.313	0.328	40.7%	0.68	21.6%	49.0%	SP vs. Right (2016-17)	0.346	0.359	38.6%	1.51	20.2%	35.0%

Pitcher Grind Down

Michael Fulmer
	FanDuel				DraftKings				FantasyDraft
	Salary:			$7,200	Salary:			$7,200	Salary:		$14,900
	Salary Rank:			15 of 28	Salary Rank:			16 of 28	Salary Rank:		12 of 28
	Stats	Starts	SIERA	ERA	K%	BB%	GB%	HC%	SC%	aFV	SwS%
	2017	25	4.48	3.83	16.9%	5.9%	49.2%	30.0%	18.1%	95.8	9.4%
	2018	20	4.36	4.32	19.9%	8.0%	45.4%	38.9%	15.0%	95.9	10.6%
	L14	1	3.74	0.00	23.5%	5.9%	41.7%	41.7%	16.7%	96.5	11.7%

Michael “Fulmy” Fulmer came off the DL in his last start and pitched quite well against the White Sox. He only threw 77 pitches in 4.2 innings, but Fulmer held Chicago scoreless on 2 hits while picking up 4 whiffs. On the season, he has a 19.9% K-rate, an 8% walk rate and a 4.36 SIERA. Fulmer has also conceded 14 homers in 20 starts. Fortunately, the home run risk today is mitigated against a weak Royals offense taking their hacks in spacious Kauffman Stadium. Kansas City has a low strikeout rate as a team, but their lineup has gotten weaker since kicking Mike Moustakas out the door and Fulmer comes with a cheap price tag. Even if Fulmer is capped around 90 pitches, I think he’s a fine cheap option in this spot.

Quick Breakdown: Fulmer is a strong value against the Royals.

Danny Duffy
	FanDuel				DraftKings				FantasyDraft
	Salary:			$8,500	Salary:			$7,700	Salary:		$15,400
	Salary Rank:			6 of 28	Salary Rank:			12 of 28	Salary Rank:		10 of 28
	Stats	Starts	SIERA	ERA	K%	BB%	GB%	HC%	SC%	aFV	SwS%
	2017	24	4.31	3.81	21.4%	6.7%	39.5%	29.8%	17.8%	92.8	11.4%
	2018	26	4.71	4.85	20.4%	10.0%	35.0%	38.4%	16.5%	93.2	9.7%
	L14	1	3.53	3.60	29.2%	8.3%	21.4%	21.4%	14.3%	92.3	5.2%

Danny Duffy hasn’t gotten great results this season, but his track record tells us he’s a better pitcher than the one we’ve been seeing. The lefty has a 20.4% strikeout rate on the year, but his walk rate (10%), hard-hit rate (38.4%) and SIERA (4.71) aren’t great. The combination of hard hits and a high fly ball rate have also led to Duffy serving up 22 home runs already this season. Duffy has gotten shellacked in 2 starts against the Tigers this season, but that’s not something that should sway you one way or another. He’s still a decent pitcher pitching in a favorable park against a lineup consisting mostly of a bunch of guys nobody had ever heard of coming into the season. At his inexpensive price point, Duffy doesn’t need to rack up 10 strikeouts to pay off, either. I think pairing Duffy and Fulmer is a perfectly acceptable strategy on the early slate.

Quick Breakdown: Duffy is right there with Fulmer as a strong cheap option on the early slate.

Batter Grind Down

Detroit

I’m probably playing Duffy on this slate, but he’s still a lefty with a home run problem and a wide platoon split. Duffy has allowed a .346 wOBA and 12 home runs to right-handed hitters this season, which means Nick Castellanos jumps off the page as an excellent play here. Jeimer Candelario is fine, while Ronny Rodriguez and Jose Iglesias are serviceable values at their respective positions. I like the idea of playing some cheap Tigers in order to open things up elsewhere, but this isn’t the spot for a full stack.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. LH Pitching)

Elite Plays – Nick Castellanos

Secondary Plays – Jose Iglesias, Jeimer Candelario, Ronny Rodriguez

Stackability – ORANGE

Kansas City

Michael Fulmer isn’t some ace, but stacking the Royals against a decent pitcher in a pitcher-friendly park feels like a reach. Quality bats like Salvador Perez, Lucas Duda and Whit Merrifield are viable here, but they’d likely go overlooked completely on a full slate. Play them as one off in tournaments rather than going all-in with a KC stack.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

Elite Plays – None

Secondary Plays – Salvador Perez, Lucas Duda, Whit Merrifield

Stackability – RED

NY Mets at Chicago Cubs – 2:20 PM ET

NY Mets								Chicago Cubs
			Jason Vargas							Alec Mills
			LEFT							RIGHT
			Vegas Moneyline							Vegas Over/Under
			CHC-200
Stats	wOBA	xwOBA	HC%	HR/9	K%	GB%	Stats	wOBA	xwOBA	HC%	HR/9	K%	GB%
SP vs. Left (2016-17)	0.365	0.380	35.3%	1.72	16.7%	39.2%	SP vs. Left (2016-17)	0.177	0.300	22.2%	0.00	25.0%	55.6%
SP vs. Right (2016-17)	0.393	0.341	36.7%	2.02	19.5%	37.4%	SP vs. Right (2016-17)	0.121	0.145	12.5%	0.00	43.8%	37.5%

Pitcher Grind Down

Jason Vargas
	FanDuel				DraftKings				FantasyDraft
	Salary:			$6,200	Salary:			$6,100	Salary:		$12,200
	Salary Rank:			21 of 28	Salary Rank:			22 of 28	Salary Rank:		20 of 28
	Stats	Starts	SIERA	ERA	K%	BB%	GB%	HC%	SC%	aFV	SwS%
	2017	32	4.86	4.16	17.7%	7.7%	40.3%	32.7%	17.9%	85.6	9.9%
	2018	15	4.60	6.96	18.8%	7.9%	37.9%	36.3%	15.6%	86.7	10.9%
	L14	3	4.09	2.08	18.2%	4.6%	49.0%	35.3%	19.6%	86.3	11.0%

Jason Vargas hasn’t been great this season, but he’s pitched better than his 6.96 ERA might lead you to believe. The veteran lefty has a middling 18.8% K-rate along with a walk rate nearing 8%. His 4.60 SIERA isn’t great, but it’s not necessarily gas can material, either. Vargas also has a low 37.9% ground ball rate and he has allowed hard hits at a 36.3% clip. He has been fairly neutral from a splits perspective over the course of his career, though righties have hit for more power against him. The wind is blowing in instead of out at Wrigley today, which should also help. I’m not really a fan of targeting pitchers against the Cubs in general, however, and Vargas is a guy that always comes with blow-up risk. There’s a little upside here if you want a full punt, but I’d prefer to target pitchers in KC.

Quick Breakdown: Vargas isn’t really on my radar today.

Alec Mills
	FanDuel				DraftKings				FantasyDraft
	Salary:			$6,000	Salary:			$5,800	Salary:		$11,200
	Salary Rank:			24 of 28	Salary Rank:			24 of 28	Salary Rank:		22 of 28
	Stats	Starts	SIERA	ERA	K%	BB%	GB%	HC%	SC%	aFV	SwS%
	2018	1	2.16	1.17	35.7%	3.6%	47.1%	17.7%	0.0%	90.6	11.7%
	L14	1	2.24	1.59	36.4%	4.6%	53.8%	23.1%	0.0%	90.3	14.3%

Alec Mills has pitched in a couple of games this season, the most recent of which was a start 5 days ago against the Reds. The 26-year-old pitched well, holding Cincinnati to a run on 4 hits with 8 punchouts in 5.2 innings of work. The right-hander hasn’t ever shown electric strikeout stuff in the minors, so it’s safe to say his 35.7% K-rate at the big league level this season is a mirage. Mills has shown about average ground ball skills in the minors and walks haven’t been a problem for him. He may garner a little ownership today thanks to his matchup against the watered-down Mets lineup. I do prefer Mills to Vargas in this game, but without a bunch of expensive bats on the early slate I’m not sure how necessary the savings will be.

Quick Breakdown: Mills is the preferred SP in this game if you need a punt pitcher.

Batter Grind Down

NY Mets

The Mets were stifled against Jon Lester and Cole Hamels in friendly hitting conditions over the last couple of days, and now they’ll take their hacks against Alec Mills with the wind blowing in. It’s not a great spot overall, but I do think you can play a couple of them here. I’m not a big believer in Mills’ skills and most Mets are fairly cheap. Michael Conforto, Jay Bruce and Jeff McNeil look like the best plays here, as they’re affordable and they’ll hold the platoon advantage over Mills. Todd Frazier and Amed Rosario make for serviceable plays at their respective positions, too. I’d rather play one or two Mets than stack them here.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

Elite Plays – Jay Bruce, Michael Conforto, Jeff McNeil

Secondary Plays – Todd Frazier, Amed Rosario

Stackability – ORANGE

Chicago Cubs

The Cubs have a lefty-heavy lineup these days, but Vargas isn’t a lefty with a super wide split. He’s been fairly hittable against hitters of either handedness. I’d still prefer the righties like Javier Baez and Willson Contreras here, but I wouldn’t talk you out of going with Anthony Rizzo or Daniel Murphy against him. Guys like David Bote, Ben Zobrist and Jason Heyward aren’t priorities, but you can go there if you need to save a little money. The Cubs wouldn’t really be a priority on a bigger slate, but they’re one of the better offenses we have on the limited early docket.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. LH Pitching)

Elite Plays – Javier Baez, Anthony Rizzo, Willson Contreras

Secondary Plays – Ben Zobrist, Jason Heyward, David Bote, Albert Almora, Daniel Murphy

Stackability – YELLOW

Seattle at San Diego – 3:40 PM ET

Seattle								San Diego
			Erasmo Ramirez							Joey Lucchesi
			RIGHT							LEFT
			Vegas Moneyline							Vegas Over/Under
			TBD
Stats	wOBA	xwOBA	HC%	HR/9	K%	GB%	Stats	wOBA	xwOBA	HC%	HR/9	K%	GB%
SP vs. Left (2016-17)	0.434	0.493	46.8%	3.46	16.4%	36.2%	SP vs. Left (2016-17)	0.308	0.285	25.9%	0.44	25.0%	61.8%
SP vs. Right (2016-17)	0.275	0.392	55.3%	1.42	16.0%	52.6%	SP vs. Right (2016-17)	0.323	0.342	43.7%	1.73	25.3%	42.4%

Pitcher Grind Down

Erasmo Ramirez
	FanDuel				DraftKings				FantasyDraft
	Salary:			$6,100	Salary:			$6,300	Salary:		$12,900
	Salary Rank:			22 of 28	Salary Rank:			20 of 28	Salary Rank:		17 of 28
	Stats	Starts	SIERA	ERA	K%	BB%	GB%	HC%	SC%	aFV	SwS%
	2017	19	4.20	4.39	20.2%	5.8%	43.3%	38.3%	14.4%	91.6	10.2%
	2018	5	4.54	4.56	16.2%	5.4%	43.5%	50.6%	11.8%	89.9	8.2%
	L14	2	4.64	1.64	18.8%	10.4%	48.5%	54.6%	12.1%	90.1	9.7%

Nothing about Erasmo Ramirez really jumps off the page, but he’s been solid for the Mariners since being promoted into the rotation. The right-hander has a mediocre 16.2% strikeout rate on the year alongside an average 4.54 SIERA. Ramirez has yielded an unsightly hard contact rate of 50.6%, but it hasn’t really hurt him so far. He has allowed 7 homers in his 5 big league outings this season, but the home run risk is mitigated a bit going into San Diego to take on the punchless Padres. The 2018 version of Felix Hernandez shut this team down last night, so anything is possible. Ramirez makes some sense if you want a cheap pivot off of the expensive David Price in the late afternoon slate.

Quick Breakdown: Ramirez wouldn’t be a core play for me today, but I see the merit against the Padres.

Joey Lucchesi
	FanDuel				DraftKings				FantasyDraft
	Salary:			$6,700	Salary:			$7,500	Salary:		$14,400
	Salary Rank:			18 of 28	Salary Rank:			13 of 28	Salary Rank:		15 of 28
	Stats	Starts	SIERA	ERA	K%	BB%	GB%	HC%	SC%	aFV	SwS%
	2018	20	3.79	3.74	25.2%	8.4%	46.4%	39.9%	19.2%	90.4	10.0%
	L14	2	3.75	6.30	26.1%	8.7%	40.7%	43.3%	13.3%	90.9	12.9%

Joey Lucchesi has quietly been pretty good this season for the Padres. The rookie has a 3.74 ERA, and his 3.79 SIERA shows that it’s legitimate. The southpaw has a strong 25.2% strikeout rate and he’s kept the ball on the ground at a 46.4% clip. The walk rate of 8.4% is a tad high, but nothing egregious. The matchup against the Mariners isn’t ideal, but they are getting a park downgrade coming into Petco and they’ll lose the DH coming into the National League. Paying down for Lucchesi (or Ramirez) helps open up some appealing expensive bats, so I think that’s a viable strategy on this slate.

Quick Breakdown: Lucchesi is an elite value option against the Mariners.

Batter Grind Down

Seattle

We don’t have a huge sample of his work at the big league level, but Lucchesi has shown pretty traditional splits to this point. 15 of the 16 dingers he’s served up have come against right-handed hitters, and he’s allowed a .323 wOBA to RHBs. While I like Lucchesi, I still think some Mariners are in play against him. Nelson Cruz jumps to the top of that list, while Mitch Haniger, Jean Segura, Mike Zunino and Ryon Healy are decent options. Don’t count out the lefties (Kyle Seager, Robinson Cano), either. There’s quite a bit of power in this lineup, which gives Seattle some upside.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. LH Pitching)

Elite Plays – Nelson Cruz, Mitch Haniger, Mike Zunino

Secondary Plays – Kyle Seager, Ryon Healy, Robinson Cano

Stackability – YELLOW

San Diego

Ramirez has allowed a .321 wOBA in his career to lefties compared to a .309 mark against righties. Playing Padre hitters is rarely a fun strategy, but it’s not like there are tons of hitting options on this slate. I’m not a huge believer in Ramirez, and the Padres hitters are generally affordable. Wil Myers is their best hitter, so he’s the guy I’d be prioritizing. Eric Hosmer is dirt cheap, while Luis Urias will likely hit high in the order for the bare minimum price on FanDuel. Other cheapies like Travis Jankowski, Freddy Galvis, Hunter Renfroe and Austin Hedges make some sense here. I wouldn’t be loading up on Padres, but you can play a couple of them if you need some salary relief.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

Elite Plays – Luis Urias, Wil Myers, Travis Jankowski

Secondary Plays – Eric Hosmer, Austin Hedges, Hunter Renfroe

Stackability – ORANGE

Miami at Boston – 6:35 PM ET

Miami								Boston
			Trevor Richards							David Price
			RIGHT							LEFT
			Vegas Moneyline							Vegas Over/Under
			BOS-300							9.5
Stats	wOBA	xwOBA	HC%	HR/9	K%	GB%	Stats	wOBA	xwOBA	HC%	HR/9	K%	GB%
SP vs. Left (2016-17)	0.279	0.307	33.6%	0.39	24.2%	29.8%	SP vs. Left (2016-17)	0.304	0.315	29.4%	1.13	22.6%	46.3%
SP vs. Right (2016-17)	0.365	0.367	48.3%	1.29	22.6%	40.4%	SP vs. Right (2016-17)	0.298	0.330	32.0%	1.15	24.8%	39.9%

Pitcher Grind Down

Trevor Richards
	FanDuel				DraftKings				FantasyDraft
	Salary:			$6,600	Salary:			$6,000	Salary:
	Salary Rank:			19 of 28	Salary Rank:			23 of 28	Salary Rank:
	Stats	Starts	SIERA	ERA	K%	BB%	GB%	HC%	SC%	aFV	SwS%
	2018	19	4.36	4.23	23.4%	10.4%	35.6%	41.7%	14.4%	90.9	10.0%
	L14	2	4.17	6.52	25.5%	10.6%	26.7%	36.7%	16.7%	90.4	11.6%

Trevor Richards is occasionally a guy I’ll have interest in playing if he’s at home, but today he gets a massive park downgrade going into Fenway to take on a loaded Red Sox offense. Richards will also have to face a DH instead of a pitcher. His 23.4% K-rate this season is appealing, but he’s walk rate is over 10% and his hard contact rate is over 41%. Those are pretty big red flags, and the Red Sox are more than capable of making him pay. If you want a cheap pitcher, just play Ramirez or Lucchesi instead.

Quick Breakdown: Richards is an easy fade against the Red Sox.

David Price
	FanDuel				DraftKings				FantasyDraft
	Salary:			$10,200	Salary:			$10,200	Salary:
	Salary Rank:			1 of 28	Salary Rank:			1 of 28	Salary Rank:
	Stats	Starts	SIERA	ERA	K%	BB%	GB%	HC%	SC%	aFV	SwS%
	2017	11	4.05	3.38	24.0%	7.6%	39.9%	32.9%	20.7%	94.3	11.7%
	2018	25	3.79	3.50	24.4%	6.7%	40.9%	31.6%	19.2%	92.7	9.6%
	L14	2	3.09	1.20	27.3%	3.6%	45.7%	19.4%	19.4%	93.0	7.8%

David Price figures to be the chalk pitcher du jour as he gets to take on the Marlins. Price carries a respectable 24.4% strikeout rate and 3.79 SIERA into his outing this afternoon. The hard contact rate of 31.6% against him isn’t bad, but his fly ball tendency has resulted in 19 homers allowed across his 25 starts. The Marlins aren’t a good offense by any means, but they get the big park boost and they’ll be adding a DH. The DH probably won’t be anybody good, but it’ll still be a better hitter than a pitcher would’ve been. There are enough cheap bats on the slate to where you can squeeze Price in if you want, but Miami has an annoyingly low 21.7% K-rate this season against left-handed pitching.

Quick Breakdown: Price is an elite play, but the only hindrance is his hefty price tag.

Batter Grind Down

Miami

David Price isn’t necessarily untouchable anymore, so I do like a few Marlins hitters against him today. Fenway is a great park for right-handed power, and the way to attack Price is with RHBs. J.T. Realmuto is a tremendous catching option, while Starlin Castro and Brian Anderson are your next-best plays. If you need some savings, Rafael Ortega has been hitting high in the lineup lately, while J.T. Riddle and Miguel Rojas are basically free. I’d prioritize Realmuto and Castro. You can stack Miami if you want to be different.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. LH Pitching)

Elite Plays – J.T. Realmuto, Starlin Castro

Secondary Plays – Brian Anderson, J.T. Riddle, Miguel Rojas

Stackability – ORANGE

Boston

Trevor Richards isn’t bad, but the Red Sox are at home today. You know what to do in these situations. Richards has flashed some pretty strong reverse splits this season, which is even better. J.D. Martinez, Mookie Betts and Xander Bogaerts will happily take advantage of said splits. While Richards has looked better against lefties, I still think you can feel comfortable rostering Mitch Moreland and Andrew Benintendi in this spot. Jackie Bradley is a fine enough punt option. The Red Sox are the top offense of the afternoon and it isn’t all that close.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

Elite Plays – Mookie Betts, J.D. Martinez, Andrew Benintendi, Mitch Moreland, Xander Bogaerts

Secondary Plays – Brock Holt, Eduardo Nunez, Jackie Bradley

Stackability – GREEN

Note: Unless noted, all statistics in the Grind Down are from the 2018 season.

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