MLB Grind Down: Wednesday, August 9th

by Derek Farnsworth (Notorious) Last Updated 2017-08-10 02:23:53

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The RotoGrinders MLB Grind Down will give you an in-depth analysis into the upcoming MLB schedule. This article will break down the numbers for every single game and give you analysis on which trends you can exploit. While matchups are a major factor in daily fantasy baseball, there are plenty of other factors to consider such as injuries, weather, and salaries.

The analysis should point you in the right direction, but it is still up to you to decipher the information and make your own selections. No sport has more variance than baseball. The best choice is not always the right choice but following the trends will win you money over time.

Note: As always, if you want to try a new DFS site, be sure to click through a RotoGrinders link and use our DraftKings promo code, FanDuel promo code, and FantasyDraft promo code to receive the best perks in the industry.

Stackability Rating System:

GREEN – A viable full stack in cash games and GPPs.
YELLOW – A viable mini-stack in cash games and full stack in GPPs.
ORANGE – A viable stack in large field GPPs.
RED – Not a recommended stack for cash games or GPPs.

Colorado at Cleveland – 12:10 PM ET

Stats	wOBA	xwOBA	HC%	BB%	K%	GB%	Stats	wOBA	xwOBA	HC%	BB%	K%	GB%
Colorado								Cleveland
			Antonio Senzatela							Trevor Bauer
			RIGHT							RIGHT
			Vegas Moneyline							Vegas Over/Under
			CLE-170							9.5
SP vs. Left (2016-17)	0.320	0.314	28.7%	9.3%	15.4%	50.6%	SP vs. Left (2016-17)	0.320	0.328	35.6%	8.3%	23.7%	41.5%
SP vs. Right (2016-17)	0.322	0.324	29.9%	6.8%	20.0%	46.8%	SP vs. Right (2016-17)	0.320	0.329	31.2%	9.1%	21.3%	53.4%

Pitcher Grind Down

	Stats	Starts	SIERA	ERA	K%	BB%	GB%	HC%	SC%
Antonio Senzatela
	FanDuel			DraftKings			FantasyDraft
	Salary:		$6,000	Salary:		$5,800	Salary:
	Salary Rank:		24 of 30	Salary Rank:		22 of 30	Salary Rank:		of 30

	2017	17	4.64	4.78	17.7%	8.1%	48.8%	29.3%	18.0%
	L30	2	4.85	5.79	18.0%	9.8%	47.7%	34.1%	20.5%

Happy hump day everyone. We are half the way to Friday and only one day away from the PGA Championship if you like to dabble in PGA DFS. We have five early games on the schedule and ten late games. It looks like FanDuel has a two-game and a three-game early slate, DraftKings has a five-game early slate, and at the time of writing this, FantasyDraft doesn’t have an early slate. With all of the different variations, I’m going to break down the plays without respect to the other options in the early games.

Senzatela has mediocre numbers this season – 4.64 SIERA with a strikeout rate of only 18%. He comes into today’s game as a large underdog and he’s facing an Indians’ offense that is ranked sixth in team wOBA and seventh in strikeout rate against right-handed pitching. This is a bad matchup for a mediocre pitcher.

Quick Breakdown: Avoid Senzatela in all formats.

	Stats	Starts	SIERA	ERA	K%	BB%	GB%	HC%	SC%
Trevor Bauer
	FanDuel			DraftKings			FantasyDraft
	Salary:		$8,500	Salary:		$8,700	Salary:
	Salary Rank:		9 of 30	Salary Rank:		9 of 30	Salary Rank:		of 30
	2016	28	4.22	4.26	20.7%	8.6%	48.7%	31.9%	19.0%
	2017	21	3.98	5.00	25.3%	9.0%	46.5%	35.5%	14.3%
	L30	4	4.47	3.92	23.1%	11.0%	43.3%	26.7%	15.0%

Bauer is more talented than his 5.00 ERA suggests and he’s certainly a much better DFS option than the ERA suggests. In 21 starts this season, he has a 3.98 SIERA with a strikeout rate of 25%. He’s given up too much hard contact this season, but he gets to face a Rockies’ offense that has struggled away from Coors Field this season. Colorado also strikes out at a fairly high rate on the road and Bauer is a large favorite that is affordable on both FanDuel and DraftKings.

Quick Breakdown: It’s strange, but Bauer is viable in both cash games and tournaments.

Batter Grind Down

Colorado

The Rockies draw a decent matchup against Trevor Bauer, who has allowed a 36% hard contact rate this season. Bauer has neutral splits against left and right-handed hitters, so if you feel strongly about a Rockies’ hitter, I’m not going to talk you off of them. However, the early slate is filled with exploitable matchups. Charlie Blackmon is the one-off target that I want some exposure to, as he owns a .415 wOBA with a 39% hard contact rate against righties this season.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

#	Player	Bats	wOBA	xwOBA	ISO	HC%	BB%	K%	GB%	FD Pos.	FD Sal.	DK Pos.	DK Sal.	FDRFT Pos.	FDRFT Sal.
1	Charlie Blackmon	LEFT	0.415	0.363	0.286	38.8%	8.9%	21.4%	34.7%	OF	$4,400	OF	$5,500	N/A	N/A
2	DJ LeMahieu	RIGHT	0.317	0.323	0.065	27.6%	8.4%	13.8%	57.8%	2B	$3,100	2B	$4,000	N/A	N/A
3	Nolan Arenado	RIGHT	0.352	0.329	0.230	36.1%	7.5%	18.2%	37.0%	3B	$4,100	3B	$5,400	N/A	N/A
4	Mark Reynolds	RIGHT	0.397	0.337	0.259	34.9%	9.6%	27.8%	42.1%	1B	$2,900	1B	$4,600	N/A	N/A
5	Gerardo Parra	LEFT	0.381	0.329	0.201	39.3%	4.9%	13.0%	49.0%	OF	$2,900	OF	$4,400	N/A	N/A
6	Carlos Gonzalez	LEFT	0.292	0.300	0.132	26.9%	10.8%	19.8%	46.9%	OF	$2,800	OF	$3,600	N/A	N/A
7	Trevor Story	RIGHT	0.271	0.255	0.138	32.2%	9.1%	35.5%	34.7%	SS	$2,700	SS	$3,400	N/A	N/A
8	Jonathan Lucroy	RIGHT	0.287	0.303	0.094	23.7%	7.2%	11.2%	53.5%	C	$2,200	C	$3,700	N/A	N/A
9	Raimel Tapia	LEFT	0.352	0.260	0.141	21.4%	6.5%	17.2%	42.6%	OF	$2,600	OF	$3,500	N/A	N/A

Elite Plays – Charlie Blackmon (on non-Bauer lineups)

Secondary Plays – Nolan Arenado, Gerardo Parra

Stackability – ORANGE

Cleveland

There isn’t anything that really stands out when looking at the splits for Antonio Senzatela. In 17 starts, he has held both left and right-handed hitters under a .325 xwOBA and under a 30% hard contact rate. Those aren’t as bad as the splits for a lot of major league pitchers. With that said, he’s pitching on the road against a talented Indians’ offense. Cleveland has a high implied total and their lineup is stacked now that Jason Kipnis is back in the mix. Outside of Kipnis, the Indians’ bats are expensive on DraftKings, but they are more affordable on FanDuel.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

#	Player	Bats	wOBA	xwOBA	ISO	HC%	BB%	K%	GB%	FD Pos.	FD Sal.	DK Pos.	DK Sal.	FDRFT Pos.	FDRFT Sal.
1	Jason Kipnis	LEFT	0.296	0.299	0.170	31.8%	6.7%	19.6%	32.8%	2B	$2,700	2B	$3,800	N/A	N/A
2	Francisco Lindor	SWITCH	0.309	0.323	0.192	30.5%	7.7%	14.1%	39.2%	SS	$3,600	SS	$4,800	N/A	N/A
3	Michael Brantley	LEFT	0.365	0.371	0.181	40.2%	10.2%	13.9%	48.4%	OF	$3,800	OF	$4,600	N/A	N/A
4	Jose Ramirez	SWITCH	0.394	0.351	0.252	33.6%	7.9%	11.0%	37.2%	3B	$3,500	2B/3B	$4,700	N/A	N/A
5	Edwin Encarnacion	RIGHT	0.351	0.359	0.233	37.6%	12.3%	22.2%	35.0%	1B	$3,500	1B	$4,400	N/A	N/A
6	Carlos Santana	SWITCH	0.347	0.376	0.207	36.8%	13.4%	20.1%	33.5%	1B	$3,200	1B	$4,600	N/A	N/A
7	Bradley Zimmer	LEFT	0.343	0.324	0.204	37.1%	9.6%	28.3%	45.5%	OF	$2,800	OF	$4,600	N/A	N/A
8	Abraham Almonte	SWITCH	0.347	0.337	0.189	35.5%	10.8%	27.5%	45.2%	OF	$2,100	OF	$3,800	N/A	N/A
9	Roberto Perez	RIGHT	0.227	0.242	0.057	23.4%	7.3%	26.0%	50.0%	C	$2,000	C	$2,500	N/A	N/A

Elite Plays – Jose Ramirez

Secondary Plays – Jason Kipnis, Francisco Lindor, Edwin Encarnacion, Carlos Santana

Stackability – YELLOW

Texas at NY Mets – 12:10 PM ET

Stats	wOBA	xwOBA	HC%	BB%	K%	GB%	Stats	wOBA	xwOBA	HC%	BB%	K%	GB%
Texas								NY Mets
			Martin Perez							Rafael Montero
			LEFT							RIGHT
			Vegas Moneyline							Vegas Over/Under
			NYM-116							9.5
SP vs. Left (2016-17)	0.282	0.295	23.8%	8.9%	20.4%	56.2%	SP vs. Left (2016-17)	0.369	0.328	25.9%	11.8%	18.3%	42.3%
SP vs. Right (2016-17)	0.355	0.371	34.8%	8.7%	11.2%	49.2%	SP vs. Right (2016-17)	0.384	0.336	29.9%	13.1%	24.3%	44.6%

Pitcher Grind Down

	Stats	Starts	SIERA	ERA	K%	BB%	GB%	HC%	SC%
Martin Perez
	FanDuel			DraftKings			FantasyDraft
	Salary:		$5,600	Salary:		$5,500	Salary:
	Salary Rank:		27 of 30	Salary Rank:		23 of 30	Salary Rank:		of 30
	2016	33	5.11	4.39	12.1%	8.9%	53.2%	30.7%	15.9%
	2017	21	5.10	5.46	14.5%	8.4%	45.8%	36.6%	14.7%
	L30	5	5.37	8.07	9.4%	6.3%	49.5%	41.1%	18.7%

Perez is tentatively expected to draw the start today, but if that changes, I’ll get the tables and analysis updated right away. Assuming Perez draws the start, he is an easy fade in all formats. He has a low strikeout rate, a high SIERA, and a 37% hard contact rate. He’s pitching on the road, he’s listed as an underdog, and the Mets are an above-average offense against left-handed pitching.

Quick Breakdown: Avoid Perez in all formats.

	Stats	Starts	SIERA	ERA	K%	BB%	GB%	HC%	SC%
Rafael Montero
	FanDuel			DraftKings			FantasyDraft
	Salary:		$6,400	Salary:		$5,400	Salary:
	Salary Rank:		22 of 30	Salary Rank:		25 of 30	Salary Rank:		of 30
	2016	3	5.40	8.05	21.5%	17.2%	35.7%	31.6%	17.5%
	2017	8	4.59	5.78	21.7%	11.0%	45.9%	26.9%	18.1%
	L30	4	4.53	6.00	20.8%	8.5%	43.8%	25.7%	20.3%

Montero has a decent strikeout rate (22%) this season, but he has a 4.59 SIERA with a high walk rate. He hasn’t been a great fantasy option and I don’t expect that to change today against the Rangers. While Texas may be out of playoff contention, they still have plenty of firepower in their lineup. We don’t see many Citi Field games with a total of 9.5 runs, which is an immediate red flag for both of the starting pitchers.

Quick Breakdown: Avoid Montero in all formats.

Batter Grind Down

Texas

The Rangers lose the use of the DH in this series and are playing in a pitcher-friendly ballpark, but they draw an exploitable matchup against Rafael Montero, who can struggle with his command at times. Montero’s splits are fairly neutral, as he has allowed a .328 xwOBA to lefties and a .336 xwOBA to righties in the last two seasons. The one through five batters are viable here, as is Joey Gallo, who just continues to mash baseballs into space.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

#	Player	Bats	wOBA	xwOBA	ISO	HC%	BB%	K%	GB%	FD Pos.	FD Sal.	DK Pos.	DK Sal.	FDRFT Pos.	FDRFT Sal.
1	Shin-soo Choo	LEFT	0.339	0.378	0.168	39.9%	12.9%	21.1%	45.7%	OF	$3,400	OF	$3,900	N/A	N/A
2	Elvis Andrus	RIGHT	0.360	0.300	0.188	29.8%	5.5%	17.1%	47.8%	SS	$3,800	SS	$5,300	N/A	N/A
3	Nomar Mazara	LEFT	0.341	0.336	0.207	33.8%	10.6%	19.4%	39.2%	OF	$3,200	OF	$4,200	N/A	N/A
4	Adrian Beltre	RIGHT	0.362	0.334	0.243	36.8%	7.7%	12.2%	49.7%	3B	$4,000	3B	$4,100	N/A	N/A
5	Rougned Odor	LEFT	0.310	0.312	0.249	38.7%	4.1%	23.8%	39.0%	2B	$3,200	2B	$3,600	N/A	N/A
6	Mike Napoli	RIGHT	0.293	0.310	0.211	37.0%	8.7%	32.1%	35.2%	1B	$3,000	1B	$3,000	N/A	N/A
7	Joey Gallo	LEFT	0.360	0.353	0.346	43.2%	13.8%	35.8%	27.3%	1B	$3,400	1B/3B	$4,300	N/A	N/A
8	Carlos Gomez	RIGHT	0.349	0.341	0.239	43.8%	9.1%	30.8%	38.7%	OF	$3,200	OF	$3,600	N/A	N/A
9	Robinson Chirinos	RIGHT	0.300	0.314	0.280	37.0%	6.6%	28.7%	37.5%	C	$2,100	C	$3,000	N/A	N/A

Elite Plays – Shin-Soo Choo, Adrian Beltre

Secondary Plays – Elvis Andrus, Nomar Mazara, Rougned Odor, Joey Gallo

Stackability – YELLOW

NY Mets

If the Mets do end up facing Martin Perez, they will be licking their chops (at least those that bat from the right side of the plate). Since the start of last season, Perez has allowed a .371 xwOBA and a 35% hard contact rate to righties. Yoenis Cespedes is criminally underpriced on DraftKings at $3,500. He currently owns a .359 xwOBA with a 36% hard contact rate against southpaws this season.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. LH Pitching)

#	Player	Bats	wOBA	xwOBA	ISO	HC%	BB%	K%	GB%	FD Pos.	FD Sal.	DK Pos.	DK Sal.	FDRFT Pos.	FDRFT Sal.
1	Michael Conforto	LEFT	0.354	0.359	0.268	43.1%	8.7%	33.7%	33.3%	OF	$4,300	OF	$4,500	N/A	N/A
2	Asdrubal Cabrera	SWITCH	0.332	0.297	0.092	32.9%	4.4%	15.4%	48.6%	3B	$2,700	2B/SS	$3,400	N/A	N/A
3	Yoenis Cespedes	RIGHT	0.353	0.359	0.302	45.8%	8.7%	21.7%	29.2%	OF	$3,200	OF	$3,500	N/A	N/A
4	Wilmer Flores	RIGHT	0.336	0.298	0.244	41.1%	2.2%	17.6%	37.0%	1B	$2,800	1B/3B	$3,500	N/A	N/A
5	Curtis Granderson	LEFT	0.308	0.316	0.198	35.8%	9.3%	21.6%	35.8%	OF	$2,600	OF	$4,400	N/A	N/A
6	Jose Reyes	SWITCH	0.338	0.282	0.202	26.4%	10.4%	12.5%	38.6%	SS	$2,300	3B/SS	$2,800	N/A	N/A
7	Amed Rosario	RIGHT	0.000	0.105	0.000	0.0%	0.0%	50.0%	50.0%	SS	$2,600	SS	$2,900	N/A	N/A
8	Travis d’Arnaud	RIGHT	0.423	0.351	0.268	41.5%	12.5%	23.4%	51.2%	C	$2,100	C	$2,900	N/A	N/A
9	Rafael Montero	RIGHT	0.000	0.017	0.000	0.0%	0.0%	33.3%	50.0%	P	$6,400	P	$5,400	N/A	N/A

Elite Plays – Yoenis Cespedes

Secondary Plays – Michael Conforto, Asdrubal Cabrera, Wilmer Flores, Travis d’Arnaud

Stackability – YELLOW

Seattle at Oakland – 3:35 PM ET

Stats	wOBA	xwOBA	HC%	BB%	K%	GB%	Stats	wOBA	xwOBA	HC%	BB%	K%	GB%
Seattle								Oakland
			Yovani Gallardo							Jharel Cotton
			RIGHT							RIGHT
			Vegas Moneyline							Vegas Over/Under
			OAK-109							9.5
SP vs. Left (2016-17)	0.330	0.329	30.1%	12.7%	18.0%	39.9%	SP vs. Left (2016-17)	0.315	0.290	27.8%	12.2%	18.8%	37.1%
SP vs. Right (2016-17)	0.351	0.342	29.6%	9.3%	14.6%	48.0%	SP vs. Right (2016-17)	0.329	0.289	32.8%	5.8%	20.6%	37.9%

Pitcher Grind Down

	Stats	Starts	SIERA	ERA	K%	BB%	GB%	HC%	SC%
Yovani Gallardo
	FanDuel			DraftKings			FantasyDraft
	Salary:		$5,700	Salary:		$6,600	Salary:
	Salary Rank:		27 of 30	Salary Rank:		17 of 30	Salary Rank:		of 30
	2016	23	5.34	5.42	16.2%	11.6%	43.2%	27.5%	18.5%
	2017	17	5.16	5.35	16.3%	10.0%	45.7%	32.5%	20.1%
	L30	3	6.65	3.78	11.0%	13.7%	40.0%	27.3%	18.2%

Gallardo is another subpar pitcher taking the mound in the early slate. In 17 starts this season, he has a 5.16 SIERA with a strikeout rate of 16% and a 10% walk rate. He doesn’t give up a ton of hard contact, but with such a low strikeout rate, eventually the singles are going to turn into runs. The A’s aren’t really known as a high-powered offense, but six of their projected starters have an ISO over .175 against right-handed pitching this season.

Quick Breakdown: Avoid Gallardo in all formats.

	Stats	Starts	SIERA	ERA	K%	BB%	GB%	HC%	SC%
Jharel Cotton
	FanDuel			DraftKings			FantasyDraft
	Salary:		$6,800	Salary:		$6,200	Salary:
	Salary Rank:		18 of 30	Salary Rank:		20 of 30	Salary Rank:		of 30
	2016	5	4.02	2.15	20.5%	3.6%	37.6%	28.2%	22.4%
	2017	16	4.96	5.48	19.6%	10.1%	37.5%	31.5%	21.5%
	L30	2	5.92	8.31	15.9%	13.6%	40.0%	23.3%	13.3%

Cotton was expected to take a leap forward this season, but he has gone in the opposite direction. His command hasn’t been nearly as sharp this season, which has led to a 4.96 SIERA and a 10% walk rate. His matchup against the Mariners is mediocre, as they are ranked right around the major league average in both team wOBA and strikeout rate against right-handed pitching. He does benefit from playing in a park that favors fly-ball pitchers, but Cotton is a risky option in the early slate.

Quick Breakdown: Cotton is a deep GPP play at best.

Batter Grind Down

Seattle

Both of these offenses have exploitable matchups today, but they are playing in a pitcher-friendly ballpark. Sometimes we see the offenses win out in these situations and sometimes we see the ballpark win out. It’s a bit strange, but even with his struggles, Jharel Cotton has held both left and right-handed hitters under a .290 xwOBA in the last two seasons. The one through five hitters are viable, but none of them stand out as elite plays at their respective positions.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

#	Player	Bats	wOBA	xwOBA	ISO	HC%	BB%	K%	GB%	FD Pos.	FD Sal.	DK Pos.	DK Sal.	FDRFT Pos.	FDRFT Sal.
1	Jean Segura	RIGHT	0.342	0.281	0.123	25.4%	3.9%	17.9%	58.1%	SS	$3,800	SS	$4,400	N/A	N/A
2	Yonder Alonso	LEFT	0.394	0.389	0.271	32.1%	14.7%	22.7%	31.6%	1B	$3,000	1B	$3,800	N/A	N/A
3	Robinson Cano	LEFT	0.363	0.387	0.227	38.4%	9.7%	10.7%	51.8%	2B	$3,500	2B	$4,000	N/A	N/A
4	Nelson Cruz	RIGHT	0.361	0.358	0.243	37.6%	7.4%	21.1%	41.9%	OF	$4,500	OF	$4,800	N/A	N/A
5	Kyle Seager	LEFT	0.323	0.380	0.183	39.7%	9.4%	15.8%	31.4%	3B	$4,000	3B	$4,000	N/A	N/A
6	Ben Gamel	LEFT	0.341	0.303	0.123	27.2%	8.6%	22.7%	42.1%	OF	$2,600	OF	$3,200	N/A	N/A
7	Jarrod Dyson	LEFT	0.318	0.284	0.128	18.8%	7.3%	15.7%	44.2%	OF	$2,700	OF	$3,800	N/A	N/A
8	Mike Zunino	RIGHT	0.315	0.303	0.242	37.5%	7.7%	39.4%	30.4%	C	$2,100	C	$3,200	N/A	N/A
9	Leonys Martin	LEFT	0.168	0.207	0.060	25.5%	2.9%	29.0%	44.4%	OF	$2,500	OF	$3,100	N/A	N/A

Elite Plays – None

Secondary Plays – Jean Segura, Yonder Alonso, Robinson Cano, Nelson Cruz, Kyle Seager

Stackability – YELLOW

Oakland

The biggest weakness of the A’s this season has been their high strikeout rate. Strikeouts don’t accomplish anything other than making the walk back to the dugout a little shorter. I prefer to target them against low-strikeout pitchers because that negates their weakness. Yovani Gallardo fits the mold with a strikeout rate of only 16% this season. He has struggled with both left and right-handed hitters, which makes the A’s offense one of the more intriguing targets in the early slate.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

#	Player	Bats	wOBA	xwOBA	ISO	HC%	BB%	K%	GB%	FD Pos.	FD Sal.	DK Pos.	DK Sal.	FDRFT Pos.	FDRFT Sal.
1	Matt Joyce	LEFT	0.337	0.360	0.217	32.3%	14.2%	19.7%	33.2%	OF	$3,100	OF	$3,900	N/A	N/A
2	Marcus Semien	RIGHT	0.316	0.327	0.151	27.6%	12.2%	25.2%	34.2%	SS	$3,300	SS	$3,400	N/A	N/A
3	Jed Lowrie	SWITCH	0.347	0.371	0.179	37.7%	9.8%	15.4%	26.1%	2B	$2,700	2B	$3,700	N/A	N/A
4	Khris Davis	RIGHT	0.364	0.375	0.297	40.8%	10.0%	32.2%	40.8%	OF	$4,100	OF	$4,100	N/A	N/A
5	Ryon Healy	RIGHT	0.281	0.303	0.181	38.1%	3.6%	27.0%	43.9%	1B	$3,000	1B/3B	$3,400	N/A	N/A
6	Matt Chapman	RIGHT	0.367	0.303	0.313	39.0%	11.5%	26.0%	33.9%	3B	$3,100	3B	$2,400	N/A	N/A
7	Matt Olson	LEFT	0.364	0.338	0.310	40.0%	14.0%	34.0%	36.0%	OF	$2,000	1B/OF	$2,000	N/A	N/A
8	Bruce Maxwell	LEFT	0.312	0.308	0.094	37.1%	15.7%	23.5%	45.7%	C	$2,400	C	$2,500	N/A	N/A
9	Jaycob Brugman	LEFT	0.327	0.291	0.090	23.1%	11.5%	23.0%	46.7%	OF	$2,400	OF	$2,400	N/A	N/A

Elite Plays – Marcus Semien, Jed Lowrie, Khris Davis

Secondary Plays – Matt Joyce, Matt Chapman, Matt Olson

Stackability – YELLOW / GREEN

Baltimore at LA Angels – 3:37 PM ET

Stats	wOBA	xwOBA	HC%	BB%	K%	GB%	Stats	wOBA	xwOBA	HC%	BB%	K%	GB%
Baltimore								LA Angels
			Kevin Gausman							Troy Scribner
			RIGHT							RIGHT
			Vegas Moneyline							Vegas Over/Under
			BAL-110							9.5
SP vs. Left (2016-17)	0.324	0.325	33.6%	8.3%	21.6%	38.2%	SP vs. Left (2016-17)	0.259	0.359	27.3%	23.8%	23.8%	9.1%
SP vs. Right (2016-17)	0.347	0.334	31.7%	6.9%	22.5%	47.9%	SP vs. Right (2016-17)	0.382	0.397	30.8%	0.0%	0.0%	23.1%

Pitcher Grind Down

	Stats	Starts	SIERA	ERA	K%	BB%	GB%	HC%	SC%
Kevin Gausman
	FanDuel			DraftKings			FantasyDraft
	Salary:		$9,100	Salary:		$9,900	Salary:
	Salary Rank:		6 of 30	Salary Rank:		5 of 30	Salary Rank:		of 30
	2016	30	3.81	3.61	23.0%	6.2%	44.1%	31.1%	18.3%
	2017	24	4.56	5.15	20.9%	9.3%	43.1%	34.5%	17.9%
	L30	5	3.33	2.93	30.1%	8.1%	50.7%	40.8%	15.8%

Gausman has turned a corner. Take his season long statistics and throw them out the window. He’s had five terrific outings in his last six starts and looks like a completely different pitchers. Over his last five, he has a 3.33 SIERA with a strikeout rate of 30%. He’s still getting little to no love from the oddsmakers, which only helps lower his ownership. He draws a decent matchup today against the Angels and he gets to face them in a pitcher-friendly ballpark. If he can pitch around Mike Trout, Gausman should be one of the top scoring pitchers in the slate.

Quick Breakdown: Gausman is viable on both cash games and tournaments.

	Stats	Starts	SIERA	ERA	K%	BB%	GB%	HC%	SC%
Troy Scribner
	FanDuel			DraftKings			FantasyDraft
	Salary:		$5,500	Salary:		$4,800	Salary:
	Salary Rank:		28 of 30	Salary Rank:		28 of 30	Salary Rank:		of 30

	2017	1	7.06	4.50	14.7%	14.7%	16.7%	29.2%	16.7%
	L30	1	7.06	4.50	14.7%	14.7%	16.7%	29.2%	16.7%

Scribner’s major league career got off to a rocky start, but he showed some nice upside in his 17 minor league starts before being called up. Right-handed pitchers against the Orioles and the Tigers always see a boost because both offenses have right-handed heavy lineups. Scribner is certainly a wildcard, but he’s only $4,800 on DraftKings if you want to take a shot on him in tournaments.

Quick Breakdown: Scribner is a deep GPP flier in the five-game early slate on DraftKings.

Batter Grind Down

Baltimore

When we have rookie pitchers making their first few starts in the majors, their range of outcomes is very wide. More times than not, we see the opposing offense tee off on the young pitchers. Angels Stadium is tough for hitters, but the Orioles make a lot of sense as a stack in tournaments. They have home run upside, they are a decent offense against right-handed pitching, and they aren’t that expensive. For cash games, I will likely be avoiding the both sides of the situation.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

#	Player	Bats	wOBA	xwOBA	ISO	HC%	BB%	K%	GB%	FD Pos.	FD Sal.	DK Pos.	DK Sal.	FDRFT Pos.	FDRFT Sal.
1	Adam Jones	RIGHT	0.330	0.309	0.184	31.8%	3.6%	16.9%	45.7%	OF	$3,300	OF	$4,300	N/A	N/A
2	Manny Machado	RIGHT	0.327	0.356	0.197	37.5%	8.8%	17.7%	42.1%	3B	$4,400	3B	$5,000	N/A	N/A
3	Jonathan Schoop	RIGHT	0.376	0.324	0.237	33.1%	4.8%	20.3%	40.6%	2B	$4,100	2B	$4,700	N/A	N/A
4	Mark Trumbo	RIGHT	0.305	0.325	0.174	31.7%	8.6%	22.9%	42.9%	OF	$3,300	OF	$3,500	N/A	N/A
5	Chris Davis	LEFT	0.332	0.332	0.267	42.0%	13.1%	36.0%	32.4%	1B	$3,600	1B	$3,400	N/A	N/A
6	Trey Mancini	RIGHT	0.403	0.351	0.269	34.3%	6.9%	24.1%	52.4%	OF	$3,300	1B/OF	$3,600	N/A	N/A
7	Tim Beckham	RIGHT	0.339	0.320	0.193	45.4%	5.7%	31.7%	47.5%	SS	$3,100	SS	$4,500	N/A	N/A
8	Seth Smith	LEFT	0.341	0.353	0.186	35.8%	9.5%	21.3%	41.5%	OF	$3,100	OF	$3,800	N/A	N/A
9	Welington Castillo	RIGHT	0.325	0.329	0.189	35.2%	5.4%	25.4%	43.8%	C	$3,200	C	$3,600	N/A	N/A

Elite Plays – None

Secondary Plays – Adam Jones, Manny Machado, Jonathan Schoop, Mark Trumbo, Chris Davis

Stackability – YELLOW

LA Angels

If the Angels were facing Kevin Gausman before the All-Star break, I’d have a ton of interest in their offense. However, Gausman looks like he did in 2016, which was a very good pitcher with a high strikeout rate. I always have interest in Mike Trout as a one-off, but the rest of the Angels’ hitters lack upside.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

#	Player	Bats	wOBA	xwOBA	ISO	HC%	BB%	K%	GB%	FD Pos.	FD Sal.	DK Pos.	DK Sal.	FDRFT Pos.	FDRFT Sal.
1	Cameron Maybin	RIGHT	0.323	0.323	0.164	27.6%	15.4%	18.8%	58.6%	OF	$2,500	OF	$3,300	N/A	N/A
2	Mike Trout	RIGHT	0.474	0.447	0.385	42.3%	16.8%	19.3%	34.9%	OF	$5,100	OF	$5,700	N/A	N/A
3	Albert Pujols	RIGHT	0.283	0.308	0.167	33.7%	5.5%	15.6%	43.8%	1B	$2,700	1B	$3,200	N/A	N/A
4	Kole Calhoun	LEFT	0.302	0.313	0.128	32.6%	9.3%	21.7%	43.0%	OF	$2,800	OF	$3,400	N/A	N/A
5	Andrelton Simmons	RIGHT	0.356	0.319	0.165	32.6%	6.1%	9.9%	51.8%	SS	$3,400	SS	$3,900	N/A	N/A
6	Luis Valbuena	LEFT	0.282	0.298	0.181	34.5%	9.5%	24.8%	38.9%	3B	$2,000	1B/3B	$2,000	N/A	N/A
7	C.J. Cron	RIGHT	0.273	0.338	0.092	31.9%	5.3%	19.8%	33.0%	1B	$2,600	1B	$3,400	N/A	N/A
8	Martin Maldonado	RIGHT	0.287	0.280	0.173	27.5%	2.5%	24.4%	47.8%	C	$2,000	C	$2,200	N/A	N/A
9	Kaleb Cowart	SWITCH	0.473	0.389	0.300	50.0%	5.9%	20.6%	34.8%	2B	$2,900	2B	$2,100	N/A	N/A

Elite Plays – Mike Trout (GPP)

Secondary Plays – Mike Trout (Cash)

Stackability – ORANGE

Chicago Cubs at San Francisco – 3:45 PM ET

Stats	wOBA	xwOBA	HC%	BB%	K%	GB%	Stats	wOBA	xwOBA	HC%	BB%	K%	GB%
Chicago Cubs								San Francisco
			Kyle Hendricks							Madison Bumgarner
			RIGHT							LEFT
			Vegas Moneyline							Vegas Over/Under
			CHC-103							7.5
SP vs. Left (2016-17)	0.277	0.290	27.8%	6.3%	22.0%	46.1%	SP vs. Left (2016-17)	0.239	0.266	27.1%	5.5%	30.0%	31.9%
SP vs. Right (2016-17)	0.260	0.271	29.6%	6.3%	21.8%	50.9%	SP vs. Right (2016-17)	0.275	0.287	33.5%	5.7%	25.8%	41.7%

Pitcher Grind Down

	Stats	Starts	SIERA	ERA	K%	BB%	GB%	HC%	SC%
Kyle Hendricks
	FanDuel			DraftKings			FantasyDraft
	Salary:		$8,000	Salary:		$8,600	Salary:
	Salary Rank:		11 of 30	Salary Rank:		10 of 30	Salary Rank:		of 30
	2016	30	3.70	2.13	22.8%	5.9%	48.4%	25.8%	25.1%
	2017	14	4.26	3.81	19.8%	7.1%	49.8%	35.5%	22.7%
	L30	3	3.95	2.76	18.6%	2.9%	45.5%	32.7%	23.6%

Hendricks hasn’t been quite as good as he was last season, but he’s still an above-average pitcher. He has an average strikeout rate, an above-average ground ball rate, and he induces a lot of soft contact. Today’s game against the Giants is basically listed as a pick ‘em, which goes to show how bad the Giants’ offense has been this season. This is one of those games that you target for pitching and avoid batters from both sides.

Quick Breakdown: Hendricks is viable in both cash games and tournaments.

	Stats	Starts	SIERA	ERA	K%	BB%	GB%	HC%	SC%
Madison Bumgarner
	FanDuel			DraftKings			FantasyDraft
	Salary:		$10,200	Salary:		$12,600	Salary:
	Salary Rank:		1 of 30	Salary Rank:		1 of 30	Salary Rank:		of 30
	2016	34	3.36	2.74	27.5%	5.9%	39.6%	31.6%	19.4%
	2017	9	3.83	2.88	23.1%	4.6%	41.2%	35.3%	18.5%
	L30	5	4.17	2.78	21.5%	5.4%	37.0%	36.2%	18.1%

The DFS industry as a whole may have overblown the whole “Bumgarner’s velocity is down” ordeal. Sure, it has taken a small hit since coming back from his injury, but he’s looked fine in his last five starts, posting a 2.78 ERA (4.18 SIERA) with a strikeout rate of 22%. The reason to fade Bumgarner today isn’t his form, it’s his matchup. On the season, the Cubs are ranked third in team wOBA against left-handed pitching. Bumgarner is the most expensive pitcher in the entire slate (including the night games).

Quick Breakdown: Bumgarner is a bit overpriced for a matchup against the Cubs. He’s in play, but I’ll be looking for better value.

Batter Grind Down

Chicago Cubs

Madison Bumgarner has allowed more hard contact this season, but he’s still not a pitcher that I want to target hitters against, especially in this ballpark. In the last two seasons, he has held both left and right-handed hitters under a .290 xwOBA. Kris Bryant absolutely mashes left-handed pitching, but I’m not sure I want to pay a premium for him in this matchup and in this ballpark.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. LH Pitching)

#	Player	Bats	wOBA	xwOBA	ISO	HC%	BB%	K%	GB%	FD Pos.	FD Sal.	DK Pos.	DK Sal.	FDRFT Pos.	FDRFT Sal.
1	Ben Zobrist	SWITCH	0.255	0.286	0.149	30.9%	10.5%	17.1%	50.9%	OF	$2,900	2B/OF	$3,400	N/A	N/A
2	Kris Bryant	RIGHT	0.407	0.446	0.259	35.8%	23.9%	16.8%	41.8%	3B	$3,700	3B	$4,600	N/A	N/A
3	Anthony Rizzo	LEFT	0.415	0.385	0.318	34.1%	11.5%	13.0%	43.8%	1B	$4,100	1B	$4,700	N/A	N/A
4	Willson Contreras	RIGHT	0.405	0.389	0.268	34.2%	13.9%	16.5%	55.3%	C	$3,400	C	$4,600	N/A	N/A
5	Albert Almora	RIGHT	0.403	0.358	0.183	35.6%	13.4%	14.6%	44.8%	OF	$2,100	OF	$3,000	N/A	N/A
6	Jason Heyward	LEFT	0.294	0.254	0.125	27.9%	4.8%	22.6%	45.9%	OF	$3,000	OF	$3,300	N/A	N/A
7	Ian Happ	SWITCH	0.336	0.254	0.203	20.0%	4.4%	29.4%	38.6%	OF	$2,800	2B/OF	$4,300	N/A	N/A
8	Javier Baez	RIGHT	0.363	0.315	0.301	38.3%	6.7%	26.7%	50.0%	2B	$2,900	2B/SS	$3,900	N/A	N/A
9	Kyle Hendricks	RIGHT	0.125	0.080	0.000	50.0%	0.0%	71.4%	50.0%	P	$8,000	P	$8,600	N/A	N/A

Elite Plays – None

Secondary Plays – Kris Bryant

Stackability – ORANGE

San Francisco

Even in these smaller slates, the Giants lack fantasy appeal. They play in a terrible ballpark and they are ranked dead last in team wOBA against right-handed pitching. Nothing is standing out in a matchup against Kyle Hendricks, who has held both left and right-handed hitters under a .290 xwOBA in the last two seasons.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

#	Player	Bats	wOBA	xwOBA	ISO	HC%	BB%	K%	GB%	FD Pos.	FD Sal.	DK Pos.	DK Sal.	FDRFT Pos.	FDRFT Sal.
1	Denard Span	LEFT	0.346	0.337	0.188	26.4%	6.1%	11.8%	38.2%	OF	$2,700	OF	$3,200	N/A	N/A
2	Joe Panik	LEFT	0.310	0.300	0.149	27.0%	7.8%	10.2%	41.9%	2B	$2,700	2B	$3,100	N/A	N/A
3	Buster Posey	RIGHT	0.353	0.370	0.122	31.0%	10.2%	11.3%	43.5%	C	$3,200	1B/C	$3,400	N/A	N/A
4	Hunter Pence	RIGHT	0.272	0.269	0.097	28.0%	4.7%	22.5%	61.0%	OF	$3,200	OF	$3,600	N/A	N/A
5	Pablo Sandoval	SWITCH	0.300	0.346	0.183	44.4%	7.8%	22.2%	47.6%	3B	$2,000	3B	$3,300	N/A	N/A
6	Brandon Crawford	LEFT	0.261	0.293	0.129	32.7%	6.1%	21.4%	50.5%	SS	$2,600	SS	$3,000	N/A	N/A
7	Ryder Jones	LEFT	0.128	0.181	0.000	10.0%	3.8%	19.2%	30.0%	1B	$2,300	1B/3B	$2,000	N/A	N/A
8	Jarrett Parker	LEFT	0.306	0.282	0.185	31.3%	6.9%	37.9%	50.0%	OF	$2,400	OF	$3,200	N/A	N/A
9	Madison Bumgarner	LEFT	0.296	0.338	0.273	12.5%	8.3%	25.0%	37.5%	P	$10,200	P	$12,600	N/A	N/A

MLB Grind Down: Wednesday, August 9th

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Stackability Rating System:

Colorado at Cleveland – 12:10 PM ET

Pitcher Grind Down

Batter Grind Down

Colorado

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

Elite Plays – Charlie Blackmon (on non-Bauer lineups)

Secondary Plays – Nolan Arenado, Gerardo Parra

Stackability – ORANGE

Cleveland

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

Elite Plays – Jose Ramirez

Secondary Plays – Jason Kipnis, Francisco Lindor, Edwin Encarnacion, Carlos Santana

Stackability – YELLOW

Texas at NY Mets – 12:10 PM ET

Pitcher Grind Down

Batter Grind Down

Texas

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

Elite Plays – Shin-Soo Choo, Adrian Beltre

Secondary Plays – Elvis Andrus, Nomar Mazara, Rougned Odor, Joey Gallo

Stackability – YELLOW

NY Mets

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. LH Pitching)

Elite Plays – Yoenis Cespedes

Secondary Plays – Michael Conforto, Asdrubal Cabrera, Wilmer Flores, Travis d’Arnaud

Stackability – YELLOW

Seattle at Oakland – 3:35 PM ET

Pitcher Grind Down

Batter Grind Down

Seattle

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

Elite Plays – None

Secondary Plays – Jean Segura, Yonder Alonso, Robinson Cano, Nelson Cruz, Kyle Seager

Stackability – YELLOW

Oakland

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

Elite Plays – Marcus Semien, Jed Lowrie, Khris Davis

Secondary Plays – Matt Joyce, Matt Chapman, Matt Olson

Stackability – YELLOW / GREEN

Baltimore at LA Angels – 3:37 PM ET

Pitcher Grind Down

Batter Grind Down

Baltimore

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

Elite Plays – None

Secondary Plays – Adam Jones, Manny Machado, Jonathan Schoop, Mark Trumbo, Chris Davis

Stackability – YELLOW

LA Angels

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

Elite Plays – Mike Trout (GPP)

Secondary Plays – Mike Trout (Cash)

Stackability – ORANGE

Chicago Cubs at San Francisco – 3:45 PM ET

Pitcher Grind Down

Batter Grind Down

Chicago Cubs

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. LH Pitching)

Elite Plays – None

Secondary Plays – Kris Bryant

Stackability – ORANGE

San Francisco

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

Elite Plays – None

Secondary Plays – None

Stackability – RED

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