MLB Grind Down: Wednesday, July 5th

by Derek Farnsworth (Notorious) Last Updated 2017-07-06 01:07:23

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The RotoGrinders MLB Grind Down will give you an in-depth analysis into the upcoming MLB schedule. This article will break down the numbers for every single game and give you analysis on which trends you can exploit. While matchups are a major factor in daily fantasy baseball, there are plenty of other factors to consider such as injuries, weather, and salaries.

The analysis should point you in the right direction, but it is still up to you to decipher the information and make your own selections. No sport has more variance than baseball. The best choice is not always the right choice but following the trends will win you money over time.

Note: As always, if you want to try a new DFS site, be sure to click through a RotoGrinders link and use our DraftKings promo code, FanDuel promo code, and FantasyDraft promo code to receive the best perks in the industry.

Stackability Rating System:

GREEN – A viable full stack in cash games and GPPs.
YELLOW – A viable mini-stack in cash games and full stack in GPPs.
ORANGE – A viable stack in large field GPPs.
RED – Not a recommended stack for cash games or GPPs.

Toronto at NY Yankees – 1:05 PM ET

Stats	wOBA	xwOBA	HC%	BB%	K%	GB%	Stats	wOBA	xwOBA	HC%	BB%	K%	GB%
Toronto								NY Yankees
			Marco Estrada							Michael Pineda
			RIGHT							RIGHT
			Vegas Moneyline							Vegas Over/Under
			NYY-180							9.0
SP vs. Left (2016-17)	0.283	0.277	27.9%	8.3%	24.3%	35.3%	SP vs. Left (2016-17)	0.330	0.304	34.1%	8.0%	27.5%	46.9%
SP vs. Right (2016-17)	0.319	0.323	33.7%	9.2%	23.1%	31.0%	SP vs. Right (2016-17)	0.323	0.298	30.3%	5.0%	24.8%	48.6%

Pitcher Grind Down

	Stats	Starts	SIERA	ERA	K%	BB%	GB%	HC%	SC%
Marco Estrada
	FanDuel			DraftKings			FantasyDraft
	Salary:		$7,700	Salary:		$6,700	Salary:
	Salary Rank:		13 of 30	Salary Rank:		13 of 30	Salary Rank:		of 30
	2016	29	4.35	3.48	22.8%	9.0%	33.5%	31.3%	21.1%
	2017	17	4.14	4.86	25.1%	8.4%	32.5%	30.0%	18.4%

Most three game slates are fun for DFS purposes, but have little appeal to the casual fan. The three early games on the schedule today should draw some interest for all fans. We start with an American League East battle between the Blue Jays and Yankees. Estrada has a decent track record against New York, but he comes into the game in awful form. In his last three starts alone, he has walked a combined 15 batters. When you walk that many hitters, it doesn’t really matter who you are facing, the free passes are going to come back and haunt you. The form is a big concern here, as is a matchup against the Yankees, who are ranked second in team wOBA against right-handed pitching.

Quick Breakdown:Bad form and a bad matchup makes Estrada an easy fade in all formats.

	Stats	Starts	SIERA	ERA	K%	BB%	GB%	HC%	SC%
Michael Pineda
	FanDuel			DraftKings			FantasyDraft
	Salary:		$8,700	Salary:		$10,200	Salary:
	Salary Rank:		5 of 30	Salary Rank:		3 of 30	Salary Rank:		of 30
	2016	32	3.40	4.82	27.4%	7.0%	45.8%	32.7%	17.2%
	2017	16	3.64	4.05	23.2%	5.1%	51.6%	30.5%	20.1%

Pineda may be the most frustrating pitcher in all of DFS. He has all of the tools needed to be an above-average pitcher, but he can never seem to string it all together. Whether it’s a bad pitch here or there or a break that doesn’t go his way, it always seems to be something. With that said, he has an above-average strikeout rate, an above-average ground ball rate, and he gets to face a right-handed heavy Blue Jays’ lineup. Pineda is a sizable favorite here and has held the current roster of the Blue Jays’ to a .307 wOBA in 155 plate appearances.

Quick Breakdown:Given the upside and lack of pitching options in the early slate, Pineda is viable in all formats.

Batter Grind Down

Toronto

This game features a fairly high over/under of 9.5 runs, but on paper, Michael Pineda isn’t a pitcher that we want to pick on. He owns a 23% strikeout rate and a 52% ground ball rate, which is a lethal combination for the opposing offense. Not only that, but Pineda has held both left and right-handed hitters under a .305 xwOBA in the last two seasons. I wouldn’t rule out a few of the Blue Jays’ hitters as tournament fliers, but I’m higher on Pineda than I am on Toronto’s offense.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

#	Player	Bats	wOBA	xwOBA	ISO	HC%	BB%	K%	GB%	FD Pos.	FD Sal.	DK Pos.	DK Sal.	FDRFT Pos.	FDRFT Sal.
1	Jose Bautista	RIGHT	0.358	0.362	0.214	38.0%	15.8%	21.6%	36.1%	OF	$3,800	OF	$4,000	N/A	N/A
2	Russell Martin	RIGHT	0.331	0.327	0.167	30.4%	12.8%	25.9%	49.0%	C	$2,400	C	$2,800	N/A	N/A
3	Justin Smoak	SWITCH	0.348	0.370	0.244	40.4%	11.3%	29.7%	30.2%	1B	$3,400	1B	$4,800	N/A	N/A
4	Kendrys Morales	SWITCH	0.313	0.385	0.194	40.7%	8.1%	20.4%	48.9%	1B	$3,000	1B	$3,400	N/A	N/A
5	Troy Tulowitzki	RIGHT	0.322	0.344	0.184	33.3%	7.4%	17.2%	41.3%	SS	$2,800	SS	$3,300	N/A	N/A
6	Steve Pearce	RIGHT	0.340	0.342	0.160	30.9%	8.7%	17.8%	45.9%	OF	$2,900	OF	$3,400	N/A	N/A
7	Miguel Montero	LEFT	0.321	0.309	0.166	31.7%	13.7%	21.0%	45.5%	C	$2,000	C	$3,100	N/A	N/A
8	Kevin Pillar	RIGHT	0.283	0.294	0.111	26.7%	5.1%	15.7%	47.4%	OF	$2,500	OF	$3,100	N/A	N/A
9	Ryan Goins	LEFT	0.265	0.272	0.146	30.3%	7.1%	21.4%	47.3%	2B	$2,000	2B/SS	$2,400	N/A	N/A

Elite Plays – None

Secondary Plays – Jose Bautista, Josh Donaldson, Kendrys Morales

Stackability – ORANGE

NY Yankees

The Yankees may not be at full strength, but they are catching Marco Estrada at an opportune time. In his last three starts, Estrada has given up 15 walks and 11 earned runs. He has blowup potential when his command is off and we know the Yankees have plenty of firepower throughout their lineup. They are a patient offense at the plate and one of the best in baseball against right-handed pitching. A stack is certainly viable here and it’s worth noting that Gary Sanchez, Didi Gregorius, and Chase Headley all have at least two home runs against Estrada in the past.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

#	Player	Bats	wOBA	xwOBA	ISO	HC%	BB%	K%	GB%	FD Pos.	FD Sal.	DK Pos.	DK Sal.	FDRFT Pos.	FDRFT Sal.
1	Brett Gardner	LEFT	0.347	0.327	0.153	30.9%	12.1%	17.1%	47.3%	OF	$3,500	OF	$4,100	N/A	N/A
2	Aaron Judge	RIGHT	0.420	0.414	0.323	49.2%	13.5%	32.6%	37.6%	OF	$4,800	OF	$5,500	N/A	N/A
3	Gary Sanchez	RIGHT	0.427	0.386	0.304	38.8%	8.6%	22.6%	48.2%	C	$3,700	C	$4,600	N/A	N/A
4	Didi Gregorius	LEFT	0.318	0.263	0.189	24.7%	2.9%	15.1%	41.6%	SS	$3,200	SS	$4,400	N/A	N/A
5	Chase Headley	SWITCH	0.328	0.325	0.149	31.3%	12.1%	25.0%	44.1%	3B	$2,900	3B	$3,700	N/A	N/A
6	Jacoby Ellsbury	LEFT	0.331	0.317	0.133	26.4%	9.8%	12.3%	48.1%	OF	$3,300	OF	$3,800	N/A	N/A
7			1.016		0.667	66.7%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	P	$8,400	P	$8,300	P	$8,000
8	Austin Romine	RIGHT	0.268	0.290	0.086	22.1%	4.8%	21.2%	42.8%	C	$2,200	C	$2,900	N/A	N/A
9	Tyler Wade	LEFT	0.318	0.368	0.111	40.0%	18.2%	36.4%	20.0%	OF	$2,300	SS	$2,400	N/A	N/A

Elite Plays – Brett Gardner, Aaron Judge, Gary Sanchez, Didi Gregorius

Secondary Plays – Jacoby Ellsbury, Chase Headley, Tyler Wade

Stackability – YELLOW / GREEN

Tampa Bay at Chicago Cubs – 2:20 PM ET

Stats	wOBA	xwOBA	HC%	BB%	K%	GB%	Stats	wOBA	xwOBA	HC%	BB%	K%	GB%
Tampa Bay								Chicago Cubs
			Blake Snell							John Lackey
			LEFT							RIGHT
			Vegas Moneyline							Vegas Over/Under
			CHC-155							9.5
SP vs. Left (2016-17)	0.291	0.292	31.5%	12.4%	27.3%	54.9%	SP vs. Left (2016-17)	0.329	0.350	35.0%	9.4%	19.4%	45.5%
SP vs. Right (2016-17)	0.342	0.332	33.2%	13.4%	21.3%	34.2%	SP vs. Right (2016-17)	0.288	0.308	35.6%	5.4%	25.5%	38.7%

Pitcher Grind Down

	Stats	Starts	SIERA	ERA	K%	BB%	GB%	HC%	SC%
Blake Snell
	FanDuel			DraftKings			FantasyDraft
	Salary:		$6,600	Salary:		$6,200	Salary:
	Salary Rank:		24 of 30	Salary Rank:		16 of 30	Salary Rank:		of 30
	2016	19	4.53	3.54	24.4%	12.7%	36.5%	31.4%	22.2%
	2017	9	5.54	5.36	18.8%	14.1%	40.6%	35.7%	17.5%

Snell was sent down to the minors to work on his command and potentially some mechanical issues. After being called back up, the reports were nothing but positive. He then came out and walked five batters in his first start back. The issue with Snell is always his command. He walks too many batters and doesn’t have a high ground ball rate, so he doesn’t induce many double play balls. His matchup against the Cubs is far from ideal, as Chicago is ranked third in team wOBA against left-handed pitching.

Quick Breakdown:Until we see these “improvements” from Snell, I will be avoiding him in all formats.

	Stats	Starts	SIERA	ERA	K%	BB%	GB%	HC%	SC%
John Lackey
	FanDuel			DraftKings			FantasyDraft
	Salary:		$8,300	Salary:		$5,600	Salary:
	Salary Rank:		10 of 30	Salary Rank:		20 of 30	Salary Rank:		of 30
	2016	29	3.83	3.35	24.1%	7.1%	41.0%	34.4%	16.2%
	2017	16	4.42	5.24	20.5%	7.4%	43.0%	37.1%	15.0%

Lackey’s fountain of youth seems to be drying up. After a career high strikeout rate in 2016, he has taken a step back this year. He currently owns a 4.42 SIERA (5.24 ERA) with an average strikeout rate and a high hard contact rate. There are plenty of red flags if you are looking to fade Lackey in this slate. However, it’s rare that we see a pitcher that is favored and that has good strikeout potential listed at a bargain price of $5,600 on DraftKings. The Rays may have a potent offense, but they also have the second highest strikeout rate against right-handed pitching.

Quick Breakdown:Lackey is viable as an SP2 on DraftKings. The risk is there, but so is the reward in a matchup against the strikeout-prone Rays.

Batter Grind Down

Tampa Bay

Even though I will have some shares of John Lackey today, that doesn’t mean that I will be fading the Rays completely. A hedge stack is a decent strategy, as we have seen Lackey get shelled on a number of occasions. In terms of splits, John Lackey has allowed a .350 xwOBA and a 35% hard contact rate to left-handed hitters in the last two seasons. Mallex Smith, Corey Dickerson, and Logan Morrison are all viable one-off targets and I actually don’t mind the mini three-man stack.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

#	Player	Bats	wOBA	xwOBA	ISO	HC%	BB%	K%	GB%	FD Pos.	FD Sal.	DK Pos.	DK Sal.	FDRFT Pos.	FDRFT Sal.
1	Mallex Smith	LEFT	0.347	0.266	0.128	21.4%	10.8%	19.3%	57.1%	OF	$2,600	OF	$3,200	N/A	N/A
2	Corey Dickerson	LEFT	0.355	0.323	0.262	33.0%	6.5%	21.6%	35.0%	OF	$3,800	OF	$3,900	N/A	N/A
3	Evan Longoria	RIGHT	0.353	0.349	0.234	35.6%	5.9%	19.3%	36.3%	3B	$3,100	3B	$3,600	N/A	N/A
4	Logan Morrison	LEFT	0.351	0.377	0.256	40.9%	11.3%	21.9%	38.8%	1B	$3,800	1B	$4,700	N/A	N/A
5	Steve Souza	RIGHT	0.350	0.334	0.217	33.5%	9.9%	31.0%	40.5%	OF	$3,400	OF	$4,200	N/A	N/A
6	Tim Beckham	RIGHT	0.321	0.304	0.189	44.6%	5.0%	31.4%	44.0%	SS	$3,100	SS	$3,100	N/A	N/A
7	Wilson Ramos	RIGHT	0.346	0.345	0.168	36.1%	6.3%	16.4%	54.1%	C	$2,600	C	$3,400	N/A	N/A
8	Adeiny Hechavarria	RIGHT	0.261	0.303	0.069	29.9%	4.8%	12.3%	47.8%	SS	$2,000	SS	$2,500	N/A	N/A
9	Blake Snell	LEFT	0.277	0.296	0.000	0.0%	40.0%	20.0%	100.0%	P	$6,600	P	$6,200	N/A	N/A

Elite Plays – Mallex Smith

Secondary Plays – Corey Dickerson, Evan Longoria, Logan Morrison

Stackability – YELLOW

Chicago Cubs

The Cubs are one of the best offenses in baseball against left-handed pitching. They are potentially licking their chops heading into tomorrow’s matchup against Blake Snell, who has one of the highest walk rates of any starting pitcher. In terms of splits, Snell is significantly worse against right-handed hitters, allowing a .332 xwOBA and a 33% hard contact in the last two seasons. All of the righties (and Anthony Rizzo) are viable targets.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. LH Pitching)

#	Player	Bats	wOBA	xwOBA	ISO	HC%	BB%	K%	GB%	FD Pos.	FD Sal.	DK Pos.	DK Sal.	FDRFT Pos.	FDRFT Sal.
1	Willson Contreras	RIGHT	0.358	0.336	0.199	30.8%	8.0%	18.5%	57.4%	C	$3,300	C	$3,600	N/A	N/A
2	Kris Bryant	RIGHT	0.438	0.440	0.324	39.2%	17.8%	18.9%	32.5%	3B	$3,800	3B	$3,900	N/A	N/A
3	Anthony Rizzo	LEFT	0.381	0.358	0.247	27.2%	10.0%	11.6%	44.3%	1B	$4,200	1B	$4,700	N/A	N/A
4	Ben Zobrist	SWITCH	0.342	0.314	0.162	31.8%	12.0%	18.4%	54.0%	OF	$2,700	2B/OF	$3,500	N/A	N/A
5	Ian Happ	SWITCH	0.375	0.267	0.270	20.0%	5.0%	32.5%	29.2%	OF	$3,500	2B/OF	$3,900	N/A	N/A
6	Albert Almora	RIGHT	0.396	0.342	0.237	28.4%	11.4%	11.4%	47.5%	OF	$2,100	OF	$2,600	N/A	N/A
7	Javier Baez	RIGHT	0.350	0.317	0.200	32.2%	7.8%	21.5%	43.9%	2B	$2,600	2B/SS	$3,200	N/A	N/A
8	Addison Russell	RIGHT	0.338	0.334	0.213	29.2%	12.6%	22.9%	39.2%	SS	$2,800	SS	$3,000	N/A	N/A
9	John Lackey	RIGHT	0.070	0.163	0.000	25.0%	0.0%	38.5%	40.0%	P	$8,300	P	$5,600	N/A	N/A

Elite Plays – Kris Bryant, Willson Contreras

Secondary Plays – Anthony Rizzo, Ian Happ, Willson Contreras

Stackability –

Chicago White Sox at Oakland – 3:35 PM ET

Stats	wOBA	xwOBA	HC%	BB%	K%	GB%	Stats	wOBA	xwOBA	HC%	BB%	K%	GB%
Chicago White Sox								Oakland
			Mike Pelfrey							Sonny Gray
			RIGHT							RIGHT
			Vegas Moneyline							Vegas Over/Under
			OAK-180							9.0
SP vs. Left (2016-17)	0.374	0.391	35.7%	10.1%	12.9%	42.8%	SP vs. Left (2016-17)	0.311	0.316	28.2%	7.2%	19.7%	53.9%
SP vs. Right (2016-17)	0.332	0.325	24.8%	7.6%	11.7%	59.0%	SP vs. Right (2016-17)	0.347	0.328	36.8%	8.6%	20.1%	55.3%

Pitcher Grind Down

	Stats	Starts	SIERA	ERA	K%	BB%	GB%	HC%	SC%
Mike Pelfrey
	FanDuel			DraftKings			FantasyDraft
	Salary:		$6,000	Salary:		$5,200	Salary:
	Salary Rank:		29 of 30	Salary Rank:		24 of 30	Salary Rank:		of 30
	2016	22	5.25	5.07	10.4%	8.5%	52.2%	31.2%	20.1%
	2017	13	5.35	4.13	14.5%	9.9%	48.6%	27.8%	24.9%

Pelfrey is never in play when it comes to DFS. The debate surrounding him is whether or not he is a viable option to stack against. Some argue that his ground ball rate, hard contact rate, and ability to pitch out of jams makes him a bad pitcher to stack against. Others argue that he’s a gas can that has some serious regression coming. I see both sides of the argument and certainly like to target hitters against Pelfrey, but more often than not, I end up picking my spots instead of completely stacking against him.

Quick Breakdown:Pelfrey is an easy fade in all formats.

	Stats	Starts	SIERA	ERA	K%	BB%	GB%	HC%	SC%
Sonny Gray
	FanDuel			DraftKings			FantasyDraft
	Salary:		$8,600	Salary:		$9,000	Salary:
	Salary Rank:		7 of 30	Salary Rank:		6 of 30	Salary Rank:		of 30
	2016	22	4.32	5.69	18.2%	8.1%	53.9%	33.6%	16.1%
	2017	12	3.78	4.09	22.9%	7.6%	55.9%	30.6%	16.3%

Gray is my favorite pitcher in the early slate. He is pitching in the best ballpark, he has the best matchup, and he’s arguably in the best form. In 12 starts this season, he has a 3.78 SIERA with a strikeout rate of 23% and a ground ball rate of 56%. If you’ve ever read the Grind Down, then you know how I feel about pitchers with elite ground ball rates and an above-average strikeout rate. Meanwhile, the White Sox are ranked 27th in team wOBA and 20th in strikeout rate against right-handed pitching.

Quick Breakdown:Gray has shown more upside this season. He’s an elite play in all formats.

Batter Grind Down

Chicago White Sox

The White Sox are always on my radar when facing a left-handed pitcher and rarely on my radar when facing a right-handed pitcher. Sonny Gray has been in solid form this season and the White Sox have to face him on the road in the pitcher-friendly Oakland Alameda Coliseum. Gray does have reverse splits (.328 xwOBA and a 37% hard contact rate to righties), but Jose Abreu and Avisail Garcia are ground ball hitters that fare much better against fly ball pitchers.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

#	Player	Bats	wOBA	xwOBA	ISO	HC%	BB%	K%	GB%	FD Pos.	FD Sal.	DK Pos.	DK Sal.	FDRFT Pos.	FDRFT Sal.
1	Adam Engel	RIGHT	0.309	0.276	0.158	42.9%	2.4%	28.6%	48.0%	OF	$2,700	OF	$3,400	N/A	N/A
2	Melky Cabrera	SWITCH	0.326	0.325	0.132	28.7%	7.6%	10.1%	47.0%	OF	$3,400	OF	$3,900	N/A	N/A
3	Jose Abreu	RIGHT	0.341	0.346	0.173	33.9%	5.9%	17.3%	46.1%	1B	$3,600	1B	$4,100	N/A	N/A
4	Avisail Garcia	RIGHT	0.321	0.328	0.161	32.4%	5.9%	24.0%	53.2%	OF	$2,800	OF	$2,700	N/A	N/A
5	Todd Frazier	RIGHT	0.322	0.324	0.224	31.1%	10.6%	22.8%	39.1%	3B	$3,500	3B	$4,200	N/A	N/A
6	Matt Davidson	RIGHT	0.322	0.294	0.284	47.5%	3.7%	46.6%	33.8%	3B	$2,500	1B/3B	$3,200	N/A	N/A
7	Tim Anderson	RIGHT	0.282	0.268	0.143	30.0%	3.3%	27.2%	51.5%	SS	$2,500	SS	$3,000	N/A	N/A
8	Omar Narvaez	LEFT	0.271	0.294	0.027	13.6%	10.1%	12.0%	43.5%	C	$2,300	C	$2,000	N/A	N/A
9	Yolmer Sanchez	SWITCH	0.308	0.286	0.144	24.2%	5.8%	22.5%	41.5%	2B	$2,700	2B	$3,100	N/A	N/A

Elite Plays – None

Secondary Plays – None

Stackability – RED

Oakland

The A’s are basically the perfect team to stack against a pitcher like Mike Pelfrey. In order to succeed, Pelfrey needs to induce a lot of ground balls and soft contact. In case you didn’t know, the A’s have the highest fly-ball rate of any team in baseball against right-handed pitching (43%). When you get the ball in the air against Pelfrey, good things tend to happen. The A’s are a tremendous stack option in the early slate and their ownership shouldn’t be out of control.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

#	Player	Bats	wOBA	xwOBA	ISO	HC%	BB%	K%	GB%	FD Pos.	FD Sal.	DK Pos.	DK Sal.	FDRFT Pos.	FDRFT Sal.
1	Matt Joyce	LEFT	0.353	0.366	0.217	36.2%	17.6%	22.4%	38.7%	OF	$2,700	OF	$3,000	N/A	N/A
2	Franklin Barreto	RIGHT	0.250	0.277	0.136	46.2%	8.3%	37.5%	38.5%	SS	$2,800	SS	$4,200	N/A	N/A
3	Jed Lowrie	SWITCH	0.324	0.331	0.137	33.0%	8.9%	16.6%	34.8%	2B	$2,500	2B	$3,600	N/A	N/A
4	Khris Davis	RIGHT	0.356	0.368	0.286	40.4%	7.6%	29.4%	42.3%	OF	$4,000	OF	$4,600	N/A	N/A
5	Yonder Alonso	LEFT	0.333	0.361	0.162	34.3%	10.4%	17.2%	38.4%	1B	$3,100	1B	$3,900	N/A	N/A
6	Ryon Healy	RIGHT	0.337	0.333	0.215	34.7%	4.2%	25.6%	41.0%	3B	$3,300	1B/3B	$3,700	N/A	N/A
7	Josh Phegley	RIGHT	0.268	0.294	0.130	30.0%	5.1%	16.1%	37.8%	C	$2,100	C	$2,200	N/A	N/A
8	Jaycob Brugman	LEFT	0.279	0.262	0.048	20.0%	11.3%	25.4%	48.9%	OF	$2,300	OF	$3,500	N/A	N/A
9	Rajai Davis	RIGHT	0.290	0.267	0.129	25.6%	6.3%	20.1%	47.0%	OF	$2,500	OF	$3,500	N/A	N/A

Elite Plays – Jed Lowrie, Khris Davis, Yonder Alonso

Secondary Plays – Matt Joyce, Franklin Barreto, Ryon Healy

Stackability – YELLOW / GREEN

Pittsburgh at Philadelphia – 7:05 PM ET

Stats	wOBA	xwOBA	HC%	BB%	K%	GB%	Stats	wOBA	xwOBA	HC%	BB%	K%	GB%
Pittsburgh								Philadelphia
			Gerrit Cole							Ben Lively
			RIGHT							RIGHT
			Vegas Moneyline							Vegas Over/Under
			PIT-140							9.0
SP vs. Left (2016-17)	0.373	0.340	39.0%	6.0%	21.6%	40.1%	SP vs. Left (2016-17)	0.354	0.365	32.8%	10.1%	6.3%	46.8%
SP vs. Right (2016-17)	0.286	0.304	25.3%	7.2%	17.9%	51.3%	SP vs. Right (2016-17)	0.331	0.288	32.4%	4.8%	9.6%	34.3%

Pitcher Grind Down

	Stats	Starts	SIERA	ERA	K%	BB%	GB%	HC%	SC%
Gerrit Cole
	FanDuel			DraftKings			FantasyDraft
	Salary:		$8,600	Salary:		$8,700	Salary:		$16,800
	Salary Rank:		7 of 30	Salary Rank:		7 of 30	Salary Rank:		5 of 30
	2016	21	4.24	3.88	19.4%	7.1%	45.6%	30.1%	21.3%
	2017	17	4.22	4.51	20.0%	6.1%	46.4%	33.8%	22.4%

Cole is a pitcher that has more talent than his statistics show, but eventually we have to trust the numbers. He has an average strikeout rate, a SIERA above 4.00, and he continues to struggle against left-handed hitters. It seems like the DFS community wants him to be great, but that just hasn’t been the case. I have a hard time paying a premium for pitchers with mediocre numbers and I’m more than willing to fade Cole if he’s going to be popular tonight. The matchup against the Phillies looks good on paper, but he has to face them in the hitter-friendly Citizens Bank Park.

Quick Breakdown: Cole is a calculated fade for me in this slate. I will be taking my shots elsewhere.

	Stats	Starts	SIERA	ERA	K%	BB%	GB%	HC%	SC%
Ben Lively
	FanDuel			DraftKings			FantasyDraft
	Salary:		$6,700	Salary:		$5,300	Salary:		$10,400
	Salary Rank:		22 of 30	Salary Rank:		23 of 30	Salary Rank:		18 of 30

	2017	6	6.13	3.72	8.0%	7.4%	40.2%	32.6%	20.7%

Lively has a strikeout rate of 8% in his first six major league starts. I could end the analysis there, but I’ll continue. To make matters worse, Lively’s SIERA is a full two and a half runs higher than his ERA, which suggests some serious regression moving forward. He is an easy fade tonight against the Pirates, who have one of the lowest strikeout rates of any offense against right-handed pitching.

Quick Breakdown: Avoid Lively in all formats.

Batter Grind Down

Pittsburgh

The Pirates see a favorable ballpark shift playing in Philadelphia and they draw an exploitable matchup against rookie Ben Lively. The sample size is small (six starts), but Lively has allowed a .365 xwOBA to left-handed hitters. He also has a strikeout rate of 8% and some serious regression coming his way. The Pirates are a sneaky offense to target in tournaments. While I probably won’t be stacking them as a whole, you can use a few different batters as one-off targets and potentially even as mini-stacks.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

#	Player	Bats	wOBA	xwOBA	ISO	HC%	BB%	K%	GB%	FD Pos.	FD Sal.	DK Pos.	DK Sal.	FDRFT Pos.	FDRFT Sal.
1	Adam Frazier	LEFT	0.324	0.331	0.126	31.5%	8.9%	14.3%	45.7%	OF	$2,900	OF	$3,800	IF/OF	$7,600
2	Josh Harrison	RIGHT	0.311	0.292	0.110	28.2%	4.4%	15.0%	42.6%	2B	$2,900	2B/3B	$3,700	2B	$7,200
3	Andrew McCutchen	RIGHT	0.333	0.342	0.170	34.9%	9.9%	20.5%	37.1%	OF	$3,700	OF	$4,500	RF	$8,700
4	Josh Bell	SWITCH	0.342	0.353	0.197	33.2%	12.4%	17.1%	51.2%	1B	$2,800	1B	$3,700	IF/OF	$7,200
5	David Freese	RIGHT	0.316	0.323	0.127	31.4%	9.3%	26.1%	58.6%	3B	$2,600	3B	$3,000	3B	$6,000
6	Gregory Polanco	LEFT	0.325	0.337	0.190	32.9%	8.9%	16.6%	39.6%	OF	$2,900	OF	$3,600	RF	$7,200
7	Francisco Cervelli	RIGHT	0.312	0.325	0.091	28.4%	13.2%	18.8%	52.4%	C	$2,600	C	$2,900	C	$5,700
8	Jordy Mercer	RIGHT	0.308	0.297	0.119	25.7%	8.4%	14.7%	49.1%	SS	$2,500	SS	$3,600	SS	$7,200
9	Gerrit Cole	RIGHT	0.143	0.142	0.000	5.6%	1.6%	39.3%	77.8%	P	$8,600	P	$8,700	P	$16,800

Elite Plays – None

Secondary Plays – Adam Frazier, Andrew McCutchen, Josh Bell, Gregory Polanco

Stackability – YELLOW

Philadelphia

This is a situation where I will probably be avoiding both the pitcher (Gerrit Cole) and the offense facing him (Phillies). I don’t love Cole’s price or the ballpark and at the same time, I have little to no confidence in the Phillies’ offense. On the season, they are ranked 29th in team wOBA against right-handed pitching. I will note that Cole is considerably worse against left-handed hitters, allowing a .340 xwOBA and a 39% hard contact over the course of the last two seasons.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

#	Player	Bats	wOBA	xwOBA	ISO	HC%	BB%	K%	GB%	FD Pos.	FD Sal.	DK Pos.	DK Sal.	FDRFT Pos.	FDRFT Sal.
1	Odubel Herrera	LEFT	0.331	0.307	0.151	29.6%	8.2%	21.1%	43.1%	OF	$2,400	OF	$2,500	IF/OF	$4,800
2	Freddy Galvis	SWITCH	0.301	0.276	0.170	28.4%	5.7%	21.0%	40.2%	SS	$2,600	SS	$3,400	SS	$6,800
3	Aaron Altherr	RIGHT	0.314	0.297	0.149	33.8%	8.9%	31.0%	45.5%	OF	$3,200	OF	$4,100	LF	$8,000
4	Tommy Joseph	RIGHT	0.324	0.325	0.209	38.6%	5.5%	22.9%	42.3%	1B	$3,200	1B	$4,000	1B	$7,800
5	Maikel Franco	RIGHT	0.285	0.315	0.142	28.2%	6.6%	16.2%	46.4%	3B	$3,100	3B	$3,300	3B	$6,600
6	Nick Williams	LEFT	0.396	0.380	0.000	60.0%	12.5%	12.5%	40.0%	OF	$2,400	OF	$3,100	LF	$6,000
7	Ty Kelly	SWITCH	0.277	0.286	0.153	28.8%	9.6%	19.3%	41.4%	2B	$2,200	3B/OF	$2,300	IF/OF	$4,500
8	Cameron Rupp	RIGHT	0.282	0.301	0.154	31.7%	6.2%	29.6%	48.1%	C	$2,100	C	$2,500	C	$4,800
9	Ben Lively	RIGHT	0.146	0.162	0.000	0.0%	0.0%	66.7%	50.0%	P	$6,700	P	$5,300	P	$10,400

Elite Plays – None

Secondary Plays – Odubel Herrera, Freddy Galvis, Nick Williams

Stackability – ORANGE

NY Mets at Washington – 7:05 PM ET

Stats	wOBA	xwOBA	HC%	BB%	K%	GB%	Stats	wOBA	xwOBA	HC%	BB%	K%	GB%
NY Mets								Washington
			Jacob deGrom							Tanner Roark
			RIGHT							RIGHT
			Vegas Moneyline							Vegas Over/Under
			WAS-100							8.5
SP vs. Left (2016-17)	0.286	0.306	32.2%	7.8%	23.5%	43.9%	SP vs. Left (2016-17)	0.312	0.332	30.6%	10.4%	17.9%	40.6%
SP vs. Right (2016-17)	0.302	0.295	33.7%	6.6%	28.3%	47.7%	SP vs. Right (2016-17)	0.285	0.301	22.0%	6.8%	21.2%	54.6%

Pitcher Grind Down

	Stats	Starts	SIERA	ERA	K%	BB%	GB%	HC%	SC%
Jacob deGrom
	FanDuel			DraftKings			FantasyDraft
	Salary:		$10,900	Salary:		$12,300	Salary:		$24,000
	Salary Rank:		1 of 30	Salary Rank:		1 of 30	Salary Rank:		1 of 30
	2016	24	3.66	3.04	23.7%	6.0%	45.6%	31.3%	19.0%
	2017	16	3.59	3.55	29.0%	8.8%	46.0%	35.6%	21.4%

DeGrom continues to pitch well this season. In 16 starts, he has a 3.59 SIERA with a strikeout rate of 29%. His velocity is up from a year ago and his swinging strike rate of 14.2% (career high) suggests that he can sustain this high of a k-rate moving forward. The issue tonight is obviously his matchup against the Nationals, who are a top three offense against right-handed pitching this season. While he doesn’t standout as a great cash game option, I will gladly target him in tournaments in a slate where he is going to be under-owned. He has as much upside as any pitcher in the slate and he has pitched well against the Nationals in his career – the current roster has a .279 wOBA against him in 120 plate appearances.

Quick Breakdown: DeGrom is an elite tournament play, but he is a bit overpriced for cash games.

	Stats	Starts	SIERA	ERA	K%	BB%	GB%	HC%	SC%
Tanner Roark
	FanDuel			DraftKings			FantasyDraft
	Salary:		$7,600	Salary:		$6,600	Salary:		$13,200
	Salary Rank:		14 of 30	Salary Rank:		14 of 30	Salary Rank:		11 of 30
	2016	33	4.32	2.83	20.1%	8.5%	48.7%	24.3%	23.1%
	2017	17	4.68	5.27	18.5%	8.6%	46.3%	29.7%	14.9%

Roark is not a pitcher that I use often in DFS. He basically needs a near-perfect matchup for me to consider him and he doesn’t have that going for him tonight against the Mets. On the season, New York is ranked ninth in team wOBA and fourth in strikeout rate against right-handed pitching. Not only is this an offense that hit righties well, but their lineup is full of left-handed hitters, which doesn’t bode well for Roark’s splits.

Quick Breakdown: There are better options in both cash games and tournaments.

Batter Grind Down

NY Mets

The Mets are the preferred offense to target in this game, even though has it as a pick ‘em. Over the last two seasons, Tanner Roark has allowed a .332 xwOBA and a 10% walk rate to left-handed hitters, which brings Curtis Granderson, Asdrubal Cabrera, Jay Bruce, and Lucas Duda into play. While I like the Mets’ offense a bit here, there are more attractive matchups in this slate. Rather than using New York as a stack, I’d rather sprinkle in their hitters as one-offs throughout my tournament lineups.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

#	Player	Bats	wOBA	xwOBA	ISO	HC%	BB%	K%	GB%	FD Pos.	FD Sal.	DK Pos.	DK Sal.	FDRFT Pos.	FDRFT Sal.
1	Curtis Granderson	LEFT	0.346	0.341	0.239	36.1%	13.3%	19.9%	33.5%	OF	$3,600	OF	$4,600	CF	$9,000
2	Asdrubal Cabrera	SWITCH	0.342	0.330	0.203	35.4%	7.6%	17.3%	38.7%	2B	$3,200	SS	$3,500	SS	$6,800
3	Yoenis Cespedes	RIGHT	0.354	0.353	0.235	38.6%	7.6%	19.6%	35.8%	OF	$3,300	OF	$3,900	LF	$7,800
4	Jay Bruce	LEFT	0.373	0.366	0.292	41.7%	9.4%	21.0%	35.8%	OF	$3,500	OF	$4,100	RF	$8,100
5	Lucas Duda	LEFT	0.369	0.390	0.259	41.4%	12.4%	21.9%	31.0%	1B	$3,300	1B	$4,200	1B	$8,100
6	T.J. Rivera	RIGHT	0.366	0.304	0.174	29.0%	3.5%	10.4%	38.1%	3B	$2,500	1B/3B	$3,500	3B	$6,900
7	Jose Reyes	SWITCH	0.274	0.269	0.129	26.1%	7.7%	16.1%	37.4%	SS	$2,400	3B/SS	$3,200	SS	$6,300
8	Travis d’Arnaud	RIGHT	0.281	0.297	0.131	33.0%	5.9%	16.7%	47.3%	C	$2,700	C	$3,500	C	$6,900
9	Jacob deGrom	RIGHT	0.265	0.247	0.079	27.8%	5.5%	20.5%	55.3%	P	$10,900	P	$12,300	P	$24,000

Elite Plays – None

Secondary Plays – Curtis Granderson, Asdrubal Cabrera, Jay Bruce, Lucas Duda

Stackability – YELLOW

Washington

For me, it doesn’t matter how good an offense is or what ballpark they play in. When a team faces an elite pitcher, I don’t see the need in targeting any of their hitters. There are 12 games on the schedule tonight and much better matchups than the one against Jacob deGrom, who has held both left and right-handed hitters under a .310 xwOBA. Bryce Harper has good BvP numbers against deGrom in the past, but I’d rather take an underweight stance on him compared to the field.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

#	Player	Bats	wOBA	xwOBA	ISO	HC%	BB%	K%	GB%	FD Pos.	FD Sal.	DK Pos.	DK Sal.	FDRFT Pos.	FDRFT Sal.
1	Michael Taylor	RIGHT	0.303	0.280	0.188	33.2%	5.5%	31.9%	41.0%	OF	$2,900	OF	$4,300	CF	$8,400
2	Ryan Raburn	RIGHT	0.292	0.277	0.156	39.5%	7.2%	36.6%	45.3%	OF	$2,100	OF	$3,000	LF	$6,000
3	Bryce Harper	LEFT	0.380	0.397	0.232	34.4%	18.5%	15.8%	39.7%	OF	$4,000	OF	$5,300	RF	$10,400
4	Ryan Zimmerman	RIGHT	0.326	0.337	0.188	36.3%	5.6%	22.7%	45.6%	1B	$3,100	1B	$4,400	1B	$8,700
5	Daniel Murphy	LEFT	0.411	0.396	0.252	38.2%	6.9%	8.5%	35.5%	2B	$3,400	2B	$4,800	2B	$9,200
6	Anthony Rendon	RIGHT	0.350	0.353	0.197	35.2%	10.0%	17.2%	36.7%	3B	$3,000	3B	$4,400	3B	$8,700
7	Matt Wieters	SWITCH	0.300	0.314	0.158	32.6%	6.2%	17.9%	37.6%	C	$2,600	C	$3,100	C	$6,000
8	Wilmer Difo	SWITCH	0.263	0.267	0.059	21.7%	9.8%	20.3%	55.6%	SS	$2,000	2B/SS	$2,500	2B	$4,800
9	Tanner Roark	RIGHT	0.164	0.169	0.014	10.0%	5.7%	25.3%	60.4%	P	$7,600	P	$6,600	P	$13,200

MLB Grind Down: Wednesday, July 5th

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Stackability Rating System:

Toronto at NY Yankees – 1:05 PM ET

Pitcher Grind Down

Batter Grind Down

Toronto

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

Stackability – ORANGE

NY Yankees

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

Stackability – YELLOW / GREEN

Tampa Bay at Chicago Cubs – 2:20 PM ET

Pitcher Grind Down

Batter Grind Down

Tampa Bay

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

Stackability – YELLOW

Chicago Cubs

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. LH Pitching)

Stackability –

Chicago White Sox at Oakland – 3:35 PM ET

Pitcher Grind Down

Batter Grind Down

Chicago White Sox

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

Elite Plays – None

Secondary Plays – None

Stackability – RED

Oakland

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

Stackability – YELLOW / GREEN

Pittsburgh at Philadelphia – 7:05 PM ET

Pitcher Grind Down

Batter Grind Down

Pittsburgh

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

Elite Plays – None

Secondary Plays – Adam Frazier, Andrew McCutchen, Josh Bell, Gregory Polanco

Stackability – YELLOW

Philadelphia

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

Elite Plays – None

Secondary Plays – Odubel Herrera, Freddy Galvis, Nick Williams

Stackability – ORANGE

NY Mets at Washington – 7:05 PM ET

Pitcher Grind Down

Batter Grind Down

NY Mets

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

Elite Plays – None

Secondary Plays – Curtis Granderson, Asdrubal Cabrera, Jay Bruce, Lucas Duda

Stackability – YELLOW

Washington

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

Elite Plays – None

Secondary Plays – Bryce Harper

Stackability – RED

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