MLB Grind Down: Wednesday, June 6th

by Derek Farnsworth (Notorious) Last Updated 2018-06-06 18:56:36

Jump to Page 1 2 3

The RotoGrinders MLB Grind Down will give you an in-depth analysis into the upcoming MLB schedule. This article will break down the numbers for every single game and give you analysis on which trends you can exploit. While matchups are a major factor in daily fantasy baseball, there are plenty of other factors to consider such as injuries, weather, and salaries.

The analysis should point you in the right direction, but it is still up to you to decipher the information and make your own selections. No sport has more variance than baseball. The best choice is not always the right choice but following the trends will win you money over time.

Note: As always, if you want to try a new DFS site, be sure to click through a RotoGrinders link and use our DraftKings promo code, FanDuel promo code, and FantasyDraft promo code to receive the best perks in the industry.

Stackability Rating System:

GREEN – A viable full stack in cash games and GPPs.
YELLOW – A viable mini-stack in cash games and full stack in GPPs.
ORANGE – A viable stack in large field GPPs.
RED – Not a recommended stack for cash games or GPPs.

Implied Run Totals

Ballpark Ratings

Tampa Bay at Washington – 1:05 PM ET

Stats	wOBA	xwOBA	HC%	BB%	K%	GB%	Stats	wOBA	xwOBA	HC%	BB%	K%	GB%
Tampa Bay								Washington
			Jonny Venters							Tanner Roark
			LEFT							RIGHT
			Vegas Moneyline							Vegas Over/Under
			WAS-170							8.0
SP vs. Left (2016-17)	0.120	0.222	30.8%	0.0%	23.5%	61.5%	SP vs. Left (2016-17)	0.311	0.314	30.3%	7.6%	22.6%	43.1%
SP vs. Right (2016-17)	0.175	0.263	31.3%	10.0%	10.0%	81.3%	SP vs. Right (2016-17)	0.255	0.334	28.3%	9.1%	18.9%	49.5%

Pitcher Grind Down

	Stats	Starts	SIERA	ERA	K%	BB%	GB%	HC%	SC%
Jonny Venters
	FanDuel			DraftKings			FantasyDraft
	Salary:		$5,500	Salary:		$4,000	Salary:
	Salary Rank:		28 of 30	Salary Rank:		28 of 30	Salary Rank:

	2018	0	2.89	0.87	16.2%	5.4%	72.4%	31.0%	17.2%
	L14	0	3.08	0.00	14.3%	0.0%	66.7%	50.0%	16.7%

It’s another bullpen start for the Rays today. Venters will technically get the nod, but he hasn’t thrown more than 30 pitches in any single outing in the last month of play. He’s likely only going to pitch one or two innings, which takes him out of consideration in all formats. These bullpen starts are frustrating, but we have no choice but to deal with them.

Quick Breakdown: Avoid Venters in all formats.

	Stats	Starts	SIERA	ERA	K%	BB%	GB%	HC%	SC%
Tanner Roark
	FanDuel			DraftKings			FantasyDraft
	Salary:		$8,000	Salary:		$8,300	Salary:
	Salary Rank:		10 of 28	Salary Rank:		11 of 28	Salary Rank:
	2017	30	4.31	4.67	21.4%	8.3%	48.2%	27.8%	16.7%
	2018	11	4.19	3.61	21.0%	8.3%	46.0%	29.4%	20.9%
	L14	2	5.17	4.50	13.6%	11.9%	57.1%	30.2%	14.0%

Roark has struggled a bit in his last two starts, but still owns a 4.19 SIERA with a strikeout rate of 21% on the season. He has an above-average ground ball rate and has always been good at limiting hard contact. He is pitching at home today against the Rays, who lose the use of the DH in this series. While we shouldn’t expect a repeat performance of Max Scherzer, Roark is certainly viable in all formats. The Rays’ projected lineup has a .304 xwOBA and a 23% strikeout rate against right-handed pitching.

Quick Breakdown: Roark is viable in all formats.

Batter Grind Down

Tampa Bay

The Rays have struggled against right-handed pitching this season, they are playing on the road in a pitcher-friendly ballpark, and they draw a mediocre matchup (at best) against Tanner Roark. On the season, he has held both left and right-handed hitters under a .335 xwOBA and under a 31% hard contact rate. There are better matchups to exploit in this early slate.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

#	Player	Bats	xwOBA	L15	ISO	HC%	BB%	K%	GB%	FD Pos.	FD Sal.	DK Pos.	DK Sal.	FDRFT Pos.	FDRFT Sal.
1	Mallex Smith	LEFT	0.270	0.229	0.087	25.2%	8.9%	18.5%	46.7%	OF	$2,300	OF	$3,000	N/A	N/A
2	C.J. Cron	RIGHT	0.342	0.347	0.188	34.4%	5.1%	22.5%	46.7%	1B	$2,900	1B	$3,700	N/A	N/A
3	Joey Wendle	LEFT	0.287	0.355	0.117	37.0%	6.7%	20.7%	50.0%	2B	$2,500	2B	$3,200	N/A	N/A
4	Wilson Ramos	RIGHT	0.332	0.432	0.157	40.9%	6.9%	21.5%	53.8%	C	$2,800	C	$3,600	N/A	N/A
5	Matt Duffy	RIGHT	0.328	0.360	0.108	33.0%	4.7%	18.6%	46.4%	3B	$2,300	3B	$2,800	N/A	N/A
6	Brad Miller	LEFT	0.345	0.278	0.186	41.3%	11.1%	29.6%	35.0%	1B	$2,400	1B	$3,000	N/A	N/A
7	Carlos Gomez	RIGHT	0.302	0.392	0.155	33.7%	7.0%	24.0%	38.6%	OF	$2,500	OF	$3,100	N/A	N/A
8	Johnny Field	RIGHT	0.228	0.272	0.190	31.1%	1.5%	28.4%	41.9%	OF	$2,100	OF	$3,300	N/A	N/A
9	Ryan Yarbrough	LEFT								P	$6,300	P	$5,600	N/A	N/A
	Team Averages		0.304	0.333	0.149	34.6%	6.5%	23.0%	44.9%

Elite Plays – None

Secondary Plays – None

Stackability – ORANGE

Washington

It doesn’t do us a lot of good to break down the Nationals’ matchup against Jonny Venters because some of the batters in this lineup won’t even face him. He’s not expected to pitch more than an inning or two, so the Nationals will end up facing a number of different relievers. Rather than focusing on splits, I will be targeting the hitters with good numbers against both left and right-handed pitching — Trea Turner, Bryce Harper, and Anthony Rendon.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. LH Pitching)

#	Player	Bats	xwOBA	L15	ISO	HC%	BB%	K%	GB%	FD Pos.	FD Sal.	DK Pos.	DK Sal.	FDRFT Pos.	FDRFT Sal.
1	Trea Turner	RIGHT	0.357	0.329	0.127	35.9%	13.7%	13.7%	49.0%	SS	$4,400	SS	$4,700	N/A	N/A
2	Bryce Harper	LEFT	0.383	0.327	0.203	39.2%	15.3%	23.5%	47.1%	OF	$4,900	OF	$5,500	N/A	N/A
3	Anthony Rendon	RIGHT	0.460	0.378	0.200	45.2%	14.6%	20.8%	16.1%	3B	$3,700	3B	$3,900	N/A	N/A
4	Mark Reynolds	RIGHT	0.371	0.349	0.200	22.2%	4.8%	9.5%	44.4%	1B	$3,100	1B	$4,000	N/A	N/A
5	Juan Soto	LEFT	0.396	0.378	0.438	46.7%	15.8%	5.3%	60.0%	OF	$3,400	OF	$3,900	N/A	N/A
6	Michael Taylor	RIGHT	0.255	0.319	0.217	44.4%	4.7%	39.1%	57.1%	OF	$3,100	OF	$3,700	N/A	N/A
7	Pedro Severino	RIGHT	0.315	0.196	0.065	29.2%	8.3%	22.2%	34.8%	C	$2,000	C	$2,700	N/A	N/A
8	Tanner Roark	RIGHT	0.146	0.062	0.000	22.2%	0.0%	25.0%	85.7%	P	$8,000	P	$8,300	N/A	N/A
9	Wilmer Difo	SWITCH	0.249	0.310	0.122	29.0%	5.8%	21.2%	43.2%	2B	$2,700	2B/3B	$3,100	N/A	N/A
	Team Averages		0.326	0.294	0.175	34.9%	9.2%	20.0%	48.6%

Elite Plays – Trea Turner, Bryce Harper, Anthony Rendon

Secondary Plays – Mark Reynolds, Juan Soto

Stackability – YELLOW / GREEN

Baltimore at NY Mets – 1:10 PM ET

Stats	wOBA	xwOBA	HC%	BB%	K%	GB%	Stats	wOBA	xwOBA	HC%	BB%	K%	GB%
Baltimore								NY Mets
			Dylan Bundy							Zack Wheeler
			RIGHT							RIGHT
			Vegas Moneyline							Vegas Over/Under
			NYM-120							8.0
SP vs. Left (2016-17)	0.392	0.399	38.1%	8.4%	22.4%	29.2%	SP vs. Left (2016-17)	0.328	0.357	43.1%	10.1%	24.2%	39.7%
SP vs. Right (2016-17)	0.304	0.299	36.7%	5.3%	34.0%	39.3%	SP vs. Right (2016-17)	0.323	0.307	23.4%	7.2%	21.7%	52.9%

Pitcher Grind Down

	Stats	Starts	SIERA	ERA	K%	BB%	GB%	HC%	SC%
Dylan Bundy
	FanDuel			DraftKings			FantasyDraft
	Salary:		$9,100	Salary:		$8,700	Salary:
	Salary Rank:		3 of 28	Salary Rank:		9 of 28	Salary Rank:
	2017	28	4.45	4.24	21.8%	7.3%	32.8%	36.5%	17.6%
	2018	12	3.39	4.46	28.3%	6.8%	34.1%	37.4%	17.1%
	L14	2	2.27	3.60	34.5%	1.7%	31.4%	50.0%	19.4%

Bundy had a string of a few bad starts, but has otherwise been tremendous this season. Overall, he has a 3.39 SIERA with a strikeout rate of 28% and a walk rate of 7%. His high fly-ball and hard contact rates are negated by his high strikeout rate. He plays in a pitcher-friendly ballpark today and gets a rare opportunity to face the opposing pitcher in the lineup. The Mets hit right-handed pitching well as a whole, but do have five batters in their projected lineup with strikeout rates of at least 20% against right-handed pitching.

Quick Breakdown: Bundy has plenty of upside, especially at his price point.

	Stats	Starts	SIERA	ERA	K%	BB%	GB%	HC%	SC%
Zack Wheeler
	FanDuel			DraftKings			FantasyDraft
	Salary:		$7,100	Salary:		$7,700	Salary:
	Salary Rank:		14 of 28	Salary Rank:		12 of 28	Salary Rank:
	2017	17	4.64	5.21	21.0%	10.4%	47.5%	32.8%	18.3%
	2018	10	4.00	5.14	22.7%	8.4%	47.9%	30.8%	24.4%
	L14	3	3.44	3.50	24.4%	5.1%	46.3%	34.6%	29.1%

Wheeler seems to have turned a corner in his last few starts, posting a 3.44 SIERA with a strikeout rate of 24% and a walk rate of 5%. It’s hard to think of a better matchup for Wheeler, as he gets to face a right-handed heavy Orioles’ lineup at home. On the season, Wheeler has held righties to a .307 xwOBA on a 53% ground ball rate. The only lefties in the Orioles’ lineup are Jace Peterson, Chris Davis, and Chance Sisco, none of whom should scare us. Their lineup as a whole has a 26% strikeout rate against right-handed pitching.

Quick Breakdown: Wheeler is one of my favorite point-per-dollar targets of the early slate.

Batter Grind Down

Baltimore

The Orioles are playing on the road in a pitcher-friendly ballpark under National League rules, which means they won’t be able to utilize the DH in this series. Their offense is basically a screwdriver and their matchup against Zack Wheeler calls for a hammer. In other words, they don’t have enough left-handed hitters to take advantage of Wheeler’s splits — .357 xwOBA with a 43% hard contact rate allowed to lefties this season.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

#	Player	Bats	xwOBA	L15	ISO	HC%	BB%	K%	GB%	FD Pos.	FD Sal.	DK Pos.	DK Sal.	FDRFT Pos.	FDRFT Sal.
1	Jace Peterson	LEFT	0.278	0.292	0.080	26.9%	10.5%	26.7%	48.1%	2B	$2,100	2B/3B	$2,700	N/A	N/A
2	Adam Jones	RIGHT	0.369	0.370	0.234	37.0%	2.3%	19.1%	40.3%	OF	$3,100	OF	$3,800	N/A	N/A
3	Manny Machado	RIGHT	0.378	0.275	0.293	32.6%	10.7%	17.1%	34.1%	SS	$4,300	SS	$5,300	N/A	N/A
4	Mark Trumbo	RIGHT	0.354	0.341	0.134	46.9%	2.9%	25.7%	42.9%	OF	$2,500	1B	$3,500	N/A	N/A
5	Jonathan Schoop	RIGHT	0.219	0.177	0.181	21.2%	0.8%	27.5%	46.4%	2B	$3,000	2B	$3,400	N/A	N/A
6	Trey Mancini	RIGHT	0.382	0.289	0.125	35.8%	10.4%	22.7%	48.6%	OF	$2,300	1B/OF	$3,300	N/A	N/A
7	Chris Davis	LEFT	0.276	0.231	0.043	31.4%	8.4%	35.5%	48.8%	1B	$2,100	1B	$2,800	N/A	N/A
8	Chance Sisco	LEFT	0.288	0.334	0.099	34.0%	8.5%	35.8%	44.2%	C	$2,100	C	$3,100	N/A	N/A
9	Dylan Bundy	RIGHT								P	$9,100	P	$8,700	N/A	N/A
	Team Averages		0.318	0.289	0.149	33.2%	6.8%	26.3%	44.2%

Elite Plays – None

Secondary Plays – Jace Peterson, Manny Machado

Stackability – ORANGE

NY Mets

The total for this game is set at 8.0 runs, which seems a bit high given the fact that both pitchers should have success in their respective matchups. On the season, Dylan Bundy has a 28% strikeout rate, but has allowed a .399 xwOBA to left-handed hitters. The Mets’ lineup isn’t loaded with lefties, but Brandon Nimmo, Asdrubal Cabrera, Michael Conforto, and Jay Bruce all boast a .345+ xwOBA against right-handed pitching.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

#	Player	Bats	xwOBA	L15	ISO	HC%	BB%	K%	GB%	FD Pos.	FD Sal.	DK Pos.	DK Sal.	FDRFT Pos.	FDRFT Sal.
1	Brandon Nimmo	LEFT	0.457	0.401	0.344	45.1%	15.7%	16.5%	25.7%	OF	$3,300	OF	$4,400	N/A	N/A
2	Asdrubal Cabrera	SWITCH	0.403	0.403	0.234	47.2%	5.5%	18.9%	36.1%	2B	$3,100	2B	$4,000	N/A	N/A
3	Jose Bautista	RIGHT	0.328	0.408	0.132	54.2%	9.5%	33.3%	33.3%	OF	$2,600	3B/OF	$3,600	N/A	N/A
4	Michael Conforto	LEFT	0.348	0.347	0.164	28.2%	17.0%	22.0%	38.8%	OF	$2,900	OF	$3,800	N/A	N/A
5	Todd Frazier	RIGHT	0.385		0.182	43.9%	15.6%	22.0%	36.4%	3B	$3,000	3B	$3,800	N/A	N/A
6	Devin Mesoraco	RIGHT	0.346	0.346	0.284	31.0%	7.3%	19.5%	34.5%	C	$2,500	C	$3,300	N/A	N/A
7	Jay Bruce	LEFT	0.377	0.357	0.140	34.6%	11.0%	16.6%	30.8%	OF	$2,500	OF	$3,300	N/A	N/A
8	Zack Wheeler	RIGHT	0.145	0.214	0.000	11.1%	0.0%	25.0%	37.5%	P	$7,100	P	$7,700	N/A	N/A
9	Amed Rosario	RIGHT	0.297	0.317	0.101	28.8%	3.4%	20.4%	51.4%	SS	$2,300	SS	$3,200	N/A	N/A
	Team Averages		0.343	0.349	0.176	36.0%	9.4%	21.6%	36.1%

Elite Plays – None

Secondary Plays – Brandon Nimmo, Asdrubal Cabrera, Michael Conforto, Jay Bruce

Stackability – ORANGE / YELLOW

Milwaukee at Cleveland – 1:10 PM ET

Stats	wOBA	xwOBA	HC%	BB%	K%	GB%	Stats	wOBA	xwOBA	HC%	BB%	K%	GB%
Milwaukee								Cleveland
			Chase Anderson							Carlos Carrasco
			RIGHT							RIGHT
			Vegas Moneyline							Vegas Over/Under
			CLE-190							8.5
SP vs. Left (2016-17)	0.313	0.336	36.6%	10.5%	18.1%	32.2%	SP vs. Left (2016-17)	0.288	0.299	33.7%	8.2%	24.6%	39.8%
SP vs. Right (2016-17)	0.351	0.361	32.2%	7.7%	12.8%	37.2%	SP vs. Right (2016-17)	0.311	0.336	38.0%	4.5%	22.5%	39.8%

Pitcher Grind Down

	Stats	Starts	SIERA	ERA	K%	BB%	GB%	HC%	SC%
Chase Anderson
	FanDuel			DraftKings			FantasyDraft
	Salary:		$6,100	Salary:		$4,900	Salary:
	Salary Rank:		22 of 28	Salary Rank:		25 of 28	Salary Rank:
	2017	25	4.14	2.74	23.4%	7.2%	39.2%	31.7%	19.9%
	2018	11	5.18	4.45	15.6%	9.2%	34.7%	34.4%	21.3%
	L14	3	5.64	5.87	13.6%	10.6%	29.8%	42.9%	14.3%

Anderson can’t seem to find his form from 2018. In 11 starts this season, he has a 5.18 SIERA with a strikeout rate of 16% and a hard contact rate (34%) that matches his ground ball rate. To make matters worse, he has to pitch on the road against one of the best offenses in baseball. The Indians’ projected lineup has a .371 xwOBA, a .210 ISO, and a strikeout rate of only 21% against right-handed pitching.

Quick Breakdown: Avoid Anderson in all formats.

	Stats	Starts	SIERA	ERA	K%	BB%	GB%	HC%	SC%
Carlos Carrasco
	FanDuel			DraftKings			FantasyDraft
	Salary:		$9,400	Salary:		$10,000	Salary:
	Salary Rank:		2 of 28	Salary Rank:		6 of 28	Salary Rank:
	2017	32	3.35	3.29	28.3%	5.8%	45.2%	29.3%	19.4%
	2018	12	3.74	4.50	23.4%	6.1%	39.8%	36.2%	12.8%
	L14	2	4.75	10.61	20.8%	10.4%	25.0%	43.8%	15.6%

Carrasco is still an above-average pitcher, but we’ve seen a major dip in his strikeout rate this season. In 12 starts, he has a 3.74 SIERA with a strikeout rate of 23%. While he’s still playable, he hasn’t been in the same elite category that he was a year ago. Luckily, he draws an exploitable matchup against the Brewers and he comes into the game as a large favorite. Even though his home splits are worrisome, the Brewers’ projected lineup has a 25% strikeout rate against right-handed pitching.

Quick Breakdown: Carrasco isn’t a core play, but he’s certainly one of the top options of the slate.

Batter Grind Down

Milwaukee

The Brewers have three hitters with at least a .405 xwOBA against right-handed pitching this season (Christian Yelich, Jesus Aguilar, and Travis Shaw), but this is far from an ideal matchup. In addition to having an above-average strikeout rate, Carlos Carrasco has held lefties to a .299 xwOBA while allowing a .336 xwOBA to righties. The three hitters mentioned are decent leverage plays in tournaments, but easy fades in cash games.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

#	Player	Bats	xwOBA	L15	ISO	HC%	BB%	K%	GB%	FD Pos.	FD Sal.	DK Pos.	DK Sal.	FDRFT Pos.	FDRFT Sal.
1	Lorenzo Cain	RIGHT	0.334	0.344	0.126	38.7%	15.3%	21.6%	56.3%	OF	$3,400	OF	$4,200	N/A	N/A
2	Christian Yelich	LEFT	0.407	0.435	0.198	45.1%	10.8%	19.6%	48.0%	OF	$4,100	OF	$5,000	N/A	N/A
3	Jesus Aguilar	RIGHT	0.412	0.408	0.228	45.4%	8.5%	24.6%	26.7%	1B	$3,300	1B	$3,900	N/A	N/A
4	Travis Shaw	LEFT	0.431	0.372	0.327	39.5%	13.6%	16.4%	32.3%	3B	$3,500	3B	$4,300	N/A	N/A
5	Ryan Braun	RIGHT	0.299	0.402	0.144	30.0%	5.8%	27.5%	47.5%	OF	$2,600	1B/OF	$4,200	N/A	N/A
6	Ji-Man Choi	LEFT	0.384	0.326	0.294	55.6%	10.5%	42.1%	22.2%	1B	$2,200	1B/OF	$3,500	N/A	N/A
7	Jonathan Villar	SWITCH	0.274	0.344	0.109	36.8%	5.8%	30.9%	63.4%	2B	$2,800	2B	$3,500	N/A	N/A
8	Manny Pina	RIGHT	0.293	0.306	0.121	36.0%	5.2%	16.5%	41.6%	C	$2,000	C	$2,800	N/A	N/A
9	Orlando Arcia	RIGHT	0.225	0.140	0.085	25.6%	4.9%	25.2%	59.3%	SS	$2,000	SS	$2,700	N/A	N/A
	Team Averages		0.340	0.342	0.181	39.2%	8.9%	24.9%	44.1%

Elite Plays – None

Secondary Plays – Christian Yelich, Jesus Aguilar, Travis Shaw

Stackability – ORANGE

Cleveland

The Indians’ stack didn’t pay off like I was hoping it would last night, but I will be going right back to the well tonight. Chase Anderson is a fly-ball pitcher that gives up a lot of hard contact. On the season, he has allowed a .336 xwOBA to lefties and a .361 xwOBA to righties. Each of the first five batters in Cleveland’s projected lineup has a .370+ xwOBA and a .205+ ISO against right-handed pitching.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

#	Player	Bats	xwOBA	L15	ISO	HC%	BB%	K%	GB%	FD Pos.	FD Sal.	DK Pos.	DK Sal.	FDRFT Pos.	FDRFT Sal.
1	Francisco Lindor	SWITCH	0.416	0.382	0.292	40.5%	9.3%	20.3%	30.6%	SS	$4,700	SS	$5,200	N/A	N/A
2	Michael Brantley	LEFT	0.443	0.416	0.252	44.5%	7.5%	10.3%	42.9%	OF	$4,500	OF	$4,800	N/A	N/A
3	Jose Ramirez	SWITCH	0.418	0.420	0.362	31.5%	16.2%	10.6%	35.4%	3B	$5,100	3B	$5,600	N/A	N/A
4	Edwin Encarnacion	RIGHT	0.392	0.422	0.308	38.5%	6.8%	26.1%	37.5%	1B	$4,400	1B	$5,000	N/A	N/A
5	Yonder Alonso	LEFT	0.372	0.383	0.207	38.1%	9.0%	23.1%	39.4%	1B	$3,600	1B	$4,300	N/A	N/A
6	Jason Kipnis	LEFT	0.348	0.375	0.080	38.8%	8.8%	18.8%	38.6%	2B	$3,300	2B	$3,600	N/A	N/A
7	Yan Gomes	RIGHT	0.265	0.237	0.149	34.9%	4.9%	31.4%	33.3%	C	$2,300	C	$3,300	N/A	N/A
8	Lonnie Chisenhall	LEFT	0.377		0.071	45.5%	16.7%	16.7%	36.4%	OF	$2,200	OF	$3,100	N/A	N/A
9	Greg Allen	SWITCH	0.312	0.375	0.167	40.5%	7.6%	27.3%	43.6%	OF	$2,800	OF	$3,700	N/A	N/A
	Team Averages		0.371	0.376	0.210	39.2%	9.6%	20.5%	37.5%

Elite Plays – Francisco Lindor, Micheal Brantley, Jose Ramirez, Edwin Encarnacion

Secondary Plays – Yonder Alonso, Jason Kipnis

Stackability – GREEN

Atlanta at San Diego – 3:40 PM ET

Stats	wOBA	xwOBA	HC%	BB%	K%	GB%	Stats	wOBA	xwOBA	HC%	BB%	K%	GB%
Atlanta								San Diego
			Mike Foltynewicz							Matt Strahm
			RIGHT							LEFT
			Vegas Moneyline							Vegas Over/Under
			ATL-115							7.5
SP vs. Left (2016-17)	0.298	0.322	32.9%	13.7%	27.4%	38.8%	SP vs. Left (2016-17)	0.495	0.547	30.0%	28.6%	0.0%	50.0%
SP vs. Right (2016-17)	0.246	0.281	33.3%	7.3%	29.0%	44.2%	SP vs. Right (2016-17)	0.226	0.349	28.0%	13.9%	16.7%	32.0%

Pitcher Grind Down

	Stats	Starts	SIERA	ERA	K%	BB%	GB%	HC%	SC%
Mike Foltynewicz
	FanDuel			DraftKings			FantasyDraft
	Salary:		$9,000	Salary:		$11,600	Salary:
	Salary Rank:		4 of 28	Salary Rank:		1 of 28	Salary Rank:
	2017	28	4.57	4.79	20.7%	8.5%	39.4%	28.1%	15.8%
	2018	12	3.73	2.22	28.2%	10.6%	41.5%	33.1%	19.8%
	L14	3	3.25	0.82	28.8%	7.5%	45.1%	25.5%	23.5%

Foltynewicz is having a breakout season for the Padres. In 12 starts, he has a 3.73 SIERA with a strikeout rate of 28%. He may not have the best control, but we are more than willing to live with it when it’s accompanied by an elite strikeout rate. He draws the best matchup on the board, as he squares off against the Padres in Petco Park. San Diego’s projected lineup has a .289 xwOBA with a 22% strikeout rate against right-handed pitching.

Quick Breakdown: Foltynewicz is a great play on paper, but he’s priced at a premium. There are better values available.

	Stats	Starts	SIERA	ERA	K%	BB%	GB%	HC%	SC%
Matt Strahm
	FanDuel			DraftKings			FantasyDraft
	Salary:		$5,500	Salary:		$4,000	Salary:
	Salary Rank:		28 of 30	Salary Rank:		28 of 30	Salary Rank:
	2017	3	4.75	5.45	24.0%	14.3%	37.1%	28.3%	22.8%
	2018	1	6.60	3.18	12.0%	18.0%	37.1%	28.6%	28.6%
	L14	1	4.79	2.08	17.7%	11.8%	50.0%	33.3%	33.3%

Strahm will be making his second start of the season and his fifth in the last two years. He is the Padres’ number one prospect and a quick glance at his minor league numbers shows why. In nine appearances in Double-A, he posted a 2.75 FIP with a strikeout rate of 36%. The problem with Strahm is that he’s been used out of the bullpen this season, so he may not be stretched out enough to throw a full complement of pitches. A matchup against the Braves doesn’t help either.

Quick Breakdown: Given the fact that Strahm is likely to be on a pitch count, I will look elsewhere at pitcher.

Batter Grind Down

Atlanta

The Braves are facing the Padres’ top pitching prospect, but he may not pitch deep into this game. Rather than focusing on the splits for the matchup, I will treat the Braves the same way I treated the Nationals — target the hitters that fare well against both left and right-handed hitters. This includes Ozzie Albies, Freddie Freeman, and Tyler Flowers.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. LH Pitching)

#	Player	Bats	xwOBA	L15	ISO	HC%	BB%	K%	GB%	FD Pos.	FD Sal.	DK Pos.	DK Sal.	FDRFT Pos.	FDRFT Sal.
1	Ender Inciarte	LEFT	0.285	0.301	0.126	26.7%	6.9%	13.8%	45.5%	OF	$2,800	OF	$3,900	N/A	N/A
2	Ozzie Albies	SWITCH	0.319	0.276	0.221	31.7%	6.1%	19.3%	37.1%	2B	$4,300	2B	$4,800	N/A	N/A
3	Freddie Freeman	LEFT	0.448	0.371	0.171	47.1%	16.4%	14.7%	30.6%	1B	$4,500	1B	$5,100	N/A	N/A
4	Nick Markakis	LEFT	0.389	0.301	0.147	34.5%	11.0%	6.4%	43.0%	OF	$3,700	OF	$4,300	N/A	N/A
5	Tyler Flowers	RIGHT	0.375	0.380	0.116	51.7%	12.0%	28.0%	31.0%	C	$3,000	C	$3,500	N/A	N/A
6	Johan Camargo	SWITCH	0.393	0.408	0.229	45.5%	20.9%	16.5%	49.1%	3B	$2,800	3B/SS	$3,600	N/A	N/A
7	Preston Tucker	LEFT	0.290	0.186	0.172	36.8%	6.0%	26.0%	46.3%	OF	$2,000	OF	$3,200	N/A	N/A
8	Dansby Swanson	RIGHT	0.295	0.201	0.161	28.4%	6.7%	28.9%	45.7%	SS	$2,900	SS	$3,700	N/A	N/A
9	Mike Foltynewicz	RIGHT	0.052	0.000	0.053	33.3%	0.0%	70.0%	50.0%	P	$9,000	P	$11,600	N/A	N/A
	Team Averages		0.316	0.269	0.155	37.3%	9.6%	24.8%	42.0%

Elite Plays – Freddie Freeman

Secondary Plays – Ozzie Albies, Nick Markakis, Tyler Flowers

Stackability – ORANGE / YELLOW

San Diego

The Padres have struggled offensively for years and there is seemingly no end in sight. They draw a difficult matchup against Mike Foltynewicz, who has an elite strikeout rate and who has held both left and right-handed under a .325 xwOBA this season. Eric Hosmer is the only hitter in this lineup with good numbers against right-handed pitching this season and first base is typically too loaded to justify playing him.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

#	Player	Bats	xwOBA	L15	ISO	HC%	BB%	K%	GB%	FD Pos.	FD Sal.	DK Pos.	DK Sal.	FDRFT Pos.	FDRFT Sal.
1	Travis Jankowski	LEFT	0.277	0.202	0.091	11.7%	9.3%	11.3%	68.1%	OF	$2,600	OF	$3,700	N/A	N/A
2	Eric Hosmer	LEFT	0.354	0.296	0.171	37.9%	12.1%	20.8%	58.6%	1B	$3,900	1B	$4,100	N/A	N/A
3	Jose Pirela	RIGHT	0.284	0.393	0.076	36.9%	5.5%	22.5%	59.2%	2B	$3,000	2B/OF	$3,300	N/A	N/A
4	Christian Villanueva	RIGHT	0.278	0.357	0.158	29.4%	5.3%	26.7%	30.6%	3B	$3,400	3B	$4,400	N/A	N/A
5	Franmil Reyes	RIGHT	0.304	0.403	0.162	41.7%	2.6%	34.2%	45.8%	OF	$3,400	OF	$3,200	N/A	N/A
6	Freddy Galvis	SWITCH	0.278	0.321	0.068	39.5%	10.2%	21.0%	49.5%	SS	$2,400	SS	$2,700	N/A	N/A
7	Manuel Margot	RIGHT	0.273	0.254	0.096	30.1%	8.5%	18.5%	57.1%	OF	$2,500	OF	$3,200	N/A	N/A
8	Raffy Lopez	LEFT	0.260	0.191	0.109	43.8%	10.9%	39.1%	25.0%	C	$2,500	C	$2,700	N/A	N/A
9					1.000	100.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	P	$5,800	P	$6,500	0	$0
	Team Averages		0.289	0.302	0.215	41.2%	7.2%	21.6%	43.8%

Elite Plays – None

Secondary Plays – Eric Hosmer

Stackability –

Arizona at San Francisco – 3:45 PM ET

Stats	wOBA	xwOBA	HC%	BB%	K%	GB%	Stats	wOBA	xwOBA	HC%	BB%	K%	GB%
Arizona								San Francisco
			Clay Buchholz							Chris Stratton
			RIGHT							RIGHT
			Vegas Moneyline							Vegas Over/Under
			SF -140							8.0
SP vs. Left (2016-17)	0.158	0.233	22.2%	2.9%	17.7%	29.6%	SP vs. Left (2016-17)	0.345	0.383	37.2%	12.0%	17.0%	42.0%
SP vs. Right (2016-17)	0.250	0.401	45.8%	3.0%	24.2%	33.3%	SP vs. Right (2016-17)	0.312	0.364	46.7%	8.0%	24.8%	37.8%

Pitcher Grind Down

	Stats	Starts	SIERA	ERA	K%	BB%	GB%	HC%	SC%
Clay Buchholz
	FanDuel			DraftKings			FantasyDraft
	Salary:		$6,500	Salary:		$7,200	Salary:
	Salary Rank:		19 of 28	Salary Rank:		15 of 28	Salary Rank:
	2017	2	5.82	12.27	12.5%	7.5%	28.1%	28.1%	18.8%
	2018	3	4.01	1.50	20.9%	3.0%	31.4%	33.3%	17.7%
	L14	2	3.39	1.38	24.5%	2.0%	33.3%	33.3%	19.4%

Buchholz has pitched well this season, posting a 4.01 SIERA with a strikeout rate of 21% and a walk rate of 3%. While it’s nice to see him pitching well, it’s going to take more than three starts to convince me that he’s back to his 2015 form. While a matchup against the Giants in this ballpark is intriguing, I would much rather target Zack Wheeler at home against a right-handed heavy Orioles’ offense.

Quick Breakdown: I need a bigger sample before making a decision on Buchholz.

	Stats	Starts	SIERA	ERA	K%	BB%	GB%	HC%	SC%
Chris Stratton
	FanDuel			DraftKings			FantasyDraft
	Salary:		$6,700	Salary:		$6,700	Salary:
	Salary Rank:		17 of 28	Salary Rank:		18 of 28	Salary Rank:
	2017	10	4.83	3.68	19.9%	10.9%	42.8%	28.4%	21.0%
	2018	12	4.60	4.50	20.2%	10.3%	40.3%	41.0%	10.6%
	L14	2	3.20	2.45	30.2%	9.3%	56.0%	26.9%	15.4%

Stratton has all of a sudden found a way to strikeout batters at a high clip. In his last two starts, he had a 30% strikeout rate. This is not sustainable, but at least he’s up to 20% on the season. The Diamondbacks have been better offensively over the last couple of weeks, but are still an exploitable matchup in the right ballpark. Arizona’s projected lineup (if you exclude the numbers for Clay Buchholz) has a .328 xwOBA with a 23% strikeout rate against right-handed pitching.

Quick Breakdown: Stratton is the preferred pitching target in this game and viable as an SP2.

Batter Grind Down

Arizona

The Diamondbacks are playing on the road in a pitcher-friendly ballpark and have one of the lowest implied totals on the board. While Chris Stratton has been a decent value play in DFS, he has allowed a .383 xwOBA to lefties and a .364 xwOBA to righties this season. This is far from an ideal ballpark, but Daniel Descalso, Jake Lamb, and David Peralta are all secondary options that should fly under the radar in tournaments.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

#	Player	Bats	xwOBA	L15	ISO	HC%	BB%	K%	GB%	FD Pos.	FD Sal.	DK Pos.	DK Sal.	FDRFT Pos.	FDRFT Sal.
1	Daniel Descalso	LEFT	0.377	0.300	0.254	41.4%	15.7%	21.4%	29.9%	2B	$3,200	2B/3B	$3,400	N/A	N/A
2	Paul Goldschmidt	RIGHT	0.311	0.345	0.099	37.5%	12.9%	31.5%	43.8%	1B	$4,000	1B	$4,600	N/A	N/A
3	Jake Lamb	LEFT	0.394	0.439	0.188	50.0%	13.8%	27.6%	41.2%	3B	$3,300	3B	$4,000	N/A	N/A
4	John Ryan Murphy	RIGHT	0.294	0.523	0.261	40.0%	6.0%	34.0%	13.8%	C	$2,400	C	$3,700	N/A	N/A
5	David Peralta	LEFT	0.378	0.325	0.237	50.5%	9.2%	18.3%	50.0%	OF	$3,400	OF	$4,000	N/A	N/A
6	Ketel Marte	SWITCH	0.286	0.353	0.120	27.1%	6.7%	13.3%	53.8%	SS	$3,000	2B/SS	$2,900	N/A	N/A
7	Chris Owings	RIGHT	0.287	0.220	0.103	30.6%	7.6%	23.8%	47.9%	OF	$2,400	2B/OF	$2,800	N/A	N/A
8	Jarrod Dyson	LEFT	0.293	0.335	0.087	22.6%	10.3%	10.3%	38.4%	OF	$2,400	OF	$2,900	N/A	N/A
9	Clay Buchholz	RIGHT	0.503	0.416	0.000	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	P	$6,500	P	$7,200	N/A	N/A
	Team Averages		0.347	0.362	0.150	33.3%	9.1%	20.0%	35.4%

Elite Plays – None

Secondary Plays – Daniel Descalso, Jake Lamb, David Peralta

Stackability – ORANGE

San Francisco

The Giants’ matchup against Clay Buchholz is difficult to break down because we’ve seen so many different versions of him over the years. Instead of relying on splits, I’ll rely on the betting markets. The Giants have a relatively high implied run total, so at the very least we can target this offense for one-offs in tournaments. Joe Panik, Buster Posey, and Andrew McCutchen all boast a .350+ xwOBA against right-handed pitching.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

#	Player	Bats	xwOBA	L15	ISO	HC%	BB%	K%	GB%	FD Pos.	FD Sal.	DK Pos.	DK Sal.	FDRFT Pos.	FDRFT Sal.
1	Joe Panik	LEFT	0.424	0.464	0.107	34.0%	9.2%	6.2%	47.2%	2B	$3,200	2B	$3,400	N/A	N/A
2	Buster Posey	RIGHT	0.353	0.312	0.093	35.4%	6.9%	15.4%	48.5%	C	$3,100	C	$3,800	N/A	N/A
3	Andrew McCutchen	RIGHT	0.362	0.302	0.144	47.1%	14.6%	20.3%	32.4%	OF	$3,500	OF	$3,800	N/A	N/A
4	Brandon Crawford	LEFT	0.347	0.385	0.122	39.1%	5.0%	19.9%	39.8%	SS	$3,600	SS	$3,800	N/A	N/A
5	Evan Longoria	RIGHT	0.314	0.351	0.163	44.4%	3.3%	25.5%	39.8%	3B	$2,800	3B	$3,800	N/A	N/A
6	Pablo Sandoval	SWITCH	0.315	0.277	0.137	45.1%	6.3%	29.1%	54.9%	3B	$2,400	1B/3B	$3,000	N/A	N/A
7	Hunter Pence	RIGHT	0.208		0.000	33.3%	0.0%	37.9%	38.9%	OF	$2,100	OF	$2,800	N/A	N/A
8	Gorkys Hernandez	RIGHT	0.316	0.295	0.185	35.1%	3.5%	29.4%	46.3%	OF	$2,800	OF	$3,500	N/A	N/A
9	Chris Stratton	RIGHT	0.136	0.217	0.000	33.3%	0.0%	40.0%	80.0%	P	$6,700	P	$6,700	N/A	N/A
	Team Averages		0.308	0.325	0.106	38.5%	5.4%	24.9%	47.5%

Elite Plays – None

Secondary Plays – Joe Panik, Buster Posey, Andrew McCutchen, Brandon Crawford

Stackability – ORANGE / YELLOW

Note: Unless noted, all statistics in the Grind Down are from the 2018 season.

MLB Grind Down: Wednesday, June 6th

Jump to Page 1 2 3

Stackability Rating System:

Implied Run Totals

Ballpark Ratings

Tampa Bay at Washington – 1:05 PM ET

Pitcher Grind Down

Batter Grind Down

Tampa Bay

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

Washington

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. LH Pitching)

Baltimore at NY Mets – 1:10 PM ET

Pitcher Grind Down

Batter Grind Down

Baltimore

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

NY Mets

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

Milwaukee at Cleveland – 1:10 PM ET

Pitcher Grind Down

Batter Grind Down

Milwaukee

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

Cleveland

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

Atlanta at San Diego – 3:40 PM ET

Pitcher Grind Down

Batter Grind Down

Atlanta

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. LH Pitching)

San Diego

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

Arizona at San Francisco – 3:45 PM ET

Pitcher Grind Down

Batter Grind Down

Arizona

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

San Francisco

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

Jump to Page 1 2 3

About the Author