MLB Grind Down: Wednesday, May 25th - Page Three

by Derek Farnsworth (Notorious) Last Updated 2016-05-25 18:50:43

Miami at Tampa Bay – 7:10 PM ET

Stats	wOBA	HR All.	K%	BB%	Stats	wOBA	HR All.	K%	BB%
Miami					Tampa Bay
			Justin Nicolino					Matt Andriese
			LEFT					RIGHT
			Vegas Moneyline					Vegas Over/Under
			TB -200					8.5
SP vs. Left	0.279	1	11.0%	6.6%	SP vs. Left	0.305	5	15.4%	7.4%
SP vs. Right	0.330	10	5.7%	7.5%	SP vs. Right	0.274	4	17.7%	5.6%

Pitcher Grind Down

Statistics	Starts	SIERA	ERA	K%	BB%	SS%	GB%	FB%	HH%
Justin Nicolino
				FanDuel			DraftKings
				Salary:		$6,100	Salary:		$5,200
				FPPG:		17.6	FPPG:		7.0
				Pitcher Rating:		13.0	Pitcher Rank:		30
L14 Days	2	6.55	7.20	6.7%	11.1%	2.0%	32.4%	40.5%	48.7%
2016	5	6.24	4.30	4.9%	8.9%	3.1%	45.6%	35.9%	36.8%
2015	12	5.59	4.01	7.6%	6.6%	5.1%	44.4%	37.5%	30.2%

Nicolino is not a pitcher that should be on your radar in daily fantasy. He has a 6.24 SIERA with a strikeout rate of 4.9%. And no, I didn’t leave out a number, he has struck out less than 5% of the batters that he has faced this season. He is an easy avoid tonight against the Rays, who are one of the best offenses in baseball against left-handed pitching.

Statistics	Starts	SIERA	ERA	K%	BB%	SS%	GB%	FB%	HH%
Matt Andriese
				FanDuel			DraftKings
				Salary:		$7,600	Salary:		$8,100
				FPPG:		39.3	FPPG:		22.3
				Pitcher Rating:		68.8	Pitcher Rank:		8
L14 Days	2	4.56	2.51	15.1%	3.8%	9.1%	38.1%	50.0%	28.6%
2016	3	4.78	2.11	14.1%	6.4%	8.3%	44.3%	42.6%	31.2%
2015	8	4.02	4.11	17.4%	6.4%	8.6%	48.1%	34.8%	32.9%

Andriese is a very interesting play tonight. He would typically be a guy that we would reserve for tournaments, but as I have mentioned, pitching is bleak tonight. Andriese’s numbers aren’t overly impressive, but he is one of the biggest favorites on the board and his price is pretty cheap across the industry. He is a viable option tonight at home against the Marlins.

Batter Grind Down

Miami

The Marlins come into tonight’s game with the seventh lowest team total on the board. Their matchup against Matt Andriese isn’t terrible, but they have to face him in the pitcher-friendly Tropicana Field. Giancarlo Stanton is really the only Marlins’ hitter that stands out in this matchup. He finally appears to be coming out of his slump and he is still cheap across the industry.

Marlins Offense (2016)
Team wOBA vs. RHP — 0.326 (8 of 30)
Team ISO vs. RHP — 0.152 (18 of 30)
Team K% vs. RHP — 19.5% (11 of 30)
Runs Per Game — 3.96 (21 of 30)
Projected Run Total — 3.67 (24 of 30)

Projected Lineup

#	Player	Bats	wOBA vs. RHP	ISO vs. RHP	wOBA L14	FD Position	FD Salary	DK Position	DK Salary
1	Ichiro Suzuki	LEFT	0.253	0.033	0.475	OF	$2,200	OF	$2,500
2	Martin Prado	RIGHT	0.314	0.090	0.255	3B	$2,700	3B	$3,600
3	Justin Bour	LEFT	0.361	0.257	0.395	1B	$3,300	1B	$3,700
4	Giancarlo Stanton	RIGHT	0.357	0.277	0.224	OF	$3,300	OF	$4,200
5	Marcell Ozuna	RIGHT	0.304	0.141	0.518	OF	$3,800	OF	$4,800
6	Derek Dietrich	LEFT	0.370	0.215	0.300	2B	$3,100	2B/3B	$3,500
7	J.T. Realmuto	RIGHT	0.298	0.128	0.291	C	$2,600	C	$3,300
8	Adeiny Hechavarria	RIGHT	0.272	0.084	0.243	SS	$2,400	SS	$2,700
9	Miguel Rojas	RIGHT	0.312	0.078	0.399	SS	$2,000	2B/SS	$2,600
	Team Averages	—	0.316	0.145	0.344	—	—	—	—

Elite Plays – Giancarlo Stanton

Secondary Plays – Ichiro Suzuki, Derek Dietrich

Stackability – NONE

Tampa Bay

The Rays are one of the best offenses in baseball against left-handed pitching and they draw one of the best matchups on the board tonight. They have the third highest run projection of the 30 teams in action. In addition to a low strikeout rate, Justin Nicolino has allowed a .330 wOBA and ten home runs to right-handed hitters in his last 17 major league starts.

Rays Offense (2016)
Team wOBA vs. LHP — 0.343 (5 of 30)
Team ISO vs. LHP — 0.210 (2 of 30)
Team K% vs. LHP — 23.1% (21 of 30)
Runs Per Game — 4.28 (13 of 30)
Projected Run Total — 4.83 (3 of 30)

Projected Lineup

#	Player	Bats	wOBA vs. LHP	ISO vs. LHP	wOBA L14	FD Position	FD Salary	DK Position	DK Salary
1	Brandon Guyer	RIGHT	0.391	0.201	0.406	OF	$3,400	OF	$4,300
2	Mikie Mahtook	RIGHT	0.423	0.347	0.221	OF	$2,000	OF	$3,200
3	Evan Longoria	RIGHT	0.381	0.222	0.386	3B	$4,000	3B	$5,000
4	Steve Pearce	RIGHT	0.348	0.233	0.407	1B	$3,600	1B/2B	$3,700
5	Steven Souza	RIGHT	0.353	0.211	0.349	OF	$3,200	OF	$4,300
6	Desmond Jennings	RIGHT	0.246	0.048	0.384	OF	$2,400	OF	$3,300
7	Taylor Motter	RIGHT	0.721	0.750	0.510	SS	$2,100	3B/SS	$3,300
8	Curt Casali	RIGHT	0.321	0.246	0.162	C	$2,500	C	$3,100
9	Tim Beckham	RIGHT	0.290	0.201	0.405	2B	$2,600	2B/SS	$3,100
	Team Averages	—	0.386	0.273	0.359	—	—	—	—

Elite Plays – Brandon Guyer, Evan Longoria, Steve Pearce

Secondary Plays – Mikie Mahtook, Steven Souza, Taylor Motter

Stackability – Cash & GPP

Milwaukee at Atlanta – 7:10 PM ET

Stats	wOBA	HR All.	K%	BB%	Stats	wOBA	HR All.	K%	BB%
Milwaukee					Atlanta
			Junior Guerra					Mike Foltynewicz
			RIGHT					RIGHT
			Vegas Moneyline					Vegas Over/Under
			MIL -115					7.5
SP vs. Left	0.337	1	24.4%	13.3%	SP vs. Left	0.415	12	17.0%	5.7%
SP vs. Right	0.278	2	22.9%	4.3%	SP vs. Right	0.349	10	20.9%	6.8%

Pitcher Grind Down

Statistics	Starts	SIERA	ERA	K%	BB%	SS%	GB%	FB%	HH%
Junior Guerra
				FanDuel			DraftKings
				Salary:		$7,200	Salary:		$7,400
				FPPG:		37.5	FPPG:		19.7
				Pitcher Rating:		70.4	Pitcher Rank:		7
L14 Days	2	3.36	2.08	30.0%	10.0%	14.3%	40.0%	43.3%	40.0%
2016	4	3.77	3.96	24.7%	8.3%	13.0%	33.3%	42.9%	35.4%
2015	0	3.28	6.75	16.7%	5.6%	10.6%	57.1%	21.4%	21.4%

Guerra has really made the most of his first stint in the majors. In his first four starts, he has a 3.77 SIERA with a strikeout rate of 24.7%. He is producing an elite swinging strike rate of 13% and even though the sample size is small, I like what I have seen so far. He draws one of the top matchups on the board tonight, as he squares off against the Braves in Atlanta. On the season, the Braves are ranked 29th in team wOBA and 30th in team ISO against right-handed pitching. Dollar for dollar, Guerra may be the best pitching option available tonight.

Statistics	Starts	SIERA	ERA	K%	BB%	SS%	GB%	FB%	HH%
Mike Foltynewicz
				FanDuel			DraftKings
				Salary:		$6,300	Salary:		$6,400
				FPPG:		23.8	FPPG:		11.7
				Pitcher Rating:		64.0	Pitcher Rank:		15
L14 Days	2	4.23	4.09	10.9%	0.0%	7.7%	46.2%	28.2%	22.5%
2016	4	3.80	4.57	18.3%	2.2%	7.6%	40.3%	37.5%	28.8%
2015	15	4.30	5.71	19.3%	7.3%	8.9%	33.3%	43.5%	32.5%

Foltynewicz is a sneaky tournament play tonight. He has shown decent strikeout upside in the last two seasons (just under a 20% K-rate) and he is facing a strikeout happy Brewers’ offense at home in the pitcher-friendly Turner Field. Foltynewicz doesn’t walk many batters and he should be able to challenge these Brewers’ hitters with his 95 MPH fastball. There is always a bit of risk when targeting an inconsistent pitcher like Foltynewicz, but the upside is there and his price is cheap.

Batter Grind Down

Milwaukee

The Brewers have been an average offense against right-handed pitching this season, ranking 12th in team wOBA and 15 in team ISO. They draw a decent matchup tonight against Mike Foltynewicz, who has allowed a .349+ wOBA to both left and right-handed hitters. The biggest concern here is the ballpark. Turner Field is one of the best pitcher’s parks in baseball.

Brewers Offense (2016)
Team wOBA vs. RHP — 0.319 (12 of 30)
Team ISO vs. RHP — 0.159 (15 of 30)
Team K% vs. RHP — 27.1% (30 of 30)
Runs Per Game — 4.13 (16 of 30)
Projected Run Total — 3.84 (19 of 30)

Projected Lineup

#	Player	Bats	wOBA vs. RHP	ISO vs. RHP	wOBA L14	FD Position	FD Salary	DK Position	DK Salary
1	Jonathan Villar	SWITCH	0.320	0.084	0.382	SS	$3,600	SS	$3,900
2	Scooter Gennett	LEFT	0.305	0.129	0.196	2B	$2,700	2B	$3,700
3	Ryan Braun	RIGHT	0.363	0.204	0.320	OF	$3,900	OF	$4,400
4	Jonathan Lucroy	RIGHT	0.348	0.165	0.310	C	$3,100	C	$3,800
5	Chris Carter	RIGHT	0.335	0.276	0.260	1B	$3,300	1B	$3,700
6	Kirk Nieuwenhuis	LEFT	0.305	0.172	0.296	OF	$2,400	OF	$3,300
7	Aaron Hill	RIGHT	0.301	0.140	0.280	3B	$2,200	2B/3B	$3,000
8	Alex Presley	LEFT	0.286	0.145	0.210	OF	$2,300	OF	$2,000
9	Junior Guerra	RIGHT	0.000	0.000	0.221	P	$7,200	P	$7,400
	Team Averages	—	0.285	0.146	0.275	—	—	—	—

Elite Plays – NONE

Secondary Plays – Jonathan Villar, Scooter Gennett, Ryan Braun, Jonathan Lucroy

Stackability – NONE

Atlanta

The Braves are one of the worst offenses in baseball. They are ranked 29th in team wOBA and 30th in team ISO against right-handed pitching. There is a reason why Junior Guerra stands out as such a good value play tonight. I always like targeting Freddie Freeman against right-handed pitching, but he’s really the only Braves’ hitters on my radar tonight.

Braves Offense (2016)
Team wOBA vs. RHP — 0.283 (29 of 30)
Team ISO vs. RHP — 0.089 (30 of 30)
Team K% vs. RHP — 19.4% (9 of 30)
Runs Per Game — 3.14 (30 of 30)
Projected Run Total — 3.66 (25 of 30)

Projected Lineup

#	Player	Bats	wOBA vs. RHP	wOBA vs. RHP	wOBA L14	FD Position	FD Salary	DK Position	DK Salary
1	Ender Inciarte	LEFT	0.344	0.116	0.235	OF	$3,000	OF	$3,900
2	Gordon Beckham	RIGHT	0.299	0.131	0.381	2B	$2,500	2B/3B	$2,700
3	Freddie Freeman	LEFT	0.377	0.225	0.324	1B	$3,300	1B	$4,400
4	Nick Markakis	LEFT	0.343	0.096	0.244	OF	$2,900	OF	$3,800
5	A.J. Pierzynski	LEFT	0.327	0.132	0.233	C	$2,200	C	$3,200
6	Kelly Johnson	LEFT	0.313	0.155	0.307	3B	$2,100	2B/OF	$3,100
7	Erick Aybar	SWITCH	0.275	0.068	0.177	SS	$2,200	SS	$2,800
8	Mike Foltynewicz	RIGHT	0.076	0.037	0.000	P	$6,300	P	$6,400
9	Mallex Smith	LEFT	0.380	0.234	0.383	OF	$2,900	OF	$3,800
	Team Averages	—	0.304	0.133	0.254	—	—	—	—

Elite Plays – NONE

Secondary Plays – Freddie Freeman

Stackability – NONE

Baltimore at Houston – 8:10 PM ET

Stats	wOBA	HR All.	K%	BB%	Stats	wOBA	HR All.	K%	BB%
Baltimore					Houston
			Tyler Wilson					Collin McHugh
			RIGHT					RIGHT
			Vegas Moneyline					Vegas Over/Under
			HOU -135					8.5
SP vs. Left	0.307	1	5.9%	8.8%	SP vs. Left	0.305	13	18.9%	6.7%
SP vs. Right	0.305	4	16.3%	4.7%	SP vs. Right	0.335	12	20.1%	5.5%

Pitcher Grind Down

Statistics	Starts	SIERA	ERA	K%	BB%	SS%	GB%	FB%	HH%
Tyler Wilson
				FanDuel			DraftKings
				Salary:		$7,200	Salary:		$5,500
				FPPG:		17.9	FPPG:		8.8
				Pitcher Rating:		46.8	Pitcher Rank:		21
L14 Days	2	5.90	4.85	9.4%	7.6%	4.3%	31.8%	50.0%	36.4%
2016	5	4.87	3.68	11.9%	6.6%	5.7%	45.1%	34.4%	27.9%
2015	5	5.08	3.50	8.7%	7.4%	5.2%	52.0%	30.1%	31.5%

Wilson has struggled so far this season, posting a 4.87 SIERA with a strikeout rate of only 11.9%. Anytime we see a strikeout rate this low, it makes that pitcher an automatic avoid in daily fantasy. While the Astros do strikeout at a high rate, they also have the seventh highest team ISO against right-handed pitching this season.

Statistics	Starts	SIERA	ERA	K%	BB%	SS%	GB%	FB%	HH%
Collin McHugh
				FanDuel			DraftKings
				Salary:		$7,600	Salary:		$7,100
				FPPG:		24.8	FPPG:		11.1
				Pitcher Rating:		65.1	Pitcher Rank:		13
L14 Days	2	4.19	4.15	17.9%	7.1%	11.3%	52.4%	35.7%	35.7%
2016	9	4.18	5.13	17.9%	5.7%	9.3%	42.9%	38.5%	25.5%
2015	32	3.91	3.89	19.9%	6.2%	10.3%	45.4%	34.6%	25.1%

McHugh hasn’t been nearly as sharp as he was a year ago. In nine starts this season, he has a 4.18 SIERA with a strikeout rate of 17.9%. I like his chances to pick up a win tonight (with potentially a lot of run support), but I don’t love him as a viable DFS option. This game features a high total and both of these offenses are expected to have some success in the hitter-friendly Minute Maid Park.

Batter Grind Down

Baltimore

The Orioles are one of the best offenses in baseball against right-handed pitching, ranking third in team wOBA and fourth in team ISO. They draw a mediocre matchup against Collin McHugh, who has allowed a .305 wOBA to left-handed hitters and a .335 wOBA to right-handed hitters over the last two seasons.

Orioles Offense (2016)
Team wOBA vs. RHP — 0.344 (3 of 30)
Team ISO vs. RHP — 0.192 (4 of 30)
Team K% vs. RHP — 21.9% (20 of 30)
Runs Per Game — 4.49 (10 of 30)
Projected Run Total — 4.04 (16 of 30)

Projected Lineup

#	Player	Bats	wOBA vs. RHP	ISO vs. RHP	wOBA L14	FD Position	FD Salary	DK Position	DK Salary
1	Joey Rickard	RIGHT	0.274	0.081	0.252	OF	$2,700	OF	$2,900
2	Manny Machado	RIGHT	0.391	0.256	0.254	SS	$3,700	3B/SS	$4,500
3	Adam Jones	RIGHT	0.337	0.202	0.360	OF	$2,800	OF	$3,600
4	Chris Davis	LEFT	0.401	0.329	0.382	1B	$3,800	1B	$4,100
5	Mark Trumbo	RIGHT	0.329	0.175	0.296	OF	$3,600	OF	$4,000
6	Matt Wieters	SWITCH	0.341	0.171	0.569	C	$3,100	C	$3,200
7	Pedro Alvarez	LEFT	0.332	0.229	0.253	3B	$2,800	1B	$2,900
8	Jonathan Schoop	RIGHT	0.366	0.250	0.410	2B	$3,100	2B	$3,600
9	Ryan Flaherty	LEFT	0.273	0.136	0.200	2B	$2,000	3B	$2,500
	Team Averages	—	0.338	0.203	0.331	—	—	—	—

Elite Plays – Manny Machado, Adam Jones (FD)

Secondary Plays – Chris Davis, Mark Trumbo, Matt Wieters

Stackability – GPP

Houston

Astros have the sixth highest team total on the board tonight. With Tyler Wilson having such a low strikeout rate, that should work to the advantage of the Astros’ hitters that tend to strikeout often. Typically, when the Astros put the ball in play, good things happen. Batters from both sides of the plate are in play tonight.

Astros Offense (2016)
Team wOBA vs. RHP — 0.316 (14 of 30)
Team ISO vs. RHP — 0.179 (7 of 30)
Team K% vs. RHP — 25.5% (28 of 30)
Runs Per Game — 4.02 (18 of 30)
Projected Run Total — 4.46 (6 of 30)

Projected Lineup

#	Player	Bats	wOBA vs. RHP	ISO vs. RHP	wOBA L14	FD Position	FD Salary	DK Position	DK Salary
1	George Springer	RIGHT	0.344	0.170	0.399	OF	$3,700	OF	$4,700
2	Jose Altuve	RIGHT	0.340	0.163	0.334	2B	$4,300	2B	$5,400
3	Carlos Correa	RIGHT	0.359	0.204	0.248	SS	$3,900	SS	$4,400
4	Colby Rasmus	LEFT	0.333	0.236	0.274	OF	$3,400	OF	$3,900
5	Evan Gattis	RIGHT	0.316	0.217	0.435	C	$3,000	OF	$4,000
6	Jason Castro	LEFT	0.328	0.201	0.373	C	$3,000	C	$3,400
7	Colin Moran	LEFT	0.053	0.000	0.053	3B	$2,200	3B	$2,000
8	Luis Valbuena	LEFT	0.335	0.215	0.297	3B	$2,400	3B	$3,400
9	Tony Kemp	LEFT	0.402	0.300	0.341	OF	$2,300	2B	$2,000
	Team Averages	—	0.312	0.190	0.306	—	—	—	—

Elite Plays – George Springer, Jose Altuve, Colby Rasmus

Secondary Plays – Carlos Correa, Evan Gattis, Jason Castro, Luis Valbuena

Stackability – Cash & GPP

Cincinnati at LA Dodgers – 10:10 PM ET

Stats	wOBA	HR All.	K%	BB%	Stats	wOBA	HR All.	K%	BB%
Cincinnati					LA Dodgers
			Dan Straily					Scott Kazmir
			RIGHT					LEFT
			Vegas Moneyline					Vegas Over/Under
			LAD -165					7.5
SP vs. Left	0.295	3	14.7%	15.4%	SP vs. Left	0.332	10	15.1%	5.6%
SP vs. Right	0.305	4	25.8%	6.8%	SP vs. Right	0.299	22	22.3%	8.8%

Pitcher Grind Down

Statistics	Starts	SIERA	ERA	K%	BB%	SS%	GB%	FB%	HH%
Dan Straily
				FanDuel			DraftKings
				Salary:		$6,700	Salary:		$6,800
				FPPG:		24.4	FPPG:		13.0
				Pitcher Rating:		43.5	Pitcher Rank:		23
L14 Days	3	4.66	1.59	20.0%	12.0%	8.4%	50.0%	37.0%	24.0%
2016	7	4.55	2.85	20.6%	11.6%	10.7%	40.8%	40.0%	29.0%
2015	3	4.67	5.40	18.4%	10.5%	9.6%	41.5%	37.7%	28.3%

Straily may have a 2.85 ERA on the season, but his 4.55 SIERA suggests some serious regression moving forward. He is walking way too many batters and he is giving up a lot of fly-balls, which will eventually turn into a higher home run rate. Even though the Dodgers’ offense has been scuffling recently, Straily can be avoided in all league formats. He is a large underdog on the road.

Statistics	Starts	SIERA	ERA	K%	BB%	SS%	GB%	FB%	HH%
Scott Kazmir
				FanDuel			DraftKings
				Salary:		$8,600	Salary:		$7,900
				FPPG:		27.2	FPPG:		13.3
				Pitcher Rating:		77.7	Pitcher Rank:		4
L14 Days	3	4.85	4.50	20.2%	13.5%	10.4%	45.5%	32.7%	17.5%
2016	9	4.17	5.23	21.1%	8.8%	9.8%	42.8%	38.2%	21.9%
2015	31	4.10	3.10	20.3%	7.7%	10.3%	42.9%	37.3%	25.7%

Kazmir grades out as one of the best pitching options in the slate tonight. That says a lot more about the other options than it does about Kazmir. He is one of those pitchers that you never feel truly confident in. His season has been a disappointment thus far, posting a 4.17 SIERA with a strikeout rate of 21.1%. Even though I like him tonight, there are still red flags. The Reds are actually a good offense against left-handed pitching, ranking eighth in team wOBA and fourth in team strikeout rate this season.

Batter Grind Down

Cincinnati

While the Reds have solid numbers against southpaws as a whole, Vegas does not like their offense tonight. They come into the game with the second lowest team total on the board. While Scott Kazmir hasn’t been great, he has held right-handed hitters to a .299 wOBA over the last two seasons.

Reds Offense (2016)
Team wOBA vs. LHP — 0.332 (8 of 30)
Team ISO vs. LHP — 0.159 (10 of 30)
Team K% vs. LHP — 18.3% (4 of 30)
Runs Per Game — 3.91 (24 of 30)
Projected Run Total — 3.37 (29 of 30)

Projected Lineup

#	Player	Bats	wOBA vs. LHP	ISO vs. LHP	wOBA L14	FD Position	FD Salary	DK Position	DK Salary
1	Zack Cozart	RIGHT	0.381	0.238	0.284	SS	$3,900	SS	$3,500
2	Billy Hamilton	SWITCH	0.297	0.142	0.240	OF	$3,000	OF	$3,600
3	Joey Votto	LEFT	0.396	0.179	0.250	1B	$3,500	1B	$3,400
4	Brandon Phillips	RIGHT	0.321	0.111	0.177	2B	$2,700	2B	$2,900
5	Jay Bruce	LEFT	0.290	0.145	0.428	OF	$3,400	OF	$3,600
6	Adam Duvall	RIGHT	0.311	0.152	0.355	OF	$3,000	OF	$3,100
7	Eugenio Suarez	RIGHT	0.378	0.219	0.251	3B	$2,700	3B	$3,900
8	Tucker Barnhart	SWITCH	0.237	0.060	0.213	C	$2,100	C	$2,000
9	Dan Straily	RIGHT	0.172	0.000	0.230	P	$6,700	P	$6,800
	Team Averages	—	0.309	0.138	0.270	—	—	—	—

Elite Plays – NONE

Secondary Plays – Zack Cozart, Joey Votto

Stackability – NONE

LA Dodgers

The Dodgers’ offense came alive in last night’s win over the Reds. They will look to keep it going tonight against Dan Straily, who hasn’t pitched as well as his low ERA would suggest. The Dodgers are cheap across the industry and I am high on the left-handed bats in their lineup tonight.

Dodgers Offense (2016)
Team wOBA vs. RHP — 0.303 (24 of 30)
Team ISO vs. RHP — 0.134 (25 of 30)
Team K% vs. RHP — 19.8% (15 of 30)
Runs Per Game — 4.24 (14 of 30)
Projected Run Total — 4.13 (14 of 30)

Projected Lineup

#	Player	Bats	wOBA vs. RHP	ISO vs. RHP	wOBA L14	FD Position	FD Salary	DK Position	DK Salary
1	Chase Utley	LEFT	0.316	0.143	0.328	2B	$3,000	2B	$3,700
2	Corey Seager	LEFT	0.365	0.188	0.376	SS	$4,100	SS	$4,300
3	Justin Turner	RIGHT	0.356	0.175	0.300	3B	$2,600	3B	$3,100
4	Adrian Gonzalez	LEFT	0.353	0.205	0.312	1B	$3,000	1B	$3,800
5	Trayce Thompson	RIGHT	0.375	0.219	0.439	OF	$3,000	OF	$3,300
6	Joc Pederson	LEFT	0.357	0.227	0.346	OF	$3,100	OF	$4,000
7	Yasiel Puig	RIGHT	0.302	0.142	0.304	OF	$2,700	OF	$3,800
8	Yasmani Grandal	SWITCH	0.319	0.176	0.166	C	$2,400	C	$3,100
9	Scott Kazmir	LEFT	0.160	0.000	0.177	P	$8,600	P	$7,900
	Team Averages	—	0.323	0.164	0.305	—	—	—	—

Elite Plays – Adrian Gonzalez

Secondary Plays – Chase Utley, Corey Seager, Justin Turner, Joc Pederson

Stackability – Cash

Oakland at Seattle – 10:10 PM ET

Stats	wOBA	HR All.	K%	BB%	Stats	wOBA	HR All.	K%	BB%
Oakland					Seattle
			Zach Neal					Hisashi Iwakuma
			RIGHT					RIGHT
			Vegas Moneyline					Vegas Over/Under
			SEA -190					8.0
SP vs. Left	0.412	1	20.0%	0.0%	SP vs. Left	0.309	9	20.4%	4.9%
SP vs. Right	0.378	0	12.5%	0.0%	SP vs. Right	0.301	15	20.6%	5.2%

Pitcher Grind Down

Statistics	Starts	SIERA	ERA	K%	BB%	SS%	GB%	FB%	HH%
Zach Neal
				FanDuel			DraftKings
				Salary:		$5,000	Salary:		$4,800
				FPPG:		6.0	FPPG:		2.4
				Pitcher Rating:		42.0	Pitcher Rank:		24
L14 Days	0	3.65	9.00	15.4%	0.0%	7.7%	36.4%	36.4%	36.4%
2016	0	3.65	9.00	15.4%	0.0%	7.7%	36.4%	36.4%	36.4%

Neal is making his first major league start tonight. He made one relief appearance out of the bullpen, but this will be his first start. He has pitched well in the minor leagues, but he has not gotten many outs by way of the strikeout. In his last 34 minor league starts, his strikeout rate is under 15%. That’s not likely going to change now that he is in the majors. He should be avoided tonight against the Mariners.

Statistics	Starts	SIERA	ERA	K%	BB%	SS%	GB%	FB%	HH%
Hisashi Iwakuma
				FanDuel			DraftKings
				Salary:		$8,600	Salary:		$7,500
				FPPG:		26.8	FPPG:		13.1
				Pitcher Rating:		78.7	Pitcher Rank:		3
L14 Days	2	5.07	5.11	14.6%	7.3%	6.9%	32.5%	50.0%	30.2%
2016	9	4.27	4.39	18.4%	7.1%	8.9%	42.1%	36.3%	27.4%
2015	20	3.36	3.54	21.5%	4.1%	10.6%	50.4%	31.1%	26.9%

Iwakuma should be a popular pitching target tonight. He is a large favorite, he is pitching at home, and he has shown nice strikeout potential in the past. The main concern with Iwakuma is his form. He has struggled in his last two starts and his strikeout rate is down 3% from where it was a year ago. As I mentioned earlier, there are red flags with every pitching option available tonight, so it’s basically just pick your poison.

Batter Grind Down

Oakland

The A’s may not strikeout at a high rate, but they have a bottom five offense against right-handed pitching this season. They come into tonight’s game with the fourth lowest team total on the board. Hisashi Iwakuma has not been in great form, but I still don’t want to actively target hitters against him. Stephen Vogt is the one batter that stands out tonight, as he is a bit too cheap on both FanDuel and DraftKings.

Athletics Offense (2016)
Team wOBA vs. RHP — 0.297 (26 of 30)
Team ISO vs. RHP — 0.137 (24 of 30)
Team K% vs. RHP — 18.6% (6 of 30)
Runs Per Game — 3.87 (25 of 30)
Projected Run Total — 3.48 (27 of 30)

Projected Lineup

#	Player	Bats	wOBA vs. RHP	ISO vs. RHP	wOBA L14	FD Position	FD Salary	DK Position	DK Salary
1	Coco Crisp	SWITCH	0.268	0.121	0.289	OF	$2,800	OF	$3,100
2	Billy Burns	SWITCH	0.300	0.086	0.280	OF	$3,300	OF	$3,700
3	Stephen Vogt	LEFT	0.343	0.196	0.291	C	$2,300	C	$3,000
4	Danny Valencia	RIGHT	0.358	0.232	0.436	3B	$2,900	3B	$3,500
5	Khris Davis	RIGHT	0.347	0.258	0.366	OF	$2,900	OF	$3,600
6	Yonder Alonso	LEFT	0.318	0.106	0.245	1B	$2,400	1B	$2,800
7	Marcus Semien	RIGHT	0.291	0.152	0.314	SS	$2,500	SS	$2,800
8	Chris Coghlan	LEFT	0.332	0.200	0.141	3B	$2,000	2B/3B	$2,600
9	Jake Smolinski	RIGHT	0.207	0.117	0.156	OF	$2,100	OF	$2,100
	Team Averages	—	0.307	0.163	0.280	—	—	—	—

Elite Plays – Stephen Vogt

Secondary Plays – NONE

Stackability – NONE

Seattle

The Mariners are an interesting team to stack in both cash games and tournaments. They have the fifth highest team total on the board and they are facing a pitcher that is making his first career major league start.

Mariners Offense (2016)
Team wOBA vs. RHP — 0.325 (10 of 30)
Team ISO vs. RHP — 0.165 (12 of 30)
Team K% vs. RHP — 19.7% (13 of 30)
Runs Per Game — 4.57 (9 of 30)
Projected Run Total — 4.52 (5 of 30)

Projected Lineup

#	Player	Bats	wOBA vs. RHP	ISO vs. RHP	wOBA L14	FD Position	FD Salary	DK Position	DK Salary
1	Leonys Martin	LEFT	0.302	0.157	0.512	OF	$3,800	OF	$4,200
2	Seth Smith	LEFT	0.344	0.187	0.331	OF	$2,800	OF	$3,900
3	Robinson Cano	LEFT	0.370	0.212	0.332	2B	$4,300	2B	$5,300
4	Nelson Cruz	RIGHT	0.370	0.225	0.442	OF	$4,400	OF	$5,200
5	Kyle Seager	LEFT	0.338	0.184	0.372	3B	$4,000	3B	$4,800
6	Adam Lind	LEFT	0.347	0.186	0.300	1B	$2,300	1B	$4,100
7	Chris Iannetta	RIGHT	0.254	0.130	0.325	C	$2,400	C	$3,200
8	Shawn O’Malley	SWITCH	0.335	0.125	0.216	OF	$2,100	OF	$3,200
9	Norichika Aoki	LEFT	0.318	0.110	0.289	OF	$3,200	OF	$3,900
	Team Averages	—	0.331	0.168	0.347	—	—	—	—

MLB Grind Down: Wednesday, May 25th - Page Three

Miami at Tampa Bay – 7:10 PM ET

Pitcher Grind Down

Batter Grind Down

Miami

Projected Lineup

Elite Plays – Giancarlo Stanton

Secondary Plays – Ichiro Suzuki, Derek Dietrich

Stackability – NONE

Tampa Bay

Projected Lineup

Elite Plays – Brandon Guyer, Evan Longoria, Steve Pearce

Secondary Plays – Mikie Mahtook, Steven Souza, Taylor Motter

Stackability – Cash & GPP

Milwaukee at Atlanta – 7:10 PM ET

Pitcher Grind Down

Batter Grind Down

Milwaukee

Projected Lineup

Elite Plays – NONE

Secondary Plays – Jonathan Villar, Scooter Gennett, Ryan Braun, Jonathan Lucroy

Stackability – NONE

Atlanta

Projected Lineup

Elite Plays – NONE

Secondary Plays – Freddie Freeman

Stackability – NONE

Baltimore at Houston – 8:10 PM ET

Pitcher Grind Down

Batter Grind Down

Baltimore

Projected Lineup

Elite Plays – Manny Machado, Adam Jones (FD)

Secondary Plays – Chris Davis, Mark Trumbo, Matt Wieters

Stackability – GPP

Houston

Projected Lineup

Elite Plays – George Springer, Jose Altuve, Colby Rasmus

Secondary Plays – Carlos Correa, Evan Gattis, Jason Castro, Luis Valbuena

Stackability – Cash & GPP

Cincinnati at LA Dodgers – 10:10 PM ET

Pitcher Grind Down

Batter Grind Down

Cincinnati

Projected Lineup

Elite Plays – NONE

Secondary Plays – Zack Cozart, Joey Votto

Stackability – NONE

LA Dodgers

Projected Lineup

Elite Plays – Adrian Gonzalez

Secondary Plays – Chase Utley, Corey Seager, Justin Turner, Joc Pederson

Stackability – Cash

Oakland at Seattle – 10:10 PM ET

Pitcher Grind Down

Batter Grind Down

Oakland

Projected Lineup

Elite Plays – Stephen Vogt

Secondary Plays – NONE

Stackability – NONE

Seattle

Projected Lineup

Elite Plays – Leonys Martin, Robinson Cano, Nelson Cruz

Secondary Plays – Seth Smith, Kyle Seager, Adam Lind

Stackability – Cash & GPP

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