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MLB Grind Down: Wednesday, September 13th

by Derek Farnsworth (Notorious) Last Updated 2017-09-14 01:48:21

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The RotoGrinders MLB Grind Down will give you an in-depth analysis into the upcoming MLB schedule. This article will break down the numbers for every single game and give you analysis on which trends you can exploit. While matchups are a major factor in daily fantasy baseball, there are plenty of other factors to consider such as injuries, weather, and salaries.

The analysis should point you in the right direction, but it is still up to you to decipher the information and make your own selections. No sport has more variance than baseball. The best choice is not always the right choice but following the trends will win you money over time.

Note: As always, if you want to try a new DFS site, be sure to click through a RotoGrinders link and use our DraftKings promo code, FanDuel promo code, and FantasyDraft promo code to receive the best perks in the industry.

Stackability Rating System:

GREEN – A viable full stack in cash games and GPPs.
YELLOW – A viable mini-stack in cash games and full stack in GPPs.
ORANGE – A viable stack in large field GPPs.
RED – Not a recommended stack for cash games or GPPs.

Atlanta at Washington – 7:05 PM ET

Atlanta Washington
atlantamlb Luiz Gohara washingtonmlb Max Scherzer
LEFT RIGHT
Vegas Moneyline Vegas Over/Under
WAS-340 8.0
Stats wOBA xwOBA HC% BB% K% GB% Stats wOBA xwOBA HC% BB% K% GB%
SP vs. Left (2016-17) 0.214 20.0% 11.1% 33.3% 40.0% SP vs. Left (2016-17) 0.309 0.288 28.0% 8.7% 26.0% 32.6%
SP vs. Right (2016-17) 0.648 20.0% 27.3% 27.3% 50.0% SP vs. Right (2016-17) 0.176 0.183 25.5% 4.3% 44.6% 44.7%

Pitcher Grind Down

Luiz Gohara
luiz-gohara-300x200 FanDuel DraftKings FantasyDraft
Salary: $5,900 Salary: $4,900 Salary: $9,600
Salary Rank: 26 of 30 Salary Rank: 30 of 30 Salary Rank: 24 of 30
Stats Starts SIERA ERA K% BB% GB% HC% SC%
2017 1 5.24 13.50 30.0% 20.0% 44.4% 20.0% 30.0%
L30 1 5.24 13.50 30.0% 20.0% 44.4% 20.0% 30.0%

If you were looking for analysis on the early slate, I sincerely apologize. I wrote up each of the three games last night and then forgot to hit publish. By the time I realized it, the games had already started. So, if you want to yell at me, feel free to post an angry GIF in the comments below.

Gohara is making his second career major league start tonight against the Nationals. He has shown some major upside in the minors, posting a 31% strikeout rate in seven Triple-A starts. The high strikeout rate was accompanied with a high walk rate though. He walked four batters in four innings in his major league debut. Given the fact that he’s on the road and facing a talented Nationals’ offense, I will be taking a wait and see approach.

Quick Breakdown: Avoid Gohara in both cash games and tournaments.

Max Scherzer
max-scherzer-300x200 FanDuel DraftKings FantasyDraft
Salary: $10,800 Salary: $13,400 Salary: $26,100
Salary Rank: 1 of 30 Salary Rank: 1 of 30 Salary Rank: 1 of 30
Stats Starts SIERA ERA K% BB% GB% HC% SC%
2016 34 3.05 2.96 31.5% 6.2% 33.0% 30.1% 22.2%
2017 27 2.90 2.32 34.7% 6.7% 37.6% 27.0% 20.4%
L30 4 3.59 2.88 29.6% 8.2% 33.9% 20.3% 23.7%

Scherzer is the top pitching option on the board tonight and it’s not even close. He struggled a bit in his last outing, but still owns a 2.90 SIERA with a strikeout rate of 35% on the season. He typically has great command and he’s always been matchup proof, especially when pitching in this ballpark. He has a great track record against the Braves and I expect that to continue tonight in a game where he is a -340 favorite.

Quick Breakdown: Scherzer is an elite play in all formats.

Batter Grind Down

Atlanta

The Braves are the easiest fade on the board. They draw an awful matchup against Max Scherzer, who has an elite strikeout rate and an elite SIERA. He has also held both left and right-handed hitters under a .290 xwOBA and under a 28% hard contact rate this season.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

# Player Bats wOBA xwOBA ISO HC% BB% K% GB% FD Pos. FD Sal. DK Pos. DK Sal. FDRFT Pos. FDRFT Sal.
1 Ender Inciarte LEFT 0.333 0.288 0.112 24.1% 6.6% 14.4% 42.4% OF $2,900 OF $3,300 CF $6,400
2 Ozzie Albies SWITCH 0.305 0.285 0.119 33.0% 7.4% 19.0% 43.0% 2B $2,900 2B $2,900 2B $5,700
3 Freddie Freeman LEFT 0.443 0.434 0.309 37.6% 14.6% 15.0% 34.4% 1B $3,500 1B/3B $3,800 1B $7,500
4 Matt Kemp RIGHT 0.344 0.345 0.210 35.6% 4.1% 23.0% 48.0% OF $2,200 OF $3,000 LF $6,000
5 Nick Markakis LEFT 0.328 0.342 0.113 35.4% 11.7% 17.0% 45.9% OF $2,800 OF $3,200 RF $6,300
6 Tyler Flowers RIGHT 0.361 0.343 0.176 39.9% 6.6% 22.6% 39.3% C $2,400 C $3,000 C $6,000
7 Rio Ruiz LEFT 0.242 0.314 0.088 28.4% 8.8% 25.4% 64.9% 3B $2,000 3B $2,800 3B $5,600
8 Dansby Swanson RIGHT 0.273 0.292 0.092 28.1% 11.2% 22.1% 50.4% SS $2,700 SS $2,900 SS $5,700
9 Luiz Gohara LEFT 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.0% 0.0% 100.0% 0.0% P $5,900 P $4,900 P $9,600

Elite Plays – None

Secondary Plays – None

Stackability – RED

Washington

When it comes to young pitchers, we never quite know what we are going to get. Luiz Gohara has shown massive strikeout potential in the minors, but he’s pitching on the road against a talented Nationals’ offense. We don’t have a big enough sample to work with when it comes to splits, but we know that Gohara is a southpaw that can struggle with his command at times. Load up on the right-handed bats in both cash games and tournaments.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. LH Pitching)

# Player Bats wOBA xwOBA ISO HC% BB% K% GB% FD Pos. FD Sal. DK Pos. DK Sal. FDRFT Pos. FDRFT Sal.
1 Trea Turner RIGHT 0.238 0.254 0.068 25.0% 7.5% 17.5% 54.2% SS $4,400 SS $5,500 IF/OF $10,800
2 Wilmer Difo SWITCH 0.405 0.362 0.225 31.0% 6.5% 18.2% 47.2% SS $2,900 2B/SS $3,400 2B $6,600
3 Anthony Rendon RIGHT 0.455 0.425 0.318 38.2% 17.0% 11.3% 31.6% 3B $3,600 3B $4,900 3B $9,600
4 Ryan Zimmerman RIGHT 0.420 0.406 0.324 43.2% 9.5% 15.1% 44.2% 1B $3,200 1B $4,300 1B $8,400
5 Howie Kendrick RIGHT 0.405 0.420 0.218 39.1% 10.3% 16.1% 50.0% OF $3,600 2B/OF $4,500 IF/OF $8,700
6 Jayson Werth RIGHT 0.341 0.386 0.143 21.7% 24.3% 13.5% 39.1% OF $2,600 OF $3,100 LF $6,000
7 Michael Taylor RIGHT 0.373 0.342 0.219 35.2% 6.4% 24.4% 50.0% OF $3,500 OF $4,400 CF $8,700
8 Jose Lobaton SWITCH 0.170 0.181 0.028 12.9% 2.7% 13.5% 50.0% C $2,100 C $2,400 C $4,800
9 Max Scherzer RIGHT 0.282 0.429 66.7% 0.0% 57.1% 33.3% P $10,800 P $13,400 P $26,100

Elite Plays – Trea Turner, Anthony Rendon, Ryan Zimmerman

Secondary Plays – Wilmer Difo, Howie Kendrick, Daniel Murphy

Stackability – YELLOW / GREEN

Miami at Philadelphia – 7:05 PM ET

Miami Philadelphia
miamimlb Dan Straily philadelphiamlb Aaron Nola
RIGHT RIGHT
Vegas Moneyline Vegas Over/Under
PHI-108 8.5
Stats wOBA xwOBA HC% BB% K% GB% Stats wOBA xwOBA HC% BB% K% GB%
SP vs. Left (2016-17) 0.296 0.273 28.1% 8.3% 22.4% 35.5% SP vs. Left (2016-17) 0.315 0.295 33.8% 9.2% 22.5% 46.5%
SP vs. Right (2016-17) 0.340 0.312 36.8% 6.0% 20.7% 32.6% SP vs. Right (2016-17) 0.283 0.261 27.4% 5.0% 28.1% 53.1%

Pitcher Grind Down

Dan Straily
dan-straily-300x200 FanDuel DraftKings FantasyDraft
Salary: $7,800 Salary: $8,600 Salary: $16,800
Salary Rank: 14 of 30 Salary Rank: 9 of 30 Salary Rank: 7 of 30
Stats Starts SIERA ERA K% BB% GB% HC% SC%
2016 31 4.67 3.76 20.5% 9.2% 32.0% 32.2% 14.8%
2017 29 4.45 3.95 21.6% 7.1% 34.1% 32.5% 20.0%
L30 5 4.79 5.00 21.4% 9.4% 32.5% 25.0% 17.5%

Straily isn’t a great pitcher, but he always has some fantasy appeal thanks to an above-average strikeout rate. While the Phillies are a favorable matchup, I always worry about fly-ball pitchers in this home run-friendly ballpark. On the season, Straily has a low ground ball rate of 34% and a relatively high hard contact rate of 33%. I like the strikeout upside here, but I also worry about Straily giving up a couple of home runs.

Quick Breakdown: Straily is best suited for tournaments in this ballpark.

Aaron Nola
aaron-nola-300x200 FanDuel DraftKings FantasyDraft
Salary: $8,300 Salary: $9,100 Salary: $17,700
Salary Rank: 10 of 30 Salary Rank: 7 of 30 Salary Rank: 5 of 30
Stats Starts SIERA ERA K% BB% GB% HC% SC%
2016 20 3.29 4.78 25.1% 6.0% 55.2% 28.8% 23.2%
2017 24 3.71 3.71 25.4% 7.0% 49.9% 30.5% 22.5%
L30 6 3.58 5.55 25.3% 6.5% 51.5% 30.8% 19.2%

Nola does everything right that I like to see from a pitcher. He has an above-average strikeout rate, a high ground ball rate, and he induces a lot of soft and medium contact. He draws a mediocre matchup tonight against the Marlins, who are ranked right around the league average in both team wOBA and strikeout rate against right-handed pitching this season. Of the two pitchers in this one, I slightly prefer Nola over Dan Straily, even though he’s a little more expensive.

Quick Breakdown: Nola is one of my favorite tournament plays in the slate on multi-pitcher sites.

Batter Grind Down

Miami

The Marlins see a favorable ballpark bump playing in Citizens Bank Park, but they draw a difficult matchup against Aaron Nola. In addition to the above-average strikeout and ground ball rates, he has held both left and right-handed hitters under a .295 xwOBA. In a slate that features some truly exploitable matchups, I will be avoiding the Marlins’ offense completely.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

# Player Bats wOBA xwOBA ISO HC% BB% K% GB% FD Pos. FD Sal. DK Pos. DK Sal. FDRFT Pos. FDRFT Sal.
1 Dee Gordon LEFT 0.317 0.259 0.076 18.1% 5.2% 14.1% 54.6% 2B $4,000 2B $3,900 2B $7,600
2 Giancarlo Stanton RIGHT 0.397 0.385 0.337 37.3% 10.6% 26.4% 42.5% OF $4,700 OF $5,600 RF $10,800
3 Christian Yelich LEFT 0.365 0.367 0.169 37.9% 12.5% 19.4% 55.0% OF $3,900 OF $4,200 CF $8,000
4 Marcell Ozuna RIGHT 0.390 0.364 0.263 40.6% 9.1% 22.4% 44.6% OF $3,700 OF $4,300 LF $8,400
5 Justin Bour LEFT 0.365 0.392 0.245 45.9% 11.3% 21.5% 39.9% 1B $3,200 1B $3,700 1B $7,200
6 J.T. Realmuto RIGHT 0.318 0.323 0.159 32.0% 5.0% 18.1% 49.7% C $2,900 C $3,500 C $6,800
7 Derek Dietrich LEFT 0.304 0.309 0.174 34.7% 7.4% 21.7% 36.0% 3B $3,100 3B $3,000 3B $6,000
8 Miguel Rojas RIGHT 0.283 0.294 0.031 18.9% 7.8% 11.1% 52.5% SS $2,400 SS $2,600 2B $5,200
9 Dan Straily RIGHT 0.064 0.099 0.000 14.3% 2.3% 50.0% 86.7% P $7,800 P $8,600 P $16,800

Elite Plays – None

Secondary Plays – None

Stackability – RED

Philadelphia

The Phillies draw a decent matchup against Dan Straily. If they can avoid striking out a bunch of times (which is a big if for this offense), they should have some success against a fly-ball pitcher in a home run-friendly ballpark. In terms of splits, Straily has allowed a higher xwOBA (.312) and hard contact rate (37%) to right-handed hitters. Rhys Hoskins hit two more home runs last night and should be on everyone’s radar tonight.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

# Player Bats wOBA xwOBA ISO HC% BB% K% GB% FD Pos. FD Sal. DK Pos. DK Sal. FDRFT Pos. FDRFT Sal.
1 Cesar Hernandez SWITCH 0.338 0.302 0.106 21.9% 10.0% 20.6% 49.0% 2B $3,500 2B $3,700 2B $7,200
2 Freddy Galvis SWITCH 0.305 0.290 0.143 27.6% 8.1% 19.3% 35.3% SS $3,000 SS $2,900 SS $5,600
3 Nick Williams LEFT 0.350 0.328 0.212 40.0% 6.9% 27.7% 50.8% OF $3,900 OF $3,100 LF $6,000
4 Rhys Hoskins RIGHT 0.433 0.360 0.333 44.4% 12.4% 21.6% 28.6% OF $4,100 1B/OF $4,700 1B $9,300
5 Maikel Franco RIGHT 0.293 0.305 0.169 28.9% 6.4% 15.4% 44.1% 3B $3,000 3B $3,600 3B $7,200
6 Aaron Altherr RIGHT 0.384 0.332 0.242 38.6% 7.1% 29.3% 39.3% OF $3,100 OF $3,500 LF $6,900
7 Jorge Alfaro RIGHT 0.394 0.301 0.143 21.2% 0.0% 30.8% 57.6% C $2,700 C $2,700 C $5,200
8 J.P. Crawford LEFT 0.176 0.159 0.059 9.1% 0.0% 35.3% 45.5% SS $2,200 3B/SS $2,500 SS $4,800
9 Aaron Nola RIGHT 0.119 0.136 0.000 0.0% 10.3% 51.3% 76.9% P $8,300 P $9,100 P $17,700

Elite Plays – Rhys Hoskins

Secondary Plays – Cesar Hernandez, Freddy Galvis, Nick Williams, Aaron Altherr

Stackability – YELLOW

Baltimore at Toronto – 7:07 PM ET

Baltimore Toronto
baltimoremlb Kevin Gausman torontomlb Marcus Stroman
RIGHT RIGHT
Vegas Moneyline Vegas Over/Under
TOR-110 8.5
Stats wOBA xwOBA HC% BB% K% GB% Stats wOBA xwOBA HC% BB% K% GB%
SP vs. Left (2016-17) 0.366 0.355 31.8% 13.0% 19.7% 40.4% SP vs. Left (2016-17) 0.296 0.315 31.7% 8.1% 18.8% 65.2%
SP vs. Right (2016-17) 0.352 0.337 33.1% 6.7% 22.3% 43.3% SP vs. Right (2016-17) 0.321 0.305 30.9% 6.1% 21.1% 57.7%

Pitcher Grind Down

Kevin Gausman
kevin-gausman-300x200 FanDuel DraftKings FantasyDraft
Salary: $8,500 Salary: $8,200 Salary: $15,900
Salary Rank: 8 of 30 Salary Rank: 12 of 30 Salary Rank: 9 of 30
Stats Starts SIERA ERA K% BB% GB% HC% SC%
2016 30 3.81 3.61 23.0% 6.2% 44.1% 31.1% 18.3%
2017 30 4.59 4.99 21.2% 9.4% 42.2% 32.6% 18.4%
L30 5 4.66 3.90 21.9% 10.1% 40.7% 23.5% 18.5%

Gausman has been on quite the roller coaster this season. There have been more downs than ups, but he has shown life since the All-Star break. Unfortunately, his form has been slipping in his last five starts where he has a 4.66 SIERA and a walk rate of 10%. For him to be effective, he needs to get ahead early in counts. When that’s not happening, he is susceptible to giving up those big innings that kill his fantasy production. I’m not completely against a matchup against the Blue Jays, but there are better pitching options in the slate.

Quick Breakdown: Gausman could be worth a look as a GPP flier, but he’s not a core play tonight in Toronto.

Marcus Stroman
marcus-stroman-300x200 FanDuel DraftKings FantasyDraft
Salary: $8,100 Salary: $7,700 Salary: $15,200
Salary Rank: 12 of 30 Salary Rank: 14 of 30 Salary Rank: 11 of 30
Stats Starts SIERA ERA K% BB% GB% HC% SC%
2016 32 3.62 4.37 19.4% 6.3% 60.1% 31.8% 18.3%
2017 29 3.81 3.18 20.0% 7.0% 61.2% 31.3% 20.6%
L30 5 3.56 4.26 22.2% 4.6% 51.9% 40.5% 16.5%

Stroman is extremely cheap tonight across the industry. He doesn’t boast an elite strikeout rate, but he does have an elite ground ball rate that is accompanied by an average k-rate. If you’ve ever read the Grind Down before, then you know I love ground ball pitchers with good command and decent strikeout rates. Dollar for dollar, he’s one of my favorite SP2s tonight, especially on DraftKings where is he only $7,700. He draws a favorable matchup against a right-handed heavy Orioles’ offense. On the season, Stroman has held righties to a .305 xwOBA with a 21% strikeout rate.

Quick Breakdown: Stroman is a viable SP2 in both cash games and tournaments.

Batter Grind Down

Baltimore

The Orioles draw a difficult matchup tonight against Marcus Stroman. In addition to his elite ground ball rate (62%), he has held both left and right-handed hitters under a .315 xwOBA and under a 32% hard contact rate. Baltimore has struggled against Stroman in the past, combining for a .286 wOBA in 142 plate appearances.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

# Player Bats wOBA xwOBA ISO HC% BB% K% GB% FD Pos. FD Sal. DK Pos. DK Sal. FDRFT Pos. FDRFT Sal.
1 Tim Beckham RIGHT 0.344 0.317 0.177 41.0% 5.3% 29.1% 47.7% SS $3,400 SS $3,800 SS $7,500
2 Manny Machado RIGHT 0.341 0.364 0.221 37.9% 7.9% 16.5% 43.1% 3B $4,200 3B $4,900 3B $9,600
3 Jonathan Schoop RIGHT 0.358 0.312 0.200 33.5% 4.3% 20.5% 40.9% 2B $3,500 2B $3,800 2B $7,600
4 Adam Jones RIGHT 0.336 0.310 0.195 31.2% 3.4% 17.8% 44.5% OF $3,200 OF $3,900 CF $7,600
5 Trey Mancini RIGHT 0.369 0.348 0.238 35.5% 6.5% 22.9% 51.8% OF $3,300 1B/OF $3,200 IF/OF $6,400
6 Chris Davis LEFT 0.326 0.341 0.258 45.1% 11.9% 35.0% 35.6% 1B $3,300 1B $3,500 IF/OF $6,800
7 Mark Trumbo RIGHT 0.289 0.303 0.162 31.2% 7.5% 24.5% 43.3% OF $3,100 OF $3,100 IF/OF $6,000
8 Seth Smith LEFT 0.339 0.350 0.179 36.9% 9.7% 21.2% 42.8% OF $2,100 OF $3,300 LF $6,600
9 Caleb Joseph RIGHT 0.303 0.268 0.145 26.2% 3.9% 26.1% 45.6% C $2,300 C $2,900 C $5,700

Elite Plays – None

Secondary Plays – None

Stackability – RED

Toronto

The Blue Jays draw a boom or bust matchup against Kevin Gausman, who can be great at times, but can also be very hittable. On the season, Gausman has allowed a .355 xwOBA to left-handed hitters and a .337 xwOBA to right-handed hitters. This isn’t an offense that I want to stack in tournaments, but Richard Urena provides good value batting leadoff. Justin Smoak, Josh Donaldson, and Kendrys Morales always provide home run upside as one-off targets.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

# Player Bats wOBA xwOBA ISO HC% BB% K% GB% FD Pos. FD Sal. DK Pos. DK Sal. FDRFT Pos. FDRFT Sal.
1 Richard Urena SWITCH 0.353 0.304 0.250 8.3% 11.1% 22.2% 63.6% SS $2,500 SS $2,700 SS $5,200
2 Josh Donaldson RIGHT 0.384 0.377 0.265 33.0% 15.8% 23.8% 41.2% 3B $3,700 3B $4,500 3B $8,800
3 Justin Smoak SWITCH 0.362 0.384 0.277 40.7% 10.2% 22.7% 34.2% 1B $2,900 1B $4,300 1B $8,400
4 Jose Bautista RIGHT 0.314 0.325 0.184 35.0% 13.1% 23.8% 35.0% OF $3,700 OF $3,900 RF $7,800
5 Kendrys Morales SWITCH 0.295 0.355 0.197 36.6% 7.0% 22.0% 47.7% 1B $3,200 1B $3,600 1B $7,200
6 Kevin Pillar RIGHT 0.277 0.295 0.128 26.3% 4.7% 15.2% 45.2% OF $3,100 OF $3,500 CF $6,800
7 Russell Martin RIGHT 0.341 0.333 0.167 27.7% 14.3% 22.1% 53.5% C $2,500 C $3,300 C $6,400
8 Teoscar Hernandez RIGHT 0.487 0.340 0.421 23.1% 5.0% 30.0% 38.5% OF $2,300 OF $3,000 CF $6,000
9 Darwin Barney RIGHT 0.244 0.250 0.106 21.7% 1.5% 15.4% 48.4% 2B $2,900 2B/3B $2,900 2B $5,600

Elite Plays – Richard Urena, Justin Smoak (FD)

Secondary Plays – Josh Donaldson, Justin Smoak (DK & FDRFT), Kendrys Morales

Stackability – ORANGE / YELLOW

Oakland at Boston – 7:10 PM ET

Oakland Boston
oaklandmlb Jharel Cotton bostonmlb Doug Fister
RIGHT RIGHT
Vegas Moneyline Vegas Over/Under
BOS-190 10.0
Stats wOBA xwOBA HC% BB% K% GB% Stats wOBA xwOBA HC% BB% K% GB%
SP vs. Left (2016-17) 0.359 0.308 29.9% 12.3% 16.6% 34.4% SP vs. Left (2016-17) 0.345 0.340 37.7% 12.0% 18.6% 50.0%
SP vs. Right (2016-17) 0.357 0.324 32.6% 7.2% 19.5% 38.3% SP vs. Right (2016-17) 0.231 0.275 25.0% 7.5% 23.3% 50.5%

Pitcher Grind Down

Jharel Cotton
jharel-cotton-300x200 FanDuel DraftKings FantasyDraft
Salary: $5,500 Salary: $5,300 Salary: $10,500
Salary Rank: 30 of 30 Salary Rank: 27 of 30 Salary Rank: 22 of 30
Stats Starts SIERA ERA K% BB% GB% HC% SC%
2016 5 4.02 2.15 20.5% 3.6% 37.6% 28.2% 22.4%
2017 22 5.11 5.82 18.2% 9.5% 36.6% 31.4% 21.5%
L30 5 5.50 6.18 14.6% 8.9% 36.2% 30.9% 20.2%

Cotton has not pitched well this season and he comes into tonight’s start in bad form. In his last five starts, he has a 5.50 SIERA with a strikeout rate of 15% and a walk rate of 9%. That’s not going to get the job done in daily fantasy baseball. He is an easy fade tonight against the Red Sox in one of the most hitter-friendly ballparks in baseball.

Quick Breakdown: Avoid Cotton in all formats.

Doug Fister
doug-fister-300x200 FanDuel DraftKings FantasyDraft
Salary: $8,200 Salary: $8,800 Salary: $17,100
Salary Rank: 11 of 30 Salary Rank: 9 of 30 Salary Rank: 7 of 30
Stats Starts SIERA ERA K% BB% GB% HC% SC%
2016 32 4.97 4.64 14.8% 8.0% 45.3% 31.5% 19.7%
2017 11 4.56 3.91 20.8% 9.9% 50.2% 31.8% 17.3%
L30 5 4.03 2.62 23.5% 8.8% 56.7% 27.5% 19.8%

Fister has shocked the world with his play over his last five starts, posting a 2.82 ERA (4.03 SIERA) with a strikeout rate of 24% and a ground ball rate of 57%. While I’m not sold on him in the long run, he’s at least somewhat appealing in a home start against the strikeout-happy A’s. Tonight’s start will come down to whether or not he can maintain a high strikeout rate. The A’s have the highest fly-ball rate of any team in baseball, which should negate Fister’s ability to induce ground balls. If he’s not striking batters out here, we could see Fister come crashing back down to earth.

Quick Breakdown: I never love targeting ground ball pitchers against the A’s and the fact that this is in Fenway Park doesn’t help.

Batter Grind Down

Oakland

As mentioned above, the A’s have the highest fly-ball rate of any team in baseball. If you look at the projected lineup below, you will see that all nine of their starters have a ground ball rate below 46% and six of them have a ground ball rate below 40%. I see this as a sneaky opportunity to target the A’s, as they take on Doug Fister in a hitter-friendly ballpark. The left-handed hitters have the edge in this matchup, but I wouldn’t rule out the likes of Khris Davis, who boasts a .306 ISO against right-handed pitching this season.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

# Player Bats wOBA xwOBA ISO HC% BB% K% GB% FD Pos. FD Sal. DK Pos. DK Sal. FDRFT Pos. FDRFT Sal.
1 Marcus Semien RIGHT 0.333 0.309 0.147 24.3% 11.4% 22.7% 38.5% SS $4,100 SS $4,000 SS $7,600
2 Matt Joyce LEFT 0.361 0.372 0.261 32.7% 13.9% 20.6% 33.5% OF $4,200 OF $4,300 RF $8,400
3 Jed Lowrie SWITCH 0.346 0.368 0.172 36.3% 10.5% 14.8% 26.7% 2B $3,400 2B $3,700 2B $7,200
4 Khris Davis RIGHT 0.373 0.381 0.306 41.2% 10.3% 31.2% 39.3% OF $4,400 OF $4,200 LF $8,000
5 Matt Olson LEFT 0.411 0.380 0.373 43.2% 9.0% 27.8% 36.7% 1B $3,700 1B/OF $4,400 LF $8,700
6 Ryon Healy RIGHT 0.301 0.308 0.173 35.3% 3.5% 24.9% 44.5% 1B $3,100 1B/3B $3,800 3B $7,500
7 Bruce Maxwell LEFT 0.322 0.324 0.122 37.9% 13.2% 23.1% 45.7% C $2,900 C $3,000 C $6,000
8 Matt Chapman RIGHT 0.352 0.285 0.280 36.0% 9.8% 29.3% 36.0% 3B $3,300 3B $2,300 3B $4,400
9 Boog Powell LEFT 0.337 0.275 0.121 24.0% 9.8% 23.2% 45.2% OF $2,900 OF $3,400 CF $6,600

Elite Plays – Matt Olson

Secondary Plays – Matt Joyce, Jed Lowrie, Khris Davis, Bruce Maxwell

Stackability – YELLOW

Boston

The Red Sox have one of the highest implied run totals in the slate, as they take on the struggling Jharel Cotton. It was promising to see the Red Sox hit some home runs last night, as that has been one of their weaknesses all season. While I like the spot for Boston as a whole, there isn’t a lot that stands out from a splits perspective. Even with his struggles this season, Cotton has held both left and right-handed hitters under a .325 xwOBA and under a 33% hard contact rate.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

# Player Bats wOBA xwOBA ISO HC% BB% K% GB% FD Pos. FD Sal. DK Pos. DK Sal. FDRFT Pos. FDRFT Sal.
1 Dustin Pedroia RIGHT 0.338 0.317 0.102 25.7% 9.4% 10.2% 48.3% 2B $3,300 2B $3,600 2B $7,200
2 Andrew Benintendi LEFT 0.349 0.345 0.182 36.5% 9.9% 16.5% 37.4% OF $4,000 OF $4,800 LF $9,200
3 Mookie Betts RIGHT 0.324 0.328 0.179 35.2% 9.8% 11.6% 40.2% OF $4,300 OF $5,300 RF $10,200
4 Hanley Ramirez RIGHT 0.328 0.356 0.179 35.0% 8.4% 20.6% 41.8% 1B $3,000 1B $3,600 1B $7,200
5 Mitch Moreland LEFT 0.330 0.375 0.201 38.8% 10.1% 21.3% 41.0% 1B $3,000 1B $3,800 1B $7,600
6 Xander Bogaerts RIGHT 0.316 0.265 0.140 29.7% 7.8% 19.9% 47.0% SS $3,100 SS $4,000 SS $7,600
7 Rafael Devers LEFT 0.328 0.296 0.212 33.7% 8.1% 22.0% 51.2% 3B $3,300 3B $3,800 3B $7,600
8 Sandy Leon SWITCH 0.266 0.266 0.124 31.8% 8.0% 26.6% 36.0% C $2,400 C $2,600 C $5,200
9 Jackie Bradley Jr. LEFT 0.307 0.317 0.169 37.1% 8.4% 25.0% 42.0% OF $3,000 OF $3,400 CF $6,600

Elite Plays – Mookie Betts, Mitch Moreland

Secondary Plays – Dustin Pedroia, Andrew Benintendi, Hanley Ramirez

Stackability – YELLOW / GREEN

NY Mets at Chicago Cubs – 8:05 PM ET

NY Mets Chicago Cubs
nymetsmlb Matt Harvey cubsmlb Jon Lester
RIGHT LEFT
Vegas Moneyline Vegas Over/Under
CHC-280 8.5
Stats wOBA xwOBA HC% BB% K% GB% Stats wOBA xwOBA HC% BB% K% GB%
SP vs. Left (2016-17) 0.391 0.406 37.6% 11.8% 14.9% 34.8% SP vs. Left (2016-17) 0.243 0.228 23.1% 2.7% 35.1% 54.4%
SP vs. Right (2016-17) 0.317 0.324 31.3% 9.1% 18.3% 51.2% SP vs. Right (2016-17) 0.339 0.314 28.2% 9.0% 21.4% 44.8%

Pitcher Grind Down

Matt Harvey
matt-harvey-300x200 FanDuel DraftKings FantasyDraft
Salary: $5,800 Salary: $5,100 Salary: $10,200
Salary Rank: 27 of 30 Salary Rank: 29 of 30 Salary Rank: 23 of 30
Stats Starts SIERA ERA K% BB% GB% HC% SC%
2016 17 4.31 4.86 18.9% 6.2% 40.8% 30.3% 24.3%
2017 15 5.24 5.82 16.7% 10.4% 43.4% 34.3% 24.6%
L30 2 5.29 11.57 10.8% 2.7% 30.0% 30.0% 20.0%

Harvey should not be on your radar tonight. He should not be on your radar the rest of the season. He is a shell of his former self, which is a shame considering how much talent he had when he first broke onto the scene. In 15 starts this season, he has a 5.24 SIERA with a 10% walk rate and a 34% hard contact rate. He draws a difficult matchup against the Cubs, who have been one of the best offensive teams in baseball since the All-Star break.

Quick Breakdown: Avoid Harvey in all formats.

Jon Lester
jon-lester-300x200 FanDuel DraftKings FantasyDraft
Salary: $8,700 Salary: $9,600 Salary: $18,600
Salary Rank: 6 of 30 Salary Rank: 6 of 30 Salary Rank: 4 of 30
Stats Starts SIERA ERA K% BB% GB% HC% SC%
2016 32 3.61 2.44 24.8% 6.5% 46.9% 26.8% 18.9%
2017 28 3.94 4.35 24.4% 7.6% 46.7% 27.2% 21.6%
L30 4 4.66 7.23 20.0% 8.9% 39.1% 34.4% 28.1%

Lester has struggled a bit in his last four outings, posting a 4.66 SIERA with a strikeout rate of 20% and a hard contact rate of 34%. His season long numbers haven’t quite been as impressive as they were last year, but he draws a nice bounce-back matchup tonight against the Mets. If you look at their projected lineup below, there really isn’t a single hitter that should scare us off of Lester. He’s a huge favorite, he’s pitching at home, and there is a helping wind blowing in from right field.

Quick Breakdown: We know that Lester is talented. I expect him to bounce back in a big way tonight against the Mets.

Batter Grind Down

NY Mets

The Mets have one of the lowest implied totals in the slate, as they square off against Jon Lester in Wrigley Field. This can be a hitter-friendly ballpark when the wind is blowing out and a pitcher-friendly ballpark when the wind is blowing in. There isn’t a strong wind tonight, but it’s blowing in slightly from right field. There isn’t anything that stands out in a matchup against Jon Lester, who has held both left and right-handed hitters under a .315 xwOBA this season. The one potential exception is Jose Reyes. He has been swinging a hot bat recently and we know Lester struggles to hold runners.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. LH Pitching)

# Player Bats wOBA xwOBA ISO HC% BB% K% GB% FD Pos. FD Sal. DK Pos. DK Sal. FDRFT Pos. FDRFT Sal.
1 Jose Reyes SWITCH 0.367 0.291 0.245 27.7% 9.1% 13.6% 37.0% SS $3,700 3B/SS $3,800 SS $7,600
2 Juan Lagares RIGHT 0.275 0.269 0.119 31.3% 4.6% 20.0% 40.4% OF $2,700 OF $3,100 CF $6,000
3 Asdrubal Cabrera SWITCH 0.354 0.323 0.086 37.5% 6.3% 15.2% 50.6% 3B $3,500 2B/SS $4,000 SS $7,800
4 Travis d’Arnaud RIGHT 0.399 0.341 0.243 35.1% 10.8% 20.5% 50.9% C $2,800 C $3,300 C $6,400
5 Amed Rosario RIGHT 0.373 0.276 0.320 23.8% 3.8% 15.4% 47.6% SS $2,500 SS $3,000 SS $6,000
6 Dominic Smith LEFT 0.194 0.296 0.067 33.3% 11.1% 38.9% 44.4% 1B $2,900 1B $2,700 1B $5,400
7 Travis Taijeron RIGHT 0.458 0.571 66.7% 0.0% 14.3% 50.0% OF $2,100 OF $2,400 RF $4,800
8 Brandon Nimmo LEFT 0.295 0.287 0.000 15.4% 22.2% 29.6% 50.0% OF $3,200 OF $3,500 LF $6,800
9 Matt Harvey RIGHT 0.000 0.000 25.0% 0.0% 50.0% 75.0% P $5,800 P $5,100 P $10,200

Elite Plays – None

Secondary Plays – Jose Reyes

Stackability – RED

Chicago Cubs

Time to fire up the old Cubs’ stack. Matt Harvey has been one of the most hittable pitchers in baseball this season, especially for left-handed hitters. He has allowed a .406 xwOBA with a 38% hard contact rate and a 12% walk rate. Any and all lefties in this Cubs’ lineup will be on my radar tonight and I don’t mind using Kris Bryant as a part of a full stack. Even though the wind isn’t blowing out tonight in Wrigley, the Cubs are still one of my favorite offenses to target in this slate.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

# Player Bats wOBA xwOBA ISO HC% BB% K% GB% FD Pos. FD Sal. DK Pos. DK Sal. FDRFT Pos. FDRFT Sal.
1 Jon Jay LEFT 0.322 0.311 0.100 29.0% 8.1% 20.7% 47.1% OF $2,500 OF $2,900 CF $5,700
2 Kris Bryant RIGHT 0.384 0.341 0.239 30.3% 12.5% 19.9% 37.6% 3B $3,800 3B $5,000 IF/OF $9,900
3 Anthony Rizzo LEFT 0.383 0.404 0.239 34.6% 13.3% 12.5% 38.8% 1B $3,900 1B $5,500 1B $10,800
4 Ben Zobrist SWITCH 0.323 0.326 0.153 33.5% 10.7% 14.5% 52.1% OF $3,400 2B/OF $3,500 IF/OF $6,900
5 Kyle Schwarber LEFT 0.334 0.350 0.266 38.1% 11.5% 29.2% 39.5% OF $3,600 OF $3,900 IF/OF $7,600
6 Willson Contreras RIGHT 0.345 0.300 0.238 34.5% 6.3% 27.1% 52.1% C $2,900 C $3,600 IF/OF $7,200
7 Jason Heyward LEFT 0.308 0.324 0.129 25.7% 9.3% 11.2% 47.3% OF $2,800 OF $3,300 RF $6,400
8 Javier Baez RIGHT 0.294 0.273 0.182 29.3% 5.8% 29.7% 49.3% SS $3,100 2B/SS $3,500 2B $6,900
9 Jon Lester LEFT 0.214 0.246 0.091 38.1% 5.4% 37.8% 60.0% P $8,700 P $9,600 P $18,600

Elite Plays – Jon Jay, Anthony Rizzo, Ben Zobrist, Kyle Schwarber

Secondary Plays – Kris Bryant, Willson Contreras

Stackability – GREEN

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About the Author

Notorious
Derek Farnsworth (Notorious)

Derek Farnsworth (aka Notorious) is a lead RotoGrinders Expert and one of the most recognizable names and faces in all of DFS. Before joining the RotoGrinders team, Derek received a Master’s Degree from the University of Utah. When he’s not busy providing content, he’s dominating the DFS industry as evidenced by his consistent top rankings in several sports and multiple Live Final appearances. Noto provides expert NBA, NFL, MLB, and PGA analysis for RotoGrinders Premium members on a daily basis and has also been nominated for five different Fantasy Sports Writer’s Association (FSWA) awards. Follow Noto on X – @RG_Notorious