NHL Grind Down: Sunday, February 14th
The RotoGrinders NHL Grind Down article will give you an in-depth analysis into the NHL schedule. This article will break down the numbers for every single game and give you analysis on which trends you can exploit. While matchups are a major factor in daily fantasy hockey there are plenty of other factors to consider such as injuries, salaries, and more.
The analysis should point you in the right direction, but it is still up to you to decipher the information and make your own selections. Hockey is an extremely high variance sport. The best choice is not always the right choice but following the trends will win you money over time.
Remember, these writeups are done prior to lineups being released, so make sure to check our Starting Lineups page to ensure the recommended options are playing.
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Colorado Avalanche at Buffalo Sabres – 12:30 PM EST
| Colorado Avalanche | Buffalo Sabres | ||||||||
 | Semyon Varlamov |  | Robin Lehner | ||||||
| Record | Record | ||||||||
| 29-25-4 | 22-28-6 | ||||||||
| Stats | GF/GP | GA/GP | PP% | PK% | Stats | GF/GP | GA/GP | PP% | PK% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Team Stats | 2.67 | 2.76 | 19.90% | 78.90% | Team Stats | 2.34 | 2.77 | 20.10% | 80.60% |
Despite being outshot 45-21 by the Red Wings on Friday Night, the Avalanche picked up their second straight victory and are hanging on to one of the final playoff spots in the Western Conference. They’ll look to complete a sweep of a three game road trip tonight in Buffalo against a Sabres team they defeated 2-1 in their only previous meeting this season. With Buffalo having allowed 16 goals against in its last three games, Colorado is definitely in play this afternoon. Matt Duchene and Nathan MacKinnon share the team lead with 44 points in 58 games this season and but were separated on the top line by Patrick Roy in Friday night’s game. While it’s more appealing for fantasy purposes to see them playing alongside each other, both are still talented enough to produce offensively regardless of their linemates and are also guaranteed plenty of run with the man advantage. With that said, it’s actually been Jarome Iginla, Blake Comeau and Carl Soderberg making the most noise since the All-Star break. All three players will likely be widely overlooked, making them very intriguing GPP options. On defense, Tyson Barrie is the quarterback of the #1 power-play unit and has dished out three assists in the last two games. He’s all but guaranteed 20+ minutes of ice-time this evening and remains underpriced on several sites.
Buffalo snapped a four game losing skid with a 6-4 win over the Montreal Canadiens on Friday. While that result looks promising on the surface, it’s important to remember how much Montreal has struggled lately as well as the fact that Buffalo managed just 22 shots on goal in the win. While it’s generally somewhat tough to comfortably target Buffalo in cash games, the fact that Colorado is not only the worst puck possession team in the NHL this season but also own an ugly 78.9% penalty kill changes things a bit. Ryan O’Reilly has led the team in scoring all season long and after dishing out two assists on Friday night, he now owns 17 goals and 30 assists in 56 games this season. He’s picked up seven assists in six games since the All-Star break and should have some added motivation tonight against the team that traded him away this summer. He’s the top option with his linemates Evander Kane and Sam Reinhart being fine secondary options. Rookie Jack Eichel has taken a back seat to Connor McDavid lately, but the #2 pick in last seasons draft has rather quietly racked up seven goals and 15 assists in his last 24 games. Another former first round pick, Rasmus Ristolainen, has cooled off a bit lately but still owns 33 points in 56 games and is a mortal lock for nearly 25 minutes of ice-time. He’s already posted 16 points from the point of the #1 power-play this season and his usual plus/minus concerns are mitigated a bit in this matchup.
Colorado Avalanche
CF%: 42.9, CP60: 109.9, 5×5 Differential: -7
Elite Options: Nathan MacKinnon, Matt Duchene, Tyson Barrie
Secondary Options: Carl Soderberg, Gabriel Landeskog, Blake Comeau, Jarome Iginla, Erik Johnson
Buffalo Sabres
CF%: 48, CP60: 103.9, 5×5 Differential: -30
Elite Options: Ryan O’Reilly, Jack Eichel
Secondary Options: Evander Kane, Sam Reinhart, Jamie McGinn, Rasmus Ristolainen, Cody Franson
Los Angeles Kings at New Jersey Devils – 12:30 PM EST
| Los Angeles Kings | New Jersey Devils | ||||||||
 | Jonathan Quick |  | Cory Schneider | ||||||
| Record | Record | ||||||||
| 33-18-3 | 28-21-7 | ||||||||
| Stats | GF/GP | GA/GP | PP% | PK% | Stats | GF/GP | GA/GP | PP% | PK% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Team Stats | 2.80 | 2.37 | 23.30% | 81.90% | Team Stats | 2.21 | 2.21 | 21.30% | 82.80% |
The Kings will continue their daunting seven game road trip tonight in New Jersey looking to pick up their first set of back-to-back wins since the middle of January. While they’re still firmly in first place in the Pacific Division, they look to have taken their foot off the gas a bit lately and own just a 8-7-1 record over their last 15 games. With that said, they’ve averaged 4.80 goals per game since the All-Star break and have a significant puck possession advantage over the much slower New Jersey Devils. Anze Kopitar picked up a hat trick at Madison Square Garden on Friday night and has now tallied three goals and five assists in four games since the break. He leads the team with 50 points in 54 games and headlines both the top scoring line and #1 power-play unit. Kopitar is joined by Milan Lucic and Dustin Brown at even strength with Jeff Carter and Tyler Toffoli slated to join him with the man advantage. With Marian Gaborik lost to a knee injury, Tanner Pearson should also see an added role with this offense and some extra run on the power-play. On defense, Drew Doughty and Jake Muzzin have each already surpassed the 30-point plateau and team up on the point of the dangerous #1 power-play unit. They’re both fine options in all formats today and Alec Martinez, who has posted two goals and three assists in five games since the break, looks like a nice value play as well.
The Devils picked up their second consecutive 2-1 victory in Philadelphia yesterday afternoon, but haven’t topped three goals in any of its last eight games and are averaging an NHL low 2.21 goals per game this season. They also happened to be the slowest paced team in the league and look like an easy team to avoid in cash games against the defensively sound Los Angeles Kings. With that said, they’re also 7-2-2 over their last 11 games and it’s hard to overlook them completely on a rather short slate. John Hynes has two very capable scoring lines at his disposal, but it’s been the top line of Joseph Blandisi, Adam Henrique and Lee Stempniak carrying the offensive load lately. That trio has combined for seven goals and eight assists in six games since the break and look like the top options here despite the tough matchup opposite Anze Kopitar pestering defense. New Jersey has been a fantasy wasteland on the blue-line pretty much all season and there’s little reason to expect that to change tonight
Los Angeles Kings
CF%: 56.3, CP60: 110.6, 5×5 Differential: 4
Elite Options: Anze Kopitar, Tyler Toffoli, Drew Doughty, Jake Muzzin
Secondary Options: Milan Lucic, Dustin Brown, Tanner Pearson, Alec Martinez
New Jersey Devils
CF%: 46.4, CP60: 90.6, 5×5 Differential: -5
Elite Options: None
Secondary Options: Joseph Blandisi, Lee Stempniak, Adam Henrique, Kyle Palmieri
Boston Bruins at Detroit Red Wings – 03:00 PM EST
| Boston Bruins | Detroit Red Wings | ||||||||
 | Jonas Gustavsson |  | Petr Mrazek | ||||||
| Record | Record | ||||||||
| 30-19-6 | 28-18-9 | ||||||||
| Stats | GF/GP | GA/GP | PP% | PK% | Stats | GF/GP | GA/GP | PP% | PK% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Team Stats | 2.96 | 2.73 | 22.90% | 83.60% | Team Stats | 2.51 | 2.44 | 18.20% | 80.40% |
In a battle for second place in the Atlantic Division, the Bruins will invade the Joe Louis Arena to battle the Detroit Red Wings. Boston has picked up two points in both prior meetings with Detroit this season and have posted a 9-3-1 record over their last 13 games. While squaring off against Petr Mrazek NHL best 1.94 GAA and .933 SV% is obviously not ideal, overlooking the Bruins could be dangerous. Patrice Bergeron was forced out of yesterday’s game with an undisclosed injury and seems unlikely to suit up this afternoon as well. As Boston’s leading scorer, it would obviously be a big blow in this tough and important matchup. Assuming he’s out of action, both David Krejci and Brad Marchand would be expected to pick up the slack offensively. Both players have been heating up, with Marchand on an absolute heater that has seen him tally 12 goals in his last 12 games. On defense, both Zdeno Chara and Torey Krug are locked into huge minutes both at even strength and on the power-play. Krug was born in raised in the Detroit area giving him some added motivation while Chara has proven to matchup problem down low for the Wings undersized defenseman.
Detroit likely deserved a better outcome than their shootout loss against Colorado on Friday night, but will finish up their five game home stand with a crucial game against the Division rival Bruins this afternoon. The Wings look like they’ll catch a nice break with Patrice Bergeron likely watching from the press-box which makes life much easier for the top line of Henrik Zetterberg, Pavel Datsyuk and Justin Abdelkader. Datsyuk has posted three goals and three goals in six games since the All-Star break with Zetterberg and Abdelkader both chipping in five points a piece as well. While they’re easily the most dangerous line at Coach Blashill’s disposal, Dylan Larkin and Tomas Tatar (with Brad Richards) lurk as dangerous secondary scoring options. Niklas Kronwall is still a few days away from returning to the lineup, which solidifies the minutes for Mike Green, Brendan Smith and Danny DeKeyser on the blue-line. Green is the clear #1 option, but both DeKeyser and Smith look like fine value plays.
Boston Bruins
CF%: 49.3, CP60: 110.9, 5×5 Differential: 5
Elite Options: Brad Marchand, Torey Krug, Zdeno Chara
Secondary Options: David Krejci, David Pastrnak, Loui Eriksson
Detroit Red Wings
CF%: 51.2, CP60: 100, 5×5 Differential: 10
Elite Options: Henrik Zetterberg, Pavel Datsyuk, Mike Green
Secondary Options: Dylan Larkin, Justin Abdelkader, Tomas Tatar, Gustav Nyquist, Brendan Smith, Danny DeKeyser
St. Louis Blues at Tampa Bay Lightning – 06:00 PM EST
| St. Louis Blues | Tampa Bay Lightning | ||||||||
 | Brian Elliott |  | Ben Bishop | ||||||
| Record | Record | ||||||||
| 31-17-9 | 30-20-4 | ||||||||
| Stats | GF/GP | GA/GP | PP% | PK% | Stats | GF/GP | GA/GP | PP% | PK% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Team Stats | 2.42 | 2.33 | 20.90% | 86.40% | Team Stats | 2.67 | 2.41 | 18.90% | 82.20% |
The Blues finish off their tour of Florida tonight in Tampa Bay after picking up a much needed victory against the Panthers on Friday night. St. Louis was ecstatic to get Jaden Schwartz back into action and he made an immediate impact with a goal and an assist in his season debut. While the matchup in Tampa against a Lightning team that has allowed just 2.25 goals against per game at home this season is far from ideal, the line of Vladimir Tarasenko, Jaden Schwartz and Jori Lehtera was lethal when together for the majority of last season. Alex Steen, Paul Stastny and David Backes all join Tarasenko up-front on the #1 power-play unit making them solid GPP targets. With Alex Pietrangelo (and his team high 26:40 of average ice-time) out of commission, both Kevin Shattenkirk and Colton Parayko see a nice boost in playing time. Both blue-liners have proven to be very dangerous from the point of the St. Louis power-play and are fine options where the price is right.
Behind the other bench, John Cooper finally has his Lightning playing the way they did when stormed through the Eastern Conference in the playoffs last season. Tampa has posted a 11-3-0 record over their last 14 games and own an impressive 18-8-2 record at Amalie Arena. Coach Cooper has two very dangerous forward lines to throw at the Blues. Steven Stamkos headlines the top line and has racked up 12 goals and 17 assists in 28 home games this season. He’s joined by solid value options in Vladislav Namestnikov and Ondrej Palat on the top line while leading scorer Nikita Kucherov leads Tyler Johnson and Alex Killorn on the “second” line. Kucherov has posted 13 goals and 17 assists in those 28 home games and has tallied eight goals and nine assists in his last 14 games. On defense, both Anton Stralman and Victor Hedman log heavy minutes both at even strength and on the power-play making them solid targets. Hedman has picked up a pair of points in each of the last two games and owns three goals and 13 assists over his last 14 games.
St. Louis Blues
CF%: 51, CP60: 104.8, 5×5 Differential: 8
Elite Options: Vladimir Tarasenko, Jaden Schwartz, Kevin Shattenkirk
Secondary Options: Alex Steen, David Backes, Paul Stastny, Colton Parayko
Tampa Bay Lightning
CF%: 52.4, CP60: 105.7, 5×5 Differential: 7
Elite Options: Steven Stamkos, Nikita Kucherov, Victor Hedman
Secondary Options: Tyler Johnson, Vladislav Namestnikov, Ondrej Palat, Anton Stralman
Philadelphia Flyers at New York Rangers – 07:30 PM EST
| Philadelphia Flyers | New York Rangers | ||||||||
 | Michal Neuvirth |  | Henrik Lundqvist | ||||||
| Record | Record | ||||||||
| 24-20-10 | 31-18-6 | ||||||||
| Stats | GF/GP | GA/GP | PP% | PK% | Stats | GF/GP | GA/GP | PP% | PK% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Team Stats | 2.37 | 2.59 | 17.90% | 78.50% | Team Stats | 2.85 | 2.55 | 16.30% | 78.00% |
The Flyers dropped an overtime decision in New Jersey yesterday afternoon and will now make the short journey to Madison Square Garden for tonight’s meeting with the New York Rangers to kick off a five game road trip. The Flyers have dropped four of their last five games to fall out of contention in the Eastern Conference and have lost each of their last two games against the Rangers this season. While I don’t expect them to pick up two points tonight, I’m not willing to overlook their explosive top line of Claude Giroux, Jakub Voracek and Wayne Simmonds. All three players have tallied seven points in seven games since the All-Star break and will look to take advantage of New York’s subpar 78.0% penalty kill. Simmonds has lit the lamp eight times in his last nine games and has torched New York for three goals and a pair of assists in their four meeting this season. On defense, Shayne Gostisbehere continues to dazzle in his rookie season. He scored the teams only goal yesterday afternoon to extend his point streak to 11 games. He’s now tallied 10 goals and 20 assists in 36 games and quarterbacks the Flyer’s top power-play unit.
The Rangers saw a four game winning streak snapped against the Kings on Friday night, but Alain Vigneault appears to once again have this team headed in the right direction despite key injuries to both Rick Nash and Ryan McDonagh. Mats Zuccarello scored a goal and added an assist against Los Angeles to take the team lead with 41 points in 55 games. He’s the focal point of the top forward line with Derek Stepan and Chris Kreider with that trio also joining forces on the #1 power-play unit. His former linemate Derick Brassard has is joined by J.T. Miller and Jesper Fast on a second line that has been surprisingly effective. Miller has flashed the talents that made him a first round pick by scoring nine goals over his last 12 games. With the Flyers not only struggling with their penalty kill all season (78.5%) but also missing their top penalty killer in Sean Couture, all six forwards are worth consideration given the rather small slate. On defense, McDonagh’s absence means Keith Yandle is set for all the minutes he can handle. He’s picked up three points in the last four games and is not only one of the best breakout passers in the NHL but is also a major offensive weapon from the point of the #1 power-play unit.
Philadelphia Flyers
CF%: 49.5, CP60: 113.2, 5×5 Differential: 0
Elite Options: Claude Giroux, Jakub Voracek, Wayne Simmonds, Shayne Gostisbehere
Secondary Options: Brayden Schenn, Mark Streit
New York Rangers
CF%: 48, CP60: 107, 5×5 Differential: 33
Elite Options: Mats Zuccarello, Derick Brassard, Keith Yandle
Secondary Options: Derek Stepan, Chris Kreider, J.T. Miller, Dan Boyle