The Relief Brief: Friday, August 19th

by Collin Campbell (collinman005@gmail.com) Last Updated 2016-08-20 02:25:47

Somewhere around 35% of at bats come against a team’s bullpen. Most DFSers, however, pay attention only to the matchup an offense has with starting pitchers.

In order to give RotoGrinders readers an edge on the field, we have developed a Bullpen Pitching article that focuses on bullpen usage and skill, as well as the elements that may come into play on that day in terms of the bullpen pitchers an offense is likeliest to see. Although we developed this article as part of our Premium Content Package, we decided to make this article free to all readers for the remainder of the 2016 MLB season!

Check the bottom of the article for a chance to face me and other RG readers in a fantasy football league!

Friday night features a full slate. While I won’t break down every bullpen situation, we will begin with the bullpen highlights. Let’s get to it!

1. Bullpen Highlights

Gerrit Cole has greatly disappointed in his last three starts. Over that span, Cole has allowed ten earned runs and 22 hits through just 15 total innings. The Pirates bullpen now has the sixth worst SIERA in all of baseball, and they may have to work more than anticipated if Cole can’t figure things out. This spot has some sneaky appeal.

Adam Morgan has not exceeded five innings in any of his previous six outings (four starts). He has struggled over the course of the season to the tune of a 1-7 record with a 6.62 ERA (4.72 xFIP). The Cardinals continue to struggle against lefties on the season, but have been better over the last two weeks. This is an intriguing spot because of the likelihood of a short outing for Morgan and the recent struggles of the Phillies bullpen (1.34 HR/9).

Tim Adleman hasn’t started a big league game since the 19th of May. He does have four big league starts on the season, but exceeded five innings in only one of those starts. Adleman does have three straight AAA starts of seven innings or more, but facing the Dodgers in an offensive friendly environment isn’t exactly a recipe for a long outing. I expect to see between five and six innings for the youngster here before yielding to the Reds woeful (but improving) bullpen.

Bud Norris is coming off of a 15-day DL stint. Prior to his stint on the DL, Norris was struggling to work deep into games. I don’t expect a long outing tonight, as the Dodgers may not be willing to extend him coming off of his time on the DL. The Reds may have some appeal here against Norris, but the Dodgers bullpen does have the fifth best SIERA in baseball this season. Casey Fien, Josh Fields and Grant Dayton all have worked a good amount in two of the last three days, but this ‘pen has other stout options.

Matt Andriese has not exceeded five innings or 76 pitches in any of his previous three starts. The Rangers will be traveling to The Trop tonight, and their lineup is in good form. I expect to see plenty of the Rays ‘pen here. While the Rays have been right around average in most categories, they have surrendered the second most HR/9 in baseball this season at a rate of 1.36. Ranger’s bats are in play here.

Francisco Liriano has exceeded six innings just four times in his 23 starts on the season. Liriano has really struggled with walks (5.24/9) and home runs (21 total allowed). Tonight, Liriano will pitch in one of the most hitter friendly environments against a team that has been raking lately. I don’t like his chances of going deep into this game either, which means that we should see plenty of the Toronto bullpen tonight. The Blue Jays bullpen sport the fourth best SIERA in baseball, so the appeal of the Cleveland bats has to be tempered due to the strength of this relief unit.

Tyler Anderson struggled mightily in his last start, which happened to be in Philadelphia. That alone may draw more ownership to Cubs sticks tonight. Incredibly, in his 11 other starts on the season, Anderson has allowed more than three runs in just one of those. Pitching in Coors this season, Anderson has shut down the Rangers, Dodgers, Braves, Phillies, Blue Jays, Diamondbacks and Padres. The Rockies bullpen is in the lower third of the big leagues in SIERA, but they have done a surprisingly good job of limiting home runs, particularly over the last month plus. The Cubs bats are sure to be highly owned, but make sure you consider all the data before you default to Cubs bats.

Brent Suter gets his first major league start tonight. In AAA this season, Suter has exceeded five innings in just one third of his starts (5 out of 15). Suter also has a mediocre 3.50 ERA and an uninspiring 75 strikeouts through 110 plus innings pitched. I would be shocked if Suter escapes the sixth inning tonight. The Brewers bullpen has the eight worst SIERA in baseball this season, and should be forced into a lot of action tonight.

Seth Lugo has not pitched six innings in a game at any level since May 31st in AAA. In Lugo’s last three starts at all levels, he has a grand total of 6.2 innings pitched. Needless to say, we can’t realistically expect Lugo to go beyond the fifth inning tonight in San Francisco. While that may draw some appeal, the purpose of this article is to make you aware of the bullpen situation. The Mets bullpen has the seventh best team SIERA and the fifth best bullpen strikeout percentage, which takes some appeal away from Giants bats.

Jarred Cosart and Zack Greinke face off against each other tonight. As I accurately predicted in yesterday’s article, both of these bullpens were forced into a lot of action last night. The good news here is that Greinke got absolutely lit up by the Red Sox in his last start (that’s not the good news), and didn’t throw many pitches, so he should be fresh and ready for tonight (there it is). Cosart has reached the six-inning plateau in only one of his seven starts on the season, and it wouldn’t surprise me to see him fall short of that mark tonight. The Diamondbacks bullpen has the second worst SIERA in baseball, and the Padres bullpen has the ninth worst SIERA in baseball, however, the Diamondbacks have a pitcher going who is more than capable of working deep into the game, while the Padres may not.

My Top 5 Bullpen Situations To Attack

1. Milwaukee Brewers
2. San Diego Padres
3. Philadelphia Phillies
4. Tampa Bay Rays
5. Cincinnati Reds

2. Bullpen Personnel Movement

The Giants activated Cory Gearrin from the 15-day DL. He should work the seventh inning.

The Braves activated Arodys Vizcaino off of the 15-day DL. He had been the closer earlier in the season, and will likely be eased back into action before assuming his closing role.

3. Other Notes And Insights

Dillon Gee must’ve seen the hurtful things that I wrote about him in yesterdays article. He went a season long seven innings last night and held the Twins to just one run while striking out seven in his (by far) best start of the season.

I’m starting a reader fantasy football league! The first three people to assign a name to the person in my RG avatar will get a spot in the 12-team league! Have fun!

Feel free to follow me and ask me questions on Twitter – @collinman005

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