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MLB Grind Down: Friday, April 20th

by Derek Farnsworth (Notorious) Last Updated 2018-04-20 20:15:53

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The RotoGrinders MLB Grind Down will give you an in-depth analysis into the upcoming MLB schedule. This article will break down the numbers for every single game and give you analysis on which trends you can exploit. While matchups are a major factor in daily fantasy baseball, there are plenty of other factors to consider such as injuries, weather, and salaries.

The analysis should point you in the right direction, but it is still up to you to decipher the information and make your own selections. No sport has more variance than baseball. The best choice is not always the right choice but following the trends will win you money over time.

Note: As always, if you want to try a new DFS site, be sure to click through a RotoGrinders link and use our DraftKings promo code, FanDuel promo code, and FantasyDraft promo code to receive the best perks in the industry.

Stackability Rating System:

GREEN – A viable full stack in cash games and GPPs.
YELLOW – A viable mini-stack in cash games and full stack in GPPs.
ORANGE – A viable stack in large field GPPs.
RED – Not a recommended stack for cash games or GPPs.

Implied Run Totals

Ballpark Ratings

Cleveland at Baltimore – 7:05 PM ET

Cleveland Baltimore
clevelandmlb Trevor Bauer baltimoremlb Dylan Bundy
RIGHT RIGHT
Vegas Moneyline Vegas Over/Under
CLE-108 8.0
Stats wOBA xwOBA HC% BB% K% GB% Stats wOBA xwOBA HC% BB% K% GB%
SP vs. Left (2016-17) 0.348 0.340 33.0% 8.5% 23.7% 42.4% SP vs. Left (2016-17) 0.334 0.350 39.5% 7.5% 17.4% 29.5%
SP vs. Right (2016-17) 0.305 0.306 36.4% 7.6% 28.2% 48.5% SP vs. Right (2016-17) 0.274 0.293 32.1% 7.0% 27.8% 37.4%

Pitcher Grind Down

Trevor Bauer
trevor-bauer-300x200 FanDuel DraftKings FantasyDraft
Salary: $9,000 Salary: $9,400 Salary: $17,600
Salary Rank: 6 of 30 Salary Rank: 5 of 30 Salary Rank: 5 of 30
Stats Starts SIERA ERA K% BB% GB% HC% SC%
2017 31 3.80 4.19 26.2% 8.0% 46.4% 34.4% 15.0%
2018 3 3.67 2.25 24.7% 8.2% 37.7% 37.0% 18.5%

Hellooooooooo! Happy Friday everyone. As always, thanks for joining me to break down tonight’s MLB slate. We start in Baltimore in a battle between two good offensive teams. Bauer doesn’t ever seem to get the respect that he deserves, although the DFS community is starting to come around on him. In his first three starts of the season, he has a 3.67 SIERA with a strikeout rate of 25%. He draws a boom or bust matchup tonight against the Orioles, who have five batters in their projected lineup with a strikeout rate of at least 25%.

Quick Breakdown: Bauer is viable as a low floor/high ceiling play in tournaments, especially if you enter multiple lineups each night.

Dylan Bundy
dylan-bundy-300x200 FanDuel DraftKings FantasyDraft
Salary: $9,400 Salary: $8,000 Salary: $15,100
Salary Rank: 5 of 30 Salary Rank: 8 of 30 Salary Rank: 9 of 30
Stats Starts SIERA ERA K% BB% GB% HC% SC%
2017 28 4.45 4.24 21.8% 7.3% 32.8% 36.5% 17.6%
2018 4 2.93 1.40 29.8% 6.7% 36.9% 31.8% 21.2%

Bundy continues to dominate for the Orioles, posting a 2.93 SIERA with a strikeout rate of 30% on the season. There were some encouraging signs in the spring and he’s clearly been able to carry that over to the regular season. He is throwing more sinkers and sliders than he did last year and his swinging strike rate is all the way up to 16.3%. The best part is that he is still only $8,000 on DraftKings. There is a lot to like here other than his matchup against the Indians. There are a few teams that I don’t target pitchers against and Cleveland is one of them.

Quick Breakdown: At his discounted price on DraftKings, Bundy is worth a look as an SP2 in large-field tournaments, but I will be looking elsewhere.

Batter Grind Down

Cleveland

The fact that we have a game in Camden Yards with a total of eight runs shows how much respect the betting markets have for these two starting pitchers. While I don’t love the idea of playing Dylan Bundy against the Indians, I won’t be targeting any hitters against him. His stuff has been filthy this season and there are 14 other games to choose batters from tonight.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

# Player Bats wOBA xwOBA ISO HC% BB% K% GB% FD Pos. FD Sal. DK Pos. DK Sal. FDRFT Pos. FDRFT Sal.
1 Francisco Lindor SWITCH 0.340 0.362 0.236 33.7% 8.2% 13.9% 39.3% SS $4,100 SS $4,700 SS $9,000
2 Jason Kipnis LEFT 0.292 0.310 0.179 33.3% 7.0% 20.4% 33.5% 2B $3,000 2B $3,800 2B $7,200
3 Jose Ramirez SWITCH 0.388 0.356 0.268 31.3% 9.7% 10.4% 37.7% 3B $3,900 3B $4,800 IF/OF $9,100
4 Michael Brantley LEFT 0.365 0.372 0.182 39.4% 9.8% 13.2% 48.3% OF $3,200 OF $3,700 LF $7,300
5 Edwin Encarnacion RIGHT 0.370 0.393 0.261 37.7% 12.9% 19.7% 34.6% 1B $3,400 1B $4,600 1B $9,200
6 Yonder Alonso LEFT 0.373 0.386 0.227 35.6% 13.9% 22.3% 34.7% 1B $2,600 1B $4,200 1B $8,200
7 Roberto Perez RIGHT 0.268 0.291 0.132 28.2% 10.0% 28.9% 51.4% C $2,100 C $2,800 C $5,700
8 Tyler Naquin LEFT 0.258 0.267 0.089 36.6% 6.6% 26.2% 56.1% OF $2,100 OF $2,900 CF $5,900
9 Bradley Zimmer LEFT 0.301 0.301 0.152 37.6% 8.1% 33.1% 44.6% OF $2,200 OF $3,100 CF $5,900

Elite Plays – None

Secondary Plays – Francisco Lindor, Jose Ramirez

Stackability – ORANGE

Baltimore

If this is a boom or bust matchup for Trevor Bauer, then this is obviously a boom or bust matchup for the Orioles’ offense. Bauer is a fly-ball pitcher that gives up a lot of hard contact. I have more interest in the Orioles than I do the Indians, but only as one-off targets in large-field tournaments. Trey Mancini, Pedro Alvarez, and Manny Machado all own a .360+ xwOBA against right-handed pitching.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

# Player Bats wOBA xwOBA ISO HC% BB% K% GB% FD Pos. FD Sal. DK Pos. DK Sal. FDRFT Pos. FDRFT Sal.
1 Trey Mancini RIGHT 0.360 0.361 0.211 34.0% 7.0% 22.4% 50.2% OF $3,400 1B/OF $3,500 IF/OF $6,300
2 Pedro Alvarez LEFT 0.380 0.376 0.167 31.6% 14.3% 25.4% 36.8% 1B $2,300 1B/3B $3,000 1B $6,000
3 Manny Machado RIGHT 0.324 0.360 0.191 36.2% 8.1% 17.3% 42.0% SS $4,700 SS $5,000 3B $10,000
4 Adam Jones RIGHT 0.329 0.321 0.188 30.8% 3.2% 19.1% 44.4% OF $3,100 OF $3,900 CF $7,800
5 Chris Davis LEFT 0.313 0.341 0.223 42.1% 12.5% 34.5% 39.4% 1B $2,400 1B $3,100 IF/OF $5,500
6 Tim Beckham RIGHT 0.315 0.310 0.162 38.6% 5.3% 29.9% 50.0% 2B $2,700 3B $3,000 SS $5,600
7 Danny Valencia RIGHT 0.291 0.276 0.141 25.5% 5.8% 26.3% 49.4% 3B $2,500 3B $2,800 1B $5,400
8 Anthony Santander SWITCH 0.283 0.263 0.154 34.9% 1.9% 18.5% 30.2% OF $2,000 OF $2,800 LF $5,700
9 Caleb Joseph RIGHT 0.265 0.249 0.124 25.3% 3.2% 29.8% 47.2% C $2,000 C $2,600 C $4,700

Elite Plays – None

Secondary Plays – Trey Mancini, Pedro Alvarez, Manny Machado

Stackability – ORANGE

Pittsburgh at Philadelphia – 7:05 PM ET

Pittsburgh Philadelphia
pittsburghmlb Ivan Nova philadelphiamlb Ben Lively
RIGHT RIGHT
Vegas Moneyline Vegas Over/Under
PHI-113 8.0
Stats wOBA xwOBA HC% BB% K% GB% Stats wOBA xwOBA HC% BB% K% GB%
SP vs. Left (2016-17) 0.349 0.384 34.5% 4.4% 11.8% 42.6% SP vs. Left (2016-17) 0.387 0.381 30.7% 8.3% 11.4% 40.3%
SP vs. Right (2016-17) 0.314 0.310 35.2% 4.6% 22.0% 48.3% SP vs. Right (2016-17) 0.310 0.294 30.6% 3.7% 20.1% 32.9%

Pitcher Grind Down

Ivan Nova
ivan-nova-300x200 FanDuel DraftKings FantasyDraft
Salary: $8,300 Salary: $6,300 Salary: $13,000
Salary Rank: 8 of 30 Salary Rank: 20 of 30 Salary Rank: 17 of 30
Stats Starts SIERA ERA K% BB% GB% HC% SC%
2017 31 4.45 4.14 16.7% 4.6% 45.7% 34.8% 16.6%
2018 4 3.49 4.88 21.8% 4.0% 43.8% 35.6% 13.7%

Nova is not a pitcher that I want to target against the Phillies or in this ballpark. In order for him to be viable in DFS, he has to be facing a right-handed heavy lineup in a pitcher-friendly ballpark. He’s 0-for-2 with that criteria. Since the start of last season, he has allowed a .384 xwOBA to left-handed hitters and the Phillies are projected to have five of them in their lineup tonight.

Quick Breakdown: There will be times to use Nova, but this isn’t one of them.

Ben Lively
ben-lively-300x200 FanDuel DraftKings FantasyDraft
Salary: $6,400 Salary: $5,800 Salary: $11,300
Salary Rank: 21 of 30 Salary Rank: 24 of 30 Salary Rank: 24 of 30
Stats Starts SIERA ERA K% BB% GB% HC% SC%
2017 15 5.27 4.26 14.0% 6.5% 38.2% 30.2% 21.5%
2018 3 3.29 5.87 24.3% 4.3% 29.2% 33.3% 27.1%

For the longest time, Lively’s first name kept popping up as Edward on the lineups page. I’m not sure if that’s his real name or what, but it gave me a chuckle every time. He’s actually been decent in his first three starts of the season, posting a 24% strikeout rate and a 4% walk rate. He’s a small favorite here, but the Pirates are a low-strikeout offense. With 15 games on the schedule tonight, we can find better options.

Quick Breakdown: Edward can be avoided in all formats.

Batter Grind Down

Pittsburgh

The Pirates left their bats at home last night, as they couldn’t get anything going against Jake Arrieta. I was clearly wrong about that one, but that happens in baseball. They draw a mediocre matchup tonight against Ben Lively. While he has looked sharp this season, he has allowed a .387 xwOBA to left-handed hitters over the last two years. There aren’t any core plays here, but there are a few decent one-off targets.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

# Player Bats wOBA xwOBA ISO HC% BB% K% GB% FD Pos. FD Sal. DK Pos. DK Sal. FDRFT Pos. FDRFT Sal.
1 Adam Frazier LEFT 0.322 0.332 0.139 29.2% 8.3% 12.0% 48.3% OF $2,400 2B/OF $3,300 IF/OF $6,600
2 Gregory Polanco LEFT 0.317 0.339 0.182 29.4% 8.3% 13.1% 39.8% OF $4,300 OF $4,300 RF $8,000
3 Starling Marte RIGHT 0.365 0.338 0.150 26.9% 7.5% 17.2% 46.9% OF $4,300 OF $4,600 CF $8,900
4 Josh Bell SWITCH 0.340 0.329 0.202 32.7% 10.8% 20.3% 52.3% 1B $3,700 1B $3,800 1B $7,600
5 Corey Dickerson LEFT 0.339 0.334 0.219 34.9% 5.8% 22.2% 37.9% OF $3,800 OF $3,800 LF $7,400
6 Francisco Cervelli RIGHT 0.326 0.338 0.134 34.4% 10.5% 19.9% 47.4% C $3,000 C $3,100 C $5,900
7 Colin Moran LEFT 0.342 0.394 0.140 40.9% 8.9% 12.5% 38.6% 3B $2,900 3B $3,200 3B $6,300
8 Jordy Mercer RIGHT 0.311 0.304 0.148 27.8% 9.4% 15.6% 47.1% SS $2,800 SS $2,900 SS $5,900
9 Ivan Nova RIGHT 0.000 0.069 0.000 4.0% 0.0% 47.9% 68.4% P $8,300 P $6,300 P $13,000

Elite Plays – None

Secondary Plays – Gregory Polanco, Josh Bell, Corey Dickerson

Stackability – ORANGE / YELLOW

Philadelphia

The Phillies are a better offense than most people give them credit for. They have a nice mix of high on-base and power hitters, but they do strikeout at a high rate. The good news is that Ivan Nova has a 12% strikeout rate against lefties. He also allows a .384 xwOBA and a 35% hard contact rate to batters from that side of the plate. Carlos Santana is one of my favorite one-off targets on the board tonight. I’m not sure we need to stack the Phillies in a slate this size, but Cesar Hernandez, Rhys Hoskins, and Nick Williams are viable as well.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

# Player Bats wOBA xwOBA ISO HC% BB% K% GB% FD Pos. FD Sal. DK Pos. DK Sal. FDRFT Pos. FDRFT Sal.
1 Cesar Hernandez SWITCH 0.347 0.310 0.114 21.5% 11.3% 21.5% 49.5% 2B $3,500 2B $4,200 2B $8,400
2 Carlos Santana SWITCH 0.346 0.392 0.210 35.9% 13.6% 17.5% 33.0% 1B $3,200 1B $3,900 1B $7,800
3 Odubel Herrera LEFT 0.337 0.313 0.169 28.4% 6.5% 21.3% 40.6% OF $3,600 OF $3,900 IF/OF $7,800
4 Rhys Hoskins RIGHT 0.427 0.411 0.312 42.4% 14.6% 22.9% 27.2% OF $4,900 OF $5,100 1B $9,700
5 Nick Williams LEFT 0.349 0.346 0.198 37.1% 6.3% 27.6% 46.8% OF $2,300 OF $2,900 LF $5,800
6 Scott Kingery RIGHT 0.322 0.326 0.200 35.3% 8.0% 24.0% 38.2% SS $3,700 3B/OF $4,100 SS $8,000
7 Andrew Knapp SWITCH 0.318 0.308 0.103 38.1% 15.5% 28.3% 56.2% C $2,200 C $2,900 C $5,900
8 Ben Lively RIGHT 0.210 0.222 0.136 26.7% 0.0% 31.8% 60.0% P $6,400 P $5,800 P $11,300
9 J.P. Crawford LEFT 0.328 0.305 0.155 20.3% 12.1% 22.2% 33.3% SS $2,500 SS $3,100 SS $6,000

Elite Plays – Carlos Santana

Secondary Plays – Cesar Hernandez, Rhys Hoskins, Nick Williams

Stackability – YELLOW

Toronto at NY Yankees – 7:05 PM ET

Toronto NY Yankees
torontomlb Marco Estrada nyyankeesmlb Sonny Gray
RIGHT RIGHT
Vegas Moneyline Vegas Over/Under
NYY-190 9.0
Stats wOBA xwOBA HC% BB% K% GB% Stats wOBA xwOBA HC% BB% K% GB%
SP vs. Left (2016-17) 0.291 0.278 24.4% 7.0% 22.0% 34.3% SP vs. Left (2016-17) 0.290 0.311 25.9% 9.7% 22.2% 52.9%
SP vs. Right (2016-17) 0.366 0.333 30.1% 10.4% 21.3% 27.5% SP vs. Right (2016-17) 0.299 0.319 29.6% 7.7% 22.8% 54.0%

Pitcher Grind Down

Marco Estrada
marco-estrada-300x200 FanDuel DraftKings FantasyDraft
Salary: $7,600 Salary: $6,700 Salary: $13,000
Salary Rank: 13 of 30 Salary Rank: 17 of 30 Salary Rank: 17 of 30
Stats Starts SIERA ERA K% BB% GB% HC% SC%
2017 33 4.69 4.98 21.8% 8.8% 30.3% 27.2% 21.4%
2018 3 4.64 4.24 19.4% 9.7% 33.3% 31.4% 21.6%

Estrada is great when he’s locked in and a great pitcher to stack against when he’s struggling. It’s hard to know which Estrada is going to show up tonight, but his form hasn’t been great. In three starts this season, he has a 4.64 SIERA with a walk rate of 10%. Fly-ball pitchers are typically easy fades in small ballparks, especially when they are matched up with an offense that is as potent as the Yankees.

Quick Breakdown: Nope, nope, nope.

Sonny Gray
sonny-gray-300x200 FanDuel DraftKings FantasyDraft
Salary: $8,200 Salary: $7,700 Salary: $15,500
Salary Rank: 9 of 30 Salary Rank: 9 of 30 Salary Rank: 8 of 30
Stats Starts SIERA ERA K% BB% GB% HC% SC%
2017 27 4.08 3.55 22.6% 8.4% 52.8% 28.0% 16.8%
2018 3 3.75 6.92 22.4% 10.5% 60.5% 27.3% 25.0%

Gray hasn’t had the best luck in the early part of the season. While his high walk rate hasn’t helped, it’s safe to say that his .409 BABIP is going to come down (league average is around .300). The advanced numbers all check out — 3.75 SIERA, 22% strikeout rate, and a 61% ground ball rate. Perhaps this is the night where positive regression shines through. I’m not afraid to target pitchers against the Blue Jays when they are on the road. They have some decent power in their lineup, but have six projected starters with at least a 22% strikeout rate against right-handed pitching.

Quick Breakdown: Gray is cheap, he’s a large favorite, and the stats check out. He’s viable as an SP2 in all formats.

Batter Grind Down

Toronto

Even though the Blue Jays are playing in a hitter-friendly ballpark, I have a hard time loading up hitters against pitchers with an elite ground ball rate and at least an average strikeout rate. When the two most likely outcomes are a strikeout or a ground ball, that’s not great for an offense. The first three batters in this lineup (Curtis Granderson, Teoscar Hernandez, and Justin Smoak) all have high fly-ball rates, but are best suited as large-field tournament plays.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

# Player Bats wOBA xwOBA ISO HC% BB% K% GB% FD Pos. FD Sal. DK Pos. DK Sal. FDRFT Pos. FDRFT Sal.
1 Curtis Granderson LEFT 0.346 0.348 0.247 35.6% 14.1% 23.0% 31.8% OF $3,100 OF $3,900 CF $7,400
2 Teoscar Hernandez RIGHT 0.412 0.348 0.362 27.3% 8.0% 33.3% 34.1% OF $3,300 OF $3,200 CF $6,800
3 Justin Smoak SWITCH 0.359 0.401 0.267 40.5% 11.7% 22.8% 33.6% 1B $4,100 1B $4,400 1B $8,100
4 Yangervis Solarte SWITCH 0.343 0.321 0.198 31.3% 7.9% 12.6% 38.1% 3B $3,800 2B/3B $4,100 2B $8,500
5 Russell Martin RIGHT 0.331 0.344 0.181 29.9% 13.2% 22.0% 52.7% C $2,300 C $3,300 C $6,300
6 Kevin Pillar RIGHT 0.283 0.307 0.127 26.7% 5.0% 15.9% 44.3% OF $3,100 OF $3,400 CF $6,300
7 Randal Grichuk RIGHT 0.313 0.324 0.243 39.7% 5.9% 31.4% 37.5% OF $2,200 OF $3,200 LF $6,600
8 Aledmys Diaz RIGHT 0.314 0.290 0.186 26.3% 2.9% 13.5% 47.3% SS $3,100 SS $3,500 SS $6,400
9 Devon Travis RIGHT 0.261 0.302 0.126 29.9% 2.0% 22.7% 41.1% 2B $2,200 2B $2,900 2B $5,700

Elite Plays – None

Secondary Plays – Curtis Granderson (GPP), Teoscar Hernandez (GPP), Justin Smoak (GPP)

Stackability – ORANGE

NY Yankees

The Yankees have as much firepower as any offense in baseball. They also have one of the best hitter’s parks in baseball. Tonight they square off against a fly-ball pitcher that gives up a lot of walks. We have to like the upside for this lineup. If you look at the table below, you can see that the Yankees have eight projected starters with a wOBA of at least .345 against right-handed pitching. I’m typically a one lineup per site type of guy, but am planning to play a few extra tonight because I love the slate. At least one of my lineups will be a Yankees’ stack.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

# Player Bats wOBA xwOBA ISO HC% BB% K% GB% FD Pos. FD Sal. DK Pos. DK Sal. FDRFT Pos. FDRFT Sal.
1 Brett Gardner LEFT 0.357 0.333 0.184 31.5% 11.4% 18.9% 43.5% OF $3,500 OF $4,000 LF $7,700
2 Aaron Judge RIGHT 0.435 0.442 0.345 43.6% 16.4% 30.2% 35.4% OF $5,100 OF $5,300 RF $10,300
3 Giancarlo Stanton RIGHT 0.377 0.370 0.304 38.2% 10.6% 27.5% 45.1% OF $4,800 OF $5,000 RF $9,800
4 Didi Gregorius LEFT 0.374 0.314 0.257 27.8% 6.5% 10.8% 35.6% SS $4,600 SS $5,200 SS $10,200
5 Gary Sanchez RIGHT 0.351 0.381 0.238 36.3% 6.1% 22.2% 43.0% C $3,900 C $4,700 C $9,400
6 Aaron Hicks SWITCH 0.360 0.345 0.230 31.0% 16.0% 20.0% 41.9% OF $3,600 OF $3,400 CF $6,600
7 Neil Walker SWITCH 0.348 0.363 0.177 35.3% 12.4% 16.8% 39.3% 1B $2,500 1B/2B $3,300 2B $6,400
8 Miguel Andujar RIGHT 0.391 0.376 0.333 44.4% 3.1% 12.5% 44.4% 3B $2,600 3B $2,800 3B $5,700
9 Tyler Wade LEFT 0.207 0.247 0.081 17.7% 8.6% 28.4% 52.0% 2B $2,000 2B $3,200 2B $6,700

Elite Plays – Aaron Judge, Didi Gregorius, Gary Sanchez

Secondary Plays – Brett Gardner, Giancarlo Stanton, Aaron Hicks, Neil Walker

Stackability – GREEN

Kansas City at Detroit – 7:10 PM ET

Kansas City Detroit
kansascitymlb Jakob Junis detroitmlb Daniel Norris
RIGHT LEFT
Vegas Moneyline Vegas Over/Under
DET-103 8.0
Stats wOBA xwOBA HC% BB% K% GB% Stats wOBA xwOBA HC% BB% K% GB%
SP vs. Left (2016-17) 0.325 0.332 34.6% 5.8% 18.2% 46.6% SP vs. Left (2016-17) 0.381 0.352 36.1% 9.2% 18.3% 38.6%
SP vs. Right (2016-17) 0.306 0.357 36.9% 5.9% 20.6% 33.1% SP vs. Right (2016-17) 0.346 0.353 42.3% 9.7% 19.7% 39.5%

Pitcher Grind Down

Jakob Junis
jakob-junis-300x200 FanDuel DraftKings FantasyDraft
Salary: $8,500 Salary: $8,300 Salary: $16,300
Salary Rank: 7 of 30 Salary Rank: 7 of 30 Salary Rank: 7 of 30
Stats Starts SIERA ERA K% BB% GB% HC% SC%
2017 16 4.49 4.30 19.0% 5.9% 40.1% 36.7% 16.9%
2018 3 3.74 1.93 21.9% 5.5% 38.0% 30.0% 22.0%

Junis was a pitcher that I had my eye on heading into the season. He showed some promise as a rooke and has come out of the gates firing this season. In three starts, he has a 3.74 SIERA with a strikeout rate of 22% and a walk rate of 6%. While I typically like targeting right-handed hitters against the Tigers, I’m a little worried about Junis in this spot. He has reverse-splits (meaning he has worse numbers against batters of the same handedness as himself) and the Tigers have a right-handed heavy lineup.

Quick Breakdown: Junis is talented, but this may not be the best spot for him.

Daniel Norris
daniel-norris-300x200 FanDuel DraftKings FantasyDraft
Salary: $6,000 Salary: $5,500 Salary: $10,800
Salary Rank: 24 of 30 Salary Rank: 25 of 30 Salary Rank: 25 of 30
Stats Starts SIERA ERA K% BB% GB% HC% SC%
2017 18 4.94 5.31 18.7% 9.6% 38.8% 41.7% 16.3%
2018 0 2.73 7.11 30.0% 10.0% 47.1% 22.2% 11.1%

The Tigers need a spot starter for the second half of this double-header (the first game isn’t included in the main slate), so Norris will get the nod. He has experience as a starter, but has yet to throw more than 64 pitches in any outing this season. I am much more willing to trust his numbers from last season than I am to trust his small sample out of the bullpen this season. Even though I like picking on the Royals, Norris offers more risk than upside.

Quick Breakdown: There are too many red flags for Norris tonight (and in general).

Batter Grind Down

Kansas City

The Royals see a positive ballpark shift playing in Detroit and they draw an exploitable matchup against Daniel Norris. Throughout his career, Norris has been a fly-ball pitcher with a low strikeout rate. He has struggled with both left and right-handed hitters, allowing a .350+ xwOBA and a 36%+ hard contact rate to both since the beginning of last season. We don’t need to go as far as stacking the Royals here, but Whit Merrifield is one of the best one-off targets on the board tonight.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. LH Pitching)

# Player Bats wOBA xwOBA ISO HC% BB% K% GB% FD Pos. FD Sal. DK Pos. DK Sal. FDRFT Pos. FDRFT Sal.
1 Jon Jay LEFT 0.333 0.347 0.020 17.7% 13.3% 19.2% 52.0% OF $2,200 OF $3,100 CF $5,500
2 Whit Merrifield RIGHT 0.343 0.340 0.183 34.5% 5.9% 15.7% 37.6% 2B $3,400 2B/OF $4,000 IF/OF $7,200
3 Mike Moustakas LEFT 0.325 0.309 0.197 30.2% 3.2% 16.2% 41.9% 3B $3,700 3B $4,200 3B $8,100
4 Lucas Duda LEFT 0.276 0.299 0.212 37.0% 6.2% 35.7% 38.4% 1B $2,300 1B $3,400 1B $6,900
5 Jorge Soler RIGHT 0.272 0.343 0.160 47.1% 10.5% 29.8% 38.2% OF $2,400 OF $3,000 RF $6,000
6 Abraham Almonte SWITCH 0.239 0.251 0.061 19.4% 10.7% 25.0% 68.6% OF $2,000 OF $2,900 RF $5,500
7 Paulo Orlando RIGHT 0.327 0.373 0.103 30.4% 0.0% 20.0% 34.8% OF $2,300 OF $2,700 RF $5,500
8 Alcides Escobar RIGHT 0.325 0.294 0.154 32.8% 5.1% 16.0% 40.3% SS $2,600 SS $2,800 SS $5,700
9 Cam Gallagher RIGHT 0.288 0.443 0.083 30.0% 7.7% 15.4% 20.0% C $2,100 C $2,500 C $4,900

Elite Plays – Whit Merrifield

Secondary Plays – Jorge Soler (GPP)

Stackability – ORANGE

Detroit

The Tigers’ offense went nuts in yesterday’s game against the Orioles, but they don’t have the most talented collection of hitters. They also draw a tougher matchup tonight, as Jake Junis has pitched well so far this season. He has good command and a slightly above-average strikeout rate. In a smaller slate, I would give Leonys Martin and Nick Castellanos a look, but they are a bit of a reach in a 15-game slate. Overall, this game doesn’t have much fantasy appeal.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

# Player Bats wOBA xwOBA ISO HC% BB% K% GB% FD Pos. FD Sal. DK Pos. DK Sal. FDRFT Pos. FDRFT Sal.
1 Leonys Martin LEFT 0.259 0.286 0.093 24.1% 7.4% 23.3% 35.8% OF $2,800 OF $3,200 CF $6,800
2 Jeimer Candelario SWITCH 0.335 0.319 0.166 26.5% 10.0% 20.0% 44.4% 3B $3,000 3B $3,300 3B $6,300
3 Miguel Cabrera RIGHT 0.292 0.375 0.143 42.2% 9.3% 20.0% 42.8% 1B $3,400 1B $4,000 1B $7,200
4 Nick Castellanos RIGHT 0.329 0.375 0.185 43.9% 6.7% 22.6% 36.1% OF $3,400 OF $4,400 IF/OF $8,300
5 Victor Martinez SWITCH 0.320 0.378 0.138 43.7% 8.8% 14.1% 37.8% C $2,300 1B $3,300 1B $6,500
6 James McCann RIGHT 0.269 0.304 0.106 35.7% 5.7% 25.1% 39.2% C $2,200 C $2,900 C $5,600
7 JaCoby Jones RIGHT 0.215 0.245 0.060 31.3% 7.0% 38.3% 53.0% OF $2,100 OF $2,800 IF/OF $5,600
8 Jose Iglesias RIGHT 0.274 0.258 0.115 27.0% 4.2% 15.1% 52.5% SS $2,000 SS $2,700 SS $5,800
9 Dixon Machado RIGHT 0.294 0.291 0.098 35.1% 4.6% 19.1% 53.8% 2B $2,400 2B $3,200 SS $6,800

Elite Plays – None

Secondary Plays – Leonys Martin, Nick Castellanos

Stackability – ORANGE

Minnesota at Tampa Bay – 7:10 PM ET

Minnesota Tampa Bay
minnesotamlb Lance Lynn tampabaymlb Chris Archer
RIGHT RIGHT
Vegas Moneyline Vegas Over/Under
TB -125 7.5
Stats wOBA xwOBA HC% BB% K% GB% Stats wOBA xwOBA HC% BB% K% GB%
SP vs. Left (2016-17) 0.354 0.360 30.8% 14.3% 15.3% 45.5% SP vs. Left (2016-17) 0.350 0.325 43.1% 8.9% 27.7% 42.5%
SP vs. Right (2016-17) 0.260 0.280 28.3% 7.4% 24.8% 43.0% SP vs. Right (2016-17) 0.284 0.293 36.0% 5.8% 29.8% 41.3%

Pitcher Grind Down

Lance Lynn
lance-lynn-300x200 FanDuel DraftKings FantasyDraft
Salary: $7,100 Salary: $6,400 Salary: $13,000
Salary Rank: 16 of 30 Salary Rank: 19 of 30 Salary Rank: 17 of 30
Stats Starts SIERA ERA K% BB% GB% HC% SC%
2017 33 4.85 3.43 19.7% 10.1% 44.0% 29.2% 21.1%
2018 2 5.63 5.00 28.6% 23.8% 50.0% 40.0% 25.0%

I’ve always been lower on Lynn than most of the DFS community. In his time with the Cardinals, he was a beneficiary of playing in a good ballpark with a good offense at his back. Now that he’s in the American League, we are starting to see him struggle. In his first two starts of the season, he has a 5.63 SIERA with a walk rate of 24%. I know his matchup against the Rays is appealing, but don’t fall for the trap.

Quick Breakdown: Lynn would need to be extremely cheap to deserve consideration tonight and he’s not.

Chris Archer
chris-archer-300x200 FanDuel DraftKings FantasyDraft
Salary: $8,000 Salary: $8,800 Salary: $17,300
Salary Rank: 11 of 30 Salary Rank: 6 of 30 Salary Rank: 6 of 30
Stats Starts SIERA ERA K% BB% GB% HC% SC%
2017 34 3.44 4.07 29.2% 7.0% 42.0% 39.4% 13.2%
2018 4 3.72 7.84 25.0% 9.4% 40.3% 38.7% 21.0%

There are plenty of great arms taking the mound tonight, but Archer is my favorite when you factor in salaries. He gives you elite strikeout upside at a fraction of the price. Sheesh, I’m starting to sound like a used car salesman. He’s been unlucky in his first four starts this season, but positive regression is due. He currently owns a 3.72 SIERA with a strikeout rate of 25%. The Twins actually have a potent offense, but Archer gets to face them at home in a pitcher-friendly ballpark. It’s time for one of his classic double-digit strikeout performances.

Quick Breakdown: Archer is an elite play in all formats.

Batter Grind Down

Minnesota

Seeing as how Chris Archer is a core play of mine, I will obviously be fading the Twins. They are playing on the road in a pitcher-friendly ballpark and they are facing a pitcher with an above-average strikeout rate and a great track record at home. They have also struggled against Archer in the past, combining for a .222 wOBA and 34 strikeouts in 105 plate appearances.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

# Player Bats wOBA xwOBA ISO HC% BB% K% GB% FD Pos. FD Sal. DK Pos. DK Sal. FDRFT Pos. FDRFT Sal.
1 Brian Dozier RIGHT 0.346 0.332 0.213 32.8% 10.6% 19.8% 38.1% 2B $4,000 2B $4,600 2B $9,300
2 Joe Mauer LEFT 0.360 0.403 0.127 40.6% 12.7% 13.5% 48.7% 1B $3,200 1B $3,200 1B $6,500
3 Miguel Sano RIGHT 0.349 0.349 0.229 45.4% 10.6% 37.9% 39.0% 3B $3,700 3B $4,100 IF/OF $8,200
4 Eddie Rosario LEFT 0.370 0.351 0.261 33.3% 7.4% 17.8% 38.5% OF $3,000 OF $3,000 LF $5,400
5 Logan Morrison LEFT 0.357 0.375 0.278 38.8% 13.4% 25.2% 33.3% 1B $2,100 1B $2,900 1B $5,600
6 Eduardo Escobar SWITCH 0.328 0.332 0.220 35.3% 5.9% 21.6% 32.3% SS $2,900 SS $3,000 SS $5,600
7 Max Kepler LEFT 0.357 0.335 0.221 36.6% 10.0% 16.5% 40.6% OF $2,400 OF $3,000 RF $6,000
8 Robbie Grossman SWITCH 0.323 0.337 0.150 28.4% 12.5% 20.6% 38.9% OF $2,000 OF $2,800 LF $5,500
9 Jason Castro LEFT 0.308 0.321 0.145 34.0% 12.2% 29.3% 40.9% C $2,100 C $2,600 C $4,800

Elite Plays – None

Secondary Plays – None

Stackability – RED

Tampa Bay

In a smaller slate, I would have some interest in the Rays’ offense. Lance Lynn has a below-average strikeout rate, the form is not good coming into this start, and he has allowed a .360 xwOBA to left-handed hitters since the beginning of last season. The problem with the Rays is that there are so many good offenses to target that they will end up falling by the wayside. If you absolutely have to target the Rays for some reason, Denard Span, Joey Wendle, and Brad Miller are your best bets.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

# Player Bats wOBA xwOBA ISO HC% BB% K% GB% FD Pos. FD Sal. DK Pos. DK Sal. FDRFT Pos. FDRFT Sal.
1 Denard Span LEFT 0.343 0.343 0.182 27.7% 7.7% 12.5% 40.4% OF $2,600 OF $2,800 CF $5,700
2 Joey Wendle LEFT 0.335 0.299 0.217 35.1% 11.1% 18.5% 56.8% 2B $2,800 2B $2,800 2B $5,900
3 Carlos Gomez RIGHT 0.343 0.349 0.211 41.4% 8.1% 29.1% 38.3% OF $2,800 OF $3,700 CF $7,400
4 C.J. Cron RIGHT 0.301 0.332 0.151 34.9% 5.6% 24.8% 34.9% 1B $3,300 1B $3,400 1B $6,800
5 Brad Miller LEFT 0.298 0.325 0.136 37.6% 16.9% 26.8% 47.6% 1B $2,700 2B $3,200 2B $6,500
6 Wilson Ramos RIGHT 0.299 0.328 0.188 31.8% 4.7% 17.6% 52.0% C $2,300 C $2,900 C $5,400
7 Mallex Smith LEFT 0.315 0.267 0.095 21.7% 9.3% 18.5% 48.9% OF $3,300 OF $3,200 CF $6,300
8 Daniel Robertson RIGHT 0.288 0.296 0.095 28.8% 11.7% 26.9% 50.9% 3B $2,900 2B/SS $3,100 2B $5,500
9 Adeiny Hechavarria RIGHT 0.274 0.293 0.112 35.3% 3.3% 19.0% 49.8% SS $2,500 SS $2,800 SS $5,700

Elite Plays – None

Secondary Plays – Denard Span, Joey Wendle, Brad Miller

Stackability – ORANGE

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About the Author

Notorious
Derek Farnsworth (Notorious)

Derek Farnsworth (aka Notorious) is a lead RotoGrinders Expert and one of the most recognizable names and faces in all of DFS. Before joining the RotoGrinders team, Derek received a Master’s Degree from the University of Utah. When he’s not busy providing content, he’s dominating the DFS industry as evidenced by his consistent top rankings in several sports and multiple Live Final appearances. Noto provides expert NBA, NFL, MLB, and PGA analysis for RotoGrinders Premium members on a daily basis and has also been nominated for five different Fantasy Sports Writer’s Association (FSWA) awards. Follow Noto on X – @RG_Notorious