MLB Grind Down: Friday, April 28th

by Derek Farnsworth (Notorious) Last Updated 2017-04-29 05:22:53

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The RotoGrinders MLB Grind Down will give you an in-depth analysis into the upcoming MLB schedule. This article will break down the numbers for every single game and give you analysis on which trends you can exploit. While matchups are a major factor in daily fantasy baseball, there are plenty of other factors to consider such as injuries, weather, and salaries.

The analysis should point you in the right direction, but it is still up to you to decipher the information and make your own selections. No sport has more variance than baseball. The best choice is not always the right choice but following the trends will win you money over time.

Note: As always, if you want to try a new DFS site, be sure to click through a RotoGrinders link and use our DraftKings promo code and FanDuel promo code to receive the best perks in the industry.

Stackability Rating System:

GREEN – A viable full stack in cash games and GPPs.
YELLOW – A viable mini-stack in cash games and full stack in GPPs.
ORANGE – A viable stack in large field GPPs.
RED – Not a recommended stack for cash games or GPPs.

Baltimore at NY Yankees – 7:05 PM ET

Stats	wOBA	HC%	BB%	K%	GB%	Stats	wOBA	HC%	BB%	K%	GB%
Baltimore						NY Yankees
			Kevin Gausman						CC Sabathia
			RIGHT						LEFT
			Vegas Moneyline						Vegas Over/Under
			NYY-124						9.0
SP vs. Left (2016-17)	0.298	31.2%	6.2%	22.1%	38.5%	SP vs. Left (2016-17)	0.287	19.3%	9.4%	24.0%	50.0%
SP vs. Right (2016-17)	0.356	29.8%	7.8%	21.6%	48.5%	SP vs. Right (2016-17)	0.315	26.9%	8.4%	18.0%	48.9%

Pitcher Grind Down

	Stats	Starts	SIERA	ERA	K%	BB%	GB%	HC%	SC%
Kevin Gausman
	FanDuel			DraftKings			FantasyDraft
	Salary:		$6,400	Salary:		$7,000	Salary:		$14,000
	Salary Rank:		26 of 30	Salary Rank:		18 of 30	Salary Rank:		17 of 30
	2016	30	3.81	3.61	23.0%	6.2%	44.1%	31.1%	18.3%
	2017	5	5.42	7.50	14.2%	12.5%	43.5%	26.4%	24.1%

Another Friday is upon us, which means another weekend and another full main slate of fantasy baseball. In an effort to be more concise, I will focus most of the analysis on the players that I am actually recommending. Gausman has been in awful form to start the year. A .361 BABIP isn’t helping, but neither is his command (12.5%). He should right the ship eventually, but is an easy fade on the road against the Yankees.

Quick Breakdown: Gausman is massively discounted across the industry, but he’s a deep GPP flier at best in this slate.

	Stats	Starts	SIERA	ERA	K%	BB%	GB%	HC%	SC%
CC Sabathia
	FanDuel			DraftKings			FantasyDraft
	Salary:		$7,500	Salary:		$6,800	Salary:		$13,500
	Salary Rank:		18 of 30	Salary Rank:		20 of 30	Salary Rank:		20 of 30
	2016	30	4.35	3.91	19.8%	8.5%	50.1%	24.7%	24.0%
	2017	4	4.93	2.70	14.4%	9.3%	41.4%	31.5%	23.3%

Sabathia has a low ERA and he induces a lot of soft contact. While those are good qualities, his low BABIP and high LOB% are unsustainable. He is no longer an elite strikeout pitcher and we have to be wary of low strikeout rates. Sabathia is a small favorite here, but Vegas is expecting a lot of runs to be scored in this game.

Quick Breakdown: Sabathia doesn’t have the strikeout upside that we are looking for in a pitcher.

Batter Grind Down

Baltimore

We used to be able to stream any right-handed batter against CC Sabathia, but he has really improved in that area in the last two seasons, holding righties to a .315 wOBA and a 27% hard contact rate. There are a lot of great offenses in play tonight, so I wouldn’t go overboard on the Orioles. Adam Jones has the best history against Sabathia, going 22-for-73 with five home runs and four walks.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. LH Pitching)

#	Player	Bats	wOBA	ISO	HC%	BB%	K%	GB%	FD Pos.	FD Sal.	DK Pos.	DK Sal.	FDRFT Pos.	FDRFT Sal.
1	Craig Gentry	RIGHT	0.249	0.111	12.1%	11.3%	24.5%	61.3%	OF	$2,200	OF	$3,100	LF	$6,000
2	Adam Jones	RIGHT	0.261	0.105	31.1%	6.5%	20.5%	39.4%	OF	$3,400	OF	$4,100	CF	$8,000
3	Manny Machado	RIGHT	0.381	0.208	39.9%	9.8%	13.4%	39.2%	3B	$3,300	3B	$4,700	3B	$9,200
4	Mark Trumbo	RIGHT	0.255	0.188	37.2%	5.7%	27.1%	41.1%	OF	$2,900	OF	$4,200	IF/OF	$8,000
5	Chris Davis	LEFT	0.314	0.175	32.6%	10.3%	33.2%	33.3%	1B	$3,400	1B	$4,300	IF/OF	$8,400
6	Trey Mancini	RIGHT	0.400	0.389	26.9%	2.7%	27.0%	57.7%	1B	$2,900	1B/OF	$3,200	1B	$6,400
7	Welington Castillo	RIGHT	0.351	0.217	50.5%	8.0%	23.3%	40.8%	C	$3,100	C	$3,600	C	$7,200
8	Jonathan Schoop	RIGHT	0.295	0.159	21.9%	4.9%	23.6%	48.4%	2B	$3,400	2B	$3,600	2B	$7,200
9	J.J. Hardy	RIGHT	0.312	0.157	42.2%	8.5%	14.8%	45.9%	SS	$2,200	SS	$3,000	SS	$6,000

Elite Plays – None

Secondary Plays – Adam Jones, Manny Machado, Welington Castillo

Stackability – ORANGE

NY Yankees

Kevin Gausman is a reverse-splits pitcher. Ordinarily, we would be more interesting in the Yankees’ left-handed batters at home, but Gausman has held lefties to a .298 wOBA in the last two seasons. In that same stretch, he has given up a .356 wOBA to righties. There are better offenses to target in this slate, but we should take note of the Yankees’ high implied run total. They could make for an interesting stack in tournaments. Aaron Judge is a great one-off candidate, as he has a massive 47% hard contact rate against right-handed pitching.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

#	Player	Bats	wOBA	ISO	HC%	BB%	K%	GB%	FD Pos.	FD Sal.	DK Pos.	DK Sal.	FDRFT Pos.	FDRFT Sal.
1	Brett Gardner	LEFT	0.328	0.104	26.2%	13.3%	16.8%	50.8%	OF	$3,100	OF	$4,000	LF	$7,600
2	Chase Headley	SWITCH	0.334	0.170	31.3%	10.9%	25.7%	42.5%	3B	$3,500	3B	$3,900	3B	$7,800
3	Matt Holliday	RIGHT	0.331	0.183	35.1%	9.8%	18.5%	52.1%	OF	$2,800	1B/OF	$4,100	IF/OF	$8,000
4	Jacoby Ellsbury	LEFT	0.333	0.130	27.1%	9.5%	12.4%	47.2%	OF	$3,500	OF	$3,800	CF	$7,600
5	Starlin Castro	RIGHT	0.326	0.170	30.5%	4.0%	19.3%	49.9%	2B	$3,100	2B	$3,500	2B	$6,800
6	Aaron Judge	RIGHT	0.322	0.250	47.3%	7.6%	35.6%	43.2%	OF	$3,800	OF	$4,300	RF	$8,400
7	Greg Bird	LEFT	0.203	0.133	46.7%	8.0%	30.0%	31.0%	1B	$2,600	1B	$4,000	1B	$7,600
8	Didi Gregorius	LEFT	0.304	0.179	25.1%	3.4%	16.1%	40.7%	SS	$2,900	SS	$3,500	SS	$6,900
9	Austin Romine	RIGHT	0.292	0.130	22.6%	5.5%	17.4%	41.0%	C	$2,500	C	$2,800	C	$5,600

Elite Plays – Aaron Judge (GPP)

Secondary Plays – Brett Gardner, Chase Headley, Matt Holliday, Jacoby Ellsbury, Starlin Castro, Aaron Judge (Cash)

Stackability – YELLOW

NY Mets at Washington – 7:05 PM ET

Stats	wOBA	HC%	BB%	K%	GB%	Stats	wOBA	HC%	BB%	K%	GB%
NY Mets						Washington
			Jacob deGrom						Max Scherzer
			RIGHT						RIGHT
			Vegas Moneyline						Vegas Over/Under
			WAS-158						7.0
SP vs. Left (2016-17)	0.273	29.3%	6.7%	23.9%	44.9%	SP vs. Left (2016-17)	0.321	29.7%	9.4%	24.7%	32.1%
SP vs. Right (2016-17)	0.315	33.2%	6.4%	25.8%	48.2%	SP vs. Right (2016-17)	0.197	27.0%	3.1%	38.8%	34.2%

Pitcher Grind Down

	Stats	Starts	SIERA	ERA	K%	BB%	GB%	HC%	SC%
Jacob deGrom
	FanDuel			DraftKings			FantasyDraft
	Salary:		$9,600	Salary:		$10,500	Salary:		$20,400
	Salary Rank:		4 of 30	Salary Rank:		2 of 30	Salary Rank:		2 of 30
	2016	24	3.66	3.04	23.7%	6.0%	45.6%	31.3%	19.0%
	2017	4	2.97	2.55	31.7%	9.9%	52.5%	30.5%	25.4%

The poor Mets just can’t stay healthy. The latest victim was Yoenis Cespedes, who hurt his hamstring legging out a double against the Braves yesterday. Mets’ injuries aside, there are a lot of positives that we can take from deGrom’s first four starts this season, most notably his improved velocity (95+ MPH) and his swinging strike rate (17.8%). He pitched well against this same Nationals’ team in his last start, but has to face them in their backyard this time around. DeGrom is an intriguing leverage play off of Max Scherzer in tournaments, but it’s hard not to love Mad Max in this spot.

Quick Breakdown: Viable in tournaments, especially as a leverage play against Scherzer.

	Stats	Starts	SIERA	ERA	K%	BB%	GB%	HC%	SC%
Max Scherzer
	FanDuel			DraftKings			FantasyDraft
	Salary:		$11,600	Salary:		$12,700	Salary:		$24,600
	Salary Rank:		1 of 30	Salary Rank:		1 of 30	Salary Rank:		1 of 30
	2016	34	3.05	2.96	31.5%	6.2%	33.0%	30.1%	22.2%
	2017	4	2.91	1.95	31.4%	7.6%	33.9%	14.3%	22.2%

Scherzer picked up right where he left off last season. His numbers are eerily similar to where they were a year ago with the exception of his hard contact rate. He has one of the highest strikeout rates in all of baseball, he is pitching at home in a great park for fly-ball pitchers, and he is facing a short-handed Mets’ team that seems to lose a player to injury every other day. Even though run support could be limited with Jacob deGrom pitching opposite him, Scherzer is the premier pitching option in the slate tonight.

Quick Breakdown: Elite play in all formats, especially in a cash game setting where you want those guaranteed points from your pitcher.

Batter Grind Down

NY Mets

This game is all about the pitching. Max Scherzer has an elite strikeout rate and has held both left and right-handed hitters under a 30% hard contact rate. We’ve seen crazier things happen before in baseball, but why risk it in a 15 game slate?

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

#	Player	Bats	wOBA	ISO	HC%	BB%	K%	GB%	FD Pos.	FD Sal.	DK Pos.	DK Sal.	FDRFT Pos.	FDRFT Sal.
1	Michael Conforto	LEFT	0.360	0.246	42.0%	11.0%	24.2%	36.3%	OF	$3,300	OF	$3,200	LF	$6,300
2	Asdrubal Cabrera	SWITCH	0.339	0.196	35.0%	6.8%	18.2%	35.6%	SS	$3,100	SS	$3,400	SS	$6,800
3	Jay Bruce	LEFT	0.373	0.292	39.7%	8.9%	20.1%	35.9%	OF	$3,700	1B/OF	$3,600	RF	$7,200
4	Neil Walker	SWITCH	0.320	0.163	34.4%	9.8%	19.5%	35.8%	2B	$2,800	2B	$3,300	2B	$6,600
5	Curtis Granderson	LEFT	0.336	0.226	36.0%	12.8%	19.8%	35.4%	OF	$2,400	OF	$3,600	CF	$7,200
6	Travis d’Arnaud	RIGHT	0.277	0.084	32.3%	6.1%	17.1%	51.4%	C	$2,500	C	$2,800	C	$5,600
7	Jose Reyes	SWITCH	0.262	0.112	23.7%	6.8%	20.1%	35.6%	3B	$2,200	3B	$3,400	SS	$6,600
8	Juan Lagares	RIGHT	0.282	0.175	24.2%	8.6%	19.4%	41.3%	OF	$2,100	OF	$2,500	CF	$4,800
9	Jacob deGrom	RIGHT	0.188	0.026	18.2%	6.7%	20.0%	67.9%	P	$9,600	P	$10,500	P	$20,400

Elite Plays – None

Secondary Plays – None

Stackability – RED

Washington

There will be some people that try to talk themselves into playing the Nationals’ lefties (Bryce Harper and Daniel Murphy) due to low ownership, but there are better ways to differentiate in this slate. Jacob deGrom is an elite pitcher with a high strikeout rate. He has also been tougher on left-handed hitters than he has been on right-handed hitters in the last two seasons.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

#	Player	Bats	wOBA	ISO	HC%	BB%	K%	GB%	FD Pos.	FD Sal.	DK Pos.	DK Sal.	FDRFT Pos.	FDRFT Sal.
1	Adam Eaton	LEFT	0.352	0.162	32.1%	9.2%	17.1%	50.6%	OF	$3,700	OF	$4,300	CF	$8,400
2	Trea Turner	RIGHT	0.409	0.257	34.8%	4.5%	18.5%	43.0%	SS	$4,100	SS	$4,900	IF/OF	$9,600
3	Bryce Harper	LEFT	0.372	0.224	35.5%	18.9%	15.5%	38.9%	OF	$4,800	OF	$5,200	RF	$10,000
4	Ryan Zimmerman	RIGHT	0.299	0.162	33.8%	5.3%	24.4%	45.2%	1B	$4,500	1B	$4,300	1B	$8,400
5	Daniel Murphy	LEFT	0.417	0.257	39.7%	5.6%	9.4%	35.0%	2B	$4,000	2B	$4,600	2B	$9,000
6	Anthony Rendon	RIGHT	0.330	0.169	34.8%	8.6%	18.4%	37.5%	3B	$2,600	3B	$3,900	3B	$7,800
7	Jayson Werth	RIGHT	0.295	0.136	31.5%	10.7%	24.8%	42.9%	OF	$2,900	OF	$3,600	LF	$7,200
8	Matt Wieters	SWITCH	0.316	0.177	31.9%	7.1%	17.5%	37.2%	C	$2,700	C	$3,200	C	$6,400
9	Max Scherzer	RIGHT	0.181	0.015	22.2%	2.5%	30.9%	75.6%	P	$11,600	P	$12,700	P	$24,600

Elite Plays – None

Secondary Plays – None

Stackability – RED

Tampa Bay at Toronto – 7:07 PM ET

Stats	wOBA	HC%	BB%	K%	GB%	Stats	wOBA	HC%	BB%	K%	GB%
Tampa Bay						Toronto
			Blake Snell						Marcus Stroman
			LEFT						RIGHT
			Vegas Moneyline						Vegas Over/Under
			TOR-140						8.5
SP vs. Left (2016-17)	0.295	31.7%	12.2%	26.5%	50.0%	SP vs. Left (2016-17)	0.316	34.4%	7.2%	18.4%	59.8%
SP vs. Right (2016-17)	0.324	31.4%	13.6%	22.0%	34.5%	SP vs. Right (2016-17)	0.307	29.4%	5.0%	19.5%	59.8%

Pitcher Grind Down

	Stats	Starts	SIERA	ERA	K%	BB%	GB%	HC%	SC%
Blake Snell
	FanDuel			DraftKings			FantasyDraft
	Salary:		$7,100	Salary:		$7,200	Salary:		$14,400
	Salary Rank:		20 of 30	Salary Rank:		16 of 30	Salary Rank:		15 of 30
	2016	19	4.53	3.54	24.4%	12.7%	36.5%	31.4%	22.2%
	2017	4	5.78	3.38	16.1%	16.1%	41.0%	31.8%	19.1%

Snell could be a very good pitcher if he could learn how to control his pitches. He is a hard throwing lefty with strikeout upside, especially when he gets hitters into pitcher-friendly counts. I really want to play him tonight against an ice-cold Blue Jays’ offense, but I can’t talk myself into playing a pitcher that has as many walks as strikeouts after four starts.

Quick Breakdown: Deep GPP flier against the frozen Jays.

	Stats	Starts	SIERA	ERA	K%	BB%	GB%	HC%	SC%
Marcus Stroman
	FanDuel			DraftKings			FantasyDraft
	Salary:		$9,100	Salary:		$9,100	Salary:		$17,600
	Salary Rank:		5 of 30	Salary Rank:		5 of 30	Salary Rank:		5 of 30
	2016	32	3.62	4.37	19.4%	6.3%	60.1%	31.8%	18.3%
	2017	4	3.45	3.10	15.7%	4.4%	57.8%	33.0%	19.8%

Stroman throws a lot of strikes and gets a lot of ground balls. Those are two qualities that we like to see in a pitcher, especially one whose home ballpark is the Rogers Centre. Stroman has never been a high strikeout pitcher, but his 15.4% strikeout rate this season is somewhat concerning. The good news is that he hasn’t experienced a dip in velocity. He has actually thrown a lot more fastballs (72%) this season than he ever has in his career. The Rays are one of those matchups that has boom or bust potential for a pitcher. They have scored the third most runs in the American League this season, but also strikeout at a high rate against right-handed pitching. Stroman will not be popular tonight, but I don’t mind taking a share or two of him in tournaments.

Quick Breakdown: I wish Stroman was a little cheaper, but he’s still worth a look as a deep GPP flier.

Batter Grind Down

Tampa Bay

The Rays see a favorable ballpark shift playing in the Rogers Centre, but aren’t high on my list of potential teams to target in this slate. Marcus Stroman has the highest ground ball rate of any pitcher in the slate (with the exception of Kyle Freeland, who only has a few starts under his belt). He is also tough on both left and right-handed hitters, holding both under a .320 wOBA.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

#	Player	Bats	wOBA	ISO	HC%	BB%	K%	GB%	FD Pos.	FD Sal.	DK Pos.	DK Sal.	FDRFT Pos.	FDRFT Sal.
1	Corey Dickerson	LEFT	0.336	0.263	30.8%	6.5%	22.7%	34.0%	OF	$3,100	OF	$3,200	LF	$6,300
2	Kevin Kiermaier	LEFT	0.312	0.152	30.9%	9.4%	17.9%	44.7%	OF	$2,900	OF	$3,300	CF	$6,400
3	Evan Longoria	RIGHT	0.355	0.253	37.1%	6.3%	21.8%	32.6%	3B	$3,200	3B	$4,100	3B	$8,100
4	Brad Miller	LEFT	0.338	0.245	36.1%	8.6%	25.0%	45.3%	2B	$3,100	2B	$3,400	SS	$6,800
5	Steve Souza	RIGHT	0.338	0.182	31.8%	8.1%	31.3%	40.3%	OF	$3,300	OF	$3,400	RF	$6,800
6	Logan Morrison	LEFT	0.322	0.195	36.3%	9.5%	21.4%	42.5%	1B	$2,800	1B	$3,100	1B	$6,000
7	Tim Beckham	RIGHT	0.289	0.177	40.4%	4.2%	30.5%	44.3%	SS	$2,700	SS	$2,800	SS	$5,400
8	Shane Peterson	LEFT	0.390	0.217	26.7%	0.0%	34.8%	40.0%	OF	$2,200	OF	$2,100	LF	$4,200
9	Derek Norris	RIGHT	0.230	0.130	31.7%	6.5%	32.7%	35.3%	C	$2,100	C	$2,600	C	$5,100

Elite Plays – None

Secondary Plays – Corey Dickerson, Evan Longoria

Stackability – ORANGE

Toronto

The Blue Jays’ offense is in shambles right now, but they are built to hit left-handed pitching and they are back in the hitter-friendly confines of the Rogers Centre. Maybe watching the Raptors advance to the second round of the NBA playoffs will inspire this offense a little. Blake Snell has struggled with his command at the major league level and gives up a lot of fly balls to right-handed hitters. There are a few intriguing plays here and it sounds crazy, but a Blue Jays’ stack at less than 5% ownership is at least somewhat appealing.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. LH Pitching)

#	Player	Bats	wOBA	ISO	HC%	BB%	K%	GB%	FD Pos.	FD Sal.	DK Pos.	DK Sal.	FDRFT Pos.	FDRFT Sal.
1	Kevin Pillar	RIGHT	0.316	0.145	32.9%	2.3%	15.1%	36.5%	OF	$3,000	OF	$3,200	CF	$6,300
2	Ezequiel Carrera	LEFT	0.359	0.120	24.1%	6.2%	22.2%	56.4%	OF	$2,700	OF	$2,700	RF	$5,200
3	Jose Bautista	RIGHT	0.298	0.173	38.4%	13.4%	18.9%	38.4%	OF	$3,300	OF	$4,100	RF	$8,100
4	Kendrys Morales	SWITCH	0.391	0.223	39.1%	5.1%	19.4%	36.6%	1B	$2,900	1B	$3,600	1B	$7,200
5	Justin Smoak	SWITCH	0.314	0.173	38.1%	8.8%	17.5%	39.3%	1B	$2,600	1B	$2,900	1B	$5,600
6	Russell Martin	RIGHT	0.322	0.158	46.2%	16.6%	29.7%	43.6%	C	$2,800	C	$3,500	C	$6,900
7	Steve Pearce	RIGHT	0.371	0.245	42.5%	12.1%	25.0%	35.6%	OF	$2,400	OF	$2,900	1B	$5,700
8	Devon Travis	RIGHT	0.276	0.090	23.6%	1.8%	20.2%	46.1%	2B	$2,200	2B	$3,700	2B	$7,200
9	Ryan Goins	LEFT	0.208	0.045	23.5%	0.0%	22.2%	61.8%	2B	$2,400	2B/SS	$2,200	2B	$4,200

Elite Plays – None

Secondary Plays – Kevin Pillar, Jose Bautista, Kendrys Morales, Justin Smoak, Russell Martin, Steve Pearce

Stackability – YELLOW

Seattle at Cleveland – 7:10 PM ET

Stats	wOBA	HC%	BB%	K%	GB%	Stats	wOBA	HC%	BB%	K%	GB%
Seattle						Cleveland
			Ariel Miranda						Carlos Carrasco
			LEFT						RIGHT
			Vegas Moneyline						Vegas Over/Under
			CLE-200						8.5
SP vs. Left (2016-17)	0.357	32.7%	10.0%	15.7%	51.0%	SP vs. Left (2016-17)	0.308	37.0%	7.4%	24.4%	44.5%
SP vs. Right (2016-17)	0.310	35.9%	6.4%	19.9%	30.1%	SP vs. Right (2016-17)	0.280	32.0%	4.7%	26.1%	51.3%

Pitcher Grind Down

	Stats	Starts	SIERA	ERA	K%	BB%	GB%	HC%	SC%
Ariel Miranda
	FanDuel			DraftKings			FantasyDraft
	Salary:		$6,600	Salary:		$5,200	Salary:		$10,400
	Salary Rank:		23 of 30	Salary Rank:		29 of 30	Salary Rank:		29 of 30
	2016	10	4.77	3.88	19.0%	7.8%	31.2%	37.1%	17.7%
	2017	4	3.93	4.35	19.1%	5.6%	43.8%	30.3%	22.7%

Miranda’s numbers are pretty mediocre across the board this season. He doesn’t do anything particularly well and comes into tonight’s game as a huge underdog against the Indians, who have added a few pieces to bolster their lineup against left-handed pitching.

Quick Breakdown: We need to feel confident in our pitcher selections, which makes Miranda an easy fade tonight.

	Stats	Starts	SIERA	ERA	K%	BB%	GB%	HC%	SC%
Carlos Carrasco
	FanDuel			DraftKings			FantasyDraft
	Salary:		$10,800	Salary:		$10,200	Salary:		$19,800
	Salary Rank:		2 of 30	Salary Rank:		3 of 30	Salary Rank:		3 of 30
	2016	25	3.44	3.32	25.0%	5.7%	48.5%	36.4%	16.0%
	2017	4	3.11	1.65	27.0%	7.0%	46.9%	20.0%	23.1%

Carrasco has been sharp in his first four starts. He currently has a 27% strikeout rate and a soft contact rate (23%) that is higher than his hard contact rate (20%). He is a hard-throwing righty that doesn’t walk batters. I have mixed feelings about his matchup against the Mariners, but Vegas doesn’t seem overly concerned about it. Carrasco is currently listed as a -200 favorite at home. Carrasco should be fine and his price point is playable, the Mariners just don’t strikeout very often against right-handed pitching.

Quick Breakdown: I am not going to talk you out of playing Carrasco, but I’d rather find the extra cap space to move up to Max Scherzer.

Batter Grind Down

Seattle

The Mariners are an easy fade tonight against Carlos Carrasco. He has an elite strikeout rate, an above-average ground ball rate, and he has really limited the hard contact against him this season.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

#	Player	Bats	wOBA	ISO	HC%	BB%	K%	GB%	FD Pos.	FD Sal.	DK Pos.	DK Sal.	FDRFT Pos.	FDRFT Sal.
1	Jean Segura	RIGHT	0.384	0.188	29.8%	5.0%	12.6%	52.9%	SS	$3,300	SS	$4,800	SS	$9,300
2	Jarrod Dyson	LEFT	0.299	0.095	16.6%	7.6%	11.1%	52.4%	OF	$2,900	OF	$3,500	CF	$6,900
3	Robinson Cano	LEFT	0.392	0.263	38.2%	8.2%	12.4%	43.1%	2B	$3,400	2B	$4,500	2B	$8,800
4	Nelson Cruz	RIGHT	0.369	0.229	34.6%	9.0%	24.3%	44.0%	OF	$4,000	OF	$4,900	RF	$9,600
5	Kyle Seager	LEFT	0.382	0.220	39.2%	12.3%	14.9%	34.8%	3B	$3,200	3B	$4,400	3B	$8,700
6	Taylor Motter	RIGHT	0.306	0.245	38.5%	9.6%	21.9%	38.5%	SS	$3,000	SS	$3,800	SS	$7,600
7	Daniel Vogelbach	LEFT	0.224	0.000	27.3%	14.3%	33.3%	45.5%	1B	$2,200	1B	$2,600	1B	$5,100
8	Guillermo Heredia	SWITCH	0.336	0.095	17.1%	12.0%	14.0%	48.5%	OF	$2,500	OF	$3,200	LF	$6,300
9	Mike Zunino	RIGHT	0.306	0.215	34.6%	6.8%	34.4%	29.2%	C	$2,200	C	$3,400	C	$6,600

Elite Plays – None

Secondary Plays – None

Stackability – RED

Cleveland

The Indians hit left-handed pitching well, they take a lot of walks, and they draw a favorable matchup against Ariel Miranda. This is a nice start to a recipe for a successful stack. Since the start of last season, Ariel Miranda has allowed a .359 wOBA to left-handed hitters and a 36% hard contact rate to right-handed hitters. Edwin Encarnacion mashes left-handed pitching to the tune of a .370 wOBA, a 40% hard contact rate, and a 19% walk rate. He is an elite play at first base in all formats and you can fill out your Indians’ stacks around him.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. LH Pitching)

#	Player	Bats	wOBA	ISO	HC%	BB%	K%	GB%	FD Pos.	FD Sal.	DK Pos.	DK Sal.	FDRFT Pos.	FDRFT Sal.
1	Carlos Santana	SWITCH	0.322	0.129	30.2%	11.6%	9.5%	56.0%	1B	$4,000	1B/OF	$4,600	1B	$9,000
2	Francisco Lindor	SWITCH	0.323	0.136	31.0%	7.0%	15.5%	46.2%	SS	$3,900	SS	$4,600	SS	$8,800
3	Michael Brantley	LEFT	0.339	0.167	45.5%	6.1%	27.3%	45.5%	OF	$4,300	OF	$4,800	LF	$9,300
4	Edwin Encarnacion	RIGHT	0.370	0.231	40.4%	19.2%	21.4%	38.5%	1B	$3,600	1B	$4,600	1B	$8,800
5	Jose Ramirez	SWITCH	0.353	0.148	33.9%	7.4%	12.1%	42.4%	3B	$4,000	2B/3B	$4,300	IF/OF	$8,400
6	Jason Kipnis	LEFT	0.333	0.177	29.2%	6.3%	25.3%	42.6%	2B	$3,200	2B	$4,500	2B	$8,800
7	Brandon Guyer	RIGHT	0.399	0.200	29.7%	5.0%	12.2%	36.7%	OF	$2,300	OF	$3,400	LF	$6,800
8	Yan Gomes	RIGHT	0.338	0.190	23.0%	5.7%	23.0%	41.7%	C	$2,300	C	$3,200	C	$6,400
9	Austin Jackson	RIGHT	0.280	0.129	42.9%	10.0%	20.0%	43.8%	OF	$2,600	OF	$3,200	CF	$6,300

Elite Plays – Edwin Encarnacion

Secondary Plays – Carlos Santana, Francisco Lindor, Michael Brantley, Jose Ramirez, Brandon Guyer

Stackability – YELLOW / GREEN

Pittsburgh at Miami – 7:10 PM ET

Stats	wOBA	HC%	BB%	K%	GB%	Stats	wOBA	HC%	BB%	K%	GB%
Pittsburgh						Miami
			Jameson Taillon						Adam Conley
			RIGHT						LEFT
			Vegas Moneyline						Vegas Over/Under
			MIA-105						7.5
SP vs. Left (2016-17)	0.301	31.3%	6.3%	17.0%	52.0%	SP vs. Left (2016-17)	0.332	25.2%	8.2%	13.9%	46.9%
SP vs. Right (2016-17)	0.296	32.8%	4.0%	23.6%	54.0%	SP vs. Right (2016-17)	0.311	34.1%	11.2%	23.2%	35.0%

Pitcher Grind Down

	Stats	Starts	SIERA	ERA	K%	BB%	GB%	HC%	SC%
Jameson Taillon
	FanDuel			DraftKings			FantasyDraft
	Salary:		$8,100	Salary:		$7,400	Salary:		$14,800
	Salary Rank:		10 of 30	Salary Rank:		14 of 30	Salary Rank:		14 of 30
	2016	18	3.61	3.38	20.3%	4.1%	52.4%	33.2%	17.3%
	2017	4	4.00	2.13	19.4%	9.7%	54.9%	26.4%	18.1%

Taillon is the type of play that can take down a large field tournament. I’m not saying that he specifically is the play, but he’s a mid-range pitching option with decent strikeout upside that no one will be paying attention to tonight. He has an electric fastball (95+ MPH) and an above-average ground ball rate. He also has good command in most of his starts. He’s playing in a pitcher-friendly ballpark tonight, but the Marlins have a low strikeout rate against right-handed pitching.

Quick Breakdown: Taillon may not be the pitcher to take down a large GPP, but he’s a decent tournament flier that will be under 5% owned.

	Stats	Starts	SIERA	ERA	K%	BB%	GB%	HC%	SC%
Adam Conley
	FanDuel			DraftKings			FantasyDraft
	Salary:		$8,400	Salary:		$6,300	Salary:		$12,600
	Salary Rank:		9 of 30	Salary Rank:		24 of 30	Salary Rank:		23 of 30
	2016	25	4.64	3.85	21.2%	10.6%	38.2%	31.4%	20.5%
	2017	3	4.49	3.00	18.9%	9.5%	38.0%	34.0%	18.9%

Conley pops up on my radar every few starts when he is pitching at home in a favorable matchup. He has at least one and a half of the two criteria tonight, as he takes on the Pirates. Conley had a 21% strikeout rate last season and he has a swinging strike rate of 10.4% this season. The Pirates aren’t a high strikeout offense as a whole, but David Freese and Gregory Polanco both have high strikeout rates against southpaws.

Quick Breakdown: Both of the pitchers in this game have some tournament appeal.

Batter Grind Down

Pittsburgh

There are 15 games in this slate, so we shouldn’t get too excited about either offense in a game that features a total of 7.5 runs. Adam Conley has pitched well at home in his career, but has allowed a 34% hard contact rate to right-handed hitters if you want to look at Josh Harrison, Andrew McCutchen, or David Freese as one-off targets in tournaments.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. LH Pitching)

#	Player	Bats	wOBA	ISO	HC%	BB%	K%	GB%	FD Pos.	FD Sal.	DK Pos.	DK Sal.	FDRFT Pos.	FDRFT Sal.
1	Josh Harrison	RIGHT	0.371	0.171	37.2%	3.3%	14.9%	35.9%	2B	$3,000	2B/3B	$3,400	2B	$6,800
2	Jordy Mercer	RIGHT	0.330	0.172	26.2%	13.9%	13.9%	40.2%	SS	$2,200	SS	$2,900	SS	$5,700
3	Andrew McCutchen	RIGHT	0.337	0.198	32.7%	13.8%	17.8%	39.4%	OF	$3,800	OF	$4,200	RF	$8,100
4	Gregory Polanco	LEFT	0.325	0.198	29.6%	9.6%	30.4%	45.7%	OF	$3,100	OF	$4,100	LF	$8,000
5	David Freese	RIGHT	0.411	0.202	44.2%	14.1%	25.8%	58.4%	3B	$2,500	3B	$2,900	3B	$5,600
6	Francisco Cervelli	RIGHT	0.337	0.014	43.1%	13.3%	15.7%	59.6%	C	$2,500	C	$2,900	C	$5,600
7	Jose Osuna	RIGHT	0.601	0.556	25.0%	10.0%	10.0%	25.0%	1B	$2,100	1B/OF	$2,700	IF/OF	$5,400
8	Josh Bell	SWITCH	0.235	0.079	24.2%	9.3%	14.0%	51.5%	1B	$2,700	1B	$3,000	IF/OF	$6,000
9	Jameson Taillon	RIGHT	0.146	0.000	0.0%	0.0%	33.3%	66.7%	P	$8,100	P	$7,400	P	$14,800

Elite Plays – None

Secondary Plays – Josh Harrison, Andrew McCutchen, David Freese

Stackability – ORANGE

Miami

I have more interest in these two pitchers than I do in these two offenses. And that’s saying something, because my interest in these pitchers is mild at best. Jameson Taillon has a high ground ball rate and has held both left and right-handed hitters under a .305 wOBA. Christian Yelich has good numbers against right-handed pitching, but has one of the highest ground ball rates of any hitter in baseball, so I only use him when he’s facing a fly-ball pitcher.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

#	Player	Bats	wOBA	ISO	HC%	BB%	K%	GB%	FD Pos.	FD Sal.	DK Pos.	DK Sal.	FDRFT Pos.	FDRFT Sal.
1	Dee Gordon	LEFT	0.294	0.074	19.4%	5.2%	16.4%	57.2%	2B	$3,400	2B	$4,000	2B	$7,800
2	Martin Prado	RIGHT	0.304	0.106	25.9%	5.9%	11.0%	49.4%	3B	$3,000	2B/3B	$3,300	3B	$6,400
3	Christian Yelich	LEFT	0.382	0.215	41.8%	12.3%	20.3%	54.8%	OF	$3,900	OF	$4,200	LF	$8,000
4	Giancarlo Stanton	RIGHT	0.334	0.235	39.3%	9.3%	29.9%	38.5%	OF	$4,100	OF	$4,500	RF	$8,700
5	Marcell Ozuna	RIGHT	0.326	0.176	36.7%	7.2%	20.0%	46.4%	OF	$3,400	OF	$3,500	CF	$6,800
6	J.T. Realmuto	RIGHT	0.352	0.123	30.8%	5.3%	15.8%	50.9%	C	$2,800	C	$3,400	C	$6,800
7	Justin Bour	LEFT	0.343	0.224	36.1%	12.4%	17.1%	43.6%	1B	$3,100	1B	$3,100	1B	$6,000
8	Adeiny Hechavarria	RIGHT	0.252	0.067	29.4%	5.1%	12.0%	48.6%	SS	$2,000	SS	$2,500	SS	$4,800
9	Adam Conley	LEFT	0.127	0.000	8.3%	2.3%	43.2%	66.7%	P	$8,400	P	$6,300	P	$12,600

MLB Grind Down: Friday, April 28th

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Stackability Rating System:

Baltimore at NY Yankees – 7:05 PM ET

Pitcher Grind Down

Batter Grind Down

Baltimore

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. LH Pitching)

Elite Plays – None

Secondary Plays – Adam Jones, Manny Machado, Welington Castillo

Stackability – ORANGE

NY Yankees

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

Elite Plays – Aaron Judge (GPP)

Secondary Plays – Brett Gardner, Chase Headley, Matt Holliday, Jacoby Ellsbury, Starlin Castro, Aaron Judge (Cash)

Stackability – YELLOW

NY Mets at Washington – 7:05 PM ET

Pitcher Grind Down

Batter Grind Down

NY Mets

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

Elite Plays – None

Secondary Plays – None

Stackability – RED

Washington

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

Elite Plays – None

Secondary Plays – None

Stackability – RED

Tampa Bay at Toronto – 7:07 PM ET

Pitcher Grind Down

Batter Grind Down

Tampa Bay

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

Elite Plays – None

Secondary Plays – Corey Dickerson, Evan Longoria

Stackability – ORANGE

Toronto

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. LH Pitching)

Elite Plays – None

Secondary Plays – Kevin Pillar, Jose Bautista, Kendrys Morales, Justin Smoak, Russell Martin, Steve Pearce

Stackability – YELLOW

Seattle at Cleveland – 7:10 PM ET

Pitcher Grind Down

Batter Grind Down

Seattle

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

Elite Plays – None

Secondary Plays – None

Stackability – RED

Cleveland

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. LH Pitching)

Elite Plays – Edwin Encarnacion

Secondary Plays – Carlos Santana, Francisco Lindor, Michael Brantley, Jose Ramirez, Brandon Guyer

Stackability – YELLOW / GREEN

Pittsburgh at Miami – 7:10 PM ET

Pitcher Grind Down

Batter Grind Down

Pittsburgh

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. LH Pitching)

Elite Plays – None

Secondary Plays – Josh Harrison, Andrew McCutchen, David Freese

Stackability – ORANGE

Miami

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

Elite Plays – None

Secondary Plays – Giancarlo Stanton

Stackability – ORANGE

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