Sign In Get the App $ $

MLB Grind Down: Friday, August 11th

by Derek Farnsworth (Notorious) Last Updated 2017-08-12 01:46:21

Jump to Page 1 2 3

The RotoGrinders MLB Grind Down will give you an in-depth analysis into the upcoming MLB schedule. This article will break down the numbers for every single game and give you analysis on which trends you can exploit. While matchups are a major factor in daily fantasy baseball, there are plenty of other factors to consider such as injuries, weather, and salaries.

The analysis should point you in the right direction, but it is still up to you to decipher the information and make your own selections. No sport has more variance than baseball. The best choice is not always the right choice but following the trends will win you money over time.

Note: As always, if you want to try a new DFS site, be sure to click through a RotoGrinders link and use our DraftKings promo code, FanDuel promo code, and FantasyDraft promo code to receive the best perks in the industry.

Stackability Rating System:

GREEN – A viable full stack in cash games and GPPs.
YELLOW – A viable mini-stack in cash games and full stack in GPPs.
ORANGE – A viable stack in large field GPPs.
RED – Not a recommended stack for cash games or GPPs.

NY Mets at Philadelphia – 7:05 PM ET

NY Mets Philadelphia
Article Image Seth Lugo Article Image Nick Pivetta
RIGHT RIGHT
Vegas Moneyline Vegas Over/Under
PHI-102 9.5
Stats wOBA xwOBA HC% BB% K% GB% Stats wOBA xwOBA HC% BB% K% GB%
SP vs. Left (2016-17) 0.305 0.351 35.3% 9.5% 14.4% 40.4% SP vs. Left (2016-17) 0.291 0.298 31.2% 11.7% 24.6% 39.4%
SP vs. Right (2016-17) 0.314 0.327 37.4% 4.5% 19.1% 43.1% SP vs. Right (2016-17) 0.412 0.369 44.7% 7.8% 21.9% 41.2%

Pitcher Grind Down

Seth Lugo
Article Image FanDuel DraftKings FantasyDraft
Salary: $7,000 Salary: $6,300 Salary: $12,600
Salary Rank: 18 of 30 Salary Rank: 18 of 30 Salary Rank: 18 of 30
Stats Starts SIERA ERA K% BB% GB% HC% SC%
2016 8 4.66 2.67 17.3% 8.1% 42.8% 38.4% 16.8%
2017 10 4.75 4.55 16.2% 5.9% 40.8% 34.5% 17.7%
L30 5 4.46 4.36 17.4% 4.4% 40.6% 40.2% 15.9%

We have a full 15-game slate on tap tonight, which means we don’t need to take unnecessary risks even in tournaments. We still need to find contrarian plays that give us leverage on the field, but we don’t need to force bad plays into our lineups. That’s a smooth transition into our first pitching option of the night, Seth Lugo. In ten starts this season, he has a 4.75 SIERA with a strikeout rate of only 16%. Even against the Phillies, we can find better options.

Quick Breakdown: Avoid Lugo in all formats. His low ground ball rate makes him a risky play in this ballpark.

Nick Pivetta
Article Image FanDuel DraftKings FantasyDraft
Salary: $5,500 Salary: $6,400 Salary: $12,800
Salary Rank: 29 of 30 Salary Rank: 17 of 30 Salary Rank: 17 of 30
Stats Starts SIERA ERA K% BB% GB% HC% SC%
2017 16 4.42 5.89 23.1% 9.6% 40.4% 38.6% 14.9%
L30 5 4.26 8.64 20.0% 6.4% 48.8% 46.3% 18.8%

Pivetta isn’t as bad as his 5.89 ERA suggests. His SIERA is considerably lower and he has an above-average strikeout rate of 23%. Even though the Mets traded away Jay Bruce, they still have a potent offense, especially when facing a right-handed pitcher. On the season, they are ranked 15th in team wOBA and fourth in strikeout rate against righties. There is more downside than upside for Pivetta in this ballpark.

Quick Breakdown: Avoid Pivetta in all formats.

Batter Grind Down

NY Mets

The Mets’ stack was the route to take last night if you had any plans of finishing high in GPPs. More often than not, the previous night’s winning stack end up being popular the next night, but with 15 games on the schedule, I don’t see that happening. They are firmly in play once again though, as they take on Nick Pivetta in a hitter-friendly ballpark. Pivetta is a fly-ball pitcher that allows a lot of hard contact, especially to right-handed hitters (44%).

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

# Player Bats wOBA xwOBA ISO HC% BB% K% GB% FD Pos. FD Sal. DK Pos. DK Sal. FDRFT Pos. FDRFT Sal.
1 Curtis Granderson LEFT 0.342 0.336 0.241 33.3% 15.3% 22.4% 31.1% OF $2,600 OF $4,300 CF $8,400
2 Asdrubal Cabrera SWITCH 0.310 0.347 0.156 37.0% 10.3% 15.2% 43.7% 3B $2,800 2B/SS $3,500 SS $6,900
3 Yoenis Cespedes RIGHT 0.336 0.334 0.184 41.8% 5.9% 15.5% 37.7% OF $3,400 OF $4,200 LF $8,000
4 Michael Conforto LEFT 0.414 0.384 0.274 40.8% 13.7% 22.9% 36.2% OF $3,900 OF $4,700 LF $9,300
5 Neil Walker SWITCH 0.344 0.353 0.209 33.6% 8.8% 14.1% 36.8% 2B $2,400 2B $2,700 2B $5,200
6 Dominic Smith LEFT N/A N/A
7 Amed Rosario RIGHT 0.270 0.107 0.222 10.0% 0.0% 44.4% 70.0% SS $2,400 SS $3,000 SS $6,000
8 Travis d’Arnaud RIGHT 0.256 0.280 0.149 34.0% 4.5% 15.7% 40.4% C $2,100 C $3,000 C $6,000
9 Seth Lugo RIGHT 0.000 0.065 0.000 0.0% 0.0% 40.0% 33.3% P $7,000 P $6,300 P $12,600

Elite Plays – Yoenis Cespedes, Neil Walker

Secondary Plays – Curtis Granderson, Asdrubal Cabrera, Neil Walker

Stackability – YELLOW

Philadelphia

The Phillies also draw a favorable matchup tonight and they should carry even lower ownership than the Mets. This is an offense that has struggled to score all season, but they are playing in a good ballpark and they are facing a pitcher that has struggled with batters from both sides of the plate. In the last two seasons combined, Seth Lugo has allowed a .327+ xwOBA and a 35%+ hard contact to both left and right-handed hitters.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

# Player Bats wOBA xwOBA ISO HC% BB% K% GB% FD Pos. FD Sal. DK Pos. DK Sal. FDRFT Pos. FDRFT Sal.
1 Cesar Hernandez SWITCH 0.352 0.309 0.117 20.6% 10.4% 19.1% 50.6% 2B $3,400 2B $3,900 2B $7,600
2 Freddy Galvis SWITCH 0.319 0.297 0.170 29.4% 7.8% 18.1% 37.6% SS $3,000 SS $3,700 SS $7,200
3 Odubel Herrera LEFT 0.310 0.293 0.159 29.0% 6.0% 22.9% 43.6% OF $3,700 OF $4,300 IF/OF $8,400
4 Maikel Franco RIGHT 0.285 0.303 0.160 27.3% 6.6% 16.0% 46.5% 3B $2,900 3B $3,400 3B $6,600
5 Nick Williams LEFT 0.354 0.341 0.217 43.5% 5.0% 24.8% 50.7% OF $2,800 OF $3,500 LF $6,900
6 Tommy Joseph RIGHT 0.314 0.310 0.165 38.5% 6.2% 22.1% 45.0% 1B $2,500 1B $2,600 1B $5,100
7 Rhys Hoskins RIGHT OF $2,100 1B $2,500 1B $4,800
8 Cameron Rupp RIGHT 0.306 0.287 0.215 27.5% 7.6% 34.2% 46.2% C $2,300 C $2,900 C $5,600
9 Nick Pivetta RIGHT 0.080 0.134 0.000 13.3% 0.0% 40.0% 63.6% P $5,500 P $6,400 P $12,800

Elite Plays – Nick Williams

Secondary Plays – Cesar Hernandez, Freddy Galvis

Stackability – ORANGE / YELLOW

San Francisco at Washington – 7:05 PM ET

San Francisco Washington
Article Image Chris Stratton Article Image Edwin Jackson
RIGHT RIGHT
Vegas Moneyline Vegas Over/Under
WAS-170 10.0
Stats wOBA xwOBA HC% BB% K% GB% Stats wOBA xwOBA HC% BB% K% GB%
SP vs. Left (2016-17) 0.417 0.334 20.0% 17.9% 8.9% 42.5% SP vs. Left (2016-17) 0.342 0.340 29.7% 12.4% 16.7% 39.3%
SP vs. Right (2016-17) 0.305 0.374 31.5% 9.5% 17.6% 46.3% SP vs. Right (2016-17) 0.383 0.362 35.2% 8.0% 16.7% 39.4%

Pitcher Grind Down

Chris Stratton
Article Image FanDuel DraftKings FantasyDraft
Salary: $5,500 Salary: $4,600 Salary: $9,000
Salary Rank: 29 of 30 Salary Rank: 30 of 30 Salary Rank: 30 of 30
Stats Starts SIERA ERA K% BB% GB% HC% SC%
2016 0 5.35 3.60 14.0% 11.6% 40.6% 18.8% 18.8%
2017 2 5.77 6.63 13.8% 13.8% 46.8% 30.7% 24.2%
L30 1 4.89 4.00 19.1% 11.9% 42.9% 32.1% 17.9%

Stratton has not been sharp in his first two major league starts, posting a 5.77 SIERA with a walk rate (14%) that matches his strikeout rate (14%). He’s not considered a top pitching prospect and posted mediocre numbers at the Triple-A level earlier this season. He comes into tonight’s game as a large underdog against the Nationals, who are ranked second in team wOBA and eighth in strikeout rate against right-handed pitching this season.

Quick Breakdown: Stratton is a risky fantasy option with little to no upside.

Edwin Jackson
Article Image FanDuel DraftKings FantasyDraft
Salary: $6,700 Salary: $7,300 Salary: $14,400
Salary Rank: 21 of 30 Salary Rank: 14 of 30 Salary Rank: 14 of 30
Stats Starts SIERA ERA K% BB% GB% HC% SC%
2016 13 5.23 5.89 16.4% 11.0% 40.2% 33.3% 13.3%
2017 4 4.88 4.34 17.6% 7.2% 36.7% 30.9% 27.7%
L30 4 4.30 3.75 20.8% 5.2% 39.7% 32.4% 29.6%

This should be a fun game to watch because we have two of the worst pitchers in the slate squaring off. Jackson hasn’t been as bad as many of us have wanted him to be (because we stack against him), but he still has a high SIERA with a low strikeout rate. Even though the Giants are ranked dead last in team wOBA against right-handed pitching, they have one of the lowest strikeout rates in baseball.

Quick Breakdown: Jackson may be a large favorite pitching at home, but I have zero interest in him tonight.

Batter Grind Down

San Francisco

We have conflicted DFS strategies with the Giants. While I love to stack against Edwin Jackson, I hate to target a Giants’ offense that doesn’t hit home runs and that is ranked dead last in team wOBA against right-handed pitching this season. As I mentioned earlier, we can afford to be picky in a 15-game slate, so my approach will likely be to avoid both sides of this equation. With that said, Jackson has struggled with batters from both side of the plate in his career, so if you like a hitter or two from this lineup, don’t let me talk you off of them.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

# Player Bats wOBA xwOBA ISO HC% BB% K% GB% FD Pos. FD Sal. DK Pos. DK Sal. FDRFT Pos. FDRFT Sal.
1 Denard Span LEFT 0.346 0.337 0.188 26.4% 6.1% 11.8% 38.2% OF $3,000 OF $3,400 CF $6,600
2 Ryder Jones LEFT 0.128 0.181 0.000 10.0% 3.8% 19.2% 30.0% 1B $2,100 1B/3B $2,000 3B $3,900
3 Jarrett Parker LEFT 0.306 0.282 0.185 31.3% 6.9% 37.9% 50.0% OF $2,500 OF $3,200 LF $6,300
4 Buster Posey RIGHT 0.353 0.370 0.122 31.0% 10.2% 11.3% 43.5% C $3,300 1B/C $3,800 C $7,600
5 Pablo Sandoval SWITCH 0.300 0.346 0.183 44.4% 7.8% 22.2% 47.6% 3B $2,200 3B $3,300 3B $6,400
6 Hunter Pence RIGHT 0.272 0.269 0.097 28.0% 4.7% 22.5% 61.0% OF $3,500 OF $3,800 RF $7,600
7 Brandon Crawford LEFT 0.261 0.293 0.129 32.7% 6.1% 21.4% 50.5% SS $2,800 SS $3,000 SS $6,000
8 Joe Panik LEFT 0.310 0.300 0.149 27.0% 7.8% 10.2% 41.9% 2B $2,700 2B $3,100 2B $6,000
9 Chris Stratton RIGHT 0.000 0.213 0.000 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 100.0% P $5,500 P $4,600 P $9,000

Elite Plays – None

Secondary Plays – Denard Span, Ryder Jones, Jarrett Parker, Buster Posey

Stackability – ORANGE / YELLOW

Washington

The Nationals currently have the second highest implied total in the slate, right behind the Dodgers. Their matchup against Chris Stratton is certainly one that we can exploit. He had subpar numbers in the minors this season and has struggled in his first two major league starts as well. The one through seven hitters are all viable tonight (assuming Adam Lind bats seventh) and a Nationals’ stack is firmly in play as well.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

# Player Bats wOBA xwOBA ISO HC% BB% K% GB% FD Pos. FD Sal. DK Pos. DK Sal. FDRFT Pos. FDRFT Sal.
1 Brian Goodwin LEFT 0.310 0.309 0.242 33.3% 9.1% 24.0% 40.1% OF $3,200 OF $3,800 RF $7,600
2 Wilmer Difo SWITCH 0.266 0.278 0.078 21.2% 8.1% 20.6% 56.5% SS $3,300 2B/SS $3,600 2B $7,200
3 Bryce Harper LEFT 0.459 0.436 0.348 36.4% 16.8% 17.1% 36.4% OF $5,000 OF $5,600 RF $10,800
4 Ryan Zimmerman RIGHT 0.381 0.374 0.252 40.5% 6.5% 21.4% 47.7% 1B $3,500 1B $4,400 1B $8,400
5 Daniel Murphy LEFT 0.403 0.375 0.261 35.4% 8.0% 8.6% 32.5% 2B $3,500 2B $5,100 2B $9,900
6 Anthony Rendon RIGHT 0.392 0.368 0.238 33.6% 14.3% 14.3% 36.5% 3B $3,200 3B $4,800 3B $9,200
7 Adam Lind LEFT 0.369 0.375 0.234 40.5% 7.6% 15.3% 45.0% OF $2,300 1B/OF $3,400 1B $6,600
8 Matt Wieters SWITCH 0.278 0.294 0.123 31.9% 6.4% 20.1% 39.6% C $3,000 C $3,300 C $6,600
9 Edwin Jackson RIGHT 0.000 0.121 0.000 0.0% 0.0% 60.0% 0.0% P $6,700 P $7,300 P $14,400

Elite Plays – Brian Goodwin, Bryce Harper, Daniel Murphy

Secondary Plays – Wilmer Difo or Adrian Sanchez, Ryan Zimmerman, Anthony Rendon, Adam Lind

Stackability – GREEN

Boston at NY Yankees – 7:05 PM ET

Boston NY Yankees
Article Image Eduardo Rodriguez Article Image Jaime Garcia
LEFT LEFT
Vegas Moneyline Vegas Over/Under
NYY-120 9.5
Stats wOBA xwOBA HC% BB% K% GB% Stats wOBA xwOBA HC% BB% K% GB%
SP vs. Left (2016-17) 0.349 0.309 26.0% 9.7% 25.5% 39.4% SP vs. Left (2016-17) 0.294 0.274 24.4% 4.7% 23.4% 50.6%
SP vs. Right (2016-17) 0.306 0.306 29.4% 8.8% 23.0% 31.1% SP vs. Right (2016-17) 0.335 0.317 31.4% 9.2% 18.4% 57.6%

Pitcher Grind Down

Eduardo Rodriguez
Article Image FanDuel DraftKings FantasyDraft
Salary: $7,700 Salary: $6,200 Salary: $12,300
Salary Rank: 12 of 30 Salary Rank: 19 of 30 Salary Rank: 19 of 30
Stats Starts SIERA ERA K% BB% GB% HC% SC%
2016 20 4.44 4.71 21.8% 8.7% 31.6% 27.6% 22.2%
2017 14 4.11 4.08 25.8% 9.3% 34.2% 30.3% 17.2%
L30 4 4.50 5.66 24.5% 11.2% 32.8% 33.9% 16.1%

Rodriguez has shown some upside this season with a 26% strikeout rate, but the walks have been a concern all year. When you are a fly-ball pitcher that plays in the American League East, you can’t afford to give out free base passes. It turns what could have been solo home runs into two or three run shots. There are times to target Rodriguez (preferably in a better ballpark and a better matchup), but tonight isn’t one of them.

Quick Breakdown: Avoid E-Rod in both cash games and tournaments.

Jaime Garcia
Article Image FanDuel DraftKings FantasyDraft
Salary: $7,100 Salary: $5,700 Salary: $11,400
Salary Rank: 17 of 30 Salary Rank: 24 of 30 Salary Rank: 23 of 30
Stats Starts SIERA ERA K% BB% GB% HC% SC%
2016 30 3.93 4.67 20.2% 7.7% 56.7% 31.1% 18.6%
2017 20 4.54 4.49 18.3% 9.1% 55.6% 28.4% 21.8%
L30 4 4.25 4.26 20.8% 10.4% 61.1% 32.9% 16.4%

While Garcia and Rodriguez are both southpaws, the comparisons end there. Garcia is a low strikeout pitcher (18%) that relies on a high ground ball rate (56%). He has been good at limiting hard contact this season, but that could change now that he’s pitching in the tough American League East. There is more risk than potential reward with Garcia, especially in a matchup against the Red Sox.

Quick Breakdown: When these two teams meet up, there are usually a lot of runs scored. Garcia is an easy fade in all formats.

Batter Grind Down

Boston

The Red Sox draw a mediocre matchup against Jaime Garcia. While they get to play in a good ballpark, Garcia has an elite ground ball rate. Over the last two seasons, he has held both left and right-handed hitters under a .320 xwOBA and under a 32% hard contact rate. The top targets here are the righties that can get the ball in the air (high fly ball rate), which includes the likes of Dustin Pedroia, Mookie Betts, Hanley Ramirez, and Chris Young.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. LH Pitching)

# Player Bats wOBA xwOBA ISO HC% BB% K% GB% FD Pos. FD Sal. DK Pos. DK Sal. FDRFT Pos. FDRFT Sal.
1 Eduardo Nunez RIGHT 0.346 0.289 0.144 29.2% 4.9% 8.7% 57.3% SS $3,700 3B/OF $4,600 3B $8,800
2 Dustin Pedroia RIGHT 0.393 0.388 0.137 31.9% 19.7% 9.1% 41.3% 2B $3,300 2B $3,800 2B $7,600
3 Mookie Betts RIGHT 0.348 0.325 0.169 32.5% 12.5% 7.3% 42.9% OF $4,100 OF $4,600 RF $9,000
4 Hanley Ramirez RIGHT 0.329 0.359 0.219 37.5% 16.9% 20.8% 41.7% 1B $2,900 1B $3,600 IF/OF $7,200
5 Rafael Devers LEFT 0.379 0.241 0.091 40.0% 8.3% 50.0% 60.0% 3B $3,400 3B $4,200 3B $8,000
6 Chris Young RIGHT 0.298 0.322 0.100 30.0% 12.3% 12.3% 33.3% OF $3,000 P $4,300 LF $7,600
7 Xander Bogaerts RIGHT 0.304 0.277 0.070 28.3% 5.1% 16.7% 55.0% SS $2,800 SS $3,800 SS $7,500
8 Christian Vazquez RIGHT 0.282 0.327 0.176 32.3% 2.9% 8.6% 45.2% C $2,500 C $3,300 C $6,600
9 Jackie Bradley Jr. LEFT 0.383 0.331 0.185 30.2% 8.7% 20.7% 55.6% OF $2,400 OF $3,600 CF $7,200

Elite Plays – Mookie Betts

Secondary Plays – Eduardo Nunez, Dustin Pedroia, Hanley Ramirez, Chris Young

Stackability – YELLOW

NY Yankees

If you look strictly at his splits, there isn’t anything that really stands out in a matchup against Eduardo Rodriguez. Since the start of last season, he has held both left and right-handed hitters under a .310 xwOBA and under a 30% hard contact rate. The numbers aren’t exactly ideal, but we have a fly-ball pitcher facing the Yankees in a hitter-friendly ballpark. The right-handed power bats are firmly in play here.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. LH Pitching)

# Player Bats wOBA xwOBA ISO HC% BB% K% GB% FD Pos. FD Sal. DK Pos. DK Sal. FDRFT Pos. FDRFT Sal.
1 Brett Gardner LEFT 0.278 0.290 0.120 21.9% 12.4% 20.6% 47.5% OF $3,600 OF $4,200 LF $8,100
2 Aaron Hicks SWITCH 0.396 0.332 0.250 28.9% 11.0% 17.8% 45.1% OF $3,000 OF $3,600 CF $7,200
3 Aaron Judge RIGHT 0.429 0.471 0.333 42.6% 24.0% 28.0% 34.0% OF $4,400 OF $5,100 RF $10,000
4 Gary Sanchez RIGHT 0.342 0.405 0.250 38.6% 13.0% 23.2% 38.6% C $3,800 C $4,600 C $9,000
5 Chase Headley SWITCH 0.240 0.248 0.089 27.8% 3.8% 26.7% 43.1% 1B $2,700 1B/3B $3,600 3B $7,200
6 Didi Gregorius LEFT 0.290 0.268 0.081 13.7% 3.3% 15.2% 37.5% SS $3,500 SS $4,700 SS $9,200
7 Todd Frazier RIGHT 0.359 0.397 0.311 39.7% 16.5% 18.7% 20.7% 3B $4,000 3B $3,900 3B $7,600
8 Garrett Cooper RIGHT 0.404 0.336 0.267 55.6% 6.3% 37.5% 22.2% 1B $2,500 1B $2,900 1B $5,600
9 Ronald Torreyes RIGHT 0.339 0.248 0.049 18.0% 4.4% 8.9% 64.1% 2B $2,500 2B/SS $3,000 SS $6,000

Elite Plays – Aaron Judge, Todd Frazier, Gary Sanchez

Secondary Plays – Garrett Cooper, Aaron Hicks, Brett Gardner

Stackability – YELLOW

Pittsburgh at Toronto – 7:07 PM ET

Pittsburgh Toronto
Article Image Jameson Taillon Article Image Marcus Stroman
RIGHT RIGHT
Vegas Moneyline Vegas Over/Under
TOR-140 9.0
Stats wOBA xwOBA HC% BB% K% GB% Stats wOBA xwOBA HC% BB% K% GB%
SP vs. Left (2016-17) 0.334 0.315 29.6% 7.3% 16.5% 53.1% SP vs. Left (2016-17) 0.311 0.307 31.8% 7.5% 19.2% 62.3%
SP vs. Right (2016-17) 0.311 0.275 32.8% 4.1% 25.4% 49.3% SP vs. Right (2016-17) 0.312 0.308 29.7% 6.2% 20.1% 59.7%

Pitcher Grind Down

Jameson Taillon
Article Image FanDuel DraftKings FantasyDraft
Salary: $7,500 Salary: $8,100 Salary: $15,600
Salary Rank: 13 of 30 Salary Rank: 10 of 30 Salary Rank: 10 of 30
Stats Starts SIERA ERA K% BB% GB% HC% SC%
2016 18 3.61 3.38 20.3% 4.1% 52.4% 33.2% 17.3%
2017 16 3.99 4.60 22.1% 7.4% 49.8% 28.7% 24.9%
L30 5 3.85 9.64 21.7% 5.2% 45.1% 30.1% 24.1%

Taillon is more talented than his ERA suggests and after two awful starts, he bounced back nicely in his last outing. Overall, he owns a 3.99 SIERA with a strikeout rate of 22%. He typically does a nice job of keeping the ball on the ground and inducing a lot of soft and medium contact. I say all of this not to recommend Taillon as a play, but to potentially talk you off of a Blue Jays’ stack.

Quick Breakdown: In a road start in a hitter-friendly American League ballpark, Taillon is an easy fade.

Marcus Stroman
Article Image FanDuel DraftKings FantasyDraft
Salary: $8,300 Salary: $10,900 Salary: $21,200
Salary Rank: 6 of 30 Salary Rank: 2 of 30 Salary Rank: 2 of 30
Stats Starts SIERA ERA K% BB% GB% HC% SC%
2016 32 3.62 4.37 19.4% 6.3% 60.1% 31.8% 18.3%
2017 23 3.86 3.17 19.9% 7.6% 62.1% 29.2% 22.0%
L30 6 4.36 2.50 19.2% 11.6% 65.3% 27.1% 24.6%

Stroman doesn’t have many bad fantasy outings. He throws a lot of strikes and has one of the highest ground ball rates in all of baseball. This allows him to pitch well in any ballpark and in most matchups. I expect another solid outing from him tonight, but I’m not sure about his strikeout potential in a matchup against the Pirates. On the season, Pittsburgh has the second lowest strikeout rate against right-handed pitching.

Quick Breakdown: Stroman is more viable on FanDuel, but there are better SP1s in this 15-game slate.

Batter Grind Down

Pittsburgh

The Pirates have struggled against right-handed pitching all season. While they get to play in an American League ballpark (use of the DH) and while they see a favorable ballpark shift, they draw a difficult matchup against Marcus Stroman. In addition to his elite ground ball rate, he has held both left and right-handed hitters under a .310 xwOBA and under a 32% hard contact rate.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

# Player Bats wOBA xwOBA ISO HC% BB% K% GB% FD Pos. FD Sal. DK Pos. DK Sal. FDRFT Pos. FDRFT Sal.
1 Starling Marte RIGHT 0.331 0.310 0.101 26.8% 5.0% 19.0% 51.5% OF $3,200 OF $3,900 CF $7,800
2 Adam Frazier LEFT 0.317 0.335 0.111 30.4% 8.7% 11.6% 48.1% OF $2,500 2B/OF $3,500 IF/OF $6,900
3 Andrew McCutchen RIGHT 0.350 0.351 0.170 33.7% 10.9% 17.7% 41.9% OF $3,700 OF $4,300 RF $8,400
4 Josh Bell SWITCH 0.343 0.335 0.219 33.9% 10.2% 20.2% 50.9% 1B $2,900 1B $3,600 IF/OF $7,200
5 David Freese RIGHT 0.330 0.350 0.106 29.8% 12.7% 19.4% 55.9% 3B $3,200 3B $3,500 3B $6,800
6 Josh Harrison RIGHT 0.331 0.325 0.145 32.2% 5.0% 15.8% 36.1% 2B $2,800 2B/3B $3,700 2B $7,200
7 Gregory Polanco LEFT 0.318 0.320 0.181 25.9% 7.7% 10.9% 40.3% OF $2,600 OF $2,400 RF $4,800
8 Francisco Cervelli RIGHT 0.330 0.334 0.130 31.5% 10.0% 20.0% 49.3% C $2,500 C $3,100 C $6,000
9 Jordy Mercer RIGHT 0.320 0.311 0.149 27.5% 10.2% 15.6% 45.7% SS $2,200 SS $3,200 SS $6,400

Elite Plays – None

Secondary Plays – None

Stackability – RED

Toronto

The Blue Jays have a high implied total, but that is a product of playing at home in a good ballpark. Their matchup isn’t nearly as appealing as their team total. Since the start of last season, Jameson Taillon has held both left and right-handed hitters under a .315 xwOBA. Jose Bautista still provides good value on DraftKings, Russell Martin is one of the few catchers that is expected to bat in a favorable lineup spot, and the two hot bats of Josh Donaldson and Justin Smoak are viable as one-offs.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

# Player Bats wOBA xwOBA ISO HC% BB% K% GB% FD Pos. FD Sal. DK Pos. DK Sal. FDRFT Pos. FDRFT Sal.
1 Jose Bautista RIGHT 0.323 0.333 0.186 34.7% 12.6% 22.3% 33.9% OF $3,800 OF $3,800 RF $7,600
2 Russell Martin RIGHT 0.346 0.333 0.171 28.4% 14.3% 22.2% 52.9% C $3,200 C $3,400 C $6,800
3 Josh Donaldson RIGHT 0.362 0.363 0.223 34.1% 15.3% 25.4% 42.0% 3B $4,100 3B $4,500 3B $8,800
4 Justin Smoak SWITCH 0.378 0.394 0.294 40.6% 10.4% 22.6% 32.6% 1B $3,800 1B $3,900 1B $7,600
5 Kendrys Morales SWITCH 0.305 0.366 0.197 36.3% 8.0% 21.3% 46.6% 1B $3,200 1B $3,700 1B $7,200
6 Steve Pearce RIGHT 0.338 0.319 0.169 32.5% 8.5% 19.5% 42.7% OF $3,600 OF $3,600 1B $7,200
7 Ryan Goins LEFT 0.267 0.279 0.132 27.9% 7.4% 16.9% 44.9% SS $2,500 2B/SS $3,100 2B $6,000
8 Kevin Pillar RIGHT 0.273 0.300 0.127 26.1% 5.3% 15.4% 46.6% OF $2,600 OF $2,800 CF $5,600
9 Darwin Barney RIGHT 0.260 0.260 0.103 16.8% 2.3% 15.9% 47.6% 2B $2,300 2B/3B $2,500 2B $4,800

Elite Plays – Jose Bautista (DK)

Secondary Plays – Jose Bautista (FD), Russell Martin, Josh Donaldson, Justin Smoak, Kendrys Morales

Stackability – YELLOW

Minnesota at Detroit – 7:10 PM ET

Minnesota Detroit
Article Image Kyle Gibson Article Image Anibal Sanchez
RIGHT RIGHT
Vegas Moneyline Vegas Over/Under
DET-118 10.5
Stats wOBA xwOBA HC% BB% K% GB% Stats wOBA xwOBA HC% BB% K% GB%
SP vs. Left (2016-17) 0.382 0.346 33.2% 9.5% 13.8% 48.5% SP vs. Left (2016-17) 0.341 0.309 29.3% 9.0% 20.2% 39.9%
SP vs. Right (2016-17) 0.346 0.355 33.3% 8.9% 16.7% 51.7% SP vs. Right (2016-17) 0.389 0.342 37.4% 5.7% 19.5% 38.2%

Pitcher Grind Down

Kyle Gibson
Article Image FanDuel DraftKings FantasyDraft
Salary: $5,600 Salary: $5,900 Salary: $11,700
Salary Rank: 27 of 30 Salary Rank: 22 of 30 Salary Rank: 22 of 30
Stats Starts SIERA ERA K% BB% GB% HC% SC%
2016 25 4.73 5.07 15.9% 8.4% 48.8% 31.0% 18.6%
2017 19 5.20 6.03 14.5% 10.3% 52.1% 36.4% 14.4%
L30 4 4.82 6.75 15.5% 10.7% 57.3% 29.0% 13.2%

Gibson is one of the least appealing options in the slate. He has a low strikeout rate, a high walk rate, and he allows a lot of hard contact. His ground ball rate is high, but that hasn’t helped his cause this season. He’s an easy fade as an underdog pitching on the road against the Tigers.

Quick Breakdown: Avoid Gibson in all formats.

Anibal Sanchez
Article Image FanDuel DraftKings FantasyDraft
Salary: $5,700 Salary: $5,600 Salary: $11,200
Salary Rank: 26 of 30 Salary Rank: 25 of 30 Salary Rank: 25 of 30
Stats Starts SIERA ERA K% BB% GB% HC% SC%
2016 26 4.39 5.87 20.2% 7.9% 39.6% 31.8% 18.3%
2017 9 4.42 6.62 19.1% 6.3% 38.0% 36.8% 18.4%
L30 5 5.07 7.92 14.2% 5.8% 40.4% 33.7% 21.1%

Sanchez is on the same boat as Kyle Gibson and unfortunately for these two, it’s a sinking ship. In his last five starts, Sanchez has a SIERA above 5.00 with a strikeout rate of only 14%. He’s a fly-ball pitcher that gives up a lot of hard contact. With the total for the game set at 10.5 runs, we should focus the attention on the two offenses in this game.

Quick Breakdown: Avoid Sanchez in all formats.

Batter Grind Down

Minnesota

The Twins are a sneaky offense to target in tonight’s 15-game slate. They draw a favorable matchup against Anibal Sanchez, who has some serious blowup potential. The issue with using the Twins as a full stack is that they don’t have enough right-handed batters to take advantage of Sanchez’s reverse splits. Since the start of last season, Sanchez has allowed a .342 xwOBA with a 37% hard contact rate. Brian Dozier and Miguel Sano are both elite one-off targets.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

# Player Bats wOBA xwOBA ISO HC% BB% K% GB% FD Pos. FD Sal. DK Pos. DK Sal. FDRFT Pos. FDRFT Sal.
1 Brian Dozier RIGHT 0.304 0.305 0.188 33.7% 9.4% 22.1% 39.2% 2B $4,100 2B $4,600 2B $9,000
2 Max Kepler LEFT 0.355 0.318 0.207 36.8% 9.0% 17.3% 39.8% OF $3,400 OF $4,200 RF $8,000
3 Miguel Sano RIGHT 0.352 0.353 0.235 45.7% 10.8% 36.1% 37.2% 3B $3,700 3B $4,300 IF/OF $8,400
4 Joe Mauer LEFT 0.349 0.392 0.127 39.3% 13.3% 14.0% 47.7% 1B $2,900 1B $3,300 1B $6,600
5 Eddie Rosario LEFT 0.343 0.304 0.193 30.6% 7.1% 19.2% 41.9% OF $3,300 OF $4,200 LF $8,000
6 Robbie Grossman SWITCH 0.336 0.340 0.146 30.0% 14.0% 19.3% 43.0% OF $2,800 OF $3,400 LF $6,600
7 Byron Buxton RIGHT 0.257 0.244 0.103 26.0% 6.8% 33.5% 40.8% OF $2,300 OF $3,000 CF $6,000
8 Jason Castro LEFT 0.301 0.323 0.157 37.8% 11.9% 29.2% 37.8% C $2,600 C $2,800 C $5,400
9 Jorge Polanco SWITCH 0.271 0.278 0.097 25.3% 9.0% 14.0% 40.7% SS $3,200 SS $3,700 SS $7,200

Elite Plays – Brian Dozier, Miguel Sano

Secondary Plays – Max Kepler, Eddie Rosario

Stackability – YELLOW

Detroit

The Tigers should be considered one of the top stacks in the slate. Yes, they have let us down more often than not this season, but they are a fly-ball offense that is facing a truly bad ground ball pitcher. Since the start of last season, Kyle Gibson has allowed a .346+ xwOBA and a 35%+ hard contact rate to both left and right-handed hitters. I will have plenty of exposure to the one through five hitters in both cash games and tournaments.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

# Player Bats wOBA xwOBA ISO HC% BB% K% GB% FD Pos. FD Sal. DK Pos. DK Sal. FDRFT Pos. FDRFT Sal.
1 Ian Kinsler RIGHT 0.307 0.316 0.120 34.0% 10.3% 12.2% 33.2% 2B $3,700 2B $4,200 2B $8,000
2 Jim Adduci LEFT 0.330 0.346 0.188 52.2% 11.1% 25.0% 56.5% OF $2,400 OF $2,800 LF $5,600
3 Miguel Cabrera RIGHT 0.312 0.387 0.177 45.6% 10.2% 20.4% 41.9% 1B $3,400 1B $3,600 1B $7,200
4 Justin Upton RIGHT 0.357 0.352 0.232 43.0% 11.8% 28.7% 37.5% OF $3,800 OF $4,700 LF $9,200
5 Nick Castellanos RIGHT 0.294 0.336 0.145 46.1% 8.2% 26.0% 39.9% 3B $3,200 3B $4,000 3B $7,600
6 Victor Martinez SWITCH 0.296 0.363 0.129 42.4% 8.2% 14.0% 39.9% C $2,200 1B $2,400 1B $4,800
7 Mikie Mahtook RIGHT 0.342 0.317 0.127 34.4% 8.2% 22.4% 48.3% OF $2,800 OF $3,300 CF $6,400
8 James McCann RIGHT 0.265 0.302 0.120 39.8% 7.2% 25.7% 38.1% C $2,100 C $2,600 C $5,100
9 Jose Iglesias RIGHT 0.284 0.251 0.105 30.8% 4.4% 14.6% 53.0% SS $2,600 SS $3,100 SS $6,000

Elite Plays – Ian Kinsler, Miguel Cabrera, Justin Upton

Secondary Plays – Jim Adduci, Nick Castellanos, Victor Martinez

Stackability – GREEN

Jump to Page 1 2 3

About the Author

Notorious
Derek Farnsworth (Notorious)

Derek Farnsworth (aka Notorious) is a lead RotoGrinders Expert and one of the most recognizable names and faces in all of DFS. Before joining the RotoGrinders team, Derek received a Master’s Degree from the University of Utah. When he’s not busy providing content, he’s dominating the DFS industry as evidenced by his consistent top rankings in several sports and multiple Live Final appearances. Noto provides expert NBA, NFL, MLB, and PGA analysis for RotoGrinders Premium members on a daily basis and has also been nominated for five different Fantasy Sports Writer’s Association (FSWA) awards. Follow Noto on Twitter – @RG_Notorious