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MLB Grind Down: Friday, June 16th

by Derek Farnsworth (Notorious) Last Updated 2017-06-17 02:35:56

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The RotoGrinders MLB Grind Down will give you an in-depth analysis into the upcoming MLB schedule. This article will break down the numbers for every single game and give you analysis on which trends you can exploit. While matchups are a major factor in daily fantasy baseball, there are plenty of other factors to consider such as injuries, weather, and salaries.

The analysis should point you in the right direction, but it is still up to you to decipher the information and make your own selections. No sport has more variance than baseball. The best choice is not always the right choice but following the trends will win you money over time.

Note: As always, if you want to try a new DFS site, be sure to click through a RotoGrinders link and use our DraftKings promo code, FanDuel promo code, and FantasyDraft promo code to receive the best perks in the industry.

Stackability Rating System:

GREEN – A viable full stack in cash games and GPPs.
YELLOW – A viable mini-stack in cash games and full stack in GPPs.
ORANGE – A viable stack in large field GPPs.
RED – Not a recommended stack for cash games or GPPs.

St. Louis at Baltimore – 7:05 PM ET

St. Louis Baltimore
stlouismlb Carlos Martinez baltimoremlb Kevin Gausman
RIGHT RIGHT
Vegas Moneyline Vegas Over/Under
STL-113 8.5
Stats wOBA xwOBA HC% BB% K% GB% Stats wOBA xwOBA HC% BB% K% GB%
SP vs. Left (2016-17) 0.310 0.323 34.8% 11.3% 20.6% 52.7% SP vs. Left (2016-17) 0.300 0.313 32.9% 7.5% 20.5% 38.6%
SP vs. Right (2016-17) 0.241 0.235 25.4% 5.7% 26.8% 57.3% SP vs. Right (2016-17) 0.375 0.346 31.1% 7.4% 20.1% 48.2%

Pitcher Grind Down

Carlos Martinez
carlos-martinez-300x200 FanDuel DraftKings FantasyDraft
Salary: $9,800 Salary: $11,300 Salary: $22,000
Salary Rank: 3 of 29 Salary Rank: 3 of 29 Salary Rank: 3 of 29
Stats Starts SIERA ERA K% BB% GB% HC% SC%
2016 31 3.97 3.04 21.5% 8.7% 56.4% 29.6% 19.1%
2017 13 3.52 2.95 28.1% 8.5% 50.9% 32.4% 22.1%

After smaller evening slates on Wednesday and Thursday, we have 15 games on the schedule Friday night. We start with the Cardinals and Orioles in an Interleague game being played in Baltimore. This is a good shift for the Cardinals’ offense, but a bad one for Martinez. Not only does he have to face a talented offense in a hitter-friendly ballpark, but he won’t face the opposing pitcher in the lineup. Now, Martinez still provides high strikeout upside, so he certainly has some appeal in tournaments. The Orioles currently have the tenth highest strikeout rate against right-handed pitching. This is also a good matchup for Martinez, as he dominates right-handed hitters and the Orioles’ lineup is loaded with them.

Quick Breakdown: Martinez has as much upside as any pitcher in this slate not named Max Scherzer. Martinez is an elite GPP play and a decent cash game target as well.

Kevin Gausman
kevin-gausman-300x200 FanDuel DraftKings FantasyDraft
Salary: $6,300 Salary: $5,600 Salary: $11,100
Salary Rank: 25 of 29 Salary Rank: 25 of 29 Salary Rank: 25 of 29
Stats Starts SIERA ERA K% BB% GB% HC% SC%
2016 30 3.81 3.61 23.0% 6.2% 44.1% 31.1% 18.3%
2017 14 5.42 6.49 14.2% 10.2% 43.7% 33.7% 17.7%

Gausman just can’t seem to turn the corner. Every time we think he could potentially be trending upward, he goes out and gets shelled. In his last start, he allowed 14 baserunners and seven earned runs in only three innings against the Yankees. The low strikeout rate is a big concern, as is his 10% walk rate. He can continue to be avoided and we can continue to load up on the offense that he is facing.

Quick Breakdown: Gausman is a completely different pitcher this season and we should treat him as such.

Batter Grind Down

St. Louis

As mentioned above, other than the name, there are no similarities between Kevin Gausman last two seasons. I typically like to use a two-year sample for pitchers, but this is a case where I like to separate the results. If we look at this season alone, Gasuman has allowed a .341 wOBA to lefties and a .430 wOBA to righties. The Cardinals are intriguing, as they get to utilize the DH and see a favorable ballpark shift playing in Camden Yards.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

# Player Bats wOBA xwOBA ISO HC% BB% K% GB% FD Pos. FD Sal. DK Pos. DK Sal. FDRFT Pos. FDRFT Sal.
1 Matt Carpenter LEFT 0.377 0.408 0.251 46.1% 15.2% 19.8% 27.7% 1B $3,600 1B $4,400 1B $8,700
2 Dexter Fowler SWITCH 0.357 0.344 0.189 31.1% 13.8% 24.4% 36.3% OF $3,000 OF $4,400 CF $8,700
3 Stephen Piscotty RIGHT 0.335 0.351 0.162 32.9% 8.3% 20.8% 45.5% OF $3,100 OF $3,800 RF $7,600
4 Jedd Gyorko RIGHT 0.359 0.341 0.265 35.6% 7.4% 24.1% 42.6% 3B $3,000 3B $3,700 3B $7,200
5 Yadier Molina RIGHT 0.328 0.332 0.122 31.4% 6.2% 11.5% 47.6% C $2,600 C $3,800 C $7,500
6 Tommy Pham RIGHT 0.350 0.348 0.192 43.9% 11.2% 31.1% 53.1% OF $3,000 OF $3,800 CF $7,600
7 Aledmys Diaz RIGHT 0.355 0.310 0.209 29.5% 6.5% 13.0% 44.8% SS $3,000 SS $3,700 SS $7,200
8 Jose Martinez RIGHT 0.262 0.323 0.074 28.6% 8.3% 21.7% 53.7% OF $2,500 1B/OF $3,300 IF/OF $6,400
9 Paul DeJong RIGHT 0.228 0.249 0.143 21.7% 0.0% 34.3% 47.8% 2B $2,100 2B $2,700 3B $5,200

Elite Plays – Matt Carpenter, Dexter Fowler, Jedd Gyorko

Secondary Plays – Stephen Piscotty, Yadier Molina, Tommy Pham

Stackability – YELLOW / GREEN

Baltimore

In terms of splits, this is a bad matchup for the Orioles. The one weakness of Carlos Martinez is his inability to get left-handed hitters out. Outside of Seth Smith, the Orioles don’t have any lefties that Martinez will need to worry about. Over the last two seasons, he has held righties to a .235 xwOBA and a 25% hard contact rate, while inducing a 57% ground ball rate. The more I look at it, the more I want to play Martinez here.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

# Player Bats wOBA xwOBA ISO HC% BB% K% GB% FD Pos. FD Sal. DK Pos. DK Sal. FDRFT Pos. FDRFT Sal.
1 Seth Smith LEFT 0.336 0.367 0.173 32.9% 11.0% 21.2% 46.0% OF $3,000 OF $3,700 LF $7,200
2 Adam Jones RIGHT 0.336 0.341 0.194 32.1% 5.3% 16.3% 43.6% OF $3,000 OF $3,300 CF $6,600
3 Manny Machado RIGHT 0.343 0.356 0.237 34.8% 6.8% 19.4% 37.9% 3B $3,600 3B $4,200 3B $8,100
4 Mark Trumbo RIGHT 0.371 0.379 0.260 37.3% 8.5% 23.4% 40.1% OF $3,500 OF $4,000 IF/OF $7,600
5 Trey Mancini RIGHT 0.383 0.358 0.261 38.1% 8.0% 27.0% 42.9% OF $3,300 1B/OF $4,200 1B $8,000
6 Jonathan Schoop RIGHT 0.338 0.315 0.200 29.2% 3.3% 19.9% 42.3% 2B $3,500 2B $4,400 2B $8,400
7 Welington Castillo RIGHT 0.304 0.296 0.130 33.5% 5.9% 26.9% 40.9% C $3,000 C $3,600 C $7,200
8 David Washington LEFT 1B $2,000 1B $2,300 1B $4,500
9 J.J. Hardy RIGHT 0.279 0.286 0.110 29.2% 4.5% 17.0% 43.9% SS $2,100 SS $2,400 SS $4,800

Elite Plays – None

Secondary Plays – Seth Smith

Stackability – ORANGE

Chicago Cubs at Pittsburgh – 7:05 PM ET

Chicago Cubs Pittsburgh
cubsmlb Eddie Butler pittsburghmlb Trevor Williams
RIGHT RIGHT
Vegas Moneyline Vegas Over/Under
CHC-106 9.5
Stats wOBA xwOBA HC% BB% K% GB% Stats wOBA xwOBA HC% BB% K% GB%
SP vs. Left (2016-17) 0.369 0.391 39.8% 12.0% 16.6% 39.0% SP vs. Left (2016-17) 0.362 0.303 27.5% 6.2% 14.6% 42.2%
SP vs. Right (2016-17) 0.371 0.335 35.3% 6.2% 16.1% 50.3% SP vs. Right (2016-17) 0.350 0.350 31.7% 7.3% 16.8% 45.9%

Pitcher Grind Down

Eddie Butler
eddie-butler-300x200 FanDuel DraftKings FantasyDraft
Salary: $7,100 Salary: $6,000 Salary: $12,000
Salary Rank: 20 of 29 Salary Rank: 23 of 29 Salary Rank: 22 of 29
Stats Starts SIERA ERA K% BB% GB% HC% SC%
2016 9 4.53 7.17 16.0% 7.2% 45.8% 38.7% 13.1%
2017 6 5.25 4.03 16.9% 12.1% 46.0% 33.0% 19.3%

Every once in a while we can play a low strikeout pitcher, but the conditions have to be near perfect. He has to have a strikeout-friendly matchup, he has to have good command and/or a high ground ball rate, and he has to have flashed some upside in the past. Butler doesn’t quite fit the criteria that we are looking for in a low strikeout pitcher. He is an easy fade in a game that features an over/under of 9.5 runs.

Quick Breakdown: Butler can be avoided in both cash games and tournaments.

Trevor Williams
trevor-williams-300x200 FanDuel DraftKings FantasyDraft
Salary: $6,000 Salary: $5,400 Salary: $10,800
Salary Rank: 28 of 29 Salary Rank: 27 of 29 Salary Rank: 26 of 29
Stats Starts SIERA ERA K% BB% GB% HC% SC%
2016 1 4.28 7.82 18.0% 8.2% 45.5% 31.1% 17.8%
2017 7 4.76 5.13 15.1% 6.3% 43.6% 29.1% 25.3%

Williams is in the exact same boat as Eddie Butler. He is a low strikeout pitcher that doesn’t have enough upside to warrant consideration in a 15 game slate. I don’t mind picking on the Cubs’ offense with a right-handed pitcher every now and then, but they are coming off of a big series against the Mets. This game has a very high run total for a game being played in PNC Park.

Quick Breakdown: Williams can be avoided in all formats.

Batter Grind Down

Chicago Cubs

The Cubs may have found their groove in New York in a series against the Mets. They will look to keep it rolling tonight against Trevor Williams, who has a low strikeout rate of 15%. He actually has decent numbers against lefties, but has allowed a .350 xwOBA and a 32% hard contact rate to righties in his last eight starts. The Cubs are far from my favorite offense in the slate, but I have no qualms with playing them in this spot.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

# Player Bats wOBA xwOBA ISO HC% BB% K% GB% FD Pos. FD Sal. DK Pos. DK Sal. FDRFT Pos. FDRFT Sal.
1 Anthony Rizzo LEFT 0.389 0.380 0.249 36.6% 12.9% 15.5% 37.1% 1B $4,400 1B $4,800 1B $9,300
2 Ian Happ SWITCH 0.355 0.355 0.292 34.2% 13.2% 31.6% 46.3% 2B $3,200 2B $4,300 IF/OF $8,400
3 Kris Bryant RIGHT 0.376 0.352 0.238 36.5% 10.2% 22.3% 30.9% 3B $3,900 3B $4,700 IF/OF $9,300
4 Ben Zobrist SWITCH 0.349 0.369 0.177 33.9% 15.3% 11.8% 46.9% OF $2,900 2B/OF $3,400 IF/OF $6,800
5 Jason Heyward LEFT 0.295 0.314 0.112 27.0% 8.1% 13.4% 46.5% OF $2,900 OF $3,500 RF $6,800
6 Miguel Montero LEFT 0.321 0.308 0.175 32.2% 13.3% 21.4% 45.4% C $2,100 C $3,300 C $6,600
7 Javier Baez RIGHT 0.296 0.270 0.158 28.6% 2.0% 26.2% 45.9% 2B $2,200 2B/SS $3,100 2B $6,000
8 Eddie Butler RIGHT 0.079 0.127 0.000 10.5% 4.0% 20.0% 90.9% P $7,100 P $6,000 P $12,000
9 Kyle Schwarber LEFT 0.297 0.354 0.230 36.1% 11.6% 30.0% 42.1% OF $2,600 OF $3,900 IF/OF $7,800

Elite Plays – Kris Bryant

Secondary Plays – Anthony Rizzo, Ian Happ, Ben Zobrist

Stackability – YELLOW

Pittsburgh

The Pirates don’t hit enough home runs to put them in the running for my favorite stack in the slate, but I do love their matchup against Eddie Butler. Over the last two seasons, Butler has allowed a .391 xwOBA to lefties and a .335 xwOBA to righties. It’s worth noting that his ground ball rate dips 11% when facing a batter from the left side of the plate.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

# Player Bats wOBA xwOBA ISO HC% BB% K% GB% FD Pos. FD Sal. DK Pos. DK Sal. FDRFT Pos. FDRFT Sal.
1 Adam Frazier LEFT 0.331 0.339 0.134 32.1% 8.7% 14.2% 46.9% OF $3,300 OF $4,400 IF/OF $8,700
2 Josh Harrison RIGHT 0.311 0.283 0.108 28.5% 4.2% 14.6% 42.5% 2B $3,300 2B/3B $4,300 2B $8,400
3 Gregory Polanco LEFT 0.330 0.344 0.189 33.5% 9.2% 16.6% 39.1% OF $2,900 OF $2,900 RF $5,700
4 David Freese RIGHT 0.319 0.323 0.135 32.5% 8.9% 26.8% 58.4% 3B $3,200 3B $3,900 3B $7,600
5 Josh Bell SWITCH 0.346 0.349 0.187 33.8% 12.3% 17.5% 50.0% 1B $2,900 1B $3,800 IF/OF $7,600
6 Andrew McCutchen RIGHT 0.316 0.331 0.156 35.1% 9.5% 21.4% 37.5% OF $3,600 OF $4,500 RF $8,800
7 Francisco Cervelli RIGHT 0.312 0.325 0.094 28.8% 13.2% 19.2% 52.4% C $2,700 C $3,000 C $6,000
8 Jordy Mercer RIGHT 0.308 0.298 0.112 25.2% 8.3% 14.4% 49.0% SS $2,900 SS $4,000 SS $7,600
9 Trevor Williams RIGHT 0.000 0.061 0.000 0.0% 0.0% 50.0% 75.0% P $6,000 P $5,400 P $10,800

Elite Plays – Gregory Polanco

Secondary Plays – Adam Frazier, David Freese, Josh Bell

Stackability – YELLOW

Arizona at Philadelphia – 7:05 PM ET

Arizona Philadelphia
arizonamlb Patrick Corbin philadelphiamlb Aaron Nola
LEFT RIGHT
Vegas Moneyline Vegas Over/Under
PHI-121 9.0
Stats wOBA xwOBA HC% BB% K% GB% Stats wOBA xwOBA HC% BB% K% GB%
SP vs. Left (2016-17) 0.310 0.311 36.1% 9.0% 29.2% 55.3% SP vs. Left (2016-17) 0.315 0.303 30.0% 9.3% 21.3% 52.1%
SP vs. Right (2016-17) 0.373 0.356 38.0% 8.5% 15.7% 51.6% SP vs. Right (2016-17) 0.297 0.275 27.2% 3.8% 26.9% 54.8%

Pitcher Grind Down

Patrick Corbin
patrick-corbin-300x200 FanDuel DraftKings FantasyDraft
Salary: $8,000 Salary: $7,400 Salary: $14,800
Salary Rank: 11 of 29 Salary Rank: 10 of 29 Salary Rank: 10 of 29
Stats Starts SIERA ERA K% BB% GB% HC% SC%
2016 24 4.38 5.15 18.7% 9.4% 53.8% 38.5% 15.2%
2017 13 4.32 5.38 18.8% 7.0% 49.4% 35.8% 15.6%

Through 13 starts this season, Corbin has a mediocre 4.32 SIERA with a below-average strikeout rate of 19%. He is a lefty that gives up a lot of hard contact to right-handed hitters. The Phillies may have struck out ten times against Chris Sale, but should make better contact tonight against Corbin. The real issue here isn’t the matchup, it’s the ballpark. Year after year, Citizens Bank Park is one of the best in baseball when it comes to home run production.

Quick Breakdown: If you want your Friday to get off to a good start, I would fade Corbin.

Aaron Nola
aaron-nola-300x200 FanDuel DraftKings FantasyDraft
Salary: $7,500 Salary: $6,300 Salary: $12,600
Salary Rank: 15 of 29 Salary Rank: 20 of 29 Salary Rank: 20 of 29
Stats Starts SIERA ERA K% BB% GB% HC% SC%
2016 20 3.29 4.78 25.1% 6.0% 55.2% 28.8% 23.2%
2017 8 4.06 4.40 21.9% 7.5% 49.2% 28.2% 23.7%

Nick Pivetta pitched a gem last night against the Red Sox, but that doesn’t mean that we should expect Nola to do the same. There are certainly some encouraging signs though, as Nola has a 22% strikeout rate with a 49% ground ball rate and a 24% soft contact rate. Those are all considerably better than major league averages. He also faces a Diamondbacks’ offense that is ranked dead last in team wOBA on the road this season. There is still some risk in this ballpark, but Nola is viable in large-field tournaments.

Quick Breakdown: Nola has some good qualities and a solid matchup, but this ballpark is always scary for pitchers.

Batter Grind Down

Arizona

The Diamondbacks go from one favorable ballpark to another in Citizens Bank Park. Their matchup against Aaron Nola leaves much to be desired, though. Nola has held both left and right-handed hitters under a .305 xwOBA and he has induced a 52%+ ground ball rate to batters from both sides of the plate. The big bats of David Peralta, Jake Lamb, and Paul Goldschmidt make viable one-off targets in this ballpark, but I won’t be looking to stack Arizona tonight.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

# Player Bats wOBA xwOBA ISO HC% BB% K% GB% FD Pos. FD Sal. DK Pos. DK Sal. FDRFT Pos. FDRFT Sal.
1 Gregor Blanco LEFT 0.299 0.278 0.100 24.9% 12.5% 20.1% 45.7% OF $2,800 OF $4,100 LF $8,000
2 David Peralta LEFT 0.343 0.318 0.163 35.4% 6.2% 18.0% 54.7% OF $3,400 OF $4,300 RF $8,400
3 Paul Goldschmidt RIGHT 0.388 0.385 0.218 39.1% 14.3% 20.7% 45.4% 1B $4,700 1B $5,600 1B $10,800
4 Jake Lamb LEFT 0.392 0.375 0.296 40.8% 11.4% 24.2% 42.4% 3B $4,100 3B $5,200 3B $10,000
5 Brandon Drury RIGHT 0.347 0.316 0.181 32.5% 6.8% 20.4% 49.3% 2B $2,700 2B $4,400 IF/OF $8,400
6 Chris Owings RIGHT 0.311 0.292 0.143 31.8% 4.2% 21.4% 49.5% SS $3,100 OF/SS $4,400 IF/OF $8,700
7 Daniel Descalso LEFT 0.338 0.326 0.170 32.6% 12.3% 20.1% 43.2% 2B $2,400 2B/OF $3,000 2B $6,000
8 Chris Herrmann LEFT 0.339 0.336 0.236 44.8% 10.9% 26.1% 39.9% C $2,300 C/OF $3,500 IF/OF $6,900
9 Patrick Corbin LEFT 0.251 0.197 0.055 12.8% 5.0% 30.0% 65.7% P $8,000 P $7,400 P $14,800

Elite Plays – None

Secondary Plays – David Peralta, Jake Lamb, Paul Goldschmidt

Stackability – ORANGE / YELLOW

Philadelphia

The Phillies aren’t a team that we usually stack, but I can see the appeal if you are making multiple lineups for a large-field tournament. Nobody is going to own the Phillies and they draw a favorable matchup against Patrick Corbin, who has allowed a .356 xwOBA and a 38% hard contact rate to right-handed hitters. The two through seven batters in this lineup all fare well against southpaws, specifically Tommy Joseph and Daniel Nava.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. LH Pitching)

# Player Bats wOBA xwOBA ISO HC% BB% K% GB% FD Pos. FD Sal. DK Pos. DK Sal. FDRFT Pos. FDRFT Sal.
1 Odubel Herrera LEFT 0.298 0.287 0.099 25.5% 8.5% 24.1% 55.5% OF $3,100 OF $3,400 IF/OF $6,800
2 Howie Kendrick RIGHT 0.315 0.365 0.077 32.1% 12.8% 17.9% 62.4% OF $3,000 OF $4,400 IF/OF $8,700
3 Tommy Joseph RIGHT 0.354 0.367 0.295 31.8% 9.0% 21.9% 38.3% 1B $3,400 1B $3,700 1B $7,200
4 Aaron Altherr RIGHT 0.340 0.335 0.220 33.3% 10.7% 18.4% 50.0% OF $3,300 OF $3,900 LF $7,600
5 Maikel Franco RIGHT 0.331 0.347 0.208 36.7% 6.6% 15.3% 46.0% 3B $3,000 3B $3,100 3B $6,000
6 Cameron Rupp RIGHT 0.413 0.322 0.278 35.1% 9.2% 26.1% 49.4% C $2,000 C $2,200 C $4,400
7 Daniel Nava SWITCH 0.362 0.391 0.048 31.3% 22.2% 18.5% 62.5% OF $2,500 OF $3,700 LF $7,200
8 Freddy Galvis SWITCH 0.236 0.257 0.115 24.9% 1.9% 17.7% 40.7% SS $2,500 SS $2,800 SS $5,600
9 Aaron Nola RIGHT 0.205 0.208 0.000 0.0% 18.2% 36.4% 100.0% P $7,500 P $6,300 P $12,600

Elite Plays – None

Secondary Plays – Howie Kendrick, Tommy Joseph, Aaron Altherr, Maikel Franco, Cameron Rupp, Daniel Nava

Stackability – YELLOW

Chicago White Sox at Toronto – 7:07 PM ET

Chicago White Sox Toronto
whitesoxmlb Jose Quintana torontomlb Joe Biagini
LEFT RIGHT
Vegas Moneyline Vegas Over/Under
TOR-150 8.5
Stats wOBA xwOBA HC% BB% K% GB% Stats wOBA xwOBA HC% BB% K% GB%
SP vs. Left (2016-17) 0.280 0.288 31.0% 4.7% 21.9% 49.2% SP vs. Left (2016-17) 0.292 0.262 28.3% 6.7% 24.2% 57.4%
SP vs. Right (2016-17) 0.314 0.300 32.0% 7.5% 22.0% 38.0% SP vs. Right (2016-17) 0.264 0.278 20.6% 5.4% 18.9% 53.9%

Pitcher Grind Down

Jose Quintana
jose-quintana-300x200 FanDuel DraftKings FantasyDraft
Salary: $7,900 Salary: $7,900 Salary: $15,200
Salary Rank: 13 of 29 Salary Rank: 7 of 29 Salary Rank: 7 of 29
Stats Starts SIERA ERA K% BB% GB% HC% SC%
2016 32 4.01 3.20 21.6% 6.0% 40.4% 32.7% 18.6%
2017 13 4.32 5.30 22.8% 9.2% 40.9% 29.2% 20.1%

Quintana can’t seem to catch a break as far as his matchups are concerned. He seems to go from one tough one to the next. Tonight’s sledding doesn’t get an easier, as he takes on the Blue Jays in the hitter-friendly Rogers Centre. Quintana’s one weakness is right-handed power bats and the Blue Jays’ lineup is full of them. I can make a case for Quintana in most spots, but not this one.

Quick Breakdown: In a 15 game slate, we can find a better option than a lefty against the Blue Jays.

Joe Biagini
joseph-biagini-300x200 FanDuel DraftKings FantasyDraft
Salary: $7,700 Salary: $6,900 Salary: $13,800
Salary Rank: 14 of 29 Salary Rank: 14 of 29 Salary Rank: 14 of 29
Stats Starts SIERA ERA K% BB% GB% HC% SC%
2016 0 3.45 3.06 21.0% 6.4% 52.2% 23.0% 17.7%
2017 7 3.44 3.38 21.4% 5.4% 59.4% 24.7% 19.1%

Biagini has three straight quality starts under his belt. His strikeout rate has come down as a starter, but that’s to be expected. He still offers decent strikeout upside, he is a sizable favorite at home, and he’s facing a White Sox offense that is ranked in the bottom five in team wOBA against right-handed pitching this season. Granted, Chicago’s offense has come alive in the last couple of weeks, but Biagini makes sense as an SP2 in both cash games and tournaments.

Quick Breakdown: Biagini seems a bit underpriced across the industry. He is firmly in play as an SP2 tonight.

Batter Grind Down

Chicago White Sox

The White Sox have surprisingly been a popular target of mine recently, but I’m not enticed by their matchup against Joe Biagini. In addition to the above-average strikeout rate, Biagini has a 54%+ ground ball rate against both left and right-handed hitters. He has also held batters from both sides of the plate under a .280 xwOBA in the last two seasons combined.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

# Player Bats wOBA xwOBA ISO HC% BB% K% GB% FD Pos. FD Sal. DK Pos. DK Sal. FDRFT Pos. FDRFT Sal.
1 Leury Garcia SWITCH 0.354 0.315 0.206 30.5% 4.6% 19.0% 51.2% OF $3,000 OF $3,700 CF $7,200
2 Melky Cabrera SWITCH 0.329 0.326 0.135 28.8% 7.8% 10.1% 45.8% OF $3,400 OF $3,700 LF $7,200
3 Jose Abreu RIGHT 0.336 0.342 0.161 32.8% 5.9% 17.3% 46.1% 1B $3,600 1B $4,500 1B $8,700
4 Avisail Garcia RIGHT 0.323 0.328 0.167 31.8% 5.7% 25.1% 52.7% OF $3,500 OF $4,500 RF $8,700
5 Todd Frazier RIGHT 0.323 0.320 0.224 31.5% 9.9% 23.1% 39.0% 3B $3,200 3B $3,500 3B $6,900
6 Tim Anderson RIGHT 0.295 0.276 0.152 30.5% 2.9% 26.7% 50.6% SS $2,900 SS $3,100 SS $6,000
7 Matt Davidson RIGHT 0.307 0.294 0.250 43.4% 4.5% 46.8% 28.3% 1B $2,800 1B/3B $4,000 3B $7,600
8 Omar Narvaez LEFT 0.278 0.304 0.025 15.2% 11.1% 12.2% 40.9% C $2,000 C $2,000 C $4,000
9 Yolmer Sanchez SWITCH 0.301 0.279 0.150 21.7% 4.4% 24.6% 39.9% 2B $2,800 2B $2,900 2B $5,600

Elite Plays – None

Secondary Plays – None

Stackability – ORANGE

Toronto

The Blue Jays don’t have the best track record against Jose Quintana, but Josh Donaldson and Kendrys Morales have both hit him well in the past. That shouldn’t be too surprising, as they boast a .416 xwOBA and a .396 xwOBA against lefties, respectively. A right-handed Blue Jays’ stack is firmly in play, even though Quintana isn’t a pitcher that we usually like to pick on. The home run upside of this lineup is appealing against a fly-ball pitcher.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. LH Pitching)

# Player Bats wOBA xwOBA ISO HC% BB% K% GB% FD Pos. FD Sal. DK Pos. DK Sal. FDRFT Pos. FDRFT Sal.
1 Kevin Pillar RIGHT 0.335 0.308 0.163 35.1% 3.7% 14.0% 36.8% OF $3,000 OF $3,400 CF $6,800
2 Josh Donaldson RIGHT 0.407 0.416 0.248 39.2% 18.3% 14.4% 33.3% 3B $4,100 3B $4,700 3B $9,300
3 Jose Bautista RIGHT 0.286 0.344 0.154 35.2% 14.3% 20.8% 42.6% OF $3,700 OF $4,200 RF $8,000
4 Kendrys Morales SWITCH 0.381 0.393 0.220 39.6% 4.8% 19.9% 39.0% 1B $3,300 1B $3,700 1B $7,200
5 Justin Smoak SWITCH 0.342 0.368 0.180 34.8% 10.1% 14.8% 40.2% 1B $3,700 1B $4,300 1B $8,400
6 Troy Tulowitzki RIGHT 0.305 0.310 0.148 30.1% 9.3% 15.3% 44.2% SS $2,700 SS $2,700 SS $5,200
7 Russell Martin RIGHT 0.312 0.357 0.145 45.2% 17.0% 30.2% 42.9% C $2,300 3B/C $3,400 C $6,600
8 Steve Pearce RIGHT 0.393 0.363 0.273 45.0% 12.0% 24.0% 36.3% OF $2,800 OF $3,300 1B $6,400
9 Darwin Barney RIGHT 0.302 0.288 0.083 25.0% 8.2% 18.2% 40.9% SS $2,000 2B/3B $2,000 2B $4,000

Elite Plays – Josh Donaldson, Kendrys Morales

Secondary Plays – Kevin Pillar, Jose Bautista, Justin Smoak, Russell Martin

Stackability – YELLOW / GREEN

Washington at NY Mets – 7:10 PM ET

Washington NY Mets
washingtonmlb Max Scherzer nymetsmlb Steven Matz
RIGHT LEFT
Vegas Moneyline Vegas Over/Under
WAS-140 7.5
Stats wOBA xwOBA HC% BB% K% GB% Stats wOBA xwOBA HC% BB% K% GB%
SP vs. Left (2016-17) 0.316 0.293 29.9% 9.0% 25.2% 33.6% SP vs. Left (2016-17) 0.296 0.253 18.8% 5.1% 19.0% 67.7%
SP vs. Right (2016-17) 0.197 0.219 28.4% 3.1% 40.4% 34.6% SP vs. Right (2016-17) 0.294 0.283 33.4% 5.7% 24.0% 44.1%

Pitcher Grind Down

Max Scherzer
max-scherzer-300x200 FanDuel DraftKings FantasyDraft
Salary: $12,400 Salary: $12,900 Salary: $25,200
Salary Rank: 1 of 29 Salary Rank: 1 of 29 Salary Rank: 1 of 29
Stats Starts SIERA ERA K% BB% GB% HC% SC%
2016 34 3.05 2.96 31.5% 6.2% 33.0% 30.1% 22.2%
2017 13 2.69 2.36 35.1% 6.0% 37.0% 27.0% 19.6%

Scherzer is by far the most talented pitcher taking the mound tonight. Even though he is on the road, he should garner plenty of ownership. The Mets have some good left-handed hitters in their lineup, but they haven’t been much of an issue for Scherzer in the past. The current roster of the Mets has a .252 batting average with a 30% strikeout rate against Scherzer in the past. We know that he is capable of a double-digit strikeout game every time he takes the mound and tonight is no exception. The only question is whether we want to pay up for pitching or for some of the hitters in Coors Field.

Quick Breakdown: Scherzer is an elite play in all formats.

Steven Matz
steven-matz-300x200 FanDuel DraftKings FantasyDraft
Salary: $8,900 Salary: $7,000 Salary: $14,000
Salary Rank: 5 of 29 Salary Rank: 13 of 29 Salary Rank: 13 of 29
Stats Starts SIERA ERA K% BB% GB% HC% SC%
2016 22 3.51 3.40 23.6% 5.7% 51.1% 30.4% 21.7%
2017 1 5.96 1.29 7.4% 3.7% 34.8% 20.8% 12.5%

Matz is making his second start of the season. He threw 98 pitches against the Braves in his first outing and struck out two batters in seven innings of work. We know that he is a talented young lefty, but I will wait at least one more start before targeting him in DFS. He draws one of the worst matchups in the slate, as he takes on a Nationals’ offense that is ranked ninth in team wOBA against left-handed pitching.

Quick Breakdown: Matz is an easy fade given the matchup and the fact that Max Scherzer is pitching opposite him.

Batter Grind Down

Washington

The Nationals draw a fairly difficult matchup against Steven Matz, who is a ground ball pitcher with an above-average strikeout rate. With 15 games on the schedule tonight, we don’t need to waste a ton of time on either offense in Citi Field. With that said, Ryan Zimmerman and Anthony Rendon both have a .379+ xwOBA and a 37%+ hard contact rate against southpaws.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. LH Pitching)

# Player Bats wOBA xwOBA ISO HC% BB% K% GB% FD Pos. FD Sal. DK Pos. DK Sal. FDRFT Pos. FDRFT Sal.
1 Trea Turner RIGHT 0.254 0.260 0.063 32.2% 2.6% 21.7% 49.4% SS $4,500 SS $5,100 IF/OF $10,000
2 Ryan Raburn RIGHT 0.337 0.297 0.222 35.9% 13.8% 24.6% 47.4% OF $2,500 OF $2,000 LF $4,000
3 Bryce Harper LEFT 0.331 0.303 0.188 31.2% 12.0% 28.8% 44.9% OF $4,700 OF $5,200 RF $10,000
4 Ryan Zimmerman RIGHT 0.360 0.391 0.285 40.2% 9.5% 14.9% 51.8% 1B $4,100 1B $4,900 1B $9,600
5 Daniel Murphy LEFT 0.382 0.373 0.217 34.3% 5.8% 12.8% 37.1% 2B $3,900 2B $4,400 2B $8,400
6 Anthony Rendon RIGHT 0.401 0.379 0.210 37.4% 17.8% 14.2% 33.9% 3B $3,600 3B $3,500 3B $6,800
7 Matt Wieters SWITCH 0.306 0.338 0.136 29.4% 9.0% 20.7% 37.3% C $2,600 C $2,900 C $5,700
8 Michael Taylor RIGHT 0.330 0.307 0.169 36.5% 5.6% 35.2% 49.3% OF $3,100 OF $3,400 CF $6,800
9 Max Scherzer RIGHT 0.135 0.177 0.000 14.3% 0.0% 50.0% 33.3% P $12,400 P $12,900 P $25,200

Elite Plays – None

Secondary Plays – Ryan Raburn, Ryan Zimmerman, Anthony Rendon

Stackability – ORANGE

NY Mets

The Mets have the worst matchup in the slate. Michael Conforto, Jay Bruce, Curtis Granderson, and Yoenis Cespedes have all homered off of Max Scherzer in the past, but I will be steering clear of this offense. Max Scherzer is one of the best pitchers in all of baseball.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

# Player Bats wOBA xwOBA ISO HC% BB% K% GB% FD Pos. FD Sal. DK Pos. DK Sal. FDRFT Pos. FDRFT Sal.
1 Michael Conforto LEFT 0.372 0.369 0.254 43.7% 12.7% 23.6% 36.1% OF $2,700 OF $4,400 LF $8,400
2 Jose Reyes SWITCH 0.265 0.264 0.115 25.9% 7.3% 16.1% 37.3% SS $2,200 3B/SS $2,900 SS $5,600
3 Yoenis Cespedes RIGHT 0.357 0.357 0.246 38.8% 8.2% 20.0% 36.5% OF $2,600 OF $4,100 LF $8,100
4 Jay Bruce LEFT 0.377 0.369 0.304 42.1% 9.3% 20.5% 35.7% OF $2,300 1B/OF $4,100 RF $8,000
5 Lucas Duda LEFT 0.351 0.382 0.230 41.0% 11.7% 22.1% 33.3% 1B $2,300 1B $3,500 1B $6,900
6 Wilmer Flores RIGHT 0.298 0.284 0.135 29.9% 6.2% 16.0% 37.9% 3B $2,200 2B/3B $2,800 3B $5,600
7 T.J. Rivera RIGHT 0.371 0.313 0.174 27.1% 4.2% 9.0% 39.6% 2B $2,100 1B/3B $2,600 3B $5,100
8 Travis d’Arnaud RIGHT 0.284 0.304 0.127 33.6% 6.1% 17.1% 47.4% C $2,000 C $3,000 C $6,000
9 Steven Matz LEFT 0.107 0.235 0.000 16.7% 2.9% 23.5% 47.6% P $8,900 P $7,000 P $14,000

Elite Plays – None

Secondary Plays – None

Stackability – RED

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About the Author

Notorious
Derek Farnsworth (Notorious)

Derek Farnsworth (aka Notorious) is a lead RotoGrinders Expert and one of the most recognizable names and faces in all of DFS. Before joining the RotoGrinders team, Derek received a Master’s Degree from the University of Utah. When he’s not busy providing content, he’s dominating the DFS industry as evidenced by his consistent top rankings in several sports and multiple Live Final appearances. Noto provides expert NBA, NFL, MLB, and PGA analysis for RotoGrinders Premium members on a daily basis and has also been nominated for five different Fantasy Sports Writer’s Association (FSWA) awards. Follow Noto on X – @RG_Notorious