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MLB Grind Down: Friday, June 23rd

by Derek Farnsworth (Notorious) Last Updated 2017-06-24 01:40:31

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The RotoGrinders MLB Grind Down will give you an in-depth analysis into the upcoming MLB schedule. This article will break down the numbers for every single game and give you analysis on which trends you can exploit. While matchups are a major factor in daily fantasy baseball, there are plenty of other factors to consider such as injuries, weather, and salaries.

The analysis should point you in the right direction, but it is still up to you to decipher the information and make your own selections. No sport has more variance than baseball. The best choice is not always the right choice but following the trends will win you money over time.

Note: As always, if you want to try a new DFS site, be sure to click through a RotoGrinders link and use our DraftKings promo code, FanDuel promo code, and FantasyDraft promo code to receive the best perks in the industry.

Stackability Rating System:

GREEN – A viable full stack in cash games and GPPs.
YELLOW – A viable mini-stack in cash games and full stack in GPPs.
ORANGE – A viable stack in large field GPPs.
RED – Not a recommended stack for cash games or GPPs.

Cincinnati at Washington – 7:05 PM ET

Cincinnati Washington
Article Image Luis Castillo Article Image Stephen Strasburg
RIGHT RIGHT
Vegas Moneyline Vegas Over/Under
WAS-250 9.0
Stats wOBA xwOBA HC% BB% K% GB% Stats wOBA xwOBA HC% BB% K% GB%
SP vs. Left (2016-17) SP vs. Left (2016-17) 0.268 0.263 24.4% 8.1% 30.6% 44.9%
SP vs. Right (2016-17) SP vs. Right (2016-17) 0.280 0.299 29.7% 6.2% 28.7% 39.3%

Pitcher Grind Down

Luis Castillo
Article Image FanDuel DraftKings FantasyDraft
Salary: $5,500 Salary: $4,400 Salary: $8,700
Salary Rank: 29 of 30 Salary Rank: 29 of 30 Salary Rank: 29 of 30
Stats Starts SIERA ERA K% BB% GB% HC% SC%

Castillo will be making his major league debut tonight against the Nationals. He was called up from Double-A, after posting a 2.56 FIP with a strikeout rate of 26% in 14 starts. Castillo has an electric fastball that sits in the 95-97 MPH range, but the pitch does lack movement. He also has a slider and a changeup, both of which apparently need some work. Even though he is an easy fade against the Nationals, I like to give some background on these rookie pitchers when they are called up to the big leagues.

Quick Breakdown: In a 15 game slate, it doesn’t hurt to take a wait and see approach with Castillo.

Stephen Strasburg
Article Image FanDuel DraftKings FantasyDraft
Salary: $10,900 Salary: $11,700 Salary: $22,800
Salary Rank: 1 of 30 Salary Rank: 2 of 30 Salary Rank: 2 of 30
Stats Starts SIERA ERA K% BB% GB% HC% SC%
2016 24 3.18 3.60 30.6% 7.4% 39.5% 26.6% 21.4%
2017 14 3.43 3.28 28.1% 6.8% 46.0% 28.0% 20.5%

Strasburg is having another solid season, posting a 3.43 SIERA with a strikeout rate of 28%. He has always done a nice job of limiting hard contact and he is inducing more ground balls this season. Tonight’s matchup against the Reds may not be ideal, but at least he is facing them at home in the pitcher-friendly Nationals Park. The decision at the top tonight is basically between Strasburg and Chris Archer. It’s early, but I expect Archer to garner more ownership thanks to a slightly better strikeout matchup.

Quick Breakdown: Strasburg is an elite play in all formats, but I slightly prefer Archer over him with everything else being equal.

Batter Grind Down

Cincinnati

The Reds see a negative ballpark shift playing in Washington and draw one of the worst matchups in the slate. That’s a combination that I don’t want anything to do with, especially in a 15 game slate. In the last two seasons, Stephen Strasburg has held both left and right-handed hitters under a .300 xwOBA and under a 30% hard contact rate.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

# Player Bats wOBA xwOBA ISO HC% BB% K% GB% FD Pos. FD Sal. DK Pos. DK Sal. FDRFT Pos. FDRFT Sal.
1 Billy Hamilton SWITCH 0.302 0.252 0.078 18.5% 8.9% 20.1% 47.5% OF $2,700 OF $4,200 CF $8,000
2 Scooter Gennett LEFT 0.326 0.292 0.175 31.3% 5.4% 20.1% 42.9% 2B $2,700 2B/OF $3,600 2B $7,200
3 Joey Votto LEFT 0.423 0.436 0.257 40.1% 17.3% 14.3% 37.2% 1B $3,900 1B $4,500 1B $8,800
4 Adam Duvall RIGHT 0.332 0.326 0.253 36.6% 5.8% 27.0% 33.7% OF $2,700 OF $4,000 IF/OF $7,600
5 Scott Schebler LEFT 0.341 0.335 0.215 35.9% 7.9% 21.4% 49.3% OF $2,800 OF $3,700 RF $7,200
6 Eugenio Suarez RIGHT 0.316 0.315 0.155 33.2% 8.2% 23.6% 40.9% 3B $3,100 3B $3,600 3B $7,200
7 Jose Peraza RIGHT 0.309 0.297 0.093 19.6% 1.8% 13.7% 43.7% SS $2,200 2B $3,000 2B $6,000
8 Tucker Barnhart SWITCH 0.316 0.332 0.127 31.2% 9.1% 14.3% 44.9% C $2,500 C $2,400 C $4,800
9 Luis Castillo RIGHT P $5,500 P $4,400 P $8,700

Elite Plays – None

Secondary Plays – None

Stackability – RED

Washington

When pitchers make their major league debut, there is typically a wide range of outcomes. Sometimes they are able to pitch well against batters that have never seen their pitches, but more often than not, we see the nerves or big league talent win out. The Nationals have one of the highest implied run totals in the slate and make sense as a stack in tournaments. For cash games, the Nationals are bit more of a tough sell, as Luis Castillo is still a wildcard at this point.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

# Player Bats wOBA xwOBA ISO HC% BB% K% GB% FD Pos. FD Sal. DK Pos. DK Sal. FDRFT Pos. FDRFT Sal.
1 Trea Turner RIGHT 0.382 0.329 0.232 30.8% 4.5% 18.3% 47.5% SS $4,200 SS $5,200 IF/OF $10,200
2 Brian Goodwin LEFT 0.317 0.264 0.224 33.3% 5.7% 25.7% 45.7% OF $2,400 OF $3,500 RF $6,900
3 Bryce Harper LEFT 0.382 0.397 0.245 34.9% 18.3% 15.5% 39.4% OF $4,800 OF $5,500 RF $10,800
4 Ryan Zimmerman RIGHT 0.331 0.341 0.198 36.4% 5.7% 23.0% 44.7% 1B $4,100 1B $4,600 1B $9,000
5 Daniel Murphy LEFT 0.412 0.396 0.247 38.2% 6.7% 8.8% 35.9% 2B $4,100 2B $4,900 2B $9,600
6 Anthony Rendon RIGHT 0.343 0.344 0.189 34.8% 9.7% 17.8% 37.1% 3B $3,600 3B $4,400 3B $8,700
7 Matt Wieters SWITCH 0.307 0.320 0.161 33.3% 6.4% 17.8% 37.3% C $2,400 C $3,100 C $6,000
8 Michael Taylor RIGHT 0.284 0.273 0.167 31.6% 5.2% 31.6% 41.5% OF $3,300 OF $4,100 CF $8,000
9 Stephen Strasburg RIGHT 0.182 0.199 0.070 11.1% 3.0% 15.2% 72.7% P $10,900 P $11,700 P $22,800

Elite Plays – None

Secondary Plays – Trea Turner, Brian Goodwin, Bryce Harper, Ryan Zimmerman, Daniel Murphy, Anthony Rendon

Stackability – YELLOW / GREEN

Texas at NY Yankees – 7:05 PM ET

Texas NY Yankees
Article Image Yu Darvish Article Image Masahiro Tanaka
RIGHT RIGHT
Vegas Moneyline Vegas Over/Under
NYY-115 10.0
Stats wOBA xwOBA HC% BB% K% GB% Stats wOBA xwOBA HC% BB% K% GB%
SP vs. Left (2016-17) 0.271 0.273 33.3% 9.4% 30.4% 45.4% SP vs. Left (2016-17) 0.303 0.310 32.8% 4.3% 20.5% 51.0%
SP vs. Right (2016-17) 0.279 0.289 28.5% 7.7% 27.7% 36.3% SP vs. Right (2016-17) 0.313 0.310 33.5% 5.6% 21.5% 44.9%

Pitcher Grind Down

Yu Darvish
Article Image FanDuel DraftKings FantasyDraft
Salary: $9,400 Salary: $9,300 Salary: $18,000
Salary Rank: 5 of 30 Salary Rank: 4 of 30 Salary Rank: 4 of 30
Stats Starts SIERA ERA K% BB% GB% HC% SC%
2016 17 3.08 3.41 31.7% 7.5% 40.4% 30.0% 22.8%
2017 14 4.09 3.03 25.8% 9.7% 40.4% 31.4% 17.0%

Darvish is still have an above-average season compared to the rest of the majors, but it’s subpar compared to his standards. His SIERA and walk rate are both up, while his strikeout rate and soft contact rate are both down. We’ve seen the Yankees struggle a bit against top-notch pitching, but that doesn’t mean that I will be targeting a pitcher against them anytime soon. They are still the best offense in baseball against right-handed pitching and average the seventh most pitches per plate appearance.

Quick Breakdown: I was expecting Darvish to be priced at a steep discount today. Since that’s not the case, he is an easy fade in New York.

Masahiro Tanaka
Article Image FanDuel DraftKings FantasyDraft
Salary: $8,300 Salary: $6,900 Salary: $13,600
Salary Rank: 12 of 30 Salary Rank: 13 of 30 Salary Rank: 13 of 30
Stats Starts SIERA ERA K% BB% GB% HC% SC%
2016 31 3.79 3.07 20.5% 4.5% 48.2% 32.5% 18.5%
2017 14 4.00 6.34 22.2% 6.1% 46.7% 35.0% 18.1%

Tanaka has had one of the most up and down seasons in recent memory. If you don’t believe me, just pull up his game log on any of the fantasy sites. I expect some positive regression moving forward, as a 25% HR/FB rate is not sustainable. The strikeout rate and swinging strike rate are both up this season and he still has a slightly above-average ground ball rate. Now, with all of that said, I do not recommend playing him tonight against the Rangers. Now that they are healthy, they are a top ten offense that is going to be one of the toughest to strikeout in baseball.

Quick Breakdown: It wouldn’t shock me to see Tanaka pitch well here, but the risk outweighs the potential reward.

Batter Grind Down

Texas

The Rangers are a boom or bust option for tournaments tonight. They are playing in a hitter-friendly ballpark and get to face Masahiro Tanaka, who has struggled with allowing too many home runs throughout his career (especially this season). For what it’s worth, the current Rangers’ roster has had 63 plate appearances against Tanaka and boasts a combined .494 wOBA and nine extra-base hits.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

# Player Bats wOBA xwOBA ISO HC% BB% K% GB% FD Pos. FD Sal. DK Pos. DK Sal. FDRFT Pos. FDRFT Sal.
1 Shin-soo Choo LEFT 0.336 0.384 0.162 40.9% 13.1% 21.1% 47.5% OF $3,700 OF $4,000 RF $7,800
2 Elvis Andrus RIGHT 0.337 0.317 0.140 26.9% 7.8% 14.3% 46.5% SS $2,900 SS $4,200 SS $8,000
3 Nomar Mazara LEFT 0.344 0.336 0.190 31.0% 8.2% 18.9% 43.7% OF $3,500 OF $4,100 RF $8,000
4 Adrian Beltre RIGHT 0.355 0.363 0.200 33.9% 6.5% 10.9% 40.1% 3B $3,600 3B $4,200 3B $8,000
5 Rougned Odor LEFT 0.334 0.299 0.248 34.8% 3.1% 22.4% 39.3% 2B $3,400 2B $3,400 2B $6,600
6 Carlos Gomez RIGHT 0.323 0.301 0.183 33.5% 9.1% 27.7% 41.9% OF $3,700 OF $4,300 CF $8,400
7 Jonathan Lucroy RIGHT 0.351 0.336 0.173 30.4% 7.1% 14.6% 42.8% C $2,800 C $3,400 C $6,800
8 Mike Napoli RIGHT 0.323 0.329 0.236 34.4% 9.5% 30.0% 36.9% 1B $3,200 1B $3,300 1B $6,600
9 Joey Gallo LEFT 0.319 0.322 0.289 41.8% 12.5% 38.9% 27.2% 1B $3,200 1B/3B $3,600 IF/OF $7,200

Elite Plays – None

Secondary Plays – Shin-Soo Choo, Nomar Mazara, Adrian Beltre, Rougned Odor, Carlos Gomez

Stackability – YELLOW

NY Yankees

When the Yankees are facing an average or subpar pitcher, they are basically an auto-stack in tournaments. When they are facing an above-average pitcher like Yu Darvish, I tend to have less exposure to them than the field. It’s not that they can’t knock Darvish around, but we don’t need to take on unnecessary risk in a 15 game slate. In addition to an elite strikeout rate, Darvish has held both left and right-handed hitters under a .290 xwOBA in the last two seasons.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

# Player Bats wOBA xwOBA ISO HC% BB% K% GB% FD Pos. FD Sal. DK Pos. DK Sal. FDRFT Pos. FDRFT Sal.
1 Brett Gardner LEFT 0.344 0.326 0.149 30.7% 12.2% 17.7% 47.7% OF $3,500 OF $4,200 LF $8,100
2 Aaron Hicks SWITCH 0.342 0.311 0.168 26.5% 12.6% 18.1% 46.1% OF $3,200 OF $4,200 CF $8,100
3 Aaron Judge RIGHT 0.415 0.415 0.320 49.4% 12.5% 33.4% 38.0% OF $4,300 OF $5,400 RF $10,500
4 Matt Holliday RIGHT 0.352 0.361 0.212 35.7% 9.8% 20.1% 49.8% 1B $3,400 1B $4,400 IF/OF $8,700
5 Starlin Castro RIGHT 0.336 0.311 0.181 31.8% 3.6% 18.9% 49.2% 2B $3,000 2B $4,000 2B $7,800
6 Gary Sanchez RIGHT 0.433 0.390 0.316 38.3% 9.0% 22.1% 47.8% C $3,500 C $4,700 C $9,200
7 Didi Gregorius LEFT 0.313 0.263 0.178 24.4% 3.1% 15.6% 41.6% SS $3,000 SS $3,700 SS $7,200
8 Chase Headley SWITCH 0.328 0.327 0.153 32.0% 11.6% 24.9% 43.8% 3B $2,800 3B $2,900 3B $5,600
9 Chris Carter RIGHT 0.334 0.347 0.242 39.3% 11.6% 34.4% 29.9% 1B $2,200 1B $3,300 1B $6,400

Elite Plays – None

Secondary Plays – Brett Gardner, Aaron Judge, Gary Sanchez

Stackability – ORANGE / YELLOW

Chicago Cubs at Miami – 7:10 PM ET

Chicago Cubs Miami
Article Image John Lackey Article Image Jose Urena
RIGHT RIGHT
Vegas Moneyline Vegas Over/Under
CHC-115 9.0
Stats wOBA xwOBA HC% BB% K% GB% Stats wOBA xwOBA HC% BB% K% GB%
SP vs. Left (2016-17) 0.328 0.349 35.6% 8.6% 19.7% 44.9% SP vs. Left (2016-17) 0.325 0.338 31.3% 7.7% 10.6% 40.6%
SP vs. Right (2016-17) 0.285 0.302 35.8% 5.8% 26.5% 39.2% SP vs. Right (2016-17) 0.338 0.330 32.3% 8.7% 19.9% 50.0%

Pitcher Grind Down

John Lackey
Article Image FanDuel DraftKings FantasyDraft
Salary: $8,500 Salary: $6,500 Salary: $12,800
Salary Rank: 8 of 30 Salary Rank: 17 of 30 Salary Rank: 17 of 30
Stats Starts SIERA ERA K% BB% GB% HC% SC%
2016 29 3.83 3.35 24.1% 7.1% 41.0% 34.4% 16.2%
2017 13 4.17 5.26 22.1% 7.0% 43.5% 38.7% 14.4%

Lackey still has an impressive strikeout rate for a pitcher this late in his career, but the rest of his numbers have dropped off since last season. His SIERA and hard contact rate are both up. The good news is that his high ERA has led to a discounted price point. The bad news is that the Marlins have the ninth lowest strikeout rate against right-handed pitching this season. At $6,500 on DraftKings, Lackey has some appeal in tournaments, but he’s not a core play for me in this 15 game slate.

Quick Breakdown: Lackey is viable as an SP2 in tournaments, but he is a boom or bust option in this matchup.

Jose Urena
Article Image FanDuel DraftKings FantasyDraft
Salary: $7,000 Salary: $5,200 Salary: $10,200
Salary Rank: 24 of 30 Salary Rank: 27 of 30 Salary Rank: 27 of 30
Stats Starts SIERA ERA K% BB% GB% HC% SC%
2016 12 4.66 6.13 15.6% 7.8% 47.7% 32.5% 21.4%
2017 8 5.25 3.70 14.8% 8.8% 40.7% 30.7% 21.0%

Urena does not fit the mold of what we are looking for in a pitcher. He has a low strikeout rate, he struggles with his command at times, and he draws a tough matchup against the Cubs. Granted, Chicago has struggled against right-handed pitching this season, but they are still a talented offense.

Quick Breakdown: This is not the spot to take a flier on Urena.

Batter Grind Down

Chicago Cubs

The Cubs are a viable stack yet again. They teed off against Jeff Locke and got into the Marlins’ bullpen early last night and I like their chances to do the same tonight. Jose Urena is a low strikeout pitcher that has allowed a .330+ xwOBA and a 31%+ hard contact rate to both left and right-handed hitters. It’s always hard to recommend plays before seeing Chicago’s lineup because they have been mixing it up so often, but this is a great spot for the offense as a whole.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

# Player Bats wOBA xwOBA ISO HC% BB% K% GB% FD Pos. FD Sal. DK Pos. DK Sal. FDRFT Pos. FDRFT Sal.
1 Anthony Rizzo LEFT 0.391 0.384 0.254 37.0% 12.9% 15.5% 37.2% 1B $4,500 1B $5,400 1B $10,500
2 Kris Bryant RIGHT 0.374 0.350 0.239 36.4% 10.2% 22.8% 30.9% 3B $3,800 3B $4,600 IF/OF $9,000
3 Ian Happ SWITCH 0.370 0.355 0.333 35.3% 11.2% 30.3% 45.1% 2B $3,500 2B/OF $4,300 IF/OF $8,400
4 Willson Contreras RIGHT 0.330 0.305 0.185 32.9% 8.8% 28.2% 54.1% C $2,600 C $3,600 IF/OF $7,200
5 Addison Russell RIGHT 0.300 0.292 0.161 28.3% 7.5% 22.6% 42.9% SS $2,800 SS $3,800 SS $7,600
6 Tommy La Stella LEFT 0.346 0.354 0.138 33.9% 12.4% 15.8% 35.5% 2B $2,000 2B/3B $2,800 3B $5,600
7 Javier Baez RIGHT 0.291 0.262 0.156 28.7% 2.0% 26.0% 45.5% 2B $2,400 2B/SS $3,300 2B $6,400
8 John Lackey RIGHT 0.157 0.168 0.047 24.3% 2.9% 44.3% 57.6% P $8,500 P $6,500 P $12,800
9 Jon Jay LEFT 0.314 0.298 0.102 29.3% 5.0% 21.6% 51.8% OF $2,200 OF $3,300 CF $6,400

Elite Plays – Anthony Rizzo, Kris Bryant

Secondary Plays – Ian Happ, Willson Contreras, Addison Russell, Javier Baez

Stackability – YELLOW / GREEN

Miami

Even though I may have a share or two of John Lackey in tournaments, I will also have some exposure to the Marlins’ offense. John Lackey has really struggled against left-handed hitters and has allowed a massive 39% hard contact rate this season. Justin Bour doesn’t get the credit he deserves, despite having a .394 xwOBA, a .239 ISO, and a 40% hard contact rate against right-handed pitching. Dee Gordon and Christian Yelich are also viable, although they are typically best suited in a cash game setting.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

# Player Bats wOBA xwOBA ISO HC% BB% K% GB% FD Pos. FD Sal. DK Pos. DK Sal. FDRFT Pos. FDRFT Sal.
1 Dee Gordon LEFT 0.301 0.245 0.079 18.6% 5.4% 15.1% 56.8% 2B $3,200 2B $3,800 2B $7,500
2 Giancarlo Stanton RIGHT 0.338 0.339 0.229 36.8% 9.6% 28.1% 40.4% OF $4,000 OF $4,200 RF $8,100
3 Christian Yelich LEFT 0.368 0.383 0.185 39.9% 11.8% 19.8% 55.0% OF $3,600 OF $3,800 CF $7,500
4 Marcell Ozuna RIGHT 0.347 0.341 0.197 37.2% 7.6% 20.1% 46.5% OF $3,900 OF $4,100 LF $8,100
5 Justin Bour LEFT 0.362 0.394 0.239 40.2% 11.9% 17.1% 44.9% 1B $3,200 1B $4,500 1B $8,800
6 J.T. Realmuto RIGHT 0.338 0.311 0.125 30.7% 5.4% 17.1% 49.9% C $3,000 C $3,600 C $7,200
7 Derek Dietrich LEFT 0.333 0.333 0.149 29.6% 7.6% 19.6% 38.2% 3B $2,700 3B $3,100 3B $6,000
8 JT Riddle LEFT 0.294 0.300 0.150 41.7% 4.5% 19.1% 46.9% SS $2,500 SS $2,500 SS $4,800
9 Jose Urena RIGHT 0.102 0.113 0.000 11.1% 3.3% 36.7% 71.4% P $7,000 P $5,200 P $10,200

Elite Plays – Justin Bour

Secondary Plays – Dee Gordon, Christian Yelich

Stackability – ORANGE

Minnesota at Cleveland – 7:10 PM ET

Minnesota Cleveland
Article Image Adalberto Mejia Article Image Trevor Bauer
LEFT RIGHT
Vegas Moneyline Vegas Over/Under
CLE-180 10.0
Stats wOBA xwOBA HC% BB% K% GB% Stats wOBA xwOBA HC% BB% K% GB%
SP vs. Left (2016-17) 0.422 0.322 27.3% 6.5% 22.6% 40.9% SP vs. Left (2016-17) 0.316 0.326 37.1% 8.1% 24.2% 40.9%
SP vs. Right (2016-17) 0.368 0.375 37.2% 12.7% 17.6% 41.6% SP vs. Right (2016-17) 0.326 0.333 31.0% 9.5% 21.0% 54.7%

Pitcher Grind Down

Adalberto Mejia
Article Image FanDuel DraftKings FantasyDraft
Salary: $5,800 Salary: $4,700 Salary: $9,200
Salary Rank: 28 of 30 Salary Rank: 28 of 30 Salary Rank: 28 of 30
Stats Starts SIERA ERA K% BB% GB% HC% SC%
2016 0 7.02 7.71 7.7% 33.3% 41.7% 8.3%
2017 9 5.11 5.53 19.7% 12.0% 42.3% 35.0% 20.3%

Mejia has really struggled this season, posting a 5.11 SIERA with a high walk rate (12%) and a high hard contact rate (35%). The Indians are better offensively against right-handed pitching, but they should have no issues getting to Mejia in this one. On the season, Cleveland is ranked 15th in team wOBA and second in strikeout rate against southpaws. They are also one of the largest favorites on the board.

Quick Breakdown: Avoid Mejia in both cash games and tournaments.

Trevor Bauer
Article Image FanDuel DraftKings FantasyDraft
Salary: $8,600 Salary: $7,100 Salary: $14,000
Salary Rank: 7 of 30 Salary Rank: 12 of 30 Salary Rank: 12 of 30
Stats Starts SIERA ERA K% BB% GB% HC% SC%
2016 28 4.22 4.26 20.7% 8.6% 48.7% 31.9% 19.0%
2017 13 3.81 5.85 27.4% 9.5% 47.5% 39.6% 12.8%

Bauer is coming off of a strong start against this same Twins’ team. He struck out eight batters in seven innings of work, while only allowing two runs. His advanced statistics have been solid this season, but he has allowed far too much hard contact to ever consider using him in a cash game setting. At $7,100 on DraftKings and $14,000 on FantasyDraft, Bauer could be worth a look as an SP2 in tournaments. We know the strikeout upside is there, it’s just whether or not he can string together a couple of solid outings in a row.

Quick Breakdown: Bauer is an easy fade in cash games, but he has some appeal in tournaments as an SP2.

Batter Grind Down

Minnesota

The Twins have not hit Trevor Bauer well in the past. In over 200 at bats, they have a combined .301 wOBA with a strikeout rate of 22%. To make matters worse, they are facing him on the road in a fairly neutral ballpark for hitters and pitchers. Miguel Sano always carries some appeal as a one-off target in tournaments. We know Bauer gives up a lot of hard contact and Sano owns a .351 xwOBA with a 44% hard contact rate against right-handed pitching. Max Kepler also offers good value on DraftKings ($3,500) and FantasyDraft ($6,800).

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

# Player Bats wOBA xwOBA ISO HC% BB% K% GB% FD Pos. FD Sal. DK Pos. DK Sal. FDRFT Pos. FDRFT Sal.
1 Brian Dozier RIGHT 0.347 0.325 0.238 33.2% 9.5% 19.6% 37.5% 2B $3,300 2B $4,700 2B $9,200
2 Joe Mauer LEFT 0.343 0.391 0.137 34.7% 13.5% 15.3% 47.3% 1B $3,500 1B $3,800 1B $7,600
3 Miguel Sano RIGHT 0.353 0.351 0.238 44.4% 11.2% 36.6% 33.4% 3B $4,200 3B $4,900 IF/OF $9,600
4 Max Kepler LEFT 0.342 0.324 0.215 35.5% 9.8% 18.2% 42.6% OF $3,000 OF $3,500 RF $6,800
5 Eduardo Escobar SWITCH 0.286 0.302 0.115 27.4% 5.4% 16.9% 38.6% SS $3,300 3B/SS $4,000 SS $7,600
6 Eddie Rosario LEFT 0.322 0.288 0.202 33.7% 4.6% 23.2% 44.5% OF $2,900 OF $3,900 LF $7,800
7 Jorge Polanco SWITCH 0.306 0.298 0.109 24.4% 7.8% 13.3% 36.0% SS $2,900 SS $3,200 SS $6,300
8 Byron Buxton RIGHT 0.279 0.234 0.162 23.2% 6.0% 35.5% 38.8% OF $2,600 OF $3,300 CF $6,400
9 Jason Castro LEFT 0.325 0.326 0.189 37.1% 12.6% 31.7% 41.3% C $3,000 C $2,900 C $5,700

Elite Plays – None

Secondary Plays – Brian Dozier, Miguel Sano, Max Kepler (DK & FDRFT)

Stackability – ORANGE / YELLOW

Cleveland

The Indians fare better against right-handed pitching, but are still hovering right around the major league average in team wOBA against lefties. They draw an excellent matchup tonight at home against Adalberto Mejia , who has allowed a .375 xwOBA and a 37% hard contact rate to left-handed hitters. Mejia’s walk rate is nearly as high as his strikeout rate when facing a righty, which should lead to a lot of baserunners for the Indians. Francisco Lindor, Jose Ramirez, Edwin Encarnacion, Carlos Santana, and Austin Jackson are all viable here, although I prefer a mini-stack over a complete Indians’ stack.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. LH Pitching)

# Player Bats wOBA xwOBA ISO HC% BB% K% GB% FD Pos. FD Sal. DK Pos. DK Sal. FDRFT Pos. FDRFT Sal.
1 Francisco Lindor SWITCH 0.336 0.336 0.162 33.8% 7.2% 13.6% 45.6% SS $3,600 SS $4,800 SS $9,300
2 Jason Kipnis LEFT 0.322 0.312 0.181 28.3% 6.1% 23.1% 42.9% 2B $3,400 2B $4,300 2B $8,400
3 Jose Ramirez SWITCH 0.357 0.343 0.174 31.9% 6.9% 13.9% 43.6% 3B $4,300 2B/3B $5,100 IF/OF $9,900
4 Edwin Encarnacion RIGHT 0.391 0.395 0.249 41.3% 19.2% 21.6% 40.6% 1B $3,900 1B $5,300 1B $10,400
5 Carlos Santana SWITCH 0.300 0.324 0.118 30.2% 10.8% 9.2% 53.6% 1B $3,300 1B $4,300 1B $8,400
6 Austin Jackson RIGHT 0.305 0.313 0.134 40.0% 10.9% 20.9% 40.5% OF $2,800 OF $3,800 CF $7,600
7 Yan Gomes RIGHT 0.331 0.304 0.198 31.4% 7.0% 24.8% 42.4% C $2,600 C $3,200 C $6,400
8 Erik Gonzalez RIGHT 0.233 0.168 0.000 44.4% 5.3% 47.4% 100.0% 2B $2,000 2B/SS $3,200 SS $6,400
9 Daniel Robertson RIGHT 0.347 0.288 0.113 21.2% 6.9% 3.4% 64.0% 2B $2,600 2B/3B $3,200 LF $5,400

Elite Plays – Francisco Lindor, Edwin Encarnacion

Secondary Plays – Jose Ramirez, Carlos Santana, Austin Jackson, Yan Gomes

Stackability – YELLOW / GREEN

Baltimore at Tampa Bay – 7:10 PM ET

Baltimore Tampa Bay
Article Image Ubaldo Jimenez Article Image Chris Archer
RIGHT RIGHT
Vegas Moneyline Vegas Over/Under
TB -190 9.0
Stats wOBA xwOBA HC% BB% K% GB% Stats wOBA xwOBA HC% BB% K% GB%
SP vs. Left (2016-17) 0.392 0.327 31.8% 11.8% 22.0% 44.3% SP vs. Left (2016-17) 0.313 0.301 36.4% 8.6% 28.3% 44.9%
SP vs. Right (2016-17) 0.308 0.325 32.0% 10.4% 17.8% 50.7% SP vs. Right (2016-17) 0.287 0.295 32.9% 7.1% 28.2% 47.3%

Pitcher Grind Down

Ubaldo Jimenez
Article Image FanDuel DraftKings FantasyDraft
Salary: $6,600 Salary: $5,400 Salary: $10,800
Salary Rank: 25 of 30 Salary Rank: 25 of 30 Salary Rank: 24 of 30
Stats Starts SIERA ERA K% BB% GB% HC% SC%
2016 25 4.75 5.44 19.6% 11.3% 49.0% 30.9% 19.2%
2017 8 4.67 6.71 19.6% 10.2% 46.0% 34.3% 16.9%

Jimenez will come out of the bullpen to make a spot start against the Rays. When he is on the mound, it’s good news for the opposing offense. In eight starts this season (and a few relief appearances), he has a 4.67 SIERA with a walk rate of 10% and a hard contact rate of 34%. He also struggles to hold runners, which makes him a perfect pitcher to stack against.

Quick Breakdown: Jimenez should be avoided in all formats tonight against the Rays.

Chris Archer
Article Image FanDuel DraftKings FantasyDraft
Salary: $10,400 Salary: $12,500 Salary: $24,400
Salary Rank: 2 of 30 Salary Rank: 1 of 30 Salary Rank: 1 of 30
Stats Starts SIERA ERA K% BB% GB% HC% SC%
2016 33 3.50 4.02 27.4% 7.9% 47.8% 32.8% 18.0%
2017 15 3.38 3.75 30.1% 7.6% 42.7% 38.4% 16.0%

Archer slightly edges out Stephen Strasburg as my top pitching option on the board tonight. He has been terrific at home throughout his career and he gets to face a right-handed heavy lineup of the Orioles. In 15 starts this season, Archer owns a 3.38 SIERA with an elite strikeout rate of 30%. He has allowed a lot of hard contact, but that’s something we can deal with when a pitcher has double-digit strikeout type of upside. Baltimore has a talented lineup, but they have struggled against right-handed pitching this season, ranking 21st in team wOBA and 20th in strikeout rate.

Quick Breakdown: Archer is the top play in tonight’s slate, but we do have to pay a pretty penny for him.

Batter Grind Down

Baltimore

The Orioles are truly in a tough spot tonight against Chris Archer. His one weakness has been against left-handed power hitters and the Orioles don’t have any to speak of outside of Seth Smith. In the last two seasons, Archer has a .295 xwOBA against right-handed hitters with a 28% strikeout rate. Fading the Orioles is one of the easiest decisions we have to make in a 15 game slate.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

# Player Bats wOBA xwOBA ISO HC% BB% K% GB% FD Pos. FD Sal. DK Pos. DK Sal. FDRFT Pos. FDRFT Sal.
1 Seth Smith LEFT 0.337 0.368 0.173 33.2% 11.0% 21.2% 45.9% OF $3,000 OF $3,400 LF $6,600
2 Manny Machado RIGHT 0.340 0.354 0.237 35.4% 6.7% 19.4% 37.7% 3B $3,500 3B $4,300 3B $8,400
3 Adam Jones RIGHT 0.337 0.339 0.195 32.2% 5.3% 16.2% 43.5% OF $3,200 OF $3,800 CF $7,500
4 Mark Trumbo RIGHT 0.371 0.377 0.259 36.9% 8.6% 23.4% 39.5% OF $3,500 OF $3,800 IF/OF $7,500
5 Trey Mancini RIGHT 0.411 0.376 0.272 36.5% 7.8% 26.7% 48.6% 1B $3,400 1B/OF $4,000 1B $7,600
6 Jonathan Schoop RIGHT 0.340 0.312 0.203 29.2% 3.4% 19.9% 42.3% 2B $3,500 2B $4,300 2B $8,400
7 Welington Castillo RIGHT 0.307 0.297 0.142 33.2% 6.2% 26.6% 41.2% C $2,900 C $3,100 C $6,000
8 Hyun-Soo Kim LEFT 0.353 0.347 0.115 28.8% 9.2% 14.4% 51.0% OF $2,000 OF $2,600 IF/OF $5,200
9 Ruben Tejada RIGHT 0.152 0.241 0.042 15.8% 5.7% 20.8% 41.7% SS $2,000 3B/SS $2,700 SS $5,200

Elite Plays – None

Secondary Plays – None

Stackability – RED

Tampa Bay

The Rays are on my short list of favorite stacks tonight. Ubaldo Jimenez is the perfect candidate to stack against. He struggles with hitters from both sides of the plate, he doesn’t induce a high ground ball rate, he walks a lot of batters, he gives up a lot of hard contact, and he is easy to steal bases on. The only knock on the Rays tonight is the ballpark. Even with this game being played at Tropicana Field, the Rays still have an implied run total above five. The one through seven batters are all viable in tournaments and we can look to the one through four hitters in cash games.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

# Player Bats wOBA xwOBA ISO HC% BB% K% GB% FD Pos. FD Sal. DK Pos. DK Sal. FDRFT Pos. FDRFT Sal.
1 Mallex Smith LEFT 0.362 0.272 0.148 22.2% 10.1% 19.8% 61.1% OF $2,900 OF $3,600 CF $7,200
2 Corey Dickerson LEFT 0.354 0.322 0.271 32.8% 6.2% 21.8% 34.6% OF $4,100 OF $4,700 LF $9,200
3 Evan Longoria RIGHT 0.351 0.349 0.234 35.2% 6.1% 19.7% 35.8% 3B $3,300 3B $3,500 3B $6,800
4 Logan Morrison LEFT 0.345 0.368 0.245 39.6% 11.0% 22.9% 39.7% 1B $3,600 1B $4,700 1B $9,300
5 Steve Souza RIGHT 0.348 0.329 0.205 32.3% 10.3% 30.8% 40.7% OF $3,900 OF $4,400 RF $8,700
6 Colby Rasmus LEFT 0.322 0.323 0.199 38.2% 9.3% 29.6% 35.7% OF $3,100 OF $3,700 LF $7,200
7 Tim Beckham RIGHT 0.324 0.302 0.200 43.9% 4.4% 31.8% 43.8% SS $3,000 SS $3,500 SS $6,800
8 Daniel Robertson RIGHT 0.289 0.276 0.118 29.9% 9.5% 25.7% 52.3% 2B $2,600 2B/3B $3,200 LF $5,400
9 Derek Norris RIGHT 0.238 0.265 0.131 31.2% 6.7% 31.7% 33.7% C $2,400 C $2,600 C $5,200

Elite Plays – Mallex Smith, Corey Dickerson, Evan Longoria, Logan Morrison

Secondary Plays – Steve Souza, Colby Rasmus, Tim Beckham

Stackability – GREEN

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About the Author

Notorious
Derek Farnsworth (Notorious)

Derek Farnsworth (aka Notorious) is a lead RotoGrinders Expert and one of the most recognizable names and faces in all of DFS. Before joining the RotoGrinders team, Derek received a Master’s Degree from the University of Utah. When he’s not busy providing content, he’s dominating the DFS industry as evidenced by his consistent top rankings in several sports and multiple Live Final appearances. Noto provides expert NBA, NFL, MLB, and PGA analysis for RotoGrinders Premium members on a daily basis and has also been nominated for five different Fantasy Sports Writer’s Association (FSWA) awards. Follow Noto on Twitter – @RG_Notorious