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MLB Grind Down: Friday, June 8th

by Derek Farnsworth (Notorious) Last Updated 2018-06-08 19:15:12

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The RotoGrinders MLB Grind Down will give you an in-depth analysis into the upcoming MLB schedule. This article will break down the numbers for every single game and give you analysis on which trends you can exploit. While matchups are a major factor in daily fantasy baseball, there are plenty of other factors to consider such as injuries, weather, and salaries.

The analysis should point you in the right direction, but it is still up to you to decipher the information and make your own selections. No sport has more variance than baseball. The best choice is not always the right choice but following the trends will win you money over time.

Note: As always, if you want to try a new DFS site, be sure to click through a RotoGrinders link and use our DraftKings promo code, FanDuel promo code, and FantasyDraft promo code to receive the best perks in the industry.

Stackability Rating System:

GREEN – A viable full stack in cash games and GPPs.
YELLOW – A viable mini-stack in cash games and full stack in GPPs.
ORANGE – A viable stack in large field GPPs.
RED – Not a recommended stack for cash games or GPPs.

Note: There will not be a Grind Down video today. I will be traveling to the lands of Nashville.

Implied Run Totals

Ballpark Ratings

Pittsburgh at Chicago Cubs – 2:20 PM ET

Pittsburgh Chicago Cubs
pittsburghmlb Chad Kuhl cubsmlb Mike Montgomery
RIGHT LEFT
Vegas Moneyline Vegas Over/Under
CHC-170
Stats wOBA xwOBA HC% BB% K% GB% Stats wOBA xwOBA HC% BB% K% GB%
SP vs. Left (2016-17) 0.366 0.410 41.9% 10.5% 22.4% 30.0% SP vs. Left (2016-17) 0.286 0.272 22.2% 6.0% 20.0% 82.9%
SP vs. Right (2016-17) 0.304 0.343 32.4% 7.0% 21.7% 40.4% SP vs. Right (2016-17) 0.262 0.287 26.6% 7.9% 13.9% 54.5%

Pitcher Grind Down

Chad Kuhl
chad-kuhl-300x200 FanDuel DraftKings FantasyDraft
Salary: Salary: $12,900 Salary: $14,900
Salary Rank: of 28 Salary Rank: 2 of 28 Salary Rank: 8 of 28
Stats Starts SIERA ERA K% BB% GB% HC% SC%
2017 31 4.79 4.35 20.9% 10.6% 41.9% 36.1% 17.2%
2018 12 4.25 3.86 22.0% 8.7% 35.4% 36.9% 15.4%
L14 2 5.05 2.25 20.0% 12.0% 29.0% 39.4% 15.2%

We have a single early game on the schedule today. I’ve included the salaries for the showdown slate sinces there are likely more people playing those than the all-day slates. Kuhl doesn’t have a lot to offer when it comes to DFS. He has a 4.25 SIERA with a hard contact rate (37%) that is higher than his ground ball rate. He’s an easy fade against the Cubs, whose projected lineup has a .343 xwOBA and a 21% strikeout rate against right-handed pitching.

Quick Breakdown: Avoid Kuhl in both the showdown and all-day slates.

Mike Montgomery
mike-montgomery-300x200 FanDuel DraftKings FantasyDraft
Salary: Salary: $14,800 Salary: $8,000
Salary Rank: of 28 Salary Rank: 1 of 28 Salary Rank: 19 of 28
Stats Starts SIERA ERA K% BB% GB% HC% SC%
2017 14 4.46 3.38 18.5% 10.2% 57.8% 30.2% 20.7%
2018 2 3.88 3.89 15.9% 7.3% 63.4% 25.2% 29.6%
L14 2 3.02 0.77 22.0% 2.4% 64.5% 29.0% 19.4%

Montgomery has yet to throw more than 76 pitches this season, but that’s enough to last five innings and potentially be in line for the win. Throughout his career, he has had a high ground ball rate and an ability to limit hard contact. While he doesn’t have enough strikeout upside to warrant consideration in the all-day slate, he’s the preferred pitching target in the showdown slate. I like to pair my starter in these slates with the closer, which puts Brandon Morrow in play on DraftKings ($2,800).

Quick Breakdown: Montgomery and Morrow are both viable in the showdown slates.

Batter Grind Down

Pittsburgh

At the time of writing this, the over/under has yet to be set. However, the wind looks like it will be blowing in from left-center at close to ten MPH. This gives a significant bump to the pitchers. The Pirates do have a good lineup of right-handed hitters, but are facing a ground ball pitcher in bad hitting conditions. For the showdown slate, Josh Harrison, Starling Marte, and Francisco Cervelli are all viable. For the all-day slate, avoid the Pirates in all formats.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. LH Pitching)

# Player Bats xwOBA L15 ISO HC% BB% K% GB% FD Pos. FD Sal. DK Pos. DK Sal. FDRFT Pos. FDRFT Sal.
1 Josh Harrison RIGHT 0.367 0.336 0.182 40.0% 0.0% 8.7% 15.0% 2B $6,000 2B $7,400 N/A N/A
2 Austin Meadows LEFT 0.456 0.367 0.667 35.7% 16.7% 5.6% 57.1% OF $7,500 OF $9,100 N/A N/A
3 Starling Marte RIGHT 0.411 0.306 0.333 33.3% 9.3% 27.9% 48.1% OF $7,000 OF $8,900 N/A N/A
4 Josh Bell SWITCH 0.291 0.268 0.143 22.5% 10.5% 19.3% 40.0% 1B $5,500 1B $6,000 N/A N/A
5 Francisco Cervelli RIGHT 0.392 0.316 0.231 27.8% 18.8% 25.0% 22.2% C $6,500 C $7,700 N/A N/A
6 Corey Dickerson LEFT 0.288 0.290 0.136 21.1% 4.3% 12.8% 42.1% OF $8,000 OF $8,600 N/A N/A
7 David Freese RIGHT 0.375 0.378 0.027 30.0% 9.3% 20.9% 53.3% 3B $4,000 1B/3B $5,000 N/A N/A
8 Jordy Mercer RIGHT 0.383 0.323 0.075 35.1% 8.7% 8.7% 27.0% SS $4,000 SS $4,500 N/A N/A
9 Chad Kuhl RIGHT 0.112 0.095 0.000 14.3% 0.0% 22.2% 75.0% P $12,900 N/A N/A
Team Averages 0.342 0.298 0.199 28.9% 8.6% 16.8% 42.2%

Elite Plays – None

Secondary Plays – Josh Harrison, Starling Marte, Francisco Cervelli

Stackability – ORANGE

Chicago Cubs

Even with the wind blowing in, a matchup against Chad Kuhl is still an exploitable one. On the season, he has allowed a .410 xwOBA to lefties and a .343 xwOBA to righties. For the showdown slate, my plan is to load up on Chicago, both on their pitchers and their hitters. Ben Zobrist, Jason Heyward, Kris Bryant, Anthony Rizzo, and Kyle Schwarber all have at least a .365 xwOBA against right-handed pitching this season.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

# Player Bats xwOBA L15 ISO HC% BB% K% GB% FD Pos. FD Sal. DK Pos. DK Sal. FDRFT Pos. FDRFT Sal.
1 Ben Zobrist SWITCH 0.365 0.344 0.173 32.6% 14.7% 11.6% 44.2% 2B $7,000 2B/OF $8,000 N/A N/A
2 Jason Heyward LEFT 0.377 0.353 0.147 32.7% 9.1% 8.3% 37.4% OF $5,500 OF $5,300 N/A N/A
3 Kris Bryant RIGHT 0.374 0.268 0.146 32.8% 12.6% 18.6% 36.7% 3B $9,500 3B $10,100 N/A N/A
4 Anthony Rizzo LEFT 0.400 0.475 0.199 34.6% 11.5% 8.6% 33.8% 1B $9,000 1B $9,800 N/A N/A
5 Willson Contreras RIGHT 0.335 0.315 0.187 29.3% 8.1% 16.8% 47.5% C $7,500 C $7,100 N/A N/A
6 Kyle Schwarber LEFT 0.378 0.414 0.297 40.0% 16.7% 23.8% 46.9% OF $8,500 OF $8,300 N/A N/A
7 Javier Baez RIGHT 0.350 0.254 0.299 35.8% 2.3% 26.7% 41.7% SS $8,500 2B/SS $9,500 N/A N/A
8 Albert Almora RIGHT 0.265 0.327 0.083 31.2% 6.9% 21.5% 48.9% OF $6,500 OF $6,200 N/A N/A
9 Mike Montgomery LEFT 0.242 0.404 0.000 33.3% 0.0% 50.0% 50.0% P $14,800 N/A N/A
Team Averages 0.343 0.350 0.170 33.6% 9.1% 20.7% 43.0%

Elite Plays – Ben Zobrist, Kris Bryant, Anthony Rizzo

Secondary Plays – Jason Heyward, Willson Contreras, Kyle Schwarber

Stackability – YELLOW / GREEN

Milwaukee at Philadelphia – 7:05 PM ET

Milwaukee Philadelphia
milwaukeemlb Jhoulys Chacin philadelphiamlb Vince Velasquez
RIGHT RIGHT
Vegas Moneyline Vegas Over/Under
PHI-130 8.0
Stats wOBA xwOBA HC% BB% K% GB% Stats wOBA xwOBA HC% BB% K% GB%
SP vs. Left (2016-17) 0.345 0.373 40.2% 12.5% 11.1% 44.2% SP vs. Left (2016-17) 0.383 0.313 30.9% 7.6% 27.1% 35.5%
SP vs. Right (2016-17) 0.243 0.287 40.2% 7.5% 23.1% 37.4% SP vs. Right (2016-17) 0.236 0.240 28.0% 8.7% 31.5% 42.3%

Pitcher Grind Down

Jhoulys Chacin
jhoulys-chacin-300x200 FanDuel DraftKings FantasyDraft
Salary: $7,500 Salary: $6,200 Salary: $12,100
Salary Rank: 18 of 28 Salary Rank: 20 of 28 Salary Rank: 18 of 28
Stats Starts SIERA ERA K% BB% GB% HC% SC%
2017 32 4.63 3.89 20.0% 9.4% 49.1% 28.5% 20.2%
2018 13 4.95 3.39 17.2% 10.0% 40.9% 40.2% 18.2%
L14 2 4.51 3.75 16.7% 4.2% 32.4% 46.0% 13.5%

Chacin has a low ERA (3.39) this season, but is due for some regression. In 13 starts, he has a 4.95 SIERA with a strikeout rate of 17%. His hard contact rate (40%) matches his ground ball rate, which is never a good sign. The Phillies do strikeout at a high rate against right-handed pitching, but also have plenty of left-handed hitters to throw at Chacin.

Quick Breakdown: In a slate this size, Chacin is an easy fade in all formats.

Vince Velasquez
vincent-velasquez-300x200 FanDuel DraftKings FantasyDraft
Salary: $8,800 Salary: $8,300 Salary: $16,100
Salary Rank: 8 of 28 Salary Rank: 12 of 28 Salary Rank: 10 of 28
Stats Starts SIERA ERA K% BB% GB% HC% SC%
2017 15 4.73 5.13 21.6% 10.8% 42.5% 38.1% 15.2%
2018 12 3.37 3.82 29.2% 8.1% 38.4% 29.6% 16.6%
L14 2 2.73 2.25 32.6% 6.5% 51.9% 32.1% 17.9%

Velasquez is having a breakout season for the Phillies, posting a 3.37 SIERA with a strikeout rate of 29%. He typically flies under the radar in DFS, especially in these large slates. Dollar for dollar, he’s one of my top targets on the board. The Brewers’ projected lineup has a .310 xwOBA and a 25% strikeout rate against right-handed pitching this season.

Quick Breakdown: Velasquez is an elite SP1 in tournaments and an elite SP2 in all formats.

Batter Grind Down

Milwaukee

Citizens Bank Park is one of the most home run-friendly ballparks in baseball, but the Brewers draw a difficult matchup against Vince Velasquez. In addition to having an elite strikeout rate, he has held both left and right-handed hitters under a .315 xwOBA and under a 31% hard contact rate this season. Outside of a Travis Shaw one-off, the Brewers aren’t very appealing.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

# Player Bats xwOBA L15 ISO HC% BB% K% GB% FD Pos. FD Sal. DK Pos. DK Sal. FDRFT Pos. FDRFT Sal.
1 Lorenzo Cain RIGHT 0.332 0.316 0.120 37.8% 14.6% 20.7% 56.7% OF $3,400 OF $4,200 CF $8,500
2 Christian Yelich LEFT 0.413 0.447 0.194 46.3% 10.3% 19.9% 47.2% OF $4,100 OF $4,900 CF $9,300
3 Jesus Aguilar RIGHT 0.398 0.342 0.215 44.9% 8.7% 26.1% 28.1% 1B $3,300 1B $4,100 1B $8,400
4 Travis Shaw LEFT 0.431 0.348 0.331 40.3% 13.0% 16.8% 32.6% 3B $3,600 3B $4,500 3B $8,900
5 Ryan Braun RIGHT 0.293 0.369 0.139 30.5% 5.6% 28.2% 47.6% OF $2,500 1B/OF $4,200 LF $8,500
6 Jonathan Villar SWITCH 0.266 0.322 0.102 36.6% 5.4% 30.6% 64.8% 2B $2,600 2B $3,500 2B $6,500
7 Manny Pina RIGHT 0.296 0.322 0.127 36.3% 5.1% 16.9% 40.7% C $2,000 C $2,800 C $5,700
8 Orlando Arcia RIGHT 0.225 0.171 0.083 24.7% 4.8% 24.6% 59.6% SS $2,000 SS $2,700 SS $5,900
9 Jhoulys Chacin RIGHT 0.135 0.190 0.000 16.7% 0.0% 36.8% 66.7% P $7,500 P $6,200 P $12,100
Team Averages 0.310 0.314 0.146 34.9% 7.5% 24.5% 49.3%

Elite Plays – None

Secondary Plays – Travis Shaw

Stackability – ORANGE

Philadelphia

The Phillies have one of the easiest matchups to break down tonight. Throughout his career, Jhoulys Chacin has been crushed by lefties and has been dominant against righties. This season is no different, as he has allowed a .373 xwOBA to left-handed hitters, while holding right-handed hitters to a .287 xwOBA. Cesar Hernandez, Odubel Herrera, and Carlos Santana are all viable targets.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

# Player Bats xwOBA L15 ISO HC% BB% K% GB% FD Pos. FD Sal. DK Pos. DK Sal. FDRFT Pos. FDRFT Sal.
1 Cesar Hernandez SWITCH 0.333 0.303 0.171 26.5% 14.1% 22.9% 43.6% 2B $3,300 2B $4,300 2B $7,100
2 Odubel Herrera LEFT 0.329 0.219 0.159 27.3% 8.9% 18.5% 43.7% OF $2,600 OF $3,900 IF/OF $7,500
3 Scott Kingery RIGHT 0.305 0.274 0.107 27.7% 5.6% 21.8% 38.4% SS $2,300 3B/SS $2,900 SS $5,400
4 Carlos Santana SWITCH 0.389 0.302 0.232 33.9% 17.6% 13.6% 38.3% 1B $3,500 1B $3,700 1B $7,500
5 Aaron Altherr RIGHT 0.318 0.313 0.150 36.4% 12.8% 33.6% 48.5% OF $2,500 OF $2,900 LF $5,500
6 Maikel Franco RIGHT 0.304 0.284 0.150 23.9% 4.3% 17.9% 53.2% 3B $2,600 3B $3,500 3B $6,400
7 Jorge Alfaro RIGHT 0.291 0.298 0.150 32.3% 3.5% 39.5% 53.2% C $2,400 C $2,900 C $5,600
8 J.P. Crawford LEFT 0.264 0.000 0.150 23.8% 3.1% 29.2% 42.5% SS $2,000 SS $2,900 SS $5,500
9 Vince Velasquez RIGHT 0.108 0.026 0.000 11.1% 0.0% 35.7% 100.0% P $8,800 P $8,300 P $16,100
Team Averages 0.293 0.224 0.141 27.0% 7.8% 25.9% 51.3%

Elite Plays – Cesar Hernandez, Carlos Santana

Secondary Plays – Odubel Herrera

Stackability – ORANGE / YELLOW

San Francisco at Washington – 7:05 PM ET

San Francisco Washington
sanfranciscomlb Andrew Suarez washingtonmlb Stephen Strasburg
LEFT RIGHT
Vegas Moneyline Vegas Over/Under
WAS-220 7.5
Stats wOBA xwOBA HC% BB% K% GB% Stats wOBA xwOBA HC% BB% K% GB%
SP vs. Left (2016-17) 0.205 0.234 27.8% 2.0% 27.5% 58.8% SP vs. Left (2016-17) 0.273 0.307 27.4% 6.9% 24.3% 49.6%
SP vs. Right (2016-17) 0.383 0.398 45.7% 5.5% 21.9% 45.6% SP vs. Right (2016-17) 0.293 0.337 39.3% 4.9% 35.4% 38.6%

Pitcher Grind Down

Andrew Suarez
andrew-suarez-300x200 FanDuel DraftKings FantasyDraft
Salary: $6,900 Salary: $6,500 Salary: $12,800
Salary Rank: 22 of 28 Salary Rank: 19 of 28 Salary Rank: 17 of 28
Stats Starts SIERA ERA K% BB% GB% HC% SC%
2018 8 3.39 4.74 23.5% 4.5% 49.2% 40.6% 17.2%
L14 2 2.27 2.25 25.5% 2.1% 68.8% 30.3% 24.2%

Suarez has pitched well this season, posting a 3.39 SIERA with a strikeout rate of 24% and a walk rate of 5%. If you randomly polled a bunch of casual baseball fans, very few would know that these numbers belong to Suarez and not Madison Bumgarner. The issue tonight is his matchup against the Nationals. They hit left-handed pitching well as a whole and will have their ace on the mound, which should limit run support for Suarez.

Quick Breakdown: Avoid Suarez in all formats .

Stephen Strasburg
stephen-strasburg-300x200 FanDuel DraftKings FantasyDraft
Salary: $10,400 Salary: $10,800 Salary: $21,400
Salary Rank: 4 of 28 Salary Rank: 6 of 28 Salary Rank: 3 of 28
Stats Starts SIERA ERA K% BB% GB% HC% SC%
2017 28 3.37 2.52 29.1% 6.7% 46.8% 27.3% 21.4%
2018 12 3.02 3.20 29.3% 6.0% 45.0% 32.3% 19.4%
L14 2 2.07 2.31 37.5% 4.2% 44.4% 40.7% 11.1%

Strasburg is elite in every sense of the word. For whatever reason, there is an unfair narrative that he hasn’t lived up to expectations, but I don’t understand it. Year after year, he’s one of the best pitchers in baseball. In his 12 starts this season, he has a 3.02 SIERA with a strikeout rate of 29%. He draws a favorable matchup against the Giants, whose projected lineup has a .319 xwOBA and a 25% strikeout rate against right-handed pitching.

Quick Breakdown: Strasburg is an elite play in all formats.

Batter Grind Down

San Francisco

The Giants are playing on the road in a pitcher-friendly ballpark and have one of the worst matchups of the slate. In addition to an elite strikeout rate, he has been tough on both left and right-handed hitters throughout his career. We don’t need to take unnecessary risks in a 14-game slate, which is exactly what the Giants’ offense is in this matchup.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

# Player Bats xwOBA L15 ISO HC% BB% K% GB% FD Pos. FD Sal. DK Pos. DK Sal. FDRFT Pos. FDRFT Sal.
1 Joe Panik LEFT 0.412 0.397 0.095 33.9% 9.5% 6.8% 47.5% 2B $3,100 2B $3,100 2B $5,500
2 Buster Posey RIGHT 0.356 0.331 0.097 35.6% 6.6% 15.4% 47.1% C $3,100 C $3,600 C $7,700
3 Andrew McCutchen RIGHT 0.358 0.318 0.161 47.7% 13.6% 22.5% 31.8% OF $3,600 OF $3,600 RF $7,400
4 Brandon Crawford LEFT 0.355 0.399 0.140 39.5% 6.0% 19.5% 40.2% SS $3,600 SS $3,600 SS $7,600
5 Evan Longoria RIGHT 0.308 0.308 0.154 43.5% 3.1% 25.3% 40.0% 3B $2,500 3B $3,400 3B $6,600
6 Pablo Sandoval SWITCH 0.343 0.349 0.198 47.4% 5.7% 28.7% 54.4% 3B $2,400 1B/3B $2,900 3B $5,800
7 Mac Williamson RIGHT 0.319 0.280 0.186 32.3% 4.4% 26.7% 58.1% OF $2,900 OF $3,300 RF $6,400
8 Gorkys Hernandez RIGHT 0.313 0.275 0.176 34.5% 5.5% 30.8% 47.3% OF $2,600 OF $3,200 CF $6,400
9 Andrew Suarez LEFT 0.105 0.050 0.000 0.0% 9.1% 45.5% 100.0% P $6,900 P $6,500 P $12,800
Team Averages 0.319 0.301 0.134 34.9% 7.1% 24.6% 51.8%

Elite Plays – None

Secondary Plays – None

Stackability – RED

Washington

Even though Andrew Suarez has pitched well this season, he’s still a favorable matchup for right-handed hitters. On the season, he has allowed a .398 xwOBA and a 46% hard contact rate to righties. Trea Turner, Anthony Rendon, and Mark Reynolds are all borderline elite plays, as they all bat from the right side and all boast a .365+ xwOBA against southpaws.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. LH Pitching)

# Player Bats xwOBA L15 ISO HC% BB% K% GB% FD Pos. FD Sal. DK Pos. DK Sal. FDRFT Pos. FDRFT Sal.
1 Trea Turner RIGHT 0.373 0.326 0.119 35.1% 13.0% 13.0% 47.3% SS $4,000 SS $4,400 IF/OF $8,200
2 Bryce Harper LEFT 0.377 0.292 0.194 38.5% 15.7% 24.7% 46.2% OF $4,700 OF $5,400 RF $10,700
3 Anthony Rendon RIGHT 0.482 0.389 0.222 47.2% 13.2% 18.9% 16.7% 3B $3,600 3B $3,900 3B $7,600
4 Mark Reynolds RIGHT 0.367 0.301 0.167 30.0% 7.7% 15.4% 50.0% 1B $3,200 1B $3,900 1B $7,700
5 Juan Soto LEFT 0.406 0.355 0.400 47.4% 16.7% 4.2% 63.2% OF $3,800 OF $4,200 LF $8,000
6 Michael Taylor RIGHT 0.272 0.365 0.215 41.5% 4.3% 36.2% 55.0% OF $3,300 OF $3,800 CF $7,500
7 Pedro Severino RIGHT 0.299 0.165 0.061 26.9% 10.3% 20.5% 32.0% C $2,000 C $2,700 C $5,900
8 Stephen Strasburg RIGHT 0.138 0.168 0.000 0.0% 14.3% 42.9% 100.0% P $10,400 P $10,800 P $21,400
9 Wilmer Difo SWITCH 0.252 0.284 0.115 26.8% 5.5% 20.0% 42.5% 2B $2,500 2B/3B $3,100 2B $5,500
Team Averages 0.330 0.294 0.166 32.6% 11.2% 21.8% 50.3%

Elite Plays – Trea Turner, Anthony Rendon

Secondary Plays – Mark Reynolds, Bryce Harper (GPP), Juan Soto (GPP)

Stackability – YELLOW

Baltimore at Toronto – 7:07 PM ET

Baltimore Toronto
baltimoremlb Andrew Cashner torontomlb J.A. Happ
RIGHT LEFT
Vegas Moneyline Vegas Over/Under
TOR-190 9.0
Stats wOBA xwOBA HC% BB% K% GB% Stats wOBA xwOBA HC% BB% K% GB%
SP vs. Left (2016-17) 0.382 0.371 30.6% 10.6% 24.5% 33.0% SP vs. Left (2016-17) 0.187 0.248 21.1% 3.3% 33.3% 57.9%
SP vs. Right (2016-17) 0.382 0.415 34.8% 10.7% 14.0% 42.7% SP vs. Right (2016-17) 0.318 0.321 33.3% 7.8% 29.1% 44.0%

Pitcher Grind Down

Andrew Cashner
andrew-cashner-300x200 FanDuel DraftKings FantasyDraft
Salary: $5,900 Salary: $4,600 Salary: $9,100
Salary Rank: 26 of 28 Salary Rank: 27 of 28 Salary Rank: 25 of 28
Stats Starts SIERA ERA K% BB% GB% HC% SC%
2017 28 5.52 3.40 12.2% 9.1% 48.6% 28.4% 18.5%
2018 12 4.80 5.02 19.3% 10.6% 38.2% 32.9% 15.7%
L14 2 5.08 6.55 14.8% 9.3% 39.0% 26.8% 12.2%

Cashner has struggled this season, even more so than he did in 2017. In 12 starts, he has a 4.80 SIERA with a strikeout rate of 19% and a walk rate of 10%. He has a low ground ball rate and he doesn’t induce much soft contact. When you combine all of that, it’s hard to succeed as a pitcher. He comes into tonight’s game as a large underdog against the Blue Jays, who have plenty of firepower against right-handed pitching.

Quick Breakdown: Avoid Cashner in all formats.

J.A. Happ
j-a-happ-300x200 FanDuel DraftKings FantasyDraft
Salary: $9,400 Salary: $10,400 Salary: $20,600
Salary Rank: 6 of 28 Salary Rank: 8 of 28 Salary Rank: 5 of 28
Stats Starts SIERA ERA K% BB% GB% HC% SC%
2017 25 4.11 3.53 22.7% 7.4% 46.9% 26.7% 20.3%
2018 12 3.09 4.08 30.0% 6.9% 46.9% 30.7% 22.4%
L14 2 3.07 4.63 32.0% 8.0% 36.7% 30.0% 33.3%

Happ looks like a wrestler coming out for a match in his picture above, but has fared well doubling as a major league pitcher this season. He owns a 3.09 SIERA with a strikeout rate of 30%. He has a slightly above-average ground ball rate and has quietly done a nice job of limiting hard contact. The Orioles aren’t an offense that scares me, especially when they are playing on the road. They have a right-handed heavy lineup, but there are a few high-strikeout bats that Happ should be able to take advantage of. At his price point, he should fly under the radar.

Quick Breakdown: Happ is an elite tournament play.

Batter Grind Down

Baltimore

The Orioles aren’t an auto-fade tonight, even though my blurb on J.A. Happ would lead you to believe that. I’ll likely have more exposure to Happ than this Orioles’ offense, but there are two right-handed hitters in particular that I have my eye on. Manny Machado and Danny Valencia both have gargantuan xwOBAs against southpaws this season (.428 and .415).

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. LH Pitching)

# Player Bats xwOBA L15 ISO HC% BB% K% GB% FD Pos. FD Sal. DK Pos. DK Sal. FDRFT Pos. FDRFT Sal.
1 Trey Mancini RIGHT 0.330 0.262 0.164 32.1% 8.6% 21.0% 67.9% OF $2,500 1B/OF $3,200 IF/OF $6,500
2 Adam Jones RIGHT 0.345 0.366 0.074 31.2% 2.8% 11.3% 37.7% OF $3,400 OF $3,500 CF $6,300
3 Manny Machado RIGHT 0.428 0.280 0.323 40.7% 10.0% 5.7% 33.9% SS $4,400 SS $5,000 3B $10,300
4 Danny Valencia RIGHT 0.415 0.299 0.207 32.0% 10.6% 13.6% 44.0% 3B $2,500 3B $3,200 3B $6,700
5 Mark Trumbo RIGHT 0.289 0.365 0.129 35.0% 3.1% 34.4% 55.0% OF $2,300 OF $3,500 DH $6,600
6 Jonathan Schoop RIGHT 0.288 0.187 0.065 26.3% 6.0% 16.0% 39.5% 2B $2,900 2B $3,300 2B $6,500
7 Chris Davis LEFT 0.321 0.225 0.208 44.8% 10.7% 35.7% 37.9% 1B $2,100 1B $2,800 IF/OF $5,500
8 Joey Rickard RIGHT 0.249 0.251 0.100 25.0% 6.3% 31.3% 35.0% OF $2,100 OF $2,900 RF $5,800
9 Austin Wynns RIGHT 0.421 0.280 0.000 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% C $2,000 C $2,400 C $4,600
Team Averages 0.343 0.279 0.141 29.7% 6.5% 18.8% 39.0%

Elite Plays – Manny Machado (GPP), Danny Valencia (GPP)

Secondary Plays – Manny Machado (Cash), Danny Valencia (Cash), Trey Mancini

Stackability – ORANGE

Toronto

The Blue Jays have a long track record of letting DFS players down in good matchups. There was one point a year or two ago when we hated seeing Toronto in a good spot at home. We can’t have biases in DFS though, and they draw one of the best matchups of the slate. In addition to a high walk rate and a low ground ball rate, Andrew Cashner has allowed a .371 xwOBA to lefties and a .415 xwOBA to righties this season. I hate to say it, but a full Blue Jays’ stack is viable in tournaments.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

# Player Bats xwOBA L15 ISO HC% BB% K% GB% FD Pos. FD Sal. DK Pos. DK Sal. FDRFT Pos. FDRFT Sal.
1 Curtis Granderson LEFT 0.351 0.271 0.168 40.5% 15.9% 30.5% 34.2% OF $2,500 OF $3,500 CF $6,700
2 Yangervis Solarte SWITCH 0.343 0.261 0.182 30.8% 8.2% 17.1% 41.0% 3B $3,100 2B/3B $3,800 2B $7,700
3 Justin Smoak SWITCH 0.404 0.389 0.250 36.5% 18.2% 26.0% 31.8% 1B $3,400 1B $4,300 1B $8,200
4 Kendrys Morales SWITCH 0.383 0.503 0.134 44.6% 8.5% 21.7% 45.9% 1B $2,300 1B $3,300 1B $6,300
5 Kevin Pillar RIGHT 0.357 0.295 0.162 37.6% 6.0% 18.6% 40.0% OF $2,800 OF $3,400 CF $6,800
6 Russell Martin RIGHT 0.317 0.301 0.171 34.3% 13.6% 25.6% 50.7% C $2,100 C $2,700 C $5,600
7 Randal Grichuk RIGHT 0.326 0.268 0.227 37.9% 8.0% 32.0% 48.3% OF $2,100 OF $2,800 LF $5,400
8 Devon Travis RIGHT 0.254 0.295 0.067 18.9% 4.9% 26.8% 66.0% 2B $2,000 2B $2,800 2B $5,700
9 Aledmys Diaz RIGHT 0.364 0.318 0.271 39.7% 4.4% 13.3% 43.8% SS $2,100 SS $3,200 SS $6,400
Team Averages 0.344 0.322 0.181 35.6% 9.7% 23.5% 44.6%

Elite Plays – Curtis Granderson, Justin Smoak

Secondary Plays – Yangervis Solarte, Kendrys Morales, Kevin Pillar or Teoscar Hernandez

Stackability – YELLOW / GREEN

Chicago White Sox at Boston – 7:10 PM ET

Chicago White Sox Boston
whitesoxmlb Dylan Covey bostonmlb Chris Sale
RIGHT LEFT
Vegas Moneyline Vegas Over/Under
BOS-300 8.0
Stats wOBA xwOBA HC% BB% K% GB% Stats wOBA xwOBA HC% BB% K% GB%
SP vs. Left (2016-17) 0.312 0.326 48.3% 17.0% 21.3% 58.6% SP vs. Left (2016-17) 0.271 0.261 25.9% 4.3% 34.0% 44.0%
SP vs. Right (2016-17) 0.244 0.273 33.3% 3.9% 21.2% 66.7% SP vs. Right (2016-17) 0.268 0.277 26.3% 6.9% 33.9% 38.4%

Pitcher Grind Down

Dylan Covey
dylan-covey-300x200 FanDuel DraftKings FantasyDraft
Salary: $6,400 Salary: $4,200 Salary: $8,600
Salary Rank: 23 of 28 Salary Rank: 28 of 28 Salary Rank: 26 of 28
Stats Starts SIERA ERA K% BB% GB% HC% SC%
2017 12 5.64 7.71 13.3% 11.0% 48.5% 36.5% 18.0%
2018 4 3.85 2.82 21.2% 10.1% 63.2% 39.7% 20.6%
L14 2 4.11 1.93 23.3% 14.0% 70.4% 40.7% 22.2%

Perhaps we were all wrong about Covey and he’s actually good at this whole baseball thing. In his four starts this season, he has a respectable 3.85 SIERA with a strikeout rate of 21% and a ground ball rate of 63%. While those numbers are encouraging, I’m not buying his stock just yet. We are only a year away from him being our favorite pitcher to stack against.

Quick Breakdown: If Covey pitches well in Fenway tonight, he’ll make me a believer.

Chris Sale
chris-sale-300x200 FanDuel DraftKings FantasyDraft
Salary: $11,500 Salary: $11,100 Salary: $21,100
Salary Rank: 2 of 28 Salary Rank: 5 of 28 Salary Rank: 4 of 28
Stats Starts SIERA ERA K% BB% GB% HC% SC%
2017 32 2.58 2.90 36.2% 5.1% 38.7% 29.7% 18.5%
2018 13 2.70 3.00 34.0% 6.5% 39.1% 26.2% 28.3%
L14 2 3.30 8.71 30.4% 8.7% 33.3% 21.4% 25.0%

Sale is my top pitching option on the board, which is really saying something given how many aces are taking the mound tonight. I love Sale because he is always on the attack. Even when he gives up a few runs, he can make up for it with his ability to rack up strikeouts and pitch deep into games. On the season, he owns a 2.70 SIERA with a strikeout rate of 34%. He doesn’t walk many hitters and he draws an exploitable matchup against the White Sox, whose projected lineup has a .305 xwOBA with a massive 30% strikeout rate against southpaws this season.

Quick Breakdown: Sale is the top play of the slate.

Batter Grind Down

Chicago White Sox

The White Sox are playing in a hitter-friendly ballpark, but have the worst matchup of the slate. When we have large slates, we can not only afford to be picky with our selections, but we should go out of our way to make sure we don’t have any bad plays in our lineups. Could the White Sox hit a couple home runs off of Chris Sale tonight? Sure, this is baseball, but we have to trust the numbers. In addition to an elite strikeout rate, Sale has held both left and right-handed hitters under .270 xwOBA and under a 27% hard contact rate.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. LH Pitching)

# Player Bats xwOBA L15 ISO HC% BB% K% GB% FD Pos. FD Sal. DK Pos. DK Sal. FDRFT Pos. FDRFT Sal.
1 Tim Anderson RIGHT 0.377 0.335 0.259 31.8% 8.5% 16.9% 40.9% SS $3,500 SS $4,000 SS $7,500
2 Yolmer Sanchez SWITCH 0.243 0.374 0.037 22.9% 6.8% 32.2% 65.7% 3B $2,800 3B $3,800 2B $7,300
3 Jose Abreu RIGHT 0.399 0.305 0.275 46.0% 5.4% 25.0% 45.9% 1B $3,800 1B $3,700 1B $7,700
4 Matt Davidson RIGHT 0.404 0.276 0.361 57.1% 17.8% 33.3% 47.6% 3B $3,200 1B/3B $3,500 3B $6,900
5 Adam Engel RIGHT 0.287 0.269 0.100 25.6% 5.6% 22.2% 32.4% OF $2,100 OF $2,800 CF $5,600
6 Yoan Moncada SWITCH 0.236 0.259 0.096 37.5% 10.2% 35.6% 62.5% 2B $3,500 2B $3,700 2B $7,400
7 Trayce Thompson RIGHT 0.247 0.251 0.146 30.4% 6.8% 40.9% 47.8% OF $2,000 OF $2,700 CF $5,400
8 Charlie Tilson LEFT 0.248 0.205 0.000 0.0% 16.7% 33.3% 66.7% OF $2,000 OF $2,800 CF $5,700
9 Kevan Smith RIGHT 0.479 C $2,100 C $2,800 C $5,500
Team Averages 0.305 0.306 0.159 31.4% 9.7% 29.9% 51.2%

Elite Plays – None

Secondary Plays – None

Stackability – RED

Boston

This is the make or break matchup for Dylan Covey, who has pitched well in his first four starts of the season. While he makes for a great story, I will continue to target hitters against him until he truly turns me into a believer (could happen tonight with a dominant performance). I keep going back to his numbers from last season and he comes into this game as a massive underdog. The Red Sox have one of the highest implied run totals of the slate and they are missing two of their best hitters. If you are making three or more tournament lineups tonight, I recommend a Red Sox stack in one of them.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

# Player Bats xwOBA L15 ISO HC% BB% K% GB% FD Pos. FD Sal. DK Pos. DK Sal. FDRFT Pos. FDRFT Sal.
1 Andrew Benintendi LEFT 0.389 0.440 0.258 28.6% 12.5% 13.5% 35.1% OF $4,900 OF $5,600 LF $10,800
2 Xander Bogaerts RIGHT 0.383 0.365 0.271 37.4% 3.9% 19.5% 43.9% SS $4,500 SS $4,500 SS $8,900
3 J.D. Martinez RIGHT 0.487 0.468 0.397 52.2% 9.5% 21.4% 44.9% OF $4,800 OF $5,200 RF $9,900
4 Mitch Moreland LEFT 0.466 0.405 0.342 39.8% 9.4% 17.3% 39.8% 1B $3,500 1B $4,600 1B $9,600
5 Eduardo Nunez RIGHT 0.268 0.258 0.146 27.9% 1.8% 18.4% 48.1% 2B $3,000 2B/SS $3,300 3B $6,700
6 Brock Holt LEFT 0.333 0.311 0.153 23.3% 9.4% 13.5% 50.7% SS $2,700 2B/SS $3,500 2B $6,900
7 Rafael Devers LEFT 0.335 0.258 0.173 40.3% 8.4% 26.7% 44.7% 3B $2,900 3B $3,400 3B $6,700
8 Sandy Leon SWITCH 0.300 0.298 0.158 32.5% 3.3% 26.7% 37.5% C $2,300 C $3,100 C $5,500
9 Jackie Bradley LEFT 0.341 0.374 0.130 35.8% 11.1% 24.2% 44.2% OF $2,500 OF $3,000 CF $5,900
Team Averages 0.367 0.353 0.225 35.3% 7.7% 20.1% 43.2%

Elite Plays – Andrew Benintendi, Xander Bogaerts, J.D. Martinez, Mitch Moreland

Secondary Plays – Eduardo Nunez, Brock Holt, Rafael Devers

Stackability – GREEN

Note: Unless noted, all statistics in the Grind Down are from the 2018 season.

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About the Author

Notorious
Derek Farnsworth (Notorious)

Derek Farnsworth (aka Notorious) is a lead RotoGrinders Expert and one of the most recognizable names and faces in all of DFS. Before joining the RotoGrinders team, Derek received a Master’s Degree from the University of Utah. When he’s not busy providing content, he’s dominating the DFS industry as evidenced by his consistent top rankings in several sports and multiple Live Final appearances. Noto provides expert NBA, NFL, MLB, and PGA analysis for RotoGrinders Premium members on a daily basis and has also been nominated for five different Fantasy Sports Writer’s Association (FSWA) awards. Follow Noto on X – @RG_Notorious