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MLB Grind Down: Friday, May 11th

by Derek Farnsworth (Notorious) Last Updated 2018-05-11 18:43:20

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The RotoGrinders MLB Grind Down will give you an in-depth analysis into the upcoming MLB schedule. This article will break down the numbers for every single game and give you analysis on which trends you can exploit. While matchups are a major factor in daily fantasy baseball, there are plenty of other factors to consider such as injuries, weather, and salaries.

The analysis should point you in the right direction, but it is still up to you to decipher the information and make your own selections. No sport has more variance than baseball. The best choice is not always the right choice but following the trends will win you money over time.

Note: As always, if you want to try a new DFS site, be sure to click through a RotoGrinders link and use our DraftKings promo code, FanDuel promo code, and FantasyDraft promo code to receive the best perks in the industry.

Stackability Rating System:

GREEN – A viable full stack in cash games and GPPs.
YELLOW – A viable mini-stack in cash games and full stack in GPPs.
ORANGE – A viable stack in large field GPPs.
RED – Not a recommended stack for cash games or GPPs.

Implied Run Totals

Ballpark Ratings

Chicago White Sox at Chicago Cubs – 2:20 PM ET

Chicago White Sox Chicago Cubs
whitesoxmlb Carson Fulmer cubsmlb Tyler Chatwood
RIGHT RIGHT
Vegas Moneyline Vegas Over/Under
CHC-230 7.5
Stats wOBA xwOBA HC% BB% K% GB% Stats wOBA xwOBA HC% BB% K% GB%
SP vs. Left (2016-17) 0.329 0.376 27.5% 13.2% 19.0% 30.0% SP vs. Left (2016-17) 0.358 0.347 30.9% 14.8% 19.0% 57.1%
SP vs. Right (2016-17) 0.348 0.401 30.0% 10.5% 17.5% 30.4% SP vs. Right (2016-17) 0.306 0.315 27.4% 12.0% 20.2% 57.3%

Pitcher Grind Down

Carson Fulmer
carson-fulmer-300x200 FanDuel DraftKings FantasyDraft
Salary: $5,600 Salary: $7,100 Salary:
Salary Rank: 26 of 29 Salary Rank: 13 of 29 Salary Rank:
Stats Starts SIERA ERA K% BB% GB% HC% SC%
2017 5 5.59 3.86 18.8% 12.9% 28.8% 20.9% 19.4%
2018 6 5.24 5.02 17.9% 11.2% 31.2% 34.4% 17.2%
L14 2 5.39 3.38 19.2% 10.6% 21.2% 39.4% 18.2%

Once again, we have a single early game on the schedule. While we’re at it, happy Friday everyone. This game is featured in the all-day slate on FanDuel and in the showdown slate on DraftKings. We can easily cross both pitchers off our list of potential targets on the all-day slate and we can cross Fulmer off our list on the showdown slate. In six starts this season, he has a 5.24 SIERA with a walk rate of 11% and a hard contact rate that is above his ground ball rate.

Quick Breakdown: Fulmer is an easy fade even with the wind blowing in from center field.

Tyler Chatwood
tyler-chatwood-300x200 FanDuel DraftKings FantasyDraft
Salary: $7,500 Salary: $16,300 Salary:
Salary Rank: 10 of 29 Salary Rank: 1 of 29 Salary Rank:
Stats Starts SIERA ERA K% BB% GB% HC% SC%
2017 25 4.78 4.69 19.0% 12.2% 58.1% 29.1% 22.1%
2018 6 5.59 3.31 22.1% 18.6% 52.5% 29.8% 15.5%
L14 2 5.58 2.45 19.2% 17.0% 53.6% 39.3% 10.7%

Chatwood has had a strange season. If you take away the 19% walk rate, his numbers look enticing. Unfortunately, we could see some regression if he continues to walk every fifth batter that he faces. His SIERA is two full runs higher than his ERA. While there are some concerns, he draws a favorable matchup against the White Sox and he’s facing them at home with a helping wind blowing in from center field. He’s the preferred target in the showdown slate, but there are better pitching options in the all-day slate.

Quick Breakdown: Fire up Chatwood as your pitcher in the showdown slate. He’s much preferred over Fulmer.

Batter Grind Down

Chicago White Sox

The White Sox are in a difficult spot today. They are facing a pitcher with an elite ground ball rate and an above-average strikeout rate. We have big winds blowing in from center field. This all leads to the lowest implied run total of any team on the schedule. If you are playing the showdown slate, the lefties are the preferred targets. Over the last two seasons, Chatwood has allowed a .347 xwOBA to batters from the left side of the plate, while holding righties to a .315 xwOBA.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

# Player Bats xwOBA L15 ISO HC% BB% K% GB% FD Pos. FD Sal. DK Pos. DK Sal. FDRFT Pos. FDRFT Sal.
1 Leury Garcia SWITCH 0.296 0.255 0.165 29.2% 4.1% 22.6% 53.9% 2B $2,400 2B/OF $6,700 N/A N/A
2 Yolmer Sanchez SWITCH 0.305 0.288 0.163 27.8% 6.0% 18.8% 46.3% 3B $3,200 3B $6,500 N/A N/A
3 Jose Abreu RIGHT 0.369 0.325 0.237 39.4% 5.1% 16.2% 45.2% 1B $3,600 1B $9,000 N/A N/A
4 Nick Delmonico LEFT 0.318 0.345 0.155 27.6% 11.7% 18.5% 40.9% OF $2,300 OF $5,800 N/A N/A
5 Welington Castillo RIGHT 0.348 0.340 0.219 38.6% 6.5% 27.1% 42.8% C $2,500 C $5,700 N/A N/A
6 Daniel Palka LEFT 0.371 0.356 0.361 31.0% 2.7% 18.9% 41.4% OF $2,800 1B/OF $6,900 N/A N/A
7 Tim Anderson RIGHT 0.264 0.289 0.144 26.4% 3.3% 26.9% 51.9% SS $3,100 SS $7,700 N/A N/A
8 Adam Engel RIGHT 0.221 0.255 0.089 24.0% 5.9% 37.0% 42.2% OF $2,000 OF $5,000 N/A N/A
9 Carson Fulmer RIGHT P $5,600 P $7,100 N/A N/A

Elite Plays – None

Secondary Plays – Leury Garcia, Yolmer Sanchez, Nick Delmonico, Daniel Palka

Stackability – RED

Chicago Cubs

The Cubs have an exploitable matchup against Carson Fulmer, but they may not be able to take advantage of it with the wind blowing in from center field. As we know, this ballpark can become extremely hitter or pitcher-friendly depending on the wind strength and direction. While home runs are a big ask, they should still be able to string together hits. In addition to a low strikeout rate, Fulmer has allowed a .376 xwOBA to lefties and a .401 xwOBA to righties. This is a game to avoid in the all-day slate, but load up on the Cubs in the showdown slate.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

# Player Bats xwOBA L15 ISO HC% BB% K% GB% FD Pos. FD Sal. DK Pos. DK Sal. FDRFT Pos. FDRFT Sal.
1 Ben Zobrist SWITCH 0.342 0.320 0.149 33.0% 11.2% 14.7% 50.5% OF $2,700 2B/OF $8,100 N/A N/A
2 Kris Bryant RIGHT 0.370 0.407 0.240 33.3% 12.9% 19.8% 39.2% 3B $5,100 3B $11,200 N/A N/A
3 Anthony Rizzo LEFT 0.398 0.286 0.218 34.2% 12.8% 12.3% 40.2% 1B $4,200 1B $10,500 N/A N/A
4 Javier Baez RIGHT 0.304 0.326 0.227 31.5% 5.3% 27.5% 47.7% 2B $4,300 2B $9,600 N/A N/A
5 Kyle Schwarber LEFT 0.369 0.352 0.285 37.5% 11.4% 28.3% 41.3% OF $3,600 OF $9,300 N/A N/A
6 Willson Contreras RIGHT 0.321 0.329 0.199 33.1% 7.2% 23.4% 51.2% C $3,100 C $7,400 N/A N/A
7 Addison Russell RIGHT 0.287 0.262 0.155 31.8% 6.5% 22.2% 38.6% SS $3,300 SS $6,100 N/A N/A
8 Ian Happ SWITCH 0.332 0.283 0.263 35.2% 10.8% 35.4% 40.0% OF $2,600 OF $7,200 N/A N/A
9 Tyler Chatwood RIGHT 0.149 0.250 0.032 9.7% 0.0% 18.4% 66.7% P $7,500 P $16,300 N/A N/A

Elite Plays – Kris Bryant, Kyle Schwarber

Secondary Plays – Ben Zobrist, Anthony Rizzo, Javier Baez, Willson Contreras

Stackability – YELLOW

NY Mets at Philadelphia – 7:05 PM ET

NY Mets Philadelphia
nymetsmlb Steven Matz philadelphiamlb Jake Arrieta
LEFT RIGHT
Vegas Moneyline Vegas Over/Under
PHI-141 8.0
Stats wOBA xwOBA HC% BB% K% GB% Stats wOBA xwOBA HC% BB% K% GB%
SP vs. Left (2016-17) 0.328 0.293 20.3% 12.5% 13.6% 62.9% SP vs. Left (2016-17) 0.337 0.323 30.3% 8.9% 23.6% 43.7%
SP vs. Right (2016-17) 0.357 0.363 37.3% 5.8% 20.6% 43.9% SP vs. Right (2016-17) 0.267 0.285 25.1% 7.1% 20.6% 50.9%

Pitcher Grind Down

Steven Matz
steven-matz-300x200 FanDuel DraftKings FantasyDraft
Salary: $6,800 Salary: $6,000 Salary: $11,900
Salary Rank: 16 of 29 Salary Rank: 19 of 29 Salary Rank: 18 of 29
Stats Starts SIERA ERA K% BB% GB% HC% SC%
2017 13 4.71 6.08 16.1% 6.4% 47.1% 32.9% 21.9%
2018 6 3.75 4.23 26.7% 9.5% 50.7% 36.1% 12.5%
L14 1 3.57 1.50 23.8% 4.8% 46.7% 40.0% 6.7%

The first game of the main slate features two above-average pitchers squaring off in a home run-friendly ballpark. In six starts this season, Matz owns a 3.75 SIERA with a strikeout rate of 27% and a ground ball rate of 51%. A matchup against the Phillies in this ballpark is of the boom or bust variety. While the Phillies have a number of potential strikeouts in their lineup, they’ll likely have eight right-handed hitters, a few of them with good numbers against southpaws.

Quick Breakdown: Matz is viable in tournaments, but he’s a risk/reward type of play in this ballpark.

Jake Arrieta
jake-arrieta-300x200 FanDuel DraftKings FantasyDraft
Salary: $8,000 Salary: $8,100 Salary: $16,000
Salary Rank: 9 of 29 Salary Rank: 9 of 29 Salary Rank: 8 of 29
Stats Starts SIERA ERA K% BB% GB% HC% SC%
2017 30 4.15 3.53 23.1% 7.8% 45.1% 29.4% 20.0%
2018 6 4.47 3.15 16.1% 8.8% 60.4% 17.7% 19.6%
L14 2 5.54 6.52 9.8% 9.8% 54.5% 27.3% 21.2%

Arrieta looked good in a couple of starts earlier this season, but hasn’t been in the best of form recently. In six starts total, he owns a 4.47 SIERA with a strikeout rate of only 16%. The ground ball and hard contact rates are appealing, but he’s a tough sell in DFS if he’s going to have such a low strikeout rate. The Mets actually have a good offense when facing a right-handed pitcher. Both of these pitchers can be avoided in cash games, but from an upside perspective, I prefer Matz over Arrieta in tournaments.

Quick Breakdown: Avoid Arrieta in all formats.

Batter Grind Down

NY Mets

Throughout his career, the best way to target Jake Arrieta is with left-handed hitters. Over the last two seasons, he has allowed a .323 xwOBA and a 30% hard contact rate to lefties. The Mets have four good ones in Brandon Nimmo, Asdrubal Cabrera, Jay Bruce, and Michael Conforto. Only three of them will be in the lineup tonight. While I’m not looking to stack the Mets here, they are certainly viable as one-offs in tournaments.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

# Player Bats xwOBA L15 ISO HC% BB% K% GB% FD Pos. FD Sal. DK Pos. DK Sal. FDRFT Pos. FDRFT Sal.
1 Brandon Nimmo LEFT 0.403 0.261 0.205 37.6% 16.3% 24.0% 38.4% OF $2,700 OF $3,200 LF $6,500
2 Wilmer Flores RIGHT 0.342 0.344 0.212 34.9% 6.8% 13.7% 34.9% 1B $2,500 1B $3,200 3B $6,800
3 Yoenis Cespedes RIGHT 0.341 0.425 0.224 39.3% 6.7% 21.7% 34.7% OF $3,800 OF $4,100 LF $8,200
4 Asdrubal Cabrera SWITCH 0.350 0.383 0.185 37.5% 9.2% 17.2% 39.8% 2B $3,900 2B $4,000 SS $7,200
5 Adrian Gonzalez LEFT 0.354 0.363 0.158 37.4% 7.8% 16.6% 36.5% 1B $2,800 1B $3,500 1B $6,900
6 Devin Mesoraco RIGHT 0.304 0.284 0.172 31.0% 9.2% 25.5% 41.4% C $2,000 C $2,600 C $4,700
7 Michael Conforto LEFT 0.380 0.256 0.258 38.6% 15.1% 22.3% 38.2% OF $3,300 OF $3,700 LF $7,300
8 Steven Matz LEFT 0.230 0.334 0.000 10.5% 0.0% 24.0% 41.2% P $6,800 P $6,000 P $11,900
9 Amed Rosario RIGHT 0.257 0.345 0.100 25.8% 2.3% 28.4% 50.3% SS $2,500 SS $2,900 SS $5,900

Elite Plays – None

Secondary Plays – Brandon Nimmo, Asdrubal Cabrera, Jay Bruce, Michael Conforto

Stackability – ORANGE / YELLOW

Philadelphia

The Phillies have been a popular offense to stack when playing at home, but I doubt that’s the case tonight. Steven Matz has an above-average strikeout rate and an above-average ground ball rate. He has certainly struggled against right-handed hitters though, allowing a .363 xwOBA and a 37% hard contact rate over the last two seasons. Cesar Hernandez, Aaron Altherr, Rhys Hoskins, and Carlos Santana are all viable tournament plays.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. LH Pitching)

# Player Bats xwOBA L15 ISO HC% BB% K% GB% FD Pos. FD Sal. DK Pos. DK Sal. FDRFT Pos. FDRFT Sal.
1 Cesar Hernandez SWITCH 0.367 0.375 0.158 26.6% 12.8% 11.8% 57.0% 2B $4,000 2B $4,000 2B $7,400
2 Aaron Altherr RIGHT 0.379 0.432 0.282 40.4% 13.2% 18.4% 44.2% OF $2,900 OF $3,600 LF $7,300
3 Odubel Herrera LEFT 0.317 0.441 0.177 30.8% 3.9% 22.5% 49.7% OF $4,000 OF $4,000 IF/OF $7,500
4 Rhys Hoskins RIGHT 0.435 0.352 0.324 44.9% 26.8% 20.6% 32.7% OF $4,100 OF $4,700 IF/OF $9,200
5 Carlos Santana SWITCH 0.345 0.351 0.163 32.2% 12.8% 10.1% 48.9% 1B $3,700 1B $4,000 1B $7,500
6 Maikel Franco RIGHT 0.318 0.408 0.190 34.0% 7.1% 13.2% 46.2% 3B $3,900 3B $4,200 3B $8,500
7 Scott Kingery RIGHT 0.276 0.263 0.129 36.8% 3.1% 37.5% 36.8% SS $2,400 3B/SS $3,200 SS $6,400
8 Jorge Alfaro RIGHT 0.275 0.374 0.088 35.3% 9.5% 36.5% 52.9% C $2,200 C $3,100 C $5,500
9 Jake Arrieta RIGHT 0.137 0.182 0.000 16.7% 0.0% 53.8% 50.0% P $8,000 P $8,100 P $16,000

Elite Plays – Rhys Hoskins (GPP)

Secondary Plays – Rhys Hoskins (GPP), Cesar Hernandez, Aaron Altherr, Carlos Santana

Stackability – YELLOW

San Francisco at Pittsburgh – 7:05 PM ET

San Francisco Pittsburgh
sanfranciscomlb Andrew Suarez pittsburghmlb Jameson Taillon
LEFT RIGHT
Vegas Moneyline Vegas Over/Under
PIT-125 8.0
Stats wOBA xwOBA HC% BB% K% GB% Stats wOBA xwOBA HC% BB% K% GB%
SP vs. Left (2016-17) 0.146 0.220 33.3% 0.0% 34.8% 53.3% SP vs. Left (2016-17) 0.339 0.339 27.1% 10.1% 15.9% 50.4%
SP vs. Right (2016-17) 0.377 0.352 60.0% 4.8% 23.8% 53.3% SP vs. Right (2016-17) 0.320 0.277 30.1% 5.5% 25.2% 47.7%

Pitcher Grind Down

Andrew Suarez
andrew-suarez-300x200 FanDuel DraftKings FantasyDraft
Salary: $7,100 Salary: $7,100 Salary: $14,000
Salary Rank: 14 of 29 Salary Rank: 12 of 29 Salary Rank: 12 of 29
Stats Starts SIERA ERA K% BB% GB% HC% SC%
2018 3 2.89 3.06 27.7% 3.1% 53.3% 51.1% 11.1%
L14 2 3.44 1.46 24.4% 4.4% 50.0% 50.0% 12.5%

Suarez has been terrific in his first three major league starts, posting a 2.89 SIERA with a strikeout rate of 28% and a ground ball rate of 53%. I hate to be a curmudgeon, but I’m not sure he’s going to be able to sustain this high of a strikeout rate. In his last full season at the Triple-A level, he had a strikeout rate of only 21%. At the major league level, a swinging strike rate of 7.7% doesn’t really support a 28% strikeout rate. With that said, he draws a decent matchup against the Pirates in a pitcher-friendly ballpark and he’s only $7,100 on DraftKings.

Quick Breakdown: Suarez is viable as an SP2 tonight, especially in tournaments.

Jameson Taillon
jameson-taillon-300x200 FanDuel DraftKings FantasyDraft
Salary: $7,400 Salary: $7,300 Salary: $14,800
Salary Rank: 11 of 29 Salary Rank: 11 of 29 Salary Rank: 11 of 29
Stats Starts SIERA ERA K% BB% GB% HC% SC%
2017 25 4.24 4.44 21.3% 7.8% 47.3% 29.6% 22.1%
2018 7 3.96 4.42 19.4% 7.1% 55.5% 25.0% 21.4%
L14 2 4.78 3.27 12.8% 8.5% 56.8% 18.9% 21.6%

Taillon is more talented than his current numbers suggest. When all is said and done this season, I expect him to have better than a 3.96 SIERA and a strikeout rate of 19%. He has a high ground ball rate and he induces a lot of soft and medium contact. If he can improve his strikeout rate, he’ll be a pitcher on our radar every time he takes the mound. His matchup against the Giants is better than you would expect, as six of their projected starters have a strikeout rate of at least 22% against right-handed pitching.

Quick Breakdown: Taillon is viable in all formats, especially at this price point.

Batter Grind Down

San Francisco

This is not a game that I want to target offensively. We have two above-average pitchers on the mound and the game is being playing in the pitcher-friendly PNC Park. Jameson Taillon strikeout rate hasn’t been as high this season, but he’s still generating a lot of ground balls and soft contact. Brandon Belt is typically an intriguing one-off in tournaments, but first base is loaded with options in tonight’s 14-game slate.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

# Player Bats xwOBA L15 ISO HC% BB% K% GB% FD Pos. FD Sal. DK Pos. DK Sal. FDRFT Pos. FDRFT Sal.
1 Gregor Blanco LEFT 0.294 0.235 0.117 26.7% 12.2% 22.4% 42.3% OF $2,300 OF $2,800 LF $5,500
2 Andrew McCutchen RIGHT 0.349 0.466 0.152 34.9% 11.5% 18.3% 41.7% OF $3,300 OF $3,800 RF $7,700
3 Buster Posey RIGHT 0.353 0.363 0.108 31.1% 8.9% 12.0% 47.5% C $2,900 C $3,800 C $7,400
4 Brandon Belt LEFT 0.418 0.442 0.269 42.6% 16.5% 22.4% 23.8% 1B $3,800 1B $3,900 IF/OF $7,400
5 Evan Longoria RIGHT 0.315 0.340 0.168 35.6% 4.3% 16.7% 42.2% 3B $3,000 3B $3,800 3B $7,200
6 Brandon Crawford LEFT 0.313 0.340 0.141 34.5% 6.5% 22.1% 46.8% SS $2,900 SS $3,200 SS $6,400
7 Pablo Sandoval SWITCH 0.335 0.350 0.183 36.8% 6.7% 21.6% 47.3% 3B $2,200 3B $2,800 3B $5,500
8 Alen Hanson SWITCH 0.236 0.303 0.141 21.1% 4.4% 22.4% 49.1% 2B $3,300 2B $3,300 2B $6,700
9 Andrew Suarez LEFT 0.231 0.173 0.000 0.0% 25.0% 50.0% 0.0% P $7,100 P $7,100 P $14,000

Elite Plays – None

Secondary Plays – None

Stackability – RED

Pittsburgh

The sample size is still very small with Andrew Suarez, but he has a high strikeout rate and a high ground ball rate. That’s typically not a great combination for the opposing offense. The Pirates are favored here, but still have a low implied run total. Outside of a Josh Bell one-off, the Pirates can be avoided.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. LH Pitching)

# Player Bats xwOBA L15 ISO HC% BB% K% GB% FD Pos. FD Sal. DK Pos. DK Sal. FDRFT Pos. FDRFT Sal.
1 Adam Frazier LEFT 0.294 0.289 0.015 15.1% 4.1% 20.5% 52.9% OF $2,200 2B/OF $3,100 IF/OF $6,000
2 Gregory Polanco LEFT 0.257 0.373 0.099 18.5% 7.3% 24.4% 46.9% OF $3,600 OF $3,800 RF $7,500
3 Starling Marte RIGHT 0.301 0.282 0.101 28.0% 7.4% 22.2% 50.7% OF $3,900 OF $4,200 CF $7,600
4 Josh Bell SWITCH 0.353 0.316 0.207 31.2% 9.5% 16.0% 48.0% 1B $3,200 1B $3,600 1B $7,200
5 Corey Dickerson LEFT 0.282 0.379 0.163 29.9% 3.8% 25.3% 46.5% OF $3,900 OF $4,000 LF $7,500
6 Francisco Cervelli RIGHT 0.312 0.496 0.167 32.1% 9.9% 23.5% 56.6% C $3,100 C $3,600 C $7,300
7 Colin Moran LEFT 0.267 0.423 0.273 22.2% 8.3% 16.7% 66.7% 3B $3,100 3B $3,400 3B $6,500
8 Jordy Mercer RIGHT 0.316 0.299 0.134 38.3% 8.2% 15.2% 47.1% SS $2,700 SS $3,000 SS $5,600
9 Jameson Taillon RIGHT 0.204 0.199 0.000 9.1% 0.0% 15.4% 77.8% P $7,400 P $7,300 P $14,800

Elite Plays – None

Secondary Plays – Josh Bell

Stackability – ORANGE

Tampa Bay at Baltimore – 7:05 PM ET

Tampa Bay Baltimore
tampabaymlb Jake Faria baltimoremlb Kevin Gausman
RIGHT RIGHT
Vegas Moneyline Vegas Over/Under
BAL-125 9.0
Stats wOBA xwOBA HC% BB% K% GB% Stats wOBA xwOBA HC% BB% K% GB%
SP vs. Left (2016-17) 0.277 0.341 28.7% 17.8% 20.0% 47.0% SP vs. Left (2016-17) 0.346 0.345 30.1% 11.9% 20.8% 39.8%
SP vs. Right (2016-17) 0.304 0.315 36.1% 4.4% 24.4% 32.7% SP vs. Right (2016-17) 0.333 0.340 34.2% 5.6% 22.2% 45.4%

Pitcher Grind Down

Jake Faria
jacob-faria-300x200 FanDuel DraftKings FantasyDraft
Salary: $7,300 Salary: $8,300 Salary: $15,800
Salary Rank: 12 of 29 Salary Rank: 8 of 29 Salary Rank: 9 of 29
Stats Starts SIERA ERA K% BB% GB% HC% SC%
2017 14 4.26 3.43 23.5% 8.7% 38.3% 31.2% 19.8%
2018 7 4.75 4.15 20.8% 11.1% 36.1% 39.2% 16.5%
L14 2 3.45 0.68 22.2% 4.4% 54.5% 24.2% 24.2%

Faria got off to a shaky start this season, but has rebounded nicely in his last two starts. After an impressive rookie season in 2017, perhaps the expectations got to him in the early part of this year. He’s certainly an intriguing tournament play tonight and one that should garner very little ownership. He will be facing a right-handed heavy Orioles’ offense that has a high strikeout rate against right-handed pitching. Over the last two seasons, Faria has held righties to a .315 xwOBA with a 24% strikeout rate.

Quick Breakdown: Faria is an elite tournament play on multi-pitcher sites.

Kevin Gausman
kevin-gausman-300x200 FanDuel DraftKings FantasyDraft
Salary: $8,600 Salary: $8,400 Salary: $16,300
Salary Rank: 5 of 29 Salary Rank: 7 of 29 Salary Rank: 7 of 29
Stats Starts SIERA ERA K% BB% GB% HC% SC%
2017 34 4.41 4.68 21.9% 8.7% 42.7% 32.3% 18.2%
2018 7 4.19 3.30 20.0% 6.7% 44.6% 33.6% 16.0%
L14 2 4.40 0.61 18.2% 9.1% 60.0% 32.5% 10.0%

What on earth do we do with Gausman? He’s had flashes of brilliance a number of times over the last two seasons, but his numbers this year are mediocre at best. He currently owns a 4.19 SIERA with a strikeout rate of 20%. A matchup against the Rays is an exploitable one, but a fly-ball pitcher that struggles with right-handed power always makes me a little nervous in this ballpark. This may be a hot take, but I’ll take Jake Faria over Gausman, especially if he’s going to be lower owned.

Quick Breakdown: Gausman will garner some ownership in tournaments, but I’ll take my chances with a fade.

Batter Grind Down

Tampa Bay

The Rays see a ballpark bump playing in Camden Yards, which has historically treated right-handed power well. This matchup bodes well for the ballpark too, as Kevin Gausman has had reverse-splits throughout his career. Now, whether the Rays can take advantage of this is another question. They don’t have the most potent offense in baseball and I don’t feel great about loading up on Tampa in a 14-game slate.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

# Player Bats xwOBA L15 ISO HC% BB% K% GB% FD Pos. FD Sal. DK Pos. DK Sal. FDRFT Pos. FDRFT Sal.
1 Denard Span LEFT 0.343 0.374 0.174 28.9% 8.6% 12.5% 41.3% OF $3,100 OF $4,200 CF $8,400
2 C.J. Cron RIGHT 0.336 0.349 0.167 36.0% 5.3% 24.9% 35.6% 1B $3,300 1B $3,700 1B $7,200
3 Matt Duffy RIGHT 0.303 0.288 0.106 30.0% 6.9% 23.6% 46.0% 3B $2,800 3B $3,300 3B $6,700
4 Brad Miller LEFT 0.328 0.350 0.134 36.7% 16.5% 26.8% 47.2% 1B $2,400 1B $3,100 2B $5,800
5 Wilson Ramos RIGHT 0.330 0.440 0.178 34.5% 4.8% 18.0% 52.9% C $2,800 C $3,800 C $7,400
6 Joey Wendle LEFT 0.284 0.286 0.165 40.6% 6.5% 18.3% 50.7% 2B $2,400 2B $3,400 2B $6,400
7 Carlos Gomez RIGHT 0.343 0.265 0.214 39.9% 7.5% 29.2% 37.8% OF $2,400 OF $3,700 CF $7,500
8 Mallex Smith LEFT 0.270 0.261 0.091 21.1% 9.6% 18.6% 48.4% OF $3,000 OF $3,800 CF $7,400
9 Daniel Robertson RIGHT 0.296 0.330 0.101 31.7% 11.2% 27.8% 49.3% 2B $2,700 2B/3B $3,400 2B $6,500

Elite Plays – None

Secondary Plays – Denard Span, C.J. Cron, Matt Duffy, Brad Miller, Wilson Ramos

Stackability – ORANGE / YELLOW

Baltimore

The Orioles don’t have the right pieces to take advantage of their matchup against Jake Faria. He has struggled with left-handed hitters over the last two seasons, but has held righties to a .315 xwOBA with a 24% strikeout rate. Manny Machado is viable as a one-off in tournaments, but I’m not nearly as high on this offense as the betting markets.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

# Player Bats xwOBA L15 ISO HC% BB% K% GB% FD Pos. FD Sal. DK Pos. DK Sal. FDRFT Pos. FDRFT Sal.
1 Trey Mancini RIGHT 0.357 0.313 0.195 34.7% 7.0% 23.4% 50.0% OF $2,800 1B/OF $3,400 IF/OF $6,600
2 Adam Jones RIGHT 0.327 0.321 0.194 31.9% 3.1% 18.4% 43.8% OF $2,600 OF $3,500 CF $6,400
3 Manny Machado RIGHT 0.369 0.329 0.210 36.2% 8.6% 16.6% 42.4% SS $4,400 SS $4,900 3B $9,500
4 Jonathan Schoop RIGHT 0.311 0.406 0.182 33.6% 3.7% 21.2% 42.4% 2B $3,300 2B $3,500 2B $6,500
5 Mark Trumbo RIGHT 0.301 0.306 0.154 31.6% 7.0% 25.5% 43.2% OF $3,000 1B/OF $3,800 DH $7,600
6 Pedro Alvarez LEFT 0.368 0.439 0.204 36.6% 11.2% 27.6% 40.8% 3B $2,500 1B/3B $3,700 1B $7,500
7 Chris Davis LEFT 0.336 0.338 0.205 41.5% 12.1% 34.6% 40.3% 1B $2,700 1B $3,300 IF/OF $6,500
8 Anthony Santander SWITCH 0.308 0.333 0.109 37.2% 3.1% 15.6% 32.1% OF $2,000 OF $3,000 RF $5,400
9 Caleb Joseph RIGHT 0.247 0.260 0.137 25.2% 2.9% 28.4% 47.3% C $2,000 C $2,400 C $4,700

Elite Plays – None

Secondary Plays – Manny Machado

Stackability – ORANGE

Boston at Toronto – 7:07 PM ET

Boston Toronto
bostonmlb Chris Sale torontomlb Aaron Sanchez
LEFT RIGHT
Vegas Moneyline Vegas Over/Under
BOS-170 8.5
Stats wOBA xwOBA HC% BB% K% GB% Stats wOBA xwOBA HC% BB% K% GB%
SP vs. Left (2016-17) 0.243 0.259 18.6% 4.2% 32.9% 45.0% SP vs. Left (2016-17) 0.361 0.367 33.0% 16.3% 16.9% 51.9%
SP vs. Right (2016-17) 0.264 0.256 31.0% 5.4% 36.0% 38.1% SP vs. Right (2016-17) 0.335 0.362 28.0% 8.4% 13.2% 51.7%

Pitcher Grind Down

Chris Sale
chris-sale-300x200 FanDuel DraftKings FantasyDraft
Salary: $11,200 Salary: $12,400 Salary: $23,800
Salary Rank: 3 of 29 Salary Rank: 4 of 29 Salary Rank: 3 of 29
Stats Starts SIERA ERA K% BB% GB% HC% SC%
2017 32 2.58 2.90 36.2% 5.1% 38.7% 29.7% 18.5%
2018 8 2.80 2.02 32.3% 5.6% 41.7% 25.9% 29.3%
L14 3 3.37 2.25 26.8% 6.1% 48.0% 24.0% 32.0%

We have an interesting decision at the top tonight, as Sale, Scherzer, and Verlander are all taking the mound. Sale has as much upside as the other two, but draws the most difficult matchup. He is pitching on the road in the hitter-friendly Rogers Centre. The projected lineup for the Blue Jays has a .338 xwOBA against left-handed pitching. Sale has enough talent to overcome any matchup, but his median projection may not be as high as Scherzer’s or Verlander’s.

Quick Breakdown: If Sale ends up being low owned, I’ll be overweight in tournaments. However, I prefer Verlander with everything else being equal.

Aaron Sanchez
aaron-sanchez-300x200 FanDuel DraftKings FantasyDraft
Salary: $5,800 Salary: $5,800 Salary: $11,300
Salary Rank: 24 of 29 Salary Rank: 22 of 29 Salary Rank: 20 of 29
Stats Starts SIERA ERA K% BB% GB% HC% SC%
2017 8 5.62 4.25 14.4% 12.0% 47.5% 29.5% 21.3%
2018 7 5.18 4.14 15.3% 12.0% 55.9% 30.7% 20.5%
L14 2 5.93 5.59 10.2% 14.3% 55.6% 47.2% 13.9%

Sanchez has not been the same since Tommy John surgery. He struggled in 2017 and it’s been a bumpy ride here in 2018. He currently owns a 5.18 SIERA with a strikeout rate of only 15%. He still has a high ground ball rate, but that’s not enough of a reason to play him in any format. A matchup against the Red Sox certainly doesn’t help.

Quick Breakdown: Avoid Sanchez in all formats.

Batter Grind Down

Boston

I know that this game is in Toronto, but this line looks a little fishy. With these two pitchers on the mound, I figured the Red Sox would be at least -200 favorites. Sports betting isn’t quite legal, but if it was, I would place a little wager on the Red Sox run line. For DFS, their offense should be on our short list of potential targets. Aaron Sanchez has allowed a .360+ xwOBA to both left and right-handed hitters over the last two seasons.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

# Player Bats xwOBA L15 ISO HC% BB% K% GB% FD Pos. FD Sal. DK Pos. DK Sal. FDRFT Pos. FDRFT Sal.
1 Mookie Betts RIGHT 0.370 0.543 0.219 38.8% 9.8% 12.1% 38.0% OF $4,800 OF $5,900 RF $11,700
2 Andrew Benintendi LEFT 0.344 0.266 0.181 34.8% 10.3% 16.3% 37.6% OF $3,700 OF $4,300 LF $8,200
3 Hanley Ramirez RIGHT 0.366 0.350 0.180 35.2% 8.0% 19.6% 42.5% 1B $3,900 1B $4,000 1B $7,300
4 J.D. Martinez RIGHT 0.424 0.420 0.339 49.2% 9.5% 26.4% 42.5% OF $4,400 OF $5,000 RF $9,900
5 Xander Bogaerts RIGHT 0.298 0.352 0.149 33.3% 7.7% 19.0% 47.7% SS $3,900 SS $4,400 SS $8,600
6 Mitch Moreland LEFT 0.398 0.463 0.232 39.2% 9.5% 19.6% 41.1% 1B $3,500 1B $4,200 1B $8,300
7 Eduardo Nunez RIGHT 0.270 0.263 0.160 25.3% 3.1% 12.8% 51.9% 2B $3,000 2B/SS $3,300 3B $6,700
8 Rafael Devers LEFT 0.315 0.337 0.197 38.8% 6.8% 23.6% 47.5% 3B $3,100 3B $3,800 3B $7,700
9 Christian Vazquez RIGHT 0.287 0.261 0.089 25.1% 4.9% 19.0% 46.7% C $2,000 C $2,400 C $5,000

Elite Plays – Mookie Betts, J.D. Martinez

Secondary Plays – Andrew Benintendi, Hanley Ramirez, Xander Bogaerts, Mitch Moreland

Stackability – YELLOW / GREEN

Toronto

The Blue Jays have one of the worst matchups on the board. In addition to having one of the highest strikeout rates in baseball, Chris Sale has held both left and right-handed hitters under a .260 xwOBA over the last two seasons. Josh Donaldson is typically viable as a one-off whenever facing a lefty, but it’s hard not to play the chalk at third base with both Travis Shaw and Nolan Arenado playing in better matchups in Coors Field.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. LH Pitching)

# Player Bats xwOBA L15 ISO HC% BB% K% GB% FD Pos. FD Sal. DK Pos. DK Sal. FDRFT Pos. FDRFT Sal.
1 Teoscar Hernandez RIGHT 0.366 0.391 0.259 37.1% 7.8% 37.5% 37.1% OF $3,400 OF $3,400 CF $6,800
2 Josh Donaldson RIGHT 0.393 0.247 0.355 42.5% 12.7% 23.8% 40.0% 3B $3,700 3B $4,000 3B $7,200
3 Justin Smoak SWITCH 0.387 0.346 0.202 34.3% 11.4% 14.0% 39.9% 1B $3,100 1B $3,000 1B $5,500
4 Yangervis Solarte SWITCH 0.335 0.366 0.132 28.7% 8.2% 9.7% 45.2% 3B $3,100 2B/3B $3,300 2B $6,800
5 Kevin Pillar RIGHT 0.339 0.404 0.222 32.9% 5.5% 14.5% 40.1% OF $2,900 OF $3,100 CF $5,500
6 Russell Martin RIGHT 0.333 0.326 0.107 34.5% 15.4% 26.0% 40.4% C $2,300 C $2,700 C $5,800
7 Kendrys Morales SWITCH 0.364 0.312 0.217 43.6% 6.7% 22.4% 55.6% 1B $2,200 1B $2,900 1B $5,700
8 Lourdes Gurriel RIGHT 0.336 0.373 0.000 31.6% 4.3% 13.0% 63.2% 2B $2,000 2B/SS $2,700 2B $5,700
9 Anthony Alford RIGHT 0.186 0.305 0.000 0.0% 14.3% 28.6% 75.0% OF $2,100 OF $2,800 CF $5,700

Elite Plays – None

Secondary Plays – None

Stackability – RED

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About the Author

Notorious
Derek Farnsworth (Notorious)

Derek Farnsworth (aka Notorious) is a lead RotoGrinders Expert and one of the most recognizable names and faces in all of DFS. Before joining the RotoGrinders team, Derek received a Master’s Degree from the University of Utah. When he’s not busy providing content, he’s dominating the DFS industry as evidenced by his consistent top rankings in several sports and multiple Live Final appearances. Noto provides expert NBA, NFL, MLB, and PGA analysis for RotoGrinders Premium members on a daily basis and has also been nominated for five different Fantasy Sports Writer’s Association (FSWA) awards. Follow Noto on X – @RG_Notorious