MLB Grind Down: Friday, September 21st
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The RotoGrinders MLB Grind Down will give you an in-depth analysis into the upcoming MLB schedule. This article will break down the numbers for every single game and give you analysis on which trends you can exploit. While matchups are a major factor in daily fantasy baseball, there are plenty of other factors to consider such as injuries, weather, and salaries.
The analysis should point you in the right direction, but it is still up to you to decipher the information and make your own selections. No sport has more variance than baseball. The best choice is not always the right choice but following the trends will win you money over time.
Note: As always, if you want to try a new DFS site, be sure to click through a RotoGrinders link and use our DraftKings promo code, FanDuel promo code, and FantasyDraft promo code to receive the best perks in the industry.
Stackability Rating System:
GREEN – A viable full stack in cash games and GPPs.
YELLOW – A viable mini-stack in cash games and full stack in GPPs.
ORANGE – A viable stack in large field GPPs.
RED – Not a recommended stack for cash games or GPPs.
Implied Run Totals
Ballpark Ratings
Baltimore at NY Yankees – 7:05 PM ET
Baltimore | NY Yankees | ||||||||||||||
Yefry Ramirez | CC Sabathia | ||||||||||||||
RIGHT | LEFT | ||||||||||||||
Vegas Moneyline | Vegas Over/Under | ||||||||||||||
NYY-320 | 9.0 | ||||||||||||||
Stats | wOBA | xwOBA | HC% | HR/9 | K% | GB% | Stats | wOBA | xwOBA | HC% | HR/9 | K% | GB% | ||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
SP vs. Left (2016-17) | 0.363 | 0.331 | 28.6% | 0.69 | 23.6% | 27.9% | SP vs. Left (2016-17) | 0.305 | 0.274 | 18.0% | 1.05 | 26.6% | 54.1% | ||
SP vs. Right (2016-17) | 0.305 | 0.306 | 27.8% | 1.52 | 20.5% | 43.2% | SP vs. Right (2016-17) | 0.323 | 0.313 | 30.8% | 1.24 | 19.7% | 41.9% |
Pitcher Grind Down
Yefry Ramirez | |||||||||||
FanDuel | DraftKings | FantasyDraft | |||||||||
Salary: | $5,800 | Salary: | $4,800 | Salary: | $9,100 | ||||||
Salary Rank: | 25 of 28 | Salary Rank: | 24 of 28 | Salary Rank: | 24 of 28 | ||||||
Stats | Starts | SIERA | ERA | K% | BB% | GB% | HC% | SC% | aFV | SwS% | |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
2018 | 10 | 4.69 | 5.50 | 22.1% | 12.1% | 36.5% | 28.1% | 23.1% | 92.5 | 11.4% | |
L14 | 1 | 3.01 | 1.00 | 33.3% | 9.1% | 38.9% | 5.3% | 42.1% | 93.5 | 12.3% |
We made it to another Friday. We kick off tonight’s 14-game slate with the Orioles and Yankees. Ramirez has pitched well recently, but he has a high fly-ball rate and he’s facing the Yankees in the hitter-friendly Yankee Stadium. It’s no surprise that New York has the highest implied run total on the board. Ramirez has significantly more downside than upside in this matchup.
Quick Breakdown: Avoid Ramirez in all formats.
CC Sabathia | |||||||||||
FanDuel | DraftKings | FantasyDraft | |||||||||
Salary: | $7,500 | Salary: | $7,500 | Salary: | $14,500 | ||||||
Salary Rank: | 14 of 28 | Salary Rank: | 14 of 28 | Salary Rank: | 15 of 28 | ||||||
Stats | Starts | SIERA | ERA | K% | BB% | GB% | HC% | SC% | aFV | SwS% | |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
2017 | 27 | 4.45 | 3.69 | 19.3% | 8.0% | 49.9% | 27.2% | 24.1% | 90.9 | 8.9% | |
2018 | 27 | 4.26 | 3.80 | 20.9% | 7.7% | 43.6% | 29.0% | 24.2% | 90.3 | 10.9% | |
L14 | 3 | 4.37 | 9.28 | 18.5% | 5.6% | 35.0% | 24.4% | 14.6% | 89.7 | 12.5% |
Sabathia is never a sexy play in DFS, but he’s one of the top point-per-dollar targets on the board tonight. His numbers as a whole are solid — 4.26 SIERA with a 21% strikeout rate and a 24% soft contact rate. He’s listed as a massive -320 favorite against the Orioles, whose projected lineup has an average xwOBA of only .292 with a strikeout rate of 26% against left-handed pitching. He’s been dominant in this matchup in the past, he offers a high floor/ceiling combination, and he’s cheap across the industry.
Quick Breakdown: Sabathia is an elite play in all formats.
Batter Grind Down
Baltimore
The Orioles are playing in a hitter-friendly ballpark, but they draw a difficult matchup against CC Sabathia. While his strikeout rate is mediocre, he owns an elite soft contact rate and has held both left and right-handed hitters under a .315 xwOBA this season. With so much interest in Sabathia on my end, I will naturally be fading the Orioles’ offense completely.
Projected Lineup (Splits vs. LH Pitching)
# | Player | Bats | xwOBA | ISO | HC% | BB% | K% | GB% | FD Pos. | FD Sal. | DK Pos. | DK Sal. | FDRFT Pos. | FDRFT Sal. |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
1 | Cedric Mullins | LEFT | 0.228 | 0.000 | 14.3% | 16.1% | 38.7% | 50.0% | OF | $3,000 | OF | $4,200 | CF | $8,400 |
2 | Joey Rickard | RIGHT | 0.276 | 0.217 | 29.8% | 6.8% | 29.7% | 29.8% | OF | $2,700 | OF | $3,700 | RF | $7,200 |
3 | Jonathan Villar | SWITCH | 0.331 | 0.181 | 42.4% | 5.0% | 27.7% | 51.6% | 2B | $3,300 | 2B | $4,200 | 2B | $8,400 |
4 | Adam Jones | RIGHT | 0.334 | 0.114 | 32.1% | 2.6% | 8.4% | 40.0% | OF | $3,100 | OF | $3,900 | CF | $7,200 |
5 | Trey Mancini | RIGHT | 0.285 | 0.123 | 22.8% | 7.1% | 24.3% | 66.7% | OF | $2,900 | 1B/OF | $3,700 | IF/OF | $7,200 |
6 | Tim Beckham | RIGHT | 0.305 | 0.169 | 30.2% | 9.2% | 26.5% | 45.2% | SS | $2,500 | 3B/SS | $3,300 | SS | $6,700 |
7 | Renato Nunez | RIGHT | 0.271 | 0.092 | 25.0% | 6.9% | 25.0% | 39.6% | 3B | $2,400 | 3B | $3,600 | IF/OF | $7,300 |
8 | Breyvic Valera | SWITCH | 0.334 | 0.000 | 50.0% | 15.4% | 23.1% | 57.1% | 2B | $2,000 | 2B | $3,400 | 2B | $6,700 |
9 | Austin Wynns | RIGHT | 0.262 | 0.000 | 16.0% | 0.0% | 30.6% | 48.0% | C | $2,100 | C | $3,000 | C | $5,600 |
Team Averages | 0.292 | 0.100 | 29.2% | 7.7% | 26.0% | 47.6% |
Elite Plays – None
Secondary Plays – None
Stackability – RED
NY Yankees
The Yankees have the highest implied run total on the board tonight, which is impressive considering the fact that there are two hittable pitchers squaring off in Texas. The Yankees draw an exploitable matchup against Yefry Ramirez, who has a high walk rate and a high fly-ball rate. If they can get to him early, they will feast on a very hittable Orioles’ bullpen. A full stack is viable in tournaments, while Andrew McCutchen, Aaron Judge, Giancarlo Stanton, Aaron Hicks, and Gary Sanchez all stand out as elite plays at their respective positions. Stanton always sees a boost when facing a fly-ball pitcher and he’s coming off of the big game last night where he hit the go-ahead grand slam.
Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)
# | Player | Bats | xwOBA | ISO | HC% | BB% | K% | GB% | FD Pos. | FD Sal. | DK Pos. | DK Sal. | FDRFT Pos. | FDRFT Sal. |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
1 | Andrew McCutchen | RIGHT | 0.363 | 0.156 | 44.4% | 14.4% | 21.9% | 40.6% | OF | $3,700 | OF | $4,300 | RF | $8,000 |
2 | Aaron Judge | RIGHT | 0.396 | 0.261 | 48.0% | 12.4% | 31.1% | 45.8% | OF | $4,300 | OF | $5,500 | RF | $10,100 |
3 | Didi Gregorius | LEFT | 0.347 | 0.258 | 37.9% | 9.2% | 11.8% | 36.4% | SS | $3,900 | SS | $5,200 | SS | $9,800 |
4 | Giancarlo Stanton | RIGHT | 0.326 | 0.206 | 38.1% | 9.0% | 31.9% | 45.8% | OF | $4,500 | OF | $4,800 | RF | $9,200 |
5 | Aaron Hicks | SWITCH | 0.379 | 0.183 | 37.1% | 17.0% | 19.3% | 42.6% | OF | $3,200 | OF | $4,400 | CF | $8,200 |
6 | Miguel Andujar | RIGHT | 0.356 | 0.223 | 37.2% | 3.5% | 16.5% | 47.0% | 3B | $4,400 | 3B | $4,600 | 3B | $8,900 |
7 | Gary Sanchez | RIGHT | 0.341 | 0.213 | 36.3% | 10.4% | 25.1% | 46.3% | C | $3,300 | C | $4,100 | C | $8,400 |
8 | Luke Voit | RIGHT | 0.443 | 0.317 | 42.9% | 14.9% | 27.0% | 41.9% | 1B | $3,800 | 1B | $4,100 | 1B | $8,000 |
9 | Gleyber Torres | RIGHT | 0.354 | 0.173 | 35.4% | 8.5% | 23.8% | 34.1% | 2B | $3,600 | 2B | $4,000 | 2B | $7,500 |
Team Averages | 0.367 | 0.221 | 39.7% | 11.0% | 23.2% | 42.3% |
Elite Plays – Andrew McCutchen, Aaron Judge, Giancarlo Stanton, Aaron Hicks, Gary Sanchez (DK)
Secondary Plays – Didi Gregorius, Miguel Andujar
Stackability – GREEN
Milwaukee at Pittsburgh – 7:05 PM ET
Milwaukee | Pittsburgh | ||||||||||||||
Jhoulys Chacin | Ivan Nova | ||||||||||||||
RIGHT | RIGHT | ||||||||||||||
Vegas Moneyline | Vegas Over/Under | ||||||||||||||
MIL-125 | 8.0 | ||||||||||||||
Stats | wOBA | xwOBA | HC% | HR/9 | K% | GB% | Stats | wOBA | xwOBA | HC% | HR/9 | K% | GB% | ||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
SP vs. Left (2016-17) | 0.334 | 0.360 | 39.7% | 0.86 | 15.8% | 42.1% | SP vs. Left (2016-17) | 0.346 | 0.378 | 31.9% | 1.63 | 12.3% | 42.1% | ||
SP vs. Right (2016-17) | 0.243 | 0.291 | 33.5% | 0.67 | 24.5% | 42.9% | SP vs. Right (2016-17) | 0.306 | 0.320 | 32.1% | 1.33 | 21.2% | 48.8% |
Pitcher Grind Down
Jhoulys Chacin | |||||||||||
FanDuel | DraftKings | FantasyDraft | |||||||||
Salary: | $7,400 | Salary: | $8,100 | Salary: | $16,200 | ||||||
Salary Rank: | 15 of 28 | Salary Rank: | 12 of 28 | Salary Rank: | 11 of 28 | ||||||
Stats | Starts | SIERA | ERA | K% | BB% | GB% | HC% | SC% | aFV | SwS% | |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
2017 | 32 | 4.63 | 3.89 | 20.0% | 9.4% | 49.1% | 28.5% | 20.2% | 91.4 | 7.9% | |
2018 | 32 | 4.51 | 3.54 | 20.1% | 8.9% | 42.5% | 36.8% | 18.4% | 90.1 | 8.6% | |
L14 | 3 | 4.03 | 3.68 | 24.1% | 8.6% | 37.8% | 41.0% | 20.5% | 91.0 | 9.7% |
Chacin isn’t a pitcher that I target often in DFS. He has a mediocre strikeout rate and his hard contact rate is a lot higher than it was a year ago. He basically need to be facing a right-handed heavy offense in a pitcher-friendly ballpark to warrant consideration. He doesn’t get that tonight, as he faces a low-strikeout Pirates’ offense that is loaded with left-handed hitters.
Quick Breakdown: Avoid Chacin in all formats.
Ivan Nova | |||||||||||
FanDuel | DraftKings | FantasyDraft | |||||||||
Salary: | $7,200 | Salary: | $7,000 | Salary: | $13,500 | ||||||
Salary Rank: | 17 of 28 | Salary Rank: | 17 of 28 | Salary Rank: | 18 of 28 | ||||||
Stats | Starts | SIERA | ERA | K% | BB% | GB% | HC% | SC% | aFV | SwS% | |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
2017 | 31 | 4.45 | 4.14 | 16.7% | 4.6% | 45.7% | 34.8% | 16.6% | 92.8 | 8.4% | |
2018 | 27 | 4.36 | 4.07 | 16.9% | 4.8% | 45.4% | 32.0% | 17.0% | 92.9 | 8.7% | |
L14 | 2 | 3.08 | 0.75 | 28.9% | 4.4% | 43.3% | 20.0% | 13.3% | 92.1 | 9.6% |
Nova is basically a carbon-copy of Chacin, only his strikeout rate is 3% lower. He needs to be facing a right-handed heavy offense in a pitcher-friendly ballpark to warrant consideration in DFS and even then, he has limited upside. I’m not buying into the recent form (29% strikeout rate in his last three starts) and I’m not a fan of his matchup against the Brewers, whose projected lineup includes four lefties with a .360+ xwOBA against right-handed pitching this season.
Quick Breakdown: Avoid Nova in all formats.
Batter Grind Down
Milwaukee
The Brewers are playing on the road in a pitcher-friendly ballpark, so we should temper our expectations. With that said, Ivan Nova has allowed a .378 xwOBA and a 1.63 HR/9 to left-handed hitters this season. The Brewers have no shortage of left-handed power, as Curtis Granderson, Christian Yelich, Travis Shaw, and Mike Moustakas all boast a .360+ xwOBA and a .205+ ISO against right-handed pitching this season.
Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)
# | Player | Bats | xwOBA | ISO | HC% | BB% | K% | GB% | FD Pos. | FD Sal. | DK Pos. | DK Sal. | FDRFT Pos. | FDRFT Sal. |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
1 | Curtis Granderson | LEFT | 0.360 | 0.209 | 37.3% | 13.0% | 25.5% | 31.3% | OF | $3,500 | OF | $4,400 | RF | $8,000 |
2 | Christian Yelich | LEFT | 0.422 | 0.257 | 48.4% | 9.6% | 22.1% | 50.7% | OF | $5,100 | OF | $5,800 | CF | $10,200 |
3 | Lorenzo Cain | RIGHT | 0.329 | 0.098 | 36.2% | 11.5% | 16.9% | 59.8% | OF | $3,500 | OF | $4,100 | CF | $8,300 |
4 | Travis Shaw | LEFT | 0.398 | 0.291 | 42.3% | 13.4% | 17.9% | 32.3% | 2B | $4,100 | 2B/3B | $4,300 | 3B | $8,500 |
5 | Jesus Aguilar | RIGHT | 0.384 | 0.275 | 45.7% | 9.8% | 25.7% | 31.6% | 1B | $4,000 | 1B | $4,500 | 1B | $9,400 |
6 | Mike Moustakas | LEFT | 0.363 | 0.239 | 44.0% | 9.0% | 17.3% | 29.8% | 3B | $3,700 | 3B | $4,200 | 3B | $8,000 |
7 | Jonathan Schoop | RIGHT | 0.276 | 0.220 | 26.7% | 2.5% | 24.2% | 45.1% | 2B | $2,900 | 2B | $3,700 | 2B | $7,500 |
8 | Manny Pina | RIGHT | 0.333 | 0.154 | 34.7% | 6.2% | 19.3% | 39.2% | C | $2,500 | C | $3,400 | C | $6,500 |
9 | Jhoulys Chacin | RIGHT | 0.163 | 0.000 | 22.9% | 4.2% | 22.9% | 63.3% | P | $7,400 | P | $8,100 | P | $16,200 |
Team Averages | 0.336 | 0.194 | 37.6% | 8.8% | 21.3% | 42.6% |
Elite Plays – Travis Shaw, Christian Yelich (GPP)
Secondary Plays – Christian Yelich (Cash), Curtis Granderson, Mike Moustakas (GPP)
Stackability – ORANGE / YELLOW
Pittsburgh
The Pirates are underdogs in a game that features a total of only 8.0 runs, so like the Brewers, we should temper our expectations for this offense. Their matchup against Jhoulys Chacin favors batters from the left side of the plate. On the season, Chacin has allowed a .360 xwOBA and a 40% hard contact rate to left-handed hitters. At the very least, Adam Frazier, Josh Bell, and Corey Dickerson deserve consideration as low-owned tournament plays.
Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)
# | Player | Bats | xwOBA | ISO | HC% | BB% | K% | GB% | FD Pos. | FD Sal. | DK Pos. | DK Sal. | FDRFT Pos. | FDRFT Sal. |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
1 | Adam Frazier | LEFT | 0.328 | 0.180 | 33.5% | 8.6% | 14.1% | 49.5% | 2B | $3,500 | 2B/OF | $4,100 | IF/OF | $8,400 |
2 | Starling Marte | RIGHT | 0.332 | 0.172 | 33.8% | 4.6% | 18.2% | 48.9% | OF | $3,700 | OF | $4,700 | CF | $9,000 |
3 | Josh Bell | SWITCH | 0.359 | 0.143 | 32.9% | 13.3% | 16.6% | 51.1% | 1B | $3,300 | 1B | $4,100 | 1B | $8,500 |
4 | Francisco Cervelli | RIGHT | 0.373 | 0.180 | 34.4% | 11.4% | 20.8% | 39.0% | C | $3,100 | C | $3,600 | C | $7,700 |
5 | Corey Dickerson | LEFT | 0.353 | 0.189 | 36.8% | 4.0% | 13.7% | 35.3% | OF | $3,400 | OF | $4,300 | LF | $8,300 |
6 | Pablo Reyes | RIGHT | 0.284 | 0.091 | 14.3% | 0.0% | 36.4% | 14.3% | OF | $2,200 | 3B/OF | $4,100 | 2B | $8,200 |
7 | Colin Moran | LEFT | 0.348 | 0.129 | 32.6% | 7.8% | 16.2% | 45.0% | 3B | $2,800 | 3B | $3,700 | 3B | $7,200 |
8 | Kevin Newman | RIGHT | 0.238 | 0.022 | 11.4% | 4.0% | 24.0% | 54.3% | SS | $2,300 | 2B/SS | $3,500 | SS | $6,700 |
9 | Ivan Nova | RIGHT | 0.099 | 0.000 | 10.5% | 0.0% | 50.0% | 68.8% | P | $7,200 | P | $7,000 | P | $13,500 |
Team Averages | 0.302 | 0.123 | 26.7% | 6.0% | 23.3% | 45.1% |
Elite Plays – None
Secondary Plays – Adam Frazier (GPP), Josh Bell (GPP), Corey Dickerson (GPP)
Stackability – ORANGE / YELLOW
NY Mets at Washington – 7:05 PM ET
NY Mets | Washington | ||||||||||||||
Jacob deGrom | Joe Ross | ||||||||||||||
RIGHT | RIGHT | ||||||||||||||
Vegas Moneyline | Vegas Over/Under | ||||||||||||||
NYM-133 | 8.0 | ||||||||||||||
Stats | wOBA | xwOBA | HC% | HR/9 | K% | GB% | Stats | wOBA | xwOBA | HC% | HR/9 | K% | GB% | ||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
SP vs. Left (2016-17) | 0.266 | 0.267 | 23.9% | 0.54 | 29.6% | 41.6% | SP vs. Left (2016-17) | 0.351 | 0.398 | 0.0% | 0.00 | 0.0% | 37.5% | ||
SP vs. Right (2016-17) | 0.209 | 0.247 | 31.3% | 0.35 | 34.4% | 48.2% | SP vs. Right (2016-17) | 0.236 | 0.388 | 22.2% | 0.00 | 0.0% | 11.1% |
Pitcher Grind Down
Jacob deGrom | |||||||||||
FanDuel | DraftKings | FantasyDraft | |||||||||
Salary: | $12,100 | Salary: | $12,400 | Salary: | $24,300 | ||||||
Salary Rank: | 1 of 28 | Salary Rank: | 1 of 28 | Salary Rank: | 1 of 28 | ||||||
Stats | Starts | SIERA | ERA | K% | BB% | GB% | HC% | SC% | aFV | SwS% | |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
2017 | 31 | 3.44 | 3.53 | 28.9% | 7.1% | 45.3% | 31.9% | 21.3% | 95.2 | 13.3% | |
2018 | 30 | 2.84 | 1.78 | 31.9% | 5.7% | 44.7% | 27.4% | 24.3% | 95.9 | 15.1% | |
L14 | 3 | 2.45 | 2.70 | 36.5% | 5.4% | 39.5% | 20.9% | 25.6% | 96.8 | 14.9% |
DeGrom broke the major league record for most consecutive quality starts and he’ll look to extend his streak tonight against the Nationals. The Mets have nothing to play for, so they might as well try to help deGrom break records and win the Cy Young. His numbers on the season are nothing short of incredible — 2.84 SIERA with a strikeout rate of 32% and a soft contact rate of 24%. This isn’t a great matchup on paper, but in two starts against the Nationals this season, deGrom has averaged 26 fantasy points per game (DK scoring).
Quick Breakdown: If we take salaries out of the equation, deGrom is the top pitcher in the slate. However, I’m looking to heavily target the mid-range of pitchers.
Joe Ross | |||||||||||
FanDuel | DraftKings | FantasyDraft | |||||||||
Salary: | $6,200 | Salary: | $5,500 | Salary: | $11,100 | ||||||
Salary Rank: | 24 of 28 | Salary Rank: | 23 of 28 | Salary Rank: | 23 of 28 | ||||||
Stats | Starts | SIERA | ERA | K% | BB% | GB% | HC% | SC% | aFV | SwS% | |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
2017 | 13 | 4.28 | 5.01 | 21.1% | 6.2% | 37.5% | 36.9% | 19.3% | 91.4 | 10.1% | |
2018 | 1 | 8.30 | 3.60 | 0.0% | 10.0% | 23.5% | 11.8% | 41.2% | 93.6 | 8.1% | |
L14 | 1 | 8.30 | 3.60 | 0.0% | 10.0% | 23.5% | 11.8% | 41.2% | 93.6 | 8.1% |
Ross didn’t record a single strikeout in his last start. I know because I rostered him and was checking the game on my phone all night. He’s had good velocity (both in his one start and in the minors) and he’s coming off of a 2017 season where he posted a 21% strikeout rate. While he should be fine in the long run, I’ll probably wait until next year before I target him in DFS again. The Mets continue to make life tough on right-handed pitchers.
Quick Breakdown: Avoid Ross in all formats.
Batter Grind Down
NY Mets
The Mets are favored tonight, but they are playing on the road in a pitcher-friendly ballpark. Joe Ross is a capable right-handed pitcher, but he has struggled with left-handed hitters throughout his career. I will likely be fading the Mets completely, but I won’t talk anyone out of playing these lefties in tournaments. Michael Conforto, Jay Bruce, and Brandon Nimmo all bat from the left side and all boast a .345+ xwOBA against right-handed pitching this season.
Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)
# | Player | Bats | xwOBA | ISO | HC% | BB% | K% | GB% | FD Pos. | FD Sal. | DK Pos. | DK Sal. | FDRFT Pos. | FDRFT Sal. |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
1 | Amed Rosario | RIGHT | 0.291 | 0.138 | 28.0% | 4.8% | 18.9% | 49.2% | SS | $2,800 | SS | $3,800 | SS | $7,700 |
2 | Jeff McNeil | LEFT | 0.318 | 0.157 | 29.5% | 4.1% | 9.6% | 39.5% | 2B | $3,400 | 2B | $4,000 | 2B | $7,700 |
3 | Michael Conforto | LEFT | 0.345 | 0.180 | 36.5% | 14.8% | 22.2% | 40.9% | OF | $3,300 | OF | $4,600 | LF | $9,200 |
4 | Jay Bruce | LEFT | 0.372 | 0.161 | 35.1% | 11.9% | 18.7% | 29.8% | OF | $2,500 | 1B/OF | $3,600 | RF | $7,300 |
5 | Todd Frazier | RIGHT | 0.347 | 0.221 | 43.7% | 9.2% | 20.7% | 34.5% | 3B | $2,700 | 3B | $3,800 | 3B | $7,500 |
6 | Dominic Smith | LEFT | 0.278 | 0.235 | 39.1% | 2.0% | 33.7% | 28.1% | 1B | $2,000 | 1B/OF | $3,600 | IF/OF | $7,600 |
7 | Brandon Nimmo | LEFT | 0.379 | 0.258 | 36.6% | 14.9% | 23.2% | 40.3% | OF | $3,600 | OF | $4,700 | LF | $9,300 |
8 | Tomas Nido | RIGHT | 0.240 | 0.081 | 33.3% | 3.1% | 31.3% | 50.0% | C | $2,000 | C | $3,000 | C | $5,700 |
9 | Jacob deGrom | RIGHT | 0.184 | 0.028 | 0.0% | 5.1% | 33.3% | 50.0% | P | $12,100 | P | $12,400 | P | $24,300 |
Team Averages | 0.306 | 0.162 | 31.3% | 7.8% | 23.5% | 40.3% |
Elite Plays – None
Secondary Plays – Michael Conforto (GPP), Jay Bruce (GPP), Brandon Nimmo (GPP)
Stackability – ORANGE / YELLOW
Washington
The Nationals draw one of the worst matchups a team could possibly have. Jacob deGrom has elite strikeout and soft contact rates and has held both left and right-handed hitters under a .270 xwOBA this season. While he’s not the best at holding runners, you have to get on base before you can steal a bag. That could be an issue for the Nationals tonight.
Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)
# | Player | Bats | xwOBA | ISO | HC% | BB% | K% | GB% | FD Pos. | FD Sal. | DK Pos. | DK Sal. | FDRFT Pos. | FDRFT Sal. |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
1 | Adam Eaton | LEFT | 0.354 | 0.124 | 34.9% | 9.8% | 15.5% | 46.2% | OF | $3,400 | OF | $4,000 | RF | $7,700 |
2 | Trea Turner | RIGHT | 0.316 | 0.136 | 30.3% | 8.2% | 20.1% | 52.6% | SS | $3,600 | SS | $4,200 | IF/OF | $8,100 |
3 | Bryce Harper | LEFT | 0.395 | 0.266 | 42.2% | 18.7% | 24.5% | 38.2% | OF | $4,200 | OF | $4,500 | RF | $8,900 |
4 | Anthony Rendon | RIGHT | 0.386 | 0.195 | 36.1% | 8.3% | 13.1% | 35.6% | 3B | $4,100 | 3B | $4,100 | 3B | $8,100 |
5 | Juan Soto | LEFT | 0.393 | 0.225 | 35.4% | 18.6% | 19.8% | 50.0% | OF | $3,800 | OF | $4,300 | LF | $8,500 |
6 | Ryan Zimmerman | RIGHT | 0.379 | 0.212 | 37.6% | 7.1% | 17.1% | 51.0% | 1B | $3,000 | 1B | $3,500 | 1B | $6,300 |
7 | Matt Wieters | SWITCH | 0.309 | 0.128 | 33.3% | 7.3% | 14.6% | 37.7% | C | $2,200 | C | $2,800 | C | $5,700 |
8 | Wilmer Difo | SWITCH | 0.296 | 0.144 | 21.8% | 8.3% | 16.9% | 41.6% | 2B | $2,600 | 2B/3B | $2,900 | 2B | $5,800 |
9 | Joe Ross | RIGHT | P | $6,200 | P | $5,500 | P | $11,100 | ||||||
Team Averages | 0.354 | 0.179 | 34.0% | 10.8% | 17.7% | 44.1% |
Elite Plays – None
Secondary Plays – Trea Turner (GPP)
Stackability – ORANGE
Tampa Bay at Toronto – 7:07 PM ET
Tampa Bay | Toronto | ||||||||||||||
Jalen Beeks | Sean Reid-Foley | ||||||||||||||
LEFT | RIGHT | ||||||||||||||
Vegas Moneyline | Vegas Over/Under | ||||||||||||||
TB -120 | 8.5 | ||||||||||||||
Stats | wOBA | xwOBA | HC% | HR/9 | K% | GB% | Stats | wOBA | xwOBA | HC% | HR/9 | K% | GB% | ||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
SP vs. Left (2016-17) | 0.300 | 0.389 | 44.8% | 0.90 | 23.3% | 34.5% | SP vs. Left (2016-17) | 0.323 | 0.369 | 30.6% | 1.88 | 23.4% | 30.6% | ||
SP vs. Right (2016-17) | 0.351 | 0.320 | 22.7% | 0.56 | 18.9% | 51.6% | SP vs. Right (2016-17) | 0.381 | 0.323 | 35.5% | 2.31 | 32.7% | 45.2% |
Pitcher Grind Down
Jalen Beeks | |||||||||||
FanDuel | DraftKings | FantasyDraft | |||||||||
Salary: | $5,700 | Salary: | $6,300 | Salary: | $12,800 | ||||||
Salary Rank: | 26 of 28 | Salary Rank: | 21 of 28 | Salary Rank: | 21 of 28 | ||||||
Stats | Starts | SIERA | ERA | K% | BB% | GB% | HC% | SC% | aFV | SwS% | |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
2018 | 1 | 4.38 | 5.57 | 19.9% | 11.3% | 47.6% | 27.8% | 18.3% | 91.8 | 11.7% | |
L14 | 0 | 2.27 | 1.80 | 31.8% | 4.6% | 58.3% | 15.4% | 15.4% | 91.5 | 15.9% |
Diego Castillo will get the start tonight, but Beeks will get most of the work. For that reason, I decided to include him in the tables above since he’s the only viable pitcher to target from the Rays tonight. Beeks has been solid since joining the Rays and if this team can build a lead, he would be in line for the win. I’ve been using these Rays’ long relievers often in DFS, but the mid-range for pitching is loaded tonight.
Quick Breakdown: Beeks isn’t a terrible play, but he isn’t going to make the final cut on any of my lineups.
Sean Reid-Foley | |||||||||||
FanDuel | DraftKings | FantasyDraft | |||||||||
Salary: | $6,600 | Salary: | $6,400 | Salary: | $13,000 | ||||||
Salary Rank: | 22 of 28 | Salary Rank: | 20 of 28 | Salary Rank: | 20 of 28 | ||||||
Stats | Starts | SIERA | ERA | K% | BB% | GB% | HC% | SC% | aFV | SwS% | |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
2018 | 5 | 4.36 | 5.54 | 27.6% | 13.8% | 37.3% | 32.8% | 20.9% | 93.9 | 11.4% | |
L14 | 2 | 5.21 | 5.59 | 29.6% | 20.5% | 40.9% | 18.2% | 31.8% | 94.1 | 9.6% |
Reid-Foley has made five major league starts this season and he owns a 28% strikeout rate. While that’s impressive, I’m scared that everyone is going to flock to him as a cheap DFS play. Keep in mind that we are dealing with a small sample size and that he owns a 14% walk rate. Looking at his minor league numbers, Reid-Foley certainly has talent, but I don’t mind taking a stance against him tonight. The Rays have been hitting the ball well recently and have a left-handed heavy lineup.
Quick Breakdown: I personally will be avoiding Reid-Foley in all formats.
Batter Grind Down
Tampa Bay
The Rays see a significant ballpark boost playing in Toronto and they’ve been one of the hottest offenses in baseball over the last two weeks. With everyone gravitating toward Sean Reid-Foley as a cheap SP2 tonight, Tampa Bay should fly under the radar even though they are the team that is favored tonight. We are dealing with a small sample size, but Reid-Foley has allowed a .369 xwOBA to lefties this season. Mallex Smith brings stolen base upside to the table, while Ji-Man Choi and Joey Wendle provide plenty of pop from the left side of the plate.
Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)
# | Player | Bats | xwOBA | ISO | HC% | BB% | K% | GB% | FD Pos. | FD Sal. | DK Pos. | DK Sal. | FDRFT Pos. | FDRFT Sal. |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
1 | Mallex Smith | LEFT | 0.300 | 0.120 | 29.1% | 9.0% | 17.1% | 49.3% | OF | $3,100 | OF | $4,300 | CF | $8,600 |
2 | Matt Duffy | RIGHT | 0.315 | 0.080 | 31.6% | 7.0% | 16.3% | 51.7% | 3B | $3,300 | 3B | $4,000 | 3B | $7,300 |
3 | Ji-Man Choi | LEFT | 0.393 | 0.255 | 48.2% | 10.8% | 25.6% | 39.4% | 1B | $3,700 | 1B | $4,200 | IF/OF | $8,300 |
4 | Tommy Pham | RIGHT | 0.347 | 0.171 | 47.8% | 9.6% | 26.4% | 50.4% | OF | $3,800 | OF | $4,900 | CF | $8,700 |
5 | Joey Wendle | LEFT | 0.323 | 0.132 | 36.5% | 5.8% | 17.7% | 47.0% | 3B | $3,000 | 2B | $4,200 | 2B | $8,000 |
6 | Brandon Lowe | LEFT | 0.356 | 0.230 | 41.2% | 13.6% | 26.1% | 43.1% | 2B | $3,000 | 2B/OF | $4,100 | 2B | $8,100 |
7 | Kevin Kiermaier | LEFT | 0.286 | 0.175 | 35.7% | 6.1% | 22.5% | 47.9% | OF | $2,800 | OF | $4,400 | CF | $8,000 |
8 | Jake Bauers | LEFT | 0.344 | 0.203 | 43.4% | 15.1% | 25.5% | 43.3% | 1B | $2,900 | 1B/OF | $4,100 | 1B | $8,300 |
9 | Nick Ciuffo | LEFT | 0.232 | 0.267 | 16.7% | 15.0% | 20.0% | 33.3% | C | $2,000 | C | $3,000 | C | $5,900 |
Team Averages | 0.322 | 0.181 | 36.7% | 10.2% | 21.9% | 45.0% |
Elite Plays – Mallex Smith (GPP), Ji-Man Choi (GPP), Joey Wendle (GPP)
Secondary Plays – Mallex Smith (Cash), Ji-Man Choi (Cash), Joey Wendle (Cash), Tommy Pham
Stackability – YELLOW
Toronto
The Blue Jays will start the game against Diego Castillo and then face Jalen Beeks for the bulk of the game. I’m not in love with either matchup and Vegas seems to agree with me. The Blue Jays have a low implied run total, despite playing at home in a hitter-friendly ballpark. Lourdes Gurriel and Randal Grichuk are decent tournament plays, but I will likely have no exposure to this offense.
Projected Lineup (Splits vs. LH Pitching)
# | Player | Bats | xwOBA | ISO | HC% | BB% | K% | GB% | FD Pos. | FD Sal. | DK Pos. | DK Sal. | FDRFT Pos. | FDRFT Sal. |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
1 | Billy McKinney | LEFT | 0.366 | 0.364 | 33.3% | 8.3% | 16.7% | 22.2% | OF | $3,000 | OF | $3,600 | LF | $7,300 |
2 | Lourdes Gurriel | RIGHT | 0.394 | 0.145 | 27.5% | 4.5% | 16.7% | 47.1% | SS | $3,100 | 2B/SS | $3,800 | 2B | $7,200 |
3 | Kendrys Morales | SWITCH | 0.355 | 0.129 | 34.3% | 6.8% | 20.4% | 47.6% | 1B | $3,200 | 1B | $3,600 | 1B | $7,300 |
4 | Randal Grichuk | RIGHT | 0.351 | 0.198 | 34.9% | 6.1% | 28.0% | 38.4% | OF | $3,400 | OF | $4,300 | RF | $8,100 |
5 | Rowdy Tellez | LEFT | 0.202 | 0.000 | 0.0% | 16.7% | 66.7% | 0.0% | 1B | $2,700 | 1B | $3,900 | 1B | $7,300 |
6 | Kevin Pillar | RIGHT | 0.292 | 0.162 | 34.8% | 2.8% | 14.0% | 36.8% | OF | $3,000 | OF | $3,900 | CF | $7,300 |
7 | Aledmys Diaz | RIGHT | 0.314 | 0.202 | 28.6% | 5.9% | 16.8% | 41.6% | 3B | $3,100 | 3B/SS | $3,900 | SS | $7,800 |
8 | Devon Travis | RIGHT | 0.345 | 0.206 | 31.0% | 2.0% | 13.1% | 42.9% | 2B | $2,500 | 2B | $3,400 | 2B | $6,900 |
9 | Reese McGuire | LEFT | 0.069 | 0.000 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 33.3% | 100.0% | C | $2,200 | C | $3,400 | C | $6,800 |
Team Averages | 0.299 | 0.156 | 24.9% | 5.9% | 25.1% | 41.8% |
Elite Plays – None
Secondary Plays – Lourdes Gurriel, Randal Grichuk
Stackability – ORANGE
Boston at Cleveland – 7:10 PM ET
Boston | Cleveland | ||||||||||||||
Chris Sale | Trevor Bauer | ||||||||||||||
LEFT | RIGHT | ||||||||||||||
Vegas Moneyline | Vegas Over/Under | ||||||||||||||
CLE-130 | 7.0 | ||||||||||||||
Stats | wOBA | xwOBA | HC% | HR/9 | K% | GB% | Stats | wOBA | xwOBA | HC% | HR/9 | K% | GB% | ||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
SP vs. Left (2016-17) | 0.193 | 0.193 | 17.5% | 0.00 | 38.5% | 50.9% | SP vs. Left (2016-17) | 0.258 | 0.266 | 35.5% | 0.55 | 30.2% | 45.2% | ||
SP vs. Right (2016-17) | 0.239 | 0.243 | 27.3% | 0.74 | 38.2% | 43.9% | SP vs. Right (2016-17) | 0.261 | 0.275 | 36.5% | 0.32 | 32.8% | 43.1% |
Pitcher Grind Down
Chris Sale | |||||||||||
FanDuel | DraftKings | FantasyDraft | |||||||||
Salary: | $8,100 | Salary: | $10,800 | Salary: | $21,400 | ||||||
Salary Rank: | 10 of 28 | Salary Rank: | 3 of 28 | Salary Rank: | 3 of 28 | ||||||
Stats | Starts | SIERA | ERA | K% | BB% | GB% | HC% | SC% | aFV | SwS% | |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
2017 | 32 | 2.58 | 2.90 | 36.2% | 5.1% | 38.7% | 29.7% | 18.5% | 94.4 | 14.9% | |
2018 | 25 | 2.29 | 1.92 | 38.3% | 5.7% | 45.1% | 25.6% | 28.4% | 94.9 | 16.0% | |
L14 | 2 | 3.62 | 0.00 | 21.4% | 0.0% | 40.0% | 10.0% | 20.0% | 94.9 | 17.7% |
Sale only threw 42 pitches in his last start and isn’t expected to throw more than 65 tonight against the Indians. Not only is the pitch count a huge red flag, but he’s still priced up across the industry. He’s an easy fade against the Indians, whose projected lineup boasts a .334 xwOBA with a strikeout rate of only 19% against left-handed pitching.
Quick Breakdown: Avoid Sale in all formats.
Trevor Bauer | |||||||||||
FanDuel | DraftKings | FantasyDraft | |||||||||
Salary: | $7,700 | Salary: | $10,300 | Salary: | $19,400 | ||||||
Salary Rank: | 12 of 28 | Salary Rank: | 5 of 28 | Salary Rank: | 5 of 28 | ||||||
Stats | Starts | SIERA | ERA | K% | BB% | GB% | HC% | SC% | aFV | SwS% | |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
2017 | 31 | 3.80 | 4.19 | 26.2% | 8.0% | 46.4% | 34.4% | 15.0% | 94.0 | 9.2% | |
2018 | 25 | 3.19 | 2.22 | 31.5% | 8.2% | 44.2% | 36.0% | 16.0% | 94.6 | 13.0% | |
Bauer has missed over a month with a leg injury. The Indians are hoping to have him healthy for the postseason, but he will be eased back into action. He’s only expected to pitch a few innings tonight with Shane Bieber taking on the long reliever role. In a matchup against the Red Sox, we shouldn’t have interest in any of the Indians’ pitchers.
Quick Breakdown: Avoid Bieber in all formats.
Batter Grind Down
Boston
This is a game that I don’t want any exposure to. There are two elite pitchers on the mound, but both are going to be on pitch counts. I suppose we can look to the lefties from Boston in tournaments, as Shane Bieber is expected to pitch the bulk of the game for Cleveland. With that said, Andrew Benintendi and Mitch Moreland are deep tournament fliers at best.
Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)
# | Player | Bats | xwOBA | ISO | HC% | BB% | K% | GB% | FD Pos. | FD Sal. | DK Pos. | DK Sal. | FDRFT Pos. | FDRFT Sal. |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
1 | Mookie Betts | RIGHT | 0.442 | 0.257 | 43.8% | 11.8% | 14.6% | 33.7% | OF | $4,400 | OF | $5,400 | RF | $10,800 |
2 | Andrew Benintendi | LEFT | 0.393 | 0.189 | 29.6% | 12.1% | 13.8% | 38.8% | OF | $3,600 | OF | $4,200 | LF | $8,400 |
3 | J.D. Martinez | RIGHT | 0.448 | 0.325 | 44.4% | 11.1% | 22.4% | 44.1% | OF | $4,600 | OF | $5,000 | RF | $9,900 |
4 | Xander Bogaerts | RIGHT | 0.377 | 0.255 | 37.6% | 6.6% | 16.7% | 46.5% | SS | $3,800 | SS | $4,300 | SS | $8,300 |
5 | Mitch Moreland | LEFT | 0.407 | 0.212 | 36.7% | 10.8% | 21.3% | 40.9% | 1B | $3,000 | 1B | $3,500 | 1B | $6,800 |
6 | Rafael Devers | LEFT | 0.327 | 0.199 | 36.1% | 8.0% | 24.4% | 44.0% | 3B | $2,700 | 3B | $3,400 | 3B | $6,700 |
7 | Ian Kinsler | RIGHT | 0.332 | 0.179 | 30.7% | 8.2% | 12.3% | 36.6% | 2B | $2,400 | 2B | $3,400 | 2B | $6,400 |
8 | Sandy Leon | SWITCH | 0.252 | 0.116 | 26.0% | 3.1% | 26.8% | 40.5% | C | $2,100 | C | $2,500 | C | $5,000 |
9 | Jackie Bradley | LEFT | 0.381 | 0.183 | 42.1% | 10.0% | 22.4% | 38.6% | OF | $2,500 | OF | $3,600 | CF | $7,400 |
Team Averages | 0.373 | 0.213 | 36.3% | 9.1% | 19.4% | 40.4% |
Elite Plays – None
Secondary Plays – Andrew Benintendi, Mitch Moreland
Stackability – ORANGE
Cleveland
If we assume Chris Sale is going to throw 65 pitches, he will likely pitch four (maybe five) innings. That leaves us with four or five innings against the Red Sox bullpen, which is very good. I know the Indians are great offensively and they will be low owned in tournaments, but there are 13 other games to target hitters from tonight. For fantasy purposes, I will be pretending this game isn’t even on the schedule.
Projected Lineup (Splits vs. LH Pitching)
# | Player | Bats | xwOBA | ISO | HC% | BB% | K% | GB% | FD Pos. | FD Sal. | DK Pos. | DK Sal. | FDRFT Pos. | FDRFT Sal. |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
1 | Francisco Lindor | SWITCH | 0.402 | 0.214 | 42.5% | 11.4% | 11.9% | 45.1% | SS | $4,400 | SS | $4,900 | SS | $9,200 |
2 | Michael Brantley | LEFT | 0.333 | 0.102 | 26.2% | 4.1% | 10.3% | 49.2% | OF | $3,700 | OF | $3,900 | LF | $7,500 |
3 | Jose Ramirez | SWITCH | 0.344 | 0.217 | 35.5% | 7.6% | 9.3% | 37.1% | 2B | $4,300 | 2B/3B | $5,300 | IF/OF | $9,900 |
4 | Edwin Encarnacion | RIGHT | 0.379 | 0.180 | 45.4% | 16.4% | 18.7% | 29.1% | 1B | $3,800 | 1B | $3,900 | 1B | $7,500 |
5 | Josh Donaldson | RIGHT | 0.320 | 0.204 | 43.3% | 10.9% | 34.5% | 46.7% | 3B | $3,500 | 3B | $4,200 | 3B | $8,400 |
6 | Yandy Diaz | RIGHT | 0.298 | 0.081 | 35.5% | 2.6% | 15.8% | 54.8% | 1B | $2,600 | 1B/3B | $3,300 | 3B | $6,600 |
7 | Brandon Guyer | RIGHT | 0.349 | 0.218 | 35.0% | 9.9% | 17.4% | 36.3% | OF | $2,300 | OF | $3,000 | RF | $5,600 |
8 | Roberto Perez | RIGHT | 0.299 | 0.034 | 41.2% | 16.7% | 36.1% | 56.3% | C | $2,100 | C | $2,700 | C | $5,400 |
9 | Jason Kipnis | LEFT | 0.284 | 0.126 | 30.7% | 9.0% | 20.1% | 28.0% | OF | $3,200 | 2B/OF | $3,900 | 2B | $7,800 |
Team Averages | 0.334 | 0.153 | 37.3% | 9.8% | 19.3% | 42.5% |
Elite Plays – None
Secondary Plays – None
Stackability – ORANGE
Note: Unless noted, all statistics in the Grind Down are from the 2018 season.