MLB Grind Down: Friday, September 21st

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The RotoGrinders MLB Grind Down will give you an in-depth analysis into the upcoming MLB schedule. This article will break down the numbers for every single game and give you analysis on which trends you can exploit. While matchups are a major factor in daily fantasy baseball, there are plenty of other factors to consider such as injuries, weather, and salaries.

The analysis should point you in the right direction, but it is still up to you to decipher the information and make your own selections. No sport has more variance than baseball. The best choice is not always the right choice but following the trends will win you money over time.

Note: As always, if you want to try a new DFS site, be sure to click through a RotoGrinders link and use our DraftKings promo code, FanDuel promo code, and FantasyDraft promo code to receive the best perks in the industry.



Stackability Rating System:

GREEN – A viable full stack in cash games and GPPs.
YELLOW – A viable mini-stack in cash games and full stack in GPPs.
ORANGE – A viable stack in large field GPPs.
RED – Not a recommended stack for cash games or GPPs.


Implied Run Totals


Ballpark Ratings


Baltimore at NY Yankees – 7:05 PM ET

Baltimore NY Yankees
Article Image Yefry Ramirez Article Image CC Sabathia
RIGHT LEFT
Vegas Moneyline Vegas Over/Under
NYY-320 9.0
Stats wOBA xwOBA HC% HR/9 K% GB% Stats wOBA xwOBA HC% HR/9 K% GB%
SP vs. Left (2016-17) 0.363 0.331 28.6% 0.69 23.6% 27.9% SP vs. Left (2016-17) 0.305 0.274 18.0% 1.05 26.6% 54.1%
SP vs. Right (2016-17) 0.305 0.306 27.8% 1.52 20.5% 43.2% SP vs. Right (2016-17) 0.323 0.313 30.8% 1.24 19.7% 41.9%

Pitcher Grind Down

Yefry Ramirez
Article Image FanDuel DraftKings FantasyDraft
Salary: $5,800 Salary: $4,800 Salary: $9,100
Salary Rank: 25 of 28 Salary Rank: 24 of 28 Salary Rank: 24 of 28
Stats Starts SIERA ERA K% BB% GB% HC% SC% aFV SwS%
2018 10 4.69 5.50 22.1% 12.1% 36.5% 28.1% 23.1% 92.5 11.4%
L14 1 3.01 1.00 33.3% 9.1% 38.9% 5.3% 42.1% 93.5 12.3%

We made it to another Friday. We kick off tonight’s 14-game slate with the Orioles and Yankees. Ramirez has pitched well recently, but he has a high fly-ball rate and he’s facing the Yankees in the hitter-friendly Yankee Stadium. It’s no surprise that New York has the highest implied run total on the board. Ramirez has significantly more downside than upside in this matchup.

Quick Breakdown: Avoid Ramirez in all formats.

CC Sabathia
Article Image FanDuel DraftKings FantasyDraft
Salary: $7,500 Salary: $7,500 Salary: $14,500
Salary Rank: 14 of 28 Salary Rank: 14 of 28 Salary Rank: 15 of 28
Stats Starts SIERA ERA K% BB% GB% HC% SC% aFV SwS%
2017 27 4.45 3.69 19.3% 8.0% 49.9% 27.2% 24.1% 90.9 8.9%
2018 27 4.26 3.80 20.9% 7.7% 43.6% 29.0% 24.2% 90.3 10.9%
L14 3 4.37 9.28 18.5% 5.6% 35.0% 24.4% 14.6% 89.7 12.5%

Sabathia is never a sexy play in DFS, but he’s one of the top point-per-dollar targets on the board tonight. His numbers as a whole are solid — 4.26 SIERA with a 21% strikeout rate and a 24% soft contact rate. He’s listed as a massive -320 favorite against the Orioles, whose projected lineup has an average xwOBA of only .292 with a strikeout rate of 26% against left-handed pitching. He’s been dominant in this matchup in the past, he offers a high floor/ceiling combination, and he’s cheap across the industry.

Quick Breakdown: Sabathia is an elite play in all formats.

Batter Grind Down

Baltimore

The Orioles are playing in a hitter-friendly ballpark, but they draw a difficult matchup against CC Sabathia. While his strikeout rate is mediocre, he owns an elite soft contact rate and has held both left and right-handed hitters under a .315 xwOBA this season. With so much interest in Sabathia on my end, I will naturally be fading the Orioles’ offense completely.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. LH Pitching)

# Player Bats xwOBA ISO HC% BB% K% GB% FD Pos. FD Sal. DK Pos. DK Sal. FDRFT Pos. FDRFT Sal.
1 Cedric Mullins LEFT 0.228 0.000 14.3% 16.1% 38.7% 50.0% OF $3,000 OF $4,200 CF $8,400
2 Joey Rickard RIGHT 0.276 0.217 29.8% 6.8% 29.7% 29.8% OF $2,700 OF $3,700 RF $7,200
3 Jonathan Villar SWITCH 0.331 0.181 42.4% 5.0% 27.7% 51.6% 2B $3,300 2B $4,200 2B $8,400
4 Adam Jones RIGHT 0.334 0.114 32.1% 2.6% 8.4% 40.0% OF $3,100 OF $3,900 CF $7,200
5 Trey Mancini RIGHT 0.285 0.123 22.8% 7.1% 24.3% 66.7% OF $2,900 1B/OF $3,700 IF/OF $7,200
6 Tim Beckham RIGHT 0.305 0.169 30.2% 9.2% 26.5% 45.2% SS $2,500 3B/SS $3,300 SS $6,700
7 Renato Nunez RIGHT 0.271 0.092 25.0% 6.9% 25.0% 39.6% 3B $2,400 3B $3,600 IF/OF $7,300
8 Breyvic Valera SWITCH 0.334 0.000 50.0% 15.4% 23.1% 57.1% 2B $2,000 2B $3,400 2B $6,700
9 Austin Wynns RIGHT 0.262 0.000 16.0% 0.0% 30.6% 48.0% C $2,100 C $3,000 C $5,600
Team Averages 0.292 0.100 29.2% 7.7% 26.0% 47.6%

Elite Plays – None

Secondary Plays – None

StackabilityRED

NY Yankees

The Yankees have the highest implied run total on the board tonight, which is impressive considering the fact that there are two hittable pitchers squaring off in Texas. The Yankees draw an exploitable matchup against Yefry Ramirez, who has a high walk rate and a high fly-ball rate. If they can get to him early, they will feast on a very hittable Orioles’ bullpen. A full stack is viable in tournaments, while Andrew McCutchen, Aaron Judge, Giancarlo Stanton, Aaron Hicks, and Gary Sanchez all stand out as elite plays at their respective positions. Stanton always sees a boost when facing a fly-ball pitcher and he’s coming off of the big game last night where he hit the go-ahead grand slam.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

# Player Bats xwOBA ISO HC% BB% K% GB% FD Pos. FD Sal. DK Pos. DK Sal. FDRFT Pos. FDRFT Sal.
1 Andrew McCutchen RIGHT 0.363 0.156 44.4% 14.4% 21.9% 40.6% OF $3,700 OF $4,300 RF $8,000
2 Aaron Judge RIGHT 0.396 0.261 48.0% 12.4% 31.1% 45.8% OF $4,300 OF $5,500 RF $10,100
3 Didi Gregorius LEFT 0.347 0.258 37.9% 9.2% 11.8% 36.4% SS $3,900 SS $5,200 SS $9,800
4 Giancarlo Stanton RIGHT 0.326 0.206 38.1% 9.0% 31.9% 45.8% OF $4,500 OF $4,800 RF $9,200
5 Aaron Hicks SWITCH 0.379 0.183 37.1% 17.0% 19.3% 42.6% OF $3,200 OF $4,400 CF $8,200
6 Miguel Andujar RIGHT 0.356 0.223 37.2% 3.5% 16.5% 47.0% 3B $4,400 3B $4,600 3B $8,900
7 Gary Sanchez RIGHT 0.341 0.213 36.3% 10.4% 25.1% 46.3% C $3,300 C $4,100 C $8,400
8 Luke Voit RIGHT 0.443 0.317 42.9% 14.9% 27.0% 41.9% 1B $3,800 1B $4,100 1B $8,000
9 Gleyber Torres RIGHT 0.354 0.173 35.4% 8.5% 23.8% 34.1% 2B $3,600 2B $4,000 2B $7,500
Team Averages 0.367 0.221 39.7% 11.0% 23.2% 42.3%

Elite PlaysAndrew McCutchen, Aaron Judge, Giancarlo Stanton, Aaron Hicks, Gary Sanchez (DK)

Secondary PlaysDidi Gregorius, Miguel Andujar

StackabilityGREEN


Milwaukee at Pittsburgh – 7:05 PM ET

Milwaukee Pittsburgh
Article Image Jhoulys Chacin Article Image Ivan Nova
RIGHT RIGHT
Vegas Moneyline Vegas Over/Under
MIL-125 8.0
Stats wOBA xwOBA HC% HR/9 K% GB% Stats wOBA xwOBA HC% HR/9 K% GB%
SP vs. Left (2016-17) 0.334 0.360 39.7% 0.86 15.8% 42.1% SP vs. Left (2016-17) 0.346 0.378 31.9% 1.63 12.3% 42.1%
SP vs. Right (2016-17) 0.243 0.291 33.5% 0.67 24.5% 42.9% SP vs. Right (2016-17) 0.306 0.320 32.1% 1.33 21.2% 48.8%

Pitcher Grind Down

Jhoulys Chacin
Article Image FanDuel DraftKings FantasyDraft
Salary: $7,400 Salary: $8,100 Salary: $16,200
Salary Rank: 15 of 28 Salary Rank: 12 of 28 Salary Rank: 11 of 28
Stats Starts SIERA ERA K% BB% GB% HC% SC% aFV SwS%
2017 32 4.63 3.89 20.0% 9.4% 49.1% 28.5% 20.2% 91.4 7.9%
2018 32 4.51 3.54 20.1% 8.9% 42.5% 36.8% 18.4% 90.1 8.6%
L14 3 4.03 3.68 24.1% 8.6% 37.8% 41.0% 20.5% 91.0 9.7%

Chacin isn’t a pitcher that I target often in DFS. He has a mediocre strikeout rate and his hard contact rate is a lot higher than it was a year ago. He basically need to be facing a right-handed heavy offense in a pitcher-friendly ballpark to warrant consideration. He doesn’t get that tonight, as he faces a low-strikeout Pirates’ offense that is loaded with left-handed hitters.

Quick Breakdown: Avoid Chacin in all formats.

Ivan Nova
Article Image FanDuel DraftKings FantasyDraft
Salary: $7,200 Salary: $7,000 Salary: $13,500
Salary Rank: 17 of 28 Salary Rank: 17 of 28 Salary Rank: 18 of 28
Stats Starts SIERA ERA K% BB% GB% HC% SC% aFV SwS%
2017 31 4.45 4.14 16.7% 4.6% 45.7% 34.8% 16.6% 92.8 8.4%
2018 27 4.36 4.07 16.9% 4.8% 45.4% 32.0% 17.0% 92.9 8.7%
L14 2 3.08 0.75 28.9% 4.4% 43.3% 20.0% 13.3% 92.1 9.6%

Nova is basically a carbon-copy of Chacin, only his strikeout rate is 3% lower. He needs to be facing a right-handed heavy offense in a pitcher-friendly ballpark to warrant consideration in DFS and even then, he has limited upside. I’m not buying into the recent form (29% strikeout rate in his last three starts) and I’m not a fan of his matchup against the Brewers, whose projected lineup includes four lefties with a .360+ xwOBA against right-handed pitching this season.

Quick Breakdown: Avoid Nova in all formats.

Batter Grind Down

Milwaukee

The Brewers are playing on the road in a pitcher-friendly ballpark, so we should temper our expectations. With that said, Ivan Nova has allowed a .378 xwOBA and a 1.63 HR/9 to left-handed hitters this season. The Brewers have no shortage of left-handed power, as Curtis Granderson, Christian Yelich, Travis Shaw, and Mike Moustakas all boast a .360+ xwOBA and a .205+ ISO against right-handed pitching this season.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

# Player Bats xwOBA ISO HC% BB% K% GB% FD Pos. FD Sal. DK Pos. DK Sal. FDRFT Pos. FDRFT Sal.
1 Curtis Granderson LEFT 0.360 0.209 37.3% 13.0% 25.5% 31.3% OF $3,500 OF $4,400 RF $8,000
2 Christian Yelich LEFT 0.422 0.257 48.4% 9.6% 22.1% 50.7% OF $5,100 OF $5,800 CF $10,200
3 Lorenzo Cain RIGHT 0.329 0.098 36.2% 11.5% 16.9% 59.8% OF $3,500 OF $4,100 CF $8,300
4 Travis Shaw LEFT 0.398 0.291 42.3% 13.4% 17.9% 32.3% 2B $4,100 2B/3B $4,300 3B $8,500
5 Jesus Aguilar RIGHT 0.384 0.275 45.7% 9.8% 25.7% 31.6% 1B $4,000 1B $4,500 1B $9,400
6 Mike Moustakas LEFT 0.363 0.239 44.0% 9.0% 17.3% 29.8% 3B $3,700 3B $4,200 3B $8,000
7 Jonathan Schoop RIGHT 0.276 0.220 26.7% 2.5% 24.2% 45.1% 2B $2,900 2B $3,700 2B $7,500
8 Manny Pina RIGHT 0.333 0.154 34.7% 6.2% 19.3% 39.2% C $2,500 C $3,400 C $6,500
9 Jhoulys Chacin RIGHT 0.163 0.000 22.9% 4.2% 22.9% 63.3% P $7,400 P $8,100 P $16,200
Team Averages 0.336 0.194 37.6% 8.8% 21.3% 42.6%

Elite PlaysTravis Shaw, Christian Yelich (GPP)

Secondary PlaysChristian Yelich (Cash), Curtis Granderson, Mike Moustakas (GPP)

StackabilityORANGE / YELLOW

Pittsburgh

The Pirates are underdogs in a game that features a total of only 8.0 runs, so like the Brewers, we should temper our expectations for this offense. Their matchup against Jhoulys Chacin favors batters from the left side of the plate. On the season, Chacin has allowed a .360 xwOBA and a 40% hard contact rate to left-handed hitters. At the very least, Adam Frazier, Josh Bell, and Corey Dickerson deserve consideration as low-owned tournament plays.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

# Player Bats xwOBA ISO HC% BB% K% GB% FD Pos. FD Sal. DK Pos. DK Sal. FDRFT Pos. FDRFT Sal.
1 Adam Frazier LEFT 0.328 0.180 33.5% 8.6% 14.1% 49.5% 2B $3,500 2B/OF $4,100 IF/OF $8,400
2 Starling Marte RIGHT 0.332 0.172 33.8% 4.6% 18.2% 48.9% OF $3,700 OF $4,700 CF $9,000
3 Josh Bell SWITCH 0.359 0.143 32.9% 13.3% 16.6% 51.1% 1B $3,300 1B $4,100 1B $8,500
4 Francisco Cervelli RIGHT 0.373 0.180 34.4% 11.4% 20.8% 39.0% C $3,100 C $3,600 C $7,700
5 Corey Dickerson LEFT 0.353 0.189 36.8% 4.0% 13.7% 35.3% OF $3,400 OF $4,300 LF $8,300
6 Pablo Reyes RIGHT 0.284 0.091 14.3% 0.0% 36.4% 14.3% OF $2,200 3B/OF $4,100 2B $8,200
7 Colin Moran LEFT 0.348 0.129 32.6% 7.8% 16.2% 45.0% 3B $2,800 3B $3,700 3B $7,200
8 Kevin Newman RIGHT 0.238 0.022 11.4% 4.0% 24.0% 54.3% SS $2,300 2B/SS $3,500 SS $6,700
9 Ivan Nova RIGHT 0.099 0.000 10.5% 0.0% 50.0% 68.8% P $7,200 P $7,000 P $13,500
Team Averages 0.302 0.123 26.7% 6.0% 23.3% 45.1%

Elite Plays – None

Secondary PlaysAdam Frazier (GPP), Josh Bell (GPP), Corey Dickerson (GPP)

StackabilityORANGE / YELLOW


NY Mets at Washington – 7:05 PM ET

NY Mets Washington
Article Image Jacob deGrom Article Image Joe Ross
RIGHT RIGHT
Vegas Moneyline Vegas Over/Under
NYM-133 8.0
Stats wOBA xwOBA HC% HR/9 K% GB% Stats wOBA xwOBA HC% HR/9 K% GB%
SP vs. Left (2016-17) 0.266 0.267 23.9% 0.54 29.6% 41.6% SP vs. Left (2016-17) 0.351 0.398 0.0% 0.00 0.0% 37.5%
SP vs. Right (2016-17) 0.209 0.247 31.3% 0.35 34.4% 48.2% SP vs. Right (2016-17) 0.236 0.388 22.2% 0.00 0.0% 11.1%

Pitcher Grind Down

Jacob deGrom
Article Image FanDuel DraftKings FantasyDraft
Salary: $12,100 Salary: $12,400 Salary: $24,300
Salary Rank: 1 of 28 Salary Rank: 1 of 28 Salary Rank: 1 of 28
Stats Starts SIERA ERA K% BB% GB% HC% SC% aFV SwS%
2017 31 3.44 3.53 28.9% 7.1% 45.3% 31.9% 21.3% 95.2 13.3%
2018 30 2.84 1.78 31.9% 5.7% 44.7% 27.4% 24.3% 95.9 15.1%
L14 3 2.45 2.70 36.5% 5.4% 39.5% 20.9% 25.6% 96.8 14.9%

DeGrom broke the major league record for most consecutive quality starts and he’ll look to extend his streak tonight against the Nationals. The Mets have nothing to play for, so they might as well try to help deGrom break records and win the Cy Young. His numbers on the season are nothing short of incredible — 2.84 SIERA with a strikeout rate of 32% and a soft contact rate of 24%. This isn’t a great matchup on paper, but in two starts against the Nationals this season, deGrom has averaged 26 fantasy points per game (DK scoring).

Quick Breakdown: If we take salaries out of the equation, deGrom is the top pitcher in the slate. However, I’m looking to heavily target the mid-range of pitchers.

Joe Ross
Article Image FanDuel DraftKings FantasyDraft
Salary: $6,200 Salary: $5,500 Salary: $11,100
Salary Rank: 24 of 28 Salary Rank: 23 of 28 Salary Rank: 23 of 28
Stats Starts SIERA ERA K% BB% GB% HC% SC% aFV SwS%
2017 13 4.28 5.01 21.1% 6.2% 37.5% 36.9% 19.3% 91.4 10.1%
2018 1 8.30 3.60 0.0% 10.0% 23.5% 11.8% 41.2% 93.6 8.1%
L14 1 8.30 3.60 0.0% 10.0% 23.5% 11.8% 41.2% 93.6 8.1%

Ross didn’t record a single strikeout in his last start. I know because I rostered him and was checking the game on my phone all night. He’s had good velocity (both in his one start and in the minors) and he’s coming off of a 2017 season where he posted a 21% strikeout rate. While he should be fine in the long run, I’ll probably wait until next year before I target him in DFS again. The Mets continue to make life tough on right-handed pitchers.

Quick Breakdown: Avoid Ross in all formats.

Batter Grind Down

NY Mets

The Mets are favored tonight, but they are playing on the road in a pitcher-friendly ballpark. Joe Ross is a capable right-handed pitcher, but he has struggled with left-handed hitters throughout his career. I will likely be fading the Mets completely, but I won’t talk anyone out of playing these lefties in tournaments. Michael Conforto, Jay Bruce, and Brandon Nimmo all bat from the left side and all boast a .345+ xwOBA against right-handed pitching this season.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

# Player Bats xwOBA ISO HC% BB% K% GB% FD Pos. FD Sal. DK Pos. DK Sal. FDRFT Pos. FDRFT Sal.
1 Amed Rosario RIGHT 0.291 0.138 28.0% 4.8% 18.9% 49.2% SS $2,800 SS $3,800 SS $7,700
2 Jeff McNeil LEFT 0.318 0.157 29.5% 4.1% 9.6% 39.5% 2B $3,400 2B $4,000 2B $7,700
3 Michael Conforto LEFT 0.345 0.180 36.5% 14.8% 22.2% 40.9% OF $3,300 OF $4,600 LF $9,200
4 Jay Bruce LEFT 0.372 0.161 35.1% 11.9% 18.7% 29.8% OF $2,500 1B/OF $3,600 RF $7,300
5 Todd Frazier RIGHT 0.347 0.221 43.7% 9.2% 20.7% 34.5% 3B $2,700 3B $3,800 3B $7,500
6 Dominic Smith LEFT 0.278 0.235 39.1% 2.0% 33.7% 28.1% 1B $2,000 1B/OF $3,600 IF/OF $7,600
7 Brandon Nimmo LEFT 0.379 0.258 36.6% 14.9% 23.2% 40.3% OF $3,600 OF $4,700 LF $9,300
8 Tomas Nido RIGHT 0.240 0.081 33.3% 3.1% 31.3% 50.0% C $2,000 C $3,000 C $5,700
9 Jacob deGrom RIGHT 0.184 0.028 0.0% 5.1% 33.3% 50.0% P $12,100 P $12,400 P $24,300
Team Averages 0.306 0.162 31.3% 7.8% 23.5% 40.3%

Elite Plays – None

Secondary PlaysMichael Conforto (GPP), Jay Bruce (GPP), Brandon Nimmo (GPP)

StackabilityORANGE / YELLOW

Washington

The Nationals draw one of the worst matchups a team could possibly have. Jacob deGrom has elite strikeout and soft contact rates and has held both left and right-handed hitters under a .270 xwOBA this season. While he’s not the best at holding runners, you have to get on base before you can steal a bag. That could be an issue for the Nationals tonight.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

# Player Bats xwOBA ISO HC% BB% K% GB% FD Pos. FD Sal. DK Pos. DK Sal. FDRFT Pos. FDRFT Sal.
1 Adam Eaton LEFT 0.354 0.124 34.9% 9.8% 15.5% 46.2% OF $3,400 OF $4,000 RF $7,700
2 Trea Turner RIGHT 0.316 0.136 30.3% 8.2% 20.1% 52.6% SS $3,600 SS $4,200 IF/OF $8,100
3 Bryce Harper LEFT 0.395 0.266 42.2% 18.7% 24.5% 38.2% OF $4,200 OF $4,500 RF $8,900
4 Anthony Rendon RIGHT 0.386 0.195 36.1% 8.3% 13.1% 35.6% 3B $4,100 3B $4,100 3B $8,100
5 Juan Soto LEFT 0.393 0.225 35.4% 18.6% 19.8% 50.0% OF $3,800 OF $4,300 LF $8,500
6 Ryan Zimmerman RIGHT 0.379 0.212 37.6% 7.1% 17.1% 51.0% 1B $3,000 1B $3,500 1B $6,300
7 Matt Wieters SWITCH 0.309 0.128 33.3% 7.3% 14.6% 37.7% C $2,200 C $2,800 C $5,700
8 Wilmer Difo SWITCH 0.296 0.144 21.8% 8.3% 16.9% 41.6% 2B $2,600 2B/3B $2,900 2B $5,800
9 Joe Ross RIGHT P $6,200 P $5,500 P $11,100
Team Averages 0.354 0.179 34.0% 10.8% 17.7% 44.1%

Elite Plays – None

Secondary PlaysTrea Turner (GPP)

StackabilityORANGE


Tampa Bay at Toronto – 7:07 PM ET

Tampa Bay Toronto
Article Image Jalen Beeks Article Image Sean Reid-Foley
LEFT RIGHT
Vegas Moneyline Vegas Over/Under
TB -120 8.5
Stats wOBA xwOBA HC% HR/9 K% GB% Stats wOBA xwOBA HC% HR/9 K% GB%
SP vs. Left (2016-17) 0.300 0.389 44.8% 0.90 23.3% 34.5% SP vs. Left (2016-17) 0.323 0.369 30.6% 1.88 23.4% 30.6%
SP vs. Right (2016-17) 0.351 0.320 22.7% 0.56 18.9% 51.6% SP vs. Right (2016-17) 0.381 0.323 35.5% 2.31 32.7% 45.2%

Pitcher Grind Down

Jalen Beeks
Article Image FanDuel DraftKings FantasyDraft
Salary: $5,700 Salary: $6,300 Salary: $12,800
Salary Rank: 26 of 28 Salary Rank: 21 of 28 Salary Rank: 21 of 28
Stats Starts SIERA ERA K% BB% GB% HC% SC% aFV SwS%
2018 1 4.38 5.57 19.9% 11.3% 47.6% 27.8% 18.3% 91.8 11.7%
L14 0 2.27 1.80 31.8% 4.6% 58.3% 15.4% 15.4% 91.5 15.9%

Diego Castillo will get the start tonight, but Beeks will get most of the work. For that reason, I decided to include him in the tables above since he’s the only viable pitcher to target from the Rays tonight. Beeks has been solid since joining the Rays and if this team can build a lead, he would be in line for the win. I’ve been using these Rays’ long relievers often in DFS, but the mid-range for pitching is loaded tonight.

Quick Breakdown: Beeks isn’t a terrible play, but he isn’t going to make the final cut on any of my lineups.

Sean Reid-Foley
Article Image FanDuel DraftKings FantasyDraft
Salary: $6,600 Salary: $6,400 Salary: $13,000
Salary Rank: 22 of 28 Salary Rank: 20 of 28 Salary Rank: 20 of 28
Stats Starts SIERA ERA K% BB% GB% HC% SC% aFV SwS%
2018 5 4.36 5.54 27.6% 13.8% 37.3% 32.8% 20.9% 93.9 11.4%
L14 2 5.21 5.59 29.6% 20.5% 40.9% 18.2% 31.8% 94.1 9.6%

Reid-Foley has made five major league starts this season and he owns a 28% strikeout rate. While that’s impressive, I’m scared that everyone is going to flock to him as a cheap DFS play. Keep in mind that we are dealing with a small sample size and that he owns a 14% walk rate. Looking at his minor league numbers, Reid-Foley certainly has talent, but I don’t mind taking a stance against him tonight. The Rays have been hitting the ball well recently and have a left-handed heavy lineup.

Quick Breakdown: I personally will be avoiding Reid-Foley in all formats.

Batter Grind Down

Tampa Bay

The Rays see a significant ballpark boost playing in Toronto and they’ve been one of the hottest offenses in baseball over the last two weeks. With everyone gravitating toward Sean Reid-Foley as a cheap SP2 tonight, Tampa Bay should fly under the radar even though they are the team that is favored tonight. We are dealing with a small sample size, but Reid-Foley has allowed a .369 xwOBA to lefties this season. Mallex Smith brings stolen base upside to the table, while Ji-Man Choi and Joey Wendle provide plenty of pop from the left side of the plate.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

# Player Bats xwOBA ISO HC% BB% K% GB% FD Pos. FD Sal. DK Pos. DK Sal. FDRFT Pos. FDRFT Sal.
1 Mallex Smith LEFT 0.300 0.120 29.1% 9.0% 17.1% 49.3% OF $3,100 OF $4,300 CF $8,600
2 Matt Duffy RIGHT 0.315 0.080 31.6% 7.0% 16.3% 51.7% 3B $3,300 3B $4,000 3B $7,300
3 Ji-Man Choi LEFT 0.393 0.255 48.2% 10.8% 25.6% 39.4% 1B $3,700 1B $4,200 IF/OF $8,300
4 Tommy Pham RIGHT 0.347 0.171 47.8% 9.6% 26.4% 50.4% OF $3,800 OF $4,900 CF $8,700
5 Joey Wendle LEFT 0.323 0.132 36.5% 5.8% 17.7% 47.0% 3B $3,000 2B $4,200 2B $8,000
6 Brandon Lowe LEFT 0.356 0.230 41.2% 13.6% 26.1% 43.1% 2B $3,000 2B/OF $4,100 2B $8,100
7 Kevin Kiermaier LEFT 0.286 0.175 35.7% 6.1% 22.5% 47.9% OF $2,800 OF $4,400 CF $8,000
8 Jake Bauers LEFT 0.344 0.203 43.4% 15.1% 25.5% 43.3% 1B $2,900 1B/OF $4,100 1B $8,300
9 Nick Ciuffo LEFT 0.232 0.267 16.7% 15.0% 20.0% 33.3% C $2,000 C $3,000 C $5,900
Team Averages 0.322 0.181 36.7% 10.2% 21.9% 45.0%

Elite PlaysMallex Smith (GPP), Ji-Man Choi (GPP), Joey Wendle (GPP)

Secondary PlaysMallex Smith (Cash), Ji-Man Choi (Cash), Joey Wendle (Cash), Tommy Pham

StackabilityYELLOW

Toronto

The Blue Jays will start the game against Diego Castillo and then face Jalen Beeks for the bulk of the game. I’m not in love with either matchup and Vegas seems to agree with me. The Blue Jays have a low implied run total, despite playing at home in a hitter-friendly ballpark. Lourdes Gurriel and Randal Grichuk are decent tournament plays, but I will likely have no exposure to this offense.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. LH Pitching)

# Player Bats xwOBA ISO HC% BB% K% GB% FD Pos. FD Sal. DK Pos. DK Sal. FDRFT Pos. FDRFT Sal.
1 Billy McKinney LEFT 0.366 0.364 33.3% 8.3% 16.7% 22.2% OF $3,000 OF $3,600 LF $7,300
2 Lourdes Gurriel RIGHT 0.394 0.145 27.5% 4.5% 16.7% 47.1% SS $3,100 2B/SS $3,800 2B $7,200
3 Kendrys Morales SWITCH 0.355 0.129 34.3% 6.8% 20.4% 47.6% 1B $3,200 1B $3,600 1B $7,300
4 Randal Grichuk RIGHT 0.351 0.198 34.9% 6.1% 28.0% 38.4% OF $3,400 OF $4,300 RF $8,100
5 Rowdy Tellez LEFT 0.202 0.000 0.0% 16.7% 66.7% 0.0% 1B $2,700 1B $3,900 1B $7,300
6 Kevin Pillar RIGHT 0.292 0.162 34.8% 2.8% 14.0% 36.8% OF $3,000 OF $3,900 CF $7,300
7 Aledmys Diaz RIGHT 0.314 0.202 28.6% 5.9% 16.8% 41.6% 3B $3,100 3B/SS $3,900 SS $7,800
8 Devon Travis RIGHT 0.345 0.206 31.0% 2.0% 13.1% 42.9% 2B $2,500 2B $3,400 2B $6,900
9 Reese McGuire LEFT 0.069 0.000 0.0% 0.0% 33.3% 100.0% C $2,200 C $3,400 C $6,800
Team Averages 0.299 0.156 24.9% 5.9% 25.1% 41.8%

Elite Plays – None

Secondary PlaysLourdes Gurriel, Randal Grichuk

StackabilityORANGE


Boston at Cleveland – 7:10 PM ET

Boston Cleveland
Article Image Chris Sale Article Image Trevor Bauer
LEFT RIGHT
Vegas Moneyline Vegas Over/Under
CLE-130 7.0
Stats wOBA xwOBA HC% HR/9 K% GB% Stats wOBA xwOBA HC% HR/9 K% GB%
SP vs. Left (2016-17) 0.193 0.193 17.5% 0.00 38.5% 50.9% SP vs. Left (2016-17) 0.258 0.266 35.5% 0.55 30.2% 45.2%
SP vs. Right (2016-17) 0.239 0.243 27.3% 0.74 38.2% 43.9% SP vs. Right (2016-17) 0.261 0.275 36.5% 0.32 32.8% 43.1%

Pitcher Grind Down

Chris Sale
Article Image FanDuel DraftKings FantasyDraft
Salary: $8,100 Salary: $10,800 Salary: $21,400
Salary Rank: 10 of 28 Salary Rank: 3 of 28 Salary Rank: 3 of 28
Stats Starts SIERA ERA K% BB% GB% HC% SC% aFV SwS%
2017 32 2.58 2.90 36.2% 5.1% 38.7% 29.7% 18.5% 94.4 14.9%
2018 25 2.29 1.92 38.3% 5.7% 45.1% 25.6% 28.4% 94.9 16.0%
L14 2 3.62 0.00 21.4% 0.0% 40.0% 10.0% 20.0% 94.9 17.7%

Sale only threw 42 pitches in his last start and isn’t expected to throw more than 65 tonight against the Indians. Not only is the pitch count a huge red flag, but he’s still priced up across the industry. He’s an easy fade against the Indians, whose projected lineup boasts a .334 xwOBA with a strikeout rate of only 19% against left-handed pitching.

Quick Breakdown: Avoid Sale in all formats.

Trevor Bauer
Article Image FanDuel DraftKings FantasyDraft
Salary: $7,700 Salary: $10,300 Salary: $19,400
Salary Rank: 12 of 28 Salary Rank: 5 of 28 Salary Rank: 5 of 28
Stats Starts SIERA ERA K% BB% GB% HC% SC% aFV SwS%
2017 31 3.80 4.19 26.2% 8.0% 46.4% 34.4% 15.0% 94.0 9.2%
2018 25 3.19 2.22 31.5% 8.2% 44.2% 36.0% 16.0% 94.6 13.0%

Bauer has missed over a month with a leg injury. The Indians are hoping to have him healthy for the postseason, but he will be eased back into action. He’s only expected to pitch a few innings tonight with Shane Bieber taking on the long reliever role. In a matchup against the Red Sox, we shouldn’t have interest in any of the Indians’ pitchers.

Quick Breakdown: Avoid Bieber in all formats.

Batter Grind Down

Boston

This is a game that I don’t want any exposure to. There are two elite pitchers on the mound, but both are going to be on pitch counts. I suppose we can look to the lefties from Boston in tournaments, as Shane Bieber is expected to pitch the bulk of the game for Cleveland. With that said, Andrew Benintendi and Mitch Moreland are deep tournament fliers at best.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

# Player Bats xwOBA ISO HC% BB% K% GB% FD Pos. FD Sal. DK Pos. DK Sal. FDRFT Pos. FDRFT Sal.
1 Mookie Betts RIGHT 0.442 0.257 43.8% 11.8% 14.6% 33.7% OF $4,400 OF $5,400 RF $10,800
2 Andrew Benintendi LEFT 0.393 0.189 29.6% 12.1% 13.8% 38.8% OF $3,600 OF $4,200 LF $8,400
3 J.D. Martinez RIGHT 0.448 0.325 44.4% 11.1% 22.4% 44.1% OF $4,600 OF $5,000 RF $9,900
4 Xander Bogaerts RIGHT 0.377 0.255 37.6% 6.6% 16.7% 46.5% SS $3,800 SS $4,300 SS $8,300
5 Mitch Moreland LEFT 0.407 0.212 36.7% 10.8% 21.3% 40.9% 1B $3,000 1B $3,500 1B $6,800
6 Rafael Devers LEFT 0.327 0.199 36.1% 8.0% 24.4% 44.0% 3B $2,700 3B $3,400 3B $6,700
7 Ian Kinsler RIGHT 0.332 0.179 30.7% 8.2% 12.3% 36.6% 2B $2,400 2B $3,400 2B $6,400
8 Sandy Leon SWITCH 0.252 0.116 26.0% 3.1% 26.8% 40.5% C $2,100 C $2,500 C $5,000
9 Jackie Bradley LEFT 0.381 0.183 42.1% 10.0% 22.4% 38.6% OF $2,500 OF $3,600 CF $7,400
Team Averages 0.373 0.213 36.3% 9.1% 19.4% 40.4%

Elite Plays – None

Secondary PlaysAndrew Benintendi, Mitch Moreland

StackabilityORANGE

Cleveland

If we assume Chris Sale is going to throw 65 pitches, he will likely pitch four (maybe five) innings. That leaves us with four or five innings against the Red Sox bullpen, which is very good. I know the Indians are great offensively and they will be low owned in tournaments, but there are 13 other games to target hitters from tonight. For fantasy purposes, I will be pretending this game isn’t even on the schedule.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. LH Pitching)

# Player Bats xwOBA ISO HC% BB% K% GB% FD Pos. FD Sal. DK Pos. DK Sal. FDRFT Pos. FDRFT Sal.
1 Francisco Lindor SWITCH 0.402 0.214 42.5% 11.4% 11.9% 45.1% SS $4,400 SS $4,900 SS $9,200
2 Michael Brantley LEFT 0.333 0.102 26.2% 4.1% 10.3% 49.2% OF $3,700 OF $3,900 LF $7,500
3 Jose Ramirez SWITCH 0.344 0.217 35.5% 7.6% 9.3% 37.1% 2B $4,300 2B/3B $5,300 IF/OF $9,900
4 Edwin Encarnacion RIGHT 0.379 0.180 45.4% 16.4% 18.7% 29.1% 1B $3,800 1B $3,900 1B $7,500
5 Josh Donaldson RIGHT 0.320 0.204 43.3% 10.9% 34.5% 46.7% 3B $3,500 3B $4,200 3B $8,400
6 Yandy Diaz RIGHT 0.298 0.081 35.5% 2.6% 15.8% 54.8% 1B $2,600 1B/3B $3,300 3B $6,600
7 Brandon Guyer RIGHT 0.349 0.218 35.0% 9.9% 17.4% 36.3% OF $2,300 OF $3,000 RF $5,600
8 Roberto Perez RIGHT 0.299 0.034 41.2% 16.7% 36.1% 56.3% C $2,100 C $2,700 C $5,400
9 Jason Kipnis LEFT 0.284 0.126 30.7% 9.0% 20.1% 28.0% OF $3,200 2B/OF $3,900 2B $7,800
Team Averages 0.334 0.153 37.3% 9.8% 19.3% 42.5%

Elite Plays – None

Secondary Plays – None

StackabilityORANGE


Note: Unless noted, all statistics in the Grind Down are from the 2018 season.


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About the Author

Notorious
Derek Farnsworth (Notorious)

Derek Farnsworth (aka Notorious) is a lead RotoGrinders Expert and one of the most recognizable names and faces in all of DFS. Before joining the RotoGrinders team, Derek received a Master’s Degree from the University of Utah. When he’s not busy providing content, he’s dominating the DFS industry as evidenced by his consistent top rankings in several sports and multiple Live Final appearances. Noto provides expert NBA, NFL, MLB, and PGA analysis for RotoGrinders Premium members on a daily basis and has also been nominated for five different Fantasy Sports Writer’s Association (FSWA) awards. Follow Noto on Twitter – @RG_Notorious