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MLB Grind Down: Monday, April 4th

by Derek Farnsworth (Notorious) Last Updated 2016-04-05 02:13:38

The RotoGrinders MLB Grind Down article will give you an in-depth analysis into the MLB schedule. This article will break down the numbers for every single game and give you analysis on which trends you can exploit. While matchups are a major factor in daily fantasy baseball, there are plenty of other factors to consider such as injuries, weather, and salaries.

The analysis should point you in the right direction, but it is still up to you to decipher the information and make your own selections. No sport has more variance than baseball. The best choice is not always the right choice but following the trends will win you money over time.

Houston at NY Yankees – 11:05 AM CST

Houston NY Yankees
houstonmlb Dallas Keuchel nyyankeesmlb Masahiro Tanaka
LEFT RIGHT
Vegas Moneyline Vegas Over/Under
HOU -125 7.0
Stats wOBA HR Allowed K% BB% Stats wOBA HR Allowed K% BB%
SP vs. Left 0.201 3 26.3% 3.2% SP vs. Left 0.296 13 24.6% 4.8%
SP vs. Right 0.268 14 23.0% 6.2% SP vs. Right 0.280 12 21.3% 4.1%
Batter Splits Batter Splits
Batter Split Links Above Open In Pop-Up Window

Pitcher Grind Down

Dallas Keuchel : FD: $9,400 — DK: $9,000

Pitching Stats:
2015: — SIERA: 2.84 — K%: 23.7% — BB%: 5.6% — HR/9: 0.7 Hard Hit% 21.3%

New York Yankees Offense (2015)
vs. LH Pitching: wOBA: 0.326 (Rank: 7) — Strikeout Rate: 19.3% (Rank: 7)

Analysis: Keuchel is coming off of an incredible 2015 season. He took that step into the elite pitching category, improving on both his SIERA and strikeout rate from previous year. Keuchel produced the highest ground ball rate of any pitcher in baseball last season, while posting a 2.84 SIERA and a strikeout rate of 23.7%. We should never put a lot of stock into Spring ball, but Keuchel didn’t allow a single run in his 17 innings of work. The only issue with him on Opening Day is his matchup against the Yankees. They have a number of quality right-handed hitters in their lineup. In 2015, they finished seventh in wOBA and strikeout rate against left-handed pitching. With so many aces on the mound, Keuchel makes an excellent tournament play. There are safer options for cash games, though.

Pitcher Rating: 84.3

Masahiro Tanaka : FD: $7,500 — DK: $8,800

Pitching Stats:
2015: — SIERA: 3.36 — K%: 22.8% — BB%: 4.4% — HR/9: 1.5 Hard Hit% 31.1%

Houston Astros Offense (2015)
vs. RH Pitching: wOBA: 0.324 (Rank: 4) — Strikeout Rate: 23.6% (Rank: 29)

Analysis: Tanaka had an injury-plagued 2015 season, but he started 24 games and finished with a more than respectable 3.36 SIERA. It sounds like he is still pitching with a partially torn UCL though, which is not something that fantasy owners like to hear. It may only be a matter of time before he has to have another surgery. The one plus for Tanaka on Opening Day is his matchup. The Astros hit right-handed pitching well this season, but they struck out at the second highest rate (23.6%) of any team in baseball. Unfortunately, there are too many red flags for Tanaka to deserve serious consideration.

Pitcher Rating:

Batter Grind Down

Houston

Potential Starters

Player wOBA vs. RH FD Position FD Salary DK Position DK Salary
Jose Altuve 0.319 2B $3,700 2B $4,000
Luis Valbuena 0.348 3B $2,300 1B/3B $3,400
Jason Castro 0.307 C $2,400 C $3,100
Carlos Gomez 0.324 OF $3,400 OF $4,000
Preston Tucker 0.347 OF $2,400 OF $2,800
George Springer 0.336 OF $3,500 OF $4,100
Colby Rasmus 0.329 OF $3,000 OF $3,200
Carlos Correa 0.359 SS $4,300 SS $4,100

Targets: 67.8

There are very few pitching matchups that I would consider to be favorable on Opening Day. The Astros’ matchup against Masahiro Tanaka is less than appealing, as he held both left and right-handed hitters under a .300 wOBA last season. Houston has some talented young hitters in their lineup though, and I like the speed/power combination that George Springer and Carlos Correa provide. Jose Altuve is always among the league leaders in stolen bases, although we typically prefer him against left-handed pitchers. My favorite play here is Colby Rasmus. He ended the 2015 season on a tear and being left-handed, he sees a small boost in Yankee Stadium with the short porch in right field. All Astros’ bats are best suited as GPP plays.

Jose Altuve
jose-altuve-300x200 FanDuel: DraftKings:
Salary:$3,700 Salary:$4,000
Position:2B Position:2B
FPPG:11.0 FPPG:N/A
Statistics PA wOBA ISO wRC+ HR K% BB%
Overall (2015) 689 0.347 0.146 120 15 9.7% 4.8%
vs.RH Pitching 479 0.319 0.136 101 10 8.8% 3.1%
Carlos Correa
carlos-correa-300x200 FanDuel: DraftKings:
Salary:$4,300 Salary:$4,100
Position:SS Position:SS
FPPG:11.7 FPPG:N/A
Statistics PA wOBA ISO wRC+ HR K% BB%
Overall (2015) 432 0.365 0.233 133 22 18.1% 9.3%
vs.RH Pitching 292 0.359 0.209 128 13 19.5% 8.9%
Colby Rasmus
colby-rasmus-300x200 FanDuel: DraftKings:
Salary:$3,000 Salary:$3,200
Position:OF Position:OF
FPPG:7.3 FPPG:N/A
Statistics PA wOBA ISO wRC+ HR K% BB%
Overall (2015) 485 0.339 0.236 115 25 31.8% 9.7%
vs.RH Pitching 345 0.329 0.243 107 18 32.5% 7.8%

NY Yankees

Potential Starters

Player wOBA vs. LH FD Position FD Salary DK Position DK Salary
Mark Teixeira 0.342 1B $2,800 1B $3,600
Starlin Castro 0.283 2B $2,600 2B/SS $3,100
Alex Rodriguez 0.389 3B $2,800 1B/3B $3,700
Chase Headley 0.325 3B $2,500 3B $3,500
Brian McCann 0.331 C $2,900 C $3,500
Carlos Beltran 0.318 OF $3,200 OF $3,300
Jacoby Ellsbury 0.295 OF $3,300 OF $3,800
Brett Gardner 0.337 OF $2,900 OF $3,600
Didi Gregorius 0.281 SS $2,600 SS $3,000

Targets:

Targeting hitters against Dallas Keuchel is not a successful long-term strategy in daily fantasy baseball. Pitchers with elite ground ball rates typically don’t give up hard contact and they give up few extra base hits. Alex Rodriguez is really the only Yankees’ hitter on my radar in this one. Even though he is as old as the hills, he posted an elite .389 wOBA against left-handed pitching last season. My plan is to avoid the Yankees altogether, but A-Rod is a decent GPP target.

Alex Rodriguez
alex-rodriguez-300x200 FanDuel: DraftKings:
Salary:$2,800 Salary:$3,700
Position:3B Position:1B/3B
FPPG:10.4 FPPG:N/A
Statistics PA wOBA ISO wRC+ HR K% BB%
Overall (2015) 620 0.361 0.235 129 33 23.4% 13.5%
vs.LH Pitching 193 0.389 0.269 148 10 24.9% 16.1%

San Francisco at Milwaukee – 2:10 PM

San Francisco Milwaukee
sanfranciscomlb Madison Bumgarner milwaukeemlb Wily Peralta
LEFT RIGHT
Vegas Moneyline Vegas Over/Under
SF -175 7.0
Stats wOBA HR Allowed K% BB% Stats wOBA HR Allowed K% BB%
SP vs. Left 0.240 2 32.9% 4.0% SP vs. Left 0.376 9 11.1% 6.2%
SP vs. Right 0.272 19 25.7% 4.6% SP vs. Right 0.349 5 14.0% 9.4%
Batter Splits Batter Splits
Batter Split Links Above Open In Pop-Up Window

Pitcher Grind Down

Madison Bumgarner : FD: $10,600 — DK: $9,200

Pitching Stats:
2015: — SIERA: 3.00 — K%: 26.9% — BB%: 4.5% — HR/9: 0.9 Hard Hit% 27.8%

Milwaukee Brewers Offense (2015)
vs. LH Pitching: wOBA: 0.292 (Rank: 25) — Strikeout Rate: 22.0% (Rank: 23)

Analysis: It’s hard to believe that Bumgarner is only 26 years old. It feels like he has been around forever. He is coming off of an impressive 2015 season, where he improved his strikeout rate for the third consecutive year. He finished with a 3.00 SIERA and a strikeout rate of 26.9%. He also struck out more than five times as many hitters as he walked. There is no reason not to like him on opening day, as the Brewers had their worst offensive season in recent memory. In 2015, they were ranked 25th in wOBA and 23rd in strikeout rate against left-handed pitching. Bumgarner has immense strikeout potential in this matchup, even though the Brewers do have a right-handed heavy lineup.

Pitcher Rating: 95.6

Wily Peralta : FD: $4,300 — DK: $5,400

Pitching Stats:
2015: — SIERA: 4.75 — K%: 12.6% — BB%: 7.7% — HR/9: 1.2 Hard Hit% 32.6%

San Francisco Giants Offense (2015)
vs. RH Pitching: wOBA: 0.321 (Rank: 6) — Strikeout Rate: 18.9% (Rank: 6)

Analysis: Peralta is arguably the worst pitcher on the Opening Day slate. On most teams, he would be a fringe starter. He finished the 2015 season with a 4.75 SIERA, a 12.6% strikeout rate, and a 7.7% walk rate. As you will soon find out in daily fantasy baseball, strikeouts are king when it comes to pitcher selection. Not only does Peralta lack strikeout upside, but he is facing a Giants’ offense that is very disciplined at the plate. In 2015, they had the sixth lowest strikeout rate (18.9%) against right-handed pitching.

Pitcher Rating: 51.1

Batter Grind Down

San Francisco

Potential Starters

Player wOBA vs. RH FD Position FD Salary DK Position DK Salary
Brandon Belt 0.362 1B $3,000 1B $4,600
Joe Panik 0.369 2B $2,600 2B $4,200
Matt Duffy 0.440 3B $3,100 1B/3B $3,400
Buster Posey 0.362 C $3,800 1B/C $4,700
Angel Pagan 0.265 OF $2,500 OF $3,900
Hunter Pence 0.370 OF $2,900 OF $5,000
Denard Span 0.381 OF $3,100 OF $4,600
Brandon Crawford 0.341 SS $2,700 SS $4,300

Targets:

The Giants are one of my favorite teams to target in this 12-game slate. They have the sixth highest team total on the board, as they square off against Wily Peralta in the hitter-friendly Miller Park. In terms of handedness, Peralta didn’t discriminate last season. He allowed both left and right-handed hitters to hit for a .345+ wOBA against him last season. Hitters from both sides of the plate are in play here and a Giants’ stack is certainly in play.

Buster Posey
buster-posey-300x200 FanDuel: DraftKings:
Salary:$3,800 Salary:$4,700
Position:C Position:1B/C
FPPG:9.9 FPPG:N/A
Statistics PA wOBA ISO wRC+ HR K% BB%
Overall (2015) 623 0.363 0.153 138 19 8.3% 9.0%
vs.RH Pitching 475 0.362 0.143 138 14 9.1% 9.9%
Brandon Belt
brandon-belt-300x200 FanDuel: DraftKings:
Salary:$3,000 Salary:$4,600
Position:1B Position:1B
FPPG:9.9 FPPG:N/A
Statistics PA wOBA ISO wRC+ HR K% BB%
Overall (2015) 556 0.359 0.197 135 18 26.4% 10.1%
vs.RH Pitching 411 0.362 0.198 137 13 25.8% 10.2%
Hunter Pence
hunter-pence-300x200 FanDuel: DraftKings:
Salary:$2,900 Salary:$5,000
Position:OF Position:OF
FPPG:11.1 FPPG:N/A
Statistics PA wOBA ISO wRC+ HR K% BB%
Overall (2015) 223 0.347 0.203 127 9 21.5% 7.2%
vs.RH Pitching 182 0.370 0.216 143 8 22.0% 8.2%
Matt Duffy
matt-duffy-300x200 FanDuel: DraftKings:
Salary:$3,100 Salary:$3,400
Position:3B Position:1B/3B
FPPG:9.2 FPPG:N/A
Statistics PA wOBA ISO wRC+ HR K% BB%
Overall (2015) 612 0.331 0.133 116 12 15.7% 4.9%
vs.RH Pitching 2 0.440 0.000 185 0 50.0% 0.0%
Denard Span
denard-span-300x200 FanDuel: DraftKings:
Salary:$3,100 Salary:$4,600
Position:OF Position:OF
FPPG:10.5 FPPG:N/A
Statistics PA wOBA ISO wRC+ HR K% BB%
Overall (2015) 275 0.348 0.130 120 5 9.5% 9.1%
vs.RH Pitching 206 0.381 0.151 142 4 8.3% 9.2%
Joe Panik
joe-panik-300x200 FanDuel: DraftKings:
Salary:$2,600 Salary:$4,200
Position:2B Position:2B
FPPG:9.6 FPPG:N/A
Statistics PA wOBA ISO wRC+ HR K% BB%
Overall (2015) 432 0.363 0.144 138 8 9.7% 8.8%
vs.RH Pitching 332 0.369 0.155 142 7 10.2% 8.1%

Milwaukee

Potential Starters

Player wOBA vs. RH FD Position FD Salary DK Position DK Salary
Chris Carter 0.322 1B $2,500 1B $3,500
Scooter Gennett 0.138 2B $2,500 2B $3,000
Aaron Hill 0.262 3B $2,400 2B/3B $2,900
Jonathan Lucroy 0.279 C $3,100 C $3,600
Ryan Braun 0.408 OF $4,100 OF $4,500
Kirk Nieuwenhuis 0.128 OF $2,400 OF $3,000
Domingo Santana 0.405 OF $2,600 OF $3,700
Jonathan Villar 0.326 SS $2,300 3B/SS $3,200

Targets:

Ryan Braun and Domingo Santana both had a wOBA over .400 against left-handed pitching last season, but there are few lefties as talented as Madison Bumgarner. I will be avoiding the Brewers’ hitters in cash games and tournaments, as there are better matchups to exploit. Bumgarner held both left and right-handed hitters under a .275 wOBA last season.

Minnesota at Baltimore – 3:05 PM

Minnesota Baltimore
minnesotamlb Ervin Santana baltimoremlb Chris Tillman
RIGHT RIGHT
Vegas Moneyline Vegas Over/Under
BAL -120 8.5
Stats wOBA HR Allowed K% BB% Stats wOBA HR Allowed K% BB%
SP vs. Left 0.346 7 14.4% 9.8% SP vs. Left 0.309 3 17.1% 9.9%
SP vs. Right 0.286 5 21.7% 5.9% SP vs. Right 0.353 17 15.3% 7.4%
Batter Splits Batter Splits
Batter Split Links Above Open In Pop-Up Window

Pitcher Grind Down

Ervin Santana : FD: $5,600 — DK: $6,700

Pitching Stats:
2015: — SIERA: 4.43 — K%: 17.9% — BB%: 7.9% — HR/9: 1.0 Hard Hit% 28.1%

Baltimore Orioles Offense (2015)
vs. RH Pitching: wOBA: 0.325 (Rank: 3) — Strikeout Rate: 21.7% (Rank: 25)

Analysis: Wily Peralta may be the worst starting pitcher on Opening Day, but Santana isn’t far behind. He had one of the most inconsistent seasons of any starter last year. There were times when he was unhittable and times where he couldn’t get out of the first couple of innings. A trip to Camden Yards to face a stacked Orioles’ offense may lead to a bad start for Santana this season. In 2015, the Orioles had the third highest wOBA (.325) against right-handed pitching. This season they have added Pedro Alvarez, Mark Trumbo, and Hyun-soo Kim. Santana is an easy avoid.

Pitcher Rating: 52.4

Chris Tillman : FD: $5,800 — DK: $6,100

Pitching Stats:
2015: — SIERA: 4.69 — K%: 16.2% — BB%: 8.6% — HR/9: 1.0 Hard Hit% 26.9%

Minnesota Twins Offense (2015)
vs. RH Pitching: wOBA: 0.301 (Rank: 26) — Strikeout Rate: 21.2% (Rank: 22)

Analysis: You are going to want to target a lot of hitters from these first few games, because run production will be tough to come by in the later games. Tillman had a mediocre 2015 season, posting a 4.69 SIERA with a strikeout rate of 16.2%. He walked a few too many batters and gave up one home run per nine innings pitched. The good news for Tillman is that he should get plenty of run support on Opening Day. The bad news is that he lacks strikeout upside, especially when compared to some of the other pitcher options in this slate. The Twins do not pose a huge threat offensively, but that’s not enough of a reason to target Tillman.

Pitcher Rating: 58.4

Batter Grind Down

Minnesota

Potential Starters

Player wOBA vs. RH FD Position FD Salary DK Position DK Salary
Byung-ho Park 1B $2,600 1B $4,400
Joe Mauer 0.309 1B $2,500 1B $4,200
Brian Dozier 0.321 2B $3,100 2B $4,700
Trevor Plouffe 0.313 3B $2,500 3B $4,000
Kurt Suzuki 0.262 C $2,200 C $3,000
Miguel Sano 0.397 OF $3,100 3B $4,900
Eddie Rosario 0.306 OF $2,500 OF $4,000
Byron Buxton 0.306 OF $2,400 OF $3,900
Eduardo Escobar 0.318 SS $2,500 OF/SS $3,400

Targets:

The Twins are an interesting offense to target today and given the fact that they are the Twins, they should fly under the radar. Chris Tillman is a hittable pitcher and they get to face him in Camden Yards. Tillman actually produced reverse-splits last season, allowing a .353 wOBA to right-handed hitters. Left-handed hitters still had decent success against him with a .309 wOBA. This isn’t my favorite offense to target, but it’s certainly an above-average considering how many aces are on the mound today.

Brian Dozier
brian-dozier-300x200 FanDuel: DraftKings:
Salary:$3,100 Salary:$4,700
Position:2B Position:2B
FPPG:10.5 FPPG:N/A
Statistics PA wOBA ISO wRC+ HR K% BB%
Overall (2015) 704 0.323 0.209 103 28 21.0% 8.7%
vs.RH Pitching 498 0.321 0.208 102 21 22.3% 7.6%
Miguel Sano
miguel-sano-300x200 FanDuel: DraftKings:
Salary:$3,100 Salary:$4,900
Position:OF Position:3B
FPPG:11.3 FPPG:N/A
Statistics PA wOBA ISO wRC+ HR K% BB%
Overall (2015) 335 0.392 0.262 151 18 35.5% 15.8%
vs.RH Pitching 244 0.397 0.273 154 14 34.8% 17.6%
Byung-ho Park
byung-ho-park-300x200 FanDuel: DraftKings:
Salary:$2,600 Salary:$4,400
Position:1B Position:1B
FPPG:0.0 FPPG:N/A
Statistics PA wOBA ISO wRC+ HR K% BB%
Overall (2015)
vs.RH Pitching
Eddie Rosario
eddie-rosario-300x200 FanDuel: DraftKings:
Salary:$2,500 Salary:$4,000
Position:OF Position:OF
FPPG:8.6 FPPG:N/A
Statistics PA wOBA ISO wRC+ HR K% BB%
Overall (2015) 474 0.316 0.192 98 13 24.9% 3.2%
vs.RH Pitching 354 0.306 0.186 91 9 25.1% 3.1%

Baltimore

Potential Starters

Player wOBA vs. RH FD Position FD Salary DK Position DK Salary
Pedro Alvarez 0.336 1B $2,800 1B $3,600
Chris Davis 0.410 1B $3,700 1B/OF $5,100
Jonathan Schoop 0.379 2B $2,400 2B $4,100
Manny Machado 0.384 3B $4,300 3B $5,000
Matt Wieters 0.324 C $2,700 C $3,900
Hyun-soo Kim OF $2,900 1B/OF $4,000
Mark Trumbo 0.309 OF $2,900 1B/OF $4,000
Adam Jones 0.340 OF $3,100 OF $4,700
J.J. Hardy 0.258 SS $2,400 SS $3,600

Targets:

The Orioles have the third highest team total on the board, right behind the Reds and Diamondbacks. They draw one of the top matchups in this slate, as Ervin Santana can give up some big outings every now and then. The Orioles are a team that hits the ball well at home and with their new acquisitions, there isn’t a break in the lineup for opposing pitchers. Manny Machado, Chris Davis, Adam Jones, and Pedro Alvarez all had at least a .336 wOBA against right-handed pitching last season.

Manny Machado
manny-machado-300x200 FanDuel: DraftKings:
Salary:$4,300 Salary:$5,000
Position:3B Position:3B
FPPG:11.4 FPPG:N/A
Statistics PA wOBA ISO wRC+ HR K% BB%
Overall (2015) 713 0.370 0.216 134 35 15.6% 9.8%
vs.RH Pitching 533 0.384 0.232 143 28 15.0% 9.6%
Adam Jones
adam-jones-300x200 FanDuel: DraftKings:
Salary:$3,100 Salary:$4,700
Position:OF Position:OF
FPPG:9.9 FPPG:N/A
Statistics PA wOBA ISO wRC+ HR K% BB%
Overall (2015) 581 0.334 0.205 109 27 17.6% 4.1%
vs.RH Pitching 437 0.340 0.209 113 21 14.6% 3.9%
Chris Davis
chris-davis-300x200 FanDuel: DraftKings:
Salary:$3,700 Salary:$5,100
Position:1B Position:1B/OF
FPPG:11.9 FPPG:N/A
Statistics PA wOBA ISO wRC+ HR K% BB%
Overall (2015) 670 0.390 0.300 147 47 31.0% 12.5%
vs.RH Pitching 461 0.410 0.350 161 37 32.5% 14.8%
Pedro Alvarez
pedro-alvarez-300x200 FanDuel: DraftKings:
Salary:$2,800 Salary:$3,600
Position:1B Position:1B
FPPG:7.9 FPPG:N/A
Statistics PA wOBA ISO wRC+ HR K% BB%
Overall (2015) 491 0.333 0.227 114 27 26.7% 9.8%
vs.RH Pitching 426 0.336 0.237 116 24 26.1% 10.6%

Seattle at Texas – 4:05 PM

Seattle Texas
seattlemlb Felix Hernandez texasmlb Cole Hamels
RIGHT LEFT
Vegas Moneyline Vegas Over/Under
TEX -120 7.5
Stats wOBA HR Allowed K% BB% Stats wOBA HR Allowed K% BB%
SP vs. Left 0.305 12 19.1% 8.2% SP vs. Left 0.290 2 22.2% 9.3%
SP vs. Right 0.293 11 27.4% 5.7% SP vs. Right 0.294 20 25.1% 6.4%
Batter Splits Batter Splits
Batter Split Links Above Open In Pop-Up Window

Pitcher Grind Down

Felix Hernandez : FD: $9,100 — DK: $8,800

Pitching Stats:
2015: — SIERA: 3.38 — K%: 23.1% — BB%: 7.0% — HR/9: 1.0 Hard Hit% 25.4%

Texas Rangers Offense (2015)
vs. RH Pitching: wOBA: 0.321 (Rank: 6) — Strikeout Rate: 19.0% (Rank: 8)

Analysis: I can’t remember the last time that Hernandez was this cheap. King Felix had another tremendous season in 2015, posting a 3.38 SIERA with a strikeout rate of 23.1%. He has been the model of consistency, pitching at least 200 innings in each of the last eight seasons. He is likely on the downslope of his career, but that doesn’t mean that he’s still not an elite pitcher. The Mariners improved their defense as a whole, which will only help Hernandez. The main issue with Felix on Opening Day is his matchup. The Rangers are a capable offense and he has to face them in the hitter-friendly Globe Life Park. The upside is there, but Hernandez is more of a GPP play to start the season.

Pitcher Rating: 80.3

Cole Hamels : FD: $8,700 — DK: $8,400

Pitching Stats:
2015: — SIERA: 3.45 — K%: 24.4% — BB%: 7.1% — HR/9: 0.9 Hard Hit% 27.0%

Seattle Mariners Offense (2015)
vs. LH Pitching: wOBA: 0.317 (Rank: 13) — Strikeout Rate: 21.7% (Rank: 20)

Analysis: Hamels is another pitcher that has been a model of consistency over the years. He had his ups and down last season, but still finished with a 3.45 SIERA and a strikeout rate of 24.4%. The move to the American League didn’t exactly help his numbers, but he is still a top 15 pitcher in baseball. He opens the season with a mediocre matchup against the Mariners, who were a middle-of-the-pack offense in 2015. They did come alive toward the end of the season though, and they added two nice pieces in Adam Lind and Nori Aoki. I prefer Hamels over Hernandez in this one, but see both more as GPP plays.

Pitcher Rating: 81.9

Batter Grind Down

Seattle

Potential Starters

Player wOBA vs. RH FD Position FD Salary DK Position DK Salary
Adam Lind 0.257 1B $2,600 1B $3,500
Robinson Cano 0.310 2B $3,200 2B $4,100
Kyle Seager 0.357 3B $3,300 3B $4,400
Chris Iannetta 0.334 C $2,400 C $3,300
Norichika Aoki 0.347 OF $2,600 OF $4,000
Leonys Martin 0.250 OF $2,500 OF $3,000
Franklin Gutierrez 0.411 OF $2,400 OF $2,800
Nelson Cruz 0.459 OF $4,000 OF $4,700
Ketel Marte 0.316 SS $2,600 SS $3,600

Targets:

Cole Hamels is not a pitcher that I am going to go out of my way to target hitters against, but there are certainly worse matchups on the board today. The Mariners should not be targeted in cash games, but there are two bats that could be used in tournaments. In 2015, Nelson Cruz and Franklin Gutierrez both had a wOBA of at least .411 against left-handed pitching.

Nelson Cruz
nelson-cruz-300x200 FanDuel: DraftKings:
Salary:$4,000 Salary:$4,700
Position:OF Position:OF
FPPG:11.6 FPPG:N/A
Statistics PA wOBA ISO wRC+ HR K% BB%
Overall (2015) 655 0.396 0.264 158 44 25.0% 9.0%
vs.LH Pitching 191 0.459 0.315 202 14 21.5% 12.0%
Franklin Gutierrez
franklin-gutierrez-300x200 FanDuel: DraftKings:
Salary:$2,400 Salary:$2,800
Position:OF Position:OF
FPPG:9.4 FPPG:N/A
Statistics PA wOBA ISO wRC+ HR K% BB%
Overall (2015) 189 0.410 0.327 167 15 28.6% 7.4%
vs.LH Pitching 112 0.411 0.298 168 8 25.0% 6.3%

Texas

Potential Starters

Player wOBA vs. RH FD Position FD Salary DK Position DK Salary
Prince Fielder 0.392 1B $3,400 1B $4,500
Rougned Odor 0.333 2B $2,800 2B $3,800
Adrian Beltre 0.307 3B $3,300 3B $4,100
Robinson Chirinos 0.314 C $2,200 C $3,200
Mitch Moreland 0.372 OF $2,700 1B $3,900
Delino Deshields 0.308 OF $2,800 OF $3,900
Shin-Soo Choo 0.396 OF $3,400 OF $4,500
Ian Desmond 0.286 OF $2,800 SS $3,800
Elvis Andrus 0.273 SS $2,700 SS $3,700

Targets:

The Rangers may be favorites in this game, but that doesn’t mean that we should be targeting their offense. Felix Hernandez is still an elite pitcher that has been tough on both left and right-handed hitters throughout his career. In daily fantasy baseball, we want to give ourselves as much exposure to the matchups that can produce the best results and this just isn’t one of them.

Boston at Cleveland – 4:10 PM

Boston Cleveland
bostonmlb David Price clevelandmlb Corey Kluber
LEFT RIGHT
Vegas Moneyline Vegas Over/Under
BOS -110 6.5
Stats wOBA HR Allowed K% BB% Stats wOBA HR Allowed K% BB%
SP vs. Left 0.285 4 20.8% 3.1% SP vs. Left 0.322 11 25.8% 6.3%
SP vs. Right 0.265 13 26.9% 6.0% SP vs. Right 0.238 11 29.8% 3.6%
Batter Splits Batter Splits
Batter Split Links Above Open In Pop-Up Window

Pitcher Grind Down

David Price : FD: $10,000 — DK: $9,800

Pitching Stats:
2015: — SIERA: 3.27 — K%: 25.3% — BB%: 5.3% — HR/9: 0.7 Hard Hit% 28.2%

Cleveland Indians Offense (2015)
vs. LH Pitching: wOBA: 0.320 (Rank: 9) — Strikeout Rate: 18.7% (Rank: 5)

Analysis: Even though he didn’t have a great postseason, Price got PAID in the offseason. He signed a 7-year, $217 million contract with the Red Sox. Price has been an elite strikeout pitcher over the last few seasons. He likes to attack the plate, which is why his K:BB ratio is so high. It will be interesting to see what kind of impact Fenway Park will have on his ERA, but he opens the season in Cleveland. The Indians are known as a lineup full of left-handed hitters, but they actually managed to rank inside the top ten in wOBA against left-handed pitching last season. Price is going to be an elite play many times this season, just not on Opening Day. I may have some exposure in tournaments, but will be looking elsewhere in cash games.

Pitcher Rating: 84.6

Corey Kluber : FD: $9,600 — DK: $8,600

Pitching Stats:
2015: — SIERA: 2.98 — K%: 27.7% — BB%: 5.1% — HR/9: 0.9 Hard Hit% 27.0%

Boston Red Sox Offense (2015)
vs. RH Pitching: wOBA: 0.319 (Rank: 8) — Strikeout Rate: 17.8% (Rank: 3)

Analysis: There were times last season when Kluber was nearly as expensive as Clayton Kershaw. He had a career year, vaulting him to being known as one of the best pitchers in baseball. He finished the 2015 season with a 2.98 SIERA and a strikeout rate of 27.7%. He opens this season as a small underdogs, but the total for the game is set at only 6.5 runs. Whichever pitcher can get a few runs worth of support could walk away with the win in this one. The Red Sox had some success against Kluber last season, but he has shown that he can dominate any lineup, especially at home. He is one of my top GPP plays today.

Pitcher Rating: 87.9

Batter Grind Down

Boston

Potential Starters

Player wOBA vs. RH FD Position FD Salary DK Position DK Salary
David Ortiz 0.413 1B $3,500 1B $4,600
Hanley Ramirez 0.312 1B $2,800 OF $4,100
Dustin Pedroia 0.343 2B $2,800 2B $3,900
Pablo Sandoval 0.322 3B $2,600 3B $3,800
Blake Swihart 0.327 C $2,200 C $3,500
Jackie Bradley 0.337 OF $3,200 OF $3,400
Rusney Castillo 0.250 OF $2,500 OF $3,400
Mookie Betts 0.348 OF $4,000 OF $4,700
Xander Bogaerts 0.320 SS $3,800 SS $3,800

Targets:

The Red Sox have had a little success against Corey Kluber in the past. I’m not expecting a repeat this time around, but I certainly wouldn’t rule out using a couple of them in tournaments. My two favorite targets here are David Ortiz and Mookie Betts, who led the Red Sox in wOBA against right-handed pitching last season.

Mookie Betts
mookie-betts-300x200 FanDuel: DraftKings:
Salary:$4,000 Salary:$4,700
Position:OF Position:OF
FPPG:11.3 FPPG:N/A
Statistics PA wOBA ISO wRC+ HR K% BB%
Overall (2015) 654 0.351 0.188 119 18 12.5% 7.0%
vs.RH Pitching 493 0.348 0.192 117 13 13.6% 7.1%
David Ortiz
david-ortiz-300x200 FanDuel: DraftKings:
Salary:$3,500 Salary:$4,600
Position:1B Position:1B
FPPG:11.3 FPPG:N/A
Statistics PA wOBA ISO wRC+ HR K% BB%
Overall (2015) 614 0.379 0.280 138 37 15.5% 12.5%
vs.RH Pitching 430 0.413 0.320 161 29 13.0% 15.1%

Cleveland

Potential Starters

Player wOBA vs. RH FD Position FD Salary DK Position DK Salary
Mike Napoli 0.403 1B $2,600 1B $3,600
Carlos Santana 0.333 1B $2,900 1B $3,900
Jason Kipnis 0.296 2B $3,000 2B $4,000
Juan Uribe 0.379 3B $2,200 3B $3,400
Yan Gomes 0.235 C $2,500 C $3,400
Lonnie Chisenhall 0.277 OF $2,400 3B/OF $3,000
Rajai Davis 0.324 OF $2,800 OF $3,200
Michael Brantley 0.339 OF $3,600 OF $4,100
Francisco Lindor 0.381 SS $3,300 SS $3,800

Targets:

Once again, there are a lot of less than optimal matchups today. For cash games, stack the teams with the highest team totals. I feel like I broken record, but the Indians have a couple of interesting tournament plays. David Price will leave a fastball out over the plate every once in a while and both Mike Napoli and Francisco Lindor posted a wOBA over .380 against left-handed pitching last season.

Mike Napoli
mike-napoli-300x200 FanDuel: DraftKings:
Salary:$2,600 Salary:$3,600
Position:1B Position:1B
FPPG:7.4 FPPG:N/A
Statistics PA wOBA ISO wRC+ HR K% BB%
Overall (2015) 469 0.321 0.187 98 18 25.2% 12.2%
vs.LH Pitching 179 0.403 0.285 154 12 26.3% 15.1%
Francisco Lindor
francisco-lindor-300x200 FanDuel: DraftKings:
Salary:$3,300 Salary:$3,800
Position:SS Position:SS
FPPG:10.3 FPPG:N/A
Statistics PA wOBA ISO wRC+ HR K% BB%
Overall (2015) 438 0.358 0.169 128 12 15.8% 6.2%
vs.LH Pitching 155 0.381 0.200 144 5 16.1% 7.1%

Make sure to check out my Blueprint to Daily Fantasy Baseball, as well as some other great MLB courses at RotoAcademy.

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About the Author

Notorious
Derek Farnsworth (Notorious)

Derek Farnsworth (aka Notorious) is a lead RotoGrinders Expert and one of the most recognizable names and faces in all of DFS. Before joining the RotoGrinders team, Derek received a Master’s Degree from the University of Utah. When he’s not busy providing content, he’s dominating the DFS industry as evidenced by his consistent top rankings in several sports and multiple Live Final appearances. Noto provides expert NBA, NFL, MLB, and PGA analysis for RotoGrinders Premium members on a daily basis and has also been nominated for five different Fantasy Sports Writer’s Association (FSWA) awards. Follow Noto on X – @RG_Notorious