MLB Grind Down: Monday, August 13th

by Derek Farnsworth (Notorious) Last Updated 2018-08-13 19:35:10

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The RotoGrinders MLB Grind Down will give you an in-depth analysis into the upcoming MLB schedule. This article will break down the numbers for every single game and give you analysis on which trends you can exploit. While matchups are a major factor in daily fantasy baseball, there are plenty of other factors to consider such as injuries, weather, and salaries.

The analysis should point you in the right direction, but it is still up to you to decipher the information and make your own selections. No sport has more variance than baseball. The best choice is not always the right choice but following the trends will win you money over time.

Note: As always, if you want to try a new DFS site, be sure to click through a RotoGrinders link and use our DraftKings promo code, FanDuel promo code, and FantasyDraft promo code to receive the best perks in the industry.

Stackability Rating System:

GREEN – A viable full stack in cash games and GPPs.
YELLOW – A viable mini-stack in cash games and full stack in GPPs.
ORANGE – A viable stack in large field GPPs.
RED – Not a recommended stack for cash games or GPPs.

Implied Run Totals

Ballpark Ratings

NY Mets at NY Yankees – 7:05 PM ET

Stats	wOBA	xwOBA	HC%	HR/9	K%	GB%	Stats	wOBA	xwOBA	HC%	HR/9	K%	GB%
NY Mets								NY Yankees
			Jacob deGrom							Luis Severino
			RIGHT							RIGHT
			Vegas Moneyline							Vegas Over/Under
			NYY-190							7.0
SP vs. Left (2016-17)	0.282	0.274	26.3%	0.61	29.4%	42.2%	SP vs. Left (2016-17)	0.291	0.311	34.7%	0.70	28.5%	42.0%
SP vs. Right (2016-17)	0.204	0.244	32.1%	0.34	32.0%	47.5%	SP vs. Right (2016-17)	0.276	0.307	31.3%	1.05	27.0%	42.9%

Pitcher Grind Down

	Stats	Starts	SIERA	ERA	K%	BB%	GB%	HC%	SC%	aFV	SwS%
Jacob deGrom
	FanDuel				DraftKings				FantasyDraft
	Salary:			$11,200	Salary:			$12,300	Salary:		$24,100
	Salary Rank:			1 of 20	Salary Rank:			1 of 20	Salary Rank:		1 of 20
	2017	31	3.44	3.53	28.9%	7.1%	45.3%	31.9%	21.3%	95.2	13.3%
	2018	23	2.94	1.77	30.7%	5.7%	44.8%	29.1%	25.1%	95.6	15.1%
	L14	2	2.23	1.29	37.3%	3.9%	42.9%	33.3%	26.7%	95.8	16.0%

Unless you are someone that still judges a pitcher based on his win/loss record, you’ll agree that DeGrom is having a tremendous season. In 23 starts, he owns a 2.94 SIERA with a strikeout rate of 31% and a walk rate of 6%. He induces a lot of soft contact (25%) and has an elite swinging strike rate (15%). He has one of his toughest tests to date in front of him tonight, as he takes on the Yankees in Yankee Stadium. The projected lineup for New York has an average xwOBA of .342 with a hard contact rate of 27% and a strikeout rate of only 21% against right-handed pitching. DeGrom makes sense as a leverage play off of the more popular Luis Severino, but I’m only looking his way in tournaments.

Quick Breakdown: Given the matchup and ballpark, deGrom is only on my radar for tournaments.

	Stats	Starts	SIERA	ERA	K%	BB%	GB%	HC%	SC%	aFV	SwS%
Luis Severino
	FanDuel				DraftKings				FantasyDraft
	Salary:			$10,300	Salary:			$11,800	Salary:		$23,000
	Salary Rank:			3 of 20	Salary Rank:			2 of 20	Salary Rank:		2 of 20
	2017	31	3.25	2.98	29.4%	6.5%	50.6%	28.5%	19.4%	97.6	13.0%
	2018	24	3.30	3.11	27.7%	6.0%	42.5%	32.8%	19.7%	97.7	12.2%
	L14	2	4.36	4.97	18.5%	5.6%	36.6%	22.0%	9.8%	97.3	10.3%

Severino has cooled off in his last couple of starts, but still has an elite skill set. In 24 starts this season, he owns a 3.30 SIERA with a strikeout rate of 28%. He has good control and an ability to pitch well in any ballpark and in any matchup. The Mets’ lineup doesn’t look terrible at this point in time, but they certainly aren’t an intimidating matchup. Their projected lineup has a 22% strikeout rate against right-handed pitching this season. Severino offers a high floor and a high ceiling, which makes him a strong play in both cash games and tournaments.

Quick Breakdown: Severino is an elite play in all formats.

Batter Grind Down

NY Mets

There are ten games on the schedule tonight and the two most talented pitchers (at least based on this season’s statistics) are squaring off in New York. This is not the game that we should be targeting for hitters. In addition to having an elite strikeout rate (28%), Luis Severino has held both left and right-handed hitters under a .315 xwOBA this season. If that sounds appealing to you, feel free to target the Mets’ offense. I would rather pick on the likes of Bartolo Colon, Merandy Gonzalez, and Homer Bailey.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

#	Player	Bats	xwOBA	ISO	HC%	BB%	K%	GB%	FD Pos.	FD Sal.	DK Pos.	DK Sal.	FDRFT Pos.	FDRFT Sal.
1	Amed Rosario	RIGHT	0.280	0.109	28.1%	5.4%	19.1%	51.1%	SS	$2,800	SS	$3,000	SS	$6,000
2	Jeff McNeil	LEFT	0.348	0.174	33.3%	7.3%	10.9%	33.3%	2B	$2,900	2B	$3,300	2B	$6,300
3	Wilmer Flores	RIGHT	0.327	0.212	37.9%	7.4%	9.7%	34.5%	1B	$3,300	1B	$3,600	3B	$7,500
4	Michael Conforto	LEFT	0.356	0.155	38.9%	17.0%	22.2%	37.3%	OF	$3,400	OF	$3,800	LF	$7,400
5	Brandon Nimmo	LEFT	0.366	0.243	36.5%	13.6%	26.6%	36.7%	OF	$3,500	OF	$4,500	LF	$9,200
6	Todd Frazier	RIGHT	0.351	0.168	45.6%	10.0%	21.5%	37.4%	3B	$2,700	3B	$3,500	3B	$6,600
7	Jose Bautista	RIGHT	0.347	0.141	41.0%	14.6%	30.8%	35.0%	OF	$2,600	3B/OF	$3,200	IF/OF	$6,800
8	Austin Jackson	RIGHT	0.289	0.150	34.4%	8.2%	36.4%	42.6%	OF	$2,700	OF	$3,500	CF	$6,400
9	Devin Mesoraco	RIGHT	0.301	0.165	30.5%	7.2%	18.9%	32.8%	C	$2,700	C	$3,200	C	$6,800
	Team Averages		0.329	0.169	36.2%	10.1%	21.8%	37.9%

Elite Plays – None

Secondary Plays – None

Stackability – RED

NY Yankees

The Yankees have the more talented offense of the two squaring off tonight in Yankee Stadium, but it’s hard to make a case for any of them. Jacob deGrom has one of the best skill sets in baseball. He owns an elite strikeout rate (31%) and he has one of the highest soft contact rates (25%) of any pitcher. On the season, he has held both left and right-handed hitters under a .280 xwOBA. Once again, large slates come down to options and there are better matchups to exploit than the ones in this game.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

#	Player	Bats	xwOBA	ISO	HC%	BB%	K%	GB%	FD Pos.	FD Sal.	DK Pos.	DK Sal.	FDRFT Pos.	FDRFT Sal.
1	Brett Gardner	LEFT	0.296	0.142	26.9%	11.3%	15.1%	51.4%	OF	$3,200	OF	$3,800	LF	$7,600
2	Giancarlo Stanton	RIGHT	0.328	0.216	36.4%	7.8%	30.7%	49.4%	OF	$4,100	OF	$4,500	RF	$8,900
3	Didi Gregorius	LEFT	0.346	0.227	37.6%	9.2%	12.4%	34.8%	SS	$3,600	SS	$4,100	SS	$8,400
4	Aaron Hicks	SWITCH	0.377	0.203	38.8%	15.6%	19.0%	43.2%	OF	$3,700	OF	$4,000	CF	$7,200
5	Gleyber Torres	RIGHT	0.366	0.236	37.0%	8.1%	25.1%	31.7%	2B	$3,600	2B	$3,700	2B	$7,500
6	Greg Bird	LEFT	0.325	0.198	42.5%	8.2%	24.7%	31.5%	1B	$2,700	1B	$3,300	1B	$6,700
7	Miguel Andujar	RIGHT	0.352	0.205	36.9%	4.0%	17.5%	48.3%	3B	$3,300	3B	$4,000	3B	$7,700
8	Austin Romine	RIGHT	0.339	0.203	39.2%	8.0%	21.0%	46.3%	C	$2,400	C	$3,000	C	$5,600
9	Neil Walker	SWITCH	0.353	0.116	38.8%	9.7%	22.1%	37.3%	2B	$2,600	1B/2B	$3,100	2B	$5,500
	Team Averages		0.342	0.194	37.1%	9.1%	20.8%	41.5%

Elite Plays – None

Secondary Plays – None

Stackability – RED

Chicago White Sox at Detroit – 7:10 PM ET

Stats	wOBA	xwOBA	HC%	HR/9	K%	GB%	Stats	wOBA	xwOBA	HC%	HR/9	K%	GB%
Chicago White Sox								Detroit
			Reynaldo Lopez							Artie Lewicki
			RIGHT							RIGHT
			Vegas Moneyline							Vegas Over/Under
			DET-102							9.0
SP vs. Left (2016-17)	0.311	0.357	34.1%	1.17	15.3%	32.1%	SP vs. Left (2016-17)	0.370	0.421	46.8%	1.02	12.7%	37.1%
SP vs. Right (2016-17)	0.340	0.381	33.2%	1.49	17.5%	35.8%	SP vs. Right (2016-17)	0.332	0.367	47.9%	1.10	24.6%	47.9%

Pitcher Grind Down

	Stats	Starts	SIERA	ERA	K%	BB%	GB%	HC%	SC%	aFV	SwS%
Reynaldo Lopez
	FanDuel				DraftKings				FantasyDraft
	Salary:			$6,300	Salary:			$6,300	Salary:		$13,000
	Salary Rank:			14 of 20	Salary Rank:			13 of 20	Salary Rank:		13 of 20
	2017	8	5.44	4.72	14.5%	6.8%	30.2%	27.8%	17.9%	94.5	9.0%
	2018	23	5.32	4.30	16.4%	10.1%	33.9%	33.7%	20.9%	95.4	8.7%
	L14	2	4.79	1.93	17.9%	7.1%	37.5%	34.2%	26.8%	96.2	11.5%

We have a potential shootout tonight in Detroit. While these two offenses are below-average, the pitchers are even worse and the game is being played in a hitter-friendly ballpark. In 23 starts this season, Lopez owns a 5.32 SIERA with a strikeout rate of 16% and a walk rate of 10%. He’s a tough sell in DFS, regardless of his matchup. Even though the Tigers’ projected lineup has a .299 xwOBA and a 23% strikeout rate against right-handed pitching, I’ll still side with Detroit in this matchup.

Quick Breakdown: Avoid Lopez in all formats.

	Stats	Starts	SIERA	ERA	K%	BB%	GB%	HC%	SC%	aFV	SwS%
Artie Lewicki
	FanDuel				DraftKings				FantasyDraft
	Salary:			$5,500	Salary:			$5,600	Salary:		$11,300
	Salary Rank:			17 of 20	Salary Rank:			14 of 20	Salary Rank:		14 of 20
	2017	1	5.51	6.10	11.5%	7.7%	40.5%	26.2%	11.9%	92.2	8.3%
	2018	2	4.25	4.76	18.2%	7.4%	41.8%	47.3%	13.6%	92.4	8.2%
	L14	0	0.57	3.00	50.0%	0.0%	40.0%	40.0%	20.0%	92.6	15.2%

Lewicki is making this third start of the season and his 13th appearance in the majors. In 12 Triple-A starts, he posted a 3.43 FIP with a strikeout rate of 22%. While those numbers are decent, pitching at the major league level is a different animal for most young arms. The White Sox look like an exploitable matchup on paper, but this game is basically set as a pick ‘em with a total of 9.0 runs. Given the state of these two offenses, that high total says all we need to know about these two starters.

Quick Breakdown: Avoid Lewicki in all formats.

Batter Grind Down

Chicago White Sox

The White Sox may not have the deepest collection of talent, but they do have an exploitable matchup on their hands. On the season, Artie Lewicki has allowed a .421 xwOBA to lefties, a .367 xwOBA to righties, and a 46%+ hard contact rate to batters from both sides of the plate. The White Sox present us with a great source of value. Nick Delmonico is my favorite value play of the slate (assuming he’s batting leadoff), while Yolmer Sanchez, Jose Abreu, Daniel Palka, and Avisail Garcia all boast an ISO of at least .165 against right-handed pitching this season.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

#	Player	Bats	xwOBA	ISO	HC%	BB%	K%	GB%	FD Pos.	FD Sal.	DK Pos.	DK Sal.	FDRFT Pos.	FDRFT Sal.
1	Nick Delmonico	LEFT	0.310	0.131	28.8%	9.2%	20.9%	43.2%	OF	$2,200	OF	$3,400	IF/OF	$6,300
2	Yolmer Sanchez	SWITCH	0.304	0.169	27.4%	6.5%	19.2%	46.8%	3B	$2,400	3B	$3,300	2B	$6,700
3	Jose Abreu	RIGHT	0.373	0.198	35.9%	6.4%	18.0%	43.9%	1B	$3,500	1B	$4,500	1B	$9,000
4	Daniel Palka	LEFT	0.332	0.277	39.3%	4.9%	35.4%	40.0%	OF	$2,700	OF	$4,200	IF/OF	$8,100
5	Avisail Garcia	RIGHT	0.334	0.211	38.2%	2.8%	26.0%	47.2%	OF	$2,600	OF	$3,900	RF	$7,500
6	Omar Narvaez	LEFT	0.344	0.146	26.8%	9.2%	17.8%	38.1%	C	$2,100	C	$3,300	C	$6,800
7	Tim Anderson	RIGHT	0.271	0.153	26.9%	5.6%	25.6%	48.6%	SS	$2,500	SS	$3,800	SS	$7,300
8	Yoan Moncada	SWITCH	0.338	0.206	38.1%	10.3%	34.7%	31.1%	2B	$3,000	2B	$3,900	2B	$7,700
9	Ryan LaMarre	RIGHT	0.271	0.053	34.7%	7.3%	31.7%	47.9%	OF	$2,000	OF	$2,800	CF	$5,600
	Team Averages		0.320	0.172	32.9%	6.9%	25.5%	43.0%

Elite Plays – Nick Delmonico, Jose Abreu, Daniel Palka (GPP), Avisail Garcia (GPP)

Secondary Plays – Daniel Palka (Cash), Avisail Garcia (Cash), Yolmer Sanchez, Omar Narvaez (DK)

Stackability – YELLOW / GREEN

Detroit

The Tigers are in the exact same boat as the White Sox. While they don’t have the most talented offense around, a matchup against Reynaldo Lopez should make up for it. He has a low strikeout rate, a high walk rate, and he has allowed a .355+ xwOBA to both left and right-handed hitters this season. Mike Gerger and Jose Iglesias are two cheap bats that should be hitting at the top of the order, while Nick Castellanos, Jeimer Candelario, and Niko Goodrum all boast a .170+ ISO against right-handed pitching.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

#	Player	Bats	xwOBA	ISO	HC%	BB%	K%	GB%	FD Pos.	FD Sal.	DK Pos.	DK Sal.	FDRFT Pos.	FDRFT Sal.
1	Mike Gerber	LEFT	0.277	0.045	18.8%	11.5%	26.9%	31.3%	OF	$2,100	OF	$3,800	RF	$7,200
2	Jose Iglesias	RIGHT	0.269	0.106	25.9%	3.6%	11.1%	46.0%	SS	$2,200	SS	$3,400	SS	$6,800
3	Nick Castellanos	RIGHT	0.365	0.178	47.6%	5.5%	24.6%	34.1%	OF	$2,900	OF	$3,800	IF/OF	$7,600
4	Jeimer Candelario	SWITCH	0.287	0.173	33.9%	10.9%	25.2%	38.5%	3B	$2,800	3B	$3,700	3B	$7,200
5	Victor Martinez	SWITCH	0.335	0.073	39.2%	7.3%	9.4%	39.2%	C	$2,100	1B	$2,700	1B	$5,700
6	Niko Goodrum	SWITCH	0.324	0.231	38.4%	8.5%	29.6%	39.6%	2B	$2,200	2B/OF	$3,800	1B	$7,700
7	Jim Adduci	LEFT	0.277	0.175	36.6%	3.4%	27.1%	46.3%	OF	$2,200	1B	$3,400	LF	$6,500
8	James McCann	RIGHT	0.270	0.083	35.6%	6.0%	23.0%	39.9%	C	$2,200	C	$2,600	C	$4,900
9	JaCoby Jones	RIGHT	0.286	0.162	28.8%	4.8%	31.5%	41.2%	OF	$2,200	OF	$3,200	CF	$6,800
	Team Averages		0.299	0.136	33.9%	6.8%	23.2%	39.6%

Elite Plays – Jose Iglesias, Nick Castellanos

Secondary Plays – Mike Gerber, Jeimer Candelario, Niko Goodrum

Stackability – YELLOW / GREEN

Cleveland at Cincinnati – 7:10 PM ET

Stats	wOBA	xwOBA	HC%	HR/9	K%	GB%	Stats	wOBA	xwOBA	HC%	HR/9	K%	GB%
Cleveland								Cincinnati
			Mike Clevinger							Homer Bailey
			RIGHT							RIGHT
			Vegas Moneyline							Vegas Over/Under
			CLE-160							9.0
SP vs. Left (2016-17)	0.303	0.335	34.8%	0.76	20.5%	39.1%	SP vs. Left (2016-17)	0.363	0.373	33.6%	2.09	16.1%	40.6%
SP vs. Right (2016-17)	0.286	0.275	35.2%	0.83	27.7%	41.5%	SP vs. Right (2016-17)	0.373	0.414	50.0%	1.74	13.5%	40.8%

Pitcher Grind Down

	Stats	Starts	SIERA	ERA	K%	BB%	GB%	HC%	SC%	aFV	SwS%
Mike Clevinger
	FanDuel				DraftKings				FantasyDraft
	Salary:			$9,300	Salary:			$9,200	Salary:		$17,600
	Salary Rank:			6 of 20	Salary Rank:			7 of 20	Salary Rank:		7 of 20
	2017	21	4.24	3.11	27.3%	12.0%	39.5%	34.2%	18.6%	92.5	12.5%
	2018	23	3.93	3.38	24.1%	7.7%	40.3%	35.0%	17.9%	93.3	11.6%
	L14	2	3.58	2.77	22.0%	2.0%	40.5%	27.0%	27.0%	93.8	9.9%

Clevinger has seen a dip in his strikeout rate this season, but it’s been a good trade-off. He has improved his control (8% walk rate) and has been able to pitch deeper into games. While he gets to pitch in a National League ballpark tonight, this isn’t the most pitcher-friendly one around. Great American Ballpark is routinely at the top of the majors in terms of home run production, which typically doesn’t bode well for fly-ball pitchers like Clevinger. The matchup looks exploitable on paper, but Clevinger would only be a part of my player pool if I was building multiple tournament lineups.

Quick Breakdown: Clevinger is an easy fade in cash games, but a decent option in tournaments.

	Stats	Starts	SIERA	ERA	K%	BB%	GB%	HC%	SC%	aFV	SwS%
Homer Bailey
	FanDuel				DraftKings				FantasyDraft
	Salary:			$5,600	Salary:			$4,100	Salary:		$8,400
	Salary Rank:			16 of 20	Salary Rank:			20 of 20	Salary Rank:		19 of 20
	2017	18	5.19	6.43	16.0%	10.0%	44.6%	31.0%	16.5%	93.5	9.3%
	2018	15	4.99	6.19	14.7%	7.4%	40.7%	42.5%	13.0%	93.1	8.2%
	L14	2	4.05	5.56	16.3%	2.0%	46.2%	40.0%	7.5%	93.7	7.7%

Bailey had those two solid starts in a row and to my genuine surprise, became a chalky play in DFS in his next start. In what wasn’t surprising at all, he turned back into the pitcher that we’ve come to know and love over the last five years. On the season, he owns a 4.99 SIERA with a strikeout rate of only 15%. He gives up a lot of hard contact and pitches in a ballpark that isn’t very kind to fly-ball pitchers. To make matters worse, he is facing an Indians’ offense that mashes right-handed pitching.

Quick Breakdown: Avoid Bailey in all formats.

Batter Grind Down

Cleveland

The Indians see a favorable ballpark shift playing in Cincinnati and draw one of the best matchups of the slate. On the season, Homer Bailey has allowed a .370+ xwOBA and a 34%+ hard contact rate to both left and right-handed hitters. The only negative about the Indians is how expensive their stack is, but it’s still near the top of my list. Each of the first four hitters in their projected lineup has a .385+ xwOBA and a .190+ ISO against right-handed pitching this season — Francisco Lindor, Michael Brantley, Jose Ramirez, and Yonder Alonso.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

#	Player	Bats	xwOBA	ISO	HC%	BB%	K%	GB%	FD Pos.	FD Sal.	DK Pos.	DK Sal.	FDRFT Pos.	FDRFT Sal.
1	Francisco Lindor	SWITCH	0.407	0.289	42.8%	9.7%	16.9%	33.8%	SS	$5,000	SS	$5,900	SS	$11,100
2	Michael Brantley	LEFT	0.407	0.194	44.4%	8.4%	7.8%	43.2%	OF	$3,800	OF	$5,300	LF	$10,000
3	Jose Ramirez	SWITCH	0.426	0.370	39.2%	18.6%	11.4%	28.8%	3B	$5,000	3B	$6,000	IF/OF	$11,000
4	Yonder Alonso	LEFT	0.387	0.212	39.4%	9.3%	19.9%	38.2%	1B	$3,100	1B	$4,200	1B	$8,200
5	Melky Cabrera	SWITCH	0.330	0.121	36.1%	5.9%	11.8%	44.6%	OF	$2,200	OF	$3,800	LF	$7,700
6	Jason Kipnis	LEFT	0.347	0.134	37.7%	10.1%	18.0%	35.2%	2B	$2,800	2B	$4,000	2B	$7,700
7	Yan Gomes	RIGHT	0.297	0.153	41.5%	4.4%	28.8%	34.7%	C	$2,500	C	$3,600	C	$7,400
8	Greg Allen	SWITCH	0.270	0.083	40.2%	4.9%	19.6%	45.5%	OF	$2,300	OF	$3,800	CF	$7,700
9	Mike Clevinger	RIGHT	0.000	0.000	0.0%	0.0%	100.0%	0.0%	P	$9,300	P	$9,200	P	$17,600
	Team Averages		0.319	0.173	35.7%	7.9%	26.0%	33.8%

Elite Plays – Francisco Lindor, Michael Brantley, Jose Ramirez, Yonder Alonso

Secondary Plays – Melky Cabrera, Jason Kipnis, Yan Gomes (DK)

Stackability – GREEN

Cincinnati

The Reds have fared well at home this season (at least offensively), but draw a difficult matchup against Mike Clevinger. Luckily, they have plenty of left-handed hitters that they can throw at him. On the season, Clevinger has allowed a .335 xwOBA and a 35% hard contact rate to lefties. This brings Joey Votto, Scooter Gennett, and Mason Williams into play. While I don’t see them as elite plays at their respective positions, they should all be low owned and are playing in a ballpark that favors left-handed power.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

#	Player	Bats	xwOBA	ISO	HC%	BB%	K%	GB%	FD Pos.	FD Sal.	DK Pos.	DK Sal.	FDRFT Pos.	FDRFT Sal.
1	Jose Peraza	RIGHT	0.299	0.114	31.7%	5.7%	12.0%	36.6%	SS	$2,500	SS	$3,900	SS	$7,700
2	Joey Votto	LEFT	0.452	0.155	38.7%	19.3%	13.4%	33.8%	1B	$3,500	1B	$4,300	1B	$8,500
3	Scooter Gennett	LEFT	0.344	0.176	38.3%	7.6%	18.2%	39.8%	2B	$3,200	2B	$4,200	2B	$8,300
4	Eugenio Suarez	RIGHT	0.378	0.246	48.9%	8.3%	22.2%	36.5%	3B	$3,500	3B	$4,700	3B	$9,400
5	Mason Williams	LEFT	0.290	0.093	41.7%	2.2%	19.6%	56.3%	OF	$2,100	OF	$3,200	CF	$6,500
6	Tucker Barnhart	SWITCH	0.335	0.109	39.7%	10.0%	16.1%	41.7%	C	$2,000	C	$3,400	C	$6,500
7	Preston Tucker	LEFT	0.293	0.175	41.4%	5.4%	26.2%	47.7%	OF	$2,000	OF	$3,700	LF	$7,700
8	Homer Bailey	RIGHT	0.096	0.000	16.7%	0.0%	33.3%	100.0%	P	$5,600	P	$4,100	P	$8,400
9	Billy Hamilton	SWITCH	0.250	0.063	19.4%	9.3%	23.6%	44.3%	OF	$2,300	OF	$3,800	CF	$7,600
	Team Averages		0.304	0.126	35.2%	7.5%	20.5%	48.5%

Elite Plays – None

Secondary Plays – Joey Votto, Scooter Gennett, Mason Williams

Stackability – ORANGE / YELLOW

Miami at Atlanta – 7:35 PM ET

Stats	wOBA	xwOBA	HC%	HR/9	K%	GB%	Stats	wOBA	xwOBA	HC%	HR/9	K%	GB%
Miami								Atlanta
			Merandy Gonzalez							Mike Foltynewicz
			RIGHT							RIGHT
			Vegas Moneyline							Vegas Over/Under
			ATL-240							9.0
SP vs. Left (2016-17)	0.396	0.429	40.9%	1.50	16.1%	36.4%	SP vs. Left (2016-17)	0.299	0.316	34.8%	1.24	26.8%	42.3%
SP vs. Right (2016-17)	0.362	0.342	33.3%	1.59	21.6%	33.3%	SP vs. Right (2016-17)	0.272	0.287	33.8%	0.77	29.3%	45.1%

Pitcher Grind Down

	Stats	Starts	SIERA	ERA	K%	BB%	GB%	HC%	SC%	aFV	SwS%
Merandy Gonzalez
	FanDuel				DraftKings				FantasyDraft
	Salary:			$5,500	Salary:			$5,100	Salary:		$10,400
	Salary Rank:			17 of 20	Salary Rank:			15 of 20	Salary Rank:		15 of 20

	2018	0	4.37	5.71	19.5%	9.8%	34.5%	36.2%	19.0%	93.9	8.8%

Gonzalez has made seven relief appearances this season, but tonight will be his first career major league start. He’s the team’s 16th ranked prospect, but I’m not seeing much upside in his pitching profile. In 14 Double-A starts this season, he posted a 4.97 FIP with a strikeout rate of only 15%. And that was two levels below the majors. He will likely struggle mightily tonight against the Braves, whose projected lineup has six batters with at least a .180 ISO against right-handed pitching.

Quick Breakdown: Avoid Gonzalez in all formats.

	Stats	Starts	SIERA	ERA	K%	BB%	GB%	HC%	SC%	aFV	SwS%
Mike Foltynewicz
	FanDuel				DraftKings				FantasyDraft
	Salary:			$8,900	Salary:			$10,500	Salary:		$20,700
	Salary Rank:			7 of 20	Salary Rank:			3 of 20	Salary Rank:		3 of 20
	2017	28	4.57	4.79	20.7%	8.5%	39.4%	28.1%	15.8%	95.3	9.4%
	2018	22	3.74	2.98	28.0%	9.9%	43.7%	34.3%	18.2%	96.5	10.4%
	L14	2	3.67	2.31	24.0%	6.0%	50.0%	37.1%	11.4%	96.3	7.1%

Foltynewicz is arguably the top point-per-dollar pitcher of the slate. In 22 starts this season, he owns a 3.74 SIERA with a strikeout rate of 28%. He has great velocity and he’s finally figured out a way to turn that into an elite strikeout rate. He’s pitching at home in a ballpark that is tough on run production and he gets to face a very weak Marlins’ offense. They traded Justin Bour to the Phillies and with J.T. Realmuto catching the first game of this double-header, he’s unlikely to be in the lineup tonight. The projected lineup for tonight’s game has a .260 xwOBA with a 27% strikeout rate against right-handed pitching.

Quick Breakdown: Foltynewicz is an elite play in all formats.

Batter Grind Down

Miami

The Marlins have one of the worst offenses in baseball and their lineup looks even worse than usual, as they take on a talented pitcher in Mike Foltynewicz. In addition to having an elite strikeout rate, he has held both left and right-handed hitters under a .320 xwOBA this season. Anything can happen in baseball (especially in a somewhat meaningless game in August), but that’s not enough of a reason to target the Marlins’ offense tonight.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

#	Player	Bats	xwOBA	ISO	HC%	BB%	K%	GB%	FD Pos.	FD Sal.	DK Pos.	DK Sal.	FDRFT Pos.	FDRFT Sal.
1	Rafael Ortega	LEFT	0.342	0.000	33.3%	7.1%	7.1%	50.0%	OF	$2,000	OF	$3,300	LF	$6,300
2	Miguel Rojas	RIGHT	0.300	0.102	28.3%	3.9%	13.4%	53.1%	3B	$2,300	3B/SS	$3,500	SS	$6,900
3	Starlin Castro	RIGHT	0.319	0.117	36.9%	5.6%	19.4%	49.3%	2B	$2,500	2B	$3,400	2B	$6,800
4	Brian Anderson	RIGHT	0.349	0.118	37.9%	6.6%	17.0%	53.4%	OF	$2,700	3B/OF	$3,800	IF/OF	$7,400
5	Derek Dietrich	LEFT	0.333	0.158	36.3%	6.3%	23.9%	39.3%	OF	$2,800	OF	$4,000	IF/OF	$7,400
6	Martin Prado	RIGHT	0.282	0.065	28.9%	4.3%	20.4%	47.9%	3B	$2,200	3B	$2,700	3B	$5,500
7	Bryan Holaday	RIGHT	0.264	0.023	20.6%	7.1%	16.3%	41.1%	C	$2,000	C	$2,700	C	$5,700
8	Magneuris Sierra	LEFT	0.150	0.023	17.1%	0.0%	22.2%	62.1%	OF	$2,000	OF	$2,800	CF	$5,600
9	Merandy Gonzalez	RIGHT	0.000	0.000	0.0%	0.0%	100.0%	0.0%	P	$5,500	P	$5,100	P	$10,400
	Team Averages		0.260	0.067	26.6%	4.5%	26.6%	44.0%

Elite Plays – None

Secondary Plays – None

Stackability – RED

Atlanta

The Braves are one of the top stacks of the slate. They are facing a rookie pitcher that had awful numbers at the Double-A level earlier this season. Not only that, but with this being the second half of a double-header, we could see a tired Marlins’ bullpen (that isn’t very good to begin with). Batters from both sides of the plate are viable here and I see each of the first five batters in this lineup as elite plays at their respective positions — Ronald Acuna, Ozzie Albies, Freddie Freeman, Nick Markakis, and Adam Duvall.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

#	Player	Bats	xwOBA	ISO	HC%	BB%	K%	GB%	FD Pos.	FD Sal.	DK Pos.	DK Sal.	FDRFT Pos.	FDRFT Sal.
1	Ronald Acuna	RIGHT	0.369	0.254	45.8%	6.4%	29.9%	39.8%	OF	$3,900	OF	$4,800	LF	$8,800
2	Ozzie Albies	SWITCH	0.309	0.214	35.0%	4.9%	18.2%	36.7%	2B	$3,900	2B	$4,700	2B	$9,400
3	Freddie Freeman	LEFT	0.418	0.186	44.4%	13.4%	16.9%	36.8%	1B	$4,200	1B	$4,800	1B	$8,600
4	Nick Markakis	LEFT	0.404	0.183	42.9%	10.3%	9.1%	40.2%	OF	$3,700	OF	$4,800	RF	$9,200
5	Adam Duvall	RIGHT	0.333	0.180	33.7%	7.1%	28.9%	33.1%	OF	$2,800	OF	$3,400	IF/OF	$6,800
6	Charlie Culberson	RIGHT	0.262	0.220	34.1%	5.9%	28.7%	48.8%	2B	$2,800	3B/OF	$3,900	SS	$7,500
7	Tyler Flowers	RIGHT	0.332	0.067	47.1%	8.1%	25.7%	41.2%	C	$2,700	C	$3,200	C	$6,500
8	Dansby Swanson	RIGHT	0.275	0.142	31.9%	6.8%	22.7%	45.0%	SS	$2,400	SS	$2,900	SS	$5,600
9	Mike Foltynewicz	RIGHT	0.040	0.031	20.0%	0.0%	70.6%	66.7%	P	$8,900	P	$10,500	P	$20,700
	Team Averages		0.305	0.164	37.2%	7.0%	27.9%	43.1%

Elite Plays – Ronald Acuna, Ozzie Albies, Freddie Freeman, Nick Markakis, Adam Duvall (GPP), Tyler Flowers (DK)

Secondary Plays – Adam Duvall (Cash), Tyler Flowers (FD)

Stackability – GREEN

Arizona at Texas – 8:05 PM ET

Stats	wOBA	xwOBA	HC%	HR/9	K%	GB%	Stats	wOBA	xwOBA	HC%	HR/9	K%	GB%
Arizona								Texas
			Zack Greinke							Bartolo Colon
			RIGHT							RIGHT
			Vegas Moneyline							Vegas Over/Under
			ARI-160							9.5
SP vs. Left (2016-17)	0.270	0.317	36.6%	0.84	22.9%	45.1%	SP vs. Left (2016-17)	0.333	0.371	42.5%	0.90	12.3%	42.7%
SP vs. Right (2016-17)	0.289	0.318	44.5%	1.47	27.4%	40.1%	SP vs. Right (2016-17)	0.357	0.369	43.6%	2.56	13.8%	44.0%

Pitcher Grind Down

	Stats	Starts	SIERA	ERA	K%	BB%	GB%	HC%	SC%	aFV	SwS%
Zack Greinke
	FanDuel				DraftKings				FantasyDraft
	Salary:			$10,200	Salary:			$9,700	Salary:		$18,400
	Salary Rank:			4 of 20	Salary Rank:			6 of 20	Salary Rank:		6 of 20
	2017	32	3.48	3.20	26.8%	5.6%	46.8%	35.1%	19.2%	91.0	12.4%
	2018	24	3.42	2.89	25.4%	4.9%	42.3%	40.9%	17.0%	89.5	11.2%
	L14	2	4.77	2.08	18.0%	10.0%	47.2%	33.3%	16.7%	90.2	10.1%

Greinke is one of the most talented pitchers to take the mound, but there are few worse spots to be in than facing the Rangers in the heat of Texas. Not only is this a bad matchup, but the game will be played under American League rules, which means Greinke won’t be able to face the opposing pitcher in the lineup. Despite a 3.42 SIERA and a strikeout rate of 25% this season, Greinke is too risky for my liking. He’s a fly-ball pitcher that gives up a lot of hard contact, which could be troublesome in this ballpark.

Quick Breakdown: Give me Foltynewicz over Greinke in both cash games and tournaments.

	Stats	Starts	SIERA	ERA	K%	BB%	GB%	HC%	SC%	aFV	SwS%
Bartolo Colon
	FanDuel				DraftKings				FantasyDraft
	Salary:			$5,500	Salary:			$4,500	Salary:		$9,400
	Salary Rank:			17 of 20	Salary Rank:			17 of 20	Salary Rank:		17 of 20
	2017	28	5.08	6.48	13.7%	5.4%	41.8%	35.8%	17.8%	87.8	5.4%
	2018	21	4.76	5.18	13.1%	4.0%	43.4%	43.1%	15.0%	87.5	5.3%
	L14	2	5.63	6.75	7.7%	3.9%	42.2%	52.2%	8.7%	87.6	4.4%

Colon is a fun story, but he’s a bad major league pitcher. In 21 starts, he has a 4.76 SIERA with a strikeout rate of 13%. He has an above-average fly-ball rate and has given up a hard contact rate of 43%. He basically only throws fastballs at this point of his career and most are stuck in the mid-80s in terms of MPH. He’s an easy fade tonight against the Diamondbacks, whose projected lineup has an average xwOBA of .334 with a .186 ISO and a 39% hard contact rate against right-handed pitching.

Quick Breakdown: Avoid Colon in all formats.

Batter Grind Down

Arizona

The Diamondbacks see a favorable ballpark shift playing in Texas and draw one of the best matchups of the slate. While it’s not going to be as hot as usual in Texas (low 80s), this is still a great spot to load up on the Diamondbacks. Bartolo Colon has one of the lowest strikeout rates in baseball and he has allowed a .365+ xwOBA and a 42%+ hard contact rate to both left and right-handed hitters this season. There are five batters in this lineup that have an ISO of at least .200 against right-handed pitching this season — David Peralta, Paul Goldschmidt, A.J. Pollock, Eduardo Escobar, and Daniel Descalso.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

#	Player	Bats	xwOBA	ISO	HC%	BB%	K%	GB%	FD Pos.	FD Sal.	DK Pos.	DK Sal.	FDRFT Pos.	FDRFT Sal.
1	David Peralta	LEFT	0.386	0.260	49.0%	7.8%	17.8%	48.8%	OF	$3,700	OF	$5,700	RF	$10,000
2	Paul Goldschmidt	RIGHT	0.385	0.236	45.2%	12.2%	27.4%	40.1%	1B	$4,300	1B	$4,700	1B	$8,900
3	A.J. Pollock	RIGHT	0.366	0.218	45.6%	7.1%	22.3%	42.6%	OF	$3,600	OF	$4,900	CF	$9,100
4	Eduardo Escobar	SWITCH	0.368	0.299	41.1%	7.4%	21.5%	26.9%	3B	$3,900	3B/SS	$4,600	3B	$9,100
5	Steven Souza	RIGHT	0.269	0.104	31.4%	8.4%	24.3%	35.7%	OF	$3,000	OF	$4,400	RF	$8,600
6	Ketel Marte	SWITCH	0.299	0.122	30.2%	7.9%	14.4%	53.5%	2B	$3,100	2B/SS	$4,200	SS	$8,200
7	Daniel Descalso	LEFT	0.364	0.202	39.7%	17.4%	23.4%	28.8%	2B	$2,400	2B/3B	$4,200	3B	$8,300
8	Nick Ahmed	RIGHT	0.312	0.183	38.6%	7.2%	20.7%	39.9%	SS	$2,600	SS	$4,200	SS	$8,300
9	Jeff Mathis	RIGHT	0.257	0.052	32.4%	7.5%	28.3%	36.9%	C	$2,100	C	$2,700	C	$5,700
	Team Averages		0.334	0.186	39.2%	9.2%	22.2%	39.2%

Elite Plays – David Peralta, Paul Goldschmidt, A.J. Pollock, Eduardo Escobar, Daniel Descalso

Secondary Plays – Steven Souza, Ketel Marte

Stackability – GREEN

Texas

We can afford to be picky in large slates. We don’t have to take a stand in every matchup. While I don’t love the idea of playing Zack Greinke against the Rangers, I’m not sure that I want to play any of the Rangers’ hitters against Greinke. He has an above-average strikeout rate and he has held both left and right-handed hitters under a .320 xwOBA this season.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

#	Player	Bats	xwOBA	ISO	HC%	BB%	K%	GB%	FD Pos.	FD Sal.	DK Pos.	DK Sal.	FDRFT Pos.	FDRFT Sal.
1	Shin-Soo Choo	LEFT	0.415	0.236	45.1%	15.8%	22.3%	47.8%	OF	$3,500	OF	$4,700	RF	$8,900
2	Rougned Odor	LEFT	0.358	0.230	43.8%	8.9%	23.6%	37.9%	2B	$3,900	2B	$4,900	2B	$8,900
3	Elvis Andrus	RIGHT	0.302	0.133	34.0%	6.1%	14.8%	52.3%	SS	$3,400	SS	$4,000	SS	$7,400
4	Adrian Beltre	RIGHT	0.336	0.140	41.4%	6.7%	20.9%	40.9%	3B	$3,000	3B	$3,500	3B	$6,700
5	Jurickson Profar	SWITCH	0.330	0.188	34.9%	8.4%	14.8%	45.0%	1B	$3,500	3B/SS	$4,400	SS	$8,400
6	Joey Gallo	LEFT	0.397	0.258	47.6%	15.1%	32.9%	30.1%	OF	$3,400	1B/OF	$4,600	1B	$9,400
7	Robinson Chirinos	RIGHT	0.317	0.208	48.0%	9.2%	36.3%	31.5%	C	$2,600	C	$3,900	C	$7,500
8	Ronald Guzman	LEFT	0.307	0.194	32.6%	9.4%	31.0%	40.4%	1B	$2,500	1B	$4,100	1B	$8,400
9	Delino DeShields	RIGHT	0.240	0.061	24.7%	11.2%	25.3%	48.4%	OF	$2,000	OF	$3,500	CF	$6,700
	Team Averages		0.334	0.183	39.1%	10.1%	24.7%	41.6%

Elite Plays – None

Secondary Plays – Shin-Soo Choo (GPP)

Stackability – ORANGE

Note: Unless noted, all statistics in the Grind Down are from the 2018 season.

MLB Grind Down: Monday, August 13th

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Stackability Rating System:

Implied Run Totals

Ballpark Ratings

NY Mets at NY Yankees – 7:05 PM ET

Pitcher Grind Down

Batter Grind Down

NY Mets

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

NY Yankees

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

Chicago White Sox at Detroit – 7:10 PM ET

Pitcher Grind Down

Batter Grind Down

Chicago White Sox

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

Detroit

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

Cleveland at Cincinnati – 7:10 PM ET

Pitcher Grind Down

Batter Grind Down

Cleveland

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

Cincinnati

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

Miami at Atlanta – 7:35 PM ET

Pitcher Grind Down

Batter Grind Down

Miami

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

Atlanta

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

Arizona at Texas – 8:05 PM ET

Pitcher Grind Down

Batter Grind Down

Arizona

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

Texas

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

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