MLB Grind Down: Monday, June 18th

by Derek Farnsworth (Notorious) Last Updated 2018-06-19 02:58:48

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The RotoGrinders MLB Grind Down will give you an in-depth analysis into the upcoming MLB schedule. This article will break down the numbers for every single game and give you analysis on which trends you can exploit. While matchups are a major factor in daily fantasy baseball, there are plenty of other factors to consider such as injuries, weather, and salaries.

The analysis should point you in the right direction, but it is still up to you to decipher the information and make your own selections. No sport has more variance than baseball. The best choice is not always the right choice but following the trends will win you money over time.

Note: As always, if you want to try a new DFS site, be sure to click through a RotoGrinders link and use our DraftKings promo code, FanDuel promo code, and FantasyDraft promo code to receive the best perks in the industry.

Stackability Rating System:

GREEN – A viable full stack in cash games and GPPs.
YELLOW – A viable mini-stack in cash games and full stack in GPPs.
ORANGE – A viable stack in large field GPPs.
RED – Not a recommended stack for cash games or GPPs.

Implied Run Totals

Ballpark Ratings

NY Yankees at Washington – 7:05 PM ET

Stats	wOBA	xwOBA	HC%	BB%	K%	GB%	Stats	wOBA	xwOBA	HC%	BB%	K%	GB%
NY Yankees								Washington
			Sonny Gray							Erick Fedde
			RIGHT							RIGHT
			Vegas Moneyline							Vegas Over/Under
			NYY-111							9.0
SP vs. Left (2016-17)	0.313	0.352	37.9%	13.2%	20.1%	45.7%	SP vs. Left (2016-17)	0.318	0.375	43.8%	8.7%	21.7%	62.5%
SP vs. Right (2016-17)	0.354	0.342	30.7%	8.1%	18.8%	48.2%	SP vs. Right (2016-17)	0.384	0.429	47.1%	0.0%	19.1%	41.2%

Pitcher Grind Down

	Stats	Starts	SIERA	ERA	K%	BB%	GB%	HC%	SC%
Sonny Gray
	FanDuel			DraftKings			FantasyDraft
	Salary:		$7,700	Salary:			Salary:
	Salary Rank:		7 of 20	Salary Rank:		of 20	Salary Rank:
	2017	27	4.08	3.55	22.6%	8.4%	52.8%	28.0%	16.8%
	2018	13	4.58	4.98	19.4%	10.5%	47.1%	34.0%	17.2%
	L14	2	3.77	2.77	19.6%	8.7%	57.6%	30.3%	24.2%

I hope everyone had a great Father’s Day, whether you were celebrating your own or as one yourself. We have ten games on the schedule tonight, but this one is only included in the main slate on FanDuel. The Yankees and Nationals will finish their suspended game from yesterday before playing this game which is scheduled to start at 7:05 PM ET. Gray will take the mound and he comes into the game in good form, posting a 3.77 SIERA with a strikeout rate of 20% and a ground ball rate of 58% over his last two starts. The issue is a matchup against the Nationals, who have one of the most talented offenses in baseball. Their projected lineup for tonight’s game has a .351 xwOBA against right-handed pitching this season.

Quick Breakdown: Avoid Gray in both cash games and tournaments.

	Stats	Starts	SIERA	ERA	K%	BB%	GB%	HC%	SC%
Erick Fedde
	FanDuel			DraftKings			FantasyDraft
	Salary:		$5,500	Salary:			Salary:
	Salary Rank:		19 of 20	Salary Rank:		of 20	Salary Rank:
	2017	3	4.45	9.39	19.7%	10.5%	61.7%	34.6%	15.4%
	2018	2	3.67	5.91	20.5%	4.6%	51.5%	45.5%	18.2%
	L14	1	3.93	7.20	14.3%	4.8%	64.7%	58.8%	11.8%

Fedde is making his third major league start of the season. His strong numbers (3.67 SIERA with a strikeout rate of 21% and ground ball rate of 52%) are backed by a good track record in the minors this season — 2.70 FIP with a strikeout rate of 25%. While the future is bright, the immediate future is cloudy with a chance of meatballs. The Yankees will lose the use of the DH in this series, but their projected lineup still has a .348 xwOBA with a .240 ISO against right-handed pitching this season. We rarely see games in this ballpark with a total of 9.0 runs, which is a red flag for both of these starting pitchers.

Quick Breakdown: Fedde is a pitcher to keep an eye on, but he should be avoided in all formats tonight against the Yankees.

Batter Grind Down

NY Yankees

The Yankees are playing on the road in a National League ballpark (no DH) and are facing a talented young righty in Erick Fedde. Even in a pitcher-friendly ballpark, they still have a high implied total, which shows how much respect the betting markets have for this offense. The sample size is small (five starts over the last two seasons), but Fedde has allowed a .506 wOBA with a 42% hard contact rate to right-handed hitters. This bodes well for a right-handed heavy Yankees’ offense that has mashed right-handed pitching all season. On FanDuel, Aaron Judge and Gary Sanchez are two of the top plays at their respective positions and I wouldn’t rule out a full stack that includes Brett Gardner, Didi Gregorius, Giancarlo Stanton, and/or Greg Bird.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

#	Player	Bats	xwOBA	L15	ISO	HC%	BB%	K%	GB%	FD Pos.	FD Sal.	FDRFT Pos.	FDRFT Sal.
1	Brett Gardner	LEFT	0.312	0.297	0.163	32.4%	12.3%	16.5%	48.6%	OF	$3,200	N/A	N/A
2	Aaron Judge	RIGHT	0.417	0.359	0.320	48.4%	14.0%	28.8%	45.9%	OF	$4,900	N/A	N/A
3	Didi Gregorius	LEFT	0.352	0.368	0.270	40.9%	10.0%	14.5%	33.1%	SS	$4,100	N/A	N/A
4	Giancarlo Stanton	RIGHT	0.304	0.321	0.168	33.6%	8.8%	32.7%	52.5%	OF	$4,200	N/A	N/A
5	Gary Sanchez	RIGHT	0.330	0.245	0.217	34.8%	9.9%	26.0%	42.6%	C	$3,400	N/A	N/A
6	Greg Bird	LEFT	0.287	0.301	0.291	40.0%	3.4%	25.9%	42.5%	1B	$3,100	N/A	N/A
7	Miguel Andujar	RIGHT	0.385	0.382	0.228	36.2%	3.6%	17.6%	50.0%	3B	$3,500	N/A	N/A
8	Gleyber Torres	RIGHT	0.397	0.340	0.263	39.3%	5.4%	27.7%	30.1%	2B	$4,000	N/A	N/A
9	Sonny Gray	RIGHT								P	$7,700	N/A	N/A
	Team Averages		0.348	0.327	0.240	38.2%	8.4%	23.7%	43.2%

Elite Plays – Aaron Judge, Gary Sanchez

Secondary Plays – Brett Gardner, Didi Gregorius, Giancarlo Stanton, Greg Bird

Stackability – YELLOW / GREEN

Washington

The Nationals are an offense that should make big strides moving forward. With Adam Eaton and Daniel Murphy back in the lineup, they now have one of the most formidable offenses in the National League. Tonight’s matchup against Sonny Gray isn’t perfect, but on the season he has allowed a .352 xwOBA to lefties and a .342 xwOBA to righties. As mentioned above, this game has a high total for this ballpark, which gives a bump to both offenses. Adam Eaton (.474 xwOBA), Trea Turner (.334 xwOBA), Bryce Harper (.423 xwOBA), and Anthony Rendon (.381 xwOBA) have all mashed right-handed pitching this season.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

#	Player	Bats	xwOBA	L15	ISO	HC%	BB%	K%	GB%	FD Pos.	FD Sal.	FDRFT Pos.	FDRFT Sal.
1	Adam Eaton	LEFT	0.474	0.230	0.244	55.6%	6.5%	10.9%	41.7%	OF	$3,800	N/A	N/A
2	Trea Turner	RIGHT	0.334	0.287	0.139	33.8%	9.7%	19.9%	54.7%	SS	$3,800	N/A	N/A
3	Bryce Harper	LEFT	0.423	0.289	0.305	46.4%	18.4%	22.1%	36.6%	OF	$4,300	N/A	N/A
4	Anthony Rendon	RIGHT	0.381	0.365	0.183	35.2%	10.6%	13.4%	36.4%	3B	$3,400	N/A	N/A
5	Daniel Murphy	LEFT	0.295	0.245	0.000	10.0%	8.3%	8.3%	20.0%	2B	$3,400	N/A	N/A
6	Juan Soto	LEFT	0.342	0.363	0.130	36.4%	13.2%	24.5%	42.4%	OF	$3,500	N/A	N/A
7	Wilmer Difo	SWITCH	0.309	0.266	0.113	17.4%	9.9%	13.8%	47.7%	2B	$2,200	N/A	N/A
8	Pedro Severino	RIGHT	0.252	0.145	0.054	22.9%	9.5%	21.0%	44.9%	C	$2,000	N/A	N/A
9	Erick Fedde	RIGHT	0.347		0.000	0.0%	50.0%	50.0%	0.0%	P	$5,500	N/A	N/A
	Team Averages		0.351	0.274	0.130	28.6%	15.1%	20.4%	36.0%

Elite Plays – Adam Eaton, Bryce Harper

Secondary Plays – Trea Turner, Anthony Rendon, Daniel Murphy, Juan Soto

Stackability – YELLOW

Milwaukee at Pittsburgh – 7:05 PM ET

Stats	wOBA	xwOBA	HC%	BB%	K%	GB%	Stats	wOBA	xwOBA	HC%	BB%	K%	GB%
Milwaukee								Pittsburgh
			Jhoulys Chacin							Trevor Williams
			RIGHT							RIGHT
			Vegas Moneyline							Vegas Over/Under
			MIL-110							9.0
SP vs. Left (2016-17)	0.327	0.354	38.9%	11.5%	14.3%	44.1%	SP vs. Left (2016-17)	0.335	0.353	25.0%	9.7%	9.0%	38.9%
SP vs. Right (2016-17)	0.249	0.289	40.9%	7.5%	23.8%	35.5%	SP vs. Right (2016-17)	0.297	0.333	32.5%	7.2%	22.8%	43.8%

Pitcher Grind Down

	Stats	Starts	SIERA	ERA	K%	BB%	GB%	HC%	SC%
Jhoulys Chacin
	FanDuel			DraftKings			FantasyDraft
	Salary:		$7,400	Salary:		$7,500	Salary:		$14,800
	Salary Rank:		10 of 20	Salary Rank:		9 of 20	Salary Rank:		10 of 20
	2017	32	4.63	3.89	20.0%	9.4%	49.1%	28.5%	20.2%
	2018	15	4.71	3.32	18.7%	9.7%	40.2%	39.8%	17.8%
	L14	2	3.55	2.92	27.5%	7.8%	35.5%	37.5%	15.6%

Chacin has been in good form over the last few weeks, but are we supposed to believe that a 30-year old pitcher has suddenly found it? I’ll trust the larger sample size here. For years, he has been a slightly below-average pitcher that we’ve been able to target left-handed hitters against. While Chacin will be playing in a pitcher-friendly ballpark, the Pirates are projected to have four lefties in their lineup tonight and they all boast a .325+ xwOBA against right-handed pitching this season.

Quick Breakdown: In what amounts to a pick ‘em game with a total of 9.0 runs, Chacin is an easy fade in all formats.

	Stats	Starts	SIERA	ERA	K%	BB%	GB%	HC%	SC%
Trevor Williams
	FanDuel			DraftKings			FantasyDraft
	Salary:		$5,800	Salary:		$5,000	Salary:		$10,100
	Salary Rank:		16 of 20	Salary Rank:		17 of 20	Salary Rank:		17 of 20
	2017	25	4.63	4.07	18.2%	8.1%	48.0%	28.9%	21.8%
	2018	14	4.82	4.38	16.4%	8.4%	41.3%	28.8%	23.2%
	L14	2	5.25	10.50	12.1%	12.1%	60.0%	40.0%	32.0%

Williams doesn’t offer a lot when it comes to upside in daily fantasy baseball. In his 14 starts this season, he has a 4.82 SIERA with a strikeout rate of 8%. He comes into tonight’s start in bad form and he draws a fairly difficult matchup against the Brewers. Milwaukee’s projected lineup has a .328 xwOBA and a 37% hard contact rate against right-handed pitching this season. Even though there is some strikeout upside in this matchup, Williams offers more risk than upside in a game that features a total of 9.0 runs.

Quick Breakdown: Avoid Williams in both cash games and tournaments.

Batter Grind Down

Milwaukee

The Brewers aren’t playing in the most hitter-friendly of ballparks, but they draw a favorable matchup against Trevor Williams, who has allowed a .353 xwOBA to lefties and a .333 xwOBA to righties this season. The Brewers’ lineup is weak at the bottom, but each of the first five hitters have good numbers against right-handed pitching, specifically Eric Thames (.416 xwOBA), Christian Yelich (.399 xwOBA), and Travis Shaw (.421 xwOBA). A full stack isn’t a bad approach, as the Brewers should fly under the radar in large tournaments.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

#	Player	Bats	xwOBA	L15	ISO	HC%	BB%	K%	GB%	FD Pos.	FD Sal.	DK Pos.	DK Sal.	FDRFT Pos.	FDRFT Sal.
1	Eric Thames	LEFT	0.416	0.254	0.354	47.7%	11.0%	28.8%	36.4%	1B	$3,200	1B	$4,800	1B	$9,400
2	Christian Yelich	LEFT	0.399	0.364	0.201	46.3%	10.8%	22.2%	49.6%	OF	$3,800	OF	$4,700	CF	$9,200
3	Lorenzo Cain	RIGHT	0.325	0.320	0.116	35.3%	12.6%	19.1%	59.0%	OF	$3,700	OF	$4,700	CF	$9,300
4	Travis Shaw	LEFT	0.421	0.316	0.313	40.3%	14.4%	16.7%	34.0%	3B	$3,600	3B	$4,100	3B	$8,400
5	Ryan Braun	RIGHT	0.329	0.406	0.184	33.7%	4.8%	25.3%	45.5%	OF	$3,300	1B/OF	$4,400	LF	$8,500
6	Jonathan Villar	SWITCH	0.258	0.289	0.091	33.0%	6.0%	31.3%	66.3%	2B	$2,800	2B	$3,600	2B	$7,300
7	Erik Kratz	RIGHT	0.435	0.348	0.368	55.6%	0.0%	4.5%	38.9%	C	$2,800	C	$3,200	C	$6,500
8	Orlando Arcia	RIGHT	0.225	0.194	0.070	23.1%	4.1%	25.7%	59.6%	SS	$2,000	SS	$2,800	SS	$5,800
9	Jhoulys Chacin	RIGHT	0.148	0.207	0.000	20.0%	0.0%	31.8%	69.2%	P	$7,400	P	$7,500	P	$14,800
	Team Averages		0.328	0.300	0.189	37.2%	7.1%	22.8%	50.9%

Elite Plays – Eric Thames, Christian Yelich, Travis Shaw

Secondary Plays – Lorenzo Cain, Ryan Braun

Stackability – YELLOW

Pittsburgh

The Pirates have an easy matchup to break down. Let’s quickly look at the splits for Jhoulys Chacin this season:

vs. left-handed hitters: .354 xwOBA, 12% walk rate, 14% strikeout rate
vs. right-handed hitters: .289 xwOBA, 8% walk rate, 24% strikeout rate

This doesn’t mean that we have to automatically fade the righties in this lineup, but we should certainly prefer the lefties. Austin Meadows, Colin Moran, and Corey Dickerson all bat from the left side and all have shown upside against right-handed pitching this season. Francisco Cervelli should also be considered on DraftKings ($3,800), as he boasts a .416 xwOBA against righties this season.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

#	Player	Bats	xwOBA	L15	ISO	HC%	BB%	K%	GB%	FD Pos.	FD Sal.	DK Pos.	DK Sal.	FDRFT Pos.	FDRFT Sal.
1	Josh Harrison	RIGHT	0.314	0.380	0.125	35.0%	5.3%	15.0%	33.3%	2B	$3,300	2B	$3,900	2B	$7,300
2	Austin Meadows	LEFT	0.330	0.306	0.183	39.2%	1.6%	16.1%	35.3%	OF	$3,000	OF	$4,300	CF	$8,400
3	Starling Marte	RIGHT	0.299	0.308	0.156	27.8%	6.6%	19.4%	46.8%	OF	$3,500	OF	$4,500	CF	$9,300
4	Colin Moran	LEFT	0.375	0.411	0.167	34.0%	9.8%	15.5%	39.7%	3B	$2,700	3B	$3,300	3B	$6,700
5	Corey Dickerson	LEFT	0.346	0.314	0.172	34.3%	4.4%	10.8%	31.0%	OF	$2,800	OF	$3,800	LF	$7,200
6	Francisco Cervelli	RIGHT	0.416	0.354	0.262	38.2%	12.9%	19.0%	33.3%	C	$3,000	C	$3,800	C	$7,500
7	Josh Bell	SWITCH	0.328	0.322	0.138	31.4%	10.3%	17.8%	51.0%	1B	$3,100	1B	$3,500	1B	$6,500
8	Jordy Mercer	RIGHT	0.346	0.449	0.163	28.6%	8.1%	18.9%	39.8%	SS	$2,700	SS	$3,200	SS	$6,700
9	Trevor Williams	RIGHT	0.104	0.032	0.000	0.0%	0.0%	36.4%	66.7%	P	$5,800	P	$5,000	P	$10,100
	Team Averages		0.318	0.320	0.152	29.8%	6.6%	18.8%	41.9%

Elite Plays – Austin Meadow, Colin Moran, Corey Dickerson

Secondary Plays – Josh Harrison, Francisco Cervelli (DK)

Stackability – YELLOW

St. Louis at Philadelphia – 7:05 PM ET

Stats	wOBA	xwOBA	HC%	BB%	K%	GB%	Stats	wOBA	xwOBA	HC%	BB%	K%	GB%
St. Louis								Philadelphia
			Miles Mikolas							Nick Pivetta
			RIGHT							RIGHT
			Vegas Moneyline							Vegas Over/Under
			PHI-109							8.5
SP vs. Left (2016-17)	0.303	0.326	39.7%	1.7%	15.7%	45.5%	SP vs. Left (2016-17)	0.316	0.358	31.6%	9.0%	24.1%	38.7%
SP vs. Right (2016-17)	0.199	0.249	28.5%	3.8%	22.0%	59.1%	SP vs. Right (2016-17)	0.288	0.275	27.0%	5.1%	29.5%	44.7%

Pitcher Grind Down

	Stats	Starts	SIERA	ERA	K%	BB%	GB%	HC%	SC%
Miles Mikolas
	FanDuel			DraftKings			FantasyDraft
	Salary:		$9,500	Salary:		$8,300	Salary:		$16,000
	Salary Rank:		3 of 20	Salary Rank:		6 of 20	Salary Rank:		6 of 20

	2018	13	3.55	2.43	18.7%	2.7%	51.6%	34.7%	18.7%
	L14	2	3.36	2.08	20.0%	2.0%	57.9%	35.9%	20.5%

Mikolas doesn’t have an elite strikeout rate, but that doesn’t mean that he’s not an elite pitcher when it comes to DFS. He has great control, which allows him to pitch deep into games (at least six innings in five straight starts). On the season, he owns a 3.55 SIERA with a 19% strikeout rate and a 52% ground ball rate. His ownership should be reasonable tonight, as he takes on the Phillies in a home run-friendly ballpark. There is plenty of upside in this matchup, as the Phillies’ projected lineup has an average strikeout rate of 27% against right-handed pitching this season.

Quick Breakdown: Mikolas is a great tournament play, especially at a price of $8,300 on DraftKings.

	Stats	Starts	SIERA	ERA	K%	BB%	GB%	HC%	SC%
Nick Pivetta
	FanDuel			DraftKings			FantasyDraft
	Salary:		$7,500	Salary:		$7,300	Salary:		$14,900
	Salary Rank:		9 of 20	Salary Rank:		10 of 20	Salary Rank:		9 of 20
	2017	26	4.32	6.02	24.0%	9.8%	43.8%	35.5%	15.9%
	2018	14	3.43	4.25	26.9%	7.0%	41.7%	29.2%	14.9%
	L14	2	4.00	9.00	23.4%	8.5%	44.8%	41.9%	16.1%

Pivetta is better than people want to give him credit for. In 14 starts this season, he has a 3.43 SIERA with a strikeout rate of 27% and a hard contact rate of 29%. If we take the name away and look strictly at the numbers, we should be chomping at the bit to target a pitcher with this type of upside at this price point. The Cardinals have hit right-handed pitching well this season, but Pivetta will have the platoon advantage in this matchup. St. Louis will likely have seven righties in their lineup tonight and Pivetta has held right-handed hitters to a .275 xwOBA with a 30% strikeout rate. All aboard the Pivetta train tonight.

Quick Breakdown: Pivetta is an elite tournament play and a decent SP2 in cash games on multi-pitcher sites.

Batter Grind Down

St. Louis

The Cardinals are playing in a hitter-friendly ballpark, but they don’t have enough left-handed hitters to truly take advantage of a matchup against Nick Pivetta. On the season, Pivetta has allowed a .358 xwOBA and a 32% hard contact rate to lefties. This brings Matt Carpenter into play, who owns a .405 xwOBA and a 49% hard contact rate against right-handed pitching. The rest of the lineup is at a disadvantage, as Pivetta has been dominant against righties all season. I rarely employ this strategy, but this is actually a spot where you might be able to get away with playing both Carpenter and Pivetta in the same lineup.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

#	Player	Bats	xwOBA	L15	ISO	HC%	BB%	K%	GB%	FD Pos.	FD Sal.	DK Pos.	DK Sal.	FDRFT Pos.	FDRFT Sal.
1	Matt Carpenter	LEFT	0.405	0.381	0.197	48.5%	12.4%	24.8%	22.4%	3B	$3,500	2B/3B	$3,800	3B	$7,300
2	Tommy Pham	RIGHT	0.367	0.359	0.167	46.6%	11.0%	25.7%	50.0%	OF	$3,800	OF	$4,600	CF	$8,900
3	Jose Martinez	RIGHT	0.430	0.474	0.212	42.2%	8.3%	13.9%	49.4%	1B	$3,900	1B	$4,600	IF/OF	$9,400
4	Marcell Ozuna	RIGHT	0.372	0.537	0.141	46.5%	5.7%	18.9%	47.2%	OF	$4,300	OF	$4,200	LF	$8,400
5	Yadier Molina	RIGHT	0.353	0.330	0.148	48.0%	5.6%	14.4%	47.0%	C	$2,700	C	$3,400	C	$6,800
6	Jedd Gyorko	RIGHT	0.263	0.234	0.084	36.4%	6.1%	26.1%	39.0%	2B	$2,500	2B/3B	$3,300	3B	$6,300
7	Dexter Fowler	SWITCH	0.295	0.223	0.135	36.3%	11.2%	18.4%	36.3%	OF	$2,700	OF	$3,200	CF	$6,400
8	Yairo Munoz	RIGHT	0.254	0.266	0.054	38.6%	3.9%	22.1%	59.6%	SS	$2,700	SS	$3,200	SS	$6,400
9	Miles Mikolas	RIGHT	0.203	0.074	0.167	20.0%	9.1%	45.5%	71.4%	P	$9,500	P	$8,300	P	$16,000
	Team Averages		0.327	0.320	0.145	40.3%	8.1%	23.3%	46.9%

Elite Plays – Matt Carpenter (GPP)

Secondary Plays – Matt Carpenter (Cash)

Stackability – ORANGE

Philadelphia

Miles Mikolas has similar splits to Nick Pivetta. On the season, he has held right-handed hitters to a .249 xwOBA with a 22% strikeout rate. Meanwhile, he has allowed a .326 xwOBA and a 40% hard contact rate to lefties. This isn’t a spot where I want to load up on the Phillies, but there are three hitters in particular that we can target in tournaments. Cesar Hernandez (.324 xwOBA), Carlos Santana (.389 xwOBA), and Nick Williams (.393 xwOBA) all hit right-handed pitching well and are playing at home in a hitter-friendly ballpark.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

#	Player	Bats	xwOBA	L15	ISO	HC%	BB%	K%	GB%	FD Pos.	FD Sal.	DK Pos.	DK Sal.	FDRFT Pos.	FDRFT Sal.
1	Cesar Hernandez	SWITCH	0.324	0.302	0.151	24.8%	13.5%	24.7%	42.2%	2B	$3,200	2B	$4,000	2B	$7,600
2	Rhys Hoskins	RIGHT	0.397	0.457	0.235	35.4%	13.6%	29.4%	30.3%	OF	$4,200	OF	$4,400	IF/OF	$8,500
3	Odubel Herrera	LEFT	0.307	0.234	0.137	25.2%	8.3%	21.2%	42.9%	OF	$3,100	OF	$3,500	IF/OF	$6,700
4	Carlos Santana	SWITCH	0.389	0.295	0.228	35.3%	19.0%	14.5%	37.1%	1B	$3,400	1B	$4,200	1B	$8,500
5	Scott Kingery	RIGHT	0.311	0.334	0.120	27.4%	6.7%	21.2%	40.0%	SS	$2,900	SS	$3,300	SS	$6,700
6	Nick Williams	LEFT	0.393	0.365	0.258	32.2%	9.0%	24.6%	46.0%	OF	$2,500	OF	$3,400	LF	$6,600
7	Jorge Alfaro	RIGHT	0.272	0.273	0.138	30.3%	3.3%	40.7%	53.0%	C	$2,400	C	$3,000	C	$5,900
8	Nick Pivetta	RIGHT	0.212	0.301	0.077	12.5%	6.7%	40.0%	71.4%	P	$7,500	P	$7,300	P	$14,900
9	J.P. Crawford	LEFT	0.300	0.358	0.149	23.5%	7.1%	28.6%	40.8%	SS	$2,300	3B/SS	$3,200	SS	$6,700
	Team Averages		0.323	0.324	0.166	27.4%	9.7%	27.2%	44.9%

Elite Plays – None

Secondary Plays – Cesar Hernandez, Carlos Santana, Nick Williams

Stackability – ORANGE

Chicago White Sox at Cleveland – 7:10 PM ET

Stats	wOBA	xwOBA	HC%	BB%	K%	GB%	Stats	wOBA	xwOBA	HC%	BB%	K%	GB%
Chicago White Sox								Cleveland
			Dylan Covey							Trevor Bauer
			RIGHT							RIGHT
			Vegas Moneyline							Vegas Over/Under
			CLE-280							8.5
SP vs. Left (2016-17)	0.299	0.289	26.8%	10.5%	24.4%	58.9%	SP vs. Left (2016-17)	0.263	0.273	37.4%	7.8%	31.3%	45.3%
SP vs. Right (2016-17)	0.229	0.298	32.7%	3.2%	19.1%	63.3%	SP vs. Right (2016-17)	0.270	0.300	38.4%	8.1%	31.0%	46.0%

Pitcher Grind Down

	Stats	Starts	SIERA	ERA	K%	BB%	GB%	HC%	SC%
Dylan Covey
	FanDuel			DraftKings			FantasyDraft
	Salary:		$7,200	Salary:		$7,000	Salary:		$13,500
	Salary Rank:		11 of 20	Salary Rank:		11 of 20	Salary Rank:		12 of 20
	2017	12	5.64	7.71	13.3%	11.0%	48.5%	36.5%	18.0%
	2018	6	3.47	2.29	22.2%	7.4%	61.0%	29.5%	19.1%
	L14	3	2.99	1.00	26.0%	5.5%	60.0%	14.0%	22.0%

It’s hard to do after what we saw from Covey last season, but we have to resist the temptation to stack against him. It turns out, he’s actually a decent major league pitcher. In his six starts, he has a 3.47 SIERA with a strikeout rate of 22% and a ground ball rate of 61%. When you combine that high of a ground ball rate with an above-average strikeout rate, you will consistently have success in the majors. I’m not going to target him tonight against the Indians (their projected lineup has a .369 xwOBA against right-handed pitching), but it’s time to stop stacking against him every time he takes the mound.

Quick Breakdown: Avoid Covey in both cash games and tournaments.

	Stats	Starts	SIERA	ERA	K%	BB%	GB%	HC%	SC%
Trevor Bauer
	FanDuel			DraftKings			FantasyDraft
	Salary:		$11,200	Salary:		$12,400	Salary:		$23,800
	Salary Rank:		1 of 20	Salary Rank:		2 of 20	Salary Rank:		2 of 20
	2017	31	3.80	4.19	26.2%	8.0%	46.4%	34.4%	15.0%
	2018	14	3.07	2.69	31.1%	8.0%	45.7%	37.9%	15.5%
	L14	2	2.02	2.30	39.3%	4.9%	39.4%	26.5%	17.7%

Bauer was one of my favorite sleepers all last season and he was consistently a great play in DFS. It’s crazy to say this, but he actually has better numbers than Corey Kluber this season (and Kluber’s numbers are still elite). In 14 starts, Bauer has a 3.07 SIERA with a strikeout rate of 31%. He’s expensive tonight, but the price is warranted, especially given his matchup. The projected lineup for the White Sox has a 24% strikeout rate against right-handed pitching. Not only that, but Bauer has held the current White Sox roster to a .233 wOBA with a 31% strikeout rate in 121 plate appearances. It’s hard to go wrong with Bauer or Gerrit Cole, so it’s not a bad night to make multiple lineups to get exposure to both.

Quick Breakdown: Bauer is an elite play in all formats, even at his elevated price point.

Batter Grind Down

Chicago White Sox

The White Sox haven’t been able to figure Trevor Bauer out in the past and we shouldn’t expect that to change tonight. He’s been in elite form this season and the White Sox are facing him on the road. They have one of the lowest implied run totals on the board. Bauer has held both left and right-handed hitters under a .300 xwOBA this season, which makes the White Sox an easy fade in all formats.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

#	Player	Bats	xwOBA	L15	ISO	HC%	BB%	K%	GB%	FD Pos.	FD Sal.	DK Pos.	DK Sal.	FDRFT Pos.	FDRFT Sal.
1	Yoan Moncada	SWITCH	0.377	0.314	0.210	42.0%	9.9%	34.7%	30.6%	2B	$2,900	2B	$3,400	2B	$6,300
2	Yolmer Sanchez	SWITCH	0.349	0.358	0.185	29.3%	4.7%	15.6%	45.3%	3B	$2,600	3B	$3,300	2B	$6,800
3	Jose Abreu	RIGHT	0.393	0.314	0.209	35.4%	6.0%	16.8%	40.0%	1B	$3,300	1B	$4,100	1B	$8,300
4	Daniel Palka	LEFT	0.333	0.254	0.220	38.8%	3.3%	31.1%	43.8%	OF	$2,400	OF	$3,300	IF/OF	$6,600
5	Matt Davidson	RIGHT	0.387	0.261	0.210	42.0%	13.4%	36.0%	37.0%	3B	$2,500	1B/3B	$3,300	3B	$6,700
6	Omar Narvaez	LEFT	0.318	0.393	0.128	27.5%	9.4%	18.8%	38.2%	C	$2,000	C	$2,700	C	$5,500
7	Tim Anderson	RIGHT	0.289	0.246	0.178	26.2%	8.8%	27.3%	43.8%	SS	$2,700	SS	$3,500	SS	$7,500
8	Charlie Tilson	LEFT	0.213	0.223	0.056	9.8%	1.7%	8.6%	64.6%	OF	$2,100	OF	$2,800	LF	$5,900
9	Adam Engel	RIGHT	0.249	0.302	0.085	24.4%	6.9%	29.2%	41.9%	OF	$2,000	OF	$2,700	CF	$5,500
	Team Averages		0.323	0.296	0.165	30.6%	7.1%	24.2%	42.8%

Elite Plays – None

Secondary Plays – None

Stackability – RED

Cleveland

The Indians are massive favorites and have one of the highest implied run totals on the board. Despite pitching well all season, Dylan Covey is not getting an respect from the betting markets. Personally, I’m more of a believer that a naysayer at this point. He has an elite ground ball rate and has held both left and right-handed hitters under a .300 xwOBA this season. He held the Indians to two runs in their last meeting and I’m expecting a similar result this time around. Francisco Lindor, Michael Brantley, Jose Ramirez, Edwin Encarnacion, and Yonder Alonso are all viable options, as they all boast a .375+ xwOBA against right-handed pitching. With that said, I like them better as one-offs than as a complete stack.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

#	Player	Bats	xwOBA	L15	ISO	HC%	BB%	K%	GB%	FD Pos.	FD Sal.	DK Pos.	DK Sal.	FDRFT Pos.	FDRFT Sal.
1	Francisco Lindor	SWITCH	0.400	0.337	0.260	41.5%	7.9%	20.7%	33.8%	SS	$4,900	SS	$5,100	SS	$10,000
2	Michael Brantley	LEFT	0.420	0.366	0.219	43.2%	7.0%	9.1%	43.9%	OF	$4,200	OF	$4,800	LF	$9,300
3	Jose Ramirez	SWITCH	0.424	0.453	0.362	35.9%	15.0%	12.3%	34.0%	3B	$5,000	3B	$5,400	IF/OF	$11,100
4	Edwin Encarnacion	RIGHT	0.380	0.398	0.267	37.9%	6.9%	25.4%	36.3%	1B	$3,600	1B	$4,900	1B	$9,000
5	Yonder Alonso	LEFT	0.379	0.344	0.190	36.7%	10.1%	21.7%	37.8%	1B	$3,300	1B	$3,600	1B	$7,700
6	Jason Kipnis	LEFT	0.352	0.296	0.091	36.9%	9.1%	18.7%	38.1%	2B	$2,900	2B	$3,300	2B	$6,600
7	Lonnie Chisenhall	LEFT	0.356	0.345	0.067	42.1%	9.6%	13.5%	32.4%	OF	$2,700	OF	$3,200	RF	$6,800
8	Tyler Naquin	LEFT	0.366	0.220	0.137	47.3%	3.8%	24.4%	54.5%	OF	$2,000	OF	$3,300	CF	$6,500
9	Roberto Perez	RIGHT	0.240	0.173	0.086	40.0%	8.9%	39.2%	53.8%	C	$2,000	C	$2,700	C	$5,800
	Team Averages		0.369	0.326	0.187	40.2%	8.7%	20.6%	40.5%

Elite Plays – Francisco Lindor

Secondary Plays – Michael Brantley, Jose Ramirez, Edwin Encarnacion, Yonder Alonso, Jason Kipnis

Stackability – YELLOW

LA Dodgers at Chicago Cubs – 8:05 PM ET

Stats	wOBA	xwOBA	HC%	BB%	K%	GB%	Stats	wOBA	xwOBA	HC%	BB%	K%	GB%
LA Dodgers								Chicago Cubs
			Kenta Maeda							Tyler Chatwood
			RIGHT							RIGHT
			Vegas Moneyline							Vegas Over/Under
			CHC-100							8.5
SP vs. Left (2016-17)	0.356	0.331	36.1%	9.5%	25.2%	38.3%	SP vs. Left (2016-17)	0.372	0.395	33.7%	19.4%	16.3%	51.5%
SP vs. Right (2016-17)	0.261	0.273	32.4%	7.6%	31.1%	37.1%	SP vs. Right (2016-17)	0.285	0.322	23.6%	20.5%	24.2%	63.4%

Pitcher Grind Down

	Stats	Starts	SIERA	ERA	K%	BB%	GB%	HC%	SC%
Kenta Maeda
	FanDuel			DraftKings			FantasyDraft
	Salary:		$8,300	Salary:		$9,300	Salary:		$17,600
	Salary Rank:		6 of 20	Salary Rank:		4 of 20	Salary Rank:		4 of 20
	2017	25	3.79	4.22	25.1%	6.1%	38.1%	28.3%	20.9%
	2018	11	3.48	3.61	28.1%	8.5%	37.7%	34.4%	18.2%
	L14	1	7.26	3.60	4.4%	13.0%	35.3%	27.8%	27.8%

Maeda struggled in his first start back from injury and now has to pitch on the road against a talented Cubs’ offense. While I’m still bullish on Maeda over the course of the rest of the season, I’d like to see a good outing from him before hopping back on board. The Cubs’ projected lineup has a .325 xwOBA with a strikeout rate of only 20% against right-handed pitching this season. With a handful of viable pitching options in the mid-range, I prefer to look elsewhere tonight.

Quick Breakdown: Maeda is incredibly talented, but I want to see him flash some form first.

	Stats	Starts	SIERA	ERA	K%	BB%	GB%	HC%	SC%
Tyler Chatwood
	FanDuel			DraftKings			FantasyDraft
	Salary:		$5,700	Salary:		$5,300	Salary:		$10,400
	Salary Rank:		17 of 20	Salary Rank:		16 of 20	Salary Rank:		16 of 20
	2017	25	4.78	4.69	19.0%	12.2%	58.1%	29.1%	22.1%
	2018	13	5.92	4.12	19.9%	19.9%	56.5%	29.5%	17.3%
	L14	2	4.59	4.66	23.4%	19.2%	76.9%	11.5%	30.8%

I keep waiting for Chatwood’s control to improve, but at this point, it might be a lost cause. In his 13 starts this season, he has given up as many walks as strikeouts (20% each). He has a SIERA close to six, which is a tough feat to accomplish when you have a ground ball rate of 57%. While he has a lot of the tools that we are looking for in a pitcher, he needs to cut his walk rate in half before considering him in DFS. It doesn’t help that he’s facing a Dodgers’ offense that mashes right-handed pitching.

Quick Breakdown: Avoid Chatwood in both cash games and tournaments.

Batter Grind Down

LA Dodgers

There is no helping or hurting wind tonight in Chicago, it looks like it will be blowing straight across the field. While Tyler Chatwood has a high ground ball rate, he continues to walk one out of every five batters that he faces. The Dodgers’ offense has been heating up (.357 xwOBA over the last two weeks) and Chatwood has struggled against lefties this season, allowing a .395 xwOBA and a 34% hard contact rate. Joc Pederson (.362 xwOBA), Max Muncy (.439 xwOBA), Cody Bellinger (.330 xwOBA), and Yasmani Grandal (.386 xwOBA) all bat from the left side and have good power numbers against right-handed pitching.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

#	Player	Bats	xwOBA	L15	ISO	HC%	BB%	K%	GB%	FD Pos.	FD Sal.	DK Pos.	DK Sal.	FDRFT Pos.	FDRFT Sal.
1	Joc Pederson	LEFT	0.362	0.495	0.312	41.4%	10.3%	14.7%	38.8%	OF	$2,800	OF	$4,400	CF	$8,400
2	Max Muncy	LEFT	0.439	0.466	0.346	46.0%	16.8%	26.0%	32.4%	3B	$3,900	1B/3B	$4,500	IF/OF	$9,000
3	Justin Turner	RIGHT	0.272	0.361	0.113	31.0%	4.5%	6.1%	41.4%	3B	$3,600	3B	$4,000	3B	$7,500
4	Matt Kemp	RIGHT	0.380	0.424	0.188	43.0%	3.9%	21.4%	40.4%	OF	$3,600	OF	$4,000	LF	$7,500
5	Cody Bellinger	LEFT	0.330	0.413	0.224	35.8%	10.3%	23.2%	44.3%	1B	$3,800	1B/OF	$4,500	1B	$9,000
6	Yasmani Grandal	SWITCH	0.386	0.318	0.245	39.5%	9.6%	20.4%	41.2%	C	$2,800	C	$3,900	C	$7,400
7	Chris Taylor	RIGHT	0.338	0.317	0.185	31.8%	8.1%	28.9%	32.0%	SS	$3,700	OF/SS	$4,000	IF/OF	$7,200
8	Yasiel Puig	RIGHT	0.395	0.418	0.236	37.9%	8.2%	20.9%	33.7%	OF	$3,300	OF	$4,100	RF	$7,300
9	Kenta Maeda	RIGHT	0.150	0.000	0.000	0.0%	0.0%	22.2%	20.0%	P	$8,300	P	$9,300	P	$17,600
	Team Averages		0.339	0.357	0.205	34.0%	8.0%	20.4%	36.0%

Elite Plays – Joc Pederson, Max Muncy, Cody Bellinger (GPP)

Secondary Plays – Cody Bellinger (Cash), Matt Kemp, Yasmani Grandal (DK)

Stackability – YELLOW / GREEN

Chicago Cubs

The Cubs draw a difficult matchup against Kenta Maeda, but they could be facing him at an opportune time. He missed nearly two weeks with a hip injury and struggled in his first start back. This isn’t a spot to load up on Chicago, but there are a few intriguing one-off targets in tournaments. On the season, Kenta Maeda has allowed a .331 xwOBA and a 36% hard contact rate to lefties. Ben Zobrist (.356 xwOBA), Anthony Rizzo (.399 xwOBA), and Kyle Schwarber (.380 xwOBA) all bat from the left side and hit right-handed pitching well.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

#	Player	Bats	xwOBA	L15	ISO	HC%	BB%	K%	GB%	FD Pos.	FD Sal.	DK Pos.	DK Sal.	FDRFT Pos.	FDRFT Sal.
1	Ben Zobrist	SWITCH	0.356	0.325	0.146	31.5%	15.0%	12.4%	45.0%	2B	$2,900	2B/OF	$4,100	IF/OF	$8,200
2	Jason Heyward	LEFT	0.371	0.356	0.163	32.8%	8.8%	9.4%	37.5%	OF	$2,800	OF	$3,500	RF	$6,500
3	Kris Bryant	RIGHT	0.364	0.257	0.142	31.5%	12.2%	19.7%	36.3%	3B	$4,000	3B	$4,800	IF/OF	$9,400
4	Anthony Rizzo	LEFT	0.399	0.399	0.211	34.8%	10.7%	10.2%	34.8%	1B	$4,100	1B	$4,700	1B	$9,300
5	Willson Contreras	RIGHT	0.319	0.224	0.164	29.3%	8.1%	17.3%	49.6%	C	$2,800	C	$3,700	IF/OF	$7,700
6	Kyle Schwarber	LEFT	0.380	0.381	0.277	41.2%	16.6%	24.4%	46.4%	OF	$3,400	OF	$3,900	IF/OF	$7,600
7	Addison Russell	RIGHT	0.281	0.293	0.084	34.2%	9.2%	24.1%	38.4%	SS	$2,600	SS	$3,000	SS	$5,400
8	Ian Happ	SWITCH	0.334	0.362	0.246	40.0%	16.4%	39.0%	32.3%	OF	$2,700	OF	$3,500	IF/OF	$6,600
9	Tyler Chatwood	RIGHT	0.120	0.133	0.000	0.0%	0.0%	23.5%	80.0%	P	$5,700	P	$5,300	P	$10,400
	Team Averages		0.325	0.303	0.159	30.6%	10.8%	20.0%	44.5%

Elite Plays – Anthony Rizzo (GPP)

Secondary Plays – Anthony Rizzo (Cash), Ben Zobrist, Jason Heyward, Kyle Schwarber

Stackability – ORANGE / YELLOW

Note: Unless noted, all statistics in the Grind Down are from the 2018 season.

MLB Grind Down: Monday, June 18th

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Stackability Rating System:

Implied Run Totals

Ballpark Ratings

NY Yankees at Washington – 7:05 PM ET

Pitcher Grind Down

Batter Grind Down

NY Yankees

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

Washington

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

Milwaukee at Pittsburgh – 7:05 PM ET

Pitcher Grind Down

Batter Grind Down

Milwaukee

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

Pittsburgh

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

St. Louis at Philadelphia – 7:05 PM ET

Pitcher Grind Down

Batter Grind Down

St. Louis

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

Philadelphia

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

Chicago White Sox at Cleveland – 7:10 PM ET

Pitcher Grind Down

Batter Grind Down

Chicago White Sox

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

Cleveland

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

LA Dodgers at Chicago Cubs – 8:05 PM ET

Pitcher Grind Down

Batter Grind Down

LA Dodgers

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

Chicago Cubs

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

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