MLB Grind Down: Monday, June 25th

by Derek Farnsworth (Notorious) Last Updated 2018-06-26 02:25:22

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The RotoGrinders MLB Grind Down will give you an in-depth analysis into the upcoming MLB schedule. This article will break down the numbers for every single game and give you analysis on which trends you can exploit. While matchups are a major factor in daily fantasy baseball, there are plenty of other factors to consider such as injuries, weather, and salaries.

The analysis should point you in the right direction, but it is still up to you to decipher the information and make your own selections. No sport has more variance than baseball. The best choice is not always the right choice but following the trends will win you money over time.

Note: As always, if you want to try a new DFS site, be sure to click through a RotoGrinders link and use our DraftKings promo code, FanDuel promo code, and FantasyDraft promo code to receive the best perks in the industry.

Stackability Rating System:

GREEN – A viable full stack in cash games and GPPs.
YELLOW – A viable mini-stack in cash games and full stack in GPPs.
ORANGE – A viable stack in large field GPPs.
RED – Not a recommended stack for cash games or GPPs.

Implied Run Totals

Ballpark Ratings

Oakland at Detroit – 3:10 PM ET

Stats	HC%	Stats	wOBA	xwOBA	HC%	BB%	K%	GB%
Oakland			Detroit
	Edwin Jackson				Jordan Zimmermann
	RIGHT				RIGHT
	Vegas Moneyline				Vegas Over/Under
	DET-105				9.5
SP vs. Left (2016-17)		SP vs. Left (2016-17)	0.290	0.310	30.9%	7.5%	23.8%	30.9%
SP vs. Right (2016-17)		SP vs. Right (2016-17)	0.331	0.387	42.6%	4.1%	23.0%	25.9%

Pitcher Grind Down

	Stats	Starts	SIERA	ERA	K%	BB%	GB%	HC%	SC%
Edwin Jackson
	FanDuel			DraftKings			FantasyDraft
	Salary:			Salary:			Salary:
	Salary Rank:		of 22	Salary Rank:		of 22	Salary Rank:
	2017	13	5.03	5.21	17.7%	8.6%	37.0%	30.8%	22.4%

There are two early games on the schedule, which should provide some daytime entertainment. Jackson will be making his first start of the season and his first as a member of the A’s. This is actually his 13th major league ball club, so he’s nearly played for half of the teams in baseball. In 13 starts last year, he posted a 5.03 SIERA with a strikeout rate of 18%. His numbers in the minors were mediocre at best before being called up and today’s game against the Tigers is set as a pick ‘em with an over/under of 9.5 runs.

Quick Breakdown: Even though there are only two games in the early slate, Jackson is an easy fade.

	Stats	Starts	SIERA	ERA	K%	BB%	GB%	HC%	SC%
Jordan Zimmermann
	FanDuel			DraftKings			FantasyDraft
	Salary:		$7,200	Salary:			Salary:
	Salary Rank:		13 of 22	Salary Rank:		of 22	Salary Rank:
	2017	29	5.22	6.08	14.5%	6.2%	33.2%	39.5%	13.4%
	2018	8	3.90	4.95	23.4%	5.8%	28.4%	36.7%	21.1%
	L14	1	3.47	5.40	21.1%	0.0%	33.3%	13.3%	20.0%

Zimmermann has an ERA close to five, but his advanced numbers are much better than they were a year ago. In his eight starts this season, he has a 3.90 SIERA with a strikeout rate of 23% and a walk rate of 6%. The fact that his hard contact rate is 8% higher than his ground ball rate is far from ideal, but we are working with very few options in the early two-game slate. The A’s have plenty of firepower in their lineup, but also have a 23% strikeout rate against right-handed pitching.

Quick Breakdown: Zimmermann is viable if you are playing the two-game early slate on a multi-pitcher DFS site.

Batter Grind Down

Oakland

Jordan Zimmermann is viable on multi-pitcher sites, but that has more to do with the other pitchers in the slate than it does with his matchup against the A’s. This offense is potent, they see a favorable ballpark shift playing in Detroit, and their lineup was built to hit fly balls. On the season, Zimmermann has allowed a .387 xwOBA and a 43% hard contact rate to right-handed hitters. He’s been tough on lefties, but that could be thanks to a small sample size. Khris Davis (.448 xwOBA against righties) is the top play here, but Dustin Fowler, Matt Joyce, Jed Lowrie, and Matt Olson are also viable.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

#	Player	Bats	xwOBA	L15	ISO	HC%	BB%	K%	GB%	FD Pos.	FD Sal.	FDRFT Pos.	FDRFT Sal.
1	Dustin Fowler	LEFT	0.339	0.309	0.152	46.9%	5.6%	17.8%	44.4%	OF	$2,500	N/A	N/A
2	Matt Joyce	LEFT	0.329	0.357	0.161	33.3%	14.2%	23.5%	31.6%	OF	$2,600	N/A	N/A
3	Jed Lowrie	SWITCH	0.338	0.254	0.224	35.6%	9.5%	22.3%	37.2%	3B	$3,500	N/A	N/A
4	Khris Davis	RIGHT	0.448	0.437	0.303	49.6%	7.6%	24.8%	34.3%	OF	$3,900	N/A	N/A
5	Matt Olson	LEFT	0.420	0.367	0.269	55.1%	10.4%	28.0%	33.1%	1B	$3,400	N/A	N/A
6	Stephen Piscotty	RIGHT	0.358	0.362	0.159	45.5%	7.4%	21.1%	43.9%	OF	$2,800	N/A	N/A
7	Marcus Semien	RIGHT	0.306	0.316	0.092	27.6%	8.0%	18.6%	43.1%	SS	$3,300	N/A	N/A
8	Jonathan Lucroy	RIGHT	0.328	0.376	0.100	44.5%	6.5%	14.9%	45.8%	C	$2,300	N/A	N/A
9	Franklin Barreto	RIGHT	0.154	0.315	0.214	33.3%	0.0%	35.7%	25.0%	2B	$2,400	N/A	N/A
	Team Averages		0.336	0.344	0.186	41.3%	7.7%	23.0%	37.6%

Elite Plays – Khris Davis

Secondary Plays – Dustin Fowler, Matt Joyce, Jed Lowrie, Matt Olson

Stackability – YELLOW

Detroit

The Tigers aren’t exactly world beaters offensively, but they draw an exploitable matchup against Edwin Jackson, who struggled in the majors last season and who was average at best in the minors earlier this season. If we look at his splits from 2017, Jackson allowed a .344 wOBA to lefties and a .336 wOBA to righties. The bottom of the Tigers’ order should be avoided, but each of the first four batters are viable thanks to their numbers against right-handed pitching — Leonys Martin (.424 xwOBA), Niko Goodrum (.338 xwOBA), Nick Castellanos (.368 xwOBA), and Victor Martinez (.350 xwOBA).

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

#	Player	Bats	xwOBA	L15	ISO	HC%	BB%	K%	GB%	FD Pos.	FD Sal.	FDRFT Pos.	FDRFT Sal.
1	Leonys Martin	LEFT	0.424	0.357	0.191	42.4%	10.8%	21.1%	35.5%	OF	$3,000	N/A	N/A
2	Niko Goodrum	SWITCH	0.338	0.289	0.234	34.5%	10.2%	31.3%	41.7%	OF	$2,700	N/A	N/A
3	Nick Castellanos	RIGHT	0.368	0.344	0.187	48.3%	4.9%	23.7%	33.7%	OF	$2,800	N/A	N/A
4	Victor Martinez	SWITCH	0.350	0.317	0.086	42.0%	7.8%	10.4%	39.5%	C	$2,100	N/A	N/A
5	John Hicks	RIGHT	0.291	0.310	0.153	43.5%	3.5%	31.7%	38.9%	C	$2,100	N/A	N/A
6	JaCoby Jones	RIGHT	0.301	0.246	0.168	31.7%	3.8%	28.0%	42.1%	OF	$2,500	N/A	N/A
7	Grayson Greiner	RIGHT	0.330	0.219	0.097	28.6%	11.4%	28.6%	42.9%	C	$2,200	N/A	N/A
8	Jose Iglesias	RIGHT	0.279	0.322	0.100	24.9%	4.0%	12.0%	45.1%	SS	$2,400	N/A	N/A
9	Dixon Machado	RIGHT	0.296	0.223	0.067	29.6%	6.7%	18.4%	43.2%	2B	$2,000	N/A	N/A
	Team Averages		0.331	0.292	0.143	36.2%	7.0%	22.8%	40.3%

Elite Plays – Leonys Martin, Nick Castellanos

Secondary Plays – Niko Goodrum, Victor Martinez

Stackability – YELLOW

LA Angels at Kansas City – 4:15 PM ET

Stats	wOBA	xwOBA	HC%	BB%	K%	GB%	Stats	wOBA	xwOBA	HC%	BB%	K%	GB%
LA Angels								Kansas City
			Tyler Skaggs							Brad Keller
			LEFT							RIGHT
			Vegas Moneyline							Vegas Over/Under
			LAA-150							9.0
SP vs. Left (2016-17)	0.204	0.274	34.5%	2.3%	30.2%	50.9%	SP vs. Left (2016-17)	0.249	0.307	29.6%	13.3%	11.7%	58.1%
SP vs. Right (2016-17)	0.331	0.314	37.3%	8.9%	24.4%	46.3%	SP vs. Right (2016-17)	0.306	0.326	37.2%	7.2%	15.3%	55.8%

Pitcher Grind Down

	Stats	Starts	SIERA	ERA	K%	BB%	GB%	HC%	SC%
Tyler Skaggs
	FanDuel			DraftKings			FantasyDraft
	Salary:		$9,300	Salary:			Salary:
	Salary Rank:		3 of 22	Salary Rank:		of 22	Salary Rank:
	2017	16	4.44	4.55	20.8%	7.7%	41.8%	32.2%	20.8%
	2018	14	3.51	2.81	25.9%	7.2%	47.5%	36.5%	12.3%
	L14	1	2.47	0.00	29.6%	3.7%	50.0%	38.9%	22.2%

Skaggs is the easy SP1 choice for the early slate. In 14 starts this season, he has a 3.51 SIERA with a strikeout rate of 26% and a walk rate of 7%. He gives up a lot of hard contact, but his high strikeout rate more than makes up for it. He draws a favorable matchup against the Royals, whose projected lineup has an xwOBA under .300 with a strikeout rate of 25%. The other advantage of facing the Royals is that they swing at pitches early in the count. Against southpaws this season, Kansas City averages the fourth fewest pitches per plate appearance. Skaggs not only has strikeout upside, but he could end up pitching deep into this game.

Quick Breakdown: Skaggs is an elite play in all formats.

	Stats	Starts	SIERA	ERA	K%	BB%	GB%	HC%	SC%
Brad Keller
	FanDuel			DraftKings			FantasyDraft
	Salary:		$5,500	Salary:			Salary:
	Salary Rank:		22 of 22	Salary Rank:		of 22	Salary Rank:

	2018	4	4.53	2.63	14.0%	9.4%	56.6%	34.6%	17.7%
	L14	2	6.09	3.97	9.8%	13.7%	48.6%	47.4%	13.2%

Keller is making his 26th appearance of the season, but 21 of those were as a reliever. While he is close to being stretched out (83 and 85 pitches in his last two starts), he doesn’t offer much of a floor or a ceiling. He currently owns a 4.53 SIERA with a strikeout rate of only 14%. The issue with a low strikeout rate is that it places an emphasis on limiting mistakes. In order for Keller to reach value with such a low k-rate, he needs to pitch deep into games and prevent earned runs. Those aren’t two of his best attributes. It doesn’t help that he’s facing an Angels’ offense that has a .323 xwOBA and a 19% strikeout rate against right-handed pitching.

Quick Breakdown: Avoid Keller in both cash games and tournaments.

Batter Grind Down

LA Angels

The Angels have the highest implied run total of the four teams in the early slate. Even though Kauffman Stadium is a large ballpark, it is very humid today in Kansas City and we have a helping wind blowing out to left field. Brad Keller has a low strikeout rate and a high hard contact rate, which bodes well for the Angels’ offense as a whole. We are dealing with a small sample size here, but Keller has allowed a .328 xwOBA and a 37% hard contact rate to right-handed hitters. Ian Kinsler, (.336 xwOBA), Mike Trout (.464 xwOBA), Justin Upton (.392 xwOBA), and Albert Pujols (.355 xwOBA) all bat from the right side and all hit right-handed pitching well.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

#	Player	Bats	xwOBA	L15	ISO	HC%	BB%	K%	GB%	FD Pos.	FD Sal.	FDRFT Pos.	FDRFT Sal.
1	Ian Kinsler	RIGHT	0.336	0.348	0.202	33.9%	9.0%	9.0%	37.4%	2B	$2,900	N/A	N/A
2	Mike Trout	RIGHT	0.464	0.427	0.329	47.9%	20.1%	19.0%	32.5%	OF	$5,200	N/A	N/A
3	Justin Upton	RIGHT	0.392	0.415	0.229	47.1%	11.5%	27.1%	42.0%	OF	$3,900	N/A	N/A
4	Albert Pujols	RIGHT	0.355	0.420	0.181	40.6%	4.2%	14.3%	39.6%	1B	$3,000	N/A	N/A
5	Luis Valbuena	LEFT	0.296	0.337	0.156	41.2%	5.9%	32.8%	37.5%	3B	$2,900	N/A	N/A
6	Andrelton Simmons	RIGHT	0.363	0.233	0.129	38.4%	6.2%	4.1%	47.0%	SS	$2,900	N/A	N/A
7	Kole Calhoun	LEFT	0.271	0.372	0.078	34.2%	5.5%	24.5%	52.6%	OF	$2,700	N/A	N/A
8	Martin Maldonado	RIGHT	0.266	0.262	0.102	29.1%	4.4%	23.1%	36.7%	C	$2,100	N/A	N/A
9	Michael Hermosillo	RIGHT	0.168	0.128	0.000	26.3%	0.0%	13.6%	72.2%	OF	$2,000	N/A	N/A
	Team Averages		0.323	0.327	0.156	37.6%	7.4%	18.6%	44.2%

Elite Plays – Ian Kinsler, Mike Trout, Justin Upton, Albert Pujols

Secondary Plays – Luis Valbuena, Andrelton Simmons

Stackability – YELLOW / GREEN

Kansas City

For whatever reason, games in Kansas City always seem to have a higher total than we expect. Since the Royals play their home games here, their implied run totals often seem inflated. They might have a run projection over four today, but draw the worst matchup of the early slate. In addition to having an elite strikeout rate, Tyler Skaggs has held both left and right-handed hitters under a .315 xwOBA. Outside of a Whit Merrifield (.421 xwOBA against lefties) one-off in tournaments, the Royals should be avoided.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. LH Pitching)

#	Player	Bats	xwOBA	L15	ISO	HC%	BB%	K%	GB%	FD Pos.	FD Sal.	FDRFT Pos.	FDRFT Sal.
1	Whit Merrifield	RIGHT	0.421	0.302	0.242	45.5%	7.1%	14.3%	31.2%	2B	$2,800	N/A	N/A
2	Rosell Herrera	SWITCH	0.325	0.294	0.111	50.0%	0.0%	11.1%	62.5%	OF	$2,100	N/A	N/A
3	Salvador Perez	RIGHT	0.326	0.312	0.250	37.5%	7.0%	22.8%	35.0%	C	$2,600	N/A	N/A
4	Hunter Dozier	RIGHT	0.342	0.215	0.069	33.3%	9.4%	25.0%	33.3%	1B	$2,400	N/A	N/A
5	Lucas Duda	LEFT	0.301	0.232	0.071	20.0%	2.2%	26.7%	33.3%	1B	$2,600	N/A	N/A
6	Alcides Escobar	RIGHT	0.308	0.246	0.167	30.2%	5.4%	18.9%	44.2%	SS	$2,100	N/A	N/A
7	Alex Gordon	LEFT	0.286	0.466	0.000	31.0%	11.1%	20.6%	69.0%	OF	$2,400	N/A	N/A
8	Abraham Almonte	SWITCH	0.282	0.268	0.083	28.6%	9.8%	22.0%	66.7%	OF	$2,000	N/A	N/A
9	Adalberto Mondesi	RIGHT	0.082	0.333	0.000	0.0%	0.0%	66.7%	100.0%	SS	$2,200	N/A	N/A
	Team Averages		0.297	0.296	0.110	30.7%	5.8%	25.3%	52.8%

Elite Plays – Whit Merrifield (GPP)

Secondary Plays – Whit Merrifield (Cash)

Stackability – ORANGE

NY Yankees at Philadelphia – 7:05 PM ET

Stats	wOBA	xwOBA	HC%	BB%	K%	GB%	Stats	wOBA	xwOBA	HC%	BB%	K%	GB%
NY Yankees								Philadelphia
			Jonathan Loaisiga							Vince Velasquez
			RIGHT							RIGHT
			Vegas Moneyline							Vegas Over/Under
			NYY-135							8.5
SP vs. Left (2016-17)	0.338	0.244	16.7%	20.0%	40.0%	66.7%	SP vs. Left (2016-17)	0.363	0.308	33.9%	8.7%	27.8%	37.0%
SP vs. Right (2016-17)	0.319	0.423	56.3%	13.0%	17.4%	50.0%	SP vs. Right (2016-17)	0.275	0.281	31.7%	8.3%	29.2%	40.8%

Pitcher Grind Down

	Stats	Starts	SIERA	ERA	K%	BB%	GB%	HC%	SC%
Jonathan Loaisiga
	FanDuel			DraftKings			FantasyDraft
	Salary:		$6,400	Salary:		$7,300	Salary:		$14,400
	Salary Rank:		17 of 22	Salary Rank:		11 of 22	Salary Rank:		11 of 22

	2018	2	4.36	3.12	26.3%	15.8%	54.5%	45.5%	9.1%
	L14	2	4.38	3.12	26.3%	15.8%	54.5%	45.5%	9.1%

We kick off tonight’s ten-game slate with the Yankees and Phillies. Loaisiga pitched well in his major league debut, but was knocked around by the Mariners in his last start. There are certainly some encouraging signs here (26% strikeout rate with a 55% ground ball rate), but he’s still unproven at the major league level. This will be his first career start on the road and it comes in a home run-friendly ballpark against an offense that has been heating up (.353 xwOBA over the last 15 days). The range of outcomes for Loaisiga is broad, but I have more interest in the Phillies’ offense.

Quick Breakdown: Loaisiga is viable in large-field tournaments, but I will take my chances elsewhere.

	Stats	Starts	SIERA	ERA	K%	BB%	GB%	HC%	SC%
Vince Velasquez
	FanDuel			DraftKings			FantasyDraft
	Salary:		$8,100	Salary:		$6,600	Salary:		$12,700
	Salary Rank:		10 of 22	Salary Rank:		15 of 22	Salary Rank:		16 of 22
	2017	15	4.73	5.13	21.6%	10.8%	42.5%	38.1%	15.2%
	2018	15	3.49	4.82	28.5%	8.5%	38.8%	32.9%	16.4%
	L14	2	3.67	4.15	29.2%	10.4%	35.7%	39.3%	21.4%

Velasquez has an ERA close to five, but his peripheral numbers suggest some positive regression. He currently owns a 3.49 SIERA with a strikeout rate of 29%. Those two numbers alone are appealing, but he does have a high fly-ball rate with a relatively high hard contact rate. He draws a difficult matchup against the Yankees, whose projected lineup has a .351 xwOBA against right-handed pitching this season. Velasquez also has a wide range of potential outcomes here, but at least we know what he brings to the table.

Quick Breakdown: Velasquez is viable in large-field tournaments, despite the tough matchup against the Yankees.

Batter Grind Down

NY Yankees

The Yankees are playing in a home run-friendly ballpark, but lose the use of the DH in this series. Their matchup against Vince Velasquez isn’t great, despite the fact that his ERA is close to five on the season. He has held both left and right-handed hitters under a .310 xwOBA and under a 34% hard contact rate. The best way to beat the Yankees is with a high-strikeout pitcher and Velasquez certainly fits the mold. While I won’t be using a full Yankees’ stack, Aaron Judge (.409 xwOBA), Didi Gregorius (.356 xwOBA), and Miguel Andujar (.364 xwOBA) all hit right-handed pitching well.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

#	Player	Bats	xwOBA	L15	ISO	HC%	BB%	K%	GB%	FD Pos.	FD Sal.	DK Pos.	DK Sal.	FDRFT Pos.	FDRFT Sal.
1	Brett Gardner	LEFT	0.310	0.323	0.157	31.8%	11.9%	16.4%	49.3%	OF	$2,900	OF	$3,800	LF	$7,200
2	Aaron Judge	RIGHT	0.409	0.386	0.301	48.8%	14.9%	29.8%	46.5%	OF	$4,500	OF	$5,300	RF	$10,000
3	Didi Gregorius	LEFT	0.356	0.354	0.258	41.2%	9.7%	13.4%	32.9%	SS	$3,800	SS	$4,400	SS	$8,100
4	Giancarlo Stanton	RIGHT	0.298	0.305	0.171	34.1%	8.4%	33.6%	53.8%	OF	$4,200	OF	$5,000	RF	$10,000
5	Miguel Andujar	RIGHT	0.364	0.263	0.208	36.3%	3.2%	17.8%	50.7%	3B	$3,500	3B	$4,000	3B	$7,300
6	Greg Bird	LEFT	0.281	0.283	0.246	37.5%	5.4%	28.4%	43.8%	1B	$2,400	1B	$3,700	1B	$7,400
7	Austin Romine	RIGHT	0.389	0.301	0.214	35.6%	13.6%	18.2%	42.2%	C	$2,500	C	$3,600	C	$7,700
8	Jonathan Loaisiga	RIGHT								P	$6,400	P	$7,300	P	$14,400
9	Gleyber Torres	RIGHT	0.398	0.357	0.258	39.0%	6.2%	26.7%	29.8%	2B	$4,000	2B	$4,200	2B	$8,500
	Team Averages		0.351	0.322	0.227	38.0%	9.2%	23.0%	43.6%

Elite Plays – Aaron Judge (GPP), Didi Gregorius (GPP)

Secondary Plays – Aaron Judge (Cash), Didi Gregorius (Cash), Brett Gardner, Miguel Andujar, Greg Bird

Stackability – ORANGE / YELLOW

Philadelphia

The Phillies aren’t an offense that we should load up on in cash games, but they certainly provide a high ceiling for tournaments. They are playing at home in a hitter-friendly ballpark and they are facing a rookie pitcher that is making his first career start on the road. The high strikeout rate of the Phillies could lead to a nice outing for Jonathan Loaisiga, but his inexperience could lead to a big outing for the Phillies’ offense. Cesar Hernandez (.334 xwOBA), Rhys Hoskins (.395 xwOBA), Odubel Herrera (.333 xwOBA), Carlos Santana (.387 xwOBA), and Nick Williams (.387 xwOBA) all hit right-handed pitching well and are all viable in tournaments.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

#	Player	Bats	xwOBA	L15	ISO	HC%	BB%	K%	GB%	FD Pos.	FD Sal.	DK Pos.	DK Sal.	FDRFT Pos.	FDRFT Sal.
1	Cesar Hernandez	SWITCH	0.334	0.321	0.150	26.3%	14.1%	22.8%	44.2%	2B	$3,700	2B	$4,700	2B	$9,400
2	Rhys Hoskins	RIGHT	0.395	0.419	0.231	34.8%	13.7%	27.8%	28.0%	OF	$4,000	OF	$5,000	IF/OF	$10,100
3	Odubel Herrera	LEFT	0.333	0.357	0.206	27.9%	7.8%	19.6%	43.9%	OF	$3,800	OF	$5,100	IF/OF	$10,100
4	Carlos Santana	SWITCH	0.387	0.354	0.237	36.4%	19.8%	13.7%	36.7%	1B	$3,700	1B	$4,600	1B	$9,400
5	Nick Williams	LEFT	0.387	0.377	0.237	33.0%	8.6%	23.2%	47.0%	OF	$2,300	OF	$3,300	RF	$6,700
6	Scott Kingery	RIGHT	0.307	0.314	0.114	28.1%	6.6%	22.4%	38.9%	SS	$2,400	SS	$3,000	SS	$5,600
7	Maikel Franco	RIGHT	0.313	0.354	0.162	22.8%	4.5%	16.7%	55.3%	3B	$2,700	3B	$3,300	3B	$6,400
8	Jorge Alfaro	RIGHT	0.261	0.216	0.131	29.0%	3.6%	39.1%	55.3%	C	$2,400	C	$2,900	C	$5,600
9	Vince Velasquez	RIGHT	0.212	0.463	0.000	20.0%	0.0%	25.0%	91.7%	P	$8,100	P	$6,600	P	$12,700
	Team Averages		0.325	0.353	0.163	28.7%	8.7%	23.4%	49.0%

Elite Plays – Rhys Hoskins, Cesar Hernandez (GPP), Carlos Santana (GPP)

Secondary Plays – Cesar Hernandez (Cash), Carlos Santana (Cash), Odubel Herrera, Nick Williams

Stackability – YELLOW

Seattle at Baltimore – 7:05 PM ET

Stats	wOBA	xwOBA	HC%	BB%	K%	GB%	Stats	wOBA	xwOBA	HC%	BB%	K%	GB%
Seattle								Baltimore
			Felix Hernandez							Andrew Cashner
			RIGHT							RIGHT
			Vegas Moneyline							Vegas Over/Under
			SEA-110							9.5
SP vs. Left (2016-17)	0.338	0.392	37.0%	10.3%	20.7%	39.3%	SP vs. Left (2016-17)	0.358	0.360	26.8%	10.1%	23.7%	35.5%
SP vs. Right (2016-17)	0.335	0.337	40.7%	6.5%	18.4%	49.7%	SP vs. Right (2016-17)	0.405	0.403	33.9%	9.9%	14.0%	43.0%

Pitcher Grind Down

	Stats	Starts	SIERA	ERA	K%	BB%	GB%	HC%	SC%
Felix Hernandez
	FanDuel			DraftKings			FantasyDraft
	Salary:		$7,500	Salary:		$7,000	Salary:		$13,900
	Salary Rank:		12 of 22	Salary Rank:		13 of 22	Salary Rank:		12 of 22
	2017	16	4.19	4.36	21.2%	7.1%	46.9%	30.7%	19.1%
	2018	16	4.36	5.14	19.4%	8.2%	45.1%	39.1%	17.2%
	L14	2	3.00	1.50	24.5%	4.1%	51.4%	40.0%	14.3%

King Felix has pitched well in three of his last four starts and now gets to face a right-handed heavy Orioles’ offense that has a high strikeout rate against right-handed pitching this season. Is that enough to overcome his low k-rate and the fact that he’s pitching on the road in a hitter-friendly ballpark? Well, that’s up to you to decide. Hernandez certainly has some upside, as the Orioles’ projected lineup has a .311 xwOBA with a strikeout rate of 28% against righties.

Quick Breakdown: Hernandez has a low floor (fade in cash games), but his ceiling in this matchup warrants consideration in tournaments.

	Stats	Starts	SIERA	ERA	K%	BB%	GB%	HC%	SC%
Andrew Cashner
	FanDuel			DraftKings			FantasyDraft
	Salary:		$6,200	Salary:		$4,600	Salary:		$9,200
	Salary Rank:		18 of 22	Salary Rank:		18 of 22	Salary Rank:		18 of 22
	2017	28	5.52	3.40	12.2%	9.1%	48.6%	28.4%	18.5%
	2018	14	4.75	4.72	18.8%	10.0%	39.5%	30.6%	16.9%
	L14	1	3.12	0.00	14.3%	0.0%	50.0%	0.0%	33.3%

Cashner’s biggest strength last season was his high ground ball rate (especially against right-handed hitters). He was never a pitcher to target in DFS, but stacks rarely worked against him. Times have changed in 2018, as his ground ball rate is below 40%. He has a high SIERA (4.75), a low strikeout rate (19%), and a high walk rate (10%). He’s pitching in a hitter-friendly ballpark and he draws one of the worst matchups of the slate. The Mariners’ projected lineup has a .351 xwOBA with a strikeout rate of only 21% against right-handed pitching.

Quick Breakdown: Fire up Cashner in low-ball formats and fire up a Mariners’ stack in normal tournaments.

Batter Grind Down

Seattle

The Mariners see a favorable ballpark boost playing in Camden Yards and draw one of the best matchups of the slate. In addition to having a high fly-ball rate and a low strikeout rate, Andrew Cashner has allowed a .360 xwOBA to lefties and a .403 xwOBA to righties this season. Dee Gordon doesn’t offer much upside in terms of extra-base hits, but he brings stolen base upside to the table and is cheap across the industry. I always give him a boost when he’s facing a pitcher with a high walk rate. Jean Segura (if active), Mitch Haniger, Nelson Cruz, and Kyle Seager are all borderline elite plays at their respective positions.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

#	Player	Bats	xwOBA	L15	ISO	HC%	BB%	K%	GB%	FD Pos.	FD Sal.	DK Pos.	DK Sal.	FDRFT Pos.	FDRFT Sal.
1	Dee Gordon	LEFT	0.276	0.254	0.069	17.9%	2.0%	16.0%	54.0%	2B	$2,900	2B/OF	$4,300	IF/OF	$8,200
2	Jean Segura	RIGHT	0.330	0.283	0.144	30.2%	3.6%	13.6%	55.2%	SS	$3,700	SS	$4,900	SS	$9,300
3	Mitch Haniger	RIGHT	0.412	0.344	0.251	41.0%	12.2%	23.6%	41.0%	OF	$3,400	OF	$4,900	RF	$9,000
4	Nelson Cruz	RIGHT	0.411	0.574	0.254	39.3%	6.7%	19.7%	43.7%	OF	$3,900	OF	$5,200	RF	$9,800
5	Kyle Seager	LEFT	0.337	0.323	0.202	40.7%	6.2%	20.4%	35.5%	3B	$2,900	3B	$4,100	3B	$8,300
6	Ryon Healy	RIGHT	0.372	0.396	0.222	41.3%	3.6%	21.3%	41.6%	1B	$2,800	1B	$4,100	1B	$8,200
7	Denard Span	LEFT	0.353	0.306	0.163	34.8%	13.4%	13.9%	39.7%	OF	$2,600	OF	$4,000	CF	$7,700
8	Mike Zunino	RIGHT	0.340	0.276	0.256	43.2%	3.7%	37.8%	40.5%	C	$2,300	C	$3,400	C	$6,600
9	Guillermo Heredia	SWITCH	0.330	0.202	0.112	27.4%	12.8%	18.3%	44.9%	OF	$2,000	OF	$2,800	CF	$5,800
	Team Averages		0.351	0.329	0.186	35.1%	7.1%	20.5%	44.0%

Elite Plays – Dee Gordon, Mitch Haniger, Nelson Cruz, Kyle Seager (FD)

Secondary Plays – Kyle Seager (DK), Jean Segura, Ryon Healy

Stackability – GREEN

Baltimore

The Orioles have an exploitable matchup against Felix Hernandez, but don’t quite have the right set of exploitees (and yes, I made the word up). On the season, Hernandez has held right-handed hitters to a .335 xwOBA on a 50% ground ball rate. The Orioles are projected to have six righties in their lineup tonight and we can rule all of them out with the exception of Manny Machado, who owns a .385 xwOBA and a .267 ISO against right-handed pitching. Jace Peterson, Chris Davis, and Colby Rasmus are the top targets here, but they are better tournament plays than core targets.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

#	Player	Bats	xwOBA	L15	ISO	HC%	BB%	K%	GB%	FD Pos.	FD Sal.	DK Pos.	DK Sal.	FDRFT Pos.	FDRFT Sal.
1	Jace Peterson	LEFT	0.294	0.364	0.150	29.2%	11.2%	25.0%	46.5%	3B	$2,500	2B/3B	$3,300	2B	$6,700
2	Adam Jones	RIGHT	0.355	0.309	0.197	35.1%	3.1%	17.9%	40.1%	OF	$2,800	OF	$3,900	CF	$7,500
3	Manny Machado	RIGHT	0.385	0.352	0.267	35.3%	11.2%	17.2%	32.9%	SS	$4,200	SS	$5,000	3B	$10,000
4	Mark Trumbo	RIGHT	0.375	0.418	0.217	42.5%	6.1%	22.8%	40.0%	OF	$3,100	1B/OF	$4,200	DH	$8,500
5	Chris Davis	LEFT	0.261	0.212	0.045	30.9%	8.1%	36.6%	47.8%	1B	$2,300	1B	$2,800	IF/OF	$5,700
6	Jonathan Schoop	RIGHT	0.230	0.300	0.177	25.2%	3.0%	24.6%	48.3%	2B	$2,600	2B	$3,400	2B	$6,300
7	Colby Rasmus	LEFT	0.305	0.414	0.138	42.9%	6.3%	46.9%	35.7%	OF	$2,300	OF	$3,200	LF	$6,500
8	Trey Mancini	RIGHT	0.370	0.260	0.142	33.9%	9.6%	24.2%	48.5%	OF	$2,400	1B/OF	$3,200	IF/OF	$6,600
9	Caleb Joseph	RIGHT	0.223	0.344	0.175	26.3%	1.7%	33.9%	35.1%	C	$2,200	C	$2,700	C	$5,800
	Team Averages		0.311	0.330	0.168	33.5%	6.7%	27.7%	41.7%

Elite Plays – None

Secondary Plays – Jace Peterson, Manny Machado, Chris Davis, Colby Rasmus

Stackability – ORANGE / YELLOW

Arizona at Miami – 7:10 PM ET

Stats	HC%	Stats	wOBA	xwOBA	HC%	BB%	K%	GB%
Arizona			Miami
	Shelby Miller				Dan Straily
	RIGHT				RIGHT
	Vegas Moneyline				Vegas Over/Under
	ARI-115				8.5
SP vs. Left (2016-17)		SP vs. Left (2016-17)	0.393	0.433	48.7%	17.1%	18.8%	25.4%
SP vs. Right (2016-17)		SP vs. Right (2016-17)	0.334	0.447	50.8%	5.8%	19.5%	36.1%

Pitcher Grind Down

	Stats	Starts	SIERA	ERA	K%	BB%	GB%	HC%	SC%
Shelby Miller
	FanDuel			DraftKings			FantasyDraft
	Salary:		$6,600	Salary:		$6,500	Salary:		$13,100
	Salary Rank:		16 of 22	Salary Rank:		16 of 22	Salary Rank:		15 of 22
	2017	4	5.06	4.09	20.2%	12.1%	43.9%	25.4%	20.9%

Miller will be making his long-awaited return to the mound after needing Tommy John surgery on his elbow. In his four rehab starts this season, he posted an FIP close to three with a strikeout rate above 30%. While those numbers are encouraging, he had a 4.87 FIP with a strikeout rate of only 15% in his last full season in the majors (2016). It doesn’t hurt to take a wait and see approach, especially since there are nine other games on the schedule this fine evening.

Quick Breakdown: No need to jump into a full-blown relationship. Take it slow with Miller and see how it goes.

	Stats	Starts	SIERA	ERA	K%	BB%	GB%	HC%	SC%
Dan Straily
	FanDuel			DraftKings			FantasyDraft
	Salary:		$6,000	Salary:		$4,500	Salary:		$9,200
	Salary Rank:		19 of 22	Salary Rank:		19 of 22	Salary Rank:		18 of 22
	2017	33	4.43	4.26	22.1%	7.8%	34.2%	32.6%	19.1%
	2018	10	5.09	4.89	19.1%	12.3%	30.3%	49.6%	9.5%
	L14	2	4.23	9.95	26.7%	10.0%	18.8%	58.8%	11.8%

Straily has not had a good year. He started on the DL and hasn’t pitched well since his return. Overall, he has a 5.09 SIERA with a 12% walk rate and a hard contact rate that is 20% higher than his ground ball rate (I didn’t think that was possible). The good news is that his strikeouts have come up over the last few weeks, yet his price continues to go down. His matchup against the Diamondbacks is far from perfect, but at least he’s facing them at home in the pitcher-friendly Marlins Park.

Quick Breakdown: At a price of only $4,500 on DraftKings, Straily is viable in large-field tournaments.

Batter Grind Down

Arizona

The Diamondbacks have been red-hot at the plate recently (.370 xwOBA over the last 15 days) and draw an exploitable matchup against Dan Straily, who is an extreme fly-ball pitcher that gives up a lot of hard contact. On the season, Straily has allowed a .433 xwOBA to lefties and a .447 xwOBA to righties. The fact that this game is being played in Miami should help keep ownership down on the Diamondbacks, even though they have one of the highest ceilings of any offense on the schedule. Paul Goldschmidt (.361 xwOBA), Jake Lamb (.368 xwOBA), David Peralta (.368 xwOBA), and Daniel Descalso (.377 xwOBA) all hit right-handed pitching well.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

#	Player	Bats	xwOBA	L15	ISO	HC%	BB%	K%	GB%	FD Pos.	FD Sal.	DK Pos.	DK Sal.	FDRFT Pos.	FDRFT Sal.
1	Jon Jay	LEFT	0.347	0.352	0.115	38.4%	5.8%	14.0%	53.6%	OF	$3,500	OF	$4,600	CF	$9,000
2	Paul Goldschmidt	RIGHT	0.361	0.495	0.211	44.3%	13.3%	30.4%	41.2%	1B	$4,500	1B	$5,300	1B	$9,900
3	Jake Lamb	LEFT	0.368	0.299	0.175	48.0%	9.4%	25.6%	45.3%	3B	$3,300	3B	$4,100	3B	$8,400
4	David Peralta	LEFT	0.368	0.378	0.254	52.3%	8.5%	19.0%	48.1%	OF	$3,700	OF	$4,900	RF	$9,000
5	Daniel Descalso	LEFT	0.377	0.365	0.243	43.2%	16.8%	22.7%	30.6%	2B	$3,000	2B/3B	$3,900	3B	$7,600
6	Ketel Marte	SWITCH	0.304	0.398	0.140	28.8%	6.7%	14.6%	51.4%	2B	$3,300	2B/SS	$3,800	SS	$7,600
7	Alex Avila	LEFT	0.280	0.448	0.111	53.5%	10.9%	46.5%	37.2%	C	$2,200	C	$2,500	C	$5,000
8	Jarrod Dyson	LEFT	0.284	0.226	0.071	20.7%	11.3%	13.1%	40.7%	OF	$2,300	OF	$3,300	CF	$6,300
9	Shelby Miller	RIGHT								P	$6,600	P	$6,500	P	$13,100
	Team Averages		0.336	0.370	0.165	41.2%	10.3%	23.2%	43.5%

Elite Plays – Paul Goldschmidt (GPP), Jake Lamb (GPP), David Peralta (GPP)

Secondary Plays – Paul Goldschmidt (Cash), Jake Lamb (Cash), David Peralta (Cash), Jon Jay, Daniel Descalso, Ketel Marte

Stackability – YELLOW / GREEN

Miami

The Marlins draw a boom or bust matchup against Shelby Miller. There are more positives than negatives here. He struggled in his last full season in the majors and this is his first start since coming back from Tommy John surgery. While he did pitch well in his rehab starts, they were at the Single-A and Double-A levels. If we look at his career splits, Miller has allowed a .336 wOBA to lefties and a .281 wOBA to righties. Derek Dietrich and Justin Bour are both elite tournament plays and they are dirt cheap across the industry. JT Riddle is also worth a look at min-salary on FanDuel ($2,000).

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

#	Player	Bats	xwOBA	L15	ISO	HC%	BB%	K%	GB%	FD Pos.	FD Sal.	DK Pos.	DK Sal.	FDRFT Pos.	FDRFT Sal.
1	Derek Dietrich	LEFT	0.348	0.385	0.173	38.7%	5.4%	21.3%	40.6%	OF	$3,100	OF	$3,800	IF/OF	$7,500
2	Brian Anderson	RIGHT	0.346	0.361	0.102	36.7%	8.2%	21.1%	50.0%	OF	$3,000	3B/OF	$3,600	IF/OF	$7,300
3	J.T. Realmuto	RIGHT	0.404	0.378	0.269	44.6%	6.5%	15.2%	43.2%	C	$3,400	C	$4,400	C	$8,600
4	Justin Bour	LEFT	0.408	0.362	0.261	43.4%	17.3%	23.6%	36.6%	1B	$3,000	1B	$3,500	1B	$6,500
5	Starlin Castro	RIGHT	0.287	0.224	0.107	34.6%	5.0%	20.4%	49.7%	2B	$2,800	2B	$3,400	2B	$6,800
6	JT Riddle	LEFT	0.337	0.343	0.172	37.2%	4.8%	27.0%	46.3%	SS	$2,000	SS	$3,300	SS	$6,500
7	Miguel Rojas	RIGHT	0.301	0.320	0.114	31.3%	4.9%	13.7%	55.4%	3B	$2,500	3B/SS	$2,900	SS	$5,800
8	Lewis Brinson	RIGHT	0.278	0.349	0.144	40.0%	3.8%	34.9%	50.5%	OF	$2,200	OF	$3,100	CF	$5,600
9	Dan Straily	RIGHT	0.096	0.018	0.000	0.0%	7.7%	61.5%	66.7%	P	$6,000	P	$4,500	P	$9,200
	Team Averages		0.312	0.304	0.149	34.1%	7.1%	26.5%	48.8%

Elite Plays – Derek Dietrich (GPP), Justin Bour (GPP)

Secondary Plays – Derek Dietrich (Cash), Justin Bour (Cash), JT Riddle

Stackability – ORANGE / YELLOW

Note: Unless noted, all statistics in the Grind Down are from the 2018 season.

MLB Grind Down: Monday, June 25th

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Stackability Rating System:

Implied Run Totals

Ballpark Ratings

Oakland at Detroit – 3:10 PM ET

Pitcher Grind Down

Batter Grind Down

Oakland

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

Detroit

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

LA Angels at Kansas City – 4:15 PM ET

Pitcher Grind Down

Batter Grind Down

LA Angels

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

Kansas City

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. LH Pitching)

NY Yankees at Philadelphia – 7:05 PM ET

Pitcher Grind Down

Batter Grind Down

NY Yankees

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

Philadelphia

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

Seattle at Baltimore – 7:05 PM ET

Pitcher Grind Down

Batter Grind Down

Seattle

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

Baltimore

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

Arizona at Miami – 7:10 PM ET

Pitcher Grind Down

Batter Grind Down

Arizona

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

Miami

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

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