MLB Grind Down: Monday, May 16th

by Derek Farnsworth (Notorious) Last Updated 2016-05-17 03:04:08

The RotoGrinders MLB Grind Down will give you an in-depth analysis into the upcoming MLB schedule. This article will break down the numbers for every single game and give you analysis on which trends you can exploit. While matchups are a major factor in daily fantasy baseball, there are plenty of other factors to consider such as injuries, weather, and salaries.

The analysis should point you in the right direction, but it is still up to you to decipher the information and make your own selections. No sport has more variance than baseball. The best choice is not always the right choice but following the trends will win you money over time.

Note: As always, if you want to try a new DFS site, be sure to click through a RotoGrinders link and use our DraftKings promo code and FanDuel promo code to receive the best perks in the industry.

Editor’s Note: There are $10,000 in added prizes for Grinders only in tomorrow’s $500,000 DraftKings Super Fastball GPP. Learn how to reserve your spot!

Cincinnati at Cleveland – 6:10 PM

Stats	wOBA	HR All.	K%	BB%	Stats	wOBA	HR All.	K%	BB%
Cincinnati					Cleveland
			John Lamb					Cody Anderson
			LEFT					RIGHT
			Vegas Moneyline					Vegas Over/Under
			CLE -150					8.5
SP vs. Left	0.425	3	25.0%	12.5%	SP vs. Left	0.350	11	12.3%	6.4%
SP vs. Right	0.336	6	24.9%	7.6%	SP vs. Right	0.284	6	13.5%	5.4%

Pitcher Grind Down

Statistics	Starts	SIERA	K%	BB%	SS%	GB%	FB%	HH%	HR/9
John Lamb
				FanDuel			DraftKings
				Salary:		$5,200	Salary:
				FPPG:		22.5	FPPG:
				Pitcher Rating:		62.8	Pitcher Rank:		9
2016	2	5.20	17.1%	9.8%	9.8%	24.1%	51.7%	40.0%	0.90
2015	10	3.56	26.4%	8.6%	10.6%	37.7%	40.6%	23.4%	1.45

Happy Monday everyone! Hopefully you all had a great weekend and are ready to get back to it tonight. We have one early game on the schedule and it looks like DraftKings is not offering any early slates, so most of you can probably just skip down to the next game.

Lamb will be on the mound for the Reds, making his third start of the season. He has shown some decent strikeout upside in the past, but he walks a lot of batters and gives up a decent number of home runs. He comes into this game as a sizable underdog against the Indians on the road. While I’m not a fan of either starter in this matchup, Lamb does provide more upside than his pitching counterpart, Cody Anderson. The Indians have struggled mightily against left-handed pitching this season, ranking 26th in team wOBA (.274) and 20th in strikeout rate (23.6%).

Statistics	Starts	SIERA	K%	BB%	SS%	GB%	FB%	HH%	HR/9
Cody Anderson
				FanDuel			DraftKings
				Salary:		$6,300	Salary:
				FPPG:		12.7	FPPG:
				Pitcher Rating:		51.1	Pitcher Rank:		12
L14 Days	1	3.33	18.8%	3.1%	13.9%	52.0%	28.0%	20.0%	2.16
2016	5	4.22	15.5%	3.9%	11.5%	42.2%	35.3%	26.2%	2.54
2015	15	4.89	12.1%	6.6%	7.8%	45.9%	33.6%	27.4%	0.89

Anderson has shown more strikeout upside this season. Even though his k-rate is still sitting at a pedestrian 15.5%, he is producing a swinging strike rate of 11.5%. If he can sustain that moving forward, he should be able to increase his k-rate. The issue is that is that if you look at the larger sample size (last year’s starts), the strikeout upside just isn’t high enough to warrant fantasy consideration. He may be a sizable favorite at home against the Reds, but I haven’t seen enough from him to justify starting him in DFS.

Batter Grind Down

Cincinnati

The Reds have been a disappointment offensively this season, ranking 20th in runs scored per game. They haven’t fared particularly well against right-handed pitching, ranking 27th in team wOBA and 24th in team strikeout rate. While these are all concerns, Cincinnati does draw a favorable matchup against low-strikeout pitcher, Cody Anderson. Over the last two seasons, Anderson has allowed a .350 wOBA and 11 home runs to hitters from the left side of the plate.

Reds Offense (2016)
Team wOBA vs. RHP — 0.291 (27 of 30)
Team ISO vs. RHP — 0.164 (14 of 30)
Team K% vs. RHP — 23.3% (24 of 30)
Runs Per Game — 4.14 (20 of 30)
Projected Run Total — 3.96 (11 of 18)

Projected Lineup

#	Player	Bats	wOBA vs. RHP	ISO vs. RHP	wOBA L14	FD Position	FD Salary	DK Position	DK Salary
1	Zack Cozart	RIGHT	0.320	0.187	0.316	SS	$3,400
2	Jose Peraza	RIGHT	0.074	0.000	0.177	2B	$2,000
3	Joey Votto	LEFT	0.406	0.222	0.389	1B	$3,800
4	Brandon Phillips	RIGHT	0.321	0.128	0.369	2B	$2,900
5	Jay Bruce	LEFT	0.322	0.238	0.355	OF	$3,400
6	Eugenio Suarez	RIGHT	0.306	0.152	0.293	3B	$2,500
7	Adam Duvall	RIGHT	0.384	0.333	0.535	OF	$3,500
8	Tucker Barnhart	SWITCH	0.299	0.093	0.234	C	$2,100
9	Ivan De Jesus	RIGHT	0.292	0.121	0.352	SS	$2,300
	Team Averages	—	0.303	0.164	0.336	—	—	—	—

Elite Plays – Joey Votto, Jay Bruce

Secondary Plays – Zack Cozart, Jose Peraza, Brandon Phillips

Stackability – GPP

Cleveland

The Indians have the third highest team total of the 18 teams in action tonight. If you are playing in the early-only slate on FanDuel, you may want to consider taking a few Cleveland bats. They may not hit left-handed pitching well as a team, but John Lamb has allowed a .425 wOBA to left-handed hitters and a .336 wOBA to right-handed hitters. Looking at the lineup below, Francisco Lindor, Mike Napoli, and Marlon Byrd all have good numbers against southpaws over the last two seasons.

Indians Offense (2016)
Team wOBA vs. LHP — 0.274 (26 of 30)
Team ISO vs. LHP — 0.104 (28 of 30)
Team K% vs. LHP — 23.6% (20 of 30)
Runs Per Game — 4.21 (17 of 30)
Projected Run Total — 4.54 (3 of 18)

Projected Lineup

#	Player	Bats	wOBA vs. LHP	ISO vs. LHP	wOBA L14	FD Position	FD Salary	DK Position	DK Salary
1	Carlos Santana	SWITCH	0.316	0.095	0.288	1B	$3,100
2	Jason Kipnis	LEFT	0.284	0.117	0.391	2B	$3,400
3	Francisco Lindor	SWITCH	0.384	0.181	0.325	SS	$3,600
4	Mike Napoli	RIGHT	0.390	0.266	0.399	1B	$3,500
5	Jose Ramirez	SWITCH	0.259	0.094	0.410	P	$4,000
6	Marlon Byrd	RIGHT	0.342	0.211	0.171	OF	$2,600
7	Yan Gomes	RIGHT	0.253	0.115	0.231	C	$2,700
8	Tyler Naquin	LEFT	0.428	0.200	0.302	OF	$2,300
9	Rajai Davis	RIGHT	0.303	0.188	0.103	OF	$2,900
	Team Averages	—	0.329	0.163	0.291	—	—	—	—

Elite Plays – Francisco Lindor, Mike Napoli

Secondary Plays – Carlos Santana, Jose Ramirez, Marlon Byrd

Stackability – GPP

Atlanta at Pittsburgh – 7:05 PM

Stats	wOBA	HR All.	K%	BB%	Stats	wOBA	HR All.	K%	BB%
Atlanta					Pittsburgh
			Williams Perez					Jon Niese
			RIGHT					LEFT
			Vegas Moneyline					Vegas Over/Under
			PIT -170					8.0
SP vs. Left	0.373	11	12.9%	10.3%	SP vs. Left	0.360	6	16.8%	4.6%
SP vs. Right	0.311	4	15.0%	9.4%	SP vs. Right	0.343	24	14.4%	8.1%

Pitcher Grind Down

Statistics	Starts	SIERA	K%	BB%	SS%	GB%	FB%	HH%	HR/9
Williams Perez
				FanDuel			DraftKings
				Salary:		$6,600	Salary:		$5,400
				FPPG:		19.8	FPPG:		9.8
				Pitcher Rating:		25.3	Pitcher Rank:		18
L14 Days	1	3.14	16.0%	0.0%	8.2%	61.9%	28.6%	23.8%	1.13
2016	4	4.93	12.1%	9.6%	5.1%	59.0%	27.9%	28.1%	0.89
2015	20	4.87	14.2%	9.9%	6.1%	50.9%	28.8%	29.4%	1.00

Perez surprised everyone in his last start, pitching eight innings and only allowing a single run against the Phillies. While I’d love to believe that this is some sort of turnaround moment for him, we have to trust the larger sample size. Over the last two seasons, his SIERA is right around 5.00 and he has a strikeout rate well under 15%. He comes into tonight’s start as a large underdog on the road against the Pirates. Of the 18 pitchers taking the mound tonight, I have him graded as the worst fantasy option on the board.

Statistics	Starts	SIERA	K%	BB%	SS%	GB%	FB%	HH%	HR/9
Jon Niese
				FanDuel			DraftKings
				Salary:		$7,000	Salary:		$5,800
				FPPG:		21.0	FPPG:		8.7
				Pitcher Rating:		65.7	Pitcher Rank:		9
L14 Days	2	5.24	12.5%	10.7%	6.6%	50.0%	27.5%	36.6%	2.31
2016	7	4.58	16.0%	8.3%	6.4%	48.9%	32.8%	31.3%	2.25
2015	29	4.27	14.7%	7.1%	5.8%	54.5%	24.7%	29.7%	1.02

Niese is not having a season to remember. In his first seven starts with the Pirates, he has a 4.58 SIERA with a strikeout rate of only 16%. He walks a few too many batters, he is giving up a ton of home runs, and his hard hit contact rate is above 30%. The good news is that he gets to face the Braves tonight at home. On the season, Atlanta is ranked dead last in team wOBA against right-handed pitching. They also have the third highest strikeout rate. Niese gets the biggest matchup boost of any pitcher in the slate tonight, which actually puts him in play as an SP2.

Batter Grind Down

Atlanta

The Braves’ offense is a dumpster fire right now. especially against left-handed pitching. If you look at their lineup below, it is filled with fringe MLB players. If that ends up being Atlanta’s lineup tonight, they will have a combined .242 wOBA with a combined .248 strikeout rate against left-handed pitching. I’ve been playing MLB DFS for a long time and I can’t remember a team ever having a higher strikeout rate than wOBA.

Braves Offense (2016)
Team wOBA vs. LHP — 0.232 (30 of 30)
Team ISO vs. LHP — 0.043 (30 of 30)
Team K% vs. LHP — 25.9% (28 of 30)
Runs Per Game — 3.06 (30 of 30)
Projected Run Total — 3.59 (16 of 18)

Projected Lineup

#	Player	Bats	wOBA vs. LHP	ISO vs. LHP	wOBA L14	FD Position	FD Salary	DK Position	DK Salary
1	Nick Markakis	LEFT	0.282	0.054	0.220	OF	$2,900	OF	$3,100
2	Ender Inciarte	LEFT	0.233	0.045	0.191	OF	$2,500	OF	$3,200
3	Freddie Freeman	LEFT	0.316	0.110	0.419	1B	$3,400	1B	$3,800
4	Tyler Flowers	RIGHT	0.297	0.073	0.223	C	$2,200	C	$2,800
5	Jeff Francoeur	RIGHT	0.283	0.095	0.212	OF	$2,200	OF	$2,500
6	Gordon Beckham	RIGHT	0.284	0.105	0.383	2B	$2,300	2B/3B	$2,600
7	Chase d’Arnaud	RIGHT	0.192	0.125	0.337			3B/SS	$2,000
8	Erick Aybar	SWITCH	0.241	0.046	0.243	SS	$2,200	SS	$2,700
9	Williams Perez	RIGHT	0.049	0.000	0.000	P	$6,600	P	$5,400
	Team Averages	—	0.242	0.073	0.248	—	—	—	—

Elite Plays – NONE

Secondary Plays – NONE

Stackability – NONE

Pittsburgh

The Pirates have quietly been scoring a lot of runs this season. They are ranked fifth in runs scored per game and they are ranked fifth in team wOBA against right-handed pitching. They draw a favorable matchup tonight against Williams Perez, who is a low strikeout pitcher. Hitters from both sides of the plate are in play here, but we should try to get exposure to the left-handed bats, as Perez has allowed a .373 wOBA to hitters from that side of the plate.

Pirates Offense (2016)
Team wOBA vs. RHP — 0.335 (5 of 30)
Team ISO vs. RHP — 0.141 (23 of 30)
Team K% vs. RHP — 18.9% (9 of 30)
Runs Per Game — 4.75 (5 of 30)
Projected Run Total — 4.41 (5 of 18)

Projected Lineup

#	Player	Bats	wOBA vs. RHP	ISO vs. RHP	wOBA L14	FD Position	FD Salary	DK Position	DK Salary
1	John Jaso	LEFT	0.350	0.170	0.265	1B	$2,800	1B	$3,500
2	Andrew McCutchen	RIGHT	0.371	0.201	0.403	OF	$4,500	OF	$5,200
3	Gregory Polanco	LEFT	0.335	0.147	0.307	OF	$3,500	OF	$4,500
4	Starling Marte	RIGHT	0.355	0.157	0.343	OF	$3,900	OF	$4,900
5	Francisco Cervelli	RIGHT	0.328	0.084	0.219	C	$2,800	C	$3,100
6	Jung Ho Kang	RIGHT	0.363	0.189	0.491	3B	$3,000	3B/SS	$3,600
7	Josh Harrison	RIGHT	0.306	0.103	0.275	2B	$3,200	2B	$3,500
8	Jordy Mercer	RIGHT	0.264	0.066	0.252	SS	$2,500	SS	$2,800
9	Jon Niese	LEFT	0.198	0.021	0.000	P	$7,000	P	$5,800
	Team Averages	—	0.319	0.126	0.284	—	—	—	—

Elite Plays – John Jaso, Gregory Polanco, Jung Ho Kang

Secondary Plays – Andrew McCutchen, Starling Marte, Francisco Cervelli

Stackability – Cash & GPP

Boston at Kansas City – 7:05 PM

Stats	wOBA	HR All.	K%	BB%	Stats	wOBA	HR All.	K%	BB%
Boston					Kansas City
			Rick Porcello					Yordano Ventura
			RIGHT					RIGHT
			Vegas Moneyline					Vegas Over/Under
			BOS -125					8.0
SP vs. Left	0.330	18	21.8%	5.5%	SP vs. Left	0.321	12	21.9%	10.8%
SP vs. Right	0.327	13	20.3%	4.9%	SP vs. Right	0.296	6	20.3%	9.1%

Pitcher Grind Down

Statistics	Starts	SIERA	K%	BB%	SS%	GB%	FB%	HH%	HR/9
Rick Porcello
				FanDuel			DraftKings
				Salary:		$8,500	Salary:		$10,700
				FPPG:		43.0	FPPG:		22.7
				Pitcher Rating:		70.5	Pitcher Rank:		6
L14 Days	2	4.33	17.5%	7.0%	6.0%	41.0%	30.8%	31.0%	0.66
2016	7	3.29	24.9%	5.4%	7.5%	46.7%	34.4%	28.6%	1.17
2015	28	3.73	20.2%	5.2%	8.5%	45.7%	32.5%	32.8%	1.31

Porcello is off to a nice start this season, posting a 3.29 SIERA with a strikeout rate of 24.9% in his first seven starts. He draws an interesting matchup against the Royals, who have come stumbling out of the gates offensively. On the season, Kansas City is ranked 22nd in team wOBA against right-handed pitching and 28th in runs scored per game. I wouldn’t pay the $10,700 price tag for Porcello on DraftKings, but he makes an intriguing tournament option on FanDuel at $8,500. Until the Royals start hitting, we don’t have to be scared to take pitchers against them.

Statistics	Starts	SIERA	K%	BB%	SS%	GB%	FB%	HH%	HR/9
Yordano Ventura
				FanDuel			DraftKings
				Salary:		$7,500	Salary:		$5,700
				FPPG:		24.0	FPPG:		10.6
				Pitcher Rating:		48.1	Pitcher Rank:		14
L14 Days	2	6.51	8.2%	16.3%	5.1%	59.5%	29.7%	16.2%	0.90
2016	7	6.00	15.4%	16.6%	8.4%	46.9%	39.8%	26.3%	0.97
2015	28	3.69	22.5%	8.4%	10.4%	52.2%	27.2%	29.8%	0.77

Whoa, has Ventura been bad. He has a SIERA of 6.00 on the season and he has walked more batters than he has struck out. Until he can fix whatever is wrong with his mechanics, he should be avoided in all league formats. It doesn’t help that he is facing a Red Sox offense that has scored at least six runs in seven straight games. Boston now leads the majors in team wOBA against right-handed pitching (.366).

Batter Grind Down

Boston

The Red Sox offense is eventually going to cool off. They have had at least 11 hits in something like seven straight games. They draw a favorable matchup tonight against Yordano Ventura, who looks like a completely different pitcher this season. While I don’t love the ballpark for hitters, everything else checks out for the Red Sox. They currently have the eighth highest team total on the board.

Red Sox Offense (2016)
Team wOBA vs. RHP — 0.366 (1 of 30)
Team ISO vs. RHP — 0.190 (4 of 30)
Team K% vs. RHP — 18.8% (8 of 30)
Runs Per Game — 6.03 (1 of 30)
Projected Run Total — 4.15 (8 of 18)

Projected Lineup

#	Player	Bats	wOBA vs. RHP	ISO vs. RHP	wOBA L14	FD Position	FD Salary	DK Position	DK Salary
1	Mookie Betts	RIGHT	0.345	0.182	0.331	OF	$4,400	OF	$4,700
2	Dustin Pedroia	RIGHT	0.354	0.156	0.326	2B	$3,400	2B	$4,100
3	Xander Bogaerts	RIGHT	0.331	0.110	0.435	SS	$4,400	SS	$4,600
4	David Ortiz	LEFT	0.427	0.342	0.480	1B	$4,300	1B	$5,300
5	Hanley Ramirez	RIGHT	0.323	0.154	0.500	1B	$3,900	1B	$4,500
6	Travis Shaw	LEFT	0.372	0.207	0.407	3B	$3,700	3B	$3,900
7	Josh Rutledge	RIGHT	0.308	0.087	0.450	SS	$2,200	2B	$2,300
8	Brock Holt	LEFT	0.312	0.108	0.278	OF	$3,000	OF	$3,100
9	Christian Vazquez	RIGHT	0.285	0.146	0.320	C	$2,300	C	$2,800
	Team Averages	—	0.340	0.166	0.392	—	—	—	—

Elite Plays – Mookie Betts, David Ortiz

Secondary Plays – Dustin Pedroia, Xander Bogaerts, Hanley Ramirez, Travis Shaw

Stackability – GPP

Kansas City

The Royals’ offensive struggles could continue tonight, as they square off against Rick Porcello at home. As we all know, Kauffman Stadium is not the best park for offensive production. Kansas City has the fifth lowest team total on the board. The one potential exploit in this matchup is the fact that Rick Porcello has allowed a .330 wOBA and 18 home runs to left-handed hitters over the last two seasons.

Royals Offense (2016)
Team wOBA vs. RHP — 0.304 (22 of 30)
Team ISO vs. RHP — 0.130 (26 of 30)
Team K% vs. RHP — 19.2% (11 of 30)
Runs Per Game — 3.53 (28 of 30)
Projected Run Total — 3.85 (14 of 18)

Projected Lineup

#	Player	Bats	wOBA vs. RHP	ISO vs. RHP	wOBA L14	FD Position	FD Salary	DK Position	DK Salary
1	Alcides Escobar	RIGHT	0.268	0.061	0.318	SS	$2,500	SS	$2,800
2	Lorenzo Cain	RIGHT	0.329	0.127	0.417	OF	$3,400	OF	$3,800
3	Eric Hosmer	LEFT	0.389	0.186	0.416	1B	$3,900	1B	$3,900
4	Kendrys Morales	SWITCH	0.345	0.224	0.259	1B	$2,700	1B	$3,000
5	Alex Gordon	LEFT	0.342	0.165	0.329	OF	$2,800	OF	$3,100
6	Salvador Perez	RIGHT	0.327	0.194	0.245	C	$2,900	C	$3,100
7	Cheslor Cuthbert	RIGHT	0.296	0.175	0.262	3B	$2,200	3B	$2,400
8	Christian Colon	RIGHT	0.308	0.058	0.271	2B	$2,400	2B/3B	$2,300
9	Jarrod Dyson	LEFT	0.290	0.123	0.172	OF	$2,300	OF	$3,000
	Team Averages	—	0.322	0.146	0.299	—	—	—	—

Elite Plays – NONE

Secondary Plays – Eric Hosmer, Kendrys Morales, Alex Gordon

Stackability – NONE

Miami at Philadelphia – 7:05 PM

Stats	wOBA	HR All.	K%	BB%	Stats	wOBA	HR All.	K%	BB%
Miami					Philadelphia
			Adam Conley					Jerad Eickhoff
			LEFT					RIGHT
			Vegas Moneyline					Vegas Over/Under
			MIA -133					7.5
SP vs. Left	0.381	1	17.3%	13.3%	SP vs. Left	0.371	7	16.7%	6.8%
SP vs. Right	0.293	9	23.5%	7.3%	SP vs. Right	0.218	3	29.0%	4.4%

Pitcher Grind Down

Statistics	Starts	SIERA	K%	BB%	SS%	GB%	FB%	HH%	HR/9
Adam Conley
				FanDuel			DraftKings
				Salary:		$8,300	Salary:		$8,200
				FPPG:		28.9	FPPG:		15.4
				Pitcher Rating:		78.3	Pitcher Rank:		2
L14 Days	2	3.64	23.8%	7.1%	9.9%	34.6%	26.9%	37.0%	0.00
2016	7	3.87	25.0%	9.9%	10.6%	39.4%	36.2%	35.1%	0.74
2015	11	3.98	21.0%	7.5%	10.1%	40.6%	40.6%	21.7%	0.94

Conley struggled in his last starts, allowing nine baserunners and four earned runs in only four innings of work. Luckily, he draws the perfect matchup for a bounce back, as the Phillies have one of the worst offenses in all of baseball. On the season, Philadelphia is ranked 27th in team wOBA (.273) and 22nd in team strikeout rate (24.1%) against left-handed pitching. Conley’s price is a little higher than I’d like it to be, but he has shown nice strikeout upside this season (25%) and he is listed as a small favorite in a favorable matchup. I currently have him ranked as the number two pitching option in tonight’s slate.

Statistics	Starts	SIERA	K%	BB%	SS%	GB%	FB%	HH%	HR/9
Jerad Eickhoff
				FanDuel			DraftKings
				Salary:		$6,700	Salary:		$6,700
				FPPG:		26.0	FPPG:		13.8
				Pitcher Rating:		72.5	Pitcher Rank:		5
L14 Days	2	5.04	8.9%	6.7%	3.6%	47.4%	23.7%	26.3%	1.74
2016	7	3.65	20.9%	4.7%	8.6%	44.0%	33.6%	30.7%	1.11
2015	8	3.56	24.1%	6.4%	10.4%	37.9%	40.0%	36.2%	0.88

After a terrific start to the season, Eickhoff has struggled in his last four starts – allowing 16 runs while only striking out 15 batters. His numbers still look good overall, but the Marlins are a surprisingly difficult matchup for right-handed pitchers. Miami is ranked eighth in team wOBA and fifth in team strikeout rate against righties this season. Eickhoff still has a ton of potential as a major league starter, but I am going to wait until he is in better form before targeting him in DFS.

Batter Grind Down

Miami

The Marlins may have the seventh lowest team total on the board tonight, but that doesn’t mean that we have to automatically avoid their entire offense. Jerad Eickhoff has really struggled with left-handed hitters, allowing a .371 wOBA over the last two seasons. Giancarlo Stanton is always a great play regardless of the pitcher’s splits, but the main targets in this matchup are those that can hit from the left side of the plate.

Marlins Offense (2016)
Team wOBA vs. RHP — 0.330 (8 of 30)
Team ISO vs. RHP — 0.150 (20 of 30)
Team K% vs. RHP — 18.3% (5 of 30)
Runs Per Game — 4.16 (18 of 30)
Projected Run Total — 3.94 (12 of 18)

Projected Lineup

#	Player	Bats	wOBA vs. RHP	ISO vs. RHP	wOBA L14	FD Position	FD Salary	DK Position	DK Salary
1	Derek Dietrich	LEFT	0.378	0.229	0.348	2B	$3,300	2B/3B	$3,500
2	Martin Prado	RIGHT	0.319	0.093	0.326	3B	$3,100	3B	$3,600
3	Christian Yelich	LEFT	0.368	0.156	0.374	OF	$3,700	OF	$4,600
4	Giancarlo Stanton	RIGHT	0.373	0.295	0.342	OF	$4,100	OF	$5,100
5	Justin Bour	LEFT	0.360	0.249	0.384	1B	$3,400	1B	$3,700
6	Marcell Ozuna	RIGHT	0.297	0.125	0.490	OF	$3,600	OF	$4,100
7	J.T. Realmuto	RIGHT	0.298	0.129	0.300	C	$2,700	C	$3,200
8	Adeiny Hechavarria	RIGHT	0.269	0.084	0.189	SS	$2,100	SS	$2,600
9	Adam Conley	LEFT	0.130	0.000	0.000	P	$8,300	P	$8,200
	Team Averages	—	0.310	0.151	0.306	—	—	—	—

Elite Plays – Derek Dietrich, Justin Bour

Secondary Plays – Christian Yelich, Giancarlo Stanton

Stackability – NONE

Philadelphia

The Phillies have not hit left-handed pitching well this season. They have not hit right-handed pitching well either. Too bad there wasn’t a third hand that they could hit a little better. They have the second lowest team total on the board tonight. Adam Conley is a southpaw, but he has some drastic reverse splits. Over the last two seasons, he has held right-handed hitters to a .293 wOBA.

Phillies Offense (2016)
Team wOBA vs. LHP — 0.273 (27 of 30)
Team ISO vs. LHP — 0.126 (24 of 30)
Team K% vs. LHP — 24.1% (22 of 30)
Runs Per Game — 3.32 (29 of 30)
Projected Run Total — 3.56 (17 of 18)

Projected Lineup

#	Player	Bats	wOBA vs. LHP	ISO vs. LHP	wOBA L14	FD Position	FD Salary	DK Position	DK Salary
1	Odubel Herrera	LEFT	0.329	0.082	0.435	OF	$3,800	OF	$3,600
2	Cesar Hernandez	RIGHT	0.321	0.072	0.281	2B	$2,300	2B	$2,800
3	Maikel Franco	RIGHT	0.363	0.275	0.291	3B	$2,600	3B	$3,800
4	Carlos Ruiz	RIGHT	0.407	0.242	0.318	C	$2,800	C	$3,700
5	Freddy Galvis	SWITCH	0.257	0.031	0.248	SS	$2,600	SS	$2,800
6	Tommy Joseph	RIGHT	0.345	0.000	0.230	1B	$2,000	1B/C	$2,100
7	Tyler Goeddel	RIGHT	0.170	0.080	0.279	OF	$2,000	OF	$3,400
8	Jerad Eickhoff	RIGHT	0.000	0.000	0.000	P	$6,700	P	$6,700
9	Peter Bourjos	RIGHT	0.274	0.135	0.299	OF	$2,100	OF	$2,600
	Team Averages	—	0.274	0.102	0.265	—	—	—	—

Elite Plays – NONE

Secondary Plays – Odubel Herrera

Stackability – NONE

Tampa Bay at Toronto – 7:07 PM

Stats	wOBA	HR All.	K%	BB%	Stats	wOBA	HR All.	K%	BB%
Tampa Bay					Toronto
			Drew Smyly					J.A. Happ
			LEFT					LEFT
			Vegas Moneyline					Vegas Over/Under
			TOR -122					8.0
SP vs. Left	0.265	3	38.9%	5.6%	SP vs. Left	0.290	2	24.5%	6.1%
SP vs. Right	0.297	15	25.6%	6.5%	SP vs. Right	0.306	18	18.4%	6.5%

Pitcher Grind Down

Statistics	Starts	SIERA	K%	BB%	SS%	GB%	FB%	HH%	HR/9
Drew Smyly
				FanDuel			DraftKings
				Salary:		$9,100	Salary:		$11,100
				FPPG:		35.4	FPPG:		21.0
				Pitcher Rating:		73.1	Pitcher Rank:		4
L14 Days	2	3.49	24.4%	4.4%	13.3%	28.1%	43.8%	31.3%	1.80
2016	7	2.87	30.1%	4.6%	13.4%	33.0%	50.9%	28.6%	1.41
2015	12	3.25	28.0%	7.3%	11.4%	36.8%	44.3%	31.6%	1.48

Smyly was fired up in his last start after the umps ruled a balk and then no balk. He didn’t have his best outing, but he still owns an elite 2.87 SIERA with a strikeout rate of 30.1% on the season. His toughest test to date will come tonight against the Blue Jays in Toronto. They may not have great numbers against southpaws this season, but the average wOBA against lefties for the nine projected starters on Toronto is .363 (and yes, that is the average). My biggest concern with Smyly is that most of his outs come by strikeouts or fly balls. If he is giving up a lot of fly balls, that could be trouble in this ballpark. He is still in play on FanDuel, but I will not be paying up for him on DraftKings at a price of $11,100.

Statistics	Starts	SIERA	K%	BB%	SS%	GB%	FB%	HH%	HR/9
J.A. Happ
				FanDuel			DraftKings
				Salary:		$8,500	Salary:		$10,900
				FPPG:		37.4	FPPG:		18.8
				Pitcher Rating:		68.7	Pitcher Rank:		7
L14 Days	2	4.15	17.0%	6.8%	8.5%	53.5%	30.2%	22.2%	0.00
2016	7	4.53	15.7%	6.8%	8.9%	43.0%	33.1%	29.0%	0.74
2015	31	3.82	21.1%	6.3%	8.1%	41.6%	34.1%	31.2%	0.84

Happ is going to experience some regression here soon. He may have a 2.05 ERA on the season, but his advanced statistics suggest another story. He currently has a 4.53 SIERA with a strikeout rate of only 15.7%. I never like targeting pitchers that are performing well thanks to luck rather than skill. Happ draws a difficult matchup tonight against the Rays, who are much better offensively against lefties than they are against righties. Happ just seems a bit overpriced when you factor in the matchup and the ballpark. If he was in the $7,000 price range, he would be more playable.

Batter Grind Down

Tampa Bay

The Rays have a lot of right-handed hitters in their lineup, which is why they are an above-average offense against left-handed pitching. They see a nice ballpark boost tonight playing in the Rogers Centre and they draw a favorable matchup against J.A. Happ. Over the last two seasons, Happ has allowed a .306 wOBA and 18 home runs to right-handed hitters.

Rays Offense (2016)
Team wOBA vs. LHP — 0.327 (11 of 30)
Team ISO vs. LHP — 0.197 (5 of 30)
Team K% vs. LHP — 24.3% (23 of 30)
Runs Per Game — 3.66 (26 of 30)
Projected Run Total — 3.87 (13 of 18)

Projected Lineup

#	Player	Bats	wOBA vs. LHP	ISO vs. LHP	wOBA L14	FD Position	FD Salary	DK Position	DK Salary
1	Brandon Guyer	RIGHT	0.381	0.187	0.508	OF	$3,000	OF	$3,200
2	Desmond Jennings	RIGHT	0.247	0.051	0.182	OF	$2,200	OF	$2,700
3	Evan Longoria	RIGHT	0.390	0.230	0.377	3B	$3,500	3B	$4,200
4	Steve Pearce	RIGHT	0.329	0.221	0.427	OF	$2,800	1B/2B	$3,100
5	Steven Souza	RIGHT	0.348	0.224	0.369	OF	$3,000	OF	$3,700
6	Brad Miller	LEFT	0.228	0.044	0.323	SS	$2,900	SS	$2,500
7	Tim Beckham	RIGHT	0.286	0.187	0.098	SS	$2,000	2B/SS	$2,700
8	Kevin Kiermaier	LEFT	0.272	0.112	0.245	OF	$3,000	OF	$2,700
9	Curt Casali	RIGHT	0.321	0.250	0.443	C	$2,400	C	$2,800
	Team Averages	—	0.311	0.167	0.330	—	—	—	—

Elite Plays – Brandon Guyer, Evan Longoria

Secondary Plays – Steve Pearce, Steven Souza

Stackability – GPP

Toronto

The Blue Jays have slowly picked it up against lefties this season. Even though the numbers don’t show it, they are a top three offense when they are facing a southpaw, especially when they are facing one at home. The main issue with Toronto tonight is their matchup. Over the last two seasons, Drew Smyly has held both left and right-handed hitters under a .300 wOBA. I like the Blue Jays’ bats for tournaments, but will be looking elsewhere for cash games.

Blue Jays Offense (2016)
Team wOBA vs. LHP — 0.318 (13 of 30)
Team ISO vs. LHP — 0.146 (17 of 30)
Team K% vs. LHP — 21.6% (14 of 30)
Runs Per Game — 4.08 (21 of 30)
Projected Run Total — 4.13 (10 of 18)

Projected Lineup

#	Player	Bats	wOBA vs. LHP	ISO vs. LHP	wOBA L14	FD Position	FD Salary	DK Position	DK Salary
1	Kevin Pillar	RIGHT	0.311	0.104	0.348	OF	$3,100	OF	$3,000
2	Josh Donaldson	RIGHT	0.444	0.335	0.246	3B	$3,900	3B	$4,300
3	Jose Bautista	RIGHT	0.353	0.201	0.288	OF	$4,200	OF	$3,700
4	Edwin Encarnacion	RIGHT	0.372	0.241	0.372	1B	$3,700	1B	$3,700
5	Justin Smoak	SWITCH	0.318	0.203	0.517	1B	$3,100	1B	$3,300
6	Troy Tulowitzki	RIGHT	0.336	0.143	0.334	SS	$3,200	SS	$3,700
7	Michael Saunders	LEFT	0.437	0.268	0.401	OF	$3,300	OF	$3,200
8	Russell Martin	RIGHT	0.368	0.185	0.229	C	$2,200	C	$3,100
9	Darwin Barney	RIGHT	0.329	0.119	0.272	SS	$2,200	2B/3B	$2,200
	Team Averages	—	0.363	0.200	0.334	—	—	—	—

MLB Grind Down: Monday, May 16th

Cincinnati at Cleveland – 6:10 PM

Pitcher Grind Down

Batter Grind Down

Cincinnati

Projected Lineup

Elite Plays – Joey Votto, Jay Bruce

Secondary Plays – Zack Cozart, Jose Peraza, Brandon Phillips

Stackability – GPP

Cleveland

Projected Lineup

Elite Plays – Francisco Lindor, Mike Napoli

Secondary Plays – Carlos Santana, Jose Ramirez, Marlon Byrd

Stackability – GPP

Atlanta at Pittsburgh – 7:05 PM

Pitcher Grind Down

Batter Grind Down

Atlanta

Projected Lineup

Elite Plays – NONE

Secondary Plays – NONE

Stackability – NONE

Pittsburgh

Projected Lineup

Elite Plays – John Jaso, Gregory Polanco, Jung Ho Kang

Secondary Plays – Andrew McCutchen, Starling Marte, Francisco Cervelli

Stackability – Cash & GPP

Boston at Kansas City – 7:05 PM

Pitcher Grind Down

Batter Grind Down

Boston

Projected Lineup

Elite Plays – Mookie Betts, David Ortiz

Secondary Plays – Dustin Pedroia, Xander Bogaerts, Hanley Ramirez, Travis Shaw

Stackability – GPP

Kansas City

Projected Lineup

Elite Plays – NONE

Secondary Plays – Eric Hosmer, Kendrys Morales, Alex Gordon

Stackability – NONE

Miami at Philadelphia – 7:05 PM

Pitcher Grind Down

Batter Grind Down

Miami

Projected Lineup

Elite Plays – Derek Dietrich, Justin Bour

Secondary Plays – Christian Yelich, Giancarlo Stanton

Stackability – NONE

Philadelphia

Projected Lineup

Elite Plays – NONE

Secondary Plays – Odubel Herrera

Stackability – NONE

Tampa Bay at Toronto – 7:07 PM

Pitcher Grind Down

Batter Grind Down

Tampa Bay

Projected Lineup

Elite Plays – Brandon Guyer, Evan Longoria

Secondary Plays – Steve Pearce, Steven Souza

Stackability – GPP

Toronto

Projected Lineup

Elite Plays – NONE

Secondary Plays – Josh Donaldson, Jose Bautista, Edwin Encarnacion, Justin Smoak, Troy Tulowitzki

Stackability – GPP

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