MLB Grind Down: Monday, September 19th - Page Two

by Derek Farnsworth (Notorious) Last Updated 2016-09-19 21:48:27

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LA Angels at Texas – 8:05 PM ET

Stats	wOBA	HR All.	HC%	K%	Stats	wOBA	HR All.	HC%	K%
LA Angels					Texas
			Jhoulys Chacin					Martin Perez
			RIGHT					LEFT
			Vegas Moneyline					Vegas Over/Under
			TEX -158					10.0
SP vs. Left (2016)	0.343	8	36.2%	13.0%	SP vs. Left (2016)	0.249	2	22.4%	19.0%
SP vs. Right (2016)	0.322	5	27.1%	24.5%	SP vs. Right (2016)	0.337	14	32.9%	10.7%

Pitcher Grind Down

Statistics	Starts	PitchPS	SIERA	ERA	K%	BB%	SS%	GB%	FB%	HC%
Jhoulys Chacin
					FanDuel			DraftKings
					Salary:		$5,400	Salary:		$4,500
					FPPG:		16.8	FPPG:		7.9
					Pitcher Rating:		51.8	Pitcher Rank:		15
L30 Days	2	77.5	3.42	3.18	25.3%	7.4%	10.3%	43.8%	25.0%	21.9%
2016	19	86.9	4.43	5.43	18.5%	8.9%	8.0%	48.5%	28.8%	32.2%
2015	4	86.5	4.28	3.38	18.9%	9.0%	8.9%	47.4%	33.3%	38.8%

Home (2015-16):—ERA: 3.70 — K%: 19.6% — wOBA Allowed: 0.281
Away (2015-16):—ERA: 6.40 — K%: 17.8% — wOBA Allowed: 0.373

Chacin’s splits are drastically different as a starter than they are as a reliever. In his 19 starts this season, he has a 5.92 ERA with a .352 wOBA allowed. As a reliever, he has a 3.77 ERA with a .262 wOBA allowed. Basically, we should fall for the recent improvement in numbers, as most of that came from out of the bullpen. He should be avoided tonight against the Rangers, who are ranked 11th or better in team wOBA, team ISO, and team K% against right-handed pitching this season.

Statistics	Starts	PitchPS	SIERA	ERA	K%	BB%	SS%	GB%	FB%	HC%
Martin Perez
					FanDuel			DraftKings
					Salary:		$6,800	Salary:		$6,200
					FPPG:		23.3	FPPG:		10.5
					Pitcher Rating:		37.5	Pitcher Rank:		19
L30 Days	5	95.4	4.93	4.80	14.9%	8.2%	9.9%	46.5%	31.3%	31.4%
2016	30	94.9	5.15	4.20	12.3%	9.2%	7.9%	52.9%	26.6%	31.0%
2015	14	86.8	4.06	4.46	14.2%	7.1%	7.5%	59.9%	22.1%	22.7%

Home (2015-16):—ERA: 3.04 — K%: 13.5% — wOBA Allowed: 0.297
Away (2015-16):—ERA: 5.47 — K%: 12.3% — wOBA Allowed: 0.339

Perez is a sizable favorite tonight, but a potential win isn’t enough to make up for the lack of strikeout potential. In 30 starts this season, he owns a 5.15 SIERA with a strikeout rate of only 12.3%. If his low k-rate wasn’t bad enough, he has to face an Angels’ offense that has the fewest strikeouts of any team in baseball this season. Perez is an easy fade in both cash games and tournaments.

Batter Grind Down

LA Angels

The Angels see a favorable ballpark shift tonight playing in the hitter-friendly Globe Life Park. They have the fifth highest team total on the board, as they square off against Martin Perez. While I don’t love targeting hitters against elite ground ball pitchers, I always make an exception for Perez. He has allowed a .337 wOBA and a hard contact rate of 32.9% to right-handed hitters this season.

Angels Offense (2016)
Team wOBA vs. LHP — 0.318 (18 of 30)
Team wOBA L30 Days — 0.304 (25 of 30)
Team ISO vs. LHP — 0.147 (24 of 30)
Team K% vs. LHP — 16.7% (1 of 30)
Pitches Per PA vs. LHP — 3.83 (20 of 30)
Runs Per Game — 4.36 (19 of 30)
Projected Run Total — 4.66 (5 of 22)

Projected Lineup

#	Player	Bats	wOBA vs. LHP	ISO vs. LHP	HC% vs. LHP	wOBA L14	FD Position	FD Salary	DK Position	DK Salary
1	Yunel Escobar	RIGHT	0.368	0.145	26.0%	0.197	3B	$2,800	3B	$3,800
2	Kole Calhoun	LEFT	0.343	0.151	33.1%	0.299	OF	$3,300	OF	$4,300
3	Mike Trout	RIGHT	0.387	0.178	44.2%	0.304	OF	$4,200	OF	$4,700
4	Albert Pujols	RIGHT	0.362	0.258	40.3%	0.288	1B	$3,400	1B	$4,300
5	C.J. Cron	RIGHT	0.282	0.155	28.6%	0.276	1B	$2,700	1B	$3,700
6	Andrelton Simmons	RIGHT	0.340	0.126	22.8%	0.477	SS	$2,300	SS	$4,000
7	Carlos Perez	RIGHT	0.216	0.068	26.3%	0.089	C	$2,100	C	$2,500
8	Gregorio Petit	RIGHT	0.291	0.115	29.4%	0.292	SS	$2,400	2B/SS	$2,700
9	Shane Robinson	RIGHT	0.269	0.087	18.4%	0.146	OF	$2,200	OF	$2,700
	Team Averages	—	0.318	0.143	29.9%	0.263	—	—	—	—

Elite Plays – Mike Trout

Secondary Plays – Yunel Escobar, Albert Pujols, Andrelton Simmons

Stackability – YELLOW

Texas

The Rangers have been one of the best offenses in baseball over the last month of play, ranking fourth in team wOBA during that stretch. They draw a favorable matchup tonight against Jhoulys Chacin, who as I mentioned above, has struggled as a starter this season. The left-handed hitters in this Rangers’ lineup are in a great spot, as Chacin has allowed a .343 wOBA and a hard contact rate of 36.2% to lefties in 2016.

Rangers Offense (2016)
Team wOBA vs. RHP — 0.325 (11 of 30)
Team wOBA L30 Days — 0.341 (4 of 30)
Team ISO vs. RHP — 0.177 (7 of 30)
Team K% vs. RHP — 19.9% (8 of 30)
Pitches Per PA vs. RHP — 3.83 (23 of 30)
Runs Per Game — 4.79 (5 of 30)
Projected Run Total — 5.34 (4 of 22)

Projected Lineup

#	Player	Bats	wOBA vs. RHP	ISO vs. RHP	HC% vs. RHP	wOBA L14	FD Position	FD Salary	DK Position	DK Salary
1	Carlos Gomez	RIGHT	0.288	0.163	30.3%	0.419	OF	$3,200	OF	$4,100
2	Ian Desmond	RIGHT	0.333	0.173	30.0%	0.291	OF	$3,500	OF	$4,200
3	Carlos Beltran	SWITCH	0.341	0.205	33.9%	0.376	OF	$3,700	OF	$4,400
4	Adrian Beltre	RIGHT	0.350	0.201	32.8%	0.424	3B	$3,100	3B	$4,700
5	Rougned Odor	LEFT	0.350	0.250	34.9%	0.389	2B	$3,900	2B	$4,800
6	Jonathan Lucroy	RIGHT	0.376	0.195	32.5%	0.311	C	$3,500	C	$5,000
7	Mitch Moreland	LEFT	0.318	0.203	35.6%	0.193	1B	$3,000	1B	$3,200
8	Nomar Mazara	LEFT	0.341	0.184	30.4%	0.317	OF	$3,100	OF	$4,000
9	Elvis Andrus	RIGHT	0.322	0.115	25.8%	0.394	SS	$2,900	SS	$4,200
	Team Averages	—	0.335	0.188	31.8%	0.346	—	—	—	—

Elite Plays – Carlos Beltran, Rougned Odor

Secondary Plays – Carlos Gomez, Ian Desmond, Adrian Beltre, Jonathan Lucroy

Stackability – GREEN

St. Louis at Colorado – 8:40 PM ET

Stats	wOBA	HR All.	HC%	K%	Stats	wOBA	HR All.	HC%	K%
St. Louis					Colorado
			Carlos Martinez					Tyler Anderson
			RIGHT					LEFT
			Vegas Moneyline					Vegas Over/Under
			COL -100					11.5
SP vs. Left (2016)	0.330	11	33.3%	17.7%	SP vs. Left (2016)	0.260	0	22.9%	18.6%
SP vs. Right (2016)	0.236	3	22.9%	24.7%	SP vs. Right (2016)	0.328	11	30.7%	22.7%

Pitcher Grind Down

Statistics	Starts	PitchPS	SIERA	ERA	K%	BB%	SS%	GB%	FB%	HC%
Carlos Martinez
					FanDuel			DraftKings
					Salary:		$8,400	Salary:		$8,300
					FPPG:		32.4	FPPG:		16.7
					Pitcher Rating:		59.4	Pitcher Rank:		13
L30 Days	5	99.0	3.62	2.73	25.0%	8.1%	11.5%	54.0%	27.6%	25.8%
2016	28	97.0	4.03	3.15	20.9%	8.5%	9.0%	55.8%	26.2%	28.7%
2015	29	98.1	3.44	3.01	24.4%	8.3%	10.5%	54.5%	25.5%	27.6%

Home (2015-16):—ERA: 3.69 — K%: 21.2% — wOBA Allowed: 0.311
Away (2015-16):—ERA: 2.45 — K%: 24.2% — wOBA Allowed: 0.276

Martinez has pitched well in his last five starts, posting a 2.73 ERA with a strikeout rate of 25%. Unfortunately, Coors Field trumps current form for pitchers. Tonight’s game is basically set as a pick ‘em with the over/under set at 11.5 runs. Martinez has the high ground ball rate and high strikeout rate (which is what you need to succeed in Coors Field), but do you really want to take a pitcher in a game with this high of a total?

Statistics	Starts	PitchPS	SIERA	ERA	K%	BB%	SS%	GB%	FB%	HC%
Tyler Anderson
					FanDuel			DraftKings
					Salary:		$6,400	Salary:		$6,900
					FPPG:		28.5	FPPG:		15.0
					Pitcher Rating:		63.9	Pitcher Rank:		8
L30 Days	5	97.0	3.61	4.20	25.4%	7.1%	13.6%	45.1%	30.5%	29.4%
2016	17	93.9	3.76	3.65	21.8%	6.2%	11.0%	51.6%	28.0%	28.9%

Home (2015-16):—ERA: 3.04 — K%: 20.9% — wOBA Allowed: 0.310
Away (2015-16):—ERA: 5.10 — K%: 23.8% — wOBA Allowed: 0.316

Anderson is enjoying a nice rookie season and the craziest part is that his best starts have come at home in Coors Field. He is a ground ball pitcher with an above-average strikeout rate. He draws a decent matchup on paper, as the Cardinals are ranked 20th in team wOBA against left-handed pitching. However, we still have that extremely high over/under to worry about. If you are looking at either pitcher in this game, use them exclusively in GPPs.

Batter Grind Down

St. Louis

The Cardinals have been a mediocre offense against left-handed pitching this season, but they come into the game with the second highest run projection in the slate. They see a massive ballpark boost playing in Coors Field. Give a sizable boost to the right-handed hitters in this lineup, as Tyler Anderson has allowed a .328 wOBA and 11 home runs to righties this season.

Cardinals Offense (2016)
Team wOBA vs. LHP — 0.316 (20 of 30)
Team wOBA L30 Days — 0.311 (22 of 30)
Team ISO vs. LHP — 0.167 (13 of 30)
Team K% vs. LHP — 21.0% (13 of 30)
Pitches Per PA vs. LHP — 3.84 (19 of 30)
Runs Per Game — 4.78 (6 of 30)
Projected Run Total — 5.74 (2 of 22)

Projected Lineup

#	Player	Bats	wOBA vs. LHP	ISO vs. LHP	HC% vs. LHP	wOBA L14	FD Position	FD Salary	DK Position	DK Salary
1	Matt Carpenter	LEFT	0.357	0.167	30.2%	0.319	2B	$4,300	2B/3B	$4,200
2	Aledmys Diaz	RIGHT	0.322	0.156	29.5%	0.267	SS	$3,800	SS	$4,400
3	Stephen Piscotty	RIGHT	0.424	0.276	30.0%	0.306	OF	$3,800	OF	$4,800
4	Brandon Moss	LEFT	0.317	0.167	36.5%	0.166	1B	$4,000	1B/OF	$3,800
5	Yadier Molina	RIGHT	0.340	0.119	29.7%	0.367	C	$3,600	C	$3,200
6	Jhonny Peralta	RIGHT	0.250	0.138	28.3%	0.285	SS	$3,000	3B	$3,400
7	Jedd Gyorko	RIGHT	0.299	0.136	32.4%	0.292	3B	$3,400	2B/3B	$3,600
8	Randal Grichuk	RIGHT	0.317	0.222	36.8%	0.358	OF	$3,800	OF	$3,600
9	Carlos Martinez	RIGHT	0.146	0.000	37.5%	0.146	P	$8,400	P	$8,300
	Team Averages	—	0.308	0.153	32.3%	0.278	—	—	—	—

Elite Plays – Aledmys Diaz, Stephen Piscotty, Yadier Molina

Secondary Plays – Matt Carpenter, Jhonny Peralta, Jedd Gyorko

Stackability – GREEN

Colorado

The Rockies technically have the highest run projection, but this game is basically set as a pick ‘em. Their matchup against Carlos Martinez doesn’t look great on paper, but this is Coors Field. Give an edge to the left-handed hitters in this lineup, as Martinez has allowed a .330 wOBA and 11 home runs to lefties this season.

Rockies Offense (2016)
Team wOBA vs. RHP — 0.345 (2 of 30)
Team wOBA L30 Days — 0.347 (2 of 30)
Team ISO vs. RHP — 0.193 (3 of 30)
Team K% vs. RHP — 20.5% (13 of 30)
Pitches Per PA vs. RHP — 3.90 (10 of 30)
Runs Per Game — 5.36 (2 of 30)
Projected Run Total — 5.76 (1 of 22)

Projected Lineup

#	Player	Bats	wOBA vs. RHP	ISO vs. RHP	HC% vs. RHP	wOBA L14	FD Position	FD Salary	DK Position	DK Salary
1	Charlie Blackmon	LEFT	0.405	0.278	38.9%	0.526	OF	$4,900	OF	$5,600
2	DJ LeMahieu	RIGHT	0.388	0.135	34.4%	0.373	2B	$4,100	2B	$4,500
3	Carlos Gonzalez	LEFT	0.378	0.211	36.6%	0.291	OF	$4,300	OF	$4,900
4	Nolan Arenado	RIGHT	0.401	0.298	36.9%	0.401	3B	$4,000	3B	$5,200
5	David Dahl	LEFT	0.377	0.220	35.6%	0.294	OF	$3,900	OF	$4,400
6	Tom Murphy	RIGHT	0.492	0.500	38.5%	0.508	C	$3,200	C	$3,000
7	Gerardo Parra	LEFT	0.282	0.155	35.0%	0.087	OF	$3,400	1B/OF	$3,100
8	Daniel Descalso	LEFT	0.351	0.162	30.6%	0.380	SS	$3,000	1B/SS	$3,600
9	Tyler Anderson	LEFT	0.223	0.120	15.8%	0.000	P	$6,400	P	$6,900
	Team Averages	—	0.366	0.231	33.6%	0.318	—	—	—	—

Elite Plays – Charlie Blackmon, Carlos Gonzalez, David Dahl, Tom Murphy

Secondary Plays – DJ LeMahieu, Nolan Arenado, Gerardo Parra

Stackability – GREEN

Houston at Oakland – 10:05 PM ET

Stats	wOBA	HR All.	HC%	K%	Stats	wOBA	HR All.	HC%	K%
Houston					Oakland
			Brad Peacock					Jharel Cotton
			RIGHT					RIGHT
			Vegas Moneyline					Vegas Over/Under
			HOU -120					8.5
SP vs. Left (2016)	0.334	1	32.0%	20.0%	SP vs. Left (2016)	0.140	0	21.4%	19.1%
SP vs. Right (2016)	0.268	2	22.7%	21.9%	SP vs. Right (2016)	0.316	1	19.2%	3.7%

Pitcher Grind Down

Statistics	Starts	PitchPS	SIERA	ERA	K%	BB%	SS%	GB%	FB%	HC%
Brad Peacock
					FanDuel			DraftKings
					Salary:		$5,400	Salary:		$6,700
					FPPG:		11.0	FPPG:		6.4
					Pitcher Rating:		56.9	Pitcher Rank:		14
L30 Days	2	75.5	4.40	2.70	20.9%	9.0%	8.7%	36.2%	48.9%	27.7%
2016	2	75.5	4.40	2.70	20.9%	9.0%	8.7%	36.2%	48.9%	27.7%
2015	1	85.0	5.23	5.40	13.6%	9.1%	5.9%	31.3%	37.5%	31.3%

Home (2015-16):—ERA: 3.21 — K%: 20.0% — wOBA Allowed: 0.294
Away (2015-16):—ERA: 3.52 — K%: 17.7% — wOBA Allowed: 0.343

Peacock is making his third start and his eighth appearance overall this season. He currently owns a 4.40 SIERA with a strikeout rate of 20.9%. He has yet to throw more than 79 pitches in any single outing, which does limit his upside quite a bit. He draws a decent matchup against the A’s, but they are one of the most difficult teams to strikeout in the majors. There are better pitching options for both cash games and tournaments.

Statistics	Starts	PitchPS	SIERA	ERA	K%	BB%	SS%	GB%	FB%	HC%
Jharel Cotton
					FanDuel			DraftKings
					Salary:		$5,500	Salary:		$5,900
					FPPG:		28.5	FPPG:		14.9
					Pitcher Rating:		35.1	Pitcher Rank:		21
L30 Days	2	102.5	5.88	1.50	10.4%	6.3%	10.2%	30.0%	50.0%	20.0%
2016	2	102.5	5.88	1.50	10.4%	6.3%	10.2%	30.0%	50.0%	20.0%

Home (2015-16):—ERA: 1.42 — K%: 13.6% — wOBA Allowed: 0.194
Away (2015-16):—ERA: 1.59 — K%: 7.7% — wOBA Allowed: 0.277

Cotton is making his third career major league start. He has a low ERA of 1.50, but we haven’t seen the strikeout upside that we did in the minors. At the Triple-A level this season, he posted a strikeout rate of 29.5%. I see him as a sneaky GPP play tonight against the Astros, who have the fourth highest strikeout rate against right-handed pitching this season. Cotton is still a wildcard at this point, but I’d rather take a shot on him than Brad Peacock.

Batter Grind Down

Houston

The Astros see a negative ballpark shift tonight and they are facing a rookie that has shown nice upside in the minor leagues. Houston’s run projection of 4.37 seems a bit high to me, but there is always merit to stacking offenses against inexperienced pitchers. I’m not going to use any Astros’ hitters in cash games, but you can stack them or use them as one-off targets in GPPs.

Astros Offense (2016)
Team wOBA vs. RHP — 0.319 (12 of 30)
Team wOBA L30 Days — 0.328 (6 of 30)
Team ISO vs. RHP — 0.173 (10 of 30)
Team K% vs. RHP — 23.8% (27 of 30)
Pitches Per PA vs. RHP — 3.86 (15 of 30)
Runs Per Game — 4.55 (14 of 30)
Projected Run Total — 4.37 (10 of 22)

Projected Lineup

#	Player	Bats	wOBA vs. RHP	ISO vs. RHP	HC% vs. RHP	wOBA L14	FD Position	FD Salary	DK Position	DK Salary
1	George Springer	RIGHT	0.331	0.171	31.3%	0.327	OF	$3,600	OF	$3,800
2	Yuli Gurriel	RIGHT	0.363	0.173	29.6%	0.366	3B	$3,000	1B/3B	$2,900
3	Jose Altuve	RIGHT	0.397	0.211	33.0%	0.297	2B	$3,600	2B	$5,300
4	Carlos Correa	RIGHT	0.361	0.197	35.8%	0.247	SS	$3,500	SS	$4,300
5	Evan Gattis	RIGHT	0.319	0.234	33.7%	0.346	C	$3,100	C	$3,700
6	Colby Rasmus	LEFT	0.303	0.164	35.9%	0.302	OF	$2,200	OF	$3,800
7	Marwin Gonzalez	SWITCH	0.293	0.144	35.8%	0.310	1B	$2,500	1B	$3,300
8	Jason Castro	LEFT	0.337	0.214	40.0%	0.191	C	$2,900	C	$3,200
9	Jake Marisnick	RIGHT	0.234	0.092	24.1%	0.213	OF	$2,400	OF	$2,900
	Team Averages	—	0.326	0.178	33.2%	0.289	—	—	—	—

Elite Plays – NONE

Secondary Plays – George Springer, Yuli Gurriel, Jose Altuve, Carlos Correa, Evan Gattis

Stackability – YELLOW

Oakland

The A’s have not fared well against right-handed pitching this season, ranking 27th in team wOBA and 23rd in team ISO. They draw a decent matchup against Brad Peacock, but at this point we just pick our spots with this offense. Khris Davis is always one of my favorite one-off targets. He has a 39.6% hard contact rate against right-handed pitching this season.

Athletics Offense (2016)
Team wOBA vs. RHP — 0.305 (27 of 30)
Team wOBA L30 Days — 0.306 (23 of 30)
Team ISO vs. RHP — 0.149 (23 of 30)
Team K% vs. RHP — 18.9% (4 of 30)
Pitches Per PA vs. RHP — 3.84 (21 of 30)
Runs Per Game — 4.13 (26 of 30)
Projected Run Total — 4.13 (16 of 22)

Projected Lineup

#	Player	Bats	wOBA vs. RHP	ISO vs. RHP	HC% vs. RHP	wOBA L14	FD Position	FD Salary	DK Position	DK Salary
1	Joey Wendle	LEFT	0.332	0.079	32.4%	0.352	3B	$2,700	2B	$2,600
2	Danny Valencia	RIGHT	0.323	0.148	32.1%	0.346	3B	$3,400	3B/OF	$3,700
3	Stephen Vogt	LEFT	0.320	0.161	27.3%	0.275	C	$3,400	C	$3,500
4	Khris Davis	RIGHT	0.339	0.262	39.6%	0.390	OF	$3,600	OF	$4,200
5	Ryon Healy	RIGHT	0.366	0.197	29.2%	0.496	3B	$3,800	3B	$3,600
6	Yonder Alonso	LEFT	0.311	0.119	34.9%	0.393	1B	$2,800	1B	$3,300
7	Marcus Semien	RIGHT	0.306	0.185	27.6%	0.318	SS	$3,400	SS	$3,500
8	Bruce Maxwell	LEFT	0.332	0.071	43.8%	0.461	C	$2,700	C	$2,600
9	Brett Eibner	RIGHT	0.277	0.177	20.0%	0.395	OF	$2,000	OF	$3,400
	Team Averages	—	0.323	0.155	31.9%	0.381	—	—	—	—

Elite Plays – Khris Davis

Secondary Plays – Joey Wendle, Danny Valencia

Stackability – ORANGE

Arizona at San Diego – 10:10 PM ET

Stats	wOBA	HR All.	HC%	K%	Stats	wOBA	HR All.	HC%	K%
Arizona					San Diego
			Braden Shipley					Clayton Richard
			RIGHT					LEFT
			Vegas Moneyline					Vegas Over/Under
			SD -113					8.5
SP vs. Left (2016)	0.365	9	36.9%	13.6%	SP vs. Left (2016)	0.308	0	17.0%	18.9%
SP vs. Right (2016)	0.414	2	40.5%	12.2%	SP vs. Right (2016)	0.352	3	28.8%	14.6%

Pitcher Grind Down

Statistics	Starts	PitchPS	SIERA	ERA	K%	BB%	SS%	GB%	FB%	HC%
Braden Shipley
					FanDuel			DraftKings
					Salary:		$5,400	Salary:		$6,000
					FPPG:		18.5	FPPG:		7.5
					Pitcher Rating:		44.4	Pitcher Rank:		18
L30 Days	3	90.3	5.01	7.01	12.4%	8.0%	8.8%	47.1%	27.6%	33.3%
2016	8	92.1	5.33	5.56	13.0%	9.2%	7.6%	43.6%	33.7%	38.4%

Home (2015-16):—ERA: 5.96 — K%: 6.8% — wOBA Allowed: 0.406
Away (2015-16):—ERA: 5.22 — K%: 19.0% — wOBA Allowed: 0.366

Not even a matchup against the Padres in Petco Park will get me on Shipley at this point. In eight starts this season, he has a 5.33 SIERA with a strikeout rate of 13% and a walk rate of 9.2%. He has allowed a lot of hard contact and he comes into tonight’s game as an underdog on the road. I know that the Padres are the best matchup on the board, but I’d rather take a shot on some of the other cheap pitchers in this slate.

Statistics	Starts	PitchPS	SIERA	ERA	K%	BB%	SS%	GB%	FB%	HC%
Clayton Richard
					FanDuel			DraftKings
					Salary:		$6,800	Salary:		$4,000
					FPPG:		6.9	FPPG:		3.2
					Pitcher Rating:		67.6	Pitcher Rank:		7
L30 Days	5	95.0	3.53	1.17	18.2%	7.6%	9.7%	66.3%	15.3%	26.5%
2016	6	94.0	4.03	3.00	16.0%	9.5%	8.6%	66.5%	17.6%	25.2%
2015	3	85.0	3.33	3.83	12.2%	3.9%	6.2%	59.3%	14.7%	25.2%

Home (2015-16):—ERA: 3.69 — K%: 16.4% — wOBA Allowed: 0.313
Away (2015-16):—ERA: 3.15 — K%: 12.7% — wOBA Allowed: 0.333

Richard may not have the highest strikeout rate, but he has been incredibly effective. In his last five starts, he has a 1.17 ERA. He is an elite ground ball pitcher that limits the hard contact against him. He draws a difficult matchup tonight though, as he takes on the Diamondbacks. On the season, Arizona is ranked first in both team wOBA and team ISO against left-handed pitching. Given the matchup and the lack of strikeout upside, Richard is a GPP flier at best.

Batter Grind Down

Arizona

The Diamondbacks may be the best offense in baseball against left-handed pitching, but this isn’t a great matchup to exploit. Clayton Richard is an elite ground ball pitcher with a ground ball rate of 66.5%. There is a reason why Arizona has the eighth lowest implied team total on the board. Their batters are best suited as one-off GPP targets.

Diamondbacks Offense (2016)
Team wOBA vs. LHP — 0.353 (1 of 30)
Team wOBA L30 Days — 0.322 (17 of 30)
Team ISO vs. LHP — 0.210 (1 of 30)
Team K% vs. LHP — 23.8% (26 of 30)
Pitches Per PA vs. LHP — 3.83 (21 of 30)
Runs Per Game — 4.71 (9 of 30)
Projected Run Total — 4.17 (15 of 22)

Projected Lineup

#	Player	Bats	wOBA vs. LHP	ISO vs. LHP	HC% vs. LHP	wOBA L14	FD Position	FD Salary	DK Position	DK Salary
1	Jean Segura	RIGHT	0.328	0.168	28.0%	0.407	2B	$3,500	2B	$5,100
2	Chris Owings	RIGHT	0.368	0.204	27.6%	0.303	SS	$2,500	OF/SS	$4,000
3	Paul Goldschmidt	RIGHT	0.450	0.235	44.1%	0.300	1B	$3,900	1B	$4,700
4	Jake Lamb	LEFT	0.288	0.196	29.0%	0.319	3B	$3,500	3B	$4,700
5	Welington Castillo	RIGHT	0.375	0.259	51.9%	0.290	C	$3,200	C	$3,900
6	Yasmany Tomas	RIGHT	0.447	0.325	46.1%	0.326	OF	$2,600	OF	$4,200
7	Brandon Drury	RIGHT	0.323	0.186	33.0%	0.540	OF	$3,500	3B/OF	$4,300
8	Mitch Haniger	RIGHT	0.326	0.250	57.1%	0.343	OF	$2,400	OF	$4,100
9	Braden Shipley	RIGHT	0.000	0.000	33.3%	0.219	P	$5,400	P	$6,000
	Team Averages	—	0.323	0.203	38.9%	0.339	—	—	—	—

Elite Plays – Paul Goldschmidt

Secondary Plays – Chris Owings, Welington Castillo, Yasmany Tomas

Stackability – ORANGE / YELLOW

San Diego

The Padres have been one of the worst offenses in all of baseball this season. The good news is that they get to face a hittable pitcher at home. On the season, Braden Shipley has allowed a .365 wOBA to left-handed hitters and a .414 wOBA to right-handed hitters. The Padres are a sneaky offense to target in all league formats.

Padres Offense (2016)
Team wOBA vs. RHP — 0.291 (30 of 30)
Team wOBA L30 Days — 0.280 (29 of 30)
Team ISO vs. RHP — 0.152 (22 of 30)
Team K% vs. RHP — 24.9% (29 of 30)
Pitches Per PA vs. RHP — 3.89 (12 of 30)
Runs Per Game — 4.23 (21 of 30)
Projected Run Total — 4.33 (12 of 22)

Projected Lineup

#	Player	Bats	wOBA vs. RHP	ISO vs. RHP	HC% vs. RHP	wOBA L14	FD Position	FD Salary	DK Position	DK Salary
1	Travis Jankowski	LEFT	0.335	0.092	27.5%	0.253	OF	$3,000	OF	$3,800
2	Luis Sardinas	SWITCH	0.256	0.087	21.4%	0.352	SS	$3,000	SS	$3,100
3	Wil Myers	RIGHT	0.333	0.192	32.3%	0.319	1B	$3,400	1B	$4,800
4	Ryan Schimpf	LEFT	0.377	0.338	40.2%	0.304	2B	$3,100	2B	$4,500
5	Alex Dickerson	LEFT	0.325	0.209	30.8%	0.309	OF	$3,000	OF	$3,700
6	Jon Jay	LEFT	0.317	0.111	32.1%	0.302	OF	$2,700	OF	$3,400
7	Derek Norris	RIGHT	0.246	0.151	31.3%	0.299	C	$2,400	C	$2,900
8	Alexi Amarista	LEFT	0.264	0.018	22.2%	0.101	SS	$2,100	2B/SS	$2,700
9	Clayton Richard	LEFT	0.000	0.000	0.0%	0.000	P	$6,800	P	$4,000
	Team Averages	—	0.273	0.133	26.4%	0.249	—	—	—	—

Elite Plays – Ryan Schimpf

Secondary Plays – Travis Jankowski, Wil Myers, Alex Dickerson

Stackability – ORANGE / YELLOW

San Francisco at LA Dodgers – 10:10 PM ET

Stats	wOBA	HR All.	HC%	K%	Stats	wOBA	HR All.	HC%	K%
San Francisco					LA Dodgers
			Madison Bumgarner					Clayton Kershaw
			LEFT					LEFT
			Vegas Moneyline					Vegas Over/Under
			LAD -166					6.0
SP vs. Left (2016)	0.247	4	26.3%	32.0%	SP vs. Left (2016)	0.150	0	26.9%	41.0%
SP vs. Right (2016)	0.276	19	32.2%	26.7%	SP vs. Right (2016)	0.225	7	29.7%	30.1%

Pitcher Grind Down

Statistics	Starts	PitchPS	SIERA	ERA	K%	BB%	SS%	GB%	FB%	HC%
Madison Bumgarner
					FanDuel			DraftKings
					Salary:		$10,500	Salary:		$12,600
					FPPG:		39.2	FPPG:		22.4
					Pitcher Rating:		91.8	Pitcher Rank:		3
L30 Days	5	104.2	3.19	4.99	27.5%	4.6%	10.9%	45.5%	39.8%	29.6%
2016	31	105.4	3.37	2.66	27.7%	6.2%	11.3%	39.5%	40.8%	31.2%
2015	32	103.5	3.00	2.93	26.9%	4.5%	12.5%	41.7%	35.6%	27.8%

Home (2015-16):—ERA: 1.99 — K%: 29.0% — wOBA Allowed: 0.240
Away (2015-16):—ERA: 3.76 — K%: 25.4% — wOBA Allowed: 0.300

If I had to choose one game to watch tonight, this would be it. Even though I will likely have zero exposure to it in daily fantasy, it should be a fun one. This is a big game for both teams, as they are both fighting to make the postseason. Bumgarner has gotten the better of Clayton Kershaw the last few seasons, but Vegas is expecting another pitcher’s duel tonight. Bumgarner makes an excellent GPP play, as the Dodgers are ranked 30th in team wOBA and 28th in team ISO against southpaws this season.

Statistics	Starts	PitchPS	SIERA	ERA	K%	BB%	SS%	GB%	FB%	HC%
Clayton Kershaw
					FanDuel			DraftKings
					Salary:		$10,600	Salary:		$12,500
					FPPG:		45.3	FPPG:		27.5
					Pitcher Rating:		95.3	Pitcher Rank:		2
L30 Days	2	65.0	1.85	2.25	32.3%	0.0%	12.3%	60.0%	20.0%	28.6%
2016	18	100.1	2.27	1.81	32.8%	1.9%	15.8%	50.5%	28.4%	29.1%
2015	33	102.8	2.24	2.13	33.8%	4.7%	15.9%	50.0%	28.2%	25.3%

Home (2015-16):—ERA: 1.55 — K%: 35.4% — wOBA Allowed: 0.201
Away (2015-16):—ERA: 2.48 — K%: 31.6% — wOBA Allowed: 0.243

Kershaw only threw 64 pitches in his last start, but the game was delayed over an hour and he would have thrown more. He is expected to throw between 90 and 100 pitches tonight, so we can consider him close to 90% in terms of his potential fantasy production. He draws a favorable matchup against the Giants, who are ranked 22nd in team wOBA and 25th in team ISO against southpaws this season. I still slightly prefer Noah Syndergaard because it will be easier for him to get the win, but Kershaw has as much upside as any pitcher in the slate.

Batter Grind Down

San Francisco

The Giants have the second lowest implied team total on the board tonight. There is no reason to look their way in DFS. In addition to an elite strikeout rate, Clayton Kershaw has held both left and right-handed hitters under a .225 wOBA this season.

Giants Offense (2016)
Team wOBA vs. LHP — 0.315 (22 of 30)
Team wOBA L30 Days — 0.302 (27 of 30)
Team ISO vs. LHP — 0.142 (25 of 30)
Team K% vs. LHP — 18.1% (2 of 30)
Pitches Per PA vs. LHP — 3.77 (29 of 30)
Runs Per Game — 4.40 (18 of 30)
Projected Run Total — 2.62 (21 of 22)

Projected Lineup

#	Player	Bats	wOBA vs. LHP	ISO vs. LHP	HC% vs. LHP	wOBA L14	FD Position	FD Salary	DK Position	DK Salary
1	Angel Pagan	SWITCH	0.311	0.160	24.1%	0.263	OF	$3,000	OF	$3,000
2	Kelby Tomlinson	RIGHT	0.351	0.051	21.6%	0.361	2B	$2,700	2B/SS	$2,400
3	Buster Posey	RIGHT	0.389	0.203	36.3%	0.337	C	$3,300	C	$3,900
4	Hunter Pence	RIGHT	0.383	0.278	38.4%	0.448	OF	$3,000	OF	$4,200
5	Brandon Crawford	LEFT	0.306	0.113	39.2%	0.246	SS	$3,000	SS	$3,000
6	Brandon Belt	LEFT	0.375	0.208	31.8%	0.403	1B	$3,500	1B	$3,800
7	Gorkys Hernandez	RIGHT	0.532	0.308	54.6%	0.631	OF	$2,300	OF	$2,100
8	Eduardo Nunez	RIGHT	0.315	0.193	33.3%	0.399	3B	$3,000	3B/SS	$4,600
9	Madison Bumgarner	LEFT	0.319	0.278	27.3%	0.138	P	$10,500	P	$12,600
	Team Averages	—	0.365	0.199	34.1%	0.358	—	—	—	—

Elite Plays – NONE

Secondary Plays – NONE

Stackability – RED

LA Dodgers

The Dodgers may be favored tonight, but they still have the third lowest implied team total in the slate. In what should be a pitcher’s duel, both offenses should be avoided. Madison Bumgarner has held both left and right-handed hitters under a .280 wOBA this season.

Dodgers Offense (2016)
Team wOBA vs. LHP — 0.275 (30 of 30)
Team wOBA L30 Days — 0.303 (26 of 30)
Team ISO vs. LHP — 0.119 (28 of 30)
Team K% vs. LHP — 22.4% (19 of 30)
Pitches Per PA vs. LHP — 3.91 (10 of 30)
Runs Per Game — 4.46 (16 of 30)
Projected Run Total — 3.38 (20 of 22)

Projected Lineup

#	Player	Bats	wOBA vs. LHP	ISO vs. LHP	HC% vs. LHP	wOBA L14	FD Position	FD Salary	DK Position	DK Salary
1	Howie Kendrick	RIGHT	0.306	0.063	30.3%	0.256	2B	$2,800	2B/OF	$3,000
2	Kike Hernandez	RIGHT	0.307	0.180	30.7%	0.263	OF	$2,100	OF	$2,900
3	Corey Seager	LEFT	0.319	0.179	41.1%	0.377	SS	$3,900	SS	$3,800
4	Justin Turner	RIGHT	0.277	0.132	39.7%	0.380	3B	$3,600	3B	$3,300
5	Adrian Gonzalez	LEFT	0.265	0.067	23.4%	0.234	1B	$3,400	1B	$2,900
6	Yasiel Puig	RIGHT	0.329	0.207	29.2%	0.419	OF	$2,500	OF	$3,900
7	Carlos Ruiz	RIGHT	0.355	0.127	40.9%	0.069	C	$2,400	C	$2,300
8	Rob Segedin	RIGHT	0.266	0.148	27.8%	0.196	OF	$2,100	3B/OF	$2,100
9	Clayton Kershaw	LEFT	0.153	0.000	0.0%	0.000	P	$10,600	P	$12,500
	Team Averages	—	0.286	0.123	29.2%	0.244	—	—	—	—

MLB Grind Down: Monday, September 19th - Page Two

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LA Angels at Texas – 8:05 PM ET

Pitcher Grind Down

Batter Grind Down

LA Angels

Projected Lineup

Elite Plays – Mike Trout

Secondary Plays – Yunel Escobar, Albert Pujols, Andrelton Simmons

Stackability – YELLOW

Texas

Projected Lineup

Elite Plays – Carlos Beltran, Rougned Odor

Secondary Plays – Carlos Gomez, Ian Desmond, Adrian Beltre, Jonathan Lucroy

Stackability – GREEN

St. Louis at Colorado – 8:40 PM ET

Pitcher Grind Down

Batter Grind Down

St. Louis

Projected Lineup

Elite Plays – Aledmys Diaz, Stephen Piscotty, Yadier Molina

Secondary Plays – Matt Carpenter, Jhonny Peralta, Jedd Gyorko

Stackability – GREEN

Colorado

Projected Lineup

Elite Plays – Charlie Blackmon, Carlos Gonzalez, David Dahl, Tom Murphy

Secondary Plays – DJ LeMahieu, Nolan Arenado, Gerardo Parra

Stackability – GREEN

Houston at Oakland – 10:05 PM ET

Pitcher Grind Down

Batter Grind Down

Houston

Projected Lineup

Elite Plays – NONE

Secondary Plays – George Springer, Yuli Gurriel, Jose Altuve, Carlos Correa, Evan Gattis

Stackability – YELLOW

Oakland

Projected Lineup

Elite Plays – Khris Davis

Secondary Plays – Joey Wendle, Danny Valencia

Stackability – ORANGE

Arizona at San Diego – 10:10 PM ET

Pitcher Grind Down

Batter Grind Down

Arizona

Projected Lineup

Elite Plays – Paul Goldschmidt

Secondary Plays – Chris Owings, Welington Castillo, Yasmany Tomas

Stackability – ORANGE / YELLOW

San Diego

Projected Lineup

Elite Plays – Ryan Schimpf

Secondary Plays – Travis Jankowski, Wil Myers, Alex Dickerson

Stackability – ORANGE / YELLOW

San Francisco at LA Dodgers – 10:10 PM ET

Pitcher Grind Down

Batter Grind Down

San Francisco

Projected Lineup

Elite Plays – NONE

Secondary Plays – NONE

Stackability – RED

LA Dodgers

Projected Lineup

Elite Plays – NONE

Secondary Plays – NONE

Stackability – RED

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