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MLB Grind Down: Saturday, May 20th

by Seth Yates (sethayates) Last Updated 2017-06-17 17:09:03

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The RotoGrinders MLB Grind Down will give you an in-depth analysis into the upcoming MLB schedule. This article will break down the numbers for every single game and give you analysis on which trends you can exploit. While matchups are a major factor in daily fantasy baseball, there are plenty of other factors to consider such as injuries, weather, and salaries.

The analysis should point you in the right direction, but it is still up to you to decipher the information and make your own selections. No sport has more variance than baseball. The best choice is not always the right choice but following the trends will win you money over time.

Note: As always, if you want to try a new DFS site, be sure to click through a RotoGrinders link and use our DraftKings promo code, FanDuel promo code, and FantasyDraft promo code to receive the best perks in the industry.

Stackability Rating System:

GREEN – A viable full stack in cash games and GPPs.
YELLOW – A viable mini-stack in cash games and full stack in GPPs.
ORANGE – A viable stack in large field GPPs.
RED – Not a recommended stack for cash games or GPPs.

Kansas City at Minnesota – 2:10 PM ET

Kansas City Minnesota
kansascitymlb Ian Kennedy minnesotamlb Adalberto Mejia
RIGHT LEFT
Vegas Moneyline Vegas Over/Under
MIN-107 9.0
Stats wOBA xwOBA HC% BB% K% GB% Stats wOBA xwOBA HC% BB% K% GB%
SP vs. Left (2016-17) 0.298 0.319 36.0% 8.8% 21.0% 30.4% SP vs. Left (2016-17) 1.060 0.736 50.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
SP vs. Right (2016-17) 0.315 0.324 36.7% 8.1% 24.0% 37.9% SP vs. Right (2016-17) 0.422 0.360 29.7% 15.8% 17.5% 37.8%

Pitcher Grind Down

Ian Kennedy
ian-kennedy-300x200 FanDuel DraftKings FantasyDraft
Salary: $8,000 Salary: $8,400 Salary: $16,400
Salary Rank: 10 of 30 Salary Rank: 10 of 30 Salary Rank: 10 of 30
Stats Starts SIERA ERA K% BB% GB% HC% SC%
2016 33 4.27 3.68 22.5% 8.1% 33.2% 36.4% 18.6%
2017 6 4.53 3.03 21.8% 10.6% 38.9% 35.8% 17.9%

Greetings Grinders! Just like most Saturdays, we have a full 15-game slate on the menu. The schedule is divided almost perfectly in half with eight games on the early slate and seven games on the late slate. Sadly, pitching is not divided nearly as evenly. Most of the better pitchers are in the early slate while we’ll have to take on some risk later. That’s fine though, we all get the same player pool and salary cap to work with.

We’ll kick things off with Ian Kennedy against the Twins. Kennedy has a 21.8% K rate, 10.6% BB rate and 35.8% hard contact this season. He doesn’t get nearly enough ground balls to really feel safe here. He’s also taking on a Twins offense that leads the league in BB rate against RH pitching at 11% with a K rate of just 21%.

Quick Breakdown: – Kennedy is close to being a pitcher that we can use but a 49.5% fly ball rate coupled with 35.8% hard contact means we would be taking on considerable risk. Kennedy is a fringe SP2 on multi-pitcher sites.

Adalberto Mejia
adalberto-mejia-300x200 FanDuel DraftKings FantasyDraft
Salary: $5,500 Salary: $6,000 Salary: $12,000
Salary Rank: 29 of 30 Salary Rank: 25 of 30 Salary Rank: 24 of 30
Stats Starts SIERA ERA K% BB% GB% HC% SC%
2016 0 7.02 7.71 0.0% 7.7% 33.3% 41.7% 8.3%
2017 3 5.52 5.79 21.7% 17.4% 37.0% 25.9% 33.3%

We don’t have much of a major league sample to work with regarding Adalberto Mejia. What we do have does not look great though. In three starts this year he’s walking 17.4% of batters with a K rate of just 21.4%. The Royals are one of the worst offenses in the league against LH pitching with a .265 wOBA and a 61 wRC+. That said, they really don’t strikeout all that much with a 19.5% K rate.

Quick Breakdown: – Even though the Royals lack firepower, the walks are concerning enough that we can safely avoid Adalberto Mejia today.

Batter Grind Down

Kansas City

So far this season, Adalberto Mejia has faced 46 RH batters and zero LH batters. That somewhat skews the chart above. Even if we look at career numbers (two years) Mejia has only faced two LH batters. What we do know is that Meija is allowing plenty of fly balls at 48% this season. Any of the Royals that have decent power are playable. In fact, some of the cheaper options could work as well if you simply want to snag a walk or two and maybe a run scored. Lorenzo Cain (.375 wOBA vs. LH), Jorge Soler (.355 wOBA vs. LH), and Whit Merrifield (.377 wOBA vs. LH) are the most interesting options.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. LH Pitching)

# Player Bats wOBA xwOBA ISO HC% BB% K% GB% FD Pos. FD Sal. DK Pos. DK Sal. FDRFT Pos. FDRFT Sal.
1 Alcides Escobar RIGHT 0.254 0.261 0.097 26.1% 4.0% 13.4% 51.6% SS $2,200 SS $2,900 SS $5,600
2 Mike Moustakas LEFT 0.250 0.285 0.167 33.3% 1.8% 21.8% 47.6% 3B $3,700 3B $3,800 3B $7,500
3 Lorenzo Cain RIGHT 0.375 0.365 0.187 29.9% 12.0% 12.7% 38.3% OF $3,200 OF $3,900 CF $7,600
4 Eric Hosmer LEFT 0.284 0.306 0.141 29.2% 5.6% 19.9% 61.4% 1B $3,300 1B $3,800 1B $7,600
5 Salvador Perez RIGHT 0.292 0.293 0.184 31.5% 5.6% 21.8% 31.5% C $3,100 C $3,600 C $7,200
6 Jorge Bonifacio RIGHT 0.211 0.316 0.000 23.1% 5.0% 30.0% 38.5% OF $2,400 OF $3,200 RF $6,400
7 Jorge Soler RIGHT 0.355 0.366 0.214 35.5% 10.4% 22.9% 37.1% OF $2,700 OF $3,600 RF $7,200
8 Alex Gordon LEFT 0.280 0.314 0.113 32.2% 10.2% 27.2% 46.3% OF $2,600 OF $3,200 LF $6,400
9 Whit Merrifield RIGHT 0.377 0.336 0.140 46.2% 9.0% 20.7% 44.7% 2B $2,700 2B $3,800 IF/OF $7,500

Elite Plays – Lorenzo Cain

Secondary Plays – Jorge Soler and Whit Merrifield

Stackability – YELLOW – A viable mini-stack in cash games and full stack in GPPs.

Minnesota

Ian Kennedy is one of the better pitchers on the early slate in terms of real life talent. The best strategy here is to try and find a home run with Kennedy’s elevated hard hit rate and fly ball rate. I suppose that would lead us to Miguel Sano here. He has a .353 wOBA vs. RH pitching and a 43.3% hard contact rate. Even Brian Dozier and Max Kepler hit RH pitching well with quite a bit of hard contact. That’s about as far as I would go here though.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

# Player Bats wOBA xwOBA ISO HC% BB% K% GB% FD Pos. FD Sal. DK Pos. DK Sal. FDRFT Pos. FDRFT Sal.
1 Brian Dozier RIGHT 0.356 0.326 0.247 32.6% 9.3% 19.5% 39.1% 2B $3,700 2B $4,600 2B $8,800
2 Joe Mauer LEFT 0.338 0.389 0.133 33.5% 13.8% 14.5% 47.5% 1B $2,800 1B $3,800 1B $7,500
3 Miguel Sano RIGHT 0.353 0.351 0.245 43.3% 12.2% 36.7% 33.1% 3B $3,800 3B $4,800 IF/OF $9,200
4 Kennys Vargas SWITCH 0.318 0.293 0.252 33.7% 11.1% 34.0% 33.7% 1B $2,700 1B $3,800 1B $7,600
5 Max Kepler LEFT 0.342 0.320 0.210 34.9% 10.8% 18.9% 43.8% OF $2,900 OF $3,900 RF $7,800
6 Jorge Polanco SWITCH 0.311 0.305 0.116 23.7% 7.9% 12.6% 35.2% SS $2,900 SS $3,600 SS $7,200
7 Chris Gimenez RIGHT 0.253 0.261 0.083 30.8% 7.4% 24.4% 47.1% C $2,000 C $2,900 C $5,700
8 Eddie Rosario LEFT 0.316 0.283 0.185 32.3% 3.4% 23.4% 45.1% OF $2,600 OF $3,400 LF $6,800
9 Byron Buxton RIGHT 0.285 0.235 0.176 23.2% 6.0% 36.2% 36.2% OF $2,900 OF $3,600 CF $7,200

Elite Plays – Miguel Sano

Secondary Plays – Brian Dozier and Max Kepler

Stackability – ORANGE – A viable stack in large field GPPs.

Milwaukee at Chicago Cubs – 2:20 PM ET

Milwaukee Chicago Cubs
milwaukeemlb Chase Anderson cubsmlb Jake Arrieta
RIGHT RIGHT
Vegas Moneyline Vegas Over/Under
CHC-200 7.5
Stats wOBA xwOBA HC% BB% K% GB% Stats wOBA xwOBA HC% BB% K% GB%
SP vs. Left (2016-17) 0.300 0.310 34.5% 8.3% 19.8% 33.2% SP vs. Left (2016-17) 0.295 0.327 29.3% 13.1% 24.3% 47.9%
SP vs. Right (2016-17) 0.376 0.352 38.2% 8.2% 18.4% 37.9% SP vs. Right (2016-17) 0.267 0.266 24.5% 5.4% 24.0% 51.8%

Pitcher Grind Down

Chase Anderson
chase-anderson-300x200 FanDuel DraftKings FantasyDraft
Salary: $7,800 Salary: $6,400 Salary: $12,600
Salary Rank: 13 of 30 Salary Rank: 22 of 30 Salary Rank: 23 of 30
Stats Starts SIERA ERA K% BB% GB% HC% SC%
2016 30 4.68 4.39 18.6% 8.2% 36.1% 36.6% 17.2%
2017 8 4.40 3.43 20.4% 8.4% 35.4% 37.0% 17.0%

With greater than an 80% chance of rain, this game is a candidate to get rained out. It’s highly unlikely that we’ll get a large enough window to target pitchers here but I’ll go ahead and break down these two pitchers in case you want to take the risk. Chase Anderson doesn’t offer nearly enough upside to fire him up against one of the best offenses in baseball. He has a 20.4% K rate and 35.4% hard contact rate. His .376 wOBA against RH hitters is especially concerning.

Quick Breakdown: – The combination of a possible rain out and tough matchup make Chase Anderson any easy name to cross off the list today.

Jake Arrieta
jake-arrieta-300x200 FanDuel DraftKings FantasyDraft
Salary: $9,700 Salary: $9,400 Salary: $18,000
Salary Rank: 2 of 30 Salary Rank: 6 of 30 Salary Rank: 6 of 30
Stats Starts SIERA ERA K% BB% GB% HC% SC%
2016 31 3.94 3.10 23.9% 9.6% 52.6% 25.2% 22.9%
2017 8 3.60 5.44 25.0% 6.6% 40.2% 31.8% 23.5%

Jake Arrieta really hasn’t been himself this season. He has a 5.44 ERA right now and seems to have forgotten how to generate ground balls. With ground balls down to 40% this season, we’ve seen fly balls increase to 37.9% and hard contact up to 31.8%. This is still a matchup with the Brewers though who own a 24.2% K rate against RH pitching. Maybe mother nature is doing us a favor here. I would certainly have some interest in Arrieta in tournaments if Kevin Roth gives us a green light for pitchers.

Quick Breakdown: – Arrieta is a viable tournament option today given the Brewers aptitude for striking out. That said, weather concerns end up bumping Arrieta pretty far down the list.

Batter Grind Down

Milwaukee

Even though Arrieta has struggled this year, targeting him with Brewers bats is not a smart strategy. If you insist on going here , LH batters have traditionally done the most damage against Arrieta. They have a 13.1% walk rate but still own a lowly .295 wOBA. Eric Thames would be the ideal option with his .426 wOBA vs. RH but we’re not getting any kind of discount.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

# Player Bats wOBA xwOBA ISO HC% BB% K% GB% FD Pos. FD Sal. DK Pos. DK Sal. FDRFT Pos. FDRFT Sal.
1 Jonathan Villar SWITCH 0.329 0.303 0.142 35.4% 10.9% 26.0% 60.6% 2B $2,800 2B $3,900 2B $7,600
2 Eric Thames LEFT 0.426 0.367 0.323 45.7% 15.5% 22.4% 39.1% 1B $3,600 1B $4,500 1B $8,700
3 Hernan Perez RIGHT 0.317 0.293 0.160 30.6% 5.1% 19.2% 48.4% OF $2,800 3B/OF $3,600 IF/OF $7,200
4 Travis Shaw LEFT 0.333 0.334 0.199 35.6% 8.4% 23.0% 38.4% 3B $3,500 3B $4,000 3B $7,800
5 Domingo Santana RIGHT 0.336 0.338 0.181 34.9% 10.8% 31.9% 46.4% OF $2,900 OF $3,400 RF $6,800
6 Manny Pina RIGHT 0.369 0.334 0.221 27.5% 7.7% 15.4% 31.6% C $2,700 C $2,700 C $5,200
7 Keon Broxton RIGHT 0.323 0.293 0.179 38.4% 10.7% 36.4% 43.0% OF $3,000 OF $3,500 CF $6,800
8 Orlando Arcia RIGHT 0.256 0.244 0.138 25.8% 5.4% 21.8% 53.4% SS $2,500 SS $2,800 SS $5,400
9 Chase Anderson RIGHT 0.097 0.117 0.000 17.9% 0.0% 49.1% 68.2% P $7,800 P $6,400 P $12,600

Elite Plays – None

Secondary Plays – None

Stackability – RED – Not a recommended stack for cash games or GPPs.

Chicago Cubs

As long as there is a large enough window to get the game in, the Cubs hitters are in a good spot today. Chase Anderson has a .346 wOBA vs RH and .326 wOBA vs. LH this season. Left-handed hitters also have a 45% fly ball rate and 43% hard contact rate. We should be able to target Cubs from either side of the plate here. Kyle Schwarber has struggled this season with a .299 wOBA vs. RH but his xwOBA of .368 says he’s been getting a little bit unlucky. Assuming that Ian Happ makes the lineup again today he’s a strong option. So is Kris Bryant, “(player-popup), Anthony Rizzo, Ben Zobrist and just about any other Cub that make the lineup. A full stack is definitely in play here but just be sure to check the weather.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

# Player Bats wOBA xwOBA ISO HC% BB% K% GB% FD Pos. FD Sal. DK Pos. DK Sal. FDRFT Pos. FDRFT Sal.
1 Kyle Schwarber LEFT 0.299 0.368 0.188 35.4% 13.0% 25.2% 44.9% OF $3,400 OF $4,300 IF/OF $8,400
2 Kris Bryant RIGHT 0.378 0.351 0.230 37.6% 10.0% 22.9% 31.3% 3B $4,300 3B $5,400 IF/OF $10,400
3 Anthony Rizzo LEFT 0.389 0.377 0.254 36.8% 11.9% 16.7% 36.8% 1B $4,200 1B $5,000 1B $9,600
4 Ben Zobrist SWITCH 0.351 0.362 0.170 32.8% 15.6% 12.0% 46.8% OF $3,000 2B/OF $3,900 IF/OF $7,600
5 Addison Russell RIGHT 0.301 0.298 0.150 27.1% 7.6% 21.5% 42.6% SS $3,200 SS $3,800 SS $7,500
6 Miguel Montero LEFT 0.319 0.311 0.175 31.9% 13.3% 21.4% 46.8% C $2,500 C $3,200 C $6,400
7 Jason Heyward LEFT 0.298 0.314 0.107 27.0% 8.7% 13.7% 46.6% OF $2,700 OF $3,400 RF $6,800
8 Jake Arrieta RIGHT 0.250 0.263 0.153 35.3% 3.3% 41.0% 39.4% P $9,700 P $9,400 P $18,000
9 Javier Baez RIGHT 0.301 0.265 0.164 28.6% 1.5% 26.0% 44.8% 2B $2,800 2B/SS $4,000 2B $7,800

Elite Plays – Kyle Schwarber and Kris Bryant

Secondary Plays – Anthony Rizzo, Ben Zobrist and Ian Happ

Stackability – GREEN – A viable full stack in cash games and GPPs.

Boston at Oakland – 4:05 PM ET

Boston Oakland
bostonmlb Drew Pomeranz oaklandmlb Sean Manaea
LEFT LEFT
Vegas Moneyline Vegas Over/Under
OAK-105 8.5
Stats wOBA xwOBA HC% BB% K% GB% Stats wOBA xwOBA HC% BB% K% GB%
SP vs. Left (2016-17) 0.317 0.298 34.2% 9.8% 24.0% 42.0% SP vs. Left (2016-17) 0.224 0.271 29.4% 5.2% 25.0% 56.7%
SP vs. Right (2016-17) 0.290 0.284 31.3% 9.1% 27.2% 46.1% SP vs. Right (2016-17) 0.321 0.331 34.5% 8.0% 21.2% 44.5%

Pitcher Grind Down

Drew Pomeranz
drew-pomeranz-300x200 FanDuel DraftKings FantasyDraft
Salary: $8,000 Salary: $8,300 Salary: $16,000
Salary Rank: 10 of 30 Salary Rank: 11 of 30 Salary Rank: 11 of 30
Stats Starts SIERA ERA K% BB% GB% HC% SC%
2016 30 3.80 3.32 26.5% 9.3% 46.2% 31.5% 19.1%
2017 7 3.82 5.29 26.0% 9.3% 39.6% 35.1% 23.7%

Drew Pomeranz is probably our best SP2 option today (and even a possible GPP option on FD). Pomeranz has elite strikeout stuff at 26%. His ERA of 5.29 isn’t elite even though he’s been a little unlucky. The Athletics are one of the worst offenses against LH pitching with a 24.7% K rate, .299 wOBA and and 91 wRC+. The concern with Pomeranz is whether or not he’ll be able to last deep into the game. He’s made it to the sixth inning in just two of seven starts this season. That makes getting a QS on FD a bit risky but we’ll live with the strikeout upside on multi-pitcher sites as an SP2.

Quick Breakdown: – There are red flags with just about any SP2 option today. Considering the matchup with Oakand, Pomeranz is one of the safer ways to go.

Sean Manaea
sean-manaea-300x200 FanDuel DraftKings FantasyDraft
Salary: $7,300 Salary: $8,000 Salary: $15,600
Salary Rank: 19 of 30 Salary Rank: 13 of 30 Salary Rank: 13 of 30
Stats Starts SIERA ERA K% BB% GB% HC% SC%
2016 24 4.04 3.86 20.9% 6.2% 44.2% 33.6% 18.4%
2017 6 4.06 5.52 26.8% 13.4% 62.0% 33.3% 23.6%

Sean Manaea is interesting today. His K rate is up to 26.8% this season after posting a 20% rate last year. That’s backed by a SwStr% of 14.8%. Sadly, Manaea faces a Red Sox team that is last in the league in K% vs. LH pitching at 14.5%. I’m personally not a believer in Manaea’s increased strikeout ability though and there’s nothing about this matchup that makes me want to take the risk.

Quick Breakdown: – This is a good spot to take the wait-and-see approach with Maneae. If he can get through this matchup cleanly we’ll add him to the list of possible options in the future when he has a better matchup.

Batter Grind Down

Maneae has shown pretty drastic splits this season with a .197 wOBA to LH hitters and .311 to RH. His career numbers aren’t that drastic but do show the same trend. Red Sox RH batters are firmly in play here. That starts with Dustin Pedroia, Xander Bogaerts, and Hanley Ramirez. You could certainly even get away with Mookie Betts.

Boston

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. LH Pitching)

# Player Bats wOBA xwOBA ISO HC% BB% K% GB% FD Pos. FD Sal. DK Pos. DK Sal. FDRFT Pos. FDRFT Sal.
1 Mookie Betts RIGHT 0.340 0.340 0.248 34.6% 5.6% 9.4% 38.5% OF $4,400 OF $5,200 RF $10,200
2 Dustin Pedroia RIGHT 0.354 0.351 0.104 31.6% 14.5% 11.9% 41.4% 2B $3,400 2B $3,700 2B $7,200
3 Xander Bogaerts RIGHT 0.374 0.346 0.159 34.5% 11.4% 16.3% 44.5% SS $3,700 SS $4,100 SS $8,000
4 Andrew Benintendi LEFT 0.254 0.234 0.019 25.0% 11.1% 25.4% 52.6% OF $3,500 OF $3,700 LF $7,200
5 Hanley Ramirez RIGHT 0.433 0.405 0.300 38.4% 11.9% 17.5% 42.0% 1B $3,100 1B $4,100 IF/OF $8,000
6 Mitch Moreland LEFT 0.346 0.349 0.181 38.1% 8.6% 25.0% 50.0% 1B $3,200 1B $3,500 1B $6,900
7 Chris Young RIGHT 0.382 0.337 0.217 33.8% 11.4% 20.0% 22.5% P $5,500 P $5,000 P $9,900
8 Christian Vazquez RIGHT 0.332 0.344 0.146 20.6% 10.9% 15.2% 47.1% C $2,300 C $2,600 C $5,100
9 Deven Marrero RIGHT 0.201 0.311 0.077 25.0% 7.1% 35.7% 37.5% SS $2,000 3B $2,300 3B $4,400

Elite Plays – Dustin Pedroia and Xander Bogaerts

Secondary Plays – Mookie Betts and Hanley Ramirez

Stackability – YELLOW – A viable mini-stack in cash games and full stack in GPPs.

Oakland

I’m not going out of my way to pick on Drew Pomeranz today (since I’m probably using him). In his career, Pomeranz has a .320 wOBA vs RH and .265 to LH batters. This season, Pomeranz has oddly displayed reverse splits but that could just be noise with a small sample. He’s allowing a .492 wOBA to LH batters (only faced 36). Khris Davis and Ryon Healy both hit LH pitching well though I find myself unlikely to go here.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. LH Pitching)

# Player Bats wOBA xwOBA ISO HC% BB% K% GB% FD Pos. FD Sal. DK Pos. DK Sal. FDRFT Pos. FDRFT Sal.
1 Rajai Davis RIGHT 0.282 0.274 0.130 25.5% 7.5% 22.6% 40.0% OF $3,000 OF $3,500 CF $6,800
2 Jed Lowrie SWITCH 0.291 0.328 0.035 27.7% 7.3% 16.3% 41.5% 2B $2,300 2B $3,500 2B $6,800
3 Khris Davis RIGHT 0.355 0.406 0.259 40.0% 9.9% 26.0% 41.7% OF $3,300 OF $3,900 LF $7,600
4 Ryon Healy RIGHT 0.419 0.372 0.284 36.6% 3.8% 18.9% 37.8% 1B $3,000 1B/3B $3,300 3B $6,600
5 Trevor Plouffe RIGHT 0.324 0.332 0.164 39.0% 8.9% 24.2% 50.0% 3B $2,900 3B $3,600 3B $7,200
6 Mark Canha RIGHT 0.266 0.273 0.294 27.3% 0.0% 35.3% 36.4% OF $2,300 OF $3,000 IF/OF $6,000
7 Chad Pinder RIGHT 0.309 0.310 0.178 48.5% 2.2% 26.1% 42.4% 2B $2,600 2B/SS $2,200 2B $4,000
8 Adam Rosales RIGHT 0.362 0.311 0.242 39.2% 13.6% 36.1% 35.6% 2B $2,800 SS $2,300 3B $4,400
9 Josh Phegley RIGHT 0.261 0.343 0.123 38.8% 4.9% 13.1% 40.8% C $2,400 C $2,900 C $5,700

Elite Plays – None

Secondary Plays – Khris Davis and Ryon Healy

Stackability – ORANGE – A viable stack in large field GPPs.

Philadelphia at Pittsburgh – 4:05 PM ET

Philadelphia Pittsburgh
philadelphiamlb Vince Velasquez pittsburghmlb Ivan Nova
RIGHT RIGHT
Vegas Moneyline Vegas Over/Under
PIT-125 8.5
Stats wOBA xwOBA HC% BB% K% GB% Stats wOBA xwOBA HC% BB% K% GB%
SP vs. Left (2016-17) 0.347 0.331 32.9% 10.6% 25.4% 37.5% SP vs. Left (2016-17) 0.351 0.367 37.1% 3.5% 12.3% 45.7%
SP vs. Right (2016-17) 0.316 0.309 33.2% 7.0% 27.9% 36.4% SP vs. Right (2016-17) 0.293 0.286 31.0% 3.6% 22.2% 58.6%

Pitcher Grind Down

Vince Velasquez
vincent-velasquez-300x200 FanDuel DraftKings FantasyDraft
Salary: $7,900 Salary: $9,200 Salary: $17,600
Salary Rank: 12 of 30 Salary Rank: 7 of 30 Salary Rank: 7 of 30
Stats Starts SIERA ERA K% BB% GB% HC% SC%
2016 24 3.62 4.12 27.6% 8.2% 34.8% 32.6% 18.4%
2017 7 4.25 5.63 23.5% 10.8% 43.9% 34.6% 14.0%

Vince Velasquez is a tough pitcher to break down. Velasquez’ K rate is down to 23.5% this season however his SwStr% is holding steady 10.2%. The big concern here is Velasquez still has a 10.8% BB rate. The Pirates are not a terrible matchup for RH pitchers as they own 78 wRC+ and a .278 wOBA however they own a K rate of just 18.1% which is second to last. That puts Velasquez in an odd spot. There’s not enough strikeout upside to comfortably roll him out but we also don’t necessarily want to stack Pirates against him either.

Quick Breakdown: – You could possibly get away with Velasquez as an SP2 however you’re paying for the strikeout upside with the matchup negates it. The increased walks this season are also concerning enough to make me look elsewhere.

Ivan Nova
ivan-nova-300x200 FanDuel DraftKings FantasyDraft
Salary: $8,500 Salary: $8,700 Salary: $16,800
Salary Rank: 8 of 30 Salary Rank: 9 of 30 Salary Rank: 9 of 30
Stats Starts SIERA ERA K% BB% GB% HC% SC%
2016 26 3.76 4.17 18.6% 4.1% 53.6% 34.4% 18.5%
2017 8 3.98 2.48 15.4% 1.9% 49.1% 32.4% 15.3%

Ivan Nova takes on a Phillies offense that owns a K rate of 22.2% (9th) against RH pitching. Based on wOBA (.322) and wRC+ (99) this is an otherwise average offense. Nova doesn’t have much strikeout upside as his 15.4% K rate is close to his career average of 17.3. He does have excellent control with a 1.9% BB rate and 49.1% ground ball rate.

Quick Breakdown: – If you are looking for a “safe” SP2, Ivan Nova is your man. He’s a safe bet to pitch deep into this game and the Phillies seem unlikely to do much damage. The only downside is that the strikeouts won’t be here if Nova does let a few runs across.

Batter Grind Down

Philadelphia

If you want to target Phillies here, LH batters are preferred as they own a 44.3% GB rate and 35.9% hard hit rate this season. I suppose that would lead to Tommy Joseph (.324 wOBA vs. RH) or Cesar Hernandez. You could also take a chance on someone like Odubel Herrera though I’ll honestly just be using Philly bats to fill in as needed.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

# Player Bats wOBA xwOBA ISO HC% BB% K% GB% FD Pos. FD Sal. DK Pos. DK Sal. FDRFT Pos. FDRFT Sal.
1 Cesar Hernandez SWITCH 0.339 0.310 0.113 25.9% 11.2% 19.0% 52.8% 2B $3,000 2B $3,900 2B $7,600
2 Odubel Herrera LEFT 0.341 0.305 0.152 28.2% 9.0% 20.9% 43.3% OF $2,900 OF $3,600 IF/OF $7,200
3 Aaron Altherr RIGHT 0.308 0.299 0.151 32.6% 10.4% 31.9% 50.0% OF $3,700 OF $4,300 LF $8,400
4 Tommy Joseph RIGHT 0.324 0.321 0.205 36.8% 5.7% 23.2% 41.1% 1B $3,700 1B $4,200 1B $8,100
5 Michael Saunders LEFT 0.326 0.327 0.189 38.0% 10.4% 26.7% 38.9% OF $2,800 OF $3,900 RF $7,600
6 Maikel Franco RIGHT 0.296 0.323 0.155 29.4% 6.8% 16.2% 44.4% 3B $3,400 3B $4,000 3B $7,600
7 Cameron Rupp RIGHT 0.306 0.321 0.174 33.0% 6.7% 28.4% 46.6% C $2,700 C $3,200 C $6,300
8 Freddy Galvis SWITCH 0.306 0.274 0.178 27.8% 5.2% 21.5% 40.3% SS $2,800 SS $3,200 SS $6,300
9 Vince Velasquez RIGHT 0.167 0.149 0.000 6.7% 2.3% 29.5% 61.5% P $7,900 P $9,200 P $17,600

Elite Plays – None

Secondary Plays – Tommy Joseph

Stackability – ORANGE – A viable stack in large field GPPs.

Pittsburgh

As I mentioned above, Vince Velasquez isn’t someone we are going out of our way to target today. In his career he does own a .332 wOBA vs LH and .323 wOBA vs. RH batters. This season, the splits are .396 to LH and .297 to RH batters. Velasquez is however getting tagged by RH batters for a 41.1% fly ball rate and 37.5% hard contact rate. We can pick and choose a couple of Pirates bats here staring with Josh Bell (.352 wOBA vs. RH). The rest of the Pirates such as Andrew McCutchen, John Jaso and Adam Frazier can be used as value plays where needed.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

# Player Bats wOBA xwOBA ISO HC% BB% K% GB% FD Pos. FD Sal. DK Pos. DK Sal. FDRFT Pos. FDRFT Sal.
1 Adam Frazier LEFT 0.332 0.335 0.138 31.9% 7.4% 15.8% 42.4% OF $3,100 2B/OF $3,500 IF/OF $6,800
2 Josh Harrison RIGHT 0.299 0.273 0.105 27.1% 3.6% 14.7% 43.9% 3B $2,900 2B/3B $3,700 2B $7,200
3 Andrew McCutchen RIGHT 0.311 0.330 0.158 34.8% 9.3% 21.4% 36.6% OF $3,300 OF $4,100 RF $8,000
4 Josh Bell SWITCH 0.352 0.353 0.171 31.7% 12.9% 16.5% 50.0% 1B $3,000 1B $4,000 IF/OF $7,800
5 John Jaso LEFT 0.335 0.334 0.155 31.1% 10.4% 17.2% 48.5% 1B $2,600 1B/OF $2,900 1B $5,700
6 David Freese RIGHT 0.321 0.324 0.133 32.6% 8.7% 27.6% 58.9% 3B $2,400 3B $3,400 3B $6,800
7 Jordy Mercer RIGHT 0.286 0.295 0.091 25.4% 8.7% 14.4% 49.5% SS $2,400 SS $2,900 SS $5,600
8 Francisco Cervelli RIGHT 0.307 0.319 0.099 28.0% 12.7% 19.1% 53.4% C $2,900 C $3,100 C $6,000
9 Ivan Nova RIGHT 0.082 0.061 0.000 0.0% 0.0% 64.9% 42.9% P $8,500 P $8,700 P $16,800

Elite Plays – Josh Bell

Secondary Plays – Andrew McCutchen and Adam Frazier

Stackability – YELLOW – A viable mini-stack in cash games and full stack in GPPs.

Washington at Atlanta – 4:10 PM ET

Washington Atlanta
washingtonmlb Max Scherzer atlantamlb Bartolo Colon
RIGHT RIGHT
Vegas Moneyline Vegas Over/Under
WAS-170 9.0
Stats wOBA xwOBA HC% BB% K% GB% Stats wOBA xwOBA HC% BB% K% GB%
SP vs. Left (2016-17) 0.324 0.297 29.6% 9.0% 25.0% 32.3% SP vs. Left (2016-17) 0.339 0.347 37.0% 5.6% 15.6% 36.1%
SP vs. Right (2016-17) 0.202 0.223 28.5% 3.2% 39.0% 33.8% SP vs. Right (2016-17) 0.307 0.303 34.4% 3.1% 16.0% 48.3%

Pitcher Grind Down

Max Scherzer
max-scherzer-300x200 FanDuel DraftKings FantasyDraft
Salary: $11,600 Salary: $12,600 Salary: $24,600
Salary Rank: 1 of 30 Salary Rank: 1 of 30 Salary Rank: 1 of 30
Stats Starts SIERA ERA K% BB% GB% HC% SC%
2016 34 3.05 2.96 31.5% 6.2% 33.0% 30.1% 22.2%
2017 8 2.84 2.80 32.6% 6.1% 33.1% 24.8% 20.9%

Max Scherzer stands head and shoulders above the rest of the pitching options today, especially against a Braves offense that is without Freddie Freeman. On the season, Freeman accounted for roughly 17% of the Braves offense. Scherzer has a ridiculous 32.6% K rate to go with a 6.1% BB rate. The Braves check in at 20.4% K rate against RH pitching but that doesn’t matter with an elite strikeout arm like Scherzer.

Quick Breakdown: – Scherzer will easily be the highest-owned pitcher in both cash games and tournaments. He’s a tough fade though as he stands head and shoulders above the rest of the options.

Bartolo Colon
bartolo-colon-300x200 FanDuel DraftKings FantasyDraft
Salary: $6,600 Salary: $5,900 Salary: $11,600
Salary Rank: 25 of 30 Salary Rank: 26 of 30 Salary Rank: 27 of 30
Stats Starts SIERA ERA K% BB% GB% HC% SC%
2016 33 4.37 3.43 16.2% 4.1% 43.2% 35.4% 16.2%
2017 8 4.89 6.80 14.2% 5.8% 37.8% 37.1% 20.5%

Bartolo Colon just keeps grinding along, even at 43 years old. Colon only throws three pitches with the bulk (83%) being fastballs. He owns a 14.2% K rate on the season and 6.8 ERA. In terms of wOBA (.347) and wRC+ (111) the Nationals are a top five offense. We obviously aren’t using Colon in this spot but we can stack up some Nationals batters.

Quick Breakdown: – There are certainly better options than Bartolo Colon in a tough matchup.

Batter Grind Down

Washington

The Nationals have the highest implied team total on the early slate. Bartolo Colon owns a .339 wOBA vs. LH and .307 wOBA vs. RH over the past two seasons. They won’t come cheap but we’ll want some Nationals exposure. That starts with Trea Turner who is way under-priced on FD at $3,600. He owns a .388 wOBA vs. RH pitching. Obviously, I don’t need to tell you that Bryce Harper and Daniel Murphy are firmly in play if you can fit them. A full Nationals stack is also an option as Colon’s numbers to either side of the plate shouldn’t scare us off anyone.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

# Player Bats wOBA xwOBA ISO HC% BB% K% GB% FD Pos. FD Sal. DK Pos. DK Sal. FDRFT Pos. FDRFT Sal.
1 Trea Turner RIGHT 0.388 0.339 0.249 33.3% 4.7% 19.8% 42.6% SS $3,600 SS $5,000 IF/OF $9,600
2 Jayson Werth RIGHT 0.313 0.320 0.146 32.5% 11.2% 24.6% 41.7% OF $3,500 OF $4,400 LF $8,700
3 Bryce Harper LEFT 0.387 0.397 0.242 35.5% 19.0% 15.6% 39.4% OF $4,800 OF $5,500 RF $10,800
4 Ryan Zimmerman RIGHT 0.327 0.337 0.196 36.1% 5.5% 22.8% 45.4% 1B $3,800 1B $4,800 1B $9,300
5 Daniel Murphy LEFT 0.412 0.399 0.249 38.9% 7.0% 9.4% 35.3% 2B $3,900 2B $4,800 2B $9,200
6 Anthony Rendon RIGHT 0.338 0.344 0.180 35.0% 8.9% 18.5% 37.7% 3B $3,300 3B $4,100 3B $8,000
7 Matt Wieters SWITCH 0.313 0.323 0.169 33.1% 7.0% 18.0% 37.3% C $2,800 C $3,500 C $6,900
8 Michael Taylor RIGHT 0.274 0.265 0.141 31.2% 5.5% 31.4% 43.7% OF $3,000 OF $3,900 CF $7,600
9 Max Scherzer RIGHT 0.187 0.161 0.014 23.7% 2.3% 30.7% 73.9% P $11,600 P $12,600 P $24,600

Elite Plays – Trea Turner, Bryce Harper and Daniel Murphy

Secondary Plays – Ryan Zimmerman and Jayson Werth

Stackability – GREEN – A viable full stack in cash games and GPPs.

Atlanta

We don’t need to waste any time here. The Braves are without Freddie Freeman and facing Max Scherzer. Obviously, we aren’t predicting a no-hitter for Scherzer but it’s hard to accurate predict which Brave might get a hit. Even in tournaments, I’ll be staying away from the Braves.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

# Player Bats wOBA xwOBA ISO HC% BB% K% GB% FD Pos. FD Sal. DK Pos. DK Sal. FDRFT Pos. FDRFT Sal.
1 Ender Inciarte LEFT 0.315 0.293 0.115 27.0% 8.6% 14.0% 44.0% OF $2,700 OF $3,700 CF $7,200
2 Brandon Phillips RIGHT 0.325 0.302 0.122 28.5% 3.0% 12.0% 47.7% 2B $2,300 2B $3,600 2B $7,200
3 Matt Kemp RIGHT 0.336 0.351 0.220 36.7% 5.2% 23.8% 39.8% OF $3,400 OF $4,100 LF $8,100
4 Nick Markakis LEFT 0.344 0.365 0.143 33.6% 11.9% 16.6% 40.9% OF $2,900 OF $3,600 RF $7,200
5 Tyler Flowers RIGHT 0.362 0.347 0.132 41.8% 8.9% 26.2% 44.0% C $2,500 C $3,100 C $6,000
6 Jace Peterson LEFT 0.320 0.332 0.122 25.5% 13.3% 17.0% 58.0% 2B $2,300 2B/OF $3,100 2B $6,000
7 Dansby Swanson RIGHT 0.272 0.288 0.086 31.1% 9.6% 26.0% 45.6% SS $2,400 SS $2,900 SS $5,600
8 Rio Ruiz LEFT 0.350 0.410 0.286 60.0% 0.0% 28.6% 20.0% 1B $2,000 3B $2,600 3B $5,200
9 Bartolo Colon RIGHT 0.081 0.057 0.078 10.0% 0.0% 63.0% 53.8% P $6,600 P $5,900 P $11,600

Elite Plays – None

Secondary Plays – None

Stackability – RED – Not a recommended stack for cash games or GPPs.

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About the Author

sethayates
Seth Yates (sethayates)

Seth Yates hails from Dayton, Ohio. Seth started playing DFS during the NBA Playoffs in 2012. Seth rose to stardom in 2014 when he won the NFL Preseason Bomb using picks he blogged about. When he isn’t playing DFS, Seth is a Financial Analyst for the Air Force. Even though paying taxes on DFS isn’t fun, Seth re-invests your taxes back into DFS for you.