MLB Grind Down: Saturday, May 21st

by Ryan138 Last Updated 2016-05-22 02:22:58

The RotoGrinders MLB Grind Down will give you an in-depth analysis into the upcoming MLB schedule. This article will break down the numbers for every single game and give you analysis on which trends you can exploit. While matchups are a major factor in daily fantasy baseball, there are plenty of other factors to consider such as injuries, weather, and salaries.

The analysis should point you in the right direction, but it is still up to you to decipher the information and make your own selections. No sport has more variance than baseball. The best choice is not always the right choice but following the trends will win you money over time.

Note: As always, if you want to try a new DFS site, be sure to click through a RotoGrinders link and use our DraftKings promo code and FanDuel promo code to receive the best perks in the industry.

Kansas City at Chicago White Sox – 2:10 PM ET

Stats	wOBA	HR All.	K%	BB%	Stats	wOBA	HR All.	K%	BB%
Kansas City					Chicago White Sox
			Danny Duffy					Miguel Gonzalez
			LEFT					RIGHT
			Vegas Moneyline					Vegas Over/Under
			KC -110					9.0
SP vs. Left	0.246	0	25.7%	5.6%	SP vs. Left	0.360	15	16.8%	8.4%
SP vs. Right	0.341	16	17.2%	9.8%	SP vs. Right	0.334	11	17.6%	9.1%

Pitcher Grind Down

Statistics	Starts	SIERA	ERA	K%	BB%	SS%	GB%	FB%	HH%
Danny Duffy
				FanDuel			DraftKings
				Salary:		$6,800	Salary:		$5,500
				FPPG:		7.2	FPPG:		4.3
				Pitcher Rating:		45.9	Pitcher Rank:		23
L14 Days	1	2.24	0.00	37.5%	8.3%	24.7%	50.0%	41.7%	15.4%
2016	1	2.80	2.57	30.2%	8.1%	19.0%	40.4%	36.5%	24.5%
2015	24	4.63	4.08	17.4%	9.0%	8.4%	38.8%	36.5%	29.5%

Duffy is slated to make his second start of the season today. He will likely continue to be on a pitch count as evidenced by his last start where he was stopped at 48 pitches. With that said, he has pitched well this year as he comes into this game with a SIERA of 2.80 and a strikeout rate of 30.2%, but his upside is limited by the fact that he will not be pitching deep into the game today. He is very cheap, but basically needs a perfect start to reach value today.

Statistics	Starts	SIERA	ERA	K%	BB%	SS%	GB%	FB%	HH%
Miguel Gonzalez
				FanDuel			DraftKings
				Salary:		$6,500	Salary:		$5,900
				FPPG:		17.7	FPPG:		7.1
				Pitcher Rating:		34.6	Pitcher Rank:		30
L14 Days	2	6.65	3.48	10.4%	16.7%	12.3%	50.0%	38.2%	14.7%
2016	3	5.60	5.17	14.5%	13.2%	12.7%	46.3%	40.7%	25.9%
2015	26	4.51	4.91	17.5%	8.2%	8.9%	40.3%	35.8%	28.6%

Gonzalez is not someone we want to target for daily fantasy purposes. He comes into the game with a 5.80 SIERA and a very low 14.5% strikeout rate. The matchup is not as scary as in years past as the Royals are currently ranked 21st and 25th in team wOBA and ISO respectively against right handed pitching. Yet, he is still an easy pitcher to avoid with very little upside today.

Batter Grind Down

Kansas City

The Royals have the fifth highest total of the entire day and the fourth highest of the early slate today. Gonzalez is attackable from both sides of the plate as he has allowed a wOBA of +.353 to both lefties and righties. While the offense has struggled a bit this year, this may be a good time to play some of the Royals batters for cheap, especially at FD.

Royals Offense (2016)
Team wOBA vs. RHP — 0.306 (21 of 30)
Team ISO vs. RHP — 0.136 (25 of 30)
Team K% vs. RHP — 19.0% (7 of 30)
Runs Per Game — 3.60 (26 of 30)
Projected Run Total — 4.56 (5 of 30)

Projected Lineup

#	Player	Bats	wOBA vs. RHP	ISO vs. RHP	wOBA L14	FD Position	FD Salary	DK Position	DK Salary
1	Alcides Escobar	RIGHT	0.268	0.060	0.273	SS	$3,000	SS	$3,600
2	Lorenzo Cain	RIGHT	0.327	0.127	0.399	OF	$3,300	OF	$4,300
3	Eric Hosmer	LEFT	0.394	0.196	0.434	1B	$4,300	1B	$4,600
4	Kendrys Morales	SWITCH	0.342	0.221	0.284	1B	$2,700	1B	$3,400
5	Alex Gordon	LEFT	0.336	0.162	0.305	OF	$2,700	OF	$3,400
6	Cheslor Cuthbert	RIGHT	0.323	0.172	0.283	3B	$2,200	3B	$2,700
7	Christian Colon	RIGHT	0.306	0.057	0.305	2B	$2,300	2B/3B	$2,700
8	Drew Butera	RIGHT	0.242	0.088	0.000	C	$2,100	C	$2,100
9	Jarrod Dyson	LEFT	0.293	0.130	0.218	OF	$2,500	OF	$3,500
	Team Averages	—	0.315	0.135	0.278	—	—	—	—

Elite Plays – Lorenzo Cain, Eric Hosmer, Alex Gordon

Secondary Plays – Kendrys Morales, Alcides Escobar

Stackability – Cash & GPP

Chicago White Sox

Duffy has shut down lefties in a small sample size (.162 wOBA), while allowing a wOBA of .325 to right-handed bats. The White Sox actually have a 4.44 projected team run total which is the sixth highest of the day. Vegas expect a lot of runs to be scored today, which makes the offenses solid targets on both sides of the ball.

White Sox Offense (2016)
Team wOBA vs. LHP — 0.324 (10 of 30)
Team ISO vs. LHP — 0.150 (14 of 30)
Team K% vs. LHP — 22.0% (17 of 30)
Runs Per Game — 4.34 (13 of 30)
Projected Run Total — 4.44 (6 of 30)

Projected Lineup

#	Player	Bats	wOBA vs. LHP	ISO vs. LHP	wOBA L14	FD Position	FD Salary	DK Position	DK Salary
1	Adam Eaton	LEFT	0.317	0.069	0.443	OF	$4,100	OF	$3,900
2	Jimmy Rollins	SWITCH	0.376	0.160	0.311	SS	$3,200	SS	$4,300
3	Jose Abreu	RIGHT	0.286	0.126	0.310	1B	$3,900	1B	$4,300
4	Avisail Garcia	RIGHT	0.316	0.123	0.335	OF	$2,900	OF	$3,700
5	Melky Cabrera	SWITCH	0.269	0.100	0.339	OF	$2,900	OF	$4,100
6	Brett Lawrie	RIGHT	0.364	0.201	0.240	2B	$2,900	2B	$4,100
7	Austin Jackson	RIGHT	0.313	0.134	0.284	OF	$2,800	OF	$3,400
8	Dioner Navarro	SWITCH	0.336	0.230	0.392	C	$2,800	C	$3,600
9	Tyler Saladino	RIGHT	0.265	0.123	0.354	SS	$2,500	SS	$3,600
	Team Averages	—	0.316	0.141	0.334	—	—	—	—

Elite Plays – Jose Abreu, Brett Lawrie

Secondary Plays – Adam Eaton, Jimmy Rollins, Melky Cabrera, Avisail Garcia

Stackability – GPP

Toronto at Minnesota – 2:10 PM ET

Stats	wOBA	HR All.	K%	BB%	Stats	wOBA	HR All.	K%	BB%
Toronto					Minnesota
			J.A. Happ					Pat Dean
			LEFT					LEFT
			Vegas Moneyline					Vegas Over/Under
			TOR -145					9.0
SP vs. Left	0.289	2	24.4%	6.1%	SP vs. Left	0.648	0	0.0%	33.3%
SP vs. Right	0.314	20	18.4%	6.5%	SP vs. Right	0.402	1	20.0%	2.9%

Pitcher Grind Down

Statistics	Starts	SIERA	ERA	K%	BB%	SS%	GB%	FB%	HH%
J.A. Happ
				FanDuel			DraftKings
				Salary:		$8,400	Salary:		$8,100
				FPPG:		31.3	FPPG:		14.9
				Pitcher Rating:		61.1	Pitcher Rank:		10
L14 Days	3	4.29	4.58	16.4%	6.9%	8.3%	51.9%	31.5%	26.8%
2016	8	4.56	3.40	15.6%	6.8%	8.9%	43.1%	33.3%	30.1%
2015	31	3.82	3.61	21.1%	6.3%	8.1%	41.6%	34.1%	31.2%

Happ finally struggled in his last start against the Rays where he allowed eight earned runs in two innings. On the season, Happ sports a SIERA of 4.56 and continues to have a low strikeout rate of 15.6%. Happ will look to bounce back today against the Twins who are ranked 29th in both wOBA and ISO to left-handed bats. Happ is not the greatest target, but he could be used at this price due to a great matchup.

Statistics	Starts	SIERA	ERA	K%	BB%	SS%	GB%	FB%	HH%
Pat Dean
				FanDuel			DraftKings
				Salary:		$5,000	Salary:		$4,600
				FPPG:		16.5	FPPG:		7.2
				Pitcher Rating:		47.3	Pitcher Rank:		22
L14 Days	0	3.85	4.50	18.4%	5.3%	6.1%	37.9%	44.8%	41.4%
2016	0	3.85	4.50	18.4%	5.3%	6.1%	37.9%	44.8%	41.4%
2015

Pat Dean has made two appearances out of the bullpen this year and while his last appearance he pitched over five innings, he still allowed two earned runs and ten hits. He is an easy avoid as a lefty against an offense that can crush even an elite lefty arm. Avoid him today.

Batter Grind Down

Toronto

This Blue Jays offense is going to be licking it’s chops to get out there today as they get to face off against a young, inexperienced lefty arm. The Blue Jays have the second highest team total of the early slate and third highest of the entire day. They are a great early stack option today.

Blue Jays Offense (2016)
Team wOBA vs. LHP — 0.314 (14 of 30)
Team ISO vs. LHP — 0.139 (19 of 30)
Team K% vs. LHP — 21.9% (16 of 30)
Runs Per Game — 3.98 (22 of 30)
Projected Run Total — 4.76 (3 of 30)

Projected Lineup

#	Player	Bats	wOBA vs. LHP	ISO vs. LHP	wOBA L14	FD Position	FD Salary	DK Position	DK Salary
1	Jose Bautista	RIGHT	0.360	0.200	0.371	OF	$4,200	OF	$5,200
2	Josh Donaldson	RIGHT	0.443	0.335	0.217	3B	$3,700	3B	$5,500
3	Edwin Encarnacion	RIGHT	0.373	0.235	0.349	1B	$4,100	1B	$5,400
4	Justin Smoak	SWITCH	0.322	0.194	0.398	1B	$2,900	1B	$4,500
5	Michael Saunders	LEFT	0.401	0.244	0.376	OF	$3,500	OF	$4,600
6	Troy Tulowitzki	RIGHT	0.331	0.141	0.368	SS	$3,000	SS	$4,800
7	Jimmy Paredes	SWITCH	0.286	0.088	0.488	3B	$2,500	2B	$3,300
8	Russell Martin	RIGHT	0.360	0.180	0.162	C	$2,100	C	$4,100
9	Kevin Pillar	RIGHT	0.303	0.102	0.183	OF	$2,700	OF	$4,000
	Team Averages	—	0.353	0.191	0.324	—	—	—	—

Elite Plays – Jose Bautista, Josh Donaldson, Edwin Encarnacion, Troy Tulowitzki

Secondary Plays – Justin Smoak, Michael Saunders

Stackability – Cash & GPP

Minnesota

Happ has allowed a wOBA of .339 to right-handed bats this year, which puts some of the power righties of the Twins in play such as Sano, Plouffe and Park who all have wOBAs of over .344 against lefties. The Twins have a 4.24 team run total, which is the 11th highest of the entire day and tenth of the early slate.

Twins Offense (2016)
Team wOBA vs. LHP — 0.259 (29 of 30)
Team ISO vs. LHP — 0.077 (29 of 30)
Team K% vs. LHP — 24.9% (23 of 30)
Runs Per Game — 3.58 (27 of 30)
Projected Run Total — 4.24 (11 of 30)

Projected Lineup

#	Player	Bats	wOBA vs. LHP	ISO vs. LHP	wOBA L14	FD Position	FD Salary	DK Position	DK Salary
1	Eduardo Nunez	RIGHT	0.266	0.176	0.285	SS	$2,900	3B/SS	$3,200
2	Jorge Polanco	RIGHT	0.341	0.100	0.414	3B	$2,500	SS	$2,600
3	Miguel Sano	RIGHT	0.380	0.227	0.284	OF	$3,600	OF	$3,900
4	Trevor Plouffe	RIGHT	0.344	0.185	0.321	3B	$2,800	3B	$3,800
5	Byung Ho Park	RIGHT	0.351	0.182	0.305	1B	$3,400	1B	$3,800
6	Oswaldo Arcia	LEFT	0.287	0.000	0.196	OF	$2,500	OF	$3,100
7	Darin Mastroianni	RIGHT	0.000	0.000	0.000	OF	$2,200	OF	$2,000
8	Juan Centeno	LEFT	0.339	0.200	0.439	C	$2,400	C	$2,000
9	Eddie Rosario	LEFT	0.316	0.175	0.273	OF	$2,700	OF	$3,300
	Team Averages	—	0.292	0.138	0.280	—	—	—	—

Elite Plays – Miguel Sano, Byung Ho Park

Secondary Plays – Trevor Plouffe

Stackability – GPP

Atlanta at Philadelphia – 3:05 PM ET

Stats	wOBA	HR All.	K%	BB%	Stats	wOBA	HR All.	K%	BB%
Atlanta					Philadelphia
			Williams Perez					Adam Morgan
			RIGHT					LEFT
			Vegas Moneyline					Vegas Over/Under
			PHI -130					8.5
SP vs. Left	0.373	11	12.7%	10.2%	SP vs. Left	0.295	3	13.3%	7.1%
SP vs. Right	0.310	4	14.6%	9.3%	SP vs. Right	0.346	13	14.7%	5.0%

Pitcher Grind Down

Statistics	Starts	SIERA	ERA	K%	BB%	SS%	GB%	FB%	HH%
Williams Perez
				FanDuel			DraftKings
				Salary:		$6,300	Salary:		$5,700
				FPPG:		17.0	FPPG:		7.7
				Pitcher Rating:		36.3	Pitcher Rank:		28
L14 Days	2	3.87	4.50	11.1%	3.7%	7.2%	65.2%	26.1%	17.4%
2016	5	4.87	4.78	10.7%	8.9%	5.3%	61.6%	26.7%	23.6%
2015	20	4.87	4.78	14.2%	9.9%	6.1%	50.9%	28.8%	29.4%

Another poor pitching option that we have today is Perez. He comes into this game with an ERA of 4.78 (4.87 SIERA) and an extremely low strikeout rate of 10.7%. He has very little fantasy value today even in what is a solid matchup on paper against the Phillies who rank 28th in team wOBA and 27th in team ISO against right-handed pitching. Avoid him today.

Statistics	Starts	SIERA	ERA	K%	BB%	SS%	GB%	FB%	HH%
Adam Morgan
				FanDuel			DraftKings
				Salary:		$6,500	Salary:		$6,100
				FPPG:		17.8	FPPG:		7.6
				Pitcher Rating:		48.3	Pitcher Rank:		19
L14 Days	2	5.53	6.75	11.1%	8.9%	6.8%	37.1%	37.1%	25.0%
2016	4	4.76	6.41	16.3%	8.1%	10.5%	35.9%	39.1%	32.3%
2015	15	4.94	4.48	13.9%	4.8%	9.7%	30.6%	49.3%	29.8%

Morgan has been bad in his first four starts of the season. He comes into this game with an ERA of 6.41 and a low 16.3% strikeout rate. We should expect more of the same going forward as his SIERA sits at just below 5 (4.78). He has one of the best matchups on the board, which makes him playable for his price, but the upside is limited here.

Batter Grind Down

Atlanta

The Braves surprised a lot of us last night, as they were able to get to Aaron Nola. They have a much easier pitcher to target today in Morgan who has allowed a wOBA of +.326 to batters from both sides of the plate. They have a projected team run total of 4.07, which is in the middle of the pack today. They have a few decent targets today.

Braves Offense (2016)
Team wOBA vs. LHP — 0.247 (30 of 30)
Team ISO vs. LHP — 0.067 (30 of 30)
Team K% vs. LHP — 25.0% (25 of 30)
Runs Per Game — 3.20 (30 of 30)
Projected Run Total — 4.07 (16 of 30)

Projected Lineup

#	Player	Bats	wOBA vs. LHP	ISO vs. LHP	wOBA L14	FD Position	FD Salary	DK Position	DK Salary
1	Chase d’Arnaud	RIGHT	0.259	0.172	0.447	2B	$2,500	3B/SS	$4,700
2	Nick Markakis	LEFT	0.287	0.057	0.256	OF	$2,900	OF	$3,200
3	Freddie Freeman	LEFT	0.320	0.117	0.358	1B	$3,100	1B	$3,800
4	Jeff Francoeur	RIGHT	0.283	0.108	0.313	OF	$2,500	OF	$2,700
5	Tyler Flowers	RIGHT	0.313	0.099	0.401	C	$2,600	C	$3,100
6	Gordon Beckham	RIGHT	0.284	0.105	0.434	2B	$2,400	2B/3B	$2,800
7	Daniel Castro	RIGHT	0.276	0.123	0.156	2B	$2,100	3B/SS	$2,800
8	Williams Perez	RIGHT	0.043	0.000	0.000	P	$6,300	P	$5,700
9	Mallex Smith	LEFT	0.150	0.083	0.334	OF	$2,900	OF	$3,900
	Team Averages	—	0.246	0.096	0.300	—	—	—	—

Elite Plays – None

Secondary Plays – Chase d’Arnaud, Jeff Francoeur, Tyler Flowers

Stackability – None

Philadelphia

Perez’s struggles have come in the form of lefty bats this year. His wOBA of .368 allowed to lefties is a full .150 higher than what he has allowed to righties this season. Looking at the graph below, four out of the Phillies first six batters can hit lefty, which should give Perez a lot of trouble and is why the Phillies have the seventh highest projected team run total today. They are cheap and make a great offense to attack.

Phillies Offense (2016)
Team wOBA vs. RHP — 0.289 (28 of 30)
Team ISO vs. RHP — 0.129 (27 of 30)
Team K% vs. RHP — 21.2% (18 of 30)
Runs Per Game — 3.32 (29 of 30)
Projected Run Total — 4.43 (7 of 30)

Projected Lineup

#	Player	Bats	wOBA vs. RHP	ISO vs. RHP	wOBA L14	FD Position	FD Salary	DK Position	DK Salary
1	Odubel Herrera	LEFT	0.357	0.137	0.406	OF	$3,800	OF	$4,300
2	Cesar Hernandez	RIGHT	0.293	0.073	0.287	2B	$2,700	2B	$3,000
3	Maikel Franco	RIGHT	0.339	0.190	0.283	3B	$2,800	3B	$3,700
4	Ryan Howard	LEFT	0.327	0.240	0.185	1B	$2,300	1B	$3,700
5	Cameron Rupp	RIGHT	0.266	0.117	0.228	C	$2,400	C	$2,600
6	Freddy Galvis	SWITCH	0.290	0.114	0.281	SS	$2,500	SS	$3,300
7	Tyler Goeddel	RIGHT	0.318	0.114	0.405	OF	$2,000	OF	$3,600
8	Adam Morgan	LEFT	0.074	0.034	0.000	P	$6,500	P	$6,100
9	Peter Bourjos	RIGHT	0.250	0.113	0.319	OF	$2,100	OF	$2,800
	Team Averages	—	0.279	0.126	0.266	—	—	—	—

Elite Plays – Odubel Herrera, Cesar Hernandez, Ryan Howard

Secondary Plays – Freddy Galvis, Maikel Franco

Stackability – GPP

Cleveland at Boston – 4:05 PM ET

Stats	wOBA	HR All.	K%	BB%	Stats	wOBA	HR All.	K%	BB%
Cleveland					Boston
			Trevor Bauer					Joe Kelly
			RIGHT					RIGHT
			Vegas Moneyline					Vegas Over/Under
			BOS -125					9.5
SP vs. Left	0.316	15	22.3%	11.2%	SP vs. Left	0.316	6	19.9%	8.3%
SP vs. Right	0.307	12	24.2%	9.7%	SP vs. Right	0.374	11	18.2%	10.2%

Pitcher Grind Down

Statistics	Starts	SIERA	ERA	K%	BB%	SS%	GB%	FB%	HH%
Trevor Bauer
				FanDuel			DraftKings
				Salary:		$7,700	Salary:		$6,900
				FPPG:		20.6	FPPG:		10.7
				Pitcher Rating:		42.0	Pitcher Rank:		25
L14 Days	3	3.61	2.79	25.3%	9.3%	12.4%	54.2%	31.3%	38.8%
2016	4	3.61	3.89	25.3%	9.6%	11.1%	48.4%	33.0%	38.7%
2015	30	4.20	4.55	22.9%	10.6%	9.6%	39.2%	40.7%	31.0%

Bauer has been pretty good as a starter. After four starts, and 10+ innings out of the bullpen, Bauer has a solid 3.61 SIERA to go along with his 25.3% strikeout rate. The problem today is the matchup against one of the better offenses in the league as he takes on the Red Sox who are first in team wOBA and fifth in team ISO against righties. The matchup alone takes Bauer out of play as the total is the highest of the day.

Statistics	Starts	SIERA	ERA	K%	BB%	SS%	GB%	FB%	HH%
Joe Kelly
				FanDuel			DraftKings
				Salary:		$7,600	Salary:		$5,200
				FPPG:		14.7	FPPG:		4.2
				Pitcher Rating:		44.9	Pitcher Rank:		24
L14 Days
2016	3	5.58	9.35	22.0%	20.0%	12.3%	50.0%	17.9%	39.3%
2015	25	4.23	4.82	18.8%	8.4%	7.5%	45.6%	29.4%	35.6%

Kelly is being activated off the disabled list only to have to face one of the hottest offenses in the Indians. He did make a few rehab starts, which included a 92 pitch outing in his last game, which means he should be close to a full go for the game. With that said, he is not someone we want to target in a first game off of injury and can safely avoid him in what is projected to be the highest scoring game of the day.

Batter Grind Down

Cleveland

Cleveland bats have been hot and can continue to be used as a stack option against a returning Kelly today. They have a projected run total of 4.60, which is the fourth highest of the entire day and get to face off against Kelly who struggled mightily prior to his DL stint.

Indians Offense (2016)
Team wOBA vs. RHP — 0.323 (12 of 30)
Team ISO vs. RHP — 0.157 (16 of 30)
Team K% vs. RHP — 22.3% (22 of 30)
Runs Per Game — 4.89 (6 of 30)
Projected Run Total — 4.60 (4 of 30)

Projected Lineup

#	Player	Bats	wOBA vs. RHP	ISO vs. RHP	wOBA L14	FD Position	FD Salary	DK Position	DK Salary
1	Carlos Santana	SWITCH	0.339	0.204	0.341	1B	$3,400	1B	$4,300
2	Jason Kipnis	LEFT	0.389	0.170	0.374	2B	$3,600	2B	$4,600
3	Francisco Lindor	SWITCH	0.338	0.139	0.390	SS	$4,000	SS	$4,400
4	Mike Napoli	RIGHT	0.289	0.161	0.359	1B	$3,200	1B	$3,400
5	Jose Ramirez	SWITCH	0.309	0.128	0.382	P	$4,000	3B/OF	$3,400
6	Juan Uribe	RIGHT	0.291	0.121	0.176	3B	$2,100	3B	$2,600
7	Tyler Naquin	LEFT	0.323	0.088	0.334	OF	$2,200	OF	$3,200
8	Chris Gimenez	RIGHT	0.320	0.195	0.147	C	$2,000	C	$2,400
9	Michael Martinez	SWITCH	0.310	0.071	0.431			OF	$2,500
	Team Averages	—	0.323	0.142	0.326	—	—	—	—

Elite Plays – Carlos Santana, Jason Kipnis, Francisco Lindor

Secondary Plays – Mike Napoli, Jose Ramirez, Lonnie Chisenhall

Stackability – Cash & GPP

Boston

Bauer has allowed a wOBA of .326 to lefty bats this year, which puts Ortiz and Shaw in play today. The rest of this Boston offense is in the blue or green below in wOBA against right-handed bats and has the highest projected team run total of the day. They make a great stack as well as cash game plays today.

Red Sox Offense (2016)
Team wOBA vs. RHP — 0.363 (1 of 30)
Team ISO vs. RHP — 0.188 (5 of 30)
Team K% vs. RHP — 19.2% (10 of 30)
Runs Per Game — 5.85 (1 of 30)
Projected Run Total — 4.90 (1 of 30)

Projected Lineup

#	Player	Bats	wOBA vs. RHP	ISO vs. RHP	wOBA L14	FD Position	FD Salary	DK Position	DK Salary
1	Mookie Betts	RIGHT	0.346	0.185	0.375	OF	$4,200	OF	$5,100
2	Dustin Pedroia	RIGHT	0.354	0.156	0.320	2B	$3,600	2B	$4,200
3	Xander Bogaerts	RIGHT	0.332	0.108	0.453	SS	$4,300	SS	$4,400
4	David Ortiz	LEFT	0.422	0.333	0.418	1B	$4,200	1B	$5,000
5	Hanley Ramirez	RIGHT	0.320	0.151	0.427	1B	$3,800	1B	$4,300
6	Travis Shaw	LEFT	0.375	0.210	0.454	3B	$3,600	1B/3B	$4,200
7	Jackie Bradley	LEFT	0.369	0.270	0.550	OF	$3,900	OF	$4,100
8	Christian Vazquez	RIGHT	0.280	0.127	0.317	C	$2,200	C	$2,900
9	Blake Swihart	SWITCH	0.319	0.125		C	$2,100	C	$3,100
	Team Averages	—	0.346	0.185	0.414	—	—	—	—

Elite Plays – David Ortiz, Mookie Betts, Xander Bogaerts

Secondary Plays – Dustin Pedroia, Travis Shaw, Hanley Ramirez, Jackie Bradley

Stackability – Cash & GPP

Colorado at Pittsburgh – 4:05 PM ET

Stats	wOBA	HR All.	K%	BB%	Stats	wOBA	HR All.	K%	BB%
Colorado					Pittsburgh
			Tyler Chatwood					Jon Niese
			RIGHT					LEFT
			Vegas Moneyline					Vegas Over/Under
			PIT -130					8.0
SP vs. Left	0.246	1	15.1%	4.3%	SP vs. Left	0.361	6	16.8%	4.8%
SP vs. Right	0.358	5	17.5%	8.8%	SP vs. Right	0.343	25	14.7%	8.1%

Pitcher Grind Down

Statistics	Starts	SIERA	ERA	K%	BB%	SS%	GB%	FB%	HH%
Tyler Chatwood
				FanDuel			DraftKings
				Salary:		$7,900	Salary:		$8,700
				FPPG:		32.5	FPPG:		16.1
				Pitcher Rating:		47.3	Pitcher Rank:		21
L14 Days	2	4.36	6.23	12.5%	10.7%	7.5%	72.1%	20.9%	30.2%
2016	8	4.05	3.20	16.4%	6.8%	8.4%	57.4%	27.1%	26.5%
2015

It is rare to ever want to target a Colorado pitcher within or out of Coors and today that trend continues. Although Chatwood sports a low SIERA/ERA (4.05/3.20), he does not have the upside needed to use him as a fantasy starter. He has a low 16.4% strikeout rate and is facing the Pirates who are ranked fifth in the league in team wOBA against righties.

Statistics	Starts	SIERA	ERA	K%	BB%	SS%	GB%	FB%	HH%
Jon Niese
				FanDuel			DraftKings
				Salary:		$7,100	Salary:		$5,100
				FPPG:		23.3	FPPG:		10.1
				Pitcher Rating:		55.7	Pitcher Rank:		13
L14 Days	2	3.60	3.55	19.2%	5.8%	9.0%	52.8%	19.4%	34.2%
2016	8	4.42	5.28	17.0%	8.3%	7.3%	50.3%	30.6%	31.1%
2015	29	4.27	4.13	14.7%	7.1%	5.8%	54.5%	24.7%	29.7%

Niese bounced back from a bad string of starts in late April/early May and pitched well in his last two starts. While this is good news, his last two starts did come against very inept offenses in the Braves and the Reds. On the season, Niese has a SIERA of 4.42 and a minimal strikeout rate of just 17.0%. He is another pitcher whose upside is limited on the day slate today, but can be looked at where cheap (DK).

Batter Grind Down

Colorado

Looking at Niese’s wOBA allowed makes it appear that he has really struggled this year. He has allowed a wOBA of .391 and over to batters from both sides of the plate this season. Yet, the Rockies are in the bottom third of the league in terms of projected run total (3.82). There are better offenses to target early.

Rockies Offense (2016)
Team wOBA vs. LHP — 0.355 (4 of 30)
Team ISO vs. LHP — 0.196 (4 of 30)
Team K% vs. LHP — 25.5% (26 of 30)
Runs Per Game — 5.05 (4 of 30)
Projected Run Total — 3.82 (22 of 30)

Projected Lineup

#	Player	Bats	wOBA vs. LHP	ISO vs. LHP	wOBA L14	FD Position	FD Salary	DK Position	DK Salary
1	Charlie Blackmon	LEFT	0.321	0.130	0.379	OF	$4,100	OF	$4,100
2	Trevor Story	RIGHT	0.444	0.350	0.387	SS	$4,200	SS	$4,600
3	Nolan Arenado	RIGHT	0.357	0.246	0.364	3B	$4,200	3B	$4,400
4	Carlos Gonzalez	LEFT	0.220	0.103	0.165	OF	$2,800	OF	$2,600
5	Mark Reynolds	RIGHT	0.341	0.182	0.320	1B	$3,200	1B	$3,300
6	Ryan Raburn	RIGHT	0.433	0.291	0.339	OF	$2,500	OF	$3,100
7	DJ LeMahieu	RIGHT	0.324	0.058	0.348	2B	$3,200	2B	$3,500
8	Dustin Garneau	RIGHT	0.205	0.034	0.185	C	$2,500	C	$2,400
9	Tyler Chatwood	RIGHT	0.147	0.000	0.614	P	$7,900	P	$8,700
	Team Averages	—	0.310	0.155	0.345	—	—	—	—

Elite Plays – Nolan Arenado, Trevor Story

Secondary Plays – Charlie Blackmon

Stackability – None

Pittsburgh

Chatwood is attackable from the right side of the plate, as he has allowed a wOBA of .358 to righties so far this year. This bodes well for the Pirates offense today who are fifth in runs scored per game. They are not the top offense to target early on, but do have some solid options in the front portion of their lineup.

Pirates Offense (2016)
Team wOBA vs. RHP — 0.339 (5 of 30)
Team ISO vs. RHP — 0.143 (23 of 30)
Team K% vs. RHP — 18.6% (6 of 30)
Runs Per Game — 5.00 (5 of 30)
Projected Run Total — 4.18 (14 of 30)

Projected Lineup

#	Player	Bats	wOBA vs. RHP	ISO vs. RHP	wOBA L14	FD Position	FD Salary	DK Position	DK Salary
1	John Jaso	LEFT	0.352	0.168	0.413	1B	$3,100	1B	$3,200
2	Andrew McCutchen	RIGHT	0.368	0.200	0.360	OF	$4,200	OF	$4,200
3	Gregory Polanco	LEFT	0.339	0.149	0.431	OF	$4,100	OF	$4,500
4	Jung Ho Kang	RIGHT	0.366	0.194	0.431	3B	$3,500	3B	$3,300
5	Starling Marte	RIGHT	0.355	0.157	0.350	OF	$4,000	OF	$4,500
6	Josh Harrison	RIGHT	0.306	0.106	0.308	2B	$3,200	2B	$3,200
7	Jordy Mercer	RIGHT	0.264	0.064	0.279	SS	$2,700	SS	$2,600
8	Chris Stewart	RIGHT	0.299	0.078	0.318	C	$2,200	C	$2,100
9	Jon Niese	LEFT	0.191	0.020	0.000	P	$7,100	P	$5,100
	Team Averages	—	0.316	0.126	0.321	—	—	—	—

MLB Grind Down: Saturday, May 21st

Kansas City at Chicago White Sox – 2:10 PM ET

Pitcher Grind Down

Batter Grind Down

Kansas City

Projected Lineup

Elite Plays – Lorenzo Cain, Eric Hosmer, Alex Gordon

Secondary Plays – Kendrys Morales, Alcides Escobar

Stackability – Cash & GPP

Chicago White Sox

Projected Lineup

Elite Plays – Jose Abreu, Brett Lawrie

Secondary Plays – Adam Eaton, Jimmy Rollins, Melky Cabrera, Avisail Garcia

Stackability – GPP

Toronto at Minnesota – 2:10 PM ET

Pitcher Grind Down

Batter Grind Down

Toronto

Projected Lineup

Elite Plays – Jose Bautista, Josh Donaldson, Edwin Encarnacion, Troy Tulowitzki

Secondary Plays – Justin Smoak, Michael Saunders

Stackability – Cash & GPP

Minnesota

Projected Lineup

Elite Plays – Miguel Sano, Byung Ho Park

Secondary Plays – Trevor Plouffe

Stackability – GPP

Atlanta at Philadelphia – 3:05 PM ET

Pitcher Grind Down

Batter Grind Down

Atlanta

Projected Lineup

Elite Plays – None

Secondary Plays – Chase d’Arnaud, Jeff Francoeur, Tyler Flowers

Stackability – None

Philadelphia

Projected Lineup

Elite Plays – Odubel Herrera, Cesar Hernandez, Ryan Howard

Secondary Plays – Freddy Galvis, Maikel Franco

Stackability – GPP

Cleveland at Boston – 4:05 PM ET

Pitcher Grind Down

Batter Grind Down

Cleveland

Projected Lineup

Elite Plays – Carlos Santana, Jason Kipnis, Francisco Lindor

Secondary Plays – Mike Napoli, Jose Ramirez, Lonnie Chisenhall

Stackability – Cash & GPP

Boston

Projected Lineup

Elite Plays – David Ortiz, Mookie Betts, Xander Bogaerts

Secondary Plays – Dustin Pedroia, Travis Shaw, Hanley Ramirez, Jackie Bradley

Stackability – Cash & GPP

Colorado at Pittsburgh – 4:05 PM ET

Pitcher Grind Down

Batter Grind Down

Colorado

Projected Lineup

Elite Plays – Nolan Arenado, Trevor Story

Secondary Plays – Charlie Blackmon

Stackability – None

Pittsburgh

Projected Lineup

Elite Plays – Andrew McCutchen, Starling Marte

Secondary Plays – Gregory Polanco, Jung Ho Kang, John Jaso

Stackability – GPP

Are you an incentives member? Come check out the MLB Expert Chat from 5:30 – 6:00 PM ET.

Jump to Page 1 2 3

About the Author