MLB Grind Down: Saturday, September 1st

by Taylor Smith (tcsmith031) Last Updated 2018-09-01 18:26:15

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The RotoGrinders MLB Grind Down will give you an in-depth analysis into the upcoming MLB schedule. This article will break down the numbers for every single game and give you analysis on which trends you can exploit. While matchups are a major factor in daily fantasy baseball, there are plenty of other factors to consider such as injuries, weather, and salaries.

The analysis should point you in the right direction, but it is still up to you to decipher the information and make your own selections. No sport has more variance than baseball. The best choice is not always the right choice but following the trends will win you money over time.

Note: As always, if you want to try a new DFS site, be sure to click through a RotoGrinders link and use our DraftKings promo code, FanDuel promo code, and FantasyDraft promo code to receive the best perks in the industry.

Stackability Rating System:

GREEN – A viable full stack in cash games and GPPs.
YELLOW – A viable mini-stack in cash games and full stack in GPPs.
ORANGE – A viable stack in large field GPPs.
RED – Not a recommended stack for cash games or GPPs.

Implied Run Totals

Ballpark Ratings

Detroit at NY Yankees – 4:05 PM ET

Stats	wOBA	xwOBA	HC%	HR/9	K%	GB%	Stats	wOBA	xwOBA	HC%	HR/9	K%	GB%
Detroit								NY Yankees
			Daniel Norris							Masahiro Tanaka
			LEFT							RIGHT
			Vegas Moneyline							Vegas Over/Under
			TBD
SP vs. Left (2016-17)	0.309	0.290	29.4%	1.69	21.7%	50.0%	SP vs. Left (2016-17)	0.291	0.319	35.4%	1.11	23.5%	51.0%
SP vs. Right (2016-17)	0.369	0.347	42.9%	1.80	26.0%	35.7%	SP vs. Right (2016-17)	0.332	0.322	40.1%	2.06	26.0%	43.9%

Pitcher Grind Down

	Stats	Starts	SIERA	ERA	K%	BB%	GB%	HC%	SC%	aFV	SwS%
Daniel Norris
	FanDuel				DraftKings				FantasyDraft
	Salary:			$5,500	Salary:			$5,100	Salary:
	Salary Rank:			29 of 29	Salary Rank:			25 of 29	Salary Rank:
	2017	18	4.94	5.31	18.7%	9.6%	38.8%	41.7%	16.3%	93.2	9.2%
	2018	2	4.26	5.87	24.7%	12.3%	40.9%	37.8%	13.3%	89.0	12.1%

Daniel Norris made 5 appearances, including 2 starts, for the Tigers back in April before suffering a long-term groin injury. He’s made 4 minor league rehab starts this month, topping out at 72 pitches in his most recent outing. In 22 games last season, the left-hander had a 4.94 SIERA and a mediocre strikeout rate of 18.7%. Norris’ minor league ground ball numbers are decent, but he’s been way more of a fly ball guy during his stints in the big leagues. He also allowed hard hits at a 41.7% clip last season. Considering Norris will likely be on a pitch count and the fact that he’s taking on the Yankees in the Bronx today, he’s an easy fade, even on the short early slate.

Quick Breakdown: I’ll be fading Norris in his first big league outing in months.

	Stats	Starts	SIERA	ERA	K%	BB%	GB%	HC%	SC%	aFV	SwS%
Masahiro Tanaka
	FanDuel				DraftKings				FantasyDraft
	Salary:			$10,200	Salary:			$9,700	Salary:
	Salary Rank:			3 of 29	Salary Rank:			4 of 29	Salary Rank:
	2017	30	3.52	4.74	25.8%	5.5%	49.2%	31.4%	19.5%	92.2	15.1%
	2018	22	3.58	3.97	24.9%	6.0%	47.1%	38.0%	18.3%	91.7	13.8%
	L14	3	3.40	3.32	22.1%	2.6%	49.1%	42.1%	21.1%	91.7	14.3%

Masahiro Tanaka is the priciest pitcher of the early slate by a wide margin, but with good reason. The veteran has pitched well this season, as evidenced by his healthy 24.9% strikeout rate and 3.58 SIERA. Walks are rarely a problem for him, and he has kept the ball on the ground at a 47.1% rate so far this season. Tanaka does tend to give up plenty of dongs (23 in 22 starts this season), but today he’ll face-off with a weak Tigers offense lacking in the power department. Tanaka is the “safest” pitching option on the early slate. Detroit has scored a few runs against J.A. Happ and Luis Severino in the last couple of games, but don’t let that affect your thinking when it comes to Tanaka.

Quick Breakdown: Tanaka is easily the top option on the early slate.

Batter Grind Down

Detroit

Masahiro Tanaka isn’t necessarily someone we love to pick on, but it’s not like this is a slate with a ton of worthwhile bats. Tanaka does have reverse splits, and he’s coughed up 16 home runs to right-handed hitters. Nick Castellanos is clearly the Tigers’ best hitter, so he looks like a serviceable play today. He’s the only Detroit hitter I’ll label as an elite play, but the rest of the hitters on this team are cheap so you can fill in some values as needed. Jeimer Candelario and Niko Goodrum are the next-best options.
h4. Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

#	Player	Bats	xwOBA	ISO	HC%	BB%	K%	GB%	FD Pos.	FD Sal.	DK Pos.	DK Sal.	FDRFT Pos.	FDRFT Sal.
1	Jeimer Candelario	SWITCH	0.290	0.166	34.2%	11.5%	24.7%	38.6%	3B	$2,900	3B	$4,000	N/A	N/A
2	Jim Adduci	LEFT	0.308	0.144	37.5%	4.9%	17.5%	43.0%	OF	$2,300	1B	$3,500	N/A	N/A
3	Nick Castellanos	RIGHT	0.383	0.191	48.1%	6.2%	23.4%	34.9%	OF	$3,300	OF	$4,300	N/A	N/A
4	Victor Martinez	SWITCH	0.336	0.084	37.9%	7.1%	8.9%	39.5%	C	$2,400	1B	$3,400	N/A	N/A
5	Niko Goodrum	SWITCH	0.318	0.220	39.0%	8.7%	29.3%	40.1%	2B	$2,700	2B/OF	$3,800	N/A	N/A
6	Ronny Rodriguez	RIGHT	0.258	0.066	32.8%	7.2%	22.9%	50.0%	SS	$2,400	2B/SS	$3,300	N/A	N/A
7	James McCann	RIGHT	0.282	0.087	38.9%	5.6%	23.9%	40.1%	C	$2,100	C	$2,700	N/A	N/A
8	JaCoby Jones	RIGHT	0.288	0.172	29.7%	4.7%	31.5%	40.7%	OF	$2,000	OF	$3,200	N/A	N/A
9	Dawel Lugo	RIGHT							3B	$2,100	2B	$3,600	N/A	N/A
	Team Averages		0.308	0.141	37.3%	7.0%	22.8%	40.9%

Elite Plays – Nick Castellanos

Secondary Plays – Jeimer Candelario, Niko Goodrum

Stackability – ORANGE / RED

NY Yankees

Norris has shown reverse splits to this point in his career, albeit in a limited sample at the major league level. He’s allowed 21 homers to righties and 14 homers to lefties in his career. Giancarlo Stanton is miserably frustrating, but I will probably go back to the well once again today considering he’s facing a left-hander that hasn’t found consistent major league success. Gleyber Torres, Aaron Hicks and Miguel Andujar are fine plays in their own right. Andrew McCutchen is also plenty viable if he’s made it to New York in time. Greg Bird isn’t a fun roster, but perhaps he and/or Brett Gardner can take advantage of the weakness Norris has shown against left-handed hitters. The Yankees are pretty easily the top stack of the early slate. Gary Sanchez is also expected to return today.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. LH Pitching)

#	Player	Bats	xwOBA	ISO	HC%	BB%	K%	GB%	FD Pos.	FD Sal.	DK Pos.	DK Sal.	FDRFT Pos.	FDRFT Sal.
1	Andrew McCutchen	RIGHT	0.382	0.178	43.4%	11.9%	20.7%	43.4%	OF	$3,800	OF	$4,400	N/A	N/A
2	Giancarlo Stanton	RIGHT	0.451	0.336	59.3%	11.2%	25.2%	39.6%	OF	$4,800	OF	$5,200	N/A	N/A
3	Aaron Hicks	SWITCH	0.400	0.274	48.3%	13.5%	18.8%	35.2%	OF	$4,400	OF	$4,900	N/A	N/A
4	Miguel Andujar	RIGHT	0.319	0.231	32.1%	5.0%	18.0%	43.4%	3B	$4,100	3B	$4,800	N/A	N/A
5	Luke Voit	RIGHT	0.303	0.125	38.9%	7.7%	23.1%	38.9%	1B	$3,200	1B	$4,100	N/A	N/A
6	Gary Sanchez	RIGHT	0.431	0.283	33.3%	16.7%	20.8%	33.3%	C	$3,500	C	$4,300	N/A	N/A
7	Gleyber Torres	RIGHT	0.384	0.286	49.2%	11.5%	26.0%	30.8%	SS	$4,200	2B	$5,000	N/A	N/A
8	Neil Walker	SWITCH	0.242	0.078	29.2%	7.1%	24.3%	46.8%	2B	$3,300	1B/2B	$4,000	N/A	N/A
9	Shane Robinson	RIGHT	0.150	0.000	15.4%	5.6%	22.2%	16.7%	OF	$2,100	OF	$2,700	N/A	N/A
	Team Averages		0.340	0.199	38.8%	10.0%	22.1%	36.5%

Elite Plays – Giancarlo Stanton, Gleyber Torres, Miguel Andujar, Greg Bird, Andrew McCutchen, Aaron Hicks, Gary Sanchez

Secondary Plays – Brett Gardner, Neil Walker, Luke Voit

Stackability – GREEN

NY Mets at San Francisco – 4:05 PM ET

Stats	wOBA	xwOBA	HC%	HR/9	K%	GB%	Stats	wOBA	xwOBA	HC%	HR/9	K%	GB%
NY Mets								San Francisco
			Steven Matz							Derek Holland
			LEFT							LEFT
			Vegas Moneyline							Vegas Over/Under
			SF -140							8.0
SP vs. Left (2016-17)	0.312	0.291	13.4%	0.68	17.1%	71.3%	SP vs. Left (2016-17)	0.214	0.276	19.0%	0.00	15.2%	54.3%
SP vs. Right (2016-17)	0.332	0.327	38.1%	1.71	22.7%	43.0%	SP vs. Right (2016-17)	0.336	0.350	44.4%	1.34	25.9%	33.1%

Pitcher Grind Down

	Stats	Starts	SIERA	ERA	K%	BB%	GB%	HC%	SC%	aFV	SwS%
Steven Matz
	FanDuel				DraftKings				FantasyDraft
	Salary:			$7,400	Salary:			$7,500	Salary:
	Salary Rank:			17 of 29	Salary Rank:			15 of 29	Salary Rank:
	2017	13	4.71	6.08	16.1%	6.4%	47.1%	32.9%	21.9%	93.1	7.1%
	2018	24	4.20	4.36	21.5%	8.4%	49.4%	32.5%	17.2%	93.4	8.7%
	L14	3	3.65	4.50	23.7%	5.1%	45.0%	36.6%	17.1%	94.1	12.8%

In his last start, Steven Matz pitched well, striking out 7 while allowing just one run over 7 innings of work. Somehow, the Mets lost that game 15-0. Classic Mets. On the season, the lefty carries a 21.5% strikeout rate alongside a walk rate north of 8%. His 4.20 SIERA is solid enough, and he has a ground ball rate nearing 50%. Matz has yielded 20 homers in 24 starts, but the home run risk is mitigated today going into spacious AT&T Park to take on a watered-down version of the Giants. It’s easy to pair him with Masahiro Tanaka on multi-pitcher sites, so that’s looking like the preferred duo on the early slate.

Quick Breakdown: Matz is an elite play, especially because he’s inexpensive.

	Stats	Starts	SIERA	ERA	K%	BB%	GB%	HC%	SC%	aFV	SwS%
Derek Holland
	FanDuel				DraftKings				FantasyDraft
	Salary:			$8,300	Salary:			$7,900	Salary:
	Salary Rank:			11 of 29	Salary Rank:			12 of 29	Salary Rank:
	2017	26	5.57	6.20	16.6%	12.0%	37.7%	38.4%	17.6%	91.1	7.1%
	2018	25	4.09	3.65	23.7%	8.7%	38.1%	38.4%	17.3%	91.6	10.4%
	L14	3	4.52	1.13	22.5%	11.3%	40.9%	28.3%	19.6%	91.6	7.6%

Former gas can Derek Holland hasn’t looked like a gas can as a member of the Giants. The southpaw boasts a respectable 23.7% K-rate, and his fly ball tendency hasn’t been much of an issue thanks to his pitcher-friendly home park. His 4.09 SIERA is a bit worse than his 3.65 ERA, but a 4.09 ERA is more than passable. Holland has also held left-handed hitters in check, which will help him against the likes of Michael Conforto, Brandon Nimmo, Jay Bruce and Dominic Smith in the New York lineup. I prefer the slight discount you can get on Matz here, but I think Holland is a great pivot considering he may come in at lower ownership.

Quick Breakdown: Holland is a solid option, though I slightly prefer Matz.

Batter Grind Down

NY Mets

Holland has a wide platoon split, so you can attack him with some of the right-handed Mets. He has yielded a .336 wOBA to righties, and RHBs have accounted for all 16 home runs against him this season. Todd Frazier, Amed Rosario, Wilmer Flores, Austin Jackson and Devin Mesoraco are viable individual plays. The lefties don’t look great here, but you can differentiate with guys like Michael Conforto, Brandon Nimmo, Dominic Smith or Jay Bruce.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. LH Pitching)

#	Player	Bats	xwOBA	ISO	HC%	BB%	K%	GB%	FD Pos.	FD Sal.	DK Pos.	DK Sal.	FDRFT Pos.	FDRFT Sal.
1	Amed Rosario	RIGHT	0.314	0.134	30.6%	5.1%	22.9%	45.2%	SS	$3,000	SS	$3,500	N/A	N/A
2	Jeff McNeil	LEFT	0.527	0.053	55.6%	9.5%	4.8%	44.4%	2B	$3,600	2B	$3,700	N/A	N/A
3	Austin Jackson	RIGHT	0.275	0.018	28.8%	6.8%	30.5%	52.1%	OF	$2,500	OF	$3,200	N/A	N/A
4	Michael Conforto	LEFT	0.342	0.213	37.0%	9.1%	32.9%	53.1%	OF	$3,000	OF	$3,900	N/A	N/A
5	Todd Frazier	RIGHT	0.282	0.129	32.8%	9.5%	23.2%	43.8%	3B	$2,900	3B	$4,500	N/A	N/A
6	Jay Bruce	LEFT	0.274	0.123	29.2%	5.8%	24.6%	31.3%	OF	$2,400	OF	$3,100	N/A	N/A
7	Devin Mesoraco	RIGHT	0.319	0.148	34.9%	13.8%	16.9%	44.2%	C	$2,300	C	$3,000	N/A	N/A
8	Brandon Nimmo	LEFT	0.288	0.172	41.4%	8.7%	35.7%	56.1%	OF	$3,300	OF	$4,700	N/A	N/A
9	Steven Matz	LEFT	0.130	0.000	0.0%	8.3%	50.0%	75.0%	P	$7,400	P	$7,500	N/A	N/A
	Team Averages		0.306	0.110	32.3%	8.5%	26.8%	49.5%

Elite Plays – Amed Rosario, Todd Frazier, Wilmer Flores

Secondary Plays – Devin Mesoraco, Austin Jackson, Jay Bruce, Michael Conforto, Brandon Nimmo

Stackability – YELLOW

San Francisco

The Giants just dumped Andrew McCutchen and Buster Posey is done for the year, which has this lineup looking quite dreadful. Still, with so few options on a 2-game slate, you can pick your spots with some SF bats, especially since most are cheap. Evan Longoria and Nick Hundley look like the best options against Matz, while Gorkys Hernandez and Alen Hanson are viable. I don’t hate Brandon Belt in the lefty-lefty matchup thanks to his affordable price tag.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. LH Pitching)

#	Player	Bats	xwOBA	ISO	HC%	BB%	K%	GB%	FD Pos.	FD Sal.	DK Pos.	DK Sal.	FDRFT Pos.	FDRFT Sal.
1	Chase d’Arnaud	RIGHT	0.324	0.231	41.7%	3.6%	30.9%	22.9%	2B	$2,000	2B/3B	$3,300	N/A	N/A
2	Brandon Belt	LEFT	0.352	0.089	37.5%	9.8%	20.3%	36.6%	1B	$2,900	1B	$3,400	N/A	N/A
3	Austin Slater	RIGHT	0.329	0.058	42.5%	8.1%	21.0%	55.0%	OF	$2,000	1B/OF	$3,400	N/A	N/A
4	Evan Longoria	RIGHT	0.401	0.234	45.5%	5.2%	12.6%	42.7%	3B	$3,000	3B	$4,200	N/A	N/A
5	Nick Hundley	RIGHT	0.384	0.241	50.8%	7.4%	23.4%	33.8%	C	$2,100	C	$3,300	N/A	N/A
6	Gorkys Hernandez	RIGHT	0.315	0.177	38.5%	6.7%	25.9%	43.7%	OF	$2,500	OF	$3,300	N/A	N/A
7	Alen Hanson	SWITCH	0.222	0.065	31.3%	3.0%	24.2%	57.4%	OF	$2,000	2B/OF	$3,300	N/A	N/A
8	Chris Shaw	LEFT							OF	$2,700	1B	$3,000	N/A	N/A
9	Derek Holland	LEFT	0.085	0.000	66.7%	0.0%	62.5%	83.3%	P	$8,300	P	$7,900	N/A	N/A
	Team Averages		0.302	0.137	44.3%	5.5%	27.6%	46.9%

Elite Plays – Evan Longoria, Nick Hundley

Secondary Plays – Brandon Belt, Alen Hanson, Gorkys Hernandez

Stackability – YELLOW / ORANGE

Chicago Cubs at Philadelphia – 7:05 PM ET

Stats	wOBA	xwOBA	HC%	HR/9	K%	GB%	Stats	wOBA	xwOBA	HC%	HR/9	K%	GB%
Chicago Cubs								Philadelphia
			Kyle Hendricks							Zach Eflin
			RIGHT							RIGHT
			Vegas Moneyline							Vegas Over/Under
			CHC-125							8.5
SP vs. Left (2016-17)	0.309	0.302	30.2%	1.25	23.7%	42.9%	SP vs. Left (2016-17)	0.362	0.347	30.8%	1.83	20.9%	36.4%
SP vs. Right (2016-17)	0.304	0.329	30.0%	1.04	17.0%	48.7%	SP vs. Right (2016-17)	0.272	0.276	29.1%	0.73	22.6%	43.6%

Pitcher Grind Down

	Stats	Starts	SIERA	ERA	K%	BB%	GB%	HC%	SC%	aFV	SwS%
Kyle Hendricks
	FanDuel				DraftKings				FantasyDraft
	Salary:			$8,500	Salary:			$8,300	Salary:		$16,100
	Salary Rank:			9 of 29	Salary Rank:			8 of 29	Salary Rank:		7 of 29
	2017	24	4.08	3.03	21.6%	7.0%	50.1%	30.4%	22.5%	85.8	8.3%
	2018	27	4.05	3.86	20.0%	5.8%	46.2%	30.1%	23.0%	86.8	9.0%
	L14	3	4.05	2.70	20.5%	5.1%	41.1%	19.0%	31.0%	86.7	9.1%

Kyle Hendricks has been in decent form lately. On the year, the veteran has a strikeout rate of 20% on the nose and he’s kept the ball on the ground at a 46.2% clip. The ground ball numbers are down a tick from where they’ve been in the past, but it’s still a solid mark. Hendricks is rarely a fun roster considering he doesn’t rack up strikeouts by the truckload, but he also rarely gets blown up. The right-hander has already allowed a career-high 20 homers on the year, which is definitely a concern going into a power park like Citizens Bank tonight. The Phillies do have the third-highest strikeout rate in the league (25.1%) against right-handed pitching, which makes Hendricks a bit more interesting. I don’t think he’s a core play on this slate, but given the matchup and relatively cheap price tag I think he’s at least worth considering in all formats.

Quick Breakdown: Hendricks is a viable option, but he’s not necessarily a building block on a 13-game slate.

	Stats	Starts	SIERA	ERA	K%	BB%	GB%	HC%	SC%	aFV	SwS%
Zach Eflin
	FanDuel				DraftKings				FantasyDraft
	Salary:			$7,800	Salary:			$6,900	Salary:		$13,700
	Salary Rank:			15 of 29	Salary Rank:			21 of 29	Salary Rank:		17 of 29
	2017	11	5.08	6.16	12.5%	4.3%	44.1%	33.3%	16.7%	92.7	7.3%
	2018	19	3.99	3.99	21.9%	5.8%	40.4%	29.8%	20.8%	94.3	9.9%
	L14	3	5.06	6.46	15.2%	8.9%	47.4%	36.7%	16.7%	94.7	7.9%

Zach Eflin has given the Phillies some good innings this season, which is a bit of a surprise considering he’d been terrible in each of his previous big league stints. His 3.99 SIERA is identical to his ERA, while the right-hander has a serviceable strikeout rate just under 22%. He has also kept the walks (5.8%) and hard contact (29.8%) down. While I’m intrigued by his numbers and cheap price point, Eflin has been a tad wobbly of late and a matchup with the powerful Cubs lineup is less than ideal. Kris Bryant is also expected back today, which doesn’t make things easier. Eflin isn’t the worst play, but this is a deep pitching slate with plenty of better options.

Quick Breakdown: Eflin can be deployed as a deep GPP flier, but nothing more.

Batter Grind Down

Chicago Cubs

Eflin has been pretty serviceable this season, but I’m still hesitant to buy into him completely. He has still allowed a .362 wOBA with 9 home runs against lefties this season, and the Cubs have no shortage of LHBs to throw his way. Anthony Rizzo looks great here, but he’s priced through the roof. Daniel Murphy is a more affordable option that also makes plenty of sense. Kyle Schwarber and Ian Happ are GPP options with upside. I don’t hate Kris Bryant or Javier Baez here from the right side, with a slight lean toward Bryant given the discount compared to Baez. I think stacking the Cubs in tournaments while going with one-offs in cash games is a solid play tonight.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

#	Player	Bats	xwOBA	ISO	HC%	BB%	K%	GB%	FD Pos.	FD Sal.	DK Pos.	DK Sal.	FDRFT Pos.	FDRFT Sal.
1	Daniel Murphy	LEFT	0.398	0.193	27.8%	6.9%	6.3%	33.8%	2B	$3,900	1B/2B	$4,200	2B	$8,000
2	Javier Baez	RIGHT	0.339	0.275	36.6%	3.3%	26.0%	46.3%	SS	$4,000	2B/SS	$5,300	2B	$9,500
3	Anthony Rizzo	LEFT	0.410	0.233	36.4%	12.0%	9.8%	37.4%	1B	$4,400	1B	$5,400	1B	$10,400
4	Kris Bryant	RIGHT	0.356	0.140	30.1%	11.1%	20.1%	39.2%	3B	$4,000	3B	$4,500	IF/OF	$9,300
5	Ben Zobrist	SWITCH	0.365	0.179	35.5%	13.1%	13.4%	44.2%	OF	$3,100	2B/OF	$4,500	IF/OF	$9,200
6	Willson Contreras	RIGHT	0.298	0.138	29.4%	7.3%	21.2%	52.0%	C	$3,000	C	$3,900	IF/OF	$7,300
7	Kyle Schwarber	LEFT	0.375	0.270	42.1%	14.7%	25.3%	40.6%	OF	$3,500	OF	$4,300	IF/OF	$8,300
8	Kyle Hendricks	RIGHT	0.099	0.024	9.5%	2.3%	50.0%	68.4%	P	$8,500	P	$8,300	P	$16,100
9	Ian Happ	SWITCH	0.359	0.190	41.8%	17.0%	35.1%	36.6%	OF	$2,500	OF	$3,800	IF/OF	$7,400
	Team Averages		0.333	0.182	32.1%	9.7%	23.0%	44.3%

Elite Plays – Daniel Murphy, Anthony Rizzo, Kris Bryant, Javier Baez

Secondary Plays – Ian Happ, Kyle Schwarber, Ben Zobrist

Stackability – YELLOW

Philadelphia

Hendricks isn’t really a guy we typically want to be picking on. He has shown a slight weakness against left-handed hitters in his career, though the numbers aren’t egregious. Odubel Herrera, Carlos Santana, Rhys Hoskins, Asdrubal Cabrera and Cesar Hernandez are fine individually, though none of them look like must-plays by any means. I’m lukewarm on Philly in general tonight.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

#	Player	Bats	xwOBA	ISO	HC%	BB%	K%	GB%	FD Pos.	FD Sal.	DK Pos.	DK Sal.	FDRFT Pos.	FDRFT Sal.
1	Cesar Hernandez	SWITCH	0.313	0.119	23.4%	14.0%	22.5%	41.3%	2B	$3,000	2B	$4,000	2B	$7,600
2	Rhys Hoskins	RIGHT	0.375	0.272	37.5%	11.3%	24.6%	29.3%	OF	$3,600	OF	$4,500	IF/OF	$9,000
3	Asdrubal Cabrera	SWITCH	0.355	0.228	42.6%	7.1%	21.6%	39.3%	SS	$2,600	2B/SS	$3,900	SS	$7,700
4	Odubel Herrera	LEFT	0.308	0.195	26.2%	7.5%	19.6%	39.6%	OF	$2,300	OF	$4,100	IF/OF	$8,000
5	Carlos Santana	SWITCH	0.366	0.178	34.8%	18.4%	16.0%	39.1%	1B	$3,100	1B	$4,200	1B	$8,100
6	Maikel Franco	RIGHT	0.327	0.224	26.7%	5.4%	14.2%	51.5%	3B	$3,200	3B	$3,800	3B	$7,500
7	Nick Williams	LEFT	0.379	0.210	32.7%	8.1%	22.1%	42.3%	OF	$2,400	OF	$3,900	RF	$7,500
8	Jorge Alfaro	RIGHT	0.284	0.139	37.1%	3.9%	38.1%	49.3%	C	$2,200	C	$3,600	C	$7,400
9	Zach Eflin	RIGHT	0.113	0.100	18.8%	0.0%	52.9%	81.8%	P	$7,800	P	$6,900	P	$13,700
	Team Averages		0.313	0.185	31.1%	8.4%	25.7%	45.9%

Elite Plays – None

Secondary Plays – Rhys Hoskins, Carlos Santana, Odubel Herrera, Cesar Hernandez, Asdrubal Cabrera, Wilson Ramos

Stackability – ORANGE

Milwaukee at Washington – 7:05 PM ET

Stats	wOBA	xwOBA	HC%	HR/9	K%	GB%	Stats	wOBA	xwOBA	HC%	HR/9	K%	GB%
Milwaukee								Washington
			Chase Anderson							Stephen Strasburg
			RIGHT							RIGHT
			Vegas Moneyline							Vegas Over/Under
			WAS-138							8.5
SP vs. Left (2016-17)	0.300	0.308	33.7%	1.38	19.9%	39.9%	SP vs. Left (2016-17)	0.304	0.318	30.2%	1.03	23.2%	48.3%
SP vs. Right (2016-17)	0.335	0.389	39.1%	2.24	19.6%	29.4%	SP vs. Right (2016-17)	0.319	0.339	40.6%	1.69	34.1%	38.8%

Pitcher Grind Down

	Stats	Starts	SIERA	ERA	K%	BB%	GB%	HC%	SC%	aFV	SwS%
Chase Anderson
	FanDuel				DraftKings				FantasyDraft
	Salary:			$7,200	Salary:			$7,400	Salary:		$14,500
	Salary Rank:			19 of 29	Salary Rank:			17 of 29	Salary Rank:		15 of 29
	2017	25	4.14	2.74	23.4%	7.2%	39.2%	31.7%	19.9%	93.1	10.2%
	2018	26	4.66	4.04	19.8%	8.8%	34.6%	36.4%	20.5%	92.4	9.1%
	L14	2	3.78	4.91	21.4%	0.0%	31.3%	43.8%	18.8%	91.5	9.2%

Chase Anderson has come back down to earth after a solid 2017. His strikeouts (19.8%) are down, his walk rate (8.8%) and hard contact rate (36.4%) are up, and he’s already allowed twice as many dingers (28) as he surrendered all of last season. His 4.66 SIERA is quite a bit less favorable than his 4.04 ERA, too. Anderson also doesn’t pitch that deep into games, which is just another reason not to play him. The matchup with the Nationals is also not great. I don’t know why Anderson is as expensive as he is.

Quick Breakdown: Anderson is an easy fade.

	Stats	Starts	SIERA	ERA	K%	BB%	GB%	HC%	SC%	aFV	SwS%
Stephen Strasburg
	FanDuel				DraftKings				FantasyDraft
	Salary:			$9,400	Salary:			$9,000	Salary:		$17,700
	Salary Rank:			6 of 29	Salary Rank:			6 of 29	Salary Rank:		5 of 29
	2017	28	3.37	2.52	29.1%	6.7%	46.8%	27.3%	21.4%	95.6	13.0%
	2018	16	3.27	4.15	28.1%	6.3%	44.4%	34.5%	18.0%	95.1	11.6%
	L14	2	4.08	6.30	22.7%	9.1%	51.7%	33.3%	16.7%	93.4	10.9%

Strasburg has made 2 starts since coming off the DL. He threw 99 pitches in his last outing, so it’s safe to say he’s fully stretched out. The right-hander has his usual stellar strikeout numbers (28.1%) and his 3.27 SIERA is nearly a full run better than his 4.15 ERA. Strasburg has been taken deep 14 times in 16 starts, but that’s really been his only concern so far. The Brewers offense on the other side today has a ton of power, but they also have the fourth-highest K-rate (25%) in the league on the year against RHPs. I’d be wary of rostering Strasburg if he came with his usual expensive price tag, but he’s still cheaper than usual tonight. The risk here is obvious, but I think given the price tag I’d be willing to roster Strasburg in all formats.

Quick Breakdown: Strasburg is an elite play.

Batter Grind Down

Milwaukee

Rostering Strasburg isn’t the easiest pill to swallow, so I think rolling it back with a Milwaukee stack in tournaments is a solid hedge play. Strasburg has been essentially neutral from a splits perspective in his career, so Brewers from either side of the plate make sense. Ryan Braun, Mike Moustakas, Lorenzo Cain, Christian Yelich, Jesus Aguilar and Jonathan Schoop all come with all sorts of power, and Nationals Park is a nice place to hit. I wouldn’t go nuts with Brewers in cash games, especially if you’re playing Strasburg, but for GPPs Milwaukee is a strong stack that may come with low ownership.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

#	Player	Bats	xwOBA	ISO	HC%	BB%	K%	GB%	FD Pos.	FD Sal.	DK Pos.	DK Sal.	FDRFT Pos.	FDRFT Sal.
1	Lorenzo Cain	RIGHT	0.330	0.095	35.9%	11.9%	17.2%	61.1%	OF	$3,800	OF	$4,300	CF	$8,500
2	Christian Yelich	LEFT	0.405	0.242	48.4%	9.5%	24.1%	52.9%	OF	$4,600	OF	$5,800	CF	$10,600
3	Jesus Aguilar	RIGHT	0.384	0.275	45.2%	9.6%	27.0%	32.2%	1B	$3,900	1B	$4,300	1B	$8,100
4	Travis Shaw	LEFT	0.395	0.285	41.0%	12.6%	16.6%	33.3%	2B	$3,600	2B/3B	$4,200	3B	$8,200
5	Ryan Braun	RIGHT	0.328	0.170	34.1%	4.6%	21.8%	48.5%	OF	$2,900	1B/OF	$3,900	LF	$7,200
6	Mike Moustakas	LEFT	0.366	0.239	44.9%	9.3%	17.0%	30.8%	3B	$3,900	3B	$4,300	3B	$8,100
7	Jonathan Schoop	RIGHT	0.272	0.221	27.2%	2.0%	23.7%	45.3%	SS	$2,800	2B	$4,000	2B	$7,200
8	Erik Kratz	RIGHT	0.291	0.101	49.4%	1.7%	18.1%	44.3%	C	$2,200	C	$3,000	C	$5,700
9	Chase Anderson	RIGHT	0.107	0.000	0.0%	0.0%	48.3%	71.4%	P	$7,200	P	$7,400	P	$14,500
	Team Averages		0.320	0.181	36.2%	6.8%	23.8%	46.6%

Elite Plays – Christian Yelich, Mike Moustakas, Jesus Aguilar

Secondary Plays – Ryan Braun, Lorenzo Cain, Jonathan Schoop

Stackability – YELLOW / ORANGE

Washington

Chase Anderson is a reverse splits, fly ball right-hander that has allowed 28 dongs already this season. The Nats lineup isn’t as impressive as it was earlier in the season, but there are still some formidable bats here. Anthony Rendon, Ryan Zimmerman and Trea Turner are your best options if you’re looking to pick on Anderson’s reverse splits, while Bryce Harper and Juan Soto have plenty of home run upside from the left side. Adam Eaton is fine, but he’s almost never a guy on my radar in cash games. Don’t be afraid to roster some Nationals in this matchup in any format.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

#	Player	Bats	xwOBA	ISO	HC%	BB%	K%	GB%	FD Pos.	FD Sal.	DK Pos.	DK Sal.	FDRFT Pos.	FDRFT Sal.
1	Adam Eaton	LEFT	0.367	0.124	36.8%	9.2%	15.9%	44.6%	OF	$3,500	OF	$4,600	RF	$9,100
2	Trea Turner	RIGHT	0.313	0.134	30.1%	7.9%	19.9%	51.8%	SS	$3,400	SS	$4,700	IF/OF	$9,100
3	Bryce Harper	LEFT	0.392	0.274	42.4%	16.8%	25.0%	36.7%	OF	$4,300	OF	$5,000	RF	$9,600
4	Anthony Rendon	RIGHT	0.380	0.194	36.4%	8.0%	13.7%	36.5%	3B	$4,200	3B	$4,400	3B	$8,200
5	Juan Soto	LEFT	0.372	0.200	34.7%	18.7%	19.1%	51.8%	OF	$3,900	OF	$4,600	LF	$9,400
6	Ryan Zimmerman	RIGHT	0.386	0.230	42.0%	6.1%	20.0%	47.9%	1B	$3,300	1B	$4,200	1B	$8,000
7	Matt Wieters	SWITCH	0.302	0.142	32.8%	7.3%	13.9%	39.4%	C	$2,100	C	$3,300	C	$6,700
8	Wilmer Difo	SWITCH	0.292	0.131	22.3%	7.5%	16.5%	41.7%	2B	$2,500	2B/3B	$3,500	2B	$6,800
9	Stephen Strasburg	RIGHT	0.284	0.000	25.0%	3.3%	16.7%	68.4%	P	$9,400	P	$9,000	P	$17,700
	Team Averages		0.343	0.159	33.6%	9.4%	17.9%	46.5%

Elite Plays – Bryce Harper, Anthony Rendon, Juan Soto, Trea Turner

Secondary Plays – Ryan Zimmerman, Adam Eaton, Matt Wieters

Stackability – YELLOW / GREEN

Boston at Chicago White Sox – 7:10 PM ET

Stats	wOBA	xwOBA	HC%	HR/9	K%	GB%	Stats	wOBA	xwOBA	HC%	HR/9	K%	GB%
Boston								Chicago White Sox
			Eduardo Rodriguez							Carlos Rodon
			LEFT							LEFT
			Vegas Moneyline							Vegas Over/Under
			BOS-145							8.5
SP vs. Left (2016-17)	0.293	0.303	31.3%	1.29	35.2%	39.1%	SP vs. Left (2016-17)	0.234	0.306	28.3%	1.00	23.3%	50.0%
SP vs. Right (2016-17)	0.288	0.299	24.4%	0.97	22.2%	41.1%	SP vs. Right (2016-17)	0.268	0.302	27.1%	0.96	18.1%	37.8%

Pitcher Grind Down

	Stats	Starts	SIERA	ERA	K%	BB%	GB%	HC%	SC%	aFV	SwS%
Eduardo Rodriguez
	FanDuel				DraftKings				FantasyDraft
	Salary:			$8,600	Salary:			$8,200	Salary:		$16,100
	Salary Rank:			8 of 29	Salary Rank:			9 of 29	Salary Rank:		7 of 29
	2017	24	4.05	4.19	25.8%	8.6%	34.9%	30.8%	18.6%	93.3	11.7%
	2018	19	3.80	3.44	24.8%	7.2%	40.8%	25.5%	19.8%	93.3	11.1%

This will be E-Rod’s first start in over a month after suffering an ankle injury. He threw 76 pitches in his most recent rehab start, so I’d assume he might be capped tonight around 90. Rodriguez has a 24.8% strikeout rate this year alongside a very solid 3.80 SIERA. He can sometimes get himself into trouble with walks, which can lead to some short outings. Still, most other numbers check out. The hard-hit rate allowed of 25.5% is excellent, and the matchup tonight against the White Sox speaks for itself. Chicago has as 26.5% K-rate this season against lefties, which is the highest mark in baseball. Jose Abreu is also sidelined, which takes arguably their best bat out of the lineup. It would be nice if we got some clarity on a potential pitch count for Rodriguez, but if he tops out around 90 I think he’s an elite option tonight.

Quick Breakdown: Rodriguez is an elite option if he’s allowed to throw enough pitches.

	Stats	Starts	SIERA	ERA	K%	BB%	GB%	HC%	SC%	aFV	SwS%
Carlos Rodon
	FanDuel				DraftKings				FantasyDraft
	Salary:			$8,000	Salary:			$8,100	Salary:		$15,900
	Salary Rank:			14 of 29	Salary Rank:			10 of 29	Salary Rank:		9 of 29
	2017	12	4.21	4.15	25.6%	10.4%	44.1%	32.1%	12.8%	93.1	10.3%
	2018	14	4.81	2.70	19.1%	9.7%	40.0%	27.3%	17.6%	93.1	9.4%
	L14	3	5.26	3.00	16.5%	10.1%	37.5%	35.7%	12.5%	92.7	9.4%

Carlos Rodon has been in excellent form, as he hasn’t allowed more than 3 earned runs in a start since June 30. The southpaw showed plenty of strikeout upside in the past, but this season his strikeout rate is hovering around just 19%. I expect that to improve as we move forward, but maybe not tonight. His 2.70 ERA is impressive, but his 4.81 SIERA tells a different story. The 27.3% hard contact rate is excellent, but his walk rate is well over 9% and he’s a fly ball pitcher. His .194 BABIP allowed is also freakishly low. Rodon draws a terrible matchup with the Red Sox, who may have baseball’s best overall lineup. There are spots to play Rodon, but this isn’t one of them.

Quick Breakdown: Rodon is one of the worst plays on the board.

Batter Grind Down

Boston

Carlos Rodon has been getting lucky this season. He’s not a bad pitcher by any means, but he’s a lefty with a wide split and this is the Red Sox we’re talking about. Rodon has allowed a career .329 wOBA to RHBs, and they’ve accounted for 50 of the 56 homers he’s allowed all-time. J.D. Martinez, Mookie Betts, Xander Bogaerts and Steve Pearce are strong options against him. Eduardo Nunez and Ian Kinsler are elite values, too. Andrew Benintendi figures to go overlooked in a lefty-lefty matchup, but I don’t think Rodon will last all that long in this game. He’s also cheaper than usual, so I’m fine with Benintendi here. The Red Sox are one of the top offenses of the night, as usual.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. LH Pitching)

#	Player	Bats	xwOBA	ISO	HC%	BB%	K%	GB%	FD Pos.	FD Sal.	DK Pos.	DK Sal.	FDRFT Pos.	FDRFT Sal.
1	Mookie Betts	RIGHT	0.491	0.373	47.2%	16.7%	12.7%	37.1%	OF	$5,100	OF	$5,700	RF	$10,200
2	Andrew Benintendi	LEFT	0.289	0.176	25.3%	7.6%	25.2%	47.1%	OF	$4,000	OF	$4,200	LF	$8,200
3	Steve Pearce	RIGHT	0.469	0.269	37.5%	11.1%	15.6%	39.1%	1B	$3,400	1B/OF	$4,100	IF/OF	$8,500
4	J.D. Martinez	RIGHT	0.403	0.211	44.9%	7.6%	26.3%	46.2%	OF	$4,900	OF	$5,600	RF	$10,300
5	Xander Bogaerts	RIGHT	0.368	0.138	40.9%	16.3%	20.2%	36.4%	SS	$3,800	SS	$4,500	SS	$8,900
6	Eduardo Nunez	RIGHT	0.328	0.071	28.9%	5.0%	14.2%	47.9%	3B	$2,600	2B/3B	$3,400	2B	$6,800
7	Ian Kinsler	RIGHT	0.271	0.064	28.1%	5.2%	12.1%	33.3%	2B	$2,800	2B	$3,800	2B	$7,500
8	Sandy Leon	SWITCH	0.307	0.088	31.8%	13.4%	20.9%	38.6%	C	$2,000	C	$2,700	C	$5,700
9	Jackie Bradley	LEFT	0.270	0.074	31.6%	3.9%	35.9%	64.9%	OF	$2,700	OF	$3,700	CF	$7,200
	Team Averages		0.355	0.163	35.1%	9.6%	20.3%	43.4%

Elite Plays – J.D. Martinez, Mookie Betts, Xander Bogaerts, Steve Pearce, Eduardo Nunez

Secondary Plays – Ian Kinsler, Andrew Benintendi, Sandy Leon

Stackability – GREEN

Chicago White Sox

I’m a believer in the skills of Eduardo Rodriguez, and I’m certainly not a believer in the White Sox’ offense. Rodriguez has also shown some reverse splits in his career, which doesn’t make the power righties on the White Sox side look very appealing. Kevan Smith is a potential punt catcher, while Avisail Garcia is still too cheap given his talent level. Neither is an elite play, and I doubt fading the White Sox in this spot will kill you on this slate.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. LH Pitching)

#	Player	Bats	xwOBA	ISO	HC%	BB%	K%	GB%	FD Pos.	FD Sal.	DK Pos.	DK Sal.	FDRFT Pos.	FDRFT Sal.
1	Tim Anderson	RIGHT	0.315	0.171	34.0%	5.1%	20.3%	41.7%	SS	$2,600	SS	$4,000	SS	$7,200
2	Jose Rondon	RIGHT	0.259	0.154	35.3%	7.1%	32.1%	43.8%	SS	$2,800	3B/SS	$3,300	SS	$6,800
3	Avisail Garcia	RIGHT	0.377	0.246	55.3%	4.4%	26.5%	57.4%	OF	$2,700	OF	$3,800	RF	$7,400
4	Kevan Smith	RIGHT	0.327	0.161	23.3%	5.7%	5.7%	73.3%	C	$2,000	C	$2,800	C	$5,900
5	Matt Davidson	RIGHT	0.375	0.271	48.2%	13.1%	29.3%	44.6%	1B	$2,800	1B/3B	$3,700	3B	$7,500
6	Yoan Moncada	SWITCH	0.239	0.113	33.8%	9.9%	33.6%	50.7%	2B	$3,200	2B	$3,900	2B	$7,600
7	Ryan LaMarre	RIGHT	0.307	0.102	38.9%	3.8%	28.3%	42.9%	OF	$2,300	OF	$3,300	CF	$6,400
8	Yolmer Sanchez	SWITCH	0.268	0.038	25.3%	8.5%	26.5%	58.9%	3B	$3,000	3B	$3,600	3B	$7,300
9	Adam Engel	RIGHT	0.233	0.094	24.0%	2.9%	22.5%	40.0%	OF	$2,000	OF	$3,200	CF	$6,300
	Team Averages		0.300	0.150	35.3%	6.7%	25.0%	50.4%

Elite Plays – None

Secondary Plays – Avisail Garcia, Kevan Smith

Stackability – RED

Note: Unless noted, all statistics in the Grind Down are from the 2018 season.

MLB Grind Down: Saturday, September 1st

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Stackability Rating System:

Implied Run Totals

Ballpark Ratings

Detroit at NY Yankees – 4:05 PM ET

Pitcher Grind Down

Batter Grind Down

Detroit

NY Yankees

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. LH Pitching)

NY Mets at San Francisco – 4:05 PM ET

Pitcher Grind Down

Batter Grind Down

NY Mets

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. LH Pitching)

San Francisco

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. LH Pitching)

Chicago Cubs at Philadelphia – 7:05 PM ET

Pitcher Grind Down

Batter Grind Down

Chicago Cubs

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

Philadelphia

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

Milwaukee at Washington – 7:05 PM ET

Pitcher Grind Down

Batter Grind Down

Milwaukee

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

Washington

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

Boston at Chicago White Sox – 7:10 PM ET

Pitcher Grind Down

Batter Grind Down

Boston

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. LH Pitching)

Chicago White Sox

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. LH Pitching)

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