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MLB Grind Down: Sunday, July 9th

by Seth Yates (sethayates) Last Updated 2017-07-10 03:07:03

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The RotoGrinders MLB Grind Down will give you an in-depth analysis into the upcoming MLB schedule. This article will break down the numbers for every single game and give you analysis on which trends you can exploit. While matchups are a major factor in daily fantasy baseball, there are plenty of other factors to consider such as injuries, weather, and salaries.

The analysis should point you in the right direction, but it is still up to you to decipher the information and make your own selections. No sport has more variance than baseball. The best choice is not always the right choice but following the trends will win you money over time.

Note: As always, if you want to try a new DFS site, be sure to click through a RotoGrinders link and use our DraftKings promo code, FanDuel promo code, and FantasyDraft promo code to receive the best perks in the industry.

Editor’s Note: Jameson Taillon has been scratched for today. Chad Kuhl will start instead.

Stackability Rating System:

GREEN – A viable full stack in cash games and GPPs.
YELLOW – A viable mini-stack in cash games and full stack in GPPs.
ORANGE – A viable stack in large field GPPs.
RED – Not a recommended stack for cash games or GPPs.

Milwaukee at NY Yankees – 1:05 PM ET

Milwaukee NY Yankees
milwaukeemlb Jimmy Nelson nyyankeesmlb Masahiro Tanaka
RIGHT RIGHT
Vegas Moneyline Vegas Over/Under
NYY-153 9.5
Stats wOBA xwOBA HC% BB% K% GB% Stats wOBA xwOBA HC% BB% K% GB%
SP vs. Left (2016-17) 0.327 0.326 36.8% 11.1% 21.6% 44.8% SP vs. Left (2016-17) 0.299 0.307 32.2% 4.3% 20.8% 51.7%
SP vs. Right (2016-17) 0.339 0.303 28.4% 7.4% 18.8% 53.5% SP vs. Right (2016-17) 0.309 0.311 32.9% 5.8% 21.7% 45.7%

Pitcher Grind Down

Jimmy Nelson
jimmy-nelson-300x200 FanDuel DraftKings FantasyDraft
Salary: $9,300 Salary: $9,500 Salary: $18,400
Salary Rank: 8 of 30 Salary Rank: 8 of 30 Salary Rank: 7 of 30
Stats Starts SIERA ERA K% BB% GB% HC% SC%
2016 32 4.92 4.62 17.4% 10.7% 49.4% 32.6% 21.3%
2017 16 3.54 3.43 25.7% 6.2% 49.8% 31.5% 21.9%

Welcome to the Sunday MLB Grind Down. We have 15 games on the schedule today on this final day before the MLB All-Star Break. We have two slates today with the 10-game afternoon slate being considered the main one. If you’re planning to take the week off from DFS, we’ll meet back up Thursday for more MLB action. If you’re planning to play some of the other DFS options, we’ll have you covered there. Stay tuned for more information.

We’ll kick things off with Jimmy Nelson against the Yankees. He owns a 3.43 ERA, 25.7% K rate and 6.2% BB rate this season. Nelson has been pitching well behind a 49.3% ground ball rate. If there is one place Nelson still struggles though it is with LH hitters. They own a 34.4% fly ball rate and a 38.2% hard hit rate this season. Nelson has an extremely difficult matchup today against a Yankees offense that owns a 22.4% K rate, .351 wOBA and 118 wRC+ against RH pitching.

Quick Breakdown: Nelson is best avoided in this matchup as the Yankees are one of the best offenses in baseball against RH pitching.

Masahiro Tanaka
masahiro-tanaka-300x200 FanDuel DraftKings FantasyDraft
Salary: $9,000 Salary: $9,800 Salary: $18,900
Salary Rank: 9 of 30 Salary Rank: 6 of 30 Salary Rank: 5 of 30
Stats Starts SIERA ERA K% BB% GB% HC% SC%
2016 31 3.79 3.07 20.5% 4.5% 48.2% 32.5% 18.5%
2017 16 3.90 5.56 22.7% 6.3% 49.3% 32.9% 18.1%

I’m not sure how he does it, but Masahiro Tanaka always seems to sucker me back in. He owns a 5.56 ERA, 22.7% K rate and 6.3% BB rate. He has a 49.3% ground ball rate. If you look at his numbers, they don’t back up the idea that he truly is an ace. They are actually pretty similar to Jimmy Nelson who almost never gets the ace label. Tanaka owns a .299 wOBA vs. LH and .309 wOBA vs. RH pitching over the past two seasons. He draws a matchup with the strikeout-prone Brewers who own a 24.7% K rate, .331 wOBA and 98 wRC+ against RH pitching. This offense has the ability to make a pitcher look great but also the power to make one pay.

Quick Breakdown: As much as I hate to do this, Tanaka is best suited for tournaments today. That’s not to say that you can’t play him in cash games it’s just that if you do you’re paying for some name value that really doesn’t exist. There’s more risk here than you want in cash games even though no one denies the upside.

Batter Grind Down

Milwaukee

If you want to attack Tanaka, the way to do it is with Brewers LH power. That of course means Eric Thames who owns a .387 wOBA and Travis Shaw who owns a .352 wOBA vs. RH pitching. I’m more likely to simply hunt for a home run than I am to go with a Brewers contrarian stack. Shaw and Thames are about as deep as I would want to get here.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

# Player Bats wOBA xwOBA ISO HC% BB% K% GB% FD Pos. FD Sal. DK Pos. DK Sal. FDRFT Pos. FDRFT Sal.
1 Jonathan Villar SWITCH 0.326 0.300 0.149 35.4% 10.6% 26.1% 60.9% 2B $3,100 2B $3,600 2B $7,200
2 Eric Thames LEFT 0.387 0.351 0.289 42.4% 17.5% 24.8% 38.9% 1B $3,600 1B/OF $4,300 1B $8,400
3 Jesus Aguilar RIGHT 0.336 0.323 0.250 38.6% 6.1% 29.8% 45.7% 1B $2,300 1B $3,800 1B $7,600
4 Travis Shaw LEFT 0.352 0.341 0.213 36.6% 9.4% 22.5% 39.1% 3B $3,900 3B $4,000 3B $7,800
5 Domingo Santana RIGHT 0.342 0.333 0.183 35.5% 11.4% 31.8% 47.4% OF $3,800 OF $4,300 RF $8,400
6 Hernan Perez RIGHT 0.312 0.294 0.163 30.7% 4.6% 18.0% 48.1% OF $2,900 3B/OF $3,700 IF/OF $7,200
7 Stephen Vogt LEFT 0.317 0.323 0.171 28.5% 7.8% 15.3% 30.5% C $2,500 C $3,300 C $6,600
8 Keon Broxton RIGHT 0.322 0.297 0.206 37.0% 9.8% 37.5% 42.5% OF $2,900 OF $3,700 CF $7,200
9 Orlando Arcia RIGHT 0.291 0.258 0.139 26.8% 4.7% 20.7% 53.9% SS $2,800 SS $3,200 SS $6,400

Elite Plays – None

Secondary Plays – Eric Thames and Travis Shaw

Stackability – ORANGE – A viable stack in large field GPPs.

NY Yankees

The Yankees are interesting here against Jimmy Nelson. Especially the Yankees LH hitters as Nelson is allowing a 34.4% fly ball rate and 38.2% hard contact rate. Brett Gardner is my favorite option here as he owns a .347 wOBA vs. RH pitching. You can definitely play Aaron Judge and Gary Sanchez against any RH pitcher as well as they each own a wOBA over .420. A full Yankees stack is in play in tournaments as well, I would fill it out with Didi Gregorius and Jacoby Ellsbury

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

# Player Bats wOBA xwOBA ISO HC% BB% K% GB% FD Pos. FD Sal. DK Pos. DK Sal. FDRFT Pos. FDRFT Sal.
1 Brett Gardner LEFT 0.347 0.327 0.153 30.9% 12.1% 17.1% 47.3% OF $3,500 OF $4,300 LF $8,400
2 Aaron Judge RIGHT 0.420 0.414 0.323 49.2% 13.5% 32.6% 37.6% OF $4,900 OF $5,600 RF $10,800
3 Gary Sanchez RIGHT 0.427 0.386 0.304 38.8% 8.6% 22.6% 48.2% C $3,500 C $4,900 C $9,600
4 Didi Gregorius LEFT 0.318 0.263 0.189 24.7% 2.9% 15.1% 41.6% SS $3,100 SS $3,900 SS $7,800
5 Chase Headley SWITCH 0.328 0.325 0.149 31.3% 12.1% 25.0% 44.1% 3B $2,900 3B $3,300 3B $6,600
6 Jacoby Ellsbury LEFT 0.331 0.317 0.133 26.4% 9.8% 12.3% 48.1% OF $3,100 OF $3,500 CF $6,800
7 Ji-Man Choi LEFT 0.270 0.303 0.174 30.1% 12.0% 21.6% 47.6% 1B $2,200 1B/OF $2,900 IF/OF $5,700
8 Clint Frazier RIGHT 0.411 0.256 0.333 0.0% 0.0% 33.3% 0.0% OF $2,200 OF $3,100 CF $6,000
9 Tyler Wade LEFT 0.318 0.368 0.111 40.0% 18.2% 36.4% 20.0% OF $2,100 SS $2,700 SS $5,400

Elite Plays – Brett Gardner

Secondary Plays – Gary Sanchez and Aaron Judge

Stackability – YELLOW – A viable mini-stack in cash games and full stack in GPPs.

Houston at Toronto – 1:07 PM ET

Houston Toronto
houstonmlb Brad Peacock torontomlb J.A. Happ
RIGHT LEFT
Vegas Moneyline Vegas Over/Under
TOR-113 9.5
Stats wOBA xwOBA HC% BB% K% GB% Stats wOBA xwOBA HC% BB% K% GB%
SP vs. Left (2016-17) 0.295 0.298 33.3% 14.2% 29.0% 35.6% SP vs. Left (2016-17) 0.296 0.336 34.5% 6.1% 17.9% 46.9%
SP vs. Right (2016-17) 0.257 0.253 24.8% 12.2% 31.1% 47.5% SP vs. Right (2016-17) 0.292 0.312 31.1% 7.0% 21.9% 41.9%

Pitcher Grind Down

Brad Peacock
brad-peacock-300x200 FanDuel DraftKings FantasyDraft
Salary: $8,100 Salary: $9,400 Salary: $18,300
Salary Rank: 16 of 30 Salary Rank: 9 of 30 Salary Rank: 8 of 30
Stats Starts SIERA ERA K% BB% GB% HC% SC%
2016 5 4.55 3.69 22.1% 11.0% 41.2% 28.2% 10.6%
2017 7 3.66 2.72 35.1% 14.4% 42.7% 29.1% 27.2%

Brad Peacock owns a 2.72 ERA, 35.1% K rate and 14.4% BB rate through seven starts this season. He’s allowed a wOBA of .295 vs. LH and .257 vs. RH hitters over the past two seasons. The sites have seemingly priced in Peacock’s K rate and ERA which makes him somewhat of a tough sell. He’ll take on a Blue Jays offense that owns a 20.7% K rate, .314 wOBA and 92 wRC+ against RH pitching. The biggest problem with Peacock though is trusting someone with a 14.4% BB rate.

Quick Breakdown: The combination of matchup of price have me looking elsewhere today. Peacock is a low end tournament option today because of his strikeout ability but he gets a sizable matchup downgrade.

J.A. Happ
j-a-happ-300x200 FanDuel DraftKings FantasyDraft
Salary: $8,000 Salary: $7,000 Salary: $14,000
Salary Rank: 18 of 30 Salary Rank: 19 of 30 Salary Rank: 17 of 30
Stats Starts SIERA ERA K% BB% GB% HC% SC%
2016 32 4.28 3.18 20.5% 7.5% 42.5% 31.6% 17.8%
2017 9 3.65 3.71 23.6% 4.2% 44.5% 32.7% 17.3%

J.A. Happ continues to chug along with a 3.71 ERA, 23.6% K rate and 4.2% BB rate through nine starts. He’s shown good control with low walks and a 44.5% ground ball rate. He’s been effective the last two seasons allowing a .296 wOBA vs. LH and ..292 wOBA vs. RH hitters. The big problem here is the matchup. The Astros owns a 17.1% K rate, .347 wOBA and 119 wRC+ against LH pitching. They are almost always a matchup to avoid with opposing pitching.

Quick Breakdown: J.A. Happ can safely be avoided in all formats today.

Batter Grind Down

Houston

The Astros against Happ isn’t the ideal hitting situation on this slate as Happ does own a .296 wOBA vs. LH and .292 wOBA vs. RH hitters. We can still take a shot on some Astros as they have several options that hit LH pitching well. That list starts with George Springer who owns a .416 wOBA and .310 ISO vs. LH pitching. Carlos Correa, Evan Gattis, Josh Reddick and Jose Altuve also deserve your consider but they are more of secondary options than elite plays.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. LH Pitching)

# Player Bats wOBA xwOBA ISO HC% BB% K% GB% FD Pos. FD Sal. DK Pos. DK Sal. FDRFT Pos. FDRFT Sal.
1 George Springer RIGHT 0.416 0.416 0.310 39.6% 12.8% 21.1% 43.4% OF $4,500 OF $5,500 RF $10,800
2 Jose Altuve RIGHT 0.378 0.359 0.189 34.0% 10.9% 13.2% 44.8% 2B $4,300 2B $5,200 2B $10,000
3 Carlos Correa RIGHT 0.344 0.392 0.167 41.2% 12.9% 18.5% 48.8% SS $4,300 SS $5,100 SS $10,000
4 Evan Gattis RIGHT 0.353 0.363 0.257 30.5% 7.1% 18.2% 38.9% C $2,800 C $4,200 C $8,000
5 Carlos Beltran SWITCH 0.362 0.335 0.201 39.4% 6.0% 19.8% 31.2% OF $3,100 OF $3,500 RF $6,900
6 Marwin Gonzalez SWITCH 0.324 0.277 0.187 28.4% 6.3% 24.7% 49.7% OF $3,600 3B/OF $4,600 1B $8,800
7 Yuli Gurriel RIGHT 0.240 0.288 0.112 37.5% 2.5% 10.8% 46.2% 1B $3,500 1B $3,700 1B $7,200
8 Alex Bregman RIGHT 0.345 0.321 0.176 29.8% 10.9% 19.7% 27.2% 3B $3,200 3B $3,900 3B $7,600
9 Jake Marisnick RIGHT 0.299 0.293 0.160 29.3% 7.3% 27.0% 36.4% OF $2,400 OF $2,800 CF $5,400

Elite Plays – George Springer

Secondary Plays – Josh Reddick and Carlos Correa

Stackability – ORANGE – A viable stack in large field GPPs.

Toronto

The Blue Jays against Brad Peacock is also spot more suited for tournaments or one-off plays than a full stack. Peacock has a wOBA under .300 against both H and RH batters the past two seasons. Jose Bautista would be the primary option here as he owns a .358 wOBA vs. RH pitching. I also don’t mind Russell Martin where he is cheap. He owns a .331 wOBA vs. RH pitching.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

# Player Bats wOBA xwOBA ISO HC% BB% K% GB% FD Pos. FD Sal. DK Pos. DK Sal. FDRFT Pos. FDRFT Sal.
1 Jose Bautista RIGHT 0.358 0.362 0.214 38.0% 15.8% 21.6% 36.1% OF $3,900 OF $3,800 RF $7,500
2 Russell Martin RIGHT 0.331 0.327 0.167 30.4% 12.8% 25.9% 49.0% C $2,900 C $3,700 C $7,200
3 Josh Donaldson RIGHT 0.394 0.394 0.265 40.2% 14.3% 19.2% 39.9% 3B $3,500 3B $3,300 3B $6,400
4 Justin Smoak SWITCH 0.348 0.370 0.244 40.4% 11.3% 29.7% 30.2% 1B $3,500 1B $4,500 1B $8,700
5 Kendrys Morales SWITCH 0.313 0.385 0.194 40.7% 8.1% 20.4% 48.9% 1B $3,500 1B $4,000 1B $7,600
6 Steve Pearce RIGHT 0.340 0.342 0.160 30.9% 8.7% 17.8% 45.9% OF $2,700 OF $2,900 1B $5,600
7 Troy Tulowitzki RIGHT 0.322 0.344 0.184 33.3% 7.4% 17.2% 41.3% SS $2,900 SS $3,100 SS $6,000
8 Kevin Pillar RIGHT 0.283 0.294 0.111 26.7% 5.1% 15.7% 47.4% OF $2,800 OF $3,300 CF $6,400
9 Ryan Goins LEFT 0.265 0.272 0.146 30.3% 7.1% 21.4% 47.3% 2B $2,200 2B/SS $2,300 2B $4,500

Elite Plays – None

Secondary Plays – Jose Bautista and Russell Martin

Stackability – ORANGE – A viable stack in large field GPPs.

Boston at Tampa Bay – 1:10 PM ET

Boston Tampa Bay
bostonmlb David Price tampabaymlb Chris Archer
LEFT RIGHT
Vegas Moneyline Vegas Over/Under
TB -101 8.0
Stats wOBA xwOBA HC% BB% K% GB% Stats wOBA xwOBA HC% BB% K% GB%
SP vs. Left (2016-17) 0.314 0.280 30.7% 3.4% 19.6% 48.5% SP vs. Left (2016-17) 0.311 0.302 36.9% 8.4% 28.2% 45.4%
SP vs. Right (2016-17) 0.309 0.312 36.3% 6.5% 24.6% 41.3% SP vs. Right (2016-17) 0.293 0.298 33.7% 7.0% 27.6% 46.5%

Pitcher Grind Down

David Price
david-price-300x200 FanDuel DraftKings FantasyDraft
Salary: $9,500 Salary: $9,600 Salary: $18,600
Salary Rank: 6 of 30 Salary Rank: 7 of 30 Salary Rank: 6 of 30
Stats Starts SIERA ERA K% BB% GB% HC% SC%
2016 35 3.60 3.99 24.0% 5.3% 43.7% 34.8% 18.6%
2017 7 4.61 4.61 20.3% 8.5% 39.8% 35.0% 19.5%

In David Price we have another “Ace” pitching today that really may not be an ace. He owns a 4.61 ERA, 20.3% K rate and 8.5% BB rate this season. Price is also allowing 35% hard contact which really isn’t even that abnormal for him. He’s allowed a .314 wOBA vs. LH and .309 wOB vs. RH over the past two seasons. Similar to Tanaka above, Price draws a matchup with a strikeout-prone Rays team. They own a 26.8% K rate, .307 wOBA and 92 wRC+ vs. LH pitching.

Quick Breakdown: At his current salary, Price is best suited for tournaments. The strikeouts really haven’t been there this season at just 20.3% but the Rays can certainly help with a 26.8% K rate which is the second-worst.

Chris Archer
chris-archer-300x200 FanDuel DraftKings FantasyDraft
Salary: $9,900 Salary: $10,700 Salary: $20,700
Salary Rank: 4 of 30 Salary Rank: 4 of 30 Salary Rank: 3 of 30
Stats Starts SIERA ERA K% BB% GB% HC% SC%
2016 33 3.50 4.02 27.4% 7.9% 47.8% 32.8% 18.0%
2017 17 3.48 3.92 28.6% 7.2% 42.7% 39.7% 16.2%

There are definitely quite a few big names pitching today. Chris Archer owns a .392 ERA, 28.6% K rate and 7.2% BB rate through 17 starts this season. He’s allowing a lot more hard contact than we would ideally want to see at 39.2%. Over the past two seasons, he’s allowing a .311 wOBA vs. LH and .293 vs. RH hitting. He’ll take on a Red Sox offense that owns a 18.5% K rate, .322 wOBA and 94 wRC+ vs. RH pitching.

Quick Breakdown: You somewhat have your pick today of which ace you want to use. In cash games, I’m somewhat likely to pay down at pitcher so that I can fit more bats from the game at Coors Field. I don’t mind Chris Archer in cash games though if you have the available salary to make it work.

Batter Grind Down

Boston

This game is not the best place to look for bats on either side. The over/under is eight runs which I suppose is a healthy total for a Price/Archer matchup. I don’t have a lot of interest in attacking Archer as he owns a .311 wOBA vs. LH and .293 vs. RH pitching. It is worth noting that you could find a home run though as Archer is allowing 39.7% hard contact. I guess that leaves me on Mookie Betts who owns a .378 wOBA and .203 ISO vs. RH pitching but I certainly don’t love it.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

# Player Bats wOBA xwOBA ISO HC% BB% K% GB% FD Pos. FD Sal. DK Pos. DK Sal. FDRFT Pos. FDRFT Sal.
1 Mookie Betts RIGHT 0.378 0.336 0.205 34.1% 8.3% 10.3% 42.3% OF $4,200 OF $4,600 RF $9,000
2 Dustin Pedroia RIGHT 0.346 0.325 0.117 31.4% 8.0% 9.4% 49.8% 2B $3,500 2B $3,600 2B $7,200
3 Xander Bogaerts RIGHT 0.346 0.293 0.149 31.0% 7.3% 17.4% 47.5% SS $3,400 SS $3,900 SS $7,600
4 Mitch Moreland LEFT 0.320 0.366 0.203 40.0% 8.4% 23.3% 39.8% 1B $3,000 1B $3,300 1B $6,400
5 Andrew Benintendi LEFT 0.356 0.345 0.192 38.0% 9.7% 15.0% 34.6% OF $3,700 OF $4,300 LF $8,400
6 Hanley Ramirez RIGHT 0.342 0.345 0.187 36.9% 9.3% 19.5% 48.0% 1B $3,200 1B $3,700 IF/OF $7,200
7 Jackie Bradley Jr. LEFT 0.362 0.366 0.238 38.3% 11.0% 20.9% 44.2% OF $3,300 OF $3,700 CF $7,200
8 Christian Vazquez RIGHT 0.262 0.251 0.070 28.5% 4.0% 21.5% 57.3% C $2,500 C $2,700 C $5,400
9 Tzu-Wei Lin LEFT 0.188 0.205 0.000 22.2% 7.7% 23.1% 66.7% SS $2,300 3B/SS $2,100 SS $4,200

Elite Plays – None

Secondary Plays – Mookie Betts

Stackability – RED – Not a recommended stack for cash games or GPPs.

Tampa Bay

The Rays don’t really jump out as great options against David Price. He odes have the same issue as Archer though with a 35% hard contact rate. The main issue here is that the Rays do not hit LH pitching well at all. The one name that stands out is Wilson Ramos. If he’s in the lineup, he owns a .407 wOBA and .290 ISO vs. LH pitching.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. LH Pitching)

# Player Bats wOBA xwOBA ISO HC% BB% K% GB% FD Pos. FD Sal. DK Pos. DK Sal. FDRFT Pos. FDRFT Sal.
1 Steve Souza RIGHT 0.295 0.288 0.123 33.6% 8.1% 32.9% 42.0% OF $3,300 OF $4,300 RF $8,400
2 Corey Dickerson LEFT 0.320 0.287 0.140 33.1% 3.7% 27.4% 50.7% OF $3,600 OF $3,700 LF $7,200
3 Evan Longoria RIGHT 0.298 0.340 0.193 36.9% 9.9% 21.4% 37.4% 3B $3,200 3B $3,500 3B $6,800
4 Logan Morrison LEFT 0.336 0.322 0.183 28.9% 12.4% 22.9% 45.4% 1B $3,800 1B $4,500 1B $8,700
5 Wilson Ramos RIGHT 0.407 0.424 0.290 34.4% 7.6% 11.0% 53.1% C $2,800 C $3,500 C $6,800
6 Brad Miller LEFT 0.298 0.293 0.163 34.3% 9.4% 26.5% 45.7% 2B $2,900 2B $3,200 SS $6,300
7 Trevor Plouffe RIGHT 0.330 0.347 0.162 38.8% 9.5% 23.1% 46.9% 2B $2,000 3B $3,100 3B $6,000
8 Mallex Smith LEFT 0.215 0.176 0.056 18.4% 7.5% 30.0% 63.9% OF $3,000 OF $3,800 CF $7,500
9 Adeiny Hechavarria RIGHT 0.275 0.284 0.112 39.4% 8.0% 16.7% 46.5% SS $2,000 SS $2,400 SS $4,800

Elite Plays – None

Secondary Plays – RED – Not a recommended stack for cash games or GPPs.

Stackability – RED – Not a recommended stack for cash games or GPPs.

Pittsburgh at Chicago Cubs – 1:10 PM ET

Editor’s Note: Jameson Taillon has been scratched for today. Chad Kuhl will start instead.

Pittsburgh Chicago Cubs
pittsburghmlb Jameson Taillon cubsmlb Jon Lester
RIGHT LEFT
Vegas Moneyline Vegas Over/Under
CHC-160
Stats wOBA xwOBA HC% BB% K% GB% Stats wOBA xwOBA HC% BB% K% GB%
SP vs. Left (2016-17) 0.309 0.307 29.2% 6.8% 16.5% 53.3% SP vs. Left (2016-17) 0.233 0.258 28.8% 4.0% 29.0% 54.7%
SP vs. Right (2016-17) 0.308 0.285 33.8% 4.4% 24.1% 51.9% SP vs. Right (2016-17) 0.291 0.285 25.9% 7.9% 23.5% 45.5%

Pitcher Grind Down

Jameson Taillon
jameson-taillon-300x200 FanDuel DraftKings FantasyDraft
Salary: $8,800 Salary: $8,300 Salary: $16,200
Salary Rank: 12 of 30 Salary Rank: 12 of 30 Salary Rank: 10 of 30
Stats Starts SIERA ERA K% BB% GB% HC% SC%
2016 18 3.61 3.38 20.3% 4.1% 52.4% 33.2% 17.3%
2017 10 4.18 2.97 20.5% 8.2% 53.0% 28.1% 25.2%

Jameson Taillon owns a 2.97 ERA, 20.5% K rate and 8.2% BB rate on the season. He’s doing it with an elite 53% ground ball rate. The issue with Taillon is the strikeouts aren’t always there, possibly by design. He owns a .309 wOBA and 16.5% K rate vs. LH compared to .308 wOBA vs. RH and 24.1% K rate vs. RH pitching. He’ll take on a Cubs offense that owns a 22.6% K rate, .311 wOBA and 89 wRC+ vs. RH pitching.

Quick Breakdown: While the Cubs have struggled a bit on offense this season, this isn’t necessarily the place I want too go in cash games. I have no doubt that Taillon can limit damage with ground balls. I would just like to see more upside at this price. Taillon is a low end SP2

Jon Lester
jon-lester-300x200 FanDuel DraftKings FantasyDraft
Salary: $10,400 Salary: $9,000 Salary: $17,400
Salary Rank: 3 of 30 Salary Rank: 10 of 30 Salary Rank: 9 of 30
Stats Starts SIERA ERA K% BB% GB% HC% SC%
2016 32 3.61 2.44 24.8% 6.5% 46.9% 26.8% 18.9%
2017 17 3.87 3.69 24.8% 7.9% 48.7% 26.0% 23.8%

Through 17 starts, Jon Lester owns a 3.69 ERA, 24.8% K rate and 7.9% BB rate. He’s generating ground balls at 48.2% and allowing just 26% hard contact. He’s been elite against LH hitters with a .233 wOBA over the last two seasons while allowing a .291 wOBA vs. RH. He’ll face a Pirates offense that owns a 20.3% K rate, .298 wOBA and 83 wRC+ against LH pitching.

Quick Breakdown: If you want to pay up for safety, Jon Lester is your guy today. The Pirates don’t strikeout often at 20.3% but barely feature any power. Lester is an excellent play on DK at $9,000 and definitely workable at $10,400 on FD though he’ll likely cost you some Coors Field exposure there.

Batter Grind Down

Pittsburgh

As II said above, Lester has been elite against LH hitters with a .233 wOBA over the last two seasons while allowing a .291 wOBA vs. RH hitters. The Pirates honestly don’t have much to offer against Lester. Josh Harrison grades out as the top option as he owns a .362 woBA vs. LH pitching. You could try to make the case for Andrew McCutchen but his price is high enough that it really can’t be justified.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. LH Pitching)

# Player Bats wOBA xwOBA ISO HC% BB% K% GB% FD Pos. FD Sal. DK Pos. DK Sal. FDRFT Pos. FDRFT Sal.
1 Josh Harrison RIGHT 0.362 0.299 0.187 34.1% 5.2% 15.6% 37.3% 2B $2,600 2B/3B $3,800 2B $7,600
2 Jose Osuna RIGHT 0.291 0.263 0.176 23.3% 5.6% 14.8% 51.2% OF $2,400 1B/OF $2,900 IF/OF $5,700
3 Andrew McCutchen RIGHT 0.380 0.380 0.256 38.5% 14.7% 16.8% 37.0% OF $4,000 OF $4,700 RF $9,300
4 David Freese RIGHT 0.391 0.364 0.169 43.2% 15.4% 25.9% 62.1% 3B $2,600 3B $2,900 3B $5,600
5 Josh Bell SWITCH 0.307 0.327 0.205 28.4% 11.5% 17.7% 55.2% 1B $3,300 1B $3,700 IF/OF $7,200
6 Gregory Polanco LEFT 0.303 0.293 0.160 26.3% 8.3% 25.6% 45.8% OF $3,100 OF $3,500 RF $6,800
7 Chris Stewart RIGHT 0.301 0.311 0.094 34.6% 11.1% 16.7% 42.3% C $2,000 C $2,000 C $3,900
8 Jordy Mercer RIGHT 0.312 0.331 0.148 28.9% 13.2% 14.8% 46.6% SS $2,600 SS $3,100 SS $6,000
9 Jameson Taillon RIGHT 0.110 0.113 0.000 0.0% 0.0% 33.3% 75.0% P $8,800 P $8,300 P $16,200

Elite Plays – None

Secondary Plays – Josh Harrison

Stackability – RED – Not a recommended stack for cash games or GPPs.

Chicago Cubs

The Cubs managed to hit two home runs yesterday against Ivan Nova but it was really the only offense they saw all day. They face another ground ball pitcher today in Jameson Taillon and the prospects don’t look much better. You could make a case for Kris Bryant almost any day but the issue is that you could have a Coors Field bat fr almost the same price. I think the Cubs are best avoided in this spot.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

# Player Bats wOBA xwOBA ISO HC% BB% K% GB% FD Pos. FD Sal. DK Pos. DK Sal. FDRFT Pos. FDRFT Sal.
1 Ben Zobrist SWITCH 0.348 0.366 0.176 33.8% 15.2% 11.7% 47.0% OF $2,700 2B/OF $3,800 IF/OF $7,600
2 Kris Bryant RIGHT 0.377 0.347 0.238 36.2% 10.5% 22.8% 31.3% 3B $3,800 3B $4,800 IF/OF $9,300
3 Anthony Rizzo LEFT 0.386 0.381 0.249 35.7% 12.7% 15.4% 36.2% 1B $4,200 1B $4,800 1B $9,300
4 Ian Happ SWITCH 0.345 0.339 0.271 35.1% 9.8% 31.6% 43.4% OF $3,400 2B/OF $4,600 IF/OF $8,800
5 Willson Contreras RIGHT 0.341 0.310 0.205 34.1% 8.9% 27.4% 52.8% C $3,500 C $4,300 IF/OF $8,400
6 Kyle Schwarber LEFT 0.299 0.355 0.232 35.0% 12.2% 27.8% 41.2% OF $2,300 OF $3,000 IF/OF $6,000
7 Jason Heyward LEFT 0.296 0.312 0.112 26.7% 8.2% 13.6% 46.4% OF $2,500 OF $3,300 RF $6,400
8 Addison Russell RIGHT 0.301 0.295 0.162 28.5% 7.3% 22.4% 43.3% SS $2,500 SS $3,300 SS $6,600
9 Jon Lester LEFT 0.137 0.231 0.044 26.8% 4.9% 25.9% 61.7% P $10,400 P $9,000 P $17,400

Elite Plays – None

Secondary Plays – None

Stackability – RED – Not a recommended stack for cash games or GPPs.

San Diego at Philadelphia – 1:35 PM ET

San Diego Philadelphia
sandiegomlb Trevor Cahill philadelphiamlb Jerad Eickhoff
RIGHT RIGHT
Vegas Moneyline Vegas Over/Under
PHI-100 9.0
Stats wOBA xwOBA HC% BB% K% GB% Stats wOBA xwOBA HC% BB% K% GB%
SP vs. Left (2016-17) 0.260 0.313 32.8% 12.2% 23.4% 55.3% SP vs. Left (2016-17) 0.357 0.323 32.4% 7.4% 17.5% 38.0%
SP vs. Right (2016-17) 0.287 0.277 29.7% 10.8% 27.1% 59.8% SP vs. Right (2016-17) 0.275 0.284 30.3% 4.9% 23.1% 44.2%

Pitcher Grind Down

Trevor Cahill
trevor-cahill-300x200 FanDuel DraftKings FantasyDraft
Salary: $8,100 Salary: $7,700 Salary: $15,300
Salary Rank: 16 of 30 Salary Rank: 16 of 30 Salary Rank: 12 of 30
Stats Starts SIERA ERA K% BB% GB% HC% SC%
2016 1 3.93 2.74 23.2% 12.3% 56.6% 29.8% 20.2%
2017 7 3.46 3.27 29.5% 9.8% 60.2% 33.0% 24.3%

We’ve reached the “Who is pitching against the Phillies?” section of today’s article and it happens to be an underpriced Trevor Cahill. Through seven starts Cahill owns a 3.27 ERA, 29.5% K rate and 9.8% BB rate. Not only does Cahill have elite strikeout ability he’s also generating ground balls at 60.2%. If you want to fit Coors bat (and you do) this is your cash game pitcher. He’ll take on a Phillies offense that owns a 23.8% K rate, .298 wOBA and 81 wRC+

Quick Breakdown: Cahill offers the best price/matchup combination of any pitcher on the slate. He’s cash game viable on every site.

Jerad Eickhoff
jerad-eickhoff-300x200 FanDuel DraftKings FantasyDraft
Salary: $6,600 Salary: $6,000 Salary: $12,000
Salary Rank: 25 of 30 Salary Rank: 23 of 30 Salary Rank: 21 of 30
Stats Starts SIERA ERA K% BB% GB% HC% SC%
2016 33 4.05 3.65 20.6% 5.2% 40.7% 30.8% 20.0%
2017 14 4.79 4.93 18.8% 8.7% 41.2% 32.9% 14.9%

Jerad Eickhoff owns a 4.93 ERA, 18.8% K rate and 8.7% BB rate through 14 starts. Over the past two seasons, he owns a .357 wOBA vs. LH hitting and a .257 wOBA vs. RH hitting. He does get a matchup upgrade though against a Padres offense that owns a 26% K rate, .297 wOBA and 83 wRC+ against RH pitching.

Quick Breakdown: If the Padres roll out a lineup with only 2-3 LH hitters, Eiickhoff is in play for tournaments with the obvious caveat that there is some risk here. He would be best suited for DK where he could be an SP2 paired with Eickhoff allowing a full or almost full Coors stack.

Batter Grind Down

San Diego

The Padres don’t have a lot to offer at the plate but Eickhoff generates a low amount of ground balls at 41.2% and barely any soft contact at 14.3%. This isn’t a terrible place for a one-off play in hopes of finding a home run. Wil Myers is my favorite option as he owns a .314 wOBA and .213 ISO vs. RH pitching.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

# Player Bats wOBA xwOBA ISO HC% BB% K% GB% FD Pos. FD Sal. DK Pos. DK Sal. FDRFT Pos. FDRFT Sal.
1 Wil Myers RIGHT 0.340 0.323 0.213 34.6% 9.3% 25.0% 42.8% 1B $3,100 1B $3,600 IF/OF $7,200
2 Manuel Margot RIGHT 0.296 0.269 0.135 22.6% 4.4% 21.7% 46.9% OF $2,800 OF $3,300 CF $6,400
3 Jose Pirela RIGHT 0.286 0.264 0.153 31.3% 4.4% 20.9% 53.0% OF $2,600 OF $3,400 2B $6,600
4 Cory Spangenberg LEFT 0.296 0.262 0.106 25.8% 5.5% 21.9% 49.2% 3B $3,000 3B/OF $3,600 2B $7,200
5 Hunter Renfroe RIGHT 0.289 0.281 0.222 31.9% 4.7% 30.0% 42.9% OF $2,900 OF $3,400 RF $6,600
6 Erick Aybar SWITCH 0.282 0.263 0.100 21.0% 8.1% 14.7% 52.4% SS $2,500 SS $2,800 SS $5,400
7 Carlos Asuaje LEFT 0.271 0.239 0.067 20.0% 8.8% 17.6% 41.7% 2B $2,200 2B $2,600 SS $5,100
8 Austin Hedges RIGHT 0.282 0.267 0.208 32.2% 5.3% 29.3% 38.1% C $2,100 C $3,300 C $6,600
9 Trevor Cahill RIGHT 0.233 0.234 0.077 10.0% 11.8% 29.4% 62.5% P $8,100 P $7,700 P $15,300

Elite Plays – None

Secondary Plays – Wil Myers

Stackability – RED – Not a recommended stack for cash games or GPPs.

Philadelphia

The Phillies against Trevor Cahill is not the ideal place too target. If you insist on going here, Cahill has allowed a .226 wOBA vs. LH and .315 wOBA vs. RH hitting this season. All three of his home runs and 11 of 14 earned runs have been RH hitters. That would ideally lead us to either Daniel Nava or Tommy Joseph who each own a 35% hard contact rate against RH pitching.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

# Player Bats wOBA xwOBA ISO HC% BB% K% GB% FD Pos. FD Sal. DK Pos. DK Sal. FDRFT Pos. FDRFT Sal.
1 Daniel Nava SWITCH 0.313 0.336 0.107 35.4% 8.1% 19.1% 38.4% OF $2,500 OF $3,700 LF $7,200
2 Freddy Galvis SWITCH 0.301 0.276 0.170 28.4% 5.7% 21.0% 40.2% SS $2,600 SS $3,600 SS $7,200
3 Maikel Franco RIGHT 0.285 0.315 0.142 28.2% 6.6% 16.2% 46.4% 3B $3,100 3B $3,600 3B $7,200
4 Tommy Joseph RIGHT 0.324 0.325 0.209 38.6% 5.5% 22.9% 42.3% 1B $3,400 1B $3,600 1B $7,200
5 Aaron Altherr RIGHT 0.314 0.297 0.149 33.8% 8.9% 31.0% 45.5% OF $3,200 OF $4,300 LF $8,400
6 Odubel Herrera LEFT 0.331 0.307 0.151 29.6% 8.2% 21.1% 43.1% OF $2,300 OF $2,900 IF/OF $5,600
7 Cameron Rupp RIGHT 0.282 0.301 0.154 31.7% 6.2% 29.6% 48.1% C $2,100 C $2,700 C $5,400
8 Andres Blanco SWITCH 0.307 0.303 0.136 26.3% 7.2% 19.4% 50.6% SS $2,100 2B/3B $2,200 2B $4,300
9 Jerad Eickhoff RIGHT 0.147 0.195 0.051 8.7% 1.6% 23.0% 60.5% P $6,600 P $6,000 P $12,000

Elite Plays – None

Secondary Plays – Daniel Nava

Stackability – ORANGE – A viable stack in large field GPPs.

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About the Author

sethayates
Seth Yates (sethayates)

Seth Yates hails from Dayton, Ohio. Seth started playing DFS during the NBA Playoffs in 2012. Seth rose to stardom in 2014 when he won the NFL Preseason Bomb using picks he blogged about. When he isn’t playing DFS, Seth is a Financial Analyst for the Air Force. Even though paying taxes on DFS isn’t fun, Seth re-invests your taxes back into DFS for you.