MLB Grind Down: Sunday, May 13th

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The RotoGrinders MLB Grind Down will give you an in-depth analysis into the upcoming MLB schedule. This article will break down the numbers for every single game and give you analysis on which trends you can exploit. While matchups are a major factor in daily fantasy baseball, there are plenty of other factors to consider such as injuries, weather, and salaries.

The analysis should point you in the right direction, but it is still up to you to decipher the information and make your own selections. No sport has more variance than baseball. The best choice is not always the right choice but following the trends will win you money over time.

Note: As always, if you want to try a new DFS site, be sure to click through a RotoGrinders link and use our DraftKings promo code, FanDuel promo code, and FantasyDraft promo code to receive the best perks in the industry.


Stackability Rating System:

GREEN – A viable full stack in cash games and GPPs.
YELLOW – A viable mini-stack in cash games and full stack in GPPs.
ORANGE – A viable stack in large field GPPs.
RED – Not a recommended stack for cash games or GPPs.


Implied Run Totals


Ballpark Ratings


Oakland at NY Yankees – 1:05 PM ET

Oakland NY Yankees
oaklandmlb Brett Anderson nyyankeesmlb Luis Severino
LEFT RIGHT
Vegas Moneyline Vegas Over/Under
NYY-300 8.5
Stats wOBA xwOBA HC% BB% K% GB% Stats wOBA xwOBA HC% BB% K% GB%
SP vs. Left (2016-17) 0.426 0.437 43.2% 10.7% 10.7% 59.1% SP vs. Left (2016-17) 0.278 0.303 32.7% 7.6% 30.9% 46.2%
SP vs. Right (2016-17) 0.370 0.373 34.8% 8.0% 15.1% 47.0% SP vs. Right (2016-17) 0.238 0.255 24.5% 5.5% 28.8% 53.7%

Pitcher Grind Down

Brett Anderson
brett-anderson-300x200 FanDuel DraftKings FantasyDraft
Salary: $5,500 Salary: $4,000 Salary: $8,000
Salary Rank: 23 of 29 Salary Rank: 18 of 29 Salary Rank: 18 of 29
Stats Starts SIERA ERA K% BB% GB% HC% SC%
2017 13 4.84 6.34 15.1% 8.4% 49.2% 36.5% 21.9%
2018 2 5.64 8.68 9.1% 9.1% 50.0% 36.1% 19.4%
L14 2 5.65 8.68 9.1% 9.1% 50.0% 36.1% 19.4%

It’s hard to know what to make of Brett Anderson at this stage of his career. He’s typically pitched pretty well when healthy, but he’s almost never been healthy. Even when he’s right, though, he hasn’t shown any strikeout upside at the major league level. Anderson is a pitch-to-contact, ground ball type of lefty. Considering he was absolutely obliterated by the Astros in his last start (9 earned runs in 3 innings) a date with the Yankees in New York is less than ideal for him.

Quick Breakdown: Things could get messy in a hurry for Mr. Anderson this afternoon.

Luis Severino
luis-severino-300x200 FanDuel DraftKings FantasyDraft
Salary: $10,200 Salary: $12,200 Salary: $23,800
Salary Rank: 3 of 29 Salary Rank: 3 of 29 Salary Rank: 3 of 29
Stats Starts SIERA ERA K% BB% GB% HC% SC%
2017 31 3.25 2.98 29.4% 6.5% 50.6% 28.5% 19.4%
2018 8 2.85 2.21 31.2% 5.9% 50.0% 26.2% 23.8%
L14 3 2.10 2.05 34.9% 2.4% 51.9% 26.9% 23.1%

Not only might Anderson be overmatched by the Yankee hitters, he’s also overmatched in terms of his mound opponent today. It sure looks as though Luis Severino has graduated into the Kluber-Sale-Scherzer class of starting pitcher this season. Through 8 starts, the big right-hander has a sparkling 31.2% K-rate and a 5.9% walk rate. He doesn’t allow much hard contact, and his SIERA of 2.86 isn’t far off from his ERA of 2.21. It’s worth noting that he’s been able to compile these numbers despite a series of rough matchups to begin the season. Severino has also held hitters from both sides of the plate to a wOBA of .236 or under. The A’s have some pop, but they’ve also struck out at a 23.8% clip so far this season against RHPs. In terms of raw points, Severino is my favorite pitching option on the main slate.

Quick Breakdown: Severino is arguably the top play on the board, which puts him in play in all formats. He doesn’t come cheap, however.

Batter Grind Down

Oakland

Considering I have plenty of interest in Severino, I’m obviously not going to turn around and recommend you stack the A’s against him. Other than hoping someone like Matt Olson can run into one and take advantage of Yankee Stadium’s short right field porch for tournaments, this lineup is a full fade for me.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

# Player Bats xwOBA L15 ISO HC% BB% K% GB% FD Pos. FD Sal. DK Pos. DK Sal. FDRFT Pos. FDRFT Sal.
1 Marcus Semien RIGHT 0.313 0.264 0.133 26.7% 9.0% 22.1% 39.2% SS $3,300 SS $3,400 SS $6,400
2 Matt Joyce LEFT 0.368 0.237 0.235 31.8% 13.7% 21.2% 34.5% OF $2,500 OF $2,800 RF $5,700
3 Jed Lowrie SWITCH 0.379 0.383 0.200 36.5% 11.2% 15.1% 28.8% 2B $3,900 2B $3,800 2B $7,600
4 Khris Davis RIGHT 0.394 0.309 0.288 41.8% 9.6% 29.0% 37.5% OF $3,300 OF $3,600 LF $7,200
5 Matt Olson LEFT 0.399 0.375 0.341 45.6% 11.1% 31.3% 34.0% 1B $2,600 1B $3,300 IF/OF $6,700
6 Matt Chapman RIGHT 0.336 0.249 0.234 37.8% 9.7% 25.8% 36.1% 3B $2,500 3B $3,200 3B $6,500
7 Dustin Fowler LEFT 0.230 0.230 0.000 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% OF $2,000 OF $3,100 CF $5,700
8 Mark Canha RIGHT 0.311 0.275 0.185 33.7% 6.2% 30.4% 38.8% OF $2,800 OF $3,200 IF/OF $6,700
9 Jonathan Lucroy RIGHT 0.328 0.364 0.113 26.7% 8.8% 11.4% 50.0% C $2,300 C $2,900 C $5,500

Elite Plays – None

Secondary Plays – Matt Olson (deep GPP flier)

Stackability – RED

NY Yankees

We don’t have any evidence to suggest that Anderson is any good at this stage of his career, and his apparent inability to miss bats could prove problematic for him today against the league’s most powerful offense. Most of the Yanks’ better hitters take their hacks from the right side of the plate. While Anderson’s history as a heavy ground ball pitcher is some cause for concern, his GB% has waned considerably as his career has gone along. I expect the Yankees to be popular, but I may limit my cash game exposure to somebody from the Stanton-Judge-Sanchez triumvirate.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. LH Pitching)

# Player Bats xwOBA L15 ISO HC% BB% K% GB% FD Pos. FD Sal. DK Pos. DK Sal. FDRFT Pos. FDRFT Sal.
1 Brett Gardner LEFT 0.301 0.339 0.069 20.1% 9.5% 19.0% 50.0% OF $3,400 OF $3,800 LF $7,500
2 Aaron Judge RIGHT 0.430 0.316 0.262 45.1% 25.4% 32.0% 31.7% OF $5,200 OF $5,500 RF $10,900
3 Didi Gregorius LEFT 0.277 0.305 0.116 16.8% 5.1% 14.3% 35.5% SS $4,000 SS $4,400 SS $8,100
4 Giancarlo Stanton RIGHT 0.476 0.363 0.497 47.6% 16.3% 16.8% 42.9% OF $4,800 OF $5,200 RF $9,900
5 Gary Sanchez RIGHT 0.393 0.418 0.294 38.4% 11.1% 24.2% 41.4% C $4,100 C $4,500 C $9,400
6 Aaron Hicks SWITCH 0.357 0.300 0.180 30.2% 10.8% 16.9% 45.2% OF $2,900 OF $3,500 CF $6,400
7 Tyler Austin RIGHT 0.448 0.311 0.282 36.7% 12.8% 23.4% 33.3% 1B $3,000 1B $4,000 1B $7,200
8 Miguel Andujar RIGHT 0.267 0.244 0.100 20.0% 6.3% 15.6% 56.0% 3B $2,700 3B $3,500 3B $6,400
9 Gleyber Torres RIGHT 0.370 0.395 0.000 25.0% 6.7% 13.3% 41.7% 2B $3,500 2B $4,200 2B $8,400

Elite Plays – Giancarlo Stanton, Gary Sanchez, Aaron Judge

Secondary Plays – Didi Gregorius, Miguel Andujar, Gleyber Torres

Stackability – YELLOW / GREEN


Tampa Bay at Baltimore – 1:05 PM ET

Tampa Bay Baltimore
tampabaymlb Blake Snell baltimoremlb Dylan Bundy
LEFT RIGHT
Vegas Moneyline Vegas Over/Under
BAL-105 8.5
Stats wOBA xwOBA HC% BB% K% GB% Stats wOBA xwOBA HC% BB% K% GB%
SP vs. Left (2016-17) 0.198 0.270 29.8% 7.8% 27.1% 44.6% SP vs. Left (2016-17) 0.348 0.357 38.2% 7.8% 17.2% 30.4%
SP vs. Right (2016-17) 0.316 0.319 33.2% 10.4% 22.2% 41.5% SP vs. Right (2016-17) 0.300 0.311 33.6% 6.8% 27.7% 36.3%

Pitcher Grind Down

Blake Snell
blake-snell-300x200 FanDuel DraftKings FantasyDraft
Salary: $8,500 Salary: $9,800 Salary: $18,500
Salary Rank: 7 of 29 Salary Rank: 5 of 29 Salary Rank: 6 of 29
Stats Starts SIERA ERA K% BB% GB% HC% SC%
2017 24 4.72 4.04 21.8% 10.8% 43.9% 33.2% 18.8%
2018 8 3.62 2.40 26.7% 7.5% 36.4% 31.7% 19.5%
L14 3 3.70 2.21 23.4% 5.2% 38.9% 36.4% 18.2%

We’ve been waiting for Blake Snell to break out, and he finally appears to be doing just that. The lefty boasts a strikeout rate of nearly 27% so far this season, and, most importantly, he’s improved his command. He has lowered his walk rate from 10.8% last year to 7.5% so far in 2018. Snell is facing a strikeout-happy Orioles team today, but he’s a guy with a wide platoon split and the O’s can stack the lineup with right-handed bats against him. There is plenty of upside with Snell, but there’s also considerable risk, especially in a homer-friendly park like Camden Yards. Just look at what we saw happen to Chris Archer yesterday. Snell is best suited for GPPs, but there’s no reason to risk it in cash games with so many other viable pitching options.

Quick Breakdown: I don’t hate Snell’s upside for GPPs, but the risk feels too great to be considering him for cash on this slate.

Dylan Bundy
dylan-bundy-300x200 FanDuel DraftKings FantasyDraft
Salary: $8,200 Salary: $5,500 Salary: $11,000
Salary Rank: 9 of 29 Salary Rank: 14 of 29 Salary Rank: 14 of 29
Stats Starts SIERA ERA K% BB% GB% HC% SC%
2017 28 4.45 4.24 21.8% 7.3% 32.8% 36.5% 17.6%
2018 8 3.69 5.31 26.1% 7.1% 35.0% 33.9% 19.0%
L14 3 5.53 19.00 14.6% 7.3% 28.6% 42.9% 11.9%

Did everybody enjoy the Dylan Bundy experience a few days ago? In case you missed it, Bundy turned in the worst start in MLB this season, failing to record an out as he surrendered 7 runs on 5 hits with 2 walks, including 4 dongs, against the Royals in a 15-7 loss. The 25-year-old got off to a hot start this season, but he’s looked considerably more wobbly over his last 3 outings.

Bundy got rocked to the tune of 7 earned runs against these Rays just a few starts ago. Still, he’s a strong strikeout pitcher (26.1% K-rate this season) that certainly isn’t as awful as he’s looked recently. It’s also worth noting that he’s dirt cheap on DraftKings today at just $5,500. If you’re feeling frisky, you can play him and hope today is the day he turns things around. The opposing Rays offense isn’t all that daunting, but this is a good park for power. Bundy has already allowed 10 homers on the year and lefties have been teeing off against him (.423 wOBA allowed). Some of that has been bad luck, but I’m still leery enough to where I’ll likely be passing on him until he gets back on track.

Quick Breakdown: There are too many red flags with Bundy right now to where I can feel comfortable rostering him. He’s almost free on DK, however, which puts him into the conversation at the very least.

Batter Grind Down

Tampa Bay

Given Bundy’s recent blow-ups, overlooking the Rays completely on this slate could be a mistake. This lineup is more watered-down than the one we saw last year, but you can still pick your spots with them. The best part is that most of these hitters are cheap, and there’s power potential. I’d first look to the lefties, which puts Brad Miller and Denard Span into play. If you’re stacking, I don’t hate turning to C.J. Cron or Wilson Ramos from the right side. Tampa Bay isn’t a great team to stack, though, which means I’ll likely play a few of them as one-offs rather than all in the same lineup as correlation plays.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

# Player Bats xwOBA L15 ISO HC% BB% K% GB% FD Pos. FD Sal. DK Pos. DK Sal. FDRFT Pos. FDRFT Sal.
1 Denard Span LEFT 0.343 0.374 0.174 28.9% 8.6% 12.5% 41.3% OF $3,000 OF $4,300 CF $8,300
2 C.J. Cron RIGHT 0.336 0.349 0.167 36.0% 5.3% 24.9% 35.6% 1B $3,300 1B $3,700 1B $7,600
3 Joey Wendle LEFT 0.284 0.286 0.165 40.6% 6.5% 18.3% 50.7% 2B $2,400 2B $3,500 2B $6,400
4 Wilson Ramos RIGHT 0.330 0.440 0.178 34.5% 4.8% 18.0% 52.9% C $2,800 C $4,000 C $7,200
5 Matt Duffy RIGHT 0.303 0.288 0.106 30.0% 6.9% 23.6% 46.0% 3B $2,900 3B $3,300 3B $6,700
6 Brad Miller LEFT 0.328 0.350 0.134 36.7% 16.5% 26.8% 47.2% 1B $2,400 1B $3,200 2B $6,300
7 Adeiny Hechavarria RIGHT 0.295 0.285 0.123 36.5% 3.6% 18.8% 49.0% SS $2,300 SS $2,900 SS $5,800
8 Mallex Smith LEFT 0.270 0.261 0.091 21.1% 9.6% 18.6% 48.4% OF $3,000 OF $3,900 CF $7,300
9 Carlos Gomez RIGHT 0.343 0.265 0.214 39.9% 7.5% 29.2% 37.8% OF $2,400 OF $3,900 CF $7,400

Elite Plays – Brad Miller

Secondary Plays – Denard Span, C.J. Cron, Wilson Ramos

Stackability – YELLOW

Baltimore

Snell has pitched well this season, but I’m still not to the point where I’m going to go all-in on calling him an ace. Righties still give him a few problems, and the Orioles have right-handed power bats in spades. You can stack Baltimore hitters if you think they’ll go low-owned in GPPs, but I’m more likely to pick one or two as one-offs and hope they can get into one for cash games. I’m hesitant to go much further than that, though, considering Snell’s improvement and the fact that the O’s tend to strike out quite a bit. You can play Manny Machado in just about any matchup, especially against a lefty, while the other right-handed power bats like Jonathan Schoop, Mark Trumbo, Trey Mancini and Adam Jones should at least be on your radar.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. LH Pitching)

# Player Bats xwOBA L15 ISO HC% BB% K% GB% FD Pos. FD Sal. DK Pos. DK Sal. FDRFT Pos. FDRFT Sal.
1 Trey Mancini RIGHT 0.321 0.313 0.146 32.2% 4.8% 23.8% 53.0% OF $3,200 1B/OF $3,700 IF/OF $7,300
2 Adam Jones RIGHT 0.323 0.321 0.130 33.3% 6.0% 18.4% 44.3% OF $3,100 OF $3,800 CF $7,700
3 Manny Machado RIGHT 0.395 0.329 0.258 44.5% 7.7% 13.9% 37.7% SS $4,700 SS $4,800 3B $9,300
4 Jonathan Schoop RIGHT 0.375 0.406 0.260 39.4% 8.0% 23.0% 40.9% 2B $3,500 2B $3,500 2B $6,300
5 Mark Trumbo RIGHT 0.296 0.306 0.167 30.3% 5.5% 22.4% 43.7% OF $3,100 1B/OF $3,600 DH $7,300
6 Chris Davis LEFT 0.321 0.338 0.152 35.8% 9.7% 40.0% 34.7% 1B $2,700 1B $3,300 IF/OF $6,300
7 Danny Valencia RIGHT 0.365 0.374 0.191 37.1% 13.9% 19.8% 44.4% 3B $2,600 3B $3,300 3B $6,600
8 Craig Gentry RIGHT 0.298 0.202 0.159 31.7% 8.8% 25.3% 50.0% OF $2,000 OF $2,400 LF $4,900
9 Caleb Joseph RIGHT 0.350 0.260 0.180 34.4% 4.2% 26.3% 39.1% C $2,000 C $2,400 C $4,500

Elite Plays – Manny Machado

Secondary Plays – Jonathan Schoop, Mark Trumbo, Adam Jones, Trey Mancini

Stackability – YELLOW


Boston at Toronto – 1:07 PM ET

Boston Toronto
bostonmlb Drew Pomeranz torontomlb Joe Biagini
LEFT RIGHT
Vegas Moneyline Vegas Over/Under
BOS-115 9.5
Stats wOBA xwOBA HC% BB% K% GB% Stats wOBA xwOBA HC% BB% K% GB%
SP vs. Left (2016-17) 0.326 0.307 32.5% 8.0% 27.3% 38.1% SP vs. Left (2016-17) 0.353 0.331 35.9% 7.1% 20.9% 50.3%
SP vs. Right (2016-17) 0.315 0.329 33.7% 9.7% 22.3% 43.8% SP vs. Right (2016-17) 0.314 0.313 28.8% 8.9% 16.5% 58.7%

Pitcher Grind Down

Drew Pomeranz
drew-pomeranz-300x200 FanDuel DraftKings FantasyDraft
Salary: $7,000 Salary: $7,100 Salary: $13,700
Salary Rank: 15 of 29 Salary Rank: 11 of 29 Salary Rank: 11 of 29
Stats Starts SIERA ERA K% BB% GB% HC% SC%
2017 32 4.31 3.32 23.5% 9.3% 43.2% 32.5% 20.3%
2018 4 4.26 5.23 22.5% 9.0% 37.7% 41.0% 11.5%
L14 3 4.70 4.76 18.6% 8.6% 39.2% 37.3% 11.8%

Drew Pomeranz hasn’t pitched all that well this season. He’s allowed a bloated hard contact rate of 41% and walks continue to be an issue for him. He’s stifled fellow lefties (.177 wOBA, 0 HR), but righties have been crushing him (.434 wOBA, 5 HR). That said, we’re only working with a sample size of 4 starts, and he’s shown decent strikeout form (22.5%). There will be a time to play Pomeranz this season, but this doesn’t look like the spot. The Jays have been a sneakily strong offense this season, and there’s a chance Pomeranz could face 9 right-handed hitters.

Quick Breakdown: Pomeranz is a better pitcher than he’s shown, but he’s an easy fade on this slate.

Joe Biagini
joseph-biagini-300x200 FanDuel DraftKings FantasyDraft
Salary: $5,500 Salary: $4,000 Salary: $8,000
Salary Rank: 23 of 29 Salary Rank: 18 of 29 Salary Rank: 18 of 29
Stats Starts SIERA ERA K% BB% GB% HC% SC%
2017 18 4.28 5.34 18.8% 8.1% 55.7% 30.3% 18.6%
2018 2 4.62 8.10 15.4% 7.7% 48.6% 47.4% 10.5%
L14 1 4.07 12.46 16.7% 4.2% 36.8% 52.6% 5.3%

This is where Marcus Stroman would normally pitch, but Toronto called Joe Biagini up from the minors to take the ball with Stroman hitting the DL. The right-hander has made a couple of spot starts already this season. One went fine enough against the Royals (3 earned runs in 5.2 innings), but he was blasted by the Indians in his most recent appearance (6 earned runs on 10 hits in 4.1 frames). Biagini hasn’t shown a ton of strikeout upside at any level. He’s a guy that will rely on inducing ground balls. While that’s all fine and dandy, I don’t see any reason to risk him against an elite group of Red Sox hitters.

Quick Breakdown: There’s far more downside than upside in rostering Joe Biagini in a matchup with the Red Sox.

Batter Grind Down

Boston

The Red Sox don’t come cheap, and they may go abit overlooked with the masses likely flocking to roster the Yankees, Astros and bats from Coors Field. While there are hitters are in more favorable spots, I think you can still stack up the Red Sox and feel pretty good about your lineups today, especially in tournaments. Biagini’s been more vulnerable to lefties in his career, so you can start things off with guys like Rafael Devers or Mitch Moreland (if he’s in the lineup). It’s not like Biagini turns into Max Scherzer against righties, though, which puts the team’s best hitters like Mookie Betts, J.D. Martinez and Hanley Ramirez all squarely in play, too. I like the Sox as a team that may go a little overlooked today.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

# Player Bats xwOBA L15 ISO HC% BB% K% GB% FD Pos. FD Sal. DK Pos. DK Sal. FDRFT Pos. FDRFT Sal.
1 Mookie Betts RIGHT 0.370 0.543 0.219 38.8% 9.8% 12.1% 38.0% OF $4,900 OF $5,800 RF $10,700
2 Andrew Benintendi LEFT 0.344 0.266 0.181 34.8% 10.3% 16.3% 37.6% OF $3,600 OF $4,200 LF $8,000
3 Hanley Ramirez RIGHT 0.366 0.350 0.180 35.2% 8.0% 19.6% 42.5% 1B $4,200 1B $4,100 1B $8,000
4 J.D. Martinez RIGHT 0.424 0.420 0.339 49.2% 9.5% 26.4% 42.5% OF $4,500 OF $5,000 RF $10,300
5 Xander Bogaerts RIGHT 0.298 0.352 0.149 33.3% 7.7% 19.0% 47.7% SS $3,900 SS $4,300 SS $8,400
6 Mitch Moreland LEFT 0.398 0.463 0.232 39.2% 9.5% 19.6% 41.1% 1B $3,400 1B $4,300 1B $8,100
7 Eduardo Nunez RIGHT 0.270 0.263 0.160 25.3% 3.1% 12.8% 51.9% 2B $2,900 2B/SS $3,500 3B $6,500
8 Brock Holt LEFT 0.285 0.463 0.088 23.3% 9.9% 18.1% 53.5% 2B $2,100 2B/SS $3,200 2B $6,600
9 Sandy Leon SWITCH 0.267 0.347 0.116 32.1% 7.3% 25.4% 36.6% C $2,200 C $2,600 C $5,000

Elite Plays – Mookie Betts, J.D. Martinez, Rafael Devers, Hanley Ramirez

Secondary Plays – Mitch Moreland, Eduardo Nunez, Xander Bogaerts

Stackability – GREEN

Toronto

The Jays are a team that almost always goes under-owned from a DFS perspective. That may be due to the fact that nobody outside of Josh Donaldson seems all that exciting. Still, Pomeranz is a hittable lefty going into a good park for power in Toronto, so I like a few Blue Jays bats today. Donaldson hasn’t looked quite right this season, but I’ll still list him as an elite play considering he always has home run potential. I won’t go crazy with Jays against Pomeranz, but I think you can pick the right spots with some of Toronto’s better right-handed sticks. Justin Smoak, Teoscar Hernandez and perhaps Yangervis Solarte stand out as playable options.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. LH Pitching)

# Player Bats xwOBA L15 ISO HC% BB% K% GB% FD Pos. FD Sal. DK Pos. DK Sal. FDRFT Pos. FDRFT Sal.
1 Teoscar Hernandez RIGHT 0.366 0.391 0.259 37.1% 7.8% 37.5% 37.1% OF $3,400 OF $4,000 CF $7,200
2 Josh Donaldson RIGHT 0.393 0.247 0.355 42.5% 12.7% 23.8% 40.0% 3B $4,100 3B $4,500 3B $9,000
3 Yangervis Solarte SWITCH 0.335 0.366 0.132 28.7% 8.2% 9.7% 45.2% 3B $3,200 2B/3B $3,700 2B $7,200
4 Justin Smoak SWITCH 0.387 0.346 0.202 34.3% 11.4% 14.0% 39.9% 1B $3,200 1B $3,600 1B $7,500
5 Kevin Pillar RIGHT 0.339 0.404 0.222 32.9% 5.5% 14.5% 40.1% OF $3,000 OF $3,700 CF $7,200
6 Russell Martin RIGHT 0.333 0.326 0.107 34.5% 15.4% 26.0% 40.4% C $2,400 C $3,200 C $6,800
7 Kendrys Morales SWITCH 0.364 0.312 0.217 43.6% 6.7% 22.4% 55.6% 1B $2,100 1B $3,000 1B $5,600
8 Anthony Alford RIGHT 0.186 0.305 0.000 0.0% 14.3% 28.6% 75.0% OF $2,100 OF $3,000 CF $5,800
9 Lourdes Gurriel RIGHT 0.336 0.373 0.000 31.6% 4.3% 13.0% 63.2% 2B $2,100 2B/SS $2,700 2B $5,800

Elite Plays – Josh Donaldson, Justin Smoak, Teoscar Hernandez

Secondary Plays – Kevin Pillar, Yangervis Solarte

Stackability – YELLOW


Atlanta at Miami – 1:10 PM ET

Atlanta Miami
atlantamlb Sean Newcomb miamimlb Jose Urena
LEFT RIGHT
Vegas Moneyline Vegas Over/Under
ATL-120 8.0
Stats wOBA xwOBA HC% BB% K% GB% Stats wOBA xwOBA HC% BB% K% GB%
SP vs. Left (2016-17) 0.322 0.361 30.3% 10.0% 25.0% 44.3% SP vs. Left (2016-17) 0.327 0.380 35.9% 8.7% 12.2% 40.1%
SP vs. Right (2016-17) 0.317 0.297 25.8% 12.7% 25.1% 45.7% SP vs. Right (2016-17) 0.305 0.311 30.8% 7.6% 20.7% 49.8%

Pitcher Grind Down

Sean Newcomb
sean-newcomb-300x200 FanDuel DraftKings FantasyDraft
Salary: $8,100 Salary: $9,500 Salary: $18,800
Salary Rank: 10 of 29 Salary Rank: 6 of 29 Salary Rank: 5 of 29
Stats Starts SIERA ERA K% BB% GB% HC% SC%
2017 19 4.71 4.32 23.7% 12.5% 43.8% 27.0% 17.5%
2018 7 3.70 2.88 28.7% 10.8% 49.5% 26.7% 25.7%
L14 3 3.57 1.89 29.2% 9.7% 47.7% 27.3% 20.5%

I’m always wary of crowning young pitchers after they enjoy quick success, but Sean Newcomb looks like the real deal. The 24-year-old southpaw has a 2.88 ERA along with 48 strikeouts across 40.2 innings pitched this season. He’s been in fine form, too, having held the Mets and Rays scoreless on just 4 total hits in each of his last 2 outings. Newcomb has flashed great strikeout stuff and the ability to generate swings-and-misses. The only red flag with him is the walks. As is the case with lots of young arms, Newcomb can struggle with control at times, as evidenced by the 10.8% walk rate this season.

Given the matchup today with the Marlins on the road, I’m willing to overlook the walk problems. The Marlins aren’t a team that walks much, and they have some strikeouts in the lineup. Newcomb is a bit expensive for my liking, but there aren’t many more favorable matchups than pitching against Miami on the road.

Quick Breakdown: Newcomb isn’t in my top tier of options on this slate, but he’s still a solid play given the matchup and spacious ballpark.

Jose Urena
jose-urena-300x200 FanDuel DraftKings FantasyDraft
Salary: $7,000 Salary: $6,200 Salary: $12,200
Salary Rank: 15 of 29 Salary Rank: 13 of 29 Salary Rank: 13 of 29
Stats Starts SIERA ERA K% BB% GB% HC% SC%
2017 28 5.19 3.82 15.6% 8.8% 43.1% 31.8% 18.6%
2018 8 4.03 4.37 19.5% 5.6% 50.7% 40.0% 13.6%
L14 3 3.46 2.33 21.3% 2.5% 52.5% 37.3% 15.3%

Jose Urena isn’t horrible, but there are a lot of things that have to be going his way for him to be in play from a DFS perspective. The big home ballpark is nice, but Urena has the misfortune of facing a Braves offense that has been lighting it up this season. Urena has also been rather awful against left-handed hitters over the course of his career, and some of the Braves’ best hitters swing it from that side of the plate. He’s an easy fade.

Quick Breakdown: Urena doesn’t have the upside to warrant consideration against the Braves.

Batter Grind Down

Atlanta

We knew the Braves were on an upward trend, but I’m not sure many saw this explosion coming. The ballpark stinks, but we know we can attack Urena with left-handed hitters, as evidenced by his .342 career wOBA allowed to southpaws. 27 of the 46 career homers he’s allowed have also come off of left-handed bats. Freddie Freeman may be the top overall play on the board, while Ozzie Albies, Ender Inciarte and even the rejuvenated Nick Markakis are all viable options. You can take a flier on a right-handed talent like Ronald Acuna Matata, too, but I’m probably most comfortable getting my Braves exposure from the other side of the plate.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

# Player Bats xwOBA L15 ISO HC% BB% K% GB% FD Pos. FD Sal. DK Pos. DK Sal. FDRFT Pos. FDRFT Sal.
1 Ozzie Albies SWITCH 0.326 0.333 0.195 30.8% 6.8% 18.6% 38.0% 2B $4,700 2B $5,100 2B $10,100
2 Ronald Acuna RIGHT 0.362 0.379 0.219 47.8% 8.6% 25.7% 52.2% OF $4,200 OF $4,700 LF $9,100
3 Freddie Freeman LEFT 0.434 0.427 0.277 40.2% 14.6% 16.4% 31.4% 1B $4,500 1B $5,300 1B $9,700
4 Nick Markakis LEFT 0.350 0.422 0.121 34.3% 11.5% 14.4% 45.6% OF $3,900 OF $4,200 RF $8,000
5 Kurt Suzuki RIGHT 0.336 0.322 0.218 32.8% 5.6% 12.1% 34.7% C $2,600 C $3,400 C $6,700
6 Ender Inciarte LEFT 0.291 0.283 0.109 23.1% 6.4% 13.7% 44.0% OF $3,000 OF $4,100 CF $8,000
7 Johan Camargo SWITCH 0.292 0.362 0.132 27.8% 7.2% 20.2% 50.3% SS $3,000 3B/SS $3,100 SS $5,800
8 Ryan Flaherty LEFT 0.318 0.301 0.110 24.7% 12.7% 22.2% 58.2% 3B $2,600 3B $3,000 3B $5,400
9 Sean Newcomb LEFT 0.086 0.179 0.030 6.3% 5.0% 55.0% 77.8% P $8,100 P $9,500 P $18,800

Elite Plays – Freddie Freeman, Ozzie Albies

Secondary Plays – Nick Markakis, Ender Inciarte

Stackability – YELLOW

Miami

The Marlins are a team I’m rarely interested in playing, and Sean Newcomb isn’t a pitcher I seek out, either. J.T. Realmuto is always in play because he’s the rare good-hitting catcher, and Starlin Castro can be played as a one-off. Otherwise, the Marlins can be ignored. I don’t think a full fade here is going to burn you.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. LH Pitching)

# Player Bats xwOBA L15 ISO HC% BB% K% GB% FD Pos. FD Sal. DK Pos. DK Sal. FDRFT Pos. FDRFT Sal.
1 J.T. Realmuto RIGHT 0.350 0.375 0.211 35.6% 10.0% 16.4% 39.6% C $3,300 C $4,100 C $8,400
2 Martin Prado RIGHT 0.235 0.265 0.051 17.7% 2.4% 14.6% 55.9% 3B $2,200 3B $2,700 3B $5,400
3 Starlin Castro RIGHT 0.348 0.321 0.122 33.7% 10.2% 19.0% 51.0% 2B $2,800 2B $3,400 2B $6,900
4 Brian Anderson RIGHT 0.417 0.371 0.153 40.5% 10.6% 25.8% 38.1% 3B $3,000 3B/OF $3,100 3B $5,500
5 Justin Bour LEFT 0.299 0.439 0.174 23.5% 12.9% 26.4% 55.3% 1B $3,400 1B $3,200 1B $6,400
6 Cameron Maybin RIGHT 0.296 0.364 0.076 35.1% 7.7% 19.2% 52.7% OF $2,100 OF $2,900 CF $5,400
7 Miguel Rojas RIGHT 0.346 0.350 0.130 27.5% 9.7% 8.8% 32.2% SS $2,700 SS $2,800 2B $5,800
8 Lewis Brinson RIGHT 0.362 0.272 0.188 27.8% 9.4% 22.6% 62.9% OF $2,300 OF $2,900 CF $5,500
9 Jose Urena RIGHT 0.038 0.083 0.000 25.0% 0.0% 76.5% 50.0% P $7,000 P $6,200 P $12,200

Elite Plays – None

Secondary Plays – J.T. Realmuto, Starlin Castro

Stackability – RED


Kansas City at Cleveland – 1:10 PM ET

Kansas City Cleveland
kansascitymlb Danny Duffy clevelandmlb Corey Kluber
LEFT RIGHT
Vegas Moneyline Vegas Over/Under
CLE-280 8.0
Stats wOBA xwOBA HC% BB% K% GB% Stats wOBA xwOBA HC% BB% K% GB%
SP vs. Left (2016-17) 0.217 0.273 24.0% 5.6% 24.5% 44.4% SP vs. Left (2016-17) 0.252 0.272 31.8% 5.9% 31.0% 44.4%
SP vs. Right (2016-17) 0.342 0.342 33.5% 7.6% 20.3% 37.0% SP vs. Right (2016-17) 0.230 0.256 28.3% 3.5% 33.7% 45.7%

Pitcher Grind Down

Danny Duffy
danny-duffy-300x200 FanDuel DraftKings FantasyDraft
Salary: $6,900 Salary: $5,000 Salary: $10,300
Salary Rank: 18 of 29 Salary Rank: 15 of 29 Salary Rank: 15 of 29
Stats Starts SIERA ERA K% BB% GB% HC% SC%
2017 24 4.31 3.81 21.4% 6.7% 39.5% 29.8% 17.8%
2018 8 4.59 5.15 20.0% 8.7% 34.8% 38.1% 13.0%
L14 3 4.52 5.00 18.0% 5.1% 37.3% 38.3% 16.7%

Danny Duffy has been the Royals’ most consistent starter over the last few years, but he’s been tough to figure out this season. His 4.61 SIERA suggests there’s some bad luck in his 5.15 ERA, but he’s a fly ball pitcher that allows a lot of hard contact. Duffy showed big strikeout upside in 2016, but his Ks dwindled last season and he’s been about league average in that department (20%) in 2018. He’s also allowed 10 homers already this season, 9 of which have come off of right-handed bats. The Indians’ lineup is generally left-handed heavy, which should help him a bit. There’s profit potential in his super cheap price tag, but I slightly prefer Dylan Bundy if you’re shopping in the bargain bin.

Quick Breakdown: You can consider Duffy because of his cheap tag, but he’s far from one of the best options on the board.

Corey Kluber
corey-kluber-300x200 FanDuel DraftKings FantasyDraft
Salary: $11,100 Salary: $13,300 Salary: $25,400
Salary Rank: 1 of 29 Salary Rank: 1 of 29 Salary Rank: 1 of 29
Stats Starts SIERA ERA K% BB% GB% HC% SC%
2017 29 2.68 2.25 34.1% 4.6% 44.5% 28.9% 24.4%
2018 8 3.21 2.62 26.3% 4.6% 46.6% 33.3% 19.3%
L14 3 3.28 3.74 24.4% 4.9% 51.7% 36.2% 24.1%

Kluber hasn’t necessarily been as sharp as we saw him last season, but even when he isn’t at his best he’s still one of the best pitchers in baseball. The former Cy Young winner has a K-rate north of 26% and he keeps the walks to a minimum. He’s allowed exactly 3 earned runs in each of his last 4 starts, but he has enough strikeout upside to mitigate the risk if the Royals do plate a few against him. The fact that he’s already coughed up 10 long balls is somewhat concerning, but the KC offense opposing him today isn’t exactly daunting. It is worth noting that the Royals have the lowest K% in the league against right-handed pitching this season. Kluber is the most expensive option on the slate. While he’s fully capable of paying off that price tag, I think you can find some cheaper SP1 options on this slate.

Quick Breakdown: I give the slight edge to Severino and Paxton today, especially given the discounts you can get on them compared to Kluber. That said, I’ll never talk you off of Kluber, who’s a fine enough play every time he takes the mound.

Batter Grind Down

Kansas City

I mentioned Kluber has been susceptible to allowing homers so far this year, so you can take a shot on a Mike Moustakas or a Lucas Duda if you’re searching for a low-owned bat with dong potential. The Royals aren’t a fun team to stack to begin with, though, and I’m certainly not doing so against Kluber.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

# Player Bats xwOBA L15 ISO HC% BB% K% GB% FD Pos. FD Sal. DK Pos. DK Sal. FDRFT Pos. FDRFT Sal.
1 Jon Jay LEFT 0.323 0.298 0.083 29.5% 7.4% 18.2% 48.2% OF $2,600 OF $2,800 CF $5,800
2 Jorge Soler RIGHT 0.297 0.385 0.105 32.6% 13.4% 26.8% 43.5% OF $3,900 OF $3,700 RF $7,600
3 Mike Moustakas LEFT 0.382 0.380 0.287 36.3% 6.5% 15.1% 31.6% 3B $4,300 3B $3,700 3B $7,700
4 Salvador Perez RIGHT 0.351 0.360 0.226 39.0% 3.3% 17.9% 33.1% C $3,600 C $3,800 C $7,600
5 Lucas Duda LEFT 0.377 0.355 0.271 42.5% 12.7% 24.6% 27.0% 1B $3,300 1B $3,300 1B $6,700
6 Whit Merrifield RIGHT 0.319 0.344 0.145 31.5% 5.2% 14.3% 38.0% 2B $3,700 2B $3,800 IF/OF $7,700
7 Alex Gordon LEFT 0.306 0.406 0.136 33.9% 7.2% 23.9% 41.3% OF $3,100 OF $3,400 LF $6,600
8 Alcides Escobar RIGHT 0.276 0.319 0.093 27.6% 2.7% 14.9% 40.9% SS $2,200 SS $2,800 SS $5,900
9 Abraham Almonte SWITCH 0.331 0.277 0.162 33.3% 8.6% 22.7% 46.0% OF $2,200 OF $3,100 RF $5,800

Elite Plays – None

Secondary Plays – Mike Moustakas (GPP)

Stackability – RED

Cleveland

The Indians are one of a handful of teams on this slate that looks somewhat stackable. Duffy has been effective against his fellow lefties, but hitters of the opposite handedness have posted a collective wOBA of .382 against him this season. The Tribe has some power bats that can give Duffy issues, so you can do a 3- or 4-man stack of the righties here. I don’t hate differentiating with someone like Michael Brantley, either. Considering the Indians are fairly heavy with lefties, though, they don’t rank among the elite stacking options of the main slate. Edwin Encarnacion, Francisco Lindor and Jose Ramirez look like the strongest options.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. LH Pitching)

# Player Bats xwOBA L15 ISO HC% BB% K% GB% FD Pos. FD Sal. DK Pos. DK Sal. FDRFT Pos. FDRFT Sal.
1 Francisco Lindor SWITCH 0.370 0.441 0.227 42.2% 7.9% 13.9% 39.7% SS $4,600 SS $5,300 SS $9,500
2 Michael Brantley LEFT 0.311 0.428 0.071 24.6% 4.2% 10.9% 49.3% OF $3,500 OF $4,400 LF $8,200
3 Jose Ramirez SWITCH 0.372 0.430 0.250 37.5% 6.1% 10.4% 39.1% 3B $4,400 3B $5,200 IF/OF $10,100
4 Edwin Encarnacion RIGHT 0.393 0.400 0.208 37.2% 17.5% 23.0% 39.7% 1B $3,600 1B $4,500 1B $9,300
5 Yonder Alonso LEFT 0.345 0.302 0.234 36.1% 8.1% 22.8% 39.8% 1B $2,600 1B $3,600 1B $7,500
6 Jason Kipnis LEFT 0.304 0.375 0.152 28.9% 9.3% 19.7% 40.5% 2B $2,600 2B $3,500 2B $6,400
7 Brandon Guyer RIGHT 0.321 0.342 0.147 24.4% 8.7% 19.8% 39.0% OF $2,200 OF $2,800 LF $5,500
8 Roberto Perez RIGHT 0.340 0.222 0.234 42.6% 13.2% 27.5% 49.1% C $2,100 C $2,500 C $4,800
9 Rajai Davis RIGHT 0.280 0.268 0.101 26.1% 7.4% 19.1% 45.8% OF $2,300 OF $2,700 CF $5,800

Elite Plays – Edwin Encarnacion

Secondary Plays – Jose Ramirez, Francisco Lindor, Michael Brantley, Brandon Guyer

Stackability – YELLOW


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About the Author

tcsmith031
Taylor Smith (tcsmith031)

Based in Southern California, Taylor Smith (aka tcsmith031) has been working for RotoGrinders since 2018 in a number of different capacities. In addition to contributing written content for NBA, MLB, and NFL, Taylor is also a member of the projections/alerts team and makes regular appearances as an analyst on NBA Crunch Time. Follow Taylor on Twitter – @TayeBojangles