MLB Grind Down: Sunday, September 2nd

by Taylor Smith (tcsmith031) Last Updated 2019-05-16 15:45:47

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The RotoGrinders MLB Grind Down will give you an in-depth analysis into the upcoming MLB schedule. This article will break down the numbers for every single game and give you analysis on which trends you can exploit. While matchups are a major factor in daily fantasy baseball, there are plenty of other factors to consider such as injuries, weather, and salaries.

The analysis should point you in the right direction, but it is still up to you to decipher the information and make your own selections. No sport has more variance than baseball. The best choice is not always the right choice but following the trends will win you money over time.

Note: As always, if you want to try a new DFS site, be sure to click through a RotoGrinders link and use our DraftKings promo code, FanDuel promo code, and FantasyDraft promo code to receive the best perks in the industry.

Stackability Rating System:

GREEN – A viable full stack in cash games and GPPs.
YELLOW – A viable mini-stack in cash games and full stack in GPPs.
ORANGE – A viable stack in large field GPPs.
RED – Not a recommended stack for cash games or GPPs.

Implied Run Totals

Ballpark Ratings

Detroit at NY Yankees – 1:05 PM ET

Stats	wOBA	xwOBA	HC%	HR/9	K%	GB%	Stats	wOBA	xwOBA	HC%	HR/9	K%	GB%
Detroit								NY Yankees
			Matt Boyd							Lance Lynn
			LEFT							RIGHT
			Vegas Moneyline							Vegas Over/Under
			NYY-240							9.0
SP vs. Left (2016-17)	0.287	0.269	43.0%	1.30	26.1%	32.3%	SP vs. Left (2016-17)	0.371	0.357	38.1%	1.06	15.7%	52.8%
SP vs. Right (2016-17)	0.291	0.303	35.6%	0.96	20.3%	31.1%	SP vs. Right (2016-17)	0.301	0.291	34.9%	0.76	27.9%	47.9%

Pitcher Grind Down

	Stats	Starts	SIERA	ERA	K%	BB%	GB%	HC%	SC%	aFV	SwS%
Matt Boyd
	FanDuel				DraftKings				FantasyDraft
	Salary:			$6,600	Salary:			$7,500	Salary:		$14,400
	Salary Rank:			16 of 28	Salary Rank:			12 of 28	Salary Rank:		7 of 28
	2017	25	4.94	5.27	18.2%	8.8%	38.1%	34.6%	21.0%	92.0	10.0%
	2018	26	4.36	4.22	21.6%	7.4%	31.3%	37.2%	20.1%	90.1	9.9%
	L14	3	4.14	4.42	22.4%	5.3%	30.2%	37.7%	17.0%	91.4	9.8%

Matt Boyd used to be a guy we liked to pick on, but he’s taken a step forward this season. The lefty has a decent 21.6% strikeout rate on the year alongside a 4.36 SIERA. The problem here is that Boyd is a fly ball pitcher allowing hard hits at a 37.6% clip, and today he’s going into the Bronx to take on the Yankees, who are getting a little healthier. The Yankees have been largely awful lately, but it’s still not a team I want to be targeting, especially when they’re at home.

Quick Breakdown: Boyd is an easy fade against the Yankees.

	Stats	Starts	SIERA	ERA	K%	BB%	GB%	HC%	SC%	aFV	SwS%
Lance Lynn
	FanDuel				DraftKings				FantasyDraft
	Salary:			$8,000	Salary:			$8,800	Salary:		$17,100
	Salary Rank:			9 of 28	Salary Rank:			8 of 28	Salary Rank:		4 of 28
	2017	33	4.85	3.43	19.7%	10.1%	44.0%	29.2%	21.1%	91.8	9.0%
	2018	25	4.40	4.84	22.8%	11.7%	50.1%	36.3%	19.4%	93.1	10.1%
	L14	3	3.89	7.80	21.9%	6.9%	50.0%	40.4%	15.4%	93.0	8.7%

Lance Lynn has been up and down in 6 outings since coming to New York. The right-hander comes with a decent 22.8% strikeout rate, but his 11.7% walk rate has been dogging him constantly. Lynn has been dominant against right-handed hitters, while lefties have always given him trouble. The good thing today for Lynn is that he’s taking on a righty-heavy Tigers lineup today without many scary left-handed bats. Lynn is more expensive than I’d like, but he’s in play today if for no other reason than the early slate is downright dreadful from a pitching perspective.

Quick Breakdown: Lynn is an elite play today against Detroit.

Batter Grind Down

Detroit

Lance Lynn has conceded a .371 wOBA to left-handed hitters this season, which is not good. The Tigers lineup stinks, but they are cheap, and Yankee Stadium is great for lefty power. None of these guys looks all that appealing, but you can take a chance on Niko Goodrum, Jeimer Candelario or Jim Adduci with the platoon advantage on Lynn. Lynn has been quite a bit more effective against righties, so Nick Castellanos will likely be GPP-only for me on this slate. As usual, I’m not enthralled by the Tigers.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

#	Player	Bats	xwOBA	ISO	HC%	BB%	K%	GB%	FD Pos.	FD Sal.	DK Pos.	DK Sal.	FDRFT Pos.	FDRFT Sal.
1	Jeimer Candelario	SWITCH	0.290	0.166	34.2%	11.5%	24.7%	38.6%	3B	$3,100	3B	$3,900	3B	$7,300
2	Jim Adduci	LEFT	0.308	0.144	37.5%	4.9%	17.5%	43.0%	OF	$2,300	1B	$3,500	LF	$6,600
3	Nick Castellanos	RIGHT	0.383	0.191	48.1%	6.2%	23.4%	34.9%	OF	$3,500	OF	$4,200	IF/OF	$8,400
4	Victor Martinez	SWITCH	0.336	0.084	37.9%	7.1%	8.9%	39.5%	C	$2,500	1B	$3,300	1B	$6,300
5	Niko Goodrum	SWITCH	0.318	0.220	39.0%	8.7%	29.3%	40.1%	2B	$2,800	2B/OF	$3,900	2B	$7,500
6	Ronny Rodriguez	RIGHT	0.258	0.066	32.8%	7.2%	22.9%	50.0%	SS	$2,600	2B/SS	$3,100	2B	$5,600
7	Mikie Mahtook	RIGHT	0.290	0.150	25.3%	7.4%	28.1%	41.9%	OF	$2,300	OF	$3,600	CF	$7,700
8	James McCann	RIGHT	0.282	0.087	38.9%	5.6%	23.9%	40.1%	C	$2,100	C	$2,700	C	$5,700
9	JaCoby Jones	RIGHT	0.288	0.172	29.7%	4.7%	31.5%	40.7%	OF	$2,000	OF	$3,300	CF	$6,300
	Team Averages		0.306	0.142	35.9%	7.0%	23.4%	41.0%

Elite Plays – None

Secondary Plays – Niko Goodrum, Jeimer Candelario, Nick Castellanos

Stackability – RED

NY Yankees

The Yankees are a team that should score plenty of runs every day, they just haven’t been coming through despite a series of favorable matchups. Matt Boyd has been improved this season, but he’s still not necessary a guy I’m going out of my way to avoid. I’m leery of going all-in on the Yankees, but you can play just about any righty in the lineup here and feel decent about things. Giancarlo Stanton can’t be this bad forever, though I get it if you’re skittish to click his name in cash games at this point. Andrew McCutchen, Gleyber Torres, Miguel Andujar and Gary Sanchez are all strong individual plays or as parts of a NYY stack. Boyd has been decent enough against lefties to where guys like Greg Bird and Brett Gardner are fringe options.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. LH Pitching)

#	Player	Bats	xwOBA	ISO	HC%	BB%	K%	GB%	FD Pos.	FD Sal.	DK Pos.	DK Sal.	FDRFT Pos.	FDRFT Sal.
1	Andrew McCutchen	RIGHT	0.382	0.178	43.4%	11.9%	20.7%	43.4%	OF	$3,800	OF	$4,300	RF	$8,000
2	Giancarlo Stanton	RIGHT	0.451	0.336	59.3%	11.2%	25.2%	39.6%	OF	$4,800	OF	$5,000	RF	$9,900
3	Aaron Hicks	SWITCH	0.400	0.274	48.3%	13.5%	18.8%	35.2%	OF	$4,400	OF	$4,700	CF	$8,900
4	Miguel Andujar	RIGHT	0.319	0.231	32.1%	5.0%	18.0%	43.4%	3B	$4,100	3B	$4,300	3B	$8,500
5	Gary Sanchez	RIGHT	0.431	0.283	33.3%	16.7%	20.8%	33.3%	C	$3,500	C	$4,300	C	$8,200
6	Gleyber Torres	RIGHT	0.384	0.286	49.2%	11.5%	26.0%	30.8%	SS	$4,200	2B	$4,900	2B	$8,700
7	Luke Voit	RIGHT	0.303	0.125	38.9%	7.7%	23.1%	38.9%	1B	$3,200	1B	$3,800	1B	$7,700
8	Neil Walker	SWITCH	0.242	0.078	29.2%	7.1%	24.3%	46.8%	2B	$3,300	1B/2B	$3,500	2B	$6,600
9	Brett Gardner	LEFT	0.296	0.097	26.1%	10.2%	20.5%	51.2%	OF	$3,500	OF	$4,200	LF	$8,400
	Team Averages		0.356	0.210	40.0%	10.5%	21.9%	40.3%

Elite Plays – Andrew McCutchen, Giancarlo Stanton, Gary Sanchez, Miguel Andujar, Gleyber Torres, Aaron Hicks

Secondary Plays – Greg Bird, Brett Gardner

Stackability – GREEN

Toronto at Miami – 1:10 PM ET

Stats	wOBA	xwOBA	HC%	HR/9	K%	GB%	Stats	wOBA	HC%
Toronto								Miami
			Sean Reid-Foley						Jeff Brigham
			RIGHT						RIGHT
			Vegas Moneyline						Vegas Over/Under
			MIA-115						8.5
SP vs. Left (2016-17)	0.369	0.428	50.0%	3.18	25.9%	21.4%	SP vs. Left (2016-17)
SP vs. Right (2016-17)	0.557	0.445	47.1%	4.91	10.5%	47.1%	SP vs. Right (2016-17)

Pitcher Grind Down

	Stats	Starts	SIERA	ERA	K%	BB%	GB%	HC%	SC%	aFV	SwS%
Sean Reid-Foley
	FanDuel				DraftKings				FantasyDraft
	Salary:			$5,700	Salary:			$5,300	Salary:		$10,500
	Salary Rank:			25 of 28	Salary Rank:			21 of 28	Salary Rank:		13 of 28

	2018	2	5.21	8.68	19.6%	13.0%	35.5%	48.4%	16.1%	93.8	11.4%
	L14	1	4.45	12.46	25.0%	12.5%	33.3%	33.3%	20.0%	93.7	10.4%

Sean Reid-Foley has made two big league starts, neither of which went well. He is a highly-rated prospect in the Jays system, though, and today he gets a massive park upgrade going into Miami, as well as a positive league shift into the NL. Reid-Foley showed decent strikeout stuff in the minors, but his walk rates have always been fairly high and he has already walked 6 in 9.1 innings in the big leagues. There aren’t many great pitching options on this slate, so I think Reid-Foley makes some sense against the weak Miami offense if you’re looking to save some money.

Quick Breakdown: Reid-Foley is the play if you want to go super cheap with your SP.

Stats	Starts	ERA	K%	BB%	HC%	SC%	aFV
Jeff Brigham
\1/7{background:white; color:white}=.	FanDuel			DraftKings			FantasyDraft
Salary:			Salary:			Salary:
Salary Rank:		of 28	Salary Rank:		of 28	Salary Rank:

Jeff Brigham, the Marlins’ No. 20 prospect, will make his major league debut today. The right-hander is filling in for the injured Pablo Lopez, but he isn’t available in the player pool on the major sites.

Quick Breakdown: Brigham isn’t in the player pool.

Batter Grind Down

Toronto

Brigham posted a 22.2% K-rate at Triple-A this season, and walks haven’t been an issue for him in the upper levels of the minors. He showed fly ball stuff down on the farm, which should work well for him in spacious Marlins Park. The Blue Jays get a massive park downgrade today and they’re not the most appealing option to begin with. You can take a shot on a guy like Justin Smoak here with the platoon advantage, but I’d rather just steer clear of this offense completely today.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

#	Player	Bats	xwOBA	ISO	HC%	BB%	K%	GB%	FD Pos.	FD Sal.	DK Pos.	DK Sal.	FDRFT Pos.	FDRFT Sal.
1	Billy McKinney	LEFT	0.481	0.414	57.1%	14.3%	22.9%	33.3%	OF	$3,200	OF	$3,600	LF	$7,300
2	Lourdes Gurriel	RIGHT	0.349	0.186	30.2%	2.6%	23.1%	39.5%	2B	$2,400	2B/SS	$3,700	2B	$7,600
3	Justin Smoak	SWITCH	0.399	0.241	39.0%	16.0%	26.6%	32.5%	1B	$3,800	1B	$4,200	1B	$8,000
4	Randal Grichuk	RIGHT	0.349	0.270	34.5%	6.1%	22.7%	36.8%	OF	$3,500	OF	$4,300	RF	$8,100
5	Kevin Pillar	RIGHT	0.336	0.167	33.6%	3.8%	19.6%	35.8%	OF	$3,000	OF	$3,600	CF	$7,700
6	Russell Martin	RIGHT	0.330	0.146	30.5%	15.2%	23.7%	49.7%	3B	$2,700	3B/C	$3,000	C	$5,700
7	Danny Jansen	RIGHT	0.300	0.241	25.9%	5.9%	8.8%	29.6%	C	$2,500	C	$3,400	C	$6,700
8	Devon Travis	RIGHT	0.311	0.115	30.4%	5.5%	20.9%	54.8%	2B	$2,600	2B	$3,300	2B	$6,700
9	Sean Reid-Foley	RIGHT							P	$5,700	P	$5,300	P	$10,500
	Team Averages		0.357	0.223	35.2%	8.7%	21.0%	39.0%

Elite Plays – None

Secondary Plays – Justin Smoak, Kendrys Morales

Stackability – RED

Miami

Sean Reid-Foley is squarely in play today, and we know the Marlins aren’t typically an offense worth targeting, especially when they’re at home. J.T. Realmuto is always one of the top catching options, but his price is way too high. Derek Dietrich is the best left-handed bat in the lineup, but he’s rarely a guy worth prioritizing. If Lewis Brinson draws a favorable lineup spot, he’s a viable punt if you need to save some money. Otherwise, the Marlins can be avoided once again.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

#	Player	Bats	xwOBA	ISO	HC%	BB%	K%	GB%	FD Pos.	FD Sal.	DK Pos.	DK Sal.	FDRFT Pos.	FDRFT Sal.
1	JT Riddle	LEFT	0.311	0.167	33.1%	6.9%	19.8%	47.9%	SS	$2,300	SS	$3,700	SS	$7,400
2	Lewis Brinson	RIGHT	0.283	0.143	41.8%	3.7%	32.4%	53.4%	OF	$2,000	OF	$2,900	CF	$5,900
3	J.T. Realmuto	RIGHT	0.371	0.215	39.4%	6.8%	17.8%	41.9%	C	$3,600	C	$4,800	C	$8,900
4	Brian Anderson	RIGHT	0.349	0.117	38.5%	7.2%	17.5%	53.6%	3B	$3,200	3B/OF	$4,200	IF/OF	$8,500
5	Martin Prado	RIGHT	0.281	0.065	28.7%	4.3%	20.2%	47.5%	3B	$2,200	3B	$2,900	3B	$5,900
6	Austin Dean	RIGHT	0.381	0.200	47.8%	3.2%	22.6%	43.5%	OF	$3,000	OF	$3,600	LF	$7,500
7	Miguel Rojas	RIGHT	0.293	0.105	28.4%	3.6%	14.0%	52.3%	SS	$2,100	3B/SS	$3,400	SS	$6,400
8	Magneuris Sierra	LEFT	0.158	0.014	20.0%	0.0%	25.7%	58.7%	OF	$2,000	OF	$3,100	CF	$6,000
9	Jeff Brigham	RIGHT											N/A	N/A
	Team Averages		0.303	0.128	34.7%	4.5%	21.3%	49.9%

Elite Plays – J.T. Realmuto

Secondary Plays – Derek Dietrich, Lewis Brinson

Stackability – RED

Chicago Cubs at Philadelphia – 1:35 PM ET

Stats	wOBA	xwOBA	HC%	HR/9	K%	GB%	Stats	wOBA	xwOBA	HC%	HR/9	K%	GB%
Chicago Cubs								Philadelphia
			Jon Lester							Aaron Nola
			LEFT							RIGHT
			Vegas Moneyline							Vegas Over/Under
			PHI-145							8.5
SP vs. Left (2016-17)	0.368	0.381	36.0%	1.91	20.7%	37.5%	SP vs. Left (2016-17)	0.236	0.269	24.8%	0.43	26.5%	49.5%
SP vs. Right (2016-17)	0.314	0.355	31.8%	1.21	18.0%	36.5%	SP vs. Right (2016-17)	0.243	0.256	23.4%	0.39	25.1%	50.8%

Pitcher Grind Down

	Stats	Starts	SIERA	ERA	K%	BB%	GB%	HC%	SC%	aFV	SwS%
Jon Lester
	FanDuel				DraftKings				FantasyDraft
	Salary:			$7,800	Salary:			$9,500	Salary:		$18,600
	Salary Rank:			10 of 28	Salary Rank:			6 of 28	Salary Rank:		2 of 28
	2017	32	4.07	4.33	23.6%	7.9%	46.2%	28.1%	21.4%	91.1	11.0%
	2018	27	4.74	3.67	18.6%	8.8%	36.7%	32.7%	16.3%	91.0	8.4%
	L14	3	4.21	2.04	20.3%	5.8%	34.0%	15.7%	23.5%	91.1	9.4%

Jon Lester has been better of late, but his numbers still look largely fraudulent. Lester’s respectable 3.76 ERA is belied by his 4.74 SIERA, and his strikeout rate (18.6%) and ground ball rate (36.7%) have both fallen off a cliff this season. His walk rate is also up near 9%, and he’s allowed 23 homers in 27 starts. Lester does draw a matchup against the high-strikeout Phillies today, but I think Lester has been walking a tightrope all year and he’s way too expensive given his diminished numbers this season.

Quick Breakdown: Lester is a large-field GPP flier for me, even on a weak pitching slate.

	Stats	Starts	SIERA	ERA	K%	BB%	GB%	HC%	SC%	aFV	SwS%
Aaron Nola
	FanDuel				DraftKings				FantasyDraft
	Salary:			$11,000	Salary:			$12,800	Salary:		$24,600
	Salary Rank:			1 of 28	Salary Rank:			1 of 28	Salary Rank:		1 of 28
	2017	27	3.60	3.54	26.6%	7.1%	49.8%	29.7%	21.6%	92.0	10.8%
	2018	27	3.49	2.10	25.8%	6.8%	50.2%	24.0%	22.3%	92.4	12.0%
	L14	3	2.48	0.82	34.2%	4.9%	46.8%	18.4%	18.4%	92.5	15.8%

Aaron Nola is the most expensive pitcher on the slate by a huge margin. The right-hander has a solid 25.8% strikeout rate this season, and his soft contact rate (22.3%) is impressively almost as high as his hard contact rate (24%). His 3.48 SIERA is over a run higher than his 2.10 ERA, but both numbers are stellar. Nola also has kept the ball on the ground at a 50.2% rate. He checks just about every box, but today he gets a tough matchup at home against the Cubs. Chicago has the ninth-lowest K-rate this season against right-handed pitching, and they have the sixth-highest wOBA. I think you can definitely find a way to squeeze Nola into your lineups, but the matchup isn’t great and he’s super expensive. I think you can probably get away with cheaper pitching in cash games, but Nola is great for GPPs.

Quick Breakdown: Nola is an elite option today if you want to pay all the way up.

Batter Grind Down

Chicago Cubs

Nola keeps the ball on the ground and doesn’t allow many home runs. Citizens Bank Park is good for home runs, but picking on Nola isn’t something I want to be doing. Daniel Murphy is nice and cheap if you want a guy that will likely hit leadoff, but otherwise the Cubs are tournament-only in my eyes.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

#	Player	Bats	xwOBA	ISO	HC%	BB%	K%	GB%	FD Pos.	FD Sal.	DK Pos.	DK Sal.	FDRFT Pos.	FDRFT Sal.
1	Daniel Murphy	LEFT	0.398	0.193	27.8%	6.9%	6.3%	33.8%	2B	$3,800	1B/2B	$3,800	2B	$7,400
2	Javier Baez	RIGHT	0.339	0.275	36.6%	3.3%	26.0%	46.3%	SS	$3,900	2B/SS	$4,800	2B	$8,900
3	Anthony Rizzo	LEFT	0.410	0.233	36.4%	12.0%	9.8%	37.4%	1B	$4,200	1B	$4,800	1B	$9,000
4	Ben Zobrist	SWITCH	0.365	0.179	35.5%	13.1%	13.4%	44.2%	OF	$3,000	2B/OF	$3,800	IF/OF	$7,700
5	Kris Bryant	RIGHT	0.356	0.140	30.1%	11.1%	20.1%	39.2%	3B	$4,000	3B	$4,500	IF/OF	$8,900
6	Willson Contreras	RIGHT	0.298	0.138	29.4%	7.3%	21.2%	52.0%	C	$2,800	C	$3,300	IF/OF	$6,600
7	Kyle Schwarber	LEFT	0.375	0.270	42.1%	14.7%	25.3%	40.6%	OF	$3,400	OF	$3,900	IF/OF	$7,700
8	Jon Lester	LEFT	0.281	0.081	21.2%	0.0%	23.3%	70.4%	P	$7,800	P	$9,500	P	$18,600
9	Albert Almora	RIGHT	0.263	0.100	29.0%	5.4%	20.0%	50.7%	OF	$2,300	OF	$3,100	CF	$5,600
	Team Averages		0.343	0.179	32.0%	8.2%	18.4%	46.1%

Elite Plays – None

Secondary Plays – Daniel Murphy, Anthony Rizzo, Kris Bryant

Stackability – ORANGE / RED

Philadelphia

Lester has been a lefty with a wide split over the course of his career, and I think he’s vulnerable considering his numbers suggest he’s in decline. I wouldn’t necessarily be all-in on the Phils against him today, but guys like Rhys Hoskins and Wilson Ramos stand out if you have some money to spend. Jose Bautista is also nice and affordable with some power upside. Ditto for Maikel Franco. Hoskins would be the only guy firmly on my radar in cash games, but I love the upside of a Phillies stack in tournaments.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. LH Pitching)

#	Player	Bats	xwOBA	ISO	HC%	BB%	K%	GB%	FD Pos.	FD Sal.	DK Pos.	DK Sal.	FDRFT Pos.	FDRFT Sal.
1	Roman Quinn	SWITCH	0.248	0.294	14.3%	0.0%	17.6%	42.9%	OF	$2,800	OF	$4,400	CF	$8,600
2	Rhys Hoskins	RIGHT	0.362	0.147	26.7%	21.3%	17.3%	28.0%	OF	$3,600	OF	$4,500	IF/OF	$9,100
3	Cesar Hernandez	SWITCH	0.338	0.062	29.4%	14.0%	18.0%	54.6%	2B	$3,000	2B	$4,000	2B	$7,700
4	Wilson Ramos	RIGHT	0.420	0.263	44.2%	4.0%	19.0%	46.8%	C	$3,700	C	$4,700	C	$9,400
5	Carlos Santana	SWITCH	0.360	0.200	34.8%	11.5%	10.1%	46.1%	1B	$3,300	1B	$4,100	1B	$8,200
6	Jose Bautista	RIGHT	0.350	0.185	40.7%	20.0%	25.7%	38.9%	OF	$2,900	3B/OF	$3,600	IF/OF	$7,300
7	Maikel Franco	RIGHT	0.355	0.153	34.5%	9.1%	11.8%	40.2%	3B	$3,100	3B	$3,800	3B	$7,600
8	Scott Kingery	RIGHT	0.253	0.126	29.4%	5.5%	32.7%	28.4%	SS	$2,100	SS	$3,300	SS	$6,700
9	Aaron Nola	RIGHT	0.106	0.000	14.3%	0.0%	36.4%	60.0%	P	$11,000	P	$12,800	P	$24,600
	Team Averages		0.310	0.159	29.8%	9.5%	21.0%	42.9%

Elite Plays – Rhys Hoskins, Wilson Ramos

Secondary Plays – Jose Bautista, Maikel Franco, Asdrubal Cabrera, Cesar Hernandez

Stackability – YELLOW

Milwaukee at Washington – 1:35 PM ET

Stats	wOBA	xwOBA	HC%	HR/9	K%	GB%	Stats	wOBA	xwOBA	HC%	HR/9	K%	GB%
Milwaukee								Washington
			Junior Guerra							Jefry Rodriguez
			RIGHT							RIGHT
			Vegas Moneyline							Vegas Over/Under
			WAS-100							10.0
SP vs. Left (2016-17)	0.347	0.344	38.4%	1.48	21.4%	40.3%	SP vs. Left (2016-17)	0.415	0.433	40.0%	1.84	7.3%	43.6%
SP vs. Right (2016-17)	0.326	0.325	38.7%	0.97	22.1%	44.4%	SP vs. Right (2016-17)	0.263	0.279	23.1%	0.86	24.4%	41.7%

Pitcher Grind Down

	Stats	Starts	SIERA	ERA	K%	BB%	GB%	HC%	SC%	aFV	SwS%
Junior Guerra
	FanDuel				DraftKings				FantasyDraft
	Salary:			$6,300	Salary:			$7,000	Salary:		$13,600
	Salary Rank:			19 of 28	Salary Rank:			14 of 28	Salary Rank:		8 of 28
	2017	14	5.23	5.12	21.3%	13.7%	33.5%	33.5%	18.5%	91.9	10.9%
	2018	25	4.37	4.09	21.7%	9.2%	42.3%	38.5%	16.1%	93.2	10.5%
	L14	3	3.98	12.19	18.0%	6.6%	53.3%	21.7%	13.0%	93.3	14.9%

Junior Guerra has a 4.09 ERA on the year, but his 4.36 SIERA is more average. The right-hander has a 21.7% strikeout rate along with a high walk rate (9.2%) and a high hard-hit rate (38.5%). Guerra has also shown a tendency to get blown up on occasion, and today he gets to face a talented Nationals offense on the road. There are certain spots in which playing Guerra makes sense, but he doesn’t check enough boxes to be worth serious consideration today.

Quick Breakdown: Avoid Guerra in D.C.

	Stats	Starts	SIERA	ERA	K%	BB%	GB%	HC%	SC%	aFV	SwS%
Jefry Rodriguez
	FanDuel				DraftKings				FantasyDraft
	Salary:			$6,000	Salary:			$6,100	Salary:		$12,200
	Salary Rank:			22 of 28	Salary Rank:			18 of 28	Salary Rank:		11 of 28

	2018	6	5.45	4.54	16.8%	12.9%	42.7%	31.8%	18.7%	95.3	9.2%
	L14	2	6.36	1.64	13.3%	15.6%	46.7%	25.0%	12.5%	95.4	6.9%

We only have an 8-game big league sample when it comes to Jefry Rodriguez on the year. In that span, the rookie has posted a mediocre 16.8% K-rate and a gross walk rate just under 13%. His 5.44 SIERA is also almost a full run higher than his ERA. Rodriguez has put up a couple of decent outings, but today he draws a tough matchup with a Brewers offense with power up-and-down the lineup. All things considered, I have much more interest in taking some Brewers bats here than I do in rostering Rodriguez against them.

Quick Breakdown: Rodriguez is an easy fade today.

Batter Grind Down

Milwaukee

Rodriguez has yielded a massive .415 wOBA on the season against left-handed hitters, albeit in a limited sample. He has also allowed a hard contact rate over 40% against lefties compared to a 23.1% mark against righties. A Brewers stack is in play today in all formats, and I think you can roster hitters of either handedness. Jesus Aguilar looks destined to hit a dong today, while Mike Moustakas, Christian Yelich, Ryan Braun, Travis Shaw and Lorenzo Cain are all strong plays. Curtis Granderson and Eric Thames also have upside if one of them cracks the lineup. This game should have no shortage of offense, and I prefer the Milwaukee side as a stack.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

#	Player	Bats	xwOBA	ISO	HC%	BB%	K%	GB%	FD Pos.	FD Sal.	DK Pos.	DK Sal.	FDRFT Pos.	FDRFT Sal.
1	Lorenzo Cain	RIGHT	0.330	0.095	35.9%	11.9%	17.2%	61.1%	OF	$3,700	OF	$4,500	CF	$9,100
2	Christian Yelich	LEFT	0.405	0.242	48.4%	9.5%	24.1%	52.9%	OF	$4,700	OF	$5,900	CF	$11,200
3	Jesus Aguilar	RIGHT	0.384	0.275	45.2%	9.6%	27.0%	32.2%	1B	$4,100	1B	$4,700	1B	$9,400
4	Travis Shaw	LEFT	0.395	0.285	41.0%	12.6%	16.6%	33.3%	2B	$3,800	2B/3B	$4,400	3B	$8,000
5	Ryan Braun	RIGHT	0.328	0.170	34.1%	4.6%	21.8%	48.5%	OF	$2,900	1B/OF	$4,000	LF	$7,600
6	Mike Moustakas	LEFT	0.366	0.239	44.9%	9.3%	17.0%	30.8%	3B	$4,000	3B	$4,300	3B	$8,600
7	Erik Kratz	RIGHT	0.291	0.101	49.4%	1.7%	18.1%	44.3%	C	$2,200	C	$3,100	C	$5,600
8	Orlando Arcia	RIGHT	0.234	0.070	27.5%	3.6%	29.3%	55.1%	SS	$2,000	SS	$2,800	SS	$5,600
9	Junior Guerra	RIGHT	0.098	0.091	12.5%	0.0%	33.3%	57.1%	P	$6,300	P	$7,000	P	$13,600
	Team Averages		0.315	0.174	37.7%	7.0%	22.7%	46.1%

Elite Plays – Jesus Aguilar, Lorenzo Cain, Christian Yelich, Mike Moustakas, Travis Shaw, Ryan Braun

Secondary Plays – Curtis Granderson, Eric Thames

Stackability – GREEN

Washington

Junior Guerra is another right-hander that has struggled with lefties. Guerra has allowed a career .323 wOBA against LHBs, including a .347 mark so far this season. Bryce Harper and Juan Soto happen to be a couple of pretty good lefties, so feel free to play them if you can afford them in the outfield. Guerra has also allowed a .317 wOBA to right-handed hitters, so Anthony Rendon, Trea Turner and Ryan Zimmerman are also in play. Adam Eaton is priced up to where I’d only really have interest in him as a part of a stack. The Nationals don’t look as good as the Brewers on this slate, but I do like them quite a bit.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

#	Player	Bats	xwOBA	ISO	HC%	BB%	K%	GB%	FD Pos.	FD Sal.	DK Pos.	DK Sal.	FDRFT Pos.	FDRFT Sal.
1	Adam Eaton	LEFT	0.367	0.124	36.8%	9.2%	15.9%	44.6%	OF	$3,500	OF	$4,800	RF	$8,900
2	Trea Turner	RIGHT	0.313	0.134	30.1%	7.9%	19.9%	51.8%	SS	$3,600	SS	$4,900	IF/OF	$9,000
3	Bryce Harper	LEFT	0.392	0.274	42.4%	16.8%	25.0%	36.7%	OF	$4,300	OF	$5,000	RF	$9,800
4	Anthony Rendon	RIGHT	0.380	0.194	36.4%	8.0%	13.7%	36.5%	3B	$4,200	3B	$4,600	3B	$9,200
5	Juan Soto	LEFT	0.372	0.200	34.7%	18.7%	19.1%	51.8%	OF	$3,900	OF	$4,900	LF	$8,700
6	Ryan Zimmerman	RIGHT	0.386	0.230	42.0%	6.1%	20.0%	47.9%	1B	$3,300	1B	$4,200	1B	$8,200
7	Matt Wieters	SWITCH	0.302	0.142	32.8%	7.3%	13.9%	39.4%	C	$2,100	C	$3,300	C	$6,300
8	Wilmer Difo	SWITCH	0.292	0.131	22.3%	7.5%	16.5%	41.7%	2B	$2,500	2B/3B	$3,600	2B	$7,200
9	Jefry Rodriguez	RIGHT	0.049	0.000	0.0%	0.0%	42.9%	100.0%	P	$6,000	P	$6,100	P	$12,200
	Team Averages		0.317	0.159	30.8%	9.1%	20.8%	50.0%

Elite Plays – Bryce Harper, Juan Soto, Anthony Rendon

Secondary Plays – Trea Turner, Ryan Zimmerman, Adam Eaton

Stackability – GREEN

Boston at Chicago White Sox – 2:10 PM ET

Stats	wOBA	xwOBA	HC%	HR/9	K%	GB%	Stats	wOBA	xwOBA	HC%	HR/9	K%	GB%
Boston								Chicago White Sox
			Brian Johnson							James Shields
			LEFT							RIGHT
			Vegas Moneyline							Vegas Over/Under
			BOS-160							9.5
SP vs. Left (2016-17)	0.287	0.257	26.6%	0.77	25.0%	36.5%	SP vs. Left (2016-17)	0.298	0.355	31.8%	1.29	19.1%	36.7%
SP vs. Right (2016-17)	0.341	0.360	33.7%	1.55	19.2%	38.2%	SP vs. Right (2016-17)	0.341	0.357	35.7%	1.47	16.8%	33.5%

Pitcher Grind Down

	Stats	Starts	SIERA	ERA	K%	BB%	GB%	HC%	SC%	aFV	SwS%
Brian Johnson
	FanDuel				DraftKings				FantasyDraft
	Salary:			$5,800	Salary:			$8,100	Salary:		$15,800
	Salary Rank:			24 of 28	Salary Rank:			10 of 28	Salary Rank:		5 of 28
	2017	5	4.89	4.33	17.4%	6.6%	35.9%	35.9%	26.1%	87.3	7.8%
	2018	11	4.24	4.02	20.7%	7.7%	37.8%	32.0%	19.3%	88.5	8.3%
	L14	3	5.37	4.40	12.9%	6.5%	36.7%	32.7%	14.3%	88.7	4.8%

Brian Johnson hasn’t been anything special for the Red Sox since cracking the rotation. The lefty has a 4.24 SIERA along with a 20.7% strikeout rate on the season in 33 games, including 11 starts. The hard contact rate of 32% against him isn’t egregious, and today he’ll probably garner some ownership against a weak White Sox offense that was just torched by Eduardo Rodriguez last night. I would have serious interest here if he were cheap, but Johnson is priced up over $8,000 on DraftKings. I’d be much more inclined to roster him over on FanDuel, where he’s south of $6,000. The matchup is good enough to where you can consider Johnson today, but the price tag likely has me off of him on DK.

Quick Breakdown: Johnson is an appealing cheap option on FanDuel, but he’s too expensive for me on DraftKings.

	Stats	Starts	SIERA	ERA	K%	BB%	GB%	HC%	SC%	aFV	SwS%
James Shields
	FanDuel				DraftKings				FantasyDraft
	Salary:			$6,200	Salary:			$6,300	Salary:		$12,600
	Salary Rank:			20 of 28	Salary Rank:			16 of 28	Salary Rank:		10 of 28
	2017	21	4.94	5.23	20.0%	10.3%	38.2%	33.3%	19.3%	90.0	10.2%
	2018	28	4.90	4.54	18.0%	8.9%	35.1%	33.8%	15.6%	89.4	10.4%
	L14	3	5.16	5.59	15.9%	8.5%	33.3%	37.7%	16.4%	89.8	9.7%

James Shields has been annoyingly effective this season, but there’s nothing in his numbers to suggest he’s really pitched all that well. The right-hander has a middling 18% strikeout rate and a bloated walk rate nearing 9%. His 4.90 SIERA is bordering on awful, and he’s a fly ball pitcher that has already allowed 27 homers in 29 appearances. Today he faces the loaded Red Sox, so you know what to do.

Quick Breakdown: Shields is the easiest fade on the board.

Batter Grind Down

Boston

Stacking against Shields hasn’t worked as often as it has in previous seasons, but his numbers still aren’t very good. The Red Sox do happen to be very good, so I think you suck it up and go back to the well here. Mookie Betts and J.D. Martinez both look excellent here, and it’s easy to pair them together if you go cheap with your pitching. Mitch Moreland and Andrew Benintendi are your top lefties, while Jackie Bradley could be a nice way to differentiate your Boston stack. Xander Bogaerts is a strong play, while Eduardo Nunez and Ian Kinsler are some of the cheaper Red Sox.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

#	Player	Bats	xwOBA	ISO	HC%	BB%	K%	GB%	FD Pos.	FD Sal.	DK Pos.	DK Sal.	FDRFT Pos.	FDRFT Sal.
1	Mookie Betts	RIGHT	0.444	0.266	44.5%	11.3%	14.4%	33.6%	OF	$5,100	OF	$6,000	RF	$11,400
2	Andrew Benintendi	LEFT	0.402	0.199	29.9%	12.8%	14.0%	38.0%	OF	$4,300	OF	$5,400	LF	$10,800
3	Mitch Moreland	LEFT	0.420	0.228	37.4%	10.3%	19.9%	41.0%	1B	$3,200	1B	$4,300	1B	$8,500
4	J.D. Martinez	RIGHT	0.460	0.349	47.0%	11.1%	22.4%	44.4%	OF	$5,000	OF	$5,700	RF	$10,000
5	Xander Bogaerts	RIGHT	0.385	0.266	37.9%	6.9%	16.3%	47.0%	SS	$4,000	SS	$4,700	SS	$9,300
6	Eduardo Nunez	RIGHT	0.275	0.135	26.1%	2.2%	15.2%	50.0%	3B	$2,500	2B/3B	$4,000	2B	$7,200
7	Ian Kinsler	RIGHT	0.334	0.185	31.8%	8.4%	10.6%	38.4%	2B	$2,900	2B	$4,000	2B	$7,300
8	Sandy Leon	SWITCH	0.261	0.125	26.6%	3.4%	25.7%	42.0%	C	$2,000	C	$2,700	C	$5,500
9	Jackie Bradley	LEFT	0.378	0.191	41.1%	9.7%	22.7%	40.4%	OF	$3,000	OF	$4,100	CF	$8,300
	Team Averages		0.373	0.216	35.8%	8.5%	17.9%	41.6%

Elite Plays – Mookie Betts, J.D. Martinez, Xander Bogaerts, Andrew Benintendi, Mitch Moreland

Secondary Plays – Eduardo Nunez, Ian Kinsler

Stackability – GREEN

Chicago White Sox

Brian Johnson is a lefty with a wide split that has allowed 13 dingers on the season, including 11 to right-handed hitters. The White Sox offense looks pretty bad these days, but a righty like Tim Anderson or Avisail Garcia makes plenty of sense here. Garcia left last night’s game, so keep an eye on that. Matt Davidson always carries big power upside, but he’s also a candidate to strike out 4 times. He’s GPP-only for me, as usual. You can pick your spots with some White Sox here considering they’re fairly cheap.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. LH Pitching)

#	Player	Bats	xwOBA	ISO	HC%	BB%	K%	GB%	FD Pos.	FD Sal.	DK Pos.	DK Sal.	FDRFT Pos.	FDRFT Sal.
1	Tim Anderson	RIGHT	0.315	0.171	34.0%	5.1%	20.3%	41.7%	SS	$2,600	SS	$4,100	SS	$8,100
2	Nick Delmonico	LEFT	0.290	0.182	35.0%	15.0%	32.5%	35.0%	OF	$2,800	OF	$3,500	IF/OF	$6,400
3	Avisail Garcia	RIGHT	0.377	0.246	55.3%	4.4%	26.5%	57.4%	OF	$2,800	OF	$4,200	RF	$8,300
4	Matt Davidson	RIGHT	0.375	0.271	48.2%	13.1%	29.3%	44.6%	1B	$3,100	1B/3B	$4,100	3B	$8,400
5	Yoan Moncada	SWITCH	0.239	0.113	33.8%	9.9%	33.6%	50.7%	2B	$3,200	2B	$4,100	2B	$8,500
6	Ryan LaMarre	RIGHT	0.307	0.102	38.9%	3.8%	28.3%	42.9%	OF	$2,300	OF	$3,400	CF	$6,600
7	Yolmer Sanchez	SWITCH	0.268	0.038	25.3%	8.5%	26.5%	58.9%	3B	$3,000	3B	$3,900	3B	$7,600
8	Kevan Smith	RIGHT	0.327	0.161	23.3%	5.7%	5.7%	73.3%	C	$2,000	C	$2,900	C	$5,900
9	Adam Engel	RIGHT	0.233	0.094	24.0%	2.9%	22.5%	40.0%	OF	$2,000	OF	$3,300	CF	$6,500
	Team Averages		0.303	0.153	35.3%	7.6%	25.0%	49.4%

Elite Plays – Tim Anderson, Avisail Garcia

Secondary Plays – Matt Davidson

Stackability – ORANGE / YELLOW

Note: Unless noted, all statistics in the Grind Down are from the 2018 season.

MLB Grind Down: Sunday, September 2nd

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Stackability Rating System:

Implied Run Totals

Ballpark Ratings

Detroit at NY Yankees – 1:05 PM ET

Pitcher Grind Down

Batter Grind Down

Detroit

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

NY Yankees

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. LH Pitching)

Toronto at Miami – 1:10 PM ET

Pitcher Grind Down

Batter Grind Down

Toronto

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

Miami

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

Chicago Cubs at Philadelphia – 1:35 PM ET

Pitcher Grind Down

Batter Grind Down

Chicago Cubs

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

Philadelphia

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. LH Pitching)

Milwaukee at Washington – 1:35 PM ET

Pitcher Grind Down

Batter Grind Down

Milwaukee

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

Washington

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

Boston at Chicago White Sox – 2:10 PM ET

Pitcher Grind Down

Batter Grind Down

Boston

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

Chicago White Sox

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. LH Pitching)

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