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MLB Grind Down: Thursday, August 23rd

by Derek Farnsworth (Notorious) Last Updated 2018-08-23 17:38:55

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The RotoGrinders MLB Grind Down will give you an in-depth analysis into the upcoming MLB schedule. This article will break down the numbers for every single game and give you analysis on which trends you can exploit. While matchups are a major factor in daily fantasy baseball, there are plenty of other factors to consider such as injuries, weather, and salaries.

The analysis should point you in the right direction, but it is still up to you to decipher the information and make your own selections. No sport has more variance than baseball. The best choice is not always the right choice but following the trends will win you money over time.

Note: As always, if you want to try a new DFS site, be sure to click through a RotoGrinders link and use our DraftKings promo code, FanDuel promo code, and FantasyDraft promo code to receive the best perks in the industry.

Stackability Rating System:

GREEN – A viable full stack in cash games and GPPs.
YELLOW – A viable mini-stack in cash games and full stack in GPPs.
ORANGE – A viable stack in large field GPPs.
RED – Not a recommended stack for cash games or GPPs.

Implied Run Totals

Ballpark Ratings

Cleveland at Boston – 1:05 PM ET

Cleveland Boston
clevelandmlb Adam Plutko bostonmlb David Price
RIGHT LEFT
Vegas Moneyline Vegas Over/Under
BOS-180 9.5
Stats wOBA xwOBA HC% HR/9 K% GB% Stats wOBA xwOBA HC% HR/9 K% GB%
SP vs. Left (2016-17) 0.434 0.421 42.5% 3.60 11.7% 29.2% SP vs. Left (2016-17) 0.313 0.318 30.8% 1.19 23.2% 43.8%
SP vs. Right (2016-17) 0.243 0.276 32.5% 1.26 23.3% 27.3% SP vs. Right (2016-17) 0.306 0.336 32.5% 1.21 24.5% 40.2%

Pitcher Grind Down

Adam Plutko
adam-plutko-300x200 FanDuel DraftKings FantasyDraft
Salary: $5,900 Salary: $4,100 Salary: $8,400
Salary Rank: 16 of 18 Salary Rank: 16 of 18 Salary Rank: 17 of 18
Stats Starts SIERA ERA K% BB% GB% HC% SC% aFV SwS%
2018 7 4.90 4.62 17.8% 6.1% 28.2% 37.3% 18.0% 91.1 7.9%
L14 1 3.94 3.86 24.0% 4.0% 29.4% 38.9% 16.7% 90.8 7.2%

There are four early games on the schedule today, but only the first four are included in the early slates on FanDuel and DraftKings. We start with the Indians and Red Sox, who have two of the best offenses in baseball. I’ve been avoiding the likes of Carlos Carrasco and Corey Kluber in this series, so I will certainly be avoiding Adam Plutko. In seven starts this season, he has a 4.90 SIERA with a strikeout rate of only 18%. Meanwhile, the projected lineup for the Red Sox has an average xwOBA of .375 with a strikeout rate of only 18% against right-handed pitching.

Quick Breakdown: Avoid Plutko in all formats.

David Price
david-price-300x200 FanDuel DraftKings FantasyDraft
Salary: $9,400 Salary: $7,000 Salary: $14,100
Salary Rank: 4 of 18 Salary Rank: 10 of 18 Salary Rank: 10 of 18
Stats Starts SIERA ERA K% BB% GB% HC% SC% aFV SwS%
2017 11 4.05 3.38 24.0% 7.6% 39.9% 32.9% 20.7% 94.3 11.7%
2018 24 3.84 3.69 24.3% 7.0% 40.8% 32.2% 19.3% 92.7 9.6%
L14 2 2.45 1.38 34.6% 3.9% 40.0% 22.6% 25.8% 92.8 13.2%

Price has had a solid season overall and comes into today’s start in solid form. Over his last two starts, he has a 2.45 SIERA with a strikeout rate of 35% and a walk rate of only 4%. He’s done a nice job of limiting hard contact this season and we’ve seen his swinging strike rate slowly increase in recent weeks. He’s certainly a pitcher to keep an eye on moving forward, but he’s a tough sell against the Indians. Their projected lineup has a .333 xwOBA with a 37% hard contact rate against left-handed pitching.

Quick Breakdown: There are better options for both cash games and tournaments.

Batter Grind Down

Cleveland

The Indians are playing in a hitter-friendly ballpark and have an offense that is capable of succeeding in any matchup. With that said, their hitters are priced up across the industry and they draw a tough matchup against David Price. In addition to having solid recent form, Price has held both left and right-handed hitters under a .340 xwOBA this season. There is always a case to be made for Francisco Lindor (.418 xwOBA), Jose Ramirez (.357 xwOBA) and Edwin Encarnacion (.375 xwOBA) when facing a southpaw, but they are secondary options in this slate.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. LH Pitching)

# Player Bats xwOBA ISO HC% BB% K% GB% FD Pos. FD Sal. DK Pos. DK Sal. FDRFT Pos. FDRFT Sal.
1 Francisco Lindor SWITCH 0.418 0.208 42.3% 11.8% 10.4% 46.4% SS $4,200 SS $5,100 SS $9,600
2 Michael Brantley LEFT 0.322 0.105 26.2% 4.1% 9.0% 52.4% OF $4,200 OF $4,600 LF $9,300
3 Jose Ramirez SWITCH 0.357 0.211 37.1% 6.5% 8.7% 38.3% 3B $5,000 3B $5,700 IF/OF $10,000
4 Edwin Encarnacion RIGHT 0.375 0.154 44.9% 17.3% 20.0% 27.5% 1B $3,400 1B $4,700 1B $9,100
5 Brandon Guyer RIGHT 0.364 0.259 33.3% 10.4% 15.6% 34.8% OF $2,000 OF $3,000 RF $5,900
6 Yonder Alonso LEFT 0.327 0.146 32.0% 7.1% 25.9% 33.3% 1B $3,000 1B $4,000 1B $7,200
7 Roberto Perez RIGHT 0.308 0.045 50.0% 14.8% 33.3% 61.5% C $2,000 C $2,800 C $5,500
8 Jason Kipnis LEFT 0.310 0.151 34.6% 10.8% 21.7% 26.3% 2B $2,700 2B $3,500 2B $6,800
9 Greg Allen SWITCH 0.219 0.000 28.6% 0.0% 36.4% 47.4% OF $2,900 OF $4,000 CF $7,500
Team Averages 0.333 0.142 36.6% 9.2% 20.1% 40.9%

Elite Plays – None

Secondary Plays – Francisco Lindor, Jose Ramirez, Edwin Encarnacion

Stackability – ORANGE

Boston

The Red Sox are one of the top offenses to target in the early slate. More often than not, they produce big fantasy outings at home and they draw an exploitable matchup against Adam Plutko. Even though he has much better splits against righties than he does against lefties, we can feel good about targeting batters from both sides of the plate. Mookie Betts, Andrew Benintendi, Mitch Moreland, J.D. Martinez, and Xander Bogaerts all boast a .385+ xwOBA against right-handed pitching this season.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

# Player Bats xwOBA ISO HC% BB% K% GB% FD Pos. FD Sal. DK Pos. DK Sal. FDRFT Pos. FDRFT Sal.
1 Mookie Betts RIGHT 0.454 0.281 45.5% 11.0% 13.7% 33.2% OF $4,600 OF $5,800 RF $10,300
2 Andrew Benintendi LEFT 0.408 0.202 30.5% 12.8% 13.6% 37.7% OF $4,100 OF $5,600 LF $10,200
3 Mitch Moreland LEFT 0.415 0.229 36.4% 9.9% 20.4% 41.1% 1B $3,200 1B $4,500 1B $9,000
4 J.D. Martinez RIGHT 0.466 0.369 46.6% 10.8% 21.9% 44.3% OF $4,800 OF $5,700 RF $10,200
5 Xander Bogaerts RIGHT 0.385 0.260 38.8% 7.5% 16.4% 48.2% SS $3,800 SS $5,200 SS $9,400
6 Ian Kinsler RIGHT 0.339 0.199 33.1% 9.0% 10.0% 37.2% 2B $2,600 2B $4,200 2B $8,400
7 Eduardo Nunez RIGHT 0.267 0.125 25.5% 2.3% 15.3% 49.8% 3B $2,200 2B/3B $4,000 2B $7,400
8 Sandy Leon SWITCH 0.267 0.126 28.2% 3.5% 25.9% 43.8% C $2,100 C $2,800 C $5,700
9 Jackie Bradley LEFT 0.376 0.196 40.3% 10.0% 22.7% 40.5% OF $2,600 OF $4,300 CF $8,000
Team Averages 0.375 0.221 36.1% 8.5% 17.8% 41.8%

Elite Plays – Mookie Betts, Andrew Benintendi, Mitch Moreland, J.D. Martinez, Xander Bogaerts

Secondary Plays – Ian Kinsler, Jackie Bradley

Stackability – GREEN

Philadelphia at Washington – 1:05 PM ET

Philadelphia Washington
philadelphiamlb Aaron Nola washingtonmlb Max Scherzer
RIGHT RIGHT
Vegas Moneyline Vegas Over/Under
WAS-163 7.0
Stats wOBA xwOBA HC% HR/9 K% GB% Stats wOBA xwOBA HC% HR/9 K% GB%
SP vs. Left (2016-17) 0.253 0.276 24.6% 0.48 24.3% 48.7% SP vs. Left (2016-17) 0.258 0.253 27.8% 0.81 31.9% 37.0%
SP vs. Right (2016-17) 0.232 0.253 24.2% 0.42 26.3% 52.1% SP vs. Right (2016-17) 0.230 0.268 33.9% 0.95 37.3% 35.6%

Pitcher Grind Down

Aaron Nola
aaron-nola-300x200 FanDuel DraftKings FantasyDraft
Salary: $10,400 Salary: $9,100 Salary: $17,900
Salary Rank: 3 of 18 Salary Rank: 5 of 18 Salary Rank: 4 of 18
Stats Starts SIERA ERA K% BB% GB% HC% SC% aFV SwS%
2017 27 3.60 3.54 26.6% 7.1% 49.8% 29.7% 21.6% 92.0 10.8%
2018 25 3.55 2.24 25.4% 7.0% 50.5% 24.4% 22.5% 92.3 11.8%
L14 2 2.88 0.69 31.4% 7.8% 55.2% 17.2% 24.1% 92.5 15.3%

Nola has the exact type of skill set that I love to target for DFS. He has an above-average strikeout rate (25%) and an above-average ground ball rate (51%). He has good control and he induces a lot of soft and medium contact. Even though I’m not a fan of his matchup against the Nationals (projected lineup has a .340 xwOBA with a strikeout rate of only 17%), he makes an intriguing leverage play off of Max Scherzer in tournaments.

Quick Breakdown: Nola is viable in tournaments, especially on DraftKings ($9,100).

Max Scherzer
max-scherzer-300x200 FanDuel DraftKings FantasyDraft
Salary: $12,200 Salary: $11,500 Salary: $22,400
Salary Rank: 1 of 18 Salary Rank: 2 of 18 Salary Rank: 2 of 18
Stats Starts SIERA ERA K% BB% GB% HC% SC% aFV SwS%
2017 31 2.98 2.51 34.4% 7.1% 36.5% 26.5% 19.5% 94.1 15.5%
2018 26 2.71 2.11 34.5% 6.0% 36.3% 30.6% 24.8% 94.4 16.2%
L14 3 2.65 0.45 32.9% 4.1% 37.0% 26.1% 28.3% 95.2 14.0%

Scherzer is one of the best pitchers in baseball and typically when he takes the mound, I make an effort to force him into my lineups. In 26 starts this season, he owns a 2.71 SIERA with a strikeout rate of 35% and a soft contact rate of 25%. He throws a ton of strikes, which allows him to pitch deep into games. The Phillies do have some firepower offensively, but their projected lineup has an average strikeout rate of 24% against right-handed pitching.

Quick Breakdown: Scherzer is the top pitching option of the slate and his price is much cheaper than usual (on DraftKings anyway).

Batter Grind Down

Philadelphia

The Phillies have the worst matchup of the slate. In addition to having elite strikeout and soft contact rates, Max Scherzer has held both left and right-handed hitters under a .270 xwOBA this season. While they might be able to scrounge up a run or two, we shouldn’t bank on it.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

# Player Bats xwOBA ISO HC% BB% K% GB% FD Pos. FD Sal. DK Pos. DK Sal. FDRFT Pos. FDRFT Sal.
1 Cesar Hernandez SWITCH 0.317 0.120 22.7% 14.1% 21.8% 41.3% 2B $2,400 2B $3,800 2B $7,500
2 Rhys Hoskins RIGHT 0.381 0.275 37.5% 11.4% 25.0% 29.8% OF $3,400 OF $4,100 IF/OF $8,000
3 Carlos Santana SWITCH 0.365 0.172 34.4% 19.3% 16.2% 39.4% 1B $2,700 1B $3,600 1B $7,700
4 Wilson Ramos RIGHT 0.358 0.170 43.5% 7.6% 20.3% 55.3% C $2,600 C $3,900 C $7,400
5 Asdrubal Cabrera SWITCH 0.361 0.239 43.8% 7.4% 22.0% 39.3% SS $2,600 2B/SS $3,600 SS $7,600
6 Nick Williams LEFT 0.376 0.217 33.5% 7.7% 23.2% 41.9% OF $2,300 OF $3,600 RF $7,400
7 Maikel Franco RIGHT 0.326 0.216 26.9% 4.9% 14.0% 51.4% 3B $2,700 3B $3,300 3B $6,300
8 Odubel Herrera LEFT 0.299 0.185 25.5% 7.1% 20.4% 40.5% OF $2,300 OF $3,300 IF/OF $6,800
9 Aaron Nola RIGHT 0.108 0.027 5.0% 2.4% 50.0% 66.7% P $10,400 P $9,100 P $17,900
Team Averages 0.321 0.180 30.3% 9.1% 23.7% 45.1%

Elite Plays – None

Secondary Plays – None

Stackability – RED

Washington

The Nationals have quite a difficult matchup themselves. They are sizable favorites, but that has more to do with Max Scherzer being on the mound than their matchup. Aaron Nola has above-average strikeout and ground ball rates and has held both left and right-handed hitters under .280 xwOBA this season. With the Red Sox in such a good spot and a potential shootout in Detroit, I plan to have very little exposure to the Nationals’ offense.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

# Player Bats xwOBA ISO HC% BB% K% GB% FD Pos. FD Sal. DK Pos. DK Sal. FDRFT Pos. FDRFT Sal.
1 Adam Eaton LEFT 0.371 0.118 38.6% 8.5% 15.6% 43.7% OF $3,600 OF $3,900 CF $7,500
2 Trea Turner RIGHT 0.319 0.142 31.2% 7.7% 19.7% 51.9% SS $3,700 SS $4,200 IF/OF $8,400
3 Bryce Harper LEFT 0.401 0.290 42.5% 17.5% 24.9% 35.6% OF $4,700 OF $5,000 RF $9,700
4 Anthony Rendon RIGHT 0.384 0.191 36.6% 8.1% 14.0% 36.7% 3B $3,900 3B $3,900 3B $7,800
5 Juan Soto LEFT 0.379 0.219 34.8% 19.2% 17.6% 51.9% OF $4,000 OF $4,400 LF $8,100
6 Ryan Zimmerman RIGHT 0.392 0.195 43.0% 5.8% 20.1% 47.0% 1B $2,900 1B $4,200 1B $8,400
7 Matt Wieters SWITCH 0.298 0.143 33.3% 8.4% 12.6% 38.2% C $2,400 C $3,000 C $5,600
8 Wilmer Difo SWITCH 0.288 0.104 19.7% 7.5% 16.5% 41.8% 2B $2,200 2B/3B $2,800 2B $5,500
9 Max Scherzer RIGHT 0.232 0.049 18.9% 0.0% 15.2% 69.7% P $12,200 P $11,500 P $22,400
Team Averages 0.340 0.161 33.2% 9.2% 17.4% 46.3%

Elite Plays – None

Secondary Plays – Bryce Harper, Anthony Rendon

Stackability – ORANGE

Chicago White Sox at Detroit – 1:10 PM ET

Chicago White Sox Detroit
whitesoxmlb James Shields detroitmlb Matt Boyd
RIGHT LEFT
Vegas Moneyline Vegas Over/Under
DET-120 9.0
Stats wOBA xwOBA HC% HR/9 K% GB% Stats wOBA xwOBA HC% HR/9 K% GB%
SP vs. Left (2016-17) 0.299 0.359 31.0% 1.38 18.9% 37.3% SP vs. Left (2016-17) 0.299 0.277 43.8% 1.39 25.4% 32.6%
SP vs. Right (2016-17) 0.325 0.338 34.3% 1.14 17.5% 34.6% SP vs. Right (2016-17) 0.283 0.295 34.8% 0.96 20.7% 30.8%

Pitcher Grind Down

James Shields
james-shields-300x200 FanDuel DraftKings FantasyDraft
Salary: $7,500 Salary: $5,000 Salary: $10,200
Salary Rank: 11 of 18 Salary Rank: 15 of 18 Salary Rank: 14 of 18
Stats Starts SIERA ERA K% BB% GB% HC% SC% aFV SwS%
2017 21 4.94 5.23 20.0% 10.3% 38.2% 33.3% 19.3% 90.0 10.2%
2018 26 4.85 4.39 18.2% 8.9% 36.0% 32.6% 15.7% 89.4 10.5%
L14 2 4.64 3.21 16.4% 3.6% 33.3% 25.0% 25.0% 89.6 11.8%

Shields is a pitcher that I’ve had a lot of exposure to this season. While his numbers don’t look great on paper, he eats up innings and typically picks up close to a strikeout per inning in the process. He draws a favorable matchup today against the Tigers, whose projected lineup has an average xwOBA of .295 with a strikeout rate of 23% against right-handed pitching. He always gives up a few runs in the process, but he’s been incredibly productive from a fantasy standpoint.

Quick Breakdown: At a price of $5,000 on DraftKings, Shields is firmly in the mix as an SP2.

Matt Boyd
matt-boyd-300x200 FanDuel DraftKings FantasyDraft
Salary: $7,700 Salary: $6,000 Salary: $12,100
Salary Rank: 10 of 18 Salary Rank: 13 of 18 Salary Rank: 13 of 18
Stats Starts SIERA ERA K% BB% GB% HC% SC% aFV SwS%
2017 25 4.94 5.27 18.2% 8.8% 38.1% 34.6% 21.0% 92.0 10.0%
2018 24 4.33 4.27 21.8% 7.4% 31.2% 36.9% 20.5% 89.9 10.0%
L14 3 4.63 4.58 20.3% 2.9% 21.6% 35.3% 23.5% 91.6 9.9%

Boyd has quietly had a nice season for the Tigers. In 24 starts, he owns a 4.33 SIERA with a strikeout rate of 22% and a walk rate of 7%. He’s a fly-ball pitcher that gives up a lot of hard contact, but he draws an elite matchup today against the White Sox. Chicago’s projected lineup has an average xwOBA of .304 with a strikeout rate of 25% against left-handed pitching. He’ll likely end up being the chalky SP2 to pair with Max Scherzer.

Quick Breakdown: Boyd is an elite SP2 in all formats.

Batter Grind Down

Chicago White Sox

Even though I have interest in both of these pitchers, I’m not expecting this to be a low scoring game. Both of these starters are hittable. As mentioned above, Matt Boyd is a fly-ball pitcher that has given up a lot of hard contact this season. Avisail Garcia and Matt Davidson both have excellent power numbers against left-handed pitching and Tim Anderson always seems to produce when batting in that leadoff spot.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. LH Pitching)

# Player Bats xwOBA ISO HC% BB% K% GB% FD Pos. FD Sal. DK Pos. DK Sal. FDRFT Pos. FDRFT Sal.
1 Tim Anderson RIGHT 0.317 0.183 34.7% 4.7% 21.1% 41.1% SS $3,000 SS $4,300 SS $8,600
2 Avisail Garcia RIGHT 0.405 0.286 54.8% 5.1% 23.7% 59.5% OF $2,500 OF $3,700 RF $7,300
3 Matt Davidson RIGHT 0.369 0.263 46.9% 14.4% 30.0% 46.9% 1B $2,900 1B/3B $4,200 3B $8,200
4 Daniel Palka LEFT 0.339 0.143 36.4% 9.3% 29.6% 60.6% OF $2,800 OF $3,800 RF $7,400
5 Yoan Moncada SWITCH 0.231 0.092 33.3% 10.4% 34.4% 51.5% 2B $3,200 2B $3,800 2B $7,500
6 Kevan Smith RIGHT 0.280 0.069 21.4% 6.3% 6.3% 75.0% C $2,000 C $2,800 C $5,700
7 Yolmer Sanchez SWITCH 0.252 0.039 24.7% 6.3% 27.7% 60.6% 3B $2,800 3B $3,600 3B $7,300
8 Ryan LaMarre RIGHT 0.302 0.114 41.9% 4.3% 29.8% 43.3% OF $2,000 OF $2,800 CF $5,900
9 Adam Engel RIGHT 0.237 0.088 25.0% 3.1% 21.9% 41.8% OF $2,200 OF $3,300 CF $6,300
Team Averages 0.304 0.142 35.5% 7.1% 24.9% 53.4%

Elite Plays – None

Secondary Plays – Tim Anderson, Avisail Garcia, Matt Davidson

Stackability – ORANGE / YELLOW

Detroit

I always like to see James Shields on the mound because more often than not, we can target him as a cheap SP2 and a few hitters against him as well. On the season, he has allowed .359 xwOBA to lefties and a .338 xwOBA to righties. Nick Castellanos and Niko Goodrum are borderline elite plays at their respective positions, while Jeimer Candelario and Jose Iglesias offer decent value.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

# Player Bats xwOBA ISO HC% BB% K% GB% FD Pos. FD Sal. DK Pos. DK Sal. FDRFT Pos. FDRFT Sal.
1 Jeimer Candelario SWITCH 0.292 0.171 34.7% 11.2% 24.7% 39.9% 3B $3,400 3B $3,800 3B $7,700
2 Jose Iglesias RIGHT 0.271 0.106 25.8% 4.3% 11.0% 45.9% SS $3,100 SS $3,400 SS $6,600
3 Nick Castellanos RIGHT 0.375 0.192 47.8% 6.4% 23.9% 35.6% OF $3,600 OF $4,300 IF/OF $8,200
4 Niko Goodrum SWITCH 0.324 0.234 39.0% 9.2% 28.9% 39.0% 2B $2,900 2B/OF $3,900 2B $7,300
5 Victor Martinez SWITCH 0.337 0.086 38.6% 7.5% 9.2% 39.0% C $2,600 1B $3,300 1B $6,700
6 Jim Adduci LEFT 0.302 0.156 41.7% 3.7% 22.2% 44.1% OF $2,400 1B $3,300 LF $6,300
7 Mikie Mahtook RIGHT 0.264 0.114 25.0% 9.0% 26.0% 46.0% OF $2,100 OF $3,200 CF $6,500
8 James McCann RIGHT 0.284 0.092 38.3% 5.9% 23.4% 39.6% C $2,200 C $2,700 C $5,500
9 Mike Gerber LEFT 0.206 0.030 26.3% 8.1% 40.5% 26.3% OF $2,000 OF $3,600 RF $7,600
Team Averages 0.295 0.131 35.2% 7.3% 23.3% 39.5%

Elite Plays – Nick Castellanos, Niko Goodrum

Secondary Plays – Jeimer Candelario, Jose Iglesias

Stackability – ORANGE / YELLOW

San Francisco at NY Mets – 1:10 PM ET

San Francisco NY Mets
sanfranciscomlb Madison Bumgarner nymetsmlb Jacob deGrom
LEFT RIGHT
Vegas Moneyline Vegas Over/Under
NYM-145 6.5
Stats wOBA xwOBA HC% HR/9 K% GB% Stats wOBA xwOBA HC% HR/9 K% GB%
SP vs. Left (2016-17) 0.315 0.254 31.6% 0.00 27.1% 43.2% SP vs. Left (2016-17) 0.276 0.266 24.8% 0.55 30.1% 42.4%
SP vs. Right (2016-17) 0.300 0.333 40.0% 1.00 18.6% 41.7% SP vs. Right (2016-17) 0.205 0.243 31.5% 0.31 32.2% 46.7%

Pitcher Grind Down

Madison Bumgarner
madison-bumgarner-300x200 FanDuel DraftKings FantasyDraft
Salary: $9,000 Salary: $7,500 Salary: $14,600
Salary Rank: 6 of 18 Salary Rank: 9 of 18 Salary Rank: 9 of 18
Stats Starts SIERA ERA K% BB% GB% HC% SC% aFV SwS%
2017 17 3.94 3.32 22.4% 4.4% 40.8% 35.0% 16.9% 91.0 10.3%
2018 14 4.58 3.05 20.0% 9.3% 42.0% 38.8% 19.8% 91.0 9.4%
L14 3 4.51 3.32 20.7% 8.5% 34.5% 43.1% 17.2% 90.8 9.4%

Bumgarner has a low ERA this season, but his advanced statistics suggest some regression moving forward. In 14 starts, he has a 4.58 SIERA with a strikeout rate of only 20%. The good news is that he is facing a Mets’ team that has been awful against southpaws this season. Their projected lineup for today’s game has an average xwOBA of .291 with a strikeout rate of 24% against left-handed pitching. The bad news is that he’s pitching on the road as a large underdog.

Quick Breakdown: At his price point, Bumgarner is viable as an SP2 on DraftKings.

Jacob deGrom
jacob-degrom-300x200 FanDuel DraftKings FantasyDraft
Salary: $12,000 Salary: $11,900 Salary: $23,100
Salary Rank: 2 of 18 Salary Rank: 1 of 18 Salary Rank: 1 of 18
Stats Starts SIERA ERA K% BB% GB% HC% SC% aFV SwS%
2017 31 3.44 3.53 28.9% 7.1% 45.3% 31.9% 21.3% 95.2 13.3%
2018 25 2.89 1.71 31.2% 5.5% 44.5% 28.1% 24.4% 95.7 14.9%
L14 3 2.08 0.83 38.8% 3.8% 40.0% 17.4% 19.6% 96.4 13.7%

DeGrom is right there with Max Scherzer as one of the top pitching options of the slate. Many don’t consider him in that elite tier of pitchers, but he certainly deserves to be there. In 25 starts this season, he has a 2.89 SIERA with a strikeout rate of 31% and a soft contact rate of 24%. The Giants have some decent hitters at the top of their lineup, but there are plenty of strikeouts to be had in this offense. I do prefer Scherzer over deGrom, but the latter will likely be lower owned.

Quick Breakdown: DeGrom is a strong play in all formats, I just prefer Scherzer heads up.

Batter Grind Down

San Francisco

The Giants draw one of the worst matchups of the slate. In addition to having elite strikeout and soft contact rates, Jacob deGrom has held both left and right-handed hitters under a .270 xwOBA this season. There aren’t many hitters to choose from in the early slate, but I see the Giants as a full fade.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

# Player Bats xwOBA ISO HC% BB% K% GB% FD Pos. FD Sal. DK Pos. DK Sal. FDRFT Pos. FDRFT Sal.
1 Andrew McCutchen RIGHT 0.355 0.152 45.5% 12.5% 22.0% 38.2% OF $3,000 OF $3,500 RF $6,400
2 Joe Panik LEFT 0.371 0.119 31.5% 7.3% 7.3% 40.9% 2B $2,300 2B $2,900 2B $5,900
3 Buster Posey RIGHT 0.340 0.082 33.8% 8.1% 12.4% 48.6% C $2,400 C $3,300 C $6,600
4 Brandon Belt LEFT 0.388 0.233 45.6% 11.8% 22.4% 19.1% 1B $2,800 1B $3,400 IF/OF $6,300
5 Evan Longoria RIGHT 0.301 0.143 41.4% 3.3% 23.6% 40.2% 3B $2,600 3B $3,400 3B $6,900
6 Brandon Crawford LEFT 0.320 0.137 37.0% 9.8% 21.2% 43.7% SS $2,400 SS $3,000 SS $5,900
7 Steven Duggar LEFT 0.247 0.141 34.6% 6.0% 27.7% 40.0% OF $2,400 OF $3,100 CF $5,800
8 Alen Hanson SWITCH 0.253 0.219 27.0% 3.4% 19.2% 41.4% OF $2,200 2B/OF $3,400 2B $6,900
9 Madison Bumgarner LEFT 0.230 0.000 55.6% 6.7% 33.3% 22.2% P $9,000 P $7,500 P $14,600
Team Averages 0.312 0.136 39.1% 7.7% 21.0% 37.1%

Elite Plays – None

Secondary Plays – None

Stackability – RED

NY Mets

I expect that I am higher on the Mets than most today. Madison Bumgarner has not been great on the road this season and he has allowed a .333 xwOBA with a 40% hard contact rate to right-handed hitters. The Mets haven’t been great as a whole against southpaws, but Wilmer Flores, Jose Bautista, and Devin Mesoraco all bat from the right side and all own a .330+ xwOBA against southpaws this season.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. LH Pitching)

# Player Bats xwOBA ISO HC% BB% K% GB% FD Pos. FD Sal. DK Pos. DK Sal. FDRFT Pos. FDRFT Sal.
1 Amed Rosario RIGHT 0.314 0.158 31.0% 5.9% 23.8% 47.1% SS $2,800 SS $3,900 SS $7,500
2 Austin Jackson RIGHT 0.274 0.021 30.7% 7.8% 31.1% 53.2% OF $2,800 OF $3,600 CF $7,700
3 Wilmer Flores RIGHT 0.334 0.106 29.9% 7.8% 7.8% 33.0% 1B $3,000 1B $4,100 3B $8,100
4 Michael Conforto LEFT 0.335 0.179 35.5% 9.1% 31.8% 53.9% OF $3,400 OF $3,900 LF $7,300
5 Todd Frazier RIGHT 0.291 0.111 32.1% 9.9% 24.7% 50.9% 3B $2,700 3B $4,100 3B $8,200
6 Jose Bautista RIGHT 0.349 0.208 38.3% 21.5% 26.9% 38.3% OF $2,900 3B/OF $3,900 IF/OF $7,600
7 Jose Reyes SWITCH 0.294 0.191 34.2% 9.6% 11.5% 37.5% 3B $2,300 3B/SS $3,600 SS $7,500
8 Devin Mesoraco RIGHT 0.332 0.160 33.3% 14.8% 18.0% 46.2% C $2,500 C $3,100 C $5,700
9 Jacob deGrom RIGHT 0.098 0.000 16.7% 4.5% 40.9% 60.0% P $12,000 P $11,900 P $23,100
Team Averages 0.291 0.126 31.3% 10.1% 24.1% 46.7%

Elite Plays – Wilmer Flores

Secondary Plays – Amed Rosario, Jose Bautista, Devin Mesoraco

Stackability – ORANGE / YELLOW

San Diego at Colorado – 3:10 PM ET

San Diego Colorado
sandiegomlb Joey Lucchesi coloradomlb Kyle Freeland
LEFT LEFT
Vegas Moneyline Vegas Over/Under
COL-165 10.0
Stats wOBA xwOBA HC% HR/9 K% GB% Stats wOBA xwOBA HC% HR/9 K% GB%
SP vs. Left (2016-17) 0.284 0.273 25.5% 0.00 27.1% 65.3% SP vs. Left (2016-17) 0.247 0.273 26.4% 0.50 28.7% 43.2%
SP vs. Right (2016-17) 0.331 0.345 43.6% 1.83 24.7% 43.3% SP vs. Right (2016-17) 0.309 0.322 32.4% 0.93 17.8% 49.4%

Pitcher Grind Down

Joey Lucchesi
joey-lucchesi-300x200 FanDuel DraftKings FantasyDraft
Salary: $6,500 Salary: $5,100 Salary: $10,100
Salary Rank: 14 of 18 Salary Rank: 14 of 18 Salary Rank: 15 of 18
Stats Starts SIERA ERA K% BB% GB% HC% SC% aFV SwS%
2018 19 3.82 3.79 25.2% 8.7% 47.6% 40.0% 19.2% 90.3 9.7%
L14 2 4.05 4.50 27.3% 13.6% 62.5% 42.3% 19.2% 90.8 9.2%

The game in Coors Field is not featured in the early slates, but if you want exposure to this game, you can play the all-day slate or the showdown slate. Lucchesi has fared well in his first 19 major league starts, posting a 3.82 SIERA with a strikeout rate of 25% and a ground ball rate of 48%. He has the tools to pitch well here, but this is no place for a young pitcher to come out and dominate. He comes into the game as a large underdog with the total set at 10.0 runs.

Quick Breakdown: Lucchesi is an easy fade in the all-day and the showdown slates.

Kyle Freeland
kyle-freeland-300x200 FanDuel DraftKings FantasyDraft
Salary: $8,700 Salary: $6,700 Salary: $12,900
Salary Rank: 7 of 18 Salary Rank: 11 of 18 Salary Rank: 11 of 18
Stats Starts SIERA ERA K% BB% GB% HC% SC% aFV SwS%
2017 28 4.93 4.10 15.6% 9.2% 53.9% 32.0% 24.3% 92.0 7.5%
2018 25 4.40 2.96 20.4% 8.8% 48.1% 31.2% 20.5% 91.3 8.7%
L14 3 3.70 1.35 30.8% 11.5% 45.2% 27.3% 18.2% 92.2 11.2%

Freeland has an ERA under three, but his peripheral statistics suggest some regression. It’s not that he’s a bad pitcher by any means, but a 4.40 SIERA with a strikeout rate of 20% are fairly mediocre. As crazy as it sounds, Freeland has actually pitched better at home than he has on the road this season. He draws a favorable matchup against the Padres, whose projected lineup has an average xwOBA of .292 with a strikeout rate of 26% against left-handed pitching.

Quick Breakdown: Freeland is a fade in the all-day slate, but he’s the preferred target in the showdown slate.

Batter Grind Down

San Diego

The Padres see the biggest ballpark boost possible, as they go from Petco Park to Coors Field. Their matchup against Kyle Freeland isn’t all that enticing, but he has allowed a .322 xwOBA and a 32% hard contact rate to right-handed hitters. The Padres do strikeout at a high rate, but there are three righties in particular that stand out in this matchup. Jose Pirela (.353 xwOBA), Hunter Renfroe (.234 ISO), and Franmil Reyes (.323 ISO) all have good numbers against southpaws this season.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. LH Pitching)

# Player Bats xwOBA ISO HC% BB% K% GB% FD Pos. FD Sal. DK Pos. DK Sal. FDRFT Pos. FDRFT Sal.
1 Jose Pirela RIGHT 0.353 0.136 33.7% 10.5% 11.3% 48.1% 2B $3,000 2B/OF $3,700 IF/OF $7,200
2 Freddy Galvis SWITCH 0.282 0.181 37.0% 4.4% 14.8% 46.7% SS $3,500 SS $3,900 SS $7,600
3 Eric Hosmer LEFT 0.326 0.122 33.9% 7.6% 19.4% 63.7% 1B $3,900 1B $4,300 1B $8,100
4 Hunter Renfroe RIGHT 0.346 0.234 48.0% 11.0% 19.3% 37.3% OF $3,400 OF $4,800 RF $8,600
5 Austin Hedges RIGHT 0.267 0.140 37.1% 8.1% 35.5% 37.1% C $3,300 C $3,700 C $7,400
6 Franmil Reyes RIGHT 0.358 0.323 47.4% 11.4% 34.3% 52.6% OF $3,100 OF $3,000 RF $6,000
7 Manuel Margot RIGHT 0.296 0.144 44.0% 3.4% 18.1% 40.0% OF $3,300 OF $3,800 CF $7,500
8 Cory Spangenberg LEFT 0.196 0.184 17.9% 2.4% 29.3% 52.2% 2B $3,100 2B/3B $4,100 3B $8,400
9 Joey Lucchesi LEFT 0.200 0.000 0.0% 25.0% 50.0% 100.0% P $6,500 P $5,100 P $10,100
Team Averages 0.292 0.163 33.2% 9.3% 25.8% 53.1%

Elite Plays – Jose Pirela, Hunter Renfroe (GPP), Franmil Reyes (GPP)

Secondary Plays – Hunter Renfroe (Cash), Franmil Reyes (Cash), Freddy Galvis, Austin Hedges

Stackability – YELLOW

Colorado

The Rockies are playing at home against a young southpaw. While Joey Lucchesi has pitched well this season, I will take my chances with the Rockies’ offense in this one. He has allowed a .345 xwOBA and a 44% hard contact rate to right-handed hitters this season. DJ LeMahieu, Nolan Arenado, Trevor Story, and Ian Desmond are all elite plays and that includes both the all-day and the showdown slates. To complete the stack, Charlie Blackmon and Chris Iannetta are both viable as the fifth piece on DraftKings.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. LH Pitching)

# Player Bats xwOBA ISO HC% BB% K% GB% FD Pos. FD Sal. DK Pos. DK Sal. FDRFT Pos. FDRFT Sal.
1 Charlie Blackmon LEFT 0.349 0.156 33.6% 6.2% 19.0% 45.1% OF $4,300 OF $5,300 CF $9,800
2 DJ LeMahieu RIGHT 0.384 0.183 40.2% 6.8% 8.3% 39.3% 2B $3,600 2B $5,000 2B $9,500
3 Nolan Arenado RIGHT 0.444 0.434 51.8% 16.0% 15.3% 36.6% 3B $4,600 3B $5,400 3B $10,500
4 Trevor Story RIGHT 0.365 0.314 49.0% 8.9% 24.1% 28.8% SS $4,500 SS $5,700 SS $10,200
5 Carlos Gonzalez LEFT 0.310 0.178 30.6% 5.3% 19.3% 60.0% OF $3,500 OF $4,200 RF $8,400
6 Ian Desmond RIGHT 0.335 0.266 41.3% 6.6% 20.4% 61.5% 1B $3,400 1B $4,600 LF $8,900
7 David Dahl LEFT 0.263 0.077 33.3% 0.0% 38.5% 25.0% OF $3,400 OF $4,700 LF $9,000
8 Chris Iannetta RIGHT 0.368 0.088 39.7% 13.0% 22.2% 44.1% C $3,200 C $4,000 C $7,200
9 Kyle Freeland LEFT 0.070 0.000 7.7% 0.0% 48.0% 71.4% P $8,700 P $6,700 P $12,900
Team Averages 0.321 0.188 36.4% 7.0% 23.9% 45.8%

Elite Plays – DJ LeMahieu, Nolan Arenado, Trevor Story, Ian Desmond

Secondary Plays – Charlie Blackmon, Chris Iannetta

Stackability – GREEN

Note: Unless noted, all statistics in the Grind Down are from the 2018 season.

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About the Author

Notorious
Derek Farnsworth (Notorious)

Derek Farnsworth (aka Notorious) is a lead RotoGrinders Expert and one of the most recognizable names and faces in all of DFS. Before joining the RotoGrinders team, Derek received a Master’s Degree from the University of Utah. When he’s not busy providing content, he’s dominating the DFS industry as evidenced by his consistent top rankings in several sports and multiple Live Final appearances. Noto provides expert NBA, NFL, MLB, and PGA analysis for RotoGrinders Premium members on a daily basis and has also been nominated for five different Fantasy Sports Writer’s Association (FSWA) awards. Follow Noto on X – @RG_Notorious